10/30/04 On The Run
Bush: “The terrorists are on the run.”
Steven Wright: “A cop pulled me over for running a stop sign. He said ‘didn’t you see the stop sign?’ I said Yeah, but I don’t believe everything I read.”
Philip Stephens of the Financial Times: “But amid the avalanche of polling data from every district and state in the Union, two messages stand out. The first is that a majority of Americans think the country is going in the wrong direction; the second that only a minority believe Mr. Bush actually deserves a second term. My guess is that, when they come to look in the mirror next Tuesday, most Americans will prefer light over darkness- tough-minded realism abroad and tolerance at home over faith-based fundamentalism. I think Mr. Kerry will win- comfortably.”
In this year’s third quarter, real disposable income rose but 1.4% and the personal savings rate fell 0.4%, its lowest level since the Depression. Salaries rose 0.7% in the third quarter, and over the past year 2.4%, the smallest gain on record. Most Americans are worse off today than when Bush came into office. Come November 2, the voters will have Bush on the run—back to Crawford, Texas.
Robert Brusca, chief economist for FAO Economics: “Any GDP growth rate that does not create jobs in the amount averaging 150,000 per month is a growth rate that is not high enough. Period. This is the fourth quarter in a row in which GDP has grown faster than disposable personal income, not a trend that can be sustained.”
For the first time, metropolitan Phoenix is our nation’s top home-building market.
David Copperfield: “I could make the whole of Manhattan disappear into that (Jennifer Lopez’s) amazing butt.”
Since Bush ordered the invasion of Iraq, at least 1,112 of our U.S. fighting forces have been killed.
According to a recent research report by economists at Citigroup, the rise in energy prices may reduce 0.9 percentage point from four-quarter GDP growth. For the month of October, crude futures gained 5% even though they closed yesterday at $51.76 a barrel, about 6% below the prior week’s record close of $55.17.
According to the latest University of Michigan consumer confidence index, consumer sentiment declined to 91.7 in October, down from 94.2 in September.
Pilliod Inc. will close its Nichols, S.C. furniture plant next week, putting 133 people out of work. An increase of imported furniture and the “economic uncertainty of the American consumer” were given as reasons for the closing.
There is a continuing need to reduce overproduction at GM and Ford. Inventory levels remain too high. Delphi Corp.’s CFO Alan Dawes stated “clearly, there’s an inventory bubble, and the production cuts won’t be complete by the end of the quarter. Our plans for next year are going to have to take that into account.” Fourth quarter production cuts by GM and Ford will reduce fourth-quarter GDP growth.
Mexico is the largest consumer of soft drinks in the world. Each year, a total of 526 servings of Coke are consumed by every man, woman, and child in that country. Mexican Coca -Cola is not the same as U.S. Coca-Cola. It contains cane sugar and it comes in heavy glass bottles. It’s sweeter than the U.S. product made with corn syrup. With a growing Latino population in the U.S., management at Coke might consider returning to the original formula containing sugar and not corn syrup. It might cost a bit more to make but the demand over time has proven to be greater.
According to preliminary results, Wall-Mart's same-store sales rose 2.8% in October.
The market cap for eBay is $65 billion, for Google $52 billion, and for Yahoo $50 billion. IBM's market cap is $150 billion. Taking a long-term investment view, I would rather own one share of eBay, Google, and Yahoo, and be short one share of IBM. That strategy could incur a great deal of risk. On the other hand, I have greater confidence in the managements and business models at eBay, Google, and Yahoo.
Friday, October 29, 2004
10/29/04 This Presidential Election Will Not Be Close
There are at least 15 million new registered voters, and 1.5 million are in Florida and 800,000 are found in Ohio. Of the new registered voters nationwide, Democrats hold a 3 to 2 advantage over Republicans. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) is the nation’s fastest growing public service employee union with 1.4 million members. They have 93,000 members in Pennsylvania, 53,000 in Minnesota, 120,000 in Ohio, and 30,000 in Ohio. In 2000, 68% of AFSCME members voted for Gore. In 2004, 90% of AFSCME’s membership, for example, is registered to vote in Iowa, a higher percentage than in 2000. AFSCME has aggressively mobilized its members on a nationwide basis. Their votes will make a difference.
GM will temporarily idle 5 plants early in 2005, laying off 9,000 workers. Ford will soon announce its plan for plant shutdowns and layoffs. MT Picture Display is closing its plant in Horseheads, N.Y. and cutting 800 jobs as well as cutting nearly 300 jobs at its Troy, Ohio plant.
Salazar is now leading Coors in the race for Ben Nighthorse’s Senate seat in Colorado. Maybe this is an indicator that Kerry will take Colorado.
The Conference Board’s Help-Wanted Advertising Index dipped one point in September to 36. It was 37 one year ago. In the last three months, help-wanted advertising declined in eight of the nine U.S. regions. Ken Goldstein, Conference Board economist, stated “with the Leading Economic Index declining for four straight months, the labor market could even be losing momentum going into the final months of 2004, and not just in the Midwest and Upper Plains.” In September 2004, the proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume was 25%, down from 49% the prior month and down from 43% a year earlier. This is not a soft patch. Speculators betting on rising interest rates and a stronger economy are the same speculators who have predicted a Bush win and greater job creation. They will be proven wrong again and again until they run out of capital. Sheep have a way of finding the path to the slaughterhouse.
Robert Orben: "More than ever before, Americans are suffering from back problems, back taxes, back rent, back auto payments."
China’s central bank raised its interest rates for the first time in nine years. The one-year lending and deposit rates will rise 0.27 percentage points to 5.58% and 2.25% respectively. It is an effort to slow their latest quarterly GDP 9.1% growth rate and their 5.2% September inflation rate. I have written several times that China had already banned loans to the auto, cement, and steel industries earlier this year. As a result, there has been a significant reduction in auto sales. China cannot continue to consume over half of the world’s cement output and over one-third of steel production without shortages and a sharp jump in prices. Slowing growth does not equate to zero growth. The recent price reduction in oil, copper, aluminum, nickel, and other commodities is healthy. This does not change the long-term trend of rising industrialization in China and India, for example. Investment in those countries will increase over the coming decades. China has a need to add jobs in its economy. Industrial output rose 16% in the last 12 months. China may raise interest rates again, but they will be careful to only cool the economy. Investors betting against the long-term growth trends in China and India will be carried out.
Will Rogers: "Be thankful we're not getting all the government we're paying for."
There are at least 15 million new registered voters, and 1.5 million are in Florida and 800,000 are found in Ohio. Of the new registered voters nationwide, Democrats hold a 3 to 2 advantage over Republicans. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) is the nation’s fastest growing public service employee union with 1.4 million members. They have 93,000 members in Pennsylvania, 53,000 in Minnesota, 120,000 in Ohio, and 30,000 in Ohio. In 2000, 68% of AFSCME members voted for Gore. In 2004, 90% of AFSCME’s membership, for example, is registered to vote in Iowa, a higher percentage than in 2000. AFSCME has aggressively mobilized its members on a nationwide basis. Their votes will make a difference.
GM will temporarily idle 5 plants early in 2005, laying off 9,000 workers. Ford will soon announce its plan for plant shutdowns and layoffs. MT Picture Display is closing its plant in Horseheads, N.Y. and cutting 800 jobs as well as cutting nearly 300 jobs at its Troy, Ohio plant.
Salazar is now leading Coors in the race for Ben Nighthorse’s Senate seat in Colorado. Maybe this is an indicator that Kerry will take Colorado.
The Conference Board’s Help-Wanted Advertising Index dipped one point in September to 36. It was 37 one year ago. In the last three months, help-wanted advertising declined in eight of the nine U.S. regions. Ken Goldstein, Conference Board economist, stated “with the Leading Economic Index declining for four straight months, the labor market could even be losing momentum going into the final months of 2004, and not just in the Midwest and Upper Plains.” In September 2004, the proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume was 25%, down from 49% the prior month and down from 43% a year earlier. This is not a soft patch. Speculators betting on rising interest rates and a stronger economy are the same speculators who have predicted a Bush win and greater job creation. They will be proven wrong again and again until they run out of capital. Sheep have a way of finding the path to the slaughterhouse.
Robert Orben: "More than ever before, Americans are suffering from back problems, back taxes, back rent, back auto payments."
China’s central bank raised its interest rates for the first time in nine years. The one-year lending and deposit rates will rise 0.27 percentage points to 5.58% and 2.25% respectively. It is an effort to slow their latest quarterly GDP 9.1% growth rate and their 5.2% September inflation rate. I have written several times that China had already banned loans to the auto, cement, and steel industries earlier this year. As a result, there has been a significant reduction in auto sales. China cannot continue to consume over half of the world’s cement output and over one-third of steel production without shortages and a sharp jump in prices. Slowing growth does not equate to zero growth. The recent price reduction in oil, copper, aluminum, nickel, and other commodities is healthy. This does not change the long-term trend of rising industrialization in China and India, for example. Investment in those countries will increase over the coming decades. China has a need to add jobs in its economy. Industrial output rose 16% in the last 12 months. China may raise interest rates again, but they will be careful to only cool the economy. Investors betting against the long-term growth trends in China and India will be carried out.
Will Rogers: "Be thankful we're not getting all the government we're paying for."
10/29/04 This Presidential Election Will Not Be Close
There are at least 15 million new registered voters, and 1.5 million are in Florida and 800,000 are found in Ohio. Of the new registered voters nationwide, Democrats hold a 3 to 2 advantage over Republicans. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) is the nation’s fastest growing public service employee union with 1.4 million members. They have 93,000 members in Pennsylvania, 53,000 in Minnesota, 120,000 in Ohio, and 30,000 in Ohio. In 2000, 68% of AFSCME members voted for Gore. In 2004, 90% of AFSCME’s membership, for example, is registered to vote in Iowa, a higher percentage than in 2000. AFSCME has aggressively mobilized its members on a nationwide basis. Their votes will make a difference.
GM will temporarily idle 5 plants early in 2005, laying off 9,000 workers. Ford will soon announce its plan for plant shutdowns and layoffs. MT Picture Display is closing its plant in Horseheads, N.Y. and cutting 800 jobs as well as cutting nearly 300 jobs at its Troy, Ohio plant.
Salazar is now leading Coors in the race for Ben Nighthorse’s Senate seat in Colorado. Maybe this is an indicator that Kerry will take Colorado.
The Conference Board’s Help-Wanted Advertising Index dipped one point in September to 36. It was 37 one year ago. In the last three months, help-wanted advertising declined in eight of the nine U.S. regions. Ken Goldstein, Conference Board economist, stated “with the Leading Economic Index declining for four straight months, the labor market could even be losing momentum going into the final months of 2004, and not just in the Midwest and Upper Plains.” In September 2004, the proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume was 25%, down from 49% the prior month and down from 43% a year earlier. This is not a soft patch. Speculators betting on rising interest rates and a stronger economy are the same speculators who have predicted a Bush win and greater job creation. They will be proven wrong again and again until they run out of capital. Sheep have a way of finding the path to the slaughterhouse.
Robert Orben: "More than ever before, Americans are suffering from back problems, back taxes, back rent, back auto payments."
China’s central bank raised its interest rates for the first time in nine years. The one-year lending and deposit rates will rise 0.27 percentage points to 5.58% and 2.25% respectively. It is an effort to slow their latest quarterly GDP 9.1% growth rate and their 5.2% September inflation rate. I have written several times that China had already banned loans to the auto, cement, and steel industries earlier this year. As a result, there has been a significant reduction in auto sales. China cannot continue to consume over half of the world’s cement output and over one-third of steel production without shortages and a sharp jump in prices. Slowing growth does not equate to zero growth. The recent price reduction in oil, copper, aluminum, nickel, and other commodities is healthy. This does not change the long-term trend of rising industrialization in China and India, for example. Investment in those countries will increase over the coming decades. China has a need to add jobs in its economy. Industrial output rose 16% in the last 12 months. China may raise interest rates again, but they will be careful to only cool the economy. Investors betting against the long-term growth trends in China and India will be carried out.
Will Rogers: "Be thankful we're not getting all the government we're paying for."
There are at least 15 million new registered voters, and 1.5 million are in Florida and 800,000 are found in Ohio. Of the new registered voters nationwide, Democrats hold a 3 to 2 advantage over Republicans. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) is the nation’s fastest growing public service employee union with 1.4 million members. They have 93,000 members in Pennsylvania, 53,000 in Minnesota, 120,000 in Ohio, and 30,000 in Ohio. In 2000, 68% of AFSCME members voted for Gore. In 2004, 90% of AFSCME’s membership, for example, is registered to vote in Iowa, a higher percentage than in 2000. AFSCME has aggressively mobilized its members on a nationwide basis. Their votes will make a difference.
GM will temporarily idle 5 plants early in 2005, laying off 9,000 workers. Ford will soon announce its plan for plant shutdowns and layoffs. MT Picture Display is closing its plant in Horseheads, N.Y. and cutting 800 jobs as well as cutting nearly 300 jobs at its Troy, Ohio plant.
Salazar is now leading Coors in the race for Ben Nighthorse’s Senate seat in Colorado. Maybe this is an indicator that Kerry will take Colorado.
The Conference Board’s Help-Wanted Advertising Index dipped one point in September to 36. It was 37 one year ago. In the last three months, help-wanted advertising declined in eight of the nine U.S. regions. Ken Goldstein, Conference Board economist, stated “with the Leading Economic Index declining for four straight months, the labor market could even be losing momentum going into the final months of 2004, and not just in the Midwest and Upper Plains.” In September 2004, the proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume was 25%, down from 49% the prior month and down from 43% a year earlier. This is not a soft patch. Speculators betting on rising interest rates and a stronger economy are the same speculators who have predicted a Bush win and greater job creation. They will be proven wrong again and again until they run out of capital. Sheep have a way of finding the path to the slaughterhouse.
Robert Orben: "More than ever before, Americans are suffering from back problems, back taxes, back rent, back auto payments."
China’s central bank raised its interest rates for the first time in nine years. The one-year lending and deposit rates will rise 0.27 percentage points to 5.58% and 2.25% respectively. It is an effort to slow their latest quarterly GDP 9.1% growth rate and their 5.2% September inflation rate. I have written several times that China had already banned loans to the auto, cement, and steel industries earlier this year. As a result, there has been a significant reduction in auto sales. China cannot continue to consume over half of the world’s cement output and over one-third of steel production without shortages and a sharp jump in prices. Slowing growth does not equate to zero growth. The recent price reduction in oil, copper, aluminum, nickel, and other commodities is healthy. This does not change the long-term trend of rising industrialization in China and India, for example. Investment in those countries will increase over the coming decades. China has a need to add jobs in its economy. Industrial output rose 16% in the last 12 months. China may raise interest rates again, but they will be careful to only cool the economy. Investors betting against the long-term growth trends in China and India will be carried out.
Will Rogers: "Be thankful we're not getting all the government we're paying for."
Thursday, October 28, 2004
10/28/04 Military Spending
Why did U.S. durable goods orders rise 0.2% in September? Orders derived from military spending increased 26.5% in the month. Total orders excluding military goods fell 0.9%, the biggest drop since April. U.S. September durable goods shipments fell 1.2%, the biggest drop in 13 months.The private sector soft patch continues. It is not surprising that the latest LA Times poll reveals that 51% of those polled disapprove of the way Bush is handling the economy. An Annenberg Center survey from Tuesday found 41% stated Bush’s policies have made the economy worse and 34% made the economy better.
Despite a decline in commercial airplane revenue, Boeing managed to earn 56 cents a share, up from 32 cents a year ago. How did this happen? The company enjoyed strong growth in its defense business PLUS a 2-cent gain from the sale of the company’s commercial finance unit, a 14-cent gain from state tax settlements, and the fact they only paid $7 million in taxes on $445 million of pre-tax income. In other words, based on the latest quarter, Boeing stock is selling at 20 times 2005 pre-tax income. Unfortunately, Boeing is not a growth company. It’s middle name is not Google. It is shocking that Boeing stock has been the second-best performing stock in the Dow this year. That doesn’t say much for the other companies in the Dow.
DaimlerChrysler stated that demand for the fourth quarter in the auto business “seems likely to weaken.” At least one company is telling the truth.
Bush on March 13, 2002: “And again, I don’t know where he is. I- I’ll repeat what I said. I truly am not that concerned about him.”
Bush on October 13, 2004: “Gosh, I don’t think I ever said I’m not worried about Osama bin Laden. That’s kind of one of those exaggerations.” Gee. Golly. Gosh.
Teddy Roosevelt: “A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues.”
U.S. new home sales rose in September to the third highest on record. Low mortgage rates continue to assist home buyers. However, the median selling price declined 8.4% to $197,000 from $215,900 the previous month. The main reason for the decline was a larger percentage of lower-priced starter homes were sold during the month. A word of caution is in order. The National Association of Home Builders index of builder optimism rose to 72 in October, the highest level in 2004.
Asia Times: “As far as the American military was concerned Pir Baksh (the man responsible for intelligence operations in eastern Afghanistan) was adamant: ‘Al-Qaeda escaped right out from under their feet.’ So it was a major Pentagon blunder. It was a major Rumsfeld-Franks blunder. It was a major White House blunder. And there were two reasons for it: 1) The Pentagon outsourced the war in eastern Afghanistan to the wrong warlords, who were collecting suitcases full of cash with one hand and spreading disinformation with the other. 2) The White House’s and the Pentagon’s attention were already directed toward toppling Saddam…it’s a serious charge that debunks the whole myth of Bush as a strong and resolute commander-in-chief of the ‘war on terror.’”
Teddy Roosevelt: “Nobody cares how much you know, until they know how much you care.”
Yesterday was a day for volatility. Crude dropped 5% in price. The yen hit a six-month high versus the dollar. Ten-year treasury yields rose from 3.97% to 4.09% and the Dow had its second straight day of triple digit gains accompanied by a 40-point rally in the Nasdaq. It’s important that strong bear market rallies occur. It brings renewed optimism and hope and that improves liquidity as well as making the pricing of puts more reasonable. Maybe the price of crude, natural gas, and heating oil has topped out- at least for now. Do you want to bet your portfolio on it?
Bill Gates: “Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can’t lose.”
Celanese has decided to restructure, and this will result I the elimination of 1,100 jobs, or 10% of its work force. Celanese Acetate will lay off 200 to 225 employees at its Rock Hill, NC operations. Kemet will lay off 10% of its work force. LSI Logic will cut 510 jobs, or 11% of its work force.
John D. Rockefeller: “The way to make money is to buy when blood is running in the streets.”
The Labor Dept reported that initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 20,000 to 350,000 last week. The number of former workers receiving state unemployment checks rose by 38,000 to 2.82 million. The Labor Dept could not think of a reason for the rise in initial claims for state unemployment because there weren't any hurricanes, typhoons, earthquakes, or soft patches.
Winston Churchill: "Some people's idea of free speech is that they are free to say anything they like, but if anyone says anything back, that is an outrage."
Why did U.S. durable goods orders rise 0.2% in September? Orders derived from military spending increased 26.5% in the month. Total orders excluding military goods fell 0.9%, the biggest drop since April. U.S. September durable goods shipments fell 1.2%, the biggest drop in 13 months.The private sector soft patch continues. It is not surprising that the latest LA Times poll reveals that 51% of those polled disapprove of the way Bush is handling the economy. An Annenberg Center survey from Tuesday found 41% stated Bush’s policies have made the economy worse and 34% made the economy better.
Despite a decline in commercial airplane revenue, Boeing managed to earn 56 cents a share, up from 32 cents a year ago. How did this happen? The company enjoyed strong growth in its defense business PLUS a 2-cent gain from the sale of the company’s commercial finance unit, a 14-cent gain from state tax settlements, and the fact they only paid $7 million in taxes on $445 million of pre-tax income. In other words, based on the latest quarter, Boeing stock is selling at 20 times 2005 pre-tax income. Unfortunately, Boeing is not a growth company. It’s middle name is not Google. It is shocking that Boeing stock has been the second-best performing stock in the Dow this year. That doesn’t say much for the other companies in the Dow.
DaimlerChrysler stated that demand for the fourth quarter in the auto business “seems likely to weaken.” At least one company is telling the truth.
Bush on March 13, 2002: “And again, I don’t know where he is. I- I’ll repeat what I said. I truly am not that concerned about him.”
Bush on October 13, 2004: “Gosh, I don’t think I ever said I’m not worried about Osama bin Laden. That’s kind of one of those exaggerations.” Gee. Golly. Gosh.
Teddy Roosevelt: “A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues.”
U.S. new home sales rose in September to the third highest on record. Low mortgage rates continue to assist home buyers. However, the median selling price declined 8.4% to $197,000 from $215,900 the previous month. The main reason for the decline was a larger percentage of lower-priced starter homes were sold during the month. A word of caution is in order. The National Association of Home Builders index of builder optimism rose to 72 in October, the highest level in 2004.
Asia Times: “As far as the American military was concerned Pir Baksh (the man responsible for intelligence operations in eastern Afghanistan) was adamant: ‘Al-Qaeda escaped right out from under their feet.’ So it was a major Pentagon blunder. It was a major Rumsfeld-Franks blunder. It was a major White House blunder. And there were two reasons for it: 1) The Pentagon outsourced the war in eastern Afghanistan to the wrong warlords, who were collecting suitcases full of cash with one hand and spreading disinformation with the other. 2) The White House’s and the Pentagon’s attention were already directed toward toppling Saddam…it’s a serious charge that debunks the whole myth of Bush as a strong and resolute commander-in-chief of the ‘war on terror.’”
Teddy Roosevelt: “Nobody cares how much you know, until they know how much you care.”
Yesterday was a day for volatility. Crude dropped 5% in price. The yen hit a six-month high versus the dollar. Ten-year treasury yields rose from 3.97% to 4.09% and the Dow had its second straight day of triple digit gains accompanied by a 40-point rally in the Nasdaq. It’s important that strong bear market rallies occur. It brings renewed optimism and hope and that improves liquidity as well as making the pricing of puts more reasonable. Maybe the price of crude, natural gas, and heating oil has topped out- at least for now. Do you want to bet your portfolio on it?
Bill Gates: “Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can’t lose.”
Celanese has decided to restructure, and this will result I the elimination of 1,100 jobs, or 10% of its work force. Celanese Acetate will lay off 200 to 225 employees at its Rock Hill, NC operations. Kemet will lay off 10% of its work force. LSI Logic will cut 510 jobs, or 11% of its work force.
John D. Rockefeller: “The way to make money is to buy when blood is running in the streets.”
The Labor Dept reported that initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 20,000 to 350,000 last week. The number of former workers receiving state unemployment checks rose by 38,000 to 2.82 million. The Labor Dept could not think of a reason for the rise in initial claims for state unemployment because there weren't any hurricanes, typhoons, earthquakes, or soft patches.
Winston Churchill: "Some people's idea of free speech is that they are free to say anything they like, but if anyone says anything back, that is an outrage."
Wednesday, October 27, 2004
10/27/04 The Polls Will Be Proven Wrong
I invest only my money. I do all my own research. My conclusions are based on a variety of data. In the end, my gut feel is the telling factor. Fortunately, God has endowed me with a gut that has not led me down the wrong path too often. I am not a political analyst. That gives me an advantage. I am not tied to historical methodologies. It will be proven that the 2004 presidential election will be different from all others. Polls may miss first time voters. The polls miss cell phone users. Curtis Gans, director of the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, stated “the normal screening questions deal with past behavior. That’s going to understate the turnout this time around.” In Ohio, the turnout in presidential elections declined from 70% of all voting age people in 1960 to 56% in 2000. Since the start of this year, election officials report that in Ohio the number of registered voters have increased by 12% to at least 7.8 million. That’s only a part of the story. Michael W. Traugott, a senior researcher at the University of Michigan’s Center for Political Studies stated “the Democratic Party essentially registered more people than the Republicans.” Counties in Ohio that historically vote for Democratic presidential candidates have been registering three new voters for every two new voters in Republican-voting counties. Depending on how you count seldom-seen voters, the outcome of a poll will change dramatically. If you include only those who always participate in major elections and are very certain of voting this year, then Bush has a slight lead. If you include all registered voters- regardless of their voting record- then Kerry has a 5 point advantage. In essence, much depends on the definition of a likely voter. In addition, as David Krane of the Harris Poll noted, “we’ve all been working for the past 20 years on a low-turnout model.” The outcome of the election will come down to turnout. I anticipate that the turnout will be much larger than forecast, and this will prove a big factor in the Kerry win.
There are other clues pointing to a Kerry victory. In newspaper endorsements, Kerry holds a 17 million to 12 million lead by circulation. At least 35 papers that backed Bush in 2000 have now switched to Kerry. Another nine that supported Bush have declared their neutrality this year. Only five have gone from Gore to Bush. In Florida, every paper has endorsed Kerry except for the Ocala Star-Banner and the Lakeland Ledger. The Tampa Tribune is neutral. Pennsylvania’s newspapers have overwhelmingly endorsed Kerry with the exception of two papers- in York and Easton. Michigan papers are for Kerry. Ohio is more interesting. Bush got endorsements from newspapers in Cincinnati and Canton, The Plain Dealer is neutral, Kerry was endorsed in Dayton, Toledo, and Akron, and the Columbus Dispatch endorsement of Bush carried much criticism of him. In Iowa, the only endorsement Bush received was in Cedar Rapids.
Then there are other less likely clues. BlueBeat.com is a free hi-fidelity digital radio service. Tens of thousands of citizens are voting with their ears by choosing Republican and Democratic-themed musical play lists on the site’s “Red, White, and BlueBeat.com.” They feature music by artists favored by the Bush/Cheney and the Kerry/Edwards campaigns, as well as partisan musicians on both sides. Bush’s stream currently trails Kerry’s by 47% to 53%.
According to the number of Internet downloads of a popular cell phone and PDA game called Political Dodgeball, the Democrats have recently taken a significant lead with a surge in the number of Democratic versions downloaded.
I also focus on the state of the working class in 2004 America. Today the Keystone Research Center will release a new version of its “state of working Pennsylvania 2004.” It includes the latest employment data from the Commonwealth also released today. Here are some of the important facts and all leading to Kerry winning Pennsylvania:
Pennsylvania has fewer jobs than when the last recession began in March 2001. In fact, there are 71,000 fewer jobs. The state has 154,600 fewer manufacturing jobs in September 2004 than March 2001. Since January 2001, jobs have declined by 1.2% while working-age population growth has grown 2.4%. Across the state unemployment is up since August 2001 and wages are down in many areas.
Another nail in Bush’s re-election coffin was the Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence falling to 92.8 in October, the lowest in seven months, from 96.7 in September. It was the third straight monthly decline in confidence. The consumer expectations component declined to 92 from 97.7. This consumer confidence survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. Consumers stated the job market and their income prospects would worsen in the coming months. It should be noted that the Conference Board’s confidence index was 115.7 when Bush took office.
Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist, believes there is a 40% chance of a global recession in 2005.
Peter W. Galbraith: “In spite of the chaos that followed the war, I am sure that Iraq is better off without Saddam Hussein. It is my own country that is worse off-- 1,100 dead soldiers, billions added to the deficit, and the enmity of much of the world. Someone out there has nuclear bomb-making equipment, and they may not be well disposed toward the U.S. Much of this could have been avoided with a competent postwar strategy. But without having planned or provided enough troops, we could be a lot safer if we hadn’t gone to war.”
Natural gas futures are at a 20-month high and crude remains at or above $55 a barrel. Heating oil continues at record high prices.
I invest only my money. I do all my own research. My conclusions are based on a variety of data. In the end, my gut feel is the telling factor. Fortunately, God has endowed me with a gut that has not led me down the wrong path too often. I am not a political analyst. That gives me an advantage. I am not tied to historical methodologies. It will be proven that the 2004 presidential election will be different from all others. Polls may miss first time voters. The polls miss cell phone users. Curtis Gans, director of the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, stated “the normal screening questions deal with past behavior. That’s going to understate the turnout this time around.” In Ohio, the turnout in presidential elections declined from 70% of all voting age people in 1960 to 56% in 2000. Since the start of this year, election officials report that in Ohio the number of registered voters have increased by 12% to at least 7.8 million. That’s only a part of the story. Michael W. Traugott, a senior researcher at the University of Michigan’s Center for Political Studies stated “the Democratic Party essentially registered more people than the Republicans.” Counties in Ohio that historically vote for Democratic presidential candidates have been registering three new voters for every two new voters in Republican-voting counties. Depending on how you count seldom-seen voters, the outcome of a poll will change dramatically. If you include only those who always participate in major elections and are very certain of voting this year, then Bush has a slight lead. If you include all registered voters- regardless of their voting record- then Kerry has a 5 point advantage. In essence, much depends on the definition of a likely voter. In addition, as David Krane of the Harris Poll noted, “we’ve all been working for the past 20 years on a low-turnout model.” The outcome of the election will come down to turnout. I anticipate that the turnout will be much larger than forecast, and this will prove a big factor in the Kerry win.
There are other clues pointing to a Kerry victory. In newspaper endorsements, Kerry holds a 17 million to 12 million lead by circulation. At least 35 papers that backed Bush in 2000 have now switched to Kerry. Another nine that supported Bush have declared their neutrality this year. Only five have gone from Gore to Bush. In Florida, every paper has endorsed Kerry except for the Ocala Star-Banner and the Lakeland Ledger. The Tampa Tribune is neutral. Pennsylvania’s newspapers have overwhelmingly endorsed Kerry with the exception of two papers- in York and Easton. Michigan papers are for Kerry. Ohio is more interesting. Bush got endorsements from newspapers in Cincinnati and Canton, The Plain Dealer is neutral, Kerry was endorsed in Dayton, Toledo, and Akron, and the Columbus Dispatch endorsement of Bush carried much criticism of him. In Iowa, the only endorsement Bush received was in Cedar Rapids.
Then there are other less likely clues. BlueBeat.com is a free hi-fidelity digital radio service. Tens of thousands of citizens are voting with their ears by choosing Republican and Democratic-themed musical play lists on the site’s “Red, White, and BlueBeat.com.” They feature music by artists favored by the Bush/Cheney and the Kerry/Edwards campaigns, as well as partisan musicians on both sides. Bush’s stream currently trails Kerry’s by 47% to 53%.
According to the number of Internet downloads of a popular cell phone and PDA game called Political Dodgeball, the Democrats have recently taken a significant lead with a surge in the number of Democratic versions downloaded.
I also focus on the state of the working class in 2004 America. Today the Keystone Research Center will release a new version of its “state of working Pennsylvania 2004.” It includes the latest employment data from the Commonwealth also released today. Here are some of the important facts and all leading to Kerry winning Pennsylvania:
Pennsylvania has fewer jobs than when the last recession began in March 2001. In fact, there are 71,000 fewer jobs. The state has 154,600 fewer manufacturing jobs in September 2004 than March 2001. Since January 2001, jobs have declined by 1.2% while working-age population growth has grown 2.4%. Across the state unemployment is up since August 2001 and wages are down in many areas.
Another nail in Bush’s re-election coffin was the Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence falling to 92.8 in October, the lowest in seven months, from 96.7 in September. It was the third straight monthly decline in confidence. The consumer expectations component declined to 92 from 97.7. This consumer confidence survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. Consumers stated the job market and their income prospects would worsen in the coming months. It should be noted that the Conference Board’s confidence index was 115.7 when Bush took office.
Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist, believes there is a 40% chance of a global recession in 2005.
Peter W. Galbraith: “In spite of the chaos that followed the war, I am sure that Iraq is better off without Saddam Hussein. It is my own country that is worse off-- 1,100 dead soldiers, billions added to the deficit, and the enmity of much of the world. Someone out there has nuclear bomb-making equipment, and they may not be well disposed toward the U.S. Much of this could have been avoided with a competent postwar strategy. But without having planned or provided enough troops, we could be a lot safer if we hadn’t gone to war.”
Natural gas futures are at a 20-month high and crude remains at or above $55 a barrel. Heating oil continues at record high prices.
Tuesday, October 26, 2004
10/26/04 The Terror And Fear Cards Will Prove A Losing Hand
I believe John Kerry will garner at least 289 electoral votes a week from today.
According to ComScore Networks, Kerry leads among women voters in Florida 50% to 45.5% for Bush.
The Financial Times states “John Kerry is a better choice for U.S. president…Mr. Bush’s crusading moralism has alienated the rest of the world, and a large constituency at home already fearful about the influence of the religious right. The scandal at Abu Gharaib has stained America’s reputation for a generation. The administration’s disdain for international law has shaken faith in American values. Overall, the U.S.-led war on terror misreads the battle against al-Qaeda as a clash of civilizations rather than a battle within the Muslim world. Mr. Kerry understands such nuances. He also understands that American power depends on American credibility.”
George Burns: “Too bad the only people who know how to run the country are busy driving cabs and cutting hair.”
According to the Pentagon and congressional officials, early next year the Bush administration intends to seek about $70 billion in emergency funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. According to Yale University economist William Nordhaus, in inflation adjusted terms, WW I cost just under $200 million for the U.S. The Viet Nam war cost roughly $500 million from 1964 to 1972. In another year from now, in 2 ½ years since we invaded Iraq, that war could cost nearly $250 billion. By my math, that number appears low.
According to a holiday survey of 3,500 respondents conducted by the NPD Group, the findings suggest “there’s no real frenzy to go out and grab an item, simply because there really aren’t any hot items this year. The absence of an ‘I can’t live without this’ factor means consumers will also spend less on themselves this year than last year.” According to a separate survey of 31,000 consumers by the NPD Group, 26% of shoppers stated they would shop for themselves over the holidays, down from 29% last year. Gift cards will remain popular.
Peter Lynch: “Go for a business that any idiot can run- because sooner or later, an idiot is probably going to run it.”
According to Petrologistics, OPEC pumped 200,000 barrels per day more in October than in September.
How do 377 tons of explosives disappear? Maybe they’re buried with Jimmy Hoffa.
The Christian Science Monitor reports that there are at least 8 million illegal aliens living in America today- and their numbers are growing by at least 400,000 a year. Maybe 500,000. No one knows for sure. How many yearly visits do they make to hospital emergency rooms?
W.C. Fields: “I never drink water, fish fuck in it.”
The McDonald Financial Group Affluent Customer Confidence Index, a quarterly measurement, showed the first decline since April 2003. The affluent, defined as those with at least $500,000 to invest, showed an increased pessimism toward the economy. Out of 100 total points, the index reached only 48, a 13 point decline since the last survey in July. In addition, 76% are concerned about the current state of the economy, compared with 64% in the July survey.
George Soros: “Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.”
According to Foreclosures.com, “only 18% of California households can afford a median priced home in our state. When affordability gets that low, a price correction is inevitable.” The company stated sales volume is falling in several southern California markets, and “falling sales volume is often a precursor to falling prices.” The same could be said for the stock market. In rising markets, volume is greater.
According to a senior Commerce Ministry official, China expects its trade surplus to be around $10 billion in 2004. In 2003, China’s trade surplus fell 16% to about $25 billion.
Sales of U.S. existing homes increased 3.1% in September to the third highest rate ever. Median sales prices rose 8.6% year-over-year to $186,000.
George Soros: “His (Bush’s) campaign is based on the assumption that people do not really care about the truth and they will believe practically anything if it is repeated often enough, particularly by a President at a time of war. There must be something wrong with us if we fall for it.”
The International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS reported that sales at U.S. retail chain stores fell 0.6% last week after declining 0.2% the previous week. They probably will blame the drop on earthquakes, avalanches, typhoons, hurricanes, and Bush campaigning on terror and fear.
I believe John Kerry will garner at least 289 electoral votes a week from today.
According to ComScore Networks, Kerry leads among women voters in Florida 50% to 45.5% for Bush.
The Financial Times states “John Kerry is a better choice for U.S. president…Mr. Bush’s crusading moralism has alienated the rest of the world, and a large constituency at home already fearful about the influence of the religious right. The scandal at Abu Gharaib has stained America’s reputation for a generation. The administration’s disdain for international law has shaken faith in American values. Overall, the U.S.-led war on terror misreads the battle against al-Qaeda as a clash of civilizations rather than a battle within the Muslim world. Mr. Kerry understands such nuances. He also understands that American power depends on American credibility.”
George Burns: “Too bad the only people who know how to run the country are busy driving cabs and cutting hair.”
According to the Pentagon and congressional officials, early next year the Bush administration intends to seek about $70 billion in emergency funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. According to Yale University economist William Nordhaus, in inflation adjusted terms, WW I cost just under $200 million for the U.S. The Viet Nam war cost roughly $500 million from 1964 to 1972. In another year from now, in 2 ½ years since we invaded Iraq, that war could cost nearly $250 billion. By my math, that number appears low.
According to a holiday survey of 3,500 respondents conducted by the NPD Group, the findings suggest “there’s no real frenzy to go out and grab an item, simply because there really aren’t any hot items this year. The absence of an ‘I can’t live without this’ factor means consumers will also spend less on themselves this year than last year.” According to a separate survey of 31,000 consumers by the NPD Group, 26% of shoppers stated they would shop for themselves over the holidays, down from 29% last year. Gift cards will remain popular.
Peter Lynch: “Go for a business that any idiot can run- because sooner or later, an idiot is probably going to run it.”
According to Petrologistics, OPEC pumped 200,000 barrels per day more in October than in September.
How do 377 tons of explosives disappear? Maybe they’re buried with Jimmy Hoffa.
The Christian Science Monitor reports that there are at least 8 million illegal aliens living in America today- and their numbers are growing by at least 400,000 a year. Maybe 500,000. No one knows for sure. How many yearly visits do they make to hospital emergency rooms?
W.C. Fields: “I never drink water, fish fuck in it.”
The McDonald Financial Group Affluent Customer Confidence Index, a quarterly measurement, showed the first decline since April 2003. The affluent, defined as those with at least $500,000 to invest, showed an increased pessimism toward the economy. Out of 100 total points, the index reached only 48, a 13 point decline since the last survey in July. In addition, 76% are concerned about the current state of the economy, compared with 64% in the July survey.
George Soros: “Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.”
According to Foreclosures.com, “only 18% of California households can afford a median priced home in our state. When affordability gets that low, a price correction is inevitable.” The company stated sales volume is falling in several southern California markets, and “falling sales volume is often a precursor to falling prices.” The same could be said for the stock market. In rising markets, volume is greater.
According to a senior Commerce Ministry official, China expects its trade surplus to be around $10 billion in 2004. In 2003, China’s trade surplus fell 16% to about $25 billion.
Sales of U.S. existing homes increased 3.1% in September to the third highest rate ever. Median sales prices rose 8.6% year-over-year to $186,000.
George Soros: “His (Bush’s) campaign is based on the assumption that people do not really care about the truth and they will believe practically anything if it is repeated often enough, particularly by a President at a time of war. There must be something wrong with us if we fall for it.”
The International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS reported that sales at U.S. retail chain stores fell 0.6% last week after declining 0.2% the previous week. They probably will blame the drop on earthquakes, avalanches, typhoons, hurricanes, and Bush campaigning on terror and fear.
10/26/04 The Terror And Fear Cards Will Prove A Losing Hand
I believe John Kerry will garner at least 289 electoral votes a week from today.
According to ComScore Networks, Kerry leads among women voters in Florida 50% to 45.5% for Bush.
The Financial Times states “John Kerry is a better choice for U.S. president…Mr. Bush’s crusading moralism has alienated the rest of the world, and a large constituency at home already fearful about the influence of the religious right. The scandal at Abu Gharaib has stained America’s reputation for a generation. The administration’s disdain for international law has shaken faith in American values. Overall, the U.S.-led war on terror misreads the battle against al-Qaeda as a clash of civilizations rather than a battle within the Muslim world. Mr. Kerry understands such nuances. He also understands that American power depends on American credibility.”
George Burns: “Too bad the only people who know how to run the country are busy driving cabs and cutting hair.”
According to the Pentagon and congressional officials, early next year the Bush administration intends to seek about $70 billion in emergency funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. According to Yale University economist William Nordhaus, in inflation adjusted terms, WW I cost just under $200 million for the U.S. The Viet Nam war cost roughly $500 million from 1964 to 1972. In another year from now, in 2 ½ years since we invaded Iraq, that war could cost nearly $250 billion. By my math, that number appears low.
According to a holiday survey of 3,500 respondents conducted by the NPD Group, the findings suggest “there’s no real frenzy to go out and grab an item, simply because there really aren’t any hot items this year. The absence of an ‘I can’t live without this’ factor means consumers will also spend less on themselves this year than last year.” According to a separate survey of 31,000 consumers by the NPD Group, 26% of shoppers stated they would shop for themselves over the holidays, down from 29% last year. Gift cards will remain popular.
Peter Lynch: “Go for a business that any idiot can run- because sooner or later, an idiot is probably going to run it.”
According to Petrologistics, OPEC pumped 200,000 barrels per day more in October than in September.
How do 377 tons of explosives disappear? Maybe they’re buried with Jimmy Hoffa.
The Christian Science Monitor reports that there are at least 8 million illegal aliens living in America today- and their numbers are growing by at least 400,000 a year. Maybe 500,000. No one knows for sure. How many yearly visits do they make to hospital emergency rooms?
W.C. Fields: “I never drink water, fish fuck in it.”
The McDonald Financial Group Affluent Customer Confidence Index, a quarterly measurement, showed the first decline since April 2003. The affluent, defined as those with at least $500,000 to invest, showed an increased pessimism toward the economy. Out of 100 total points, the index reached only 48, a 13 point decline since the last survey in July. In addition, 76% are concerned about the current state of the economy, compared with 64% in the July survey.
George Soros: “Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.”
According to Foreclosures.com, “only 18% of California households can afford a median priced home in our state. When affordability gets that low, a price correction is inevitable.” The company stated sales volume is falling in several southern California markets, and “falling sales volume is often a precursor to falling prices.” The same could be said for the stock market. In rising markets, volume is greater.
According to a senior Commerce Ministry official, China expects its trade surplus to be around $10 billion in 2004. In 2003, China’s trade surplus fell 16% to about $25 billion.
Sales of U.S. existing homes increased 3.1% in September to the third highest rate ever. Median sales prices rose 8.6% year-over-year to $186,000.
George Soros: “His (Bush’s) campaign is based on the assumption that people do not really care about the truth and they will believe practically anything if it is repeated often enough, particularly by a President at a time of war. There must be something wrong with us if we fall for it.”
The International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS reported that sales at U.S. retail chain stores fell 0.6% last week after declining 0.2% the previous week. They probably will blame the drop on earthquakes, avalanches, typhoons, hurricanes, and Bush campaigning on terror and fear.
I believe John Kerry will garner at least 289 electoral votes a week from today.
According to ComScore Networks, Kerry leads among women voters in Florida 50% to 45.5% for Bush.
The Financial Times states “John Kerry is a better choice for U.S. president…Mr. Bush’s crusading moralism has alienated the rest of the world, and a large constituency at home already fearful about the influence of the religious right. The scandal at Abu Gharaib has stained America’s reputation for a generation. The administration’s disdain for international law has shaken faith in American values. Overall, the U.S.-led war on terror misreads the battle against al-Qaeda as a clash of civilizations rather than a battle within the Muslim world. Mr. Kerry understands such nuances. He also understands that American power depends on American credibility.”
George Burns: “Too bad the only people who know how to run the country are busy driving cabs and cutting hair.”
According to the Pentagon and congressional officials, early next year the Bush administration intends to seek about $70 billion in emergency funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. According to Yale University economist William Nordhaus, in inflation adjusted terms, WW I cost just under $200 million for the U.S. The Viet Nam war cost roughly $500 million from 1964 to 1972. In another year from now, in 2 ½ years since we invaded Iraq, that war could cost nearly $250 billion. By my math, that number appears low.
According to a holiday survey of 3,500 respondents conducted by the NPD Group, the findings suggest “there’s no real frenzy to go out and grab an item, simply because there really aren’t any hot items this year. The absence of an ‘I can’t live without this’ factor means consumers will also spend less on themselves this year than last year.” According to a separate survey of 31,000 consumers by the NPD Group, 26% of shoppers stated they would shop for themselves over the holidays, down from 29% last year. Gift cards will remain popular.
Peter Lynch: “Go for a business that any idiot can run- because sooner or later, an idiot is probably going to run it.”
According to Petrologistics, OPEC pumped 200,000 barrels per day more in October than in September.
How do 377 tons of explosives disappear? Maybe they’re buried with Jimmy Hoffa.
The Christian Science Monitor reports that there are at least 8 million illegal aliens living in America today- and their numbers are growing by at least 400,000 a year. Maybe 500,000. No one knows for sure. How many yearly visits do they make to hospital emergency rooms?
W.C. Fields: “I never drink water, fish fuck in it.”
The McDonald Financial Group Affluent Customer Confidence Index, a quarterly measurement, showed the first decline since April 2003. The affluent, defined as those with at least $500,000 to invest, showed an increased pessimism toward the economy. Out of 100 total points, the index reached only 48, a 13 point decline since the last survey in July. In addition, 76% are concerned about the current state of the economy, compared with 64% in the July survey.
George Soros: “Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.”
According to Foreclosures.com, “only 18% of California households can afford a median priced home in our state. When affordability gets that low, a price correction is inevitable.” The company stated sales volume is falling in several southern California markets, and “falling sales volume is often a precursor to falling prices.” The same could be said for the stock market. In rising markets, volume is greater.
According to a senior Commerce Ministry official, China expects its trade surplus to be around $10 billion in 2004. In 2003, China’s trade surplus fell 16% to about $25 billion.
Sales of U.S. existing homes increased 3.1% in September to the third highest rate ever. Median sales prices rose 8.6% year-over-year to $186,000.
George Soros: “His (Bush’s) campaign is based on the assumption that people do not really care about the truth and they will believe practically anything if it is repeated often enough, particularly by a President at a time of war. There must be something wrong with us if we fall for it.”
The International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS reported that sales at U.S. retail chain stores fell 0.6% last week after declining 0.2% the previous week. They probably will blame the drop on earthquakes, avalanches, typhoons, hurricanes, and Bush campaigning on terror and fear.
Monday, October 25, 2004
10/25/04 We Are Responsible For the Forgery On the Wall
As Leonard Pitts, Jr., syndicated columnist for the Miami Herald, points out, “we are the reason Bush gets away with it.” He writes that, in March 2003, Pat Robertson advised Bush to prepare the nation for the likelihood of casualties in Iraq. Bush replied “we’re not going to have any casualties.” So far, 1,105 U.S. soldiers have been killed in Iraq. In addition, there are over 9,000 casualties. Pitts goes on “we bought a forgery, a fake ‘War on Terror’ for which we paid, and are still paying. Now we are loath to admit what anybody can see…For four years, he and cronies have blithely changed or suppressed government reports- on health, science, the environment- that counter the world view. Just last month, when intelligence agents issued a report whose pessimism was at odds with the party line on Iraq, the president dismissed it by saying these experts were ‘just guessing.’ On Planet Bush, a thing is true because the president believes it t be true and any facts marshaled in opposition are irrelevant. One’s job as the president’s adviser, apparently, is simply to nod vigorously. Ask yourself why we’re keeping that forgery on the wall. At this point, the only people being fooled are those who want to be.”
Mark Twain: "Denial ain't just a river in Egypt."
In a study by NPD Group, 42% of those polled said the price of gasoline will impact holiday spending. About a third of the consumers polled said they would wait for items to go on sale before making purchases.
Venture capital spending in Silicon Valley start-ups in the third quarter was down 24% from the prior quarter, according to an Ernst & Young survey.
For the ninth consecutive day the dollar fell against the euro to $1.28. It was an eight month high for the euro. The dollar dropped to 106.24 yen. It was the first time in six months it had traded below 107 yen. In addition, the dollar traded at four year lows against the Korean won and the Singapore dollar and to an eight year low against the Swiss franc. San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen stated the dollar was still “relatively high despite our large and growing trade deficit.” There is increasing concern about capital inflows to the U.S.
Gold rallied to a six month high of $429 per ounce and crude remained at all-time high levels.
This week the U.S. Conference Board’s gauge of consumer sentiment in October will most probably show a steep decline. The NAPM-Chicago index in October will most likely also show a steep decline. Forecasts for fourth quarter GDP growth are too high.
Freddie Prinze: "My folks first met on the subway trying to pick each others pockets."
As Leonard Pitts, Jr., syndicated columnist for the Miami Herald, points out, “we are the reason Bush gets away with it.” He writes that, in March 2003, Pat Robertson advised Bush to prepare the nation for the likelihood of casualties in Iraq. Bush replied “we’re not going to have any casualties.” So far, 1,105 U.S. soldiers have been killed in Iraq. In addition, there are over 9,000 casualties. Pitts goes on “we bought a forgery, a fake ‘War on Terror’ for which we paid, and are still paying. Now we are loath to admit what anybody can see…For four years, he and cronies have blithely changed or suppressed government reports- on health, science, the environment- that counter the world view. Just last month, when intelligence agents issued a report whose pessimism was at odds with the party line on Iraq, the president dismissed it by saying these experts were ‘just guessing.’ On Planet Bush, a thing is true because the president believes it t be true and any facts marshaled in opposition are irrelevant. One’s job as the president’s adviser, apparently, is simply to nod vigorously. Ask yourself why we’re keeping that forgery on the wall. At this point, the only people being fooled are those who want to be.”
Mark Twain: "Denial ain't just a river in Egypt."
In a study by NPD Group, 42% of those polled said the price of gasoline will impact holiday spending. About a third of the consumers polled said they would wait for items to go on sale before making purchases.
Venture capital spending in Silicon Valley start-ups in the third quarter was down 24% from the prior quarter, according to an Ernst & Young survey.
For the ninth consecutive day the dollar fell against the euro to $1.28. It was an eight month high for the euro. The dollar dropped to 106.24 yen. It was the first time in six months it had traded below 107 yen. In addition, the dollar traded at four year lows against the Korean won and the Singapore dollar and to an eight year low against the Swiss franc. San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen stated the dollar was still “relatively high despite our large and growing trade deficit.” There is increasing concern about capital inflows to the U.S.
Gold rallied to a six month high of $429 per ounce and crude remained at all-time high levels.
This week the U.S. Conference Board’s gauge of consumer sentiment in October will most probably show a steep decline. The NAPM-Chicago index in October will most likely also show a steep decline. Forecasts for fourth quarter GDP growth are too high.
Freddie Prinze: "My folks first met on the subway trying to pick each others pockets."
Sunday, October 24, 2004
10/24/04 The Changing Landscape
It was hardly a surprise to read the Washington Post’s endorsement of Kerry for President this morning. In its editorial, the paper stated that “on balance, though, we believe Mr. Kerry, with his promise of resoluteness tempered by wisdom and open-mindedness, has staked a stronger claim on the nation’s trust to lead for the next four years.” Possibly, more importantly, the Des Moines Register came out today in support of Kerry for President. In its endorsement entitled John Kerry, the real thing, the paper stated “now it is time to take the next logical step and recognize John Kerry as someone who could do better. It’s time to see Kerry as the person he is, not as the caricature created in the president’s campaign ads…By nature, he is more of a uniter than Bush…It is the nature of the man to listen and to respect others. He does not tend toward vindictiveness or in-your-face triumphalism. There is a dignity about him…We’re confident in recommending him as a person of common sense and decency- a leader who has what it takes to bring Americans back together.” I urge you all to read the entire endorsement.
Eligible registered voter rolls have increased 21% or by 470,000 more Arizonans for November 2 than could vote in 2000.
Sean P. Diddy is taking his Combs Citizen Change campaign for getting out the vote to the swing states. There are 40 million eligible voters between 18 and 35.
Wisconsin is one of four battleground states allowing same-day voter registration. In 2000, nearly one in six voters registered on election day.
In August, foreigners purchased a net $59 billion of Treasury bonds, stocks, and other securities. It was the smallest amount bought in 10 months.
Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen stated the trade gap poses “significant issues” for the economy. This week the dollar declined 1.7% against the euro and 1.9% versus the yen. Lehman Bros. predicts the dollar will decline to $1.32 to the euro in a year and the dollar to 99 yen in 12 months.
Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies: “I’m less worried about the tax side. The part that’s got me so upset is in the whole election debate nobody’s been talking about the spending side. If you take out Homeland Security and Defense, it has been a cookie jar in the last four years. Everything has gotten loaded in. Money has gotten loaded into these appropriation bills that are funding everything under the sun. There is absolutely no spending discipline.” She is recommending a return to pay-as-you-go policy requiring new spending to be offset.
Japan’s trade surplus in September declined 21.8% from the prior month.
The kids’ poll has correctly predicted the winner in the last four presidential elections. The latest poll of nearly 400,000 children gave 57% of their votes to Kerry.
For the first time since August 2003, the four-week moving average of U.S. bond purchases by foreign central banks has turned negative.
It is helpful to be open-minded about new ways to understand and assess the movement of prices in financial markets. An alternative look centers on fractal theory and described in a book written by Mandelbrot and Hudson entitled The (Mis)behavior of Markets:A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin, and Reward.
In September, 7,000 jobs were lost in Wisconsin, 14,800 in Michigan, and 9,500 in Florida. Over the last three months jobs were lost in Minnesota, Missouri, Oregon, and Michigan.
Mozilla’s Firefox version 1.0 has been in beta for the past four months. It is a revolutionary new browser. A very famous techie friend put it on my computer. It is a free open-source browser. It has been downloaded almost 3 million times. It has significant advantages over Microsoft’s Internet Explorer. Next month Mozilla hopes to release its non-beta 1.0 version, and they’re “hoping for 10 million downloads in 10 days.” Mozilla spells trouble for Microsoft.
In 1999, sales for Infosys amounted to $121 million. Last year, they surpassed $1 billion. Their CEO stated “after the boom, people no longer invested in technology as an act of faith. They started focusing on reliability, return on investment, and value for money, which is exactly what we deliver.” Nilekani, the CEO, sees their next big opportunity in consulting and services. He observed that “it’s like Wal-Mart getting into groceries or Dell getting into printers. On top of our global; delivery model, we’re adding these new capabilities at the point of customer contact.” Accenture and IBM had better take this competitor seriously. Infosys is hungry and will offer value and excellent customer service.
According to AMR Research, retailers will spend about $400 million worldwide this year on forecasting applications.
A Mercer survey last year found 80% of companies reduced health-care coverage for future retirees, and that 40% make current retirees pay the full cost of health insurance.
Since the start of 2002, the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index is up 100%.
Wally Weitz: “The risk of a short-term surprise or crisis is created by a weak dollar if the holders of some hundreds of billions or trillions of U.S. securities decide the interest rate they’re receiving on those securities is not compensating them enough for the chronic loss of value they would experience because of the dollar weakening.”
On Thursday, the Check Clearing for the 21st Century Act goes into effect. It will enable banks to accept electronic images of checks as proof of payment in place of the actual checks.
George W. Bush : "I've been to war. I've raised twins. If I had a choice, I'd rather go to war."
It was hardly a surprise to read the Washington Post’s endorsement of Kerry for President this morning. In its editorial, the paper stated that “on balance, though, we believe Mr. Kerry, with his promise of resoluteness tempered by wisdom and open-mindedness, has staked a stronger claim on the nation’s trust to lead for the next four years.” Possibly, more importantly, the Des Moines Register came out today in support of Kerry for President. In its endorsement entitled John Kerry, the real thing, the paper stated “now it is time to take the next logical step and recognize John Kerry as someone who could do better. It’s time to see Kerry as the person he is, not as the caricature created in the president’s campaign ads…By nature, he is more of a uniter than Bush…It is the nature of the man to listen and to respect others. He does not tend toward vindictiveness or in-your-face triumphalism. There is a dignity about him…We’re confident in recommending him as a person of common sense and decency- a leader who has what it takes to bring Americans back together.” I urge you all to read the entire endorsement.
Eligible registered voter rolls have increased 21% or by 470,000 more Arizonans for November 2 than could vote in 2000.
Sean P. Diddy is taking his Combs Citizen Change campaign for getting out the vote to the swing states. There are 40 million eligible voters between 18 and 35.
Wisconsin is one of four battleground states allowing same-day voter registration. In 2000, nearly one in six voters registered on election day.
In August, foreigners purchased a net $59 billion of Treasury bonds, stocks, and other securities. It was the smallest amount bought in 10 months.
Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen stated the trade gap poses “significant issues” for the economy. This week the dollar declined 1.7% against the euro and 1.9% versus the yen. Lehman Bros. predicts the dollar will decline to $1.32 to the euro in a year and the dollar to 99 yen in 12 months.
Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies: “I’m less worried about the tax side. The part that’s got me so upset is in the whole election debate nobody’s been talking about the spending side. If you take out Homeland Security and Defense, it has been a cookie jar in the last four years. Everything has gotten loaded in. Money has gotten loaded into these appropriation bills that are funding everything under the sun. There is absolutely no spending discipline.” She is recommending a return to pay-as-you-go policy requiring new spending to be offset.
Japan’s trade surplus in September declined 21.8% from the prior month.
The kids’ poll has correctly predicted the winner in the last four presidential elections. The latest poll of nearly 400,000 children gave 57% of their votes to Kerry.
For the first time since August 2003, the four-week moving average of U.S. bond purchases by foreign central banks has turned negative.
It is helpful to be open-minded about new ways to understand and assess the movement of prices in financial markets. An alternative look centers on fractal theory and described in a book written by Mandelbrot and Hudson entitled The (Mis)behavior of Markets:A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin, and Reward.
In September, 7,000 jobs were lost in Wisconsin, 14,800 in Michigan, and 9,500 in Florida. Over the last three months jobs were lost in Minnesota, Missouri, Oregon, and Michigan.
Mozilla’s Firefox version 1.0 has been in beta for the past four months. It is a revolutionary new browser. A very famous techie friend put it on my computer. It is a free open-source browser. It has been downloaded almost 3 million times. It has significant advantages over Microsoft’s Internet Explorer. Next month Mozilla hopes to release its non-beta 1.0 version, and they’re “hoping for 10 million downloads in 10 days.” Mozilla spells trouble for Microsoft.
In 1999, sales for Infosys amounted to $121 million. Last year, they surpassed $1 billion. Their CEO stated “after the boom, people no longer invested in technology as an act of faith. They started focusing on reliability, return on investment, and value for money, which is exactly what we deliver.” Nilekani, the CEO, sees their next big opportunity in consulting and services. He observed that “it’s like Wal-Mart getting into groceries or Dell getting into printers. On top of our global; delivery model, we’re adding these new capabilities at the point of customer contact.” Accenture and IBM had better take this competitor seriously. Infosys is hungry and will offer value and excellent customer service.
According to AMR Research, retailers will spend about $400 million worldwide this year on forecasting applications.
A Mercer survey last year found 80% of companies reduced health-care coverage for future retirees, and that 40% make current retirees pay the full cost of health insurance.
Since the start of 2002, the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index is up 100%.
Wally Weitz: “The risk of a short-term surprise or crisis is created by a weak dollar if the holders of some hundreds of billions or trillions of U.S. securities decide the interest rate they’re receiving on those securities is not compensating them enough for the chronic loss of value they would experience because of the dollar weakening.”
On Thursday, the Check Clearing for the 21st Century Act goes into effect. It will enable banks to accept electronic images of checks as proof of payment in place of the actual checks.
George W. Bush : "I've been to war. I've raised twins. If I had a choice, I'd rather go to war."
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