8/14/04 The Improving Inflation Front
Crude did hit $46 a barrel yesterday; however, there were other bright spots. According to the BLS, the crude goods index declined 0.2% in July after climbing 1.6% in June. The index for finished consumer foods declined 1.6% in July, compared with a 0.6% drop in June. The core PPI is up 1.7% in the past 12 months; however, in July it rose a scant 0.1%.
The Hune trade gap increased by $19 billion to a record $55.8 billion.
China stated crude import growth held in July at 40% versus the same period last year.
The Univ. of Michigan August consumer sentiment declined from July's 96.7 to 94. The expectations index dropped to 84.7 from 91.2.
Thursday, August 12, 2004
8/13/04 Plant Closings Are Accelerating
La-Z-Boy blames the closing of three manufacturing plants on the U.S. antidumping tariffs set against Chinese producers of wood furniture. The company will lay off 645 employees. Low-carb diets took a toll on the NorSun Food Group's potato processing plant in Ft. Kent, Maine. The plant closed without advanced warning and 50 employees were out of work. Pennsylvania House Furniture will close its manufacturing and warehouse facilities in Lewisburg, White Deer, and Milton, PA. About 425 jobs will be lost. MeadWestvaco will close its St. Joseph, MO operations and 400 jobs will be lost. They will also close a facility in Garland, TX and 200 jobs will be eliminated. The Columbus, Ohio Techneglas plant will close and 300+ employees will lose their jobs. The 106 year old Union City Body plant in Indiana will close and 115 jobs will be lost. Fifteen days like this and you'll have a loss of 32,000 jobs. This is not a soft patch. Plant closings are building a head of steam. It's no wonder that the yield on 10 year treasury notes has dropped to 4.24%. It is also not surprising that, in the latest American Research Group poll, Kerry leads Bush 50 to 43, and in the latest Quinnpiac poll in Florida, Kerry leads Bush 47 to 41.
The BLS reported that prices for imported consumer goods were unchanged for the second consecutive month in July. In contrast, imported capital goods prices fell 0.1% in July, the sixth consecutive monthly decline. Export prices rose 0.4% in July, and overall, export prices rose 4.4% over the last year.
GM recalled 200,000 Buicks.
Mexico's auto industry output and exports fell in July.
July retail sales, ex autos, were up only 0.2%. Record high energy prices and stagnant wage growth are taking a toll on the paycheck-to-paycheck consumer. Muted sales are contributing to rising business inventories.
IBM stated it continues to experience growth in consulting and services, and the company will hire 18,800 new workers in 2004 with one-third in the U.S. and the Americas.
Servers and printers highlight strategic product growth for Dell in the latest quarter. In addition, U.S. consumers purchased 29% more Dell notebook computers than in the same period a year ago. The company generated more than $700 million in cash from operations in the quarter. Dell continues to be one of the great ones.
GDP annualized growth in Japan was a disappointing 1.7% rather than the expectations of 4.1%
There are many analysts who ponder the significance of round numbers, such as the Dow 10,000, the Nasdaq 2000, and gold $400. It's fair to state that most of these analysts believe there is a nugget in their spoken and/or written words. I suggest the nugget is not in the proximity to the round numbers but rather the substance and sustainability supporting the number. The most recent economic data has created a question about the judgment of those calling the month of June simply a "soft patch." When you question the reliability of the Fed's thinking, it creates an uneasiness in the marketplace. This uneasiness flushes round numbers like shit going through a goose. As such, the Dow closed at 9814 and the Nasdaq at 1752.
La-Z-Boy blames the closing of three manufacturing plants on the U.S. antidumping tariffs set against Chinese producers of wood furniture. The company will lay off 645 employees. Low-carb diets took a toll on the NorSun Food Group's potato processing plant in Ft. Kent, Maine. The plant closed without advanced warning and 50 employees were out of work. Pennsylvania House Furniture will close its manufacturing and warehouse facilities in Lewisburg, White Deer, and Milton, PA. About 425 jobs will be lost. MeadWestvaco will close its St. Joseph, MO operations and 400 jobs will be lost. They will also close a facility in Garland, TX and 200 jobs will be eliminated. The Columbus, Ohio Techneglas plant will close and 300+ employees will lose their jobs. The 106 year old Union City Body plant in Indiana will close and 115 jobs will be lost. Fifteen days like this and you'll have a loss of 32,000 jobs. This is not a soft patch. Plant closings are building a head of steam. It's no wonder that the yield on 10 year treasury notes has dropped to 4.24%. It is also not surprising that, in the latest American Research Group poll, Kerry leads Bush 50 to 43, and in the latest Quinnpiac poll in Florida, Kerry leads Bush 47 to 41.
The BLS reported that prices for imported consumer goods were unchanged for the second consecutive month in July. In contrast, imported capital goods prices fell 0.1% in July, the sixth consecutive monthly decline. Export prices rose 0.4% in July, and overall, export prices rose 4.4% over the last year.
GM recalled 200,000 Buicks.
Mexico's auto industry output and exports fell in July.
July retail sales, ex autos, were up only 0.2%. Record high energy prices and stagnant wage growth are taking a toll on the paycheck-to-paycheck consumer. Muted sales are contributing to rising business inventories.
IBM stated it continues to experience growth in consulting and services, and the company will hire 18,800 new workers in 2004 with one-third in the U.S. and the Americas.
Servers and printers highlight strategic product growth for Dell in the latest quarter. In addition, U.S. consumers purchased 29% more Dell notebook computers than in the same period a year ago. The company generated more than $700 million in cash from operations in the quarter. Dell continues to be one of the great ones.
GDP annualized growth in Japan was a disappointing 1.7% rather than the expectations of 4.1%
There are many analysts who ponder the significance of round numbers, such as the Dow 10,000, the Nasdaq 2000, and gold $400. It's fair to state that most of these analysts believe there is a nugget in their spoken and/or written words. I suggest the nugget is not in the proximity to the round numbers but rather the substance and sustainability supporting the number. The most recent economic data has created a question about the judgment of those calling the month of June simply a "soft patch." When you question the reliability of the Fed's thinking, it creates an uneasiness in the marketplace. This uneasiness flushes round numbers like shit going through a goose. As such, the Dow closed at 9814 and the Nasdaq at 1752.
8/12/04 Assurances Are Not Sure Things
The Saudis tried to reassure the market that, by increasing daily production, oil shortages would be avoided and the price would go down. The price did go down on that announcement- for an hour or so. Today Sept. crude futures are at $45.12. So much for placing value on assurances.
The opposite is true in the treasury market. The "experts" give daily reasons why interest rates must rise. The market ignores the experts. A clue might be that, in the most recent report, business sales rose only 0.1% and that inventories increased 1.1% in June. Another clue might be that, even with crude at record levels, import prices rose only 0.2% in July. This is even more significant when you consider that consumer prices in China rose 5.3% in the latest month. I found that interesting since the Financial Times reported that Chinese data show easing inflationary pressures. Lastly, Redbook Research stated that sales at major retailers in August were down 0.5% compared with July.
Blue Chip Economic Indicators Survey cut their growth forecast stating "the persistence of sky-high energy prices, lackluster growth in employment and earnings, a weak stock market, anxiety about possible terrorist attacks, and an uncertain outcome to this November's national elections could dampen consumer spending and business investment well into the fall."
Bush: "I'm running for re-election because I understand how to take a strong economy and make it stronger."
Niles Helmboldt, a San Francisco banker and a Republican: "I'm not as well off as I was. My cost of living has gone up, but wages have not kept pace. I don't see his (Bush's) economic policies helping. It's not a pretty picture."
The IEA stated world oil demand will jump by 1.8 million barrels in 2005 after a gain of 2.5 million barrels a day this year.
Dramexchange.com stated there is weaker-than-expected demand for computer-memory chips from computer manufacturers.
John Chambers of Cisco: "Most of the CEOs that I talk with view the economy as growing at a modest level and are a little more cautious...than they were a quarter ago." John, I would asy HP is a lot more than cautious. They badly missed estimates for this latest quarter and for the next quarter they will also disappoint badly. Fortunately, there is Wal-Mart. Even though their profits are rising faster than sales, for the latest quarter, comps for the Wal-Mart stores rose 3.2% while Sam's Club hit it big at an 8.8% jump.
New federal overtime rules go into effect in less than two weeks. Generally, employees are eligible for overtime if they work more than 40 hours a week, except if they are classified as administrative workers, executives, or professionals. Workers in those classifications are exempt from overtime pay.
The middle class squeeze is partly explained by the Kaiser Family Foundation, Health Reserach and Education Trust. They stated that, since Jan. 2001, the cost of family health insurance has increased more than $2,700. From 2001 to 2004, workers' share of family health care premiums has increased by nearly 50%.
The Saudis tried to reassure the market that, by increasing daily production, oil shortages would be avoided and the price would go down. The price did go down on that announcement- for an hour or so. Today Sept. crude futures are at $45.12. So much for placing value on assurances.
The opposite is true in the treasury market. The "experts" give daily reasons why interest rates must rise. The market ignores the experts. A clue might be that, in the most recent report, business sales rose only 0.1% and that inventories increased 1.1% in June. Another clue might be that, even with crude at record levels, import prices rose only 0.2% in July. This is even more significant when you consider that consumer prices in China rose 5.3% in the latest month. I found that interesting since the Financial Times reported that Chinese data show easing inflationary pressures. Lastly, Redbook Research stated that sales at major retailers in August were down 0.5% compared with July.
Blue Chip Economic Indicators Survey cut their growth forecast stating "the persistence of sky-high energy prices, lackluster growth in employment and earnings, a weak stock market, anxiety about possible terrorist attacks, and an uncertain outcome to this November's national elections could dampen consumer spending and business investment well into the fall."
Bush: "I'm running for re-election because I understand how to take a strong economy and make it stronger."
Niles Helmboldt, a San Francisco banker and a Republican: "I'm not as well off as I was. My cost of living has gone up, but wages have not kept pace. I don't see his (Bush's) economic policies helping. It's not a pretty picture."
The IEA stated world oil demand will jump by 1.8 million barrels in 2005 after a gain of 2.5 million barrels a day this year.
Dramexchange.com stated there is weaker-than-expected demand for computer-memory chips from computer manufacturers.
John Chambers of Cisco: "Most of the CEOs that I talk with view the economy as growing at a modest level and are a little more cautious...than they were a quarter ago." John, I would asy HP is a lot more than cautious. They badly missed estimates for this latest quarter and for the next quarter they will also disappoint badly. Fortunately, there is Wal-Mart. Even though their profits are rising faster than sales, for the latest quarter, comps for the Wal-Mart stores rose 3.2% while Sam's Club hit it big at an 8.8% jump.
New federal overtime rules go into effect in less than two weeks. Generally, employees are eligible for overtime if they work more than 40 hours a week, except if they are classified as administrative workers, executives, or professionals. Workers in those classifications are exempt from overtime pay.
The middle class squeeze is partly explained by the Kaiser Family Foundation, Health Reserach and Education Trust. They stated that, since Jan. 2001, the cost of family health insurance has increased more than $2,700. From 2001 to 2004, workers' share of family health care premiums has increased by nearly 50%.
Tuesday, August 10, 2004
8/11/04 Measure This!
Tomorrow is a travel day. As such, I continue as a substitute blogger this afternoon. For the first time, crude futures topped $45 a barrel. Richard Schaeffer of ABN AMRO, while talking about the terror premium for oil, stated "we probably have a $5 to $10 extra charge on top of what the price should be." Meanwhile, the Energy Dept predicted lower retail gas prices and crude for the quarter; however, the price level predicted, $41 a barrel, was10% higher than the prediction made just one month ago. Rather than going out on a terror limb and shorting crude futures, one might consider buying the yen. The risk/reward appears more favorable.
I began by discussing crude because the Fed stated "the economy appears poised to resume a stronger pace of expansion going forward." They blamed the recent softness in output growth and the slowing of job creation on "the substantial rise in energy prices." In sum, the Fed is basing a forecast on a decline in oil prices, and that is highly speculative. The Fed's Phillips stated a Sept. interest rate hike was "a toss up." That indicates the Fed's lack of confidence in their forecasting ability. The Fed and Bush have at least three things in common- both fail to acknowledge mistakes; both attempt to mask mistakes with rhetoric; and both try to change the landscape to suit their original positions. Inflation, ex energy, is moderating. Wages and benefits continue to trail the inflation rate on an annualized basis. Productivity continues to exceed inflation. GDP growth is declining monthly. Job creation has fallen sharply for three consecutive months. There was not one valid reason to raise the Fed Funds rate and the Discount rate today.
Housing has been the strongest sector of the economy for the past two years. According to a July survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders, builders report shortages of cement, gypsum wallboard, oriented strand board, steel framing, and insulating materials. They state these shortages could result in serious disruptions in the housing market.
Countrywide Credit's July loan production fell to $30 billion from $51.8 billion last July and down 7% from this June.
I wonder whether the Fed knows Nat'l Semi expects 1st quarter sales to drop 4-5% and that Cisco anticipates sales in the Sept. quarter to be flat to up 2%. Cisco's cash flow from operations in the June quarter were $2.1 billion, a decline from the prior quarter's $2.4 billion. Inventory turns were 6.4 this quarter compared with the year ago's 6.8 times. In this quarter Cisco repurchased 90 million shares for $2 billion or all but $100 million of their latest 90 days of cash flow. For the entire fiscal year, they repurchased 408 million shares for $9.1 billion. Considering the limited growth in routers and switches, this does not appear to be money well-spent.
Prior to raising rates, the Fed might have considered the growing list of layoffs announced just recently: KMart to cut 10% of HQ; Lockheed Martin to cut 149; Bosch USA to lay off 530; Sykes to cut 121; Dow Chemical to eliminate 160 employees; the IRS will cut 218 tech employees; Gruner & Jahr USA to lay off 105 workers; Bristol Meyers will phase out 120 jobs; and Premier Blue Cross to cut 82 employees.
A reporter from the Arizona Republic observed John McCain embarked on a multi-state campaign swing with Pres. Bush for what t-shirt vendors shouldmarket as the "Dishonest and Dishonorable Tour."
Tomorrow is a travel day. As such, I continue as a substitute blogger this afternoon. For the first time, crude futures topped $45 a barrel. Richard Schaeffer of ABN AMRO, while talking about the terror premium for oil, stated "we probably have a $5 to $10 extra charge on top of what the price should be." Meanwhile, the Energy Dept predicted lower retail gas prices and crude for the quarter; however, the price level predicted, $41 a barrel, was10% higher than the prediction made just one month ago. Rather than going out on a terror limb and shorting crude futures, one might consider buying the yen. The risk/reward appears more favorable.
I began by discussing crude because the Fed stated "the economy appears poised to resume a stronger pace of expansion going forward." They blamed the recent softness in output growth and the slowing of job creation on "the substantial rise in energy prices." In sum, the Fed is basing a forecast on a decline in oil prices, and that is highly speculative. The Fed's Phillips stated a Sept. interest rate hike was "a toss up." That indicates the Fed's lack of confidence in their forecasting ability. The Fed and Bush have at least three things in common- both fail to acknowledge mistakes; both attempt to mask mistakes with rhetoric; and both try to change the landscape to suit their original positions. Inflation, ex energy, is moderating. Wages and benefits continue to trail the inflation rate on an annualized basis. Productivity continues to exceed inflation. GDP growth is declining monthly. Job creation has fallen sharply for three consecutive months. There was not one valid reason to raise the Fed Funds rate and the Discount rate today.
Housing has been the strongest sector of the economy for the past two years. According to a July survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders, builders report shortages of cement, gypsum wallboard, oriented strand board, steel framing, and insulating materials. They state these shortages could result in serious disruptions in the housing market.
Countrywide Credit's July loan production fell to $30 billion from $51.8 billion last July and down 7% from this June.
I wonder whether the Fed knows Nat'l Semi expects 1st quarter sales to drop 4-5% and that Cisco anticipates sales in the Sept. quarter to be flat to up 2%. Cisco's cash flow from operations in the June quarter were $2.1 billion, a decline from the prior quarter's $2.4 billion. Inventory turns were 6.4 this quarter compared with the year ago's 6.8 times. In this quarter Cisco repurchased 90 million shares for $2 billion or all but $100 million of their latest 90 days of cash flow. For the entire fiscal year, they repurchased 408 million shares for $9.1 billion. Considering the limited growth in routers and switches, this does not appear to be money well-spent.
Prior to raising rates, the Fed might have considered the growing list of layoffs announced just recently: KMart to cut 10% of HQ; Lockheed Martin to cut 149; Bosch USA to lay off 530; Sykes to cut 121; Dow Chemical to eliminate 160 employees; the IRS will cut 218 tech employees; Gruner & Jahr USA to lay off 105 workers; Bristol Meyers will phase out 120 jobs; and Premier Blue Cross to cut 82 employees.
A reporter from the Arizona Republic observed John McCain embarked on a multi-state campaign swing with Pres. Bush for what t-shirt vendors shouldmarket as the "Dishonest and Dishonorable Tour."
8/10/04 Productivity And Prosperity
There are some who hold that the productivity of jobs is a key element to our prosperity and not necessarily the number of jobs reported in either an establishment or household survey. In actuality, there are many components to the makings of prosperity. If we examine the latest BLS numbers, it will quickly become apparent that the Bush tax cuts have not initiated positive impetus in the workplace for those producing output in both the nonfarm and business sectors.
In the second quarter, productivity rose 2.9% in the nonfarm sector and 1.9% in the business sector while unit labor costs increased 1.9% on an annualized basis. During this period, real hourly compensation, adjusted for inflation, increased 0.1% on an annualized basis. Prductivity growth in the business sector reflected increases of 3.5% in output and 1.5% in hours. In manufacturing, in the second quarter, productivity rose 7.5% in manufacturing as output increased 6.6% and hours declined 0.9%(seasonally adjusted rates); growth was 5.7% in durable goods manufacturing; and 10.7% in nondurable goods. It should be noted that, according to the BLS, output and hours include about 13% of U.S. business-sector employment.
Analyzing these BLS numbers, we can quickly come to the realization that, those producing the output, have lagged in hours worked and in hourly compensation. Taking all the BLS numbers as a whole, since Jan. 2001, there has been a decline in hours worked, in compensation adjusted for inflation, and in the number of jobs in the nonfarm sector. Even though productivity has increased over this period, prosperity has not found its way into paychecks of the output producing workers. Greenspan does understand this. Many other economists and doctorates do not. That is most unfortunate. It goes to the core of what is wrong in the workplace.
Crude hovers close to the $45 level.
Trump Hotels to file Chapter 11.
Ford is laying off 5,000 salaried employees.
There are some who hold that the productivity of jobs is a key element to our prosperity and not necessarily the number of jobs reported in either an establishment or household survey. In actuality, there are many components to the makings of prosperity. If we examine the latest BLS numbers, it will quickly become apparent that the Bush tax cuts have not initiated positive impetus in the workplace for those producing output in both the nonfarm and business sectors.
In the second quarter, productivity rose 2.9% in the nonfarm sector and 1.9% in the business sector while unit labor costs increased 1.9% on an annualized basis. During this period, real hourly compensation, adjusted for inflation, increased 0.1% on an annualized basis. Prductivity growth in the business sector reflected increases of 3.5% in output and 1.5% in hours. In manufacturing, in the second quarter, productivity rose 7.5% in manufacturing as output increased 6.6% and hours declined 0.9%(seasonally adjusted rates); growth was 5.7% in durable goods manufacturing; and 10.7% in nondurable goods. It should be noted that, according to the BLS, output and hours include about 13% of U.S. business-sector employment.
Analyzing these BLS numbers, we can quickly come to the realization that, those producing the output, have lagged in hours worked and in hourly compensation. Taking all the BLS numbers as a whole, since Jan. 2001, there has been a decline in hours worked, in compensation adjusted for inflation, and in the number of jobs in the nonfarm sector. Even though productivity has increased over this period, prosperity has not found its way into paychecks of the output producing workers. Greenspan does understand this. Many other economists and doctorates do not. That is most unfortunate. It goes to the core of what is wrong in the workplace.
Crude hovers close to the $45 level.
Trump Hotels to file Chapter 11.
Ford is laying off 5,000 salaried employees.
Monday, August 09, 2004
8/9/04 The Market Is A Leading Economic Indicator
Acorn mutual fund's Ralph Wanger stated "the market usually leads. O ne could argue that the recovery we've had was predicted by the market last year." Conversely, with the market indexes making new 2004 lows, maybe the present slowdown and possible future recession is being predicted. However, the most recent Bloomberg survey of 54 economists reveals expectations of third quarter GDP growth of 3.9%. In other words, they expect a 30% improvement from the 3% growth rate in the second quarter. These are the same economists who predicted a gain in July's non-farm payrolls of 240,000. I wonder how many of these same economists believe the Snowman's predictions of strong job gains in the second half of this year. They probably forgot that the Snowman's performance at CSX was the worst of all the CEOs at the major railroads. That may be the reason for Bush choosing him as Secretary of the Treasury. He could relate to him.
Why was U.S. machine tool demand up about 32% in the six months ended June 30? Bush's 50% expensing allowance for machine tools is the answer. That provision expires at the end of this year. This is no more than demand on steroids. It creates a false impression of well-being and is not sustainable. Even the Fed took the bait. They have forgotten the Hummer tax-credit.
According to a Time Magazine poll published Saturday, the economy is the biggest issue in this year's election. Even if Bush "finds" bin Laden, he still will be playing a card from a losing deck.
Who is hiring? Last year, Infosys of Bangalore hired 9,000 employees. That's more than Microsoft hired. Revenues at Infosys exceeded $1 billion for the first time. Microsoft's revenues are over 30 times greater. Infosys is expanding in the Silicon Valley and Texas. Microsoft is expanding in India.
Bangalore-based Elind Computers developed an internalization engine called Stride that can intelligently cross/or route orders depending on the liquidity source. Wall Street firms can hopefully improve service and lower transaction costs.
Acorn mutual fund's Ralph Wanger stated "the market usually leads. O ne could argue that the recovery we've had was predicted by the market last year." Conversely, with the market indexes making new 2004 lows, maybe the present slowdown and possible future recession is being predicted. However, the most recent Bloomberg survey of 54 economists reveals expectations of third quarter GDP growth of 3.9%. In other words, they expect a 30% improvement from the 3% growth rate in the second quarter. These are the same economists who predicted a gain in July's non-farm payrolls of 240,000. I wonder how many of these same economists believe the Snowman's predictions of strong job gains in the second half of this year. They probably forgot that the Snowman's performance at CSX was the worst of all the CEOs at the major railroads. That may be the reason for Bush choosing him as Secretary of the Treasury. He could relate to him.
Why was U.S. machine tool demand up about 32% in the six months ended June 30? Bush's 50% expensing allowance for machine tools is the answer. That provision expires at the end of this year. This is no more than demand on steroids. It creates a false impression of well-being and is not sustainable. Even the Fed took the bait. They have forgotten the Hummer tax-credit.
According to a Time Magazine poll published Saturday, the economy is the biggest issue in this year's election. Even if Bush "finds" bin Laden, he still will be playing a card from a losing deck.
Who is hiring? Last year, Infosys of Bangalore hired 9,000 employees. That's more than Microsoft hired. Revenues at Infosys exceeded $1 billion for the first time. Microsoft's revenues are over 30 times greater. Infosys is expanding in the Silicon Valley and Texas. Microsoft is expanding in India.
Bangalore-based Elind Computers developed an internalization engine called Stride that can intelligently cross/or route orders depending on the liquidity source. Wall Street firms can hopefully improve service and lower transaction costs.
Sunday, August 08, 2004
8/8/04 Playing Cards
Bush: "We're a nation in danger." This was from yesterday's radio address. He elected to play the terror/danger card once again. It's over and over again. Why? Would you like him to talk about the economy? He can't relate to that. He stated the other day "the economy is strong and getting stronger." He has a job- at least for another few months. He has never worried about finding employment. Family and friends took care of that chore. As such, he spends and spends. He doesn't know anything different. It's not his money. The twin tower deficits depreciate the dollar and erode the purchasing power of Americans. Bush pushes for a weaker dollar in an effort to enhance exports. Unfortunately, with all the plant closings and loss of jobs, what do we export? Boeing will deliver 285 planes this year, and only a portion are for export. We export farm products. Of course, farm imports are rising each year. Just go to the supermarket. Buying American might mean toothpaste. If you go to McDonald's, the meat could come from Canada. The coffee at Starbucks comes from many foreign countries. Krispy Kreme is American, but Americans are cutting down on carbs. You can't blame Bush. It's the terror card or bust.
The Fed meets Tuesday. They can't play the growth card. Second quarter growth dropped to 3%, and the third quarter will certainly be less. They are left with the inflation card. They can point to crude being up 30% this year and milk is higher. Of course, wages are only 1.9% higher on an annual basis. If they don't increase rates, they signal the economy is in more than a "soft patch." If they raise rates, economic activity, including hiring, could decrease even more so. Will they swallow and state they misread the economy? Can you see these supposed geniuses with the doctorates doing that? They can always pull a Snowman and state growth will pick up and so will hiring, and then remark, if wrong, adjustments can be fine-tuned down the road. It's the soft patch card or bust.
Against the euro, the dollar had its biggest weekly drop since November.
Schwab forecasts more job cuts.
High crude prices are hurting airlines, truckers, and orange juice manufacturers.
Greg Maddux gets his 300th win.
San Jose's city manager forecasts that annual revenue from the federal gov't will plunge 80% this year to $1 million, and that California's new budget will eliminate another $11 million from the city's $725 million general fund.
The Climate Prediction Centre stated sea surface temperatures have risen in the central Pacific Ocean and may "indicate the possible early stages of a warm episode" and that El Nino could possibly develop by late 2004.
Bush: "We're a nation in danger." This was from yesterday's radio address. He elected to play the terror/danger card once again. It's over and over again. Why? Would you like him to talk about the economy? He can't relate to that. He stated the other day "the economy is strong and getting stronger." He has a job- at least for another few months. He has never worried about finding employment. Family and friends took care of that chore. As such, he spends and spends. He doesn't know anything different. It's not his money. The twin tower deficits depreciate the dollar and erode the purchasing power of Americans. Bush pushes for a weaker dollar in an effort to enhance exports. Unfortunately, with all the plant closings and loss of jobs, what do we export? Boeing will deliver 285 planes this year, and only a portion are for export. We export farm products. Of course, farm imports are rising each year. Just go to the supermarket. Buying American might mean toothpaste. If you go to McDonald's, the meat could come from Canada. The coffee at Starbucks comes from many foreign countries. Krispy Kreme is American, but Americans are cutting down on carbs. You can't blame Bush. It's the terror card or bust.
The Fed meets Tuesday. They can't play the growth card. Second quarter growth dropped to 3%, and the third quarter will certainly be less. They are left with the inflation card. They can point to crude being up 30% this year and milk is higher. Of course, wages are only 1.9% higher on an annual basis. If they don't increase rates, they signal the economy is in more than a "soft patch." If they raise rates, economic activity, including hiring, could decrease even more so. Will they swallow and state they misread the economy? Can you see these supposed geniuses with the doctorates doing that? They can always pull a Snowman and state growth will pick up and so will hiring, and then remark, if wrong, adjustments can be fine-tuned down the road. It's the soft patch card or bust.
Against the euro, the dollar had its biggest weekly drop since November.
Schwab forecasts more job cuts.
High crude prices are hurting airlines, truckers, and orange juice manufacturers.
Greg Maddux gets his 300th win.
San Jose's city manager forecasts that annual revenue from the federal gov't will plunge 80% this year to $1 million, and that California's new budget will eliminate another $11 million from the city's $725 million general fund.
The Climate Prediction Centre stated sea surface temperatures have risen in the central Pacific Ocean and may "indicate the possible early stages of a warm episode" and that El Nino could possibly develop by late 2004.
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