3/11/03 An Exit Strategy
Whether it's in the area of investing, diplomacy, or even relationships, one would be best off by having an exit strategy prior to getting in over one's head. There is absolutely no rationality in the risk of drowning in deep water when one's swimming skills are limited. In the stock market investors often get stubborn and insist the market is wrong. The market takes no prisoners. When you go against the trend, you must re-group and exit gracefully. Your first loss is your best loss. Minimize the loss whenever possible. We can't be right all the time, but being wrong can be costly, and that's true in life.
Milton Friedman: "Only government can take perfectly good paper, cover it with perfectly good ink, and make the combination worthless."
The UN Head, Kofi Annan, said that military action against Iraq without UN support would violate the organization's charter.
The quarterly earnings for HJ Heinz was lower.
Nokia warned on its sales outlook.
Volkswagen's first quarter earnings will fall significantly.
The Nikkei closed below 8000 for the first time in 20 years.
Consumer pessimism worsened a good deal as it relates to the economy, and the index dropped to 48.8, and is the first time ever it has been below 50. This is highly important. I hope everyone is paying attention. The poll was taken on Sunday.
Japan Airlines cuts its forecast by 67%.
Robert Higgs, a senior fellow in political economy at the Independent Institute: "It seems to me that when we enacted the USA Patriot Act, the U.S. came closer to being a police state. If Patriot II is enacted, we have kissed the Constitution goodbye."
al-Qaeda is seeking Middle East recruits for terrorist attacks on oil fields in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait should the U.S. invade Iraq.
Monday, March 10, 2003
3/10/03 Pension Fund Losses and Stock Valuations
In their latest annual report GE disclosed that its pension plan lost $5.25 billion in 2002, and this loss was equal to 29% of the company's pre-tax earnings. This is a major loss, and is not surprising given last year's drop in GE's stock price. What is surprising is the call that many well-known money managers have recently made on stock valuations. Many consider stocks to be fairly priced given the current price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500. What they have missed is the huge losses in pension funds for the S&P 500 companies. When one accounts for these losses, the price/earnings ratio no longer looks favorable. In fact, it makes stocks look overpriced. I am not including into the equation my view that earnings projections are materially too high. Once again, I urge you to forget about chasing any mini rallies. It's fool's gold, and staying on the sidelines will prove more fruitful. I know I have been saying this for three years but at least you retained your capital while others suffered huge losses- like the GE pension fund.
Heating oil prices are up 58% this year.
Japan's February bank lending fell for the 63rd consecutive month. That's quite a streak.
The Nikkei fell below the 8000 mark, and this average has not closed below that level since March 1983.
Warren Buffett: "Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Gasoline is $1.50 per gallon in Atlanta and $2.10 in San Francisco. In the past two weeks pump prices are up 14 cents a gallon in California.
Today, 25% of doctors are women. By 2010 the percentage is expected to increase to 33%.
Same store sales for Best Buy were down 0.2% and for Circuit City down 6%.
The late U.S. Air Force Colonel John Boyd said that war is fought at three levels- moral, mental, and physical. He said the moral level is the most powerful and the physical level the least powerful.
Last year India's GDP grew at a 4.4% annual rate.
There are 32.5 million foreign-born citizens in the U.S. or 11 1/2% of the population.
The growers elected a new board of directors at Ocean Spray.
Has anyone seen Saif al-Adel? With a $25 million reward it might prove more lucrative than winning lotto. He is supposedly the number three in al-Qaeda. How many number threes are there? It reminds me of a quiz show.
In their latest annual report GE disclosed that its pension plan lost $5.25 billion in 2002, and this loss was equal to 29% of the company's pre-tax earnings. This is a major loss, and is not surprising given last year's drop in GE's stock price. What is surprising is the call that many well-known money managers have recently made on stock valuations. Many consider stocks to be fairly priced given the current price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500. What they have missed is the huge losses in pension funds for the S&P 500 companies. When one accounts for these losses, the price/earnings ratio no longer looks favorable. In fact, it makes stocks look overpriced. I am not including into the equation my view that earnings projections are materially too high. Once again, I urge you to forget about chasing any mini rallies. It's fool's gold, and staying on the sidelines will prove more fruitful. I know I have been saying this for three years but at least you retained your capital while others suffered huge losses- like the GE pension fund.
Heating oil prices are up 58% this year.
Japan's February bank lending fell for the 63rd consecutive month. That's quite a streak.
The Nikkei fell below the 8000 mark, and this average has not closed below that level since March 1983.
Warren Buffett: "Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Gasoline is $1.50 per gallon in Atlanta and $2.10 in San Francisco. In the past two weeks pump prices are up 14 cents a gallon in California.
Today, 25% of doctors are women. By 2010 the percentage is expected to increase to 33%.
Same store sales for Best Buy were down 0.2% and for Circuit City down 6%.
The late U.S. Air Force Colonel John Boyd said that war is fought at three levels- moral, mental, and physical. He said the moral level is the most powerful and the physical level the least powerful.
Last year India's GDP grew at a 4.4% annual rate.
There are 32.5 million foreign-born citizens in the U.S. or 11 1/2% of the population.
The growers elected a new board of directors at Ocean Spray.
Has anyone seen Saif al-Adel? With a $25 million reward it might prove more lucrative than winning lotto. He is supposedly the number three in al-Qaeda. How many number threes are there? It reminds me of a quiz show.
Sunday, March 09, 2003
3/9/03 Jesse Livermore
About 70 years ago Jesse was known as the greatest trader Wall Street had ever known. He had his own system, and he followed it like a religion. He could do no wrong. Then slowly Jesse got to reading his own headlines. It got to the point where he believed he could do anything he set out to do. The problem was he forgot his basic trading tenets, the ones where he could do no wrong. Jesse lost all his money, and finally his life was taken via suicide.
Jesse Livermore: "There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side."
Jesse Livermore: "A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong-not taking the loss- that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul." In the end, Jesse was done in by not taking the loss.
Berkshire Hathaway had a banner year in 2002, and earned $4.3 billion on revenues of $42 billion. Winners like Warren Buffett do it the old fashion way- they stick to their knitting and work hard.
Heizo Takenada, Japan's Economics and Financial Services Minister, said today that the BOJ should ease monetary policy even more. Right now short term interest rates are at zero per cent. He suggested the BOJ buy stocks and possibly real estate. Then he got a dose of reality and said "basically, stock price remedies- measures to boost stock prices- are simply impossible." That's right. The market is bigger than any single entity or group of entities, and that includes governments.
The CIA holds two of Shaikh Mohammed's sons in their attempt to get their father to talk. Terrorism is a dirty business.
Health care staffing is a different reality from the job market on main street. It is common to offer a $5000 signing bonus in order to hire an experienced register nurse. Quarterly raises come with the hiring package.
About 70 years ago Jesse was known as the greatest trader Wall Street had ever known. He had his own system, and he followed it like a religion. He could do no wrong. Then slowly Jesse got to reading his own headlines. It got to the point where he believed he could do anything he set out to do. The problem was he forgot his basic trading tenets, the ones where he could do no wrong. Jesse lost all his money, and finally his life was taken via suicide.
Jesse Livermore: "There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side."
Jesse Livermore: "A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong-not taking the loss- that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul." In the end, Jesse was done in by not taking the loss.
Berkshire Hathaway had a banner year in 2002, and earned $4.3 billion on revenues of $42 billion. Winners like Warren Buffett do it the old fashion way- they stick to their knitting and work hard.
Heizo Takenada, Japan's Economics and Financial Services Minister, said today that the BOJ should ease monetary policy even more. Right now short term interest rates are at zero per cent. He suggested the BOJ buy stocks and possibly real estate. Then he got a dose of reality and said "basically, stock price remedies- measures to boost stock prices- are simply impossible." That's right. The market is bigger than any single entity or group of entities, and that includes governments.
The CIA holds two of Shaikh Mohammed's sons in their attempt to get their father to talk. Terrorism is a dirty business.
Health care staffing is a different reality from the job market on main street. It is common to offer a $5000 signing bonus in order to hire an experienced register nurse. Quarterly raises come with the hiring package.
Saturday, March 08, 2003
3/8/03 Don't Complain About The Recession-It Might Worsen
Two year treasury notes yield 1.36%, the lowest level since being regularly issued 30 years ago. The Fed's overnight funds rate of 1.25% will be reduced at the next Fed meeting on March 18. If rates went to zero per cent, it would be too little too late. The Fed is out of the picture. They blew their shot long ago. The economy is spinning out of control, and the downward spiral is picking up speed.
The aggregate hours worked dropped 1% in February. In other words, workers are being paid for less hours but being asked to produce more in those less hours. Morale and fairness be damned.
John Snow: "the cost of war is a one-time sort of thing." Death, John, has an on-going price tag.
Ebay shuts down Half.com.
Microsoft releases their test IM version.
Last October, by a vote of 77-23, the Senate voted to authorize the president to take military action against Iraq. Many, including Tom Harkin of Iowa, said they voted in favor because the language required the administration to seek diplomatic solutions to the stand off with Iraq. Those solutions have been sought; however, the vote to invade Iraq would be very different today.
Hooters Air had their inaugural flight from Atlanta to Myrtle Beach. Will snug t-shirts and orange hotpants sell friendly seats? The chicken wings will not be served.
Will Rogers: "the nation is prosperous on the whole, but how much prosperity is there in a hole?
Intel lost market share due to price hikes in flash memory. In a weak economy pricing power is a figment of one's imagination. Intel's imagination must be running wild. That's more than I can say for their stock price.
The FTSE closed at a 5 week low.
Warren Buffett: "Unfortunately, the hangover from the market bubble may prove to be proportional to the binge."
Crude oil prices rose to a 12 year high. The price of oil has risen 21% this year.
Currently, Iraq is pumping 2.5 billion barrels a day or 3% of the world's oil supply. Opec as a whole pumps a third of the world's oil.
Mahatma Ghandi: "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."
Mahatma Ghandi: "Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever."
The NYC musicians' strike closed Broadway musicals for the first time since 1975.
Jeff Immelt, Ge Chairman: "we have identified six new platforms that we believe can be big, each having $1 billion of operating profit within the next few years- healthcare information technology, security and sensors, Hispanic broadcasting, water technology and services, and U.S. consumer finance.
AynRand: "force and mind are opposites, morality ends where the gun begins."
Paul Volcker: "If you don't have bad loans, you are not in business." Japan and China have learned that.
Two year treasury notes yield 1.36%, the lowest level since being regularly issued 30 years ago. The Fed's overnight funds rate of 1.25% will be reduced at the next Fed meeting on March 18. If rates went to zero per cent, it would be too little too late. The Fed is out of the picture. They blew their shot long ago. The economy is spinning out of control, and the downward spiral is picking up speed.
The aggregate hours worked dropped 1% in February. In other words, workers are being paid for less hours but being asked to produce more in those less hours. Morale and fairness be damned.
John Snow: "the cost of war is a one-time sort of thing." Death, John, has an on-going price tag.
Ebay shuts down Half.com.
Microsoft releases their test IM version.
Last October, by a vote of 77-23, the Senate voted to authorize the president to take military action against Iraq. Many, including Tom Harkin of Iowa, said they voted in favor because the language required the administration to seek diplomatic solutions to the stand off with Iraq. Those solutions have been sought; however, the vote to invade Iraq would be very different today.
Hooters Air had their inaugural flight from Atlanta to Myrtle Beach. Will snug t-shirts and orange hotpants sell friendly seats? The chicken wings will not be served.
Will Rogers: "the nation is prosperous on the whole, but how much prosperity is there in a hole?
Intel lost market share due to price hikes in flash memory. In a weak economy pricing power is a figment of one's imagination. Intel's imagination must be running wild. That's more than I can say for their stock price.
The FTSE closed at a 5 week low.
Warren Buffett: "Unfortunately, the hangover from the market bubble may prove to be proportional to the binge."
Crude oil prices rose to a 12 year high. The price of oil has risen 21% this year.
Currently, Iraq is pumping 2.5 billion barrels a day or 3% of the world's oil supply. Opec as a whole pumps a third of the world's oil.
Mahatma Ghandi: "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."
Mahatma Ghandi: "Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever."
The NYC musicians' strike closed Broadway musicals for the first time since 1975.
Jeff Immelt, Ge Chairman: "we have identified six new platforms that we believe can be big, each having $1 billion of operating profit within the next few years- healthcare information technology, security and sensors, Hispanic broadcasting, water technology and services, and U.S. consumer finance.
AynRand: "force and mind are opposites, morality ends where the gun begins."
Paul Volcker: "If you don't have bad loans, you are not in business." Japan and China have learned that.
Friday, March 07, 2003
3/7/03 God Doesn't Play Dice
That quotation belongs to Albert Einstein. He also said "not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts."
Payrolls plunged by 308,000, and this was the sharpest drop since 9/11. Believe it or not payrolls had been expected to rise by 10,000. Just the other day I mentioned you could expect a downbeat employment report. Jobs, or the lack of, are going from bad to awful. You can expect it to get worse.
The Nikkei ended at a fresh 20 year low.
The dollar hit a new 4 year low vs the Euro and the Swiss franc.
The airline industry is expected to lose $6.5 billion in 2003.
Niccolo Machiavelli: "If an injury has to be done to a man it should be so severe that his vengeance need not be feared." I'm with you on this one, Niccolo.
Ulysses S. Grant: "I never advocated war except as a means of peace." Ditto.
The insured unemployment rate jumped to 2.8% from 2.6% in the latest week. This is meaningful.
February same store sales for Barnes and Noble were down 4.4% and for B. Dalton Bookseller down 12.3%. Are people reading less?
February same store sales for Federated were down 6.8%; for Ann Taylor's down 8.6%; and for Sears down 9.4%
Sears is trading at a 10 year low. When you pick bad management, you end up with disastrous results. This compares with WalMart, and the latter just increased its dividend for the 29th consecutive year. The great ones just keep performing. They walk the talk.
Thirty year mortgages hit a record low of 5.67%
Household debt rose 10.7% in the final quarter of 2002- the biggest jump in 13 years.
Mortgage debt rose 13.7%, and it was the biggest jump in 15 years.
Germany's unemployment rate rose to 11.3%. You thought we have it bad.
Iraq owes $2 billion to the USDA for loans that have gone unpaid since 1990 plus $1 billion in interest. These were guaranteed loans to buy U.S. food. In June 1990, just 2 months prior to the invasion of Kuwait, the first Bush Administration was against imposing sanctions on Iraq, and those sanctions would have blocked sales of U.S. food to Iraq.
In Georgia wholesale natural gas prices increased 61% in the last month. This may mean an increase of $60 per month in gas bills. Given the current economic conditions, $60 is not chicken feed.
That quotation belongs to Albert Einstein. He also said "not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts."
Payrolls plunged by 308,000, and this was the sharpest drop since 9/11. Believe it or not payrolls had been expected to rise by 10,000. Just the other day I mentioned you could expect a downbeat employment report. Jobs, or the lack of, are going from bad to awful. You can expect it to get worse.
The Nikkei ended at a fresh 20 year low.
The dollar hit a new 4 year low vs the Euro and the Swiss franc.
The airline industry is expected to lose $6.5 billion in 2003.
Niccolo Machiavelli: "If an injury has to be done to a man it should be so severe that his vengeance need not be feared." I'm with you on this one, Niccolo.
Ulysses S. Grant: "I never advocated war except as a means of peace." Ditto.
The insured unemployment rate jumped to 2.8% from 2.6% in the latest week. This is meaningful.
February same store sales for Barnes and Noble were down 4.4% and for B. Dalton Bookseller down 12.3%. Are people reading less?
February same store sales for Federated were down 6.8%; for Ann Taylor's down 8.6%; and for Sears down 9.4%
Sears is trading at a 10 year low. When you pick bad management, you end up with disastrous results. This compares with WalMart, and the latter just increased its dividend for the 29th consecutive year. The great ones just keep performing. They walk the talk.
Thirty year mortgages hit a record low of 5.67%
Household debt rose 10.7% in the final quarter of 2002- the biggest jump in 13 years.
Mortgage debt rose 13.7%, and it was the biggest jump in 15 years.
Germany's unemployment rate rose to 11.3%. You thought we have it bad.
Iraq owes $2 billion to the USDA for loans that have gone unpaid since 1990 plus $1 billion in interest. These were guaranteed loans to buy U.S. food. In June 1990, just 2 months prior to the invasion of Kuwait, the first Bush Administration was against imposing sanctions on Iraq, and those sanctions would have blocked sales of U.S. food to Iraq.
In Georgia wholesale natural gas prices increased 61% in the last month. This may mean an increase of $60 per month in gas bills. Given the current economic conditions, $60 is not chicken feed.
Thursday, March 06, 2003
3/6/03 Part II: We Bleed Together
Operation Military Pride attempts to boost the morale of our troops thru cards, letters, and care packages. It's vital to support our troops- whether you are for or against the possible war with Iraq. Our troops bleed American blood. When one American bleeds, all Americans bleed. WE BLEED TOGETHER.
Pamela Bates launched her Hugs To Kuwait web site on January 4, and this was two days prior to her Army husband leaving for the middle east. In two short months she has arranged the adoption of about 10,000 troops. That's walking the talk!!!! Pamela Bates is some kind of winner.
Operation Military Pride attempts to boost the morale of our troops thru cards, letters, and care packages. It's vital to support our troops- whether you are for or against the possible war with Iraq. Our troops bleed American blood. When one American bleeds, all Americans bleed. WE BLEED TOGETHER.
Pamela Bates launched her Hugs To Kuwait web site on January 4, and this was two days prior to her Army husband leaving for the middle east. In two short months she has arranged the adoption of about 10,000 troops. That's walking the talk!!!! Pamela Bates is some kind of winner.
3/6/03 China
The jobless rate in China is at a 23 year high.
China expects a record budget deficit of $39 billion.
Eight million people each year enter the workforce in China. In order to create enough jobs the economy must grow at a 7% rate, and that is a tall order.
As in Japan, China faces a major problem with bad bank loans.
China backs France, Germany, and Russia and vows to block a UN resolution which would authorize war on Iraq.
U.S. distillate supplies drop to their lowest level for this time of year in 40 years. Crude inventories are 16% below year ago levels.
Japan's central bank raised the amount of excess cash in the financial market to up to $187 billion to try to help the stagnant economy.
Steelcase warns of more layoffs.
Last year Americans spent $14 billion on vitamins, minerals, and herbal products.
GM is considering the sale of all or part of its commercial mortgage business.
Schering Plough cut its 2003 earning s estimate to 75 to 85 cents from $1.
Jobs in the services sector fell in February. This sector accounts for 80% of the economy.
Unless Washington fiddles with the numbers, there will be a downbeat U.S. employment report out on Friday.
With growing uncertainities, hiring will be delayed this year, and layoffs shall continue.
The Reuters Eurozone Business Activity Index dropped to 48.9 in February, and this represented the first decline in 5 months and was weaker than expected.
Job cuts are coming to Toys "R" Us.
Coca Cola traded at a 7 year low. There were new lows for Kraft, Kellogg, and Adolph Coors.
PETsMART had disappointing results and a weak forecast.
WalMart's February sam store sales only grew at a 2.6% rate.
The ECB cut interest rates to 2.5%.
Swiss Life will report a loss of $1.28 billion.
The war warning has been reduced to "a few days" as the war cabinet is convened. It smells like war in the air, but to me it doesn't feel like war. I must go with my feelings. This war is preventable. The same was not true with the Gulf War. We must remember that, if emotions rule, our decision making will be compromised. When it comes to a possible war with Iraq or our war on terrorism, American lives must be protected. To defeat Iraq in a frightening flash requires no other country's assistance. To keep the peace requires the assistance of an army of countries. We need to win on both fronts.
The jobless rate in China is at a 23 year high.
China expects a record budget deficit of $39 billion.
Eight million people each year enter the workforce in China. In order to create enough jobs the economy must grow at a 7% rate, and that is a tall order.
As in Japan, China faces a major problem with bad bank loans.
China backs France, Germany, and Russia and vows to block a UN resolution which would authorize war on Iraq.
U.S. distillate supplies drop to their lowest level for this time of year in 40 years. Crude inventories are 16% below year ago levels.
Japan's central bank raised the amount of excess cash in the financial market to up to $187 billion to try to help the stagnant economy.
Steelcase warns of more layoffs.
Last year Americans spent $14 billion on vitamins, minerals, and herbal products.
GM is considering the sale of all or part of its commercial mortgage business.
Schering Plough cut its 2003 earning s estimate to 75 to 85 cents from $1.
Jobs in the services sector fell in February. This sector accounts for 80% of the economy.
Unless Washington fiddles with the numbers, there will be a downbeat U.S. employment report out on Friday.
With growing uncertainities, hiring will be delayed this year, and layoffs shall continue.
The Reuters Eurozone Business Activity Index dropped to 48.9 in February, and this represented the first decline in 5 months and was weaker than expected.
Job cuts are coming to Toys "R" Us.
Coca Cola traded at a 7 year low. There were new lows for Kraft, Kellogg, and Adolph Coors.
PETsMART had disappointing results and a weak forecast.
WalMart's February sam store sales only grew at a 2.6% rate.
The ECB cut interest rates to 2.5%.
Swiss Life will report a loss of $1.28 billion.
The war warning has been reduced to "a few days" as the war cabinet is convened. It smells like war in the air, but to me it doesn't feel like war. I must go with my feelings. This war is preventable. The same was not true with the Gulf War. We must remember that, if emotions rule, our decision making will be compromised. When it comes to a possible war with Iraq or our war on terrorism, American lives must be protected. To defeat Iraq in a frightening flash requires no other country's assistance. To keep the peace requires the assistance of an army of countries. We need to win on both fronts.
Wednesday, March 05, 2003
3/5/03 Snowed On
From the outset I have stated that Snow was an awful choice for Treasury Secretary. Yesterday the dollar fell to $1.10 vs the Euro. It was the first time it had reached this level in 4 years. Snow said "I don't see anything troubling" about the weak dollar. He "was not particularly concerned" about the weak dollar. Maybe he should consider taking his head out of the sand. The U.S. needs to attract into this country $1.6 billion per day just to fund our shortfall. A weak dollar will lead to the selling of U.S. assets and not to their purchase. One of the reasons for foreigners selling our stocks is the weak dollar. The latter is a reflection of our economy's health. Obviously, that health continues to deteriorate.
Costco reported second quarter earnings down 5% after taking a 3 cent charge on workers' compensation loss reserves. However, their February same-store sales were up 6%. That's very robust in this economy.
Britain's insurer, Friends Provident, warned it would cut future dividends.
The ECB will reduce interest rates tomorrow.
Glaxo lost an important patent case over its Paxil antidepressant, and generics will result next year.
The U.S. blocked Nestle's purchase of Dreyer's Ice Cream.
France Telecom reported the largest ever French loss.
It has been reported that the U.S. will unleash 3000 precision-guided bombs and missiles in the first 48 hours of the war with Iraq.
Zero percent financing and cash rebates are no longer attracting customers for auto purchases. Some months back I said this would happen. The consumer is tapped out.
There is a big snow storm around Chicago. Spring is not quite here. Only Lent has arrived.
Kemper Insurance has been in the insurance business for 91 years. Not so today. They just sold their last remaining insurance entity to a Swiss group.
Nearly one in three people younger than 65 went without health insurance at some point during 2001-2002. I am certain that figure is higher today. This is totally unacceptable, and the healthcare epidemic continues to explode.
88% of the Mexican public oppose a U.S.-led attack on Iraq. On July 6 Mexico has Congressional elections. Mexico is one of the 10 non-permanent members of the U.N. Security Council. How will Mexico vote on next week's resolution?
On July 20 our government ran out of funds. They had reached their debt limitation. I read about Iraq, N Korea, catching al Qaeda operatives but nothing about our money situation. It's been 2 weeks. If Iraq is running out of time, how about our fiscal crisis? It is out of time. I don't need a resolution to know action is required. Our money problems are a huge time bomb, and the explosion will make 3000 precision-guided bombs and missiles look like a fourth of July sparkler.
From the outset I have stated that Snow was an awful choice for Treasury Secretary. Yesterday the dollar fell to $1.10 vs the Euro. It was the first time it had reached this level in 4 years. Snow said "I don't see anything troubling" about the weak dollar. He "was not particularly concerned" about the weak dollar. Maybe he should consider taking his head out of the sand. The U.S. needs to attract into this country $1.6 billion per day just to fund our shortfall. A weak dollar will lead to the selling of U.S. assets and not to their purchase. One of the reasons for foreigners selling our stocks is the weak dollar. The latter is a reflection of our economy's health. Obviously, that health continues to deteriorate.
Costco reported second quarter earnings down 5% after taking a 3 cent charge on workers' compensation loss reserves. However, their February same-store sales were up 6%. That's very robust in this economy.
Britain's insurer, Friends Provident, warned it would cut future dividends.
The ECB will reduce interest rates tomorrow.
Glaxo lost an important patent case over its Paxil antidepressant, and generics will result next year.
The U.S. blocked Nestle's purchase of Dreyer's Ice Cream.
France Telecom reported the largest ever French loss.
It has been reported that the U.S. will unleash 3000 precision-guided bombs and missiles in the first 48 hours of the war with Iraq.
Zero percent financing and cash rebates are no longer attracting customers for auto purchases. Some months back I said this would happen. The consumer is tapped out.
There is a big snow storm around Chicago. Spring is not quite here. Only Lent has arrived.
Kemper Insurance has been in the insurance business for 91 years. Not so today. They just sold their last remaining insurance entity to a Swiss group.
Nearly one in three people younger than 65 went without health insurance at some point during 2001-2002. I am certain that figure is higher today. This is totally unacceptable, and the healthcare epidemic continues to explode.
88% of the Mexican public oppose a U.S.-led attack on Iraq. On July 6 Mexico has Congressional elections. Mexico is one of the 10 non-permanent members of the U.N. Security Council. How will Mexico vote on next week's resolution?
On July 20 our government ran out of funds. They had reached their debt limitation. I read about Iraq, N Korea, catching al Qaeda operatives but nothing about our money situation. It's been 2 weeks. If Iraq is running out of time, how about our fiscal crisis? It is out of time. I don't need a resolution to know action is required. Our money problems are a huge time bomb, and the explosion will make 3000 precision-guided bombs and missiles look like a fourth of July sparkler.
Tuesday, March 04, 2003
3/4/03 U.S. Consumer Spending
The above mentioned fell in January, and this was the first drop since September of last year. More significantly, there was a 5.7% drop in spending on durable goods. This was the largest drop in 13 years!
Manufacturers are feeling the pinch of higher energy prices; however, they are unable to pass the higher costs along to the customer. As such, profit margins are dwindling, and, as they do, earnings estimates will be reduced.
GM auto sales fell 19%.
The ISM index fell to 50.5 in February.
Kuwait is accepting the 60,000 troops which were intended for Turkey.
Iraq has 120 surface to air missiles and 16 have been destroyed to this point. Yesterday Iraq moved some surface to air missiles in the direction of Kuwait City. Their range is 85 miles, and the U.S could take them out in several seconds.
Today the President gives a talk to the AMA and he will state that his program will not force seniors into managed care. He couldn't even if he so desired.
President Bush Sr spent the majority of his time focusing on foreign policy and the Gulf War. The American people felt he was not in touch with their needs, and thus, he lost the re-election. His son is making the same mistake. He must balance terrorism with the concerns surrounding the economy. The latter is on a precipice which is sitting on very shaky territory.
How do you balance a budget deficit? Oregon says it's easy. You raise $300 million in debt and then take $112 million from an education fund. You thought only CE0s played with the books. Not so.
The above mentioned fell in January, and this was the first drop since September of last year. More significantly, there was a 5.7% drop in spending on durable goods. This was the largest drop in 13 years!
Manufacturers are feeling the pinch of higher energy prices; however, they are unable to pass the higher costs along to the customer. As such, profit margins are dwindling, and, as they do, earnings estimates will be reduced.
GM auto sales fell 19%.
The ISM index fell to 50.5 in February.
Kuwait is accepting the 60,000 troops which were intended for Turkey.
Iraq has 120 surface to air missiles and 16 have been destroyed to this point. Yesterday Iraq moved some surface to air missiles in the direction of Kuwait City. Their range is 85 miles, and the U.S could take them out in several seconds.
Today the President gives a talk to the AMA and he will state that his program will not force seniors into managed care. He couldn't even if he so desired.
President Bush Sr spent the majority of his time focusing on foreign policy and the Gulf War. The American people felt he was not in touch with their needs, and thus, he lost the re-election. His son is making the same mistake. He must balance terrorism with the concerns surrounding the economy. The latter is on a precipice which is sitting on very shaky territory.
How do you balance a budget deficit? Oregon says it's easy. You raise $300 million in debt and then take $112 million from an education fund. You thought only CE0s played with the books. Not so.
Monday, March 03, 2003
3/3/03 The Real World
As you probably know, I am not looking to compete with CNBC, CNN, or any other financial news venue. I write this blog for myself, and hopefully my readers will share in the knowledge I have acquired and also attempt to impart. The opinions are solely mine and are extracted without dilution from my guts. The facts are checked by me, and also generated in pure form. As such, you get unadulterated me on a daily basis. Some can't handle that. For this I make no apologies. I see no point in wasting good energy on those with weak knees. Now for the meat and potatoes.
The increased gas prices at the pump are taking its toll. At 7-Eleven people are buying smaller cups of coffee than they did in January, and more individual sodas are being purchased in place of 12-packs. Consumers are buying less premium gasoline. John Keyes, the CEO of 7-Eleven, says "we see the change immediately. A 20-to 30 cent-a-gallon shift at the pump can take as much as $50 from the working person each month." With the increased gas and heating heating costs this winter, families are spending 5% of their budgets on energy rather than 4% at the start of the year. That's the real world. If the President put his hand in his pocket and paid for gas at the pump and for heating bills, he might have a better appreciation and understanding of daily reality.
Joseph's People is a support group for the unemployed at St. Joseph's Roman Catholic Church in Downington, Pa. John Ralston is an Exton, Pa lawyer and told the group "debt collectors are growing more outrageous in their collection efforts. We're seeing this as an epidemic. They will tell you they'll put you in jail. Well, there hasn't been a debtors' prison since 1850. You can't go to jail for being in debt." Many gathered in St. Joseph's parish hall had been out of work for more than a year. That's the real world.
Michigan's budget shortfall takes its toll. Vacated police and fire jobs are frozen, a senior center is closed, a post office may close, lights at government offices are turned off more often, and all in all, up to $2 billion in cuts are necessary to balance the state budget. Few programs will be spared. Nearly 20% of the services provided cannot be afforded. The Taylor, Michigan mayor said "we are on the brink of a fiscal crisis, and not enough people know it. It's right on the horizon." You've got that right, mayor, and the horizon is right on your ass.
There are 170,000 people employed in the 22 agencies comprising Homeland Security. WalMart employs 1.4 billion people and runs like a well-oiled machine. Like I've always stated, the government is the employer of last resort and wins the gold medal in mismanagement.
Because of poor growth prospects on the European horizon, there is pressure on the ECB to cut interest rates. Unfortunately, I don't believe such a reduction will jumpstart demand. It certainly hasn't done a thing in the U.S.
Vivendi will re-organize. They will keep Universal Music, the jewel. That unit is "throwing off cash and contributing more than one billion euros in annual earnings."
Iraq, in a week's time, will provide a new report on VX nerve gas and anthrax stocks. There is one person who is unaware that a war is not happening, and he is George Bush.
Hugh Osmond is offering to buy Six Continents Plc for 7 billion pounds. Six Continents owns the InterContinental and Holiday Inn and Crowne Plaza hotels. Osmond said "I'm sure it will be a long fight." Hilton is also a possible buyer. Marriott should kick the tires.
Close Brothers is not optimistic for the remainder of 2003.
P&G may buy Wella after trying to purchase Nivea.
U.S Airways will end its pension plan. When will U.S. Airways end operations?
There comes a report that terrorists linked to al Qaeda have targeted U.S. military facilities in Pearl Harbor, and that includes nuclear-powered subs and ships. It has been difficult to confirm this report.
On March 15 United Airlines may make a Section 1113 filing, which asks the bankruptcy court to consider voiding the airline's labor agreements. Management and labor remain miles apart on any agreement, and soon no one will need to worry about redeeming frequent flyer miles at United.
Sen. Hillary Clinton "fully supports" President Bush's Iraq policy.
Qatar, a Persian Gulf monarchy with 800,000 people, was chosen for central command joint operations. The shift to Qatar came after Saudi Arabia's population was against having the U.S forces on its soil. Qatar cannot depend on a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia, and now has the U.S to defend this small country which has some of the world's largest natural gas reserves with an oil-rich economy.
Two U.N. health agencies recommend in a report compiled by a panel of 30 international experts that people should get no more than 10% of their calories from sugar. Thank goodness I'm no longer in the sugar business. That was 15 years ago. Wow time flies.
Turkey's stock market plunged after its parliament refused to allow 60,000 U.S troops to be depliyed in Turkey ahead of a possible war with Iraq. The proposal to host U.S troops fell short by three votes, and three vacant parliamentary seats will be filled in elections held on March 9. A second vote would most likely be held after March 9.
I have said this often, and will repeat it again. These are dangerous investing times. Uncertainty is at the forefront. Unless there is a great opportunity with a magnificent risk/reward, please remain on the sidelines.
As you probably know, I am not looking to compete with CNBC, CNN, or any other financial news venue. I write this blog for myself, and hopefully my readers will share in the knowledge I have acquired and also attempt to impart. The opinions are solely mine and are extracted without dilution from my guts. The facts are checked by me, and also generated in pure form. As such, you get unadulterated me on a daily basis. Some can't handle that. For this I make no apologies. I see no point in wasting good energy on those with weak knees. Now for the meat and potatoes.
The increased gas prices at the pump are taking its toll. At 7-Eleven people are buying smaller cups of coffee than they did in January, and more individual sodas are being purchased in place of 12-packs. Consumers are buying less premium gasoline. John Keyes, the CEO of 7-Eleven, says "we see the change immediately. A 20-to 30 cent-a-gallon shift at the pump can take as much as $50 from the working person each month." With the increased gas and heating heating costs this winter, families are spending 5% of their budgets on energy rather than 4% at the start of the year. That's the real world. If the President put his hand in his pocket and paid for gas at the pump and for heating bills, he might have a better appreciation and understanding of daily reality.
Joseph's People is a support group for the unemployed at St. Joseph's Roman Catholic Church in Downington, Pa. John Ralston is an Exton, Pa lawyer and told the group "debt collectors are growing more outrageous in their collection efforts. We're seeing this as an epidemic. They will tell you they'll put you in jail. Well, there hasn't been a debtors' prison since 1850. You can't go to jail for being in debt." Many gathered in St. Joseph's parish hall had been out of work for more than a year. That's the real world.
Michigan's budget shortfall takes its toll. Vacated police and fire jobs are frozen, a senior center is closed, a post office may close, lights at government offices are turned off more often, and all in all, up to $2 billion in cuts are necessary to balance the state budget. Few programs will be spared. Nearly 20% of the services provided cannot be afforded. The Taylor, Michigan mayor said "we are on the brink of a fiscal crisis, and not enough people know it. It's right on the horizon." You've got that right, mayor, and the horizon is right on your ass.
There are 170,000 people employed in the 22 agencies comprising Homeland Security. WalMart employs 1.4 billion people and runs like a well-oiled machine. Like I've always stated, the government is the employer of last resort and wins the gold medal in mismanagement.
Because of poor growth prospects on the European horizon, there is pressure on the ECB to cut interest rates. Unfortunately, I don't believe such a reduction will jumpstart demand. It certainly hasn't done a thing in the U.S.
Vivendi will re-organize. They will keep Universal Music, the jewel. That unit is "throwing off cash and contributing more than one billion euros in annual earnings."
Iraq, in a week's time, will provide a new report on VX nerve gas and anthrax stocks. There is one person who is unaware that a war is not happening, and he is George Bush.
Hugh Osmond is offering to buy Six Continents Plc for 7 billion pounds. Six Continents owns the InterContinental and Holiday Inn and Crowne Plaza hotels. Osmond said "I'm sure it will be a long fight." Hilton is also a possible buyer. Marriott should kick the tires.
Close Brothers is not optimistic for the remainder of 2003.
P&G may buy Wella after trying to purchase Nivea.
U.S Airways will end its pension plan. When will U.S. Airways end operations?
There comes a report that terrorists linked to al Qaeda have targeted U.S. military facilities in Pearl Harbor, and that includes nuclear-powered subs and ships. It has been difficult to confirm this report.
On March 15 United Airlines may make a Section 1113 filing, which asks the bankruptcy court to consider voiding the airline's labor agreements. Management and labor remain miles apart on any agreement, and soon no one will need to worry about redeeming frequent flyer miles at United.
Sen. Hillary Clinton "fully supports" President Bush's Iraq policy.
Qatar, a Persian Gulf monarchy with 800,000 people, was chosen for central command joint operations. The shift to Qatar came after Saudi Arabia's population was against having the U.S forces on its soil. Qatar cannot depend on a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia, and now has the U.S to defend this small country which has some of the world's largest natural gas reserves with an oil-rich economy.
Two U.N. health agencies recommend in a report compiled by a panel of 30 international experts that people should get no more than 10% of their calories from sugar. Thank goodness I'm no longer in the sugar business. That was 15 years ago. Wow time flies.
Turkey's stock market plunged after its parliament refused to allow 60,000 U.S troops to be depliyed in Turkey ahead of a possible war with Iraq. The proposal to host U.S troops fell short by three votes, and three vacant parliamentary seats will be filled in elections held on March 9. A second vote would most likely be held after March 9.
I have said this often, and will repeat it again. These are dangerous investing times. Uncertainty is at the forefront. Unless there is a great opportunity with a magnificent risk/reward, please remain on the sidelines.
Sunday, March 02, 2003
3/2/03 The Right To Voice Dissent
The median price in California statewide for a detached, existing, single-family home in December rose 20% to $338,110 from a year ago. By contrast, the national median price of an existing single-family home in December was $164,000.
In the San Francisco Bay area one-fifth of its office space is vacant. Rent in Silicon Valley for high-tech commercial real estate fell 30% in 2002.
There is no question that sale prices for single-family homes are out of proportion with rents. Low interest rates will not prevent the real estate bubble from bursting. You can count on that.
For February the Dow fell 2.02%, the S&P 500 1.7%, and the Nasdaq was up 1.26%.
Consumer sentiment is at a 9 year low. That sentiment will negatively impact consumer spending. You can count on that too.
Arafat: "the Israeli government is the first inciter for the war against Iraq...Israel considers the war against Iraq as its war against the whole Arab world...Israel wants to use the war against Iraq to escalate its military actions against the Palestinian people." Arafat is entitled to his opinion. In my view, Arafat's head would make for a good hood ornament on a tank.
Ocean Spray rejected an $800 million hostile bid from Northland.
On March 2, 1877 Rutherford B. Hayes was declared the winner of the 1876 presidential election over the democrat Samuel Tilden even though Tilden had won the popular vote. Does anyone remember what Hayes accomplished during his presidency?
In Washington, DC Black Hawk helicopters whir over the District, missile launchers surround the city, and police patrol with assault rifles and carry portable chemical detectors. I have a feeling this is a long range program.
Oil production in Venezuela now tops 2 million barrels a day. Normal is 3.1 million. It is estimated that Venezuela's income from oil will fall 50% from last year's $11.5 billion. The loss of 16,000 experienced oil workers will hamper Venezuela for years.
State Farm Insurance is making progress. In 2001 they lost $5 billion. In 2002 they lost $2.8 billion. This was despite raising rates on auto policies by 10% and 19% for homeowners' insurance. Look for more increases this year. I would not want to use this company's services.
Toni Smith is a senior forward at Manhattanville College, a short ride from my old office in Purchase, N.Y. Toni Smith is protesting against the war in Iraq and the widening gap between rich and poor in the U.S. Her protest consists of turning her back from the U.S. flag while the national anthem is played prior to the start of a game. The right to protest is one of the things guaranteed by our Constitution and our Bill of Rights.
On average March tends to be a down month for the stock market. Last March, howver, the Dow gained 300 points. Of course, the rise was short-lived.
Heavy rains, nightclub fires, a poor economy, and fear of terrorist attacks figure to make this a lousy Mardi Gras season in New Orleans.
Bretton Barber, a 16 year old high school student in Dearborn Heights, Michigan, was sent home for wearing a t-shirt that labels President Bush an "international terrorist".
Public schools in 9 states and with 9.6 million students have until March 10 to stop reciting the Pledge of Allegiance due to a ruling by a U.S. Appeals Court-unless overturned by a higher court.
The median price in California statewide for a detached, existing, single-family home in December rose 20% to $338,110 from a year ago. By contrast, the national median price of an existing single-family home in December was $164,000.
In the San Francisco Bay area one-fifth of its office space is vacant. Rent in Silicon Valley for high-tech commercial real estate fell 30% in 2002.
There is no question that sale prices for single-family homes are out of proportion with rents. Low interest rates will not prevent the real estate bubble from bursting. You can count on that.
For February the Dow fell 2.02%, the S&P 500 1.7%, and the Nasdaq was up 1.26%.
Consumer sentiment is at a 9 year low. That sentiment will negatively impact consumer spending. You can count on that too.
Arafat: "the Israeli government is the first inciter for the war against Iraq...Israel considers the war against Iraq as its war against the whole Arab world...Israel wants to use the war against Iraq to escalate its military actions against the Palestinian people." Arafat is entitled to his opinion. In my view, Arafat's head would make for a good hood ornament on a tank.
Ocean Spray rejected an $800 million hostile bid from Northland.
On March 2, 1877 Rutherford B. Hayes was declared the winner of the 1876 presidential election over the democrat Samuel Tilden even though Tilden had won the popular vote. Does anyone remember what Hayes accomplished during his presidency?
In Washington, DC Black Hawk helicopters whir over the District, missile launchers surround the city, and police patrol with assault rifles and carry portable chemical detectors. I have a feeling this is a long range program.
Oil production in Venezuela now tops 2 million barrels a day. Normal is 3.1 million. It is estimated that Venezuela's income from oil will fall 50% from last year's $11.5 billion. The loss of 16,000 experienced oil workers will hamper Venezuela for years.
State Farm Insurance is making progress. In 2001 they lost $5 billion. In 2002 they lost $2.8 billion. This was despite raising rates on auto policies by 10% and 19% for homeowners' insurance. Look for more increases this year. I would not want to use this company's services.
Toni Smith is a senior forward at Manhattanville College, a short ride from my old office in Purchase, N.Y. Toni Smith is protesting against the war in Iraq and the widening gap between rich and poor in the U.S. Her protest consists of turning her back from the U.S. flag while the national anthem is played prior to the start of a game. The right to protest is one of the things guaranteed by our Constitution and our Bill of Rights.
On average March tends to be a down month for the stock market. Last March, howver, the Dow gained 300 points. Of course, the rise was short-lived.
Heavy rains, nightclub fires, a poor economy, and fear of terrorist attacks figure to make this a lousy Mardi Gras season in New Orleans.
Bretton Barber, a 16 year old high school student in Dearborn Heights, Michigan, was sent home for wearing a t-shirt that labels President Bush an "international terrorist".
Public schools in 9 states and with 9.6 million students have until March 10 to stop reciting the Pledge of Allegiance due to a ruling by a U.S. Appeals Court-unless overturned by a higher court.
Saturday, March 01, 2003
3/1/03 The Threat Assessment - Must Reading For Saturday
The Department of Transportation is proposing to establish a Privacy Act of Records which will classify all commercial airline passengers as suspects of terrorism and a threat to national security. No court order will be required to check your bank balance and credit card activity prior to you boarding a plane. This is being done under the heading of risk assessment and is called the threat assessment process. Delta Airlines has agreed to be the first airline to implement this process. I will never fly Delta again, and urge all Americans to do the same.
Pastor Martin Niemoller, Dachau, 1944: "In Germany they first came for the Communists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Communist. Then they came for the Jews, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Jew. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a trade unionist. Then they came for the Catholics, and I didn't speak up because I was a Protestant. Then they came for me- and by that time no one was left to speak up."
Abraham Lincoln: "Those who deny freedom to others, deserve it not for themselves; and, under a just God, can not long retain it."
Thomas Jefferson in a 1787 letter to James Madison: "A little rebellion, now and then, is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical."
Ezra Taft Benson: "Man is superior to government and should remain master over it, not the other way around."
Thomas Jefferson: " That government is best which governs the least, because its people discipline themselves....the course of history shows that as government grows, liberty decreases."
Abraham Lincoln: "We all declare for libery; but in using the same word we do not mean all the same thing. With some the word libery may mean for each man to do as he pleases with himself, and the product of his labor; while with others, the same word may mean for some men to do as they please with other men, and the product of other men's labor. Here are two, not only different, but incompatible things, called by the same name-liberty. And it follows that each of the things is, by the respective parties, called by two different and incompatible names-liberty and tyranny.
For the first time in a recent poll less than 50% of registered voters would support Bush for re-election.
Crude oil inventories in the U.S. are much lower than they were during the Gulf War.
Oil price increases pushed inflation to 2.3% in February in the E.U. The ECB seeks to keep inflation below 2%.
Canada's economy grew at an annualized 1.6% rate in the fourth quarter. The consumer price index report showed overall inflation at 4 1/2% in January, the highest level in more than 11 years.
Switzerland's second largest bank, Credit Suisse, will cut 1,250 jobs. Clariant, a chemical company, will cut 1700 jobs. The national airline, Swiss, will cut 700 jobs. Switzerland's GDP grew by 0.1% in 2002, the lowest in 9 years.
Fitch Ratings expects bankruptcies to increase by approximately 8% in 2003 to 1.65 million.
The magazine Red Herring is closing.
The number of homes in foreclosure leaped by 23% in San Francisco in 2002. Nationwide home loans in foreclosure were at a record high last year. This will become a major story in 2003.
About 1 in 5 jobs in California's Santa Clara County have been lost since the height of the boom only 26 months ago.
Now for some lighter stuff. For some reason I keep getting tons of requests asking for the names of my horses. They are Melenka, Dewey, Napersianka, and Kapryscious. Dewey is a thoroughbred and the others are arabians.
Lastly, many have written that I seem to be a person they could like very much but that, for some reason, they feel uncomfortable. Let me say that I write this blog and say what I say because either it's the truth or an opinion I hold which I believe has a foundation in the truth. I am not asking you to breathe the same air I breathe. My love ones share that with me.
The Department of Transportation is proposing to establish a Privacy Act of Records which will classify all commercial airline passengers as suspects of terrorism and a threat to national security. No court order will be required to check your bank balance and credit card activity prior to you boarding a plane. This is being done under the heading of risk assessment and is called the threat assessment process. Delta Airlines has agreed to be the first airline to implement this process. I will never fly Delta again, and urge all Americans to do the same.
Pastor Martin Niemoller, Dachau, 1944: "In Germany they first came for the Communists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Communist. Then they came for the Jews, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Jew. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a trade unionist. Then they came for the Catholics, and I didn't speak up because I was a Protestant. Then they came for me- and by that time no one was left to speak up."
Abraham Lincoln: "Those who deny freedom to others, deserve it not for themselves; and, under a just God, can not long retain it."
Thomas Jefferson in a 1787 letter to James Madison: "A little rebellion, now and then, is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical."
Ezra Taft Benson: "Man is superior to government and should remain master over it, not the other way around."
Thomas Jefferson: " That government is best which governs the least, because its people discipline themselves....the course of history shows that as government grows, liberty decreases."
Abraham Lincoln: "We all declare for libery; but in using the same word we do not mean all the same thing. With some the word libery may mean for each man to do as he pleases with himself, and the product of his labor; while with others, the same word may mean for some men to do as they please with other men, and the product of other men's labor. Here are two, not only different, but incompatible things, called by the same name-liberty. And it follows that each of the things is, by the respective parties, called by two different and incompatible names-liberty and tyranny.
For the first time in a recent poll less than 50% of registered voters would support Bush for re-election.
Crude oil inventories in the U.S. are much lower than they were during the Gulf War.
Oil price increases pushed inflation to 2.3% in February in the E.U. The ECB seeks to keep inflation below 2%.
Canada's economy grew at an annualized 1.6% rate in the fourth quarter. The consumer price index report showed overall inflation at 4 1/2% in January, the highest level in more than 11 years.
Switzerland's second largest bank, Credit Suisse, will cut 1,250 jobs. Clariant, a chemical company, will cut 1700 jobs. The national airline, Swiss, will cut 700 jobs. Switzerland's GDP grew by 0.1% in 2002, the lowest in 9 years.
Fitch Ratings expects bankruptcies to increase by approximately 8% in 2003 to 1.65 million.
The magazine Red Herring is closing.
The number of homes in foreclosure leaped by 23% in San Francisco in 2002. Nationwide home loans in foreclosure were at a record high last year. This will become a major story in 2003.
About 1 in 5 jobs in California's Santa Clara County have been lost since the height of the boom only 26 months ago.
Now for some lighter stuff. For some reason I keep getting tons of requests asking for the names of my horses. They are Melenka, Dewey, Napersianka, and Kapryscious. Dewey is a thoroughbred and the others are arabians.
Lastly, many have written that I seem to be a person they could like very much but that, for some reason, they feel uncomfortable. Let me say that I write this blog and say what I say because either it's the truth or an opinion I hold which I believe has a foundation in the truth. I am not asking you to breathe the same air I breathe. My love ones share that with me.
3/1/03 The Threat Assessment - Must Reading For Saturday
The Department of Transportation is proposing to establish a Privacy Act of Records which will classify all commercial airline passengers as suspects of terrorism and a threat to national security. No court order will be required to check your bank balance and credit card activity prior to you boarding a plane. This is being done under the heading of risk assessment and is called the threat assessment process. Delta Airlines has agreed to be the first airline to implement this process. I will never fly Delta again, and urge all Americans to do the same.
Pastor Martin Niemoller, Dachau, 1944: "In Germany they first came for the Communists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Communist. Then they came for the Jews, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Jew. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a trade unionist. Then they came for the Catholics, and I didn't speak up because I was a Protestant. Then they came for me- and by that time no one was left to speak up."
Abraham Lincoln: "Those who deny freedom to others, deserve it not for themselves; and, under a just God, can not long retain it."
Thomas Jefferson in a 1787 letter to James Madison: "A little rebellion, now and then, is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical."
Ezra Taft Benson: "Man is superior to government and should remain master over it, not the other way around."
Thomas Jefferson: " That government is best which governs the least, because its people discipline themselves....the course of history shows that as government grows, liberty decreases."
Abraham Lincoln: "We all declare for libery; but in using the same word we do not mean all the same thing. With some the word libery may mean for each man to do as he pleases with himself, and the product of his labor; while with others, the same word may mean for some men to do as they please with other men, and the product of other men's labor. Here are two, not only different, but incompatible things, called by the same name-liberty. And it follows that each of the things is, by the respective parties, called by two different and incompatible names-liberty and tyranny.
For the first time in a recent poll less than 50% of registered voters would support Bush for re-election.
Crude oil inventories in the U.S. are much lower than they were during the Gulf War.
Oil price increases pushed inflation to 2.3% in February in the E.U. The ECB seeks to keep inflation below 2%.
Canada's economy grew at an annualized 1.6% rate in the fourth quarter. The consumer price index report showed overall inflation at 4 1/2% in January, the highest level in more than 11 years.
Switzerland's second largest bank, Credit Suisse, will cut 1.250 jobs. Clariant, a chemical company, will cut 1700 jobs. The national airline, Swiss, will cut 700 jobs. Switzerland's GDP grew by 0.1% in 2002, the lowest in 9 years.
Fitch Ratings expects bankruptcies to increase by approximately 8% in 2003 to 1.65 million.
The magazine Red Herring is closing.
The number of homes in foreclosure leaped by 23% in San Francisco in 2002. Nationwide home loans in foreclosure were at a record high last year. This will become a major story in 2003.
About 1 in 5 jobs in California's Santa Clara County have been lost since the height of the boom only 26 months ago.
Now for some lighter stuff. For some reason I keep getting tons of requests asking for the names of my horses. They are Melenka, Dewey, Napersianka, and Kapryscious. Dewey is a thoroughbred and the others are arabians.
Lastly, many have written that I seem to be a person they could like very much but that, for some reason, they feel uncomfortable. Let me say that I write this blog and say what I say because either it's the truth or an opinion I hold which I believe has a foundation in the truth. I am not asking you to breathe the same air I breathe. My love ones share that with me.
The Department of Transportation is proposing to establish a Privacy Act of Records which will classify all commercial airline passengers as suspects of terrorism and a threat to national security. No court order will be required to check your bank balance and credit card activity prior to you boarding a plane. This is being done under the heading of risk assessment and is called the threat assessment process. Delta Airlines has agreed to be the first airline to implement this process. I will never fly Delta again, and urge all Americans to do the same.
Pastor Martin Niemoller, Dachau, 1944: "In Germany they first came for the Communists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Communist. Then they came for the Jews, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Jew. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a trade unionist. Then they came for the Catholics, and I didn't speak up because I was a Protestant. Then they came for me- and by that time no one was left to speak up."
Abraham Lincoln: "Those who deny freedom to others, deserve it not for themselves; and, under a just God, can not long retain it."
Thomas Jefferson in a 1787 letter to James Madison: "A little rebellion, now and then, is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical."
Ezra Taft Benson: "Man is superior to government and should remain master over it, not the other way around."
Thomas Jefferson: " That government is best which governs the least, because its people discipline themselves....the course of history shows that as government grows, liberty decreases."
Abraham Lincoln: "We all declare for libery; but in using the same word we do not mean all the same thing. With some the word libery may mean for each man to do as he pleases with himself, and the product of his labor; while with others, the same word may mean for some men to do as they please with other men, and the product of other men's labor. Here are two, not only different, but incompatible things, called by the same name-liberty. And it follows that each of the things is, by the respective parties, called by two different and incompatible names-liberty and tyranny.
For the first time in a recent poll less than 50% of registered voters would support Bush for re-election.
Crude oil inventories in the U.S. are much lower than they were during the Gulf War.
Oil price increases pushed inflation to 2.3% in February in the E.U. The ECB seeks to keep inflation below 2%.
Canada's economy grew at an annualized 1.6% rate in the fourth quarter. The consumer price index report showed overall inflation at 4 1/2% in January, the highest level in more than 11 years.
Switzerland's second largest bank, Credit Suisse, will cut 1.250 jobs. Clariant, a chemical company, will cut 1700 jobs. The national airline, Swiss, will cut 700 jobs. Switzerland's GDP grew by 0.1% in 2002, the lowest in 9 years.
Fitch Ratings expects bankruptcies to increase by approximately 8% in 2003 to 1.65 million.
The magazine Red Herring is closing.
The number of homes in foreclosure leaped by 23% in San Francisco in 2002. Nationwide home loans in foreclosure were at a record high last year. This will become a major story in 2003.
About 1 in 5 jobs in California's Santa Clara County have been lost since the height of the boom only 26 months ago.
Now for some lighter stuff. For some reason I keep getting tons of requests asking for the names of my horses. They are Melenka, Dewey, Napersianka, and Kapryscious. Dewey is a thoroughbred and the others are arabians.
Lastly, many have written that I seem to be a person they could like very much but that, for some reason, they feel uncomfortable. Let me say that I write this blog and say what I say because either it's the truth or an opinion I hold which I believe has a foundation in the truth. I am not asking you to breathe the same air I breathe. My love ones share that with me.
3/1/03 The Threat Assessment - Must Reading For Saturday
The Department of Transportation is proposing to establish a Privacy Act of Records which will classify all commercial airline passengers as suspects of terrorism and a threat to national security. No court order will be required to check your bank balance and credit card activity prior to you boarding a plane. This is being done under the heading of risk assessment and is called the threat assessment process. Delta Airlines has agreed to be the first airline to implement this process. I will never fly Delta again, and urge all Americans to do the same.
Pastor Martin Niemoller, Dachau, 1944: "In Germany they first came for the Communists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Communist. Then they came for the Jews, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Jew. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a trade unionist. Then they came for the Catholics, and I didn't speak up because I was a Protestant. Then they came for me- and by that time no one was left to speak up."
Abraham Lincoln: "Those who deny freedom to others, deserve it not for themselves; and, under a just God, can not long retain it."
Thomas Jefferson in a 1787 letter to James Madison: "A little rebellion, now and then, is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical."
Ezra Taft Benson: "Man is superior to government and should remain master over it, not the other way around."
Thomas Jefferson: " That government is best which governs the least, because its people discipline themselves....the course of history shows that as government grows, liberty decreases."
Abraham Lincoln: "We all declare for libery; but in using the same word we do not mean all the same thing. With some the word libery may mean for each man to do as he pleases with himself, and the product of his labor; while with others, the same word may mean for some men to do as they please with other men, and the product of other men's labor. Here are two, not only different, but incompatible things, called by the same name-liberty. And it follows that each of the things is, by the respective parties, called by two different and incompatible names-liberty and tyranny.
For the first time in a recent poll less than 50% of registered voters would support Bush for re-election.
Crude oil inventories in the U.S. are much lower than they were during the Gulf War.
Oil price increases pushed inflation to 2.3% in February in the E.U. The ECB seeks to keep inflation below 2%.
Canada's economy grew at an annualized 1.6% rate in the fourth quarter. The consumer price index report showed overall inflation at 4 1/2% in January, the highest level in more than 11 years.
Switzerland's second largest bank, Credit Suisse, will cut 1.250 jobs. Clariant, a chemical company, will cut 1700 jobs. The national airline, Swiss, will cut 700 jobs. Switzerland's GDP grew by 0.1% in 2002, the lowest in 9 years.
Fitch Ratings expects bankruptcies to increase by approximately 8% in 2003 to 1.65 million.
The magazine Red Herring is closing.
The number of homes in foreclosure leaped by 23% in San Francisco in 2002. Nationwide home loans in foreclosure were at a record high last year. This will become a major story in 2003.
About 1 in 5 jobs in California's Santa Clara County have been lost since the height of the boom only 26 months ago.
Now for some lighter stuff. For some reason I keep getting tons of requests asking for the names of my horses. They are Melenka, Dewey, Napersianka, and Kapryscious. Dewey is a thoroughbred and the others are arabians.
Lastly, many have written that I seem to be a person they could like very much but that, for some reason, they feel uncomfortable. Let me say that I write this blog and say what I say because either it's the truth or an opinion I hold which I believe has a foundation in the truth. I am not asking you to breathe the same air I breathe. My love ones share that with me.
The Department of Transportation is proposing to establish a Privacy Act of Records which will classify all commercial airline passengers as suspects of terrorism and a threat to national security. No court order will be required to check your bank balance and credit card activity prior to you boarding a plane. This is being done under the heading of risk assessment and is called the threat assessment process. Delta Airlines has agreed to be the first airline to implement this process. I will never fly Delta again, and urge all Americans to do the same.
Pastor Martin Niemoller, Dachau, 1944: "In Germany they first came for the Communists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Communist. Then they came for the Jews, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Jew. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a trade unionist. Then they came for the Catholics, and I didn't speak up because I was a Protestant. Then they came for me- and by that time no one was left to speak up."
Abraham Lincoln: "Those who deny freedom to others, deserve it not for themselves; and, under a just God, can not long retain it."
Thomas Jefferson in a 1787 letter to James Madison: "A little rebellion, now and then, is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical."
Ezra Taft Benson: "Man is superior to government and should remain master over it, not the other way around."
Thomas Jefferson: " That government is best which governs the least, because its people discipline themselves....the course of history shows that as government grows, liberty decreases."
Abraham Lincoln: "We all declare for libery; but in using the same word we do not mean all the same thing. With some the word libery may mean for each man to do as he pleases with himself, and the product of his labor; while with others, the same word may mean for some men to do as they please with other men, and the product of other men's labor. Here are two, not only different, but incompatible things, called by the same name-liberty. And it follows that each of the things is, by the respective parties, called by two different and incompatible names-liberty and tyranny.
For the first time in a recent poll less than 50% of registered voters would support Bush for re-election.
Crude oil inventories in the U.S. are much lower than they were during the Gulf War.
Oil price increases pushed inflation to 2.3% in February in the E.U. The ECB seeks to keep inflation below 2%.
Canada's economy grew at an annualized 1.6% rate in the fourth quarter. The consumer price index report showed overall inflation at 4 1/2% in January, the highest level in more than 11 years.
Switzerland's second largest bank, Credit Suisse, will cut 1.250 jobs. Clariant, a chemical company, will cut 1700 jobs. The national airline, Swiss, will cut 700 jobs. Switzerland's GDP grew by 0.1% in 2002, the lowest in 9 years.
Fitch Ratings expects bankruptcies to increase by approximately 8% in 2003 to 1.65 million.
The magazine Red Herring is closing.
The number of homes in foreclosure leaped by 23% in San Francisco in 2002. Nationwide home loans in foreclosure were at a record high last year. This will become a major story in 2003.
About 1 in 5 jobs in California's Santa Clara County have been lost since the height of the boom only 26 months ago.
Now for some lighter stuff. For some reason I keep getting tons of requests asking for the names of my horses. They are Melenka, Dewey, Napersianka, and Kapryscious. Dewey is a thoroughbred and the others are arabians.
Lastly, many have written that I seem to be a person they could like very much but that, for some reason, they feel uncomfortable. Let me say that I write this blog and say what I say because either it's the truth or an opinion I hold which I believe has a foundation in the truth. I am not asking you to breathe the same air I breathe. My love ones share that with me.
Friday, February 28, 2003
2/28/03 The Duct Tape Terror Alert Reduced To Masking Tape
Jobless claims rose 11,000 to 417,000 last week, and this was the highest level of the year. Economists had been predicting a decline. We know how accurate their forecasting is. There are approximately 3.4 million people who continue to collect state jobless benefits. 30% of consumers state jobs are "hard to get".
Anne Frank: "How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world."
Microsoft signed a deal to give the Chinese government controlled access to its source code. Microsoft has pledged to invest $750 in China over three years.
Sega is involved in merger talks with Sammy Corp. of Japan. It's reported Microsoft and Electronic Arts may be interested in buying all or part of Sega. If I were Microsoft, I'd think twice about a purchase. Microsoft has made awful investments which have cost the company billions. Recently, Sega reduced its profit forecast by 90%.
Iraq could begin dismantling al-Samoud 2 missiles by Saturday. I have been a lone voice since last Fall stating that there wouldn't be a war in Iraq.
Normally January produces a large money inflow into mutual funds. This year $466 million was pulled out of stock funds, and is the first January outflow since 1990. In January 2002 almost $20 billion came into stock funds.
Unemployment in Japan climbed to a postwar high.
U.S. oil prices surge to almost $40. Look out for more price increases at the pump. Opec said there isn't much room for extra production to meet demands. Like I would believe them!
The current shortage of natural gas will not be a short-run problem.
How can we buy Mexico's vote on the Iraq resolution? What will it take? 80% of the Mexican people are against the war. It's called border blackmail.
Patrick Ewing's number 33 will be retired tonight in the Garden.
Members of Iraq's northernmost Republican Guard division (the Democratic guard was defeated in the last election which didn't take place) have moved south to Tikrit. They've bought along their suntan protection and bathing suits. The rumor is there can't be a war in Iraq until Osama bin Laden is located. Thus, a war is unlikely prior to 2050.
GM has slashed engineering costs by 48% in 6 years.
The INS has denied access to the press for months while Haitian detainees are being held. These are people who made the crossing from Haiti to Key Biscayne, and include many women and children. Maybe the INS would like to be prevented from outside air for 4 months. With a little voodoo, maybe the INS will disappear.
More than 1 out of every 5 families making $75,000 a year or more has at least one member without health insurance.
The Kyoto Protocol is a 1997 treaty which calls for businesses to reduce emissions to pre-1990 levels. The Bush Administration repudiated the treaty at the national level. However, the states are moving forward on the treaty. The libertarian Heartland Institute suggests the costs for consumers and businesses would range from $1.5 billion in Vermont to $82 billion in California.
Jed Bush's twin-engine Beechcraft King Air was hit by lightning but landed safely despite a hole in the wing. No one was injured.
Oprah became the first black woman on the Forbes list of billionaires. Good for her.
The next reality show will be called Adopt-A-Tyrant.
Palm to layoff 200 workers or 19% of their workforce.
Dallas dumps Emmitt Smith. It reminds me of SF and Joe Montana.
Anyone want to buy the Atlanta Braves? I didn't think so.
Jobless claims rose 11,000 to 417,000 last week, and this was the highest level of the year. Economists had been predicting a decline. We know how accurate their forecasting is. There are approximately 3.4 million people who continue to collect state jobless benefits. 30% of consumers state jobs are "hard to get".
Anne Frank: "How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world."
Microsoft signed a deal to give the Chinese government controlled access to its source code. Microsoft has pledged to invest $750 in China over three years.
Sega is involved in merger talks with Sammy Corp. of Japan. It's reported Microsoft and Electronic Arts may be interested in buying all or part of Sega. If I were Microsoft, I'd think twice about a purchase. Microsoft has made awful investments which have cost the company billions. Recently, Sega reduced its profit forecast by 90%.
Iraq could begin dismantling al-Samoud 2 missiles by Saturday. I have been a lone voice since last Fall stating that there wouldn't be a war in Iraq.
Normally January produces a large money inflow into mutual funds. This year $466 million was pulled out of stock funds, and is the first January outflow since 1990. In January 2002 almost $20 billion came into stock funds.
Unemployment in Japan climbed to a postwar high.
U.S. oil prices surge to almost $40. Look out for more price increases at the pump. Opec said there isn't much room for extra production to meet demands. Like I would believe them!
The current shortage of natural gas will not be a short-run problem.
How can we buy Mexico's vote on the Iraq resolution? What will it take? 80% of the Mexican people are against the war. It's called border blackmail.
Patrick Ewing's number 33 will be retired tonight in the Garden.
Members of Iraq's northernmost Republican Guard division (the Democratic guard was defeated in the last election which didn't take place) have moved south to Tikrit. They've bought along their suntan protection and bathing suits. The rumor is there can't be a war in Iraq until Osama bin Laden is located. Thus, a war is unlikely prior to 2050.
GM has slashed engineering costs by 48% in 6 years.
The INS has denied access to the press for months while Haitian detainees are being held. These are people who made the crossing from Haiti to Key Biscayne, and include many women and children. Maybe the INS would like to be prevented from outside air for 4 months. With a little voodoo, maybe the INS will disappear.
More than 1 out of every 5 families making $75,000 a year or more has at least one member without health insurance.
The Kyoto Protocol is a 1997 treaty which calls for businesses to reduce emissions to pre-1990 levels. The Bush Administration repudiated the treaty at the national level. However, the states are moving forward on the treaty. The libertarian Heartland Institute suggests the costs for consumers and businesses would range from $1.5 billion in Vermont to $82 billion in California.
Jed Bush's twin-engine Beechcraft King Air was hit by lightning but landed safely despite a hole in the wing. No one was injured.
Oprah became the first black woman on the Forbes list of billionaires. Good for her.
The next reality show will be called Adopt-A-Tyrant.
Palm to layoff 200 workers or 19% of their workforce.
Dallas dumps Emmitt Smith. It reminds me of SF and Joe Montana.
Anyone want to buy the Atlanta Braves? I didn't think so.
Thursday, February 27, 2003
2/27/03 The Real War And We're Getting Crushed
In the early part of 1990 I gave a talk on the coming demise of the white American male in the workplace. My audience thought I came from another planet. I did. It was and is still called the planet reality. To be successful day in and day out requires thinking and planning ahead- not just for tomorrow but years ahead. One must position themselves prior to the flood gates being opened. Over the last several years I have provided insights into the coming housing boom, and buying housing stocks when no one wanted them. The same is true with oil drilling, natural gas, gold, and, in reverse, the overpriced stock market. It was 13 years ago that I warned of the coming outsourcing boom, and to pay particular attention to India and China. Today we have a $125 billion annual trade deficit with China. India has 520,000 IT engineers and starting salaries are $5000-10,000. India's IT spending is growing at a 23% annual rate, and China's could grow by 18% in 2003. The U.S. has lost the manufacturing war, and now we are losing the knowledge war. If you wait for the Silicon Valley to return, you will be waiting for the Robert E. Lee. We are getting crushed, and it will get worse.
Results from the recent Pew Research Center poll find 43% now approve of the president's economic policy (I didn't know we had one. Glenn Hubbard just resigned) and 48% disapprove. His overall job approval dropped to 54%. The trend is clearly downward. At this rate Hillary Clinton will be your next president.
Two days ago I mentioned the consumer confidence level plunging 15 points to 64 in Frebruary. Analysts had been predicting a reading of 77. I guess they are a bit out of touch.
Divine Inc. filed for chapter 11 after burning thru about $1 billion in less than 4 years. Naturally they never earned a dime.
Spiegel warns they are running out of cash. They also own Eddie Bauer.
Crude oil prices rose to a 13 year high as inventories dropped to a 28 year low. Distillate inventories are at their lowest level in 3 years.
Canada is the largest buyer of U.S. goods and services, and Canada is the leading provider of oil and natural gas for the U.S. Recognition for Canada needs to improve big time.
Japan's Nikkei falls to a 20 year low.
The yen is trading at a 6 month high of 117 vs the dollar.
Our treaty with the Mexican government provides $345 billion in social security payments for Mexicans who have reportedly worked legally in the U.S. Maybe someone should do a bit of homework on all the back interest and principal the Mexican government owes going back to 1850. Additionally, the Mexican oil company, Pemex, was formed from confiscated U.S. oil company assets back in 1936. Before we pay Mexico a penny, they should cough up the billions they owe to Americans and U.S. companies.
The pilots say American Airlines will make a bankruptcy filing by May. Time will tell.
Boeing stock sank to an 8 year low. Why did the drop take so long to occur?
After criticizing Larry Lindsey for his remarks that a war with Iraq could cost $100 billion, the Administration acknowledged that amount would be about right. That means it will be higher.
Fred Rogers died of cancer at the age of 74. For more than 30 years he was a "neighborhood" delight.
In the early part of 1990 I gave a talk on the coming demise of the white American male in the workplace. My audience thought I came from another planet. I did. It was and is still called the planet reality. To be successful day in and day out requires thinking and planning ahead- not just for tomorrow but years ahead. One must position themselves prior to the flood gates being opened. Over the last several years I have provided insights into the coming housing boom, and buying housing stocks when no one wanted them. The same is true with oil drilling, natural gas, gold, and, in reverse, the overpriced stock market. It was 13 years ago that I warned of the coming outsourcing boom, and to pay particular attention to India and China. Today we have a $125 billion annual trade deficit with China. India has 520,000 IT engineers and starting salaries are $5000-10,000. India's IT spending is growing at a 23% annual rate, and China's could grow by 18% in 2003. The U.S. has lost the manufacturing war, and now we are losing the knowledge war. If you wait for the Silicon Valley to return, you will be waiting for the Robert E. Lee. We are getting crushed, and it will get worse.
Results from the recent Pew Research Center poll find 43% now approve of the president's economic policy (I didn't know we had one. Glenn Hubbard just resigned) and 48% disapprove. His overall job approval dropped to 54%. The trend is clearly downward. At this rate Hillary Clinton will be your next president.
Two days ago I mentioned the consumer confidence level plunging 15 points to 64 in Frebruary. Analysts had been predicting a reading of 77. I guess they are a bit out of touch.
Divine Inc. filed for chapter 11 after burning thru about $1 billion in less than 4 years. Naturally they never earned a dime.
Spiegel warns they are running out of cash. They also own Eddie Bauer.
Crude oil prices rose to a 13 year high as inventories dropped to a 28 year low. Distillate inventories are at their lowest level in 3 years.
Canada is the largest buyer of U.S. goods and services, and Canada is the leading provider of oil and natural gas for the U.S. Recognition for Canada needs to improve big time.
Japan's Nikkei falls to a 20 year low.
The yen is trading at a 6 month high of 117 vs the dollar.
Our treaty with the Mexican government provides $345 billion in social security payments for Mexicans who have reportedly worked legally in the U.S. Maybe someone should do a bit of homework on all the back interest and principal the Mexican government owes going back to 1850. Additionally, the Mexican oil company, Pemex, was formed from confiscated U.S. oil company assets back in 1936. Before we pay Mexico a penny, they should cough up the billions they owe to Americans and U.S. companies.
The pilots say American Airlines will make a bankruptcy filing by May. Time will tell.
Boeing stock sank to an 8 year low. Why did the drop take so long to occur?
After criticizing Larry Lindsey for his remarks that a war with Iraq could cost $100 billion, the Administration acknowledged that amount would be about right. That means it will be higher.
Fred Rogers died of cancer at the age of 74. For more than 30 years he was a "neighborhood" delight.
Wednesday, February 26, 2003
2/26/03 The Waffle House
We agree to send thousands and thousands of tons of provisions to N. Korea while there are bread lines in the U.S. I think it should be mandatory for every individual in Congress and all White House inhabitants and staff members to stand on a bread line here before food leaves this country for foreign lands. In my view, all Americans live and breathe together as one. We are only as strong as the weakest soul.
Energy Secretary Abraham: the government's emergency oil stocks "should not be used to address price fluctuations." How about shortages resulting from the Venezuelan strike? Abraham is a perfect cabinet member. He talks stupid.
General Eric Shinseki, Army chief of staff, on discussing the amount of U.S. troops necessary to occupy Iraq during reconstruction: "what's been mobilized to this point- something on the order of several hundred thousand soldiers- is probably the figure that would be required." I say an international consortium of nations should provide reconstruction money and Hans Blix can be stationed in Iraq to supervise reconstruction. He's a formidable building inspector.
I was kind when I said waffle house. Bush has made a big deal of his savings and retirement proposals, and, in particular, eliminating the tax on dividends. Now he is backing away from the proposals- just like everything else. It would be nice if just once I'd see a government official walk the talk. Waffle this!!!!!
Now for the good news.
HP had disapppointing first quarter sales and expects lackluster results for the second quarter.
Britain's insurance company, Aviva, had a profit drop due to poor returns on its global life insurance business, and said 2003 would be more of the same.
Swiss Re, the world's second biggest reinsurer, announced a loss and cut its dividend for the first time since 1906(SF earthquake).
Germany's economy is stagnating. Spain's growth slows due to an export slump. UK's economic growth is the slowest in 11 years.
Roche suffers a record fourth quarter loss of $30 billion.
Abbey halves its dividend as losses mount.
Terra writes down the value of Lycos. Finally.
Argentina's economy dropped 10% in the past year and consumer prices jumped 40%. Jimmy Carter must be their economic advisor.
About 10,000 of NYC's 80,000 teachers are uncertified. 6600 are expected to get certified for the coming new school year. The remainder will be terminated.
Talking about termination, Saddam Hussein said he'd rather die than leave Iraq. When he dies, doesn't he leave Iraq?
After all the posturing, the U.S will provide Turkey with the $30 billion to cover potential losses from a possible Iraq war. This could have been agreed upon in 5 minutes weeks ago.
800 people are registered for the TED at the Monterey California Center. It starts today and runs for four days. Hopefully some innovative technology will be introduced at the conference.
Have you considered this fact? The U.S. makes up 6% of the world's population and we try to control/police/influence the remaining 94%. With that type of ratio- 6 to 94- is it surprising that we are unsuccessful in this endeavor?
Yesterday, during the final 30 minutes of trading, the market rallied and erased many statistical losses. The reason for the rally- there was a rumor on floor of peace in Iraq. Prior to yesterday the "smart money" was buying stocks based on war. Now the "smart money" is buying stocks on peace rumors. I wish someone would make up their mind. It sounds like another waffle house.
We agree to send thousands and thousands of tons of provisions to N. Korea while there are bread lines in the U.S. I think it should be mandatory for every individual in Congress and all White House inhabitants and staff members to stand on a bread line here before food leaves this country for foreign lands. In my view, all Americans live and breathe together as one. We are only as strong as the weakest soul.
Energy Secretary Abraham: the government's emergency oil stocks "should not be used to address price fluctuations." How about shortages resulting from the Venezuelan strike? Abraham is a perfect cabinet member. He talks stupid.
General Eric Shinseki, Army chief of staff, on discussing the amount of U.S. troops necessary to occupy Iraq during reconstruction: "what's been mobilized to this point- something on the order of several hundred thousand soldiers- is probably the figure that would be required." I say an international consortium of nations should provide reconstruction money and Hans Blix can be stationed in Iraq to supervise reconstruction. He's a formidable building inspector.
I was kind when I said waffle house. Bush has made a big deal of his savings and retirement proposals, and, in particular, eliminating the tax on dividends. Now he is backing away from the proposals- just like everything else. It would be nice if just once I'd see a government official walk the talk. Waffle this!!!!!
Now for the good news.
HP had disapppointing first quarter sales and expects lackluster results for the second quarter.
Britain's insurance company, Aviva, had a profit drop due to poor returns on its global life insurance business, and said 2003 would be more of the same.
Swiss Re, the world's second biggest reinsurer, announced a loss and cut its dividend for the first time since 1906(SF earthquake).
Germany's economy is stagnating. Spain's growth slows due to an export slump. UK's economic growth is the slowest in 11 years.
Roche suffers a record fourth quarter loss of $30 billion.
Abbey halves its dividend as losses mount.
Terra writes down the value of Lycos. Finally.
Argentina's economy dropped 10% in the past year and consumer prices jumped 40%. Jimmy Carter must be their economic advisor.
About 10,000 of NYC's 80,000 teachers are uncertified. 6600 are expected to get certified for the coming new school year. The remainder will be terminated.
Talking about termination, Saddam Hussein said he'd rather die than leave Iraq. When he dies, doesn't he leave Iraq?
After all the posturing, the U.S will provide Turkey with the $30 billion to cover potential losses from a possible Iraq war. This could have been agreed upon in 5 minutes weeks ago.
800 people are registered for the TED at the Monterey California Center. It starts today and runs for four days. Hopefully some innovative technology will be introduced at the conference.
Have you considered this fact? The U.S. makes up 6% of the world's population and we try to control/police/influence the remaining 94%. With that type of ratio- 6 to 94- is it surprising that we are unsuccessful in this endeavor?
Yesterday, during the final 30 minutes of trading, the market rallied and erased many statistical losses. The reason for the rally- there was a rumor on floor of peace in Iraq. Prior to yesterday the "smart money" was buying stocks based on war. Now the "smart money" is buying stocks on peace rumors. I wish someone would make up their mind. It sounds like another waffle house.
Tuesday, February 25, 2003
2/25/03 We're Running Short On Time
"Show me an oil shock and I'll show you a recession, " says Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley, and he goes on to say "it's hard to believe that the current oil shock will be the one exception." We have a double whammy with almost all-time high gas prices at the pump and natural gas futures which rose 38% Monday! Natural gas prices have doubled since November. Heating oil is at a 23 year high, and natural gas supplies are at their lowest level in 6 years.
The forecasting firm of Economy.com doesn't expect California's Santa Clara County to return to the 2001 job mark until 2011. I give them credit. I don't know what will happen tomorrow.
We must congratulate our new U.S. Treasury Secretary Mr. Snow. On Friday he said in Paris that the "threat of war is having a negative effect on the economy." The American public seems to agree since February consumer sentiment fell 15 points to a decade low.
February same-store sales for Federated Dep't Stores will decline 7 1/2 to 8 1/2% and JC Penney's 2 to 3%. WalMart's will rise 2%. KMart will reduce jobs at their headquarters by 500 to 1000.
Is it true that Martin Sheen will play Saddam Hussein and George Bush Sr. will play his son when the two debate on Saturday Night Live?
The latest Mike Tyson fight lasted 49 seconds. That's longer than it would take for the U.S. to defeat Iraq. In the first Gulf War only 9% of our bombs hit their targets. With the new smart bombs it is estimated that 90% will hit the targets. The only drawback is the knowledge factor in what is being hit. In war what counts is being right. In baseball you can get one hit in three times at bat and still win the batting championship.
Frequently, people inquire as to who I might be. Contrary to rumor, I do not impersonate the Lone Ranger. My horse's name is not Silver, and my best friend is not Tonto but rather Pasquale. You'll be able to recognize me. I'm the one who puts his pants on one leg at a time, and when not wearing pants, likes to sit around the house in a large bath towel. When seen jogging, it is often combined with shadow boxing. If that still doesn't help, I especially enjoy going to the beach at Capitola or the beaches at Pt. Reyes, and perhaps you'll recognize me by the company I keep. The person next to me will be the good-looking one.
"Show me an oil shock and I'll show you a recession, " says Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley, and he goes on to say "it's hard to believe that the current oil shock will be the one exception." We have a double whammy with almost all-time high gas prices at the pump and natural gas futures which rose 38% Monday! Natural gas prices have doubled since November. Heating oil is at a 23 year high, and natural gas supplies are at their lowest level in 6 years.
The forecasting firm of Economy.com doesn't expect California's Santa Clara County to return to the 2001 job mark until 2011. I give them credit. I don't know what will happen tomorrow.
We must congratulate our new U.S. Treasury Secretary Mr. Snow. On Friday he said in Paris that the "threat of war is having a negative effect on the economy." The American public seems to agree since February consumer sentiment fell 15 points to a decade low.
February same-store sales for Federated Dep't Stores will decline 7 1/2 to 8 1/2% and JC Penney's 2 to 3%. WalMart's will rise 2%. KMart will reduce jobs at their headquarters by 500 to 1000.
Is it true that Martin Sheen will play Saddam Hussein and George Bush Sr. will play his son when the two debate on Saturday Night Live?
The latest Mike Tyson fight lasted 49 seconds. That's longer than it would take for the U.S. to defeat Iraq. In the first Gulf War only 9% of our bombs hit their targets. With the new smart bombs it is estimated that 90% will hit the targets. The only drawback is the knowledge factor in what is being hit. In war what counts is being right. In baseball you can get one hit in three times at bat and still win the batting championship.
Frequently, people inquire as to who I might be. Contrary to rumor, I do not impersonate the Lone Ranger. My horse's name is not Silver, and my best friend is not Tonto but rather Pasquale. You'll be able to recognize me. I'm the one who puts his pants on one leg at a time, and when not wearing pants, likes to sit around the house in a large bath towel. When seen jogging, it is often combined with shadow boxing. If that still doesn't help, I especially enjoy going to the beach at Capitola or the beaches at Pt. Reyes, and perhaps you'll recognize me by the company I keep. The person next to me will be the good-looking one.
Monday, February 24, 2003
2/24/03 Focus On What Is Not What Might Be
Over the past two weeks more and more analysts have been predicting a war rally- not in the streets but on Wall Street. The idea is to buy stocks prior to the start of the war and then to sell when the war begins. Such buying has already begun in earnest. It's not for me to criticize someone else's investing behavior. In this case, however, this is not investing. It is monumental speculation on what might be rather than the facts at hand. In addition, very few people ever were consistently successful with a mode of operation which plans to be in and out of the market within a few weeks time. That requires being right on the stocks purchased and right that they'll move in your favor within a short period of time.
The above mentioned scenario has an embryonic behaviorial pattern similar to option investing, and 80% of those purchasing put and call options lose money. Those odds are not a welcome sight to my eyes. It is more rational to stick with what works, and that is to make the trend your friend and to place the risk/reward strongly in your favor at all times. This can be accomplished thru diligence and on-going concentration and dedication.
So, when you hear what the so-called smart money is doing, have those words go in one ear and out the other, and then you will be on the road to being smart!
Over the past two weeks more and more analysts have been predicting a war rally- not in the streets but on Wall Street. The idea is to buy stocks prior to the start of the war and then to sell when the war begins. Such buying has already begun in earnest. It's not for me to criticize someone else's investing behavior. In this case, however, this is not investing. It is monumental speculation on what might be rather than the facts at hand. In addition, very few people ever were consistently successful with a mode of operation which plans to be in and out of the market within a few weeks time. That requires being right on the stocks purchased and right that they'll move in your favor within a short period of time.
The above mentioned scenario has an embryonic behaviorial pattern similar to option investing, and 80% of those purchasing put and call options lose money. Those odds are not a welcome sight to my eyes. It is more rational to stick with what works, and that is to make the trend your friend and to place the risk/reward strongly in your favor at all times. This can be accomplished thru diligence and on-going concentration and dedication.
So, when you hear what the so-called smart money is doing, have those words go in one ear and out the other, and then you will be on the road to being smart!
Sunday, February 23, 2003
2/23/03 Miracles For A Sunday
Believe in Your Heart
Believe in your heart that
something wonderful is about to happen.
Love your life.
Believe in your own power,
and in your own potential,
and your own innate goodness.
Wake every morning with the
awe of just being alive.
Discover each day the magnificent,
awesome beauty in the world.
Explore and embrace life
in yourself and in everyone
you see each day.
Reach within to find your own specialness.
Amaze yourself and rouse those around you to
the potential of each new day.
Don't be afraid to admit your less than perfect;
this is the essence
of our humanity.
Let those who love you help you.
Trust enough to be able to take.
Look with hope to the horizon of today
for today is all we truly have.
Live this day well.
Let a little sun out as well as in.
Create your own rainbows.
Be open to all your possibilities,
all possibilities and miracles.
Always believe in miracles
Believe in Your Heart
Believe in your heart that
something wonderful is about to happen.
Love your life.
Believe in your own power,
and in your own potential,
and your own innate goodness.
Wake every morning with the
awe of just being alive.
Discover each day the magnificent,
awesome beauty in the world.
Explore and embrace life
in yourself and in everyone
you see each day.
Reach within to find your own specialness.
Amaze yourself and rouse those around you to
the potential of each new day.
Don't be afraid to admit your less than perfect;
this is the essence
of our humanity.
Let those who love you help you.
Trust enough to be able to take.
Look with hope to the horizon of today
for today is all we truly have.
Live this day well.
Let a little sun out as well as in.
Create your own rainbows.
Be open to all your possibilities,
all possibilities and miracles.
Always believe in miracles
Saturday, February 22, 2003
2/22/03 MJ
I would never minimize Kobe scoring 40 once again; however, Michael Jordan is 40 years of age and poured in 43 points last night. No one 40 ever has scored close to his age. Not only is it one for the record books, but it reminds one and all once again of why MJ is considered the greatest of all time. You are watching a master at work and still honing his skills.
Target's management said its 2002 sales were hurt by $1 billion in price reductions in its efforts to compete with WalMart and to a lesser extent Kohl's. Target's credit card business contributed 15% to its pre-tax operating profit, and explains why Target's numbers were not that bad.
Starbucks to launch its own credit card.
Agilent to cut 4000 more jobs. They have been such an unsuccessful HP spin-off.
National Semiconductor to lay off 500 workers.
Do you ever get tired of all these politicians and weapons inspectors issuing ultimatums? Since they are all drawing salaries, isn't it time the talking stopped and something got accomplished? Something tells me little awaits these folks in the private sector.
I would never minimize Kobe scoring 40 once again; however, Michael Jordan is 40 years of age and poured in 43 points last night. No one 40 ever has scored close to his age. Not only is it one for the record books, but it reminds one and all once again of why MJ is considered the greatest of all time. You are watching a master at work and still honing his skills.
Target's management said its 2002 sales were hurt by $1 billion in price reductions in its efforts to compete with WalMart and to a lesser extent Kohl's. Target's credit card business contributed 15% to its pre-tax operating profit, and explains why Target's numbers were not that bad.
Starbucks to launch its own credit card.
Agilent to cut 4000 more jobs. They have been such an unsuccessful HP spin-off.
National Semiconductor to lay off 500 workers.
Do you ever get tired of all these politicians and weapons inspectors issuing ultimatums? Since they are all drawing salaries, isn't it time the talking stopped and something got accomplished? Something tells me little awaits these folks in the private sector.
Friday, February 21, 2003
2/21/03 Quotations For A Friday
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's manufacturing index for the region fell to 2.3% in February from 11.2% in January.
The index of leading economic indicators fell 0.1% in January.
Eric Hoffer: "You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you."
Dorothy Bernard: "Courage is fear that has said its prayers."
Eric Hoffer: "It is when power is wedded to chronic fear that it becomes formidable."
Frederic Bastiat: "Everyone wants to live at the expense of the state. They forget that the state lives at the expense of everyone."
Charles A. Beard: "One of the best ways to get yourself a reputation as a dangerous citizen these days is to go about repeating the very phrases which our founding fathers used in the great struggle for independence."
Chester Bowles: "Government is too big and too important to be left to the politicians."
Buddha: "Work out your own salvation. Do not depend on others.
Sir Winston Churchill: "When you have to kill a man, it costs nothing to be polite."
Claudius: "No one is free who is not master of himself."
W. Edwards Deming: "It is not enough to do your best: you must know what to do, and THEN do your best."
Ronald Reagan: "Government is like a baby. An alimentary canal with a big appetite at one end and no sense of responsibility at the other."
George Washington: "If we are wise, let us prepare for the worst."
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's manufacturing index for the region fell to 2.3% in February from 11.2% in January.
The index of leading economic indicators fell 0.1% in January.
Eric Hoffer: "You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you."
Dorothy Bernard: "Courage is fear that has said its prayers."
Eric Hoffer: "It is when power is wedded to chronic fear that it becomes formidable."
Frederic Bastiat: "Everyone wants to live at the expense of the state. They forget that the state lives at the expense of everyone."
Charles A. Beard: "One of the best ways to get yourself a reputation as a dangerous citizen these days is to go about repeating the very phrases which our founding fathers used in the great struggle for independence."
Chester Bowles: "Government is too big and too important to be left to the politicians."
Buddha: "Work out your own salvation. Do not depend on others.
Sir Winston Churchill: "When you have to kill a man, it costs nothing to be polite."
Claudius: "No one is free who is not master of himself."
W. Edwards Deming: "It is not enough to do your best: you must know what to do, and THEN do your best."
Ronald Reagan: "Government is like a baby. An alimentary canal with a big appetite at one end and no sense of responsibility at the other."
George Washington: "If we are wise, let us prepare for the worst."
Thursday, February 20, 2003
2/20/03 Our Government Is A Debt Junkie
Hi everyone! Welcome to the government being busted. They don't have a pot to pee in- pardon my being crude. Of course, our esteemed Snow, the new guy on the block, urges the debt limit be raised. I urge him to go back to CSX. There should be a debt cap, a spending cap, and a program to reduce the deficit. We're in big TROUBLE. The December trade deficit rose 16% to a record $44.2 billion; weekly jobless claims rose 21,000 to 402,000; and producer prices rose at their fastest rate in a decade thanks to higher energy and auto costs. This all means less jobs, less ability to save and less likelihood to spend, and more daily reliance on foreign capital to fund our growing account and budget deficit. We want to go to war with all this hanging over the heads of Main Street?
The Adinistration is really good at dictating to Americans and to the rest of the world. Now let'sl look at Turkey. During the last Gulf war their economy got creamed to the tune of $30 billion. So they are asking for a similar amount from the U.S in case war breaks out again in this region. Is that too much to ask? Obviously the Administration wants to give this country $6 billion less in a take it or leave it attitude. Strategically, the U.S. needs Turkey as a base of operations. Someone needs to re-think this untenable position.
I felt badly for the angst created by the orange alert. Then I thought again. Look at the children in Israel. They go to school with their gas masks, and practice wearing them should a terror alert take place. So duct tape and plastic sheeting doesn't sound so bad after all. We must remember flashlights, batteries, water, food supplies, and sleeping bags.
With the backdrop of all the above, do you really believe the market could possibly have a sustained rally? Do you really believe business will improve? The real question is how bad are things going to get? I have been asking that question for three years. Very few individuals ever provide a response. The few who do are the ones who haven't lost money in this bear market.
Hi everyone! Welcome to the government being busted. They don't have a pot to pee in- pardon my being crude. Of course, our esteemed Snow, the new guy on the block, urges the debt limit be raised. I urge him to go back to CSX. There should be a debt cap, a spending cap, and a program to reduce the deficit. We're in big TROUBLE. The December trade deficit rose 16% to a record $44.2 billion; weekly jobless claims rose 21,000 to 402,000; and producer prices rose at their fastest rate in a decade thanks to higher energy and auto costs. This all means less jobs, less ability to save and less likelihood to spend, and more daily reliance on foreign capital to fund our growing account and budget deficit. We want to go to war with all this hanging over the heads of Main Street?
The Adinistration is really good at dictating to Americans and to the rest of the world. Now let'sl look at Turkey. During the last Gulf war their economy got creamed to the tune of $30 billion. So they are asking for a similar amount from the U.S in case war breaks out again in this region. Is that too much to ask? Obviously the Administration wants to give this country $6 billion less in a take it or leave it attitude. Strategically, the U.S. needs Turkey as a base of operations. Someone needs to re-think this untenable position.
I felt badly for the angst created by the orange alert. Then I thought again. Look at the children in Israel. They go to school with their gas masks, and practice wearing them should a terror alert take place. So duct tape and plastic sheeting doesn't sound so bad after all. We must remember flashlights, batteries, water, food supplies, and sleeping bags.
With the backdrop of all the above, do you really believe the market could possibly have a sustained rally? Do you really believe business will improve? The real question is how bad are things going to get? I have been asking that question for three years. Very few individuals ever provide a response. The few who do are the ones who haven't lost money in this bear market.
Wednesday, February 19, 2003
2/19/03 Thirteen Million Americans
Roughly 13 million Americans want to work and haven't a job. Factory use approximates 75%. With oil at $37 per barrel, and many consumers paying at least $2 per gallon for gas, we are reminded that each $1 a barrel increase in the price of oil equates to a $3 billion tax on the U.S. economy. The latter topped out long before war worries and 9/11.
Unemployment insurance tax filings indicate California has lost well over 200,000 jobs(outside the farm sector) in the past year.
Micron Technology is cutting 10% of its workforce. Waste Management announced job cuts. It appears garbage collection is not a safe work haven. Even the Detroit Institute of Arts will be announcing layoffs. That museum is the state's cultural gem.
On Tuesday, because of the snowstorm, all on-essential government employees were told to stay home. The rumor had it that only about a dozen people went to work and felt essential.
Chicago's Mayor Daley: "people who lose love ones want answers and deserve answers." I wonder if Saddam Hussein shares those sentiments.
About 50% of N. Korea's foreign aid comes from China.
Germany's second biggest bank, HVB group, omits the 2002 dividend after a fourth quarter loss. It is the first time the bank has not paid a dividend in over 50 years. These are not ordinary times.
The U.S. current trade deficit is about 50% larger than its defense budget.
Serious flooding could threaten the DC area in a day or so. Man the life boats.
Maybe Joe Millionnaire could do a guest spot on Al Jazeera. That would be a repayment for the bin Laden tapes.
Another 20,000 troops were ordered to the Persian Gulf region. If this keeps up, the birth rate will go down in the U.S.
Chicago's schools will be teaching war and peace.
The Texas ports of Beaumont, Freeport, Galveston, and Houston have all been beneficiaries from trade with Cuba, and those benefits will continue to increase.
After yesterday's stock split, Microsoft became the first public company with 10 billion shares outstanding, and is tops in market cap with $267 bilion, which is down from its peak of over $600 billion.
Kobie nets 52 in double OT win over the Rockets. His play may get the Lakers into the playoffs.
Yesterday I mentioned about KGB, the great Tervuren. I heard from his owner. Anne is getting a 2 year old female from England. KGB comes from Ireland. She will be breeding her to KGB, and the first litter should be available in a little over a year. I was promised the largest male puppy. It's been too many years since our Duke passed away, and our family has been without a special dog ever since then. Patience can have its virtues. You must never give up on your hopes and dreams.
Roughly 13 million Americans want to work and haven't a job. Factory use approximates 75%. With oil at $37 per barrel, and many consumers paying at least $2 per gallon for gas, we are reminded that each $1 a barrel increase in the price of oil equates to a $3 billion tax on the U.S. economy. The latter topped out long before war worries and 9/11.
Unemployment insurance tax filings indicate California has lost well over 200,000 jobs(outside the farm sector) in the past year.
Micron Technology is cutting 10% of its workforce. Waste Management announced job cuts. It appears garbage collection is not a safe work haven. Even the Detroit Institute of Arts will be announcing layoffs. That museum is the state's cultural gem.
On Tuesday, because of the snowstorm, all on-essential government employees were told to stay home. The rumor had it that only about a dozen people went to work and felt essential.
Chicago's Mayor Daley: "people who lose love ones want answers and deserve answers." I wonder if Saddam Hussein shares those sentiments.
About 50% of N. Korea's foreign aid comes from China.
Germany's second biggest bank, HVB group, omits the 2002 dividend after a fourth quarter loss. It is the first time the bank has not paid a dividend in over 50 years. These are not ordinary times.
The U.S. current trade deficit is about 50% larger than its defense budget.
Serious flooding could threaten the DC area in a day or so. Man the life boats.
Maybe Joe Millionnaire could do a guest spot on Al Jazeera. That would be a repayment for the bin Laden tapes.
Another 20,000 troops were ordered to the Persian Gulf region. If this keeps up, the birth rate will go down in the U.S.
Chicago's schools will be teaching war and peace.
The Texas ports of Beaumont, Freeport, Galveston, and Houston have all been beneficiaries from trade with Cuba, and those benefits will continue to increase.
After yesterday's stock split, Microsoft became the first public company with 10 billion shares outstanding, and is tops in market cap with $267 bilion, which is down from its peak of over $600 billion.
Kobie nets 52 in double OT win over the Rockets. His play may get the Lakers into the playoffs.
Yesterday I mentioned about KGB, the great Tervuren. I heard from his owner. Anne is getting a 2 year old female from England. KGB comes from Ireland. She will be breeding her to KGB, and the first litter should be available in a little over a year. I was promised the largest male puppy. It's been too many years since our Duke passed away, and our family has been without a special dog ever since then. Patience can have its virtues. You must never give up on your hopes and dreams.
Tuesday, February 18, 2003
2/18/03 John Ruskin: "There Is No Wealth But Life"
Vaira Vike-Freibarga, Latvian President, "it is much easier to tolerate a dictator when he is dictating over somebody else's life and not your own."
UBS AG, the biggest Swiss bank, reported the first quarterly loss in four years, and sees no recovery in the months ahead.
Reuters to cut 3000 jobs and reports its first ever loss. They will acquire Multex via a tender offer.
Israel's economy contracted in 2002.
The blizzard of 2003 shut DC down. Next it will be the debt ceiling on Feb. 20. The latter will have more staying power. It won't melt away. Rather it's a cancerous growth.
The Central Bank of Venezuela's current lending rate is 37%. President Hugo Chavez wants the interest rate cap to be 30%, and he recently instituted price controls on 220 different types of goods. Shortages will result. Producers threaten to close plants, and Chavez threatens in return as he is "drawing up plans to seize the plants." Chavez is a former paratrooper. He would do well to return to that occupation.
The Sosan, a North Korean ship, arrived from Germany at the seaport of Nampo. It carried several tons of sodium cyanide. That's not table salt.
Since the beginning of August, the Baghdad Stock Index has risen 47%. That sure beats the Dow.
It's a sad day. McDonald's will drop Big N' Tasty from the $1 menu. It was too good to be true!
Lionel Trains were introduced in 1900, and were just named by the Toy Industry Association as one of the most memorable and creative toys of the past century. I second that.
It is estimated that Cuba will purchase $3 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products by 2005. The U.S. allows Americans to sell their goods to Cuba on a cash-only basis. Payments must be made to a foreign bank and then the cash is forwarded to a U.S. institution.
Intel is Arizona's fifth largest private employer with 9500 employees at its two Chandler locations. Today Intel will announce making a major investment in its Chandler semiconductor operations with the latest chipmaking technology.
Germany's Merck KGaA forecast a flat 2003.
The ZEW Institute warned that the German economy would remain weak.
Arson is suspected on the S. Korean subway that killed 134.
N. Korea threatens to withdraw from the 1953 Armistice Agreement that ended the Korean war. This country is a sorry excuse even for communism.
Feeling safe is one of the primal necessities for all human beings.
The other day I shared an afternoon with KGB, the most wonderful Tervuren I have ever seen. What a treat. Had he been an entrant in the latest Westminister Kennel Club contest at Madison Square Garden, he would have trounced Mick, the winner.
Vaira Vike-Freibarga, Latvian President, "it is much easier to tolerate a dictator when he is dictating over somebody else's life and not your own."
UBS AG, the biggest Swiss bank, reported the first quarterly loss in four years, and sees no recovery in the months ahead.
Reuters to cut 3000 jobs and reports its first ever loss. They will acquire Multex via a tender offer.
Israel's economy contracted in 2002.
The blizzard of 2003 shut DC down. Next it will be the debt ceiling on Feb. 20. The latter will have more staying power. It won't melt away. Rather it's a cancerous growth.
The Central Bank of Venezuela's current lending rate is 37%. President Hugo Chavez wants the interest rate cap to be 30%, and he recently instituted price controls on 220 different types of goods. Shortages will result. Producers threaten to close plants, and Chavez threatens in return as he is "drawing up plans to seize the plants." Chavez is a former paratrooper. He would do well to return to that occupation.
The Sosan, a North Korean ship, arrived from Germany at the seaport of Nampo. It carried several tons of sodium cyanide. That's not table salt.
Since the beginning of August, the Baghdad Stock Index has risen 47%. That sure beats the Dow.
It's a sad day. McDonald's will drop Big N' Tasty from the $1 menu. It was too good to be true!
Lionel Trains were introduced in 1900, and were just named by the Toy Industry Association as one of the most memorable and creative toys of the past century. I second that.
It is estimated that Cuba will purchase $3 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products by 2005. The U.S. allows Americans to sell their goods to Cuba on a cash-only basis. Payments must be made to a foreign bank and then the cash is forwarded to a U.S. institution.
Intel is Arizona's fifth largest private employer with 9500 employees at its two Chandler locations. Today Intel will announce making a major investment in its Chandler semiconductor operations with the latest chipmaking technology.
Germany's Merck KGaA forecast a flat 2003.
The ZEW Institute warned that the German economy would remain weak.
Arson is suspected on the S. Korean subway that killed 134.
N. Korea threatens to withdraw from the 1953 Armistice Agreement that ended the Korean war. This country is a sorry excuse even for communism.
Feeling safe is one of the primal necessities for all human beings.
The other day I shared an afternoon with KGB, the most wonderful Tervuren I have ever seen. What a treat. Had he been an entrant in the latest Westminister Kennel Club contest at Madison Square Garden, he would have trounced Mick, the winner.
Monday, February 17, 2003
2/17/03 As The Threat Of War Recedes
Gold dropped to $346 per ounce after trading earlier this month at $388. The lessons to be learned are to sell into strength whenever possible, and to remember what Bernard Baruch said- you can't get hurt taking a profit.
The dollar rallied to a month high vs the Swiss franc and rebounded against the Euro.
The Bank of Japan maintained a dim view of the Japanese economy.
The Bundesbank said the German economy probably contracted in the fourth quarter.
The Administration is between a rock and a hard place on going to war with Iraq. That's what happens when you back yourself into a corner due to poor decision making. As we have learned in investing, it's important to have a sound exit strategy.
You can't lose face by saving lives.
As his motorcade drove 2 1/2 hours from Camp David thru yesterday's blizzard to the White House, maybe the President reflected on the tomb of the unknown soldier.
We are in the midst of the longest bear market since the second world war.
If Saddam is truly a villain, and he has shown himself to be just that, then some mercenary will kill him- sooner rather than later.
Allan Houston hit nothing but net for 53 big ones.
Tiger Woods is in a class by himself.
Orange will recede to yellow and finally to the color of clear plastic sheeting.
In three days the government is out of spending room. Yeah baby!!!!
30 year mortgages have dropped to 5.86%. Today does anyone stay in a home for 30 days?
Unfortunately, Google purchased Pyra, the young company that created blogger.com which is the service that does publish my daily blog. I hope Google doesn't screw it up.
Let's party! The party plan business generates sales of $7.5 billion per year. There are 12.2 million people involved in the selling side of party plans. So host a party, become a sales consultant, have some fun, be your own boss, and maybe you'll be another Mary Kay.
China's state banks have bad debts of $600 billion while deposits in the banking system total only $800 billion. This serves as a good reason to put cash under the mattress in China.
Sonny Strickland is a Henry County developer in the state of Georgia: "I once had people who sought out land next to a cemetary and asked me to build them a house. They told me they wanted quiet neighbors and figured this would be a way to get that."
George and Abe wish you a great President's Day.
Gold dropped to $346 per ounce after trading earlier this month at $388. The lessons to be learned are to sell into strength whenever possible, and to remember what Bernard Baruch said- you can't get hurt taking a profit.
The dollar rallied to a month high vs the Swiss franc and rebounded against the Euro.
The Bank of Japan maintained a dim view of the Japanese economy.
The Bundesbank said the German economy probably contracted in the fourth quarter.
The Administration is between a rock and a hard place on going to war with Iraq. That's what happens when you back yourself into a corner due to poor decision making. As we have learned in investing, it's important to have a sound exit strategy.
You can't lose face by saving lives.
As his motorcade drove 2 1/2 hours from Camp David thru yesterday's blizzard to the White House, maybe the President reflected on the tomb of the unknown soldier.
We are in the midst of the longest bear market since the second world war.
If Saddam is truly a villain, and he has shown himself to be just that, then some mercenary will kill him- sooner rather than later.
Allan Houston hit nothing but net for 53 big ones.
Tiger Woods is in a class by himself.
Orange will recede to yellow and finally to the color of clear plastic sheeting.
In three days the government is out of spending room. Yeah baby!!!!
30 year mortgages have dropped to 5.86%. Today does anyone stay in a home for 30 days?
Unfortunately, Google purchased Pyra, the young company that created blogger.com which is the service that does publish my daily blog. I hope Google doesn't screw it up.
Let's party! The party plan business generates sales of $7.5 billion per year. There are 12.2 million people involved in the selling side of party plans. So host a party, become a sales consultant, have some fun, be your own boss, and maybe you'll be another Mary Kay.
China's state banks have bad debts of $600 billion while deposits in the banking system total only $800 billion. This serves as a good reason to put cash under the mattress in China.
Sonny Strickland is a Henry County developer in the state of Georgia: "I once had people who sought out land next to a cemetary and asked me to build them a house. They told me they wanted quiet neighbors and figured this would be a way to get that."
George and Abe wish you a great President's Day.
Sunday, February 16, 2003
2/16/03 Personal Preparedness For Orange Alert
1. Only listen to alerts after the person warning about terrorism passes a lie detector test.
2. When participating in an anti-war march, wear neutral colors. Blend into the crowd and leave the purple hair to others.
3. Stock up on anti-virus software and do not participate in illegal downloading.
4. Do not buy duct tape. Buy candles.
5. Do not buy a gas mask. Buy an air freshener.
6. Get rid of all lead paint in the bedroom.
7. Stock up on Astroglide and Trojans.
8. Just in case the terror exceeds 30 days, stock up on personal hygiene items.
9. Stock up on protein and limit carb intake.
10.Do not eat untested genetically modified foods.
11.While under stress, do not day trade.
12.While battling your fears, do not refinance your mortgage.
13.Do not exercise your stock options.
14.Do not participate in any polls on whether to attack Iraq.
15. While under stress, do not speed date.
16.Do not offer asylum to Saddam.
17.Do not abduct a survivor.
18.Stock up on red, white, and blue band-aids.
19.Do not panic. Keep your head about you.
20.Please forgive the Administration. They did not mean to scare you.
1. Only listen to alerts after the person warning about terrorism passes a lie detector test.
2. When participating in an anti-war march, wear neutral colors. Blend into the crowd and leave the purple hair to others.
3. Stock up on anti-virus software and do not participate in illegal downloading.
4. Do not buy duct tape. Buy candles.
5. Do not buy a gas mask. Buy an air freshener.
6. Get rid of all lead paint in the bedroom.
7. Stock up on Astroglide and Trojans.
8. Just in case the terror exceeds 30 days, stock up on personal hygiene items.
9. Stock up on protein and limit carb intake.
10.Do not eat untested genetically modified foods.
11.While under stress, do not day trade.
12.While battling your fears, do not refinance your mortgage.
13.Do not exercise your stock options.
14.Do not participate in any polls on whether to attack Iraq.
15. While under stress, do not speed date.
16.Do not offer asylum to Saddam.
17.Do not abduct a survivor.
18.Stock up on red, white, and blue band-aids.
19.Do not panic. Keep your head about you.
20.Please forgive the Administration. They did not mean to scare you.
Saturday, February 15, 2003
2/15/03 February Consumer Confidence Fell To A 9 Year Low
The expectations index fell to a 10 year low.
In a recent poll 59% said they'd rather win the lottery than fall in love.
Workers paid 27% more for healthcare in 2002 than they did in 2001.
Since 1970, no sustainable U.S. economic recovery has begun with $30+ crude oil prices. We're now above $35.
China is the second largest user of energy in the world, and is a growing net importer of oil. This places added upward pressure on prices.
The Fed is considering injecting cash into the global economy by buying foreign securities and 30 year bonds. They had better check the calendar first. In five days the U.S. government will not be able to spend any more money. The debt ceiling will need to be raised.
1140 more individuals at Boeing are warned of pending layoffs.
On-line magazine publisher Salon is close to folding.
Floyd E. Bloom, president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science: "the American health system today is in serious crisis. It is failing before our eyes, depite consuming a very significant percentage of our GDP and representing perhaps the biggest employer for most communities. The current system can scarcely meet today's needs, let alone the cost of transition to post-genomic medicine. We are now approaching $700 billion for Medicare and $500 billion for Medicaid. Those mandated entitlements are now approaching 15% of our GDP."
The expectations index fell to a 10 year low.
In a recent poll 59% said they'd rather win the lottery than fall in love.
Workers paid 27% more for healthcare in 2002 than they did in 2001.
Since 1970, no sustainable U.S. economic recovery has begun with $30+ crude oil prices. We're now above $35.
China is the second largest user of energy in the world, and is a growing net importer of oil. This places added upward pressure on prices.
The Fed is considering injecting cash into the global economy by buying foreign securities and 30 year bonds. They had better check the calendar first. In five days the U.S. government will not be able to spend any more money. The debt ceiling will need to be raised.
1140 more individuals at Boeing are warned of pending layoffs.
On-line magazine publisher Salon is close to folding.
Floyd E. Bloom, president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science: "the American health system today is in serious crisis. It is failing before our eyes, depite consuming a very significant percentage of our GDP and representing perhaps the biggest employer for most communities. The current system can scarcely meet today's needs, let alone the cost of transition to post-genomic medicine. We are now approaching $700 billion for Medicare and $500 billion for Medicaid. Those mandated entitlements are now approaching 15% of our GDP."
Friday, February 14, 2003
2/14/03 Happy Valentine's Day To My Gang
While I'm on the subject, sex experts say one in five couples are living in a "sexless" marriage and that the numbers are worse in the Silicon Valley. As for the latter, it's possible that too many men invested in stocks when they were $200 per share and now those same stocks are selling for 20 cents per share. That loss may be impinging on performance. If I ever were that greedy, I'd feel pretty inadequate.
In this Harris murder trial she was convicted for running over her husband. When was the last time you watched a truly Jewish woman at work? They do it all the time. They only receive a lifetime of misery.
I was wondering. Do you think the run on duct tape and plastic sheeting will help Home Depot's business?The stock is selling at 15 times duct tape sales.
You have to love Dell. Their storage and server business is going great guns.
Talking about guns, let's get real here. Colin Powell was whining about the Iraqi missiles. The ones they have been describing go 90 miles. The ones they discovered go 113 miles. Are we going to war over 23 miles? That's $1.60. I don't know about Powell but Iraqi missiles get 23 miles to the gallon. At $1.60 per gallon, we're talking war about $1.60. I'll ante up the $1.60 as a good American. We'll call it even.
Japan's economy grew at 0.5%. We have a lot in common with Japan. Hopefully it's not the stock market. Theirs is at or near a 20 year low. If that happens to us, the Dow would be 800. That couldn't happen here. Right?
Bethlehem Steel will layoff 4000 and Ericsson 1200.
Because of lousy January auto sales, overall retail sales were off 0.9%
While I'm on the subject, sex experts say one in five couples are living in a "sexless" marriage and that the numbers are worse in the Silicon Valley. As for the latter, it's possible that too many men invested in stocks when they were $200 per share and now those same stocks are selling for 20 cents per share. That loss may be impinging on performance. If I ever were that greedy, I'd feel pretty inadequate.
In this Harris murder trial she was convicted for running over her husband. When was the last time you watched a truly Jewish woman at work? They do it all the time. They only receive a lifetime of misery.
I was wondering. Do you think the run on duct tape and plastic sheeting will help Home Depot's business?The stock is selling at 15 times duct tape sales.
You have to love Dell. Their storage and server business is going great guns.
Talking about guns, let's get real here. Colin Powell was whining about the Iraqi missiles. The ones they have been describing go 90 miles. The ones they discovered go 113 miles. Are we going to war over 23 miles? That's $1.60. I don't know about Powell but Iraqi missiles get 23 miles to the gallon. At $1.60 per gallon, we're talking war about $1.60. I'll ante up the $1.60 as a good American. We'll call it even.
Japan's economy grew at 0.5%. We have a lot in common with Japan. Hopefully it's not the stock market. Theirs is at or near a 20 year low. If that happens to us, the Dow would be 800. That couldn't happen here. Right?
Bethlehem Steel will layoff 4000 and Ericsson 1200.
Because of lousy January auto sales, overall retail sales were off 0.9%
Thursday, February 13, 2003
2/13/03 If The Queen Had.....
N.Korea said that, if provoked, the country is capable of striking U.S. targets anywhere in the world. My response to that is, if the Queen had balls, she'd be king.
Gerald Loeb: "Willingness and ability to hold funds uninvested while awaiting real opportunities is a key to success in the battle for investment survival." In other words, wait until profit potential greatly outweighs the risks.
Crude oil supplies dropped to their lowest levels since 1975, and prices for crude reached their highest point since November 2000. Meanwhile, our strategic oil reserves remain at their highest point while Americans suffer with higher fuel bills.
Healthcare insurance costs jumped 14% in 2002 and are expected to rise 16% this year. 2003 would be the fourth consecutive year of double digit cost increases. The costs in and of themselves reduce hiring. If the costs continue to rise, the extent of layoffs will rise as well.
The Pentagon activated another 40,000 reservists to active duty, bringing the total to 150,252. The Washington Post reports that the U.S. special operations forces were operating in Iraq.
The office of Management & Budget(OMB) claims that the amount of wasteful IT spending in the federal governement is as high as 20% of totsl spending on systems or services, or close to $60 billion. I feel confident that waste in the federal government runs considerably higher than that amount.
Greenspan considers fiscal stimulus premature. He finds it difficult to gauge the health of the economy because of the Iraqi war fears. A field trip to a Wichita bread line might clarify his thinking.
It was like the old days of the cold war with Russia. Now anti-aircraft missiles guard the skies in DC and there police carry gas masks. Americans stockpile, food, water, and medical supplies. All we need now is some bunker building. Linking al-Qaida with Iraq is not in my view a "nightmare" or an "unholy partnership" as decribed by Ari Fleischer. For me it's just a convenient business arrangement. I suggest we get the players to this conflict together at a temple, break some bread, and partake in some chicken soup. It's good for the soul.
N.Korea said that, if provoked, the country is capable of striking U.S. targets anywhere in the world. My response to that is, if the Queen had balls, she'd be king.
Gerald Loeb: "Willingness and ability to hold funds uninvested while awaiting real opportunities is a key to success in the battle for investment survival." In other words, wait until profit potential greatly outweighs the risks.
Crude oil supplies dropped to their lowest levels since 1975, and prices for crude reached their highest point since November 2000. Meanwhile, our strategic oil reserves remain at their highest point while Americans suffer with higher fuel bills.
Healthcare insurance costs jumped 14% in 2002 and are expected to rise 16% this year. 2003 would be the fourth consecutive year of double digit cost increases. The costs in and of themselves reduce hiring. If the costs continue to rise, the extent of layoffs will rise as well.
The Pentagon activated another 40,000 reservists to active duty, bringing the total to 150,252. The Washington Post reports that the U.S. special operations forces were operating in Iraq.
The office of Management & Budget(OMB) claims that the amount of wasteful IT spending in the federal governement is as high as 20% of totsl spending on systems or services, or close to $60 billion. I feel confident that waste in the federal government runs considerably higher than that amount.
Greenspan considers fiscal stimulus premature. He finds it difficult to gauge the health of the economy because of the Iraqi war fears. A field trip to a Wichita bread line might clarify his thinking.
It was like the old days of the cold war with Russia. Now anti-aircraft missiles guard the skies in DC and there police carry gas masks. Americans stockpile, food, water, and medical supplies. All we need now is some bunker building. Linking al-Qaida with Iraq is not in my view a "nightmare" or an "unholy partnership" as decribed by Ari Fleischer. For me it's just a convenient business arrangement. I suggest we get the players to this conflict together at a temple, break some bread, and partake in some chicken soup. It's good for the soul.
Wednesday, February 12, 2003
2/12/03 The Bread Line
Alan Greenspan tells you what you want to hear. I tell you the unfiltered facts- in your face and down your throat. Wichita, Kansas has 544,000 people in its metropolitan area. It is called the "air capital of the world." There are four major airplane-manufacturing plants plus a wing design facility for Airbus. In the past year and a half 14,200 Wichita aircraft workers have been laid off. An additional 1500 job cuts are expected at Cessna this year due to the fact that Cessna only figures to deliver 220 Citation jets this year, and that's down sharply from the 307 built in 2002. Raytheon laid off 600 last week. Manufacturing accounts for 24% of the jobs in Wichita and aviation makes up about 70% of manufacturing. Bread lines are taking place in Wichita. Just last week 1500 of the jobless stood in line for a loaf of bread at the Bread of Line food bank. These are workers who were making $52,000 a year. They have almost no chance to get another job in Wichita. This is not a soft patch. This is economic devastation. There is not an airplane made in the U.S. that does not have at least one part manufactured in Wichita.
Goldman Sachs sees IT spending dropping 10% this year. Merrill Lynch says it could stay weak well into 2004.
In 2002 the VC industry raised the least amount of funds since 1981.
Nokia to cut 550 jobs.
Cadbury warns of disappointing earnings due to their U.S. operations.
Greenspan: "Signals on the trajectory of the economy as we enter 2003 remain mixed. The few data in hand suggest that the economy has not yet broken out of the pattern of subpar performance experienced over the past year." I guess he knew all along the subpar performance provided signals on the trajectory. As for data, maybe if they were issued with honesty, he wouldn't have trouble reading the economic tea leaves.
Qualcomm announced a stock buyback and a five cent quarterly dividend. It's quite late for the stockholders who have been burned in this stock for the past three years. What a disaster.
Alan Greenspan tells you what you want to hear. I tell you the unfiltered facts- in your face and down your throat. Wichita, Kansas has 544,000 people in its metropolitan area. It is called the "air capital of the world." There are four major airplane-manufacturing plants plus a wing design facility for Airbus. In the past year and a half 14,200 Wichita aircraft workers have been laid off. An additional 1500 job cuts are expected at Cessna this year due to the fact that Cessna only figures to deliver 220 Citation jets this year, and that's down sharply from the 307 built in 2002. Raytheon laid off 600 last week. Manufacturing accounts for 24% of the jobs in Wichita and aviation makes up about 70% of manufacturing. Bread lines are taking place in Wichita. Just last week 1500 of the jobless stood in line for a loaf of bread at the Bread of Line food bank. These are workers who were making $52,000 a year. They have almost no chance to get another job in Wichita. This is not a soft patch. This is economic devastation. There is not an airplane made in the U.S. that does not have at least one part manufactured in Wichita.
Goldman Sachs sees IT spending dropping 10% this year. Merrill Lynch says it could stay weak well into 2004.
In 2002 the VC industry raised the least amount of funds since 1981.
Nokia to cut 550 jobs.
Cadbury warns of disappointing earnings due to their U.S. operations.
Greenspan: "Signals on the trajectory of the economy as we enter 2003 remain mixed. The few data in hand suggest that the economy has not yet broken out of the pattern of subpar performance experienced over the past year." I guess he knew all along the subpar performance provided signals on the trajectory. As for data, maybe if they were issued with honesty, he wouldn't have trouble reading the economic tea leaves.
Qualcomm announced a stock buyback and a five cent quarterly dividend. It's quite late for the stockholders who have been burned in this stock for the past three years. What a disaster.
Tuesday, February 11, 2003
2/11/03 Civil Liberties
"Now it is a funny thing about life. If you refuse to accept anything but the best you very often get it. If you utterly decline to make do with what you can get, then somehow or other you are likely to get what you want."
- Somerset Maugham
The 87-page document, "Domestic Security Enhancement Act of 2003," marked "CONFIDENTIAL- NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION" is dated January 9, 2003 and was sent to VP Cheney and House Speaker Hastert. In this document are recommendations to further erode our civil liberties, liberties for which our proud fighting men perished. The war on terrorism is being used as the excuse for the reduction in our civil liberties. The tragedy of 9/11 continues daily. Testing the waters on constitutional guarantees can produce serious ramifications.
Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson: "The impact of war on the U.S. economy is unpredictable. A war is one of those things one simply can't model."
Nobel-prize winning economist Joseph Stieglitz said of the Bush tax plan: "It is inadequate stimulus. It leads to higher deficits and it worsens the problems of inequity."
Consumer confidence in a February poll fell to its lowest level in 25 months. 25% of Americans think the economy will go into a recession. 42% think the economy will slow down, but not go into a recession. At the present time there is no growth. How can it slow down more without going into a recession? Maybe soft patch Greenspan will provide the answer and tell us we are in a goldilocks economy where everything is sugar and nice.
Moody's lowered its ratings yesterday on more than $27 billion of outstanding state of Claifornia bonds. Moody's expects state deficits to persist beyond fiscal 2004. That's a safe prediction. Even a busted clock is right twice a day.
"Now it is a funny thing about life. If you refuse to accept anything but the best you very often get it. If you utterly decline to make do with what you can get, then somehow or other you are likely to get what you want."
- Somerset Maugham
The 87-page document, "Domestic Security Enhancement Act of 2003," marked "CONFIDENTIAL- NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION" is dated January 9, 2003 and was sent to VP Cheney and House Speaker Hastert. In this document are recommendations to further erode our civil liberties, liberties for which our proud fighting men perished. The war on terrorism is being used as the excuse for the reduction in our civil liberties. The tragedy of 9/11 continues daily. Testing the waters on constitutional guarantees can produce serious ramifications.
Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson: "The impact of war on the U.S. economy is unpredictable. A war is one of those things one simply can't model."
Nobel-prize winning economist Joseph Stieglitz said of the Bush tax plan: "It is inadequate stimulus. It leads to higher deficits and it worsens the problems of inequity."
Consumer confidence in a February poll fell to its lowest level in 25 months. 25% of Americans think the economy will go into a recession. 42% think the economy will slow down, but not go into a recession. At the present time there is no growth. How can it slow down more without going into a recession? Maybe soft patch Greenspan will provide the answer and tell us we are in a goldilocks economy where everything is sugar and nice.
Moody's lowered its ratings yesterday on more than $27 billion of outstanding state of Claifornia bonds. Moody's expects state deficits to persist beyond fiscal 2004. That's a safe prediction. Even a busted clock is right twice a day.
Monday, February 10, 2003
2/10/03 The New Playing Field
As Rumsfeld is busy trash talking and calling Iraq a disgusting enemy, other forces are changing the landscape. The Aministration may talk tough, but Hussein is laughing all the way to the bank. The number one investment over the past year has been the old Iraqi currency, the Dinar. A year ago the exchange rate was 17 to the U.S. dollar, and now it is only 8 to the dollar. In other words, its value vs the dollar has risen over 100%. As the average U.S. driver pays $1.60 per gallon for regular unleaded gasoline, Iraq is coining money with crude at $35 per barrel, and Hussein collects about 10% of those oil receipts for himself. The playing field has turned very green for Iraq. Meanwhile, our dollar continues to fall in value along with the stock market, and our budget deficits get larger and larger. All of this talk of war has enriched Iraq while we get poorer. We are losing a war before the fighting has begun or if it begins at all.
The largest Iraqi exile community in the U.S. is in Detroit. Recreating Iraq will be a daunting mission. As one exile said, "we'll have more than a billion Muslims watching us. Winning the war will be easy. Nation-building is harder. If we mess up, the extremists will come."
WalMart said its sales were soft at the beginning and at the end of the first week of February, and revenue was below plan. Federated Dept Stores sees February same-store sales down 4-5%, and March is expected to drop 3-4%. As I have mentioned in prior blogs, the first quarter will be worse than the Christmas season, and the other shoe may drop going further out.
There have been 7 consecutive negative returns for VC firms. That's what happens when greed works against you, and you have to think to earn a living. The sheep are going to slaughter, and a good percentage of the VC firms will disappear from view. As Robert Ardrie would say, that's the way of life for the survival of the fittest.
Greenspan and his soft patch will go before the Senate tomorrow. He will talk about geo-political risks and other gobbly gook. Most of the networks will carry his talk live. It's a mistake. They should be out there generating ad revenue and doing something productive for their shareowners. It's really too bad. Greenspan is 74, and Ayn Rand would not recognize her disciple.
As Rumsfeld is busy trash talking and calling Iraq a disgusting enemy, other forces are changing the landscape. The Aministration may talk tough, but Hussein is laughing all the way to the bank. The number one investment over the past year has been the old Iraqi currency, the Dinar. A year ago the exchange rate was 17 to the U.S. dollar, and now it is only 8 to the dollar. In other words, its value vs the dollar has risen over 100%. As the average U.S. driver pays $1.60 per gallon for regular unleaded gasoline, Iraq is coining money with crude at $35 per barrel, and Hussein collects about 10% of those oil receipts for himself. The playing field has turned very green for Iraq. Meanwhile, our dollar continues to fall in value along with the stock market, and our budget deficits get larger and larger. All of this talk of war has enriched Iraq while we get poorer. We are losing a war before the fighting has begun or if it begins at all.
The largest Iraqi exile community in the U.S. is in Detroit. Recreating Iraq will be a daunting mission. As one exile said, "we'll have more than a billion Muslims watching us. Winning the war will be easy. Nation-building is harder. If we mess up, the extremists will come."
WalMart said its sales were soft at the beginning and at the end of the first week of February, and revenue was below plan. Federated Dept Stores sees February same-store sales down 4-5%, and March is expected to drop 3-4%. As I have mentioned in prior blogs, the first quarter will be worse than the Christmas season, and the other shoe may drop going further out.
There have been 7 consecutive negative returns for VC firms. That's what happens when greed works against you, and you have to think to earn a living. The sheep are going to slaughter, and a good percentage of the VC firms will disappear from view. As Robert Ardrie would say, that's the way of life for the survival of the fittest.
Greenspan and his soft patch will go before the Senate tomorrow. He will talk about geo-political risks and other gobbly gook. Most of the networks will carry his talk live. It's a mistake. They should be out there generating ad revenue and doing something productive for their shareowners. It's really too bad. Greenspan is 74, and Ayn Rand would not recognize her disciple.
Sunday, February 09, 2003
2/9/03 The Pliability Of Curves
Many have inquired why the U.S. upgraded to an orange alert on Friday. The answer can be found in the curvy and secretive section of the Hajj, the huge annual pilgrimage of two million Muslims to Islam's holy city of Mecca. This religious journey has taken on ominous overtones in most recent years. It was during the 1999 Hajj that bin Laden's mother and brother made it unto Afganistan's state-owned airline in order to visit him while he was sick. To state it bluntly, tracking the movements of terrorists around curvy sections is almost impossible during the Hajj. Hence, the orange alert. It is prudent to be safe rather than sorry.
The same is true for the stock market. Today's consumer debt is higher than at any other point in history. With visibility so dim, it is wise to remain cautious and to pay off margin debt and to invest in only the cream of the crop, and that means not very often.
Consumer spending is slowing dramatically, and saving is more in vogue. This had to come to pass. In December credit card companies wrote off 7 1/2% of credit card receivables. This charge-off level is the second highest ever. So spending must slow down in the future, and this will have a very near-term negative impact on the economy. Over the long-term saving more is a positive.
This is a time to avoid rigidity and to be pliable in one's attitudes. There are so many daily hurdles which, on the surface, may appear impassable. That's almost never true. Unfortunately, depression, feeling scared, and being overwhelmed only magnify the hurdles. As we all know, life can take its toll. The three year bear market has not helped, and has destroyed trillions of dollars of wealth and generated a feeling of fiscal quicksand. I wish I could say that feeling is imagined but it's quite real - with or without threats of war. Today is a day of rest. We can all use it. Our energies need to be rejuvenated for next week's daily battles.
Many have inquired why the U.S. upgraded to an orange alert on Friday. The answer can be found in the curvy and secretive section of the Hajj, the huge annual pilgrimage of two million Muslims to Islam's holy city of Mecca. This religious journey has taken on ominous overtones in most recent years. It was during the 1999 Hajj that bin Laden's mother and brother made it unto Afganistan's state-owned airline in order to visit him while he was sick. To state it bluntly, tracking the movements of terrorists around curvy sections is almost impossible during the Hajj. Hence, the orange alert. It is prudent to be safe rather than sorry.
The same is true for the stock market. Today's consumer debt is higher than at any other point in history. With visibility so dim, it is wise to remain cautious and to pay off margin debt and to invest in only the cream of the crop, and that means not very often.
Consumer spending is slowing dramatically, and saving is more in vogue. This had to come to pass. In December credit card companies wrote off 7 1/2% of credit card receivables. This charge-off level is the second highest ever. So spending must slow down in the future, and this will have a very near-term negative impact on the economy. Over the long-term saving more is a positive.
This is a time to avoid rigidity and to be pliable in one's attitudes. There are so many daily hurdles which, on the surface, may appear impassable. That's almost never true. Unfortunately, depression, feeling scared, and being overwhelmed only magnify the hurdles. As we all know, life can take its toll. The three year bear market has not helped, and has destroyed trillions of dollars of wealth and generated a feeling of fiscal quicksand. I wish I could say that feeling is imagined but it's quite real - with or without threats of war. Today is a day of rest. We can all use it. Our energies need to be rejuvenated for next week's daily battles.
Saturday, February 08, 2003
2/8/03 You Can't Fire Who You Don't Hire
The employment report for January said retail employment rose by 101,000. The fact is the hiring was not real. The employees weren't hired in December and therefore weren't fired in January. This is how ridiculous government reporting has become. They call this adjusting data for seasonal variations. I'm a simple guy. I call it bullshit. Aside from retail employment, supposedly the economy added 42,000 other jobs in January. We know this isn't true because over 100,000 net job losses were announced. The December payroll number was adjusted ownward today to show a much larger job loss of 156,000 or 55,000 more than originally stated. It would be so much easier to provide the correct number in the first place and indicate unemployment is rising.
Eurostocks near 6 year lows.
Volvo downbeat on future earnings.
In January the U.S. imported 67% of the oil Iraq exported a day. You still believe there will be a war?
Crude oil is over $35 a barrel, and gas will rise again at the pump.
Stocks declined for the fourth straight week, and have broken the chart support levels.
AIG hits 4 year low and closes at $46.70 or down $23 billion in value for the week. 38-40 looks like an interesting chart support level.
Credit card borrowing fell to a 27-year low in December. As I have been saying, the new trend is to save and not to consume.
The employment report for January said retail employment rose by 101,000. The fact is the hiring was not real. The employees weren't hired in December and therefore weren't fired in January. This is how ridiculous government reporting has become. They call this adjusting data for seasonal variations. I'm a simple guy. I call it bullshit. Aside from retail employment, supposedly the economy added 42,000 other jobs in January. We know this isn't true because over 100,000 net job losses were announced. The December payroll number was adjusted ownward today to show a much larger job loss of 156,000 or 55,000 more than originally stated. It would be so much easier to provide the correct number in the first place and indicate unemployment is rising.
Eurostocks near 6 year lows.
Volvo downbeat on future earnings.
In January the U.S. imported 67% of the oil Iraq exported a day. You still believe there will be a war?
Crude oil is over $35 a barrel, and gas will rise again at the pump.
Stocks declined for the fourth straight week, and have broken the chart support levels.
AIG hits 4 year low and closes at $46.70 or down $23 billion in value for the week. 38-40 looks like an interesting chart support level.
Credit card borrowing fell to a 27-year low in December. As I have been saying, the new trend is to save and not to consume.
Friday, February 07, 2003
2/7/03 Happy Birthday Edward
The Federal government announced they would be cutting 400 jobs. That's like a pimple on an elephant's ass. I was hoping for a number closer to 400,000.
In the journal, Human Production, researchers found progressive motility declined 3.1% each year. In other words, "the data suggest men may become progressively less fertile as they age." In less scientific terms, the sperm swims in circles(like the Wazoo bird) rather than making a mad dash for the female egg. The moral of the story is keep your eye on the ball.
Sears had its 17th straight monthly decline in same-store sales, and that's not easy to deliver! Their first quarter will come in below projections. Federated Dept Stores and J.C. Penney also had lower same-store sales. On the other hand, the leader of the pack, WalMart, had a sales gain of 2.3%. As always, ride the winner.
Bank of England cuts interest rates to the lowest level since 1955. They are trying to spur growth. I give them credit for trying. Hope springs eternal.
The NY Times ran an article stating the U.S. economy is in its worst hiring slump in 20 years. Tell that to Greenspan. He thinks we've hit a soft patch. I know a proctologist who thought that too.
Agilent lowers guidance. This Hewlett Packard spin-off has been a problem from the start.
Chicago topped the nation in job losses in 2002.
Circuit City cut 2000 jobs.
Hispanic births account for more than 50% of the births in California.
In the past couple of weeks gas prices have risen about 20 cents per gallon, and with that, crude oil is selling near a two year high.
Worker productivity in the fourth quarter fell far short of expectations. At some point there are diminishing returns, and we should remember that you can't get blood from a stone.
El Paso, the largest U.S. pipeline company, cut its dividend by 82%.
Dillingham Construction filed for chapter 11.
Too often individuals and/or groups don't appreciate what they have. This can be true in all walks of life. Take the 49ers and Steve Mariucci. Sometimes it takes place in relationships/marriages. Sometimes it happens with stocks. When you have a winner, don't look to see whether the grass is greener across the street. Appreciate what you have. Don't sell WalMart to buy the stock of another competitor. WalMart is probably the best run company in America. Stick with the winner, and don't overtrade. Overtrading can only bring with it losses and disappointments.
The Federal government announced they would be cutting 400 jobs. That's like a pimple on an elephant's ass. I was hoping for a number closer to 400,000.
In the journal, Human Production, researchers found progressive motility declined 3.1% each year. In other words, "the data suggest men may become progressively less fertile as they age." In less scientific terms, the sperm swims in circles(like the Wazoo bird) rather than making a mad dash for the female egg. The moral of the story is keep your eye on the ball.
Sears had its 17th straight monthly decline in same-store sales, and that's not easy to deliver! Their first quarter will come in below projections. Federated Dept Stores and J.C. Penney also had lower same-store sales. On the other hand, the leader of the pack, WalMart, had a sales gain of 2.3%. As always, ride the winner.
Bank of England cuts interest rates to the lowest level since 1955. They are trying to spur growth. I give them credit for trying. Hope springs eternal.
The NY Times ran an article stating the U.S. economy is in its worst hiring slump in 20 years. Tell that to Greenspan. He thinks we've hit a soft patch. I know a proctologist who thought that too.
Agilent lowers guidance. This Hewlett Packard spin-off has been a problem from the start.
Chicago topped the nation in job losses in 2002.
Circuit City cut 2000 jobs.
Hispanic births account for more than 50% of the births in California.
In the past couple of weeks gas prices have risen about 20 cents per gallon, and with that, crude oil is selling near a two year high.
Worker productivity in the fourth quarter fell far short of expectations. At some point there are diminishing returns, and we should remember that you can't get blood from a stone.
El Paso, the largest U.S. pipeline company, cut its dividend by 82%.
Dillingham Construction filed for chapter 11.
Too often individuals and/or groups don't appreciate what they have. This can be true in all walks of life. Take the 49ers and Steve Mariucci. Sometimes it takes place in relationships/marriages. Sometimes it happens with stocks. When you have a winner, don't look to see whether the grass is greener across the street. Appreciate what you have. Don't sell WalMart to buy the stock of another competitor. WalMart is probably the best run company in America. Stick with the winner, and don't overtrade. Overtrading can only bring with it losses and disappointments.
Thursday, February 06, 2003
2/6/03 The Trend
A month does not go by that I don't remind my readers to make the trend your friend. That's true of the market and also in business. We can learn from companies that do the opposite.
Let's look at Cisco. One money manager recently stated that "Cisco owns the market and they can still afford to charge the premium for the nameplate." How wrong he is. First, the customer cannot afford the premium for the nameplate. Second, Cisco only owns the high end of their market, and that sector is not growing. In fact, it is contracting. Another money manager said "Cisco still believes that price is still not the key issue in the marketplace." Maybe not three years ago, but price is very much a factor today, and the trend is towards saving money on less expensive equipment. For example, Conneticut's Naugatuck Valley Community College replaced Cisco equipment with 28 data switches from Hewlett-Packard and saved $80,000 or 40% over what Cisco would have charged. The savings get greater when we discuss the wins the Chinese manufacturers have provided to their customers. Cisco will pay dearly for ignoring the growing trend to price as a determining factor. The stockholders continue to pay. Cisco stock has dropped over 30% in the past year alone.
It is expected that the U.S. debt limit, currently $6.4 trillion, will be hit Feb. 20. I touched on this subject some weeks back. Now we are two weeks away from the government running out of money. The Congress should not provide a near-term fix to this problem without a plan carved in stone which reduces government expenditures by at least 5%, and that includes providing for funds for Iraq, N. Korea, and all points on the globe! They can start by rescinding the pay raise for all government workers, and then deep cuts in staff members should be included for all members of Congress as well as White House staff. Maybe then the right hand will know what the left hand is doing.
Since the slowdown started in the Silicon Valley, 130,000 jobs have been lost. To put it in perspective, that's the population of Berkeley, Ca.
Last week economic conditions took its toll on the law firm, Brobeck, Phleger and Harrison. This week San Jose-based Skjerven Morrill fell victim. The latter had been in the Silicon Valley for 26 years and specialized in intellectual property disputes. Maybe with less money for R&D, there's less intellectual property. Or maybe the intellectuals have left California and moved to a more tax friendly state- like Ted Turner.
Not all technology companies are in the soup. There's a small, privately-owned company in Bellevue, Wa called AskMe. Last year they doubled revenue, became profitable, and tripled its number of customers( Proctor & Gamble, Ford, Honeywell, Boeing, Network Appliance). The company builds Employee Knowledge Networks and collates information from HR databases, manuals, and case studies written by employees and provides the mechanism by which employees find answers to questions and thus reduce the time employees expend in spinning their wheels in utter frustration. Unlike most other software companies, AskMe is hiring.
A month does not go by that I don't remind my readers to make the trend your friend. That's true of the market and also in business. We can learn from companies that do the opposite.
Let's look at Cisco. One money manager recently stated that "Cisco owns the market and they can still afford to charge the premium for the nameplate." How wrong he is. First, the customer cannot afford the premium for the nameplate. Second, Cisco only owns the high end of their market, and that sector is not growing. In fact, it is contracting. Another money manager said "Cisco still believes that price is still not the key issue in the marketplace." Maybe not three years ago, but price is very much a factor today, and the trend is towards saving money on less expensive equipment. For example, Conneticut's Naugatuck Valley Community College replaced Cisco equipment with 28 data switches from Hewlett-Packard and saved $80,000 or 40% over what Cisco would have charged. The savings get greater when we discuss the wins the Chinese manufacturers have provided to their customers. Cisco will pay dearly for ignoring the growing trend to price as a determining factor. The stockholders continue to pay. Cisco stock has dropped over 30% in the past year alone.
It is expected that the U.S. debt limit, currently $6.4 trillion, will be hit Feb. 20. I touched on this subject some weeks back. Now we are two weeks away from the government running out of money. The Congress should not provide a near-term fix to this problem without a plan carved in stone which reduces government expenditures by at least 5%, and that includes providing for funds for Iraq, N. Korea, and all points on the globe! They can start by rescinding the pay raise for all government workers, and then deep cuts in staff members should be included for all members of Congress as well as White House staff. Maybe then the right hand will know what the left hand is doing.
Since the slowdown started in the Silicon Valley, 130,000 jobs have been lost. To put it in perspective, that's the population of Berkeley, Ca.
Last week economic conditions took its toll on the law firm, Brobeck, Phleger and Harrison. This week San Jose-based Skjerven Morrill fell victim. The latter had been in the Silicon Valley for 26 years and specialized in intellectual property disputes. Maybe with less money for R&D, there's less intellectual property. Or maybe the intellectuals have left California and moved to a more tax friendly state- like Ted Turner.
Not all technology companies are in the soup. There's a small, privately-owned company in Bellevue, Wa called AskMe. Last year they doubled revenue, became profitable, and tripled its number of customers( Proctor & Gamble, Ford, Honeywell, Boeing, Network Appliance). The company builds Employee Knowledge Networks and collates information from HR databases, manuals, and case studies written by employees and provides the mechanism by which employees find answers to questions and thus reduce the time employees expend in spinning their wheels in utter frustration. Unlike most other software companies, AskMe is hiring.
Wednesday, February 05, 2003
2/5/03 Forest Fires
I read an article recently about the Silicon Valley, and an analogy was brought out with respect to forest fires. It was suggested that periodic fires burning underbrush and weaker trees renew the entire forest region, and thus it was explained, allow it to grow and spread again. There wasn't any mention of greed, lack of managerial skills, and China. I suggest they burn the newspaper that printed this article which insults the intelligence of those feeling pain in the Silicon Valley. There are huge amounts of talented individuals without jobs and with little hope of getting a job. I have previously mentioned that one sixth of the area's space is comprised of vacant office buildings etc. There is real hurt there, and re-growth is not around the corner. Retrenchment will be the call for a long long time.
Take Cisco. Please! No one cares that their earnings improved for the past quarter. Their sales were down and Chambers said customers are even more cautious than they were at the beginning of the second quarter, and forecast another possible dip for this period. He sees no quick upturn for tech spending. He's not alone in this view.
Ted Turner will be making a move to Florida near Tallahassee for tax reasons. Florida hasn't any personal state income tax. When and if he sells his AOL stock, that will save him a wad of cash. Good for him.
AIG raises their liability reserves by $2.8 billion.
Germany's unemployment rate rose to a 5 year high.
Once again the dollar is nearing a new 4 year low vs the euro.
Senator Kent Conrad, D-N.D. "the president is taking us into an absolute swamp of deficit and debt...unparalleled in our nation's history." What would someone from ND know from swamps?
There were 132,000 job cuts in January. That's one soft patch.
Blix warns Iraq "it is five minutes to midnight." Does he really think Saddam gives a crap about the time? A little insight into Blix came when he stated "we do not have the same determination on substance as we have on process." I wonder whether he is thinking of dual citizenship and tossing his hat in the ring as a democratic candidate for president. They'll love this guy in NH. There they might be keen on processing rather than the process itself.
I read an article recently about the Silicon Valley, and an analogy was brought out with respect to forest fires. It was suggested that periodic fires burning underbrush and weaker trees renew the entire forest region, and thus it was explained, allow it to grow and spread again. There wasn't any mention of greed, lack of managerial skills, and China. I suggest they burn the newspaper that printed this article which insults the intelligence of those feeling pain in the Silicon Valley. There are huge amounts of talented individuals without jobs and with little hope of getting a job. I have previously mentioned that one sixth of the area's space is comprised of vacant office buildings etc. There is real hurt there, and re-growth is not around the corner. Retrenchment will be the call for a long long time.
Take Cisco. Please! No one cares that their earnings improved for the past quarter. Their sales were down and Chambers said customers are even more cautious than they were at the beginning of the second quarter, and forecast another possible dip for this period. He sees no quick upturn for tech spending. He's not alone in this view.
Ted Turner will be making a move to Florida near Tallahassee for tax reasons. Florida hasn't any personal state income tax. When and if he sells his AOL stock, that will save him a wad of cash. Good for him.
AIG raises their liability reserves by $2.8 billion.
Germany's unemployment rate rose to a 5 year high.
Once again the dollar is nearing a new 4 year low vs the euro.
Senator Kent Conrad, D-N.D. "the president is taking us into an absolute swamp of deficit and debt...unparalleled in our nation's history." What would someone from ND know from swamps?
There were 132,000 job cuts in January. That's one soft patch.
Blix warns Iraq "it is five minutes to midnight." Does he really think Saddam gives a crap about the time? A little insight into Blix came when he stated "we do not have the same determination on substance as we have on process." I wonder whether he is thinking of dual citizenship and tossing his hat in the ring as a democratic candidate for president. They'll love this guy in NH. There they might be keen on processing rather than the process itself.
Tuesday, February 04, 2003
2/4/03 20 Inches
Come on now. Let's not go there. This is not an x-rated blog! I'm talking the Columbia. A 20 inch piece of insulation weighing 2.67 pounds peeled off a spot where the orbiter is coupled to the external tank. It was this insulating foam which struck Columbia's left wing during takeoff. Tile damage from insulation had never been a prior a problem, and hence, not considered by NASA engineers.
After 64 days the Venezuelan oil strike is sort of over. Let's say it's fading.
With the consumer's weekend focus on the Columbia tragedy, retail sales at U.S. chain stores were down for the latest week.
American Airlines is burning thru $5 million per day. How long can that continue? The company has $2 billion in unrestricted cash on the balance sheet.
Georgia is set to lose 9000 jobs in 2003. During the past two years the state has lost 123,000 jobs.
Organizers of the Comdex computer trade show filed for chapter 11.
Gold is trading at a 7 year high.
Ericcson's losses widened in the quarter.
Germany's three largest banks will post their first yearly losses since WW II.
U.S. auto sales dropped in January.
The January ISM index dropped from the December level.
For all of you romantics with France on your mind, France's consumer sentiment is at a 5 year low and their unemployment rate is above 9%. France's pension system is shortly to be in a deficit position as the number of retirees swells.
Jean-Pascal Beaufret, Alcatel Sa CFO, "2003 will be a difficult year." Alcatel is eliminating 40% of their workforce!
Does anyone consider how little print coverage there is of the Fed? Greenspan had been on every front page of every newspaper and magazine. He's still very much alive. As I have said so often, the Fed is not the marketplace. The latter is king and not the Fed. Maybe Greenspan will retire to France and wow their economic system.
Come on now. Let's not go there. This is not an x-rated blog! I'm talking the Columbia. A 20 inch piece of insulation weighing 2.67 pounds peeled off a spot where the orbiter is coupled to the external tank. It was this insulating foam which struck Columbia's left wing during takeoff. Tile damage from insulation had never been a prior a problem, and hence, not considered by NASA engineers.
After 64 days the Venezuelan oil strike is sort of over. Let's say it's fading.
With the consumer's weekend focus on the Columbia tragedy, retail sales at U.S. chain stores were down for the latest week.
American Airlines is burning thru $5 million per day. How long can that continue? The company has $2 billion in unrestricted cash on the balance sheet.
Georgia is set to lose 9000 jobs in 2003. During the past two years the state has lost 123,000 jobs.
Organizers of the Comdex computer trade show filed for chapter 11.
Gold is trading at a 7 year high.
Ericcson's losses widened in the quarter.
Germany's three largest banks will post their first yearly losses since WW II.
U.S. auto sales dropped in January.
The January ISM index dropped from the December level.
For all of you romantics with France on your mind, France's consumer sentiment is at a 5 year low and their unemployment rate is above 9%. France's pension system is shortly to be in a deficit position as the number of retirees swells.
Jean-Pascal Beaufret, Alcatel Sa CFO, "2003 will be a difficult year." Alcatel is eliminating 40% of their workforce!
Does anyone consider how little print coverage there is of the Fed? Greenspan had been on every front page of every newspaper and magazine. He's still very much alive. As I have said so often, the Fed is not the marketplace. The latter is king and not the Fed. Maybe Greenspan will retire to France and wow their economic system.
Monday, February 03, 2003
2/3/03 Economic Debris Sheds Over The U.S.
I had planned to write on this subject yesterday; however, the Columbia tragedy took center stage, and rightly so. Just to set the record straight, I have been up all night, but that doesn't mean I'm cranky. I'm not a moody guy. I don't like it when others insult our intelligence and think it's business as usual.
I'm referring to the $2.23 trillion budget which the President plans to present to Congress. Think about this. Who has a budget of that size for a $10 trillion GDP? Remember please the consumer- that's us- is responsible for at least two-thirds of the GDP. Then healthcare represents another 15%. Those two numbers amount to about $8.2 trillion, and the latter subtracted from $10 trillion leaves only $1.8 trillion. Of the $1.8 trillion a good deal is comprised of services. As you can see, the government essentially generates no GDP. So what are we getting for that $2.23 trillion? Essentially protection via our military. The rest goes to support government agencies and/or appendages. We could eliminate two-thirds of the latter, and not miss a thing. Maybe then we wouldn't expect to see budget deficits for the next ten years. At least that's what the budget office is projecting. Their projections are so pathetic that they are an embarrassment. In fact, this budget is an embarrassment. It is worthless debris scattered over the American public's checkbooks. Wake up and smell the spending. It's rancid. This excessive spending is undermining our sovereignty and our homeland security. Unleashed government spending is a weapon of mass destruction!
I had planned to write on this subject yesterday; however, the Columbia tragedy took center stage, and rightly so. Just to set the record straight, I have been up all night, but that doesn't mean I'm cranky. I'm not a moody guy. I don't like it when others insult our intelligence and think it's business as usual.
I'm referring to the $2.23 trillion budget which the President plans to present to Congress. Think about this. Who has a budget of that size for a $10 trillion GDP? Remember please the consumer- that's us- is responsible for at least two-thirds of the GDP. Then healthcare represents another 15%. Those two numbers amount to about $8.2 trillion, and the latter subtracted from $10 trillion leaves only $1.8 trillion. Of the $1.8 trillion a good deal is comprised of services. As you can see, the government essentially generates no GDP. So what are we getting for that $2.23 trillion? Essentially protection via our military. The rest goes to support government agencies and/or appendages. We could eliminate two-thirds of the latter, and not miss a thing. Maybe then we wouldn't expect to see budget deficits for the next ten years. At least that's what the budget office is projecting. Their projections are so pathetic that they are an embarrassment. In fact, this budget is an embarrassment. It is worthless debris scattered over the American public's checkbooks. Wake up and smell the spending. It's rancid. This excessive spending is undermining our sovereignty and our homeland security. Unleashed government spending is a weapon of mass destruction!
Sunday, February 02, 2003
2/2/03 Someone Always Has It Worse Than You
The same Ames, Iowa couple who lost their son in the 911 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center mourn the death of their niece, Astronaut Laurel Clark, one of seven astronauts on board Columbia. Whether it was a heat problem, a tile problem, or a wing problem that is the cause, I would like to believe that this country does not require a tragedy to reflect on the value of life. To put matters in perspective, Ilan Ramon's Torah scroll survived the Auschwitz concentration camp, but it was destroyed in the Columbia explosion.
Don Nelson, a longtime NASA supervisor and mission planner going back to the first lunar missions, left NASA four years ago because of grave concerns about its safety program. In August he wrote to President Bush saying it was his "duty to inform you that our space shuttle astronauts are in eminent danger. Your intervention is required to prevent another catastrophic shuttle accident." He received a December 4 reply from the director of the Office of Science and Technology which stated that "NASA places a high priority on safety and has instituted a program of developing and implementing safety upgrades to reduce the risk to space shuttle crews." On December 21 Nelson replied with another letter to the White House and said "I assume that you are aware there never has been a launch vehicle that has not had multiple catastrophic failures."
As we learned yesterday, it only takes one overwhelming failure to produce a national mourning for our space heroes.
The same Ames, Iowa couple who lost their son in the 911 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center mourn the death of their niece, Astronaut Laurel Clark, one of seven astronauts on board Columbia. Whether it was a heat problem, a tile problem, or a wing problem that is the cause, I would like to believe that this country does not require a tragedy to reflect on the value of life. To put matters in perspective, Ilan Ramon's Torah scroll survived the Auschwitz concentration camp, but it was destroyed in the Columbia explosion.
Don Nelson, a longtime NASA supervisor and mission planner going back to the first lunar missions, left NASA four years ago because of grave concerns about its safety program. In August he wrote to President Bush saying it was his "duty to inform you that our space shuttle astronauts are in eminent danger. Your intervention is required to prevent another catastrophic shuttle accident." He received a December 4 reply from the director of the Office of Science and Technology which stated that "NASA places a high priority on safety and has instituted a program of developing and implementing safety upgrades to reduce the risk to space shuttle crews." On December 21 Nelson replied with another letter to the White House and said "I assume that you are aware there never has been a launch vehicle that has not had multiple catastrophic failures."
As we learned yesterday, it only takes one overwhelming failure to produce a national mourning for our space heroes.
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