10/29/05 The Truth
Patrick Fitzgerald: "The truth is the engine of our judicial system."
The Special Prosecutor's investigation continues--- in the pursuit of the truth. It should be noted that, at the inception of the 22-month investigation, he did speak with Bush and Cheney. They were not under oath. I envision Mrs. Wilson filing a civil lawsuit against the Bush administration. (You remember the Paula Jones suit against Bill Clinton?) I am confident that both Bush and Cheney will be forced to testify under oath.
Andrew Jackson: "One person with courage makes a majority."
When an individual officially becomes president, he places his handle on the bible and takes the oath of office. That oath is a solemn one. It has deep meaning. We will discover whether that oath was demeaned and undermined. We will discover who is fit to serve and not serve the citizens of our country.
Dr. Karl Menninger: " One of the most untruthful things possible, you know, is a collection of facts, because they can be made to appear so many different ways."
The Commerce Dept's first reading on 3rd quarter GDP growth was a rate of 3.8%. What were the main engines for that growth--- July and August auto sales resulting from incentive packages, post-hurricane government spending, and consumers spending at a 3.9% annual rate. The latter will not continue as wages and salaries for all civilian workers grew by just 2.3%, the smallest amount in 25 years in the 12 months that ended in September. Adjusted for inflation, which is running at an annual rate of 4.7%, actual pay fell by 2.3%.
Lee Scott, Wal-Mart's CEO: "Our customers simply don't have the money to buy basic necessities between paychecks."
The U.S. has a shortage of drilling rigs.
China says its trade surplus may triple this year to $90 billion.
Pimco's Bill Gross: "We are due for what appears to be a 2% or less GDP growth rate in 2006, a rate sure to stop the Fed and to induce eventual ease at some point later in the year."
Will the AMT finally be eliminated in 2006?
According to the OMB, the mortgage interest deduction saves homeowners $76 billion a year.
According to the deal.com, "in an attempt to bolster their bids, the CVS Kroger buyout team are trying to attract strategic buyers for Albertson's to join their consortia."
Since 2001, rents in San Francisco have fallen 19%. Meanwhile, only 11% can afford to purchase a home or condo in that city. When it doesn't make sense, maybe it's time to reverse course.
Microsoft has $40 billion in cash and will spend $19 billion of that amount on a stock-buyback program by December 2006.
According to Women's Wear Daily, citing unnamed sources, Saks was again in acquisition talks with Bon-Ton Stores Inc. The two are said to be negotiating an agreement for Bon-Ton to buy Saks' Northern Department Store division, which includes moderate-priced retailers such as Carson Pirie Scott, Herberger's and Bergner's.
Talks fell apart last month after the two reportedly couldn't agree on a price. Saks wanted $1.5 billion and Bon-Ton was offering $1 billion, according to Women's Wear Daily.
Albert Einstein: " Truth is what stands the test of experience."
Saturday, October 29, 2005
Thursday, October 27, 2005
Out Of Favor
10/28/05 Out Of Favor
September durable goods orders declined 2.1%. Non-transportation orders dropped 1% for the month.
The total number of hurricane-related jobless claims amounts to 502,000.
September U.S. new home sales rose 2.1% but that is after August's 11.6% decline. Sales in Sept. were flat with one year ago. At the current monthly sales rate, inventories equate to a supply of 4.9 months, and that is the same as the level in August.
Since Bush became president in 2001, the SBA budget has been cut in half. The 2006 budget is $593 million, down from $1.1 billion in 2001. By comparison, the Pentagon budget is just under $400 million.
Shurgard is exploring strategic alternatives. Public Storage continues to pursue the company.
Pertaining to seeking strategic alternatives, this is an avenue that was previously announced by Saks Inc. In July, they sold Proffitt's and McRae's to Belk Stores for $622 million or roughly 90 cents on the sales dollar. In May 2005 Carlos Slim added to his 10% + ownership in Saks at the $16+ level. After rising to $24 during the summer, the stock has dropped back to $15.80, and yesterday was the first time since March 2005 that the stock had closed below $16. It is clearly out of favor. The company has essentially three separate groupings:
1) Parisian, Younkers, Carson Pirie Scott, Herberger's, Bergner's, Boston Store, Off 5th Ave.- this grouping has 143 stores 2) 48 Club Libby Lu stores and 3) Saks Fifth Ave. which operates 57 stores in 25 states with approximately 15,000 employees. In my opinion, numbers 1 and 2 will be sold. The value could approach $1.3 billion. It should be noted that the total company has debt of $763 million or 26% of the entire capitalization. There is $250 million in cash on the books and inventories amounting to about $1.28 billion. It should be noted that the average transaction at Saks Fifth Ave. is up 7%. The customer is buying more in the stores.
At $ 15.80, Saks is valued at $2.25 billion, and, in my view, does not reflect the enterprise value of the company. Net of debt, a value closer to $22.50 per share would, in my opinion, more clearly reflect a realistic assessment of the company's worth. Should Saks Fifth Ave. improve its operating margins and have better expense control, then the value could move to a higher level. That is certainly doable.
Figures from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development show that each U.S. household of four spends more than $600 a year because of tariffs that cause higher prices on farm goods and taxes that go to subsidies.
30-year mortgage rates hit 6.15%.
In yesterday's trading, within the Dow, there were 4 stocks down for every one higher.
Microsoft's quarterly sales rose 6%.
Will today be the day Fitzgerald announces indictments stemming from
obstruction of justice, perjury, and making false statements?
The Snowman and Helicopter Ben do not believe there is a housing bubble, and I do not believe our nation has inflation.
September durable goods orders declined 2.1%. Non-transportation orders dropped 1% for the month.
The total number of hurricane-related jobless claims amounts to 502,000.
September U.S. new home sales rose 2.1% but that is after August's 11.6% decline. Sales in Sept. were flat with one year ago. At the current monthly sales rate, inventories equate to a supply of 4.9 months, and that is the same as the level in August.
Since Bush became president in 2001, the SBA budget has been cut in half. The 2006 budget is $593 million, down from $1.1 billion in 2001. By comparison, the Pentagon budget is just under $400 million.
Shurgard is exploring strategic alternatives. Public Storage continues to pursue the company.
Pertaining to seeking strategic alternatives, this is an avenue that was previously announced by Saks Inc. In July, they sold Proffitt's and McRae's to Belk Stores for $622 million or roughly 90 cents on the sales dollar. In May 2005 Carlos Slim added to his 10% + ownership in Saks at the $16+ level. After rising to $24 during the summer, the stock has dropped back to $15.80, and yesterday was the first time since March 2005 that the stock had closed below $16. It is clearly out of favor. The company has essentially three separate groupings:
1) Parisian, Younkers, Carson Pirie Scott, Herberger's, Bergner's, Boston Store, Off 5th Ave.- this grouping has 143 stores 2) 48 Club Libby Lu stores and 3) Saks Fifth Ave. which operates 57 stores in 25 states with approximately 15,000 employees. In my opinion, numbers 1 and 2 will be sold. The value could approach $1.3 billion. It should be noted that the total company has debt of $763 million or 26% of the entire capitalization. There is $250 million in cash on the books and inventories amounting to about $1.28 billion. It should be noted that the average transaction at Saks Fifth Ave. is up 7%. The customer is buying more in the stores.
At $ 15.80, Saks is valued at $2.25 billion, and, in my view, does not reflect the enterprise value of the company. Net of debt, a value closer to $22.50 per share would, in my opinion, more clearly reflect a realistic assessment of the company's worth. Should Saks Fifth Ave. improve its operating margins and have better expense control, then the value could move to a higher level. That is certainly doable.
Figures from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development show that each U.S. household of four spends more than $600 a year because of tariffs that cause higher prices on farm goods and taxes that go to subsidies.
30-year mortgage rates hit 6.15%.
In yesterday's trading, within the Dow, there were 4 stocks down for every one higher.
Microsoft's quarterly sales rose 6%.
Will today be the day Fitzgerald announces indictments stemming from
obstruction of justice, perjury, and making false statements?
The Snowman and Helicopter Ben do not believe there is a housing bubble, and I do not believe our nation has inflation.
Facts
10/27/05 Facts
PetroKazakhstan Inc. announced today that the acquisition of the Company for US$55.00 cash per share by CNPCInternational Ltd. ("CNPC") pursuant to a Court-approved Plan of Arrangement has closed. Shareholders will receive payment for their shares from Computershare Trust Company of Canada within the next few days.
Yesterday was my 1400th post using blogger software. Over the years the software has provided enormous benefits and almost no difficulties. The transition to ownership by Google has been seemless and improvements have continued.
According to a U.S. Minerals Management Service report Wednesday, 68 percent of daily oil production and 56 percent of daily gas production in the Gulf of Mexico remained shut-in. Much of the recent build up in crude inventories is due to the refining damage caused by Katrina and Rita.
As of Oct. 15, according to the Pentagon, 15,220 members of the U.S. military had been wounded in action since the Iraqi operation began in March 2003 -- 542 during the war that ousted Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and 14,678 since U.S. troops began battling the insurgency. Nearly half of those wounded were injured severely enough that they could not return to duty within 72 hours.
As of Oct. 15, according to the Pentagon, 15,220 members of the U.S. military had been wounded in action since the Iraqi operation began in March 2003 -- 542 during the war that ousted Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and 14,678 since U.S. troops began battling the insurgency. Nearly half of those wounded were injured severely enough that they could not return to duty within 72 hours.
At San Francisco's SBC Park at 7:30 yesterday morning,
about 150 people -- out of 4,300 applicants -- showed up for a lottery for 20 new condos. Luxury condos that normally fetch $500,000 to $1.3 million were being offered at $85,000 to $233,000.
According to the American Express 2006 Global Business Travel Forecast,
for U.S. business fliers, airlines' reduced schedules and high fuel costs will push airfares up 5 percent to 8 percent on domestic economy-class flights, and up 2 percent to 6 percent on international business-class flights.
Rising demand and a limited number of new hotel rooms will drive higher-end hotel rates up 2 percent to 5 percent and midrange hotel rates up to 3 percent higher in the United States.
Car-rental companies are likely to charge as much as 7 percent to 8 percent more as they face steeper costs related to maintaining their fleets, Matthew Davis, London-based director of global consulting at American Express, stated.
Pulte Homes CEO Richard J. Dugas said that the company expects full-year earnings of $5.35 to $5.45 a share, based on the year-to-date performance.
Previously, the company expected 2005 earnings of $5 to $5.25 a share, adjusted for a stock split. Pulte said its board approved a $100-million increase in the company's share buyback authorization, bringing the total to $120 million.
10-year Treasury bond yields rose yesterday to 4.59%, a 7-month high, and 2-year yields hit 4.36%, the highest point since Feb. 2001.
Bunge revised higher its 2005 profit outlook and now sees net income of $3.97 to $4.13 a share, assuming stable currencies in South America and Europe.
On Oct. 27, 1997, the Dow plummeted 554 points or 7%.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price averaged $1.704 per pound in the 2005 third quarter, compared with $1.293 in the corresponding 2004 period and $1.537 in the 2005 second quarter.
Problems with physician access and abundant sales force coordination have led pharmaceutical companies to plan and prepare for potential sales force reductions, notes a study from pharmaceutical research firm Cutting Edge Information. Increasing challenges in the US pharmaceutical market are affecting themore than 90,000 drug reps that call on doctors. As physician access difficulties increase, pharmaceutical executives consider reducing their salesforce numbers to achieve the same results with fewer reps.
George Bernard Shaw: "If you can't get rid of the skeleton in your closet, you'd best teach it to dance."
PetroKazakhstan Inc. announced today that the acquisition of the Company for US$55.00 cash per share by CNPCInternational Ltd. ("CNPC") pursuant to a Court-approved Plan of Arrangement has closed. Shareholders will receive payment for their shares from Computershare Trust Company of Canada within the next few days.
Yesterday was my 1400th post using blogger software. Over the years the software has provided enormous benefits and almost no difficulties. The transition to ownership by Google has been seemless and improvements have continued.
According to a U.S. Minerals Management Service report Wednesday, 68 percent of daily oil production and 56 percent of daily gas production in the Gulf of Mexico remained shut-in. Much of the recent build up in crude inventories is due to the refining damage caused by Katrina and Rita.
As of Oct. 15, according to the Pentagon, 15,220 members of the U.S. military had been wounded in action since the Iraqi operation began in March 2003 -- 542 during the war that ousted Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and 14,678 since U.S. troops began battling the insurgency. Nearly half of those wounded were injured severely enough that they could not return to duty within 72 hours.
As of Oct. 15, according to the Pentagon, 15,220 members of the U.S. military had been wounded in action since the Iraqi operation began in March 2003 -- 542 during the war that ousted Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and 14,678 since U.S. troops began battling the insurgency. Nearly half of those wounded were injured severely enough that they could not return to duty within 72 hours.
At San Francisco's SBC Park at 7:30 yesterday morning,
about 150 people -- out of 4,300 applicants -- showed up for a lottery for 20 new condos. Luxury condos that normally fetch $500,000 to $1.3 million were being offered at $85,000 to $233,000.
According to the American Express 2006 Global Business Travel Forecast,
for U.S. business fliers, airlines' reduced schedules and high fuel costs will push airfares up 5 percent to 8 percent on domestic economy-class flights, and up 2 percent to 6 percent on international business-class flights.
Rising demand and a limited number of new hotel rooms will drive higher-end hotel rates up 2 percent to 5 percent and midrange hotel rates up to 3 percent higher in the United States.
Car-rental companies are likely to charge as much as 7 percent to 8 percent more as they face steeper costs related to maintaining their fleets, Matthew Davis, London-based director of global consulting at American Express, stated.
Pulte Homes CEO Richard J. Dugas said that the company expects full-year earnings of $5.35 to $5.45 a share, based on the year-to-date performance.
Previously, the company expected 2005 earnings of $5 to $5.25 a share, adjusted for a stock split. Pulte said its board approved a $100-million increase in the company's share buyback authorization, bringing the total to $120 million.
10-year Treasury bond yields rose yesterday to 4.59%, a 7-month high, and 2-year yields hit 4.36%, the highest point since Feb. 2001.
Bunge revised higher its 2005 profit outlook and now sees net income of $3.97 to $4.13 a share, assuming stable currencies in South America and Europe.
On Oct. 27, 1997, the Dow plummeted 554 points or 7%.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price averaged $1.704 per pound in the 2005 third quarter, compared with $1.293 in the corresponding 2004 period and $1.537 in the 2005 second quarter.
Problems with physician access and abundant sales force coordination have led pharmaceutical companies to plan and prepare for potential sales force reductions, notes a study from pharmaceutical research firm Cutting Edge Information. Increasing challenges in the US pharmaceutical market are affecting themore than 90,000 drug reps that call on doctors. As physician access difficulties increase, pharmaceutical executives consider reducing their salesforce numbers to achieve the same results with fewer reps.
George Bernard Shaw: "If you can't get rid of the skeleton in your closet, you'd best teach it to dance."
Wednesday, October 26, 2005
Trends
10/26/05 Trends
The median price of a home in the California Realtors' Santa Clara region was up 16.3 percent to $733,000, compared to September 2004. Sales were down 9.1 percent.
The median price rose at the same rate in Santa Cruz county to $750,000, while sales dropped 15.2 percent.
In the Monterey region, the median price shot up 13.4 percent to $712,800 as sales dropped 4.8 percent.
In the Bay Area, the price was up 10.5 percent as sales fell 8.5 percent.
Statewide, the median price hit $544,000 in September, up 17 percent from a year ago. Sales increased across the state almost 4 percent compared to the same month a year ago.
Sales in the state totaled 650,800 in September 2005 compared to 626,000 recorded in September 2004.
"The September median home price compared with August has fallen every year since 1993, in 20 of the last 26 years," said Jim Hamilton, president of the association, in a statement. "This year is no exception and is part of the seasonal shift to an off-peak period in the real estate market as we approach year's end."
PetroKazakhstan Inc. announced today that the Alberta Court of Queen's Bench has granted the order approving the Arrangement involving the acquisition of the Company for US$55.00 cash per share by a wholly-owned subsidiary of CNPC International Ltd. This was a situation with several twists and turns but, had you done the necessary homework, you would have realized
almost all was simply a great deal of meaningless noise. Just as China learned from the Unocal episode, I trust India will learn from PKZ.
President Bush's negative rating now stands at 66 percent for his handling ofevents there, the lowest of his presidency. For the first time, a majority(53%) of adults feel that military action in Iraq was the wrong thing to do. These are some of the results of a Harris Interactive(R) poll of 1,833U.S. adults surveyed online between October 11 and 17, 2005 just before theIraqis voted to ratify their new constitution. Other interesting findings from the poll include: -- President Bush's ratings on Iraq are now 66 percent negative, 32 percent positive, slightly worse than his ratings in September (65% negative, 34% positive) and July (64% negative, 34% positive). -- A 61 to 24 percent majority is not confident that U.S. policies in Iraq will be successful, again slightly lower than the numbers in September (59% and 23%, respectively).-- A 53 to 34 percent majority believes that taking military action against Iraq was the wrong thing to do. This is the first time that a majority feels this and is a complete reversal from two years ago when a 55 to 32 percent majority believed that taking military action was the right thing to do.-- Only 19 percent of all adults feel that the situation for U.S. troops in Iraq is getting better, while 44 percent think it is getting worse; 33 percent see no change and four percent are not sure. These numbers are unchanged from September. -- Equal percentages feel that things in Iraq are moving in the right direction (38%) and that things are moving in the wrong direction (38%), but fully 24 percent are not sure.
Donald Rumsfeld: "Death has a tendency to encourage a depressing view of war."
With net income of $1.19 billion, Lucent posted the second consecutive profitable year and posted annual revenues of $9.44 billion, up 4 percent year over year. They reported revenues of $2.43 billion, net income of $374 million, or 8 cents per diluted share, for the quarter.
Marie Beyle: "The shepherd always tries to persuade the sheep that their interests and his own are the same."
EnCana's third quarter cash flow was $1.93 billion or $2.20 per share, up 51%.
Ben Bernanke: "The U.S. Government has a technology, called a printing press...The Fed could even implement what is essentially the classic textbook policy of dropping freshly printed money from a helicopter."
The Conference Board's October Consumer Confidence Index fell to 85 from September's 87.5. The Present Situation index declined to 108.2 from 110.4, and the Expectations index dropped to 69.5 from 72.3. Lynn Franco, Director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center, stated "in order to avoid a blue Christmas, retailers will need to lure shoppers with sales and discounts."
Wal-Mart has a major ad campaign beginning Nov. 1.
Teddy Roosevelt: "Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official."
Texas Instruments and DuPont gave disappointing 4th quarter outlooks.
Crude is holding above $62 a barrel. Natural gas had a record close yesterday
of 14.338 and heating oil rose 5.7%. January orange juice ftures closed at a 7-year high. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 4.51% and the 2-year to 4.30%.
September existing home sales were unchanged from the prior month.
Not surprisingly, IBM authorized another stock buyback-- this time $4 billion.
The Grand Jury meets today in the Plame matter. The fact is there is a great deal more involved than simply Plame. I continue to believe indictments will be forthcoming. However, what follows is connecting the dots. The picture that unfolds in coming months will, in my opinion, not be pretty. One should ask the following: there are three years remaining in Bush's term. How many in this Administration will go the distance? I believe the number will be tiny.
What's good for the goose is good for the gander. Sometimes it is wise to reflect on the past and how it might impact the future. Let's take a recent statement by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas: "I certainly hope that if there is going to be an indictment that says something happened, that it is an indictment on a crime and not some perjury technicality where they couldn’t indict on the crime so they go to something just to show that their two years of investigation were not a waste of time and dollars." Based on this "technicality" she voted to impeach Bill Clinton.
It is wise to learn from all the articles on PetroKazakhstan. Many were designed to discourage a bidding war and to hold down the price of the acquisition. Many of the recent articles in the WSJ on Albertsons have, in my view, a rancid smell and remind me a good dela of PKZ. That'swhy I state over and over again that it is wise not to trade based on media reports. The media has its own agenda, and that may not serve investors well.
Kroger has 2,525 store and Albertsons has 2,487. Again, I suggest you pay a good deal of attention to the value embedded in the 750 free-standing pharmacies owned and operated by Albertsons. You might want to re-visit the sale of Eckard's by JC Penney. I have previously made note of this.
Ronald Reagan: "We must reject the idea that every time a law's broken, society is guilty rather than the lawbreaker. It is time to restore the American precept that each individual is accountable for his actions."
The median price of a home in the California Realtors' Santa Clara region was up 16.3 percent to $733,000, compared to September 2004. Sales were down 9.1 percent.
The median price rose at the same rate in Santa Cruz county to $750,000, while sales dropped 15.2 percent.
In the Monterey region, the median price shot up 13.4 percent to $712,800 as sales dropped 4.8 percent.
In the Bay Area, the price was up 10.5 percent as sales fell 8.5 percent.
Statewide, the median price hit $544,000 in September, up 17 percent from a year ago. Sales increased across the state almost 4 percent compared to the same month a year ago.
Sales in the state totaled 650,800 in September 2005 compared to 626,000 recorded in September 2004.
"The September median home price compared with August has fallen every year since 1993, in 20 of the last 26 years," said Jim Hamilton, president of the association, in a statement. "This year is no exception and is part of the seasonal shift to an off-peak period in the real estate market as we approach year's end."
PetroKazakhstan Inc. announced today that the Alberta Court of Queen's Bench has granted the order approving the Arrangement involving the acquisition of the Company for US$55.00 cash per share by a wholly-owned subsidiary of CNPC International Ltd. This was a situation with several twists and turns but, had you done the necessary homework, you would have realized
almost all was simply a great deal of meaningless noise. Just as China learned from the Unocal episode, I trust India will learn from PKZ.
President Bush's negative rating now stands at 66 percent for his handling ofevents there, the lowest of his presidency. For the first time, a majority(53%) of adults feel that military action in Iraq was the wrong thing to do. These are some of the results of a Harris Interactive(R) poll of 1,833U.S. adults surveyed online between October 11 and 17, 2005 just before theIraqis voted to ratify their new constitution. Other interesting findings from the poll include: -- President Bush's ratings on Iraq are now 66 percent negative, 32 percent positive, slightly worse than his ratings in September (65% negative, 34% positive) and July (64% negative, 34% positive). -- A 61 to 24 percent majority is not confident that U.S. policies in Iraq will be successful, again slightly lower than the numbers in September (59% and 23%, respectively).-- A 53 to 34 percent majority believes that taking military action against Iraq was the wrong thing to do. This is the first time that a majority feels this and is a complete reversal from two years ago when a 55 to 32 percent majority believed that taking military action was the right thing to do.-- Only 19 percent of all adults feel that the situation for U.S. troops in Iraq is getting better, while 44 percent think it is getting worse; 33 percent see no change and four percent are not sure. These numbers are unchanged from September. -- Equal percentages feel that things in Iraq are moving in the right direction (38%) and that things are moving in the wrong direction (38%), but fully 24 percent are not sure.
Donald Rumsfeld: "Death has a tendency to encourage a depressing view of war."
With net income of $1.19 billion, Lucent posted the second consecutive profitable year and posted annual revenues of $9.44 billion, up 4 percent year over year. They reported revenues of $2.43 billion, net income of $374 million, or 8 cents per diluted share, for the quarter.
Marie Beyle: "The shepherd always tries to persuade the sheep that their interests and his own are the same."
EnCana's third quarter cash flow was $1.93 billion or $2.20 per share, up 51%.
Ben Bernanke: "The U.S. Government has a technology, called a printing press...The Fed could even implement what is essentially the classic textbook policy of dropping freshly printed money from a helicopter."
The Conference Board's October Consumer Confidence Index fell to 85 from September's 87.5. The Present Situation index declined to 108.2 from 110.4, and the Expectations index dropped to 69.5 from 72.3. Lynn Franco, Director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center, stated "in order to avoid a blue Christmas, retailers will need to lure shoppers with sales and discounts."
Wal-Mart has a major ad campaign beginning Nov. 1.
Teddy Roosevelt: "Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official."
Texas Instruments and DuPont gave disappointing 4th quarter outlooks.
Crude is holding above $62 a barrel. Natural gas had a record close yesterday
of 14.338 and heating oil rose 5.7%. January orange juice ftures closed at a 7-year high. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 4.51% and the 2-year to 4.30%.
September existing home sales were unchanged from the prior month.
Not surprisingly, IBM authorized another stock buyback-- this time $4 billion.
The Grand Jury meets today in the Plame matter. The fact is there is a great deal more involved than simply Plame. I continue to believe indictments will be forthcoming. However, what follows is connecting the dots. The picture that unfolds in coming months will, in my opinion, not be pretty. One should ask the following: there are three years remaining in Bush's term. How many in this Administration will go the distance? I believe the number will be tiny.
What's good for the goose is good for the gander. Sometimes it is wise to reflect on the past and how it might impact the future. Let's take a recent statement by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas: "I certainly hope that if there is going to be an indictment that says something happened, that it is an indictment on a crime and not some perjury technicality where they couldn’t indict on the crime so they go to something just to show that their two years of investigation were not a waste of time and dollars." Based on this "technicality" she voted to impeach Bill Clinton.
It is wise to learn from all the articles on PetroKazakhstan. Many were designed to discourage a bidding war and to hold down the price of the acquisition. Many of the recent articles in the WSJ on Albertsons have, in my view, a rancid smell and remind me a good dela of PKZ. That'swhy I state over and over again that it is wise not to trade based on media reports. The media has its own agenda, and that may not serve investors well.
Kroger has 2,525 store and Albertsons has 2,487. Again, I suggest you pay a good deal of attention to the value embedded in the 750 free-standing pharmacies owned and operated by Albertsons. You might want to re-visit the sale of Eckard's by JC Penney. I have previously made note of this.
Ronald Reagan: "We must reject the idea that every time a law's broken, society is guilty rather than the lawbreaker. It is time to restore the American precept that each individual is accountable for his actions."
Tuesday, October 25, 2005
Looking Out
10/25/05 Looking Out
U.S. consumers could have
saved $20 billion in 2004 and even more during this and future years by using
more generic drugs, according to a new report by Express Scripts, Inc.
Projectable to the U.S. commercially insured population, the study examined
six major drug-therapy classes and was based on a random sample of
approximately 3 million individuals.
Wal-Mart stated the company will open 555 to 600 stores in fiscal year 2006. This
represents more than 600 million square feet of gross retail space, an 8% increase over
presentlevels.
Gary Lammert, The Economic Fractalist: "The total cumulative value of the rest
of the world equities roughly equals the value of the Wilshire 5000...
In the 1929 primary devolution, the DJIA first fractal decay base of
11 days was determined by a preceding rising base sequence of 4 plus
days. The 1929 high was contained in the second decay fractal of 27
days, which was then followed by an additional third decay fractal of
27 days in the three fractal decay pattern of x/2.5x/2.5x: 11/27/27
days. For the primary 2005 devolution the first fractal decay base
appears to follow a 9 day plus rising antecedent base. Inductively
and extrapolating from the 1929 data, albeit with a single pattern for
extrapolation, a 23-24 day fractal sequence including the 3 August
high appears to be the defining first fractal base of what will likely
be an efficient nonlinear equity asset destructive devolution that
will echo the 1858-1932 Second Grand Fractal first sub fractal."
What happens when you lie to a grand jury? For what reason would Libby's grand jury testimony
differ from his notes with respect to who told him about Plame? Supposedly Cheney told him. Does
that surprise you?
"Helicopter Ben" is replacing Greenspan. Throwing money out of helicopters is a new method
in continuing the dollar's long-term descent.
Evan Esar: "An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.
"Crude dipped to $60.25 a barrel. Are we to get ecstatic about $2.60 gas at the pump? Is this a victory ofsome sorts? Maybe it's a new version of shock and awe.
Franchising China 2005 will feature 305 booths -- up by more than 10
percent from 2004. Attendance is expected to top last year's record of 20,300
visitors.
Franchising China is held in China's three largest franchising markets.
The events attract mainland China investors looking for franchise
opportunities in a range of sectors including food and beverage, furniture,
education, automotive and business services.
Franchising China is an event of eMedia Asia Ltd, a joint venture between
Global Sources and CMP Media. Joint venture president, Mark Saunderson, said:
"By 2010, franchises are expected to account for 30 percent of China's total
retail sales.
"Growth is being driven by the new affluence of Chinese consumers --
average earnings of urban residents have risen 91 percent over the past five
years. The industry has also benefited from the China's Ministry of
Commerce's new legal guidelines for franchising and commerce in China."
The U.S. service personnel death toll in Iraq reached 2,000.
Niles Bohr: "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."
U.S. consumers could have
saved $20 billion in 2004 and even more during this and future years by using
more generic drugs, according to a new report by Express Scripts, Inc.
Projectable to the U.S. commercially insured population, the study examined
six major drug-therapy classes and was based on a random sample of
approximately 3 million individuals.
Wal-Mart stated the company will open 555 to 600 stores in fiscal year 2006. This
represents more than 600 million square feet of gross retail space, an 8% increase over
presentlevels.
Gary Lammert, The Economic Fractalist: "The total cumulative value of the rest
of the world equities roughly equals the value of the Wilshire 5000...
In the 1929 primary devolution, the DJIA first fractal decay base of
11 days was determined by a preceding rising base sequence of 4 plus
days. The 1929 high was contained in the second decay fractal of 27
days, which was then followed by an additional third decay fractal of
27 days in the three fractal decay pattern of x/2.5x/2.5x: 11/27/27
days. For the primary 2005 devolution the first fractal decay base
appears to follow a 9 day plus rising antecedent base. Inductively
and extrapolating from the 1929 data, albeit with a single pattern for
extrapolation, a 23-24 day fractal sequence including the 3 August
high appears to be the defining first fractal base of what will likely
be an efficient nonlinear equity asset destructive devolution that
will echo the 1858-1932 Second Grand Fractal first sub fractal."
What happens when you lie to a grand jury? For what reason would Libby's grand jury testimony
differ from his notes with respect to who told him about Plame? Supposedly Cheney told him. Does
that surprise you?
"Helicopter Ben" is replacing Greenspan. Throwing money out of helicopters is a new method
in continuing the dollar's long-term descent.
Evan Esar: "An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.
"Crude dipped to $60.25 a barrel. Are we to get ecstatic about $2.60 gas at the pump? Is this a victory ofsome sorts? Maybe it's a new version of shock and awe.
Franchising China 2005 will feature 305 booths -- up by more than 10
percent from 2004. Attendance is expected to top last year's record of 20,300
visitors.
Franchising China is held in China's three largest franchising markets.
The events attract mainland China investors looking for franchise
opportunities in a range of sectors including food and beverage, furniture,
education, automotive and business services.
Franchising China is an event of eMedia Asia Ltd, a joint venture between
Global Sources and CMP Media. Joint venture president, Mark Saunderson, said:
"By 2010, franchises are expected to account for 30 percent of China's total
retail sales.
"Growth is being driven by the new affluence of Chinese consumers --
average earnings of urban residents have risen 91 percent over the past five
years. The industry has also benefited from the China's Ministry of
Commerce's new legal guidelines for franchising and commerce in China."
The U.S. service personnel death toll in Iraq reached 2,000.
Niles Bohr: "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."
Sunday, October 23, 2005
Updates
10/24/05 Updates
The Oct. 31, 2005 issue of Newsweek: "Whatever news Fitzgerald makes this week, however, the case has shed light on how Cheney and his clique of advisers cleared the way to war, and how they obsessed over critics who got in the way. "The notion that they've become a gang has some merit," says a longtime colleague of Libby's. "A small group who only talk to each other...You pay a price for that."
The number of U.S. service members who have died in Iraq since we invaded that country is now at least 1,992. The number of troops wounded in Iraq stands at 15,220, according to the Pentagon. Of those, 7,159 were so seriously hurt that they have not returned to duty. In my view, too little is written about those service members injured in Iraq as well as the medical attention they have received. Over the past 2 ½ years I have written about the months of waiting to receive adequate treatment and quoted individuals at various hospitals and bases. In addition, I have written about the limited benefits these individuals receive, and that is after risking their lives in battle.
Google Inc.'s market value briefly surpassed $100 billion for the first time Friday.
This past week the outstanding U.S. national debt exceeded $8 trillion for the first time. It increases an average of $1.62 billion per day. In December 2003, the debt surpassed $7 trillion for the first time. The good news is that your share of the national debt is only a bit less than $27,000. The bad news is that, at the rate we’re spending, it won’t be long before your share approaches $30,000. Since no one complains at the voting booth, you have no reason to wine and gripe.
The Oct. 31, 2005 issue of Newsweek: "Whatever news Fitzgerald makes this week, however, the case has shed light on how Cheney and his clique of advisers cleared the way to war, and how they obsessed over critics who got in the way. "The notion that they've become a gang has some merit," says a longtime colleague of Libby's. "A small group who only talk to each other...You pay a price for that."
The number of U.S. service members who have died in Iraq since we invaded that country is now at least 1,992. The number of troops wounded in Iraq stands at 15,220, according to the Pentagon. Of those, 7,159 were so seriously hurt that they have not returned to duty. In my view, too little is written about those service members injured in Iraq as well as the medical attention they have received. Over the past 2 ½ years I have written about the months of waiting to receive adequate treatment and quoted individuals at various hospitals and bases. In addition, I have written about the limited benefits these individuals receive, and that is after risking their lives in battle.
Google Inc.'s market value briefly surpassed $100 billion for the first time Friday.
This past week the outstanding U.S. national debt exceeded $8 trillion for the first time. It increases an average of $1.62 billion per day. In December 2003, the debt surpassed $7 trillion for the first time. The good news is that your share of the national debt is only a bit less than $27,000. The bad news is that, at the rate we’re spending, it won’t be long before your share approaches $30,000. Since no one complains at the voting booth, you have no reason to wine and gripe.
The national average for self-serve, regular unleaded gasoline was $2.6587 a gallon on October 21, down about 25.3 cents per gallon from October 7, according to the nationwide Lundberg survey of about 6,000 gas stations. "This is the biggest drop in a two week period that we have ever seen in our many decades surveying the gasoline market,"survey editor Trilby Lundberg said.
Paul Kasriel: "For the first time since 1995, the real M2 money supply is contracting on a year-over-year basis. Contractions in real M2 typically lead to recessions. Indeed, the last recession occurred without real M2 contracting- its growth just slowed."
Lucy Benington: "Opportunities
Storm Clouds
10/23/05 Storm Clouds
Weather forecasting is a chancy business. Who is to really know when storm clouds will turn into major natural disasters? No one knows for certain what part mankind plays in the increased number of hurricanes and typhoons. One thing is for certain. We will know this week whether an individual or individuals played a role in criminal wrong doings. Patrick Fitzgerald’s 22-month investigation will end in a matter of days.
Patrick Fitzgerald: "When you're a pitcher, you throw the ball over the plate and if you think you threw a strike and the umpire says it's a ball, it doesn't matter how much you think it's a strike. You put your case on. You don't walk into court out of fear that when you do it, either a judge will disagree with some of what you say or a defense attorney will call you overzealous."
There are many Americans who have not followed this investigation. Clearly, Wall Street has not shown any fall out. It’s earnings season. The focus has been on Google, Caterpillar, Apple, IBM, and others. Maybe Wall Street should show a bit more interest. Rove and Libby are but a small step from Bush and Cheney. Remember Ehrlichman and Haldeman? Of course, it could be different this time. The pundits say it is always different this time.
Life is not always as it appears on the surface. Bahrain is a small Persian Gulf country roughly 3 ½ times the size of Washington, DC. It is strategically located and 60% of its exports consist of petroleum products. One year ago, Bahrain signed a Free Trade Agreement with the U.S. Bahrain is a hostile place for Americans. If a black flag is placed above a place of business, it signifies Americans should not enter. If a black flag is posted on a road, it means Americans should not drive on it. That doesn’t seem very free to me. You can only imagine how unwelcome we must be in Iraq. We did not invade Bahrain. At least 1,987 American service personnel will never return to our shores.
The term "fastwalker" does not refer to a power walker. It is a term that was invented by NORAD to describe and categorize objects that approach from space, enter our atmosphere, maneuver strangely about, and then leave the atmosphere again. In other words, they refer to UFOs. I often think politicians in Washington, DC are from outer space. Unfortunately, they don't leave the atmosphere. They leave devastation in their wake. They have much in common with opportunistic viruses.
Tom Barrack of Colony Capital: "I feel totally safe playing polo on a field full of pros. But when amateurs are all over the field, someone can get killed. They have more guts than brains. They charge after every ball and don't know when to hold back." In U.S. real estate "there's too much money chasing too few good deals, with too much debt and too few brains. That's why I'm getting out…They’ve driven prices to the point where the yields on high-quality properties are like the return on bonds, around 5% or 6%. That’s too low."
Anthony J. D'Angelo: "Wherever you go, no matter what the weather, always bring your own sunshine."
Weather forecasting is a chancy business. Who is to really know when storm clouds will turn into major natural disasters? No one knows for certain what part mankind plays in the increased number of hurricanes and typhoons. One thing is for certain. We will know this week whether an individual or individuals played a role in criminal wrong doings. Patrick Fitzgerald’s 22-month investigation will end in a matter of days.
Patrick Fitzgerald: "When you're a pitcher, you throw the ball over the plate and if you think you threw a strike and the umpire says it's a ball, it doesn't matter how much you think it's a strike. You put your case on. You don't walk into court out of fear that when you do it, either a judge will disagree with some of what you say or a defense attorney will call you overzealous."
There are many Americans who have not followed this investigation. Clearly, Wall Street has not shown any fall out. It’s earnings season. The focus has been on Google, Caterpillar, Apple, IBM, and others. Maybe Wall Street should show a bit more interest. Rove and Libby are but a small step from Bush and Cheney. Remember Ehrlichman and Haldeman? Of course, it could be different this time. The pundits say it is always different this time.
Life is not always as it appears on the surface. Bahrain is a small Persian Gulf country roughly 3 ½ times the size of Washington, DC. It is strategically located and 60% of its exports consist of petroleum products. One year ago, Bahrain signed a Free Trade Agreement with the U.S. Bahrain is a hostile place for Americans. If a black flag is placed above a place of business, it signifies Americans should not enter. If a black flag is posted on a road, it means Americans should not drive on it. That doesn’t seem very free to me. You can only imagine how unwelcome we must be in Iraq. We did not invade Bahrain. At least 1,987 American service personnel will never return to our shores.
The term "fastwalker" does not refer to a power walker. It is a term that was invented by NORAD to describe and categorize objects that approach from space, enter our atmosphere, maneuver strangely about, and then leave the atmosphere again. In other words, they refer to UFOs. I often think politicians in Washington, DC are from outer space. Unfortunately, they don't leave the atmosphere. They leave devastation in their wake. They have much in common with opportunistic viruses.
Tom Barrack of Colony Capital: "I feel totally safe playing polo on a field full of pros. But when amateurs are all over the field, someone can get killed. They have more guts than brains. They charge after every ball and don't know when to hold back." In U.S. real estate "there's too much money chasing too few good deals, with too much debt and too few brains. That's why I'm getting out…They’ve driven prices to the point where the yields on high-quality properties are like the return on bonds, around 5% or 6%. That’s too low."
Anthony J. D'Angelo: "Wherever you go, no matter what the weather, always bring your own sunshine."
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