11/12/05 Consider
Heading into the 2005-06 winter heating season, electricity prices are 46% higher than a year ago, despite recent declines, according to Platts, the energy information business of The McGraw-Hill Companies.
Average U.S. monthly natural-gas spot prices for November rose by 4.3% from October, to $12.42/MMBtu -- a level 68.6% above the November 2004 average and the highest average since the wholesale market was deregulated in the mid-1980s, according to data released by Platts.
The number of U.S. service members who have been killed since the start of the Iraq war in March 2003 now totals at least 2,061.
Peter Drucker: "The most important thing in communication is to hear what isn't being said."
Build-A-Bear Workshop has expressed interest in buying Club Libby Lu stores from Sak’s Inc., according to a report in the St. Louis Business Journal. Targeting pre-teen girls, Club Libby Lu sells apparel, accessories and bath and body products in a fun, interactive shopping environment. Too Inc. and Claire’s Stores are also reported to have expressed interest in Club Libby Lu, which has 49 stores.
According to Bloomberg, "The Federal Reserve announced today it will discontinue reporting data on the broadest measure of the money supply, M3, effective March 23, 2006."
Due to Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, have you considered the size of the mortgage defaults that will occur in 2006? What will the impact be on banks and holders of MBS?
Frank Fernandez, chief economist of the Securities Industry Association, stated the U.S. securities industry will earn at least $24 billion before taxes in 2005.
This week's BS award goes to William Poole, President of the St. Louis Fed. He stated "current account deficits are being driven primarily by foreign demand for U.S. assets rather than by any structural imbalance in the U.S. economy itself."
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange plans to begin home-price trading in April. Investors will be able to buy contracts on the future direction of housing prices in the 10 cities, similar to what investors do now with oil or corn.
China has overtaken Japan to become Dell's third-biggest market for unit sales.
Official Chinese government figures show that total net savings at the end of September were 9.0 trln yuan, equivalent to nearly 70 pct of GDP. Now consider the lack of savings in our consumer-based U.S. economy. The difference is staggering.
China is planning regulations that would require the nation's oil companies to build their own refined oil reserves to guard against possible shortages. Wang Xiaochuan, vice director in charge of commercial reforms at the Ministry of Commerce, said that discussions on the regulations are now under way and the rules will be put in place shortly. "It's necessary for oil companies to build reserves as refined oil is an important resource for the proper operation of the economy," Wang told the 2005 China Petroleum Forum. Wang didn't disclose the capacity of the required reserves, but he said it would be within 20 percent of China's current refined oil consumption, and the latter is approaching 9 million tons on an annual basis.
Wal-Mart de Mexico SA, Latin America's largest retailer, said same-store sales grew for an eighth straight month in October as it benefited from expanding its number of outlets and taking market share from competitors.
Sales at stores open 12 months or more rose 8.6 percent in October from a year earlier, the biggest advance since March.
Peter Drucker: "The purpose of business is to create and keep a customer."
Consider the potential for monetary disorder in the U.S. and balance that with the knowledge of the VIX (the volatility index) only trading 18% higher than a multi-year low. Complacency can be the breeding ground for margin calls.
Norman Mailer: "America is a hurricane, and the only people who do not hear the sound are those fortunate if incredibly stupid and smug White Protestants who live in the center, in the serene eye of the big wind."
Saturday, November 12, 2005
Friday, November 11, 2005
Facts
11/11/05
It's quite ironic that on Veterans' Day almost six in 10 — 57% — said they do not think the Bush administration has high ethical standards and the same portion stated President Bush, our nations Commander-in-Chief, is not honest, an AP-Ipsos poll found. Just over four in 10 say the administration has high ethical standards and that Bush is honest. There is something definitely wrong with this picture.
In October, the 0.3 percent decline in the price index of U.S. imports marked the first decrease for the index since May and only the second monthly drop recorded in 2005. Prior to the October decline, import prices rose 6.3 percent between May and September, driven by a 36.2 percent jump in petroleum prices over that period. In October, petroleum prices decreased 4.4 percent, but still rose 30.9 percent over the past 12 months. In contrast, nonpetroleum prices continued to rise, increasing 0.8 percent last month after advancing 1.0 percent in September. For the year ended in October, prices of nonpetroleum imports rose 3.7 percent while overall import prices increased 8.1 percent.
The October advance in nonpetroleum prices was driven by a 4.4 percent
increase in the price index for nonpetroleum industrial supplies and materials. For the second consecutive month, a sharp rise in natural gas prices led the increase. Excluding prices for petroleum and for natural gas, prices for industrial supplies and materials increased 1.6 percent and overall import prices rose 0.3 percent. Higher prices for chemicals, metals, and building materials also contributed to the increase in prices for nonpetroleum industrial supplies and materials, which increased 16.1 percent over the past 12 months. Foods, feeds, and beverages prices rose 1.1 percent in October, led by higher prices for fish, vegetables, and meat. Prices for foods, feeds, and beverages advanced 5.2 percent for the year ended in October.
In contrast, prices for capital goods and for consumer goods declined in
October, falling 0.3 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. Lower computer
prices again led the decline in the price index for capital goods, which decreased 0.5 percent for the year ended in October. Consumer goods prices fell for the third time in the past four months but increased 1.2 percent over the past year. Automotive vehicles prices were unchanged in October and increased 0.6 percent over the past 12 months.
Light, sweet crude for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 71 cents to $57.09 a barrel by midday in Europe. On Thursday, the contract fell to $57.80, the lowest level for the front-month contract since July 21.
Brent crude slipped 83 cents to $54.85 on the ICE Futures exchange in London.
Heating oil was down more than 2 cents at $1.7208, while gasoline slid nearly 3 cents to $1.4794 a gallon. Natural gas fell a cent to $11.370 per 1,000 cubic feet.
According to the Washington Post, in the past year, D.C. area home sales have declined sharply, the inventory of unsold homes is dramatically up, and prices have flattened or fallen.
The September trade deficit surged to a record $66.1 billion. Of course, many economists opine that deficits don't matter.
Central banks purchased 55% of yesterday's $13 billion 10-year treasury auction at a yield of 4.58%. Before you get too excited, the bid-to-cover was lower than in the previous auction, and the question remains whether central banks were bidding with their own money and/or representing other buyers.
Dr. Douglas Busch: "Behavioral psychology is the science of pulling habits out of rats."
The University of Michigan consumer index rose this month to 79.2 from 74.2, and this has led pundits to believe this will be a buoyant holiday shopping season. In addition, consumer confidence continues to rise from its low point two months ago, according to the November results of the RBC CASH (Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household) Index. The positive trend could signal a better-than-expected season for retailers who - in light of high energyprices, hurricane recovery efforts, and rising interest rates - were bracing for the worst.
The CASH Index, which is derived from telephone interviews with
1,000 individuals across the U.S., this week, stands at 81.0 for November,
compared to 66.8 in October - but still below last year's November results of
89.8.
Improved confidence lifted the RBC Expectations Index, set at 100 in
January 2002, to 44.5 for November, an increase of 0.9 in October and the
highest it's been since May. November's results mark a sharp reversal since
September, when the index plunged to a negative 13.5; but expectations are
still not as high as they were last year in November, when the index stood at
69.
Mark Twain: " Life does not consist mainly, or even largely, of facts and happenings. It consists mainly of the storm of thought that is forever flowing through one's head."
According to the current issue of the journal Health Affairs, about 21 percent of private health spending in California goes to insurance paperwork. That translates into about $26 billion a year in California, according to the study's main author, Dr. James G. Kahn, professor at the Institute of Health Policy Studies at UCSF.
Jessamyn West: "We want the facts to fit the preconceptions. When they don't it is easier to ignore the facts than to change the preconceptions."
Silver Lake Partners Friday said it agreed to buy Serena Software Inc. for about $1.2 billion. Under the deal, which is expected to close in the first quarter, Serena stockholders will receive $24 in cash for each of their shares.
India's industrial growth slowed to 7.2 percent in the July-September quarter from 10.4 percent in the previous quarter, according to government data released today.
It's quite ironic that on Veterans' Day almost six in 10 — 57% — said they do not think the Bush administration has high ethical standards and the same portion stated President Bush, our nations Commander-in-Chief, is not honest, an AP-Ipsos poll found. Just over four in 10 say the administration has high ethical standards and that Bush is honest. There is something definitely wrong with this picture.
In October, the 0.3 percent decline in the price index of U.S. imports marked the first decrease for the index since May and only the second monthly drop recorded in 2005. Prior to the October decline, import prices rose 6.3 percent between May and September, driven by a 36.2 percent jump in petroleum prices over that period. In October, petroleum prices decreased 4.4 percent, but still rose 30.9 percent over the past 12 months. In contrast, nonpetroleum prices continued to rise, increasing 0.8 percent last month after advancing 1.0 percent in September. For the year ended in October, prices of nonpetroleum imports rose 3.7 percent while overall import prices increased 8.1 percent.
The October advance in nonpetroleum prices was driven by a 4.4 percent
increase in the price index for nonpetroleum industrial supplies and materials. For the second consecutive month, a sharp rise in natural gas prices led the increase. Excluding prices for petroleum and for natural gas, prices for industrial supplies and materials increased 1.6 percent and overall import prices rose 0.3 percent. Higher prices for chemicals, metals, and building materials also contributed to the increase in prices for nonpetroleum industrial supplies and materials, which increased 16.1 percent over the past 12 months. Foods, feeds, and beverages prices rose 1.1 percent in October, led by higher prices for fish, vegetables, and meat. Prices for foods, feeds, and beverages advanced 5.2 percent for the year ended in October.
In contrast, prices for capital goods and for consumer goods declined in
October, falling 0.3 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. Lower computer
prices again led the decline in the price index for capital goods, which decreased 0.5 percent for the year ended in October. Consumer goods prices fell for the third time in the past four months but increased 1.2 percent over the past year. Automotive vehicles prices were unchanged in October and increased 0.6 percent over the past 12 months.
Light, sweet crude for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 71 cents to $57.09 a barrel by midday in Europe. On Thursday, the contract fell to $57.80, the lowest level for the front-month contract since July 21.
Brent crude slipped 83 cents to $54.85 on the ICE Futures exchange in London.
Heating oil was down more than 2 cents at $1.7208, while gasoline slid nearly 3 cents to $1.4794 a gallon. Natural gas fell a cent to $11.370 per 1,000 cubic feet.
According to the Washington Post, in the past year, D.C. area home sales have declined sharply, the inventory of unsold homes is dramatically up, and prices have flattened or fallen.
The September trade deficit surged to a record $66.1 billion. Of course, many economists opine that deficits don't matter.
Central banks purchased 55% of yesterday's $13 billion 10-year treasury auction at a yield of 4.58%. Before you get too excited, the bid-to-cover was lower than in the previous auction, and the question remains whether central banks were bidding with their own money and/or representing other buyers.
Dr. Douglas Busch: "Behavioral psychology is the science of pulling habits out of rats."
The University of Michigan consumer index rose this month to 79.2 from 74.2, and this has led pundits to believe this will be a buoyant holiday shopping season. In addition, consumer confidence continues to rise from its low point two months ago, according to the November results of the RBC CASH (Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household) Index. The positive trend could signal a better-than-expected season for retailers who - in light of high energyprices, hurricane recovery efforts, and rising interest rates - were bracing for the worst.
The CASH Index, which is derived from telephone interviews with
1,000 individuals across the U.S., this week, stands at 81.0 for November,
compared to 66.8 in October - but still below last year's November results of
89.8.
Improved confidence lifted the RBC Expectations Index, set at 100 in
January 2002, to 44.5 for November, an increase of 0.9 in October and the
highest it's been since May. November's results mark a sharp reversal since
September, when the index plunged to a negative 13.5; but expectations are
still not as high as they were last year in November, when the index stood at
69.
Mark Twain: " Life does not consist mainly, or even largely, of facts and happenings. It consists mainly of the storm of thought that is forever flowing through one's head."
According to the current issue of the journal Health Affairs, about 21 percent of private health spending in California goes to insurance paperwork. That translates into about $26 billion a year in California, according to the study's main author, Dr. James G. Kahn, professor at the Institute of Health Policy Studies at UCSF.
Jessamyn West: "We want the facts to fit the preconceptions. When they don't it is easier to ignore the facts than to change the preconceptions."
Silver Lake Partners Friday said it agreed to buy Serena Software Inc. for about $1.2 billion. Under the deal, which is expected to close in the first quarter, Serena stockholders will receive $24 in cash for each of their shares.
India's industrial growth slowed to 7.2 percent in the July-September quarter from 10.4 percent in the previous quarter, according to government data released today.
Thursday, November 10, 2005
Present And Future..
11/10/05 Present And Future
Barry Ritholtz: "Notwithstanding our recent Bullishness, we remain uneasy about the market’s longer-term prospects. The lack of traction in the face of good earnings, increased dividends, and huge buybacks is certainly disconcerting. The Market is still only where it was back on August 2001. To paraphrase Jeff Saut, despite 14 straight quarters of double-digit earnings growth, the S&P 500 has gone virtually nowhere for 3½ years."
Crude is trading slightly below $59 a barrel. The EIA lowered its forecast for demand in 2005 by 60,000 barrels a day and by 140,000 barrels a day in 2006. However, the organization stated "there is the potential for further tightness to emerge."
George Washington: "I am for free commerce with all nations; political connection with none; and little or no diplomatic establishmen."
The U.S. trade gap for September most likely exceeded $60 billion. Conversely, China's October trade surplus registered a gain of $12 billion, up from $7.56 billion in September. For the first ten months of 2005, China's trade surplus amounted to $80.4 billion, up sharply from $11.1 billion a year earlier.
Steve Forbes: "The American administration i making a major mistake, trying to pressure the Chinese. I wish we'd back off." I concur; however, back off they won't. Bush is quite adept at blaming others for the mistakes he and his administration and the Congress make. Other than misspeaking, that is probably his greatest ability.
In the latest week, distillate inventories declined by 2.8 million barrels while crude inventories climbed by 4.7 million barrels and gasoline by 4.1 million gallons.
For the month of September, the nation's inventory-to-sales ratio dipped to 1.15, the lowest since 1.14 in May 2004.
Boeing will cut 250 jobs in Wichita and Frito Lay will also cut as many as 250 jobs.
Yesterday, the yield on 10-year treasury bonds climbed to 4.64%. That rate remains ridiculously low considering our twin tower deficits and the unwillingness of Bush and the Congress to strenuously cut spending.
Thomas Jefferson: "The merchant has no country."
The CBO projects that the interest rate on the 10-year treasury bond will rise to 5.4% by 2007.
Would you be surprised if that rise took place in 2006?
Auctionblockdatabase.com : "The private equity consortia that are bidding for Boise, Idaho-based supermarket Albertson's Inc. are trying to woo strategic buyers to their teams in an effort to bolster their bids."
If oil and gas shares have topped out and if housing stocks have topped out and if the financials have topped out, then what sectors will provide the leadership for the remainder of 2005 and for next year? If you are having trouble answering that question, then maybe you should take some money off the table.
Gary Lammert: "The 3 August 2005 averaged daily high of the Wilshire remains the
Maginot line for total available investment money to show its true
residual quantitative power in the twilight period of this 70 or so
year global economic cycle."
Banc of America raised its 2-year bankruptcy risk for General Motors to 40% from 30%.
Arthur Schopenhauer: "I am often surprised by the cleverness, and now and again by the stupidity of my dog; and I have similar experiences with mankind."
Mortgage rates continued to climb, with fixed rate mortgages reaching the highest level since Sept. 2003. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased from 6.37 percent to 6.42 percent, according to Bankrate.com.
The economic outlook looks weaker for the United States and Canada but brighter for the other Group of Seven leading industrialized nations, an early warning indicator issued by the OECD think tank showed on Thursday.
JFK: "When we got into office, the thing that surprised me the most was that things were as bad as we'd been saying they were."
Barry Ritholtz: "Notwithstanding our recent Bullishness, we remain uneasy about the market’s longer-term prospects. The lack of traction in the face of good earnings, increased dividends, and huge buybacks is certainly disconcerting. The Market is still only where it was back on August 2001. To paraphrase Jeff Saut, despite 14 straight quarters of double-digit earnings growth, the S&P 500 has gone virtually nowhere for 3½ years."
Crude is trading slightly below $59 a barrel. The EIA lowered its forecast for demand in 2005 by 60,000 barrels a day and by 140,000 barrels a day in 2006. However, the organization stated "there is the potential for further tightness to emerge."
George Washington: "I am for free commerce with all nations; political connection with none; and little or no diplomatic establishmen."
The U.S. trade gap for September most likely exceeded $60 billion. Conversely, China's October trade surplus registered a gain of $12 billion, up from $7.56 billion in September. For the first ten months of 2005, China's trade surplus amounted to $80.4 billion, up sharply from $11.1 billion a year earlier.
Steve Forbes: "The American administration i making a major mistake, trying to pressure the Chinese. I wish we'd back off." I concur; however, back off they won't. Bush is quite adept at blaming others for the mistakes he and his administration and the Congress make. Other than misspeaking, that is probably his greatest ability.
In the latest week, distillate inventories declined by 2.8 million barrels while crude inventories climbed by 4.7 million barrels and gasoline by 4.1 million gallons.
For the month of September, the nation's inventory-to-sales ratio dipped to 1.15, the lowest since 1.14 in May 2004.
Boeing will cut 250 jobs in Wichita and Frito Lay will also cut as many as 250 jobs.
Yesterday, the yield on 10-year treasury bonds climbed to 4.64%. That rate remains ridiculously low considering our twin tower deficits and the unwillingness of Bush and the Congress to strenuously cut spending.
Thomas Jefferson: "The merchant has no country."
The CBO projects that the interest rate on the 10-year treasury bond will rise to 5.4% by 2007.
Would you be surprised if that rise took place in 2006?
Auctionblockdatabase.com : "The private equity consortia that are bidding for Boise, Idaho-based supermarket Albertson's Inc. are trying to woo strategic buyers to their teams in an effort to bolster their bids."
If oil and gas shares have topped out and if housing stocks have topped out and if the financials have topped out, then what sectors will provide the leadership for the remainder of 2005 and for next year? If you are having trouble answering that question, then maybe you should take some money off the table.
Gary Lammert: "The 3 August 2005 averaged daily high of the Wilshire remains the
Maginot line for total available investment money to show its true
residual quantitative power in the twilight period of this 70 or so
year global economic cycle."
Banc of America raised its 2-year bankruptcy risk for General Motors to 40% from 30%.
Arthur Schopenhauer: "I am often surprised by the cleverness, and now and again by the stupidity of my dog; and I have similar experiences with mankind."
Mortgage rates continued to climb, with fixed rate mortgages reaching the highest level since Sept. 2003. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased from 6.37 percent to 6.42 percent, according to Bankrate.com.
The economic outlook looks weaker for the United States and Canada but brighter for the other Group of Seven leading industrialized nations, an early warning indicator issued by the OECD think tank showed on Thursday.
JFK: "When we got into office, the thing that surprised me the most was that things were as bad as we'd been saying they were."
Wednesday, November 09, 2005
Conclusions
11/9/05 Conclusions
The Conference Board reported today that the leading index for Japan increased 0.4 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in September. The leading index increased again in September for the fourth consecutive month, and the strength among the leading indicators has continued to be relatively widespread in recent months. With this month's gain, the growth rate of the leading index has picked up to about a 2.0 - 3.0 percent annual rate, up from the zero to slightly negative growth at the end of 2004, but this is still well below the peak growth rate reached in the first half of 2004. The coincident index also increased again in September after staying essentially flat from April to July. These increases keep it on a slightly rising trend. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2005, down from a 5.8 percent rate in the first quarter. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that the economy will continue to expand moderately in the near term.
At the moment, my trade of going long the yen and short the dollar reveals some bloody losses.
Other than the interest rate differential, I continue to believe Japan is headed on the right track economically while that is not the case for the U.S. As such, I will add to my position. This decision is not for the faint of heart and not appropriate for the vast majortiy of investors.
According to the Financial Times, Microsoft’s top executives admitted in internal memos that the company had failed to achieve leadership in key technologies and that its business was at risk if it did not respond to new internet offerings.
Bush stated the U.S. trade gap with China is "bothersome." I have concluded that Bush in the White House is bothersome. That and a buck and a half will get each of us on the bus.
Brad Setser: "China's exports to Europe have grown faster than its exports to the US since 2002. "
With retailers starting promotions sooner than ever, many stores are hiring earlier.
Chicagoans are expected to spend an average of $686 on gifts this year, the highest level in four years, and 44 percent higher than the average $476 they spent last year, according to a survey by Deloitte & Touche consultants.
According to UBS AG's Nikos Theodospoulos, Cisco may report today that revenue rose to $6.58 billion and per-share profit climbed to 24 cents.
Sales of full-size pick-ups fell by 31.8 per cent in October, compared with a year earlier, following a 26.4 per cent slide in September.
U.K. consumer confidence fell to the lowest in at least 18 months in October.
Paul Kasriel: "Fourth-quarter average real consumer spending will be lucky to be flat!... No growth in real consumer spending implies very slow growth in real consumer spending implies very slow growth in real GDP in the foutth quarter...Households' required payments of principal and interest are at a 25-year high relative to their after-tax income."
The volume of mortgage applications as tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association increased by 2.3% in the week ended Nov. 4 compared to the prior week. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the number of applications filed for mortgages to purchase homes rose by 6.4%; however, refinancing applications slipped 3.4% on a week-to-week basis. Moreover, the rate of applications to buy homes stands 3.6% lower compared to a year ago, noted Jay Brinkmann, MBA's voice president of research and economics, and the four-week moving average for overall mortgage applications was off 1.2%.
The Flag Manufacturers Association of America (FMAA) reported US flag penetration and usage in the US is large and stable with 62% of the US population having a US Flag in their household.
Liberty Media Corporation today announced the appointment of Gregory B. Maffei as Director and CEO-Elect. After a brief transition, Mr. Maffei will assume the role of Chief Executive Officer sometime during the second quarter of 2006, replacing Dr. John C. Malone, who will remain Chairman. At that time, Mr. Maffei will also assume the title of President replacing Robert Bennett who, as previously announced, is retiring but will remain a director.
Fifty-five (55) percent of a thousand people recently surveyed by KeyCorp say they consider themselves to be disciplined savers. However, 80 percent report saving less than 5 percent of their income, 42 percent report saving less than 2 percent of their income, and 24 percent say they don't save anything at all. "It's clearly a case of people believing they're doing better job of saving than they actually are," said Andy Will, director of Consumer Product Management."The best intentions are not resulting in the best behavior." According to the survey, insufficient income, debt and spending habits are the main culprits that prevent people from saving as much as they would like. And rising gas prices have caused more than two-thirds of people (68 percent) to become more serious about saving money.
The Conference Board reported today that the leading index for Japan increased 0.4 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in September. The leading index increased again in September for the fourth consecutive month, and the strength among the leading indicators has continued to be relatively widespread in recent months. With this month's gain, the growth rate of the leading index has picked up to about a 2.0 - 3.0 percent annual rate, up from the zero to slightly negative growth at the end of 2004, but this is still well below the peak growth rate reached in the first half of 2004. The coincident index also increased again in September after staying essentially flat from April to July. These increases keep it on a slightly rising trend. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2005, down from a 5.8 percent rate in the first quarter. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that the economy will continue to expand moderately in the near term.
At the moment, my trade of going long the yen and short the dollar reveals some bloody losses.
Other than the interest rate differential, I continue to believe Japan is headed on the right track economically while that is not the case for the U.S. As such, I will add to my position. This decision is not for the faint of heart and not appropriate for the vast majortiy of investors.
According to the Financial Times, Microsoft’s top executives admitted in internal memos that the company had failed to achieve leadership in key technologies and that its business was at risk if it did not respond to new internet offerings.
Bush stated the U.S. trade gap with China is "bothersome." I have concluded that Bush in the White House is bothersome. That and a buck and a half will get each of us on the bus.
Brad Setser: "China's exports to Europe have grown faster than its exports to the US since 2002. "
With retailers starting promotions sooner than ever, many stores are hiring earlier.
Chicagoans are expected to spend an average of $686 on gifts this year, the highest level in four years, and 44 percent higher than the average $476 they spent last year, according to a survey by Deloitte & Touche consultants.
According to UBS AG's Nikos Theodospoulos, Cisco may report today that revenue rose to $6.58 billion and per-share profit climbed to 24 cents.
Sales of full-size pick-ups fell by 31.8 per cent in October, compared with a year earlier, following a 26.4 per cent slide in September.
U.K. consumer confidence fell to the lowest in at least 18 months in October.
Paul Kasriel: "Fourth-quarter average real consumer spending will be lucky to be flat!... No growth in real consumer spending implies very slow growth in real consumer spending implies very slow growth in real GDP in the foutth quarter...Households' required payments of principal and interest are at a 25-year high relative to their after-tax income."
The volume of mortgage applications as tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association increased by 2.3% in the week ended Nov. 4 compared to the prior week. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the number of applications filed for mortgages to purchase homes rose by 6.4%; however, refinancing applications slipped 3.4% on a week-to-week basis. Moreover, the rate of applications to buy homes stands 3.6% lower compared to a year ago, noted Jay Brinkmann, MBA's voice president of research and economics, and the four-week moving average for overall mortgage applications was off 1.2%.
The Flag Manufacturers Association of America (FMAA) reported US flag penetration and usage in the US is large and stable with 62% of the US population having a US Flag in their household.
Liberty Media Corporation today announced the appointment of Gregory B. Maffei as Director and CEO-Elect. After a brief transition, Mr. Maffei will assume the role of Chief Executive Officer sometime during the second quarter of 2006, replacing Dr. John C. Malone, who will remain Chairman. At that time, Mr. Maffei will also assume the title of President replacing Robert Bennett who, as previously announced, is retiring but will remain a director.
Fifty-five (55) percent of a thousand people recently surveyed by KeyCorp say they consider themselves to be disciplined savers. However, 80 percent report saving less than 5 percent of their income, 42 percent report saving less than 2 percent of their income, and 24 percent say they don't save anything at all. "It's clearly a case of people believing they're doing better job of saving than they actually are," said Andy Will, director of Consumer Product Management."The best intentions are not resulting in the best behavior." According to the survey, insufficient income, debt and spending habits are the main culprits that prevent people from saving as much as they would like. And rising gas prices have caused more than two-thirds of people (68 percent) to become more serious about saving money.
Tuesday, November 08, 2005
Happenings
11/8/05 Happenings
Borrowing by US consumers fell for the first time in 10 months in September as auto discounts expired and rising interest rates made it costlier to buy on credit. U.S. consumer credit unexpectedly dipped by $59.4 million in September. Economists had been forecasting an increase of $6 billion.
Toll Bros. "It appears we may be entering a period of more moderate home price appreciation." The company also mentioned buyers are taking longer to make purchasing decisions.
Serono, the Swiss biotech company, hired Goldman Sachs to explore strategic alternatives. It might be a good fit with a couple of big pharmaceutical companies. Even though the company is projecting at least 20% EPS growth in 2005, one might temper enthusiasm due to the lack of a strong drug pipeline.
Demand for crude was curtailed by warmer weather in many parts of the country, and crude futures fell to below $60 a barrel to their lowest level in 3 months.
The euro declined to a 2-year low versus the dollar.
"Strong operational performance was demonstrated in October, particularly in our Mortgage Banking segment," stated Countrywide's President and COO Stanford L. Kurland, "With year-to-date mortgage loan production of $405 billion, Countrywide is approaching its previous annual record of $435 billion set in 2003."
NBC, CBS will offer shows on demand for 99 cents.
Palatin's total revenues in the quarter ended September 30, 2005 were $5.1 million, compared to $4.5 million for the same period in 2004. Palatin reported a net loss of $6.0 million, or ($0.11) per basic and diluted share, for the quarter ended September 30, 2005, compared to a net loss of $3.0 million, or ($0.06) per basic and diluted share, for the same period in 2004. At September 30, 2005, the Company had cash and investments totaling $25.5 million. The increase in the net loss for the quarter ended September 30, 2005 versus the quarter ended September 30, 2004 was primarily attributable to increased research and development costs related to PT-141 amountng to $2.8 million. For the quarter ended September 30, 2005, royalty revenue on Mallinckrodt's commercial sales of NeutroSpec amounted to $916,000, compared to $578,000 in the quarter ended June 30, 2005 and $327,000 in the quarter ended September 30, 2004. However, in the current period, the Company recorded no product sales revenue(license sales) from shipments of NeutroSpec to Mallinckrodt, compared to $416,000 for the quarter ended September 30, 2004.
From my first mention of Palatin, I opined that one should take a 3 to 5 year investment view. My opinion has not changed. It will take that time horizon to see the fruits of PT-141 and the company's efforts in weight control. I believe Palatin is on the right track with its melanocortin-based research developments.
Borrowing by US consumers fell for the first time in 10 months in September as auto discounts expired and rising interest rates made it costlier to buy on credit. U.S. consumer credit unexpectedly dipped by $59.4 million in September. Economists had been forecasting an increase of $6 billion.
Toll Bros. "It appears we may be entering a period of more moderate home price appreciation." The company also mentioned buyers are taking longer to make purchasing decisions.
Serono, the Swiss biotech company, hired Goldman Sachs to explore strategic alternatives. It might be a good fit with a couple of big pharmaceutical companies. Even though the company is projecting at least 20% EPS growth in 2005, one might temper enthusiasm due to the lack of a strong drug pipeline.
Demand for crude was curtailed by warmer weather in many parts of the country, and crude futures fell to below $60 a barrel to their lowest level in 3 months.
The euro declined to a 2-year low versus the dollar.
"Strong operational performance was demonstrated in October, particularly in our Mortgage Banking segment," stated Countrywide's President and COO Stanford L. Kurland, "With year-to-date mortgage loan production of $405 billion, Countrywide is approaching its previous annual record of $435 billion set in 2003."
NBC, CBS will offer shows on demand for 99 cents.
Palatin's total revenues in the quarter ended September 30, 2005 were $5.1 million, compared to $4.5 million for the same period in 2004. Palatin reported a net loss of $6.0 million, or ($0.11) per basic and diluted share, for the quarter ended September 30, 2005, compared to a net loss of $3.0 million, or ($0.06) per basic and diluted share, for the same period in 2004. At September 30, 2005, the Company had cash and investments totaling $25.5 million. The increase in the net loss for the quarter ended September 30, 2005 versus the quarter ended September 30, 2004 was primarily attributable to increased research and development costs related to PT-141 amountng to $2.8 million. For the quarter ended September 30, 2005, royalty revenue on Mallinckrodt's commercial sales of NeutroSpec amounted to $916,000, compared to $578,000 in the quarter ended June 30, 2005 and $327,000 in the quarter ended September 30, 2004. However, in the current period, the Company recorded no product sales revenue(license sales) from shipments of NeutroSpec to Mallinckrodt, compared to $416,000 for the quarter ended September 30, 2004.
From my first mention of Palatin, I opined that one should take a 3 to 5 year investment view. My opinion has not changed. It will take that time horizon to see the fruits of PT-141 and the company's efforts in weight control. I believe Palatin is on the right track with its melanocortin-based research developments.
Monday, November 07, 2005
Attitudes And Concerns
7/7/05 Attitudes And Concerns
Although current economic indicators have remained stable, concerns about the future performance of the national economy have led to a sharp drop in confidence among the affluent, according to the latest quarterly McDonald Financial Group Affluent Consumer Confidence Index results, released today. Although those surveyed expressed greater confidence in the state of current local economic conditions, the Index found that affluent Americans' personal intentions to spend and invest over the next three to six months have slipped, after maintaining strong levels over recent quarters. The overall score for the most recent McDonald Financial Group Affluent Consumer Confidence Index was 42 out of 100, which is down from 52 last quarter and 48 from the year-ago period. This also represents the lowest Index level since April 2003. Additionally, a majority of respondents, or 57 percent, now thinks the economy is headed in the wrong direction, which represents the highest percentage recorded for this question since the Index was initiated in January 2003. In contrast, last quarter nearly the same percentage (54 percent) thought the economy was on the right track. According to the survey, 41 percent believe the economy will be worse in three months, while only 15 percent think it will be better -- a drop of 17 points from last quarter and an all-time low score for that question. Additionally, 64 percent expressed that they are "very concerned" about the impact of high oil prices on the U.S. economy. David Legeay, senior vice president, McDonald Financial Group, said,"Although this quarter's survey revealed a sharp dip in confidence among affluent Americans, this is roughly the same trend we saw at this time last year, when respondents' comments reflected the impact of uncertainties surrounding the Presidential elections. We believe this quarter's responsesmay have been influenced by a confluence of events including rising oil prices, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and the continuing situation in Iraq, which -- when combined -- have left many affluent individuals feeling concerned about the future of the national economy." Legeay added, "We also believe that regularly surveying the nation's affluent population is important, as many of the affluent are business owners or serve in executive positions where they are responsible for making capital expenditures and hiring decisions. As a result, their opinions can be an important barometer of where the economy is headed." The McDonald Financial Group Affluent Consumer Confidence Index -- a quarterly measure of market sentiment -- is based on a national survey of 400 randomly selected individuals with investable assets of $500,000 or more,and/or personal annual income of $150,000 or more. The poll was conducted byindependent research firm Penn, Schoen & Berland between Oct. 6 and Oct. 19, 2005.
Gary Tanashian: "Maybe we have an indefinite amount of time left to keep our debt model running. Certainly some perma-bears must now be coming to believe it will never end. Or maybe the US is becoming increasingly isolated on the global stage and the ascendant powers of Japan (mature, sophisticated economy), China (manufacturing giant) and India (technology center) will increasingly set the terms of global trade."
David Lerach, chief economic forecaster for the National Association of Realtors, predicted that, with average 30-year mortgage rates expected to reach 6.7% by the end of 2006, existing-home sales will decline 3.5% next year, to 6.9 million, from this year's projected 7.1 million; new-home sales will fall 4.5%; home price growth should slow significantly, with 2005's median 12.4% appreciation slowing to 5.3% in 2006. Lereah's predictions were for the nation as a whole. In sum, Lerach remarked "it's the peak of the boom." The housing
stocks already made that statement some months back. Lerach is looking for a soft landing. Doesn't everyone?
Brian Setser: "Add it up - stagnant real wages for many, more income volatility, less retirement security, less access to group insurance through work. That is an unpleasant combination for many."
As of Sunday, at least 2,045 members of the U.S. military have died since the beginning of the Iraq war in March 2003, according to an Associated Press count.
Borsi Giosue: "The great thought, the great concern, the great anxiety of men is to restrict, as much as possible, the limits of their own responsibility."
Talking about Albertsons: "How many times do assets like these come on the market?" asked analyst Andrew Wolf of BB&T Capital Markets. "Once every 50 years?"
Independence Air filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
El Paso Corp. reported a loss of $390 million on derivatives that were intended
to manage the price risk of oil and gas production. Derivatives, in the hands of amateurs, is playing with fire. How many more companies will report losses from derivatives in the coming months?
It has been reported that, in addition to Spitzer's lawsuit, Guidant is also facing 136 class-action lawsuits.
John Hussman: "My impression is that Wall Street's expectations for year-end strength in the stock market have, to date, been self-fulfilling prophesies that have actually produced short-term strength in the market. At the same time, it's likely that those expectations are now so widely accepted that the hope for future market strength is probably already reflected in current prices. In short, with so many investors and analysts foreseeing a year-end advance, there's at least an even chance that we've already seen it...it strikes me that investors are substantially overlooking the growing risk of recession that is evident in more reliable and less transitory information."
Thomas Jefferson: “I am not among those who fear the people. They, and not the rich, are our dependence for continued freedom.” “Aristocrats fear the people, and wish to transfer all power to the higher classes of society.” “The people...are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty.”
Although current economic indicators have remained stable, concerns about the future performance of the national economy have led to a sharp drop in confidence among the affluent, according to the latest quarterly McDonald Financial Group Affluent Consumer Confidence Index results, released today. Although those surveyed expressed greater confidence in the state of current local economic conditions, the Index found that affluent Americans' personal intentions to spend and invest over the next three to six months have slipped, after maintaining strong levels over recent quarters. The overall score for the most recent McDonald Financial Group Affluent Consumer Confidence Index was 42 out of 100, which is down from 52 last quarter and 48 from the year-ago period. This also represents the lowest Index level since April 2003. Additionally, a majority of respondents, or 57 percent, now thinks the economy is headed in the wrong direction, which represents the highest percentage recorded for this question since the Index was initiated in January 2003. In contrast, last quarter nearly the same percentage (54 percent) thought the economy was on the right track. According to the survey, 41 percent believe the economy will be worse in three months, while only 15 percent think it will be better -- a drop of 17 points from last quarter and an all-time low score for that question. Additionally, 64 percent expressed that they are "very concerned" about the impact of high oil prices on the U.S. economy. David Legeay, senior vice president, McDonald Financial Group, said,"Although this quarter's survey revealed a sharp dip in confidence among affluent Americans, this is roughly the same trend we saw at this time last year, when respondents' comments reflected the impact of uncertainties surrounding the Presidential elections. We believe this quarter's responsesmay have been influenced by a confluence of events including rising oil prices, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and the continuing situation in Iraq, which -- when combined -- have left many affluent individuals feeling concerned about the future of the national economy." Legeay added, "We also believe that regularly surveying the nation's affluent population is important, as many of the affluent are business owners or serve in executive positions where they are responsible for making capital expenditures and hiring decisions. As a result, their opinions can be an important barometer of where the economy is headed." The McDonald Financial Group Affluent Consumer Confidence Index -- a quarterly measure of market sentiment -- is based on a national survey of 400 randomly selected individuals with investable assets of $500,000 or more,and/or personal annual income of $150,000 or more. The poll was conducted byindependent research firm Penn, Schoen & Berland between Oct. 6 and Oct. 19, 2005.
Gary Tanashian: "Maybe we have an indefinite amount of time left to keep our debt model running. Certainly some perma-bears must now be coming to believe it will never end. Or maybe the US is becoming increasingly isolated on the global stage and the ascendant powers of Japan (mature, sophisticated economy), China (manufacturing giant) and India (technology center) will increasingly set the terms of global trade."
David Lerach, chief economic forecaster for the National Association of Realtors, predicted that, with average 30-year mortgage rates expected to reach 6.7% by the end of 2006, existing-home sales will decline 3.5% next year, to 6.9 million, from this year's projected 7.1 million; new-home sales will fall 4.5%; home price growth should slow significantly, with 2005's median 12.4% appreciation slowing to 5.3% in 2006. Lereah's predictions were for the nation as a whole. In sum, Lerach remarked "it's the peak of the boom." The housing
stocks already made that statement some months back. Lerach is looking for a soft landing. Doesn't everyone?
Brian Setser: "Add it up - stagnant real wages for many, more income volatility, less retirement security, less access to group insurance through work. That is an unpleasant combination for many."
As of Sunday, at least 2,045 members of the U.S. military have died since the beginning of the Iraq war in March 2003, according to an Associated Press count.
Borsi Giosue: "The great thought, the great concern, the great anxiety of men is to restrict, as much as possible, the limits of their own responsibility."
Talking about Albertsons: "How many times do assets like these come on the market?" asked analyst Andrew Wolf of BB&T Capital Markets. "Once every 50 years?"
Independence Air filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
El Paso Corp. reported a loss of $390 million on derivatives that were intended
to manage the price risk of oil and gas production. Derivatives, in the hands of amateurs, is playing with fire. How many more companies will report losses from derivatives in the coming months?
It has been reported that, in addition to Spitzer's lawsuit, Guidant is also facing 136 class-action lawsuits.
John Hussman: "My impression is that Wall Street's expectations for year-end strength in the stock market have, to date, been self-fulfilling prophesies that have actually produced short-term strength in the market. At the same time, it's likely that those expectations are now so widely accepted that the hope for future market strength is probably already reflected in current prices. In short, with so many investors and analysts foreseeing a year-end advance, there's at least an even chance that we've already seen it...it strikes me that investors are substantially overlooking the growing risk of recession that is evident in more reliable and less transitory information."
Thomas Jefferson: “I am not among those who fear the people. They, and not the rich, are our dependence for continued freedom.” “Aristocrats fear the people, and wish to transfer all power to the higher classes of society.” “The people...are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty.”
Sunday, November 06, 2005
Findings
11/6/05 Findings
Louis Pasteur: "Chance favors only the prepared mind."
In a recent study, a further correlation between obesity and brain pathways and the role of melanocortin was
established. The study was led by a scientific team at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC) and provides an understanding of the neuronal pathways and complex microcircuitry behind weight control and the role of the melanocortin-4 receptor (MC4R) to regulate either food consumption or energy expenditure.
Bradford B. Lowell, MD, PhD at BIDMC says, "The brain controls both food intake and calories expended with the purpose of keeping body weight stable. When something goes wrong with this process, obesity results. The findings of this new research provide us with more precise information about the neuronal pathways regulating this balance."
The study’s lead author Nina Balthasar, PhD says, "Scientists have known that by activating MC4Rs, body weight can be reduced."
Just as a reminder, I have frequently written about Palatin Technologies, melanocortin, and weight control.
This is a busy week for Palatin. They will be at the CIBC World Markets 16th Annual Healthcare Conference.Carl Spana, Ph.D., President and Chief Executive Officer of Palatin Technologies, will present at 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Monday, November 7, 2005 at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel in New York City. Then on Tuesday the company will issue its quarterly report. The following day the company will participate in the
Rodman & Renshaw Techvest 7th Annual Healthcare Conference. Carl Spana will present at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time at the Palace Hotel in New York City.
China has mobilised its armed forces and allocated emergency funds and vaccines to fight bird flu as a mass cull of poultry and birds continued Sunday following a new outbreak in the country's northeast.
Mike Burk: "If Monday is up it will be the first time the OTC has been up for more than 3 consecutive days since early July. By this indicator that will mean the trend has changed from down to up."
Historically, the equity market's strongest period is from November-May. Everyone knows this fact. Consequently, traders look for a year-end rally beginning in November. In fact, most equity indices have risen over the last three trading days. I am not a trader. I try to place myself in an optimum position -- not just for three days or three weeks or three months-- but looking around the bend and over the horizon. The time to buy is when the skies are filled with storms and the time to sell is when the skies are sunny and bright. In other words, you buy straw hats in the winter months. You buy used cars in the winter months. You purchase stocks during the peak hurricane season. Keep your eyes on the important trends: the aging of the U.S., China, and Japan; the rising standard of living in China and India; the end of deflation in Japan; inflation outpacing wages in the U.S.; the interplay of rising interest rates and inflation on currencies and commodities; the growing world-wide disparity between the haves and the havenots; the growing U.S. dependency on foreign nations to export their savings to our shores in an effort to fund our twin tower deficits; and bulging global liquidity creating a stampeding herd searching for fat returns and depending on derivatives to limit forward-looking risks. The idea is not to get caught up in the day-to-day antics of program trading. Pick your spots and ignore the media headlines. Whe it comes to the equity, bond, commodity, and currency markets, no one is Houdini. Everyone gets bloodied. The idea is to heal and learn from the blood. If you faint from the sight of blood, don't invest. If you can't handle a scar or two, don't invest. If you can't do your own homework, don't invest. If you have no patience, don't invest. In other words, most people make lousy investors. Next year will test the abilities of all investors. Rather than simply focus on a possible year-end rally, I would position oneself for a trying 2006. If you think 2005 has been difficult, then maybe you should sit out 2006. High wire acts are never my thing.
John Maudlin: "In the last three years, almost 600 companies have reneged on pension-fund obligations, with 21 plans each totaling $100 million or more, topped by United's pension fund failure at $9.8 billion, the biggest since the government began guaranteeing pensions in 1974. In June, Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines told Congress their plans would default unless legislators extended the funding deadline. The automakers, short by $55 billion to $60 billion, may not be far behind."
Brian Tracy: "The more you seek security, the less of it you have. But the more you seek opportunity, the more likely it is that you will achieve the security that you desire."
As we move into the Phase II of prewar intelligence, one might consider the document DITSUM No. 044-02.
The misuse of prewar intelligence to try to justify the war in Iraq will come into clearer focus.
Andre Gide: "One does not discover new lands without consenting to lose sight of the shore for a very long time."
"If there's one thing that could bankrupt the country, it's health care," Comptroller General Walker said.
The federal Vioxx trial is scheduled to begin Nov. 29 in Houston, just 40 miles north of the state court where Texas jurors last August hit Merck with a $253 million verdict in the first Vioxx trial in the nation. Texas caps on punitive damages will cut that amount to no more than $26.1 million.
"We have told the (International Atomic Energy) Agency that we are going to inject new initial materials (uranium ore) into the production chain,"Javad Vaidi, an official from Iran's Supreme National Security Council, told state television.
Peter Drucker: "The best way to predict the future is to create it."
Louis Pasteur: "Chance favors only the prepared mind."
In a recent study, a further correlation between obesity and brain pathways and the role of melanocortin was
established. The study was led by a scientific team at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC) and provides an understanding of the neuronal pathways and complex microcircuitry behind weight control and the role of the melanocortin-4 receptor (MC4R) to regulate either food consumption or energy expenditure.
Bradford B. Lowell, MD, PhD at BIDMC says, "The brain controls both food intake and calories expended with the purpose of keeping body weight stable. When something goes wrong with this process, obesity results. The findings of this new research provide us with more precise information about the neuronal pathways regulating this balance."
The study’s lead author Nina Balthasar, PhD says, "Scientists have known that by activating MC4Rs, body weight can be reduced."
Just as a reminder, I have frequently written about Palatin Technologies, melanocortin, and weight control.
This is a busy week for Palatin. They will be at the CIBC World Markets 16th Annual Healthcare Conference.Carl Spana, Ph.D., President and Chief Executive Officer of Palatin Technologies, will present at 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Monday, November 7, 2005 at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel in New York City. Then on Tuesday the company will issue its quarterly report. The following day the company will participate in the
Rodman & Renshaw Techvest 7th Annual Healthcare Conference. Carl Spana will present at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time at the Palace Hotel in New York City.
China has mobilised its armed forces and allocated emergency funds and vaccines to fight bird flu as a mass cull of poultry and birds continued Sunday following a new outbreak in the country's northeast.
Mike Burk: "If Monday is up it will be the first time the OTC has been up for more than 3 consecutive days since early July. By this indicator that will mean the trend has changed from down to up."
Historically, the equity market's strongest period is from November-May. Everyone knows this fact. Consequently, traders look for a year-end rally beginning in November. In fact, most equity indices have risen over the last three trading days. I am not a trader. I try to place myself in an optimum position -- not just for three days or three weeks or three months-- but looking around the bend and over the horizon. The time to buy is when the skies are filled with storms and the time to sell is when the skies are sunny and bright. In other words, you buy straw hats in the winter months. You buy used cars in the winter months. You purchase stocks during the peak hurricane season. Keep your eyes on the important trends: the aging of the U.S., China, and Japan; the rising standard of living in China and India; the end of deflation in Japan; inflation outpacing wages in the U.S.; the interplay of rising interest rates and inflation on currencies and commodities; the growing world-wide disparity between the haves and the havenots; the growing U.S. dependency on foreign nations to export their savings to our shores in an effort to fund our twin tower deficits; and bulging global liquidity creating a stampeding herd searching for fat returns and depending on derivatives to limit forward-looking risks. The idea is not to get caught up in the day-to-day antics of program trading. Pick your spots and ignore the media headlines. Whe it comes to the equity, bond, commodity, and currency markets, no one is Houdini. Everyone gets bloodied. The idea is to heal and learn from the blood. If you faint from the sight of blood, don't invest. If you can't handle a scar or two, don't invest. If you can't do your own homework, don't invest. If you have no patience, don't invest. In other words, most people make lousy investors. Next year will test the abilities of all investors. Rather than simply focus on a possible year-end rally, I would position oneself for a trying 2006. If you think 2005 has been difficult, then maybe you should sit out 2006. High wire acts are never my thing.
John Maudlin: "In the last three years, almost 600 companies have reneged on pension-fund obligations, with 21 plans each totaling $100 million or more, topped by United's pension fund failure at $9.8 billion, the biggest since the government began guaranteeing pensions in 1974. In June, Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines told Congress their plans would default unless legislators extended the funding deadline. The automakers, short by $55 billion to $60 billion, may not be far behind."
Brian Tracy: "The more you seek security, the less of it you have. But the more you seek opportunity, the more likely it is that you will achieve the security that you desire."
As we move into the Phase II of prewar intelligence, one might consider the document DITSUM No. 044-02.
The misuse of prewar intelligence to try to justify the war in Iraq will come into clearer focus.
Andre Gide: "One does not discover new lands without consenting to lose sight of the shore for a very long time."
"If there's one thing that could bankrupt the country, it's health care," Comptroller General Walker said.
The federal Vioxx trial is scheduled to begin Nov. 29 in Houston, just 40 miles north of the state court where Texas jurors last August hit Merck with a $253 million verdict in the first Vioxx trial in the nation. Texas caps on punitive damages will cut that amount to no more than $26.1 million.
"We have told the (International Atomic Energy) Agency that we are going to inject new initial materials (uranium ore) into the production chain,"Javad Vaidi, an official from Iran's Supreme National Security Council, told state television.
Peter Drucker: "The best way to predict the future is to create it."
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