1/21/06 Showdowns
Iran stated Friday it was moving its foreign assets to shield them from possible U.N. sanctions and flexed its oil muscles with a proposal to cut OPEC output."Yes, Iran has started withdrawing money from European banks and transferring it to other banks abroad," said a senior Iranian official, who asked not to be named. According to the International Monetary Fund, Iran’s foreign exchange reserves are $30.6bn in hard currency. Tehran has another $9bn in foreign assets (but not necessarily liquid) abroad, it says.
Total European Union trade with Iran rose to more than 20 billion euros ($24.2 billion) in 2004, according to the latest figures from EU statistics agency Eurostat, up from 13.8 billion euros in 2002.
Robin Williams: “We had gay burglars the other night. They broke in and rearranged the furniture.”
Germany was the top exporter to Iran in 2004, selling 3.57 billion euros ($4.35 billion) worth of goods and services to the country. France was second, at 2.33 billion euros ($2.78 billion).
Rodney Dangerfield: “I drink too much. The last time I gave a urine sample it had an olive in it.”
REMINDER: On March 20 Iran will price its energy in euros, not dollars. In addition, it will not use West Texas Intermediate or Brent Crude (from the North Sea) as its standard oil for pricing. It will use a Persian Gulf-produced oil instead.
"We support Iran's right to peaceful nuclear technology," Syrian President Bashar Assad told a news conference... "It is the right every state to own nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Countries that object to that have not provided a convincing or logical reason," Assad said.
Stephen Roach: “By our reckoning, in November 2005, private compensation remained nearly $390 billion below the composite trajectory of the past four US business cycles. With America’s internal income-generating capacity continuing to lag, US consumers once again tapped the home equity till to draw support from the Asset Economy. According to Federal Reserve estimates, equity extraction by US households topped $600 billion in 2005 -- more than enough to compensate for the shortfall of earned labor income.”
What one sees is determined by one’s brain. Is there significance in the saying “seeing is believing?” For me, the significance is acknowledging the difference between thinking and knowing. What interests me is knowing.
Marion Barry: “Outside of the killings, Washington has one of the lowest crime rates in the country.”
Former Congressman Leon Panetta attacked the Bush Administration Friday for seeking information on Internet searches made through Google and other search engines and called on the technology industry to come up with its own privacy standards to stymie future government efforts to invade the privacy of Internet users.
"We will have to deal with this on a case-by-case basis, probably all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court. The time is coming when the industry will have to set standards for privacy that will ensure that people will be protected."
Russia's natural gas monopoly Gazprom has agreed to pay 25 percent more for natural gas from Uzbekistan, an official said Saturday.
Yesterday, crude jumped to $68.35 a barrel, the highest close since Sept. 2. Heating oil rose 3.9% to $1.87 a gallon, and climbed 8.9% for the week. Natural gas rebounded 4.2% to $9.28 per million BTUs and ended the week up 5.6%.
By now, everyone knows the Dow got clobbered yesterday. It is down 0.5% year-to-date; however, the Nasdaq remains 1.9% higher and the S&P 500 is up 1.1% year-to-date.
Sugar had its highest close since 1981. It ended the week at 17 cents per pound.
In the last three trading days, the shares of Google have plummeted 14% or $20 billion in market value. The Justice Department is requesting one week’s worth of Web searches and one million addresses in Google’s database. Why? It is all in the effort to fight Internet pornography. Google refused to comply with the subpoena and stated the government’s demand “overreaches.” I applaud Google’s management for taking this stand against our country’s neo-Fascist administration. It is time our citizens rose together and fought for our freedoms and our liberties. Over the last 230 years, tens of thousands of Americans have lost their lives and their limbs to fight for our freedom. We have come to a crossroads. It is time for a showdown. Rise up and show this administration that bullies cannot defeat freedom. Have some guts. Wipe out complacency once and for all. This administration is the enemy of Main Street.
Herb Caen: “The trouble with born-again Christians is that they are an even bigger pain the second time around.”
Addison Wiggin, co-author of Empire of Debt and editorial director of the Daily Reckoning: "The lesson is that the globalization of the financial markets has placed an ever more precarious amount of U.S. debt in the hands of foreign central banks and investors.
That means the fate of the American economy is moving out of America's hands. It increasingly rests in the hands of foreign investors and central bankers who may or may not have our interests in mind when they make financial decisions."
Karl Rove: "Let me be as clear as I can: President Bush believes if al-Qaida is calling somebody in America, it is in our national security interest to know who they're calling and why," the White House deputy chief of staff told the Republican National Committee winter meeting. "Some important Democrats clearly disagree." Let me be as clear as I can. With billions of dollars spent on intelligence, how is it possible that for 52+ months we have not been able to capture Osama bin Laden? Maybe we should spend less time eavesdropping and torturing and place a real effort on bin Laden, who is a member of the Saudi royal family. Could it be that Saudi friends of this administration wield unusual influence?
By the end of the first quarter of 2006, Ford will have shed nearly 7,000, or about 20 percent, of its white-collar jobs. From 1999 to 2004, Ford eliminated 39,686 employees worldwide. On Monday, the company will release its fourth quarter and full-year report as well as “The Way Forward” plan for 2006 and beyond. In a day or so, I will have more to say about Ford.
From now on, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill) will pay the full costs of a flight taken on someone else's private plane, rather than pay the much cheaper price of a first-class ticket.
Doug Noland: “There will be those that continue to trumpet total S&P earnings growth, but the bottom line is that individual company earnings predictability is becoming much more uncertain. When it comes to profits, I think we have likely reached an important inflection point. The nature of this aged inflationary boom now ensures atypical price divergences and generally disparate inflationary pressures throughout the economy…
There is as well unusual uncertainty associated with the reality that speculative liquidity has come to be the driving force behind myriad market Bubbles and a key source fueling myriad Bubble economies. The backdrop is one of classic boom and bust dynamics, but on an unprecedented global scale. Sustaining the U.S. Credit (and aggregate profits) Bubble comes at a high cost of great uncertainty with regard to the soundness of global markets generally - debt, equity, energy, commodities, and currencies. Don't be surprised if currency markets turn frenzied…The Global Credit Bubble has left no room for error - and certainly no room for a geopolitical crisis. It is boom or bust, volatility, and uncertainty. It's going to be quite a year.”
In the past, whenever there has been a selling stampede in the equity markets, there has been a corresponding flight to quality—a rush to buy U.S. Treasury bonds. This week this did not occur. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond was unchanged on the week at 4.35%. I find this highly significant. In other words, this time it was different. This is a warning sign for the U.S. Treasury market as well as dollar-denominated assets. You would be well advised to sit up and take notice.
John Palfrey, a clinical law professor and executive director of the Berkman Center for Internet and Society at Harvard Law School: “I think Google’s principled decision here to stand and fight—saying ‘enough’ to a request for data that looks like an overreach and where there’s no immediate crisis to be solved by turning over this information—is laudable.”
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told senior leaders of a radical Palestinian group in Damascus on Friday that the Middle East conflict has become “the locus of the final war” between Muslims and the West, Iran’s official news agency, IRNA, reported.
Ahmadinejad told the leaders of Hamas “Today, victory in Palestine has become a matter of life and death for the Islamic world and for Global Arrogance (the West).”
Saturday, January 21, 2006
Friday, January 20, 2006
Construction And Housing
1/20/06 Construction And Housing
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported that billings at U.S. architecture firms were positive every month in 2005 for the first time since 2000, pointing towards 2006 being the best year for nonresidential construction in six years. With construction
accounting for nine percent of GDP, increased nonresidential activity will
ease the effects of a projected slowdown in the residential market. The
Architecture Billings Index (ABI), a leading economic indicator of nonresidential construction activity, had a rating of 50.4 in December 2005 (any score above 50 indicates a positive score), compared to 58.4 for November 2005 and 47.8 for December 2004. "Considering the sluggish consumer spending coupled with the softening residential sector, nonresidential construction should be viewed as a key driver for the overall economy in 2006," said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. "The nonresidential upturn should continue into 2007 and can be attributed to pent up demand for new projects that weren't able to be undertaken in recent years."
U.S. December housing starts fell 8.9% to a 9-month low. Meanwhile, building permits declined 4.4%.
The Philly Fed diffusion index fell to 3.3 in January from 10.9 in December. This is the lowest reading since last June.
For all of 2005, U.S. crude oil production fell 6.6%, while imports of refined products rose 13.9% to a record 3.48 million barrels a day.
Senator Patrick Leahy: "At a time when the president is seizing unprecedented power, the Supreme Court needs to act as a check and to provide balance. I have no confidence that Judge Alito would provide that check and balance. I cannot support this nomination."
Northwest University economists Robert Gordon and Ian Dew-Becker: “For the past 40 years, only the top 10% of the income distribution enjoyed a growth rate of real wage and salary income equal to or above the average rate of economy-wide productivity growth.”
France will develop its nuclear forces to counter states that might resort to using weapons of mass destruction, President Jacques Chirac stated.
For all of 2005, Motorola had positive operating cash flow of $4.6 billion, an excellent performance. The company's outlook for the first quarter of 2006 is for sales of
between $9.3 billion and $9.5 billion. The outlook for earnings per share is
in the range of $.27 to $.29, excluding expected stock option expense of $.02
per share and excluding any potential additional recovery relating to Telsim.
By 2010, Home Depot expects that Home Depot Supply will generate 18-19 percent
of overall sales. By the end of the decade, Home Depot Supply expects to
operate more than 1,500 locations, covering all 50 states, and will be the
largest diversified wholesale distribution business in the United States. "We are poised for dramatic growth over the next five years across our business," said CEO Nardelli. "Our planned acquisition of Hughes Supply is a great example of how we are rapidly replicating in the professional market the same type of transformation that we brought to the home improvement retail market."
Bush: “And, actually, the non-discretionary -- non-security discretionary spending -- I'm from Texas -- (laughter) -- is lower in '06 than it was in '05. We've actually reduced non-security discretionary spending.” His definition of non-discretionary must be different from mine. He is from Texas and I’m from New York City.
Boeing Co. stated Thursday that 60-day layoff notices will be issued to 84 employees at its Wichita, Kansas site tomorrow as a result of Department of Defense program delays and budget issues.
The recent jump in oil prices is "unwelcome" and could create short-term troubles for the U.S. economy, Treasury Secretary John Snow stated Thursday.
Investors pulled an estimated $1 billion from U.S. stock exchange-traded funds in the week through Wednesday, compared to an inflow of $1.3 billion the prior week, TrimTabs Investment Research stated Thursday. In addition, investors channeled an estimated $3.8 billion to mutual funds in the week ending Wednesday, building on inflows of $2.4 billion in the prior week, TrimTabs reported yesterday.
Trade between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) rose to 130.4 billion U.S. dollars last year, up 23.1 percent on a year-on-year basis.
The EU-3 on Thursday said that it isn’t looking at sanctions for Iran and sees an “important” role for India to help find a way to end the current impasse.
Novartis announced on Thursday that it will target Asia, especially China and India, as its expansion areas in future. China's pharmaceutical market expanded by 22 percent last year, while the proportion of people in India who can afford drugs is expected to rise from 35 percent to 80 percent in 2010, stated Daniel Vasella, chairman and CEO of the company.
Private equity and venture capital (VC) firms invested about $2.3 billion in Indian companies across 147 deals during 2005, the latest report by Venture Intelligence Media indicated yesterday. In 2004, VC firms invested $1.6 billion in 68 deals.
The pace of home sales in the nine-county Bay Area dropped year-over-year for the ninth month in a row in December, while prices fell 2.6 percent from November's record high of $625,000, a real estate information company reported today.
The 16% month-over-month decline in the number of sales is unusual as sales typically rise from November to December, DataQuick Information Systems said.
Median weekly earnings of the nation's 104.6 million full-time wage and salary workers were $659 in the fourth quarter of 2005, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday. This was 1.9 percent higher than a year earlier,
compared with a gain of 3.8 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the same period.
Ford Motor Co. may cut 25,000 or more jobs over four years as part of a restructuring to stem North American losses, Bloomberg News reported Friday.
Albertson's Inc. announced today that it has received an offer for the purchase of
the entire Company. The offer was received from a consortium that had previously submitted an offer for the Company in December. After reviewing the new proposal the Albertsons Board of Directors authorized management and its representatives to enter into negotiations.
Apparel maker Russell Corp. said 1,200 jobs in the U.S. will eventually be replaced in Honduras and Mexico. In addition, Russell said it is freezing its defined benefit plan, effective April 1, and will improve its 401(k) employee savings plan.
Mexico and the United States have agreed to end to the dispute about U.S. imports of Mexican cement.
Hollinger, owner of the Chicago Sun Times, will cut about 300 jobs at the newspaper.
Japan is considering stopping all imports of U.S. beef -- just a month after lifting a ban on the meat -- after finding risk materials that could cause mad cow disease in a shipment from New York on Friday.
Crude is trading above $67 a barrel this morning, the highest point in four months.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported that billings at U.S. architecture firms were positive every month in 2005 for the first time since 2000, pointing towards 2006 being the best year for nonresidential construction in six years. With construction
accounting for nine percent of GDP, increased nonresidential activity will
ease the effects of a projected slowdown in the residential market. The
Architecture Billings Index (ABI), a leading economic indicator of nonresidential construction activity, had a rating of 50.4 in December 2005 (any score above 50 indicates a positive score), compared to 58.4 for November 2005 and 47.8 for December 2004. "Considering the sluggish consumer spending coupled with the softening residential sector, nonresidential construction should be viewed as a key driver for the overall economy in 2006," said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. "The nonresidential upturn should continue into 2007 and can be attributed to pent up demand for new projects that weren't able to be undertaken in recent years."
U.S. December housing starts fell 8.9% to a 9-month low. Meanwhile, building permits declined 4.4%.
The Philly Fed diffusion index fell to 3.3 in January from 10.9 in December. This is the lowest reading since last June.
For all of 2005, U.S. crude oil production fell 6.6%, while imports of refined products rose 13.9% to a record 3.48 million barrels a day.
Senator Patrick Leahy: "At a time when the president is seizing unprecedented power, the Supreme Court needs to act as a check and to provide balance. I have no confidence that Judge Alito would provide that check and balance. I cannot support this nomination."
Northwest University economists Robert Gordon and Ian Dew-Becker: “For the past 40 years, only the top 10% of the income distribution enjoyed a growth rate of real wage and salary income equal to or above the average rate of economy-wide productivity growth.”
France will develop its nuclear forces to counter states that might resort to using weapons of mass destruction, President Jacques Chirac stated.
For all of 2005, Motorola had positive operating cash flow of $4.6 billion, an excellent performance. The company's outlook for the first quarter of 2006 is for sales of
between $9.3 billion and $9.5 billion. The outlook for earnings per share is
in the range of $.27 to $.29, excluding expected stock option expense of $.02
per share and excluding any potential additional recovery relating to Telsim.
By 2010, Home Depot expects that Home Depot Supply will generate 18-19 percent
of overall sales. By the end of the decade, Home Depot Supply expects to
operate more than 1,500 locations, covering all 50 states, and will be the
largest diversified wholesale distribution business in the United States. "We are poised for dramatic growth over the next five years across our business," said CEO Nardelli. "Our planned acquisition of Hughes Supply is a great example of how we are rapidly replicating in the professional market the same type of transformation that we brought to the home improvement retail market."
Bush: “And, actually, the non-discretionary -- non-security discretionary spending -- I'm from Texas -- (laughter) -- is lower in '06 than it was in '05. We've actually reduced non-security discretionary spending.” His definition of non-discretionary must be different from mine. He is from Texas and I’m from New York City.
Boeing Co. stated Thursday that 60-day layoff notices will be issued to 84 employees at its Wichita, Kansas site tomorrow as a result of Department of Defense program delays and budget issues.
The recent jump in oil prices is "unwelcome" and could create short-term troubles for the U.S. economy, Treasury Secretary John Snow stated Thursday.
Investors pulled an estimated $1 billion from U.S. stock exchange-traded funds in the week through Wednesday, compared to an inflow of $1.3 billion the prior week, TrimTabs Investment Research stated Thursday. In addition, investors channeled an estimated $3.8 billion to mutual funds in the week ending Wednesday, building on inflows of $2.4 billion in the prior week, TrimTabs reported yesterday.
Trade between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) rose to 130.4 billion U.S. dollars last year, up 23.1 percent on a year-on-year basis.
The EU-3 on Thursday said that it isn’t looking at sanctions for Iran and sees an “important” role for India to help find a way to end the current impasse.
Novartis announced on Thursday that it will target Asia, especially China and India, as its expansion areas in future. China's pharmaceutical market expanded by 22 percent last year, while the proportion of people in India who can afford drugs is expected to rise from 35 percent to 80 percent in 2010, stated Daniel Vasella, chairman and CEO of the company.
Private equity and venture capital (VC) firms invested about $2.3 billion in Indian companies across 147 deals during 2005, the latest report by Venture Intelligence Media indicated yesterday. In 2004, VC firms invested $1.6 billion in 68 deals.
The pace of home sales in the nine-county Bay Area dropped year-over-year for the ninth month in a row in December, while prices fell 2.6 percent from November's record high of $625,000, a real estate information company reported today.
The 16% month-over-month decline in the number of sales is unusual as sales typically rise from November to December, DataQuick Information Systems said.
Median weekly earnings of the nation's 104.6 million full-time wage and salary workers were $659 in the fourth quarter of 2005, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday. This was 1.9 percent higher than a year earlier,
compared with a gain of 3.8 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the same period.
Ford Motor Co. may cut 25,000 or more jobs over four years as part of a restructuring to stem North American losses, Bloomberg News reported Friday.
Albertson's Inc. announced today that it has received an offer for the purchase of
the entire Company. The offer was received from a consortium that had previously submitted an offer for the Company in December. After reviewing the new proposal the Albertsons Board of Directors authorized management and its representatives to enter into negotiations.
Apparel maker Russell Corp. said 1,200 jobs in the U.S. will eventually be replaced in Honduras and Mexico. In addition, Russell said it is freezing its defined benefit plan, effective April 1, and will improve its 401(k) employee savings plan.
Mexico and the United States have agreed to end to the dispute about U.S. imports of Mexican cement.
Hollinger, owner of the Chicago Sun Times, will cut about 300 jobs at the newspaper.
Japan is considering stopping all imports of U.S. beef -- just a month after lifting a ban on the meat -- after finding risk materials that could cause mad cow disease in a shipment from New York on Friday.
Crude is trading above $67 a barrel this morning, the highest point in four months.
Thursday, January 19, 2006
Volatility Is Awakening
1/19/05 Volatility Is Awakening
eBay Inc. posted strong fourth quarter results after the market closed but disappointed Wall Street by failing to raise its 2006 outlook. The shares dropped 5 percent in after-hours trading.
Walt Disney: “People look at you and me to see what they are supposed to be. And, if we don't disappoint them, maybe, just maybe, they won't disappoint us.”
Apple Computer Inc. forecast current-quarter results below Wall Street expectations, and its shares fell about 3 percent in volatile after-hours trading.
Barry Ritholtz: “Since the bottom on March 5, 2003, the S&P has sustained only three corrections of more than 6% and none greater than 9%. There were five corrections that ranged in strength from 25% to 45% from 1966 to 1982. That averages out to one major correction every 38 months or so. The S&P's last major correction was a 33% drop from March to July 2002. That was 42 months ago -- implying we are overdue for another steep decline."
Within the next five years nearly 70 brand-name drugs, including 19
blockbusters such as Zocor(R), Zoloft(R), and Ambien(R), collectively
accounting for more than $45 billion in U.S. sales, are anticipated to become
available as generics.
Ford Motor Co. had the lowest capacity utilization in North America last year followed by larger rival General Motors Corp., Ron Harbour, president of Harbour Consulting, said on Wednesday.
Ford utilized only 79 percent of its total North American production capacity in 2005, while GM used 87 percent, Harbour told an automotive conference in Dearborn, Michigan.
Average weekly earnings rose by 3.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, from
December 2004 to December 2005. After deflation by the CPI-W, average weekly
earnings decreased by 0.4 percent.
Goldman Sachs cut Advanced Micro Devices to underperform from in line, citing likely cyclically peaking margins, rich valuation and excess supply concerns.
Homebuilder D.R. Horton now expects 2006 earnings between $5.25 and $5.35 a share on revenue of more than $15.5 billion. For the fiscal year, Beazer’s management anticipates that earnings will "meet or exceed" the company’s target of $10.50 a share. Both homebuilders appear to be doing just fine.
According to thedeal.com and the WSJ, a consortium of private-equity firms and Supervalu have submitted a new bid for grocery chain Albertson's. The new bid is priced "a few cents" above $26 a share and is structured differently to diminish antitrust worries, the report said.
Newmont Mining Corp. stated full-year 2005 gold sales totaled 8.6 million ounces, and costs applicable to sales were $238 per ounce. The company expects gold sales of 8 million ounces in 2006 at costs applicable to sales of $270 to $280 per ounce.
Walt Disney Co. is in serious talks about acquiring Pixar Animation Studios , the Wall Street Journal reported this morning.
According to Bloomberg, China National Petroleum Corp. and India's Oil & Natural Gas Corp., the biggest oil companies in each nation, may be among bidders for a $3 billion venture in Russia operated by BP Plc.
Talking about India, Wal-Mart may be close to finalizing plans for entering the market in that country.
For the first time since August, natural gas traded below $9. Crude closed at $65.73.
The Nikkei rebounded 2.3%.
El Paso Corp. expects oil and gas production to rise in 2006 between 8 and 11 percent and reserves to grow by 5 to 10 percent during what the company said will be "a breakout year."
Putting matters in perspective, the U.S. consumes 20 million barrels of oil per day but produces only 5 ½ million barrels per day. Nigeria, which produces 2.6 million barrels per day, is the fifth biggest oil supplier to the U.S.
For all of 2005, the CPI gained 3.5%, the most in 5 years.
Foreign official institutions’ purchases of U.S. treasury and government agency bonds dropped to $5.9 billion in November from $13 billion in October. What happens when their appetite ceases altogether? You think this cannot take place?
Yesterday, Washington Mutual told about 1,000 call-center workers in Chatsworth, Calif. that their jobs are headed to San Antonio and Costa Rica.
Moscow is experiencing its coldest temperatures in 50 years.
Ford Motor Credit Co. announced plans to periodically sell up to $18 billion in floating-rate demand notes, which are unsecured and non-subordinated obligations of Ford Credit. They will rank equally with all other unsecured senior indebtedness of Ford Credit.
Citigroup upgraded Saks, Inc. to hold from sell and raised its price target to $21 from $17. It believes there's a 50/50 probability that Saks will continue to run as an ongoing business or be taken out. I continue to hold all my shares and have stated previously that, in my opinion, $22 to $23 is a reasonable price for the company.
UnitedHealth Group reported an 18% rise in fourth-quarter net earnings to $870 million, or 65 cents a share, and raised earnings guidance for 2006. As I often stated, this is one of my favorite companies in the entire medical field.
Albert Camus: “Our civilization survives in the complacency of cowardly or malignant minds -- a sacrifice to the vanity of aging adolescents.”
eBay Inc. posted strong fourth quarter results after the market closed but disappointed Wall Street by failing to raise its 2006 outlook. The shares dropped 5 percent in after-hours trading.
Walt Disney: “People look at you and me to see what they are supposed to be. And, if we don't disappoint them, maybe, just maybe, they won't disappoint us.”
Apple Computer Inc. forecast current-quarter results below Wall Street expectations, and its shares fell about 3 percent in volatile after-hours trading.
Barry Ritholtz: “Since the bottom on March 5, 2003, the S&P has sustained only three corrections of more than 6% and none greater than 9%. There were five corrections that ranged in strength from 25% to 45% from 1966 to 1982. That averages out to one major correction every 38 months or so. The S&P's last major correction was a 33% drop from March to July 2002. That was 42 months ago -- implying we are overdue for another steep decline."
Within the next five years nearly 70 brand-name drugs, including 19
blockbusters such as Zocor(R), Zoloft(R), and Ambien(R), collectively
accounting for more than $45 billion in U.S. sales, are anticipated to become
available as generics.
Ford Motor Co. had the lowest capacity utilization in North America last year followed by larger rival General Motors Corp., Ron Harbour, president of Harbour Consulting, said on Wednesday.
Ford utilized only 79 percent of its total North American production capacity in 2005, while GM used 87 percent, Harbour told an automotive conference in Dearborn, Michigan.
Average weekly earnings rose by 3.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, from
December 2004 to December 2005. After deflation by the CPI-W, average weekly
earnings decreased by 0.4 percent.
Goldman Sachs cut Advanced Micro Devices to underperform from in line, citing likely cyclically peaking margins, rich valuation and excess supply concerns.
Homebuilder D.R. Horton now expects 2006 earnings between $5.25 and $5.35 a share on revenue of more than $15.5 billion. For the fiscal year, Beazer’s management anticipates that earnings will "meet or exceed" the company’s target of $10.50 a share. Both homebuilders appear to be doing just fine.
According to thedeal.com and the WSJ, a consortium of private-equity firms and Supervalu have submitted a new bid for grocery chain Albertson's. The new bid is priced "a few cents" above $26 a share and is structured differently to diminish antitrust worries, the report said.
Newmont Mining Corp. stated full-year 2005 gold sales totaled 8.6 million ounces, and costs applicable to sales were $238 per ounce. The company expects gold sales of 8 million ounces in 2006 at costs applicable to sales of $270 to $280 per ounce.
Walt Disney Co. is in serious talks about acquiring Pixar Animation Studios , the Wall Street Journal reported this morning.
According to Bloomberg, China National Petroleum Corp. and India's Oil & Natural Gas Corp., the biggest oil companies in each nation, may be among bidders for a $3 billion venture in Russia operated by BP Plc.
Talking about India, Wal-Mart may be close to finalizing plans for entering the market in that country.
For the first time since August, natural gas traded below $9. Crude closed at $65.73.
The Nikkei rebounded 2.3%.
El Paso Corp. expects oil and gas production to rise in 2006 between 8 and 11 percent and reserves to grow by 5 to 10 percent during what the company said will be "a breakout year."
Putting matters in perspective, the U.S. consumes 20 million barrels of oil per day but produces only 5 ½ million barrels per day. Nigeria, which produces 2.6 million barrels per day, is the fifth biggest oil supplier to the U.S.
For all of 2005, the CPI gained 3.5%, the most in 5 years.
Foreign official institutions’ purchases of U.S. treasury and government agency bonds dropped to $5.9 billion in November from $13 billion in October. What happens when their appetite ceases altogether? You think this cannot take place?
Yesterday, Washington Mutual told about 1,000 call-center workers in Chatsworth, Calif. that their jobs are headed to San Antonio and Costa Rica.
Moscow is experiencing its coldest temperatures in 50 years.
Ford Motor Credit Co. announced plans to periodically sell up to $18 billion in floating-rate demand notes, which are unsecured and non-subordinated obligations of Ford Credit. They will rank equally with all other unsecured senior indebtedness of Ford Credit.
Citigroup upgraded Saks, Inc. to hold from sell and raised its price target to $21 from $17. It believes there's a 50/50 probability that Saks will continue to run as an ongoing business or be taken out. I continue to hold all my shares and have stated previously that, in my opinion, $22 to $23 is a reasonable price for the company.
UnitedHealth Group reported an 18% rise in fourth-quarter net earnings to $870 million, or 65 cents a share, and raised earnings guidance for 2006. As I often stated, this is one of my favorite companies in the entire medical field.
Albert Camus: “Our civilization survives in the complacency of cowardly or malignant minds -- a sacrifice to the vanity of aging adolescents.”
Wednesday, January 18, 2006
Trading Halt
1/18/06 Trading Halt
U.S. industrial output increased 0.6% in December while capacity utilization soared to 80.7%, the highest since October 2000, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday. For all of 2005, industrial production increased 3.2%. These developments are especially surprising
given the recent decline in the average hourly workweek as well as the drop in the factory workweek.
The Nikkei plunged 2.9 percent Wednesday in a session that had to be shortened by 20 minutes because of a surge in transactions. In the last two trading days this index has declined 5.7%.
Google Inc. will acquire dMarc Broadcasting Inc., a privately held developer of digital advertising technology for the radio industry based in Newport Beach, Calif.
With the financial assistance of Abbott Labs, Boston Scientific Corp. raised its bid for cardiac device maker Guidant Corp. to $27 billion or roughly $80 a share in cash and stock.
The Supreme Court upheld Oregon's physician-assisted suicide law, rejecting a Bush administration attempt to punish doctors who help terminally ill patients die.
John Berry noted that, in the 2006 U.S. budget documents, the administration said the government's long-term fiscal situation is ``unsustainable.'' Last month the Congressional Budget Office reached the same conclusion in a new study, ``The Long-Term Budget Outlook.'' If these observations were just made by the administration and the CBO, how is it that nothing concrete is done to change the situation?
Since Jan. 1, it has been quite something to watch the administration make the handling of Medicare for recipients almost intolerable. Interestingly, it wasn’t until Jan. 15 that Bush stated that, the health insurance plans in existence prior to Jan1, were to be held responsible for the first month’s supply of medication. If this were so, how come no one knew that except Bush? How come the federal government will not reimburse states, such as, California for the money expended to provide medication in January to these recipients? Do you recall 9/11? Do you recall Bush speaking to a class of youngsters? Do you remember his being told about the terrorists flying into the twin towers? What did he do? He went back to sitting in the classroom with the children. Not much has changed – witness Katrina and now Medicare. The nation has elected an individual who is paralyzed in the time of crisis. Harry Truman he is not.
According to a report Monday in the Sacramento Bee, Ralph’s which is owned by Kroger, is putting its stores in northern California up for sale.
The times of extraordinarily high U.S. labor productivity growth rates are over, at least for now, according to a report released today by The Conference Board. Though still healthy compared with many other developed nations, the productivity growth rate slumped to 1.8% in 2005 in the United States, down from 3% in 2004.
Some 1,632,000 new online job ads were offered in December, a decline of 187,000 or 10.3 percent from November, according to The Conference Board Help-Wanted OnLine Data Series(TM). The December level was well below the August 2005 peak of 2,131,000 new online job ads.
Results of a recent analysis of 49 Lipitor clinical trials involving more than 14,000 patients showed that the overall rates of treatment-related adverse events reported by patients taking the highest dose of Lipitor were low and similar to those reported by
patients who received placebo or the lowest dose of Lipitor. The analysis is
published in the current edition of the American Journal of Cardiology.
Research conducted by economists at the University of California,
Santa Cruz found that bills that target large businesses fail to make a dent
in the number of uninsured because the vast majority of those who experience
loss of coverage over time are:
* Unemployed,
* Employed part-time,
* Employed at firms with fewer than 10 employees, or
* Newly employed and have yet to accrue the tenure required for
eligibility.
Yahoo’s net income rose more than 83 percent, but its results fell one penny per share short of some projections, and the stock got clipped for almost $5 per share in after hours trading. Revenue was $1.5 billion, up from $1.08 billion the year before.
Intel’s fourth quarter revenue rose 6 percent to $10.2 billion, but the company in December projected it would be between $10.4 billion and $10.6 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thompson First Call expected $10.56 billion. Intel said total chip sales were higher, but average selling prices were lower. In the coming quarter, Intel said revenue should be between $9.1 billion and $9.7 billion. That is also below the First Call survey's projected $10.05 billion. In after hours trading the stock had clipped for close to three points.
In the fourth quarter of 2005 the inventory of unsold homes in the SF Bay Area at the $1.5 million or higher level increased dramatically. Availability was up by 112 percent in Santa Cruz County, 80 percent in Alameda County, 74 percent in Santa Clara County, 50 percent in Monterey County, 44 percent in Contra Costa County, 30 percent in San Mateo County and 24 percent in Santa Clara County.
IBM’s fourth quarter revenue totaled $24.4 billion, well below analysts' estimates of $25.4 billion.
SEC Commissioner Roel Campos of Houston pointed to studies that suggest chief executive officers now make about 400 times the salary of the average worker, up from 40 times a few decades ago.
A high-level intelligence assessment by the Bush administration concluded in early 2002 that the sale of uranium from Niger to Iraq was "unlikely" because of a host of economic, diplomatic and logistical obstacles, according to a secret memo that was recently declassified by the State Department. Why am I not one bit surprised by this revelation?
Last year, 43% of first-time home buyers purchased their homes with no-money-down loans, according to a study released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors.
If the margin rules on Wall Street were changed to no money down on purchases, then we could have a real casino.
After trading is over today, I wonder whether all the early January gains will have been erased for the Dow, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq? If that should occur, what spins will be provided by the folks at CNBC?
Crude is trading at $66.67 per barrel or about $10 higher than one month ago. Yesterday,
Heating oil jumped 4.5% to $1.79 a gallon and unleaded gas climbed 5.3% to $1.82 a gallon. Inflation is alive and well.
Yesterday, the yield curve inverted again.
U.S. industrial output increased 0.6% in December while capacity utilization soared to 80.7%, the highest since October 2000, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday. For all of 2005, industrial production increased 3.2%. These developments are especially surprising
given the recent decline in the average hourly workweek as well as the drop in the factory workweek.
The Nikkei plunged 2.9 percent Wednesday in a session that had to be shortened by 20 minutes because of a surge in transactions. In the last two trading days this index has declined 5.7%.
Google Inc. will acquire dMarc Broadcasting Inc., a privately held developer of digital advertising technology for the radio industry based in Newport Beach, Calif.
With the financial assistance of Abbott Labs, Boston Scientific Corp. raised its bid for cardiac device maker Guidant Corp. to $27 billion or roughly $80 a share in cash and stock.
The Supreme Court upheld Oregon's physician-assisted suicide law, rejecting a Bush administration attempt to punish doctors who help terminally ill patients die.
John Berry noted that, in the 2006 U.S. budget documents, the administration said the government's long-term fiscal situation is ``unsustainable.'' Last month the Congressional Budget Office reached the same conclusion in a new study, ``The Long-Term Budget Outlook.'' If these observations were just made by the administration and the CBO, how is it that nothing concrete is done to change the situation?
Since Jan. 1, it has been quite something to watch the administration make the handling of Medicare for recipients almost intolerable. Interestingly, it wasn’t until Jan. 15 that Bush stated that, the health insurance plans in existence prior to Jan1, were to be held responsible for the first month’s supply of medication. If this were so, how come no one knew that except Bush? How come the federal government will not reimburse states, such as, California for the money expended to provide medication in January to these recipients? Do you recall 9/11? Do you recall Bush speaking to a class of youngsters? Do you remember his being told about the terrorists flying into the twin towers? What did he do? He went back to sitting in the classroom with the children. Not much has changed – witness Katrina and now Medicare. The nation has elected an individual who is paralyzed in the time of crisis. Harry Truman he is not.
According to a report Monday in the Sacramento Bee, Ralph’s which is owned by Kroger, is putting its stores in northern California up for sale.
The times of extraordinarily high U.S. labor productivity growth rates are over, at least for now, according to a report released today by The Conference Board. Though still healthy compared with many other developed nations, the productivity growth rate slumped to 1.8% in 2005 in the United States, down from 3% in 2004.
Some 1,632,000 new online job ads were offered in December, a decline of 187,000 or 10.3 percent from November, according to The Conference Board Help-Wanted OnLine Data Series(TM). The December level was well below the August 2005 peak of 2,131,000 new online job ads.
Results of a recent analysis of 49 Lipitor clinical trials involving more than 14,000 patients showed that the overall rates of treatment-related adverse events reported by patients taking the highest dose of Lipitor were low and similar to those reported by
patients who received placebo or the lowest dose of Lipitor. The analysis is
published in the current edition of the American Journal of Cardiology.
Research conducted by economists at the University of California,
Santa Cruz found that bills that target large businesses fail to make a dent
in the number of uninsured because the vast majority of those who experience
loss of coverage over time are:
* Unemployed,
* Employed part-time,
* Employed at firms with fewer than 10 employees, or
* Newly employed and have yet to accrue the tenure required for
eligibility.
Yahoo’s net income rose more than 83 percent, but its results fell one penny per share short of some projections, and the stock got clipped for almost $5 per share in after hours trading. Revenue was $1.5 billion, up from $1.08 billion the year before.
Intel’s fourth quarter revenue rose 6 percent to $10.2 billion, but the company in December projected it would be between $10.4 billion and $10.6 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thompson First Call expected $10.56 billion. Intel said total chip sales were higher, but average selling prices were lower. In the coming quarter, Intel said revenue should be between $9.1 billion and $9.7 billion. That is also below the First Call survey's projected $10.05 billion. In after hours trading the stock had clipped for close to three points.
In the fourth quarter of 2005 the inventory of unsold homes in the SF Bay Area at the $1.5 million or higher level increased dramatically. Availability was up by 112 percent in Santa Cruz County, 80 percent in Alameda County, 74 percent in Santa Clara County, 50 percent in Monterey County, 44 percent in Contra Costa County, 30 percent in San Mateo County and 24 percent in Santa Clara County.
IBM’s fourth quarter revenue totaled $24.4 billion, well below analysts' estimates of $25.4 billion.
SEC Commissioner Roel Campos of Houston pointed to studies that suggest chief executive officers now make about 400 times the salary of the average worker, up from 40 times a few decades ago.
A high-level intelligence assessment by the Bush administration concluded in early 2002 that the sale of uranium from Niger to Iraq was "unlikely" because of a host of economic, diplomatic and logistical obstacles, according to a secret memo that was recently declassified by the State Department. Why am I not one bit surprised by this revelation?
Last year, 43% of first-time home buyers purchased their homes with no-money-down loans, according to a study released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors.
If the margin rules on Wall Street were changed to no money down on purchases, then we could have a real casino.
After trading is over today, I wonder whether all the early January gains will have been erased for the Dow, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq? If that should occur, what spins will be provided by the folks at CNBC?
Crude is trading at $66.67 per barrel or about $10 higher than one month ago. Yesterday,
Heating oil jumped 4.5% to $1.79 a gallon and unleaded gas climbed 5.3% to $1.82 a gallon. Inflation is alive and well.
Yesterday, the yield curve inverted again.
Tuesday, January 17, 2006
Viewpoints
1/17/06 Viewpoints
"Help Wanted" may become a bigger part of window signs for retailers as 35 percent of retail workers say they plan to shop for a new job in 2006, according to a recent CareerBuilder.com survey. Workers cite pay, workload and career development as the leading factors for their decisions to look for new opportunities this year. The survey,
"Job Forecast 2006 - Retail," was conducted from November 15, 2005 to Dec.6, 2005.
Ron Ellison: “Too many people today, politicians and social do-gooders foremost, are too young to recall Blackout Wardens, officials who came around door-to-door during WWII and made folks turn off their lights.”
Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf was sworn in as president of war-torn Liberia. She became Africa's first elected female head of state.
Al Gore: the use of the National Security Agency to eavesdrop on Americans without a court order shows that President Bush "has been breaking the law repeatedly and persistently. A president who breaks the law is a threat to the very structure of our government," he said.
Next months, Mervyn’s will close 20 stores in Washington, Oregon, and Utah.
John Hussman: “On average, this set of overvalued, overbought and overbullish conditions has historically produced tepid results even when the broad quality of market action has been favorable on the measures we use, and has been downright mean when the internal quality of market action is unfavorable (such periods include February 1962, December 1972, and August 1987, all which shortly preceded violent declines). Given current conditions, the quality of market action is best described as either tenuously unfavorable or neutral, so in any event, market risk hardly appears worth taking at present.”
Over the years, I have frequently written about the inadequate medical care provided our
Veterans. Presently, we have a situation where members of our National Guard have been forced to sue the federal government for reimbursement of out-of-pocket expenses, such as, what took place when they were called to Louisiana to assist with the aftermath of Katrina. At some point, Americans need to hold the Commander-in-Chief accountable. Until they do, our Republic will be at increasing levels of risk.
E.B. White: “Prejudice is a great time saver. You can form opinions without having to get the facts.”
Airbus stated that orders in 2005 rose to 1,055, topping Boeing's 1,002 orders for the year. It also delivered more planes than Boeing, at 378 planes compared to Boeing's 290.
The International Energy Agency said that the global demand for world oil should rise 2.2% in 2006 after a 1.3% climb in 2005. It also sees OPEC capacity rising by one million barrels a day in 2006. Crude is approaching $65 a barrel this morning.
The Nikkei declined 2.8%, the worst drubbing in 9 months.
Warren Buffett agreed to purchase San Francisco’s Business Wire, with 500 employees and offices worldwide, and revenue of $127 million in 2005.
Steve Jobs: “Based on today's stock market close, Apple is worth more than Dell.”
Consumer debt has been climbing faster than personal incomes and wages have been trailing the rate of inflation. How long can this combination take place?
Russia and China made clear on Tuesday they did not favor UN sanctions to induce Iran to scale back its nuclear program.
Last year Korea emerged as the second largest exporter to China, overtaking Taiwan with exports rising 24 percent from 2004 to US$77 billion. Over the same period Korea's imports of Chinese goods rose 26 percent to $35 billion. Japan continues as the largest exporter to China.
The Chinese Ambassador to Tehran said that the trade between Iran and China exceeds $10 billion and that China is to become Iran's primary trade partner in the near future, IRNA reported. Speaking at an Iran and China economic gathering Lio G Tan said that Iran and China trade registered record high last year.
"China imported over $1 billion of non-oil goods from Iran in 2004 and the figure doubled in 2005." China's imports of non-oil goods from Iran are among the highest of non-oil exports from Iran, he said. Also, the two nations gained great achievement in signing agreement on new projects that totaled 38 last year, Tan said.
Harry S. Truman: “When even one American - who has done nothing wrong - is forced by fear to shut his mind and close his mouth - then all Americans are in peril.”
"Help Wanted" may become a bigger part of window signs for retailers as 35 percent of retail workers say they plan to shop for a new job in 2006, according to a recent CareerBuilder.com survey. Workers cite pay, workload and career development as the leading factors for their decisions to look for new opportunities this year. The survey,
"Job Forecast 2006 - Retail," was conducted from November 15, 2005 to Dec.6, 2005.
Ron Ellison: “Too many people today, politicians and social do-gooders foremost, are too young to recall Blackout Wardens, officials who came around door-to-door during WWII and made folks turn off their lights.”
Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf was sworn in as president of war-torn Liberia. She became Africa's first elected female head of state.
Al Gore: the use of the National Security Agency to eavesdrop on Americans without a court order shows that President Bush "has been breaking the law repeatedly and persistently. A president who breaks the law is a threat to the very structure of our government," he said.
Next months, Mervyn’s will close 20 stores in Washington, Oregon, and Utah.
John Hussman: “On average, this set of overvalued, overbought and overbullish conditions has historically produced tepid results even when the broad quality of market action has been favorable on the measures we use, and has been downright mean when the internal quality of market action is unfavorable (such periods include February 1962, December 1972, and August 1987, all which shortly preceded violent declines). Given current conditions, the quality of market action is best described as either tenuously unfavorable or neutral, so in any event, market risk hardly appears worth taking at present.”
Over the years, I have frequently written about the inadequate medical care provided our
Veterans. Presently, we have a situation where members of our National Guard have been forced to sue the federal government for reimbursement of out-of-pocket expenses, such as, what took place when they were called to Louisiana to assist with the aftermath of Katrina. At some point, Americans need to hold the Commander-in-Chief accountable. Until they do, our Republic will be at increasing levels of risk.
E.B. White: “Prejudice is a great time saver. You can form opinions without having to get the facts.”
Airbus stated that orders in 2005 rose to 1,055, topping Boeing's 1,002 orders for the year. It also delivered more planes than Boeing, at 378 planes compared to Boeing's 290.
The International Energy Agency said that the global demand for world oil should rise 2.2% in 2006 after a 1.3% climb in 2005. It also sees OPEC capacity rising by one million barrels a day in 2006. Crude is approaching $65 a barrel this morning.
The Nikkei declined 2.8%, the worst drubbing in 9 months.
Warren Buffett agreed to purchase San Francisco’s Business Wire, with 500 employees and offices worldwide, and revenue of $127 million in 2005.
Steve Jobs: “Based on today's stock market close, Apple is worth more than Dell.”
Consumer debt has been climbing faster than personal incomes and wages have been trailing the rate of inflation. How long can this combination take place?
Russia and China made clear on Tuesday they did not favor UN sanctions to induce Iran to scale back its nuclear program.
Last year Korea emerged as the second largest exporter to China, overtaking Taiwan with exports rising 24 percent from 2004 to US$77 billion. Over the same period Korea's imports of Chinese goods rose 26 percent to $35 billion. Japan continues as the largest exporter to China.
The Chinese Ambassador to Tehran said that the trade between Iran and China exceeds $10 billion and that China is to become Iran's primary trade partner in the near future, IRNA reported. Speaking at an Iran and China economic gathering Lio G Tan said that Iran and China trade registered record high last year.
"China imported over $1 billion of non-oil goods from Iran in 2004 and the figure doubled in 2005." China's imports of non-oil goods from Iran are among the highest of non-oil exports from Iran, he said. Also, the two nations gained great achievement in signing agreement on new projects that totaled 38 last year, Tan said.
Harry S. Truman: “When even one American - who has done nothing wrong - is forced by fear to shut his mind and close his mouth - then all Americans are in peril.”
Monday, January 16, 2006
Interesting Tidbits
1/16/06 Interesting Tidbits
Nattokinase is an enzyme isolated from the vegetable cheese Natto; a typical and popular soybean food in the Japanese diet. Nattokinase has been found to have blood clot dissolving abilities. Studies have shown that men and women at high risk for strokes have a 70% reduction in risk by taking 100mg of nattokinase daily.
Nattokinase is an enzyme derived from a process of fermentation involving boiled soybeans and bacillus natto. Research has shown nattokinase to support the body in breaking up and dissolving the unhealthy coagulation of blood and to enhance fibrinolytic activity. For over 1000 years the Japanese have been consuming natto -- a fermented soy-based food that looks and tastes like soft cheese. Natto contains a unique enzyme called nattokinase, which was discovered by Dr. Hiroyuki Sumi in 1980, and has since been the subject of 17 studies, including two human studies, in Japan. Based on this research nattokinase has been shown to be a promising new nutrient that supports a healthy circulatory system. Nattokinase facilitates blood flow contributing to healthy circulation and supporting normal blood pressure.
Ford Motor Co. stated it had sold 82,225 of its own-brand vehicles in China in 2005, up 46 percent on the previous year.
Mike Shedlock: “If the FED is targeting asset prices, credit lending, and junk bonds, housing might be flattened by the time junk bonds capitulate. Then again there could be some sort of "credit event" as we saw with LTCM where overnight we went from complacency to near panic. The middle ground is to look for two more hikes, followed by a long pause. That is what happened in the UK and we seem to be following in their footsteps. A recession is coming but somehow the junk bond market and the equity markets have not gotten the message or worse yet just do not care (for now). The longer they continue not to care the more potential hikes the FED gets in.”
Rebels attacked a Royal Dutch Shell pumping station in Nigeria over the weekend. Since the beginning of the new year, crude oil futures have risen close to 5%. Gas at the pump is headed higher.
"With the housing market beginning to slow, consumers will be challenged to find new sources of spending power,”stated National Retail Federation Chief Economist Rosalind Wells in a statement. "The strong retail sales we saw in the second half of 2005 will be replaced by more conservative spending in the New Year."
On January 17, 2006, Benjamin Franklin will turn 300.
Mohamed ElBaradei, director-general of the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency, told Newsweek "For the last three years we have been doing
intensive verification in Iran, and even after three years I am not yet in a
position to make a judgment on the peaceful nature of the [nuclear] program,"
We still need to assure ourselves through access to documents, individuals, [and] locations that wehave seen all that we ought to see and that there is nothing fishy, if you
like, about the program."
Michelle Bachelet, the candidate of Chile’s center-left government coalition, won the country’s runoff election to become South America’s first popularly-elected female president.
Cisco Systems plans to expand its share of the consumer-electronics market by selling phones, radios and home-theater equipment, the Financial Times reported today.
Terry Savage: “Maryland lawmakers probably figure that Wal-Mart will be forced by business considerations to accept its decision. But they should check recent history before pushing Wal-Mart too far. In Quebec, Canada, Wal-Mart employees in one store voted to unionize. After the vote, Wal-Mart pulled up its trucks to the store, loaded up all the merchandise, and closed the store overnight -- leaving hundreds of workers jobless.
The union leaders in that community were ostracized for denying bargain-seeking locals their favorite place to shop, and for denying jobs to the former store employees. The legislature of Maryland might find itself in the same position.”
Stephen Roach: “The US accounted for 28.4% of world GDP in 2005 -- more than six times the 4.4% share of China and more than 16 times the 1.7% share of India.”
The Banker magazine has named Indian Finance Minister P Chidambaram as the Finance Minister of the year 2005 for Asia for retaining and pushing reforms and controlling fiscal deficit.
TheDeal.com on Albertsons: “It might be too early to declare the deal dead. In fact, sources indicate efforts are continuing behind the scenes to resurrect an acquisition plan, composed of Supervalu, Cerberus Capital, Kimco Realty, and CVS, and to return to Albertson’s board with an offer to buy the entire company and split it up among themselves.”
Japan will dispatch its first public-private mission to Canada's Alberta to study the feasibility of exploiting oil sands, or deposits of bitumen trapped in a mixture of sand, water and clay, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry stated Friday.
Steve Forbes: “Given his statements that gold is an obsolete, if not destructive, guide to monetary policy, Bernanke is not likely to recognize the inflation problem until it hits him--and the economy--square in the face. A year from now Greenspan's successor may, unfairly, resemble the ill-starred G. William Miller, whom Jimmy Carter appointed to head the Fed in December 1977 and who proceeded to stoke inflation to record highs.”
More vehicles were sold in China last year than in Japan, making China the world's second-largest auto market after the United States with almost 6 million units sold, the People's Daily said Friday. But if imports of 160,000 cars were excluded, China was still No. 3, the paper said. Domestic vehicle sales last year rose 14 percent from 2004 to 5.8 million units, the newspaper said, referring only to China-made products. Sales this year of vehicles are expected to grow 10 to 15 percent to 6.4 to 6.6 million units, the report said, citing figures from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
Many textile producers in south China's Guangdong were forced to cut jobs by a large margin due to the lack of export orders in the year 2006.
From Jan. 1 this year, some categories of textile and garment products were placed with new export restrictions to the European Union (EU) countries and America, the markets of which accounted for 34 percent of all of China's textile exports in 2005.
The lack of export orders forced many textile producers, especially small and medium-sized companies to cut jobs or give leaves to workers ahead of China's important holiday of Spring Festival, which will fall on Jan. 29.
David Yu: “Currently, more than 70% of the NYSE stocks and more than 55% of the Nasdaq stocks are traded above their 200-day moving averages.”
Aesop: “Don't let your special character and values, the secret that you know and no one else does, the truth -- don't let that get swallowed up by the great chewing complacency.”
Nattokinase is an enzyme isolated from the vegetable cheese Natto; a typical and popular soybean food in the Japanese diet. Nattokinase has been found to have blood clot dissolving abilities. Studies have shown that men and women at high risk for strokes have a 70% reduction in risk by taking 100mg of nattokinase daily.
Nattokinase is an enzyme derived from a process of fermentation involving boiled soybeans and bacillus natto. Research has shown nattokinase to support the body in breaking up and dissolving the unhealthy coagulation of blood and to enhance fibrinolytic activity. For over 1000 years the Japanese have been consuming natto -- a fermented soy-based food that looks and tastes like soft cheese. Natto contains a unique enzyme called nattokinase, which was discovered by Dr. Hiroyuki Sumi in 1980, and has since been the subject of 17 studies, including two human studies, in Japan. Based on this research nattokinase has been shown to be a promising new nutrient that supports a healthy circulatory system. Nattokinase facilitates blood flow contributing to healthy circulation and supporting normal blood pressure.
Ford Motor Co. stated it had sold 82,225 of its own-brand vehicles in China in 2005, up 46 percent on the previous year.
Mike Shedlock: “If the FED is targeting asset prices, credit lending, and junk bonds, housing might be flattened by the time junk bonds capitulate. Then again there could be some sort of "credit event" as we saw with LTCM where overnight we went from complacency to near panic. The middle ground is to look for two more hikes, followed by a long pause. That is what happened in the UK and we seem to be following in their footsteps. A recession is coming but somehow the junk bond market and the equity markets have not gotten the message or worse yet just do not care (for now). The longer they continue not to care the more potential hikes the FED gets in.”
Rebels attacked a Royal Dutch Shell pumping station in Nigeria over the weekend. Since the beginning of the new year, crude oil futures have risen close to 5%. Gas at the pump is headed higher.
"With the housing market beginning to slow, consumers will be challenged to find new sources of spending power,”stated National Retail Federation Chief Economist Rosalind Wells in a statement. "The strong retail sales we saw in the second half of 2005 will be replaced by more conservative spending in the New Year."
On January 17, 2006, Benjamin Franklin will turn 300.
Mohamed ElBaradei, director-general of the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency, told Newsweek "For the last three years we have been doing
intensive verification in Iran, and even after three years I am not yet in a
position to make a judgment on the peaceful nature of the [nuclear] program,"
We still need to assure ourselves through access to documents, individuals, [and] locations that wehave seen all that we ought to see and that there is nothing fishy, if you
like, about the program."
Michelle Bachelet, the candidate of Chile’s center-left government coalition, won the country’s runoff election to become South America’s first popularly-elected female president.
Cisco Systems plans to expand its share of the consumer-electronics market by selling phones, radios and home-theater equipment, the Financial Times reported today.
Terry Savage: “Maryland lawmakers probably figure that Wal-Mart will be forced by business considerations to accept its decision. But they should check recent history before pushing Wal-Mart too far. In Quebec, Canada, Wal-Mart employees in one store voted to unionize. After the vote, Wal-Mart pulled up its trucks to the store, loaded up all the merchandise, and closed the store overnight -- leaving hundreds of workers jobless.
The union leaders in that community were ostracized for denying bargain-seeking locals their favorite place to shop, and for denying jobs to the former store employees. The legislature of Maryland might find itself in the same position.”
Stephen Roach: “The US accounted for 28.4% of world GDP in 2005 -- more than six times the 4.4% share of China and more than 16 times the 1.7% share of India.”
The Banker magazine has named Indian Finance Minister P Chidambaram as the Finance Minister of the year 2005 for Asia for retaining and pushing reforms and controlling fiscal deficit.
TheDeal.com on Albertsons: “It might be too early to declare the deal dead. In fact, sources indicate efforts are continuing behind the scenes to resurrect an acquisition plan, composed of Supervalu, Cerberus Capital, Kimco Realty, and CVS, and to return to Albertson’s board with an offer to buy the entire company and split it up among themselves.”
Japan will dispatch its first public-private mission to Canada's Alberta to study the feasibility of exploiting oil sands, or deposits of bitumen trapped in a mixture of sand, water and clay, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry stated Friday.
Steve Forbes: “Given his statements that gold is an obsolete, if not destructive, guide to monetary policy, Bernanke is not likely to recognize the inflation problem until it hits him--and the economy--square in the face. A year from now Greenspan's successor may, unfairly, resemble the ill-starred G. William Miller, whom Jimmy Carter appointed to head the Fed in December 1977 and who proceeded to stoke inflation to record highs.”
More vehicles were sold in China last year than in Japan, making China the world's second-largest auto market after the United States with almost 6 million units sold, the People's Daily said Friday. But if imports of 160,000 cars were excluded, China was still No. 3, the paper said. Domestic vehicle sales last year rose 14 percent from 2004 to 5.8 million units, the newspaper said, referring only to China-made products. Sales this year of vehicles are expected to grow 10 to 15 percent to 6.4 to 6.6 million units, the report said, citing figures from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
Many textile producers in south China's Guangdong were forced to cut jobs by a large margin due to the lack of export orders in the year 2006.
From Jan. 1 this year, some categories of textile and garment products were placed with new export restrictions to the European Union (EU) countries and America, the markets of which accounted for 34 percent of all of China's textile exports in 2005.
The lack of export orders forced many textile producers, especially small and medium-sized companies to cut jobs or give leaves to workers ahead of China's important holiday of Spring Festival, which will fall on Jan. 29.
David Yu: “Currently, more than 70% of the NYSE stocks and more than 55% of the Nasdaq stocks are traded above their 200-day moving averages.”
Aesop: “Don't let your special character and values, the secret that you know and no one else does, the truth -- don't let that get swallowed up by the great chewing complacency.”
Sunday, January 15, 2006
A Page From Saturday Night Live
1/14/06-1/15/06 A Page From Saturday Night Live
Watching the press conference with Bush and German Chancellor Merkel was like watching a scene from SNL. Here’s some of the dialogue from Bush: “what we’re doing here is diplomacy…We talked about a lot, and the reason we talked about a lot is because
we've got a lot in common…Guantanamo is a necessary part of protecting the American
people…Germany is a really important country. It's right in the heart of Europe …We've got something in common, we both didn't exactly landslide our way into office. …I'm looking forward to consultations, visits, contacts, phone calls, all the things you do. And now I'm going to take her to lunch.”
You don’t know whether to laugh or cry. You have just watched the President performing “hard work.”
Leo Tolstoy: “Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.”
Supervalu Chief Executive Jeffrey Noddle: "We viewed the sale of Albertsons and specifically the availability of certain of its premier properties as an extraordinary opportunity for us to consider," Analyst John Heinbockel of Goldman, Sachs & Co. said in a report to investors Friday that Supervalu and CVS "are almost certainly still willing to pursue a deal."
Under the new merger agreement, Johnson & Johnson will pay $40.52 in cash and
.493 shares of Johnson & Johnson common stock for each outstanding share of
Guidant common stock. Valued as of the market close on January 13, the
transaction has a per share value of $71.00 to Guidant shareholders.
The Economist magazine: “By borrowing against capital gains on their homes, households have been able to consume more than they earn. Robust consumer spending has boosted GDP growth, but at the cost of a negative personal saving rate, a growing burden of household debt and a huge current-account deficit.”
Mexican nationals crossing into the U.S. to shop are spurring retail growth and driving up sales, spending billions of dollars in American states bordering Mexico, according to a group of economists and retailers who convened Friday in San Antonio.
"Cross-border shopping accounts for a lot of jobs along the border, and it's significant even in places like San Antonio and Houston," said Keith Phillips, a senior economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' San Antonio branch.
Shoppers are responsible for creating more than 63,000 jobs along the Texas-Mexico border, said Suad Ghaddar, a researcher with the Center for Border Economic Studies at the University of Texas Pan-American."Mexican shoppers are a major cornerstone in the economies of border communities," she said.
Robert McHugh: “There is a major Bearish Divergence occurring between the NASDAQ 100's price trend and the trend of its 10 day average Advance/Decline line, warning of a significant decline once this topping pattern completes.”
Congress appropriated $357 billion from 2002 through the end of 2005 for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and related security issues, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service; however, two research papers — one authored by an Iraq war critic, the other by a scholar at a conservative research center — sparked controversy by suggesting that when economic factors not included in the budget are added, the true cost to the U.S. economy over the next decade could be anywhere from $657 billion to $2 trillion for the Iraq war alone.
Benjamin Franklin: “When you’re finished changing, you’re finished.”
The FDA warned consumers Friday not to use two unapproved Brazilian diet pills because testing has revealed they may contain tranquilizers, antidepressants and stimulants.The pills are sold over the Web as Emagrece Sim, or the Brazilian Diet Pill, and Herbathin, the Food and Drug Administration said.
Mike Burk: “Many of the major indices hit multiyear highs on Wednesday ending a run of 7 consecutive up days. Periods of 7 consecutive up days are relatively rare. Measured by the Wilshire 5000 (Wil-5) the market has had 3 periods of 7 consecutive up days in the past year. In May of 1996 the Wil-5 moved up for over 7 consecutive days and that blow-off marked the high for the next 5 months. Since then each period of 7 consecutive up days has been followed by a modest pull back lasting 1 day to 6 weeks followed by higher highs.”
You think inflation is under control? The metals give a different picture. Platinum closed at a 26-year high of $1,043.60 and gold jumped to $557 an ounce. Silver climbed to $9.165. Meanwhile, keep an eye on the dollar index. Since the beginning of 2006, it has resumed its downward path.
Recently, there have been a number of plant closings. Tyson will close two plants and cut 400 jobs. Dan River is closing a weaving mill and 490 employees will lose their jobs. Web Furniture is closing a Galax, Virginia factory and there will be over 300 lost jobs. Vaughn Furniture also closed a Galax factory. About 200 jobs will be lost.
For index investors it is wise to remember that, since 1926, the average p/e ratio for the S&P 500 index has been 15.9. Presently, it exceeds 19. With 2-year Treasury bonds yielding 4.35% and the p/e at 19, the risk/reward for the S&P is, on a historical basis, not promising. When you factor in the real inflation rate, it is even less promising. One does not have to live in fear of risk; however, it is prudent to respect risk. Keep it simple.
Among those who have caught H5H1 so far, the mortality rate has approached 50%. By comparison, 8,000 were infected with SARS and 774 perished.
In November, the median price for a home on Oahu was $418,000 -- well below a peak of $569,000 in August and 8 percent below the year-ago median -- according to DataQuick.
Over the past 52 weeks, M3 has expanded by 8.5%; however, in recent months, it has grown by 10.5%.
The year-end Wall Street bonus pool was a staggering $21.5 billion.
Options on the Vix begin trading Feb. 24. This may serve as an excellent hedging device.
How about those Seattle Seahawks!
Once again, it is business as usual at the federal government. We witnessed the ineptness after Katrina. Now we have a Medicare disaster for the 6 million elderly, low-income, and disabled people who were automatically switched into the new drug program on January 1. Previously, these people were covered by Medicaid. Not surprisingly, the federal government was not prepared to handle the influx of 6 million people.
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Thursday ordered state health officials to cover pharmacy costs for prescription drugs for five days, and the state Legislature plans to meet Jan. 17 to extend the emergency coverage for another 10 days, at a cost to the state of some $70 million. Further extensions are possible. California officials want assurances the federal government will reimburse California for the costs of the emergency care. More than a dozen other states are also providing emergency funding for drug coverage, among them Arkansas, Pennsylvania and Hawaii.
Warren Buffett: “Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.”
Watching the press conference with Bush and German Chancellor Merkel was like watching a scene from SNL. Here’s some of the dialogue from Bush: “what we’re doing here is diplomacy…We talked about a lot, and the reason we talked about a lot is because
we've got a lot in common…Guantanamo is a necessary part of protecting the American
people…Germany is a really important country. It's right in the heart of Europe …We've got something in common, we both didn't exactly landslide our way into office. …I'm looking forward to consultations, visits, contacts, phone calls, all the things you do. And now I'm going to take her to lunch.”
You don’t know whether to laugh or cry. You have just watched the President performing “hard work.”
Leo Tolstoy: “Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.”
Supervalu Chief Executive Jeffrey Noddle: "We viewed the sale of Albertsons and specifically the availability of certain of its premier properties as an extraordinary opportunity for us to consider," Analyst John Heinbockel of Goldman, Sachs & Co. said in a report to investors Friday that Supervalu and CVS "are almost certainly still willing to pursue a deal."
Under the new merger agreement, Johnson & Johnson will pay $40.52 in cash and
.493 shares of Johnson & Johnson common stock for each outstanding share of
Guidant common stock. Valued as of the market close on January 13, the
transaction has a per share value of $71.00 to Guidant shareholders.
The Economist magazine: “By borrowing against capital gains on their homes, households have been able to consume more than they earn. Robust consumer spending has boosted GDP growth, but at the cost of a negative personal saving rate, a growing burden of household debt and a huge current-account deficit.”
Mexican nationals crossing into the U.S. to shop are spurring retail growth and driving up sales, spending billions of dollars in American states bordering Mexico, according to a group of economists and retailers who convened Friday in San Antonio.
"Cross-border shopping accounts for a lot of jobs along the border, and it's significant even in places like San Antonio and Houston," said Keith Phillips, a senior economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' San Antonio branch.
Shoppers are responsible for creating more than 63,000 jobs along the Texas-Mexico border, said Suad Ghaddar, a researcher with the Center for Border Economic Studies at the University of Texas Pan-American."Mexican shoppers are a major cornerstone in the economies of border communities," she said.
Robert McHugh: “There is a major Bearish Divergence occurring between the NASDAQ 100's price trend and the trend of its 10 day average Advance/Decline line, warning of a significant decline once this topping pattern completes.”
Congress appropriated $357 billion from 2002 through the end of 2005 for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and related security issues, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service; however, two research papers — one authored by an Iraq war critic, the other by a scholar at a conservative research center — sparked controversy by suggesting that when economic factors not included in the budget are added, the true cost to the U.S. economy over the next decade could be anywhere from $657 billion to $2 trillion for the Iraq war alone.
Benjamin Franklin: “When you’re finished changing, you’re finished.”
The FDA warned consumers Friday not to use two unapproved Brazilian diet pills because testing has revealed they may contain tranquilizers, antidepressants and stimulants.The pills are sold over the Web as Emagrece Sim, or the Brazilian Diet Pill, and Herbathin, the Food and Drug Administration said.
Mike Burk: “Many of the major indices hit multiyear highs on Wednesday ending a run of 7 consecutive up days. Periods of 7 consecutive up days are relatively rare. Measured by the Wilshire 5000 (Wil-5) the market has had 3 periods of 7 consecutive up days in the past year. In May of 1996 the Wil-5 moved up for over 7 consecutive days and that blow-off marked the high for the next 5 months. Since then each period of 7 consecutive up days has been followed by a modest pull back lasting 1 day to 6 weeks followed by higher highs.”
You think inflation is under control? The metals give a different picture. Platinum closed at a 26-year high of $1,043.60 and gold jumped to $557 an ounce. Silver climbed to $9.165. Meanwhile, keep an eye on the dollar index. Since the beginning of 2006, it has resumed its downward path.
Recently, there have been a number of plant closings. Tyson will close two plants and cut 400 jobs. Dan River is closing a weaving mill and 490 employees will lose their jobs. Web Furniture is closing a Galax, Virginia factory and there will be over 300 lost jobs. Vaughn Furniture also closed a Galax factory. About 200 jobs will be lost.
For index investors it is wise to remember that, since 1926, the average p/e ratio for the S&P 500 index has been 15.9. Presently, it exceeds 19. With 2-year Treasury bonds yielding 4.35% and the p/e at 19, the risk/reward for the S&P is, on a historical basis, not promising. When you factor in the real inflation rate, it is even less promising. One does not have to live in fear of risk; however, it is prudent to respect risk. Keep it simple.
Among those who have caught H5H1 so far, the mortality rate has approached 50%. By comparison, 8,000 were infected with SARS and 774 perished.
In November, the median price for a home on Oahu was $418,000 -- well below a peak of $569,000 in August and 8 percent below the year-ago median -- according to DataQuick.
Over the past 52 weeks, M3 has expanded by 8.5%; however, in recent months, it has grown by 10.5%.
The year-end Wall Street bonus pool was a staggering $21.5 billion.
Options on the Vix begin trading Feb. 24. This may serve as an excellent hedging device.
How about those Seattle Seahawks!
Once again, it is business as usual at the federal government. We witnessed the ineptness after Katrina. Now we have a Medicare disaster for the 6 million elderly, low-income, and disabled people who were automatically switched into the new drug program on January 1. Previously, these people were covered by Medicaid. Not surprisingly, the federal government was not prepared to handle the influx of 6 million people.
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Thursday ordered state health officials to cover pharmacy costs for prescription drugs for five days, and the state Legislature plans to meet Jan. 17 to extend the emergency coverage for another 10 days, at a cost to the state of some $70 million. Further extensions are possible. California officials want assurances the federal government will reimburse California for the costs of the emergency care. More than a dozen other states are also providing emergency funding for drug coverage, among them Arkansas, Pennsylvania and Hawaii.
Warren Buffett: “Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.”
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)