4/27/05 Uncertainties
According to new numbers from the Leading Indicator of National Employment (LINE), April employment growth slowed slightly, yet the number of manufacturers hiring for open positions increased. Hiring projections for May remain positive as HR professionals expect to increase employment headcount in May. LINE is a collaboration between the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) and the Rutgers School of Management and Labor Relations. This is the third straight month where employment growth has slowed, and the sixth month that the number of vacant positions has increased, primarily for nonexempt jobs. In addition, the LINE Recruiting Difficulty Index is at its highest level since July 2004. This reinforces the conclusion that while manufacturers are recruiting, many are having a difficult time finding skilled labor to fill open positions, creating an unmet demand for labor in the U.S. manufacturing sector. The March LINE Report indicated employment growth for March would be between January and February levels, which the BLS later confirmed. This month’s index suggests that job growth in April will be close to the levels achieved in March. It should be noted that HR professionals at over 500 manufacturing firms provide the data for the SHRM/Rutgers LINE Survey. The HR professionals are not making economic forecasts, but instead are reporting on plans already in place to increase hiring or layoffs during upcoming 30 days.
Confucius: “Maturity of mind is capacity to endure uncertainty.”
In March 2005, employers took 1,194 mass layoff actions, seasonally adjusted, as measured by new filings for unemployment benefits during the month, the BLS reported yesterday. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single establishment, and the number of workers involved totaled 130,848, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The number of layoff events rose by 66, and the number of associated initial claims increased by 13,164 from February. In the manufacturing sector, 371 mass layoff events were reported during March 2005, seasonally adjusted, resulting in 55,3777 initial claims, both figures higher than the previous month. From January through March 2005, the total number of events (seasonally adjusted) at 3,779, and initial claims (seasonally adjusted) at 399,522, were lower than in January 2004 (4,043 and 415,048, respectively). However, with the GDP growing by 4% or so in 2004, the net difference in initial claims resulting from mass layoffs according to the BLS was less than might have been expected. It is a further indication of the muted advances made in nonfarm payrolls.
Humphrey B. Neill: “When everybody thinks alike, everybody is likely wrong.”
Thucydides: “So little do men take in search for the truth; so readily do they accept whatever first comes to hand.”
U.S. April consumer confidence fell to a five-month low. The Conference Board’s index of consumer sentiment dropped to 97.7 in April, a third straight decline, from a revised 103 in March. The April decline was the biggest since last August. A year ago the index stood at 93. Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center stated “consumers do not anticipate an improvement in economic growth, nor in their incomes. They expect an even tighter job market over the summer months.” This statement was confirmed by the expectations index which dropped to 87.2, the lowest since July 2003, from the prior month’s reading of 93.7
Lactantius: “The first point of wisdom is to discern that which is false; the second is to know that which is true.”
Clarence Darrow: “To think is to differ.”
Sales of new homes in March climbed to a record. The Commerce Department reported that sales increased 12.2% to 1.431 million houses at an annual rate. However, the median price fell to $212,300 in March from $234,100 a month earlier.
The Michigan Business Activity Index, compiled by Comerica Bank, held steady at 108 in March. The index has been fluctuating in a narrow band around the 108 level since June 2004. Dana Johnson, chief economist at Comerica Bank, stated “the Michigan economy remains in a prolonged bottoming pattern, neither contracting nor expanding. With a number of its flagship companies in the early stages of cost cutting initiatives, key Michigan employers are fighting hard to stay competitive. These structural adjustments are likely to delay a turn up in activity for at least several more months.”
Tom Peters: “If you’re not confused, you’re not paying attention.”
According to a new report by Research and Markets, online advertising spending is projected to increase by 20.2% in 2005, reaching $11.3 billion by year’s end. That means Internet advertising will account for 4% of all U.S. advertising spending during the coming year, up from approximately 3.5% in 2004.
Anyone who reads this daily musing knows that I have been negative on IBM for a long time. It may have come as a surprise that I recently suggested purchasing shares at $72. I envisioned that, with their upcoming annual meeting, cost- cutting measures would be announced. Instead, yesterday, it was the same old IBM. They raised the quarterly dividend by 2 cents a share and authorized $5 billion in additional funds for use in its stock repurchase program. In 2004, IBM spent $7.1 billion on share repurchases and $1.2 billion on dividends. In 2003, they spent $4.3 billion on share repurchases and $1.1 billion on dividends. No mention was made of cost-cutting measures. Their use of cash flow does not meet with my requirements for owning stock. I suggest the sale of any shares recently purchased.
Crude prices remain above the $54 level. In all likelihood, inventories for the latest period will reflect a decline. However, that is simply a guess. As for the dynamics of the oil market, I defer to Simmons & Co. According to this firm, 70% of our oil is pumped from fields that exceed 30 years of age and 20% from 14 fields over 60 years in age. In sum, with projected increases in oil consumption in ASEAN nations and in others as well, the long-term prognosis is for looming supply shortages.
the volume of mortgage applications rose 5.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis in the week ended April 22 compared to the prior week, according to the latest data compiled by the According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, in the week ending April 22, applications for mortgages to purchase homes increased 3.3% on a week-to-week basis, while refinancings jumped 9.8%. Compared to this time last year, however, refinancing activity is down 14.6%, said the MBA's Michael Cevarr. In addition, refinancings accounted for 39.3% of total applications, up from the prior week's 38.0%, while adjustable-rate mortgages slipped to 34.7% from 35.4%.
According to the South China Morning Post, property prices in Shanghai, China's most expensive city, have begun to fall after the government introduced lending curbs and a capital gains tax. Average prices fell 15% to $914 per square meter last week.
Linda Ellerbee: “If men can run the world, why can't they stop wearing neckties? How intelligent is it to start the day by tying a little noose around your neck?”
Wednesday, April 27, 2005
Tuesday, April 26, 2005
Upside-down
4/26/05 Upside-down
The latest study from Kelley Blue Book Marketing Research is entitled New Vehicle Buyer Attitude Study on Financing. It finds that six out of ten people who are about to buy a new vehicle prefer a longer-term loan with low monthly payments when financing their next vehicle. Industry estimates are that nearly 30% of new-vehicle shoppers currently owe more on their vehicle than it is worth. Additionally, the average term for a consumer vehicle loan grew from 48 months in 2000 to 63 months in 2004. The study states that these consumers who are “upside-down” in their current vehicle loan could put themselves further into financial jeopardy by extending their new-vehicle loan past the average four-to-five year term, yet as a group they do not seem concerned about the ramification. Jack Nerad, editorial director of Kelley Blue Book’s kbb.com, stated “consumers who purchased vehicles with little or no money down and for a six or seven year term, will find they owe more than the car is worth when seeking out their next new vehicle.” I wonder whether the same observation could be made for the real estate buyer, especially the investment buyer and second-home vacation buyer. Purchases are frequently being made with little or no money down and for a six or seven year interest-only term. PMI Group, a large private mortgage insurance company located in Walnut Creek, Ca, recently completed a study that ranks large cities most likely to experience a downturn in housing prices in the next two years. Boston ranked number one, followed by San Jose/Santa Clara/Sunnyvale in second place and San Francisco/Oakland/Fremont in third. The PMI study looked only at the largest 50 metro areas and did not consider the percentage of investor-owned homes. Instead, it focused on the fundamental factors that influence housing prices -- the job market, net migration and the price of homes relative to incomes relative to historical standards for the area.
Yesterday, it was announced that Boeing had firm orders for 18 777’s and 14 787’s from Air Canada, an airline that emerged from bankruptcy protection in October. Deliveries of the new planes will begin in 2007 and extend through 2009. The bulk of the plane financing would be guaranteed by the Export Import Bank of the United States. Air Canada also recently secured $642 million in U.S. financing, and officials stated they had negotiated a “progressive payment schedule” so that Air Canada would not be forced to put all the cash for the deal up front. As for pricing, Robert Milton, chairman of Air Canada’s parent company, stated “I am confident no one has ever done better on a deal.” Boeing failed to release the discounted pricing information on the order. I feel confident the discount was at least 50%.
Due to rising oil prices, Germany’s six leading economic institutes cut their forecast for growth this year in half to about 0.7%.
BP, the world’s second-largest publicly traded oil company, reported a 29% increase in first quarter profits.
Japan’s consumer spending declined for a second month in March, and the economy lost jobs. Will the U.S. be soon to follow?
North Korea stated that it would regard any sanctions by the United Nations as an act of war.
I expect that April U.S. consumer confidence declined. It would be the third consecutive monthly drop. According to a survey by UBS and Gallup, investor optimism fell to 52 in April, the lowest reading in nearly two years. In May 2003 the reading was 42.
China’s 2004 current account surplus came to a record $59 billion (U.S.) or 4.2% of GDP.
Morgan Stanley’s Stephen L. Jen: “In contrast to Japan and Korea, China, in my view, does not have “too much” official reserves. China needs to accumulate official reserves to ‘pre-fund’ the private sector outflows expected in the years ahead. U.S. $1 trillion in official reserves in the coming years may not be unreasonable.”
Mark O’Byrne: “One billion is a lot of money. Let’s put one billion in perspective. It has nine digits in it and for purposes of illustration:
A billion seconds ago, it was 1959.
A billion minutes ago, Jesus was alive.
A billion hours ago, our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.
A billion dollars ago was only 8 hours and 20 minutes, at the rate Washington is spending today.”
According to Rydex AdvisorBenchmarking, their April Advisor Confidence Index (ACI) declined 7.32% to its lowest level since the indicator’s inception. The ACI dropped from 119.90 to 111.12. The current economic outlook declined by 9.53%, the six-month economic outlook by 8.27%, the 12-month economic outlook by 4.18%, and the stock market outlook by 6.91%. It should be noted that their Consumer Confidence Index had declined in February and March. Higher gas prices, increasing interest rates, sagging stock prices, and a muted labor market have dampened consumer confidence.
According to the California Association of Realtors, the median price for a home in March in the Silicon Valley was $733,000, up $28,000 from February and up from $625,000 in March 2004. According to Freddie Mac, thirty-year fixed mortgage rates averaged 5.93% during March 2005, compared with 5.45% in March 2004. Adjustable rate mortgage interest rates averaged 4.23% in March 2005 compared with 3.41% in March 2004.
In today’s trading, crude has slipped to $54.26 a barrel.
In a survey of 103 economists conducted by the National Association for Business Economics, 35% reported higher wages and salaries in this year’s first quarter, up from 28% in the fourth quarter of 2004. It was the highest reading since the second quarter of 2000. The remainder of those polled reported no change in wages and salaries in this year’s first three months.
The latest study from Kelley Blue Book Marketing Research is entitled New Vehicle Buyer Attitude Study on Financing. It finds that six out of ten people who are about to buy a new vehicle prefer a longer-term loan with low monthly payments when financing their next vehicle. Industry estimates are that nearly 30% of new-vehicle shoppers currently owe more on their vehicle than it is worth. Additionally, the average term for a consumer vehicle loan grew from 48 months in 2000 to 63 months in 2004. The study states that these consumers who are “upside-down” in their current vehicle loan could put themselves further into financial jeopardy by extending their new-vehicle loan past the average four-to-five year term, yet as a group they do not seem concerned about the ramification. Jack Nerad, editorial director of Kelley Blue Book’s kbb.com, stated “consumers who purchased vehicles with little or no money down and for a six or seven year term, will find they owe more than the car is worth when seeking out their next new vehicle.” I wonder whether the same observation could be made for the real estate buyer, especially the investment buyer and second-home vacation buyer. Purchases are frequently being made with little or no money down and for a six or seven year interest-only term. PMI Group, a large private mortgage insurance company located in Walnut Creek, Ca, recently completed a study that ranks large cities most likely to experience a downturn in housing prices in the next two years. Boston ranked number one, followed by San Jose/Santa Clara/Sunnyvale in second place and San Francisco/Oakland/Fremont in third. The PMI study looked only at the largest 50 metro areas and did not consider the percentage of investor-owned homes. Instead, it focused on the fundamental factors that influence housing prices -- the job market, net migration and the price of homes relative to incomes relative to historical standards for the area.
Yesterday, it was announced that Boeing had firm orders for 18 777’s and 14 787’s from Air Canada, an airline that emerged from bankruptcy protection in October. Deliveries of the new planes will begin in 2007 and extend through 2009. The bulk of the plane financing would be guaranteed by the Export Import Bank of the United States. Air Canada also recently secured $642 million in U.S. financing, and officials stated they had negotiated a “progressive payment schedule” so that Air Canada would not be forced to put all the cash for the deal up front. As for pricing, Robert Milton, chairman of Air Canada’s parent company, stated “I am confident no one has ever done better on a deal.” Boeing failed to release the discounted pricing information on the order. I feel confident the discount was at least 50%.
Due to rising oil prices, Germany’s six leading economic institutes cut their forecast for growth this year in half to about 0.7%.
BP, the world’s second-largest publicly traded oil company, reported a 29% increase in first quarter profits.
Japan’s consumer spending declined for a second month in March, and the economy lost jobs. Will the U.S. be soon to follow?
North Korea stated that it would regard any sanctions by the United Nations as an act of war.
I expect that April U.S. consumer confidence declined. It would be the third consecutive monthly drop. According to a survey by UBS and Gallup, investor optimism fell to 52 in April, the lowest reading in nearly two years. In May 2003 the reading was 42.
China’s 2004 current account surplus came to a record $59 billion (U.S.) or 4.2% of GDP.
Morgan Stanley’s Stephen L. Jen: “In contrast to Japan and Korea, China, in my view, does not have “too much” official reserves. China needs to accumulate official reserves to ‘pre-fund’ the private sector outflows expected in the years ahead. U.S. $1 trillion in official reserves in the coming years may not be unreasonable.”
Mark O’Byrne: “One billion is a lot of money. Let’s put one billion in perspective. It has nine digits in it and for purposes of illustration:
A billion seconds ago, it was 1959.
A billion minutes ago, Jesus was alive.
A billion hours ago, our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.
A billion dollars ago was only 8 hours and 20 minutes, at the rate Washington is spending today.”
According to Rydex AdvisorBenchmarking, their April Advisor Confidence Index (ACI) declined 7.32% to its lowest level since the indicator’s inception. The ACI dropped from 119.90 to 111.12. The current economic outlook declined by 9.53%, the six-month economic outlook by 8.27%, the 12-month economic outlook by 4.18%, and the stock market outlook by 6.91%. It should be noted that their Consumer Confidence Index had declined in February and March. Higher gas prices, increasing interest rates, sagging stock prices, and a muted labor market have dampened consumer confidence.
According to the California Association of Realtors, the median price for a home in March in the Silicon Valley was $733,000, up $28,000 from February and up from $625,000 in March 2004. According to Freddie Mac, thirty-year fixed mortgage rates averaged 5.93% during March 2005, compared with 5.45% in March 2004. Adjustable rate mortgage interest rates averaged 4.23% in March 2005 compared with 3.41% in March 2004.
In today’s trading, crude has slipped to $54.26 a barrel.
In a survey of 103 economists conducted by the National Association for Business Economics, 35% reported higher wages and salaries in this year’s first quarter, up from 28% in the fourth quarter of 2004. It was the highest reading since the second quarter of 2000. The remainder of those polled reported no change in wages and salaries in this year’s first three months.
Monday, April 25, 2005
Offense And Defense
4/25/05 Offense And Defense
Today marks the beginning of the last trading week in April. It’s no secret that historically the May through October period is the most challenging six months of each year. That means a good offense and a good defense especially will require adept risk management.
As we move into May and face another Fed rate hike, it is well to remember the impact rising interest rates do historically have on the overall construction and building industries. Since November 2001, 450,000 construction jobs and 400,000 mortgage brokers and real estate brokers have been added to nonfarm payrolls. I would hope that economists don’t figure on this sector to be a major engine for employment growth in the next few years. Is there another area of growth to replace this sector?
Goldman Sachs’ senior economist, Jan Hatzius, estimates that homeowners withdrew “mortgage equity” totally $640 billion in 2004. I hope economists are not figuring on consumers garnering this type of cash flow for expenditures in the coming months.
Valero is buying Premcor in a $8+ billion cash and stock deal. It will create the largest crude oil refiner in North America.
Hellman & Friedman will buy Doubleclick, the Internet ad company, for $1+ billion.
President Bush and Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia will meet today at the Crawford ranch. Even though the Saudis are pumping about 10 million b/p/d of crude, Bush may blame them for the high gas prices. It’s the Administration’s modus operandi to blame others for troubles in this world and to assume no responsibility.
Microsoft will demonstrate a wafer-thin PC using only flash memory and no hard drive.
Wei Benhua, vice director of the State Administration of Foreign exchange: “I made it clear to them: this is your problem. You should put your own house in order before you blame your neighbors. Wei blamed the U.S. trade deficit on “a flawed U.S. economic policy.” He stated “China has no time table for (currency) reform.”
John P. Hussman, Ph.D: “The current Market Climate – jointly unfavorable valuations and market action – has historically been characterized by negative average returns, but also by relatively high volatility, resulting in a very poor return/risk tradeoff. That also means, by definition, that the range of possible short-term outcomes is likely to be very wide. An unfavorable Market Climate emphatically does not translate into predictable short-term market losses. The small “predictable” component of returns in this Climate – the average daily loss – represents only a few basis points a day. That's a figure that is utterly, absolutely and completely swamped by daily volatility. The same is true for weekly, monthly, and to some extent even quarterly changes. Again, the predictable component of returns, though negative on average in this Climate, is overwhelmed by the volatility.”
As reported by the Financial Times, there are several reasons that voluntary imposition of a tax on its exports may be preferable to a China yuan revaluation, write Lawrence Lau, professor of economic development at Stanford University and Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel laureate in economics.
Business confidence in Germany, Europe's largest economy, fell to a 19-month low in April as the Ifo institute stated its index fell to 93.3 from 94 in March, the third monthly drop in a row. The Ifo says three consecutive declines signal slowing economic growth. The decrease was led by business expectations, with a sub-index dropping to 93.6, the lowest since June 2003, from 94.6.
With refinery problems in Louisiana, Texas, and Kansas, crude climbed to $56 a barrel and currently is trading at $55.75.
Each quarter, McDonald Financial conducts a national survey of randomly selected individuals with investable assets of $500,000 or more, and/or annual personal income of $150,000 or more. Its Affluent Consumer Confidence index fell to 50 this month from 55 in January, when the poll was last conducted.
Reverse mortgages were initiated in 1989. According to HUD’s data, only a few hundred seniors used the loans in 1997. HUD reported the number of reverse mortgages in 2004 doubled to more than 40,000 from the previous year. California, with nearly a third of the mortgages, ranked first, followed by Florida, Texas, and New York. Many seniors make use of reverse mortgages in order to take care of mounting medical bills.
Today marks the beginning of the last trading week in April. It’s no secret that historically the May through October period is the most challenging six months of each year. That means a good offense and a good defense especially will require adept risk management.
As we move into May and face another Fed rate hike, it is well to remember the impact rising interest rates do historically have on the overall construction and building industries. Since November 2001, 450,000 construction jobs and 400,000 mortgage brokers and real estate brokers have been added to nonfarm payrolls. I would hope that economists don’t figure on this sector to be a major engine for employment growth in the next few years. Is there another area of growth to replace this sector?
Goldman Sachs’ senior economist, Jan Hatzius, estimates that homeowners withdrew “mortgage equity” totally $640 billion in 2004. I hope economists are not figuring on consumers garnering this type of cash flow for expenditures in the coming months.
Valero is buying Premcor in a $8+ billion cash and stock deal. It will create the largest crude oil refiner in North America.
Hellman & Friedman will buy Doubleclick, the Internet ad company, for $1+ billion.
President Bush and Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia will meet today at the Crawford ranch. Even though the Saudis are pumping about 10 million b/p/d of crude, Bush may blame them for the high gas prices. It’s the Administration’s modus operandi to blame others for troubles in this world and to assume no responsibility.
Microsoft will demonstrate a wafer-thin PC using only flash memory and no hard drive.
Wei Benhua, vice director of the State Administration of Foreign exchange: “I made it clear to them: this is your problem. You should put your own house in order before you blame your neighbors. Wei blamed the U.S. trade deficit on “a flawed U.S. economic policy.” He stated “China has no time table for (currency) reform.”
John P. Hussman, Ph.D: “The current Market Climate – jointly unfavorable valuations and market action – has historically been characterized by negative average returns, but also by relatively high volatility, resulting in a very poor return/risk tradeoff. That also means, by definition, that the range of possible short-term outcomes is likely to be very wide. An unfavorable Market Climate emphatically does not translate into predictable short-term market losses. The small “predictable” component of returns in this Climate – the average daily loss – represents only a few basis points a day. That's a figure that is utterly, absolutely and completely swamped by daily volatility. The same is true for weekly, monthly, and to some extent even quarterly changes. Again, the predictable component of returns, though negative on average in this Climate, is overwhelmed by the volatility.”
As reported by the Financial Times, there are several reasons that voluntary imposition of a tax on its exports may be preferable to a China yuan revaluation, write Lawrence Lau, professor of economic development at Stanford University and Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel laureate in economics.
Business confidence in Germany, Europe's largest economy, fell to a 19-month low in April as the Ifo institute stated its index fell to 93.3 from 94 in March, the third monthly drop in a row. The Ifo says three consecutive declines signal slowing economic growth. The decrease was led by business expectations, with a sub-index dropping to 93.6, the lowest since June 2003, from 94.6.
With refinery problems in Louisiana, Texas, and Kansas, crude climbed to $56 a barrel and currently is trading at $55.75.
Each quarter, McDonald Financial conducts a national survey of randomly selected individuals with investable assets of $500,000 or more, and/or annual personal income of $150,000 or more. Its Affluent Consumer Confidence index fell to 50 this month from 55 in January, when the poll was last conducted.
Reverse mortgages were initiated in 1989. According to HUD’s data, only a few hundred seniors used the loans in 1997. HUD reported the number of reverse mortgages in 2004 doubled to more than 40,000 from the previous year. California, with nearly a third of the mortgages, ranked first, followed by Florida, Texas, and New York. Many seniors make use of reverse mortgages in order to take care of mounting medical bills.
Sunday, April 24, 2005
Networx
4/24/05 Networx
MCI reiterated what it expressed over two weeks ago -- namely that
it would deem a Qwest offer of $30 to be superior to the $23.10 provided under
the current Verizon-MCI merger agreement -- apparently concluding that the
difference was sufficient compensation for the increased risks associated with
completing the transaction and executing the business plan thereafter.
Verizon believes its pending transaction with MCI creates long-term, as
well as short-term, value for the shareholders of both companies by protecting
the integrity of MCI's business, ensuring that MCI's customers have continuing
access to the best communications services, retaining key employees, and
stabilizing MCI's financial position and prospects.
Under the terms of the Verizon-MCI definitive merger agreement, Verizon
may elect to require MCI to continue to finalize its proxy statement and to
organize a meeting of MCI's shareholders to consider the agreed transaction
with Verizon. Alternatively, Verizon may elect to terminate the agreement with
MCI. Upon such a termination, Verizon would be entitled to be paid by MCI a
$240 million break-up fee plus an expense reimbursement of up to $10 million,
and the same amounts would be payable following an MCI shareholders meeting if
the Verizon-MCI transaction were not approved and an agreement was signed with
Qwest.
What might influence Verizon to improve its current bid for MCI? The GSA will open up the bidding in May for a 10-year contract, starting in 2007, to run Networx, a communications services program for most federal agencies to utilize. It will combine local, long-distance, data, and wireless services. The contract could potentially be worth $10 to $20 billion. MCI has a global high-speed data network that would be desirable for Verizon. With that network, Verizon could win the Networx contract.
Mark Twain: “Don't part with your illusions. When they are gone you may still exist, but you have ceased to live.”
Through 25 months of fighting in Iraq, approximately 1570 members of our military have been killed in that foreign land. Close to 15,000 soldiers have been wounded. It’s no wonder that the majority of Americans do not approve of the Administration’s invasion of Iraq.
James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute: “We don’t have a democracy. We have a civil war in the making. We have a very volatile situation that can explode at any time. The rest of the Arab world hate us even more that they did, if you can imagine that.”
Red Skelton: “Congress: Bingo with billions.”
In less than two weeks, the BLS shall provide a report for April nonfarm payrolls. A rational perspective might be achieved by acknowledging that more jobs were available in April than the prior month. However, more frequently, these jobs do not pay a living wage as the cost of living has exceeded compensation due to rising inflationary costs, and this dilemma has been facing Main Street for the past months.
Fed Governor Donald Kohn: “Although the odds seem favorable for an orderly adjustment, the current imbalances are large and--importantly for gauging risks--unusual from a historical perspective. Thus, we have little experience to call on in judging when and how they will be corrected. In such circumstances, we cannot rule out sudden shifts in expectations, whether or not they are unreasonable to begin with, and asset prices may change suddenly. Investors may recognize the unsustainability of some flows and prices, but believe they can adjust in advance of the market--as apparently many thought they could in the tech-stock bubble--and their reactions when prices move could add to volatility. Moreover, we cannot rule out governments engaging in unwise policies--policies that might undermine confidence or might hinder market adjustments and associated changes in asset prices.”
The amount Americans owed on home equity lines of credit, according to the Federal Insurance Deposit Corporation, increased to approximately $491 billion at the end of 2004, up 42 percent from a year earlier, and more than triple the amount at the end of 2000. According to the National Association of Realtors, among first-time home buyers in 2004, the median down payment was 3%, half what it was in 2003.
MCI reiterated what it expressed over two weeks ago -- namely that
it would deem a Qwest offer of $30 to be superior to the $23.10 provided under
the current Verizon-MCI merger agreement -- apparently concluding that the
difference was sufficient compensation for the increased risks associated with
completing the transaction and executing the business plan thereafter.
Verizon believes its pending transaction with MCI creates long-term, as
well as short-term, value for the shareholders of both companies by protecting
the integrity of MCI's business, ensuring that MCI's customers have continuing
access to the best communications services, retaining key employees, and
stabilizing MCI's financial position and prospects.
Under the terms of the Verizon-MCI definitive merger agreement, Verizon
may elect to require MCI to continue to finalize its proxy statement and to
organize a meeting of MCI's shareholders to consider the agreed transaction
with Verizon. Alternatively, Verizon may elect to terminate the agreement with
MCI. Upon such a termination, Verizon would be entitled to be paid by MCI a
$240 million break-up fee plus an expense reimbursement of up to $10 million,
and the same amounts would be payable following an MCI shareholders meeting if
the Verizon-MCI transaction were not approved and an agreement was signed with
Qwest.
What might influence Verizon to improve its current bid for MCI? The GSA will open up the bidding in May for a 10-year contract, starting in 2007, to run Networx, a communications services program for most federal agencies to utilize. It will combine local, long-distance, data, and wireless services. The contract could potentially be worth $10 to $20 billion. MCI has a global high-speed data network that would be desirable for Verizon. With that network, Verizon could win the Networx contract.
Mark Twain: “Don't part with your illusions. When they are gone you may still exist, but you have ceased to live.”
Through 25 months of fighting in Iraq, approximately 1570 members of our military have been killed in that foreign land. Close to 15,000 soldiers have been wounded. It’s no wonder that the majority of Americans do not approve of the Administration’s invasion of Iraq.
James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute: “We don’t have a democracy. We have a civil war in the making. We have a very volatile situation that can explode at any time. The rest of the Arab world hate us even more that they did, if you can imagine that.”
Red Skelton: “Congress: Bingo with billions.”
In less than two weeks, the BLS shall provide a report for April nonfarm payrolls. A rational perspective might be achieved by acknowledging that more jobs were available in April than the prior month. However, more frequently, these jobs do not pay a living wage as the cost of living has exceeded compensation due to rising inflationary costs, and this dilemma has been facing Main Street for the past months.
Fed Governor Donald Kohn: “Although the odds seem favorable for an orderly adjustment, the current imbalances are large and--importantly for gauging risks--unusual from a historical perspective. Thus, we have little experience to call on in judging when and how they will be corrected. In such circumstances, we cannot rule out sudden shifts in expectations, whether or not they are unreasonable to begin with, and asset prices may change suddenly. Investors may recognize the unsustainability of some flows and prices, but believe they can adjust in advance of the market--as apparently many thought they could in the tech-stock bubble--and their reactions when prices move could add to volatility. Moreover, we cannot rule out governments engaging in unwise policies--policies that might undermine confidence or might hinder market adjustments and associated changes in asset prices.”
The amount Americans owed on home equity lines of credit, according to the Federal Insurance Deposit Corporation, increased to approximately $491 billion at the end of 2004, up 42 percent from a year earlier, and more than triple the amount at the end of 2000. According to the National Association of Realtors, among first-time home buyers in 2004, the median down payment was 3%, half what it was in 2003.
Saturday, April 23, 2005
Are Expectations Substantially Distorted?
4/23/05 Are Expectations Substantially Distorted?
Before I get to Fed Governor Donald Kohn’s remarks made yesterday, I would like to touch on a few matters. The order is of no significance.
Ryanair previously announced that it contracted to purchase 29 Boeing 737-800 planes for delivery between now and March 2006. We learned through a Ryanair proxy filing that the cost per plane is about $29 million versus the list price of between $61.5 million to $69.5 million on Boeing’s Web site. Once again, it is clear that Boeing will make the vast majority of its net income from its defense business rather than from the sale of commercial aircraft. I do not believe the company’s shareowners fully grasp the transformation in Boeing’s cash flow and the competitive pricing burdens weighing on its future.
Maytag may close its Hoover vacuum plant. Lear Corp. plans to close some plants this year and move production to other countries. The company has 280 facilities and employs 110,000 workers. Its best customers are GM and Ford.
China’s oil imports rose 23% in March. Not surprisingly, crude closed at $55.45 per barrel.
In June 2004, I suggested that Wal-Mart shareholders consider scaling back the size of their holdings. The stock was $10 higher than the present price. Now, the street seems to have lost its love for the company. I would now suggest the purchase of the shares. Day in and day out, Wal-Mart is the consumer’s best friend. Their everyday low pricing prolongs purchasing power.
The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is up 22% year-to-date.
In this year’s first quarter, Bank of America’s deposits grew by $11.4 billion, while liabilities jumped by $103 billion.
The U.S. purchases about one-third of China’s annual exports. We had better maintain our appetite for their goods because exports now represent 35% of China’s GDP versus 20% back in 1999.
Thanks to financial companies, builders, and energy enterprises, first quarter earnings for the S&P 500 will rise at least 12%. That’s about 50% higher than envisioned back in December. One should ask about the sustainability of that pace as interest rates rise and inflation takes its toll. The stock market looks forward and not backwards. You’re only as good as your last trade. In other words, can the S&P 500 repeat the first quarter? Google might but will the Bank of America? Dell might but will P&G? Until the answer comes into clearer focus, increased volatility will become a more frequent reality.
Talking about Google, the company unveiled a beta map site program. The link is
maps.google.com.
I have stated on many occasions that Donald Kohn would be my choice to replace Alan Greenspan when the latter retires at the end of this year. Yesterday, Kohn spoke at the 15th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference at The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College located in Annandale-on-Hudson, NY. I would like to provide a few quotes from his remarks:
“We should not hesitate to raise interest rates to contain inflation pressures just because it might set off a retrenchment in housing prices. Nor should we hesitate to raise rates because higher rates mean higher debt-servicing burdens for the current account, the fiscal authority, or households.”
“To the extent that current spending behavior is built on realistic expectations- in particular, for future short-term interest rates, the exchange rate, rates of return on capital investments in the United States relative to those abroad, and housing price appreciation- the transition should be relatively orderly: Asset prices should adjust gradually to changing developments, as should the spending patterns of households and firms. But if current expectations are badly distorted, then the way forward may not be so smooth. Eventually, reality always asserts itself over wishful thinking, and such realignments are sometimes abrupt, as illustrated by the collapse of the high-tech bubble a few years ago. In such circumstances, asset prices can adjust sharply, and private spending may also respond quickly, making it difficult for monetary and fiscal policy actions to provide a timely enough counterweight to keep the economy continuously on track. Are expectations substantially distorted? Because we seldom have direct and reliable readings, it is hard to say…Complacency would be ill-advised.”
Before I get to Fed Governor Donald Kohn’s remarks made yesterday, I would like to touch on a few matters. The order is of no significance.
Ryanair previously announced that it contracted to purchase 29 Boeing 737-800 planes for delivery between now and March 2006. We learned through a Ryanair proxy filing that the cost per plane is about $29 million versus the list price of between $61.5 million to $69.5 million on Boeing’s Web site. Once again, it is clear that Boeing will make the vast majority of its net income from its defense business rather than from the sale of commercial aircraft. I do not believe the company’s shareowners fully grasp the transformation in Boeing’s cash flow and the competitive pricing burdens weighing on its future.
Maytag may close its Hoover vacuum plant. Lear Corp. plans to close some plants this year and move production to other countries. The company has 280 facilities and employs 110,000 workers. Its best customers are GM and Ford.
China’s oil imports rose 23% in March. Not surprisingly, crude closed at $55.45 per barrel.
In June 2004, I suggested that Wal-Mart shareholders consider scaling back the size of their holdings. The stock was $10 higher than the present price. Now, the street seems to have lost its love for the company. I would now suggest the purchase of the shares. Day in and day out, Wal-Mart is the consumer’s best friend. Their everyday low pricing prolongs purchasing power.
The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is up 22% year-to-date.
In this year’s first quarter, Bank of America’s deposits grew by $11.4 billion, while liabilities jumped by $103 billion.
The U.S. purchases about one-third of China’s annual exports. We had better maintain our appetite for their goods because exports now represent 35% of China’s GDP versus 20% back in 1999.
Thanks to financial companies, builders, and energy enterprises, first quarter earnings for the S&P 500 will rise at least 12%. That’s about 50% higher than envisioned back in December. One should ask about the sustainability of that pace as interest rates rise and inflation takes its toll. The stock market looks forward and not backwards. You’re only as good as your last trade. In other words, can the S&P 500 repeat the first quarter? Google might but will the Bank of America? Dell might but will P&G? Until the answer comes into clearer focus, increased volatility will become a more frequent reality.
Talking about Google, the company unveiled a beta map site program. The link is
maps.google.com.
I have stated on many occasions that Donald Kohn would be my choice to replace Alan Greenspan when the latter retires at the end of this year. Yesterday, Kohn spoke at the 15th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference at The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College located in Annandale-on-Hudson, NY. I would like to provide a few quotes from his remarks:
“We should not hesitate to raise interest rates to contain inflation pressures just because it might set off a retrenchment in housing prices. Nor should we hesitate to raise rates because higher rates mean higher debt-servicing burdens for the current account, the fiscal authority, or households.”
“To the extent that current spending behavior is built on realistic expectations- in particular, for future short-term interest rates, the exchange rate, rates of return on capital investments in the United States relative to those abroad, and housing price appreciation- the transition should be relatively orderly: Asset prices should adjust gradually to changing developments, as should the spending patterns of households and firms. But if current expectations are badly distorted, then the way forward may not be so smooth. Eventually, reality always asserts itself over wishful thinking, and such realignments are sometimes abrupt, as illustrated by the collapse of the high-tech bubble a few years ago. In such circumstances, asset prices can adjust sharply, and private spending may also respond quickly, making it difficult for monetary and fiscal policy actions to provide a timely enough counterweight to keep the economy continuously on track. Are expectations substantially distorted? Because we seldom have direct and reliable readings, it is hard to say…Complacency would be ill-advised.”
Friday, April 22, 2005
Yesterday
4/22/05 Yesterday
There is a reason for old adages. They occur and recur. Yesterday was a perfect example of the market accommodating the fewest number of people at any one time. There was something for everyone to cheer about and, at the same time, something for everyone that could create worry. The prior day’s trading was a huge disappointment for the bulls. Yesterday’s 206 point gain in the Dow, 48 point Nasdaq advance, and 22 point jump in the S&P 500 generated joy in Mudville. It created hope for the bulls and hopefully improved liquidity in the overall equity markets. It also offered an opportunity to sell some weak sisters on strength.
The BLS reported that median weekly earnings of the nation’s 100.9 million full-time wage and salary workers were $653 in the first quarter of 2005. This was 3% higher than a year earlier, compared with a gain of 3% in the CPI over the same period. In other words, wage gains were devoured by inflation. As for staffing growth, we should remember that Manpower reported employment gains of 4.1% in January, 3% in February, 0.5% in March, and saw no pick up in April. Such a trend denotes a hesitancy to hire, and that does not provide comfort to one’s confidence levels going forward.
The Conference Board reported that its Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined 0.4% in March. Only two of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in March. The coincident index, an index of current economic activity, rose 0.2% in March after rising 0.1% in February and declining 0.5% in January. This index has been increasing at a 2.5% annual rate since April 2003. On the other hand, the Lagging Index declined 0.1% in March, following a 0.3% increase in February and a 1% increase in January. Overall, in this year’s first quarter, growth was described by the Conference Board’s chief economist as “choppy” and “moderate.” One might note that the 0.4% decline in the March LEI was the largest in 2 years.
Yesterday, equity buyers preferred to focus on the Philly Fed survey where current manufacturing conditions jumped from March’s 11.4 reading to April’s 25.3. March’s reading was the lowest in 20 months. The new orders index rose seven points, and the shipments index rose almost 15 points. Indicators for unfilled orders and delivery times changed little from March. The current inventory index rose nine points and is now positive for the first time in six months. The current employment index increased seven points to its highest reading in three months, and the current workweek index increased 18 points to its highest reading in 14 months. There was bad news however. The prices paid diffusion index rose 21 points, its highest reading in three months. Nearly 56% of firms reported higher prices for inputs this month, compared with 36% in March. Only 5% of the manufacturers reported decreases in their input prices. Higher prices for final manufactured goods were also widespread this month. Thirty-three percent of firms reported higher prices for their goods, and the prices received index increased 13 points to its highest reading in six months. In addition, the index for future activity fell slightly this month with the future new orders index falling by one point and the future shipments index declining about eight points. Overall, the Philly Fed index reflected a rebound in growth from a weak March accompanied by a sharp pickup in inflation. For me, that’s not a great recipe for economic success. The bulls maintain, however, that prices are going up because of continued purchasing pressures. I guess that means inflation is good for the economy. I know it’s not good for the people on Main Street and their purchasing power.
Crude is back up to $54.30 a barrel. ConocoPhillips’ refinery in Louisiana will be down for one more week.
Costco’s forecast for its third quarter earnings trailed forecasts.
Google’s earnings exceeded expectations by 20 cents per share and sales exceeded analyst forecasts by $62 million. The company is operating on all cylinders. So is the stock.
Qwest raised its cash and stock offer for MCI to $30 per share. Needy buyers often create desperate pricing.
Berkshire Hathaway has taken a significant ownership interest in BUD. The latter may be a household name but its beer sales have exhibited lackluster growth of late. In that respect, it’s akin to Coke.
China recorded a capital account surplus of 110.66 billion U.S. dollars last year, up 110 pct from the previous year, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said in a statement on its website.
Eastman Kodak Company EK reported a first-quarter net loss of 50 cents per share, on a revenue decrease of 3%. The loss reflects charges for focused cost reductions, while the company's sales reflect a decline in traditional products and services of 18% and an increase in the digital portfolio of 23%.
Kodak's reported net loss for the quarter included a non-operational charge that reduced earnings, on a net basis, by 53 cents per share, reflecting focused cost reductions announced in January 2004. By removing the cost-reduction charge from the calculation of earnings, Kodak had operational earnings per share of 3 cents in the first quarter. The savings generated by the prior focused cost reduction activities were offset by lower sales of traditional products, rising raw material prices, and costs associated with NexPress Solutions, which Kodak acquired in May 2004.
The company also reiterated its per-share operational earnings guidance of $2.60 to $2.90 for all of 2005.
A chemical added to processed meat products is responsible for a 6700% increased risk in pancreatic cancer, says author and nutritionist Mike Adams. The conclusion is based in part on research conducted at the University of Hawaii that reveals a 67-fold increased risk of pancreatic cancer in people who consume large quantities of hot dogs, sausage and other processed meats, versus those who consume little or no processed meat. The study was led by Dr.Ute Nothlings and was announced at the annual gathering of the American
Association for Cancer Research.
There is a reason for old adages. They occur and recur. Yesterday was a perfect example of the market accommodating the fewest number of people at any one time. There was something for everyone to cheer about and, at the same time, something for everyone that could create worry. The prior day’s trading was a huge disappointment for the bulls. Yesterday’s 206 point gain in the Dow, 48 point Nasdaq advance, and 22 point jump in the S&P 500 generated joy in Mudville. It created hope for the bulls and hopefully improved liquidity in the overall equity markets. It also offered an opportunity to sell some weak sisters on strength.
The BLS reported that median weekly earnings of the nation’s 100.9 million full-time wage and salary workers were $653 in the first quarter of 2005. This was 3% higher than a year earlier, compared with a gain of 3% in the CPI over the same period. In other words, wage gains were devoured by inflation. As for staffing growth, we should remember that Manpower reported employment gains of 4.1% in January, 3% in February, 0.5% in March, and saw no pick up in April. Such a trend denotes a hesitancy to hire, and that does not provide comfort to one’s confidence levels going forward.
The Conference Board reported that its Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined 0.4% in March. Only two of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in March. The coincident index, an index of current economic activity, rose 0.2% in March after rising 0.1% in February and declining 0.5% in January. This index has been increasing at a 2.5% annual rate since April 2003. On the other hand, the Lagging Index declined 0.1% in March, following a 0.3% increase in February and a 1% increase in January. Overall, in this year’s first quarter, growth was described by the Conference Board’s chief economist as “choppy” and “moderate.” One might note that the 0.4% decline in the March LEI was the largest in 2 years.
Yesterday, equity buyers preferred to focus on the Philly Fed survey where current manufacturing conditions jumped from March’s 11.4 reading to April’s 25.3. March’s reading was the lowest in 20 months. The new orders index rose seven points, and the shipments index rose almost 15 points. Indicators for unfilled orders and delivery times changed little from March. The current inventory index rose nine points and is now positive for the first time in six months. The current employment index increased seven points to its highest reading in three months, and the current workweek index increased 18 points to its highest reading in 14 months. There was bad news however. The prices paid diffusion index rose 21 points, its highest reading in three months. Nearly 56% of firms reported higher prices for inputs this month, compared with 36% in March. Only 5% of the manufacturers reported decreases in their input prices. Higher prices for final manufactured goods were also widespread this month. Thirty-three percent of firms reported higher prices for their goods, and the prices received index increased 13 points to its highest reading in six months. In addition, the index for future activity fell slightly this month with the future new orders index falling by one point and the future shipments index declining about eight points. Overall, the Philly Fed index reflected a rebound in growth from a weak March accompanied by a sharp pickup in inflation. For me, that’s not a great recipe for economic success. The bulls maintain, however, that prices are going up because of continued purchasing pressures. I guess that means inflation is good for the economy. I know it’s not good for the people on Main Street and their purchasing power.
Crude is back up to $54.30 a barrel. ConocoPhillips’ refinery in Louisiana will be down for one more week.
Costco’s forecast for its third quarter earnings trailed forecasts.
Google’s earnings exceeded expectations by 20 cents per share and sales exceeded analyst forecasts by $62 million. The company is operating on all cylinders. So is the stock.
Qwest raised its cash and stock offer for MCI to $30 per share. Needy buyers often create desperate pricing.
Berkshire Hathaway has taken a significant ownership interest in BUD. The latter may be a household name but its beer sales have exhibited lackluster growth of late. In that respect, it’s akin to Coke.
China recorded a capital account surplus of 110.66 billion U.S. dollars last year, up 110 pct from the previous year, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said in a statement on its website.
Eastman Kodak Company EK reported a first-quarter net loss of 50 cents per share, on a revenue decrease of 3%. The loss reflects charges for focused cost reductions, while the company's sales reflect a decline in traditional products and services of 18% and an increase in the digital portfolio of 23%.
Kodak's reported net loss for the quarter included a non-operational charge that reduced earnings, on a net basis, by 53 cents per share, reflecting focused cost reductions announced in January 2004. By removing the cost-reduction charge from the calculation of earnings, Kodak had operational earnings per share of 3 cents in the first quarter. The savings generated by the prior focused cost reduction activities were offset by lower sales of traditional products, rising raw material prices, and costs associated with NexPress Solutions, which Kodak acquired in May 2004.
The company also reiterated its per-share operational earnings guidance of $2.60 to $2.90 for all of 2005.
A chemical added to processed meat products is responsible for a 6700% increased risk in pancreatic cancer, says author and nutritionist Mike Adams. The conclusion is based in part on research conducted at the University of Hawaii that reveals a 67-fold increased risk of pancreatic cancer in people who consume large quantities of hot dogs, sausage and other processed meats, versus those who consume little or no processed meat. The study was led by Dr.Ute Nothlings and was announced at the annual gathering of the American
Association for Cancer Research.
Thursday, April 21, 2005
The World According To The Fed
4/21/05 The World According To The Fed
Roger Ferguson, Fed Vice Chairman: “In 1985, our foreign assets were about equal to our foreign liabilities, so that our net international investment position was roughly zero. By 1995, our investment position had deteriorated to negative 4 percent of GDP, and by 2004, we estimate this negative position to have reached about one-fourth of GDP. If current account deficits continue to boost the negative international investment position, eventually the cost of servicing that position, which so far has been quite modest, would rise to an unsustainable level. Obviously, the current account would have to adjust to ensure that excessive debt burdens are not maintained…My sense is that implications of current account adjustment for U.S. economic growth and inflation will most likely be benign.” All of a sudden, unsustainable equates with benign.
The latest Fed Beige Book: “Upward price pressures have strengthened.” What a benign statement! According to the latest BLS statistics, real average weekly earnings fell by 0.3% from February 2005 to March 2005. The 0.6% rise in the CPI was the culprit.
Jared Bernstein, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute: “Real wages continue to deteriorate for many U.S. workers. This marks the 11th consecutive month wherein annual wage growth failed to outpace inflation.”
Charley Reese, columnist for King Features Syndicate: “The American people are being screwed, blued and tattooed by the politicians in Washington, and most don’t even know it. They are suffocated by the incessant amount of fertilizer poured on them by the overpaid, overperked, overpensioned politicians who have voted themselves into the top 5 percent of income. Public servants, my foot.”
The GM plant in Linden, NJ closed yesterday. Ford’s plant in Edison, NJ closed in late February. They were the last two auto assembly lines in NJ. Ford will cut production in the second quarter.
JDS Uniphase will close 2 U.S. manufacturing facilities, ship those operations to China, and cut more than 700 jobs. Guilford Mills is closing its Greensboro, NC plant and cutting 101 employees as well as cutting 130 from its workforce at its Fuquay-Varina plant in South Wake County. Qwest will layoff 144 workers in Seattle.
Motorola had a bright quarter and lifted its second quarter outlook. I continue to believe the company offers exceptional long-term potential. Nokia’s profit was up 18% and the company raised the mobile market outlook to 15% growth from 10% for all of 2005. On the other hand, Qualcomm lowered its forecast for sales and profit from operations for the entire year.
According to John S. Herold Inc, employment by the largest U.S.-based oil and natural gas producers declined 4.1% in 2004, the 20th annual decline in the past 23 years. This statistic differs sharply from the 50% rise in crude over the past 12 months.
U.S. crude oil supplies dropped for the first time in 10 weeks and gasoline inventory declined. June crude is trading around $53.50 a barrel. As a matter of interest, in 1967, one U.S. dollar purchased 4 gallons of gas.
Ebay’s profits rose 28% and quarterly sales topped $1 billion for the first time.
The CRB Index rose yesterday to the 307 level. Inflation remains alive and well.
UK retail sales fell 0.1% from the previous month.
IBM hit a high of about $135 in 2000. Since early February of this year, the stock has once again been in a downdraft. For the past two weeks, that decline has accelerated. Last night the stock closed at 72, back to the price set 3 years ago. Management has related the difficulty created by a longer sales cycle. Last night Cramer recommended switching from IBM to EMC. That’s a nonsensical thought. Going from a services/consulting company to a storage outfit is mad. I don’t know when IBM will be able to close deals on a quicker note. I do know they have plenty of room to cut costs. It’s one thing to run from IBM at 95. It’s quite different to be a seller at 72. As for EMC, it might make an excellent takeover target.
China’s CPI rose 2.8% in this year’s first quarter. However, upstream products were priced more than 10% higher in the quarter. A major problem could be the severe draught in some parts of south China and southwest China this spring. We will have to see what impact it will have on farmers and their summer harvest.
Macquarie Bank FX Research: “There is no inflation in the US if you don't drive a car or need to pay to deliver or receive goods, particularly if you don't eat or have holidays. And of course, everyone is naked, because what you spend on clothes isn't counted either.”
McDonald’s CEO reported that “in March, McDonald's U.S. business marked its 24th consecutive month of positive comparable sales - a feat not achieved in nearly 25 years. I am encouraged by the ongoing strength and resilience of our U.S. business. Revenues increased 6% during the quarter and strong comparable sales helped offset higher commodity costs.”
According to Bankrate, mortgage rates fell to the lowest point in two months, and have now dropped four weeks in a row. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped from 5.95 percent to 5.86 percent. The 30-year fixed rate mortgages in this week's survey had an average of 0.3 discount and origination points.
GM stated “there is no issue” over the company’s ability to repay $300 billion in debt.
In the largest one-week decline since December 2001, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits plunged by 36,000. One should keep in mind that there were seasonal adjustments with the early Easter holiday. I continue to report on the growing number of daily plant closings and employee layoffs.
Roger Ferguson, Fed Vice Chairman: “In 1985, our foreign assets were about equal to our foreign liabilities, so that our net international investment position was roughly zero. By 1995, our investment position had deteriorated to negative 4 percent of GDP, and by 2004, we estimate this negative position to have reached about one-fourth of GDP. If current account deficits continue to boost the negative international investment position, eventually the cost of servicing that position, which so far has been quite modest, would rise to an unsustainable level. Obviously, the current account would have to adjust to ensure that excessive debt burdens are not maintained…My sense is that implications of current account adjustment for U.S. economic growth and inflation will most likely be benign.” All of a sudden, unsustainable equates with benign.
The latest Fed Beige Book: “Upward price pressures have strengthened.” What a benign statement! According to the latest BLS statistics, real average weekly earnings fell by 0.3% from February 2005 to March 2005. The 0.6% rise in the CPI was the culprit.
Jared Bernstein, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute: “Real wages continue to deteriorate for many U.S. workers. This marks the 11th consecutive month wherein annual wage growth failed to outpace inflation.”
Charley Reese, columnist for King Features Syndicate: “The American people are being screwed, blued and tattooed by the politicians in Washington, and most don’t even know it. They are suffocated by the incessant amount of fertilizer poured on them by the overpaid, overperked, overpensioned politicians who have voted themselves into the top 5 percent of income. Public servants, my foot.”
The GM plant in Linden, NJ closed yesterday. Ford’s plant in Edison, NJ closed in late February. They were the last two auto assembly lines in NJ. Ford will cut production in the second quarter.
JDS Uniphase will close 2 U.S. manufacturing facilities, ship those operations to China, and cut more than 700 jobs. Guilford Mills is closing its Greensboro, NC plant and cutting 101 employees as well as cutting 130 from its workforce at its Fuquay-Varina plant in South Wake County. Qwest will layoff 144 workers in Seattle.
Motorola had a bright quarter and lifted its second quarter outlook. I continue to believe the company offers exceptional long-term potential. Nokia’s profit was up 18% and the company raised the mobile market outlook to 15% growth from 10% for all of 2005. On the other hand, Qualcomm lowered its forecast for sales and profit from operations for the entire year.
According to John S. Herold Inc, employment by the largest U.S.-based oil and natural gas producers declined 4.1% in 2004, the 20th annual decline in the past 23 years. This statistic differs sharply from the 50% rise in crude over the past 12 months.
U.S. crude oil supplies dropped for the first time in 10 weeks and gasoline inventory declined. June crude is trading around $53.50 a barrel. As a matter of interest, in 1967, one U.S. dollar purchased 4 gallons of gas.
Ebay’s profits rose 28% and quarterly sales topped $1 billion for the first time.
The CRB Index rose yesterday to the 307 level. Inflation remains alive and well.
UK retail sales fell 0.1% from the previous month.
IBM hit a high of about $135 in 2000. Since early February of this year, the stock has once again been in a downdraft. For the past two weeks, that decline has accelerated. Last night the stock closed at 72, back to the price set 3 years ago. Management has related the difficulty created by a longer sales cycle. Last night Cramer recommended switching from IBM to EMC. That’s a nonsensical thought. Going from a services/consulting company to a storage outfit is mad. I don’t know when IBM will be able to close deals on a quicker note. I do know they have plenty of room to cut costs. It’s one thing to run from IBM at 95. It’s quite different to be a seller at 72. As for EMC, it might make an excellent takeover target.
China’s CPI rose 2.8% in this year’s first quarter. However, upstream products were priced more than 10% higher in the quarter. A major problem could be the severe draught in some parts of south China and southwest China this spring. We will have to see what impact it will have on farmers and their summer harvest.
Macquarie Bank FX Research: “There is no inflation in the US if you don't drive a car or need to pay to deliver or receive goods, particularly if you don't eat or have holidays. And of course, everyone is naked, because what you spend on clothes isn't counted either.”
McDonald’s CEO reported that “in March, McDonald's U.S. business marked its 24th consecutive month of positive comparable sales - a feat not achieved in nearly 25 years. I am encouraged by the ongoing strength and resilience of our U.S. business. Revenues increased 6% during the quarter and strong comparable sales helped offset higher commodity costs.”
According to Bankrate, mortgage rates fell to the lowest point in two months, and have now dropped four weeks in a row. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped from 5.95 percent to 5.86 percent. The 30-year fixed rate mortgages in this week's survey had an average of 0.3 discount and origination points.
GM stated “there is no issue” over the company’s ability to repay $300 billion in debt.
In the largest one-week decline since December 2001, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits plunged by 36,000. One should keep in mind that there were seasonal adjustments with the early Easter holiday. I continue to report on the growing number of daily plant closings and employee layoffs.
Wednesday, April 20, 2005
The Great Divide
4/20/05 The Great Divide
Housing has been bolstering our economy for at least the past 3 years. Housing starts plummeted 17.6% in March, the largest decline since Jan. 1991. Building permits fell 4%, single family permits fell 5.4%, apartment starts fell 31.6%. In the week ended April 15, mortgage applications declined 1.6%.
For the second quarter, Ford expects to break even or lose 15 cents a share. Meanwhile, GM had the worst quarterly loss in 13 years. The real disappointment was the slim 8.4% increase in first quarter China sales. That is not discounting the problems in North America and the anticipated $5.6 billion in health care costs in 2005.
It was reported that U.S. core PPI only rose by 0.1% in March. The overall PPI is up 4.9% in the past 12 months, and that’s not tame. The real clunker in March was the fact that intermediate energy goods increased 3.7%, and that crude energy goods prices increased 5.5% in the month. Today, we find crude trading at $52.75 a barrel and heating oil at $1.50 a gallon. The crude/gold ratio stands at about 8.24 to 1. Dennis Gartman told his readers he expects the ratio to climb to 15 to 1.
Speaking of Dennis Gartman, he expressed in his Gartman Letter today that “we are out of the dollar, and we suspect that we shall remain out of the dollar for some very long while into the future.”
The March SEMI book-to-bill orders were down 26% in March from one year ago. However, that did not prevent Intel from having a net income increase of 255 and a revenue increase of 17% in the first quarter. In addition, the company boosted its forecast for 2005 gross margins. Intel is experiencing “good growth in emerging markets” and the laptop market.
Yahoo reported that its latest quarterly revenue topped $1 billion for the first time. The company’s net more than doubled with internet advertising bolstering results.
U.S. Air and America West are in advanced merger talks.
Fitch lowered its rating on Berkshire Hathaway’s bonds from stable to negative.
According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, 26 states face fiscal budget gaps.
PricewaterhouseCoopers' 'Trendsetter Barometer' interviewed CEOs of
360 privately held product and service companies identified in the media
as being among the fastest growing U.S. businesses over the last five years.
The surveyed companies range in size from approximately $5 million to
$150 million in revenue/sales. Driven by the need to offload complex regulatory compliance and free up capital, fast-growth CEOs have turned to
outsourcing of human resource functions -- and achieved high satisfaction for
both quality and savings.
"The housing bubble has been created more by the business press than reality," said Sam Zell, chairman of Equity Office Properties Trust and Equity Group Investments LLC. "You can't have a crash without oversupply."
U.S. March CPI increased 0.6%, with the core rate jumping 0.4%, the biggest increase since August 2002. Naturally, Fed members believe inflation is not a problem.
Starwood Executive Chairman Barry Sternlicht: “You can sell anything you can get your hands on in Las Vegas, but nobody knows what it costs to build there because contractors are stretched so thin. It’s wacko out there but it’s fun, as long as you get a chair when the music stops.” When they raid the whorehouse, they take all the girls!
Housing has been bolstering our economy for at least the past 3 years. Housing starts plummeted 17.6% in March, the largest decline since Jan. 1991. Building permits fell 4%, single family permits fell 5.4%, apartment starts fell 31.6%. In the week ended April 15, mortgage applications declined 1.6%.
For the second quarter, Ford expects to break even or lose 15 cents a share. Meanwhile, GM had the worst quarterly loss in 13 years. The real disappointment was the slim 8.4% increase in first quarter China sales. That is not discounting the problems in North America and the anticipated $5.6 billion in health care costs in 2005.
It was reported that U.S. core PPI only rose by 0.1% in March. The overall PPI is up 4.9% in the past 12 months, and that’s not tame. The real clunker in March was the fact that intermediate energy goods increased 3.7%, and that crude energy goods prices increased 5.5% in the month. Today, we find crude trading at $52.75 a barrel and heating oil at $1.50 a gallon. The crude/gold ratio stands at about 8.24 to 1. Dennis Gartman told his readers he expects the ratio to climb to 15 to 1.
Speaking of Dennis Gartman, he expressed in his Gartman Letter today that “we are out of the dollar, and we suspect that we shall remain out of the dollar for some very long while into the future.”
The March SEMI book-to-bill orders were down 26% in March from one year ago. However, that did not prevent Intel from having a net income increase of 255 and a revenue increase of 17% in the first quarter. In addition, the company boosted its forecast for 2005 gross margins. Intel is experiencing “good growth in emerging markets” and the laptop market.
Yahoo reported that its latest quarterly revenue topped $1 billion for the first time. The company’s net more than doubled with internet advertising bolstering results.
U.S. Air and America West are in advanced merger talks.
Fitch lowered its rating on Berkshire Hathaway’s bonds from stable to negative.
According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, 26 states face fiscal budget gaps.
PricewaterhouseCoopers' 'Trendsetter Barometer' interviewed CEOs of
360 privately held product and service companies identified in the media
as being among the fastest growing U.S. businesses over the last five years.
The surveyed companies range in size from approximately $5 million to
$150 million in revenue/sales. Driven by the need to offload complex regulatory compliance and free up capital, fast-growth CEOs have turned to
outsourcing of human resource functions -- and achieved high satisfaction for
both quality and savings.
"The housing bubble has been created more by the business press than reality," said Sam Zell, chairman of Equity Office Properties Trust and Equity Group Investments LLC. "You can't have a crash without oversupply."
U.S. March CPI increased 0.6%, with the core rate jumping 0.4%, the biggest increase since August 2002. Naturally, Fed members believe inflation is not a problem.
Starwood Executive Chairman Barry Sternlicht: “You can sell anything you can get your hands on in Las Vegas, but nobody knows what it costs to build there because contractors are stretched so thin. It’s wacko out there but it’s fun, as long as you get a chair when the music stops.” When they raid the whorehouse, they take all the girls!
Tuesday, April 19, 2005
Credit Derivatives, Risk, And Sentiment
4/19/05 Credit Derivatives, Risk, And Sentiment
According to a recent survey by ISDA, the credit derivatives market was worth $8.4 trillion at the end of 2004, 123% higher than the year before and about 45 times bigger than in 1997. One area of concern is collateralized debt obligations which are complex pools of credit risk bundled frequently into highly leveraged packages. The Fed recently stated it was concerned that up to 1 in 10 investors who buy CDOs may not fully understand the risks. In all likelihood, the credit derivatives market will exceed the size of our country’s GDP in 2005. If there a hiccup in CDOs should occur, the consequences could be profound. Such risk, in my view, is clearly not built into today’s equity and credit markets. It should be noted a growing number of deals remain unconfirmed between counterparties months after their agreement by traders. Not surprisingly, volatility as measured by the VIX index is on the rise.
Gary Shilling: “Markets remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent.”
Mark Twain once said that a cat that sits on a hot stove will never sit on a hot stove again, nor on a cold one either, because they all look alike. Is there any correlation between a hot stove or a cold stove and the appearance of market risk in today’s investing environment?
According to the latest AAI I statistics, 42% of investor sentiment was bearish, 42% was neutral, and 17% was bullish. The bullish camp was the smallest in 13 years. Meanwhile, Market Vane’s bullish consensus increased last week to 64% from 63%. Obviously, statistics can have a large variance, and that’s why it’s necessary to do your homework.
The ARMS Index was developed by Richard Arms 38 years ago. It is a volume-based breath indicator with analysis of advancing/declining issues in relationship to their corresponding volume. If the ratio is 1, then there is a balance, above 1 more volume in declining issues, and below 1 more volume in advancing issues. As of the market close on Friday, the 10-day moving average was 1.195, and that was a fairly neutral reading in spite of the sharp decline in the market indices last week.
We are smack in the middle of earnings season for this year’s first quarter. It is well to remember that corporate profits are approaching $1.1 trillion or 9% of GDP. The 25-year average is about 7%. Consequently, it is wise to lower our expectations for earnings going forward.
In January, MMM predicted sales growth of 5 to 7%. For the first quarter, sales rose 1.8%. Profits in health care rose 18%, and this division carried the day for the remainder of the company.
Buick’s sales were down 22% in this year’s first quarter and Pontiac’s sales were down 17%. Which brand will be “fired?”
The March Spherion Employment Report showed that 53% of 3,200 employed adults surveyed in Ohio feel there are fewer jobs available, up 10 percentage points from February. In addition, the percentage of Ohio workers who believe the economy is getting weaker or staying the same was 76%, an increase of 7 percentage points from February. Where is Pastor Parsley now? Breaking bread with Karl Rove and Tom DeLay?
Kerr-McGee announced it is commencing a modified “Dutch Auction” tender offer for up to $4 billion of its common stock. The offer will expire on May 18 unless extended. Shareholders will have the opportunity to tender some or all of their shares at a price not less than $85 per share or more than $92 per share. If the tender is fully subscribed, $4 billion of common stock will be repurchased, representing 27% to 29% of the outstanding shares as of March 31, 2005.
According to the Photo Marketing Association International, sales of digital cameras are expected to increase by 13% in 2005 to where 52% of households would own a digital camera by the end of 2005.
The German investor confidence index declined for the first time in 6 months in April.
According to Bloomberg, China’s economy probably grew by 9% in this year’s first quarter, the slowest growth in 2 years. India’s economy increased to as much as 8% in the fiscal year ended March 2005.
In February 2005, industrial production in the eurozone was down 0.5% compared to the prior month.
Britain’s CPI rose 1.9% in March over last year, the highest in almost 7 years.
Sunroc will close its Harrington, DE plant. And 124 workers will be cut from the payroll.
Lucent Technologies, Inc. (LU) said second-quarter net income rose to $282 million, or 6 cents a share, from $88 million, or 2 cents a share, in the year-earlier quarter. The earnings released today included 2 cents in tax benefit. The results were in line with the forecast of analysts polled by Thomson First Call. Revenue for the period climbed 6% to $2.34 billion. Compared with the year-ago quarter, revenues in the United
States increased 10 percent and revenues outside the United States increased 1
percent. Importantly, Lucent posted its highest quarterly revenues for wireless since 2002. Looking ahead, management said it sees 2005 revenue growth in the mid-single digits. Jeong Kim, the former chief executive and founder of Yurie Systems, which Lucent acquired in 1998, will rejoin Lucent as president of Bell Labs. He will succeed Bill O'Shea, who is retiring after 33 years of service to the company. Kim left Lucent in 2001. His return is a big boost for Bell Labs.
From the Financial Times: “A few months ago Ian Sideris, a partner at Simmons & Simmons law firm, was completing a contract for a collateralised debt obligation when he asked a delicate question: who was the investor buying this CDO, a complex instrument that allows investors to buy pools of debt? The answer took him aback.
Rather than a hedge fund or bank, as Mr Simkins had expected, the client was an Australian charity. "We need to realise that the universe of investors for this type of product has widened in the last year," he says. "But then you also have to wonder about the capacity of some of these new investors to understand the economics [of what they are buying]."
According to a recent survey by ISDA, the credit derivatives market was worth $8.4 trillion at the end of 2004, 123% higher than the year before and about 45 times bigger than in 1997. One area of concern is collateralized debt obligations which are complex pools of credit risk bundled frequently into highly leveraged packages. The Fed recently stated it was concerned that up to 1 in 10 investors who buy CDOs may not fully understand the risks. In all likelihood, the credit derivatives market will exceed the size of our country’s GDP in 2005. If there a hiccup in CDOs should occur, the consequences could be profound. Such risk, in my view, is clearly not built into today’s equity and credit markets. It should be noted a growing number of deals remain unconfirmed between counterparties months after their agreement by traders. Not surprisingly, volatility as measured by the VIX index is on the rise.
Gary Shilling: “Markets remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent.”
Mark Twain once said that a cat that sits on a hot stove will never sit on a hot stove again, nor on a cold one either, because they all look alike. Is there any correlation between a hot stove or a cold stove and the appearance of market risk in today’s investing environment?
According to the latest AAI I statistics, 42% of investor sentiment was bearish, 42% was neutral, and 17% was bullish. The bullish camp was the smallest in 13 years. Meanwhile, Market Vane’s bullish consensus increased last week to 64% from 63%. Obviously, statistics can have a large variance, and that’s why it’s necessary to do your homework.
The ARMS Index was developed by Richard Arms 38 years ago. It is a volume-based breath indicator with analysis of advancing/declining issues in relationship to their corresponding volume. If the ratio is 1, then there is a balance, above 1 more volume in declining issues, and below 1 more volume in advancing issues. As of the market close on Friday, the 10-day moving average was 1.195, and that was a fairly neutral reading in spite of the sharp decline in the market indices last week.
We are smack in the middle of earnings season for this year’s first quarter. It is well to remember that corporate profits are approaching $1.1 trillion or 9% of GDP. The 25-year average is about 7%. Consequently, it is wise to lower our expectations for earnings going forward.
In January, MMM predicted sales growth of 5 to 7%. For the first quarter, sales rose 1.8%. Profits in health care rose 18%, and this division carried the day for the remainder of the company.
Buick’s sales were down 22% in this year’s first quarter and Pontiac’s sales were down 17%. Which brand will be “fired?”
The March Spherion Employment Report showed that 53% of 3,200 employed adults surveyed in Ohio feel there are fewer jobs available, up 10 percentage points from February. In addition, the percentage of Ohio workers who believe the economy is getting weaker or staying the same was 76%, an increase of 7 percentage points from February. Where is Pastor Parsley now? Breaking bread with Karl Rove and Tom DeLay?
Kerr-McGee announced it is commencing a modified “Dutch Auction” tender offer for up to $4 billion of its common stock. The offer will expire on May 18 unless extended. Shareholders will have the opportunity to tender some or all of their shares at a price not less than $85 per share or more than $92 per share. If the tender is fully subscribed, $4 billion of common stock will be repurchased, representing 27% to 29% of the outstanding shares as of March 31, 2005.
According to the Photo Marketing Association International, sales of digital cameras are expected to increase by 13% in 2005 to where 52% of households would own a digital camera by the end of 2005.
The German investor confidence index declined for the first time in 6 months in April.
According to Bloomberg, China’s economy probably grew by 9% in this year’s first quarter, the slowest growth in 2 years. India’s economy increased to as much as 8% in the fiscal year ended March 2005.
In February 2005, industrial production in the eurozone was down 0.5% compared to the prior month.
Britain’s CPI rose 1.9% in March over last year, the highest in almost 7 years.
Sunroc will close its Harrington, DE plant. And 124 workers will be cut from the payroll.
Lucent Technologies, Inc. (LU) said second-quarter net income rose to $282 million, or 6 cents a share, from $88 million, or 2 cents a share, in the year-earlier quarter. The earnings released today included 2 cents in tax benefit. The results were in line with the forecast of analysts polled by Thomson First Call. Revenue for the period climbed 6% to $2.34 billion. Compared with the year-ago quarter, revenues in the United
States increased 10 percent and revenues outside the United States increased 1
percent. Importantly, Lucent posted its highest quarterly revenues for wireless since 2002. Looking ahead, management said it sees 2005 revenue growth in the mid-single digits. Jeong Kim, the former chief executive and founder of Yurie Systems, which Lucent acquired in 1998, will rejoin Lucent as president of Bell Labs. He will succeed Bill O'Shea, who is retiring after 33 years of service to the company. Kim left Lucent in 2001. His return is a big boost for Bell Labs.
From the Financial Times: “A few months ago Ian Sideris, a partner at Simmons & Simmons law firm, was completing a contract for a collateralised debt obligation when he asked a delicate question: who was the investor buying this CDO, a complex instrument that allows investors to buy pools of debt? The answer took him aback.
Rather than a hedge fund or bank, as Mr Simkins had expected, the client was an Australian charity. "We need to realise that the universe of investors for this type of product has widened in the last year," he says. "But then you also have to wonder about the capacity of some of these new investors to understand the economics [of what they are buying]."
Monday, April 18, 2005
Global Melting
4/18/05 Global Melting
Nouriel Roubini: “The trouble is that, using protectionist language to bully China to revalue its currency is a dangrerous and reckless game to play. Given the current volatile times and sharply falling US equity markets, protectionist rattle-sabering to move the dollar down may lead to a financial crash. One should only remember that one of the immediate trigger of the 1987 stock market crash was investors' anxiety about U.S. trade and fiscal deficits and U.S. criticism of West Germany and Japan economic policies and currency values. On the weekend before the 1987 stock market crash, Treasury Secretary Baker made a statement in a television interview that the dollar should slip further, publicly criticizing the German government. The US advocacy of a stronger German Mark and Japanese Yen then triggered a sudden exit of foreign investors from US financial markets and the stock market crash of Black Monday as it led to expectations of capital losses on US dollar assets. Thus, bullying of China into unilaterally revaluing is not only bad economic policy: it may also lead to a financial crash.”
Benchmark indices declined in all of the 16 Western European markets that were open.
Japan’s stocks plunge 3.8% to a 4-month low. It was the biggest drop in 11 months.
European shares stand at a 2 ½-month low.
Germany’s Dax Index declined 2.5%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 2.2%.
Oil dipped below $50 a barrel to $49.96.
Philips Electronics NV’s first quarter tumbled close to 80%.
Brad Setser predicts the U.S. current account deficit may worsen this year to the $850 to $900 billion range.
Paul Volcker: “Home ownership has become a vehicle for borrowing.”
John Hussman stated “this is the first time since early 2003 that the Fund (Hussman Strategic Growth Fund) has been fully hedged by fully offsetting the value of our stock holdings with short sales in the S&P 100 and the Russell 2000…This is not a market that’s likely to be accommodating to anybody who is reckless about risk here.”
IMF managing director Rodrigo De Rato observed “if policies do not adapt, do not change to react to these imbalances, we run the risk of an abrupt correction of the markets… when confidence for different reasons could evaporate or could be reduced.”
Alcan will likely close a number of its aluminum smelting plants in Europe due to soaring costs.
Hyundai targets 1 million vehicle sales in China by 2010.
Adobe reached an agreement to buy Macromedia for $3.4 billion in an all-stock deal.
When negative sentiment reaches abnormal heights, as is the case this morning, it is not unusual to experience a sharp rally. As I have stated for the past five months, I would utilize rallies to reduce positions in equities where the price does not currently reflect the risk potential for revenue and earnings disappointment. In other words, it is hoped that, as an investor, you truly know the prospects for the companies in which you have an ownership interest. It is not sufficient to read analyst reports. Independent research is required.
Nationwide, the number of mortgages for investment property has jumped 43 percent over the last three years to 8.65 percent of all mortgages in 2004, according to San Francisco research firm LoanPerformance. In San Diego County, mortgages for investment property have soared 95 percent to 12.48 percent of all mortgages over the same time period, said LoanPerformance.
Nouriel Roubini: “The trouble is that, using protectionist language to bully China to revalue its currency is a dangrerous and reckless game to play. Given the current volatile times and sharply falling US equity markets, protectionist rattle-sabering to move the dollar down may lead to a financial crash. One should only remember that one of the immediate trigger of the 1987 stock market crash was investors' anxiety about U.S. trade and fiscal deficits and U.S. criticism of West Germany and Japan economic policies and currency values. On the weekend before the 1987 stock market crash, Treasury Secretary Baker made a statement in a television interview that the dollar should slip further, publicly criticizing the German government. The US advocacy of a stronger German Mark and Japanese Yen then triggered a sudden exit of foreign investors from US financial markets and the stock market crash of Black Monday as it led to expectations of capital losses on US dollar assets. Thus, bullying of China into unilaterally revaluing is not only bad economic policy: it may also lead to a financial crash.”
Benchmark indices declined in all of the 16 Western European markets that were open.
Japan’s stocks plunge 3.8% to a 4-month low. It was the biggest drop in 11 months.
European shares stand at a 2 ½-month low.
Germany’s Dax Index declined 2.5%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 2.2%.
Oil dipped below $50 a barrel to $49.96.
Philips Electronics NV’s first quarter tumbled close to 80%.
Brad Setser predicts the U.S. current account deficit may worsen this year to the $850 to $900 billion range.
Paul Volcker: “Home ownership has become a vehicle for borrowing.”
John Hussman stated “this is the first time since early 2003 that the Fund (Hussman Strategic Growth Fund) has been fully hedged by fully offsetting the value of our stock holdings with short sales in the S&P 100 and the Russell 2000…This is not a market that’s likely to be accommodating to anybody who is reckless about risk here.”
IMF managing director Rodrigo De Rato observed “if policies do not adapt, do not change to react to these imbalances, we run the risk of an abrupt correction of the markets… when confidence for different reasons could evaporate or could be reduced.”
Alcan will likely close a number of its aluminum smelting plants in Europe due to soaring costs.
Hyundai targets 1 million vehicle sales in China by 2010.
Adobe reached an agreement to buy Macromedia for $3.4 billion in an all-stock deal.
When negative sentiment reaches abnormal heights, as is the case this morning, it is not unusual to experience a sharp rally. As I have stated for the past five months, I would utilize rallies to reduce positions in equities where the price does not currently reflect the risk potential for revenue and earnings disappointment. In other words, it is hoped that, as an investor, you truly know the prospects for the companies in which you have an ownership interest. It is not sufficient to read analyst reports. Independent research is required.
Nationwide, the number of mortgages for investment property has jumped 43 percent over the last three years to 8.65 percent of all mortgages in 2004, according to San Francisco research firm LoanPerformance. In San Diego County, mortgages for investment property have soared 95 percent to 12.48 percent of all mortgages over the same time period, said LoanPerformance.
Sunday, April 17, 2005
Gaps
4/17/05 Gaps
"Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration." Lincoln's First Annual Message to Congress, December 3, 1861.
Sol Palha: “History has shown us that good plays always have a pain/aggravation and then frustration stage before finally exploding up. Gold, natural gas, oil, silver, nanotech, biotech etc. all went through similar stages.”
According to a study by Torto Wheaton Research in Boston, the cost of renting an apartment in the Washington DC area in 2004 was just 59% of the cost of buying a home. That’s down from 82% in 2001 and presently the widest gap since 1989. I feel confident a similar study of the San Francisco Bay Area would show even more disconcerting results. In sum, there are times when it is more prudent to rent than to buy.
In the equity markets there frequently are gaps between value and perceived growth. To take advantage of this gap requires, at the very least, much study and patience. It means waiting for the appropriate risk/reward. After making such a choice, there usually will be an additional waiting period accompanied by pain/aggravation and frustration. Self-doubt might arise. You need to know what you are buying, and be comfortable with that knowledge. The waiting period could last for two years. Can you handle that frustration? The payoff time gap must be considered. So must your personality. Are you cut out for this endeavor? I savor the challenge.
If you own Merck at $45 and the stock gaps down to $25 because of Vioxx concerns, what do you do? Do you sell on the news? Do you average down because Merck is not a one trick pony? Merck is back to $35. What do you do? If you can’t handle gaps, don’t invest. There will be others like Merck.
Some businesses go out of style because of new technology. Universal Music’s record-processing plant in Gloversville, NY will close and 112 union workers will lose their jobs. There isn’t much call for vinyl records these days.
"Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration." Lincoln's First Annual Message to Congress, December 3, 1861.
Sol Palha: “History has shown us that good plays always have a pain/aggravation and then frustration stage before finally exploding up. Gold, natural gas, oil, silver, nanotech, biotech etc. all went through similar stages.”
According to a study by Torto Wheaton Research in Boston, the cost of renting an apartment in the Washington DC area in 2004 was just 59% of the cost of buying a home. That’s down from 82% in 2001 and presently the widest gap since 1989. I feel confident a similar study of the San Francisco Bay Area would show even more disconcerting results. In sum, there are times when it is more prudent to rent than to buy.
In the equity markets there frequently are gaps between value and perceived growth. To take advantage of this gap requires, at the very least, much study and patience. It means waiting for the appropriate risk/reward. After making such a choice, there usually will be an additional waiting period accompanied by pain/aggravation and frustration. Self-doubt might arise. You need to know what you are buying, and be comfortable with that knowledge. The waiting period could last for two years. Can you handle that frustration? The payoff time gap must be considered. So must your personality. Are you cut out for this endeavor? I savor the challenge.
If you own Merck at $45 and the stock gaps down to $25 because of Vioxx concerns, what do you do? Do you sell on the news? Do you average down because Merck is not a one trick pony? Merck is back to $35. What do you do? If you can’t handle gaps, don’t invest. There will be others like Merck.
Some businesses go out of style because of new technology. Universal Music’s record-processing plant in Gloversville, NY will close and 112 union workers will lose their jobs. There isn’t much call for vinyl records these days.
Saturday, April 16, 2005
Taxes And A Small Cup Of Coffee
4/16/05 Taxes And A Small Cup Of Coffee
Federal agencies are not producing the transparent performance reports that are mandated by law and intended to describe the public benefits they provide to Americans, according to a study released today by scholars from the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.
“Especially on Tax Day, Americans deserve to know what they are getting when they spend $2 trillion on the federal government,” said Jerry Ellig, a Mercatus Center senior research fellow and study co-author. “But our study shows that many agencies are simply not living up to their mandatory reporting obligations.”
The Mercatus Center’s “6th Annual Performance Report Scorecard,” evaluates the performance and accountability reports produced by 24 Cabinet departments and other agencies covered under the Chief Financial Officers Act of 1990. “The annual performance reports are intended to identify how much public benefit federal agencies produce for citizens, and at what cost,” said Maurice McTigue, a Mercatus distinguished visiting scholar and study co-author. “Half the agencies we studied aren’t meeting reporting requirements similar to those we now demand of publicly traded companies, which means we have no idea whether or not our investments as taxpayers are going towards programs that work.”
For fiscal year 2004, the Departments of Labor, State, Transportation, and Veterans Affairs produced the highest rated reports, with the Department of Commerce seeing substantial improvement. “We saw some modest improvement this year, but the average scores in six out of 12 categories is still below acceptable levels,” said McTigue, a former New Zealand government minister. The Departments of Defense and Homeland Security, and the Office of Personnel Management had the lowest-ranked reports in FY 2004. Health and Human Services, representing 24 percent of federal spending, missed the reporting deadline and ranked last (24th) since the report could not be included in the study.
“Only 11 percent of the federal budget is covered by good reporting, and two-thirds is in agencies whose reporting is unsatisfactory,” said Ellig, a senior research fellow at Mercatus. “It’s disappointing that some of the agencies with the biggest budgets have consistently failed to produce transparent reports that assess the public benefits they produce and show how their leaders are using this information to improve performance in the future,” he added.
According to the 2005 Congressional Pig Book, Congress jammed 13,997 pork projects into the 13 appropriations bills for a total of $27.3 billion. Try and remember the pork as you bust your butts at work—day in and day out.
The University of Michigan Sentiment Index dropped to 88.7% in April from 92.6% in March. Current conditions declined to 103.9 from 108 and expectations to 79 from 82.8.
Foreigners purchased many more U.S. assets in February-- $84.5 billion—than I had envisioned. The drop was small from January’s $92.5 billion.
The U.S. administration is calling for China to move immediately to introduce a flexible currency. Unfortunately, a flexible currency will still leave a huge disparity in labor costs.
China’s exports have overtaken Japan’s. Not surprisingly, the People’s Bank of China stated the country’s forex reserves grew 49.9% year-on-year in the first quarter to $659.1 billion.
The Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index in April plummeted to 3.1 from a revised 20.2 in March. It was the lowest reading since April 2003.
U.S. March import prices rose 1.8%, the fastest increase in more than 2 years. Excluding petroleum, import prices rose 0.3%, while export prices rose 0.7%. Excluding agricultural goods, export prices rose 0.4%.
In March, factory output declined 0.1%. It was the first drop in six months.
Doug Noland: “But with air now flowing out of the speculative Bubble in Risk, financial dislocation dynamics are in play.”
Although the rise in housing prices in San Diego and Los Angeles has begun to slow a bit, the same cannot be said for the Bay Area around San Francisco. There, home prices rose to new highs in March as sales for that month were at their highest level in 16 years. The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $568,000, a new record, and up 3.5% for the month and up 19.8% from March 2004. Prices are going up at their fastest pace in four years.
Fed Board Governor Donald Kohn: “A measured pace of rate increases is our best guess for now…But that guess is conditional on our expectations that the economy will evolve roughly along the lines I have described…Market participants should understand the nature of the chances they are taking. Markets price best if they take account not only of the most likely outcome but also of the risks of alternative developments…Long-term rates probably will increase in a more normal pattern of responses than we have seen over the last year.”
Bond market participants do not appear to understand the risks they are taking. During this week, treasury yields dropped dramatically to multi-month lows. We might take a closer view of the gap between the 5-year treasury yield at 3.87% and GM’s 5 3/8 bond due in 2011 at a yield of just over 11%. That is not a misprint. Forget the rating on GM bonds. Do you think the company will default on this obligation in 6 years? If you do, then you had better take a closer look at your equity portfolio. I believe that GM can come back. I remember when only a short time back McDonald’s stock was selling at close to $12 a share, and no one wanted to take their child there to eat. I didn’t eat at McDonald’s. I munched on the stock. The meal has been real tasty. I’d rather own GM bonds yielding 11% than a 5-year Treasury any day of the week. Why? I prefer to invest in private enterprise rather than government employees. Government produces red ink. They generate pork. They create financial risk and instability. Record twin tower deficits eventually lead to chaos. I’ll take a Chevy Suburban for safety over that treasury bond. I’ve owned three in my lifetime. How many treasury bonds do you own? Not many I bet. On the other hand, China and Japan own them up the wazoo!!!!!!!
Bechtel is laying off 700 workers. The finger in the chili at the San Jose Wendy’s has led to layoffs in some Northern California locations. Monaco Coach will close its Bend, Oregon facility. Thor America is closing its Middleburg plant that produces Citation and Chateau recreational vehicles. About 140 employees will lose their jobs. Tower Automotive is closing its Bowling Green, KY, Belcamp, MD, and Corydon, IND plants, and 800 employees will lose their jobs. Oneida is closing its Buffalo distribution center, and 90 workers will be cut from the payroll.
There are many ways to judge the economy; however, not many can be helpful in real-time. My favorite is this one. Everyone has passed or been to a 7 Eleven store. Management can tell almost instantaneously when the economy is taking a turn for the better or for the worst. If the customer goes from ordering a large coffee to a small coffee, then you know the economy is at the very least slowing down. It is a very early warning signal. I’m seeing more small coffees being poured.
Federal agencies are not producing the transparent performance reports that are mandated by law and intended to describe the public benefits they provide to Americans, according to a study released today by scholars from the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.
“Especially on Tax Day, Americans deserve to know what they are getting when they spend $2 trillion on the federal government,” said Jerry Ellig, a Mercatus Center senior research fellow and study co-author. “But our study shows that many agencies are simply not living up to their mandatory reporting obligations.”
The Mercatus Center’s “6th Annual Performance Report Scorecard,” evaluates the performance and accountability reports produced by 24 Cabinet departments and other agencies covered under the Chief Financial Officers Act of 1990. “The annual performance reports are intended to identify how much public benefit federal agencies produce for citizens, and at what cost,” said Maurice McTigue, a Mercatus distinguished visiting scholar and study co-author. “Half the agencies we studied aren’t meeting reporting requirements similar to those we now demand of publicly traded companies, which means we have no idea whether or not our investments as taxpayers are going towards programs that work.”
For fiscal year 2004, the Departments of Labor, State, Transportation, and Veterans Affairs produced the highest rated reports, with the Department of Commerce seeing substantial improvement. “We saw some modest improvement this year, but the average scores in six out of 12 categories is still below acceptable levels,” said McTigue, a former New Zealand government minister. The Departments of Defense and Homeland Security, and the Office of Personnel Management had the lowest-ranked reports in FY 2004. Health and Human Services, representing 24 percent of federal spending, missed the reporting deadline and ranked last (24th) since the report could not be included in the study.
“Only 11 percent of the federal budget is covered by good reporting, and two-thirds is in agencies whose reporting is unsatisfactory,” said Ellig, a senior research fellow at Mercatus. “It’s disappointing that some of the agencies with the biggest budgets have consistently failed to produce transparent reports that assess the public benefits they produce and show how their leaders are using this information to improve performance in the future,” he added.
According to the 2005 Congressional Pig Book, Congress jammed 13,997 pork projects into the 13 appropriations bills for a total of $27.3 billion. Try and remember the pork as you bust your butts at work—day in and day out.
The University of Michigan Sentiment Index dropped to 88.7% in April from 92.6% in March. Current conditions declined to 103.9 from 108 and expectations to 79 from 82.8.
Foreigners purchased many more U.S. assets in February-- $84.5 billion—than I had envisioned. The drop was small from January’s $92.5 billion.
The U.S. administration is calling for China to move immediately to introduce a flexible currency. Unfortunately, a flexible currency will still leave a huge disparity in labor costs.
China’s exports have overtaken Japan’s. Not surprisingly, the People’s Bank of China stated the country’s forex reserves grew 49.9% year-on-year in the first quarter to $659.1 billion.
The Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index in April plummeted to 3.1 from a revised 20.2 in March. It was the lowest reading since April 2003.
U.S. March import prices rose 1.8%, the fastest increase in more than 2 years. Excluding petroleum, import prices rose 0.3%, while export prices rose 0.7%. Excluding agricultural goods, export prices rose 0.4%.
In March, factory output declined 0.1%. It was the first drop in six months.
Doug Noland: “But with air now flowing out of the speculative Bubble in Risk, financial dislocation dynamics are in play.”
Although the rise in housing prices in San Diego and Los Angeles has begun to slow a bit, the same cannot be said for the Bay Area around San Francisco. There, home prices rose to new highs in March as sales for that month were at their highest level in 16 years. The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $568,000, a new record, and up 3.5% for the month and up 19.8% from March 2004. Prices are going up at their fastest pace in four years.
Fed Board Governor Donald Kohn: “A measured pace of rate increases is our best guess for now…But that guess is conditional on our expectations that the economy will evolve roughly along the lines I have described…Market participants should understand the nature of the chances they are taking. Markets price best if they take account not only of the most likely outcome but also of the risks of alternative developments…Long-term rates probably will increase in a more normal pattern of responses than we have seen over the last year.”
Bond market participants do not appear to understand the risks they are taking. During this week, treasury yields dropped dramatically to multi-month lows. We might take a closer view of the gap between the 5-year treasury yield at 3.87% and GM’s 5 3/8 bond due in 2011 at a yield of just over 11%. That is not a misprint. Forget the rating on GM bonds. Do you think the company will default on this obligation in 6 years? If you do, then you had better take a closer look at your equity portfolio. I believe that GM can come back. I remember when only a short time back McDonald’s stock was selling at close to $12 a share, and no one wanted to take their child there to eat. I didn’t eat at McDonald’s. I munched on the stock. The meal has been real tasty. I’d rather own GM bonds yielding 11% than a 5-year Treasury any day of the week. Why? I prefer to invest in private enterprise rather than government employees. Government produces red ink. They generate pork. They create financial risk and instability. Record twin tower deficits eventually lead to chaos. I’ll take a Chevy Suburban for safety over that treasury bond. I’ve owned three in my lifetime. How many treasury bonds do you own? Not many I bet. On the other hand, China and Japan own them up the wazoo!!!!!!!
Bechtel is laying off 700 workers. The finger in the chili at the San Jose Wendy’s has led to layoffs in some Northern California locations. Monaco Coach will close its Bend, Oregon facility. Thor America is closing its Middleburg plant that produces Citation and Chateau recreational vehicles. About 140 employees will lose their jobs. Tower Automotive is closing its Bowling Green, KY, Belcamp, MD, and Corydon, IND plants, and 800 employees will lose their jobs. Oneida is closing its Buffalo distribution center, and 90 workers will be cut from the payroll.
There are many ways to judge the economy; however, not many can be helpful in real-time. My favorite is this one. Everyone has passed or been to a 7 Eleven store. Management can tell almost instantaneously when the economy is taking a turn for the better or for the worst. If the customer goes from ordering a large coffee to a small coffee, then you know the economy is at the very least slowing down. It is a very early warning signal. I’m seeing more small coffees being poured.
Friday, April 15, 2005
Oy Vey! Breaks And Brakes
4/15/05 Oy Vey! Breaks And Brakes
Chief Justice John Marshall: “The power to tax is the power to destroy.”
President Bush: “My view of China is, is that it’s a great nation growing like mad. And that’s one of the reasons why Americans are seeing over $2 gasoline, is because demand for energy in China is large, and supply around the world hasn’t kept up with the increase in demand.” The last time I checked the U.S. was the largest consumer of crude. By the way, crude is trading around $50.60 a barrel.
In the newest Harris poll of 1,010 U.S. adults, Bush’s job ratings fell to 44% positive, 56% negative, the worst numbers of his presidency.
The UAW will work with General Motors Corp. to reduce the automaker's $5.6-billion-plus health care tab -- but it must be done within the confines of the current 4-year contract. That's because the UAW doesn't intend to reopen that agreement, union officials said Thursday during and after an annual UAW-GM meeting. Rising health care costs have truly helped to put the brakes on GM’s earnings.
IBM’s quarterly results were substantially below expectations. The company might restructure, and blamed the weak sales growth on the inability to close deals. Give me a break! With about 370,000 employees, there must be a closer or two. This company has been living quarter-to-quarter on buying back stock for its treasury. I have received a good deal of criticism and snipes from those long IBM. At $80, the hot shots are nursing some ugly marks to the market.
Weak pricing sure put the brakes on Samsung’s quarterly results. They dropped 52%, and Sony Ericsson wasn’t pretty either as they were also hit with a backlog of inventory to go with the weak pricing.
Sun Micro disappointed with a small loss instead of a small profit, but GE came through with 38 cents versus 32 cents.
I’d like to wish a happy 50th anniversary to McDonald’s and to Salk’s polio vaccine as well as a happy 102nd to the Golden Rule Store. You might know it as JC Penney.
Yesterday, the Dow dropped to a 5-month low and it declined through its 200 day moving average.
Twenty-eight states and territories reported increased unemployment claims in the week that ended April 2, while 25 reported decreases.
Black and Decker is closing its last North Carolina plant. Production will be moved to Mexico and Tennessee. About 675 employees will be impacted. Northwest Airlines will layoff 600 mechanics. Therma-Wave will cut 8% of its workforce.
Hot money’s only loyalty is to going where the action can produce profits. The Nasdaq is still down 60% from the high of five years ago. At the earliest whiff of a top, the hot money will leave the housing market. Just as profits from the dotcom era generated enormous GDP growth, so have escalating real estate prices. There had better be a third leg to the stool. Otherwise, our economy will hit the dirt with a thud. Bear markets produce torture but don’t take any prisoners.
This weekend the G-7 gather in Washington. China will not be present; however, in less than 6 weeks, central bankers from Japan, China, and South Korea will get together at their first international conference. You can bet currency re-valuation will be on the table for discussion.
Japan, China, Taiwan, Korea, India, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia combined hold approximately $2.4 trillion in forex reserves.
In the first quarter of 2001, I suggested one consider the purchase of Newmont Mining shares at $16. Since then, the stock has reached $50 on a few occasions and now rests around $40. Should market weakness continue, adding to holdings around $36 might prove advantageous.
Yesterday, the Dollar Index rose above its 200-day moving average against an index of 6 currencies. Today will be a good test for the dollar. A report will show the net amount of U.S. financial assets purchased by foreigners in February. In January, there was a leap up to $91.5 billion. A drop of $30 billion in February would not be surprising.
Chief Justice John Marshall: “The power to tax is the power to destroy.”
President Bush: “My view of China is, is that it’s a great nation growing like mad. And that’s one of the reasons why Americans are seeing over $2 gasoline, is because demand for energy in China is large, and supply around the world hasn’t kept up with the increase in demand.” The last time I checked the U.S. was the largest consumer of crude. By the way, crude is trading around $50.60 a barrel.
In the newest Harris poll of 1,010 U.S. adults, Bush’s job ratings fell to 44% positive, 56% negative, the worst numbers of his presidency.
The UAW will work with General Motors Corp. to reduce the automaker's $5.6-billion-plus health care tab -- but it must be done within the confines of the current 4-year contract. That's because the UAW doesn't intend to reopen that agreement, union officials said Thursday during and after an annual UAW-GM meeting. Rising health care costs have truly helped to put the brakes on GM’s earnings.
IBM’s quarterly results were substantially below expectations. The company might restructure, and blamed the weak sales growth on the inability to close deals. Give me a break! With about 370,000 employees, there must be a closer or two. This company has been living quarter-to-quarter on buying back stock for its treasury. I have received a good deal of criticism and snipes from those long IBM. At $80, the hot shots are nursing some ugly marks to the market.
Weak pricing sure put the brakes on Samsung’s quarterly results. They dropped 52%, and Sony Ericsson wasn’t pretty either as they were also hit with a backlog of inventory to go with the weak pricing.
Sun Micro disappointed with a small loss instead of a small profit, but GE came through with 38 cents versus 32 cents.
I’d like to wish a happy 50th anniversary to McDonald’s and to Salk’s polio vaccine as well as a happy 102nd to the Golden Rule Store. You might know it as JC Penney.
Yesterday, the Dow dropped to a 5-month low and it declined through its 200 day moving average.
Twenty-eight states and territories reported increased unemployment claims in the week that ended April 2, while 25 reported decreases.
Black and Decker is closing its last North Carolina plant. Production will be moved to Mexico and Tennessee. About 675 employees will be impacted. Northwest Airlines will layoff 600 mechanics. Therma-Wave will cut 8% of its workforce.
Hot money’s only loyalty is to going where the action can produce profits. The Nasdaq is still down 60% from the high of five years ago. At the earliest whiff of a top, the hot money will leave the housing market. Just as profits from the dotcom era generated enormous GDP growth, so have escalating real estate prices. There had better be a third leg to the stool. Otherwise, our economy will hit the dirt with a thud. Bear markets produce torture but don’t take any prisoners.
This weekend the G-7 gather in Washington. China will not be present; however, in less than 6 weeks, central bankers from Japan, China, and South Korea will get together at their first international conference. You can bet currency re-valuation will be on the table for discussion.
Japan, China, Taiwan, Korea, India, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia combined hold approximately $2.4 trillion in forex reserves.
In the first quarter of 2001, I suggested one consider the purchase of Newmont Mining shares at $16. Since then, the stock has reached $50 on a few occasions and now rests around $40. Should market weakness continue, adding to holdings around $36 might prove advantageous.
Yesterday, the Dollar Index rose above its 200-day moving average against an index of 6 currencies. Today will be a good test for the dollar. A report will show the net amount of U.S. financial assets purchased by foreigners in February. In January, there was a leap up to $91.5 billion. A drop of $30 billion in February would not be surprising.
Wednesday, April 13, 2005
Fear Factor
4/14/05 Fear Factor
That Harley roar you heard was really a revved agonizing scream. The Hog shareowners lost $3 billion in market value in yesterday's trading session. It was only a few weeks ago that I mentioned the market cap for Harley-Davidson exceeded that of GM. No more. Here's another one for you. The market cap for Daimler Chrysler is $44 billion. GM's is $16 billion, Ford's is $18.3 billion, and Harley's $14.2 billion. You might consider buying GM, Ford, and Harley and shorting DaimlerChrysler and we'll take a look see in a month or so. By the way, GM's market share in Europe in the first quarter rose to 9.8% from 9.4% in the year earlier period. That's the good news. The bad news is the company still loses money in Europe.
Arthur Schopenauer: "We forget three fourths of ourselves to be like other people." Let's give it a whirl and stop doing that.
As the Fed worries more about inflation, crude dipped to $50.22 a barrel. The Fed is a great contrarian indicator.
March retail sales, excluding auto and gas sales, fell 0.1%, the first decline in a year. Aren't you glad the Fed sees the economy getting stronger? The Fed is a great contarian indicator.
The government reported the 9th straight weekly rise (3.6 million barrels) in crude oil inventories and a buildup of gasoline stocks (800,000 barrels).
San Diego has yet to publish audited financial statements for 2003 and 2004. S&P has yanked the city's credit rating. Insolvency? Maybe San Diego should be delisted as a city.
ATMs are being installed at many Wal-Mart and Walgreen's locations.
Up to a quarter of the cement used by our construction industry in recent years has been imported, such as, from South Korea and Greece. I wonder if the mob buys direct and cuts out the middleman.
Germany and Russia signed a deal to build a natural gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea and deliver fuel from Western Siberia to Germany. It would bypass Poland.
Advanced Micro Devices will report a loss in the quarter but also announced that its flash memory unit would be spun off.
Apple continues to knock the cover off the ball as it earned $290 million or 34 cents per share on sales of $3.24 billion in the March quarter. Jobs makes it look easy. The great ones have a way of doing just that.
CME, the largest U.S. futures exchange and the largest regulated marketplace for foreign exchange, set a new volume record in its CME Euro FX futures yesterday of 211,929 contracts, representing a notional value of $34.3 billion.
Alberto SantaLuca: "For all of 2004, disposable personal income, which was approximately $8.7 trillion, exceeded expenditures by less than $100 billion." (We should not forget the one-time $32 billion Microsoft dividend.)..."With little evidence that job growth, income growth, and spending growth are accelerating out of their current levels, the current evidence favors stagnation or recession. This could happen within the next 4 to 6 quarters."
That Harley roar you heard was really a revved agonizing scream. The Hog shareowners lost $3 billion in market value in yesterday's trading session. It was only a few weeks ago that I mentioned the market cap for Harley-Davidson exceeded that of GM. No more. Here's another one for you. The market cap for Daimler Chrysler is $44 billion. GM's is $16 billion, Ford's is $18.3 billion, and Harley's $14.2 billion. You might consider buying GM, Ford, and Harley and shorting DaimlerChrysler and we'll take a look see in a month or so. By the way, GM's market share in Europe in the first quarter rose to 9.8% from 9.4% in the year earlier period. That's the good news. The bad news is the company still loses money in Europe.
Arthur Schopenauer: "We forget three fourths of ourselves to be like other people." Let's give it a whirl and stop doing that.
As the Fed worries more about inflation, crude dipped to $50.22 a barrel. The Fed is a great contrarian indicator.
March retail sales, excluding auto and gas sales, fell 0.1%, the first decline in a year. Aren't you glad the Fed sees the economy getting stronger? The Fed is a great contarian indicator.
The government reported the 9th straight weekly rise (3.6 million barrels) in crude oil inventories and a buildup of gasoline stocks (800,000 barrels).
San Diego has yet to publish audited financial statements for 2003 and 2004. S&P has yanked the city's credit rating. Insolvency? Maybe San Diego should be delisted as a city.
ATMs are being installed at many Wal-Mart and Walgreen's locations.
Up to a quarter of the cement used by our construction industry in recent years has been imported, such as, from South Korea and Greece. I wonder if the mob buys direct and cuts out the middleman.
Germany and Russia signed a deal to build a natural gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea and deliver fuel from Western Siberia to Germany. It would bypass Poland.
Advanced Micro Devices will report a loss in the quarter but also announced that its flash memory unit would be spun off.
Apple continues to knock the cover off the ball as it earned $290 million or 34 cents per share on sales of $3.24 billion in the March quarter. Jobs makes it look easy. The great ones have a way of doing just that.
CME, the largest U.S. futures exchange and the largest regulated marketplace for foreign exchange, set a new volume record in its CME Euro FX futures yesterday of 211,929 contracts, representing a notional value of $34.3 billion.
Alberto SantaLuca: "For all of 2004, disposable personal income, which was approximately $8.7 trillion, exceeded expenditures by less than $100 billion." (We should not forget the one-time $32 billion Microsoft dividend.)..."With little evidence that job growth, income growth, and spending growth are accelerating out of their current levels, the current evidence favors stagnation or recession. This could happen within the next 4 to 6 quarters."
Economic Signposts
4/13/05 Economic Signposts
In February, the U.S. trade deficit reached a monthly record of $61 billion with imports rising 1.6% and exports essentially flat. The only real improvement was the trade gap with China that dipped to $13.9 billion from $15.3 billion in the prior month. However, in the first two months of 2005, our trade deficit with the Eurozone widened from $10.6 billion a year ago to $12.6 billion this year. To add a bit of financing requirements to the fire, our federal budget deficit for March amounted to $71.2 billion and $294.7 billion for the six months through March 31. The efforts to reduce the federal deficit have not been successful. There's just too much pork in the Congress.
The stock market had a sharp reversal for the better in the latter part of yesterday's trading. Notes from the FOMC meeting got traders inspired as they realized that the Fed would not be raising rates by 50 basis points at the next meeting. On the other hand, the notes revealed a concern that inflation could be intensifying as growth appeared to be stronger than anticipated. The Fed must be eyeballing a different set of numbers than I am. An industry report stated that worldwide sales of chip equipment declined for the first time in 19 months in February. The IEA lowered its forecast for global oil demand for the first time this year. Crude dropped to a 6-week low of $51.20 a barrel. It is down 12% from its recent high; however, crude is still 38% higher than one year ago. In addition, Harley-Davidson cut its earnings growth and shipment forecast for 2005. BMC software warned that earnings and revenues would be disappointing for the quarter and the company plans to cut 825 to 875 employees or 12% of its payroll. Foundry Networks warned of a sharp revenue shortfall for the quarter.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas stated high tech job cuts were 59,537 in the first quarter of 2005, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2003.
Foreign direct investment in China rose 9.5% in this year's first quarter. For all of 2004, it amounted to $60.6 billion, and a similar figure is anticipated for 2005.
Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker: "Appreciation of some Asian currencies is more than highly desirable."
Yesterday, the beta site for Nouriel Roubini's daily economic monitor became effective. The link is www.regemonitor.com. I highly recommend it.
According to the Council On State Taxation, businesses paid over $47 billion in state and local taxes in 2004, or 43% of all state and local taxes, nearly 10% higher than in the prior year.
The AARP stated that wholesale prices for name-brand drugs jumped an avergae of 7.1% in 2004, the largest increase in 5 years.
In the week ended April 8, mortgage applications increased 6.1% and refinancing applications increased 5.6%.
In February, the U.S. trade deficit reached a monthly record of $61 billion with imports rising 1.6% and exports essentially flat. The only real improvement was the trade gap with China that dipped to $13.9 billion from $15.3 billion in the prior month. However, in the first two months of 2005, our trade deficit with the Eurozone widened from $10.6 billion a year ago to $12.6 billion this year. To add a bit of financing requirements to the fire, our federal budget deficit for March amounted to $71.2 billion and $294.7 billion for the six months through March 31. The efforts to reduce the federal deficit have not been successful. There's just too much pork in the Congress.
The stock market had a sharp reversal for the better in the latter part of yesterday's trading. Notes from the FOMC meeting got traders inspired as they realized that the Fed would not be raising rates by 50 basis points at the next meeting. On the other hand, the notes revealed a concern that inflation could be intensifying as growth appeared to be stronger than anticipated. The Fed must be eyeballing a different set of numbers than I am. An industry report stated that worldwide sales of chip equipment declined for the first time in 19 months in February. The IEA lowered its forecast for global oil demand for the first time this year. Crude dropped to a 6-week low of $51.20 a barrel. It is down 12% from its recent high; however, crude is still 38% higher than one year ago. In addition, Harley-Davidson cut its earnings growth and shipment forecast for 2005. BMC software warned that earnings and revenues would be disappointing for the quarter and the company plans to cut 825 to 875 employees or 12% of its payroll. Foundry Networks warned of a sharp revenue shortfall for the quarter.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas stated high tech job cuts were 59,537 in the first quarter of 2005, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2003.
Foreign direct investment in China rose 9.5% in this year's first quarter. For all of 2004, it amounted to $60.6 billion, and a similar figure is anticipated for 2005.
Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker: "Appreciation of some Asian currencies is more than highly desirable."
Yesterday, the beta site for Nouriel Roubini's daily economic monitor became effective. The link is www.regemonitor.com. I highly recommend it.
According to the Council On State Taxation, businesses paid over $47 billion in state and local taxes in 2004, or 43% of all state and local taxes, nearly 10% higher than in the prior year.
The AARP stated that wholesale prices for name-brand drugs jumped an avergae of 7.1% in 2004, the largest increase in 5 years.
In the week ended April 8, mortgage applications increased 6.1% and refinancing applications increased 5.6%.
Tuesday, April 12, 2005
Trade Deficit
4/12/05 Trade Deficit
In November 2004, the U.S. had its largest monthly trade deficit. It amounted to $59.4 billion. Our latest monthly deficit will be released this morning. It will be a whopper. The clues have been provided. In the first two months of 2005, China's exports to the U.S. rose almost 37%, while in the same period, our exports to China fell by 9.7%. In March, China had a $5.7 billion trade surplus, up from $4.4 billion in February, and its exports rose 33% for the month. We also know that Japan's February trade surplus was larger than expected. Meanwhile, India posted record exports of $80 billion in 2004-2005, a growth rate of 24%. This year projections are for exports of $90 billion. Additionally, Izal Ali, the chief economist for the Manila bank, stated the collective GDP of countries in Asia will rise from 6.4% to 6.9% this year. If pressures from Asian exports were not enough, the U.S trade deficit has ballooned even more so because of energy imports. The mounting trade deficit makes for a weaker dollar and some increased buying interest for gold.
ADB India predicts India will become the third largest economy with a share of 14.3% of the global economy by 2015, and thus overtake Japan in just 10 years. By 2025, it is projected that India's GDP will be 60% of the size of the U.S. economy. By 2035, economist Arvind Virmini believes the Indian economy will be larger than that of Western Europe and only slightly smaller than the U.S. economy.
Over the weekend, the latest shutdown of the Ford Ranger plant in St. Paul came with little warning for the plant's 1,800 workers. MetLife will cut 600 jobs.
Pepsi Bottling's quarterly net fell for the first time in 2 years.
In November 2004, the U.S. had its largest monthly trade deficit. It amounted to $59.4 billion. Our latest monthly deficit will be released this morning. It will be a whopper. The clues have been provided. In the first two months of 2005, China's exports to the U.S. rose almost 37%, while in the same period, our exports to China fell by 9.7%. In March, China had a $5.7 billion trade surplus, up from $4.4 billion in February, and its exports rose 33% for the month. We also know that Japan's February trade surplus was larger than expected. Meanwhile, India posted record exports of $80 billion in 2004-2005, a growth rate of 24%. This year projections are for exports of $90 billion. Additionally, Izal Ali, the chief economist for the Manila bank, stated the collective GDP of countries in Asia will rise from 6.4% to 6.9% this year. If pressures from Asian exports were not enough, the U.S trade deficit has ballooned even more so because of energy imports. The mounting trade deficit makes for a weaker dollar and some increased buying interest for gold.
ADB India predicts India will become the third largest economy with a share of 14.3% of the global economy by 2015, and thus overtake Japan in just 10 years. By 2025, it is projected that India's GDP will be 60% of the size of the U.S. economy. By 2035, economist Arvind Virmini believes the Indian economy will be larger than that of Western Europe and only slightly smaller than the U.S. economy.
Over the weekend, the latest shutdown of the Ford Ranger plant in St. Paul came with little warning for the plant's 1,800 workers. MetLife will cut 600 jobs.
Pepsi Bottling's quarterly net fell for the first time in 2 years.
Monday, April 11, 2005
Insights
4/11/05 Insights
From an email received this weekend:
"Can you imagine working for a company that has a little more than 500 employees and has the following statistics:
>* 29 have been accused of spousal abuse
>
>* 7 have been arrested for fraud
>
>* 19 have been accused of writing bad checks
>
>117 have directly or indirectly bankrupted at least 2 businesses
>
>* 3 have done time for assault
>
>* 71 cannot get a credit card due to bad credit
>
>* 14 have been arrested on drug-related charges
>
>* 8 have been arrested for shoplifting
>
>* 21 are currently defendants in lawsuits
>
>* 84 have been arrested for drunk driving in the last year
>
>Can you guess which organization this is?
>
>Give up yet?
>
>It's the 535 members of the United States Congress. The same group of
>
>idiots that crank out hundreds of new laws each year designed to keep
>
>the rest of us in line."
I read an interesting article over this weekend in the Cleveland Plain Dealer. It described one individual's experience in buying a Dell laptop through the company's website on Jan. 7. I learned that "Dell spokeswoman Jennifer Davis said the company has separate operations that sell computers through its Web site. The 'home and home office' store caters to home users of computers. The 'small business' store sells products designed for use in businesses from 1 to 200 employees." The configuration of the laptops is only slightly different, such as, the size of the computer's memory; however, the prices can have a large variance. The two subdivisions are separate entities within Dell. As such, a customer doesn't receive the small-business price through the home office store or vice versa. In addition, you cannot get a credit for one store through the other.
According to the California Association of Realtors, in 2004, one in six purchasers surveyed said they were buying a home for investment or tax purposes.
Crude oil has dipped to $52.88 per barrel.
In 2004, the CPI rose 2.7% and wages 2.5%. Janemarie Mulvey, chief economist with the Employment Policy Foundation, remarked "healthcare has eroded the wage base."
Since 1885, in every 5th year of each decade, stock prices have risen.
Ingram Micro's outsourcing plan has impacted 550 jobs.
Over the weekend, I read a most worthwhile blog. The link is http://marketmonk.blogs.com/pmtc
From an email received this weekend:
"Can you imagine working for a company that has a little more than 500 employees and has the following statistics:
>* 29 have been accused of spousal abuse
>
>* 7 have been arrested for fraud
>
>* 19 have been accused of writing bad checks
>
>117 have directly or indirectly bankrupted at least 2 businesses
>
>* 3 have done time for assault
>
>* 71 cannot get a credit card due to bad credit
>
>* 14 have been arrested on drug-related charges
>
>* 8 have been arrested for shoplifting
>
>* 21 are currently defendants in lawsuits
>
>* 84 have been arrested for drunk driving in the last year
>
>Can you guess which organization this is?
>
>Give up yet?
>
>It's the 535 members of the United States Congress. The same group of
>
>idiots that crank out hundreds of new laws each year designed to keep
>
>the rest of us in line."
I read an interesting article over this weekend in the Cleveland Plain Dealer. It described one individual's experience in buying a Dell laptop through the company's website on Jan. 7. I learned that "Dell spokeswoman Jennifer Davis said the company has separate operations that sell computers through its Web site. The 'home and home office' store caters to home users of computers. The 'small business' store sells products designed for use in businesses from 1 to 200 employees." The configuration of the laptops is only slightly different, such as, the size of the computer's memory; however, the prices can have a large variance. The two subdivisions are separate entities within Dell. As such, a customer doesn't receive the small-business price through the home office store or vice versa. In addition, you cannot get a credit for one store through the other.
According to the California Association of Realtors, in 2004, one in six purchasers surveyed said they were buying a home for investment or tax purposes.
Crude oil has dipped to $52.88 per barrel.
In 2004, the CPI rose 2.7% and wages 2.5%. Janemarie Mulvey, chief economist with the Employment Policy Foundation, remarked "healthcare has eroded the wage base."
Since 1885, in every 5th year of each decade, stock prices have risen.
Ingram Micro's outsourcing plan has impacted 550 jobs.
Over the weekend, I read a most worthwhile blog. The link is http://marketmonk.blogs.com/pmtc
Sunday, April 10, 2005
Fairness
4/10/05 Fairness
In response to Verizon's recent announcement that the company had privately purchased Carlos Slim's 13.7% ownership interest in MCI, Bill Miller of Legg Mason wrote the following letter to the CEO of MCI:
Dear Mr. Capellas, I trust that pursuant to the announcement by Verizon that it has agreed to purchase the shares of MCI held by Carlos Slim, the Board of MCI will insist that all shareholders of MCI be treated equally, and that, at a minimum, any agreement for MCI to be purchased by Verizon have the same present value as that received by Mr. Slim. As I indicated in my letter to the Board last week, events had madeVerizon's $23.50 offer moot; this subsequent development confirms that. There can be no reason for the Board to support an offer to MCI owners that is substantially inferior to what Verizon has just agreed to pay for a non-control block of stock. Shareholders would be outraged if the Board did less than insist that the identical terms be made available to all other owners. That, of course, implies a higher value than the $25.72 cash price Mr. Slim will receive, since he will have the use of that cash shortly, while other MCI owners would have to wait until closing if Verizon offered the same price, including the same effective call option on Verizon's stock. Our rough calculation of the present value of what Verizon agreed to pay Mr. Slim, including the call, is in excessof $27.00. For the Board to continue to insist that the prior offer of $23.50 is sufficient and fair would be unconscionable. If presented with any offer from Verizon that is less than the present value of what they are paying Mr. Slim, we will vote against it. I expect the Board will do its duty on behalf of all owners of MCI. Sincerely, Bill Miller Chief Executive Officer Legg Mason Capital Management
Jeffrey F. Kupfer, executive director of the President's bipartisan tax panel, stated "our mandate is to be revenue-neutral, and we are interpreting that with respect to the president's policy baseline, which does not include a permanent fix to the A.M.T. (Alternative Minimum Tax)." About 3 million Americans will be hit by the AMT in 2005 and an estimated 18 million in 2006. Leonard Burman, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute, stated "the AMT is a high tax increase built into law." I doubt whether anyone would disagree with that opinion.
Warren Buffett: "The CEO who misleads others in publicmay eventually mislead himself in private."
Yesterday, I mentioned the new Shanghai home ownership law. The new law should materially impact the demand for various building materials, such as, lumber, concrete, copper, steel, glass, and paint, and, naturally, appliances, lighting fixtures, and other home requirements. We have already witnessed the effects of last year's auto financing restrictions on vehicle sales in China.
In response to Verizon's recent announcement that the company had privately purchased Carlos Slim's 13.7% ownership interest in MCI, Bill Miller of Legg Mason wrote the following letter to the CEO of MCI:
Dear Mr. Capellas, I trust that pursuant to the announcement by Verizon that it has agreed to purchase the shares of MCI held by Carlos Slim, the Board of MCI will insist that all shareholders of MCI be treated equally, and that, at a minimum, any agreement for MCI to be purchased by Verizon have the same present value as that received by Mr. Slim. As I indicated in my letter to the Board last week, events had madeVerizon's $23.50 offer moot; this subsequent development confirms that. There can be no reason for the Board to support an offer to MCI owners that is substantially inferior to what Verizon has just agreed to pay for a non-control block of stock. Shareholders would be outraged if the Board did less than insist that the identical terms be made available to all other owners. That, of course, implies a higher value than the $25.72 cash price Mr. Slim will receive, since he will have the use of that cash shortly, while other MCI owners would have to wait until closing if Verizon offered the same price, including the same effective call option on Verizon's stock. Our rough calculation of the present value of what Verizon agreed to pay Mr. Slim, including the call, is in excessof $27.00. For the Board to continue to insist that the prior offer of $23.50 is sufficient and fair would be unconscionable. If presented with any offer from Verizon that is less than the present value of what they are paying Mr. Slim, we will vote against it. I expect the Board will do its duty on behalf of all owners of MCI. Sincerely, Bill Miller Chief Executive Officer Legg Mason Capital Management
Jeffrey F. Kupfer, executive director of the President's bipartisan tax panel, stated "our mandate is to be revenue-neutral, and we are interpreting that with respect to the president's policy baseline, which does not include a permanent fix to the A.M.T. (Alternative Minimum Tax)." About 3 million Americans will be hit by the AMT in 2005 and an estimated 18 million in 2006. Leonard Burman, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute, stated "the AMT is a high tax increase built into law." I doubt whether anyone would disagree with that opinion.
Warren Buffett: "The CEO who misleads others in publicmay eventually mislead himself in private."
Yesterday, I mentioned the new Shanghai home ownership law. The new law should materially impact the demand for various building materials, such as, lumber, concrete, copper, steel, glass, and paint, and, naturally, appliances, lighting fixtures, and other home requirements. We have already witnessed the effects of last year's auto financing restrictions on vehicle sales in China.
Saturday, April 09, 2005
Warnings
4/9/05 Warnings
Yesterday, Ford stated that, due to higher health care and steel costs, it would earn $900 million less in 2005 than the company predicted a few months ago. In addition, it no longer expects to reach its profit goal for 2006. Meanwhile, USF (the old U.S. Freight) warned that it's earnings would be disappointing. Not surprisingly, the transportation index took it on the chin.
In studying this year's first quarter profit gains, one might consider how much of the results come from price increases for oil, natural gas, coal, steel, and other commodities.
Japan projected that unrealized losses in its forex holdings stand at $110 billion at 3/31/05. Korea incurred a $10 billion loss in its forex holdings in 2004. Meanwhile, foreign currency reserves held in developing countries rose by $670 billion over the period of 2003 and 2004.
In an effort to curb real estate speculation, a new law was passed in Shanghai "requiring home owners to pay off their mortgages before selling their properties."
The news on employment was not good this week. Sears filed a revised layoff announcement and will cut at least 500 workers at its headquarters and not 250 as originally stated. Gillette will close a Duracell plant in Lexington, NC and impact 280 workers. TRW will close its Fremont, Ohio brake rotor plant and put 270 people out of work. First Data's Telecheck subsidiary will reduce its Houston-area workforce by 380 jobs. Across the seas, MG Rover warned that its future was in question. Rover employs 6,000 workers.
Year-to-date, M3 has expanded by 3.6%, while bank credit has expanded at a 15.6% annualized rate. The CRB has risen 7.2% year-to-date, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is up a healthy 18.9%.
Yesterday, Ford stated that, due to higher health care and steel costs, it would earn $900 million less in 2005 than the company predicted a few months ago. In addition, it no longer expects to reach its profit goal for 2006. Meanwhile, USF (the old U.S. Freight) warned that it's earnings would be disappointing. Not surprisingly, the transportation index took it on the chin.
In studying this year's first quarter profit gains, one might consider how much of the results come from price increases for oil, natural gas, coal, steel, and other commodities.
Japan projected that unrealized losses in its forex holdings stand at $110 billion at 3/31/05. Korea incurred a $10 billion loss in its forex holdings in 2004. Meanwhile, foreign currency reserves held in developing countries rose by $670 billion over the period of 2003 and 2004.
In an effort to curb real estate speculation, a new law was passed in Shanghai "requiring home owners to pay off their mortgages before selling their properties."
The news on employment was not good this week. Sears filed a revised layoff announcement and will cut at least 500 workers at its headquarters and not 250 as originally stated. Gillette will close a Duracell plant in Lexington, NC and impact 280 workers. TRW will close its Fremont, Ohio brake rotor plant and put 270 people out of work. First Data's Telecheck subsidiary will reduce its Houston-area workforce by 380 jobs. Across the seas, MG Rover warned that its future was in question. Rover employs 6,000 workers.
Year-to-date, M3 has expanded by 3.6%, while bank credit has expanded at a 15.6% annualized rate. The CRB has risen 7.2% year-to-date, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is up a healthy 18.9%.
Friday, April 08, 2005
Macro And Micro
4/8/05 Macro And Micro
Oil prices are expected to remain above $50 a barrel throughout 2005 and 2006, according to a forecast released Thursday by the statistical arm of the Energy Department.
OPEC March output was 29.89 million b/d, an increase of 440,000 b/d for the month.
Meanwhile, crude declined for the fifth consecutive day, and is approaching $53 per barrel.
According to Foreclosure.com, the number of foreclosed homes put up for sale rose 50% between February and March.
Dell is forecasting revenues of $57 billion this year and $80 billion in 3 to 4 years.
According to Lear Financial, "in China there's just o.1 grams of gold per capita. The India rate, by contrast, is 0.73, and the U.S., 1.41. It's only a matter of time until the rate in China begins to increase.
Pfizer pulled Bextra off the market and will place a warning label on Celebrex. I wonder when they'll place a note on products to tell consumers that drug manufacturing costs can be reduced by 40% or more in India.
U.S. February wholesale inventories increased 0.6%, while sales fell 0.4%, the biggest drop since April 2003.
Natural gas in storage unexpectedly rose by 10 billion cubic feet in the latest week. Analyst were anticipating a decline.
Yesterday, St. Louis Fed President Poole stated policy makers may be required to lift interest rates "more vigorously." That can lead to higher deficits and more dollars being printed.
Firefox has about 30 million users and presently 5.7% of the browser market. It's developer predicts Firefox will capture as much as 15% of the browser market in the next year.
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, premiums for family coverage in employer-sponsored health care plans rose 59% between 2001 and 2004, compared with a 9.7% growth in consumer prices.
Once again, 30-year mortgages dipped below 6%.
According to Cambridge Consumer Credit Index, 59% of Americans plan to spend their tax refunds on everyday purchases or make bill payments, down from 68% in 2004. Interestingly, the percentage of Americans using credit cards to pay taxes jumped from 3% in 2004 to an estimated 11% this year.
Oil prices are expected to remain above $50 a barrel throughout 2005 and 2006, according to a forecast released Thursday by the statistical arm of the Energy Department.
OPEC March output was 29.89 million b/d, an increase of 440,000 b/d for the month.
Meanwhile, crude declined for the fifth consecutive day, and is approaching $53 per barrel.
According to Foreclosure.com, the number of foreclosed homes put up for sale rose 50% between February and March.
Dell is forecasting revenues of $57 billion this year and $80 billion in 3 to 4 years.
According to Lear Financial, "in China there's just o.1 grams of gold per capita. The India rate, by contrast, is 0.73, and the U.S., 1.41. It's only a matter of time until the rate in China begins to increase.
Pfizer pulled Bextra off the market and will place a warning label on Celebrex. I wonder when they'll place a note on products to tell consumers that drug manufacturing costs can be reduced by 40% or more in India.
U.S. February wholesale inventories increased 0.6%, while sales fell 0.4%, the biggest drop since April 2003.
Natural gas in storage unexpectedly rose by 10 billion cubic feet in the latest week. Analyst were anticipating a decline.
Yesterday, St. Louis Fed President Poole stated policy makers may be required to lift interest rates "more vigorously." That can lead to higher deficits and more dollars being printed.
Firefox has about 30 million users and presently 5.7% of the browser market. It's developer predicts Firefox will capture as much as 15% of the browser market in the next year.
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, premiums for family coverage in employer-sponsored health care plans rose 59% between 2001 and 2004, compared with a 9.7% growth in consumer prices.
Once again, 30-year mortgages dipped below 6%.
According to Cambridge Consumer Credit Index, 59% of Americans plan to spend their tax refunds on everyday purchases or make bill payments, down from 68% in 2004. Interestingly, the percentage of Americans using credit cards to pay taxes jumped from 3% in 2004 to an estimated 11% this year.
Thursday, April 07, 2005
Trends For Employment And The Consumer
4/7/05 Trends For Employment And The Consumer
James Duderstadt, President of the University of Michigan and head of Michigan's Roadmap project, stated "Michigan's old manufacturing economy is dying, slowly but surely, putting at risk the welfare of millions of citizens in our state. Thus far, the state has been in denial, assuming our low-skill workforce would remain competitive and our factory-based manufacturing economy would be prosperous indefinitely."
Bridgewater Associates: "44% of all corporate profits in the U.S. come from the financial sector compared with only 10% from the manufacturing sector." In actuality, the 44% is understated. It does not include the profits from GM's and GE's financial sectors, for example.
What is the fastest growing part of our economy? The answer is interest-rate derivatives. Do you think a great many employees are required to trade these derivatives? Additionally, how much employment creation is required for insurance, consumer credit, mortgage financing, or even second-lien loans? You get the picture. Certainly, there are new monthly employees needed in the field of health care and possibly education and construction, but financial professionals are the bread and butter sector for employment growth. They represent the growing core of our service payroll expansion. Should interest rates increase by even 100 basis points, this sector would feel the impact, and so would consumption.
According to S&P's LCD, companies raised $12 billion in second-lien loans in 2004. Through the first quarter of 2005, $5 billion of second-lien loans have been placed.
With rising health care costs and stock and bond markets not providing positive returns so far in 2005, one should not be surprised to see the underfunding of U.S. pension plans rise to record levels this year.
ACT Research reported that orders for heavy-duty trucks in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico were down 25% in March 2005 from year-ago levels. It was the first year-on-year decline since May 2003.
With two months completed in Wal-Mart's April quarter, the company now estimates earnings will come in around the low end of their previous estimate of 56 cents to 58 cents per share. The company stated "given the shift in Easter and the unseasonable weather, we now estimate comparable sales in the U.S. for the April period to be in the 0 to 2 percent range. For the retail quarter, we expect comparable sales to be at the low end of our previous guidance of 3 to 5 percent." For the nine weeks ended 4/1/05, the major change was at SAM's CLUB where same-store sales rose 2.9% compared with 8.1% in the same 9-week period ended 4/2/04.
In the latest week, crude supplies rose by 2.4 million barrels, U.S. gas inventories fell by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate supplies rose by 0.7 million barrels. The crude build was less than Platts was expecting and the gas drawdown was bigger than expected.
Magnetic Specialty of Marietta, Ohion is closing its doors and 110 employees will lose their jobs. Lennox Hearth Products is closing its Burlington, WA plant and moving manufacturing to Mexico. About 70 employees will lose their jobs.
Forest Labs expects its fiscal March 2005 fourth quarter to be lower than the company's previous guidance. They stated "although prescription demand and ex-factory sales have heretofore been relatively consistent on an annual basis, subject to normal quarterly variation, it appears that wholesalers have reduced inventories for both of the company's key products to significantly lower levels during the quarter ended March 31, 2005." Importantly, Lexapro continued to increase its prescription market share during the quarter; however, sales in this quarter of Lexapro approximated $400 million, down from $427 million in the third quarter. The big change was wholesalers carrying inventory of 15 days rather than 21 days. In addition, Namenda's total prescription volume increased in the quarter, but its sales were $93 million, down from $100 million in the prior quarter. The decline was also due to lower wholesaler and chain inventories.
Federated Department Stores expects flat same-store sales for April and JC Penney expects them to be flat to slightly up. Target expects its earnings for the April quarter to meet or exceed expectations.
May crude is trading around $56.69 a barrel.
In the week ending March 26, the number of people receiving unemployment checks rose by 90,000 to 2.69 million; however, the 4-week average of continuing claims dipped by 2,000 to 2.65 million.
James Duderstadt, President of the University of Michigan and head of Michigan's Roadmap project, stated "Michigan's old manufacturing economy is dying, slowly but surely, putting at risk the welfare of millions of citizens in our state. Thus far, the state has been in denial, assuming our low-skill workforce would remain competitive and our factory-based manufacturing economy would be prosperous indefinitely."
Bridgewater Associates: "44% of all corporate profits in the U.S. come from the financial sector compared with only 10% from the manufacturing sector." In actuality, the 44% is understated. It does not include the profits from GM's and GE's financial sectors, for example.
What is the fastest growing part of our economy? The answer is interest-rate derivatives. Do you think a great many employees are required to trade these derivatives? Additionally, how much employment creation is required for insurance, consumer credit, mortgage financing, or even second-lien loans? You get the picture. Certainly, there are new monthly employees needed in the field of health care and possibly education and construction, but financial professionals are the bread and butter sector for employment growth. They represent the growing core of our service payroll expansion. Should interest rates increase by even 100 basis points, this sector would feel the impact, and so would consumption.
According to S&P's LCD, companies raised $12 billion in second-lien loans in 2004. Through the first quarter of 2005, $5 billion of second-lien loans have been placed.
With rising health care costs and stock and bond markets not providing positive returns so far in 2005, one should not be surprised to see the underfunding of U.S. pension plans rise to record levels this year.
ACT Research reported that orders for heavy-duty trucks in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico were down 25% in March 2005 from year-ago levels. It was the first year-on-year decline since May 2003.
With two months completed in Wal-Mart's April quarter, the company now estimates earnings will come in around the low end of their previous estimate of 56 cents to 58 cents per share. The company stated "given the shift in Easter and the unseasonable weather, we now estimate comparable sales in the U.S. for the April period to be in the 0 to 2 percent range. For the retail quarter, we expect comparable sales to be at the low end of our previous guidance of 3 to 5 percent." For the nine weeks ended 4/1/05, the major change was at SAM's CLUB where same-store sales rose 2.9% compared with 8.1% in the same 9-week period ended 4/2/04.
In the latest week, crude supplies rose by 2.4 million barrels, U.S. gas inventories fell by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate supplies rose by 0.7 million barrels. The crude build was less than Platts was expecting and the gas drawdown was bigger than expected.
Magnetic Specialty of Marietta, Ohion is closing its doors and 110 employees will lose their jobs. Lennox Hearth Products is closing its Burlington, WA plant and moving manufacturing to Mexico. About 70 employees will lose their jobs.
Forest Labs expects its fiscal March 2005 fourth quarter to be lower than the company's previous guidance. They stated "although prescription demand and ex-factory sales have heretofore been relatively consistent on an annual basis, subject to normal quarterly variation, it appears that wholesalers have reduced inventories for both of the company's key products to significantly lower levels during the quarter ended March 31, 2005." Importantly, Lexapro continued to increase its prescription market share during the quarter; however, sales in this quarter of Lexapro approximated $400 million, down from $427 million in the third quarter. The big change was wholesalers carrying inventory of 15 days rather than 21 days. In addition, Namenda's total prescription volume increased in the quarter, but its sales were $93 million, down from $100 million in the prior quarter. The decline was also due to lower wholesaler and chain inventories.
Federated Department Stores expects flat same-store sales for April and JC Penney expects them to be flat to slightly up. Target expects its earnings for the April quarter to meet or exceed expectations.
May crude is trading around $56.69 a barrel.
In the week ending March 26, the number of people receiving unemployment checks rose by 90,000 to 2.69 million; however, the 4-week average of continuing claims dipped by 2,000 to 2.65 million.
Wednesday, April 06, 2005
Declining I Feel Good
4/6/05 Declining I Feel Good
According to the latest findings of the Experian-Gallup Credit Index, consumers are feeling less positive about the future, while 63% expect to receive a federal tax refund. Last year, 66% actually received a refund, and 19% paid additional taxes. Currently, the Personal Credit Index is at 82, a sharp drop from last month's score of 100. The decline is due mostly to lower optimism about consumers' future credit situation.
According to the latest Washington Post-ABC News Consumer Comfort survey of 1,000 randomly selected adults, consumer confidence dropped for the second week in a row. The overall index now stands at -17, down 4 points from last week and 10 points in the past month. The last time the index hit -17 was in the summer of 2004.
President Bush speaking on Social Security: "A lot of people in America think there's a trust. But that's not the way it works. There is no trust fund- just IOUs." The real question is whether there is trust in our leaders. Do the leaders substitute IOUs for trust?
Yesterday, the U.S. Commerce Department stated it wanted to reinstate the 7.5% cap on market share for certain Chinese textile imports. China called this U.S. textile protection "unfair." Since January 2001, 381,300 textile and apparel jobs have been lost in the U.S.
According to Gail Fossler, chief economist of The Conference Board, a reduction in U.S. consumption, increased savings, and the adoption of flexible exchange rates in Asia would trigger global instability. I totally disagree with Ms. Fossler. Our country requires less consumption and more savings and global commerce requires flexible exchange rates.
Yesterday, GM announced it would offer an additional $1,000 off all its vehicles.
Ford aims to cut 1,000 white-collar jobs. United Airlines is closing its Kent, WA reservations call center and eliminating 400 jobs.
Crude dipped to $55.78 a barrel.
U.S. chain store sales in the fifth week of March declined 0.7% compared with February's numbers.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas stated that 1st quarter job-cut announcements were up 9.2% year-over-year, and are on track to exceed 1 million for the fifth year in a row. However, planned job reductions fell by 20% in March to 86,396.
In the week ended March 1, mortgage applications activity fell 4.4% compared with the prior week.
MCI decided to accept Verizon's offer because there was more certainty of the deal closing.
In the 1st quarter, Boeing delivered 70 planes, six fewer than the year ago period but the stock traded at its highest price in nearly 4 years. For 2005, the company has estimated it will deliver 320 planes. Good luck.
Malaysia's February trade surplus rose 21.4% year-on-year to $1.87 billion, but fell 6.2% from January. February marked the 88th consecutive monthly trade surplus.
Siebel's 1st quarter results will fall short of estimates due to disappointing license revenue.
Research In Motion's 1st quarter revenue fell short of estimates.
IBM will expense stock options.
Since making a high 4 weeks ago, Mexico's stock market has dropped 13%.
Pfizer, as expected, stated it will cut $4 billion in costs by 2008. Many detail personnel will be dropped from the payroll. Doctors have complained of too many Pfizer sales persons knocking on their office doors. The company stated earnings for 2005 would decline to $2 per share from the prior year's $2.13 but that 2006 would return to double-digit growth. Maybe so, but Zoloft (sales of $3.36 billion), their #3 drug, goes off patent in 2006, and then Norvasc, their #2 drug, off patent in 2007. Realistically, a new trend is forming where big pharma will offer a generic alternative prior to a major drug going off patent. It will be interesting to see how their generic costs compare with generic manufacturers in India.
According to the latest findings of the Experian-Gallup Credit Index, consumers are feeling less positive about the future, while 63% expect to receive a federal tax refund. Last year, 66% actually received a refund, and 19% paid additional taxes. Currently, the Personal Credit Index is at 82, a sharp drop from last month's score of 100. The decline is due mostly to lower optimism about consumers' future credit situation.
According to the latest Washington Post-ABC News Consumer Comfort survey of 1,000 randomly selected adults, consumer confidence dropped for the second week in a row. The overall index now stands at -17, down 4 points from last week and 10 points in the past month. The last time the index hit -17 was in the summer of 2004.
President Bush speaking on Social Security: "A lot of people in America think there's a trust. But that's not the way it works. There is no trust fund- just IOUs." The real question is whether there is trust in our leaders. Do the leaders substitute IOUs for trust?
Yesterday, the U.S. Commerce Department stated it wanted to reinstate the 7.5% cap on market share for certain Chinese textile imports. China called this U.S. textile protection "unfair." Since January 2001, 381,300 textile and apparel jobs have been lost in the U.S.
According to Gail Fossler, chief economist of The Conference Board, a reduction in U.S. consumption, increased savings, and the adoption of flexible exchange rates in Asia would trigger global instability. I totally disagree with Ms. Fossler. Our country requires less consumption and more savings and global commerce requires flexible exchange rates.
Yesterday, GM announced it would offer an additional $1,000 off all its vehicles.
Ford aims to cut 1,000 white-collar jobs. United Airlines is closing its Kent, WA reservations call center and eliminating 400 jobs.
Crude dipped to $55.78 a barrel.
U.S. chain store sales in the fifth week of March declined 0.7% compared with February's numbers.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas stated that 1st quarter job-cut announcements were up 9.2% year-over-year, and are on track to exceed 1 million for the fifth year in a row. However, planned job reductions fell by 20% in March to 86,396.
In the week ended March 1, mortgage applications activity fell 4.4% compared with the prior week.
MCI decided to accept Verizon's offer because there was more certainty of the deal closing.
In the 1st quarter, Boeing delivered 70 planes, six fewer than the year ago period but the stock traded at its highest price in nearly 4 years. For 2005, the company has estimated it will deliver 320 planes. Good luck.
Malaysia's February trade surplus rose 21.4% year-on-year to $1.87 billion, but fell 6.2% from January. February marked the 88th consecutive monthly trade surplus.
Siebel's 1st quarter results will fall short of estimates due to disappointing license revenue.
Research In Motion's 1st quarter revenue fell short of estimates.
IBM will expense stock options.
Since making a high 4 weeks ago, Mexico's stock market has dropped 13%.
Pfizer, as expected, stated it will cut $4 billion in costs by 2008. Many detail personnel will be dropped from the payroll. Doctors have complained of too many Pfizer sales persons knocking on their office doors. The company stated earnings for 2005 would decline to $2 per share from the prior year's $2.13 but that 2006 would return to double-digit growth. Maybe so, but Zoloft (sales of $3.36 billion), their #3 drug, goes off patent in 2006, and then Norvasc, their #2 drug, off patent in 2007. Realistically, a new trend is forming where big pharma will offer a generic alternative prior to a major drug going off patent. It will be interesting to see how their generic costs compare with generic manufacturers in India.
Tuesday, April 05, 2005
Rising And Falling
4/5/05 Rising And Falling
Since 1970, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has delivered total annualized returns of 13.9%. It has risen 26.2% year-to-date or almost 100% higher than the returns over the past three and one-half decades.
From May 1, the EU has proposed an extra 15% duty on U.S. paper, farm goods, textiles, and machinery.
The EIA said that the retail price for gasoline hit another record at $2.22 a gallon. It's up 44 cents from a year ago or $10 a week for those driving 12,000 miles per year.
According to Autodata Corp, for the fifth consecutive month, incentives offered by U.S. automakers continued to decline in March, while those offered by Asia competitors continued to rise.
Unocal has proven reserves of 675 million barrels of crude oil in the Gulf of Mexico, Asia, Africa and Latin America. The company also has large gas fields in Asia, strategically located to serve growing markets in China and Japan. Presently, it is cheaper to buy reserves than to explore for new reserves. In addition, it should be pointed out that 62% of Unocal's output is gas compared with 28% for ChevronTexaco.
With oil at roughly $57 a barrel and silver trading close to $7, the ratio of oil to silver exceeds 8 to 1, an historically high relationship.
The dollar is trading at a 5 1/2 month high to the yen.
The Australian Financial Review stated that BHP Billtn is seeking to increase its iron ore prices by 100%.
Morgan Stanley is seeking to spin off the Discover Card.
With the quarterly reports coming out, it will be interesting to see what impact the record price of crude has had on the airlines, cruise ship companies, truckers, package deliverers, farmers, and petrochemical firms.
Germany's GDP growth rate for 2005 is forecast at 0.8% and its budget deficit is anticipated to approximate 3.3% of GDP. Once again, it will exceed the 3% limit set for the euro countires.
Norway is the world's third largest oil exporter. Their oil minister hopes oil prices will decline a little.
Since last week, three tech companies, Microsemi, Celestica, and Amtel, have announced Colorado layoffs totaling roughly 1,000 employees. The Fort Collins area has been particularly hard hit by the layoffs.
According to the National Council of Textile Organizations, exports by China of apparel products to the U.S. in January and February rose 486% from the same period in 2004. During the same two months this year, 14 textile plants in the U.S. closed.
China's Xinhua News Agency reported that more than 100 cities have inadequate water supplies. A recent survey found that only 47% of water in major rivers is drinkable, while half of all lakes are heavily polluted. In addition, 35% of ground water is undrinkable due to pollution. All the cheap goods and all the cheap labor won't solve China's water problem. Massive water treatment projects will be needed. Without adequate water supplies, China's future as an economic power will be limited.
Mexico is the no. 2 supplier of crude to the U.S. Mexican officials warn that their country might need to import oil in as little as 10 years. Mexico's oil-related revenue currently covers about
one-third of federal spending. Pemex does not have the money or the technology for massive deepwater projects.
Omar Bradley: "Ours is a world of nuclear giants and ethical infants. If we continue to develop our technology without wisdom or prudence, our servant may prove to be our executioner."
What impact will rising interest rates, rising material costs, and rising energy prices have on corporate profit margins, cash flow, and the rate at which earnings are capitalized? What will be the impact on capital expenditures and hiring?
The world consumes 84 million barrels of oil each day. At $57 a barrel, the yearly cost approximates one and three-quarters trillion dollars! Given the cash flow in all the corners of the globe, that expenditure level is, in my view, unsustainable.
Pernod, Fortune Brands in talks to buy Allied Domecq.
In a recent survey conducted by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, a majority of respondents stated they're behind in their retirement savings, yet confident that they'll reach their savings goal by retirement, even if they haven't done a had-core estimate of how much they'll need (over 50% stated they had not.)
Umberto Eco: "What we honor as prudence in our elders is simply panic in action."
Since 1970, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has delivered total annualized returns of 13.9%. It has risen 26.2% year-to-date or almost 100% higher than the returns over the past three and one-half decades.
From May 1, the EU has proposed an extra 15% duty on U.S. paper, farm goods, textiles, and machinery.
The EIA said that the retail price for gasoline hit another record at $2.22 a gallon. It's up 44 cents from a year ago or $10 a week for those driving 12,000 miles per year.
According to Autodata Corp, for the fifth consecutive month, incentives offered by U.S. automakers continued to decline in March, while those offered by Asia competitors continued to rise.
Unocal has proven reserves of 675 million barrels of crude oil in the Gulf of Mexico, Asia, Africa and Latin America. The company also has large gas fields in Asia, strategically located to serve growing markets in China and Japan. Presently, it is cheaper to buy reserves than to explore for new reserves. In addition, it should be pointed out that 62% of Unocal's output is gas compared with 28% for ChevronTexaco.
With oil at roughly $57 a barrel and silver trading close to $7, the ratio of oil to silver exceeds 8 to 1, an historically high relationship.
The dollar is trading at a 5 1/2 month high to the yen.
The Australian Financial Review stated that BHP Billtn is seeking to increase its iron ore prices by 100%.
Morgan Stanley is seeking to spin off the Discover Card.
With the quarterly reports coming out, it will be interesting to see what impact the record price of crude has had on the airlines, cruise ship companies, truckers, package deliverers, farmers, and petrochemical firms.
Germany's GDP growth rate for 2005 is forecast at 0.8% and its budget deficit is anticipated to approximate 3.3% of GDP. Once again, it will exceed the 3% limit set for the euro countires.
Norway is the world's third largest oil exporter. Their oil minister hopes oil prices will decline a little.
Since last week, three tech companies, Microsemi, Celestica, and Amtel, have announced Colorado layoffs totaling roughly 1,000 employees. The Fort Collins area has been particularly hard hit by the layoffs.
According to the National Council of Textile Organizations, exports by China of apparel products to the U.S. in January and February rose 486% from the same period in 2004. During the same two months this year, 14 textile plants in the U.S. closed.
China's Xinhua News Agency reported that more than 100 cities have inadequate water supplies. A recent survey found that only 47% of water in major rivers is drinkable, while half of all lakes are heavily polluted. In addition, 35% of ground water is undrinkable due to pollution. All the cheap goods and all the cheap labor won't solve China's water problem. Massive water treatment projects will be needed. Without adequate water supplies, China's future as an economic power will be limited.
Mexico is the no. 2 supplier of crude to the U.S. Mexican officials warn that their country might need to import oil in as little as 10 years. Mexico's oil-related revenue currently covers about
one-third of federal spending. Pemex does not have the money or the technology for massive deepwater projects.
Omar Bradley: "Ours is a world of nuclear giants and ethical infants. If we continue to develop our technology without wisdom or prudence, our servant may prove to be our executioner."
What impact will rising interest rates, rising material costs, and rising energy prices have on corporate profit margins, cash flow, and the rate at which earnings are capitalized? What will be the impact on capital expenditures and hiring?
The world consumes 84 million barrels of oil each day. At $57 a barrel, the yearly cost approximates one and three-quarters trillion dollars! Given the cash flow in all the corners of the globe, that expenditure level is, in my view, unsustainable.
Pernod, Fortune Brands in talks to buy Allied Domecq.
In a recent survey conducted by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, a majority of respondents stated they're behind in their retirement savings, yet confident that they'll reach their savings goal by retirement, even if they haven't done a had-core estimate of how much they'll need (over 50% stated they had not.)
Umberto Eco: "What we honor as prudence in our elders is simply panic in action."
Monday, April 04, 2005
The Late Innings
4/4/05 The Late Innings
The Major League Baseball season has just begun, but in the game of investment risk, we are in the late innings. Not all ball fields have night lights--especially in the developing countries. As such, in some corners of the world, the game can be called on account of darkness.
China's State Council: "``Excessive growth in housing prices has directly undermined the ability of city residents to improve their living standards, affected financial and social stability, and even influenced the health of the national economy.”
Jim Williams: "China is using 55% of the world's cement."
The EU cut its 2005 growth forecast for the euro zone to 1.6% to 2.1%.
According to Marco Van Akkeren, economist at PMI Mortgage Insurance, a one percentage point increase in interest rates reduces housing affordability by 10%. In addition, in recent years, Akkeren points out that home price gains have far outstripped increases in personal income. In view of the aforementioned, he cautions that, in the next two years, there is a 48% chance of falling house prices in the San-Francisco-Oakland-Fremont area and 53% for San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara.
According to LoanPerformance, 62% of home purchases were financed with interest-only loans in 2004. Van Akkeren observed "it's a clear signal that borrowers are stretching. They can't make mortgage payments on the plain vanilla 30-year or 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, so they expose themselves to more interest rate risk and more risk to price declines." Home buyers are not alone in assuming more interest rate risk. Look at our federal Treasury. They have lowered the average maturity on our outstanding federal debt issues to roughly three years. In so doing, they took advantage of lower interest rates on these shorter maturities rather than locking in rates for 10 to 30 years during this recent record-low interest rate period. That reflects risky short-range thinking, and it was entirely avoidable.
It will serve one well to remember that the overall housing sector is an important component of our GDP as well as recent payroll growth. When housing prices decline, it will additionally impact consumer spending. When our consumer spending generator sputters, it will be heard in China, Japan, Mexico, Canada, and many corners of the earth. Currently, consumer spending is running low on fuel. The back up generator, savings, is almost on empty. The risk is getting higher each and every day of being stranded out in the middle of nowehere in a no cell zone with no help on the way. Don't look to the government. Their finances are worse than yours.
The Major League Baseball season has just begun, but in the game of investment risk, we are in the late innings. Not all ball fields have night lights--especially in the developing countries. As such, in some corners of the world, the game can be called on account of darkness.
China's State Council: "``Excessive growth in housing prices has directly undermined the ability of city residents to improve their living standards, affected financial and social stability, and even influenced the health of the national economy.”
Jim Williams: "China is using 55% of the world's cement."
The EU cut its 2005 growth forecast for the euro zone to 1.6% to 2.1%.
According to Marco Van Akkeren, economist at PMI Mortgage Insurance, a one percentage point increase in interest rates reduces housing affordability by 10%. In addition, in recent years, Akkeren points out that home price gains have far outstripped increases in personal income. In view of the aforementioned, he cautions that, in the next two years, there is a 48% chance of falling house prices in the San-Francisco-Oakland-Fremont area and 53% for San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara.
According to LoanPerformance, 62% of home purchases were financed with interest-only loans in 2004. Van Akkeren observed "it's a clear signal that borrowers are stretching. They can't make mortgage payments on the plain vanilla 30-year or 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, so they expose themselves to more interest rate risk and more risk to price declines." Home buyers are not alone in assuming more interest rate risk. Look at our federal Treasury. They have lowered the average maturity on our outstanding federal debt issues to roughly three years. In so doing, they took advantage of lower interest rates on these shorter maturities rather than locking in rates for 10 to 30 years during this recent record-low interest rate period. That reflects risky short-range thinking, and it was entirely avoidable.
It will serve one well to remember that the overall housing sector is an important component of our GDP as well as recent payroll growth. When housing prices decline, it will additionally impact consumer spending. When our consumer spending generator sputters, it will be heard in China, Japan, Mexico, Canada, and many corners of the earth. Currently, consumer spending is running low on fuel. The back up generator, savings, is almost on empty. The risk is getting higher each and every day of being stranded out in the middle of nowehere in a no cell zone with no help on the way. Don't look to the government. Their finances are worse than yours.
Sunday, April 03, 2005
A Hero For All Seasons
4/3/05 A Hero For All Seasons
Philip James Bailey: "The hero is the world-man, in whose heart One passion stands for all, the most indulged." In a world sadly in need of a hero, the Pope stood tall for 26 years. Will Rogers said that "being a hero is about the shortest-lived profession on earth." Pope John Paul II was the exception.
Pope John Paul II: "The great danger for family life, in the midst of any society whose idols are pleasure, comfort, and independence, lies in the fact that people close their hearts and become selfish."
The greatest danger to our individual and societal independence is to follow in the footsteps of leaders who fail to speak truths that stands the test of time. One must always carefully examine spoken and written words and numbers. That is true in politics, religion, and finance.
Some words are spoken too late and with misinformed descriptions to have relevance. For example, William Poole of the St. Louis Fed stated "the upward thrust to the economy appears quite substantial and the risk of higher inflation over the next 6 months or so seems clearly greater than the risk that inflation will fall below a desirable range." How strong is an economy with a dearth of good-paying jobs? How strong is an economy where debt increases faster than GDP? How strong is an economy with almost no national savings? How strong is an economy when inflation outpaces wages?
Wal-Mart's March same-store sales increased 4.2%. Food sales were, once again, the star performer. Did you see where the company has begun to sell pets online?
Philip James Bailey: "The hero is the world-man, in whose heart One passion stands for all, the most indulged." In a world sadly in need of a hero, the Pope stood tall for 26 years. Will Rogers said that "being a hero is about the shortest-lived profession on earth." Pope John Paul II was the exception.
Pope John Paul II: "The great danger for family life, in the midst of any society whose idols are pleasure, comfort, and independence, lies in the fact that people close their hearts and become selfish."
The greatest danger to our individual and societal independence is to follow in the footsteps of leaders who fail to speak truths that stands the test of time. One must always carefully examine spoken and written words and numbers. That is true in politics, religion, and finance.
Some words are spoken too late and with misinformed descriptions to have relevance. For example, William Poole of the St. Louis Fed stated "the upward thrust to the economy appears quite substantial and the risk of higher inflation over the next 6 months or so seems clearly greater than the risk that inflation will fall below a desirable range." How strong is an economy with a dearth of good-paying jobs? How strong is an economy where debt increases faster than GDP? How strong is an economy with almost no national savings? How strong is an economy when inflation outpaces wages?
Wal-Mart's March same-store sales increased 4.2%. Food sales were, once again, the star performer. Did you see where the company has begun to sell pets online?
A Hero For All Seasons
4/3/05 A Hero For All Seasons
Philip James Bailey: "The hero is the world-man, in whose heart One passion stands for all, the most indulged." In a world sadly in need of a hero, the Pope stood tall for 26 years. Will Rogers said that "being a hero is about the shortest-lived profession on earth." Pope John Paul II was the exception.
Pope John Paul II: "The great danger for family life, in the midst of any society whose idols are pleasure, comfort, and independence, lies in the fact that people close their hearts and become selfish."
The greatest danger to our individual and societal independence is to follow in the footsteps of leaders who fail to speak truths that stands the test of time. One must always carefully examine spoken and written words and numbers. That is true in politics, religion, and finance.
Some words are spoken too late and with misinformed descriptions to have relevance. For example, William Poole of the St. Louis Fed stated "the upward thrust to the economy appears quite substantial and the risk of higher inflation over the next 6 months or so seems clearly greater than the risk that inflation will fall below a desirable range." How strong is an economy with a dearth of good-paying jobs? How strong is an economy where debt increases faster than GDP? How strong is an economy with almost no national savings? How strong is an economy when inflation outpaces wages?
Wal-Mart's March same-store sales increased 4.2%. Food sales were, once again, the star performer. Did you see where the company has begun to sell pets online?
Philip James Bailey: "The hero is the world-man, in whose heart One passion stands for all, the most indulged." In a world sadly in need of a hero, the Pope stood tall for 26 years. Will Rogers said that "being a hero is about the shortest-lived profession on earth." Pope John Paul II was the exception.
Pope John Paul II: "The great danger for family life, in the midst of any society whose idols are pleasure, comfort, and independence, lies in the fact that people close their hearts and become selfish."
The greatest danger to our individual and societal independence is to follow in the footsteps of leaders who fail to speak truths that stands the test of time. One must always carefully examine spoken and written words and numbers. That is true in politics, religion, and finance.
Some words are spoken too late and with misinformed descriptions to have relevance. For example, William Poole of the St. Louis Fed stated "the upward thrust to the economy appears quite substantial and the risk of higher inflation over the next 6 months or so seems clearly greater than the risk that inflation will fall below a desirable range." How strong is an economy with a dearth of good-paying jobs? How strong is an economy where debt increases faster than GDP? How strong is an economy with almost no national savings? How strong is an economy when inflation outpaces wages?
Wal-Mart's March same-store sales increased 4.2%. Food sales were, once again, the star performer. Did you see where the company has begun to sell pets online?
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