11/3/04 I Don’t Get Politics
After spending untold hours studying the political
landscape, I realize I understand very little. If
Ohioans stated that the economy was the number one
factor in their voting decision, and hundreds of
thousands of jobs were lost during Bush’s term of
office, then one might conclude that Ohio would
comfortably go for Kerry. Of all the states, Ohio has
been hit hardest by the loss of jobs. It was
unthinkable on my part that Ohio could go in the Bush
win column. After all, statewide voter turnout in Ohio
ran close to 72 plus percent. In fact, when it came to
voting for a president, 5.4 million Ohioans voted, up
from 4.8 million in 2000.
I realized some weeks back that the nationwide voter
turnout would be huge. I thought that first-time
voters would heavily favor Kerry. I never believed
that the increased votes from four million white male
weekly churchgoers would give Bush a 3% edge in the
popular vote. I never thought that “moral family
values” would topple the economy in the minds of so
many Americans in the voting booth. That thought still
blows my mind.
Now we wait for the provisional and absentee ballots
to be counted in Ohio. With Bush leading by 136,000
votes, it would take a miracle for a Kerry win. Local
Ohio boards don’t begin to count these provisional and
absentee ballots until November 13, and the boards
have until December 1 to certify the final results. In
the meantime, the nation will assume a Bush victory.
One might ask how is it possible that Bush’s approval
rating trailed the percentage of the votes he
garnered? I can’t answer that. If every poll showed
that a majority of Americans disapproved of Bush’s
handling of the Iraq war and the economy, then how
could he win a majority of the popular vote? There are
over 58 million Americans who came out and voted for
Bush. He will win at least 30 states.
Through the evening I kept thinking that over the past
year the unemployment rate has declined because the
labor force is shrinking. There are so many
discouraged workers. Were they so discouraged that
they did not vote in Ohio? How is it they voted in
Pennsylvania? During the month of September, 1,100
people left the Pennsylvania job market. It’s
statistics like this in Ohio that should have made a
big difference.
There is good news though. Bush will make the tax cuts
permanent. You’ll still be able to get a tax deduction
for buying a large Hummer. After Oct. 22, deductions
for such vehicles and other large SUVs were capped at
$25,000. Of course, there will be an offset. The
deficits will continue to increase, but it’s ok
because deficits don’t matter. Right? The stock market
will rally out of the box this morning. Traders can
depend on four more years of the same. Nothing will
change. Right?
Challenger, Gray, & Christmas stated layoff
announcements by U.S. companies fell 5.6% in October
to 101,840; however, it was the second straight month
that layoffs remained above 100,000, for the first
time since January-February 2003. Layoffs don’t
matter. Right?
Some time today we’ll find out the final vote tally in
Iowa. It obviously doesn’t matter that Iowa lost
27,000 manufacturing jobs during Bush’s presidency.
The seven electoral votes in Iowa don’t matter either.
They can’t tip the election results.
I have to hand it to Bush. His lack of performance
over the past four years could not defeat him. At the
end of the election night, Trump was not there to say
"you're fired."
Wednesday, November 03, 2004
Tuesday, November 02, 2004
11/2/04 Bush Defeats Bush
John Kerry will be our new president and he will win by a very comfortable margin. In the end, however, it will be Bush who defeated Bush. He could not master the job as CEO and Commander-in-Chief of our country. Wall Street is still in denial. Last evening, Tradesports.com had Bush winning 53% to 47%. Interestingly, by comparison, we witnessed early voting in 31 states. By my analysis, in the early voting that ended last night, Kerry was leading by 5 percentage points.
According to the survey conducted at the Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, 65% of respondents at the top 30 economics departments gave Bush’s economics policies an overall rating of “poor.” Eighty-seven percent of respondents thought Bush’s series of tax cuts were poorly designed to provide fiscal stimulus. When asked which candidate would be more beneficial to an average elderly American, the choice was Kerry by a margin of 16 to 1. For a family of four earning $50,000 a year, the margin was 14 to 1. For a new college graduate entering the workforce, the margin was 5 to 1.
The U.S. federal government is expected to borrow $100 billion in the final quarter of 2004 to pay for the budget deficits, according to the Treasury Dept. For the first quarter of 2005, the government expects to borrow a record $147 billion. From whom?
In Florida, nearly 2 ½ times the number of people who voted in early 2000 cast their ballots through early or absentee voting this election. By the time today’s election takes place today, it is likely that some of the early voters will have passed on. You see, 455 voting-age people die in Florida each day. In sum, Bush may have been stiffed by a stiff.
Helen Thomas: “The U.S. attack on Iraq is a clear violation of international law and has made us helpless to condemn others for similar acts.”
According to the Santa Clara University Business Index, Silicon Valley business leaders think a John Kerry presidency would benefit the Silicon Valley economy more than continuing with Bush. Lack of job creation, the fear of burgeoning federal deficits, and his handling of the overall economy are three reasons for the disappointment expressed in Bush.
Bush: “A low voter turnout is an indication of fewer people going to the polls.”
According to a recent survey taken by Columbus, Ohio-based Opinion Strategies Inc., 31% of Ohioans think the top national issue is the economy, followed by foreign policy (28%), health care (15%), and homeland security (8%). Importantly, 17% of respondents expect a brighter future, while 24% anticipate economic conditions to deteriorate. Similarly, 12% stated their personal or family well-being was improved from 2003, but 31% replied that it had declined. In addition, 57% think little or no progress has been made in the war on terrorism, and 69% see little or no progress in Iraq. In view of the above, I believe Kerry will carry Ohio by at least 5 percentage points.
Bush: “Well, I think if you say you’re going to do something and don’t do it, that’s trustworthiness.”
A total of 40,000 users have logged their choices for Republican and Democratic-themed musical playlists on bluebeat.com. As of last evening, Kerry’s lead over Bush has widened to 11 points.
In October, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index declined to 56.8, a 13-month low, from 58.5 in September. The production index fell to 58.9 from 61.6 in the prior month. It was the lowest level since July 2003. The employment idex dropped to 54.8, the lowest since January, from 58.1 in September. The index of inventories index fell to 48.2 from 51, and the backlog of orders index dropped to 49, the first contraction since April 2003, from 55. Unfortunately, the prices paid index rose to 78.5 from 76, while the customer index fell to 43.5%. In sum, the soft patch in manufacturing has accelerated in October. Of course, you won’t hear a Fed governor tell you that.
As of November 1, at least 1,122 members of the U.S. military have died since the beginning of the Iraq war in March 2003.
AOL is cutting more than 700 workers. The Stuart, Florida Vought Aircraft plant has layoffs starting today and continuing through February 2006. The facility will be closed.
May Dept Stores same-store sales fell 2.3% in October.
Yesterday, we experienced a welcome respite in the crude oil market as the price declined to $50 a barrel. How many really believed six months ago that we would be cheering a drop to the $50 price level?
Manfred Kurz, an economist at Bayerische Landesbank in Munich: “When purchasing power falls, there’s less money to go around.”
Yesterday, National Semiconductor lowered its revenue guidance for its quarter ending November 28 to a range of $445 million to $450 million, down approximately 18% to 19% sequentially from the prior quarter. Previously, the company had expected that the quarterly revenues would be down 8% to 10% sequentially. The company’s chairman, president, and CEO stated “inventory adjustments and lower-than-typical seasonality have been the themes so far this quarter.” Distributor resale rates of their products have not picked up through October, and this is not typical for the pre-holiday season. Demand from certain customers in Asia for handset and display products have also remained weak, due in part to excess supply in those channels, the company stated.
There is some good news. According to Hewitt Associates, companies nationwide are planning to give their employees a 3.6% boost in their base pay next year, up from 3.4% they parceled out this year. Unfortunately, these wage gains are being offset by rising health insurance costs. Hewitt stated that average out-of-pocket medical expenses have soared to $1,030 this year, up from $383 in 1998. In addition, the nation’s workers on average will pay $1,565 in health care premiums, up from $630 in 1998.
The nation's chain store same-store sales declined 0.3% in the week ended Oct. 30 compared to the prior week. It was the third consecutive week-to-week decline, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS.
John Kerry will be our new president and he will win by a very comfortable margin. In the end, however, it will be Bush who defeated Bush. He could not master the job as CEO and Commander-in-Chief of our country. Wall Street is still in denial. Last evening, Tradesports.com had Bush winning 53% to 47%. Interestingly, by comparison, we witnessed early voting in 31 states. By my analysis, in the early voting that ended last night, Kerry was leading by 5 percentage points.
According to the survey conducted at the Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, 65% of respondents at the top 30 economics departments gave Bush’s economics policies an overall rating of “poor.” Eighty-seven percent of respondents thought Bush’s series of tax cuts were poorly designed to provide fiscal stimulus. When asked which candidate would be more beneficial to an average elderly American, the choice was Kerry by a margin of 16 to 1. For a family of four earning $50,000 a year, the margin was 14 to 1. For a new college graduate entering the workforce, the margin was 5 to 1.
The U.S. federal government is expected to borrow $100 billion in the final quarter of 2004 to pay for the budget deficits, according to the Treasury Dept. For the first quarter of 2005, the government expects to borrow a record $147 billion. From whom?
In Florida, nearly 2 ½ times the number of people who voted in early 2000 cast their ballots through early or absentee voting this election. By the time today’s election takes place today, it is likely that some of the early voters will have passed on. You see, 455 voting-age people die in Florida each day. In sum, Bush may have been stiffed by a stiff.
Helen Thomas: “The U.S. attack on Iraq is a clear violation of international law and has made us helpless to condemn others for similar acts.”
According to the Santa Clara University Business Index, Silicon Valley business leaders think a John Kerry presidency would benefit the Silicon Valley economy more than continuing with Bush. Lack of job creation, the fear of burgeoning federal deficits, and his handling of the overall economy are three reasons for the disappointment expressed in Bush.
Bush: “A low voter turnout is an indication of fewer people going to the polls.”
According to a recent survey taken by Columbus, Ohio-based Opinion Strategies Inc., 31% of Ohioans think the top national issue is the economy, followed by foreign policy (28%), health care (15%), and homeland security (8%). Importantly, 17% of respondents expect a brighter future, while 24% anticipate economic conditions to deteriorate. Similarly, 12% stated their personal or family well-being was improved from 2003, but 31% replied that it had declined. In addition, 57% think little or no progress has been made in the war on terrorism, and 69% see little or no progress in Iraq. In view of the above, I believe Kerry will carry Ohio by at least 5 percentage points.
Bush: “Well, I think if you say you’re going to do something and don’t do it, that’s trustworthiness.”
A total of 40,000 users have logged their choices for Republican and Democratic-themed musical playlists on bluebeat.com. As of last evening, Kerry’s lead over Bush has widened to 11 points.
In October, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index declined to 56.8, a 13-month low, from 58.5 in September. The production index fell to 58.9 from 61.6 in the prior month. It was the lowest level since July 2003. The employment idex dropped to 54.8, the lowest since January, from 58.1 in September. The index of inventories index fell to 48.2 from 51, and the backlog of orders index dropped to 49, the first contraction since April 2003, from 55. Unfortunately, the prices paid index rose to 78.5 from 76, while the customer index fell to 43.5%. In sum, the soft patch in manufacturing has accelerated in October. Of course, you won’t hear a Fed governor tell you that.
As of November 1, at least 1,122 members of the U.S. military have died since the beginning of the Iraq war in March 2003.
AOL is cutting more than 700 workers. The Stuart, Florida Vought Aircraft plant has layoffs starting today and continuing through February 2006. The facility will be closed.
May Dept Stores same-store sales fell 2.3% in October.
Yesterday, we experienced a welcome respite in the crude oil market as the price declined to $50 a barrel. How many really believed six months ago that we would be cheering a drop to the $50 price level?
Manfred Kurz, an economist at Bayerische Landesbank in Munich: “When purchasing power falls, there’s less money to go around.”
Yesterday, National Semiconductor lowered its revenue guidance for its quarter ending November 28 to a range of $445 million to $450 million, down approximately 18% to 19% sequentially from the prior quarter. Previously, the company had expected that the quarterly revenues would be down 8% to 10% sequentially. The company’s chairman, president, and CEO stated “inventory adjustments and lower-than-typical seasonality have been the themes so far this quarter.” Distributor resale rates of their products have not picked up through October, and this is not typical for the pre-holiday season. Demand from certain customers in Asia for handset and display products have also remained weak, due in part to excess supply in those channels, the company stated.
There is some good news. According to Hewitt Associates, companies nationwide are planning to give their employees a 3.6% boost in their base pay next year, up from 3.4% they parceled out this year. Unfortunately, these wage gains are being offset by rising health insurance costs. Hewitt stated that average out-of-pocket medical expenses have soared to $1,030 this year, up from $383 in 1998. In addition, the nation’s workers on average will pay $1,565 in health care premiums, up from $630 in 1998.
The nation's chain store same-store sales declined 0.3% in the week ended Oct. 30 compared to the prior week. It was the third consecutive week-to-week decline, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS.
Monday, November 01, 2004
11/1/04 Make Your Day. Make A Difference. Vote Tomorrow.
John F. Kennedy: '"The high office of President has been used to foment a plot to destroy the Americans freedom, and before I leave office I must inform the citizen of his plight."
All voters support our troops, but less than half support the war in Iraq. Our total military presence in Iraq has just been increased to 142,000, the highest level since the summer of 2003. That does not sound like we're making progress in our occupation.
A deputy governor of Baghdad was gunned down on Monday, and two bodyguards were injured.
In the September quarter, Toyota's sales increased 9.4% but net income declined 1.5% as increased incentives cut into operating margins. When a great company experiences tough going, it's no wonder GM and Ford are mired in manure.
Depending on the voter's choice of poison, it appears to be fear over terrorism and/or fear over the economy. Some predict 120 million votes will be cast in this election. Republicans claim they have registered 3.4 million new voters and Democrats proclaim registering twice that number.
The U.S. strategic oil reserve now holds about 670 million barrels of crude oil, close to its 700 million barrel capacity. At $52 a barrel, that's not chump change.
Nigeria is the fifth-largest source of U.S. crude and exports around 2.5 million barrels daily. On Sunday, the country's main labor union called for a nationwide strike on November 16.
John Glenn: "I think the people are beginning to shift. And I'm not gonna predict a landslide, but I'm gonna predict a victory next Tuesday."
So much for buying on the cheap and lowering its offer. Oracle raised its bid for PeopleSoft from $21 to $24 per share.
Clint Eastwood: "This film cost $31 million. With that kind of money, I could have invaded some country."
Bruce Springsteen: "The country we carry in our hearts is waiting, and together we can move America toward her deepest ideals."
DoubleClick retained Lazard Freres in an effort to explore ways to increase shareholder value.
John F. Kennedy: '"The high office of President has been used to foment a plot to destroy the Americans freedom, and before I leave office I must inform the citizen of his plight."
All voters support our troops, but less than half support the war in Iraq. Our total military presence in Iraq has just been increased to 142,000, the highest level since the summer of 2003. That does not sound like we're making progress in our occupation.
A deputy governor of Baghdad was gunned down on Monday, and two bodyguards were injured.
In the September quarter, Toyota's sales increased 9.4% but net income declined 1.5% as increased incentives cut into operating margins. When a great company experiences tough going, it's no wonder GM and Ford are mired in manure.
Depending on the voter's choice of poison, it appears to be fear over terrorism and/or fear over the economy. Some predict 120 million votes will be cast in this election. Republicans claim they have registered 3.4 million new voters and Democrats proclaim registering twice that number.
The U.S. strategic oil reserve now holds about 670 million barrels of crude oil, close to its 700 million barrel capacity. At $52 a barrel, that's not chump change.
Nigeria is the fifth-largest source of U.S. crude and exports around 2.5 million barrels daily. On Sunday, the country's main labor union called for a nationwide strike on November 16.
John Glenn: "I think the people are beginning to shift. And I'm not gonna predict a landslide, but I'm gonna predict a victory next Tuesday."
So much for buying on the cheap and lowering its offer. Oracle raised its bid for PeopleSoft from $21 to $24 per share.
Clint Eastwood: "This film cost $31 million. With that kind of money, I could have invaded some country."
Bruce Springsteen: "The country we carry in our hearts is waiting, and together we can move America toward her deepest ideals."
DoubleClick retained Lazard Freres in an effort to explore ways to increase shareholder value.
Sunday, October 31, 2004
10/31/04 Face The facts
Early this morning we turned back the clock; however, you can’t turn the clock back on the truth or on the facts. Simply put, that is the main reason Bush will lose on Tuesday. Yes, Kerry will win, but it is more about Bush beating Bush.
Bhagavad Gita: "Fear not what is not real, never was and never will be. What is real, always was and cannot be destroyed."
Yesterday, nine U.S. marines were killed and nine others wounded in Iraq. It was the most U.S. deaths on a single day since May 2. Since our invasion of Iraq, at least 1,121 of our fighting men and women have been killed. According to the Lancet, a British medical journal, U.S. and coalition forces have killed 100,000 Iraqi civilians since the fall of Saddam Hussein on April 9, 2003. This report is based on extensive household survey research in Iraq in September 2004.
Nearly 2 million have voted early in Florida.
Iowa has lost 27,000 manufacturing jobs during Bush’s presidency. This fact will play an important role in Bush losing Iowa on Tuesday.
According to the National Council of State Legislatures, Congress owes the states a minimum of $50 billion for fiscal 2004 and 2005 for federally mandated programs that were not fully funded by Washington. So how were state budgets balanced? Services were cut and taxes increased. Property taxes rose an average of 10% in the past year.
The Census Bureau estimates that 5.2 million Americans lost health insurance since Bush arrived at the White House.
Increasing homeowner’s insurance rates have partially offset lower mortgage payments that have resulted from lower interest rates.
According to Bloomberg data, over the past four years the U.S. CPI has outpaced personal income growth.
Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize winner in economics and a professor at Columbia University: “The dividend tax cut was the most egregious and provided no (economic and job-producing) stimulus.”
According to the federal Energy Information Administration, the U.S. will consume about 7.5 billion barrels of oil this year, 27.4% more than in 1981, the peak year for oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis.
According to McKinsey & Co., about $1 billion is invested in China per week.
According to the Economic Policy Institute, even with the tax breaks of 2001 and 2003, “all (middle-income) fixed-family types except single mothers experienced a drop in after-tax income—a decline of 0.2% for two-parent families and of 1.4% for young singles and elderly couples.”
Pollster John Zogby: “Months ago I said I thought John Kerry would win…I am sticking with that prediction…This is a referendum on George W. Bush and we see an incumbent polling at 47-48 percent. That is not enough to win.”
The Census Bureau said in August that the ranks of the uninsured and the impoverished grew in 2003 for the third consecutive year, with the number living in poverty rising 1.3 million to 35.8 million. A new Agriculture Report will show an increase in the number of households that either don’t have access to enough food or have experienced hunger.
There are about 42 million Americans aged 18 to 34, and only 36% of 18 to 24 year-olds voted in 2000, compared with 72% of 65 to 72 year-olds. A much higher percentage of 18 to 24 year-olds will vote in this election. It will prove a major reason for Bush not being re-elected.
Visteon was separated from Ford more than four years ago. The company is facing heavy losses, and an aggressive restructuring is in the works. They employ 21,000 workers in southeast Michigan. Visteon plans major cutbacks and will sell or close several unprofitable factories, cutting a portion of its 8,500 U.S. salaried employees and hastening the transfer of factory workers back to Ford. Visteon has worldwide sales of $18 billion and is the second-largest U.S. automotive supplier. Visteon still has 18,000 Ford employees making an average wage of $25 an hour in its factories. New workers receive $14 an hour at Visteon. Do not be surprised to see Visteon go to a four-day work- week to reduce labor costs.
The problems at Visteon highlight current conditions at GM and Ford. They operate too many plants, have too many employees, wages and benefits are much higher than those of competitors, and the inventory levels require cutting back. By running the plants at about a 17 million yearly car rate, the nation’s GDP growth has been overstated for all of 2004. Increased incentives and rising profits in their financing divisions have masked the growing existence of many unprofitable factories and the declining market share for both companies. Unless escalating problems are addressed, stockholders will be left holding the bag.
On election day 2000 the euro was worth 86 cents. On election day 2004 it will be worth about $1.28. So much for the purchasing power of all Americans!
Bunnatine Greenhouse does not preside over our government’s policy on global warming . She is the Army Corps of Engineers top contracting officer. She wrote on October 5 to Lt. Gen. Carl Strock, commander of the Army Corps of Engineers, that Halliburton’s extended troop support contract in the Balkans should not be extended and that “there is little or no incentive for the contractor to reduce or keep cost down…it is not reasonable to believe that only one source responded to the solicitation…the general feeling in the theatre is that the contractor is ‘out of control,’” She went on to say that contracting officials must work as a team because “divided- the contractor will eat our lunch.”
Ghostzapper has the potential to be the best horse since Secretariat. This one is the real deal.
Albert Einstein: "Many of the things you can count, don't count. Many of the things you can't count, really count."
Early this morning we turned back the clock; however, you can’t turn the clock back on the truth or on the facts. Simply put, that is the main reason Bush will lose on Tuesday. Yes, Kerry will win, but it is more about Bush beating Bush.
Bhagavad Gita: "Fear not what is not real, never was and never will be. What is real, always was and cannot be destroyed."
Yesterday, nine U.S. marines were killed and nine others wounded in Iraq. It was the most U.S. deaths on a single day since May 2. Since our invasion of Iraq, at least 1,121 of our fighting men and women have been killed. According to the Lancet, a British medical journal, U.S. and coalition forces have killed 100,000 Iraqi civilians since the fall of Saddam Hussein on April 9, 2003. This report is based on extensive household survey research in Iraq in September 2004.
Nearly 2 million have voted early in Florida.
Iowa has lost 27,000 manufacturing jobs during Bush’s presidency. This fact will play an important role in Bush losing Iowa on Tuesday.
According to the National Council of State Legislatures, Congress owes the states a minimum of $50 billion for fiscal 2004 and 2005 for federally mandated programs that were not fully funded by Washington. So how were state budgets balanced? Services were cut and taxes increased. Property taxes rose an average of 10% in the past year.
The Census Bureau estimates that 5.2 million Americans lost health insurance since Bush arrived at the White House.
Increasing homeowner’s insurance rates have partially offset lower mortgage payments that have resulted from lower interest rates.
According to Bloomberg data, over the past four years the U.S. CPI has outpaced personal income growth.
Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize winner in economics and a professor at Columbia University: “The dividend tax cut was the most egregious and provided no (economic and job-producing) stimulus.”
According to the federal Energy Information Administration, the U.S. will consume about 7.5 billion barrels of oil this year, 27.4% more than in 1981, the peak year for oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis.
According to McKinsey & Co., about $1 billion is invested in China per week.
According to the Economic Policy Institute, even with the tax breaks of 2001 and 2003, “all (middle-income) fixed-family types except single mothers experienced a drop in after-tax income—a decline of 0.2% for two-parent families and of 1.4% for young singles and elderly couples.”
Pollster John Zogby: “Months ago I said I thought John Kerry would win…I am sticking with that prediction…This is a referendum on George W. Bush and we see an incumbent polling at 47-48 percent. That is not enough to win.”
The Census Bureau said in August that the ranks of the uninsured and the impoverished grew in 2003 for the third consecutive year, with the number living in poverty rising 1.3 million to 35.8 million. A new Agriculture Report will show an increase in the number of households that either don’t have access to enough food or have experienced hunger.
There are about 42 million Americans aged 18 to 34, and only 36% of 18 to 24 year-olds voted in 2000, compared with 72% of 65 to 72 year-olds. A much higher percentage of 18 to 24 year-olds will vote in this election. It will prove a major reason for Bush not being re-elected.
Visteon was separated from Ford more than four years ago. The company is facing heavy losses, and an aggressive restructuring is in the works. They employ 21,000 workers in southeast Michigan. Visteon plans major cutbacks and will sell or close several unprofitable factories, cutting a portion of its 8,500 U.S. salaried employees and hastening the transfer of factory workers back to Ford. Visteon has worldwide sales of $18 billion and is the second-largest U.S. automotive supplier. Visteon still has 18,000 Ford employees making an average wage of $25 an hour in its factories. New workers receive $14 an hour at Visteon. Do not be surprised to see Visteon go to a four-day work- week to reduce labor costs.
The problems at Visteon highlight current conditions at GM and Ford. They operate too many plants, have too many employees, wages and benefits are much higher than those of competitors, and the inventory levels require cutting back. By running the plants at about a 17 million yearly car rate, the nation’s GDP growth has been overstated for all of 2004. Increased incentives and rising profits in their financing divisions have masked the growing existence of many unprofitable factories and the declining market share for both companies. Unless escalating problems are addressed, stockholders will be left holding the bag.
On election day 2000 the euro was worth 86 cents. On election day 2004 it will be worth about $1.28. So much for the purchasing power of all Americans!
Bunnatine Greenhouse does not preside over our government’s policy on global warming . She is the Army Corps of Engineers top contracting officer. She wrote on October 5 to Lt. Gen. Carl Strock, commander of the Army Corps of Engineers, that Halliburton’s extended troop support contract in the Balkans should not be extended and that “there is little or no incentive for the contractor to reduce or keep cost down…it is not reasonable to believe that only one source responded to the solicitation…the general feeling in the theatre is that the contractor is ‘out of control,’” She went on to say that contracting officials must work as a team because “divided- the contractor will eat our lunch.”
Ghostzapper has the potential to be the best horse since Secretariat. This one is the real deal.
Albert Einstein: "Many of the things you can count, don't count. Many of the things you can't count, really count."
Saturday, October 30, 2004
10/30/04 On The Run
Bush: “The terrorists are on the run.”
Steven Wright: “A cop pulled me over for running a stop sign. He said ‘didn’t you see the stop sign?’ I said Yeah, but I don’t believe everything I read.”
Philip Stephens of the Financial Times: “But amid the avalanche of polling data from every district and state in the Union, two messages stand out. The first is that a majority of Americans think the country is going in the wrong direction; the second that only a minority believe Mr. Bush actually deserves a second term. My guess is that, when they come to look in the mirror next Tuesday, most Americans will prefer light over darkness- tough-minded realism abroad and tolerance at home over faith-based fundamentalism. I think Mr. Kerry will win- comfortably.”
In this year’s third quarter, real disposable income rose but 1.4% and the personal savings rate fell 0.4%, its lowest level since the Depression. Salaries rose 0.7% in the third quarter, and over the past year 2.4%, the smallest gain on record. Most Americans are worse off today than when Bush came into office. Come November 2, the voters will have Bush on the run—back to Crawford, Texas.
Robert Brusca, chief economist for FAO Economics: “Any GDP growth rate that does not create jobs in the amount averaging 150,000 per month is a growth rate that is not high enough. Period. This is the fourth quarter in a row in which GDP has grown faster than disposable personal income, not a trend that can be sustained.”
For the first time, metropolitan Phoenix is our nation’s top home-building market.
David Copperfield: “I could make the whole of Manhattan disappear into that (Jennifer Lopez’s) amazing butt.”
Since Bush ordered the invasion of Iraq, at least 1,112 of our U.S. fighting forces have been killed.
According to a recent research report by economists at Citigroup, the rise in energy prices may reduce 0.9 percentage point from four-quarter GDP growth. For the month of October, crude futures gained 5% even though they closed yesterday at $51.76 a barrel, about 6% below the prior week’s record close of $55.17.
According to the latest University of Michigan consumer confidence index, consumer sentiment declined to 91.7 in October, down from 94.2 in September.
Pilliod Inc. will close its Nichols, S.C. furniture plant next week, putting 133 people out of work. An increase of imported furniture and the “economic uncertainty of the American consumer” were given as reasons for the closing.
There is a continuing need to reduce overproduction at GM and Ford. Inventory levels remain too high. Delphi Corp.’s CFO Alan Dawes stated “clearly, there’s an inventory bubble, and the production cuts won’t be complete by the end of the quarter. Our plans for next year are going to have to take that into account.” Fourth quarter production cuts by GM and Ford will reduce fourth-quarter GDP growth.
Mexico is the largest consumer of soft drinks in the world. Each year, a total of 526 servings of Coke are consumed by every man, woman, and child in that country. Mexican Coca -Cola is not the same as U.S. Coca-Cola. It contains cane sugar and it comes in heavy glass bottles. It’s sweeter than the U.S. product made with corn syrup. With a growing Latino population in the U.S., management at Coke might consider returning to the original formula containing sugar and not corn syrup. It might cost a bit more to make but the demand over time has proven to be greater.
According to preliminary results, Wall-Mart's same-store sales rose 2.8% in October.
The market cap for eBay is $65 billion, for Google $52 billion, and for Yahoo $50 billion. IBM's market cap is $150 billion. Taking a long-term investment view, I would rather own one share of eBay, Google, and Yahoo, and be short one share of IBM. That strategy could incur a great deal of risk. On the other hand, I have greater confidence in the managements and business models at eBay, Google, and Yahoo.
Bush: “The terrorists are on the run.”
Steven Wright: “A cop pulled me over for running a stop sign. He said ‘didn’t you see the stop sign?’ I said Yeah, but I don’t believe everything I read.”
Philip Stephens of the Financial Times: “But amid the avalanche of polling data from every district and state in the Union, two messages stand out. The first is that a majority of Americans think the country is going in the wrong direction; the second that only a minority believe Mr. Bush actually deserves a second term. My guess is that, when they come to look in the mirror next Tuesday, most Americans will prefer light over darkness- tough-minded realism abroad and tolerance at home over faith-based fundamentalism. I think Mr. Kerry will win- comfortably.”
In this year’s third quarter, real disposable income rose but 1.4% and the personal savings rate fell 0.4%, its lowest level since the Depression. Salaries rose 0.7% in the third quarter, and over the past year 2.4%, the smallest gain on record. Most Americans are worse off today than when Bush came into office. Come November 2, the voters will have Bush on the run—back to Crawford, Texas.
Robert Brusca, chief economist for FAO Economics: “Any GDP growth rate that does not create jobs in the amount averaging 150,000 per month is a growth rate that is not high enough. Period. This is the fourth quarter in a row in which GDP has grown faster than disposable personal income, not a trend that can be sustained.”
For the first time, metropolitan Phoenix is our nation’s top home-building market.
David Copperfield: “I could make the whole of Manhattan disappear into that (Jennifer Lopez’s) amazing butt.”
Since Bush ordered the invasion of Iraq, at least 1,112 of our U.S. fighting forces have been killed.
According to a recent research report by economists at Citigroup, the rise in energy prices may reduce 0.9 percentage point from four-quarter GDP growth. For the month of October, crude futures gained 5% even though they closed yesterday at $51.76 a barrel, about 6% below the prior week’s record close of $55.17.
According to the latest University of Michigan consumer confidence index, consumer sentiment declined to 91.7 in October, down from 94.2 in September.
Pilliod Inc. will close its Nichols, S.C. furniture plant next week, putting 133 people out of work. An increase of imported furniture and the “economic uncertainty of the American consumer” were given as reasons for the closing.
There is a continuing need to reduce overproduction at GM and Ford. Inventory levels remain too high. Delphi Corp.’s CFO Alan Dawes stated “clearly, there’s an inventory bubble, and the production cuts won’t be complete by the end of the quarter. Our plans for next year are going to have to take that into account.” Fourth quarter production cuts by GM and Ford will reduce fourth-quarter GDP growth.
Mexico is the largest consumer of soft drinks in the world. Each year, a total of 526 servings of Coke are consumed by every man, woman, and child in that country. Mexican Coca -Cola is not the same as U.S. Coca-Cola. It contains cane sugar and it comes in heavy glass bottles. It’s sweeter than the U.S. product made with corn syrup. With a growing Latino population in the U.S., management at Coke might consider returning to the original formula containing sugar and not corn syrup. It might cost a bit more to make but the demand over time has proven to be greater.
According to preliminary results, Wall-Mart's same-store sales rose 2.8% in October.
The market cap for eBay is $65 billion, for Google $52 billion, and for Yahoo $50 billion. IBM's market cap is $150 billion. Taking a long-term investment view, I would rather own one share of eBay, Google, and Yahoo, and be short one share of IBM. That strategy could incur a great deal of risk. On the other hand, I have greater confidence in the managements and business models at eBay, Google, and Yahoo.
Friday, October 29, 2004
10/29/04 This Presidential Election Will Not Be Close
There are at least 15 million new registered voters, and 1.5 million are in Florida and 800,000 are found in Ohio. Of the new registered voters nationwide, Democrats hold a 3 to 2 advantage over Republicans. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) is the nation’s fastest growing public service employee union with 1.4 million members. They have 93,000 members in Pennsylvania, 53,000 in Minnesota, 120,000 in Ohio, and 30,000 in Ohio. In 2000, 68% of AFSCME members voted for Gore. In 2004, 90% of AFSCME’s membership, for example, is registered to vote in Iowa, a higher percentage than in 2000. AFSCME has aggressively mobilized its members on a nationwide basis. Their votes will make a difference.
GM will temporarily idle 5 plants early in 2005, laying off 9,000 workers. Ford will soon announce its plan for plant shutdowns and layoffs. MT Picture Display is closing its plant in Horseheads, N.Y. and cutting 800 jobs as well as cutting nearly 300 jobs at its Troy, Ohio plant.
Salazar is now leading Coors in the race for Ben Nighthorse’s Senate seat in Colorado. Maybe this is an indicator that Kerry will take Colorado.
The Conference Board’s Help-Wanted Advertising Index dipped one point in September to 36. It was 37 one year ago. In the last three months, help-wanted advertising declined in eight of the nine U.S. regions. Ken Goldstein, Conference Board economist, stated “with the Leading Economic Index declining for four straight months, the labor market could even be losing momentum going into the final months of 2004, and not just in the Midwest and Upper Plains.” In September 2004, the proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume was 25%, down from 49% the prior month and down from 43% a year earlier. This is not a soft patch. Speculators betting on rising interest rates and a stronger economy are the same speculators who have predicted a Bush win and greater job creation. They will be proven wrong again and again until they run out of capital. Sheep have a way of finding the path to the slaughterhouse.
Robert Orben: "More than ever before, Americans are suffering from back problems, back taxes, back rent, back auto payments."
China’s central bank raised its interest rates for the first time in nine years. The one-year lending and deposit rates will rise 0.27 percentage points to 5.58% and 2.25% respectively. It is an effort to slow their latest quarterly GDP 9.1% growth rate and their 5.2% September inflation rate. I have written several times that China had already banned loans to the auto, cement, and steel industries earlier this year. As a result, there has been a significant reduction in auto sales. China cannot continue to consume over half of the world’s cement output and over one-third of steel production without shortages and a sharp jump in prices. Slowing growth does not equate to zero growth. The recent price reduction in oil, copper, aluminum, nickel, and other commodities is healthy. This does not change the long-term trend of rising industrialization in China and India, for example. Investment in those countries will increase over the coming decades. China has a need to add jobs in its economy. Industrial output rose 16% in the last 12 months. China may raise interest rates again, but they will be careful to only cool the economy. Investors betting against the long-term growth trends in China and India will be carried out.
Will Rogers: "Be thankful we're not getting all the government we're paying for."
There are at least 15 million new registered voters, and 1.5 million are in Florida and 800,000 are found in Ohio. Of the new registered voters nationwide, Democrats hold a 3 to 2 advantage over Republicans. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) is the nation’s fastest growing public service employee union with 1.4 million members. They have 93,000 members in Pennsylvania, 53,000 in Minnesota, 120,000 in Ohio, and 30,000 in Ohio. In 2000, 68% of AFSCME members voted for Gore. In 2004, 90% of AFSCME’s membership, for example, is registered to vote in Iowa, a higher percentage than in 2000. AFSCME has aggressively mobilized its members on a nationwide basis. Their votes will make a difference.
GM will temporarily idle 5 plants early in 2005, laying off 9,000 workers. Ford will soon announce its plan for plant shutdowns and layoffs. MT Picture Display is closing its plant in Horseheads, N.Y. and cutting 800 jobs as well as cutting nearly 300 jobs at its Troy, Ohio plant.
Salazar is now leading Coors in the race for Ben Nighthorse’s Senate seat in Colorado. Maybe this is an indicator that Kerry will take Colorado.
The Conference Board’s Help-Wanted Advertising Index dipped one point in September to 36. It was 37 one year ago. In the last three months, help-wanted advertising declined in eight of the nine U.S. regions. Ken Goldstein, Conference Board economist, stated “with the Leading Economic Index declining for four straight months, the labor market could even be losing momentum going into the final months of 2004, and not just in the Midwest and Upper Plains.” In September 2004, the proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume was 25%, down from 49% the prior month and down from 43% a year earlier. This is not a soft patch. Speculators betting on rising interest rates and a stronger economy are the same speculators who have predicted a Bush win and greater job creation. They will be proven wrong again and again until they run out of capital. Sheep have a way of finding the path to the slaughterhouse.
Robert Orben: "More than ever before, Americans are suffering from back problems, back taxes, back rent, back auto payments."
China’s central bank raised its interest rates for the first time in nine years. The one-year lending and deposit rates will rise 0.27 percentage points to 5.58% and 2.25% respectively. It is an effort to slow their latest quarterly GDP 9.1% growth rate and their 5.2% September inflation rate. I have written several times that China had already banned loans to the auto, cement, and steel industries earlier this year. As a result, there has been a significant reduction in auto sales. China cannot continue to consume over half of the world’s cement output and over one-third of steel production without shortages and a sharp jump in prices. Slowing growth does not equate to zero growth. The recent price reduction in oil, copper, aluminum, nickel, and other commodities is healthy. This does not change the long-term trend of rising industrialization in China and India, for example. Investment in those countries will increase over the coming decades. China has a need to add jobs in its economy. Industrial output rose 16% in the last 12 months. China may raise interest rates again, but they will be careful to only cool the economy. Investors betting against the long-term growth trends in China and India will be carried out.
Will Rogers: "Be thankful we're not getting all the government we're paying for."
10/29/04 This Presidential Election Will Not Be Close
There are at least 15 million new registered voters, and 1.5 million are in Florida and 800,000 are found in Ohio. Of the new registered voters nationwide, Democrats hold a 3 to 2 advantage over Republicans. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) is the nation’s fastest growing public service employee union with 1.4 million members. They have 93,000 members in Pennsylvania, 53,000 in Minnesota, 120,000 in Ohio, and 30,000 in Ohio. In 2000, 68% of AFSCME members voted for Gore. In 2004, 90% of AFSCME’s membership, for example, is registered to vote in Iowa, a higher percentage than in 2000. AFSCME has aggressively mobilized its members on a nationwide basis. Their votes will make a difference.
GM will temporarily idle 5 plants early in 2005, laying off 9,000 workers. Ford will soon announce its plan for plant shutdowns and layoffs. MT Picture Display is closing its plant in Horseheads, N.Y. and cutting 800 jobs as well as cutting nearly 300 jobs at its Troy, Ohio plant.
Salazar is now leading Coors in the race for Ben Nighthorse’s Senate seat in Colorado. Maybe this is an indicator that Kerry will take Colorado.
The Conference Board’s Help-Wanted Advertising Index dipped one point in September to 36. It was 37 one year ago. In the last three months, help-wanted advertising declined in eight of the nine U.S. regions. Ken Goldstein, Conference Board economist, stated “with the Leading Economic Index declining for four straight months, the labor market could even be losing momentum going into the final months of 2004, and not just in the Midwest and Upper Plains.” In September 2004, the proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume was 25%, down from 49% the prior month and down from 43% a year earlier. This is not a soft patch. Speculators betting on rising interest rates and a stronger economy are the same speculators who have predicted a Bush win and greater job creation. They will be proven wrong again and again until they run out of capital. Sheep have a way of finding the path to the slaughterhouse.
Robert Orben: "More than ever before, Americans are suffering from back problems, back taxes, back rent, back auto payments."
China’s central bank raised its interest rates for the first time in nine years. The one-year lending and deposit rates will rise 0.27 percentage points to 5.58% and 2.25% respectively. It is an effort to slow their latest quarterly GDP 9.1% growth rate and their 5.2% September inflation rate. I have written several times that China had already banned loans to the auto, cement, and steel industries earlier this year. As a result, there has been a significant reduction in auto sales. China cannot continue to consume over half of the world’s cement output and over one-third of steel production without shortages and a sharp jump in prices. Slowing growth does not equate to zero growth. The recent price reduction in oil, copper, aluminum, nickel, and other commodities is healthy. This does not change the long-term trend of rising industrialization in China and India, for example. Investment in those countries will increase over the coming decades. China has a need to add jobs in its economy. Industrial output rose 16% in the last 12 months. China may raise interest rates again, but they will be careful to only cool the economy. Investors betting against the long-term growth trends in China and India will be carried out.
Will Rogers: "Be thankful we're not getting all the government we're paying for."
There are at least 15 million new registered voters, and 1.5 million are in Florida and 800,000 are found in Ohio. Of the new registered voters nationwide, Democrats hold a 3 to 2 advantage over Republicans. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) is the nation’s fastest growing public service employee union with 1.4 million members. They have 93,000 members in Pennsylvania, 53,000 in Minnesota, 120,000 in Ohio, and 30,000 in Ohio. In 2000, 68% of AFSCME members voted for Gore. In 2004, 90% of AFSCME’s membership, for example, is registered to vote in Iowa, a higher percentage than in 2000. AFSCME has aggressively mobilized its members on a nationwide basis. Their votes will make a difference.
GM will temporarily idle 5 plants early in 2005, laying off 9,000 workers. Ford will soon announce its plan for plant shutdowns and layoffs. MT Picture Display is closing its plant in Horseheads, N.Y. and cutting 800 jobs as well as cutting nearly 300 jobs at its Troy, Ohio plant.
Salazar is now leading Coors in the race for Ben Nighthorse’s Senate seat in Colorado. Maybe this is an indicator that Kerry will take Colorado.
The Conference Board’s Help-Wanted Advertising Index dipped one point in September to 36. It was 37 one year ago. In the last three months, help-wanted advertising declined in eight of the nine U.S. regions. Ken Goldstein, Conference Board economist, stated “with the Leading Economic Index declining for four straight months, the labor market could even be losing momentum going into the final months of 2004, and not just in the Midwest and Upper Plains.” In September 2004, the proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume was 25%, down from 49% the prior month and down from 43% a year earlier. This is not a soft patch. Speculators betting on rising interest rates and a stronger economy are the same speculators who have predicted a Bush win and greater job creation. They will be proven wrong again and again until they run out of capital. Sheep have a way of finding the path to the slaughterhouse.
Robert Orben: "More than ever before, Americans are suffering from back problems, back taxes, back rent, back auto payments."
China’s central bank raised its interest rates for the first time in nine years. The one-year lending and deposit rates will rise 0.27 percentage points to 5.58% and 2.25% respectively. It is an effort to slow their latest quarterly GDP 9.1% growth rate and their 5.2% September inflation rate. I have written several times that China had already banned loans to the auto, cement, and steel industries earlier this year. As a result, there has been a significant reduction in auto sales. China cannot continue to consume over half of the world’s cement output and over one-third of steel production without shortages and a sharp jump in prices. Slowing growth does not equate to zero growth. The recent price reduction in oil, copper, aluminum, nickel, and other commodities is healthy. This does not change the long-term trend of rising industrialization in China and India, for example. Investment in those countries will increase over the coming decades. China has a need to add jobs in its economy. Industrial output rose 16% in the last 12 months. China may raise interest rates again, but they will be careful to only cool the economy. Investors betting against the long-term growth trends in China and India will be carried out.
Will Rogers: "Be thankful we're not getting all the government we're paying for."
Thursday, October 28, 2004
10/28/04 Military Spending
Why did U.S. durable goods orders rise 0.2% in September? Orders derived from military spending increased 26.5% in the month. Total orders excluding military goods fell 0.9%, the biggest drop since April. U.S. September durable goods shipments fell 1.2%, the biggest drop in 13 months.The private sector soft patch continues. It is not surprising that the latest LA Times poll reveals that 51% of those polled disapprove of the way Bush is handling the economy. An Annenberg Center survey from Tuesday found 41% stated Bush’s policies have made the economy worse and 34% made the economy better.
Despite a decline in commercial airplane revenue, Boeing managed to earn 56 cents a share, up from 32 cents a year ago. How did this happen? The company enjoyed strong growth in its defense business PLUS a 2-cent gain from the sale of the company’s commercial finance unit, a 14-cent gain from state tax settlements, and the fact they only paid $7 million in taxes on $445 million of pre-tax income. In other words, based on the latest quarter, Boeing stock is selling at 20 times 2005 pre-tax income. Unfortunately, Boeing is not a growth company. It’s middle name is not Google. It is shocking that Boeing stock has been the second-best performing stock in the Dow this year. That doesn’t say much for the other companies in the Dow.
DaimlerChrysler stated that demand for the fourth quarter in the auto business “seems likely to weaken.” At least one company is telling the truth.
Bush on March 13, 2002: “And again, I don’t know where he is. I- I’ll repeat what I said. I truly am not that concerned about him.”
Bush on October 13, 2004: “Gosh, I don’t think I ever said I’m not worried about Osama bin Laden. That’s kind of one of those exaggerations.” Gee. Golly. Gosh.
Teddy Roosevelt: “A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues.”
U.S. new home sales rose in September to the third highest on record. Low mortgage rates continue to assist home buyers. However, the median selling price declined 8.4% to $197,000 from $215,900 the previous month. The main reason for the decline was a larger percentage of lower-priced starter homes were sold during the month. A word of caution is in order. The National Association of Home Builders index of builder optimism rose to 72 in October, the highest level in 2004.
Asia Times: “As far as the American military was concerned Pir Baksh (the man responsible for intelligence operations in eastern Afghanistan) was adamant: ‘Al-Qaeda escaped right out from under their feet.’ So it was a major Pentagon blunder. It was a major Rumsfeld-Franks blunder. It was a major White House blunder. And there were two reasons for it: 1) The Pentagon outsourced the war in eastern Afghanistan to the wrong warlords, who were collecting suitcases full of cash with one hand and spreading disinformation with the other. 2) The White House’s and the Pentagon’s attention were already directed toward toppling Saddam…it’s a serious charge that debunks the whole myth of Bush as a strong and resolute commander-in-chief of the ‘war on terror.’”
Teddy Roosevelt: “Nobody cares how much you know, until they know how much you care.”
Yesterday was a day for volatility. Crude dropped 5% in price. The yen hit a six-month high versus the dollar. Ten-year treasury yields rose from 3.97% to 4.09% and the Dow had its second straight day of triple digit gains accompanied by a 40-point rally in the Nasdaq. It’s important that strong bear market rallies occur. It brings renewed optimism and hope and that improves liquidity as well as making the pricing of puts more reasonable. Maybe the price of crude, natural gas, and heating oil has topped out- at least for now. Do you want to bet your portfolio on it?
Bill Gates: “Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can’t lose.”
Celanese has decided to restructure, and this will result I the elimination of 1,100 jobs, or 10% of its work force. Celanese Acetate will lay off 200 to 225 employees at its Rock Hill, NC operations. Kemet will lay off 10% of its work force. LSI Logic will cut 510 jobs, or 11% of its work force.
John D. Rockefeller: “The way to make money is to buy when blood is running in the streets.”
The Labor Dept reported that initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 20,000 to 350,000 last week. The number of former workers receiving state unemployment checks rose by 38,000 to 2.82 million. The Labor Dept could not think of a reason for the rise in initial claims for state unemployment because there weren't any hurricanes, typhoons, earthquakes, or soft patches.
Winston Churchill: "Some people's idea of free speech is that they are free to say anything they like, but if anyone says anything back, that is an outrage."
Why did U.S. durable goods orders rise 0.2% in September? Orders derived from military spending increased 26.5% in the month. Total orders excluding military goods fell 0.9%, the biggest drop since April. U.S. September durable goods shipments fell 1.2%, the biggest drop in 13 months.The private sector soft patch continues. It is not surprising that the latest LA Times poll reveals that 51% of those polled disapprove of the way Bush is handling the economy. An Annenberg Center survey from Tuesday found 41% stated Bush’s policies have made the economy worse and 34% made the economy better.
Despite a decline in commercial airplane revenue, Boeing managed to earn 56 cents a share, up from 32 cents a year ago. How did this happen? The company enjoyed strong growth in its defense business PLUS a 2-cent gain from the sale of the company’s commercial finance unit, a 14-cent gain from state tax settlements, and the fact they only paid $7 million in taxes on $445 million of pre-tax income. In other words, based on the latest quarter, Boeing stock is selling at 20 times 2005 pre-tax income. Unfortunately, Boeing is not a growth company. It’s middle name is not Google. It is shocking that Boeing stock has been the second-best performing stock in the Dow this year. That doesn’t say much for the other companies in the Dow.
DaimlerChrysler stated that demand for the fourth quarter in the auto business “seems likely to weaken.” At least one company is telling the truth.
Bush on March 13, 2002: “And again, I don’t know where he is. I- I’ll repeat what I said. I truly am not that concerned about him.”
Bush on October 13, 2004: “Gosh, I don’t think I ever said I’m not worried about Osama bin Laden. That’s kind of one of those exaggerations.” Gee. Golly. Gosh.
Teddy Roosevelt: “A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues.”
U.S. new home sales rose in September to the third highest on record. Low mortgage rates continue to assist home buyers. However, the median selling price declined 8.4% to $197,000 from $215,900 the previous month. The main reason for the decline was a larger percentage of lower-priced starter homes were sold during the month. A word of caution is in order. The National Association of Home Builders index of builder optimism rose to 72 in October, the highest level in 2004.
Asia Times: “As far as the American military was concerned Pir Baksh (the man responsible for intelligence operations in eastern Afghanistan) was adamant: ‘Al-Qaeda escaped right out from under their feet.’ So it was a major Pentagon blunder. It was a major Rumsfeld-Franks blunder. It was a major White House blunder. And there were two reasons for it: 1) The Pentagon outsourced the war in eastern Afghanistan to the wrong warlords, who were collecting suitcases full of cash with one hand and spreading disinformation with the other. 2) The White House’s and the Pentagon’s attention were already directed toward toppling Saddam…it’s a serious charge that debunks the whole myth of Bush as a strong and resolute commander-in-chief of the ‘war on terror.’”
Teddy Roosevelt: “Nobody cares how much you know, until they know how much you care.”
Yesterday was a day for volatility. Crude dropped 5% in price. The yen hit a six-month high versus the dollar. Ten-year treasury yields rose from 3.97% to 4.09% and the Dow had its second straight day of triple digit gains accompanied by a 40-point rally in the Nasdaq. It’s important that strong bear market rallies occur. It brings renewed optimism and hope and that improves liquidity as well as making the pricing of puts more reasonable. Maybe the price of crude, natural gas, and heating oil has topped out- at least for now. Do you want to bet your portfolio on it?
Bill Gates: “Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can’t lose.”
Celanese has decided to restructure, and this will result I the elimination of 1,100 jobs, or 10% of its work force. Celanese Acetate will lay off 200 to 225 employees at its Rock Hill, NC operations. Kemet will lay off 10% of its work force. LSI Logic will cut 510 jobs, or 11% of its work force.
John D. Rockefeller: “The way to make money is to buy when blood is running in the streets.”
The Labor Dept reported that initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 20,000 to 350,000 last week. The number of former workers receiving state unemployment checks rose by 38,000 to 2.82 million. The Labor Dept could not think of a reason for the rise in initial claims for state unemployment because there weren't any hurricanes, typhoons, earthquakes, or soft patches.
Winston Churchill: "Some people's idea of free speech is that they are free to say anything they like, but if anyone says anything back, that is an outrage."
Wednesday, October 27, 2004
10/27/04 The Polls Will Be Proven Wrong
I invest only my money. I do all my own research. My conclusions are based on a variety of data. In the end, my gut feel is the telling factor. Fortunately, God has endowed me with a gut that has not led me down the wrong path too often. I am not a political analyst. That gives me an advantage. I am not tied to historical methodologies. It will be proven that the 2004 presidential election will be different from all others. Polls may miss first time voters. The polls miss cell phone users. Curtis Gans, director of the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, stated “the normal screening questions deal with past behavior. That’s going to understate the turnout this time around.” In Ohio, the turnout in presidential elections declined from 70% of all voting age people in 1960 to 56% in 2000. Since the start of this year, election officials report that in Ohio the number of registered voters have increased by 12% to at least 7.8 million. That’s only a part of the story. Michael W. Traugott, a senior researcher at the University of Michigan’s Center for Political Studies stated “the Democratic Party essentially registered more people than the Republicans.” Counties in Ohio that historically vote for Democratic presidential candidates have been registering three new voters for every two new voters in Republican-voting counties. Depending on how you count seldom-seen voters, the outcome of a poll will change dramatically. If you include only those who always participate in major elections and are very certain of voting this year, then Bush has a slight lead. If you include all registered voters- regardless of their voting record- then Kerry has a 5 point advantage. In essence, much depends on the definition of a likely voter. In addition, as David Krane of the Harris Poll noted, “we’ve all been working for the past 20 years on a low-turnout model.” The outcome of the election will come down to turnout. I anticipate that the turnout will be much larger than forecast, and this will prove a big factor in the Kerry win.
There are other clues pointing to a Kerry victory. In newspaper endorsements, Kerry holds a 17 million to 12 million lead by circulation. At least 35 papers that backed Bush in 2000 have now switched to Kerry. Another nine that supported Bush have declared their neutrality this year. Only five have gone from Gore to Bush. In Florida, every paper has endorsed Kerry except for the Ocala Star-Banner and the Lakeland Ledger. The Tampa Tribune is neutral. Pennsylvania’s newspapers have overwhelmingly endorsed Kerry with the exception of two papers- in York and Easton. Michigan papers are for Kerry. Ohio is more interesting. Bush got endorsements from newspapers in Cincinnati and Canton, The Plain Dealer is neutral, Kerry was endorsed in Dayton, Toledo, and Akron, and the Columbus Dispatch endorsement of Bush carried much criticism of him. In Iowa, the only endorsement Bush received was in Cedar Rapids.
Then there are other less likely clues. BlueBeat.com is a free hi-fidelity digital radio service. Tens of thousands of citizens are voting with their ears by choosing Republican and Democratic-themed musical play lists on the site’s “Red, White, and BlueBeat.com.” They feature music by artists favored by the Bush/Cheney and the Kerry/Edwards campaigns, as well as partisan musicians on both sides. Bush’s stream currently trails Kerry’s by 47% to 53%.
According to the number of Internet downloads of a popular cell phone and PDA game called Political Dodgeball, the Democrats have recently taken a significant lead with a surge in the number of Democratic versions downloaded.
I also focus on the state of the working class in 2004 America. Today the Keystone Research Center will release a new version of its “state of working Pennsylvania 2004.” It includes the latest employment data from the Commonwealth also released today. Here are some of the important facts and all leading to Kerry winning Pennsylvania:
Pennsylvania has fewer jobs than when the last recession began in March 2001. In fact, there are 71,000 fewer jobs. The state has 154,600 fewer manufacturing jobs in September 2004 than March 2001. Since January 2001, jobs have declined by 1.2% while working-age population growth has grown 2.4%. Across the state unemployment is up since August 2001 and wages are down in many areas.
Another nail in Bush’s re-election coffin was the Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence falling to 92.8 in October, the lowest in seven months, from 96.7 in September. It was the third straight monthly decline in confidence. The consumer expectations component declined to 92 from 97.7. This consumer confidence survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. Consumers stated the job market and their income prospects would worsen in the coming months. It should be noted that the Conference Board’s confidence index was 115.7 when Bush took office.
Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist, believes there is a 40% chance of a global recession in 2005.
Peter W. Galbraith: “In spite of the chaos that followed the war, I am sure that Iraq is better off without Saddam Hussein. It is my own country that is worse off-- 1,100 dead soldiers, billions added to the deficit, and the enmity of much of the world. Someone out there has nuclear bomb-making equipment, and they may not be well disposed toward the U.S. Much of this could have been avoided with a competent postwar strategy. But without having planned or provided enough troops, we could be a lot safer if we hadn’t gone to war.”
Natural gas futures are at a 20-month high and crude remains at or above $55 a barrel. Heating oil continues at record high prices.
I invest only my money. I do all my own research. My conclusions are based on a variety of data. In the end, my gut feel is the telling factor. Fortunately, God has endowed me with a gut that has not led me down the wrong path too often. I am not a political analyst. That gives me an advantage. I am not tied to historical methodologies. It will be proven that the 2004 presidential election will be different from all others. Polls may miss first time voters. The polls miss cell phone users. Curtis Gans, director of the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, stated “the normal screening questions deal with past behavior. That’s going to understate the turnout this time around.” In Ohio, the turnout in presidential elections declined from 70% of all voting age people in 1960 to 56% in 2000. Since the start of this year, election officials report that in Ohio the number of registered voters have increased by 12% to at least 7.8 million. That’s only a part of the story. Michael W. Traugott, a senior researcher at the University of Michigan’s Center for Political Studies stated “the Democratic Party essentially registered more people than the Republicans.” Counties in Ohio that historically vote for Democratic presidential candidates have been registering three new voters for every two new voters in Republican-voting counties. Depending on how you count seldom-seen voters, the outcome of a poll will change dramatically. If you include only those who always participate in major elections and are very certain of voting this year, then Bush has a slight lead. If you include all registered voters- regardless of their voting record- then Kerry has a 5 point advantage. In essence, much depends on the definition of a likely voter. In addition, as David Krane of the Harris Poll noted, “we’ve all been working for the past 20 years on a low-turnout model.” The outcome of the election will come down to turnout. I anticipate that the turnout will be much larger than forecast, and this will prove a big factor in the Kerry win.
There are other clues pointing to a Kerry victory. In newspaper endorsements, Kerry holds a 17 million to 12 million lead by circulation. At least 35 papers that backed Bush in 2000 have now switched to Kerry. Another nine that supported Bush have declared their neutrality this year. Only five have gone from Gore to Bush. In Florida, every paper has endorsed Kerry except for the Ocala Star-Banner and the Lakeland Ledger. The Tampa Tribune is neutral. Pennsylvania’s newspapers have overwhelmingly endorsed Kerry with the exception of two papers- in York and Easton. Michigan papers are for Kerry. Ohio is more interesting. Bush got endorsements from newspapers in Cincinnati and Canton, The Plain Dealer is neutral, Kerry was endorsed in Dayton, Toledo, and Akron, and the Columbus Dispatch endorsement of Bush carried much criticism of him. In Iowa, the only endorsement Bush received was in Cedar Rapids.
Then there are other less likely clues. BlueBeat.com is a free hi-fidelity digital radio service. Tens of thousands of citizens are voting with their ears by choosing Republican and Democratic-themed musical play lists on the site’s “Red, White, and BlueBeat.com.” They feature music by artists favored by the Bush/Cheney and the Kerry/Edwards campaigns, as well as partisan musicians on both sides. Bush’s stream currently trails Kerry’s by 47% to 53%.
According to the number of Internet downloads of a popular cell phone and PDA game called Political Dodgeball, the Democrats have recently taken a significant lead with a surge in the number of Democratic versions downloaded.
I also focus on the state of the working class in 2004 America. Today the Keystone Research Center will release a new version of its “state of working Pennsylvania 2004.” It includes the latest employment data from the Commonwealth also released today. Here are some of the important facts and all leading to Kerry winning Pennsylvania:
Pennsylvania has fewer jobs than when the last recession began in March 2001. In fact, there are 71,000 fewer jobs. The state has 154,600 fewer manufacturing jobs in September 2004 than March 2001. Since January 2001, jobs have declined by 1.2% while working-age population growth has grown 2.4%. Across the state unemployment is up since August 2001 and wages are down in many areas.
Another nail in Bush’s re-election coffin was the Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence falling to 92.8 in October, the lowest in seven months, from 96.7 in September. It was the third straight monthly decline in confidence. The consumer expectations component declined to 92 from 97.7. This consumer confidence survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. Consumers stated the job market and their income prospects would worsen in the coming months. It should be noted that the Conference Board’s confidence index was 115.7 when Bush took office.
Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist, believes there is a 40% chance of a global recession in 2005.
Peter W. Galbraith: “In spite of the chaos that followed the war, I am sure that Iraq is better off without Saddam Hussein. It is my own country that is worse off-- 1,100 dead soldiers, billions added to the deficit, and the enmity of much of the world. Someone out there has nuclear bomb-making equipment, and they may not be well disposed toward the U.S. Much of this could have been avoided with a competent postwar strategy. But without having planned or provided enough troops, we could be a lot safer if we hadn’t gone to war.”
Natural gas futures are at a 20-month high and crude remains at or above $55 a barrel. Heating oil continues at record high prices.
Tuesday, October 26, 2004
10/26/04 The Terror And Fear Cards Will Prove A Losing Hand
I believe John Kerry will garner at least 289 electoral votes a week from today.
According to ComScore Networks, Kerry leads among women voters in Florida 50% to 45.5% for Bush.
The Financial Times states “John Kerry is a better choice for U.S. president…Mr. Bush’s crusading moralism has alienated the rest of the world, and a large constituency at home already fearful about the influence of the religious right. The scandal at Abu Gharaib has stained America’s reputation for a generation. The administration’s disdain for international law has shaken faith in American values. Overall, the U.S.-led war on terror misreads the battle against al-Qaeda as a clash of civilizations rather than a battle within the Muslim world. Mr. Kerry understands such nuances. He also understands that American power depends on American credibility.”
George Burns: “Too bad the only people who know how to run the country are busy driving cabs and cutting hair.”
According to the Pentagon and congressional officials, early next year the Bush administration intends to seek about $70 billion in emergency funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. According to Yale University economist William Nordhaus, in inflation adjusted terms, WW I cost just under $200 million for the U.S. The Viet Nam war cost roughly $500 million from 1964 to 1972. In another year from now, in 2 ½ years since we invaded Iraq, that war could cost nearly $250 billion. By my math, that number appears low.
According to a holiday survey of 3,500 respondents conducted by the NPD Group, the findings suggest “there’s no real frenzy to go out and grab an item, simply because there really aren’t any hot items this year. The absence of an ‘I can’t live without this’ factor means consumers will also spend less on themselves this year than last year.” According to a separate survey of 31,000 consumers by the NPD Group, 26% of shoppers stated they would shop for themselves over the holidays, down from 29% last year. Gift cards will remain popular.
Peter Lynch: “Go for a business that any idiot can run- because sooner or later, an idiot is probably going to run it.”
According to Petrologistics, OPEC pumped 200,000 barrels per day more in October than in September.
How do 377 tons of explosives disappear? Maybe they’re buried with Jimmy Hoffa.
The Christian Science Monitor reports that there are at least 8 million illegal aliens living in America today- and their numbers are growing by at least 400,000 a year. Maybe 500,000. No one knows for sure. How many yearly visits do they make to hospital emergency rooms?
W.C. Fields: “I never drink water, fish fuck in it.”
The McDonald Financial Group Affluent Customer Confidence Index, a quarterly measurement, showed the first decline since April 2003. The affluent, defined as those with at least $500,000 to invest, showed an increased pessimism toward the economy. Out of 100 total points, the index reached only 48, a 13 point decline since the last survey in July. In addition, 76% are concerned about the current state of the economy, compared with 64% in the July survey.
George Soros: “Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.”
According to Foreclosures.com, “only 18% of California households can afford a median priced home in our state. When affordability gets that low, a price correction is inevitable.” The company stated sales volume is falling in several southern California markets, and “falling sales volume is often a precursor to falling prices.” The same could be said for the stock market. In rising markets, volume is greater.
According to a senior Commerce Ministry official, China expects its trade surplus to be around $10 billion in 2004. In 2003, China’s trade surplus fell 16% to about $25 billion.
Sales of U.S. existing homes increased 3.1% in September to the third highest rate ever. Median sales prices rose 8.6% year-over-year to $186,000.
George Soros: “His (Bush’s) campaign is based on the assumption that people do not really care about the truth and they will believe practically anything if it is repeated often enough, particularly by a President at a time of war. There must be something wrong with us if we fall for it.”
The International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS reported that sales at U.S. retail chain stores fell 0.6% last week after declining 0.2% the previous week. They probably will blame the drop on earthquakes, avalanches, typhoons, hurricanes, and Bush campaigning on terror and fear.
I believe John Kerry will garner at least 289 electoral votes a week from today.
According to ComScore Networks, Kerry leads among women voters in Florida 50% to 45.5% for Bush.
The Financial Times states “John Kerry is a better choice for U.S. president…Mr. Bush’s crusading moralism has alienated the rest of the world, and a large constituency at home already fearful about the influence of the religious right. The scandal at Abu Gharaib has stained America’s reputation for a generation. The administration’s disdain for international law has shaken faith in American values. Overall, the U.S.-led war on terror misreads the battle against al-Qaeda as a clash of civilizations rather than a battle within the Muslim world. Mr. Kerry understands such nuances. He also understands that American power depends on American credibility.”
George Burns: “Too bad the only people who know how to run the country are busy driving cabs and cutting hair.”
According to the Pentagon and congressional officials, early next year the Bush administration intends to seek about $70 billion in emergency funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. According to Yale University economist William Nordhaus, in inflation adjusted terms, WW I cost just under $200 million for the U.S. The Viet Nam war cost roughly $500 million from 1964 to 1972. In another year from now, in 2 ½ years since we invaded Iraq, that war could cost nearly $250 billion. By my math, that number appears low.
According to a holiday survey of 3,500 respondents conducted by the NPD Group, the findings suggest “there’s no real frenzy to go out and grab an item, simply because there really aren’t any hot items this year. The absence of an ‘I can’t live without this’ factor means consumers will also spend less on themselves this year than last year.” According to a separate survey of 31,000 consumers by the NPD Group, 26% of shoppers stated they would shop for themselves over the holidays, down from 29% last year. Gift cards will remain popular.
Peter Lynch: “Go for a business that any idiot can run- because sooner or later, an idiot is probably going to run it.”
According to Petrologistics, OPEC pumped 200,000 barrels per day more in October than in September.
How do 377 tons of explosives disappear? Maybe they’re buried with Jimmy Hoffa.
The Christian Science Monitor reports that there are at least 8 million illegal aliens living in America today- and their numbers are growing by at least 400,000 a year. Maybe 500,000. No one knows for sure. How many yearly visits do they make to hospital emergency rooms?
W.C. Fields: “I never drink water, fish fuck in it.”
The McDonald Financial Group Affluent Customer Confidence Index, a quarterly measurement, showed the first decline since April 2003. The affluent, defined as those with at least $500,000 to invest, showed an increased pessimism toward the economy. Out of 100 total points, the index reached only 48, a 13 point decline since the last survey in July. In addition, 76% are concerned about the current state of the economy, compared with 64% in the July survey.
George Soros: “Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.”
According to Foreclosures.com, “only 18% of California households can afford a median priced home in our state. When affordability gets that low, a price correction is inevitable.” The company stated sales volume is falling in several southern California markets, and “falling sales volume is often a precursor to falling prices.” The same could be said for the stock market. In rising markets, volume is greater.
According to a senior Commerce Ministry official, China expects its trade surplus to be around $10 billion in 2004. In 2003, China’s trade surplus fell 16% to about $25 billion.
Sales of U.S. existing homes increased 3.1% in September to the third highest rate ever. Median sales prices rose 8.6% year-over-year to $186,000.
George Soros: “His (Bush’s) campaign is based on the assumption that people do not really care about the truth and they will believe practically anything if it is repeated often enough, particularly by a President at a time of war. There must be something wrong with us if we fall for it.”
The International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS reported that sales at U.S. retail chain stores fell 0.6% last week after declining 0.2% the previous week. They probably will blame the drop on earthquakes, avalanches, typhoons, hurricanes, and Bush campaigning on terror and fear.
10/26/04 The Terror And Fear Cards Will Prove A Losing Hand
I believe John Kerry will garner at least 289 electoral votes a week from today.
According to ComScore Networks, Kerry leads among women voters in Florida 50% to 45.5% for Bush.
The Financial Times states “John Kerry is a better choice for U.S. president…Mr. Bush’s crusading moralism has alienated the rest of the world, and a large constituency at home already fearful about the influence of the religious right. The scandal at Abu Gharaib has stained America’s reputation for a generation. The administration’s disdain for international law has shaken faith in American values. Overall, the U.S.-led war on terror misreads the battle against al-Qaeda as a clash of civilizations rather than a battle within the Muslim world. Mr. Kerry understands such nuances. He also understands that American power depends on American credibility.”
George Burns: “Too bad the only people who know how to run the country are busy driving cabs and cutting hair.”
According to the Pentagon and congressional officials, early next year the Bush administration intends to seek about $70 billion in emergency funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. According to Yale University economist William Nordhaus, in inflation adjusted terms, WW I cost just under $200 million for the U.S. The Viet Nam war cost roughly $500 million from 1964 to 1972. In another year from now, in 2 ½ years since we invaded Iraq, that war could cost nearly $250 billion. By my math, that number appears low.
According to a holiday survey of 3,500 respondents conducted by the NPD Group, the findings suggest “there’s no real frenzy to go out and grab an item, simply because there really aren’t any hot items this year. The absence of an ‘I can’t live without this’ factor means consumers will also spend less on themselves this year than last year.” According to a separate survey of 31,000 consumers by the NPD Group, 26% of shoppers stated they would shop for themselves over the holidays, down from 29% last year. Gift cards will remain popular.
Peter Lynch: “Go for a business that any idiot can run- because sooner or later, an idiot is probably going to run it.”
According to Petrologistics, OPEC pumped 200,000 barrels per day more in October than in September.
How do 377 tons of explosives disappear? Maybe they’re buried with Jimmy Hoffa.
The Christian Science Monitor reports that there are at least 8 million illegal aliens living in America today- and their numbers are growing by at least 400,000 a year. Maybe 500,000. No one knows for sure. How many yearly visits do they make to hospital emergency rooms?
W.C. Fields: “I never drink water, fish fuck in it.”
The McDonald Financial Group Affluent Customer Confidence Index, a quarterly measurement, showed the first decline since April 2003. The affluent, defined as those with at least $500,000 to invest, showed an increased pessimism toward the economy. Out of 100 total points, the index reached only 48, a 13 point decline since the last survey in July. In addition, 76% are concerned about the current state of the economy, compared with 64% in the July survey.
George Soros: “Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.”
According to Foreclosures.com, “only 18% of California households can afford a median priced home in our state. When affordability gets that low, a price correction is inevitable.” The company stated sales volume is falling in several southern California markets, and “falling sales volume is often a precursor to falling prices.” The same could be said for the stock market. In rising markets, volume is greater.
According to a senior Commerce Ministry official, China expects its trade surplus to be around $10 billion in 2004. In 2003, China’s trade surplus fell 16% to about $25 billion.
Sales of U.S. existing homes increased 3.1% in September to the third highest rate ever. Median sales prices rose 8.6% year-over-year to $186,000.
George Soros: “His (Bush’s) campaign is based on the assumption that people do not really care about the truth and they will believe practically anything if it is repeated often enough, particularly by a President at a time of war. There must be something wrong with us if we fall for it.”
The International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS reported that sales at U.S. retail chain stores fell 0.6% last week after declining 0.2% the previous week. They probably will blame the drop on earthquakes, avalanches, typhoons, hurricanes, and Bush campaigning on terror and fear.
I believe John Kerry will garner at least 289 electoral votes a week from today.
According to ComScore Networks, Kerry leads among women voters in Florida 50% to 45.5% for Bush.
The Financial Times states “John Kerry is a better choice for U.S. president…Mr. Bush’s crusading moralism has alienated the rest of the world, and a large constituency at home already fearful about the influence of the religious right. The scandal at Abu Gharaib has stained America’s reputation for a generation. The administration’s disdain for international law has shaken faith in American values. Overall, the U.S.-led war on terror misreads the battle against al-Qaeda as a clash of civilizations rather than a battle within the Muslim world. Mr. Kerry understands such nuances. He also understands that American power depends on American credibility.”
George Burns: “Too bad the only people who know how to run the country are busy driving cabs and cutting hair.”
According to the Pentagon and congressional officials, early next year the Bush administration intends to seek about $70 billion in emergency funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. According to Yale University economist William Nordhaus, in inflation adjusted terms, WW I cost just under $200 million for the U.S. The Viet Nam war cost roughly $500 million from 1964 to 1972. In another year from now, in 2 ½ years since we invaded Iraq, that war could cost nearly $250 billion. By my math, that number appears low.
According to a holiday survey of 3,500 respondents conducted by the NPD Group, the findings suggest “there’s no real frenzy to go out and grab an item, simply because there really aren’t any hot items this year. The absence of an ‘I can’t live without this’ factor means consumers will also spend less on themselves this year than last year.” According to a separate survey of 31,000 consumers by the NPD Group, 26% of shoppers stated they would shop for themselves over the holidays, down from 29% last year. Gift cards will remain popular.
Peter Lynch: “Go for a business that any idiot can run- because sooner or later, an idiot is probably going to run it.”
According to Petrologistics, OPEC pumped 200,000 barrels per day more in October than in September.
How do 377 tons of explosives disappear? Maybe they’re buried with Jimmy Hoffa.
The Christian Science Monitor reports that there are at least 8 million illegal aliens living in America today- and their numbers are growing by at least 400,000 a year. Maybe 500,000. No one knows for sure. How many yearly visits do they make to hospital emergency rooms?
W.C. Fields: “I never drink water, fish fuck in it.”
The McDonald Financial Group Affluent Customer Confidence Index, a quarterly measurement, showed the first decline since April 2003. The affluent, defined as those with at least $500,000 to invest, showed an increased pessimism toward the economy. Out of 100 total points, the index reached only 48, a 13 point decline since the last survey in July. In addition, 76% are concerned about the current state of the economy, compared with 64% in the July survey.
George Soros: “Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.”
According to Foreclosures.com, “only 18% of California households can afford a median priced home in our state. When affordability gets that low, a price correction is inevitable.” The company stated sales volume is falling in several southern California markets, and “falling sales volume is often a precursor to falling prices.” The same could be said for the stock market. In rising markets, volume is greater.
According to a senior Commerce Ministry official, China expects its trade surplus to be around $10 billion in 2004. In 2003, China’s trade surplus fell 16% to about $25 billion.
Sales of U.S. existing homes increased 3.1% in September to the third highest rate ever. Median sales prices rose 8.6% year-over-year to $186,000.
George Soros: “His (Bush’s) campaign is based on the assumption that people do not really care about the truth and they will believe practically anything if it is repeated often enough, particularly by a President at a time of war. There must be something wrong with us if we fall for it.”
The International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS reported that sales at U.S. retail chain stores fell 0.6% last week after declining 0.2% the previous week. They probably will blame the drop on earthquakes, avalanches, typhoons, hurricanes, and Bush campaigning on terror and fear.
Monday, October 25, 2004
10/25/04 We Are Responsible For the Forgery On the Wall
As Leonard Pitts, Jr., syndicated columnist for the Miami Herald, points out, “we are the reason Bush gets away with it.” He writes that, in March 2003, Pat Robertson advised Bush to prepare the nation for the likelihood of casualties in Iraq. Bush replied “we’re not going to have any casualties.” So far, 1,105 U.S. soldiers have been killed in Iraq. In addition, there are over 9,000 casualties. Pitts goes on “we bought a forgery, a fake ‘War on Terror’ for which we paid, and are still paying. Now we are loath to admit what anybody can see…For four years, he and cronies have blithely changed or suppressed government reports- on health, science, the environment- that counter the world view. Just last month, when intelligence agents issued a report whose pessimism was at odds with the party line on Iraq, the president dismissed it by saying these experts were ‘just guessing.’ On Planet Bush, a thing is true because the president believes it t be true and any facts marshaled in opposition are irrelevant. One’s job as the president’s adviser, apparently, is simply to nod vigorously. Ask yourself why we’re keeping that forgery on the wall. At this point, the only people being fooled are those who want to be.”
Mark Twain: "Denial ain't just a river in Egypt."
In a study by NPD Group, 42% of those polled said the price of gasoline will impact holiday spending. About a third of the consumers polled said they would wait for items to go on sale before making purchases.
Venture capital spending in Silicon Valley start-ups in the third quarter was down 24% from the prior quarter, according to an Ernst & Young survey.
For the ninth consecutive day the dollar fell against the euro to $1.28. It was an eight month high for the euro. The dollar dropped to 106.24 yen. It was the first time in six months it had traded below 107 yen. In addition, the dollar traded at four year lows against the Korean won and the Singapore dollar and to an eight year low against the Swiss franc. San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen stated the dollar was still “relatively high despite our large and growing trade deficit.” There is increasing concern about capital inflows to the U.S.
Gold rallied to a six month high of $429 per ounce and crude remained at all-time high levels.
This week the U.S. Conference Board’s gauge of consumer sentiment in October will most probably show a steep decline. The NAPM-Chicago index in October will most likely also show a steep decline. Forecasts for fourth quarter GDP growth are too high.
Freddie Prinze: "My folks first met on the subway trying to pick each others pockets."
As Leonard Pitts, Jr., syndicated columnist for the Miami Herald, points out, “we are the reason Bush gets away with it.” He writes that, in March 2003, Pat Robertson advised Bush to prepare the nation for the likelihood of casualties in Iraq. Bush replied “we’re not going to have any casualties.” So far, 1,105 U.S. soldiers have been killed in Iraq. In addition, there are over 9,000 casualties. Pitts goes on “we bought a forgery, a fake ‘War on Terror’ for which we paid, and are still paying. Now we are loath to admit what anybody can see…For four years, he and cronies have blithely changed or suppressed government reports- on health, science, the environment- that counter the world view. Just last month, when intelligence agents issued a report whose pessimism was at odds with the party line on Iraq, the president dismissed it by saying these experts were ‘just guessing.’ On Planet Bush, a thing is true because the president believes it t be true and any facts marshaled in opposition are irrelevant. One’s job as the president’s adviser, apparently, is simply to nod vigorously. Ask yourself why we’re keeping that forgery on the wall. At this point, the only people being fooled are those who want to be.”
Mark Twain: "Denial ain't just a river in Egypt."
In a study by NPD Group, 42% of those polled said the price of gasoline will impact holiday spending. About a third of the consumers polled said they would wait for items to go on sale before making purchases.
Venture capital spending in Silicon Valley start-ups in the third quarter was down 24% from the prior quarter, according to an Ernst & Young survey.
For the ninth consecutive day the dollar fell against the euro to $1.28. It was an eight month high for the euro. The dollar dropped to 106.24 yen. It was the first time in six months it had traded below 107 yen. In addition, the dollar traded at four year lows against the Korean won and the Singapore dollar and to an eight year low against the Swiss franc. San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen stated the dollar was still “relatively high despite our large and growing trade deficit.” There is increasing concern about capital inflows to the U.S.
Gold rallied to a six month high of $429 per ounce and crude remained at all-time high levels.
This week the U.S. Conference Board’s gauge of consumer sentiment in October will most probably show a steep decline. The NAPM-Chicago index in October will most likely also show a steep decline. Forecasts for fourth quarter GDP growth are too high.
Freddie Prinze: "My folks first met on the subway trying to pick each others pockets."
Sunday, October 24, 2004
10/24/04 The Changing Landscape
It was hardly a surprise to read the Washington Post’s endorsement of Kerry for President this morning. In its editorial, the paper stated that “on balance, though, we believe Mr. Kerry, with his promise of resoluteness tempered by wisdom and open-mindedness, has staked a stronger claim on the nation’s trust to lead for the next four years.” Possibly, more importantly, the Des Moines Register came out today in support of Kerry for President. In its endorsement entitled John Kerry, the real thing, the paper stated “now it is time to take the next logical step and recognize John Kerry as someone who could do better. It’s time to see Kerry as the person he is, not as the caricature created in the president’s campaign ads…By nature, he is more of a uniter than Bush…It is the nature of the man to listen and to respect others. He does not tend toward vindictiveness or in-your-face triumphalism. There is a dignity about him…We’re confident in recommending him as a person of common sense and decency- a leader who has what it takes to bring Americans back together.” I urge you all to read the entire endorsement.
Eligible registered voter rolls have increased 21% or by 470,000 more Arizonans for November 2 than could vote in 2000.
Sean P. Diddy is taking his Combs Citizen Change campaign for getting out the vote to the swing states. There are 40 million eligible voters between 18 and 35.
Wisconsin is one of four battleground states allowing same-day voter registration. In 2000, nearly one in six voters registered on election day.
In August, foreigners purchased a net $59 billion of Treasury bonds, stocks, and other securities. It was the smallest amount bought in 10 months.
Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen stated the trade gap poses “significant issues” for the economy. This week the dollar declined 1.7% against the euro and 1.9% versus the yen. Lehman Bros. predicts the dollar will decline to $1.32 to the euro in a year and the dollar to 99 yen in 12 months.
Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies: “I’m less worried about the tax side. The part that’s got me so upset is in the whole election debate nobody’s been talking about the spending side. If you take out Homeland Security and Defense, it has been a cookie jar in the last four years. Everything has gotten loaded in. Money has gotten loaded into these appropriation bills that are funding everything under the sun. There is absolutely no spending discipline.” She is recommending a return to pay-as-you-go policy requiring new spending to be offset.
Japan’s trade surplus in September declined 21.8% from the prior month.
The kids’ poll has correctly predicted the winner in the last four presidential elections. The latest poll of nearly 400,000 children gave 57% of their votes to Kerry.
For the first time since August 2003, the four-week moving average of U.S. bond purchases by foreign central banks has turned negative.
It is helpful to be open-minded about new ways to understand and assess the movement of prices in financial markets. An alternative look centers on fractal theory and described in a book written by Mandelbrot and Hudson entitled The (Mis)behavior of Markets:A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin, and Reward.
In September, 7,000 jobs were lost in Wisconsin, 14,800 in Michigan, and 9,500 in Florida. Over the last three months jobs were lost in Minnesota, Missouri, Oregon, and Michigan.
Mozilla’s Firefox version 1.0 has been in beta for the past four months. It is a revolutionary new browser. A very famous techie friend put it on my computer. It is a free open-source browser. It has been downloaded almost 3 million times. It has significant advantages over Microsoft’s Internet Explorer. Next month Mozilla hopes to release its non-beta 1.0 version, and they’re “hoping for 10 million downloads in 10 days.” Mozilla spells trouble for Microsoft.
In 1999, sales for Infosys amounted to $121 million. Last year, they surpassed $1 billion. Their CEO stated “after the boom, people no longer invested in technology as an act of faith. They started focusing on reliability, return on investment, and value for money, which is exactly what we deliver.” Nilekani, the CEO, sees their next big opportunity in consulting and services. He observed that “it’s like Wal-Mart getting into groceries or Dell getting into printers. On top of our global; delivery model, we’re adding these new capabilities at the point of customer contact.” Accenture and IBM had better take this competitor seriously. Infosys is hungry and will offer value and excellent customer service.
According to AMR Research, retailers will spend about $400 million worldwide this year on forecasting applications.
A Mercer survey last year found 80% of companies reduced health-care coverage for future retirees, and that 40% make current retirees pay the full cost of health insurance.
Since the start of 2002, the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index is up 100%.
Wally Weitz: “The risk of a short-term surprise or crisis is created by a weak dollar if the holders of some hundreds of billions or trillions of U.S. securities decide the interest rate they’re receiving on those securities is not compensating them enough for the chronic loss of value they would experience because of the dollar weakening.”
On Thursday, the Check Clearing for the 21st Century Act goes into effect. It will enable banks to accept electronic images of checks as proof of payment in place of the actual checks.
George W. Bush : "I've been to war. I've raised twins. If I had a choice, I'd rather go to war."
It was hardly a surprise to read the Washington Post’s endorsement of Kerry for President this morning. In its editorial, the paper stated that “on balance, though, we believe Mr. Kerry, with his promise of resoluteness tempered by wisdom and open-mindedness, has staked a stronger claim on the nation’s trust to lead for the next four years.” Possibly, more importantly, the Des Moines Register came out today in support of Kerry for President. In its endorsement entitled John Kerry, the real thing, the paper stated “now it is time to take the next logical step and recognize John Kerry as someone who could do better. It’s time to see Kerry as the person he is, not as the caricature created in the president’s campaign ads…By nature, he is more of a uniter than Bush…It is the nature of the man to listen and to respect others. He does not tend toward vindictiveness or in-your-face triumphalism. There is a dignity about him…We’re confident in recommending him as a person of common sense and decency- a leader who has what it takes to bring Americans back together.” I urge you all to read the entire endorsement.
Eligible registered voter rolls have increased 21% or by 470,000 more Arizonans for November 2 than could vote in 2000.
Sean P. Diddy is taking his Combs Citizen Change campaign for getting out the vote to the swing states. There are 40 million eligible voters between 18 and 35.
Wisconsin is one of four battleground states allowing same-day voter registration. In 2000, nearly one in six voters registered on election day.
In August, foreigners purchased a net $59 billion of Treasury bonds, stocks, and other securities. It was the smallest amount bought in 10 months.
Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen stated the trade gap poses “significant issues” for the economy. This week the dollar declined 1.7% against the euro and 1.9% versus the yen. Lehman Bros. predicts the dollar will decline to $1.32 to the euro in a year and the dollar to 99 yen in 12 months.
Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies: “I’m less worried about the tax side. The part that’s got me so upset is in the whole election debate nobody’s been talking about the spending side. If you take out Homeland Security and Defense, it has been a cookie jar in the last four years. Everything has gotten loaded in. Money has gotten loaded into these appropriation bills that are funding everything under the sun. There is absolutely no spending discipline.” She is recommending a return to pay-as-you-go policy requiring new spending to be offset.
Japan’s trade surplus in September declined 21.8% from the prior month.
The kids’ poll has correctly predicted the winner in the last four presidential elections. The latest poll of nearly 400,000 children gave 57% of their votes to Kerry.
For the first time since August 2003, the four-week moving average of U.S. bond purchases by foreign central banks has turned negative.
It is helpful to be open-minded about new ways to understand and assess the movement of prices in financial markets. An alternative look centers on fractal theory and described in a book written by Mandelbrot and Hudson entitled The (Mis)behavior of Markets:A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin, and Reward.
In September, 7,000 jobs were lost in Wisconsin, 14,800 in Michigan, and 9,500 in Florida. Over the last three months jobs were lost in Minnesota, Missouri, Oregon, and Michigan.
Mozilla’s Firefox version 1.0 has been in beta for the past four months. It is a revolutionary new browser. A very famous techie friend put it on my computer. It is a free open-source browser. It has been downloaded almost 3 million times. It has significant advantages over Microsoft’s Internet Explorer. Next month Mozilla hopes to release its non-beta 1.0 version, and they’re “hoping for 10 million downloads in 10 days.” Mozilla spells trouble for Microsoft.
In 1999, sales for Infosys amounted to $121 million. Last year, they surpassed $1 billion. Their CEO stated “after the boom, people no longer invested in technology as an act of faith. They started focusing on reliability, return on investment, and value for money, which is exactly what we deliver.” Nilekani, the CEO, sees their next big opportunity in consulting and services. He observed that “it’s like Wal-Mart getting into groceries or Dell getting into printers. On top of our global; delivery model, we’re adding these new capabilities at the point of customer contact.” Accenture and IBM had better take this competitor seriously. Infosys is hungry and will offer value and excellent customer service.
According to AMR Research, retailers will spend about $400 million worldwide this year on forecasting applications.
A Mercer survey last year found 80% of companies reduced health-care coverage for future retirees, and that 40% make current retirees pay the full cost of health insurance.
Since the start of 2002, the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index is up 100%.
Wally Weitz: “The risk of a short-term surprise or crisis is created by a weak dollar if the holders of some hundreds of billions or trillions of U.S. securities decide the interest rate they’re receiving on those securities is not compensating them enough for the chronic loss of value they would experience because of the dollar weakening.”
On Thursday, the Check Clearing for the 21st Century Act goes into effect. It will enable banks to accept electronic images of checks as proof of payment in place of the actual checks.
George W. Bush : "I've been to war. I've raised twins. If I had a choice, I'd rather go to war."
Saturday, October 23, 2004
10/23/04 Sock It To Me!
Our exports are picking up. Hooters is opening a branch in Shanghai. In an effort to promote trade, the Bush Administration will impose quotas on sock imports from China. Do we have any sock manufacturers left in our country?
Jon Stewart: "If the events of Sept. 11, 2001 have proven anything, it's that the terrorists can attack us, but they can't take away what makes us American- our freedom, our liberty, our civil rights. No, only Attorney General John Ashcroft can do that."
Amazon expects a record holiday season as they promote lower prices and free shipping.
West Virginia has a high percentage of National Guard and Reservists, and many have been doing two-year tours of service in dangerous theatres.
Ninety percent of the oil in the Persian Gulf is currently purchased by Japan, China, and India. Economic ties to the U.S. are weakening.
AMR will furlough 1100 employees. Greenville Wire Products of Greenville, Michigan is closing its doors after 20 years and 150 people will lose their jobs. Lastra, a manufacturing company in Jacksonville, will close its plant and 200 workers will lose their jobs. HMSHost will permanently layoff 103 workers at Sea Tac.
Weak sales in North America, Germany, and Northern Europe contributed to Coke falling short of the goals the company set for itself. Unit case volume in the third quarter declined by 3%.
Toyota plans on increasing capiatl spending more than 10% during this business year.
David Letterman: "We have to rebuild Iraq into a strong and independent nation that will one day hate the U.S." I think that day has already arrived.
10-year Treasury bonds are yielding 3.98%. The Dow has lost 683 points since the close of 2003. It stands at its lowest level in 11 months. Many analysts believe the market will rally after the election. How many of these analysts are investing their own money and not that belonging to other people?
Natural gas futures closed above $8 per million BTU to a 19-month high. Crude closed above $55 a barrel fof the first time. Heating oil closed at a record high of $1.5944 a gallon. These are real prices. They are not based on government intelligence.
The Republican National Committee recently admitted distributing pamphlets stating that Kerry would ban the Bible if elected. The pamphlet did not mention which Bible. It could be a choice- one from column A and one from column B- a little like buy one get one free.
Our exports are picking up. Hooters is opening a branch in Shanghai. In an effort to promote trade, the Bush Administration will impose quotas on sock imports from China. Do we have any sock manufacturers left in our country?
Jon Stewart: "If the events of Sept. 11, 2001 have proven anything, it's that the terrorists can attack us, but they can't take away what makes us American- our freedom, our liberty, our civil rights. No, only Attorney General John Ashcroft can do that."
Amazon expects a record holiday season as they promote lower prices and free shipping.
West Virginia has a high percentage of National Guard and Reservists, and many have been doing two-year tours of service in dangerous theatres.
Ninety percent of the oil in the Persian Gulf is currently purchased by Japan, China, and India. Economic ties to the U.S. are weakening.
AMR will furlough 1100 employees. Greenville Wire Products of Greenville, Michigan is closing its doors after 20 years and 150 people will lose their jobs. Lastra, a manufacturing company in Jacksonville, will close its plant and 200 workers will lose their jobs. HMSHost will permanently layoff 103 workers at Sea Tac.
Weak sales in North America, Germany, and Northern Europe contributed to Coke falling short of the goals the company set for itself. Unit case volume in the third quarter declined by 3%.
Toyota plans on increasing capiatl spending more than 10% during this business year.
David Letterman: "We have to rebuild Iraq into a strong and independent nation that will one day hate the U.S." I think that day has already arrived.
10-year Treasury bonds are yielding 3.98%. The Dow has lost 683 points since the close of 2003. It stands at its lowest level in 11 months. Many analysts believe the market will rally after the election. How many of these analysts are investing their own money and not that belonging to other people?
Natural gas futures closed above $8 per million BTU to a 19-month high. Crude closed above $55 a barrel fof the first time. Heating oil closed at a record high of $1.5944 a gallon. These are real prices. They are not based on government intelligence.
The Republican National Committee recently admitted distributing pamphlets stating that Kerry would ban the Bible if elected. The pamphlet did not mention which Bible. It could be a choice- one from column A and one from column B- a little like buy one get one free.
Friday, October 22, 2004
10/22/04 Wistful Thinking
Yesterday Microsoft and Google reported their quarterly results. Analysts were not terribly excited by the Microsoft report. After all, the company only earned $2.9 billion on a sales gain of 11%, and the CFO increased the sales forecast for the year to $39 billion. Rather, Wall Street focused on a $400 million decline in long-term contracts. That is inconsequential. However, the CFO suggested that sales in the December quarter might only increase 1 to 2 percent. Microsoft normally is conservative in estimates but this might have proven more than most short-term investors could handle. It also reflects the difficult business environment that is not a soft patch. Google stole the earnings show with a profit of $52 million on a 50% sales increase. Google is currently one of the two growth stories. The other is eBay. Microsoft was discussed in those terms a few years back.
The Census Bureau estimates that 4.5 million people worked at home in 2003.
Coronet Foods has been a major employer in Wheeling, West Virginia for 40 years. They will close its doors today, and about 200 workers will lose their jobs.
A month ago I mention that the leading economic indicators would be down for the coming month. Yesterday a decline of 0.1% was reported. It was the fourth straight monthly decline. The next report will mark the fifth straight. This is not a soft patch. Anyone who thinks so is soft in the head.
Yesterday Microsoft and Google reported their quarterly results. Analysts were not terribly excited by the Microsoft report. After all, the company only earned $2.9 billion on a sales gain of 11%, and the CFO increased the sales forecast for the year to $39 billion. Rather, Wall Street focused on a $400 million decline in long-term contracts. That is inconsequential. However, the CFO suggested that sales in the December quarter might only increase 1 to 2 percent. Microsoft normally is conservative in estimates but this might have proven more than most short-term investors could handle. It also reflects the difficult business environment that is not a soft patch. Google stole the earnings show with a profit of $52 million on a 50% sales increase. Google is currently one of the two growth stories. The other is eBay. Microsoft was discussed in those terms a few years back.
The Census Bureau estimates that 4.5 million people worked at home in 2003.
Coronet Foods has been a major employer in Wheeling, West Virginia for 40 years. They will close its doors today, and about 200 workers will lose their jobs.
A month ago I mention that the leading economic indicators would be down for the coming month. Yesterday a decline of 0.1% was reported. It was the fourth straight monthly decline. The next report will mark the fifth straight. This is not a soft patch. Anyone who thinks so is soft in the head.
Wednesday, October 20, 2004
10/21/04 Ten Year Treasuries Defy The Fed Rate Hikes
Yesterday yields on 10 year Treasury bonds dipped under 4% and settled at a yield of 3.99%. Traders feel pretty certain that the Fed will raise short term rates next month in an effort to generate a "natural" rate that more closely approximates the 2.7% gain of the CPI over the past twelve months. As for fourth GDP growth, it most likely will resemble the 2.7% increase in the CPI. The record prices for crude and heating oil are limiting the economy's growth and the spending by consumers. The median weekly earnings of the nation's 102.3 million full-time wage and salary workers were $632 in the third quarter of 2004, according to the BLS. This was 2.3% higher than a year earlier, and trailed the CPI that gained 2.7% over the same period. As such, with real negative weekly earnings in 2004, one can't expect the consumer to be in a jovial spending mood. In addition, the job market has many Americans in a funk as companies continue their lay offs and plant closings. Yesterday, Convergys announced it would cut 250 jobs in its information management division. Black & Decker is closing its Oldham manufacturing plant in West Jefferson, NCand around 250 people will lose their jobs. Huffy filed for Chapter 11.
Heating oil inventories fell for the third week, leaving supplies 11% below year earlier levels. Not surprisingly, heating oil jumped back to $1.55 a gallon, crude topped $55 a barrel for the first time, and natural gas gained to $7.73 per million BTU.
Gold rallied to a multi-month high to $425 per ounce.
One can never be too certain of what looks like a sure thing. The Yankees were three up and yet lost four straight. The chances of that happening? One might have answered there was no chance. As long as there is breathing, anything can take place. It's best not to call for an undertaker until the victim stops breathing.
Yesterday yields on 10 year Treasury bonds dipped under 4% and settled at a yield of 3.99%. Traders feel pretty certain that the Fed will raise short term rates next month in an effort to generate a "natural" rate that more closely approximates the 2.7% gain of the CPI over the past twelve months. As for fourth GDP growth, it most likely will resemble the 2.7% increase in the CPI. The record prices for crude and heating oil are limiting the economy's growth and the spending by consumers. The median weekly earnings of the nation's 102.3 million full-time wage and salary workers were $632 in the third quarter of 2004, according to the BLS. This was 2.3% higher than a year earlier, and trailed the CPI that gained 2.7% over the same period. As such, with real negative weekly earnings in 2004, one can't expect the consumer to be in a jovial spending mood. In addition, the job market has many Americans in a funk as companies continue their lay offs and plant closings. Yesterday, Convergys announced it would cut 250 jobs in its information management division. Black & Decker is closing its Oldham manufacturing plant in West Jefferson, NCand around 250 people will lose their jobs. Huffy filed for Chapter 11.
Heating oil inventories fell for the third week, leaving supplies 11% below year earlier levels. Not surprisingly, heating oil jumped back to $1.55 a gallon, crude topped $55 a barrel for the first time, and natural gas gained to $7.73 per million BTU.
Gold rallied to a multi-month high to $425 per ounce.
One can never be too certain of what looks like a sure thing. The Yankees were three up and yet lost four straight. The chances of that happening? One might have answered there was no chance. As long as there is breathing, anything can take place. It's best not to call for an undertaker until the victim stops breathing.
10/20/04 Cell Phone Voters
I have mentioned that cell phone users are not contacted by the pollsters. The NPD Group estimates about 70% of the 24 million college-age group nationwide have cell phones and nearly 12% of young adults use cell phones only. There has been a strong push to register voters in the hip hop crowd. For example, Mary J. Blige and Outkast’s Andre 3000 plan to vote for the first time this year. Come November 2, plenty of hip hop voters will cast their votes. They could mean the difference in several neck-and-neck states.
GM will cut 900 employees from its Pontiac truck assembly plant in January due to sliding demand. AT&T will cut 279 jobs in Conyers, GA. Unifi will lay off 490 workers at a Kinston, NC plant. CuraGen will cut 110 jobs. Boeing Employees Credit Union is eliminating 85 positions or about 10.6% of their 800 staff members.
The dollar is approaching 1.26 to the euro.
According to a report released yesterday, 1.7 million veterans have no health insurance or access to gov’t hospitals and clinics. This is another example of compassionate conservatism.
According to the SF Chronicle, Google expects to add 372,000 advertiser accounts over the next four years.
Real average weekly earnings were unchanged from August to September after seasonal adjustment, according to the BLS. Average weekly hours were unchanged. Average weekly earnings were $530.88 in September. How many of those earners will be voting for Bush? Clearly, they are worse off than before he arrived in the White House.
The cost of hotel stays and other lodging away from home rose 2.7% in September.
Bill Clinton: "Terror leaves bitter enemies. The poison stays long in the well. The purpose, after all, is not to achieve military victory, but to achieve a change in circumstances by terror, to make us afraid of today, afraid of tomorrow, afraid of each other. Therefore, it cannot win unless we become unwitting accomplices, changing the way we think and feel and live."
The Bank of Canada raised its overnight lending rate to 2.5%.
Sinclair Broadcasting shares hit a 3 ½ year low. Maybe the management should concentrate on improving returns to its stockholders rather than focusing on politics.
U.S. September housing starts declined 6%. New construction of single-family homes fell 8.2%. Starts of apartment buildings rose 4.7%.
According to a study by the Project on Defense Alternatives, more than 27% of the military’s active duty troops are overseas, and more than half in combat zones, numbers not seen since the Vietnam War. More than 20% of the Army has already been deployed more than 120 days so far this year. In 2003, the total was 25%. Those numbers represent half of all deployable forces. Between 1994 and 2002, less than 5% of the Army was deployed for more than 120 days in any one year.
Mark Twain: "Terror is an efficacious agent only when it doesn’t last. In the long run there is more terror in threats than in execution, for when you get used to terror your emotions get dulled."
BET Founder and CEO Robert Johnson issued invitations on September 14 to Bush and Kerry to appear on the network to discuss issues of relevance to BET viewers. Kerry accepted, and his half-hour interview was televised on October 7. After waiting 35 days to respond, the station was informed that Bush could not make room in his schedule to appear on BET. Robert Johnson stated "there is little doubt that African- American voters have the power to decide the outcome of this election. Our invitations to President Bush and Senator Kerry were each candidate’s chance to show African-Americans that their issues, opinions, and votes really matter. To decline this opportunity does not send a very positive signal to African-Americans with just 14 days left before the election." Mr. Johmson, African-Americans are not a part of Bush’s base.
During the 2000 primary campaign, McCain turned to Bush on the Larry King Show and said "You should be ashamed." While standing next to Bush during a rally, a "fringe veteran" opined that McCain had abandoned the cause of veterans. That was an outright lie. Ed Montini of the Arizona Republic writes that "now he (McCain) supports the president wholeheartedly, saying with a polite grin after the debate in Tempe that Bush is ‘an honorable American who you can trust to lead this nation.’ Sort of the way the first President Bush must have looked when his mother told him to finish his broccoli."
I urge everyone to take time out to read an excellent article by Rick Perlstein entitled "The End of Democracy" in the Village Voice. The link to the article is:
http://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0442/perlstein.php
The recession of 2001 preceded the huge run-up in energy prices. Will they contribute to another recession or possibly to stagflation? Will Bush pay the price on November 2 for record high crude and heating oil prices? Why is Bush topping off the Strategic Oil Reserve when production is way down in the Gulf? Maybe we should ask Ken Lay. He was a participant in Bush’s energy policy. Then again, Lay is busy defending himself in two criminal matters.
I have mentioned that cell phone users are not contacted by the pollsters. The NPD Group estimates about 70% of the 24 million college-age group nationwide have cell phones and nearly 12% of young adults use cell phones only. There has been a strong push to register voters in the hip hop crowd. For example, Mary J. Blige and Outkast’s Andre 3000 plan to vote for the first time this year. Come November 2, plenty of hip hop voters will cast their votes. They could mean the difference in several neck-and-neck states.
GM will cut 900 employees from its Pontiac truck assembly plant in January due to sliding demand. AT&T will cut 279 jobs in Conyers, GA. Unifi will lay off 490 workers at a Kinston, NC plant. CuraGen will cut 110 jobs. Boeing Employees Credit Union is eliminating 85 positions or about 10.6% of their 800 staff members.
The dollar is approaching 1.26 to the euro.
According to a report released yesterday, 1.7 million veterans have no health insurance or access to gov’t hospitals and clinics. This is another example of compassionate conservatism.
According to the SF Chronicle, Google expects to add 372,000 advertiser accounts over the next four years.
Real average weekly earnings were unchanged from August to September after seasonal adjustment, according to the BLS. Average weekly hours were unchanged. Average weekly earnings were $530.88 in September. How many of those earners will be voting for Bush? Clearly, they are worse off than before he arrived in the White House.
The cost of hotel stays and other lodging away from home rose 2.7% in September.
Bill Clinton: "Terror leaves bitter enemies. The poison stays long in the well. The purpose, after all, is not to achieve military victory, but to achieve a change in circumstances by terror, to make us afraid of today, afraid of tomorrow, afraid of each other. Therefore, it cannot win unless we become unwitting accomplices, changing the way we think and feel and live."
The Bank of Canada raised its overnight lending rate to 2.5%.
Sinclair Broadcasting shares hit a 3 ½ year low. Maybe the management should concentrate on improving returns to its stockholders rather than focusing on politics.
U.S. September housing starts declined 6%. New construction of single-family homes fell 8.2%. Starts of apartment buildings rose 4.7%.
According to a study by the Project on Defense Alternatives, more than 27% of the military’s active duty troops are overseas, and more than half in combat zones, numbers not seen since the Vietnam War. More than 20% of the Army has already been deployed more than 120 days so far this year. In 2003, the total was 25%. Those numbers represent half of all deployable forces. Between 1994 and 2002, less than 5% of the Army was deployed for more than 120 days in any one year.
Mark Twain: "Terror is an efficacious agent only when it doesn’t last. In the long run there is more terror in threats than in execution, for when you get used to terror your emotions get dulled."
BET Founder and CEO Robert Johnson issued invitations on September 14 to Bush and Kerry to appear on the network to discuss issues of relevance to BET viewers. Kerry accepted, and his half-hour interview was televised on October 7. After waiting 35 days to respond, the station was informed that Bush could not make room in his schedule to appear on BET. Robert Johnson stated "there is little doubt that African- American voters have the power to decide the outcome of this election. Our invitations to President Bush and Senator Kerry were each candidate’s chance to show African-Americans that their issues, opinions, and votes really matter. To decline this opportunity does not send a very positive signal to African-Americans with just 14 days left before the election." Mr. Johmson, African-Americans are not a part of Bush’s base.
During the 2000 primary campaign, McCain turned to Bush on the Larry King Show and said "You should be ashamed." While standing next to Bush during a rally, a "fringe veteran" opined that McCain had abandoned the cause of veterans. That was an outright lie. Ed Montini of the Arizona Republic writes that "now he (McCain) supports the president wholeheartedly, saying with a polite grin after the debate in Tempe that Bush is ‘an honorable American who you can trust to lead this nation.’ Sort of the way the first President Bush must have looked when his mother told him to finish his broccoli."
I urge everyone to take time out to read an excellent article by Rick Perlstein entitled "The End of Democracy" in the Village Voice. The link to the article is:
http://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0442/perlstein.php
The recession of 2001 preceded the huge run-up in energy prices. Will they contribute to another recession or possibly to stagflation? Will Bush pay the price on November 2 for record high crude and heating oil prices? Why is Bush topping off the Strategic Oil Reserve when production is way down in the Gulf? Maybe we should ask Ken Lay. He was a participant in Bush’s energy policy. Then again, Lay is busy defending himself in two criminal matters.
Tuesday, October 19, 2004
10/19/04 Unworthy Of A Wartime President
According to Rreuters, Fed Board Governor Mark Olson stated yesterday that high oil prices were starting to slow U.S. economic growth. Tell that to Greenspan.
Ford’s auto business had a third quarter pre-tax loss of $609 million and their market share dropped to 19.7%.
In the third quarter, according to Challenger, Gray, & Christmas, announced job cuts in the technology sector soared 60% to 54,701, the highest figure in almost a year. According to John Challenger, increased job cutting is not being offset by increased hiring.
According to Robert Half Technology, only 9% of 1400 CIOs surveyed plan to expand their IT staffs in the fourth quarter.
China’s passenger car sales in September fell by more than 2%. It was the fifth straight monthly decline.
According to Editor & Publisher, Kerry leads Bush in newspaper endorsements by a margin of 45 to 30.
Foreign demand for U.S. assets declined in August to the lowest point in 2004.
U.S. chains’ weekly same-store sales were down 0.2%.
The cost of living adjustment for the 47+ million on Social Security will be about 2.5% in January. Meanwhile, Medicare premiums will increase by a record amount in dollar terms of $11.60 per month starting in January, compared with an increase of $7.90 per month this year.
IBM’s CFO: "About 45% of our revenue, and more than half of our profit, comes from annuity-like businesses, such as, long term service contracts, monthly-license charge software, maintenance, and financing contracts…revenue for Global Services is about half of IBM’s revenue…year to date, IBM has spent $4.4 billion to repurchase 47.8 million shares. Through, September, $874 million was paid out in dividends to shareholders. Debt, including Global Financing, totals $22 billion. The tax rate declined from 30% to 28.9% and pre-tax margins from 11.8% to 10.8%."
Texas Instruments stated that, primarily due to an increase in the U.S. tax benefit for export sales, the company’s effective tax rate was reduced to 21%. On September 8, the company estimated the tax rate at 26%. The fourth quarter tax rate is projected at 21%.
Charles Showalter, president of the American Federation of Government Employees National Homeland Security Council: "If President Bush believes that the U.S. is safer today than it was on September 11, he would be very surprised to learn that almost half of our members- front-line employees in the nation’s war on terror- would disagree. He might also be surprised to learn that 64% of those border security professionals believe that they have not been given the tools, training, equipment or support they need to prevent terrorists from entering the country. It is time for this Administration to wake up to reality. We live in a dangerous world and the President has talked a lot, but done very little to make it any safer. Since May, the Bureau of Customs and Border Protection has operated under a hiring freeze, due to mismanagement of funds. The legislation the President has praised in his speech today reduces spending on inspections to $20 million below what he requested."
John Gage, national president of the American Federation of Government Employees, represents some 20,000 employees of the Department of Homeland Security. He stated "on our nation’s borders, officers work with faulty equipment and expired body armor even as they face ever more violence in their daily work…the President takes credit for creating the Department of Homeland Security, which he opposed and held up for months. He congratulates himself for new funds allocated to the Transportation Security Administration, but neglects to note that even as he spoke, his allies are trying to return airport security to the hands of private contractors- just as it was during the attacks of September 11, 2001. Talk about a ‘September 10th attitude.’ The people of New Jersey suffered dearly on September 11th, losing 700 of their citizens in those brutal attacks. For Mr. Bush to exploit their grief by misrepresenting his record is unworthy of a wartime president."
Army LT. Gen. Ricardo S. Sanchez, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, complained last winter about a poor supply situation that threatened the Army troops’ ability to fight. Units were waiting an average of 40 days for critical spare parts, almost three times the Army’s average of 14 days. He wrote about the need to protective inserts to upgrade 36,000 sets of body armor, but the delivery had been twice postponed in the month prior to his writing. Sanchez concluded "I cannot sustain readiness without Army-level intervention…When America puts our troops in combat, I believe they deserve the best training, the best equipment, the full support of our government."
Bush’s performance record is unworthy of a wartime president.
According to Rreuters, Fed Board Governor Mark Olson stated yesterday that high oil prices were starting to slow U.S. economic growth. Tell that to Greenspan.
Ford’s auto business had a third quarter pre-tax loss of $609 million and their market share dropped to 19.7%.
In the third quarter, according to Challenger, Gray, & Christmas, announced job cuts in the technology sector soared 60% to 54,701, the highest figure in almost a year. According to John Challenger, increased job cutting is not being offset by increased hiring.
According to Robert Half Technology, only 9% of 1400 CIOs surveyed plan to expand their IT staffs in the fourth quarter.
China’s passenger car sales in September fell by more than 2%. It was the fifth straight monthly decline.
According to Editor & Publisher, Kerry leads Bush in newspaper endorsements by a margin of 45 to 30.
Foreign demand for U.S. assets declined in August to the lowest point in 2004.
U.S. chains’ weekly same-store sales were down 0.2%.
The cost of living adjustment for the 47+ million on Social Security will be about 2.5% in January. Meanwhile, Medicare premiums will increase by a record amount in dollar terms of $11.60 per month starting in January, compared with an increase of $7.90 per month this year.
IBM’s CFO: "About 45% of our revenue, and more than half of our profit, comes from annuity-like businesses, such as, long term service contracts, monthly-license charge software, maintenance, and financing contracts…revenue for Global Services is about half of IBM’s revenue…year to date, IBM has spent $4.4 billion to repurchase 47.8 million shares. Through, September, $874 million was paid out in dividends to shareholders. Debt, including Global Financing, totals $22 billion. The tax rate declined from 30% to 28.9% and pre-tax margins from 11.8% to 10.8%."
Texas Instruments stated that, primarily due to an increase in the U.S. tax benefit for export sales, the company’s effective tax rate was reduced to 21%. On September 8, the company estimated the tax rate at 26%. The fourth quarter tax rate is projected at 21%.
Charles Showalter, president of the American Federation of Government Employees National Homeland Security Council: "If President Bush believes that the U.S. is safer today than it was on September 11, he would be very surprised to learn that almost half of our members- front-line employees in the nation’s war on terror- would disagree. He might also be surprised to learn that 64% of those border security professionals believe that they have not been given the tools, training, equipment or support they need to prevent terrorists from entering the country. It is time for this Administration to wake up to reality. We live in a dangerous world and the President has talked a lot, but done very little to make it any safer. Since May, the Bureau of Customs and Border Protection has operated under a hiring freeze, due to mismanagement of funds. The legislation the President has praised in his speech today reduces spending on inspections to $20 million below what he requested."
John Gage, national president of the American Federation of Government Employees, represents some 20,000 employees of the Department of Homeland Security. He stated "on our nation’s borders, officers work with faulty equipment and expired body armor even as they face ever more violence in their daily work…the President takes credit for creating the Department of Homeland Security, which he opposed and held up for months. He congratulates himself for new funds allocated to the Transportation Security Administration, but neglects to note that even as he spoke, his allies are trying to return airport security to the hands of private contractors- just as it was during the attacks of September 11, 2001. Talk about a ‘September 10th attitude.’ The people of New Jersey suffered dearly on September 11th, losing 700 of their citizens in those brutal attacks. For Mr. Bush to exploit their grief by misrepresenting his record is unworthy of a wartime president."
Army LT. Gen. Ricardo S. Sanchez, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, complained last winter about a poor supply situation that threatened the Army troops’ ability to fight. Units were waiting an average of 40 days for critical spare parts, almost three times the Army’s average of 14 days. He wrote about the need to protective inserts to upgrade 36,000 sets of body armor, but the delivery had been twice postponed in the month prior to his writing. Sanchez concluded "I cannot sustain readiness without Army-level intervention…When America puts our troops in combat, I believe they deserve the best training, the best equipment, the full support of our government."
Bush’s performance record is unworthy of a wartime president.
Monday, October 18, 2004
10/18/04 We Had A Theme
A veteran State Dept officer directly involved in Iraq policy stated "we didn't go in with a plan (postwar). We went in with a theory." An Army War College report completed in February 2003, a month before the invasion, stated "the possibility of the United States winning the war and losing the peace in Iraq is real and serious." Douglas Feith, the number 3 official in the State Dept, remarked "we had a theme in our minds, a strategic idea, of liberation rather than occupation, giving them (Iraqis) more authority even at the expense of having things done with greater efficiency by coalition forces." It's no wonder that our invasion has not made the world safer. Postwar themes do not make for careful and effective postwar planning. As we have seen, they make for chaos and killing and maiming.
Presidential election voting begins today in Florida and Colorado. The Miami Herald is endorsing Kerry. The Tampa Tribune won't back either candidate. The Denver papers are split in their support.
According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and the Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center, households comprising the middle 20% of the income scale receive only 9%, or an average savings of $162, of the recently-passed tax cuts. Households with incomes ranging from $200,000 to $500,000 will receive benefits amounting to $2,390. Meanwhile, the withholding tax ceiling is drawn equally from the same two income groups. That is not a level playing field.
Pete Peterson, former secretary of commerce: "The ultimate test of a moral society is the kind of world it leaves to its children. And so I think about the concept that we're slipping our own kids and grandkids a check for our free lunch, I say we're failing the moral test."
Leonard Pitts Jr., Miami Herald syndicated columnist, writing about this presidential election: "Who cares if rules are broken, who cares if ethics are bent, who cares if lies are told, so long as it helps my guy. Truth is, we should all care. And we should all be appalled at the malleable morality and situational principles of those who do not."
A senior Bush official was reported as telling Ron Suskind that "we're the empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality- judiciously, as you will- we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors...and you, all of you, will be left to study just what we do." Hopefully, the electorate will have something to say about this "empire" and this "reality" and these "actors." They are malignant cancers, and I have studied that subject matter judiciously.
According to a study released today by the Pew Hispanic Center, the wealth gap between Hispanics and whites is growing. In addition, there is a growing wealth gap between blacks and whites. Early on in a recession, the unemployment rate for blacks and Hispanics rises, and those two groups recover late from the recession. This is precisely what took place in the 2001 recession that was proclaimed over in November 2001.
Mark Twain: "If we would learn what the human race really is at bottom, we need only observe it in election times."
A veteran State Dept officer directly involved in Iraq policy stated "we didn't go in with a plan (postwar). We went in with a theory." An Army War College report completed in February 2003, a month before the invasion, stated "the possibility of the United States winning the war and losing the peace in Iraq is real and serious." Douglas Feith, the number 3 official in the State Dept, remarked "we had a theme in our minds, a strategic idea, of liberation rather than occupation, giving them (Iraqis) more authority even at the expense of having things done with greater efficiency by coalition forces." It's no wonder that our invasion has not made the world safer. Postwar themes do not make for careful and effective postwar planning. As we have seen, they make for chaos and killing and maiming.
Presidential election voting begins today in Florida and Colorado. The Miami Herald is endorsing Kerry. The Tampa Tribune won't back either candidate. The Denver papers are split in their support.
According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and the Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center, households comprising the middle 20% of the income scale receive only 9%, or an average savings of $162, of the recently-passed tax cuts. Households with incomes ranging from $200,000 to $500,000 will receive benefits amounting to $2,390. Meanwhile, the withholding tax ceiling is drawn equally from the same two income groups. That is not a level playing field.
Pete Peterson, former secretary of commerce: "The ultimate test of a moral society is the kind of world it leaves to its children. And so I think about the concept that we're slipping our own kids and grandkids a check for our free lunch, I say we're failing the moral test."
Leonard Pitts Jr., Miami Herald syndicated columnist, writing about this presidential election: "Who cares if rules are broken, who cares if ethics are bent, who cares if lies are told, so long as it helps my guy. Truth is, we should all care. And we should all be appalled at the malleable morality and situational principles of those who do not."
A senior Bush official was reported as telling Ron Suskind that "we're the empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality- judiciously, as you will- we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors...and you, all of you, will be left to study just what we do." Hopefully, the electorate will have something to say about this "empire" and this "reality" and these "actors." They are malignant cancers, and I have studied that subject matter judiciously.
According to a study released today by the Pew Hispanic Center, the wealth gap between Hispanics and whites is growing. In addition, there is a growing wealth gap between blacks and whites. Early on in a recession, the unemployment rate for blacks and Hispanics rises, and those two groups recover late from the recession. This is precisely what took place in the 2001 recession that was proclaimed over in November 2001.
Mark Twain: "If we would learn what the human race really is at bottom, we need only observe it in election times."
Sunday, October 17, 2004
10/17/04 A Very Different Election
In 2000, nearly 49% of voting-age Americans did not cast ballots. Starting tomorrow, voting will begin. That's right. Not November 2. The final returns will be Nov. 2. In my view, the polls are way off the mark. For example, Latinos compose a quarter of Arizona's population. There has been an enormous number of newly registered Hispanic voters- in the Southwest, Colorado, and Florida. In addition, in Arizona, voter registration is up sharply for Native Americans. We are about to witness a much higher voter turnout. In Florida, voting begins tomorrow and ends on Nov. 2. Once you vote, the vote cannot be changed. It's not like a proxy card in a corporate contest.
Since 1972, studies have shown that participation among voters younger than age 26 has fallen by 13%. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, about 24 million people ages 18 to 24 are eligible to vote this year. Results from the New Voters Project indicate that hundreds of thousands of newly registered youth voters have occurred. It is part of the changing voter landscape.
Voter registration is up for both single and married women. Many single women, who do not fall in the younger than age 26 group, are newly voter registrants. Many are cell phone users only, and polls are not taken of cell phone users only.
Most political analysts focus on Ohio as a key state, and it is. In my view, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico could become determining states.
Bush: "Over the past four years, I have brought a straightforward approach to the presidency. I tell you what I'm going to do, and I keep my word." Since Bush decided to invade Iraq, at least 1103 U.S. soldiers have been killed and over 7700 wounded. This nation cannot afford Bush's word for another four years. If that happens, you will be able to count the carbs. There will be bread lines. You can go to the bank on that.
The dollar fell to a 7-month low against the euro. Can you imagine how low the dollar would be if Germany's economy did not have 10% plus unemployment?
Barack Obama: "There's not a liberal America and a conservative America. There is the United States of America."
Yesterday, Wal-Mart stated that, the number of people waiting to receive their mid-month paychecks to make purchases, was still pronounced. About 20% of their customers are described as paycheck-to-paycheck.
ISI Group's Ed Hyman, our nation's most accurate economic forecaster, reduced his forecast for 2005 GDP to 2.5% growth due to the impact of surging oil prices.
Steven Weiting, Citigroup economist, thinks that earnings for S&P 500 companies will grow but 6% next year, sharply below the Thomason First Call consensus of 9.4%.
Since August, Alaska Airlines has announced the layoff of 900 managers, mechanics, and aircraft cleaners. The company's CEO stated "they are permanent. We can't count on the economy coming back and fixing them. We have a cost problem that needs to be addresses. That takes tough decisions. No doubt there are more to come." We have a cost problem in federal government. Tough decisions have not been made. Bush has not vetoed one spending bill. Then again, he's the first president with an MBA. The degree could interfere with his ability to think.
The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office projects additional debt of $5.7 trillion should Bush's 2005 budget be enacted. That would increase the national debt to over $13 trillion. Thirteen would be a very unlucky number.
The hurricanes in Florida created massive losses. David Denslow, director of the Economic Analysis program of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida, stated "total losses to private and public property, according to preliminary estimates, could be between $40 billion and $60 billion." Denslow is a member of Jed Bush's Council of Economic Advisors.
Cyrus McCormick: "Indomitable perseverence in a business properly understood always ensures ultimate success."
Nick Denton is publisher of Gawker Media. He observed "a lot of advertisers want to participate in blogs, but they don't know how."
Bernie Brillstein, Hollywood producer and manager: "You're nobody in this town unless somebody wants you dead."
Ken Langone, a founder of Home Depot and former head ot the NYSE compensation committee, stated of J.P. Morgan Chase's William Harrison, he's "the fucking genius that gave Enron all the money."
In 2000, nearly 49% of voting-age Americans did not cast ballots. Starting tomorrow, voting will begin. That's right. Not November 2. The final returns will be Nov. 2. In my view, the polls are way off the mark. For example, Latinos compose a quarter of Arizona's population. There has been an enormous number of newly registered Hispanic voters- in the Southwest, Colorado, and Florida. In addition, in Arizona, voter registration is up sharply for Native Americans. We are about to witness a much higher voter turnout. In Florida, voting begins tomorrow and ends on Nov. 2. Once you vote, the vote cannot be changed. It's not like a proxy card in a corporate contest.
Since 1972, studies have shown that participation among voters younger than age 26 has fallen by 13%. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, about 24 million people ages 18 to 24 are eligible to vote this year. Results from the New Voters Project indicate that hundreds of thousands of newly registered youth voters have occurred. It is part of the changing voter landscape.
Voter registration is up for both single and married women. Many single women, who do not fall in the younger than age 26 group, are newly voter registrants. Many are cell phone users only, and polls are not taken of cell phone users only.
Most political analysts focus on Ohio as a key state, and it is. In my view, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico could become determining states.
Bush: "Over the past four years, I have brought a straightforward approach to the presidency. I tell you what I'm going to do, and I keep my word." Since Bush decided to invade Iraq, at least 1103 U.S. soldiers have been killed and over 7700 wounded. This nation cannot afford Bush's word for another four years. If that happens, you will be able to count the carbs. There will be bread lines. You can go to the bank on that.
The dollar fell to a 7-month low against the euro. Can you imagine how low the dollar would be if Germany's economy did not have 10% plus unemployment?
Barack Obama: "There's not a liberal America and a conservative America. There is the United States of America."
Yesterday, Wal-Mart stated that, the number of people waiting to receive their mid-month paychecks to make purchases, was still pronounced. About 20% of their customers are described as paycheck-to-paycheck.
ISI Group's Ed Hyman, our nation's most accurate economic forecaster, reduced his forecast for 2005 GDP to 2.5% growth due to the impact of surging oil prices.
Steven Weiting, Citigroup economist, thinks that earnings for S&P 500 companies will grow but 6% next year, sharply below the Thomason First Call consensus of 9.4%.
Since August, Alaska Airlines has announced the layoff of 900 managers, mechanics, and aircraft cleaners. The company's CEO stated "they are permanent. We can't count on the economy coming back and fixing them. We have a cost problem that needs to be addresses. That takes tough decisions. No doubt there are more to come." We have a cost problem in federal government. Tough decisions have not been made. Bush has not vetoed one spending bill. Then again, he's the first president with an MBA. The degree could interfere with his ability to think.
The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office projects additional debt of $5.7 trillion should Bush's 2005 budget be enacted. That would increase the national debt to over $13 trillion. Thirteen would be a very unlucky number.
The hurricanes in Florida created massive losses. David Denslow, director of the Economic Analysis program of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida, stated "total losses to private and public property, according to preliminary estimates, could be between $40 billion and $60 billion." Denslow is a member of Jed Bush's Council of Economic Advisors.
Cyrus McCormick: "Indomitable perseverence in a business properly understood always ensures ultimate success."
Nick Denton is publisher of Gawker Media. He observed "a lot of advertisers want to participate in blogs, but they don't know how."
Bernie Brillstein, Hollywood producer and manager: "You're nobody in this town unless somebody wants you dead."
Ken Langone, a founder of Home Depot and former head ot the NYSE compensation committee, stated of J.P. Morgan Chase's William Harrison, he's "the fucking genius that gave Enron all the money."
Saturday, October 16, 2004
10/16/04 A Parliament Of Whores
Yesterday it was Alan Greenspan's turn to calm the markets. He is not terribly concerned about the price of crude oil at $54.93 because a few decades ago the impact on our economy was much greater. Today the rising price has only cut about 0.75% from our GDP growth. He did not discuss the psychological changes that have occurred in the equity markets and the resulting losses running into more than 0.75% of our GDP growth. He didn't mention the thermostats that will be turned down this winter with record high home heating oil prices. Like almost every government employee, he didn't really tell the full story. Then again, back in May, he stated he wasn't concerned about the short term- only the long term. Why should he worry in the short term? His job is secure in the short term. His two-job household is not concerned with making ends meet. His is not a paycheck-to-paycheck home.
P.J. O'Rourke: "Every government is a parliament of whores. The trouble is, in a democracy, the whores are us."
In the year ended June 2004, according to the Labor Dept, the Washington DC area added 82,000 jobs, including 31,000 local govt contracting jobs, more than any other metropolitan area. So much for small govt under a Republican administartion.
Benjamin Franklin: "They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."
The Bush administration's annual review of foreign exchange policy has been delayed.
Yesterday was the first day of the holy month of Ramadan.
The U.S. Economic Cycle Research Institute stated their weekly leading index fell 1% last week, the slowest growth in 81 weeks. The index has fallen for nine straight weeks, and the ECRI economists remarked the data shows the economy is not reacclerating out of the soft patch. In fact, the opposite is the case.
The October University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 87.5 from 94.2 in September.
Capacity utilization in September was unchanged at 77.2%, and U.S. industrial production rose 0.1% in the same period, weaker than expectations.
Many have asked why, if I think the economic news is so bad, how is it possible that consumer spending picked up in September. It's easy to explain: (1) GM, Ford, and Chrysler gave enormous incentives to move cars off dealer lots. Only Chrysler made money from vehicles in the month; and (2) the food and beverage and building materials areas were bolstered by the hurricanes. That's correct. People stocked up before and after the storms. As Wal-Mart stated, hurricanes are a net plus for their business. The same is true for Home Depot and Lowe's.
The Empire State manufacturing index fell to 17.4 in October from 27.3 in September. The new orders index fell to 21.2 in October from 26.2 in the prior month, shipments to to 19.1 from 32.1, the unfilled orders index to MINUS 2.7 from 11.7, the employment index to 17.7 from 20.3, and the workweek index to 4.9 from 17.3. Prices paid rose to a record 59.2 from 52, but prices received fell to 15.0 from 16.3. This report reflects trouble with a capital T.
Sprint to cut 700 jobs.
Standard & Poor's yesterday lowered GM's credit ratings to just above junk level. What happens when profitability dries up at GMAC?
Yesterday the U.S. Conference of Mayors issued their sixth annual metro economies report demonstrating that the nation's 318 metro areas acccount for 85.4% of the nation's GDP and 88.6% of the labor income. In 2003, a total of 109 million workers were employed in metro areas, amounting to 84% of total national employment. Of the world's 100 largest economies, 47 are U.S. metro areas. Tom Cochran, executive director of the U.S. COnference of Mayors, stated "contrary to popular belief, it's not the economy of the 50 states that drives this nation. It's the 318 metro economies- made up of cities- that are the strength of this nation." He reported that the nation still had lost over 1 million jobs since its peak employment level in March 2001.
Alan Greenspan: "Our fiscal prospects are, in my judgment, a significant obstacle to long-term stability, because the budget deficit is not readily subject to correction by market forces that stabilize other imbalances."
During the 12 months ended in September, retail jobs rose by only 94,000.
The Education Dept. estimates that elementary and secondary student population grew by only 160,000 in 2004. This slowing growth will hold down the need for hiring teachers. As such, over the past year, the education sector added but 135,000 jobs.
Frank Luntz, a pollster and president of the Luntz Research Companies: "Asserting that the economy is strong and Iraq a success is simply not credible to the majority of Americans- or to the stubborn 5% who remain uncommitted...It is George W. Bush who should be worried."
Yesterday it was Alan Greenspan's turn to calm the markets. He is not terribly concerned about the price of crude oil at $54.93 because a few decades ago the impact on our economy was much greater. Today the rising price has only cut about 0.75% from our GDP growth. He did not discuss the psychological changes that have occurred in the equity markets and the resulting losses running into more than 0.75% of our GDP growth. He didn't mention the thermostats that will be turned down this winter with record high home heating oil prices. Like almost every government employee, he didn't really tell the full story. Then again, back in May, he stated he wasn't concerned about the short term- only the long term. Why should he worry in the short term? His job is secure in the short term. His two-job household is not concerned with making ends meet. His is not a paycheck-to-paycheck home.
P.J. O'Rourke: "Every government is a parliament of whores. The trouble is, in a democracy, the whores are us."
In the year ended June 2004, according to the Labor Dept, the Washington DC area added 82,000 jobs, including 31,000 local govt contracting jobs, more than any other metropolitan area. So much for small govt under a Republican administartion.
Benjamin Franklin: "They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."
The Bush administration's annual review of foreign exchange policy has been delayed.
Yesterday was the first day of the holy month of Ramadan.
The U.S. Economic Cycle Research Institute stated their weekly leading index fell 1% last week, the slowest growth in 81 weeks. The index has fallen for nine straight weeks, and the ECRI economists remarked the data shows the economy is not reacclerating out of the soft patch. In fact, the opposite is the case.
The October University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 87.5 from 94.2 in September.
Capacity utilization in September was unchanged at 77.2%, and U.S. industrial production rose 0.1% in the same period, weaker than expectations.
Many have asked why, if I think the economic news is so bad, how is it possible that consumer spending picked up in September. It's easy to explain: (1) GM, Ford, and Chrysler gave enormous incentives to move cars off dealer lots. Only Chrysler made money from vehicles in the month; and (2) the food and beverage and building materials areas were bolstered by the hurricanes. That's correct. People stocked up before and after the storms. As Wal-Mart stated, hurricanes are a net plus for their business. The same is true for Home Depot and Lowe's.
The Empire State manufacturing index fell to 17.4 in October from 27.3 in September. The new orders index fell to 21.2 in October from 26.2 in the prior month, shipments to to 19.1 from 32.1, the unfilled orders index to MINUS 2.7 from 11.7, the employment index to 17.7 from 20.3, and the workweek index to 4.9 from 17.3. Prices paid rose to a record 59.2 from 52, but prices received fell to 15.0 from 16.3. This report reflects trouble with a capital T.
Sprint to cut 700 jobs.
Standard & Poor's yesterday lowered GM's credit ratings to just above junk level. What happens when profitability dries up at GMAC?
Yesterday the U.S. Conference of Mayors issued their sixth annual metro economies report demonstrating that the nation's 318 metro areas acccount for 85.4% of the nation's GDP and 88.6% of the labor income. In 2003, a total of 109 million workers were employed in metro areas, amounting to 84% of total national employment. Of the world's 100 largest economies, 47 are U.S. metro areas. Tom Cochran, executive director of the U.S. COnference of Mayors, stated "contrary to popular belief, it's not the economy of the 50 states that drives this nation. It's the 318 metro economies- made up of cities- that are the strength of this nation." He reported that the nation still had lost over 1 million jobs since its peak employment level in March 2001.
Alan Greenspan: "Our fiscal prospects are, in my judgment, a significant obstacle to long-term stability, because the budget deficit is not readily subject to correction by market forces that stabilize other imbalances."
During the 12 months ended in September, retail jobs rose by only 94,000.
The Education Dept. estimates that elementary and secondary student population grew by only 160,000 in 2004. This slowing growth will hold down the need for hiring teachers. As such, over the past year, the education sector added but 135,000 jobs.
Frank Luntz, a pollster and president of the Luntz Research Companies: "Asserting that the economy is strong and Iraq a success is simply not credible to the majority of Americans- or to the stubborn 5% who remain uncommitted...It is George W. Bush who should be worried."
Friday, October 15, 2004
10/15/04 Hitting The Ceiling
A year ago the Congress raised the debt ceiling by about $1 trillion to $7.384 trillion. At the start of Bush's term in office, the ceiling was $6 trillion, and had been stable for several years under Clinton. A year ago I mentioned that, the way Bush spends money coupled with the rising trade deficit, the Treasury would be back asking the Congress to raise the debt limit prior to the end of 2004. The Treasury ate through that $1 trillion and face a debt refunding on November 3, the day after the election. This will be the third time in four years that the Congress has been asked to raise the debt ceiling, a first, and is a true reflection of Bush's fiscal irresponsibility. His spending and that of the Republican controlled Congress is a WMD. You don't have to search in caves for the WMD. It's all around you. We're choking on pork. With conservatives like this, Saddam Hussein almost looks like a saint. Bush is destroying the economic well being of this nation.
Milton Berle: "You can lead a man to Congress, but you can't make him think."
Humphrey Bogart: "They'll nail anyone who ever scratched his ass during the National Anthem."
Hitting oil jumped 5 cents a gallon to $1.55 and crude oil closed at a new high of $54.62 a barrel. Heating oil supplies fell by 2.5 million barrels last week, and are 8% below last year's levels, stated the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Some believe China's oil imports will jump 20% next year. I question that. On the whole, China's demand for imports eased last month, an indication that country's growth is slowing.
In a Guardian of London Poll, three times as many of their readers support Kerry for president than they do Bush. The Guardian invited their readers to contact voters in Clark County, Ohio, which is 30 miles west of Columbus, about the importance of the Nov. 2 election. For the best four letters, the paper offered a three-day trip to Clark County. The paper paid $25 for a list of all registered voters in Clark County. The Guardian has received thousands of requests for names and addresses so that letters could be written to the registered voters in Clark County.
In August, the U.S. trade deficit increased to a near monthly record of $54 billion. It was the third straight month that the trade defcit exceeded $50 billion. It was the third time ever that the $50 billion level had been topped. It should be noted that this was taking place in August while our exports rose to the second highest level on record. The trade deficit keeps rising even though our dollar has fallen 13% on a trade-weighted basis over the past two years.
Our budget deficit rose to a record $413 billion. Without the assistance of record low interest rates, the deficit would have been even higher.
Lenny Bruce: "The only anonymous donor is the guy who knocks up your daughter."
For the latest week, initial jobless claims rose 15,000 to 352,000. This should not have come as a surprise.
In the third quarter, GM lost money on their vehicle manufacturing operations in the U.S., Europe, and North America. It was the first loss on North American car manufacturing in six years.Their financing arm produced enough earnings to put their disappointing results in the black. What good is it to keep producing vehicles at unrealistically high levels only to sell them at a loss? The stockholders suffer and our GDP becomes overstated. To produce at a loss does not reflect a healthy GDP.
It's hard to understand. Despite the fact that the stock market is down for the past three months, optimism remains high on Wall Street. Company forecasts are reduced on a daily basis, and yet optimism remains high. For example, Lam Research stated that bookings for the fourth quarter will be down 5% to 15% and that demand has tapered off from earlier expectations.The consumer has gone into a shell, and optimism remains high in some corners for the holiday season. With high gas and heating oil prices pressuring consumer cash flow, I figure much of the holiday spending will be for gift cards. In addition, much of the window shopping activity will be driven to the internet rather than to the malls.
Robert Heinlein: "The supreme irony of life is that hardly anyone gets out of it alive."
Even though GM will cut 12,000 jobs in Europe over the next two years, this measure will not be sufficient to produce a profit in their operations there. Since 1999, GM has lost money in Europe.
A year ago the Congress raised the debt ceiling by about $1 trillion to $7.384 trillion. At the start of Bush's term in office, the ceiling was $6 trillion, and had been stable for several years under Clinton. A year ago I mentioned that, the way Bush spends money coupled with the rising trade deficit, the Treasury would be back asking the Congress to raise the debt limit prior to the end of 2004. The Treasury ate through that $1 trillion and face a debt refunding on November 3, the day after the election. This will be the third time in four years that the Congress has been asked to raise the debt ceiling, a first, and is a true reflection of Bush's fiscal irresponsibility. His spending and that of the Republican controlled Congress is a WMD. You don't have to search in caves for the WMD. It's all around you. We're choking on pork. With conservatives like this, Saddam Hussein almost looks like a saint. Bush is destroying the economic well being of this nation.
Milton Berle: "You can lead a man to Congress, but you can't make him think."
Humphrey Bogart: "They'll nail anyone who ever scratched his ass during the National Anthem."
Hitting oil jumped 5 cents a gallon to $1.55 and crude oil closed at a new high of $54.62 a barrel. Heating oil supplies fell by 2.5 million barrels last week, and are 8% below last year's levels, stated the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Some believe China's oil imports will jump 20% next year. I question that. On the whole, China's demand for imports eased last month, an indication that country's growth is slowing.
In a Guardian of London Poll, three times as many of their readers support Kerry for president than they do Bush. The Guardian invited their readers to contact voters in Clark County, Ohio, which is 30 miles west of Columbus, about the importance of the Nov. 2 election. For the best four letters, the paper offered a three-day trip to Clark County. The paper paid $25 for a list of all registered voters in Clark County. The Guardian has received thousands of requests for names and addresses so that letters could be written to the registered voters in Clark County.
In August, the U.S. trade deficit increased to a near monthly record of $54 billion. It was the third straight month that the trade defcit exceeded $50 billion. It was the third time ever that the $50 billion level had been topped. It should be noted that this was taking place in August while our exports rose to the second highest level on record. The trade deficit keeps rising even though our dollar has fallen 13% on a trade-weighted basis over the past two years.
Our budget deficit rose to a record $413 billion. Without the assistance of record low interest rates, the deficit would have been even higher.
Lenny Bruce: "The only anonymous donor is the guy who knocks up your daughter."
For the latest week, initial jobless claims rose 15,000 to 352,000. This should not have come as a surprise.
In the third quarter, GM lost money on their vehicle manufacturing operations in the U.S., Europe, and North America. It was the first loss on North American car manufacturing in six years.Their financing arm produced enough earnings to put their disappointing results in the black. What good is it to keep producing vehicles at unrealistically high levels only to sell them at a loss? The stockholders suffer and our GDP becomes overstated. To produce at a loss does not reflect a healthy GDP.
It's hard to understand. Despite the fact that the stock market is down for the past three months, optimism remains high on Wall Street. Company forecasts are reduced on a daily basis, and yet optimism remains high. For example, Lam Research stated that bookings for the fourth quarter will be down 5% to 15% and that demand has tapered off from earlier expectations.The consumer has gone into a shell, and optimism remains high in some corners for the holiday season. With high gas and heating oil prices pressuring consumer cash flow, I figure much of the holiday spending will be for gift cards. In addition, much of the window shopping activity will be driven to the internet rather than to the malls.
Robert Heinlein: "The supreme irony of life is that hardly anyone gets out of it alive."
Even though GM will cut 12,000 jobs in Europe over the next two years, this measure will not be sufficient to produce a profit in their operations there. Since 1999, GM has lost money in Europe.
Thursday, October 14, 2004
10/14/04 The Truth
Elvis Presley: "Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't goin' away."
The title of the 8/6/2001 Presidential Daily Briefing by Condi Rice: "Bin Laden determined to attack inside the U.S."
Heating oil hit a record $1.50 a gallon and November crude settled at $53.64 a barrel.
Novellus stated that its orders in September "weakened significantly."
The BLS revised productivity in the second quarter to 1.5% in the business sector and to 2.5% in the nonfarm sector. Real hourly compensation for manufacturing declined 1.5%, the largest quarterly decline since the second quarter of 2000, and unit labor costs dropped 3.5%.
The Conference Board reported that chief executives' confidence declined again, to 63 at the end of the third quarter from 70 in the prior quarter. Both current conditions and expectations softened.
According to the latest Zogby poll, Bush has lost the support of the largest segments of the Arab American populations- Roman Catholics and those born in the U.S.
The API reported that September oil output was at its lowest monthly level in 50 years.
Copper prices fell the most in 16 years in London amid speculation that growth is cooling in China and the U.S. Profit taking certainly did play a role too. In addition, there is the believe that next year's copper production will be sufficent to meet demand.
There have not been any hurricanes in October and hopefully that will continue to be the case. Therefore, in October, no one can blame the lack of hiring on hurricanes. Look around you. How many companies do you see or hear that are hiring? I'm not talking temporary work or seasonal work for the holidays. Go to any state. The layoffs and the plant closings are dwarfing the serious hiring. Analysts missed the point of the Intel report. This company doesn't have a stupid CFO. In a month's time, his projection for their quarterly tax rate wasn't even close. Intel's business in September in the U.S. weakened significantly. That was also true of Novellus. How many other key tech companies had the same experience? Technology is the growth engine in our economy. That engine is sputtering. I Pods can only carry a myriad of songs- not the economy.
Elvis Presley: "Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't goin' away."
The title of the 8/6/2001 Presidential Daily Briefing by Condi Rice: "Bin Laden determined to attack inside the U.S."
Heating oil hit a record $1.50 a gallon and November crude settled at $53.64 a barrel.
Novellus stated that its orders in September "weakened significantly."
The BLS revised productivity in the second quarter to 1.5% in the business sector and to 2.5% in the nonfarm sector. Real hourly compensation for manufacturing declined 1.5%, the largest quarterly decline since the second quarter of 2000, and unit labor costs dropped 3.5%.
The Conference Board reported that chief executives' confidence declined again, to 63 at the end of the third quarter from 70 in the prior quarter. Both current conditions and expectations softened.
According to the latest Zogby poll, Bush has lost the support of the largest segments of the Arab American populations- Roman Catholics and those born in the U.S.
The API reported that September oil output was at its lowest monthly level in 50 years.
Copper prices fell the most in 16 years in London amid speculation that growth is cooling in China and the U.S. Profit taking certainly did play a role too. In addition, there is the believe that next year's copper production will be sufficent to meet demand.
There have not been any hurricanes in October and hopefully that will continue to be the case. Therefore, in October, no one can blame the lack of hiring on hurricanes. Look around you. How many companies do you see or hear that are hiring? I'm not talking temporary work or seasonal work for the holidays. Go to any state. The layoffs and the plant closings are dwarfing the serious hiring. Analysts missed the point of the Intel report. This company doesn't have a stupid CFO. In a month's time, his projection for their quarterly tax rate wasn't even close. Intel's business in September in the U.S. weakened significantly. That was also true of Novellus. How many other key tech companies had the same experience? Technology is the growth engine in our economy. That engine is sputtering. I Pods can only carry a myriad of songs- not the economy.
Wednesday, October 13, 2004
10/13/04 Is Bush's Time Up?
John Edwards: "I guarantee you, George Bush is going to do everything he can to put lipstick on this pig. But no matter how much lipstick you put on it, it's still a pig."
The Crawford, TX Iconoclast: "Kerry Will Restore American Dignity." The Iconoclast majority owner was a fervent supporter of Ronald Reagan.
Germany's Defense Minister stated his country might deploy troops in Iraq if conditions there change.
Gasoline prices rose to $2.03 a gallon, the highest ever for October and the highest price in four months.
Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley: "Higher energy costs may reduce consumer spending on other goods and services by $30 to $40 billion in coming months."
Ethan Harris, chief economist at Lehman Bros: "Consumer spending is going to lag unless you get rapid job growth, and it doesn't look like that's going to happen."
Intel's effective tax rate for the third quarter was 21.4% versus the July expectation of 31% and below the September expectation of 29.5%. In other words, their mix of business changed drastically in a very short time. Higher profits were generated in lower tax jurisdictions, simply put, outside the U.S. In sum, Intel reduced its tax provision for the quarter by $195 million, increasing earnings by 3 cents per share. Gross margins fell to 55.7% from an expected level of 58%, primarily the result of inventory reserve adjustments. The company used cash of $2.5 billion to repurchase 106.3 million shares of stock. Flash memory units were flat. Many analysts believe the report represented good news. I continue to believe long term holders will be rewarded. The short-term is clouded.
In the Iraq war, 1,075 of our U.S. soldiers have been killed and 7,750 wounded. For what?
According to the USDA, farmers will harvest 11.6 billion bushels of corn, 15% more than in 2003, and 3.1 billion bushels of soybeans, up 27% from the prior year. Both would be records.
Late in 1931 and again in Roosevelt's inauguration in 1933, the Fed sensed (incorrectly) that the economy was picking up steam and raised interest rates. After each rate hike the economy fell further. In the 1930s, foreigners did not own vast amounts of our Treasury bonds, stocks, and real estate.
The Bank of International Settlements: "Given the current low level of inflation and the uncertainty of forecasts, the episodes of declining prices... cannot be ruled out...most advanced industrial economies might be one deep recession away from experiencing deflation."
According to congressional estimates, Joseph Abate, Lehman Bros economist, stated the cost of the full Bush economic package would exceed 2.2 trillion dollars over the next decade while Kerry's plan would likely increase debt by 1.1 trillion dollars over the same period. Both results are unsatisfactory; however, Bush played the fear card when he stated the Kerry plan would lead to increased taxes. Bush's package creates twice the debt and is the greater danger to our economic well being and will lead to lower living standards. He has nothing left in his arsenal but the fear card. It's a transparent nothing.
Billy Graham: "When wealth is lost, nothing is lost; when health is lost, something is lost. When charcter is lost, all is lost."
Norway is the world's third largest oil exporter. Yesterday they were facing a rig strike.
John Edwards: "I guarantee you, George Bush is going to do everything he can to put lipstick on this pig. But no matter how much lipstick you put on it, it's still a pig."
The Crawford, TX Iconoclast: "Kerry Will Restore American Dignity." The Iconoclast majority owner was a fervent supporter of Ronald Reagan.
Germany's Defense Minister stated his country might deploy troops in Iraq if conditions there change.
Gasoline prices rose to $2.03 a gallon, the highest ever for October and the highest price in four months.
Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley: "Higher energy costs may reduce consumer spending on other goods and services by $30 to $40 billion in coming months."
Ethan Harris, chief economist at Lehman Bros: "Consumer spending is going to lag unless you get rapid job growth, and it doesn't look like that's going to happen."
Intel's effective tax rate for the third quarter was 21.4% versus the July expectation of 31% and below the September expectation of 29.5%. In other words, their mix of business changed drastically in a very short time. Higher profits were generated in lower tax jurisdictions, simply put, outside the U.S. In sum, Intel reduced its tax provision for the quarter by $195 million, increasing earnings by 3 cents per share. Gross margins fell to 55.7% from an expected level of 58%, primarily the result of inventory reserve adjustments. The company used cash of $2.5 billion to repurchase 106.3 million shares of stock. Flash memory units were flat. Many analysts believe the report represented good news. I continue to believe long term holders will be rewarded. The short-term is clouded.
In the Iraq war, 1,075 of our U.S. soldiers have been killed and 7,750 wounded. For what?
According to the USDA, farmers will harvest 11.6 billion bushels of corn, 15% more than in 2003, and 3.1 billion bushels of soybeans, up 27% from the prior year. Both would be records.
Late in 1931 and again in Roosevelt's inauguration in 1933, the Fed sensed (incorrectly) that the economy was picking up steam and raised interest rates. After each rate hike the economy fell further. In the 1930s, foreigners did not own vast amounts of our Treasury bonds, stocks, and real estate.
The Bank of International Settlements: "Given the current low level of inflation and the uncertainty of forecasts, the episodes of declining prices... cannot be ruled out...most advanced industrial economies might be one deep recession away from experiencing deflation."
According to congressional estimates, Joseph Abate, Lehman Bros economist, stated the cost of the full Bush economic package would exceed 2.2 trillion dollars over the next decade while Kerry's plan would likely increase debt by 1.1 trillion dollars over the same period. Both results are unsatisfactory; however, Bush played the fear card when he stated the Kerry plan would lead to increased taxes. Bush's package creates twice the debt and is the greater danger to our economic well being and will lead to lower living standards. He has nothing left in his arsenal but the fear card. It's a transparent nothing.
Billy Graham: "When wealth is lost, nothing is lost; when health is lost, something is lost. When charcter is lost, all is lost."
Norway is the world's third largest oil exporter. Yesterday they were facing a rig strike.
Tuesday, October 12, 2004
10/12/04 Families Left Behind
A recent non-partisan study funded by Annie E. Casey, Ford and Rockefeller foundations paints a portrait of working low-income families. The study concluded that one out of every four working families earns such a low wage that they struggle to survive financially, and that "one emergency- a broken down car, rent increase, or serious illness- can disrupt the families’ precarious equilibrium and plunge them into financial chaos. We are talking about 9.2 million families including 20 million children. Their breadwinners work an average of 1.2 jobs, and 72% were born in the U.S.
Retiree health care benefits are being cut as costs escalate. More and more companies raise premiums and reduce coverage for former workers, despite in many cases, a company guaranteed medical benefits for life.
The IEA stated that demand for oil is rising faster than had recently been forecast, and this provided the fuel for crude to rise above $54 a barrel. The average cost of unleaded gas on a national basis in the U.S. is now $2 a gallon. The rising price of gasoline at the pump places a further squeeze on the pocketbooks of middle and lower-middle class working families. Retailers have already begun to feel the impact. Estimates for fourth quarter GDP will be reduced.
An eruption could occur at any time at Mt. St. Helens and without much warning. Temperatures are rising in the crater and magma is pushing out and up.
The dollar is at a one-month low against the yen.
Ten-year Treasury bond yields are back down to 4.09% and only about 11 basis points from the most recent low point. Gold also continues on a firm footing.
Brandon Roberts, co-author of Working Hard, Falling Short remarked "what we haven’t come to grips with is how large this number is" of working low-income families.
A recent non-partisan study funded by Annie E. Casey, Ford and Rockefeller foundations paints a portrait of working low-income families. The study concluded that one out of every four working families earns such a low wage that they struggle to survive financially, and that "one emergency- a broken down car, rent increase, or serious illness- can disrupt the families’ precarious equilibrium and plunge them into financial chaos. We are talking about 9.2 million families including 20 million children. Their breadwinners work an average of 1.2 jobs, and 72% were born in the U.S.
Retiree health care benefits are being cut as costs escalate. More and more companies raise premiums and reduce coverage for former workers, despite in many cases, a company guaranteed medical benefits for life.
The IEA stated that demand for oil is rising faster than had recently been forecast, and this provided the fuel for crude to rise above $54 a barrel. The average cost of unleaded gas on a national basis in the U.S. is now $2 a gallon. The rising price of gasoline at the pump places a further squeeze on the pocketbooks of middle and lower-middle class working families. Retailers have already begun to feel the impact. Estimates for fourth quarter GDP will be reduced.
An eruption could occur at any time at Mt. St. Helens and without much warning. Temperatures are rising in the crater and magma is pushing out and up.
The dollar is at a one-month low against the yen.
Ten-year Treasury bond yields are back down to 4.09% and only about 11 basis points from the most recent low point. Gold also continues on a firm footing.
Brandon Roberts, co-author of Working Hard, Falling Short remarked "what we haven’t come to grips with is how large this number is" of working low-income families.
Sunday, October 10, 2004
10/10/04 Eliminating The Guessing
Normally, it is quite difficult to get a handle on the monthly nonfarm payroll numbers; however, that was not the case this past Friday. Greg Mankiw, head of the President's Council of Economic Advisors, alluded to the yearly revisions two days before they were released. In addition, the Challenger, Gray, & Christmas monthly announced hiring and layoffs were completely one-sided. John Challeneger stated, that based on the numbers, he believed the Friday report would be disappointing because there were hardly any hires. Lastly, the daily plant closings and layoffs have been escalating in recent weeks. In the end, it simply required piecing the information together and reaching a conclusion. Those caught flatfooted did not do their homework.
It is appropriate that we study the latest AP-Ipros Consumer Confidence survey that slipped 6 points in September to its lowest levels since mid-summer amid worries about high energy prices, uncertainty about the labor market, and anxiety about making major purchases like a new car or a home. The number of people who feel confident about job security and themselves and for people they know dropped from 48% to 40% in September, and the number who were more confident of their ability to invest in the future dropped from 51% to 42%.
Consumers cutback on their borrowing in August by the largest amount since the end of 1990.
Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center, talking about home heating oil prices stated "the bottom line is that because they are spending more to stay warm, they will have less discretionary income."
For the fourth time in five years the House Ethics Committee rebuked the Republican Majority Leader, Tom DeLay of Texas.
Thousands of full-time Albertson employees in the Dall-FW area are being reduced to part-time hours.
Congressman Steny Hoyer: "In 2004, the Republican Congress failed to enact a budget- the first time in 30 years that this has happened when the same party controls the House, Senate, and White House. Today you might call this Republican Congress the do less than nothing Congress."
According to SurePayroll, in California the average small business saw employment for the year 2004 up 5.7% but average salaries are down 5.9%.
Normally, it is quite difficult to get a handle on the monthly nonfarm payroll numbers; however, that was not the case this past Friday. Greg Mankiw, head of the President's Council of Economic Advisors, alluded to the yearly revisions two days before they were released. In addition, the Challenger, Gray, & Christmas monthly announced hiring and layoffs were completely one-sided. John Challeneger stated, that based on the numbers, he believed the Friday report would be disappointing because there were hardly any hires. Lastly, the daily plant closings and layoffs have been escalating in recent weeks. In the end, it simply required piecing the information together and reaching a conclusion. Those caught flatfooted did not do their homework.
It is appropriate that we study the latest AP-Ipros Consumer Confidence survey that slipped 6 points in September to its lowest levels since mid-summer amid worries about high energy prices, uncertainty about the labor market, and anxiety about making major purchases like a new car or a home. The number of people who feel confident about job security and themselves and for people they know dropped from 48% to 40% in September, and the number who were more confident of their ability to invest in the future dropped from 51% to 42%.
Consumers cutback on their borrowing in August by the largest amount since the end of 1990.
Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center, talking about home heating oil prices stated "the bottom line is that because they are spending more to stay warm, they will have less discretionary income."
For the fourth time in five years the House Ethics Committee rebuked the Republican Majority Leader, Tom DeLay of Texas.
Thousands of full-time Albertson employees in the Dall-FW area are being reduced to part-time hours.
Congressman Steny Hoyer: "In 2004, the Republican Congress failed to enact a budget- the first time in 30 years that this has happened when the same party controls the House, Senate, and White House. Today you might call this Republican Congress the do less than nothing Congress."
According to SurePayroll, in California the average small business saw employment for the year 2004 up 5.7% but average salaries are down 5.9%.
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