11/27/04 Early Bird Specials
As is the custom on Black Friday, shoppers lined up before dawn to get the early bird specials. The weak dollar did not prevent low pricing on selected items, such as, $15 DVDs, $69 TVs, $30 MPs players, and $499 Toshiba laptops. Many other items included mail-in rebates. Best Buy, Circuit City, and Sears, for example, were heavy promoters of sale items with mail-in rebates. I can’t stand them. A sale should be a sale, and that’s what you find at Wal-Mart.
More and more shoppers are purchasing diamonds at Wal-Mart and Costco. I expect this trend to continue.
The WTO finalized or approved sanctions the EU will have against the U.S. These are sanctions pertaining to the Byrd amendment, and it is expected they will amount to more than $150 million a year.
According to the Massachusetts Software Council, the state lost 121 software companies and 3,859 software-related jobs, which represents a 3% decline, during the past year. It was the fourth straight year of declines in the number of software businesses and jobs.
According to a forecast by the USDA, 2005 will represent the first year since the late 1950s that the U.S. didn’t record an agricultural trade surplus. Bruce Gardner, dean of the College of Agriculture and Natural Resources at the University of Maryland, opines “and the reasons suggest it isn’t likely to turn around…this probably is not just a one-year blip.” U.S. farm exports are expected to fall to $56 billion in 2005 from $62.3 billion this year, and that’s with the declining dollar. Our agricultural exports represent about 7% of our total yearly exports. Gardner observed “imports are more expensive, but we’re buying them anyway.”
Fed Governor William Poole: “You have to move the rates to respond to changing circumstances and I suggest that it is what we have ahead of us.” The changing circumstances are not represented by unfavorable core inflation rates. They couldn’t be represented by exceptional GDP growth because it has been declining for several quarters. Is it possible that the Fed is lifting rates in an effort to attract capital out of savings surplus countries into the U.S. in order to fund, on a daily basis, our “junky-like” deficits? As a nation, we’re strung out on spending beyond our means, and our debts have mounted to a level that exceeds our ability to repay them. Some Fed members believe that it is possible for our nation to repay the debt through depreciating dollars that will energize our exports. As with our farm exports, this will not prove successful. However, it may prove successful in creating a dollar crisis. We are well on our way to having that occur. Intervention is an unsuccessful stop-gap measure.
Maxwell Drever, successful contrarian residential property investor: “What I have seen in 30-plus years of contrarian investing is that people think things are never going to get better or they think they are going to go to the moon.” A 0.25 per cent rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, he predicts, would cause “additional financial stress.” A one per cent rise would for some put properties in a “death spiral.”
Mark Twain: "The man who has not expereinced being poor cannot imagine the curse of it."
Ohio has the seventh largest state economy in the nation. According to a recent report by non-profit Columbus-based (where Pastor Parsley’s Center for Moral Clarity is located) Community Research Partners, one in five jobs or about 1 million pay less than a poverty-level wage. Twenty-one per cent of Ohio’s low-income working families or about 74,000 families have a parent who has not completed high school or a GED. An estimated 44% to 49% of Ohioans age 16 and over have poor literacy skills. In Ohio, 68% of Ohio’s low-income working families or 200,000 families have an adult without any post-secondary education. One out of 10 Ohio adults or 575,000 workers is not fully employed, a percentage worse than 34 other states. Ninety-six thousand Ohio working families with children are living in poverty, and yet, Ohio levies more taxes on lower-income families than in all but five other states. If I were a betting man, and I’m not, I’d wager that these lower-income wage earners are the ones that gave Bush the win in Ohio. These are the same Americans who have seen their unemployment benefits run out while tax cuts were implemented over and over again since January 2001. These are the same Americans who have done so well under their Republican governor Taft. A minimum wage worker toiling 35 hours a week does not meet Ohio’s current $181 average weekly wage requirement to qualify for unemployment benefits. Ohio serves as an excellent example of our country’s as well as that state’s efforts on behalf of low-income working families.
Aristotle: "Poverty is the parent of revolution."
Saturday, November 27, 2004
11/27/04 Early Bird Specials
As is the custom on Black Friday, shoppers lined up before dawn to get the early bird specials. The weak dollar did not prevent low pricing on selected items, such as, $15 DVDs, $69 TVs, $30 MPs players, and $499 Toshiba laptops. Many other items included mail-in rebates. Best Buy, Circuit City, and Sears, for example, were heavy promoters of sale items with mail-in rebates. I can’t stand them. A sale should be a sale, and that’s what you find at Wal-Mart.
More and more shoppers are purchasing diamonds at Wal-Mart and Costco. I expect this trend to continue.
The WTO finalized or approved sanctions the EU will have against the U.S. These are sanctions pertaining to the Byrd amendment, and it is expected they will amount to more than $150 million a year.
According to the Massachusetts Software Council, the state lost 121 software companies and 3,859 software-related jobs, which represents a 3% decline, during the past year. It was the fourth straight year of declines in the number of software businesses and jobs.
According to a forecast by the USDA, 2005 will represent the first year since the late 1950s that the U.S. didn’t record an agricultural trade surplus. Bruce Gardner, dean of the College of Agriculture and Natural Resources at the University of Maryland, opines “and the reasons suggest it isn’t likely to turn around…this probably is not just a one-year blip.” U.S. farm exports are expected to fall to $56 billion in 2005 from $62.3 billion this year, and that’s with the declining dollar. Our agricultural exports represent about 7% of our total yearly exports. Gardner observed “imports are more expensive, but we’re buying them anyway.”
Fed Governor William Poole: “You have to move the rates to respond to changing circumstances and I suggest that it is what we have ahead of us.” The changing circumstances are not represented by unfavorable core inflation rates. They couldn’t be represented by exceptional GDP growth because it has been declining for several quarters. Is it possible that the Fed is lifting rates in an effort to attract capital out of savings surplus countries into the U.S. in order to fund, on a daily basis, our “junky-like” deficits? As a nation, we’re strung out on spending beyond our means, and our debts have mounted to a level that exceeds our ability to repay them. Some Fed members believe that it is possible for our nation to repay the debt through depreciating dollars that will energize our exports. As with our farm exports, this will not prove successful. However, it may prove successful in creating a dollar crisis. We are well on our way to having that occur. Intervention is an unsuccessful stop-gap measure.
Maxwell Drever, successful contrarian residential property investor: “What I have seen in 30-plus years of contrarian investing is that people think things are never going to get better or they think they are going to go to the moon.” A 0.25 per cent rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, he predicts, would cause “additional financial stress.” A one per cent rise would for some put properties in a “death spiral.”
Mark Twain: "The man who has not expereinced being poor cannot imagine the curse of it."
Ohio has the seventh largest state economy in the nation. According to a recent report by non-profit Columbus-based (where Pastor Parsley’s Center for Moral Clarity is located) Community Research Partners, one in five jobs or about 1 million pay less than a poverty-level wage. Twenty-one per cent of Ohio’s low-income working families or about 74,000 families have a parent who has not completed high school or a GED. An estimated 44% to 49% of Ohioans age 16 and over have poor literacy skills. In Ohio, 68% of Ohio’s low-income working families or 200,000 families have an adult without any post-secondary education. One out of 10 Ohio adults or 575,000 workers is not fully employed, a percentage worse than 34 other states. Ninety-six thousand Ohio working families with children are living in poverty, and yet, Ohio levies more taxes on lower-income families than in all but five other states. If I were a betting man, and I’m not, I’d wager that these lower-income wage earners are the ones that gave Bush the win in Ohio. These are the same Americans who have seen their unemployment benefits run out while tax cuts were implemented over and over again since January 2001. These are the same Americans who have done so well under their Republican governor Taft. A minimum wage worker toiling 35 hours a week does not meet Ohio’s current $181 average weekly wage requirement to qualify for unemployment benefits. Ohio serves as an excellent example of our country’s as well as that state’s efforts on behalf of low-income working families.
Aristotle: "Poverty is the parent of revolution."
As is the custom on Black Friday, shoppers lined up before dawn to get the early bird specials. The weak dollar did not prevent low pricing on selected items, such as, $15 DVDs, $69 TVs, $30 MPs players, and $499 Toshiba laptops. Many other items included mail-in rebates. Best Buy, Circuit City, and Sears, for example, were heavy promoters of sale items with mail-in rebates. I can’t stand them. A sale should be a sale, and that’s what you find at Wal-Mart.
More and more shoppers are purchasing diamonds at Wal-Mart and Costco. I expect this trend to continue.
The WTO finalized or approved sanctions the EU will have against the U.S. These are sanctions pertaining to the Byrd amendment, and it is expected they will amount to more than $150 million a year.
According to the Massachusetts Software Council, the state lost 121 software companies and 3,859 software-related jobs, which represents a 3% decline, during the past year. It was the fourth straight year of declines in the number of software businesses and jobs.
According to a forecast by the USDA, 2005 will represent the first year since the late 1950s that the U.S. didn’t record an agricultural trade surplus. Bruce Gardner, dean of the College of Agriculture and Natural Resources at the University of Maryland, opines “and the reasons suggest it isn’t likely to turn around…this probably is not just a one-year blip.” U.S. farm exports are expected to fall to $56 billion in 2005 from $62.3 billion this year, and that’s with the declining dollar. Our agricultural exports represent about 7% of our total yearly exports. Gardner observed “imports are more expensive, but we’re buying them anyway.”
Fed Governor William Poole: “You have to move the rates to respond to changing circumstances and I suggest that it is what we have ahead of us.” The changing circumstances are not represented by unfavorable core inflation rates. They couldn’t be represented by exceptional GDP growth because it has been declining for several quarters. Is it possible that the Fed is lifting rates in an effort to attract capital out of savings surplus countries into the U.S. in order to fund, on a daily basis, our “junky-like” deficits? As a nation, we’re strung out on spending beyond our means, and our debts have mounted to a level that exceeds our ability to repay them. Some Fed members believe that it is possible for our nation to repay the debt through depreciating dollars that will energize our exports. As with our farm exports, this will not prove successful. However, it may prove successful in creating a dollar crisis. We are well on our way to having that occur. Intervention is an unsuccessful stop-gap measure.
Maxwell Drever, successful contrarian residential property investor: “What I have seen in 30-plus years of contrarian investing is that people think things are never going to get better or they think they are going to go to the moon.” A 0.25 per cent rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, he predicts, would cause “additional financial stress.” A one per cent rise would for some put properties in a “death spiral.”
Mark Twain: "The man who has not expereinced being poor cannot imagine the curse of it."
Ohio has the seventh largest state economy in the nation. According to a recent report by non-profit Columbus-based (where Pastor Parsley’s Center for Moral Clarity is located) Community Research Partners, one in five jobs or about 1 million pay less than a poverty-level wage. Twenty-one per cent of Ohio’s low-income working families or about 74,000 families have a parent who has not completed high school or a GED. An estimated 44% to 49% of Ohioans age 16 and over have poor literacy skills. In Ohio, 68% of Ohio’s low-income working families or 200,000 families have an adult without any post-secondary education. One out of 10 Ohio adults or 575,000 workers is not fully employed, a percentage worse than 34 other states. Ninety-six thousand Ohio working families with children are living in poverty, and yet, Ohio levies more taxes on lower-income families than in all but five other states. If I were a betting man, and I’m not, I’d wager that these lower-income wage earners are the ones that gave Bush the win in Ohio. These are the same Americans who have seen their unemployment benefits run out while tax cuts were implemented over and over again since January 2001. These are the same Americans who have done so well under their Republican governor Taft. A minimum wage worker toiling 35 hours a week does not meet Ohio’s current $181 average weekly wage requirement to qualify for unemployment benefits. Ohio serves as an excellent example of our country’s as well as that state’s efforts on behalf of low-income working families.
Aristotle: "Poverty is the parent of revolution."
Friday, November 26, 2004
11/26/04 This Holiday Shopping Season
To begin, it is two days longer than last year’s. According to Jupiter analyst Patti Freeman Evans, 86.1 million will shop online this season compared with 73.3 million last year, and the biggest online season shopping is expected to start either Dec. 6 or Dec. 13. In sum, the Internet will become the number one shopping choice for the first time for households nationwide. This is significant, and in my view, has a long-term bearing on the worth of traditional department stores and mall-oriented retailers. The exceptions would be Wal-Mart, Target, and Costco.
The National Retail Federation projects that gift-card sales will exceed $55 billion this year, a 22% increase over the prior year. By 2005, they forecast sales of $65 billion. According to a Comdata survey, 59% of respondents purchased a gift card for a relative and 44% bought one for a friend. Gift cards are especially popular with those 65 and older. With the aging of the population, one can expect gift card purchases to have an ever-increasing share of the holiday season as well as year-round giving. This phenomenon should impact the number of seasonal workers hired. You don’t need as many temp workers to sell a gift card. According to the BLS, nationally, on average 506,000 jobs are added in November and December, with 550,000 in the retail sector or essentially seasonal workers. John Challenger mentioned that “a lot of people want to work during the holiday just to get access to discounts and get money coming in.”
Erma Bombeck: "Shopping is a woman thing. It's a contact sport like football. Women enjoy the scrimmage, the noisy crowds, the danger of being trampled to death, and the ecstasy of the purchase."
Starbucks’ reloadable stored-value cards hit the $1 billion mark in October. They have become an increasingly important part of the company’s sales.
Bo Derek: "Whoever said money can't buy happiness simply didn't know where to go shopping."
Because of the large drop in the dollar, individuals in euroland have become large buyers of items listed on Ebay.
In the 1960s, the U.S. had a current account surplus and we were a net creditor to the world. In only 40 years, our economic world has turned 180 degrees. This morning there was an erroneous newspaper report that China had cut its U.S. Treasury bond holdings. Because of the rumor, the dollar got slammed, U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yields jumped to 4.245%, and gold climbed to $455 a try ounce. The dollar recovered after the central bank advisor quoted by the paper stated he had no knowledge about China’s foreign exchange reserves, which amounted to nearly $515 billion at the end of September and are the world’s second largest. It’s a sad day when the U.S. currency is held hostage to rumors surrounding China’s buying and selling our dollar. Does that thought interrupt your sleep knowing your assets are dollar denominated? You had better think twice before you have all your eggs in dollar baskets. Come Easter, you may be hunting for your nest egg.
I hope you enjoy this holiday shopping season. BB Simon Belts aka bling bling belts, Fat Baby Boots, Choppers, Dig-Dug, and Pole Position don’t exactly ring my bell for excitement. As for layaways, I can do away with them too.
Since 2001, Asia’s official reserves have increased by $1.2 trillion. And since 2001, our national debt has increased by how many trillions of dollars? You get the picture. It’s not pretty.
In March, Ohio Governor Bob Taft held a news conference and stated that state and county loans had saved Lester Precision Die Casting of Bedford Heights from closing and that 168 jobs had been saved. I guess Taft spoke too soon. The money never arrived. The day before Thanksgiving the die casting company closed and the employees lost their jobs. Ohio should have learned that having a job is a basic common value and a core mainstream issue. Where is Pastor Parsley?
According to the American Association of Railroads, year-to-date intermodal shipments are up nearly 10% from a year ago.
To begin, it is two days longer than last year’s. According to Jupiter analyst Patti Freeman Evans, 86.1 million will shop online this season compared with 73.3 million last year, and the biggest online season shopping is expected to start either Dec. 6 or Dec. 13. In sum, the Internet will become the number one shopping choice for the first time for households nationwide. This is significant, and in my view, has a long-term bearing on the worth of traditional department stores and mall-oriented retailers. The exceptions would be Wal-Mart, Target, and Costco.
The National Retail Federation projects that gift-card sales will exceed $55 billion this year, a 22% increase over the prior year. By 2005, they forecast sales of $65 billion. According to a Comdata survey, 59% of respondents purchased a gift card for a relative and 44% bought one for a friend. Gift cards are especially popular with those 65 and older. With the aging of the population, one can expect gift card purchases to have an ever-increasing share of the holiday season as well as year-round giving. This phenomenon should impact the number of seasonal workers hired. You don’t need as many temp workers to sell a gift card. According to the BLS, nationally, on average 506,000 jobs are added in November and December, with 550,000 in the retail sector or essentially seasonal workers. John Challenger mentioned that “a lot of people want to work during the holiday just to get access to discounts and get money coming in.”
Erma Bombeck: "Shopping is a woman thing. It's a contact sport like football. Women enjoy the scrimmage, the noisy crowds, the danger of being trampled to death, and the ecstasy of the purchase."
Starbucks’ reloadable stored-value cards hit the $1 billion mark in October. They have become an increasingly important part of the company’s sales.
Bo Derek: "Whoever said money can't buy happiness simply didn't know where to go shopping."
Because of the large drop in the dollar, individuals in euroland have become large buyers of items listed on Ebay.
In the 1960s, the U.S. had a current account surplus and we were a net creditor to the world. In only 40 years, our economic world has turned 180 degrees. This morning there was an erroneous newspaper report that China had cut its U.S. Treasury bond holdings. Because of the rumor, the dollar got slammed, U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yields jumped to 4.245%, and gold climbed to $455 a try ounce. The dollar recovered after the central bank advisor quoted by the paper stated he had no knowledge about China’s foreign exchange reserves, which amounted to nearly $515 billion at the end of September and are the world’s second largest. It’s a sad day when the U.S. currency is held hostage to rumors surrounding China’s buying and selling our dollar. Does that thought interrupt your sleep knowing your assets are dollar denominated? You had better think twice before you have all your eggs in dollar baskets. Come Easter, you may be hunting for your nest egg.
I hope you enjoy this holiday shopping season. BB Simon Belts aka bling bling belts, Fat Baby Boots, Choppers, Dig-Dug, and Pole Position don’t exactly ring my bell for excitement. As for layaways, I can do away with them too.
Since 2001, Asia’s official reserves have increased by $1.2 trillion. And since 2001, our national debt has increased by how many trillions of dollars? You get the picture. It’s not pretty.
In March, Ohio Governor Bob Taft held a news conference and stated that state and county loans had saved Lester Precision Die Casting of Bedford Heights from closing and that 168 jobs had been saved. I guess Taft spoke too soon. The money never arrived. The day before Thanksgiving the die casting company closed and the employees lost their jobs. Ohio should have learned that having a job is a basic common value and a core mainstream issue. Where is Pastor Parsley?
According to the American Association of Railroads, year-to-date intermodal shipments are up nearly 10% from a year ago.
11/26/04 This Holiday Shopping Season
To begin, it is two days longer than last year’s. According to Jupiter analyst Patti Freeman Evans, 86.1 million will shop online this season compared with 73.3 million last year, and the biggest online season shopping is expected to start either Dec. 6 or Dec. 13. In sum, the Internet will become the number one shopping choice for the first time for households nationwide. This is significant, and in my view, has a long-term bearing on the worth of traditional department stores and mall-oriented retailers. The exceptions would be Wal-Mart, Target, and Costco.
The National Retail Federation projects that gift-card sales will exceed $55 billion this year, a 22% increase over the prior year. By 2005, they forecast sales of $65 billion. According to a Comdata survey, 59% of respondents purchased a gift card for a relative and 44% bought one for a friend. Gift cards are especially popular with those 65 and older. With the aging of the population, one can expect gift card purchases to have an ever-increasing share of the holiday season as well as year-round giving. This phenomenon should impact the number of seasonal workers hired. You don’t need as many temp workers to sell a gift card. According to the BLS, nationally, on average 506,000 jobs are added in November and December, with 550,000 in the retail sector or essentially seasonal workers. John Challenger mentioned that “a lot of people want to work during the holiday just to get access to discounts and get money coming in.”
Erma Bombeck: "Shopping is a woman thing. It's a contact sport like football. Women enjoy the scrimmage, the noisy crowds, the danger of being trampled to death, and the ecstasy of the purchase."
Starbucks’ reloadable stored-value cards hit the $1 billion mark in October. They have become an increasingly important part of the company’s sales.
Bo Derek: "Whoever said money can't buy happiness simply didn't know where to go shopping."
Because of the large drop in the dollar, individuals in euroland have become large buyers of items listed on Ebay.
In the 1960s, the U.S. had a current account surplus and we were a net creditor to the world. In only 40 years, our economic world has turned 180 degrees. This morning there was an erroneous newspaper report that China had cut its U.S. Treasury bond holdings. Because of the rumor, the dollar got slammed, U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yields jumped to 4.245%, and gold climbed to $455 a try ounce. The dollar recovered after the central bank advisor quoted by the paper stated he had no knowledge about China’s foreign exchange reserves, which amounted to nearly $515 billion at the end of September and are the world’s second largest. It’s a sad day when the U.S. currency is held hostage to rumors surrounding China’s buying and selling our dollar. Does that thought interrupt your sleep knowing your assets are dollar denominated? You had better think twice before you have all your eggs in dollar baskets. Come Easter, you may be hunting for your nest egg.
I hope you enjoy this holiday shopping season. BB Simon Belts aka bling bling belts, Fat Baby Boots, Choppers, Dig-Dug, and Pole Position don’t exactly ring my bell for excitement. As for layaways, I can do away with them too.
Since 2001, Asia’s official reserves have increased by $1.2 trillion. And since 2001, our national debt has increased by how many trillions of dollars? You get the picture. It’s not pretty.
In March, Ohio Governor Bob Taft held a news conference and stated that state and county loans had saved Lester Precision Die Casting of Bedford Heights from closing and that 168 jobs had been saved. I guess Taft spoke too soon. The money never arrived. The day before Thanksgiving the die casting company closed and the employees lost their jobs. Ohio should have learned that having a job is a basic common value and a core mainstream issue. Where is Pastor Parsley?
According to the American Association of Railroads, year-to-date intermodal shipments are up nearly 10% from a year ago.
To begin, it is two days longer than last year’s. According to Jupiter analyst Patti Freeman Evans, 86.1 million will shop online this season compared with 73.3 million last year, and the biggest online season shopping is expected to start either Dec. 6 or Dec. 13. In sum, the Internet will become the number one shopping choice for the first time for households nationwide. This is significant, and in my view, has a long-term bearing on the worth of traditional department stores and mall-oriented retailers. The exceptions would be Wal-Mart, Target, and Costco.
The National Retail Federation projects that gift-card sales will exceed $55 billion this year, a 22% increase over the prior year. By 2005, they forecast sales of $65 billion. According to a Comdata survey, 59% of respondents purchased a gift card for a relative and 44% bought one for a friend. Gift cards are especially popular with those 65 and older. With the aging of the population, one can expect gift card purchases to have an ever-increasing share of the holiday season as well as year-round giving. This phenomenon should impact the number of seasonal workers hired. You don’t need as many temp workers to sell a gift card. According to the BLS, nationally, on average 506,000 jobs are added in November and December, with 550,000 in the retail sector or essentially seasonal workers. John Challenger mentioned that “a lot of people want to work during the holiday just to get access to discounts and get money coming in.”
Erma Bombeck: "Shopping is a woman thing. It's a contact sport like football. Women enjoy the scrimmage, the noisy crowds, the danger of being trampled to death, and the ecstasy of the purchase."
Starbucks’ reloadable stored-value cards hit the $1 billion mark in October. They have become an increasingly important part of the company’s sales.
Bo Derek: "Whoever said money can't buy happiness simply didn't know where to go shopping."
Because of the large drop in the dollar, individuals in euroland have become large buyers of items listed on Ebay.
In the 1960s, the U.S. had a current account surplus and we were a net creditor to the world. In only 40 years, our economic world has turned 180 degrees. This morning there was an erroneous newspaper report that China had cut its U.S. Treasury bond holdings. Because of the rumor, the dollar got slammed, U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yields jumped to 4.245%, and gold climbed to $455 a try ounce. The dollar recovered after the central bank advisor quoted by the paper stated he had no knowledge about China’s foreign exchange reserves, which amounted to nearly $515 billion at the end of September and are the world’s second largest. It’s a sad day when the U.S. currency is held hostage to rumors surrounding China’s buying and selling our dollar. Does that thought interrupt your sleep knowing your assets are dollar denominated? You had better think twice before you have all your eggs in dollar baskets. Come Easter, you may be hunting for your nest egg.
I hope you enjoy this holiday shopping season. BB Simon Belts aka bling bling belts, Fat Baby Boots, Choppers, Dig-Dug, and Pole Position don’t exactly ring my bell for excitement. As for layaways, I can do away with them too.
Since 2001, Asia’s official reserves have increased by $1.2 trillion. And since 2001, our national debt has increased by how many trillions of dollars? You get the picture. It’s not pretty.
In March, Ohio Governor Bob Taft held a news conference and stated that state and county loans had saved Lester Precision Die Casting of Bedford Heights from closing and that 168 jobs had been saved. I guess Taft spoke too soon. The money never arrived. The day before Thanksgiving the die casting company closed and the employees lost their jobs. Ohio should have learned that having a job is a basic common value and a core mainstream issue. Where is Pastor Parsley?
According to the American Association of Railroads, year-to-date intermodal shipments are up nearly 10% from a year ago.
Thursday, November 25, 2004
11/25/04 Giving Thanks And Remembering Others
Sir John Templeton: “ If you do not fall on your knees each day with overwhelming gratitude for your blessing--your multiplying multitudes of blessings—then you just have not yet seen the big picture.”
This Thanksgiving there will be too many families missing their loved ones. Some have passed on as a result of the years, some from poor health, and some due to war. Since the Fallujah offensive began on Nov. 7, at least 868 of our troops have been wounded, and since the war began, 9,326 U.S. troops have been wounded. At least 1,228 members of the U.S. military have died since March 2003. We give thanks to each and every U.S. service member, and forever give thanks and remember their bravery and their dedication to duty.
Tecumseh, Shawnee Chief: “When you arise in the morning, give thanks for the morning light, for your life and strength. Give thanks for your food and the joy of living. If you see no reason for giving thanks, the fault lies in yourself.”
Nissan Motor Co Ltd will suspend operations at 3 of its 4 domestic plants for 5 days due to a shortage of steel.
Native American proverb: “The frog does not drink up the pond in which he lives.”
Japan’s trade surplus rose 8.8% from a year ago.
The euro rose above $1.32 for the first time. Gold traded overnight at $450 an ounce.
The Conference Board’s Help-Wanted Advertising Index increased one point in October to 37. It was 36 one year ago. In the last three months, help-wanted advertising declined in six of the nine U.S. regions. Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein stated “despite the outsized job gain in October, the measure of labor demand going forward remains relatively flat, as does the number signing up for their unemployment checks. Both initial jobless claims and want-ad volume have remained flat since early 2004. Except for two outbursts of job growth (one in the spring and one in October) the lack of steady improvement in employment has weakened consumer confidence, especially with respect to where the labor market is going in the next six months. Moreover, with the Leading Economic Index declining for five straight months, prospects are that the economy will be growing too slowly to allow the labor market more than an occasional good month in the first half of 2005.”
Crude has rallied back near the $50 a barrel level. Frederic Lasserre, head of commodities research at SG, opined “my feeling is that the market is pricing in something new, a longer term perspective. For the last 20 years the industry has been living with market over-capacity. Now it is shifting to under-capacity for the next 3-5 years.” A slowing economy, in my view, may reduce demand from the U.S., but an energized China and India can make up for much of the potential slack.
In the latter part of November, the University of Michigan sentiment index weakened to 92.8 from 95.5 earlier in the month. In October, the index stood at 91.7.
For the week ended Nov. 19, the Energy Dept stated U.S. natural gas stocks fell by a whopping 49 billion cubic feet rather than the expected 8 billion. On that news, futures soared. Crude stocks fell by 1.2 million barrels.
Germany’s business assessment and business expectations indices fell in November from October to a 14-month low. Unemployment levels stand at a 5-year high.
In the race for governor in the state of Washington, almost 3 million votes were cast. In an upset, Rossi beat Gregoire. The margin was 42 votes, and yes, there was a recount.
On page 1,112 of the 3,600-page massive spending bill, the office of Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D, discovered a provision that would allow lawmakers access to individuals’ tax returns. Republican congressional leaders blamed the provision’s late night insertion on a staff member working for Rep. Ernest Istook, R-Okla. What are the chances this was a clerical error?
Short-term yields broke above 3% for the first time since mid-2002. The two-year Treasury note traded at 3.01%. On Tuesday, $24 billion of these notes were auctioned at 2.945%. Ten year-Treasury bonds stand at a yield of 4.2%.
U.S. new home sales rose 0.2% in October to an annual rate of 1.226 million, the third highest ever. The median price of a single family home in October rose to $221,800, a 14% gain from a year ago. On the other hand, sales of previously owned homes fell 0.1% in October to an annual rate of 6.76 million. According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of previously owned homes account for 85% of the U.S. residential real estate market.
Sir John Templeton: “ If you do not fall on your knees each day with overwhelming gratitude for your blessing--your multiplying multitudes of blessings—then you just have not yet seen the big picture.”
This Thanksgiving there will be too many families missing their loved ones. Some have passed on as a result of the years, some from poor health, and some due to war. Since the Fallujah offensive began on Nov. 7, at least 868 of our troops have been wounded, and since the war began, 9,326 U.S. troops have been wounded. At least 1,228 members of the U.S. military have died since March 2003. We give thanks to each and every U.S. service member, and forever give thanks and remember their bravery and their dedication to duty.
Tecumseh, Shawnee Chief: “When you arise in the morning, give thanks for the morning light, for your life and strength. Give thanks for your food and the joy of living. If you see no reason for giving thanks, the fault lies in yourself.”
Nissan Motor Co Ltd will suspend operations at 3 of its 4 domestic plants for 5 days due to a shortage of steel.
Native American proverb: “The frog does not drink up the pond in which he lives.”
Japan’s trade surplus rose 8.8% from a year ago.
The euro rose above $1.32 for the first time. Gold traded overnight at $450 an ounce.
The Conference Board’s Help-Wanted Advertising Index increased one point in October to 37. It was 36 one year ago. In the last three months, help-wanted advertising declined in six of the nine U.S. regions. Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein stated “despite the outsized job gain in October, the measure of labor demand going forward remains relatively flat, as does the number signing up for their unemployment checks. Both initial jobless claims and want-ad volume have remained flat since early 2004. Except for two outbursts of job growth (one in the spring and one in October) the lack of steady improvement in employment has weakened consumer confidence, especially with respect to where the labor market is going in the next six months. Moreover, with the Leading Economic Index declining for five straight months, prospects are that the economy will be growing too slowly to allow the labor market more than an occasional good month in the first half of 2005.”
Crude has rallied back near the $50 a barrel level. Frederic Lasserre, head of commodities research at SG, opined “my feeling is that the market is pricing in something new, a longer term perspective. For the last 20 years the industry has been living with market over-capacity. Now it is shifting to under-capacity for the next 3-5 years.” A slowing economy, in my view, may reduce demand from the U.S., but an energized China and India can make up for much of the potential slack.
In the latter part of November, the University of Michigan sentiment index weakened to 92.8 from 95.5 earlier in the month. In October, the index stood at 91.7.
For the week ended Nov. 19, the Energy Dept stated U.S. natural gas stocks fell by a whopping 49 billion cubic feet rather than the expected 8 billion. On that news, futures soared. Crude stocks fell by 1.2 million barrels.
Germany’s business assessment and business expectations indices fell in November from October to a 14-month low. Unemployment levels stand at a 5-year high.
In the race for governor in the state of Washington, almost 3 million votes were cast. In an upset, Rossi beat Gregoire. The margin was 42 votes, and yes, there was a recount.
On page 1,112 of the 3,600-page massive spending bill, the office of Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D, discovered a provision that would allow lawmakers access to individuals’ tax returns. Republican congressional leaders blamed the provision’s late night insertion on a staff member working for Rep. Ernest Istook, R-Okla. What are the chances this was a clerical error?
Short-term yields broke above 3% for the first time since mid-2002. The two-year Treasury note traded at 3.01%. On Tuesday, $24 billion of these notes were auctioned at 2.945%. Ten year-Treasury bonds stand at a yield of 4.2%.
U.S. new home sales rose 0.2% in October to an annual rate of 1.226 million, the third highest ever. The median price of a single family home in October rose to $221,800, a 14% gain from a year ago. On the other hand, sales of previously owned homes fell 0.1% in October to an annual rate of 6.76 million. According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of previously owned homes account for 85% of the U.S. residential real estate market.
Wednesday, November 24, 2004
11/24/04 Sharing And Thanksgiving
Fools Crow, Ceremonial Chief of the Teton Sioux: “The survival of the world depends upon our sharing what we have and working together. If we don’t, the whole world will die. First the plant, and next the people.”
Phyllis Diller: “My cooking is so bad my kids thought Thanksgiving was to commemorate Pearl Harbor.”
Sadi, The Gulistan: “Once, when my feet were bare, and I had not the means of obtaining shoes I came to the chief of Kufah in a state of much dejection, and saw there a man who had no feet. I returned thanks to God and acknowledged his mercies, and endured my want of shoes with patience.”
As we move into the holiday season, consumers often focus more on price markdowns than the special offerings they might find at home. Holidays were not meant for spending but rather for sharing love and kindness. Thanksgiving is not for one day of the year. It is an every day event. We can all improve in the sharing with others and in giving thanks.
Wal-Mart is taking a major step. The company will allow unions in its stores in China.
Due to disappointing results at its mortgage unit, H&R Block reported a $52 million quarter loss versus a $10 million profit in the year-ago period. The company reduced its forecast for the fiscal year.
The euro made a new all-time high at 131.60 versus the dollar. Crude is holding presently around $48.60 a barrel and gold around $448 an ounce.
According to SEMI, the October book-to-bill ratio was 0.96. That means that $96 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month. Stanley Myers, president and CEO of SEMI, stated that the overall semiconductor equipment sector “is several months into a period of order softening. Total equipment bookings for North American producers have declined 13% from the cyclic peak observed in June. Given recent announcements from several equipment companies, continued moderation in orders is expected until end market visibility strengthens for the semiconductor manufacturers.”
Hewlett-Packard, in an 8-K filing, stated that it expects expenses for workforce reductions in 2005 will total approximately $200 million, cutting earnings by about 4 cents per share. They mentioned that jobs “across HP’s businesses” will be affected; however, they did not state how many employees would lose their jobs.
The Conference Board’s survey of 5,000 households revealed that about 33% of all households will spend $500 or more on holiday gifts, with 37% spending $200-$500 and the remaining 30% planning to spend less than $200. About 29% of all consumers will buy holiday gifts on the Internet, up from 28% a year ago. Compared with last year, the Conference Board stated there could be an overall 4.5% lift in retail sales.
According to the IMF, the dollar’s share of the world’s foreign currency holdings fell to 63.8% at the end of 2003 from 66.9% in 2002 while the euro’s share rose to 19.7% from 16.7% in that period. It is safe to state that we will see similar relationships with the dollar and the euro by year-end 2004. With a continuing dollar-negative trend, it is difficult to envision the funding of our record budget and current account deficits without interest rates rising more than anticipated.
Forty two percent of all UPS revenue moves by air. Should UPS management move to break the Teamsters Canada strike by having non-union management pilots fly struck goods out of Canada and into the United States, then the UPS pilots union will give 24 hour notice before withdrawing their pilot services worldwide.
Cingular Wireless will cut about 7,000 jobs, or about 10% of its workforce.
In the past year, U.S. existing home sales rose 5.6% and the national median home price in October rose to $187,000, an 8.8% increase over the past 12 months.
To compete with Boeing’s 7E7, Airbus will announce the A350-800 that will seat 250 passengers and fly 7,650 miles and the A350-900 that would seat 300 passengers and fly 6,600 miles. The German newspaper Handelsblatt stated that Aer Lingus is already in talks with Airbus about the purchase of a dozen A350s. Boeing has only announced two firm customer orders for its 7E7.
The yield curve continues to flatten with two-year Treasury notes yielding 2.98% and 10-year bonds standing at 4.17% yields.
According to Project Bread, poverty and hunger are at a new high in the state of Massachusetts as more jobs have been lost at a faster rate than any other state in the union over the last three years. Between 200 and 2003, the demand for emergency food has increased by 38% with Project Bread providing 40 million meals a year. So far this winter, calls to Project Bread’s Foodsource Hotline have increased by 50%.
When it comes to spending, the federal government spends during all seasons of the year. It is amazing to watch t the President and the Congress spend money they don't have. For example, take October. There was a 35% increase in government orders for defense aircraft. Bookings for non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft, declined 3.6%, the first decline in 5 months. New orders for U.S. October durable goods declined 0.4% after September's figures were revised upward from a 0.2% increase to a rise of 0.9%.
Fools Crow, Ceremonial Chief of the Teton Sioux: “The survival of the world depends upon our sharing what we have and working together. If we don’t, the whole world will die. First the plant, and next the people.”
Phyllis Diller: “My cooking is so bad my kids thought Thanksgiving was to commemorate Pearl Harbor.”
Sadi, The Gulistan: “Once, when my feet were bare, and I had not the means of obtaining shoes I came to the chief of Kufah in a state of much dejection, and saw there a man who had no feet. I returned thanks to God and acknowledged his mercies, and endured my want of shoes with patience.”
As we move into the holiday season, consumers often focus more on price markdowns than the special offerings they might find at home. Holidays were not meant for spending but rather for sharing love and kindness. Thanksgiving is not for one day of the year. It is an every day event. We can all improve in the sharing with others and in giving thanks.
Wal-Mart is taking a major step. The company will allow unions in its stores in China.
Due to disappointing results at its mortgage unit, H&R Block reported a $52 million quarter loss versus a $10 million profit in the year-ago period. The company reduced its forecast for the fiscal year.
The euro made a new all-time high at 131.60 versus the dollar. Crude is holding presently around $48.60 a barrel and gold around $448 an ounce.
According to SEMI, the October book-to-bill ratio was 0.96. That means that $96 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month. Stanley Myers, president and CEO of SEMI, stated that the overall semiconductor equipment sector “is several months into a period of order softening. Total equipment bookings for North American producers have declined 13% from the cyclic peak observed in June. Given recent announcements from several equipment companies, continued moderation in orders is expected until end market visibility strengthens for the semiconductor manufacturers.”
Hewlett-Packard, in an 8-K filing, stated that it expects expenses for workforce reductions in 2005 will total approximately $200 million, cutting earnings by about 4 cents per share. They mentioned that jobs “across HP’s businesses” will be affected; however, they did not state how many employees would lose their jobs.
The Conference Board’s survey of 5,000 households revealed that about 33% of all households will spend $500 or more on holiday gifts, with 37% spending $200-$500 and the remaining 30% planning to spend less than $200. About 29% of all consumers will buy holiday gifts on the Internet, up from 28% a year ago. Compared with last year, the Conference Board stated there could be an overall 4.5% lift in retail sales.
According to the IMF, the dollar’s share of the world’s foreign currency holdings fell to 63.8% at the end of 2003 from 66.9% in 2002 while the euro’s share rose to 19.7% from 16.7% in that period. It is safe to state that we will see similar relationships with the dollar and the euro by year-end 2004. With a continuing dollar-negative trend, it is difficult to envision the funding of our record budget and current account deficits without interest rates rising more than anticipated.
Forty two percent of all UPS revenue moves by air. Should UPS management move to break the Teamsters Canada strike by having non-union management pilots fly struck goods out of Canada and into the United States, then the UPS pilots union will give 24 hour notice before withdrawing their pilot services worldwide.
Cingular Wireless will cut about 7,000 jobs, or about 10% of its workforce.
In the past year, U.S. existing home sales rose 5.6% and the national median home price in October rose to $187,000, an 8.8% increase over the past 12 months.
To compete with Boeing’s 7E7, Airbus will announce the A350-800 that will seat 250 passengers and fly 7,650 miles and the A350-900 that would seat 300 passengers and fly 6,600 miles. The German newspaper Handelsblatt stated that Aer Lingus is already in talks with Airbus about the purchase of a dozen A350s. Boeing has only announced two firm customer orders for its 7E7.
The yield curve continues to flatten with two-year Treasury notes yielding 2.98% and 10-year bonds standing at 4.17% yields.
According to Project Bread, poverty and hunger are at a new high in the state of Massachusetts as more jobs have been lost at a faster rate than any other state in the union over the last three years. Between 200 and 2003, the demand for emergency food has increased by 38% with Project Bread providing 40 million meals a year. So far this winter, calls to Project Bread’s Foodsource Hotline have increased by 50%.
When it comes to spending, the federal government spends during all seasons of the year. It is amazing to watch t the President and the Congress spend money they don't have. For example, take October. There was a 35% increase in government orders for defense aircraft. Bookings for non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft, declined 3.6%, the first decline in 5 months. New orders for U.S. October durable goods declined 0.4% after September's figures were revised upward from a 0.2% increase to a rise of 0.9%.
Tuesday, November 23, 2004
11/23/04 China’s Currency
With the close of the G-20 meeting in Berlin, it is timely to discuss China’s currency. Beijing announced that China is not ready to change the current 8.3 yuan peg to the dollar. Gov. Xiaochuan of the People’s Bank of China remarked on Saturday that “it is still not the stage to talk about specific technical arrangement” in changing the exchange rate.” The words were a good deal more heated from Li Ruogo, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China. In an interview he remarked that “China’s custom is that we never blame others for our own problem. For the past 26 years, we never put pressure or problems on to the world. The U.S. has the reverse attitude, whenever they have a problem, they blame others…Under heavy speculation we cannot move towards greater flexibility and under heavy external pressure we cannot. So the best environment for us is to gradually move towards a more flexible exchange rate when people don’t talk about it…The appreciation of the RMB will not solve the problems of unemployment in the U.S. because the cost of labor in China is only about 3% that of U.S. labor—they should give up textiles, shoe-making, and even agriculture probably. They should concentrate on sectors like aerospace and then sell those things to us and we would spend billions on this. We could easily balance the trade.” Ruogo might take an inward look into China. His country will be running a budget deficit in 2005. Their infrastructure problems are overwhelming. China has enough on its plate for decades to come. They are in no position to solve our deficit problem. On the other hand, China has over $500 billion in foreign exchange reserves, and that is not small change.
According to the Pentagon, the military death toll in Iraq for November is at least 101.
Frederick Hayek: “The idea that human kind can shape the world according to wish is what I call the fatal conceit.”
Wal-Mart is jump-starting Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. Last year, one in four shoppers did shop on Black Friday. Between yesterday and Thanksgiving, the company is offering on walmart.com significant savings on electronics, toys, jewelry, and other gifts, such as, women’s and men’s cashmere sweaters for $34.88 and 39.88, respectively. This promotion is well designed and timed in an effort to lure customers who “more than ever are doing their holiday shopping closer and closer to Christmas.” Interestingly, Black Friday was the biggest sales day of 2003, topping Christmas Eve, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. Last year retailers built up large discounts leading up to Black Friday, and this has not been the case in 2004. Delos Smith, economist with the Conference Board, stated “the key to a successful holiday for the industry is not how many presents the kids get. It’s about Uncle Charlie and Aunt Millie. Will they get a gift or not? If the energy costs are high, the secondary players get scratched off the list. It’s the difference between buying a card or a gift that could determine the final outcome.”
Ludwig von Mises: “Government cannot make a person richer, but it can make a person poorer.”
Intel hired 800 people a year in India in the past two years. That rate is expected to continue with the completion of their new building in Bangalore.
Barry Goldwater: “I think every good Christian ought to kick Falwell right in the ass.”
The Canadian dollar is trading near a 12-year high versus the dollar.
According to MasterCard Advisors LLC, U.S. spending on retail and food services during the first two months of November rose 3.7% from a year earlier. The sales gain was roughly half of the 7.6% year-to-year increase for the same period in 2003. This retail data excludes car sales.
According to Edmunds.com, the average days-to-turn, which measures how many days on average it takes to sell vehicles after they arrive at dealerships, was 114 days for 2004 model year vehicles and 29 days for 2005 model year vehicles in October 2004. The average days-to-turn last month was 75 days. It should be noted that previous model year vehicles are making up an increasingly high percentage of new vehicle sales late in the calendar year. In October 2004, 54% of new vehicles sold were 2004 models. In October 2003, 45% of new vehicles sold were 2003 models, and in October 2002, 31% of new vehicles sold were 2002 models. In October 2004, the average discount from MSRP to net price for the 2004 model year vehicles was $5,970, up $481 from the same period a year earlier. Many industry analysts believe your greatest savings will be offered on 2004 models next month.
In October, the unemployment count rose 10,000 in Pennsylvania. Only the construction sector has grown every month of 2004. By contrast, the manufacturing sector has lost jobs 49 out of the past 51 months.
According to a report by Packaged Facts, overall, the organic foods and beverages industry has been experiencing annual growth between 17% and 22% over the past few years, and this market is expected to generate sales of over $32 billion by 2008. That’s good news for long-term holders of Whole Foods stock.
SAS, a business intelligence software company, was founded in 1976. Their revenue has grown steadily to its present $1.34 billion. Jim Goodnight, co-founder of SAS, will co-chair sessions at the World Economic Forum’s India Economic Summit in New Delhi with N.R. Narayana Murthy, chairman of Infosys, and with Shyam Saran, India’s Foreign secretary. In India, SAS enjoys a 22.5% share of the business intelligence software market. SAS is consistently recognized as one of our country’s leading employers.
Hiroshi Watanabe, Japan’s vice-finance minister: “The movement of currencies in the past seven days has been rapid and erratic, meaning this is the proper time to thin of intervention.” History has shown that the market is bigger than a government’s intervention. It will only serve as money poorly spent.
With the close of the G-20 meeting in Berlin, it is timely to discuss China’s currency. Beijing announced that China is not ready to change the current 8.3 yuan peg to the dollar. Gov. Xiaochuan of the People’s Bank of China remarked on Saturday that “it is still not the stage to talk about specific technical arrangement” in changing the exchange rate.” The words were a good deal more heated from Li Ruogo, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China. In an interview he remarked that “China’s custom is that we never blame others for our own problem. For the past 26 years, we never put pressure or problems on to the world. The U.S. has the reverse attitude, whenever they have a problem, they blame others…Under heavy speculation we cannot move towards greater flexibility and under heavy external pressure we cannot. So the best environment for us is to gradually move towards a more flexible exchange rate when people don’t talk about it…The appreciation of the RMB will not solve the problems of unemployment in the U.S. because the cost of labor in China is only about 3% that of U.S. labor—they should give up textiles, shoe-making, and even agriculture probably. They should concentrate on sectors like aerospace and then sell those things to us and we would spend billions on this. We could easily balance the trade.” Ruogo might take an inward look into China. His country will be running a budget deficit in 2005. Their infrastructure problems are overwhelming. China has enough on its plate for decades to come. They are in no position to solve our deficit problem. On the other hand, China has over $500 billion in foreign exchange reserves, and that is not small change.
According to the Pentagon, the military death toll in Iraq for November is at least 101.
Frederick Hayek: “The idea that human kind can shape the world according to wish is what I call the fatal conceit.”
Wal-Mart is jump-starting Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. Last year, one in four shoppers did shop on Black Friday. Between yesterday and Thanksgiving, the company is offering on walmart.com significant savings on electronics, toys, jewelry, and other gifts, such as, women’s and men’s cashmere sweaters for $34.88 and 39.88, respectively. This promotion is well designed and timed in an effort to lure customers who “more than ever are doing their holiday shopping closer and closer to Christmas.” Interestingly, Black Friday was the biggest sales day of 2003, topping Christmas Eve, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. Last year retailers built up large discounts leading up to Black Friday, and this has not been the case in 2004. Delos Smith, economist with the Conference Board, stated “the key to a successful holiday for the industry is not how many presents the kids get. It’s about Uncle Charlie and Aunt Millie. Will they get a gift or not? If the energy costs are high, the secondary players get scratched off the list. It’s the difference between buying a card or a gift that could determine the final outcome.”
Ludwig von Mises: “Government cannot make a person richer, but it can make a person poorer.”
Intel hired 800 people a year in India in the past two years. That rate is expected to continue with the completion of their new building in Bangalore.
Barry Goldwater: “I think every good Christian ought to kick Falwell right in the ass.”
The Canadian dollar is trading near a 12-year high versus the dollar.
According to MasterCard Advisors LLC, U.S. spending on retail and food services during the first two months of November rose 3.7% from a year earlier. The sales gain was roughly half of the 7.6% year-to-year increase for the same period in 2003. This retail data excludes car sales.
According to Edmunds.com, the average days-to-turn, which measures how many days on average it takes to sell vehicles after they arrive at dealerships, was 114 days for 2004 model year vehicles and 29 days for 2005 model year vehicles in October 2004. The average days-to-turn last month was 75 days. It should be noted that previous model year vehicles are making up an increasingly high percentage of new vehicle sales late in the calendar year. In October 2004, 54% of new vehicles sold were 2004 models. In October 2003, 45% of new vehicles sold were 2003 models, and in October 2002, 31% of new vehicles sold were 2002 models. In October 2004, the average discount from MSRP to net price for the 2004 model year vehicles was $5,970, up $481 from the same period a year earlier. Many industry analysts believe your greatest savings will be offered on 2004 models next month.
In October, the unemployment count rose 10,000 in Pennsylvania. Only the construction sector has grown every month of 2004. By contrast, the manufacturing sector has lost jobs 49 out of the past 51 months.
According to a report by Packaged Facts, overall, the organic foods and beverages industry has been experiencing annual growth between 17% and 22% over the past few years, and this market is expected to generate sales of over $32 billion by 2008. That’s good news for long-term holders of Whole Foods stock.
SAS, a business intelligence software company, was founded in 1976. Their revenue has grown steadily to its present $1.34 billion. Jim Goodnight, co-founder of SAS, will co-chair sessions at the World Economic Forum’s India Economic Summit in New Delhi with N.R. Narayana Murthy, chairman of Infosys, and with Shyam Saran, India’s Foreign secretary. In India, SAS enjoys a 22.5% share of the business intelligence software market. SAS is consistently recognized as one of our country’s leading employers.
Hiroshi Watanabe, Japan’s vice-finance minister: “The movement of currencies in the past seven days has been rapid and erratic, meaning this is the proper time to thin of intervention.” History has shown that the market is bigger than a government’s intervention. It will only serve as money poorly spent.
Monday, November 22, 2004
11/22/04 Rebounding Fuel Prices
Those shorting crude seemed to have forgotten about the Thanksgiving holiday season. It is a time for drivers to take to the road. In fact, according to the AAA, some 31 million Americans will drive 50 miles or more from home this Thanksgiving. That is 35 more than last year, and this amounts to a lot of fuel consumption. It is not surprising that crude is climbing back to $50 a barrel, and now stands at about $49.50 a barrel. The rising price of fuel was one of the reasons that the IMF lowered its global growth forecast for 2005 from 4.3% to 4%. The other main reason was the U.S. budget deficit. The year-over-year increase in our national debt has grown to a record $558 billion.
In case anyone thought irrational exuberance on Wall Street died with the dotcom era, Piper Jaffray upped its target price on Apple Computer from $52 to $100 a share. The stock closed at $55 on Friday.
ElBaradei, head of the IAEA, confirmed that Iran has produced several tons of uranium hexafluoride. After the cow has left the barn, so to speak, Iran has agreed to suspend uranium enrichment operations.
Krispy Kreme will not project its results for the fourth quarter.
GM is slowly moving its engineering work from North America to Korea and China. Pontiac will cut GTO production about 30% next year. GM stated on Friday that it will offer zero percent financing for as much as 72 months on most 2004 vehicles.
Retail studies show that shoppers redeeming gift cards spend an average of 15% to 20% more than the face value of the card.
Many seniors who live on fixed incomes are getting squeezed by rising costs for heating oil and natural gas. It could mean average monthly bills rising $30 to $50 during this winter. That may not register with those on Wall Street averaging six-figure incomes; however, it will have some impact on consumer spending.
The number of drug patents expiring in 2005 will be lower than it has been over the last several years.
Toshihiko Fukui, governor of the Bank of Japan: “We are seeing some disturbances. Our concern is whether this temporary pause is really short-lived or not…The sustainability of the Japanese economy depends on long the IT inventory adjustment lasts and how long the negative impact from the overseas economy continues.”
Mexico’s stock market reached all-time highs last week. Considering that 90% of Mexico’s exports travel to the U.S., I question the sustainability of the lofty share prices.
Those shorting crude seemed to have forgotten about the Thanksgiving holiday season. It is a time for drivers to take to the road. In fact, according to the AAA, some 31 million Americans will drive 50 miles or more from home this Thanksgiving. That is 35 more than last year, and this amounts to a lot of fuel consumption. It is not surprising that crude is climbing back to $50 a barrel, and now stands at about $49.50 a barrel. The rising price of fuel was one of the reasons that the IMF lowered its global growth forecast for 2005 from 4.3% to 4%. The other main reason was the U.S. budget deficit. The year-over-year increase in our national debt has grown to a record $558 billion.
In case anyone thought irrational exuberance on Wall Street died with the dotcom era, Piper Jaffray upped its target price on Apple Computer from $52 to $100 a share. The stock closed at $55 on Friday.
ElBaradei, head of the IAEA, confirmed that Iran has produced several tons of uranium hexafluoride. After the cow has left the barn, so to speak, Iran has agreed to suspend uranium enrichment operations.
Krispy Kreme will not project its results for the fourth quarter.
GM is slowly moving its engineering work from North America to Korea and China. Pontiac will cut GTO production about 30% next year. GM stated on Friday that it will offer zero percent financing for as much as 72 months on most 2004 vehicles.
Retail studies show that shoppers redeeming gift cards spend an average of 15% to 20% more than the face value of the card.
Many seniors who live on fixed incomes are getting squeezed by rising costs for heating oil and natural gas. It could mean average monthly bills rising $30 to $50 during this winter. That may not register with those on Wall Street averaging six-figure incomes; however, it will have some impact on consumer spending.
The number of drug patents expiring in 2005 will be lower than it has been over the last several years.
Toshihiko Fukui, governor of the Bank of Japan: “We are seeing some disturbances. Our concern is whether this temporary pause is really short-lived or not…The sustainability of the Japanese economy depends on long the IT inventory adjustment lasts and how long the negative impact from the overseas economy continues.”
Mexico’s stock market reached all-time highs last week. Considering that 90% of Mexico’s exports travel to the U.S., I question the sustainability of the lofty share prices.
Sunday, November 21, 2004
11/21/04 The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Rep. Charles Stenholm: “When both extremes are talking nonsense, there must be some way of getting them together that makes sense.” Sadly, at present, there appears little will to find a way. Within the $388 billion spending bill, the Weldon amendment was included. As Nancy Pelosi describes, “the Weldon amendment restricts access to abortion counseling, referral, and information…If a hospital, health insurance company, or doctor opposes Roe v. Wade, they could simply ignore it…Any law or regulation currently on the books to protect access to reproductive health services is at risk…Federal dollars should not be used to deny the federally-protected right to choose.”
By insisting on unrelated provisions, House Republicans were unable to enact recommendations of the 9/11 Commission. In fact, they reneged on a bipartisan agreement that might have strengthened our intelligence agencies.
Groucho Marx: “Military intelligence is a contradiction in terms.”
Calusewitz: “A great part of the information obtained in war is contradictory, a still greater part is false, and by far the greatest part is of doubtful character.”
According to the Pentagon, 1220 Americans have died in the Iraq war, and approximately 9,000 U.S. troops have been wounded in action.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com: “Once the Chinese revalue, almost three-fourths of consumer goods imported into the United States will see price increases.”
Global quotas on textiles and garments are set to be phased on Jan. 1, 2005. According to the WTO, the U.S. imported $82.8 billion in textiles and clothing in 2003 and $58.2 billion in the first 8 months of 2004. The U.S. textile and clothing industries employ 2 million workers and produce a yearly output that exceeds $50 billion. China’s textile and clothing exports account for 30% of the country’s total exports, and 90 million people are employed in these industries. China anticipates that, with the elimination of quotas, textiles and garments can grow to 50% of their exports. India is also strong in textiles. They are expanding factories and expect a significant increase in textile and clothing exports, and believe these industries can expand to 15% of their total exports. Over the past two years I have described the number of plant closings and the number of jobs lost in the U.S. textile and clothing industries. Unfortunately, I think you will see more of the 2 million workers employed in these fields cut from the workforce and more plants will close. It will continue to adversely impact many communities, and many are in the South. Hopefully, some of the “values voters” can provide new sources of income for those left unemployed. Now we can witness how the ability of mainstream moral issues and the effort to define the moral infrastructure of our society can combine to pay the bills of those out of work.
According to the Arizona Republic, housing is metropolitan Phoenix’s biggest industry. One out of every three dollars in the city’s $140 billion economy is generated by the housing industry.
Lucent has 31,800 active employees attempting to support the benefits, including healthcare, for 125,000 retirees and tens of thousands of their spouses. This is a growing story at many companies throughout the U.S.
Our farmers are achieving some record crops, such as, 11.7 billion bushels of corn and more than 3 billion bushes of soybeans. The size of the harvests has driven down the price of many crops. According to the Farm Bill, when grain prices fall below minimum levels, the earnings for farmers gain an assist by U.S. support payments. That will definitely take place with corn growers.
Richard Arvedlund, money manager: “It will not be an exciting environment for the stock market. A slowdown in GDP growth implies profit growth will slow down sharply, particularly in the cyclical areas, which have been the market leaders.”
According to William Hester, CFA, since 1950 short-term growth in S&P 500 earnings and market performance show a near-zero correlation. Patricia Dechow and Ccatherine Schrand, professors of accounting at the University of Michigan and the University of Pennsylvania, respectively, suggest that "decline in the relationship between earnings and stock returns can be viewed as a decline in earnings quality." It might be wise to focus on any gap between company earnings and free cash flow. That can prove a helpful pathway towards the analysis of a company's quality of earnings.
Rep. Charles Stenholm: “When both extremes are talking nonsense, there must be some way of getting them together that makes sense.” Sadly, at present, there appears little will to find a way. Within the $388 billion spending bill, the Weldon amendment was included. As Nancy Pelosi describes, “the Weldon amendment restricts access to abortion counseling, referral, and information…If a hospital, health insurance company, or doctor opposes Roe v. Wade, they could simply ignore it…Any law or regulation currently on the books to protect access to reproductive health services is at risk…Federal dollars should not be used to deny the federally-protected right to choose.”
By insisting on unrelated provisions, House Republicans were unable to enact recommendations of the 9/11 Commission. In fact, they reneged on a bipartisan agreement that might have strengthened our intelligence agencies.
Groucho Marx: “Military intelligence is a contradiction in terms.”
Calusewitz: “A great part of the information obtained in war is contradictory, a still greater part is false, and by far the greatest part is of doubtful character.”
According to the Pentagon, 1220 Americans have died in the Iraq war, and approximately 9,000 U.S. troops have been wounded in action.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com: “Once the Chinese revalue, almost three-fourths of consumer goods imported into the United States will see price increases.”
Global quotas on textiles and garments are set to be phased on Jan. 1, 2005. According to the WTO, the U.S. imported $82.8 billion in textiles and clothing in 2003 and $58.2 billion in the first 8 months of 2004. The U.S. textile and clothing industries employ 2 million workers and produce a yearly output that exceeds $50 billion. China’s textile and clothing exports account for 30% of the country’s total exports, and 90 million people are employed in these industries. China anticipates that, with the elimination of quotas, textiles and garments can grow to 50% of their exports. India is also strong in textiles. They are expanding factories and expect a significant increase in textile and clothing exports, and believe these industries can expand to 15% of their total exports. Over the past two years I have described the number of plant closings and the number of jobs lost in the U.S. textile and clothing industries. Unfortunately, I think you will see more of the 2 million workers employed in these fields cut from the workforce and more plants will close. It will continue to adversely impact many communities, and many are in the South. Hopefully, some of the “values voters” can provide new sources of income for those left unemployed. Now we can witness how the ability of mainstream moral issues and the effort to define the moral infrastructure of our society can combine to pay the bills of those out of work.
According to the Arizona Republic, housing is metropolitan Phoenix’s biggest industry. One out of every three dollars in the city’s $140 billion economy is generated by the housing industry.
Lucent has 31,800 active employees attempting to support the benefits, including healthcare, for 125,000 retirees and tens of thousands of their spouses. This is a growing story at many companies throughout the U.S.
Our farmers are achieving some record crops, such as, 11.7 billion bushels of corn and more than 3 billion bushes of soybeans. The size of the harvests has driven down the price of many crops. According to the Farm Bill, when grain prices fall below minimum levels, the earnings for farmers gain an assist by U.S. support payments. That will definitely take place with corn growers.
Richard Arvedlund, money manager: “It will not be an exciting environment for the stock market. A slowdown in GDP growth implies profit growth will slow down sharply, particularly in the cyclical areas, which have been the market leaders.”
According to William Hester, CFA, since 1950 short-term growth in S&P 500 earnings and market performance show a near-zero correlation. Patricia Dechow and Ccatherine Schrand, professors of accounting at the University of Michigan and the University of Pennsylvania, respectively, suggest that "decline in the relationship between earnings and stock returns can be viewed as a decline in earnings quality." It might be wise to focus on any gap between company earnings and free cash flow. That can prove a helpful pathway towards the analysis of a company's quality of earnings.
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