4/3/04 Jorge Luis Borges: “Democracy Is An Abuse Of Statistics”
Kelvin Throop: “If people behaved like governments, you’d call the cops.”
Margaret Thatcher: “We should back the workers, not the shirkers.”
Edward Langley: “What this country needs is more unemployed politicians.”
Yesterday was a disappointing day for our country. I realize few are willing to pay the price to pursue the truth. There is even a greater revelation—when the truth is uncovered, millions turn from it. The United States went to war over weapons of mass destruction that existed- not in March 2003 but in March 1991. In the past year, 600 American soldiers have died, thousands have been injured, and many wait in hospitals for medical treatment. I have received many nasty (greatly understated) phone calls and emails complaining about my writings of one year ago, and the suggestion that the administration was not telling the truth about WMD. The point is not that I was right. There are some who see a statement of vindication as a form of gloating. Maybe those thoughts better reflect images closer to the observation deck. The core of our minds is to search for the truth. The truth can and does have predictive value for the present and future. To turn from the truth is to turn into a loser.
I started by stating that yesterday was a disappointing day for our country. A reader might ask how that could be possible when 308,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were created in March. The disappointment lies in the errors of omission. Just as WMD existed in 1991, the 308,000 were created in March 2004. Unfortunately, that job creation is but a small part of the story. Yesterday, Bush stated “the policies are working.” Let’s take a closer look. There were 182,000 more American workers stated by the BLS as unemployed in March than in February. There were 514,000 discouraged workers in March, the highest monthly number since September 1994. Those workers are not included as unemployed. The 320,000 unemployed Americans who lost their unemployment benefits in March were not included in the unemployment numbers. They were dropped into a black hole. As far as the government statistics indicate, they don’t exist. Nearly one in four unemployed workers has been out of work for more than a half-year. That is the highest level of long-term unemployment in two decades, and the number was greater in March than in February. There were about 4.7 million Americans working part-time in March because they could not find full-time employment, and this number was up from the prior month. Economists point out that the unemployment rate rose to 5.7% in March because an additional 179,000 people entered the workforce and began looking for employment. That 179,000 was dwarfed by the 514,000 discouraged workers and the 320,000 who lost their benefits. The fact is the jobless rate for blacks rose to 10.2% from 9.8%, for whites to 5.1% from 4.9%, and for Hispanics the number was unchanged at 7.4%. You think the policies are working? As Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo Bank, observed “the average duration of unemployment has been lengthening, persuading unemployed workers to accept part-time jobs.”
It is time that Americans began to question the headlines. In March, according to the BLS, the number of Americans employed remained unchanged. According to the BLS, the civilian labor force remained unchanged, and that’s not counting the 514,000 discouraged workers and the 320,000 who lost their unemployment benefits. The hours worked in the month fell. The average workweek fell. Average weekly earnings dropped. Michael Donihue, professor and forecaster at Maine’s Colby College stated “employers don’t feel like they have to pay a lot to keep people on board.”
Yesterday the BLS statistics indicated that total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part-time for economic reasons, as a percentage of the civilian labor force, plus all marginally attached workers was 10.4% in March, up from the prior month’s 10.3%, and unchanged from a year ago. However, this March did not include the 1.1 million unemployed Americans who lost their benefits between 12/21/03 and 3/31/04. In the latest BLS report, almost 76 million Americans were indicated as not in the labor force, up slightly from February and up about 600,000 from January. In other words, the labor participation rate has continued to trend downward. It is the labor participation rate and the unit labor costs the Fed will focus on and not the unemployment rate. Since the end of the recession in November 2001, the labor participation rate has fallen 0.8%, and presently, the rate is at its lowest point since November 2001. In this economic cycle, the labor participation rate has been exceptionally weak. As was pointed out by Haseeb Ahmed of Economy.com, “this marked drop in the labor participation rate compares quite unfavorably with the average 0.3 point increase by the 27th month of the previous five expansions.” The unit labor costs have had the weakest two years in a post-war period. Companies have been able to meet rising demand outside our borders mainly through gains in productivity.
One should further question the need to hire permanent workers. If the hours worked are declining and the benefit costs are rising, there is little incentive to hire full-time employees. In analyzing the net hires in March, a fair percentage were part-timers, about 15,000 were accounted for by supermarket workers returning from a strike, and 71,000 were added construction workers due in part to warmer weather. From experience, we know that many construction workers are laid off during the year as the weather becomes more inclement. The remaining hires were the usual suspects in retail, government, leisure, healthcare, etc. In other words, it marked a continuation of the growth in lower wage-paying jobs. There was one small item for the buyers of tech stocks. March employment in the IT sector dropped by 1,000 jobs. That decline is inconsistent with the forecast for near-term expansion at Nasdaq 100 companies.
There has been one area of the economy helping the employment picture during the Bush years. Since winning a Pentagon contract in 2001 to build the F-35, Lockheed has added more than 5,000 employees to its payroll. The company’s Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Co. division has about 16,300 workers and more than 600 contract workers. Lockheed has about 5,700 workers on the F-16 program. Lockheed is about to reverse its three-year hiring boom. The F-35 joint strike fighter is behind schedule and unable to absorb a large number of jobs. A spokesperson for Lockheed stated “a substantial number of workers will be taken off the F-16 program before midyear.” This will lead to job losses.
Friday, April 02, 2004
4/2/04 The Numbers Game
In a little over two hours the BLS will release their March jobs report. When they revise their February numbers downward, it will no longer be the case that February was the first month in two and a half years where employment was positive compared to the same month in the prior year. The estimate for today is the creation of 140,000+ new jobs and the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.6%. There will be scant mention of the number attempting to enter the labor market in March or the latest labor participation rate. I guarantee that no one else will mention the devastating number of job losses announced in the last two days. Because of huge funding shortfalls, Detroit Public Schools will lay off 900 teachers and 2,300 other employees by July 1. The positions represent 13% of the 23,800 employees in the district, Wayne County’s second-largest employer. In Clay County, Florida auto finance company AmeriCredit shuttered its call center yesterday and 225 employees lost their jobs. The day before Household International shut its Jacksonville call center and put 119 people out of work. Terra Industries cut 65 to 70 jobs. Everyone by now read that Gateway is closing its 188 company-operated retail stores on April 9 and that 2,500 retail positions will be eliminated. DHL Express announced that 1,000 former Airborne Express workers will lose their jobs in Seattle over the next 12 months. Sun Micro will cut 3,300 jobs. Yesterday, the Labor Department reported that the number continuing to receive state jobless benefits rose by 32,000 to 3.06 million in the week ending March 20. Not everyone was so lucky to receive jobless benefits. In Iowa, 8,300 workers lost unemployment benefits in the first three months of 2004. Another 8,800 could lose their benefits over the next three months if benefits are not extended, and that looks improbable at this time.
Yesterday, it was reported that the price of basic raw materials rose a record 5.5% and that February intermediate goods rose 0.9%, the biggest gain in 9 years. There was a piece of news on the inflation front that did not make Wall Street headlines. At Broad and Wall traders have champagne tastes. They ignore the basics, such as, milk. Between now and May 1, the government will adjust milk prices to reflect a worldwide shortage of dairy products. It has been suggested that the price of a gallon of milk is likely to rise by at least 70 cents in Colorado and neighboring states in the next 30 days. Shoppers will also pay more for cheese, ice cream, and other dairy items. Australia and New Zealand, two of the world’s biggest milk-product exporters, have experienced an on-going drought. Colorado is in its fifth year of drought. The statewide snowpack measured just 65% of average yesterday. March was the driest in Denver since 1908. One thing is certain. The rise in dairy prices, particularly milk, will inflate grocery bills. Last year consumers were faced with rising egg prices. The one plus in basics is the falling price of bread due to slack demand.
Donald Kohn: “Some households and firms probably harbor unrealistic expectations about the future based on extrapolations of recent interest rates or trends in asset prices, and they run the risk of experiencing serious difficulties as a result.”
Xu Zhongbo, head of Beijing Metal Consulting: “A lot of projects in Beijing have not got under way as scheduled and steel inventory is building up in the warehouses.” As the Chinese central banks pulls back from lending, growth in that nation has begun to fall sharply. In future quarters the change will be apparent. The sudden shift will be an unpleasant surprise to many sectors of our nation. Economists and Wall Street are not prepared for this eventuality.
Precious metals continue their multi-year rise. Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium advance to new price levels not seen in some time.
Yesterday, the EU boosted tariffs on $4 billion of U.S. products from 5% to 6%. They have vowed to raise the tariffs by one percent a month. As Winston Churchill once said, the U.S. does the right thing after exhausting all other possibilities.
The growth in our GDP has been helped by the auto industry’s high vehicle output. Yesterday GM, Ford, and Chrysler announced a new round of incentives. In the meantime, as profit margins decline, Toyota eats into their market share. The Big Three have three months’ supply of vehicles. Maybe they are attempting to achieve a new stockpiling record. Goodwill Industries could always use the cars.
In a little over two hours the BLS will release their March jobs report. When they revise their February numbers downward, it will no longer be the case that February was the first month in two and a half years where employment was positive compared to the same month in the prior year. The estimate for today is the creation of 140,000+ new jobs and the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.6%. There will be scant mention of the number attempting to enter the labor market in March or the latest labor participation rate. I guarantee that no one else will mention the devastating number of job losses announced in the last two days. Because of huge funding shortfalls, Detroit Public Schools will lay off 900 teachers and 2,300 other employees by July 1. The positions represent 13% of the 23,800 employees in the district, Wayne County’s second-largest employer. In Clay County, Florida auto finance company AmeriCredit shuttered its call center yesterday and 225 employees lost their jobs. The day before Household International shut its Jacksonville call center and put 119 people out of work. Terra Industries cut 65 to 70 jobs. Everyone by now read that Gateway is closing its 188 company-operated retail stores on April 9 and that 2,500 retail positions will be eliminated. DHL Express announced that 1,000 former Airborne Express workers will lose their jobs in Seattle over the next 12 months. Sun Micro will cut 3,300 jobs. Yesterday, the Labor Department reported that the number continuing to receive state jobless benefits rose by 32,000 to 3.06 million in the week ending March 20. Not everyone was so lucky to receive jobless benefits. In Iowa, 8,300 workers lost unemployment benefits in the first three months of 2004. Another 8,800 could lose their benefits over the next three months if benefits are not extended, and that looks improbable at this time.
Yesterday, it was reported that the price of basic raw materials rose a record 5.5% and that February intermediate goods rose 0.9%, the biggest gain in 9 years. There was a piece of news on the inflation front that did not make Wall Street headlines. At Broad and Wall traders have champagne tastes. They ignore the basics, such as, milk. Between now and May 1, the government will adjust milk prices to reflect a worldwide shortage of dairy products. It has been suggested that the price of a gallon of milk is likely to rise by at least 70 cents in Colorado and neighboring states in the next 30 days. Shoppers will also pay more for cheese, ice cream, and other dairy items. Australia and New Zealand, two of the world’s biggest milk-product exporters, have experienced an on-going drought. Colorado is in its fifth year of drought. The statewide snowpack measured just 65% of average yesterday. March was the driest in Denver since 1908. One thing is certain. The rise in dairy prices, particularly milk, will inflate grocery bills. Last year consumers were faced with rising egg prices. The one plus in basics is the falling price of bread due to slack demand.
Donald Kohn: “Some households and firms probably harbor unrealistic expectations about the future based on extrapolations of recent interest rates or trends in asset prices, and they run the risk of experiencing serious difficulties as a result.”
Xu Zhongbo, head of Beijing Metal Consulting: “A lot of projects in Beijing have not got under way as scheduled and steel inventory is building up in the warehouses.” As the Chinese central banks pulls back from lending, growth in that nation has begun to fall sharply. In future quarters the change will be apparent. The sudden shift will be an unpleasant surprise to many sectors of our nation. Economists and Wall Street are not prepared for this eventuality.
Precious metals continue their multi-year rise. Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium advance to new price levels not seen in some time.
Yesterday, the EU boosted tariffs on $4 billion of U.S. products from 5% to 6%. They have vowed to raise the tariffs by one percent a month. As Winston Churchill once said, the U.S. does the right thing after exhausting all other possibilities.
The growth in our GDP has been helped by the auto industry’s high vehicle output. Yesterday GM, Ford, and Chrysler announced a new round of incentives. In the meantime, as profit margins decline, Toyota eats into their market share. The Big Three have three months’ supply of vehicles. Maybe they are attempting to achieve a new stockpiling record. Goodwill Industries could always use the cars.
Thursday, April 01, 2004
4/1/04 Hiring Costs
The number of workers holding jobs approximates 138.3 million. Of that number, about 2.5 million are temporary workers, 15 million are in the retail sector, 14.3 million in manufacturing, and 6.85 million in construction. Although the average hourly earnings rose 1.6% year-on-year in 2003, benefits continue to rise at a significantly higher rate. According to the Labor Department, of the $22.92 per hour paid, on average, to workers, $6.43 per hour was expended on benefits. Health insurance alone cost $1.50 per hour and items comprised by social security, workers’ compensation, etc. another $1.96. Employers must think hard before hiring permanent workers. The added benefits can sting the bottom line. It is no wonder that private and public companies alike look to contract workers, temporary workers, and outsourcing for alternatives. With the average workweek under 34 hours, it is difficult to anticipate much near-term improvement in the labor participation rate.
The Washington State Employment Security Department stated yesterday that a 2003 law reducing to 26 from 30 the number of weeks a person may collect unemployment benefits will take effect April 4.
Wells Fargo Bank issued layoff notices to 84 employees in Oak Harbor, Washington that take effect April 28. The employees work at an operations center that Wells Fargo acquired along with Pacific Northwest Bank last year. Norcross, Georgia-based Novoste, a developer of advanced medical treatments for coronary and vascular diseases, will cut 86 employees or about 40% of its current work force. Radio Flyer, the 87-year-old company that makes red metal wagons for children, will close its Chicago plant and move production to China, eliminating about half of its 90 jobs. Textiles maker Dan River Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Axciom announced cutting 230 jobs.
According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the number of service sector jobs shifted overseas is expected to reach 588,000 by 2005, up from 100,000 in 2000.
Wisconsin’s exports of medical equipment to China increased 60% in 2003 to $155.6 million This was the state’s single-biggest export business to the mainland, state figures show. GE Medical had $700 million in sales in China in 2003 and expects double-digit increases for years to come. It is estimated that 60 million Chinese have disabilities. There are 66,000 hospitals in China.
William Winkenwerder Jr., assistant secretary of defense for health affairs, stated that, through March 13, in the first year of war in Iraq, the military made 18,004 medical evacuations. He told a separate House panel on Feb. 25 that, as of Feb. 5, there were only 11,200 total medical evacuations. Spc. Timothy McMichael, who is on medical hold at Fort Knox, Ky., told the Congressional panel “I can only say that the uniform consensus is one of frustration, disappointment, and anger. I have had soldiers with 15, 20, even 25 years in the military tell me they are disgusted. The Army cannot afford to lose the number of senior non-commissioned officers it is losing every day.”
The NAPM-Chicago stated its manufacturing index dropped to 57.6 in March from 63.6 in February, the largest decline since March 2001. Excluding transportation equipment, orders fell 1.2%. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago stated this region produces 40% of the country’s motor vehicles, 35% of its steel, and approximately 50% of its farm equipment. In March, the survey’s employment index fell to 49.2 from February’s 54.8, a most disappointing result. In addition, the production index and the new orders index both dropped significantly. The Midwest continues to have difficult business conditions. Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial, remarked “this is not the first place we have seen indications the economy is slowing, but it is a report that is widely followed. It underscores the fact this slowdown is pretty wide-spread.”
Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center: “The labor market not only continues to dampen consumers’ present day spirits, but it is also making them less optimistic about the short term outlook.”
Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence: “25 to 30 per cent of the households are ‘job sensitives’- those who have lost a job in the past 12 months or are afraid of losing one in the next 12.”
Starting today, OPEC agreed to reduce oil production quotas by 4.1% or by 1 million barrels to 23.5 million barrels a day. OPEC is the source of approximately one-third of the world’s oil.
The yen rose to a four-high high versus the dollar and traded up to 103.40, the third straight quarterly increase. In March, Japan sold $45.2 billion yen, a sharp slowing from the prior two months. Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki stated “it’s desirable that foreign exchange rates move in a manner reflecting fundamentals of economies.”
Yesterday, J.C. Penney reduced the value of its Eckerd Drug division to $4.37 billion. It has been suggested that the Jean Coutu Group of Canada, current owner of Brooks Pharmacy, would purchase about 1,400 Eckerd locations in the Northeast and CVS the remaining 1,200 Eckerd stores in the Southeast.
The ECB decided to leave its benchmark lending rate at a six-decade low of 2%. With the unemployment rate in the euro region at a three-year high of 8.8% for the past year, a June rate cut of 50 basis points might provide a welcome psychological boost.
The number of workers holding jobs approximates 138.3 million. Of that number, about 2.5 million are temporary workers, 15 million are in the retail sector, 14.3 million in manufacturing, and 6.85 million in construction. Although the average hourly earnings rose 1.6% year-on-year in 2003, benefits continue to rise at a significantly higher rate. According to the Labor Department, of the $22.92 per hour paid, on average, to workers, $6.43 per hour was expended on benefits. Health insurance alone cost $1.50 per hour and items comprised by social security, workers’ compensation, etc. another $1.96. Employers must think hard before hiring permanent workers. The added benefits can sting the bottom line. It is no wonder that private and public companies alike look to contract workers, temporary workers, and outsourcing for alternatives. With the average workweek under 34 hours, it is difficult to anticipate much near-term improvement in the labor participation rate.
The Washington State Employment Security Department stated yesterday that a 2003 law reducing to 26 from 30 the number of weeks a person may collect unemployment benefits will take effect April 4.
Wells Fargo Bank issued layoff notices to 84 employees in Oak Harbor, Washington that take effect April 28. The employees work at an operations center that Wells Fargo acquired along with Pacific Northwest Bank last year. Norcross, Georgia-based Novoste, a developer of advanced medical treatments for coronary and vascular diseases, will cut 86 employees or about 40% of its current work force. Radio Flyer, the 87-year-old company that makes red metal wagons for children, will close its Chicago plant and move production to China, eliminating about half of its 90 jobs. Textiles maker Dan River Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Axciom announced cutting 230 jobs.
According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the number of service sector jobs shifted overseas is expected to reach 588,000 by 2005, up from 100,000 in 2000.
Wisconsin’s exports of medical equipment to China increased 60% in 2003 to $155.6 million This was the state’s single-biggest export business to the mainland, state figures show. GE Medical had $700 million in sales in China in 2003 and expects double-digit increases for years to come. It is estimated that 60 million Chinese have disabilities. There are 66,000 hospitals in China.
William Winkenwerder Jr., assistant secretary of defense for health affairs, stated that, through March 13, in the first year of war in Iraq, the military made 18,004 medical evacuations. He told a separate House panel on Feb. 25 that, as of Feb. 5, there were only 11,200 total medical evacuations. Spc. Timothy McMichael, who is on medical hold at Fort Knox, Ky., told the Congressional panel “I can only say that the uniform consensus is one of frustration, disappointment, and anger. I have had soldiers with 15, 20, even 25 years in the military tell me they are disgusted. The Army cannot afford to lose the number of senior non-commissioned officers it is losing every day.”
The NAPM-Chicago stated its manufacturing index dropped to 57.6 in March from 63.6 in February, the largest decline since March 2001. Excluding transportation equipment, orders fell 1.2%. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago stated this region produces 40% of the country’s motor vehicles, 35% of its steel, and approximately 50% of its farm equipment. In March, the survey’s employment index fell to 49.2 from February’s 54.8, a most disappointing result. In addition, the production index and the new orders index both dropped significantly. The Midwest continues to have difficult business conditions. Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial, remarked “this is not the first place we have seen indications the economy is slowing, but it is a report that is widely followed. It underscores the fact this slowdown is pretty wide-spread.”
Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center: “The labor market not only continues to dampen consumers’ present day spirits, but it is also making them less optimistic about the short term outlook.”
Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence: “25 to 30 per cent of the households are ‘job sensitives’- those who have lost a job in the past 12 months or are afraid of losing one in the next 12.”
Starting today, OPEC agreed to reduce oil production quotas by 4.1% or by 1 million barrels to 23.5 million barrels a day. OPEC is the source of approximately one-third of the world’s oil.
The yen rose to a four-high high versus the dollar and traded up to 103.40, the third straight quarterly increase. In March, Japan sold $45.2 billion yen, a sharp slowing from the prior two months. Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki stated “it’s desirable that foreign exchange rates move in a manner reflecting fundamentals of economies.”
Yesterday, J.C. Penney reduced the value of its Eckerd Drug division to $4.37 billion. It has been suggested that the Jean Coutu Group of Canada, current owner of Brooks Pharmacy, would purchase about 1,400 Eckerd locations in the Northeast and CVS the remaining 1,200 Eckerd stores in the Southeast.
The ECB decided to leave its benchmark lending rate at a six-decade low of 2%. With the unemployment rate in the euro region at a three-year high of 8.8% for the past year, a June rate cut of 50 basis points might provide a welcome psychological boost.
Wednesday, March 31, 2004
3/31/04 Window Dressing And Japan’s Fiscal Year-end
Welcome to the end of the quarter and to the last day of window dressing- hopefully, for some time. I trust all the mutual funds engaged in this activity had a nice time. What a bunch of losers! Today is the fiscal year-end for Japan, and we will undo the hedge created exactly nine months ago. With the aging of the population, you might not remember. We went long the Nikkei and short the Nasdaq. The hotshots thought we were out of our minds. With Passover and Easter right around the corner, we can become consumers with our profits and buy some nice gifts. I think we’ll do a bit of that and keep the largest portion of the profits for a rainy day. It might even rain in Colorado. You can never tell.
In 2003, corporate income taxes dropped to 7.4% of total tax receipts. Something tells me this inequity is not long for this world.
The 447,000 bpd BP refinery in Texas City was hit by an explosion and a fire. It is the third-largest refinery in the United States. Tomorrow OPEC has its meeting. I’m sure it’s only a coincidence that the FBI had recently warned Texas oil refiners of possible terror attacks.
The March Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index reflected the continuation of near-term job worries. The survey certainly was right. Yesterday was not a good day for employment. Johnson Controls announced moving 885 jobs to Mexico. Worldcom continued their layoffs. This time it was 4,000 workers to be cut. Because of Iowa’s budget problems, 2,000 teachers could lose their jobs in that state. EMI announced cutting 1,500 jobs, and will exit manufacturing in Europe and the U.S.
Bill Gates: “Many of the holy grails of computing that have been worked on over the last 30 years will be solved within this 10-year period, with speech being in every device and having a device that’s like a tablet that you just carry around.” Gates is focusing on the power of the servers and their impact on the network not being a limiting factor. I believe servers will not be required for speech recognition. While Gates is headed towards the tablet, in my view the cell phone and the PDA will become your venue for text messaging via speech recognition, and it will arrive in your neighborhood shortly.
The new overtime-pay rules go into effect tomorrow. The U.S. Department of Labor has found another way to screw you—thanks to the efforts of the Administration and the Congress.
The EU told Germany it must scrap a law that protects Volkswagen from hostile takeovers or face court action.
Nissan, Japan’s third largest auto maker, stated it had not set profit forecasts for the coming year, partly due to volatility in the currency markets.
Toyota stated it expected its production of biodegradable plastics to grow into a $38 billion business by 2020 when the company hopes to control two-thirds of the world’s supply.
Elliott Janeway: “When the President is in trouble, the economy is in trouble.”
Bush’s remarks on the economy yesterday at the Fox Cities Performing Art Center in Appleton, Wisconsin: “Some in our Nation’s Capital respond a little differently than I will. They want to increase federal spending dramatically. The problem with that plan is somebody has to pay for it…it’s possible to grow our economy and not have people find new jobs. And that’s the problem we face today for some workers. This is called a period of transition. That’s an economist’s word for things aren’t going too well for you. And I understand that. I understand that people are worried about the job they have.”
Bush wants to blame others for the rise in federal spending. He wants to blame increases in productivity for the loss of jobs. While he’s laying blame, he might as well blame Saddam for not having the WMD. Losers fail to accept responsibility. The words ‘I was wrong’ never touch Bush’s lips.
Starbucks, on the other hand, has outstanding management. They are a credit to their stockholders, their employees, and to the communities they serve. Their global chain of more than 7,600 stores is growing at about 3.5 per day. Their CEO told the annual meeting that this rate would begin to increase probably around midsummer. The company is evaluating dozens of new drinks.
Charles Dow: “The one fact pertaining to all conditions is that they will change.”
Welcome to the end of the quarter and to the last day of window dressing- hopefully, for some time. I trust all the mutual funds engaged in this activity had a nice time. What a bunch of losers! Today is the fiscal year-end for Japan, and we will undo the hedge created exactly nine months ago. With the aging of the population, you might not remember. We went long the Nikkei and short the Nasdaq. The hotshots thought we were out of our minds. With Passover and Easter right around the corner, we can become consumers with our profits and buy some nice gifts. I think we’ll do a bit of that and keep the largest portion of the profits for a rainy day. It might even rain in Colorado. You can never tell.
In 2003, corporate income taxes dropped to 7.4% of total tax receipts. Something tells me this inequity is not long for this world.
The 447,000 bpd BP refinery in Texas City was hit by an explosion and a fire. It is the third-largest refinery in the United States. Tomorrow OPEC has its meeting. I’m sure it’s only a coincidence that the FBI had recently warned Texas oil refiners of possible terror attacks.
The March Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index reflected the continuation of near-term job worries. The survey certainly was right. Yesterday was not a good day for employment. Johnson Controls announced moving 885 jobs to Mexico. Worldcom continued their layoffs. This time it was 4,000 workers to be cut. Because of Iowa’s budget problems, 2,000 teachers could lose their jobs in that state. EMI announced cutting 1,500 jobs, and will exit manufacturing in Europe and the U.S.
Bill Gates: “Many of the holy grails of computing that have been worked on over the last 30 years will be solved within this 10-year period, with speech being in every device and having a device that’s like a tablet that you just carry around.” Gates is focusing on the power of the servers and their impact on the network not being a limiting factor. I believe servers will not be required for speech recognition. While Gates is headed towards the tablet, in my view the cell phone and the PDA will become your venue for text messaging via speech recognition, and it will arrive in your neighborhood shortly.
The new overtime-pay rules go into effect tomorrow. The U.S. Department of Labor has found another way to screw you—thanks to the efforts of the Administration and the Congress.
The EU told Germany it must scrap a law that protects Volkswagen from hostile takeovers or face court action.
Nissan, Japan’s third largest auto maker, stated it had not set profit forecasts for the coming year, partly due to volatility in the currency markets.
Toyota stated it expected its production of biodegradable plastics to grow into a $38 billion business by 2020 when the company hopes to control two-thirds of the world’s supply.
Elliott Janeway: “When the President is in trouble, the economy is in trouble.”
Bush’s remarks on the economy yesterday at the Fox Cities Performing Art Center in Appleton, Wisconsin: “Some in our Nation’s Capital respond a little differently than I will. They want to increase federal spending dramatically. The problem with that plan is somebody has to pay for it…it’s possible to grow our economy and not have people find new jobs. And that’s the problem we face today for some workers. This is called a period of transition. That’s an economist’s word for things aren’t going too well for you. And I understand that. I understand that people are worried about the job they have.”
Bush wants to blame others for the rise in federal spending. He wants to blame increases in productivity for the loss of jobs. While he’s laying blame, he might as well blame Saddam for not having the WMD. Losers fail to accept responsibility. The words ‘I was wrong’ never touch Bush’s lips.
Starbucks, on the other hand, has outstanding management. They are a credit to their stockholders, their employees, and to the communities they serve. Their global chain of more than 7,600 stores is growing at about 3.5 per day. Their CEO told the annual meeting that this rate would begin to increase probably around midsummer. The company is evaluating dozens of new drinks.
Charles Dow: “The one fact pertaining to all conditions is that they will change.”
Tuesday, March 30, 2004
3/30/04 Tomorrow’s Workforce
Mark Marsters is Cigna’s disability claims operations leader. Recently, he spoke at the national Disability Consulting Group Conference. He described tomorrow’s workforce as older, heavier, and unable to retire. Marsters stated “health care will continue to drive costs, a problem that will become even more urgent with the aging workforce. The aging workforce will drive greater incidences of disability. The economy may force companies to push their employees even further to boost productivity, which may in turn result in greater stress-related disability. All these trends will make integration of disability and health care more critical, as chronic disease management will become increasingly important along with programs that focus on lowering incidence and coordinating health, stress management and disability benefits.” It should be noted that, by 2008, 40% of the labor force will be 45 or older. Older workers are up to 5 times more likely to submit claims for short or long-term disability, and are absent longer than younger employees. A recent AARP study showed that nearly 70% of workers who have not yet retired report that they plan to work into their retirement years or never retire. One might also take note of a study by the Economic Policy Institute that found overtime costs industry as much as $300 billion in stress and fatigue-related problems.
In 2003, GM’s four joint-venture plants in China sold 386,710 vehicles for $875 million. One half of the profits went to GM. In sum, GM realized $2,267 per vehicle sold in China versus only $145 on each vehicle sold in North America. If you were running GM, would you expand in China or in the U.S.?
Kenneth Liebenthal is a University of Michigan professor and China expert who was senior director for Asian affairs on the National Security Council under Clinton. He observed “most of the jobs lost to Asia were lost years ago. Now they’re moving around Asia.”
The Navy canceled the overhaul of an aging supply ship. Todd Pacific Shipyards had anticipated that the work on the USS Sacramento would take about three months and hundreds of workers would be needed. Without the contract, Todd is temporarily laying off about 500 workers.
Saudi oil Minister Ali al-Naimi stated “as far as Saudi Arabia is concerned, April 1 has been implemented and I believe others have done so as well. Throwing more oil on the market, because of prices where they are today, would be destructive. That would make a glut and there is already a surplus on the market.” The fact is other countries, such as neighboring Mexico, will export more oil. It’s the least they can do. Mexico expropriated the oil properties from U.S. interests in 1937. They renamed the properties Pemex. We have earned the right to pay for what was once our interests and where not one penny was received in return. There are many robber baron countries out there in the world. Our government calls many “friends.” No one accused our government of being adept in the character evaluation department. Isn’t that right, Kenny Boy?
David Fyse of the International Energy Agency stated “Russia is a key component of OPEC’s problems over the next two to three years.”
Jeremy Siegel: “The bond is saying, Yes, I know that current GDP growth is quite good, but I don’t believe it will last.”
Mark Marsters is Cigna’s disability claims operations leader. Recently, he spoke at the national Disability Consulting Group Conference. He described tomorrow’s workforce as older, heavier, and unable to retire. Marsters stated “health care will continue to drive costs, a problem that will become even more urgent with the aging workforce. The aging workforce will drive greater incidences of disability. The economy may force companies to push their employees even further to boost productivity, which may in turn result in greater stress-related disability. All these trends will make integration of disability and health care more critical, as chronic disease management will become increasingly important along with programs that focus on lowering incidence and coordinating health, stress management and disability benefits.” It should be noted that, by 2008, 40% of the labor force will be 45 or older. Older workers are up to 5 times more likely to submit claims for short or long-term disability, and are absent longer than younger employees. A recent AARP study showed that nearly 70% of workers who have not yet retired report that they plan to work into their retirement years or never retire. One might also take note of a study by the Economic Policy Institute that found overtime costs industry as much as $300 billion in stress and fatigue-related problems.
In 2003, GM’s four joint-venture plants in China sold 386,710 vehicles for $875 million. One half of the profits went to GM. In sum, GM realized $2,267 per vehicle sold in China versus only $145 on each vehicle sold in North America. If you were running GM, would you expand in China or in the U.S.?
Kenneth Liebenthal is a University of Michigan professor and China expert who was senior director for Asian affairs on the National Security Council under Clinton. He observed “most of the jobs lost to Asia were lost years ago. Now they’re moving around Asia.”
The Navy canceled the overhaul of an aging supply ship. Todd Pacific Shipyards had anticipated that the work on the USS Sacramento would take about three months and hundreds of workers would be needed. Without the contract, Todd is temporarily laying off about 500 workers.
Saudi oil Minister Ali al-Naimi stated “as far as Saudi Arabia is concerned, April 1 has been implemented and I believe others have done so as well. Throwing more oil on the market, because of prices where they are today, would be destructive. That would make a glut and there is already a surplus on the market.” The fact is other countries, such as neighboring Mexico, will export more oil. It’s the least they can do. Mexico expropriated the oil properties from U.S. interests in 1937. They renamed the properties Pemex. We have earned the right to pay for what was once our interests and where not one penny was received in return. There are many robber baron countries out there in the world. Our government calls many “friends.” No one accused our government of being adept in the character evaluation department. Isn’t that right, Kenny Boy?
David Fyse of the International Energy Agency stated “Russia is a key component of OPEC’s problems over the next two to three years.”
Jeremy Siegel: “The bond is saying, Yes, I know that current GDP growth is quite good, but I don’t believe it will last.”
Monday, March 29, 2004
3/29/04 Extortion
Joshua Shapiro: “This is a different business cycle. To the extent that companies can squeeze another drop of blood out of their existing work force, they’re doing it. Eventually you reach the point where there’s no more blood to be given, but we haven’t reached it yet.”
For a few years I have written about the limited pricing power of companies. At the same time, as real wages have declined and work hours have been reduced, the American worker’s bargaining position with its employer weakened. A new low was recently reached. Not surprisingly, Boeing was the instigator. The incident occurred within the company’s Shared Services Group, which provides support to Boeing’s other business units. The division employs close to 16,000 and is based in Bellevue, Washington. The company’s desktop-computer support staff in Washington and Kansas was given an ultimatum—either at least match Dell’s bid to do their work or else be fired. An audit by Gartner Group indicated that Dell could provide computer support for 37% less than the current in-house cost. The 200 people impacted have until April 16 to at least match Dell’s proposals. Boeing spokesperson Bob Jorgenson stated “the Boeing group is outstanding. The quality of their service is equal to the best in the market that we can find externally. However, the cost of delivery is significantly higher.” The head of the Shared Services Group has ordered cost studies in every department. Jorgensen observed that the division’s performance would be judged against standards set by the marketplace. Ultimately, the in-house Boeing support group will provide more efficiencies; however, to compete against Dell, fewer people would be employed. Charles Bofferding, executive director of the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace stated “absent a commitment to employees to retrain them and find them other jobs, this feels an awful like extortion.” It is necessary to realize that costs are important. Having run many companies, I fully realize this. On the other hand, loyalty, seniority, and sense of security play an important part in the workplace. The Boeing situation should have been handled entirely differently. The workers should have been made a strategic part of the decision-making process on how to best reduce costs. Often the workers themselves have better ideas than those in managerial positions. You don’t have to look for employment for 20 months to be a discouraged worker. You can work for Boeing and be given an ultimatum.
While we are on the subject of Boeing, let’s look at their participation in bidding on an Air Force contract for 100 aerial refueling tankers. An audit report of the bidding process will be released shortly. It will show that the Air Force had requested 26 capabilities for the refueling tankers. Boeing, during the negotiating process, eliminated 19 of the 26 capabilities. On the other hand, Airbus complied with 20 of the 26 capabilities. Air Force Undersecretary for Acquisitions Marvin Sambur stated “this was not a competitive process. The Air Force was ordered by Congress to work with Boeing on the new tanker program.” Bush’s chief of staff, Andrew Card, was the point man on the deal. Boeing emails indicate that Card was mainly interested in the jobs the contract would create. Boeing claimed 28,000 new jobs would be added to the payroll. Roche, the Air Force secretary, claimed the number would be 39,000. The audit indicated the negotiations reflected “unsound acquisition and procurement practices.” Maybe the Congress should give an ultimatum to Boeing—change your ways or be barred from bidding on future government contracts. We are talking about $23.5 billion of taxpayer money.
The Philadelphia Metro area has been hit by two plat closings. Gross-Given Manufacturing, a vending machine company, will close its plant this month and lay off 113 workers. Mail-Well Envelope Co. will close its doors in May and eliminate 125 jobs.
From July 2000 until August 2003, Maine lost 17,800 manufacturing jobs, a loss of 22.1% and a greater percentage reduction than any other state in the nation, stated Maine AFL-CIO President Edward Gorham. This loss does not take into account the hundreds of paper employees who lost their jobs through the recent closing of the Eastern Pulp and Paper mills in Brewer and Lincoln, Maine. These two mills employed more than 750 people. Over all, in the last two years, there has been a 3% decline in New England employment, including 150,000 jobs lost in manufacturing.
When viewing March’s employment numbers, at least one sector will not be mentioned. There are a growing number of “underemployed” workers, those that take any job they could get rather than risk unemployment. According to various studies, they have too much experience or education and receive wages often far below their previous employment. In addition, it would be wise to focus on the number of people participating in the work force. Over the past three years, there has been a 1% drop in the participation rate due to the weak labor market. That rate is understated with the 1million+ unemployed having lost their benefits since December 21. In sum, there are less people in the workplace. That is a fact.
James Chanos: “One of the biggest components of a car’s costs are the legacy healthcare and pension benefits for people who don’t even work there any more.”
Marc Faber: “In the past I have had the tendency to dismiss the deflationist views of some reputed economists and strategists as unlikely. I now feel the current universal asset inflation and overheated Chinese economy will be followed by a serious bust and asset deflation, which will kill consumption in the U.S. The only question is when.”
Personal savings increased to 1.9% of disposable income in February, up from January’s 1.8%.
Bruce Karatz, chairman and chief executive of KB Home: “Industry seems to have gotten very used to the idea of hiring slowly.”
Joshua Shapiro: “This is a different business cycle. To the extent that companies can squeeze another drop of blood out of their existing work force, they’re doing it. Eventually you reach the point where there’s no more blood to be given, but we haven’t reached it yet.”
For a few years I have written about the limited pricing power of companies. At the same time, as real wages have declined and work hours have been reduced, the American worker’s bargaining position with its employer weakened. A new low was recently reached. Not surprisingly, Boeing was the instigator. The incident occurred within the company’s Shared Services Group, which provides support to Boeing’s other business units. The division employs close to 16,000 and is based in Bellevue, Washington. The company’s desktop-computer support staff in Washington and Kansas was given an ultimatum—either at least match Dell’s bid to do their work or else be fired. An audit by Gartner Group indicated that Dell could provide computer support for 37% less than the current in-house cost. The 200 people impacted have until April 16 to at least match Dell’s proposals. Boeing spokesperson Bob Jorgenson stated “the Boeing group is outstanding. The quality of their service is equal to the best in the market that we can find externally. However, the cost of delivery is significantly higher.” The head of the Shared Services Group has ordered cost studies in every department. Jorgensen observed that the division’s performance would be judged against standards set by the marketplace. Ultimately, the in-house Boeing support group will provide more efficiencies; however, to compete against Dell, fewer people would be employed. Charles Bofferding, executive director of the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace stated “absent a commitment to employees to retrain them and find them other jobs, this feels an awful like extortion.” It is necessary to realize that costs are important. Having run many companies, I fully realize this. On the other hand, loyalty, seniority, and sense of security play an important part in the workplace. The Boeing situation should have been handled entirely differently. The workers should have been made a strategic part of the decision-making process on how to best reduce costs. Often the workers themselves have better ideas than those in managerial positions. You don’t have to look for employment for 20 months to be a discouraged worker. You can work for Boeing and be given an ultimatum.
While we are on the subject of Boeing, let’s look at their participation in bidding on an Air Force contract for 100 aerial refueling tankers. An audit report of the bidding process will be released shortly. It will show that the Air Force had requested 26 capabilities for the refueling tankers. Boeing, during the negotiating process, eliminated 19 of the 26 capabilities. On the other hand, Airbus complied with 20 of the 26 capabilities. Air Force Undersecretary for Acquisitions Marvin Sambur stated “this was not a competitive process. The Air Force was ordered by Congress to work with Boeing on the new tanker program.” Bush’s chief of staff, Andrew Card, was the point man on the deal. Boeing emails indicate that Card was mainly interested in the jobs the contract would create. Boeing claimed 28,000 new jobs would be added to the payroll. Roche, the Air Force secretary, claimed the number would be 39,000. The audit indicated the negotiations reflected “unsound acquisition and procurement practices.” Maybe the Congress should give an ultimatum to Boeing—change your ways or be barred from bidding on future government contracts. We are talking about $23.5 billion of taxpayer money.
The Philadelphia Metro area has been hit by two plat closings. Gross-Given Manufacturing, a vending machine company, will close its plant this month and lay off 113 workers. Mail-Well Envelope Co. will close its doors in May and eliminate 125 jobs.
From July 2000 until August 2003, Maine lost 17,800 manufacturing jobs, a loss of 22.1% and a greater percentage reduction than any other state in the nation, stated Maine AFL-CIO President Edward Gorham. This loss does not take into account the hundreds of paper employees who lost their jobs through the recent closing of the Eastern Pulp and Paper mills in Brewer and Lincoln, Maine. These two mills employed more than 750 people. Over all, in the last two years, there has been a 3% decline in New England employment, including 150,000 jobs lost in manufacturing.
When viewing March’s employment numbers, at least one sector will not be mentioned. There are a growing number of “underemployed” workers, those that take any job they could get rather than risk unemployment. According to various studies, they have too much experience or education and receive wages often far below their previous employment. In addition, it would be wise to focus on the number of people participating in the work force. Over the past three years, there has been a 1% drop in the participation rate due to the weak labor market. That rate is understated with the 1million+ unemployed having lost their benefits since December 21. In sum, there are less people in the workplace. That is a fact.
James Chanos: “One of the biggest components of a car’s costs are the legacy healthcare and pension benefits for people who don’t even work there any more.”
Marc Faber: “In the past I have had the tendency to dismiss the deflationist views of some reputed economists and strategists as unlikely. I now feel the current universal asset inflation and overheated Chinese economy will be followed by a serious bust and asset deflation, which will kill consumption in the U.S. The only question is when.”
Personal savings increased to 1.9% of disposable income in February, up from January’s 1.8%.
Bruce Karatz, chairman and chief executive of KB Home: “Industry seems to have gotten very used to the idea of hiring slowly.”
Sunday, March 28, 2004
3/28/04 Surimi
For all you chefs, surimi is imitation crabmeat. Nichiro, a company based in Japan, employs about 700 people in Washington, Oregon, and Alaska. They process frozen seafood products under the Peter Pan Saefoods and SeaBlends labels. In May, the company is closing its Seattle facility and laying off 63 workers. Maybe the market for the imitation is waning. Maybe people want the real McCoy. That would prove to be a welcome change.
I know life on Wall Street rarely reflects the paycheck-to-paycheck life on Main Street. Money managers have almost no sense of reality when it comes to a life built around layoffs, fear of layoffs, strangling credit card debts, and the losing battle to make ends meet. Wall Street traders listen to the latest terrorist rumors and the whisper numbers making the rounds of the white shoe boiler rooms. I’ve been there. I’ve seen the rows of losers manning the phones with the latest gospel stories on the most closely watched stories. I’ve fired many of those soothsayers. Afterwards, my firms ran more efficiently and with greater honesty.
This week we will find out whether OPEC will reduce the production quota limit to 23.5 million barrels per day starting April 1. At the least, I expect that reduction to be delayed. However, there is the possibility that the quota could be increased. Much of the decision will focus on the global supply and demand situation, the price direction for the dollar, and the impact of higher crude prices on the world economy, particularly the U.S. economy. Just as Japan and China set our interest rates, OPEC’s oil pricing affects our growing trade deficit and the level of domestic inflation. OPEC cares about OPEC. Our nation’s financial well being is truly secondary. In dollar terms, the $38 per barrel price is not that encouraging to the producers. On the other hand, OPEC must keep a watchful eye on sources of oil from non-OPEC producing nations. Those with cash needs will settle for lower prices. Wal-Mart knows something about that. In the end, higher prices create more supply. Falsified supply and demand cannot fool every consumer on every street corner. Before you know it, more supply will bring layoffs. The OPEC nations may learn the world of paycheck-to-paycheck.
At the end of this week, you will read the headline that more jobs were added in March than at any time since December 2000. The jobs created are real. They are lower paying jobs that barely provide paychecks to cover week-to-week expenses. Many are contracting jobs. Many are part-time jobs. If you believe the labor market has turned the corner, then your brain has imitation gray matter. Every day I have provided examples of how the job market continues to exhibit weak knees. There is no stability and no substance. Keep your eye on the ball. Watch the ball’s rotation. Watch the spin. You’ll have a better chance to connect with the truth.
For all you chefs, surimi is imitation crabmeat. Nichiro, a company based in Japan, employs about 700 people in Washington, Oregon, and Alaska. They process frozen seafood products under the Peter Pan Saefoods and SeaBlends labels. In May, the company is closing its Seattle facility and laying off 63 workers. Maybe the market for the imitation is waning. Maybe people want the real McCoy. That would prove to be a welcome change.
I know life on Wall Street rarely reflects the paycheck-to-paycheck life on Main Street. Money managers have almost no sense of reality when it comes to a life built around layoffs, fear of layoffs, strangling credit card debts, and the losing battle to make ends meet. Wall Street traders listen to the latest terrorist rumors and the whisper numbers making the rounds of the white shoe boiler rooms. I’ve been there. I’ve seen the rows of losers manning the phones with the latest gospel stories on the most closely watched stories. I’ve fired many of those soothsayers. Afterwards, my firms ran more efficiently and with greater honesty.
This week we will find out whether OPEC will reduce the production quota limit to 23.5 million barrels per day starting April 1. At the least, I expect that reduction to be delayed. However, there is the possibility that the quota could be increased. Much of the decision will focus on the global supply and demand situation, the price direction for the dollar, and the impact of higher crude prices on the world economy, particularly the U.S. economy. Just as Japan and China set our interest rates, OPEC’s oil pricing affects our growing trade deficit and the level of domestic inflation. OPEC cares about OPEC. Our nation’s financial well being is truly secondary. In dollar terms, the $38 per barrel price is not that encouraging to the producers. On the other hand, OPEC must keep a watchful eye on sources of oil from non-OPEC producing nations. Those with cash needs will settle for lower prices. Wal-Mart knows something about that. In the end, higher prices create more supply. Falsified supply and demand cannot fool every consumer on every street corner. Before you know it, more supply will bring layoffs. The OPEC nations may learn the world of paycheck-to-paycheck.
At the end of this week, you will read the headline that more jobs were added in March than at any time since December 2000. The jobs created are real. They are lower paying jobs that barely provide paychecks to cover week-to-week expenses. Many are contracting jobs. Many are part-time jobs. If you believe the labor market has turned the corner, then your brain has imitation gray matter. Every day I have provided examples of how the job market continues to exhibit weak knees. There is no stability and no substance. Keep your eye on the ball. Watch the ball’s rotation. Watch the spin. You’ll have a better chance to connect with the truth.
3/27/04 The American Dream Down Payment Act
This is the beginning of a two-day posting focusing on Main Street. Since I am not running for political office, I have an advantage. I can and do tell the truth- not as I want you to see it, but the truth reflecting the facts. I doubt whether any of you have heard of the American Dream Down Payment Act. You will. Bush just signed it into law. The President is asking Congress to provide an annual $200 million for this program. Bush stated “that additional money would help an estimated $40,000 low-income families every year become first-time homeowners. I’m proposing that we make zero down payment loans available to first-time buyers whose mortgages are guaranteed by the FHA. And this will help about $150,000 families buy homes in the first year alone.”
The headlines will describe how compassionate the second coming of Bush as a president truly is. Rather than buy this bullshit on the Administration’s attempt to close the home ownership gap, one should pay close attention to those who talk out of both sides of their mouth and smile while doing it. The same person who gave you The American Dream Down Payment Act also gave you the nightmare on Main Street. On December 21 Bush made no attempt to extend the unemployment benefits for millions of Americans. This Friday you will read how more jobs were created in America. The headlines will ignore that hundreds of thousands of unemployed Americans who ceased to be counted as unemployed because they lost their benefits in March. I am not running for office. The American dream is in the voting booth. Pull the lever that provides reality.
This is the beginning of a two-day posting focusing on Main Street. Since I am not running for political office, I have an advantage. I can and do tell the truth- not as I want you to see it, but the truth reflecting the facts. I doubt whether any of you have heard of the American Dream Down Payment Act. You will. Bush just signed it into law. The President is asking Congress to provide an annual $200 million for this program. Bush stated “that additional money would help an estimated $40,000 low-income families every year become first-time homeowners. I’m proposing that we make zero down payment loans available to first-time buyers whose mortgages are guaranteed by the FHA. And this will help about $150,000 families buy homes in the first year alone.”
The headlines will describe how compassionate the second coming of Bush as a president truly is. Rather than buy this bullshit on the Administration’s attempt to close the home ownership gap, one should pay close attention to those who talk out of both sides of their mouth and smile while doing it. The same person who gave you The American Dream Down Payment Act also gave you the nightmare on Main Street. On December 21 Bush made no attempt to extend the unemployment benefits for millions of Americans. This Friday you will read how more jobs were created in America. The headlines will ignore that hundreds of thousands of unemployed Americans who ceased to be counted as unemployed because they lost their benefits in March. I am not running for office. The American dream is in the voting booth. Pull the lever that provides reality.
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