12/31/05 2005
I will provide a short recap of some highlights in 2005. Even though history can repeat, I try not to spend too much writing time on the past but rather focus on the present and what is most likely to occur around the corner.
The trend in Iraq remains ominous. Despite the elections and the Constitution, 841 of our fighting men and women were killed and that is only 5 less than in 2004 and represents an increase of 73% over the level in 2003. The tragedy resulting from this year’s historic hurricane season was quite overwhelming. FEMA’s ineptness was brought starkly to light. Our government continues to spend at record levels, our twin tower deficits climb higher and higher to the sky, and our nation’s complacency level makes me puke. It almost makes me as sick as listening to the lies coming out of Washington, DC.
From a financial standpoint, the dollar trade-weighted index rose 10%; however, between 2002 and 2004 this index had declined by 27%. The M3 money supply reached about $10.2 trillion and expanded at a rate of approximately 7.5% over the year. Bank credit expanded by 11% and real estate loans over 14%. Total mortgage debt rose by $200 billion to approximately $1.4 trillion. It is no wonder that we saw record new and existing home sales.
The stars for the year were the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, which rose 39% (crude was up 41%, natural gas + 58%, gasoline rose by 41 cents a gallon on average, gold up 18% and silver +30%, and copper up 45%); global M&A activity increased by 38%; there were record-breaking stock buybacks of $456 billion—thanks to the one-time repatriation of foreign earnings; Google; and Apple.
A big surprise was the flat performance of the Dow, Nasdaq, and the S&P 500. The Dow lost 65 points or 0.6%; the Nasdaq rose 30 points or 1.4%; and the S&P 500 rose 36 points or 3%.
Wages on Main Street continued to trail inflation. That was a big disappointment. It has been a yearly occurrence of late.
I made some lousy predictions. I underestimated the global demand for the Boeing 787, the Dreamliner. After a sharp drop, the yen barely recovered against the dollar. After Hewlett’s rise of 35%, I thought it was a good idea to short it and go long Dell. Hewlett continued to rise another 3% and Dell continued to decline another 4%. The acquisition of Albertsons has not taken place and the stock has declined by approximately 2+ points.
As for my good calls, I never feel a need to recount them.
Tonight we turn the page on 2005. One can always look at the past year’s disappointments as well as the joyous moments and tally up the score. For me, each year begins and ends with family and friends. Each year the toll of losing a family member and/or a friend gets heavier on my soul. I am thankful for the love and devotion I receive each day from those who remain in my heart. I feel deeply for the families who have lost love ones in Iraq and from the devastating hurricanes. I feel for thousands who have been wounded and injured-both physically and emotionally- from the war in Iraq.
I pray for less complacency and more outrage. I pray that 2006 will bring less lies, more global rational thought, and more kindness.
Saturday, December 31, 2005
Friday, December 30, 2005
Numbers
12/30/05 Numbers
Housing starts fell significantly in November throughout California, but the overall starts for 2005 are the same as 2004's "robust numbers," according to the California Building Industry Association. The building association attributed the 18 percent drop in November to 9,400 starts to the fact that builders needed to sell the homes they had already built or were under construction.
On a year-to-date basis, Alan Nevin, the association' chief economist, noted in the press release that total permits were almost exactly even with the first 11 months of 2004 - 193,562 this year compared to 193,652 last year. "The slowdown in November will give builders an opportunity to clear out their standing inventory," Nevin said. "We anticipate that 2005 will conclude with figures matching 2004, which was a very good year for the industry."
November U.S. existing home sales fell 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 6.97 million, the lowest since March, while inventories of homes on the market rose 1.2% to 2.9 million, the most in nearly 20 years.
WPP Group Chief Executive Sir Martin Sorrell told the Times of London in an interview that the outlook for the advertising market in the U.S. in 2006 could be at risk of a shower. He did note, however, that at present there “there were no signs of a bath or a shower.”
Yesterday, the yield curve inverted in the final hour of trading, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note down to 4.368% vs. a 2-year yield of 4.381%. If the curve inversion grows, banks and lenders will have to charge home buyers higher rates on ARMs than on fixed loans. Total household mortgage debt is approaching $8.4 trillion dollars, and over 40% is floating-rate. Does that raise any concerns?
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8 percent to 1161.06, its lowest year-end level since 1998, when it closed at 1146.70. The index was down 8.3 percent from its closing level in the last session of 2004. The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 1.0 percent to 278.75 Friday. It was down 11.7 percent from last year's final session.
The Goldman, Sachs & Co., Nielsen//NetRatings and Harris Interactive(R) fifth annual Holiday eSpending Report revealed that online holiday shopping totaled $30.1
billion, excluding travel, during the 2005 holiday season (October 29 -December 23). This season's online spending in the United States resulted in a
30 percent increase (+/- 3.1 percent margin of error) from the 2004 holiday
season.
According to a study of more than 1,300 hiring managers nationwide by CareerBuilder.com and America Online, the survey, titled "Key Hiring Trends to Watch in 2006," indicated the following:
Bigger Paychecks
-- 51 percent of hiring managers plan to increase salaries on initial
offers for new employees; 32 percent will raise offers by 3 percent
or more and 16 percent will increase them by 5 percent or more.
-- 78 percent of hiring managers plan to increase paychecks for existing
employees; 57 percent will raise compensation levels by 3 percent or
more and 22 percent will raise levels by 5 percent or more.
-- 31 percent of hiring managers expressed concern over a shortage of
skilled workers and intellectual capital lost due to the large segment
of Baby Boomers approaching retirement.
-- An even greater number -- 45 percent -- expect to recruit retirees
from other companies or offer incentives for workers at or approaching
retirement age to extend their employment at their organizations.
Ron Ellison: “By our calculations if you figured the inflation rate the old fashion way, before they began fiddling with the figures and the indicators, inflation is now running about 6.5 or 7 percent. That's nearly three to three and a half times what most money market funds yield. It also reflects a similar ratio to what officials say is the current inflation rate. And if you believe that the government doesn't have good reason to keep inflation fears under wraps, you probably believe that Mata Hari was a nun.”
"The administration now projects that the statutory debt limit, currently $8.184 trillion, will be reached in mid-February 2006," Snow said in a letter to 21 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate released by Treasury after financial markets had closed. Snow said that the Treasury, if the debt limit was not raised by then, would have to take "extraordinary actions" to keep paying its bills for everything from Social Security to national defense spending. Even if Treasury took "all available prudent and legal actions to avoid breaching the statutory debt limit, we anticipate that we can finance government operations no longer than mid-March." Congress has increased the limit by $2.4 trillion since Bush took office, voting to raise the ceiling in June 2002, May 2003 and November 2004. In sum, since taking office in Jan. 2001, the debt limit has been raised by over 40%! Where is the outrage? My recommendation continues to be the same it has been for the last 4 years—do not raise the debt limit. Either authorize a pay-as-you-go system or close the Treasury down. There is too much spending, too much debt, and too much pork. Take a stand. The Congress is gutless. They will do absolutely nothing and the voters will do absolutely nothing. It is no wonder the voters accept lies from this administration. The majority does not have the word “outrage” in their vocabulary.
Marc Gerstein, Director of investment research at Reuters.com, wrote an interesting article on Albertsons, and provided an approach towards establishing the worth in a buyout of the company. Gerstein stated the possibility of another deal or future shareholder activism and the good dividend yield could keep things interesting.
Henri Frederic Amiel: “Truth is not only violated by falsehood; it may be equally outraged by silence.”
Housing starts fell significantly in November throughout California, but the overall starts for 2005 are the same as 2004's "robust numbers," according to the California Building Industry Association. The building association attributed the 18 percent drop in November to 9,400 starts to the fact that builders needed to sell the homes they had already built or were under construction.
On a year-to-date basis, Alan Nevin, the association' chief economist, noted in the press release that total permits were almost exactly even with the first 11 months of 2004 - 193,562 this year compared to 193,652 last year. "The slowdown in November will give builders an opportunity to clear out their standing inventory," Nevin said. "We anticipate that 2005 will conclude with figures matching 2004, which was a very good year for the industry."
November U.S. existing home sales fell 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 6.97 million, the lowest since March, while inventories of homes on the market rose 1.2% to 2.9 million, the most in nearly 20 years.
WPP Group Chief Executive Sir Martin Sorrell told the Times of London in an interview that the outlook for the advertising market in the U.S. in 2006 could be at risk of a shower. He did note, however, that at present there “there were no signs of a bath or a shower.”
Yesterday, the yield curve inverted in the final hour of trading, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note down to 4.368% vs. a 2-year yield of 4.381%. If the curve inversion grows, banks and lenders will have to charge home buyers higher rates on ARMs than on fixed loans. Total household mortgage debt is approaching $8.4 trillion dollars, and over 40% is floating-rate. Does that raise any concerns?
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8 percent to 1161.06, its lowest year-end level since 1998, when it closed at 1146.70. The index was down 8.3 percent from its closing level in the last session of 2004. The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 1.0 percent to 278.75 Friday. It was down 11.7 percent from last year's final session.
The Goldman, Sachs & Co., Nielsen//NetRatings and Harris Interactive(R) fifth annual Holiday eSpending Report revealed that online holiday shopping totaled $30.1
billion, excluding travel, during the 2005 holiday season (October 29 -December 23). This season's online spending in the United States resulted in a
30 percent increase (+/- 3.1 percent margin of error) from the 2004 holiday
season.
According to a study of more than 1,300 hiring managers nationwide by CareerBuilder.com and America Online, the survey, titled "Key Hiring Trends to Watch in 2006," indicated the following:
Bigger Paychecks
-- 51 percent of hiring managers plan to increase salaries on initial
offers for new employees; 32 percent will raise offers by 3 percent
or more and 16 percent will increase them by 5 percent or more.
-- 78 percent of hiring managers plan to increase paychecks for existing
employees; 57 percent will raise compensation levels by 3 percent or
more and 22 percent will raise levels by 5 percent or more.
-- 31 percent of hiring managers expressed concern over a shortage of
skilled workers and intellectual capital lost due to the large segment
of Baby Boomers approaching retirement.
-- An even greater number -- 45 percent -- expect to recruit retirees
from other companies or offer incentives for workers at or approaching
retirement age to extend their employment at their organizations.
Ron Ellison: “By our calculations if you figured the inflation rate the old fashion way, before they began fiddling with the figures and the indicators, inflation is now running about 6.5 or 7 percent. That's nearly three to three and a half times what most money market funds yield. It also reflects a similar ratio to what officials say is the current inflation rate. And if you believe that the government doesn't have good reason to keep inflation fears under wraps, you probably believe that Mata Hari was a nun.”
"The administration now projects that the statutory debt limit, currently $8.184 trillion, will be reached in mid-February 2006," Snow said in a letter to 21 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate released by Treasury after financial markets had closed. Snow said that the Treasury, if the debt limit was not raised by then, would have to take "extraordinary actions" to keep paying its bills for everything from Social Security to national defense spending. Even if Treasury took "all available prudent and legal actions to avoid breaching the statutory debt limit, we anticipate that we can finance government operations no longer than mid-March." Congress has increased the limit by $2.4 trillion since Bush took office, voting to raise the ceiling in June 2002, May 2003 and November 2004. In sum, since taking office in Jan. 2001, the debt limit has been raised by over 40%! Where is the outrage? My recommendation continues to be the same it has been for the last 4 years—do not raise the debt limit. Either authorize a pay-as-you-go system or close the Treasury down. There is too much spending, too much debt, and too much pork. Take a stand. The Congress is gutless. They will do absolutely nothing and the voters will do absolutely nothing. It is no wonder the voters accept lies from this administration. The majority does not have the word “outrage” in their vocabulary.
Marc Gerstein, Director of investment research at Reuters.com, wrote an interesting article on Albertsons, and provided an approach towards establishing the worth in a buyout of the company. Gerstein stated the possibility of another deal or future shareholder activism and the good dividend yield could keep things interesting.
Henri Frederic Amiel: “Truth is not only violated by falsehood; it may be equally outraged by silence.”
Wednesday, December 28, 2005
Consumers
12/29/05 Consumers
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased to 103.6 in December
up from 98.3 in November. The Present Situation Index surged to 121.5 from 113.2.
The Expectations Index increased to 91.6 from 88.4 last month.
"Consumer confidence continues to bounce back and is now at its highest
level since Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast," says Lynn Franco,
Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center. "The resiliency of
the economy, recent declines in prices at the pump, and job growth have
consumers feeling more confident at year-end than they felt at the start of
2005. Even though all of the improvement over the past twelve months has been
in consumers' assessment of current conditions, and expectations remain below
earlier levels, consumers are confident that the economy will continue to
expand in 2006."
The outlook for the labor market did not change. Those expecting more jobs
to become available in the next six months was virtually unchanged at 14.3
percent versus 14.1 percent a month ago. Those expecting fewer jobs was also
virtually unchanged at 18.0 percent versus 18.1 percent in November. The
proportion of consumers anticipating their incomes to increase in the months
ahead declined to 20.6 percent from 21.3 percent last month. I find the latter
expectation quite interesting. How does one's confidence rise if the expectation
is low for for one's income to rise? A disconnect appears to be at work.
Front-month crude futures shot up $1.66, or 2.9%, to close at $59.82 on the New York Mercantile Exchange,
and had reached a two-week high of $60.45.
Blogger is having some software difficulties. I will try to
add more thoughts tomorrow.
Historical Predictions
12/28/05 Historical Predictions
The vast majority of pundits have predicted a rally between Xmas and the first two days of 2006. After all, the past has provided substance to that prediction. Who would have thought the Dow would decline 100+ points on the first trading day after Xmas? Has that taken place before? Who would have thought that inverting of the yield curve would send buyers fleeing? After all, the Fed says it's different this time. Brief inversions don't count, such as, in 1998. Twice in the past 40 years an inversion of the yield curve has not been followed by a recession. Will this inversion be brief and not count or will it be protracted and still not count? Will the Fed continue to print money at an unsustainable rate in an effort to stimulate economic activity? Will the Fed buy long-term bonds in order to reduce already low mortgage rates and help boost house buying?
It's winter. It is suppose to get cold. Unfortunately, for those speculating on heating oil and natural gas prices, the last week has been a most unprofitable downdraft. Yesterday, January natural gas futures fell $1.261 to settle at $11.022 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the lowest closing price since the Sept. 13 settlement of $10.763, which was slightly above the level on the day Hurricane Katrina struck and took out significant Gulf of Mexico output.
Front-month natural gas futures reached an all-time intraday high of $15.78 in mid-December as cold weather and predictions of snowstorms raised fears about supplies.
The equity market is nearing an oversold condition and fright is building in the natural gas trading pits. The likelihood is for both markets to have a bounce-back rally.
During WWI the stock market closed for 4 1/2 months. In 1933 banks were closed. After 9/11, the equity market was closed for several days. Are there
cracks in our economic infrastructure that could cause closure again?
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications for the week ended December 23 decreased 6.8 percent to 554.1 from the previous week's 594.6. Volume was at its lowest level since the week ended May 24, 2002, when the index hit 516.9. Maybe consumers were just too busy buying gift cards.
The Talmud: "Never expose yourself unnecessarily to danger; a miracle may not save you...and if it does, it will be deducted from your share of luck or merit."
The vast majority of pundits have predicted a rally between Xmas and the first two days of 2006. After all, the past has provided substance to that prediction. Who would have thought the Dow would decline 100+ points on the first trading day after Xmas? Has that taken place before? Who would have thought that inverting of the yield curve would send buyers fleeing? After all, the Fed says it's different this time. Brief inversions don't count, such as, in 1998. Twice in the past 40 years an inversion of the yield curve has not been followed by a recession. Will this inversion be brief and not count or will it be protracted and still not count? Will the Fed continue to print money at an unsustainable rate in an effort to stimulate economic activity? Will the Fed buy long-term bonds in order to reduce already low mortgage rates and help boost house buying?
It's winter. It is suppose to get cold. Unfortunately, for those speculating on heating oil and natural gas prices, the last week has been a most unprofitable downdraft. Yesterday, January natural gas futures fell $1.261 to settle at $11.022 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the lowest closing price since the Sept. 13 settlement of $10.763, which was slightly above the level on the day Hurricane Katrina struck and took out significant Gulf of Mexico output.
Front-month natural gas futures reached an all-time intraday high of $15.78 in mid-December as cold weather and predictions of snowstorms raised fears about supplies.
The equity market is nearing an oversold condition and fright is building in the natural gas trading pits. The likelihood is for both markets to have a bounce-back rally.
During WWI the stock market closed for 4 1/2 months. In 1933 banks were closed. After 9/11, the equity market was closed for several days. Are there
cracks in our economic infrastructure that could cause closure again?
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications for the week ended December 23 decreased 6.8 percent to 554.1 from the previous week's 594.6. Volume was at its lowest level since the week ended May 24, 2002, when the index hit 516.9. Maybe consumers were just too busy buying gift cards.
The Talmud: "Never expose yourself unnecessarily to danger; a miracle may not save you...and if it does, it will be deducted from your share of luck or merit."
Tuesday, December 27, 2005
Choices
12/27/05 Choices
Life is all about making choices, and hopefully, the right choices; however, as human beings
we do make mistakes. It's important not to just learn from the mistakes and correct them.
It's more than that. Don't let the wrong choices eat up precious time. Correct the mistakes in a
timely manner. All of the aformentioned can be said of investing.
Since it's your life, make your own choices. Don't let the choices be made for you. The same can be said for investing. It's your money and it's your responsibility to be a protector of your capital. Don't play follow the leader. The leader will not call or email you to mention when he or she is leaving the game, so to speak.
There is no law that says you need to know all the answers. However, there are places to find many of the answers. You can start by being honest with yourself. Know your limitations. Don't be a fool and grandstand. No one will buy tickets for that performance.
There will be times that you need a breather. At times, everyone needs to rekindle energies and focus. That is also true of investing. Don't press. Don't keep your foot pressed down on the peddle 100% of the time. Even cars need recharging or refueling.
Life and investing can be really complicated-- if you make it that way. Simple doesn't mean dumb.
Life is all about making choices, and hopefully, the right choices; however, as human beings
we do make mistakes. It's important not to just learn from the mistakes and correct them.
It's more than that. Don't let the wrong choices eat up precious time. Correct the mistakes in a
timely manner. All of the aformentioned can be said of investing.
Since it's your life, make your own choices. Don't let the choices be made for you. The same can be said for investing. It's your money and it's your responsibility to be a protector of your capital. Don't play follow the leader. The leader will not call or email you to mention when he or she is leaving the game, so to speak.
There is no law that says you need to know all the answers. However, there are places to find many of the answers. You can start by being honest with yourself. Know your limitations. Don't be a fool and grandstand. No one will buy tickets for that performance.
There will be times that you need a breather. At times, everyone needs to rekindle energies and focus. That is also true of investing. Don't press. Don't keep your foot pressed down on the peddle 100% of the time. Even cars need recharging or refueling.
Life and investing can be really complicated-- if you make it that way. Simple doesn't mean dumb.
Monday, December 26, 2005
Quotations
12/26/05 Quotations
Plato: “Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws.”
Paramhansa Yogananda: “Divisions are imaginary lines drawn by small minds.”
Aristotle: “Friendship is a single soul living in two bodies.”
Carl Jung: “Your vision will become clear only when you look into your heart... Who looks outside, dreams. Who looks inside, awakens.”
Ayn Rand: “The smallest minority on earth is the individual. Those who deny individual rights, cannot claim to be defenders of minorities.”
Booker T. Washington: “Few things help an individual more than to place responsibility upon him, and to let him know that you trust him.”
Anais Nin: “From the backstabbing co-worker to the meddling sister-in-law,
you are in charge of how you react to the people and events in your life.
You can either give negativity power over your life or you can choose happiness instead.
Take control and choose to focus on what is important in your life.
Those who cannot live fully often become destroyers of life.”
Erma Bombeck: “If a man watches three football games in a row, he should be declared legally dead.”
P.J. O’Rourke: “One of the annoying things about believing in free will and individual responsibility is the difficulty of finding somebody to blame your problems on. And when you do find somebody, it's remarkable how often his picture turns up on your driver's license.”
Mark Victor Hansen: “Now is the only time there is. Make your now wow, your minutes miracles, and your days pay. Your life will have been magnificently lived and invested, and when you die you will have made a difference.”
Napoleon Bonaparte: “Courage is like love, it must have hope for nourishment.”
Mary Manin Morrissey: “Even though you may want to move forward in your life, you may have one foot on the brakes. In order to be free, we must learn how to let go. Release the hurt. Release the fear. Refuse to entertain your old pain. The energy it takes to hang onto the past is holding you back from a new life. What is it you would let go of today?”
Albert Einstein: “The world is a dangerous place, not because of those who do evil, but because of those who look on and do nothing.”
Ronald Reagan: “Freedom is a fragile thing and is never more than one generation away from extinction. It is not ours by inheritance; it must be fought for and defended constantly by each generation, for it comes only once to a people. Those who have known freedom, and then lost it, have never known it again.”
Thomas Jefferson: “Banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies.”
James Madison: “I believe there are more instances of the abridgement of freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments by those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations.”
Jack Paar: “Poor people have more fun than rich people, they say; and I notice it's the rich people who keep saying it.”
John Wayne: “If you've got them by the balls their hearts and minds will follow.”
Jack Benny: “I went to a meeting for premature ejaculators. I left early.”
Mike Burk: “Since 1886 (118 years) the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been up 73% of the time with an average gain of 1.07% during the last 4 trading days of the year.”
Groucho Marx: “Alimony is like buying hay for a dead horse.”
Bill Frist: “Sugar growers will not face any cuts in this important budget agreement, and
Sen. Coleman will support the package.”
James Pfaus, Concordia University psychology professor: “Getting an erection is one thing. Feeling horny is another.”
George Orwell: “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.”
Hitler: “Who says I am not under the special protection of God?”
Robin Lovin, a United Methodist ethicist and professor of religion and political thought at Southern Methodist University: “All sorts of warning signals ought to go off when a sense of personal chosenness and calling gets translated into a sense of calling and mission for a nation.” (Lovin was not referring to Hitler)
Ann Landers: “Resentment is letting someone you despise live rent-free in your head.”
Daniel Patrick Moynihan: “We are each entitled to our own opinion, but no one is entitled to his own facts.”
Plato: “Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws.”
Paramhansa Yogananda: “Divisions are imaginary lines drawn by small minds.”
Aristotle: “Friendship is a single soul living in two bodies.”
Carl Jung: “Your vision will become clear only when you look into your heart... Who looks outside, dreams. Who looks inside, awakens.”
Ayn Rand: “The smallest minority on earth is the individual. Those who deny individual rights, cannot claim to be defenders of minorities.”
Booker T. Washington: “Few things help an individual more than to place responsibility upon him, and to let him know that you trust him.”
Anais Nin: “From the backstabbing co-worker to the meddling sister-in-law,
you are in charge of how you react to the people and events in your life.
You can either give negativity power over your life or you can choose happiness instead.
Take control and choose to focus on what is important in your life.
Those who cannot live fully often become destroyers of life.”
Erma Bombeck: “If a man watches three football games in a row, he should be declared legally dead.”
P.J. O’Rourke: “One of the annoying things about believing in free will and individual responsibility is the difficulty of finding somebody to blame your problems on. And when you do find somebody, it's remarkable how often his picture turns up on your driver's license.”
Mark Victor Hansen: “Now is the only time there is. Make your now wow, your minutes miracles, and your days pay. Your life will have been magnificently lived and invested, and when you die you will have made a difference.”
Napoleon Bonaparte: “Courage is like love, it must have hope for nourishment.”
Mary Manin Morrissey: “Even though you may want to move forward in your life, you may have one foot on the brakes. In order to be free, we must learn how to let go. Release the hurt. Release the fear. Refuse to entertain your old pain. The energy it takes to hang onto the past is holding you back from a new life. What is it you would let go of today?”
Albert Einstein: “The world is a dangerous place, not because of those who do evil, but because of those who look on and do nothing.”
Ronald Reagan: “Freedom is a fragile thing and is never more than one generation away from extinction. It is not ours by inheritance; it must be fought for and defended constantly by each generation, for it comes only once to a people. Those who have known freedom, and then lost it, have never known it again.”
Thomas Jefferson: “Banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies.”
James Madison: “I believe there are more instances of the abridgement of freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments by those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations.”
Jack Paar: “Poor people have more fun than rich people, they say; and I notice it's the rich people who keep saying it.”
John Wayne: “If you've got them by the balls their hearts and minds will follow.”
Jack Benny: “I went to a meeting for premature ejaculators. I left early.”
Mike Burk: “Since 1886 (118 years) the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been up 73% of the time with an average gain of 1.07% during the last 4 trading days of the year.”
Groucho Marx: “Alimony is like buying hay for a dead horse.”
Bill Frist: “Sugar growers will not face any cuts in this important budget agreement, and
Sen. Coleman will support the package.”
James Pfaus, Concordia University psychology professor: “Getting an erection is one thing. Feeling horny is another.”
George Orwell: “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.”
Hitler: “Who says I am not under the special protection of God?”
Robin Lovin, a United Methodist ethicist and professor of religion and political thought at Southern Methodist University: “All sorts of warning signals ought to go off when a sense of personal chosenness and calling gets translated into a sense of calling and mission for a nation.” (Lovin was not referring to Hitler)
Ann Landers: “Resentment is letting someone you despise live rent-free in your head.”
Daniel Patrick Moynihan: “We are each entitled to our own opinion, but no one is entitled to his own facts.”
Sunday, December 25, 2005
Happy Holidays
12/25/05 Happy Holidays
As many as 55 percent of shoppers have bought gift cards, said Britt Beemer, chairman of Charleston, South Carolina-based America's Research Group. "Gift cards may be the big winner of this Christmas," he said. "I was in three stores last night where the line for gift cards was twice as long as the line to check out to buy something."
Hanukkah starts at sundown today. A Hanukkah that runs into January is rare. In 1967 and 1986, the eight-day festival of lights began at sundown on Dec. 26, and in 1978 it started on Christmas Eve.
Mohandes Gandhi: “Be the change you want to see in the world.”
According to comScore.com, the three-day transit strike in New York City may have forced residents there to purchase gifts over the Internet. The New York area generated 4.4 percent of all U.S. online spending in the first two days of the strike, up from 3.4 percent previously.
Aristotle: "The beauty of the soul shines out when a man bears with composure one heavy mischance after another, not because he does not feel them, but because he is a man of high and heroic temper."
Retailers may have lost as much as $230 million in the first two days of the strike, stated Kurt Salmon Associates Inc. retail strategist Michelle Bogan. Particularly hard hit would be Tiffany’s, Bloomingdale’s, and Saks.
Yesterday, Wal-Mart stated demand for groceries outpaced sales of general merchandise last week.
"I don't think the day is the kind of day that retailers thought it would be," said Britt Beemer, head of America's Research Group, which surveys consumer spending habits. "Christmas Eve is seldom the big day because of the fact that so many consumers ... want to be home." When the results for the holidays are tallied, I think we’ll find that Friday, December 23, was a gigantic shopping day and possibly the largest of the season.
Yesterday President Bush gave his Saturday radio address. He wished the nation a happy Christmas. He forgot that Hanukkah begins at sundown on Christmas and that Kwanzaa, a seven-day African-American holiday created in 1966, begins Monday.
According to BigResearch, which conducted a poll for the National Retail Federation, consumers are expected to spend a total of $18.48 billion on gift cards this holiday season, up 6.6% from a year ago. I believe that figure will prove conservative.
According to the San Francisco Chronicle, the 11-judge court that authorizes FISA wiretaps has approved at least 18,740 applications for electronic surveillance or physical searches from five presidential administrations since 1979.
The judges modified only two search warrant orders out of the 13,102 applications that were approved over the first 22 years of the court's operation. In 20 of the first 21 annual reports on the court's activities up to 1999, the Justice Department told Congress that "no orders were entered (by the FISA court) which modified or denied the requested authority" submitted by the government.
But since 2001, the judges have modified 179 of the 5,645 requests for court-ordered surveillance by the Bush administration. A total of 173 of those court-ordered "substantive modifications" took place in 2003 and 2004, the most recent years for which public records are available. The judges also rejected or deferred at least six requests for warrants during those two years -- the first outright rejection of a wiretap request in the court's history.
Starbucks opened 354 drive-throughs in the U.S. during its latest fiscal year, increasing its nationwide total to 1,065 -- nearly 15 percent of its roughly 7,300 domestic stores. During the first year of operations, a typical company drive-through will generate sales of $1 million versus only $715,000 for a regular store. That comparison was a surprise to me.
Plato: "Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a harder battle."
As many as 55 percent of shoppers have bought gift cards, said Britt Beemer, chairman of Charleston, South Carolina-based America's Research Group. "Gift cards may be the big winner of this Christmas," he said. "I was in three stores last night where the line for gift cards was twice as long as the line to check out to buy something."
Hanukkah starts at sundown today. A Hanukkah that runs into January is rare. In 1967 and 1986, the eight-day festival of lights began at sundown on Dec. 26, and in 1978 it started on Christmas Eve.
Mohandes Gandhi: “Be the change you want to see in the world.”
According to comScore.com, the three-day transit strike in New York City may have forced residents there to purchase gifts over the Internet. The New York area generated 4.4 percent of all U.S. online spending in the first two days of the strike, up from 3.4 percent previously.
Aristotle: "The beauty of the soul shines out when a man bears with composure one heavy mischance after another, not because he does not feel them, but because he is a man of high and heroic temper."
Retailers may have lost as much as $230 million in the first two days of the strike, stated Kurt Salmon Associates Inc. retail strategist Michelle Bogan. Particularly hard hit would be Tiffany’s, Bloomingdale’s, and Saks.
Yesterday, Wal-Mart stated demand for groceries outpaced sales of general merchandise last week.
"I don't think the day is the kind of day that retailers thought it would be," said Britt Beemer, head of America's Research Group, which surveys consumer spending habits. "Christmas Eve is seldom the big day because of the fact that so many consumers ... want to be home." When the results for the holidays are tallied, I think we’ll find that Friday, December 23, was a gigantic shopping day and possibly the largest of the season.
Yesterday President Bush gave his Saturday radio address. He wished the nation a happy Christmas. He forgot that Hanukkah begins at sundown on Christmas and that Kwanzaa, a seven-day African-American holiday created in 1966, begins Monday.
According to BigResearch, which conducted a poll for the National Retail Federation, consumers are expected to spend a total of $18.48 billion on gift cards this holiday season, up 6.6% from a year ago. I believe that figure will prove conservative.
According to the San Francisco Chronicle, the 11-judge court that authorizes FISA wiretaps has approved at least 18,740 applications for electronic surveillance or physical searches from five presidential administrations since 1979.
The judges modified only two search warrant orders out of the 13,102 applications that were approved over the first 22 years of the court's operation. In 20 of the first 21 annual reports on the court's activities up to 1999, the Justice Department told Congress that "no orders were entered (by the FISA court) which modified or denied the requested authority" submitted by the government.
But since 2001, the judges have modified 179 of the 5,645 requests for court-ordered surveillance by the Bush administration. A total of 173 of those court-ordered "substantive modifications" took place in 2003 and 2004, the most recent years for which public records are available. The judges also rejected or deferred at least six requests for warrants during those two years -- the first outright rejection of a wiretap request in the court's history.
Starbucks opened 354 drive-throughs in the U.S. during its latest fiscal year, increasing its nationwide total to 1,065 -- nearly 15 percent of its roughly 7,300 domestic stores. During the first year of operations, a typical company drive-through will generate sales of $1 million versus only $715,000 for a regular store. That comparison was a surprise to me.
Plato: "Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a harder battle."
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