Saturday, July 10, 2004

7/10/04 The Saga Of A Monopoly

In a July 8 letter to customers, Union Pacific writes "increased resources have been overshadowed by increases in volume- six months in a row- and have not proven to be sufficient to meet demand." In Houston, for example, Union Pacific is the only game in town. The lack of competition has enabled this company's less than adept management to increase shipping time to some customers from 10 to 18 days. As one customer remarked, "ultimately it makes us uncompetitive."

Thirty million customers visit the 8,000 Starbucksstores every week.

Storage Technology saw an unexpected drop in orders in the final two weeks of June. Meetings with CIOs in North America and Europe point to flat to limited growth in IT budgets.

According to Deloitte Research's Leading Index of Consumer Spending, consumer spending declined sharply in May as a result of declining real wages, waning tax cuts, and falling home prices. In addition, a boost in inflation from rising energy prices and hefty health benefit costs undermined consumer spending. Overall, the index fell to 5.3% in May from April's 5.84% and this sharp decline in the index points to adeceleration in consumer spending growth in the months ahead.

Wholesalers' inventories increased 1.2% in May but sales only rose 0.5%.

According to Ward's Automotive, U.S. auto production will decline 70% from one week ago. GM and Ford will produce no vehicles.

In yesterday's speech in Pennsylvania, Bush stated "my administration looked at intelligence, and we remembered the past of Saddam. We remembered he used weapons on his own people. And then we looked at further intelligence, and we saw a threat." Unfortunately, not one weapons inspector agreed with the "intelligence."

Friday, July 09, 2004

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Thursday, July 08, 2004

7/8/04 You Want More Volatility?

Be careful what you wish for. Same-store sales for Wal-Mart were up 2.2%; however, a closer peek is quite disturbing. Sales at the Wal-Mart division rose only 1.3%; Sam's Club was up 6.4%; and the International operations increased 14.4%. Weather can't be bad everywhere. Target was only up 2%. Sears, May, Kohl's, and Gap all had down same-store sales.

According to Ward's, the inventory of unsolf North American vehicles is 3.52 million or about 9% higher than one year ago. Had the announced factory closings for July been in the last week, there would not have been a decline in the unemployment roles.

Pfizer will offer discounts to uninsured families of u to 37% off retail prescription prices and will expand discounts for Medicare beneficiaries by charging them a flat fee of $15 per subscription. This will play a significant role in bringing down the yearly rise in health insurance premiums which have had three straight years of double-digit increases. With health care at 15% or more of the GDP, lowering of prescription prices should help to reduce the inflation rate.

Yahoo shares traded at a 52-week high of 36.50 on June 30. In after hours trading yesterday, the stock dropped to 27.72. Is that volatile enough for you? Profit once again doubled for the company. Investors were disappointed that sales did not exceed expectations. The CEO has done a great job at Yahoo. Management on Wall Street should be so good. Expectations lead to disappointment, and that is especially true in a gun-shy market. If you wait foer the other shoe to drop, you won't be disappointed. Alcoa missed their numbers, and there could be plenty of others to follow.

Australian employment in June fell for the second straight month and the unemployment rate rose to 5.6% from a 23-year low of 5.5%.

Wednesday, July 07, 2004

7/7/04 The Fun And Games Are Over

This is earnings season and that includes earning warnings. Yesterday, Veritas announced slowing business software license sales. Nothing serious. The stock only dropped 30% or so and clipped $4 billion in market value from the company's shares. In bull markets one does not see such a violent reaction. This morning PeopleSoft warned about their quarterly results. It's been one year since Oracle started their hostile tender for the company, and PeopleSoft's shares proceeded to rise over 50%. Guess what. Those shares have returned to the pre-tender levels. The lawyers made out brilliantly but the stockholders were left empty handed. What else is new? One more item to note was yesterday's warning by San Francisco-based Embarcadero Technologies. Smart investors paid much attention to that announcement.

Yesterday and today are good days for auto customers. Yesterday Ford increased incentives by $1,000 on some models and GM lowered lease payments by $1,500 on some models. Today GM will announce some more incentives on outright-purchase plans. Slowing sales have created bulging inventories at the dealer level. The deals will get better as the introduction of the new models get closer.

The June ISM non-manufacturing or services index fell to 59.9 from 65.2 in May, the largest monthly drop since October 2001. Should you be concerned? Services account for over 80% of our economy.

Challenger, Gray, and Christmas stated that corporate hirings fell to 38,377 workers, down 31% from May's 55,307. The Wall Street Journal mentioned today that hiring would be increasing. I don't see them adding workers to their staff.

According to Cutting Edge Information, fewer than 25% of all pharma companies conduct market research in pre-clinical development.

The International Council of Shopping Centers stated "the overall year over year sales remained somewhat subdued compared with earlier in June." They anticipate that June monthly sales will have risen about 3 to 31/2% compared to June 2003 and the May 2004 rise of 5.7%.

Over the past month I have mentioned that Microsoft is paying increased attention to cutting expenses. Today the company stated that recently "expenses have grown faster than revenues." In several newspapers there was reference to an internal company memo focusing on a cost reduction effort of $1 billion.
7/7/04 The Fun And Games Are Over

This is earnings season and that includes earning warnings. Yesterday, Veritas announced slowing business software license sales. Nothing serious. The stock only dropped 30% or so and clipped $4 billion in market value from the company's shares. In bull markets one does not see such a violent reaction. This morning PeopleSoft warned about their quarterly results. It's been one year since Oracle started their hostile tender for the company, and PeopleSoft's shares proceeded to rise over 50%. Guess what. Those shares have returned to the pre-tender levels. The lawyers made out brilliantly but the stockholders were left empty handed. What else is new? One more item to note was yesterday's warning by San Francisco-based Embarcadero Technologies. Smart investors paid much attention to that announcement.

Yesterday and today are good days for auto customers. Yesterday Ford increased incentives by $1,000 on some models and GM lowered lease payments by $1,500 on some models. Today GM will announce some more incentives on outright-purchase plans. Slowing sales have created bulging inventories at the dealer level. The deals will get better as the introduction of the new models get closer.

The June ISM non-manufacturing or services index fell to 59.9 from 65.2 in May, the largest monthly drop since October 2001. Should you be concerned? Services account for over 80% of our economy.

Challenger, Gray, and Christmas stated that corporate hirings fell to 38,377 workers, down 31% from May's 55,307. The Wall Street Journal mentioned today that hiring would be increasing. I don't see them adding workers to their staff.

According to Cutting Edge Information, fewer than 25% of all pharma companies conduct market research in pre-clinical development.

The International Council of Shopping Centers stated "the overall year over year sales remained somewhat subdued compared with earlier in June." They anticipate that June monthly sales will have risen about 3 to 31/2% compared to June 2003 and the May 2004 rise of 5.7%.

Over the past month I have mentioned that Microsoft is paying increased attention to cutting expenses. Today the company stated that recently "expenses have grown faster than revenues." In several newspapers there was reference to an internal company memo focusing on a cost reduction effort of $1 billion.
7/7/04 The Fun And Games Are Over

This is earnings season and that includes earning warnings. Yesterday, Veritas announced slowing business software license sales. Nothing serious. The stock only dropped 30% or so and clipped $4 billion in market value from the company's shares. In bull markets one does not see such a violent reaction. This morning PeopleSoft warned about their quarterly results. It's been one year since Oracle started their hostile tender for the company, and PeopleSoft's shares proceeded to rise over 50%. Guess what. Those shares have returned to the pre-tender levels. The lawyers made out brilliantly but the stockholders were left empty handed. What else is new? One more item to note was yesterday's warning by San Francisco-based Embarcadero Technologies. Smart investors paid much attention to that announcement.

Yesterday and today are good days for auto customers. Yesterday Ford increased incentives by $1,000 on some models and GM lowered lease payments by $1,500 on some models. Today GM will announce some more incentives on outright-purchase plans. Slowing sales have created bulging inventories at the dealer level. The deals will get better as the introduction of the new models get closer.

The June ISM non-manufacturing or services index fell to 59.9 from 65.2 in May, the largest monthly drop since October 2001. Should you be concerned? Services account for over 80% of our economy.

Challenger, Gray, and Christmas stated that corporate hirings fell to 38,377 workers, down 31% from May's 55,307. The Wall Street Journal mentioned today that hiring would be increasing. I don't see them adding workers to their staff.

According to Cutting Edge Information, fewer than 25% of all pharma companies conduct market research in pre-clinical development.

The International Council of Shopping Centers stated "the overall year over year sales remained somewhat subdued compared with earlier in June." They anticipate that June monthly sales will have risen about 3 to 31/2% compared to June 2003 and the May 2004 rise of 5.7%.

Over the past month I have mentioned that Microsoft is paying increased attention to cutting expenses. Today the company stated that recently "expenses have grown faster than revenues." In several newspapers there was reference to an internal company memo focusing on a cost reduction effort of $1 billion.

Tuesday, July 06, 2004

7/6/04 The Threat To Sustainability

To grasp this picture you don't need an MBA. It's simple. Too much inventory can lead to lower prices, lower employment, and an economic downturn. That's what's happening in our auto industry. Ford will expand its two-week summer shutdown at five North American assembly plants. GM states they will rely on incentives to boost sales and won't cut production. We'll see about that. Increased incentives have not done the trick for May and June. It should be noted that auto companies record a sale when a vehicle is shipped to the dealer. It can stand on the delaer's lot for months, but it is still recorded as a sale. No wonder GM does not want to cut production. Keep filling the dealer pipeline. Eventually, something has to give with the overloaded pipeline of unsold vehicles. It will mean plant shutdowns and lower prices and lower profits and more unemployment.

GM and Ford can't make a right decision. It reminds me of Bush. Dodge will build all of 100 diesel-electric 2005 Ram pickups. GM will build only 2,500 gasoline-electric hybrid versions of the 2005 Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups. Meanwhile, Toyota is considering building an additional U.S. plant to meet the demand for its hybrid vehicles.

Some analysts worry about stagflation. The latter looks good next to too much inventory and lower prices and lower employment. Wall Street will focus on second quarter earnings. Those results are for the history books. They won't be repeated any time soon.

Kerry picked Edwards. The latter will show Main Street what it's like to relate to the people. The haves and the have mores might be Bush's base; however, there are too many havenots in this country. The people realize that reduced working hours and lower wages after inflation and increased unemployment are not the answer to the American success story. Bush has proven to be the WMD.

Monday, July 05, 2004

7/5/04 Pursuit Of The Truth

I did not get lazy today. The software was down and I could not post. Consequently, being late in the afternoon, I will keep this short and to the point. On Friday Tom Ridge stated he would not raise the terror alert level this weekend. Yesterday he did just that, and by his own admission, there was no specific and/or credible reason to do so. If our country wants to believe in its leaders, then we need to hold members of the administration to a standard which pursues the truth and where they do not walk in the path of lies. That's it from the cheap seats.

7/5/04 The Pursuit Of The Truth

On Friday I watched Tom Ridge state that he would not raise the terror alert level over this weekend. Yesterday he raised the terror alert level. Why? There was no specific or particular threat. He just did it. If we don't rid our country of administration members who tell lies, how can we feel good about our leadership? How can other countries respect the U.S.? The choice is up to the electorate. At the bare minimum, American citizens should be told the truth.
7/5/04 The Pursuit Of The Truth

On Friday I watched Tom Ridge state that he would not raise the terror alert level over this weekend. Yesterday he raised the terror alert level. Why? There was no specific or particular threat. He just did it. If we don't rid our country of administration members who tell lies, how can we feel good about our leadership? How can other countries respect the U.S.? The choice is up to the electorate. At the bare minimum, American citizens should be told the truth.
7/5/04 The Pursuit Of The Truth

On Friday I watched Tom Ridge state that he would not raise the terror alert level over this weekend. Yesterday he raised the terror alert level. Why? There was no specific or particular threat. He just did it. If we don't rid our country of administration members who tell lies, how can we feel good about our leadership? How can other countries respect the U.S.? The choice is up to the electorate. At the bare minimum, American citizens should be told the truth.
7/5/04 The Pursuit Of The Truth

On Friday I watched Tom Ridge state that he would not raise the terror alert level over this weekend. Yesterday he raised the terror alert level. Why? There was no specific or particular threat. He just did it. If we don't rid our country of administration members who tell lies, how can we feel good about our leadership? How can other countries respect the U.S.? The choice is up to the electorate. At the bare minimum, American citizens should be told the truth.
7/5/04 The Pursuit Of The Truth

On Friday I watched Tom Ridge state that he would not raise the terror alert level over this weekend. Yesterday he raised the terror alert level. Why? There was no specific or particular threat. He just did it. If we don't rid our country of administration members who tell lies, how can we feel good about our leadership? How can other countries respect the U.S.? The choice is up to the electorate. At the bare minimum, American citizens should be told the truth.
7/5/04 The Pursuit Of The Truth

On Friday I watched Tom Ridge state that he would not raise the terror alert level over this weekend. Yesterday he raised the terror alert level. Why? There was no specific or particular threat. He just did it. If we don't rid our country of administration members who tell lies, how can we feel good about our leadership? How can other countries respect the U.S.? The choice is up to the electorate. At the bare minimum, American citizens should be told the truth.
7/5/04 The Pursuit Of The Truth

On Friday I watched Tom Ridge state that he would not raise the terror alert level over this weekend. Yesterday he raised the terror alert level. Why? There was no specific or particular threat. He just did it. If we don't rid our country of administration members who tell lies, how can we feel good about our leadership? How can other countries respect the U.S.? The choice is up to the electorate. At the bare minimum, American citizens should be told the truth.
7/5/04 The Pursuit Of The Truth

On Friday I watched Tom Ridge state that he would not raise the terror alert level over this weekend. Yesterday he raised the terror alert level. Why? There was no specific or particular threat. He just did it. If we don't rid our country of administration members who tell lies, how can we feel good about our leadership? How can other countries respect the U.S.? The choice is up to the electorate. At the bare minimum, American citizens should be told the truth.
7/5/04 The Pursuit Of The Truth

On Friday I watched Tom Ridge state that he would not raise the terror alert level over this weekend. Yesterday he raised the terror alert level. Why? There was no specific or particular threat. He just did it. If we don't rid our country of administration members who tell lies, how can we feel good about our leadership? How can other countries respect the U.S.? The choice is up to the electorate. At the bare minimum, American citizens should be told the truth.
7/5/04 The Pursuit Of The Truth

On Friday I watched Tom Ridge state that he would not raise the terror alert level over this weekend. Yesterday he raised the terror alert level. Why? There was no specific or particular threat. He just did it. If we don't rid our country of administration members who tell lies, how can we feel good about our leadership? How can other countries respect the U.S.? The choice is up to the electorate. At the bare minimum, American citizens should be told the truth.
7/5/04 The Pursuit Of The Truth

On Friday I watched Tom Ridge state that he would not raise the terror alert level over this weekend. Yesterday he raised the terror alert level. Why? There was no specific or particular threat. He just did it. If we don't rid our country of administration members who tell lies, how can we feel good about our leadership? How can other countries respect the U.S.? The choice is up to the electorate. At the bare minimum, American citizens should be told the truth.
7/5/04 The Pursuit Of The Truth

On Friday I watched Tom Ridge state that he would not raise the terror alert level over this weekend. Yesterday he raised the terror alert level. Why? There was no specific or particular threat. He just did it. If we don't rid our country of administration members who tell lies, how can we feel good about our leadership? How can other countries respect the U.S.? The choice is up to the electorate. At the bare minimum, American citizens should be told the truth.

Sunday, July 04, 2004

7/4/04 Liberty

Mark Twain: “Irreverence is the champion of liberty and its only sure defense.”

Gunter Grass: “The job of a citizen is to keep his mouth open.”

According to Expedia.com, one in 10 Americans say vacations might be frowned upon by bosses. The World Tourism Organization statistics indicate that American workers take an average of 13 days off a year. This represents the fewest vacation days in the industrialized world. The Japanese take 25 days and the French 37 days. According to a survey by the Des Moines Register, 43% of the respondents stated they screwed up their vacation by not taking enough time. If the average workweek has been shortened, why aren’t Americans taking more vacation time? Could it also be a cash flow problem in addition to worrying about job security?

As we start the second half of the year, one might give additional consideration to new orders falling for six months in a row in the ISM survey. I am aware that the majority of our economy hinges on services; however, manufacturing does count.

This week marks the beginning of earnings releases for the second quarter. In most cases they will show smart gains. That is important. At the same time one might ask how confident the CEOs and CFOs are confident of this strength continuing in the short and long run. There are exceptions. Starbucks has been having double-digit monthly sales growth numbers for the past six to eight months. Their stock made a new all-time high on Friday. Starbucks is one of the few great companies in the U.S. Their management is top-notch. I don’t believe anyone can name without reservations another ten companies like Starbucks for the long-term. In other words, one should be cautious in an investment approach. To be over-confident and fully invested shall prove, in my view, to be an expensive mistake.

Infosys Technologies was founded in Bangalore in 1981. The company has 25,600 employees with annual revenues exceeding $1 billion. In an interview with the San Francisco Chronicle, the company’s president, CEO, and a founder Nandan Nilekani stated the following: “In 1991, the total revenue in the Indian economy from software exports was $50 million. Now it’s about $1 billion, and the whole industry is about $12 billion in revenue…India has the largest population of young people anywhere in the world. Ten million new people join the workforce every year…Globalization is really the best way to lift millions of people out of poverty because it increases trade; it increases job creation. It’s the same globalization that gives you a $40 DVD player…People believe the IT and business processing industries from India can go up to $50 billion…We graduate 350,000 engineers every year from all our colleges. At the Indian Institute of Technology 200,000 kids appear for the entrance exam and 2,000 or something get in.”

According to government housing and Census data, one in four families headed by someone 65 or older had a mortgage to pay in 2001. In 1989, only one in six still had mortgage payments to make. According to the Federal Reserve, debt levels of borrowers between 65 and 74 years of age doubled between 1992 and 2001 in comparison to 83% for the general population.