11/6/04 Double Counting
In the non-farm payroll survey a person with two jobs is counted as two employed people. In addition, the payroll survey systematically double-counts due to job changing. We do not live in a perfect world. However, in the October payroll report something significant happened. Some would point to the 337,000 increase in jobs. Some would suggest that, as 367,000 people entered the labor force, the unemployment rate rose from 5.4% in September to 5.5% in October. There is another item that dwarfed these two items. The number of people holding more than one job rose by 519,000 to 8 million in October. In other words, 519,000 employed people were double counted in the payroll report. The average time for the unemployed to find a job remained at 19.6 weeks.
Let’s examine the report a bit more. Temp jobs rose 47,600 to the same level reached in February 2001, a month before the last recession began. The average workweek was unchanged at 33.8 hours. The manufacturing workweek and factory overtime both declined by 0.1% and 5,000 manufacturing jobs were lost. Meanwhile, average hourly weekly earnings rose by 5 cents to $15.83 and average weekly earnings rose 0.3%. The average worker still isn’t making it. Yesterday, we mentioned that 71,000 construction jobs were added to assist in the hurricane repair work. There were 17,000 financial jobs added and retail trade jobs rose by 21,000. Not surprisingly, 41,000 health services jobs were added. A total of 22,000 education positions were added. Now get this. Within government, local education added 32,000 jobs. What education jobs are added in October? In sum, the labor force participation rate was unchanged at 65.9%; however, the number of unemployed Americans in October increased by about 69,000 from the prior month.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute stated its leading gauge of U.S. economic activity fell 1.4% in the latest week. It was the fourteenth straight week without growth and the tenth straight week it has fallen. Coincidentally, the NAPM index has been declining monthly beginning in July. With falling economic activity, there is little reason to expect hiring to expand—the exception maybe hiring by federal, state, and local governments. Their bloated payrolls can be likened to cancerous tumors enlarging on a monthly basis.
Edward Abbey: “A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government.”
Richard Nixon: “When the President does it, that means that it’s not illegal.”
Coyotes have been found roaming near the White House. They are opportunistic predators. Their principle diet is small rodents.
The monthly Spherion Employment Report, conducted by Harris Interactive, shows that, despite the addition of 337,000 jobs in October, 41% of American workers think that the economy is getting weaker, up four percentage points from September. Thirty six percent of working adults in the U.S. are likely to look for a new job in the next 12 months. Forty seven percent of employed adults in the U.S. believe that fewer jobs are available, while 22% believe more jobs are available.
John Locke: “It is one thing to show a man that he is in error, and another to put him in possession of truth.”
The S&P 500 has had nine straight days in the plus column, the most since 1997.
SBC Communications may cut 1000 jobs in Michigan. In the past year, the company has eliminated about 7,000 jobs. In 2005, SBC will cut 10,000 or more jobs. Delta Airlines will cut as many as 5,100 employees. An auto-parts manufacturing plant in Circleville, Ohio is closing its doors and putting 110 people out of work. Mervyn’s is laying off 150 workers. The Hamilton Sunstrand plant in Grand Junction, Colorado is closing down. They make parts for military jets. As one worker stated, “the way jobs are in Grand Junction right now, you can’t find anything.”
Booker T. Washington: “Success is to be measured not so much by the position that one has reached in life as by the obstacles which he has overcome while trying to succeed.”
Consumer credit grew by $9.8 billion in September or at a 5.8% annual rate.
Since same-store sales have been disappointing at Sears, Kmart, and Dillards, the companies are now viewed as real estate plays. Hope springs eternal.
The euro reached an all-time high versus the dollar, and is now 57% above its all-time low of 82 cents reached in October 2000. Each dollar now buys only about three-quarters of a euro. When the euro was introduced in 1999, it was pegged at 1 to 1 against the dollar. The dollar has also been falling against the yen, the British pound, the Swiss franc, and the Canadian dollar. As our deficits continue to rise to record levels, the value of the dollar will continue to depreciate. That’s been proven over the last few years.
According to the Cambridge Consumer Credit Index, 56% of Americans say their monthly lease and car payments are enough of a burden to prevent them from making other big ticket purchases. In addition, 17% of those with car loan payments say these loans are a major burden, up from 11% who said so in 2003. The average car payments have risen because of higher car prices with 17% of those with car payments spending between $500 and $700 per month, up from 10% who paid that amount in 2003.
The credit rating on GM’s $150 billion of debt was cut to two grades above junk.
Gold is trading near $435 per ounce and oil remains just below $50 per barrel.
I find it interesting that the number of unemployed people and the number of people working multiple jobs are each very close in number to 8 million. You add in marginally attached and discouraged workers, and you are at 18.2 million Americans. I won’t double count the under-employed. I leave double counting to the Labor Department.
Ken Goldstein, economist for the Conference Board: "There's a laundry list of indicators that are suggesting the economy in general and the labor market in particular are losing momentum, softening."
Dan Radford, director of the Fedral Reserve Bank of Cincinnati: "What we need are jobs for middle-class folks with skills."
Friday, November 05, 2004
11/5/04 Spending Political Capital
The operative word is “spending.” The government has no capital unless you are confused with the capitol building, and that is owned by the taxpayers. Fortunately, not all Americans are in a reversible coma. Karl Rove may perceive all Americans as brain dead. The last time I checked I, thank God, did not fall into this category. Before Wall Street and Bush get too carried away, I suggest they face a little housekeeping measure. When the Congress returns in mid-November, the first item on the agenda will be to vote on raising the federal debt limit. That’s the one that was reached about three weeks ago at $7.38 trillion. In the interim, in an effort to avoid exceeding the cap, the Treasury department temporarily suspended contributions to a government pension plan. Snow mentioned that “by mid-November all of our previously used prudent and legal actions to avoid breaching the statutory debt limit will be exhausted.” For all followers of the Center for Moral Clarity, it might be noted that Bush submitted a budget to the Congress in February 2001 and he promised that the debt ceiling would not have to be increased until 2008. That promise has been breached three times by Bush, and obviously broken promises are part of a mandate. A spokesperson for Bush claimed breaching the debt limit “is nothing we have control over.” I have zero confidence in Bush reversing his irresponsible spending habits, and suggest the prompt elimination of all U.S. treasury notes in all portfolios. I believe it may state “In God We Trust” on U.S. currency, but that says nothing about the credit worthiness of the currency. Gold selling above $430 an ounce, the dollar approaching 1.29 per euro, 105.67 yen, and an 8-year-low versus the Swiss franc should be some warning signs. The U.S. debt structure is on borrowed time, and I, for one, do not believe in holding the short straw.
Mark Twain: “This nation is like all the others that have been spewed upon the earth- ready to shout for any cause that tickle its vanity or fill its pocket. What a hell of a heaven it will be when they get all these hypocrites assembled there!”
American Airlines has announced plans to furlough 450 pilots and 650 mechanics over the next few months because of soaring jet fuel costs. Venezuela’s Energy Minister RAFAEL Ramirez warned that “oil prices have not yet reached their maximum. We see the market as unstable and higher.” Heating oil inventories are 16% below this time last year. A colder-than-normal winter is anticipated for the eastern United States. As an aside, in Japan, kerosene supplies are 11.5% below this time last year.
Everything is not coming up roses in Ohio. Jim Petro, Ohio Attorney General, will be running for Governor in 2006. Yesterday, he stated “Ohio is trapped in the past. We must reinvent our government so that it runs more effectively, while costing less.” He proposes job cuts for 11,500 state workers. I wonder what the Center for Moral Clarity has to say about that. God can’t eliminate the budget deficits in Ohio.
According to a recent survey by the Securities Industry Conference, investors are expecting an average return of 12.8% on their investments in 2004 and 14.1% next year. The expectation is the highest since 2002 when investors expected 19% returns. The SIA stated the expectations are too high. I recommend the following. Sell into unrealistic expectations. Reduce and/or eliminate all non-core long-term equity holdings.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com: “The leading indicators have yellow signals, if not red, for next year. The economy is going to be struggling in the first part of the president’s term.”
Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor: “So far we haven’t had much of an effect from the rising price of oil, but I think it’s coming.” CIBC World Markets economists stated in Toronto yesterday that “the widely held view that the U.S. economy is half as sensitive to higher oil prices as it was during previous oil shocks simply does not pass the muster. The median household spends no less of its income on energy than it did 25 years ago. Energy efficiency is fast improving, but energy usage is rising even faster. And while energy-intensive goods are no longer as likely to be made at home, the energy costs embedded in their manufacture will still be borne by American consumers… In fact, on average, North American households consume about 10% more energy than they did 25 years ago.”
Houston economist Barton Smith is director of the University of Houston’s Institute for Regional Forecasting. He states that housing prices in about one-third of the country have risen far faster than incomes, in some cities 16% faster. He predicts that eventually housing prices will plummet and “it will stymie the national economy.” He believes that the bursting of the nation’s housing bubble could send our country back into stagnation, and even a recession, depending on how the Federal Reserve responds. In addition, Smith opined “I’d write construction off as a major source of growth for the next five years.”
Anchor Glass Container Corp. is the nation’s third-largest bottler. Without warning, last evening they closed their South Connellsville, Pennsylvania plant in Fayette County and approximately 300 workers are without jobs this morning. Instead of providing 90-day closure notice, the company is making monetary payment equal to 90 days of work.
Third quarter productivity slowed sharply to 1.9%, down from second quarter results of 3.9%. Unit labor costs, which reflect changes in both hourly compensation and productivity, rose 1.5% in the third quarter, about the same as the 1.4% of the second quarter.
Andre Gide: “The true hypocrite is the one who ceases to perceive his deception, the one who lies with sincerity.”
A Labor Department official stated that part of the slide in weekly unemployment claims was due to a decline in Florida where fewer people requested assistance from company closures. Many Florida businesses were interrupted the last two months due to hurricanes. Extended unemployment benefits were not available in any state during the week ending October 16. The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Oct. 23 were in California (11,561), Missouri (4,285), Illinois (3,090), Michigan (2,877), and North Carolina (2,111) while the largest decrease was I Florida with 1,555.
For the four weeks ended October 29, the same-store sales increase for the Wal-Mart store division was 2.4% versus the year ago period of plus 4%. Sam’s Club showed a 5% increase compared with the year-ago period of 7%. On the other hand, Target comparable-store sales increased 6% during the month of October compared with 4.5% in October 2003.
Kerry won more votes than any Democrat in the state of Ohio’s history- 2.65 million; however, Bush received 130,650 more. The difference was this. Bush equaled his 2000 performance by carrying 72 of 88 counties, but he improved it by increasing his vote take in 78 counties. A total of 70% of Ohio’s record 8 million registered voters cast ballots. White evangelicals and born-again voters comprised 25% of those who cast ballots in Ohio, and 76% of them voted for Bush.
Judging from the price of the stock, you may not realize that Boeing is in trouble. They are. Their defense business has been carrying the company. It is not unlike GM with its financing division and its operations in China. James Albaugh is head of Boeing's defense business. He stated “you’re going to see a reprioritization of many of the programs that the government is funding. All big programs will come under scrutiny because of their size.” This is bad news for the company. In addition, in another 6 months or so, I predict they will announce the closing down of their 767 line in Everett. There are practically no orders left on the books. The only possible near-term potential was in commercial airplanes for low-cost carriers. Late yesterday, Air Berlin placed a $6 billion order for Airbus A320s. This is significant. Currently, Air Berlin has an all-Boeing fleet. A spokesperson for Boeing stated “we’re obviously disappointed. But (Airbus) seems to be wanting to buy market share at any cost.” That sounds like a sore loser. How long will it take for the stockholders to take it on the chin? The fact is that Airbus has been outperforming Boeing for the last few years. Without cash flow from big government contracts, the next several years will not prove rewarding for Boeing or its shareholders.
Francois Rochefoucauld: “Hyprocrisy is the homage that vice pays to virtue.”
With the election, I have not spent time on analyzing the payrolls for October. I knew there would be a large pickup in construction in order to clean up after the Florida hurricanes. There were- 71,000 jobs. I knew there would be temp hiring for the holidays. There were- 48,000. Manufacturing was down 5,000 jobs in the month and the unemployment rate clibed to 5.5%. Over all, the Labor Dept stated there were 337,000 new jobs in the month of October, twice the number anticipated by economists. I will massage the numbers and we can discuss them tomorrow.
The operative word is “spending.” The government has no capital unless you are confused with the capitol building, and that is owned by the taxpayers. Fortunately, not all Americans are in a reversible coma. Karl Rove may perceive all Americans as brain dead. The last time I checked I, thank God, did not fall into this category. Before Wall Street and Bush get too carried away, I suggest they face a little housekeeping measure. When the Congress returns in mid-November, the first item on the agenda will be to vote on raising the federal debt limit. That’s the one that was reached about three weeks ago at $7.38 trillion. In the interim, in an effort to avoid exceeding the cap, the Treasury department temporarily suspended contributions to a government pension plan. Snow mentioned that “by mid-November all of our previously used prudent and legal actions to avoid breaching the statutory debt limit will be exhausted.” For all followers of the Center for Moral Clarity, it might be noted that Bush submitted a budget to the Congress in February 2001 and he promised that the debt ceiling would not have to be increased until 2008. That promise has been breached three times by Bush, and obviously broken promises are part of a mandate. A spokesperson for Bush claimed breaching the debt limit “is nothing we have control over.” I have zero confidence in Bush reversing his irresponsible spending habits, and suggest the prompt elimination of all U.S. treasury notes in all portfolios. I believe it may state “In God We Trust” on U.S. currency, but that says nothing about the credit worthiness of the currency. Gold selling above $430 an ounce, the dollar approaching 1.29 per euro, 105.67 yen, and an 8-year-low versus the Swiss franc should be some warning signs. The U.S. debt structure is on borrowed time, and I, for one, do not believe in holding the short straw.
Mark Twain: “This nation is like all the others that have been spewed upon the earth- ready to shout for any cause that tickle its vanity or fill its pocket. What a hell of a heaven it will be when they get all these hypocrites assembled there!”
American Airlines has announced plans to furlough 450 pilots and 650 mechanics over the next few months because of soaring jet fuel costs. Venezuela’s Energy Minister RAFAEL Ramirez warned that “oil prices have not yet reached their maximum. We see the market as unstable and higher.” Heating oil inventories are 16% below this time last year. A colder-than-normal winter is anticipated for the eastern United States. As an aside, in Japan, kerosene supplies are 11.5% below this time last year.
Everything is not coming up roses in Ohio. Jim Petro, Ohio Attorney General, will be running for Governor in 2006. Yesterday, he stated “Ohio is trapped in the past. We must reinvent our government so that it runs more effectively, while costing less.” He proposes job cuts for 11,500 state workers. I wonder what the Center for Moral Clarity has to say about that. God can’t eliminate the budget deficits in Ohio.
According to a recent survey by the Securities Industry Conference, investors are expecting an average return of 12.8% on their investments in 2004 and 14.1% next year. The expectation is the highest since 2002 when investors expected 19% returns. The SIA stated the expectations are too high. I recommend the following. Sell into unrealistic expectations. Reduce and/or eliminate all non-core long-term equity holdings.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com: “The leading indicators have yellow signals, if not red, for next year. The economy is going to be struggling in the first part of the president’s term.”
Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor: “So far we haven’t had much of an effect from the rising price of oil, but I think it’s coming.” CIBC World Markets economists stated in Toronto yesterday that “the widely held view that the U.S. economy is half as sensitive to higher oil prices as it was during previous oil shocks simply does not pass the muster. The median household spends no less of its income on energy than it did 25 years ago. Energy efficiency is fast improving, but energy usage is rising even faster. And while energy-intensive goods are no longer as likely to be made at home, the energy costs embedded in their manufacture will still be borne by American consumers… In fact, on average, North American households consume about 10% more energy than they did 25 years ago.”
Houston economist Barton Smith is director of the University of Houston’s Institute for Regional Forecasting. He states that housing prices in about one-third of the country have risen far faster than incomes, in some cities 16% faster. He predicts that eventually housing prices will plummet and “it will stymie the national economy.” He believes that the bursting of the nation’s housing bubble could send our country back into stagnation, and even a recession, depending on how the Federal Reserve responds. In addition, Smith opined “I’d write construction off as a major source of growth for the next five years.”
Anchor Glass Container Corp. is the nation’s third-largest bottler. Without warning, last evening they closed their South Connellsville, Pennsylvania plant in Fayette County and approximately 300 workers are without jobs this morning. Instead of providing 90-day closure notice, the company is making monetary payment equal to 90 days of work.
Third quarter productivity slowed sharply to 1.9%, down from second quarter results of 3.9%. Unit labor costs, which reflect changes in both hourly compensation and productivity, rose 1.5% in the third quarter, about the same as the 1.4% of the second quarter.
Andre Gide: “The true hypocrite is the one who ceases to perceive his deception, the one who lies with sincerity.”
A Labor Department official stated that part of the slide in weekly unemployment claims was due to a decline in Florida where fewer people requested assistance from company closures. Many Florida businesses were interrupted the last two months due to hurricanes. Extended unemployment benefits were not available in any state during the week ending October 16. The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Oct. 23 were in California (11,561), Missouri (4,285), Illinois (3,090), Michigan (2,877), and North Carolina (2,111) while the largest decrease was I Florida with 1,555.
For the four weeks ended October 29, the same-store sales increase for the Wal-Mart store division was 2.4% versus the year ago period of plus 4%. Sam’s Club showed a 5% increase compared with the year-ago period of 7%. On the other hand, Target comparable-store sales increased 6% during the month of October compared with 4.5% in October 2003.
Kerry won more votes than any Democrat in the state of Ohio’s history- 2.65 million; however, Bush received 130,650 more. The difference was this. Bush equaled his 2000 performance by carrying 72 of 88 counties, but he improved it by increasing his vote take in 78 counties. A total of 70% of Ohio’s record 8 million registered voters cast ballots. White evangelicals and born-again voters comprised 25% of those who cast ballots in Ohio, and 76% of them voted for Bush.
Judging from the price of the stock, you may not realize that Boeing is in trouble. They are. Their defense business has been carrying the company. It is not unlike GM with its financing division and its operations in China. James Albaugh is head of Boeing's defense business. He stated “you’re going to see a reprioritization of many of the programs that the government is funding. All big programs will come under scrutiny because of their size.” This is bad news for the company. In addition, in another 6 months or so, I predict they will announce the closing down of their 767 line in Everett. There are practically no orders left on the books. The only possible near-term potential was in commercial airplanes for low-cost carriers. Late yesterday, Air Berlin placed a $6 billion order for Airbus A320s. This is significant. Currently, Air Berlin has an all-Boeing fleet. A spokesperson for Boeing stated “we’re obviously disappointed. But (Airbus) seems to be wanting to buy market share at any cost.” That sounds like a sore loser. How long will it take for the stockholders to take it on the chin? The fact is that Airbus has been outperforming Boeing for the last few years. Without cash flow from big government contracts, the next several years will not prove rewarding for Boeing or its shareholders.
Francois Rochefoucauld: “Hyprocrisy is the homage that vice pays to virtue.”
With the election, I have not spent time on analyzing the payrolls for October. I knew there would be a large pickup in construction in order to clean up after the Florida hurricanes. There were- 71,000 jobs. I knew there would be temp hiring for the holidays. There were- 48,000. Manufacturing was down 5,000 jobs in the month and the unemployment rate clibed to 5.5%. Over all, the Labor Dept stated there were 337,000 new jobs in the month of October, twice the number anticipated by economists. I will massage the numbers and we can discuss them tomorrow.
Thursday, November 04, 2004
11/4/04 Seeing Red Through Moral Clarity
Have you ever heard of the Center for Moral Clarity? It’s based in Columbus, Ohio and was founded by Pastor Rod Parsley. Bush can thank him for his win. Parsley turned out the “values voters” across 2,500 counties in our nation, and, in particular, in the state of Ohio. As Parsley explains, “the left has done just that--- left, and no longer represent the mainstream. It is not that the country has become more conservative, but that throughout this campaign, the mainstream has more readily identified with the positions long-voiced by Christians and other people of faith and have naturally aligned with our platform, embracing values and a passion for a culture of life. I think we can attribute President Bush’s victory to a couple of different dynamics. Americans realized that our basic common values were under assault by the liberal agenda, and they turned out at the polls to let their voices be heard…It is obvious that the Church has not created a wave, but rather struck a nerve, reflecting the sentiments of the average American.” In Bush’s second term, Parsley will focus on a Federal Marriage Amendment, the appointment of Supreme Court justices, partial birth abortion, and a total of ten specific issues. In other words, painting the country red is aligned with embracing values and a passion for a culture of life as seen through the eyes of the Center for Moral Clarity. It makes me want to jump up and down and clap my hands, and then puke!
While the Center for Moral Clarity congratulates themselves, the U.S. September factory orders declined 0.4% in September after falling 0.3% in August. Maybe Parsley can provide more factory orders. GM and Ford October sales declined 5% in the U.S. and GM October sales declined 6.5% in China. We need Parsley to buy more cars.
American Airlines will soon announce deferring deliveries of 47 Boeing 737-800s and nine Boeing 777-200s between 2006 and 2010. We need Parsley and his Center to fly more.
I’m thinking that maybe Parsley has a plan for job creation to go with his moral values platform. I sure hope so. Lehman Bros. stated that SBC Communications may cut between 10,000 and 20,000 employees in its wire-line business. Credence Systems is cutting 160 jobs. Cincinnati Bell, not so far from Columbus, will shed 150 to 200 jobs. ShawCor Ltd. will close a plant just outside Mobile, Alabama and 450 employees will lose their jobs. According to the Charlotte, NC Chamber, the number of new and expanding companies decreased to 269 in the quarter from 309 in the third quarter of last year. Overall, Mecklenburg County experienced declines in new and expanding businesses, employment, and capital investment in the third quarter of 2004. Don’t worry, Mecklenburg. Parsley is on the way.
Qualcomm announced that 2005 should “get off to a slow start.”
Wal-Mart stated that third-quarter sales were less than hoped because the company’s lower-income customers held down spending due to higher gasoline prices and job concerns. I’m sure that Parsley can help Bush with a new energy program and permanent job cuts to spur spending and debt creation.
British home prices dropped 1.1% in October. When will lower home prices find its way to our shores? Maybe we should keep our eyes out for Los Angeles and Boston and other cities with large populations. Those areas are out of the mainstream and see blue.
According to CIRCLE Research, an estimated 21 million 18-30 year olds voted in the 2004 presidential election, up from nearly 18 million votes cast in 2000.
When issues take over, and the economy counts, and earnings are punk, and stock prices tank, do not worry. Place a call to the Heartland and ask for Parsley. I’m sure he and his evangelicals have plenty of buying power. After all, they recognize “values.”
Have you ever heard of the Center for Moral Clarity? It’s based in Columbus, Ohio and was founded by Pastor Rod Parsley. Bush can thank him for his win. Parsley turned out the “values voters” across 2,500 counties in our nation, and, in particular, in the state of Ohio. As Parsley explains, “the left has done just that--- left, and no longer represent the mainstream. It is not that the country has become more conservative, but that throughout this campaign, the mainstream has more readily identified with the positions long-voiced by Christians and other people of faith and have naturally aligned with our platform, embracing values and a passion for a culture of life. I think we can attribute President Bush’s victory to a couple of different dynamics. Americans realized that our basic common values were under assault by the liberal agenda, and they turned out at the polls to let their voices be heard…It is obvious that the Church has not created a wave, but rather struck a nerve, reflecting the sentiments of the average American.” In Bush’s second term, Parsley will focus on a Federal Marriage Amendment, the appointment of Supreme Court justices, partial birth abortion, and a total of ten specific issues. In other words, painting the country red is aligned with embracing values and a passion for a culture of life as seen through the eyes of the Center for Moral Clarity. It makes me want to jump up and down and clap my hands, and then puke!
While the Center for Moral Clarity congratulates themselves, the U.S. September factory orders declined 0.4% in September after falling 0.3% in August. Maybe Parsley can provide more factory orders. GM and Ford October sales declined 5% in the U.S. and GM October sales declined 6.5% in China. We need Parsley to buy more cars.
American Airlines will soon announce deferring deliveries of 47 Boeing 737-800s and nine Boeing 777-200s between 2006 and 2010. We need Parsley and his Center to fly more.
I’m thinking that maybe Parsley has a plan for job creation to go with his moral values platform. I sure hope so. Lehman Bros. stated that SBC Communications may cut between 10,000 and 20,000 employees in its wire-line business. Credence Systems is cutting 160 jobs. Cincinnati Bell, not so far from Columbus, will shed 150 to 200 jobs. ShawCor Ltd. will close a plant just outside Mobile, Alabama and 450 employees will lose their jobs. According to the Charlotte, NC Chamber, the number of new and expanding companies decreased to 269 in the quarter from 309 in the third quarter of last year. Overall, Mecklenburg County experienced declines in new and expanding businesses, employment, and capital investment in the third quarter of 2004. Don’t worry, Mecklenburg. Parsley is on the way.
Qualcomm announced that 2005 should “get off to a slow start.”
Wal-Mart stated that third-quarter sales were less than hoped because the company’s lower-income customers held down spending due to higher gasoline prices and job concerns. I’m sure that Parsley can help Bush with a new energy program and permanent job cuts to spur spending and debt creation.
British home prices dropped 1.1% in October. When will lower home prices find its way to our shores? Maybe we should keep our eyes out for Los Angeles and Boston and other cities with large populations. Those areas are out of the mainstream and see blue.
According to CIRCLE Research, an estimated 21 million 18-30 year olds voted in the 2004 presidential election, up from nearly 18 million votes cast in 2000.
When issues take over, and the economy counts, and earnings are punk, and stock prices tank, do not worry. Place a call to the Heartland and ask for Parsley. I’m sure he and his evangelicals have plenty of buying power. After all, they recognize “values.”
Wednesday, November 03, 2004
11/3/04 I Don’t Get Politics
After spending untold hours studying the political
landscape, I realize I understand very little. If
Ohioans stated that the economy was the number one
factor in their voting decision, and hundreds of
thousands of jobs were lost during Bush’s term of
office, then one might conclude that Ohio would
comfortably go for Kerry. Of all the states, Ohio has
been hit hardest by the loss of jobs. It was
unthinkable on my part that Ohio could go in the Bush
win column. After all, statewide voter turnout in Ohio
ran close to 72 plus percent. In fact, when it came to
voting for a president, 5.4 million Ohioans voted, up
from 4.8 million in 2000.
I realized some weeks back that the nationwide voter
turnout would be huge. I thought that first-time
voters would heavily favor Kerry. I never believed
that the increased votes from four million white male
weekly churchgoers would give Bush a 3% edge in the
popular vote. I never thought that “moral family
values” would topple the economy in the minds of so
many Americans in the voting booth. That thought still
blows my mind.
Now we wait for the provisional and absentee ballots
to be counted in Ohio. With Bush leading by 136,000
votes, it would take a miracle for a Kerry win. Local
Ohio boards don’t begin to count these provisional and
absentee ballots until November 13, and the boards
have until December 1 to certify the final results. In
the meantime, the nation will assume a Bush victory.
One might ask how is it possible that Bush’s approval
rating trailed the percentage of the votes he
garnered? I can’t answer that. If every poll showed
that a majority of Americans disapproved of Bush’s
handling of the Iraq war and the economy, then how
could he win a majority of the popular vote? There are
over 58 million Americans who came out and voted for
Bush. He will win at least 30 states.
Through the evening I kept thinking that over the past
year the unemployment rate has declined because the
labor force is shrinking. There are so many
discouraged workers. Were they so discouraged that
they did not vote in Ohio? How is it they voted in
Pennsylvania? During the month of September, 1,100
people left the Pennsylvania job market. It’s
statistics like this in Ohio that should have made a
big difference.
There is good news though. Bush will make the tax cuts
permanent. You’ll still be able to get a tax deduction
for buying a large Hummer. After Oct. 22, deductions
for such vehicles and other large SUVs were capped at
$25,000. Of course, there will be an offset. The
deficits will continue to increase, but it’s ok
because deficits don’t matter. Right? The stock market
will rally out of the box this morning. Traders can
depend on four more years of the same. Nothing will
change. Right?
Challenger, Gray, & Christmas stated layoff
announcements by U.S. companies fell 5.6% in October
to 101,840; however, it was the second straight month
that layoffs remained above 100,000, for the first
time since January-February 2003. Layoffs don’t
matter. Right?
Some time today we’ll find out the final vote tally in
Iowa. It obviously doesn’t matter that Iowa lost
27,000 manufacturing jobs during Bush’s presidency.
The seven electoral votes in Iowa don’t matter either.
They can’t tip the election results.
I have to hand it to Bush. His lack of performance
over the past four years could not defeat him. At the
end of the election night, Trump was not there to say
"you're fired."
Tuesday, November 02, 2004
11/2/04 Bush Defeats Bush
John Kerry will be our new president and he will win by a very comfortable margin. In the end, however, it will be Bush who defeated Bush. He could not master the job as CEO and Commander-in-Chief of our country. Wall Street is still in denial. Last evening, Tradesports.com had Bush winning 53% to 47%. Interestingly, by comparison, we witnessed early voting in 31 states. By my analysis, in the early voting that ended last night, Kerry was leading by 5 percentage points.
According to the survey conducted at the Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, 65% of respondents at the top 30 economics departments gave Bush’s economics policies an overall rating of “poor.” Eighty-seven percent of respondents thought Bush’s series of tax cuts were poorly designed to provide fiscal stimulus. When asked which candidate would be more beneficial to an average elderly American, the choice was Kerry by a margin of 16 to 1. For a family of four earning $50,000 a year, the margin was 14 to 1. For a new college graduate entering the workforce, the margin was 5 to 1.
The U.S. federal government is expected to borrow $100 billion in the final quarter of 2004 to pay for the budget deficits, according to the Treasury Dept. For the first quarter of 2005, the government expects to borrow a record $147 billion. From whom?
In Florida, nearly 2 ½ times the number of people who voted in early 2000 cast their ballots through early or absentee voting this election. By the time today’s election takes place today, it is likely that some of the early voters will have passed on. You see, 455 voting-age people die in Florida each day. In sum, Bush may have been stiffed by a stiff.
Helen Thomas: “The U.S. attack on Iraq is a clear violation of international law and has made us helpless to condemn others for similar acts.”
According to the Santa Clara University Business Index, Silicon Valley business leaders think a John Kerry presidency would benefit the Silicon Valley economy more than continuing with Bush. Lack of job creation, the fear of burgeoning federal deficits, and his handling of the overall economy are three reasons for the disappointment expressed in Bush.
Bush: “A low voter turnout is an indication of fewer people going to the polls.”
According to a recent survey taken by Columbus, Ohio-based Opinion Strategies Inc., 31% of Ohioans think the top national issue is the economy, followed by foreign policy (28%), health care (15%), and homeland security (8%). Importantly, 17% of respondents expect a brighter future, while 24% anticipate economic conditions to deteriorate. Similarly, 12% stated their personal or family well-being was improved from 2003, but 31% replied that it had declined. In addition, 57% think little or no progress has been made in the war on terrorism, and 69% see little or no progress in Iraq. In view of the above, I believe Kerry will carry Ohio by at least 5 percentage points.
Bush: “Well, I think if you say you’re going to do something and don’t do it, that’s trustworthiness.”
A total of 40,000 users have logged their choices for Republican and Democratic-themed musical playlists on bluebeat.com. As of last evening, Kerry’s lead over Bush has widened to 11 points.
In October, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index declined to 56.8, a 13-month low, from 58.5 in September. The production index fell to 58.9 from 61.6 in the prior month. It was the lowest level since July 2003. The employment idex dropped to 54.8, the lowest since January, from 58.1 in September. The index of inventories index fell to 48.2 from 51, and the backlog of orders index dropped to 49, the first contraction since April 2003, from 55. Unfortunately, the prices paid index rose to 78.5 from 76, while the customer index fell to 43.5%. In sum, the soft patch in manufacturing has accelerated in October. Of course, you won’t hear a Fed governor tell you that.
As of November 1, at least 1,122 members of the U.S. military have died since the beginning of the Iraq war in March 2003.
AOL is cutting more than 700 workers. The Stuart, Florida Vought Aircraft plant has layoffs starting today and continuing through February 2006. The facility will be closed.
May Dept Stores same-store sales fell 2.3% in October.
Yesterday, we experienced a welcome respite in the crude oil market as the price declined to $50 a barrel. How many really believed six months ago that we would be cheering a drop to the $50 price level?
Manfred Kurz, an economist at Bayerische Landesbank in Munich: “When purchasing power falls, there’s less money to go around.”
Yesterday, National Semiconductor lowered its revenue guidance for its quarter ending November 28 to a range of $445 million to $450 million, down approximately 18% to 19% sequentially from the prior quarter. Previously, the company had expected that the quarterly revenues would be down 8% to 10% sequentially. The company’s chairman, president, and CEO stated “inventory adjustments and lower-than-typical seasonality have been the themes so far this quarter.” Distributor resale rates of their products have not picked up through October, and this is not typical for the pre-holiday season. Demand from certain customers in Asia for handset and display products have also remained weak, due in part to excess supply in those channels, the company stated.
There is some good news. According to Hewitt Associates, companies nationwide are planning to give their employees a 3.6% boost in their base pay next year, up from 3.4% they parceled out this year. Unfortunately, these wage gains are being offset by rising health insurance costs. Hewitt stated that average out-of-pocket medical expenses have soared to $1,030 this year, up from $383 in 1998. In addition, the nation’s workers on average will pay $1,565 in health care premiums, up from $630 in 1998.
The nation's chain store same-store sales declined 0.3% in the week ended Oct. 30 compared to the prior week. It was the third consecutive week-to-week decline, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS.
John Kerry will be our new president and he will win by a very comfortable margin. In the end, however, it will be Bush who defeated Bush. He could not master the job as CEO and Commander-in-Chief of our country. Wall Street is still in denial. Last evening, Tradesports.com had Bush winning 53% to 47%. Interestingly, by comparison, we witnessed early voting in 31 states. By my analysis, in the early voting that ended last night, Kerry was leading by 5 percentage points.
According to the survey conducted at the Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, 65% of respondents at the top 30 economics departments gave Bush’s economics policies an overall rating of “poor.” Eighty-seven percent of respondents thought Bush’s series of tax cuts were poorly designed to provide fiscal stimulus. When asked which candidate would be more beneficial to an average elderly American, the choice was Kerry by a margin of 16 to 1. For a family of four earning $50,000 a year, the margin was 14 to 1. For a new college graduate entering the workforce, the margin was 5 to 1.
The U.S. federal government is expected to borrow $100 billion in the final quarter of 2004 to pay for the budget deficits, according to the Treasury Dept. For the first quarter of 2005, the government expects to borrow a record $147 billion. From whom?
In Florida, nearly 2 ½ times the number of people who voted in early 2000 cast their ballots through early or absentee voting this election. By the time today’s election takes place today, it is likely that some of the early voters will have passed on. You see, 455 voting-age people die in Florida each day. In sum, Bush may have been stiffed by a stiff.
Helen Thomas: “The U.S. attack on Iraq is a clear violation of international law and has made us helpless to condemn others for similar acts.”
According to the Santa Clara University Business Index, Silicon Valley business leaders think a John Kerry presidency would benefit the Silicon Valley economy more than continuing with Bush. Lack of job creation, the fear of burgeoning federal deficits, and his handling of the overall economy are three reasons for the disappointment expressed in Bush.
Bush: “A low voter turnout is an indication of fewer people going to the polls.”
According to a recent survey taken by Columbus, Ohio-based Opinion Strategies Inc., 31% of Ohioans think the top national issue is the economy, followed by foreign policy (28%), health care (15%), and homeland security (8%). Importantly, 17% of respondents expect a brighter future, while 24% anticipate economic conditions to deteriorate. Similarly, 12% stated their personal or family well-being was improved from 2003, but 31% replied that it had declined. In addition, 57% think little or no progress has been made in the war on terrorism, and 69% see little or no progress in Iraq. In view of the above, I believe Kerry will carry Ohio by at least 5 percentage points.
Bush: “Well, I think if you say you’re going to do something and don’t do it, that’s trustworthiness.”
A total of 40,000 users have logged their choices for Republican and Democratic-themed musical playlists on bluebeat.com. As of last evening, Kerry’s lead over Bush has widened to 11 points.
In October, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index declined to 56.8, a 13-month low, from 58.5 in September. The production index fell to 58.9 from 61.6 in the prior month. It was the lowest level since July 2003. The employment idex dropped to 54.8, the lowest since January, from 58.1 in September. The index of inventories index fell to 48.2 from 51, and the backlog of orders index dropped to 49, the first contraction since April 2003, from 55. Unfortunately, the prices paid index rose to 78.5 from 76, while the customer index fell to 43.5%. In sum, the soft patch in manufacturing has accelerated in October. Of course, you won’t hear a Fed governor tell you that.
As of November 1, at least 1,122 members of the U.S. military have died since the beginning of the Iraq war in March 2003.
AOL is cutting more than 700 workers. The Stuart, Florida Vought Aircraft plant has layoffs starting today and continuing through February 2006. The facility will be closed.
May Dept Stores same-store sales fell 2.3% in October.
Yesterday, we experienced a welcome respite in the crude oil market as the price declined to $50 a barrel. How many really believed six months ago that we would be cheering a drop to the $50 price level?
Manfred Kurz, an economist at Bayerische Landesbank in Munich: “When purchasing power falls, there’s less money to go around.”
Yesterday, National Semiconductor lowered its revenue guidance for its quarter ending November 28 to a range of $445 million to $450 million, down approximately 18% to 19% sequentially from the prior quarter. Previously, the company had expected that the quarterly revenues would be down 8% to 10% sequentially. The company’s chairman, president, and CEO stated “inventory adjustments and lower-than-typical seasonality have been the themes so far this quarter.” Distributor resale rates of their products have not picked up through October, and this is not typical for the pre-holiday season. Demand from certain customers in Asia for handset and display products have also remained weak, due in part to excess supply in those channels, the company stated.
There is some good news. According to Hewitt Associates, companies nationwide are planning to give their employees a 3.6% boost in their base pay next year, up from 3.4% they parceled out this year. Unfortunately, these wage gains are being offset by rising health insurance costs. Hewitt stated that average out-of-pocket medical expenses have soared to $1,030 this year, up from $383 in 1998. In addition, the nation’s workers on average will pay $1,565 in health care premiums, up from $630 in 1998.
The nation's chain store same-store sales declined 0.3% in the week ended Oct. 30 compared to the prior week. It was the third consecutive week-to-week decline, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS.
Monday, November 01, 2004
11/1/04 Make Your Day. Make A Difference. Vote Tomorrow.
John F. Kennedy: '"The high office of President has been used to foment a plot to destroy the Americans freedom, and before I leave office I must inform the citizen of his plight."
All voters support our troops, but less than half support the war in Iraq. Our total military presence in Iraq has just been increased to 142,000, the highest level since the summer of 2003. That does not sound like we're making progress in our occupation.
A deputy governor of Baghdad was gunned down on Monday, and two bodyguards were injured.
In the September quarter, Toyota's sales increased 9.4% but net income declined 1.5% as increased incentives cut into operating margins. When a great company experiences tough going, it's no wonder GM and Ford are mired in manure.
Depending on the voter's choice of poison, it appears to be fear over terrorism and/or fear over the economy. Some predict 120 million votes will be cast in this election. Republicans claim they have registered 3.4 million new voters and Democrats proclaim registering twice that number.
The U.S. strategic oil reserve now holds about 670 million barrels of crude oil, close to its 700 million barrel capacity. At $52 a barrel, that's not chump change.
Nigeria is the fifth-largest source of U.S. crude and exports around 2.5 million barrels daily. On Sunday, the country's main labor union called for a nationwide strike on November 16.
John Glenn: "I think the people are beginning to shift. And I'm not gonna predict a landslide, but I'm gonna predict a victory next Tuesday."
So much for buying on the cheap and lowering its offer. Oracle raised its bid for PeopleSoft from $21 to $24 per share.
Clint Eastwood: "This film cost $31 million. With that kind of money, I could have invaded some country."
Bruce Springsteen: "The country we carry in our hearts is waiting, and together we can move America toward her deepest ideals."
DoubleClick retained Lazard Freres in an effort to explore ways to increase shareholder value.
John F. Kennedy: '"The high office of President has been used to foment a plot to destroy the Americans freedom, and before I leave office I must inform the citizen of his plight."
All voters support our troops, but less than half support the war in Iraq. Our total military presence in Iraq has just been increased to 142,000, the highest level since the summer of 2003. That does not sound like we're making progress in our occupation.
A deputy governor of Baghdad was gunned down on Monday, and two bodyguards were injured.
In the September quarter, Toyota's sales increased 9.4% but net income declined 1.5% as increased incentives cut into operating margins. When a great company experiences tough going, it's no wonder GM and Ford are mired in manure.
Depending on the voter's choice of poison, it appears to be fear over terrorism and/or fear over the economy. Some predict 120 million votes will be cast in this election. Republicans claim they have registered 3.4 million new voters and Democrats proclaim registering twice that number.
The U.S. strategic oil reserve now holds about 670 million barrels of crude oil, close to its 700 million barrel capacity. At $52 a barrel, that's not chump change.
Nigeria is the fifth-largest source of U.S. crude and exports around 2.5 million barrels daily. On Sunday, the country's main labor union called for a nationwide strike on November 16.
John Glenn: "I think the people are beginning to shift. And I'm not gonna predict a landslide, but I'm gonna predict a victory next Tuesday."
So much for buying on the cheap and lowering its offer. Oracle raised its bid for PeopleSoft from $21 to $24 per share.
Clint Eastwood: "This film cost $31 million. With that kind of money, I could have invaded some country."
Bruce Springsteen: "The country we carry in our hearts is waiting, and together we can move America toward her deepest ideals."
DoubleClick retained Lazard Freres in an effort to explore ways to increase shareholder value.
Sunday, October 31, 2004
10/31/04 Face The facts
Early this morning we turned back the clock; however, you can’t turn the clock back on the truth or on the facts. Simply put, that is the main reason Bush will lose on Tuesday. Yes, Kerry will win, but it is more about Bush beating Bush.
Bhagavad Gita: "Fear not what is not real, never was and never will be. What is real, always was and cannot be destroyed."
Yesterday, nine U.S. marines were killed and nine others wounded in Iraq. It was the most U.S. deaths on a single day since May 2. Since our invasion of Iraq, at least 1,121 of our fighting men and women have been killed. According to the Lancet, a British medical journal, U.S. and coalition forces have killed 100,000 Iraqi civilians since the fall of Saddam Hussein on April 9, 2003. This report is based on extensive household survey research in Iraq in September 2004.
Nearly 2 million have voted early in Florida.
Iowa has lost 27,000 manufacturing jobs during Bush’s presidency. This fact will play an important role in Bush losing Iowa on Tuesday.
According to the National Council of State Legislatures, Congress owes the states a minimum of $50 billion for fiscal 2004 and 2005 for federally mandated programs that were not fully funded by Washington. So how were state budgets balanced? Services were cut and taxes increased. Property taxes rose an average of 10% in the past year.
The Census Bureau estimates that 5.2 million Americans lost health insurance since Bush arrived at the White House.
Increasing homeowner’s insurance rates have partially offset lower mortgage payments that have resulted from lower interest rates.
According to Bloomberg data, over the past four years the U.S. CPI has outpaced personal income growth.
Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize winner in economics and a professor at Columbia University: “The dividend tax cut was the most egregious and provided no (economic and job-producing) stimulus.”
According to the federal Energy Information Administration, the U.S. will consume about 7.5 billion barrels of oil this year, 27.4% more than in 1981, the peak year for oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis.
According to McKinsey & Co., about $1 billion is invested in China per week.
According to the Economic Policy Institute, even with the tax breaks of 2001 and 2003, “all (middle-income) fixed-family types except single mothers experienced a drop in after-tax income—a decline of 0.2% for two-parent families and of 1.4% for young singles and elderly couples.”
Pollster John Zogby: “Months ago I said I thought John Kerry would win…I am sticking with that prediction…This is a referendum on George W. Bush and we see an incumbent polling at 47-48 percent. That is not enough to win.”
The Census Bureau said in August that the ranks of the uninsured and the impoverished grew in 2003 for the third consecutive year, with the number living in poverty rising 1.3 million to 35.8 million. A new Agriculture Report will show an increase in the number of households that either don’t have access to enough food or have experienced hunger.
There are about 42 million Americans aged 18 to 34, and only 36% of 18 to 24 year-olds voted in 2000, compared with 72% of 65 to 72 year-olds. A much higher percentage of 18 to 24 year-olds will vote in this election. It will prove a major reason for Bush not being re-elected.
Visteon was separated from Ford more than four years ago. The company is facing heavy losses, and an aggressive restructuring is in the works. They employ 21,000 workers in southeast Michigan. Visteon plans major cutbacks and will sell or close several unprofitable factories, cutting a portion of its 8,500 U.S. salaried employees and hastening the transfer of factory workers back to Ford. Visteon has worldwide sales of $18 billion and is the second-largest U.S. automotive supplier. Visteon still has 18,000 Ford employees making an average wage of $25 an hour in its factories. New workers receive $14 an hour at Visteon. Do not be surprised to see Visteon go to a four-day work- week to reduce labor costs.
The problems at Visteon highlight current conditions at GM and Ford. They operate too many plants, have too many employees, wages and benefits are much higher than those of competitors, and the inventory levels require cutting back. By running the plants at about a 17 million yearly car rate, the nation’s GDP growth has been overstated for all of 2004. Increased incentives and rising profits in their financing divisions have masked the growing existence of many unprofitable factories and the declining market share for both companies. Unless escalating problems are addressed, stockholders will be left holding the bag.
On election day 2000 the euro was worth 86 cents. On election day 2004 it will be worth about $1.28. So much for the purchasing power of all Americans!
Bunnatine Greenhouse does not preside over our government’s policy on global warming . She is the Army Corps of Engineers top contracting officer. She wrote on October 5 to Lt. Gen. Carl Strock, commander of the Army Corps of Engineers, that Halliburton’s extended troop support contract in the Balkans should not be extended and that “there is little or no incentive for the contractor to reduce or keep cost down…it is not reasonable to believe that only one source responded to the solicitation…the general feeling in the theatre is that the contractor is ‘out of control,’” She went on to say that contracting officials must work as a team because “divided- the contractor will eat our lunch.”
Ghostzapper has the potential to be the best horse since Secretariat. This one is the real deal.
Albert Einstein: "Many of the things you can count, don't count. Many of the things you can't count, really count."
Early this morning we turned back the clock; however, you can’t turn the clock back on the truth or on the facts. Simply put, that is the main reason Bush will lose on Tuesday. Yes, Kerry will win, but it is more about Bush beating Bush.
Bhagavad Gita: "Fear not what is not real, never was and never will be. What is real, always was and cannot be destroyed."
Yesterday, nine U.S. marines were killed and nine others wounded in Iraq. It was the most U.S. deaths on a single day since May 2. Since our invasion of Iraq, at least 1,121 of our fighting men and women have been killed. According to the Lancet, a British medical journal, U.S. and coalition forces have killed 100,000 Iraqi civilians since the fall of Saddam Hussein on April 9, 2003. This report is based on extensive household survey research in Iraq in September 2004.
Nearly 2 million have voted early in Florida.
Iowa has lost 27,000 manufacturing jobs during Bush’s presidency. This fact will play an important role in Bush losing Iowa on Tuesday.
According to the National Council of State Legislatures, Congress owes the states a minimum of $50 billion for fiscal 2004 and 2005 for federally mandated programs that were not fully funded by Washington. So how were state budgets balanced? Services were cut and taxes increased. Property taxes rose an average of 10% in the past year.
The Census Bureau estimates that 5.2 million Americans lost health insurance since Bush arrived at the White House.
Increasing homeowner’s insurance rates have partially offset lower mortgage payments that have resulted from lower interest rates.
According to Bloomberg data, over the past four years the U.S. CPI has outpaced personal income growth.
Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize winner in economics and a professor at Columbia University: “The dividend tax cut was the most egregious and provided no (economic and job-producing) stimulus.”
According to the federal Energy Information Administration, the U.S. will consume about 7.5 billion barrels of oil this year, 27.4% more than in 1981, the peak year for oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis.
According to McKinsey & Co., about $1 billion is invested in China per week.
According to the Economic Policy Institute, even with the tax breaks of 2001 and 2003, “all (middle-income) fixed-family types except single mothers experienced a drop in after-tax income—a decline of 0.2% for two-parent families and of 1.4% for young singles and elderly couples.”
Pollster John Zogby: “Months ago I said I thought John Kerry would win…I am sticking with that prediction…This is a referendum on George W. Bush and we see an incumbent polling at 47-48 percent. That is not enough to win.”
The Census Bureau said in August that the ranks of the uninsured and the impoverished grew in 2003 for the third consecutive year, with the number living in poverty rising 1.3 million to 35.8 million. A new Agriculture Report will show an increase in the number of households that either don’t have access to enough food or have experienced hunger.
There are about 42 million Americans aged 18 to 34, and only 36% of 18 to 24 year-olds voted in 2000, compared with 72% of 65 to 72 year-olds. A much higher percentage of 18 to 24 year-olds will vote in this election. It will prove a major reason for Bush not being re-elected.
Visteon was separated from Ford more than four years ago. The company is facing heavy losses, and an aggressive restructuring is in the works. They employ 21,000 workers in southeast Michigan. Visteon plans major cutbacks and will sell or close several unprofitable factories, cutting a portion of its 8,500 U.S. salaried employees and hastening the transfer of factory workers back to Ford. Visteon has worldwide sales of $18 billion and is the second-largest U.S. automotive supplier. Visteon still has 18,000 Ford employees making an average wage of $25 an hour in its factories. New workers receive $14 an hour at Visteon. Do not be surprised to see Visteon go to a four-day work- week to reduce labor costs.
The problems at Visteon highlight current conditions at GM and Ford. They operate too many plants, have too many employees, wages and benefits are much higher than those of competitors, and the inventory levels require cutting back. By running the plants at about a 17 million yearly car rate, the nation’s GDP growth has been overstated for all of 2004. Increased incentives and rising profits in their financing divisions have masked the growing existence of many unprofitable factories and the declining market share for both companies. Unless escalating problems are addressed, stockholders will be left holding the bag.
On election day 2000 the euro was worth 86 cents. On election day 2004 it will be worth about $1.28. So much for the purchasing power of all Americans!
Bunnatine Greenhouse does not preside over our government’s policy on global warming . She is the Army Corps of Engineers top contracting officer. She wrote on October 5 to Lt. Gen. Carl Strock, commander of the Army Corps of Engineers, that Halliburton’s extended troop support contract in the Balkans should not be extended and that “there is little or no incentive for the contractor to reduce or keep cost down…it is not reasonable to believe that only one source responded to the solicitation…the general feeling in the theatre is that the contractor is ‘out of control,’” She went on to say that contracting officials must work as a team because “divided- the contractor will eat our lunch.”
Ghostzapper has the potential to be the best horse since Secretariat. This one is the real deal.
Albert Einstein: "Many of the things you can count, don't count. Many of the things you can't count, really count."
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