3/6/04 Gasping And Spinning
In December 2001, Martha Stewart sold 3,928 shares of ImClone. Yesterday A New York City jury found her guilty on four counts. Chappell Hartridge, a 47 year-old juror in the case, stated “maybe it’s a victory for the little guy who loses money in the markets because of these types of transactions, the people who lose money in 401(K) plans.” Chappell, I hope you are not suggesting that ImClone stock is suitable for such an investment plan. I have a problem with a juror reading about this case during the trial. He stated “you see it on the front pages. You see it on the subway.” I am not condoning insider trading; however, unless I missed it, the government did not file criminal charges against Stewart for insider trading. She faces civil insider-trading charges brought by the SEC. After the verdict was announced, there were gasps, and not just in the courthouse. On the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, those who had speculated on a positive verdict got crushed financially. Beware of the “beyond a reasonable doubt” standard. It may have a different meaning for many people.
John Snow: “The administration is not satisfied with today’s job creation numbers.” John, there weren’t any jobs created without the 20,000 state government workers added to payrolls. I have often wondered how one can add a worker when their state has a budget deficit.
Elaine Chao; “As the president has said many times, we’re not going to rest until every American who wants a job can find one.” Chao gloated that the unemployment rate had not risen. She stated “the unemployment rate of 5.6% continues to be below the averages of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.” Chao, the reason might be that the labor participation rate fell below 66% for the first time in 16 years. When Bush came into office, the labor participation rate was 67.1%. Had the rate been the same 67.1% yesterday, the unemployment rate would be 7.3%. Martha Stewart may go to jail for lying about a stock tip. How many Americans have you harmed by your misleading unemployment statements in our country? Chao, you should be held accountable. A total of 392,000 workers left the labor force in February.
Yesterday, when the February employment numbers were released, many gasps were heard. What do you think it’s like for the 484,000 discouraged workers who dropped out of the labor force? That number increased by 52,000 from the prior month. January’s employment estimate was revised downward by 23,000 jobs. The December numbers were reduced from 112,000 to 97,000 and November’s from 16,000 to 8,000. Are you aware that 22.1% of all the unemployed were idle for 6 months or more in 2003? According to the Economic Policy Institute, this is the worst annual rate in 20 years. We should not forget that Congress allowed the federal extension of state unemployment benefits to expire on December 21. Since that time, approximately 800,000 people have lost their benefits. The EPI study shows that college graduates make up a disproportionate share of the long-term unemployed. While college grads contributed 15.3% of the unemployed, they represented 19.1% of the long-term unemployed. The study stated that, in 48 out of the 50 states, jobs in higher-paying industries are shrinking. From the end of 2001 to the end of 2003, the industries losing jobs paid wages of $16.92 on average, while the industries gaining jobs paid an average of $14.65. The average working week has been reduced to 33.8 hours. According to the Labor Department’s Current Population Survey, Hispanics garnered 64% of the new jobs created in 2003. A Pew Hispanic Center study stated new Hispanic immigrants worked on many home building sites. These jobs put downward pressure on their wages. It should be noted that employment in construction dropped by 24,000 in February.
February marked the 43rd consecutive decline in factory employment. Even the service sector was weak with only a net gain of 46,000 workers. Overall, total employment in February declined to 138.3 million. O. If you read that employment increased in February or over the past six months, write down their name, address, and phone number. We’ll hold them accountable along with Chao and other members of the administration. Please do not forget that 1.7 million people were not counted as unemployed. They had not actively searched for the four weeks preceding yesterday’s report. This number is about the same as the one reported a year earlier. Just as a reminder, a year earlier was a few weeks before we invaded Iraq. Business stunk the house out and businesses were not hiring. We need to remember history. Mark Zandi of Economy.com adds history states that the jobs will appear “but history has not been a very reliable guide through this period.”
House Democrat Whip Deny Hoyer: “George W. Bush ought to be pleased that he doesn’t have to face the American people in Donald Trump’s board room today to defend this anemic employment report because the two words he surely would hear are – ‘You’re fired.’”
Congressman Chaka Fattah (D-PA): “Job growth is the definition of a good economy. Congressional leaders are called to repair the breach since the president has proven himself unwilling or unable… a job summit by congressional leaders would provide confidence that the president’s failure to create jobs is not the final word on real help for real people.” Representing Pennsylvania, Fattah has reason for concern. February was the ninth consecutive monthly decline for nonfarm jobs in his state.
Bush is spending the weekend in Texas, his home state. If I were Bush, I’d be plenty concerned. Yesterday, the Texas Workforce Commission revised unemployment data. In Houston, for example, Houston lost 16,2000 jobs last year instead of the 8,700 job loss originally reported. It gets worse. It gets a lot worse. Between December 2002 and December 2003, the commission had reported a net gain of 45,611 jobs. I guess the adding machine was out of whack. In fact, Texas actually lost 38,889 jobs, a swing of 84,500 jobs. How many other states have made similar mistakes? You know Texas has plenty of company. We are talking about government workers who specialize in data revisions. When all the data has been revised, you can bet there will have been net job losses throughout the U.S. over the past six months. Paul Murphy is CEO of Southwest Bank of Texas. He stated “I think Houston is already doing better than most.” Paul, that statement gives me comfort. Houston has racked up 24 consecutive months of year-over-year monthly job losses.
Under Secretary of the Treasury Roseboro stated the nation’s debt limit may be reached by June. It could have been worse. It might have been May. We should be thankful for little things. George W. gets an A+ for spending. He does it up Texas big time. Kathleen Bostjanic, a senior economist at Merrill Lynch, stated “until the job market improves, spending is at risk.” Kathleen, that’s not the case for George W. He is spending your money.
According to the Consumer Credit Index, over four out of ten Americans are making just minimum payments or no payments on their credit card balances.
According to the Yale School of Management’s opinion poll, currently 95% of individuals and close to 92% of financial institutions believe that the U.S. stock market will rise over the next 12 months. Didn’t George W. go to Yale?
Jack Guynn, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta: “But just as a doctor shouldn’t overmedicate the patient, one should always be sensitive to the potential unintended side effects of maintaining an accommodative policy for too long. Put differently, if my forecast for robust economic growth materializes, then, at some point, a fed funds rate of 1 percent will no longer be the best policy…my own view is that job growth will pick up in coming months, and the unemployment rate will continue to drop.” I agree it will continue to drop as more Americans leave the labor force. Guynn stated “there’s evidence that businesses are feeling more pressure to expand payrolls.” Hospitals are not feeling the pressure. Hospitals lost 5,000 jobs in February.
Friday, March 05, 2004
3/5/04 Consuming And Borrowing
It has been proven that peak spending occurs between the ages of 35 and 54. As our population ages, and it is, the level of spending should begin to lessen. That would be good news. Consumer spending as a percentage of GDP currently stands at 70%+. Only the UK is close at 68%. Italy and Spain are at 60% with Japan and France at 55%.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve reported that households expanded their debt by 10.4% in 2003 to $9.5 trillion. Not to be outdone, the Federal government borrowing expanded by 10.9% to $4.1 trillion, the fastest pace in 21 years. You might check to see whether your boxers or panties have been mortgaged. Of course, there is no reason to be concerned. Bush and Kerry are both fiscal conservatives. The nation’s debt now stands close to $23 trillion. The pundits on Wall Street are hanging on the February jobs report. Most don’t even have an awareness of the individual state employment problems. They are willing to rely on government figures to dictate the direction of their investment dollars. Schmucks could never be barred from Wall Street. Broad and Wall would become a ghost town.
Talking about the employment report, let’s say that 140,000 net new jobs were created in February. They weren’t, but let’s say they were. If the nation’s workforce expands by 140,000+ per month, then creating 140,000 jobs does not produce a change in the workforce. In fact, if those discouraged workers smell that hiring has picked up, they could come out of the woodwork and begin to apply for jobs, thus making the unemployment rate shoot up. Therefore, Bush is in a bad spot. If hiring does not improve, he’s in duck soup. If it does pick up, so will the unemployment rate. All the money in his re-election coffers won’t change that problem.
David Kay had an interview with the Guardian and stated it was time for Bush “to come clean with the American people” about WMD. He observed “when you don’t say you got it wrong, it leads to the general belief that you manipulated the intelligence and so you did it for some other purpose.” Kay stated he now believes any weapons Iraq did possess were destroyed by 1998. In addition, Resolution 1441 was the UN resolution used by the U.S. and the UK to justify the war in Iraq. Attorney General Lord Goldsmith’s advice conceded 1441 did not automatically authorize war.
Vincente Fox will visit President Bush’s Crawford ranch this weekend. They will announce Mexicans with visas will be allowed briefly to visit border areas without the checks that are part of a new border security program. Mexicans with routine border crossing cards would use them for visits that last no longer than 72 hours and require travel of no more than 25 miles into the U.S. In return, Mexico has lifted its ban on U.S. deboned meat from cows under 30 months of age into that country. Next to Japan, Mexico is our largest export market for beef. It’s almost as good a deal as getting a second round draft choice for Terrell Owens.
Antioch is one of the fastest growing areas in California’s Contra Costa County. The Antioch school district is sending notices to 13 elementary school vice principals, 13 computer teachers, 9 music teachers, and 14 physical education instructors that they may be laid off prior to the 2004-2005 school year. Without across-the-board pay cuts and other employee concessions, the Antioch school district will become financially insolvent by the end of next school year. They have a $7 million budget deficit. This year, the district’s general fund budget is about $132 million.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao gave his annual state of the nation address today. He took a cue from Bush and intends to cut taxes and also increase subsidies in rural areas. He stated “solving the problems of agriculture, villages and farmers is one of the most crucial parts of our entire work.” In 2003 China’s GDP grew by 9.1% and he intends to reduce this year’s growth rate to 7%. What impact will that have on Intel and GM? China is presently the world’s sixth largest economy. Wen grasps the significance of the wealth gap between rich and poor and observed “rural incomes have grown too slowly; the task of increasing employment and social security is arduous; development in different regions of the country is not balanced; the income gap is too wide among some members of society; and pressure on resources and the environment is mounting.”
For the first time since the start of the Iraq war, New York crude oil rose above $37 a barrel. In the next few days, record gasoline prices will be found at our nation’s gas stations. Venezuela is one of our four biggest crude oil suppliers. With growing unrest in Venezuela, it is hoped their crude shipments to our shores will not be interrupted.
According to Cutting Edge Information, in the past five years the generic drug industry has grown from $21 billion to $40 billion.
On Sunday, SK Williams plans to permanently close its metal finishing and plating plant in Wauwatosa, Wisconsin and eliminate 38 jobs. This may not qualify for a mass layoff, but it will impact this community and the workers losing their jobs.
Revisiting today’s job report, we should not overlook the revision to January’s increase to 112,000. That number was fictitious, and the revision will simply compound the lunacy. It’s another WMD. They haven’t existed for years.
GM announced a few years back that 2004 would be the last model year for Oldsmobiles. They have already stopped making the Intrigue, Aurora, and Bravada SUV. That only leaves the Alero passenger car and the Silhouette minivan.
Justice Brandeis on privacy: “The right to be left alone. The most comprehensive of rights and the right most valued by civilian men.” Without credible evidence, it would be irrational to play the terror card with every American’s right to privacy.
Intel and GM have one thing in common-- an inventory buildup.
It has been proven that peak spending occurs between the ages of 35 and 54. As our population ages, and it is, the level of spending should begin to lessen. That would be good news. Consumer spending as a percentage of GDP currently stands at 70%+. Only the UK is close at 68%. Italy and Spain are at 60% with Japan and France at 55%.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve reported that households expanded their debt by 10.4% in 2003 to $9.5 trillion. Not to be outdone, the Federal government borrowing expanded by 10.9% to $4.1 trillion, the fastest pace in 21 years. You might check to see whether your boxers or panties have been mortgaged. Of course, there is no reason to be concerned. Bush and Kerry are both fiscal conservatives. The nation’s debt now stands close to $23 trillion. The pundits on Wall Street are hanging on the February jobs report. Most don’t even have an awareness of the individual state employment problems. They are willing to rely on government figures to dictate the direction of their investment dollars. Schmucks could never be barred from Wall Street. Broad and Wall would become a ghost town.
Talking about the employment report, let’s say that 140,000 net new jobs were created in February. They weren’t, but let’s say they were. If the nation’s workforce expands by 140,000+ per month, then creating 140,000 jobs does not produce a change in the workforce. In fact, if those discouraged workers smell that hiring has picked up, they could come out of the woodwork and begin to apply for jobs, thus making the unemployment rate shoot up. Therefore, Bush is in a bad spot. If hiring does not improve, he’s in duck soup. If it does pick up, so will the unemployment rate. All the money in his re-election coffers won’t change that problem.
David Kay had an interview with the Guardian and stated it was time for Bush “to come clean with the American people” about WMD. He observed “when you don’t say you got it wrong, it leads to the general belief that you manipulated the intelligence and so you did it for some other purpose.” Kay stated he now believes any weapons Iraq did possess were destroyed by 1998. In addition, Resolution 1441 was the UN resolution used by the U.S. and the UK to justify the war in Iraq. Attorney General Lord Goldsmith’s advice conceded 1441 did not automatically authorize war.
Vincente Fox will visit President Bush’s Crawford ranch this weekend. They will announce Mexicans with visas will be allowed briefly to visit border areas without the checks that are part of a new border security program. Mexicans with routine border crossing cards would use them for visits that last no longer than 72 hours and require travel of no more than 25 miles into the U.S. In return, Mexico has lifted its ban on U.S. deboned meat from cows under 30 months of age into that country. Next to Japan, Mexico is our largest export market for beef. It’s almost as good a deal as getting a second round draft choice for Terrell Owens.
Antioch is one of the fastest growing areas in California’s Contra Costa County. The Antioch school district is sending notices to 13 elementary school vice principals, 13 computer teachers, 9 music teachers, and 14 physical education instructors that they may be laid off prior to the 2004-2005 school year. Without across-the-board pay cuts and other employee concessions, the Antioch school district will become financially insolvent by the end of next school year. They have a $7 million budget deficit. This year, the district’s general fund budget is about $132 million.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao gave his annual state of the nation address today. He took a cue from Bush and intends to cut taxes and also increase subsidies in rural areas. He stated “solving the problems of agriculture, villages and farmers is one of the most crucial parts of our entire work.” In 2003 China’s GDP grew by 9.1% and he intends to reduce this year’s growth rate to 7%. What impact will that have on Intel and GM? China is presently the world’s sixth largest economy. Wen grasps the significance of the wealth gap between rich and poor and observed “rural incomes have grown too slowly; the task of increasing employment and social security is arduous; development in different regions of the country is not balanced; the income gap is too wide among some members of society; and pressure on resources and the environment is mounting.”
For the first time since the start of the Iraq war, New York crude oil rose above $37 a barrel. In the next few days, record gasoline prices will be found at our nation’s gas stations. Venezuela is one of our four biggest crude oil suppliers. With growing unrest in Venezuela, it is hoped their crude shipments to our shores will not be interrupted.
According to Cutting Edge Information, in the past five years the generic drug industry has grown from $21 billion to $40 billion.
On Sunday, SK Williams plans to permanently close its metal finishing and plating plant in Wauwatosa, Wisconsin and eliminate 38 jobs. This may not qualify for a mass layoff, but it will impact this community and the workers losing their jobs.
Revisiting today’s job report, we should not overlook the revision to January’s increase to 112,000. That number was fictitious, and the revision will simply compound the lunacy. It’s another WMD. They haven’t existed for years.
GM announced a few years back that 2004 would be the last model year for Oldsmobiles. They have already stopped making the Intrigue, Aurora, and Bravada SUV. That only leaves the Alero passenger car and the Silhouette minivan.
Justice Brandeis on privacy: “The right to be left alone. The most comprehensive of rights and the right most valued by civilian men.” Without credible evidence, it would be irrational to play the terror card with every American’s right to privacy.
Intel and GM have one thing in common-- an inventory buildup.
Thursday, March 04, 2004
3/4/04 Nanotubes
President Bush: “We’ve achieved great things over the past three years…a positive vision for creating jobs and promoting opportunity.”
Federal Reserve Beige Book: “Employment has been growing slowly in most Federal Reserve districts.”
New York City’s January unemployment rate rose to 8.4% from December’s 8.1%. Trump must have fired many workers.
The ISM February employment index slipped to 52.7 from 53.4 in January. The index of new orders for non-manufacturing companies fell to 60.3 in February from 64.9 in January. Order backlogs fell to 53 from 53.5. The inventory index fell to 49 from the prior month’s 49.5. The index of prices paid fell to 57.3 from January’s 59.7. It should be noted that the ISM index surveys U.S. service industries and this sector comprises approximately 85% of our GDP.
Costco will open 18 more stores in this fiscal year, down from a previous target of 25 stores.
Chick-fil-A, the Atlanta-based food chain, has begun the most aggressive expansion in company history. They plan on building more than 70 free-standing restaurants in 2004. Currently, the chain operates more than 1,130 restaurants in 37 states and Washington, DC. The company reported 2003 system-wide sales of more than $1.53 billion, an 11.8% rise over its 2002 figures.
The Georgia Department of Labor reported that, in January, the state experienced a loss of 62,800 jobs. Much of the rise in unemployment was due to cutbacks in the retail trade and other service-related industries. As we go from state to state, it is hard to see how the BLS reported an increase of 117,000 jobs in the U.S. in January. Adding up the numbers, I come out with a net loss of jobs. Then again, I count the actual numbers. I’ve made my rounds for February. I’ve gone from state to state. There are about 60 economists projecting an employment gain of 150,000+ jobs for our nation in February. If they count the jobs added by U.S. companies in China, then maybe the number can be reached. The last time I checked China had not merged with the U.S. Only their currency is pegged to ours.
The Business Roundtable’s March 2004 CEO Economic Outlook Survey shows that, on average, CEOs expect real GDP growth to be 3.7% in 2004. A total of 33% of CEOs are projecting their companies will add jobs this year. Forty five percent anticipate no change and twenty two percent foresee a decrease. In other words, a net ten percent are looking to hire more employees in 2004. That doesn’t bode well for those expecting big gains in employment.
The unemployment rate in the euro nations remained at 8.8% in January, the highest since January 2000.
Houston-based Carbon Nanotechnologies Inc. built its first pilot plant three years ago. The plant could produce one pound of nanotubes a year. Six pilot plants later, they are close to making 20 pounds a day. Later this year they will complete a unit capable of continuous operation, making 100 pounds a day. In late 2005, they hope to begin manufacturing at least 1,000 or more pounds per day. The company’s President and CEO stated “this isn’t going to be a $1 million-a-year business. It’s going to be a giant business.” Yesterday, they announced a patent license with NEC and signed a deal with Sumitomo to market its nanotubes in Japan. A carbon nanotube is 100 times stronger than steel, at a fraction of the weight, and has high heat resistance. Near-term applications would be for fuel cells and flat-panel displays. Longer-term applications include ultra-high-speed computing and high-performance materials. I am looking forward to a nanotube powering my laptop and my cell phone continuously for weeks at a time. Many challenges remain. Many scientists believe major advances in this field are at least five years away. I do not share that view. I would be more than pleased to step up to the plate and risk my capital by investing in Carbon Nanotechnologies Inc. The quality and quantity of nanotubes will change the polymer world. That’s good enough for me.
The Consumers Union auto testing center bought approximately 50 new vehicles for testing last year. They reported most of the vehicles were recalled.
President Bush: “We’ve achieved great things over the past three years…a positive vision for creating jobs and promoting opportunity.”
Federal Reserve Beige Book: “Employment has been growing slowly in most Federal Reserve districts.”
New York City’s January unemployment rate rose to 8.4% from December’s 8.1%. Trump must have fired many workers.
The ISM February employment index slipped to 52.7 from 53.4 in January. The index of new orders for non-manufacturing companies fell to 60.3 in February from 64.9 in January. Order backlogs fell to 53 from 53.5. The inventory index fell to 49 from the prior month’s 49.5. The index of prices paid fell to 57.3 from January’s 59.7. It should be noted that the ISM index surveys U.S. service industries and this sector comprises approximately 85% of our GDP.
Costco will open 18 more stores in this fiscal year, down from a previous target of 25 stores.
Chick-fil-A, the Atlanta-based food chain, has begun the most aggressive expansion in company history. They plan on building more than 70 free-standing restaurants in 2004. Currently, the chain operates more than 1,130 restaurants in 37 states and Washington, DC. The company reported 2003 system-wide sales of more than $1.53 billion, an 11.8% rise over its 2002 figures.
The Georgia Department of Labor reported that, in January, the state experienced a loss of 62,800 jobs. Much of the rise in unemployment was due to cutbacks in the retail trade and other service-related industries. As we go from state to state, it is hard to see how the BLS reported an increase of 117,000 jobs in the U.S. in January. Adding up the numbers, I come out with a net loss of jobs. Then again, I count the actual numbers. I’ve made my rounds for February. I’ve gone from state to state. There are about 60 economists projecting an employment gain of 150,000+ jobs for our nation in February. If they count the jobs added by U.S. companies in China, then maybe the number can be reached. The last time I checked China had not merged with the U.S. Only their currency is pegged to ours.
The Business Roundtable’s March 2004 CEO Economic Outlook Survey shows that, on average, CEOs expect real GDP growth to be 3.7% in 2004. A total of 33% of CEOs are projecting their companies will add jobs this year. Forty five percent anticipate no change and twenty two percent foresee a decrease. In other words, a net ten percent are looking to hire more employees in 2004. That doesn’t bode well for those expecting big gains in employment.
The unemployment rate in the euro nations remained at 8.8% in January, the highest since January 2000.
Houston-based Carbon Nanotechnologies Inc. built its first pilot plant three years ago. The plant could produce one pound of nanotubes a year. Six pilot plants later, they are close to making 20 pounds a day. Later this year they will complete a unit capable of continuous operation, making 100 pounds a day. In late 2005, they hope to begin manufacturing at least 1,000 or more pounds per day. The company’s President and CEO stated “this isn’t going to be a $1 million-a-year business. It’s going to be a giant business.” Yesterday, they announced a patent license with NEC and signed a deal with Sumitomo to market its nanotubes in Japan. A carbon nanotube is 100 times stronger than steel, at a fraction of the weight, and has high heat resistance. Near-term applications would be for fuel cells and flat-panel displays. Longer-term applications include ultra-high-speed computing and high-performance materials. I am looking forward to a nanotube powering my laptop and my cell phone continuously for weeks at a time. Many challenges remain. Many scientists believe major advances in this field are at least five years away. I do not share that view. I would be more than pleased to step up to the plate and risk my capital by investing in Carbon Nanotechnologies Inc. The quality and quantity of nanotubes will change the polymer world. That’s good enough for me.
The Consumers Union auto testing center bought approximately 50 new vehicles for testing last year. They reported most of the vehicles were recalled.
Wednesday, March 03, 2004
3/3/04 The Winner Is. The Loser Is.
Toyoto is the landslide victor. They had the best-ever U.S. February sales of 146,783 vehicles, an increase of 17.7% over the year ago month. Their executive vice president and COO issued a word of caution, and stated “rising fuel prices may begin to impact the market if they continue their climb.” Their Lexus division also had record results for the month of February, and recorded sales up 34.1%. Meanwhile, inventories of unsold vehicles for GM, Ford, and Chrysler continue to mount. It should be noted that, according to Edmunds.com, the average difference between MSRP and net price for vehicles sold in January 2004 was $624 less than in July 2003. Incentives for GM, Ford, and Chrysler range from $4,200 to $4,400 per vehicle. The difference in management abilities between Toyota and the U.S. big three is wide, and getting larger all the time.
Warner Music Group announced it will lay off 20% of its workforce or 1,000 jobs. Unifi announced facility closures and downsizing, and reductions of salaried workforce at its headquarters in Greensboro, North Carolina. The company faces excess capacity in the U.S. textile market, rising material costs, and continued pressure from imports, stated its President and CEO. They plan on cutting the company workforce from 4,100 to 3,700. Included will be the closing of the Latamahaw, North Carolina location, which produces air-jet textured polyester products. There is some good news on the hiring front. Applied Materials intends to add 500 workers in 2004.
Bunge North America announced it will temporarily idle production at its soybean processing facility in Destrehan, La., in the early part of March. Its President and CEO stated “unfortunately, the smaller than anticipated U.S. soybean crop in 2003 coupled with rapid U.S. soybean exports have significantly decreased our margins at Destrehan.”
A study by Global Insight found that equipment investment expanded by $229 billion throughout the economy, creating 3-5 million jobs, and producing as much as $300 billion additional GDP annually between 1997 and 2002.
Since the discovery of mad cow disease in Washington in late December, 65 countries have shut their borders to our meat export sales. Gary Smith, a meat scientist from Colorado State University, reports that the USDA’s lead veterinarian compared testing every animal slaughtered to testing every man, woman, and child in the United States for prostate cancer. You can’t expect greater intelligence from a government worker. Most are walking around with a severe case of mental castration.
Speaking in New York yesterday, Greenspan tried to calm the currency markets about the dangers of a broad dollar decline. Someone might have mentioned to him that the euro has recently dropped to an 11-week low and that the yen is trading at a four-month low versus the dollar. When the head of the Fed is so far behind the curve, it gives the impression that he is a mental midget or saying it more gently, a loser. He didn’t help his cause by keeping rates at 1% for so long because, he argued, “this is a very special case that we are dealing with…clearly, we have kept the federal funds rate where it is because we have good reasons.” The markets were concerned with his remark that the 1% rates will eventually have to rise. Any idiot could arrive at that conclusion. Their real concern should be with the words “with good reasons.” The Fed is scared stiff. They have tried everything to stimulate the economy so that employment would rise. In 2002, there were 1,466,823 job-cut announcements. In 2003, the number declined 16% to 1,236,426. However, in December 2003, the number of job-cut announcements slightly exceeded those in the prior year period. Even though the number declined to 77,250 in February 2004, the monthly average remains above 100,000 over the last six months. Something is wrong with the economy when workers are left behind month after month. For those in manufacturing, it's four months away from four years. John Challenger pointed out yesterday that “we’ll see an occasional month here and there with strong jobs growth, but consistent job creation is unlikely.” Ford’s senior economist, Jarlath Costello, stated “the sluggish labor market undermined (consumer) sentiment somewhat in February.” It is well to remember that, the percentage of people in the Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence survey who state jobs are “hard to get”, has remained near the highest level in a decade. The average monthly growth of our nation’s labor force is about 140,000. It’s no wonder that it is taking longer to find a job, any job.
Toyoto is the landslide victor. They had the best-ever U.S. February sales of 146,783 vehicles, an increase of 17.7% over the year ago month. Their executive vice president and COO issued a word of caution, and stated “rising fuel prices may begin to impact the market if they continue their climb.” Their Lexus division also had record results for the month of February, and recorded sales up 34.1%. Meanwhile, inventories of unsold vehicles for GM, Ford, and Chrysler continue to mount. It should be noted that, according to Edmunds.com, the average difference between MSRP and net price for vehicles sold in January 2004 was $624 less than in July 2003. Incentives for GM, Ford, and Chrysler range from $4,200 to $4,400 per vehicle. The difference in management abilities between Toyota and the U.S. big three is wide, and getting larger all the time.
Warner Music Group announced it will lay off 20% of its workforce or 1,000 jobs. Unifi announced facility closures and downsizing, and reductions of salaried workforce at its headquarters in Greensboro, North Carolina. The company faces excess capacity in the U.S. textile market, rising material costs, and continued pressure from imports, stated its President and CEO. They plan on cutting the company workforce from 4,100 to 3,700. Included will be the closing of the Latamahaw, North Carolina location, which produces air-jet textured polyester products. There is some good news on the hiring front. Applied Materials intends to add 500 workers in 2004.
Bunge North America announced it will temporarily idle production at its soybean processing facility in Destrehan, La., in the early part of March. Its President and CEO stated “unfortunately, the smaller than anticipated U.S. soybean crop in 2003 coupled with rapid U.S. soybean exports have significantly decreased our margins at Destrehan.”
A study by Global Insight found that equipment investment expanded by $229 billion throughout the economy, creating 3-5 million jobs, and producing as much as $300 billion additional GDP annually between 1997 and 2002.
Since the discovery of mad cow disease in Washington in late December, 65 countries have shut their borders to our meat export sales. Gary Smith, a meat scientist from Colorado State University, reports that the USDA’s lead veterinarian compared testing every animal slaughtered to testing every man, woman, and child in the United States for prostate cancer. You can’t expect greater intelligence from a government worker. Most are walking around with a severe case of mental castration.
Speaking in New York yesterday, Greenspan tried to calm the currency markets about the dangers of a broad dollar decline. Someone might have mentioned to him that the euro has recently dropped to an 11-week low and that the yen is trading at a four-month low versus the dollar. When the head of the Fed is so far behind the curve, it gives the impression that he is a mental midget or saying it more gently, a loser. He didn’t help his cause by keeping rates at 1% for so long because, he argued, “this is a very special case that we are dealing with…clearly, we have kept the federal funds rate where it is because we have good reasons.” The markets were concerned with his remark that the 1% rates will eventually have to rise. Any idiot could arrive at that conclusion. Their real concern should be with the words “with good reasons.” The Fed is scared stiff. They have tried everything to stimulate the economy so that employment would rise. In 2002, there were 1,466,823 job-cut announcements. In 2003, the number declined 16% to 1,236,426. However, in December 2003, the number of job-cut announcements slightly exceeded those in the prior year period. Even though the number declined to 77,250 in February 2004, the monthly average remains above 100,000 over the last six months. Something is wrong with the economy when workers are left behind month after month. For those in manufacturing, it's four months away from four years. John Challenger pointed out yesterday that “we’ll see an occasional month here and there with strong jobs growth, but consistent job creation is unlikely.” Ford’s senior economist, Jarlath Costello, stated “the sluggish labor market undermined (consumer) sentiment somewhat in February.” It is well to remember that, the percentage of people in the Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence survey who state jobs are “hard to get”, has remained near the highest level in a decade. The average monthly growth of our nation’s labor force is about 140,000. It’s no wonder that it is taking longer to find a job, any job.
Tuesday, March 02, 2004
3/2/04 There Are Still Troubled Times In Ohio
State officials recently released January’s unemployment rate for Ohio. It was the same 6.2% rate as in December. For three months before that, the jobless rate had dipped below the 6% mark. The Ohio Department of Job & Family Services indicated some Ohioans dropped out of the job market. Individuals who aren’t looking for work aren’t factored into the government’s unemployment calculations. As James Newton, chief economist advisor for the Commerce National Bank in Columbus, pointed out, “the discouraged worker effect can make the jobless rate look better than it is. It makes you feel kind of warm and fuzzy for about half a second, then you notice things aren’t that great.” In Ohio, the unemployment rate increased in December largely because there were more holiday job seekers than available jobs, stated Tom Hayes, director of Job & Family Services I Ohio. Some economists in Ohio suggest that, in 2004, businesses will buy equipment with an eye toward efficiency, allowing them to get more work from the same number of workers. Continuing productivity gains can offset the need to hire more workers.
President Bush: “All the signs in our economy…are very strong. And that’s positive for somebody who might be wondering about whether he or she is going to find a job.” Yesterday, Gateway Computer stated it will reduce its workforce to “mid-5,000” from the present 7,400.
North Carolina’s annual unemployment rate was 6.5%, down from 6.7% in 2002, according to the BLS. Only nine states and the District of Columbia had higher unemployment rates. It has been suggested that North Carolina has many discouraged workers.
U.S. manufacturers have experienced 44 straight months of layoffs. The sector has shed almost 3 million jobs since mid-2000. Job cuts are not confined to manufacturing. Guardian Life Insurance, for example, began outsourcing IT to India in March 2001, and now sees annual savings of $12.5 million. According to E-Business Strategies, in general, a company can save at least 50% in operational expenses by moving call-center functions to countries where wages and turnover are lower. Even start-up and venture-capital backed companies are looking at offshore alternatives. John Challenger believes “the cost savings and efficiency gains achieved through outsourcing will in fact free up resources that can be used for innovation and to expand other areas of business, thus creating new opportunities and jobs in America.”
Bush administration officials have projected that the economy would produce 2.6 million jobs this year. The Philadelphia Fed’s survey indicated that private sector economists have a more modest prediction of about 1.1 million new payroll jobs this year. More to the point, however, might be a breakdown of what those new jobs are like. Are they minimum wage, are they full-time, are they hourly, and what will the average income level be from these new jobs? I study investment in capacity expansion and not just investment in new equipment to boost productivity. With capacity utilization remaining around 76%, there is little need to expand or build new plants. When Wal-Mart opens a new store, they hire more people. They open more stores than any other company in the U.S., and that’s why they are the largest private sector employer by a wide margin. When plants are built in China, employees are hired overseas. I don’t see new plants being constructed in Ohio.
The ISM’s latest new orders index declined to 66.4 from 71.1 in January. The production index fell to 63.9 from 71.1. The prices paid index jumped to 81.5 from the prior month’s 75.5.
In the San Francisco Bay Area unleaded gasoline is $2.26 per gallon at the local stations. Do you think that price will cut into consumer spending in other areas, such as, dining out? After adjusting for inflation, the rise in the nation’s consumer spending was 0.1% in January.
Yesterday, Houston’s Mayor White stated his city’s pension funding shortfall may be closer to $1.5 billion over 18 years and not $1 billion as earlier estimated. The city of Houston may have to issue bonds just to cover the rapidly escalating pension costs.
Government subsidized health insurance for the poor covered 42.4 million people in 2003. Medicaid enrollment rose by 1.6 million people or 3.9% last year, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. States pay 39% of Medicaid costs and the federal government 61%.
The savings rate increased to 1.8% in January from the prior month’s 1.4%. This gain is modest and the present savings rate is modest by historical standards; however, one cannot expect the trend of consumption to turn to savings on a dime. It takes time for a trend change. The same is true for hiring. After 44 months of job losses, it’s unrealistic to assume significant improvement would occur in a matter of a few months.
State officials recently released January’s unemployment rate for Ohio. It was the same 6.2% rate as in December. For three months before that, the jobless rate had dipped below the 6% mark. The Ohio Department of Job & Family Services indicated some Ohioans dropped out of the job market. Individuals who aren’t looking for work aren’t factored into the government’s unemployment calculations. As James Newton, chief economist advisor for the Commerce National Bank in Columbus, pointed out, “the discouraged worker effect can make the jobless rate look better than it is. It makes you feel kind of warm and fuzzy for about half a second, then you notice things aren’t that great.” In Ohio, the unemployment rate increased in December largely because there were more holiday job seekers than available jobs, stated Tom Hayes, director of Job & Family Services I Ohio. Some economists in Ohio suggest that, in 2004, businesses will buy equipment with an eye toward efficiency, allowing them to get more work from the same number of workers. Continuing productivity gains can offset the need to hire more workers.
President Bush: “All the signs in our economy…are very strong. And that’s positive for somebody who might be wondering about whether he or she is going to find a job.” Yesterday, Gateway Computer stated it will reduce its workforce to “mid-5,000” from the present 7,400.
North Carolina’s annual unemployment rate was 6.5%, down from 6.7% in 2002, according to the BLS. Only nine states and the District of Columbia had higher unemployment rates. It has been suggested that North Carolina has many discouraged workers.
U.S. manufacturers have experienced 44 straight months of layoffs. The sector has shed almost 3 million jobs since mid-2000. Job cuts are not confined to manufacturing. Guardian Life Insurance, for example, began outsourcing IT to India in March 2001, and now sees annual savings of $12.5 million. According to E-Business Strategies, in general, a company can save at least 50% in operational expenses by moving call-center functions to countries where wages and turnover are lower. Even start-up and venture-capital backed companies are looking at offshore alternatives. John Challenger believes “the cost savings and efficiency gains achieved through outsourcing will in fact free up resources that can be used for innovation and to expand other areas of business, thus creating new opportunities and jobs in America.”
Bush administration officials have projected that the economy would produce 2.6 million jobs this year. The Philadelphia Fed’s survey indicated that private sector economists have a more modest prediction of about 1.1 million new payroll jobs this year. More to the point, however, might be a breakdown of what those new jobs are like. Are they minimum wage, are they full-time, are they hourly, and what will the average income level be from these new jobs? I study investment in capacity expansion and not just investment in new equipment to boost productivity. With capacity utilization remaining around 76%, there is little need to expand or build new plants. When Wal-Mart opens a new store, they hire more people. They open more stores than any other company in the U.S., and that’s why they are the largest private sector employer by a wide margin. When plants are built in China, employees are hired overseas. I don’t see new plants being constructed in Ohio.
The ISM’s latest new orders index declined to 66.4 from 71.1 in January. The production index fell to 63.9 from 71.1. The prices paid index jumped to 81.5 from the prior month’s 75.5.
In the San Francisco Bay Area unleaded gasoline is $2.26 per gallon at the local stations. Do you think that price will cut into consumer spending in other areas, such as, dining out? After adjusting for inflation, the rise in the nation’s consumer spending was 0.1% in January.
Yesterday, Houston’s Mayor White stated his city’s pension funding shortfall may be closer to $1.5 billion over 18 years and not $1 billion as earlier estimated. The city of Houston may have to issue bonds just to cover the rapidly escalating pension costs.
Government subsidized health insurance for the poor covered 42.4 million people in 2003. Medicaid enrollment rose by 1.6 million people or 3.9% last year, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. States pay 39% of Medicaid costs and the federal government 61%.
The savings rate increased to 1.8% in January from the prior month’s 1.4%. This gain is modest and the present savings rate is modest by historical standards; however, one cannot expect the trend of consumption to turn to savings on a dime. It takes time for a trend change. The same is true for hiring. After 44 months of job losses, it’s unrealistic to assume significant improvement would occur in a matter of a few months.
Monday, March 01, 2004
3/1/04 A Position Of Responsibility
Today, for the first time, the EU imposed sanctions on the U.S. There will be an extra 5% duty on selected U.S. goods. There will be a 1% increase in the duties each month through 2005, or until the U.S. replaces the tax breaks ruled illegal by the WTO in 2002. It’s hard to imagine that differences could not have been settled within the last two years. In addition to the problems surrounding the foreign sales corporation provision, there are possible sanctions looming with respect to U.S. antidumping legislation, particularly the Byrd amendment that permits the retention of antidumping proceeds generated from foreign competitors. The overall trade disputes could be easily settled by removing double taxation on U.S. corporations. Companies pay taxes to foreign governments on earnings made in overseas countries through a foreign subsidiary, and the same corporations pay taxes to the U.S. government on earnings made in this nation. In addition, lowering the tax rate of 35% would alleviate the problem and lessen the need to look for tax loopholes. In the end the electorate is at fault. We have placed a do-nothing Congress in a position of power.
While we have trade sanctions imposed, Wal-Mart goes about its business. Today, they paid $300 million to Ahold and purchased Bompreco, a retail chain in northeastern Brazil with 118 units comprised of hypermarkets, supermarkets, and mini markets. This acquisition will meld nicely with the 13 Wal-Mart supercenters, 10 SAM’S CLUBS, and two Wal-Mart Todo Dias currently in Brazil. It gives Wal-Mart Brazil its first stores in the Northeast market. The company started operations in Brazil in May 1995, and they employ 7,000 in that country.
Later this month the Bush administration will put into effect their new overtime laws. This is the fifth time I have posted on this matter. The definition of professionals exempted is expanded to include not only workers with advanced degrees of postgraduate study, but those with special work experience or training, and all employees who “hold a position of responsibility.” Salaried employees who make $65,000 or more would be automatically exempt from overtime pay. Just as the government’s jobless numbers are vastly understated, so is Labor Secretary Chao’s contention that only 644,000 workers nationwide might lose rights to collect overtime for working more than 40 hours a week. It’s wrong for anyone to be deprived of overtime pay. Do you think the nation’s 2.7 million practical nurses, for example, often work more than 40 hours a week? How about fireman and policeman? The Senate and the House voted last year to bar immediate implementation of the new overtime rules, but that language was stripped from a spending bill when the Bush administration objected. I will say it again. Any American worker who votes for Bush’s re-election is undermining his or her own ability to earn overtime pay. When those impacted by the new rules don’t earn time and a half for over 40 hours of weekly work, let’s see how everyone likes it. Bend over pal. You are about to get screwed.
After 75 years of operation, Rockford, Ill.-based Amerock Corp. is closing its factory doors. All of the 450 workers will be cut from the company’s payroll.
Bharat (Barry) Sahgal, director of research at Brean Murray and recently ranked as the number one oil and gas production analyst, stated “demand for oil barrels in Asia is growing at double-digit percentage rates and will exceed that of the developed OECD countries in the near future. Two countries that will emerge in the next twenty five years as major new consumers are India and China whose economies are growing at 7% and 9% respectively.”
Today, for the first time, the EU imposed sanctions on the U.S. There will be an extra 5% duty on selected U.S. goods. There will be a 1% increase in the duties each month through 2005, or until the U.S. replaces the tax breaks ruled illegal by the WTO in 2002. It’s hard to imagine that differences could not have been settled within the last two years. In addition to the problems surrounding the foreign sales corporation provision, there are possible sanctions looming with respect to U.S. antidumping legislation, particularly the Byrd amendment that permits the retention of antidumping proceeds generated from foreign competitors. The overall trade disputes could be easily settled by removing double taxation on U.S. corporations. Companies pay taxes to foreign governments on earnings made in overseas countries through a foreign subsidiary, and the same corporations pay taxes to the U.S. government on earnings made in this nation. In addition, lowering the tax rate of 35% would alleviate the problem and lessen the need to look for tax loopholes. In the end the electorate is at fault. We have placed a do-nothing Congress in a position of power.
While we have trade sanctions imposed, Wal-Mart goes about its business. Today, they paid $300 million to Ahold and purchased Bompreco, a retail chain in northeastern Brazil with 118 units comprised of hypermarkets, supermarkets, and mini markets. This acquisition will meld nicely with the 13 Wal-Mart supercenters, 10 SAM’S CLUBS, and two Wal-Mart Todo Dias currently in Brazil. It gives Wal-Mart Brazil its first stores in the Northeast market. The company started operations in Brazil in May 1995, and they employ 7,000 in that country.
Later this month the Bush administration will put into effect their new overtime laws. This is the fifth time I have posted on this matter. The definition of professionals exempted is expanded to include not only workers with advanced degrees of postgraduate study, but those with special work experience or training, and all employees who “hold a position of responsibility.” Salaried employees who make $65,000 or more would be automatically exempt from overtime pay. Just as the government’s jobless numbers are vastly understated, so is Labor Secretary Chao’s contention that only 644,000 workers nationwide might lose rights to collect overtime for working more than 40 hours a week. It’s wrong for anyone to be deprived of overtime pay. Do you think the nation’s 2.7 million practical nurses, for example, often work more than 40 hours a week? How about fireman and policeman? The Senate and the House voted last year to bar immediate implementation of the new overtime rules, but that language was stripped from a spending bill when the Bush administration objected. I will say it again. Any American worker who votes for Bush’s re-election is undermining his or her own ability to earn overtime pay. When those impacted by the new rules don’t earn time and a half for over 40 hours of weekly work, let’s see how everyone likes it. Bend over pal. You are about to get screwed.
After 75 years of operation, Rockford, Ill.-based Amerock Corp. is closing its factory doors. All of the 450 workers will be cut from the company’s payroll.
Bharat (Barry) Sahgal, director of research at Brean Murray and recently ranked as the number one oil and gas production analyst, stated “demand for oil barrels in Asia is growing at double-digit percentage rates and will exceed that of the developed OECD countries in the near future. Two countries that will emerge in the next twenty five years as major new consumers are India and China whose economies are growing at 7% and 9% respectively.”
Sunday, February 29, 2004
2/29/04 A Leap Year Field Trip
Yesterday was a busy day, and today will be the same. We will visit San Jose, Houston, Chicago, and Kansas, Ohio, and Massachusetts. Since leap year only comes around only once every four years, I thought we should make the most of the time.
We’re heading over to visit with Larry Lisenbee, San Jose’s budget director. The city faces a $85 million deficit. Larry tells us that San Jose taxpayers’ share of retirement costs for police officers and firefighters will increase from $27.8 million annually to $75.6 million over the next three years, largely to compensate for poor performance of public retirement investments. Police and fire unions are demanding the city increase the maximum retirement pay from 85% to 90% of salaries upon retirement, an increase that adds $24 million in costs to San Jose next year. Larry stated “it’s really pretty simple, really. I can’t afford the budget now as it is. If there’s any retirement issues, the questions become what else do we throw overboard to balance it?” Layoffs and cuts to city services are already on the table. Larry goes on to tell us that “retirement costs have become, if you want to look at it this way, the third biggest city department behind police and fire. It is an enormous and growing cost to the city of San Jose.” Police officers and fire fighters eligible to retire after 30 years on the job now collect $77,202 to $125,013 in annual pension payments. With the higher rate the unions seek, officers could retire as early as age 50, with 90% of their pay for the rest of their lives.
Down the road our next visit is with Keitaro Matsuda, a senior economist at the Union Bank of California. He tells us that, from January 2003 to January 2004, Santa Clara County lost more than 25,000 jobs. In the prior 12 months the state’s annual revision of the job data indicated the county lost more than 60,000 jobs. Santa Clara County had 837,700 jobs in January 2004, the fewest since May 1995. Despite losing jobs in the past 12 months, the unemployment rate dropped from a revised 9.1% in January 2003 to 7% a year later, largely the result of workers leaving the labor force. In essence, Keitaro stated “the improvement in the unemployment rate really doesn’t mean anything at all positive.”
I thought it would be productive for us to visit with John Chambers, CEO of Cisco. His company has 18,000 employees in the Silicon Valley, and they make their corporate headquarters in San Jose. The stop is not out of our way. Much has been stated concerning the pickup in hi-tech capital spending and its positive impact on corporate earnings. Analysts have attempted to draw a straight line between increased capital spending, higher revenues, and job creation. Let’s get John’s take on this subject. He stated “I think the jobs will come in waves, based upon the companies returning to profitability and business executives’ comfort level. I think all of us will probably see the majority of job growth over the next decade in smaller to midsize companies in this country. Large companies as well, they’re going to wait until they see their own business do better. And let’s be very, very open. It’s been largely in the last quarter. As business improves I personally think they’ll spend first on productivity and capital and then on hiring. So if you look at it, it’s progressing in the logical sequence. Business is improving, they’re starting to spend on capital although not at the pace we’d like to see, and then after that, hiring should occur. Your danger is this is slower than traditionally has occurred in other economic recoveries, for a combination of reasons.” John tells us Cisco will hire when productivity goals are met. In the downturn, revenue per Cisco employee was $480,000. The goal is for productivity to reach $700,000 per employee. John stated “once we get to 700,000, then we would look to hire.” Cisco is not at that point.
Our next stop is with Houston’s Mayor Bill White. He assumed a major problem. The city pension fund faces a $995 million shortfall because projected payments to employees are $995 million higher than projected assets. The number is a moving target depending on changes in the stock market, employee pay, and other factors. Employees who work 25 years and four months will receive 90% of their annual salary in retirement, plus Social Security payments that will put them well over 100% of their salary. After they die, their spouses will continue to receive the full pension until their deaths. Mayor White stated the city could not afford to keep the current pension system and would be forced to make changes. New employees might get a “defined contribution” such as a 401(K) plan rather than a “defined benefit” like a standard pension, White stated.
Before going to Ohio, we’re stopping in Wichita to meet with John Stewart, CEO of Creekstone Farms, a Kansas meatpacker. He tells us that his company exports 25% of its beef products. His Asian customers have provided John with assurances that they will accept Creekstone’s products if the company tests every carcass. Creekstone has told the USDA it will voluntarily perform 100% testing, and asked to establish a laboratory for BSE testing at its plant. The company has been losing about $80,000 a day since the export ban was placed into effect. John stated Creekstone Farms will soon be forced to layoff between 10 and 15% of its workforce at its Arkansas City slaughter plant, where it employs 750 works. Creekstone Farms is the first U.S. meatpacker to agree to 100% voluntary testing of slaughtered animals. The company kills about 1,000 cattle daily and markets the beef under its Creekstone Farms Premium Black Angus beef brand. Stewart stated “ we understand that our competitors are not particularly happy about this. “The testing will add about $20 to the cost of processing each animal, a cost that will be passed on to customers.
On Tuesday, across the 10 states that hold primaries, 900,000 jobs have been cut since 2001. In three of those states, Ohio, New York, and California, the most jobs have been lost. In Ohio, thousands of manufacturing jobs evaporated. The loss of jobs is the central issue in the Ohio primaries and in the November election. No Republican has ever won a presidential election without carrying Ohio. In the last election Bush won by three percentage points over Al Gore. In listening to the folks on Main Street, we hear a refrain. The people are very cautious. Many have friends who have been unemployed for two years, and they still can’t find a job. They see work going overseas. One former manufacturing manager who lost the job in a corporate restructuring stated “if you look at the core of what he (Bush) has done, he’s totally focused on the companies and not the people.”
Our final stop is in Massachusetts. This state lost 53,000 jobs last year, 10,000 more than previously estimated. The state ended the year with an average jobless rate of 5.8%, up from 5.3% in 2002 and the highest since 1994. Originally it was reported that the state had added a net 1,200 jobs in the first six months of 2003. On Friday, the state Division of Unemployment Assistance reported Massachusetts lost more than 33,000 jobs. In January 2004 the state lost 5,500 jobs, the ninth consecutive month that state employers have cut payrolls. At the same time, the state jobless rate declined to 5.6%. Isn’t that a farce? People leave the labor force and the unemployment rate drops. Alan Clayton-Matthews, an economist and professor of public policy at the University of Massachusetts at Boston, remarked “this recovery has been so disappointing and exceptionally bad in terms of jobs, I’m not willing to say that this represents a job turnaround.” One buyer and purchasing agent who was laid off by a local technology company in November stated “companies are still very cautious about hiring, and anyone who is hiring, is hiring temps. I’ve been through a lot of cycles of ups and downs, but this has been a worse down.”
Over this weekend we have crisscrossed our country. In the coming weeks we shall visit other states and other cities. As they say, there are a million stories in the naked city. We will try to cover some of them. I hope you are getting a clearer picture of life on Main Street. I hope a greater understanding will lead to more successful investing and to enhanced appreciation of some of the problems facing our nation. If the politicians running for elected office avoid “misspeaking” and focus on jobs as the number one priority of the voters, they may stand an improved chance of getting elected. If a candidate paints a picture that does not exist, the voters will recognize that this individual is full of shit.
Yesterday was a busy day, and today will be the same. We will visit San Jose, Houston, Chicago, and Kansas, Ohio, and Massachusetts. Since leap year only comes around only once every four years, I thought we should make the most of the time.
We’re heading over to visit with Larry Lisenbee, San Jose’s budget director. The city faces a $85 million deficit. Larry tells us that San Jose taxpayers’ share of retirement costs for police officers and firefighters will increase from $27.8 million annually to $75.6 million over the next three years, largely to compensate for poor performance of public retirement investments. Police and fire unions are demanding the city increase the maximum retirement pay from 85% to 90% of salaries upon retirement, an increase that adds $24 million in costs to San Jose next year. Larry stated “it’s really pretty simple, really. I can’t afford the budget now as it is. If there’s any retirement issues, the questions become what else do we throw overboard to balance it?” Layoffs and cuts to city services are already on the table. Larry goes on to tell us that “retirement costs have become, if you want to look at it this way, the third biggest city department behind police and fire. It is an enormous and growing cost to the city of San Jose.” Police officers and fire fighters eligible to retire after 30 years on the job now collect $77,202 to $125,013 in annual pension payments. With the higher rate the unions seek, officers could retire as early as age 50, with 90% of their pay for the rest of their lives.
Down the road our next visit is with Keitaro Matsuda, a senior economist at the Union Bank of California. He tells us that, from January 2003 to January 2004, Santa Clara County lost more than 25,000 jobs. In the prior 12 months the state’s annual revision of the job data indicated the county lost more than 60,000 jobs. Santa Clara County had 837,700 jobs in January 2004, the fewest since May 1995. Despite losing jobs in the past 12 months, the unemployment rate dropped from a revised 9.1% in January 2003 to 7% a year later, largely the result of workers leaving the labor force. In essence, Keitaro stated “the improvement in the unemployment rate really doesn’t mean anything at all positive.”
I thought it would be productive for us to visit with John Chambers, CEO of Cisco. His company has 18,000 employees in the Silicon Valley, and they make their corporate headquarters in San Jose. The stop is not out of our way. Much has been stated concerning the pickup in hi-tech capital spending and its positive impact on corporate earnings. Analysts have attempted to draw a straight line between increased capital spending, higher revenues, and job creation. Let’s get John’s take on this subject. He stated “I think the jobs will come in waves, based upon the companies returning to profitability and business executives’ comfort level. I think all of us will probably see the majority of job growth over the next decade in smaller to midsize companies in this country. Large companies as well, they’re going to wait until they see their own business do better. And let’s be very, very open. It’s been largely in the last quarter. As business improves I personally think they’ll spend first on productivity and capital and then on hiring. So if you look at it, it’s progressing in the logical sequence. Business is improving, they’re starting to spend on capital although not at the pace we’d like to see, and then after that, hiring should occur. Your danger is this is slower than traditionally has occurred in other economic recoveries, for a combination of reasons.” John tells us Cisco will hire when productivity goals are met. In the downturn, revenue per Cisco employee was $480,000. The goal is for productivity to reach $700,000 per employee. John stated “once we get to 700,000, then we would look to hire.” Cisco is not at that point.
Our next stop is with Houston’s Mayor Bill White. He assumed a major problem. The city pension fund faces a $995 million shortfall because projected payments to employees are $995 million higher than projected assets. The number is a moving target depending on changes in the stock market, employee pay, and other factors. Employees who work 25 years and four months will receive 90% of their annual salary in retirement, plus Social Security payments that will put them well over 100% of their salary. After they die, their spouses will continue to receive the full pension until their deaths. Mayor White stated the city could not afford to keep the current pension system and would be forced to make changes. New employees might get a “defined contribution” such as a 401(K) plan rather than a “defined benefit” like a standard pension, White stated.
Before going to Ohio, we’re stopping in Wichita to meet with John Stewart, CEO of Creekstone Farms, a Kansas meatpacker. He tells us that his company exports 25% of its beef products. His Asian customers have provided John with assurances that they will accept Creekstone’s products if the company tests every carcass. Creekstone has told the USDA it will voluntarily perform 100% testing, and asked to establish a laboratory for BSE testing at its plant. The company has been losing about $80,000 a day since the export ban was placed into effect. John stated Creekstone Farms will soon be forced to layoff between 10 and 15% of its workforce at its Arkansas City slaughter plant, where it employs 750 works. Creekstone Farms is the first U.S. meatpacker to agree to 100% voluntary testing of slaughtered animals. The company kills about 1,000 cattle daily and markets the beef under its Creekstone Farms Premium Black Angus beef brand. Stewart stated “ we understand that our competitors are not particularly happy about this. “The testing will add about $20 to the cost of processing each animal, a cost that will be passed on to customers.
On Tuesday, across the 10 states that hold primaries, 900,000 jobs have been cut since 2001. In three of those states, Ohio, New York, and California, the most jobs have been lost. In Ohio, thousands of manufacturing jobs evaporated. The loss of jobs is the central issue in the Ohio primaries and in the November election. No Republican has ever won a presidential election without carrying Ohio. In the last election Bush won by three percentage points over Al Gore. In listening to the folks on Main Street, we hear a refrain. The people are very cautious. Many have friends who have been unemployed for two years, and they still can’t find a job. They see work going overseas. One former manufacturing manager who lost the job in a corporate restructuring stated “if you look at the core of what he (Bush) has done, he’s totally focused on the companies and not the people.”
Our final stop is in Massachusetts. This state lost 53,000 jobs last year, 10,000 more than previously estimated. The state ended the year with an average jobless rate of 5.8%, up from 5.3% in 2002 and the highest since 1994. Originally it was reported that the state had added a net 1,200 jobs in the first six months of 2003. On Friday, the state Division of Unemployment Assistance reported Massachusetts lost more than 33,000 jobs. In January 2004 the state lost 5,500 jobs, the ninth consecutive month that state employers have cut payrolls. At the same time, the state jobless rate declined to 5.6%. Isn’t that a farce? People leave the labor force and the unemployment rate drops. Alan Clayton-Matthews, an economist and professor of public policy at the University of Massachusetts at Boston, remarked “this recovery has been so disappointing and exceptionally bad in terms of jobs, I’m not willing to say that this represents a job turnaround.” One buyer and purchasing agent who was laid off by a local technology company in November stated “companies are still very cautious about hiring, and anyone who is hiring, is hiring temps. I’ve been through a lot of cycles of ups and downs, but this has been a worse down.”
Over this weekend we have crisscrossed our country. In the coming weeks we shall visit other states and other cities. As they say, there are a million stories in the naked city. We will try to cover some of them. I hope you are getting a clearer picture of life on Main Street. I hope a greater understanding will lead to more successful investing and to enhanced appreciation of some of the problems facing our nation. If the politicians running for elected office avoid “misspeaking” and focus on jobs as the number one priority of the voters, they may stand an improved chance of getting elected. If a candidate paints a picture that does not exist, the voters will recognize that this individual is full of shit.
Saturday, February 28, 2004
2/28/04 Our Saturday Field Trip
You will notice that we have an addition to today’s group. I invited Allan Greenspan to join us. After listening to his address yesterday at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, I thought a trip to Main Street would do him some good. His optimism was reflected in this statement. “I would say that we could get a pop in employment almost any time…job creation occurs when you no longer can dip into the system of potential productivity advances to substitute for labor…my own judgment is that at some point that is almost certainly going to happen, indeed it is conceivable it may be happening now.” We will be visiting Connecticut, Mississippi, Michigan, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Hawaii. When our field trip is completed, I am confident that Alan will have a different take on the employment landscape.
Watch your step getting off the plane. There’s Steve Finger. He runs Connecticut-based Sikorsky Aircraft. He does not look very happy. Steve tells us he wrote a letter to workers. The Pentagon’s cancellation of the Comanche helicopter program will affect more than 400 jobs at their Bridgeport plant and about 200 at their Stratford, Conn. facility. In addition, another 100 or so workers will lose their jobs in Florida and Alabama. The Army announced that it was dropping the $39 billion program after spending nearly $7 billion and 21 years in development. The money will be spent instead on additional Black Hawk helicopters. This loss is certainly a big blow to Sikorsky, its employees, and particularly, Bridgeport and Stratford.
We’re on our way to Jackson and Carthage, Mississippi. Tyson Foods operates chicken processing plants in those locations. The Jackson plant was built in 1961, and the Carthage facility in 1995. There’s Bill Lovette, the Tyson Group Vice President of Food Service. He tells us that the Jackson plant processes 850,000 birds weekly and Carthage does 1.45 million weekly. The two plants combined employ 2,700 workers. They plan on combining production at Carthage and reducing employment to 1,800. Bill observed “we are also faced with a compelling need to install newer, more automated processing equipment, and it simply makes more business sense to invest that capital in the more modern facility. In the long run, this decision will help us improve the return on invested capital for the chicken segment of our business.” It will be difficult for those 900 workers to find other jobs. This is a tough hiring environment.
We are on our way for a short visit with Jennifer Granholm, Michigan’s Governor. When she heard Alan would be on our field trip, she made herself available. She told us that, on April 27, the governors of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will join her on a visit to Washington, DC in an effort to seek federal help in reversing the loss of manufacturing jobs. Governor Granholm informs us that manufacturing accounted for 23% of Michigan’s gross state product in 2001. Since January 2001, the state’s manufacturing employment has fallen by 15% or 127,000 jobs. This decline has ravaged Michigan’s economy. She does not mention a pop in employment.
I see Jim Doyle, Wisconsin’s Governor. I appreciate his making himself available this Saturday. We no sooner get off the plane and he mentions that this week has been a bad one for Wisconsin workers. It seems that Dean Foods is closing its Madison plant and cutting 89 workers. Believe it or not, Bayside Senior Housing in Bayside is closing and 64 employees will lose their jobs. Trek Bicycle in Waterloo is dropping 80 workers from its payroll. Briggs and Stratton will cut 44 workers from it facility in Milwaukee. To make matters even worse, Perry-Judd’s in Waterloo will close its plant and 650 workers will be affected. It was a bad week for Wisconsin’s Main Street and its workers.
The pilot informs us that sunny skies are expected in Oregon. Amy Vander Vliet, a regional economist for the Oregon Employment Department, is meeting us at the Portland airport. Amy is a straight shooter, and greets us with “I think we’re still seeing a trend of tentative growth. It’s going to be extremely difficult to find a job.” She informs us that January was not a good month for Oregon. The state lost 3,600 jobs and employment dropped to 1,564,800 and the jobless rate climbed to 7.7%. Since June 2003, only 10,000 jobs have been created. Amy informed us that Paul Allen’s (Microsoft co-founder) Oregon Arena Corp., which operates the Rose Garden Arena, home of the Portland Trail Blazers, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Friday. The company had been scheduled to make a $3.2 million interest payment on Monday. Amy provided an example of the tough hiring environment in Oregon. She mentioned that Leticia Estrada has been looking for a job in the accounting field for six months, and that her search has produced nothing but discouragement. There are meager postings at the Oregon employment office in Portland.
We have a long flight to O’ahu and there is some time to discuss Alan’s remarks made yesterday on the Chinese yuan. He stated “the one thing I’m reasonably sure of, however, is that if the value of the Chinese currency does rise, which I think is a fairly reasonable expectation… it is not going to shut down exports from China to the United States, which will then be replaced by U.S. production.” Guo Shuqing, head of China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange, stated “ the inflation rate is rising and the asset bubble is starting to get worrying.” In January his country’s foreign currency reserves increased by $13 billion to $416 billion. Guo observed “the ways to reduce the balance of payments surplus include increasing imports, expanding capital outflows, reducing capital inflows and enhancing the elasticity of the exchange rate.” In sum, the effort will be to enhance the demand for the U.S. dollar and reduce demand for the yuan. That doesn’t mean the peg will be changed today. The wider band will be effectuated some months from now.
Here we are. Marcus Gillespie, the owner and president of Sunrise Construction, is over there. He builds home frames for Shuler Homes Hawaii and others. Marcus informs us that he has 160 union carpenters but is laying off another 20 workers today. He stated “we’ve already laid off 10, and we’re expecting to probably let go another 30 to 40 guys next Friday.” Ron Taketa, financial secretary and business representative for the Hawaii Carpenters Union, the largest of the Islands’ trade unions, is with Marcus. Ron and Marcus tell us about the 22-day-old concrete strike that began on Feb. 6. The issues focus on sick leave and employee contributions to healthcare plans. By the end of next week there won’t be any concrete. Bruce Coppa, president of Pacific Resource Partnership, joins us. He stated “this strike is having a lot of repercussions across the community. At the end of this week, you’re going to start to see some real telltale signs. Morale is an issue, and people’s mortgages and car payments are in jeopardy.” As the strike drags on, the number of layoffs will only increase.
It’s been a busy day. I know that today’s field trip is of no interest to investors on Wall Street. It’s business as usual there. The Investment Company Institute reported yesterday that stock mutual funds received $43.7 billion in new cash last month, and this pushed total fund industry assets to a record $7.5 trillion. The previous record was $7.47 trillion in August 2000. In addition, hybrid funds that own stocks and bonds took in $5.5 billion in January. It must be wonderful to shut out the noise from the millions of unemployed, under employed, and discouraged workers on Main Street. For individuals like Alan Greenspan it has been out of sight and out of mind. Maybe today’s field trip expanded Alan’s vision.
Peter Thiel: “Everyone is asking when the Fed will have to start raising rates. But the real question is: When does the Fed throw in the towel and cut rates all the way to zero? They have one more point to go.”
You will notice that we have an addition to today’s group. I invited Allan Greenspan to join us. After listening to his address yesterday at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, I thought a trip to Main Street would do him some good. His optimism was reflected in this statement. “I would say that we could get a pop in employment almost any time…job creation occurs when you no longer can dip into the system of potential productivity advances to substitute for labor…my own judgment is that at some point that is almost certainly going to happen, indeed it is conceivable it may be happening now.” We will be visiting Connecticut, Mississippi, Michigan, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Hawaii. When our field trip is completed, I am confident that Alan will have a different take on the employment landscape.
Watch your step getting off the plane. There’s Steve Finger. He runs Connecticut-based Sikorsky Aircraft. He does not look very happy. Steve tells us he wrote a letter to workers. The Pentagon’s cancellation of the Comanche helicopter program will affect more than 400 jobs at their Bridgeport plant and about 200 at their Stratford, Conn. facility. In addition, another 100 or so workers will lose their jobs in Florida and Alabama. The Army announced that it was dropping the $39 billion program after spending nearly $7 billion and 21 years in development. The money will be spent instead on additional Black Hawk helicopters. This loss is certainly a big blow to Sikorsky, its employees, and particularly, Bridgeport and Stratford.
We’re on our way to Jackson and Carthage, Mississippi. Tyson Foods operates chicken processing plants in those locations. The Jackson plant was built in 1961, and the Carthage facility in 1995. There’s Bill Lovette, the Tyson Group Vice President of Food Service. He tells us that the Jackson plant processes 850,000 birds weekly and Carthage does 1.45 million weekly. The two plants combined employ 2,700 workers. They plan on combining production at Carthage and reducing employment to 1,800. Bill observed “we are also faced with a compelling need to install newer, more automated processing equipment, and it simply makes more business sense to invest that capital in the more modern facility. In the long run, this decision will help us improve the return on invested capital for the chicken segment of our business.” It will be difficult for those 900 workers to find other jobs. This is a tough hiring environment.
We are on our way for a short visit with Jennifer Granholm, Michigan’s Governor. When she heard Alan would be on our field trip, she made herself available. She told us that, on April 27, the governors of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will join her on a visit to Washington, DC in an effort to seek federal help in reversing the loss of manufacturing jobs. Governor Granholm informs us that manufacturing accounted for 23% of Michigan’s gross state product in 2001. Since January 2001, the state’s manufacturing employment has fallen by 15% or 127,000 jobs. This decline has ravaged Michigan’s economy. She does not mention a pop in employment.
I see Jim Doyle, Wisconsin’s Governor. I appreciate his making himself available this Saturday. We no sooner get off the plane and he mentions that this week has been a bad one for Wisconsin workers. It seems that Dean Foods is closing its Madison plant and cutting 89 workers. Believe it or not, Bayside Senior Housing in Bayside is closing and 64 employees will lose their jobs. Trek Bicycle in Waterloo is dropping 80 workers from its payroll. Briggs and Stratton will cut 44 workers from it facility in Milwaukee. To make matters even worse, Perry-Judd’s in Waterloo will close its plant and 650 workers will be affected. It was a bad week for Wisconsin’s Main Street and its workers.
The pilot informs us that sunny skies are expected in Oregon. Amy Vander Vliet, a regional economist for the Oregon Employment Department, is meeting us at the Portland airport. Amy is a straight shooter, and greets us with “I think we’re still seeing a trend of tentative growth. It’s going to be extremely difficult to find a job.” She informs us that January was not a good month for Oregon. The state lost 3,600 jobs and employment dropped to 1,564,800 and the jobless rate climbed to 7.7%. Since June 2003, only 10,000 jobs have been created. Amy informed us that Paul Allen’s (Microsoft co-founder) Oregon Arena Corp., which operates the Rose Garden Arena, home of the Portland Trail Blazers, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Friday. The company had been scheduled to make a $3.2 million interest payment on Monday. Amy provided an example of the tough hiring environment in Oregon. She mentioned that Leticia Estrada has been looking for a job in the accounting field for six months, and that her search has produced nothing but discouragement. There are meager postings at the Oregon employment office in Portland.
We have a long flight to O’ahu and there is some time to discuss Alan’s remarks made yesterday on the Chinese yuan. He stated “the one thing I’m reasonably sure of, however, is that if the value of the Chinese currency does rise, which I think is a fairly reasonable expectation… it is not going to shut down exports from China to the United States, which will then be replaced by U.S. production.” Guo Shuqing, head of China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange, stated “ the inflation rate is rising and the asset bubble is starting to get worrying.” In January his country’s foreign currency reserves increased by $13 billion to $416 billion. Guo observed “the ways to reduce the balance of payments surplus include increasing imports, expanding capital outflows, reducing capital inflows and enhancing the elasticity of the exchange rate.” In sum, the effort will be to enhance the demand for the U.S. dollar and reduce demand for the yuan. That doesn’t mean the peg will be changed today. The wider band will be effectuated some months from now.
Here we are. Marcus Gillespie, the owner and president of Sunrise Construction, is over there. He builds home frames for Shuler Homes Hawaii and others. Marcus informs us that he has 160 union carpenters but is laying off another 20 workers today. He stated “we’ve already laid off 10, and we’re expecting to probably let go another 30 to 40 guys next Friday.” Ron Taketa, financial secretary and business representative for the Hawaii Carpenters Union, the largest of the Islands’ trade unions, is with Marcus. Ron and Marcus tell us about the 22-day-old concrete strike that began on Feb. 6. The issues focus on sick leave and employee contributions to healthcare plans. By the end of next week there won’t be any concrete. Bruce Coppa, president of Pacific Resource Partnership, joins us. He stated “this strike is having a lot of repercussions across the community. At the end of this week, you’re going to start to see some real telltale signs. Morale is an issue, and people’s mortgages and car payments are in jeopardy.” As the strike drags on, the number of layoffs will only increase.
It’s been a busy day. I know that today’s field trip is of no interest to investors on Wall Street. It’s business as usual there. The Investment Company Institute reported yesterday that stock mutual funds received $43.7 billion in new cash last month, and this pushed total fund industry assets to a record $7.5 trillion. The previous record was $7.47 trillion in August 2000. In addition, hybrid funds that own stocks and bonds took in $5.5 billion in January. It must be wonderful to shut out the noise from the millions of unemployed, under employed, and discouraged workers on Main Street. For individuals like Alan Greenspan it has been out of sight and out of mind. Maybe today’s field trip expanded Alan’s vision.
Peter Thiel: “Everyone is asking when the Fed will have to start raising rates. But the real question is: When does the Fed throw in the towel and cut rates all the way to zero? They have one more point to go.”
Friday, February 27, 2004
2/27/04 Employee Healthcare Benefits
United Food and Commercial Workers International: “If the supermarket giants—profitable, growing Fortune 50 mega-corporations—can launch an attack on health care benefits, then every employer is sure to follow….in one year, over 2 million lost health insurance. That’s over 6,000 workers a day…no worker should ever again be forced to choose between a paycheck and health care benefits. No worker should ever be forced into the streets for five months to protect health care for their families.” The 70,000 UFCW members will vote on the proposed agreement with Ralph’s, Vons, Albertson’s, Kroger, and Safeway tomorrow and Sunday. The strike is estimated to have cost the companies $1 billion in lost sales. About 900 stores were affected. The major beneficiaries have been Costco, Whole Foods, and Wal-Mart. Before anyone gets too excited about the ratification of this agreement, another problem is looming in the coming months, and it’s much bigger. There are upcoming negotiations from Sacramento to Washington, DC with respect to United Food and Commercial Worker union contracts affecting 250,000 employees. These contracts expire in coming months. Similar issues are at stake—proposed deep cuts to healthcare benefits and a proposed two-tier wage system that would pay new hires less. Ron Lind, spokesman for the coalition of eight unions, stated “we are willing to engage in health care cost containment. But it is one thing to make changes with a scalpel. It’s another to use a chainsaw.” The fireworks have not ended.
The Conference Board’s Help-wanted Advertising Index rose one percentage point in January to 38; however, the Index stood at 41 one year ago. The job market is tight. Yesterday, the new $200 million Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood, Florida began a three-day job fair. The Seminoles are hoping to find 1,800 employees in time for a late-April opening. Some applicants waited in line for five hours. The lines snaked around the parking lot. About 2,500 people showed up early in the morning for these jobs. One applicant stated “I would work right now just for the benefits. Health insurance is out of control.”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics was created 120 years ago. Its first commissioner, Carroll Wright, stated “the incumbent has soon realized the sacredness of his office and he has learned to tell a statistical lie is the most harmful thing a man can do.” We sure could use Wright’s appreciation for right and wrong today. We have an Administration grounded in statistical “revisions.” I said that so nicely. It’s still early.
Yesterday Morningstar Foods announced that it will cease operations at its plant in Madison, Wisconsin. The closure will affect approximately 100 employees.
According to a new study by Bain & Co. and released yesterday, nearly 40% of companies in California are planning to move jobs out of state. All of the senior executives interviewed see the business climate in California unfavorably. These companies employ nearly 500,000 workers in California. Dick Kovacevich, chairman and CEO of Wells Fargo, stated “business as usual is not working in California. The state must…improve the competitiveness and keep high-value jobs in the state. If nothing changes, things are likely to get worse.” I guess we can expect a lot of homes to go up for sale. The tight housing market should change dramatically as businesses move jobs out of California.
GE and Honda formed an alliance to enter the microjet market. Building jet engines for small, low-cost jet aircraft makes a good deal of sense. With lower operating costs and more flexibility in landing at smaller airports, there should be a growing demand for such aircraft.
The Sept. 11 Commission is scheduled to finish work on May 27, but its members are seeking at least a two-month extension. They have cited repeated delays because of disputes with the Bush administration over access to witnesses and documents. House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill, remains opposed to providing the extension and does not intend to bring any legislation to the floor. Maybe House members should consider growing a set of cojones and standing up to the Speaker. Hastert will end up looking like another Aristede because a compromise shall be reached and a new July 26 deadline set.
In the week ended Feb. 21, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time rose 6,000 to 350,000. The four-week average rose 2,750 to 354,750, the fourth consecutive increase and the highest level since December of last year. Bob Mellman, J.P. Morgan economist, stated “I think hiring is slow, but all signs are that hiring is coming.” Howard Stern could probably have an appropriate comment on “coming.” Maybe Mellman should have stood on that five-hour line in Florida hoping to get a job at the new casino. The applicants came, the line moved slowly, and the pace of hiring didn’t set the world on fire. As an alternative, Mellman could stand on the picket lines the next time the UFCW workers go on strike. Better yet, Mellman can join the BLS and revise the employment numbers. One better, J.P. Morgan could consider replacing him with someone who reports on the facts. As a reminder, this is a no bullshit zone.
Lastly, we can look forward to today’s revisions on the fourth quarter GDP growth. It will be lowered. The trade gap was worse than expected, construction was worse than expected, inventories were worse than expected, etc. etc. But, economists will be excited about the prospects for growth in 2004. It won’t be slow. It will come quickly. Where is Carroll Wright?
United Food and Commercial Workers International: “If the supermarket giants—profitable, growing Fortune 50 mega-corporations—can launch an attack on health care benefits, then every employer is sure to follow….in one year, over 2 million lost health insurance. That’s over 6,000 workers a day…no worker should ever again be forced to choose between a paycheck and health care benefits. No worker should ever be forced into the streets for five months to protect health care for their families.” The 70,000 UFCW members will vote on the proposed agreement with Ralph’s, Vons, Albertson’s, Kroger, and Safeway tomorrow and Sunday. The strike is estimated to have cost the companies $1 billion in lost sales. About 900 stores were affected. The major beneficiaries have been Costco, Whole Foods, and Wal-Mart. Before anyone gets too excited about the ratification of this agreement, another problem is looming in the coming months, and it’s much bigger. There are upcoming negotiations from Sacramento to Washington, DC with respect to United Food and Commercial Worker union contracts affecting 250,000 employees. These contracts expire in coming months. Similar issues are at stake—proposed deep cuts to healthcare benefits and a proposed two-tier wage system that would pay new hires less. Ron Lind, spokesman for the coalition of eight unions, stated “we are willing to engage in health care cost containment. But it is one thing to make changes with a scalpel. It’s another to use a chainsaw.” The fireworks have not ended.
The Conference Board’s Help-wanted Advertising Index rose one percentage point in January to 38; however, the Index stood at 41 one year ago. The job market is tight. Yesterday, the new $200 million Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood, Florida began a three-day job fair. The Seminoles are hoping to find 1,800 employees in time for a late-April opening. Some applicants waited in line for five hours. The lines snaked around the parking lot. About 2,500 people showed up early in the morning for these jobs. One applicant stated “I would work right now just for the benefits. Health insurance is out of control.”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics was created 120 years ago. Its first commissioner, Carroll Wright, stated “the incumbent has soon realized the sacredness of his office and he has learned to tell a statistical lie is the most harmful thing a man can do.” We sure could use Wright’s appreciation for right and wrong today. We have an Administration grounded in statistical “revisions.” I said that so nicely. It’s still early.
Yesterday Morningstar Foods announced that it will cease operations at its plant in Madison, Wisconsin. The closure will affect approximately 100 employees.
According to a new study by Bain & Co. and released yesterday, nearly 40% of companies in California are planning to move jobs out of state. All of the senior executives interviewed see the business climate in California unfavorably. These companies employ nearly 500,000 workers in California. Dick Kovacevich, chairman and CEO of Wells Fargo, stated “business as usual is not working in California. The state must…improve the competitiveness and keep high-value jobs in the state. If nothing changes, things are likely to get worse.” I guess we can expect a lot of homes to go up for sale. The tight housing market should change dramatically as businesses move jobs out of California.
GE and Honda formed an alliance to enter the microjet market. Building jet engines for small, low-cost jet aircraft makes a good deal of sense. With lower operating costs and more flexibility in landing at smaller airports, there should be a growing demand for such aircraft.
The Sept. 11 Commission is scheduled to finish work on May 27, but its members are seeking at least a two-month extension. They have cited repeated delays because of disputes with the Bush administration over access to witnesses and documents. House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill, remains opposed to providing the extension and does not intend to bring any legislation to the floor. Maybe House members should consider growing a set of cojones and standing up to the Speaker. Hastert will end up looking like another Aristede because a compromise shall be reached and a new July 26 deadline set.
In the week ended Feb. 21, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time rose 6,000 to 350,000. The four-week average rose 2,750 to 354,750, the fourth consecutive increase and the highest level since December of last year. Bob Mellman, J.P. Morgan economist, stated “I think hiring is slow, but all signs are that hiring is coming.” Howard Stern could probably have an appropriate comment on “coming.” Maybe Mellman should have stood on that five-hour line in Florida hoping to get a job at the new casino. The applicants came, the line moved slowly, and the pace of hiring didn’t set the world on fire. As an alternative, Mellman could stand on the picket lines the next time the UFCW workers go on strike. Better yet, Mellman can join the BLS and revise the employment numbers. One better, J.P. Morgan could consider replacing him with someone who reports on the facts. As a reminder, this is a no bullshit zone.
Lastly, we can look forward to today’s revisions on the fourth quarter GDP growth. It will be lowered. The trade gap was worse than expected, construction was worse than expected, inventories were worse than expected, etc. etc. But, economists will be excited about the prospects for growth in 2004. It won’t be slow. It will come quickly. Where is Carroll Wright?
Thursday, February 26, 2004
2/26/04 Mass Layoffs, Rollbacks, Growth Warnings
Starbucks Chairman Howard Schultz: “The current high level of revenue performance is not sustainable.”
Microsoft CFO John Connors: “We won’t have the growth we’ve had in the past years in revenue and profit, but we should be able to deliver a decent year in terms of growth.”
Wal-Mart’s new strategy: “Rollbacks- to save you even more.” Before you enter a Wal-Mart store, you will notice that sign all over the windows. When you enter the store and see the aisles, you will see signs for rollbacks all over the store. An item that sold for $12 might now be $7. Wal-Mart is on a roll. They have their corporate heel on the windpipe of their competitors. We’re entering a new round of competition. Consumers will pay lower prices than ever before at Wal-Mart. Suppliers will receive lower prices for their products; however, as Wal-Mart grows, their volume will grow as a supplier and their profit margins will improve as their factory throughput increases and their efficiency is enhanced. Many of the less efficient will fall by the wayside. That will be true of suppliers and competitors. The rollback strategy will help in placing a lid on the CPI. Soon, Wal-Mart will account for 10% of retail sales in the U.S. (excluding auto parts and supplies).
In January, U.S. sales of previously owned houses fell 5.2% to an annual pace of approximately 6 million homes. However, in California, the median price of an existing home increased 20.7% and sales increased 5.3% compared to the same period a year ago. In January, in California there was only a two months supply of houses for sale.
According to a study by the Keystone Group of Los Angeles, over 261,000 manufacturing jobs and $98 billion in gross sales of California-manufactured products disappeared in the three-year period between 1999 and 2002. Manufacturing jobs in California pay almost 50% more than the average of all jobs in the state. The study indicated that manufacturing jobs have a pronounced “multiplier effect” in that they create jobs in other sectors of the economy, at a rate at least twice that of the trickle-down from the retail industry. I mention this study in light of the January mass layoff numbers released yesterday by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. In January 2004 there were 2,428 mass layoffs by U.S. employers (each action must involve the layoff of at least 50 people from a single establishment). The number of workers involved totaled 239,454 compared with the year ago period of 2,315 mass layoffs affecting 225,430 people. This is but one more indication that hiring improvement, when it does take place, has been limited in scope.
Tomorrow there will be a mass layoff at Maytag’s washer and dryer manufacturing plant in Newton, Iowa. A total of 170 production workers will be affected. Management stated that the layoffs are coincidental to the Samsung agreement announced Tuesday. Maytag and Samsung reached an agreement to build a new line of high-efficiency, front-load laundry products in South Korea under the Maytag and Amana brand names. Maytag maintains tomorrow’s layoffs are not a result of the agreement with Samsung. The company will close its refrigerator factory in Galesburg, Illinois later this year and move some of that production to Mexico. Already about 400 Maytag employees have lost their jobs in cuts over the past year. Maytag’s contract with the UAW expires in June and with the International Association of Machinists Local 1526 in September.
Some time today there should be an agreement reached between the unions covering the 70,000 supermarket workers and their Southern California employers. The strike has been going on for about 5 months.
Richwood Meat Co. of Merced, California is recalling 90,000 pounds of beef distributed to military bases in Asia and retail stores in western states because of fears the meat could be contaminated with a deadly bacteria. A Japanese laboratory found E.coli bacteria on some of the meat. When a foreign country finds your product contaminated, it’s a lousy reflection on the safety inspections in our country. However, this is nothing new. Business is usual under our USDA.
Alan Greenspan: “Progress in creating jobs has been limited.”
Alan Greenspan: “The degree of uncertainty about whether future resources will be adequate to meet our current statutory obligations o the coming generations of retirees is daunting.”
According to Reis Inc. of New York, the apartment vacancy rate of 6.9% is the highest in 15 years.
Starbucks Chairman Howard Schultz: “The current high level of revenue performance is not sustainable.”
Microsoft CFO John Connors: “We won’t have the growth we’ve had in the past years in revenue and profit, but we should be able to deliver a decent year in terms of growth.”
Wal-Mart’s new strategy: “Rollbacks- to save you even more.” Before you enter a Wal-Mart store, you will notice that sign all over the windows. When you enter the store and see the aisles, you will see signs for rollbacks all over the store. An item that sold for $12 might now be $7. Wal-Mart is on a roll. They have their corporate heel on the windpipe of their competitors. We’re entering a new round of competition. Consumers will pay lower prices than ever before at Wal-Mart. Suppliers will receive lower prices for their products; however, as Wal-Mart grows, their volume will grow as a supplier and their profit margins will improve as their factory throughput increases and their efficiency is enhanced. Many of the less efficient will fall by the wayside. That will be true of suppliers and competitors. The rollback strategy will help in placing a lid on the CPI. Soon, Wal-Mart will account for 10% of retail sales in the U.S. (excluding auto parts and supplies).
In January, U.S. sales of previously owned houses fell 5.2% to an annual pace of approximately 6 million homes. However, in California, the median price of an existing home increased 20.7% and sales increased 5.3% compared to the same period a year ago. In January, in California there was only a two months supply of houses for sale.
According to a study by the Keystone Group of Los Angeles, over 261,000 manufacturing jobs and $98 billion in gross sales of California-manufactured products disappeared in the three-year period between 1999 and 2002. Manufacturing jobs in California pay almost 50% more than the average of all jobs in the state. The study indicated that manufacturing jobs have a pronounced “multiplier effect” in that they create jobs in other sectors of the economy, at a rate at least twice that of the trickle-down from the retail industry. I mention this study in light of the January mass layoff numbers released yesterday by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. In January 2004 there were 2,428 mass layoffs by U.S. employers (each action must involve the layoff of at least 50 people from a single establishment). The number of workers involved totaled 239,454 compared with the year ago period of 2,315 mass layoffs affecting 225,430 people. This is but one more indication that hiring improvement, when it does take place, has been limited in scope.
Tomorrow there will be a mass layoff at Maytag’s washer and dryer manufacturing plant in Newton, Iowa. A total of 170 production workers will be affected. Management stated that the layoffs are coincidental to the Samsung agreement announced Tuesday. Maytag and Samsung reached an agreement to build a new line of high-efficiency, front-load laundry products in South Korea under the Maytag and Amana brand names. Maytag maintains tomorrow’s layoffs are not a result of the agreement with Samsung. The company will close its refrigerator factory in Galesburg, Illinois later this year and move some of that production to Mexico. Already about 400 Maytag employees have lost their jobs in cuts over the past year. Maytag’s contract with the UAW expires in June and with the International Association of Machinists Local 1526 in September.
Some time today there should be an agreement reached between the unions covering the 70,000 supermarket workers and their Southern California employers. The strike has been going on for about 5 months.
Richwood Meat Co. of Merced, California is recalling 90,000 pounds of beef distributed to military bases in Asia and retail stores in western states because of fears the meat could be contaminated with a deadly bacteria. A Japanese laboratory found E.coli bacteria on some of the meat. When a foreign country finds your product contaminated, it’s a lousy reflection on the safety inspections in our country. However, this is nothing new. Business is usual under our USDA.
Alan Greenspan: “Progress in creating jobs has been limited.”
Alan Greenspan: “The degree of uncertainty about whether future resources will be adequate to meet our current statutory obligations o the coming generations of retirees is daunting.”
According to Reis Inc. of New York, the apartment vacancy rate of 6.9% is the highest in 15 years.
Wednesday, February 25, 2004
2/25/04 Consumer Confidence And Jobs
Edward Gramlich: U.S. Federal Reserve Governor talking about the February’s drop in U.S. consumer confidence: “This is a modest drop. There’s always some volatility. It’s a fluctuation and confidence has come back from last year.”
Gramlich is correct in stating that confidence has come back from last year. Last February 25 was less than a month before we invaded Iraq. At that time consumer confidence had plummeted to 64, a drop of almost 15 points from the prior month. It was the lowest reading since October 1993. A year later the index has risen to 87. Although there was a drop of 9 points from the previous month, over the past year considerable improvement in the overall consumer confidence index has taken place.
Can a Fed Governor be half correct? The answer is yes in the case of Gramlich. Both he and Wall Street missed the most important point. In order to have a proper assessment of consumer confidence, today it is necessary to step back in time to one year ago. The answer can be found in confidence concerning jobs. This is very important. Despite the improvement in the overall index from 64 to 87 over the past 12 months, the percentage who saw jobs as hard to get had actually increased from roughly 31 percent to 32 percent, a ten year high. The proportion who saw jobs as plentiful remained the same at just over 11 percent. There was a pickup in those who thought more jobs would become available. It rose from the meager base of about 13 percent to 18 percent. Interestingly, 18 percent also expect fewer jobs to become available today. Only 16 percent of those surveyed anticipate an increase in their incomes. In other words, Gramlich missed the crux of yesterday’s report. That should come as no surprise. He is a government worker.
Lynn Franco, Director of the Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center: “Consumers remain disheartened with current economic conditions, and at the core of their disenchantment is the labor market. While the current expansion has generated jobs over the past several months, the pace of creation remains too tepid to generate a sustainable turnaround in consumers’ confidence. And with consumers anticipating economic conditions to remain about the same in the months ahead, their short-term outlook turned less optimistic.”
With the report on mass layoffs due today, there is little reason to expect consumers will feel more buoyant in their level of confidence. It is important to be keenly aware of the crosscurrents in the consumer landscape. Wal-Mart and Target may be more optimistic and refund checks and lower tax payments will provide boosts to the pockets of consumers. At the same time, appliance makers are finding it more difficult, for example, to sell their products. It’s a mixed bag.
In 2002, the West Nile virus infected 4,156 people in the U.S. and 284 subsequently died. In 2003, 9,000 contracted the virus and 230 died. Only Alaska, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington State reported no human cases last year. More than 1,000 blood donors have tested positive for the virus in the United States.
Yesterday the EU decided to ban imports of chicks and eggs from the U.S. for one month after the discovery of bird flu in Texas. Hundreds of U.S. exporters will face $200 million in EU tariffs unless the U.S ends an export-tax credit by Monday.
This morning the Tata group, comprising 91 companies and India’s second-biggest business conglomerate, announced that Jeffrey Sage, a global automotive solutions executive with IBM in Detroit, will join Tata Motors, India’s biggest vehicle maker.
On Sunday, the British newspaper, The Sunday Express, reported that Osama bin Laden had been found and was surrounded by U.S. special forces. The Washington Times reported on Monday that a top-secret U.S. commando team, Task Force 121, the one that had helped capture Hussein, was heading for Afghanistan. Yesterday CNN reported that Pakistan reportedly moved between 8,000 and 10,000 soldiers into the area, and that Pakistan forces had arrested 20 people so far in this operation. All we do know is that the hunt for bin Laden continues. The rest is speculation.
Edward Gramlich: U.S. Federal Reserve Governor talking about the February’s drop in U.S. consumer confidence: “This is a modest drop. There’s always some volatility. It’s a fluctuation and confidence has come back from last year.”
Gramlich is correct in stating that confidence has come back from last year. Last February 25 was less than a month before we invaded Iraq. At that time consumer confidence had plummeted to 64, a drop of almost 15 points from the prior month. It was the lowest reading since October 1993. A year later the index has risen to 87. Although there was a drop of 9 points from the previous month, over the past year considerable improvement in the overall consumer confidence index has taken place.
Can a Fed Governor be half correct? The answer is yes in the case of Gramlich. Both he and Wall Street missed the most important point. In order to have a proper assessment of consumer confidence, today it is necessary to step back in time to one year ago. The answer can be found in confidence concerning jobs. This is very important. Despite the improvement in the overall index from 64 to 87 over the past 12 months, the percentage who saw jobs as hard to get had actually increased from roughly 31 percent to 32 percent, a ten year high. The proportion who saw jobs as plentiful remained the same at just over 11 percent. There was a pickup in those who thought more jobs would become available. It rose from the meager base of about 13 percent to 18 percent. Interestingly, 18 percent also expect fewer jobs to become available today. Only 16 percent of those surveyed anticipate an increase in their incomes. In other words, Gramlich missed the crux of yesterday’s report. That should come as no surprise. He is a government worker.
Lynn Franco, Director of the Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center: “Consumers remain disheartened with current economic conditions, and at the core of their disenchantment is the labor market. While the current expansion has generated jobs over the past several months, the pace of creation remains too tepid to generate a sustainable turnaround in consumers’ confidence. And with consumers anticipating economic conditions to remain about the same in the months ahead, their short-term outlook turned less optimistic.”
With the report on mass layoffs due today, there is little reason to expect consumers will feel more buoyant in their level of confidence. It is important to be keenly aware of the crosscurrents in the consumer landscape. Wal-Mart and Target may be more optimistic and refund checks and lower tax payments will provide boosts to the pockets of consumers. At the same time, appliance makers are finding it more difficult, for example, to sell their products. It’s a mixed bag.
In 2002, the West Nile virus infected 4,156 people in the U.S. and 284 subsequently died. In 2003, 9,000 contracted the virus and 230 died. Only Alaska, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington State reported no human cases last year. More than 1,000 blood donors have tested positive for the virus in the United States.
Yesterday the EU decided to ban imports of chicks and eggs from the U.S. for one month after the discovery of bird flu in Texas. Hundreds of U.S. exporters will face $200 million in EU tariffs unless the U.S ends an export-tax credit by Monday.
This morning the Tata group, comprising 91 companies and India’s second-biggest business conglomerate, announced that Jeffrey Sage, a global automotive solutions executive with IBM in Detroit, will join Tata Motors, India’s biggest vehicle maker.
On Sunday, the British newspaper, The Sunday Express, reported that Osama bin Laden had been found and was surrounded by U.S. special forces. The Washington Times reported on Monday that a top-secret U.S. commando team, Task Force 121, the one that had helped capture Hussein, was heading for Afghanistan. Yesterday CNN reported that Pakistan reportedly moved between 8,000 and 10,000 soldiers into the area, and that Pakistan forces had arrested 20 people so far in this operation. All we do know is that the hunt for bin Laden continues. The rest is speculation.
Tuesday, February 24, 2004
2/24/04 In Good Shape
Some pretty savvy bond managers bought 10-year Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS) two years ago. During this time period the yield on TIPS has dropped from 3.5% to about 1.8%. How could smart people be so wrong? TIPS are linked to the CPI, and the latter has been gaining at a rate approximating 1.8%. Therefore, the threat of inflation has been low and that is bad news for the performance of TIPS. There are exceptions, but it is fair to state that supply continues to overwhelm demand. Until that phenomenon changes, inflation should remain muted. Rather, one might consider the alternative. If demand does not pick up during an economic recovery, when will it?
Greenspan: “Overall, the household sector seems to be in good shape…over the past two years, significant increases in the value of real-estate assets have, for some households, mitigated stock market losses and supported consumption.” Why should I worry? Greenspan explained that U.S. households own more than $14 trillion in real estate assets, and that’s almost twice the amount they own in mutual funds and directly hold in stocks. As such, even though consumer debt hit a record $2 trillion in December, and even though a record 1.6 million people filed for personal bankruptcy in fiscal year 2003, I do not need to worry because Greenspan proclaimed that “bankruptcy rates are not a reliable measure of the overall health of the household sector because they do not tend to forecast general economic conditions.” We had better root hard for home prices to keep rising. That appears to be our safety net. If the bankruptcy rates were declining, I have a feeling Greenspan would state they do indeed reflect the overall health of the household sector. Put simply, I think his statement is bullshit. If individuals file for bankruptcy, what happens to their debts? Not all the money owed is to large credit card companies that simply write it off as a bad debt. There are plenty of small businesses that are hurt, and that hurt ripples through communities. Bankruptcy filings are not a sign of fun and games. They reflect real hurt. You cannot have 45 million people without health insurance and millions of Americans either out of work, without a full-time job, or too discouraged to find a job and state the household sector is in good shape. If Greenspan believes those words, he should retire immediately before he ends his career on a worse than down note.
According to a recent survey by Habif, Arogeti, and Wynne, 20% of Georgia manufacturers have lost sales in excess of $1 million to offshore competitors in the past five years. Sixty-two percent of Georgia’s most profitable manufacturers reported losing sales to offshore competitors in the last five years. Manufacturers that sell more products outside the U.S. experience higher profit rates. Just 5.7% of Georgia manufacturers have moved activities overseas in the past five years, but 30% of publicly owned Georgia companies are “somewhat likely” or “very likely” to do so in the next five years.
The Commerce Department reported that e-commerce sales rose by almost 30% in the last quarter of 2003 compared with the previous three-month period. They now represent close to 2% of total retail sales.
Clariant, the Swiss chemical company, will cut 4,000 jobs over the next two years.
Yamanouchi Pharmaceutical and Fujisawa Pharmaceutical are merging and will become Japan’s largest pharmaceutical company. We can look forward to more global combinations in the healthcare industry.
Gonzales County is one of Texas’ top poultry-producing counties with more than 85 million birds with a value of $100 million, according to Agriculture Department data. On Monday the avian influenza virus discovered last week in Gonzales County was reclassified by the USDA as a highly potent strain based on DNA testing. The CDC has no evidence of any human health implications. Nevertheless, the Philippines and South Korea promptly banned imports of chicken and other poultry products from Texas. It is not the same strain that killed 22 people in Asia. However, it is the first time since 1983-84 that high-pathogenic avian flu has been found in the U.S. Philip Tiereno, director of microbiology at the New York University Medical Center, stated the real fear is that, in the process of jumping between chickens and humans, there could be an exchange of genetic matter or mutation, and this could make this strain more deadly.
Foreigners own 42% of the $3.6 trillion of U.S. treasury securities outstanding. If we do not reduce our deficits and cut government expenditures, waste, and pork programs, the majority of our nation’s outstanding indebtedness will be owned by non-Americans. This is a WMD soon to explode in our neighborhoods.
Some pretty savvy bond managers bought 10-year Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS) two years ago. During this time period the yield on TIPS has dropped from 3.5% to about 1.8%. How could smart people be so wrong? TIPS are linked to the CPI, and the latter has been gaining at a rate approximating 1.8%. Therefore, the threat of inflation has been low and that is bad news for the performance of TIPS. There are exceptions, but it is fair to state that supply continues to overwhelm demand. Until that phenomenon changes, inflation should remain muted. Rather, one might consider the alternative. If demand does not pick up during an economic recovery, when will it?
Greenspan: “Overall, the household sector seems to be in good shape…over the past two years, significant increases in the value of real-estate assets have, for some households, mitigated stock market losses and supported consumption.” Why should I worry? Greenspan explained that U.S. households own more than $14 trillion in real estate assets, and that’s almost twice the amount they own in mutual funds and directly hold in stocks. As such, even though consumer debt hit a record $2 trillion in December, and even though a record 1.6 million people filed for personal bankruptcy in fiscal year 2003, I do not need to worry because Greenspan proclaimed that “bankruptcy rates are not a reliable measure of the overall health of the household sector because they do not tend to forecast general economic conditions.” We had better root hard for home prices to keep rising. That appears to be our safety net. If the bankruptcy rates were declining, I have a feeling Greenspan would state they do indeed reflect the overall health of the household sector. Put simply, I think his statement is bullshit. If individuals file for bankruptcy, what happens to their debts? Not all the money owed is to large credit card companies that simply write it off as a bad debt. There are plenty of small businesses that are hurt, and that hurt ripples through communities. Bankruptcy filings are not a sign of fun and games. They reflect real hurt. You cannot have 45 million people without health insurance and millions of Americans either out of work, without a full-time job, or too discouraged to find a job and state the household sector is in good shape. If Greenspan believes those words, he should retire immediately before he ends his career on a worse than down note.
According to a recent survey by Habif, Arogeti, and Wynne, 20% of Georgia manufacturers have lost sales in excess of $1 million to offshore competitors in the past five years. Sixty-two percent of Georgia’s most profitable manufacturers reported losing sales to offshore competitors in the last five years. Manufacturers that sell more products outside the U.S. experience higher profit rates. Just 5.7% of Georgia manufacturers have moved activities overseas in the past five years, but 30% of publicly owned Georgia companies are “somewhat likely” or “very likely” to do so in the next five years.
The Commerce Department reported that e-commerce sales rose by almost 30% in the last quarter of 2003 compared with the previous three-month period. They now represent close to 2% of total retail sales.
Clariant, the Swiss chemical company, will cut 4,000 jobs over the next two years.
Yamanouchi Pharmaceutical and Fujisawa Pharmaceutical are merging and will become Japan’s largest pharmaceutical company. We can look forward to more global combinations in the healthcare industry.
Gonzales County is one of Texas’ top poultry-producing counties with more than 85 million birds with a value of $100 million, according to Agriculture Department data. On Monday the avian influenza virus discovered last week in Gonzales County was reclassified by the USDA as a highly potent strain based on DNA testing. The CDC has no evidence of any human health implications. Nevertheless, the Philippines and South Korea promptly banned imports of chicken and other poultry products from Texas. It is not the same strain that killed 22 people in Asia. However, it is the first time since 1983-84 that high-pathogenic avian flu has been found in the U.S. Philip Tiereno, director of microbiology at the New York University Medical Center, stated the real fear is that, in the process of jumping between chickens and humans, there could be an exchange of genetic matter or mutation, and this could make this strain more deadly.
Foreigners own 42% of the $3.6 trillion of U.S. treasury securities outstanding. If we do not reduce our deficits and cut government expenditures, waste, and pork programs, the majority of our nation’s outstanding indebtedness will be owned by non-Americans. This is a WMD soon to explode in our neighborhoods.
Monday, February 23, 2004
2/23/04 The American Way
If Ralph Nader can garner 1.5 million signatures, then it is his right to run for the presidency. In the last election he received 2.7% of the votes cast. He did not lose the election for Gore and the Democrats. Gore lost the election. He stunk the house out. It should have been a slam dunk. All he needed to do was to hammer away on the economic gains of the Clinton years. Gore was an inept campaigner and deserved to lose. I agree with a statement Nader made on Meet The Press. He stated that, if Bush cannot trust the American people with the truth, then the American people should not trust Bush with the presidency. That statement alone, in my opinion, makes his run for the White House an effort worth appreciating. Nader is out-spoken and bright. He is tough and, at the same time, understanding of the underdog’s plight. The race is better for Nader being in it. If anyone is afraid of him, it should be Bush. Nader will hone in on his weaknesses and exploit them for all of America to see. Maybe the various factions that support Bush will open their eyes. When you’re surrounded by hand guns and rifles in one’s home, I know one can be a bit preoccupied and oblivious to the truth. Nader couldn’t break the preoccupation of those in 2000. Maybe he’ll have better luck in 2004.
It’s the American dream to afford to own a home. Is an interest-only mortgage an example of owning a home? You don’t pay the principal. You don’t build up equity. As long as home prices continue to escalate, no one gets hurt. There is nothing to prevent individuals from making principal payments in addition to the interest-only payments. Today’s most popular product is the 5/1 ARM, which fixes the interest rate for the first five years and then converts to a one-year adjustable rate. In the third quarter of 2003, the Mortgage Bankers Association stated that ARMs ended up in foreclosure at a 0.55% rate versus fixed-rate mortgages at a 0.27% rate. Fannie Mae reported that ARMs are about 40% of the dollar volume of today’s mortgage market. With interest rates at 40-year lows, it is difficult to understand why more home buyers don’t lock in fixed rates at present levels. The answer may be that adjustable rate mortgages are lower than fixed rates and that the average borrower keeps a mortgage five to seven years. Tom Smith, senior product manager at Fannie Mae, stated “the biggest appeal is the increase in purchasing power the consumer has by being qualified at only the interest payments on the loan.” Doug Duncan, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association, stated “they don’t intend to build up equity in that property but to free up cash to solve other issues they may have financially. Then they move in three or four years anyway.” There is one additional advantage. With lower payments than if the homeowner were actually paying off the mortgage loan, the individual can still take the tax deductions for that interest. Everyone comes out a winner. Of course, interest rates need to stay low and home prices need to rise in value. It’s been a picnic for the last several years. If that formula for success should change, as with derivatives discussed yesterday, there could be a heap of trouble. American ingenuity is always at work. We can extend this winning formula to interest-only home-equity loans. It doesn’t get much better than that. Of course, with no equity, there cannot be true ownership. Am I the only one bothered by that concept?
There are 161,000 people in New York City’s securities industry. The New York State comptroller’s office stated that those in the industry received an average bonus of $66,800 in 2003. I hope investors believe they got their money’s worth in service and advice. Rising equity prices can mask inefficiencies, and that I am stating gently.
The British Medical Journal study reported that a major downsizing (cutting the workforce by more than 18%) helped to create an increase of 18% in the sickness rate of employees following the downsizing. It’s a lose-lose situation. Either you lose your job through downsizing or you stand an increased risk of sickness. It’s better to work in NY in the securities industry and receive a bonus of $66,800. There’s less chance to be downsized and less risk to get sick. Without a conscience and without a sense of wrongdoing, each day has blue skies. Just as interest-only mortgages and interest-only home equity loans are the rage, so is program trading, a mechanism that comprises over 50% of each day’s trading volume. The inherent worth and cash flow of a business take a weak second place to trading indices and scalping 1/64s of a point. Is this the mark of investing and building capital for over 50% of Americans who are owners of stocks? I don’t believe so. Those are folks left behind. This new game was not meant for them.
EBay has reported that about 430,000 individuals and small businesses make their livings off this portal, nearly three times the number in late 2002. Today the company will begin offering small business credit lines up to $50,000 and financing options for industrial and high-tech equipment that costs more than $2,000 in addition to shipping and tracking services.
The tax preparation business is changing. In 2002, only about 1,000 U.S. taxpayers had their income tax returns prepared by accountants in India. This number rose to 20,000 in 2003; however, this year the number is anticipated to jump to between 150,000 and 200,000 returns. The average accountant in India makes one tenth of the salary made by those in the U.S. India graduates about 50,000 accountants per year. They can comfortably handle 5 million U.S. returns or more.
If Ralph Nader can garner 1.5 million signatures, then it is his right to run for the presidency. In the last election he received 2.7% of the votes cast. He did not lose the election for Gore and the Democrats. Gore lost the election. He stunk the house out. It should have been a slam dunk. All he needed to do was to hammer away on the economic gains of the Clinton years. Gore was an inept campaigner and deserved to lose. I agree with a statement Nader made on Meet The Press. He stated that, if Bush cannot trust the American people with the truth, then the American people should not trust Bush with the presidency. That statement alone, in my opinion, makes his run for the White House an effort worth appreciating. Nader is out-spoken and bright. He is tough and, at the same time, understanding of the underdog’s plight. The race is better for Nader being in it. If anyone is afraid of him, it should be Bush. Nader will hone in on his weaknesses and exploit them for all of America to see. Maybe the various factions that support Bush will open their eyes. When you’re surrounded by hand guns and rifles in one’s home, I know one can be a bit preoccupied and oblivious to the truth. Nader couldn’t break the preoccupation of those in 2000. Maybe he’ll have better luck in 2004.
It’s the American dream to afford to own a home. Is an interest-only mortgage an example of owning a home? You don’t pay the principal. You don’t build up equity. As long as home prices continue to escalate, no one gets hurt. There is nothing to prevent individuals from making principal payments in addition to the interest-only payments. Today’s most popular product is the 5/1 ARM, which fixes the interest rate for the first five years and then converts to a one-year adjustable rate. In the third quarter of 2003, the Mortgage Bankers Association stated that ARMs ended up in foreclosure at a 0.55% rate versus fixed-rate mortgages at a 0.27% rate. Fannie Mae reported that ARMs are about 40% of the dollar volume of today’s mortgage market. With interest rates at 40-year lows, it is difficult to understand why more home buyers don’t lock in fixed rates at present levels. The answer may be that adjustable rate mortgages are lower than fixed rates and that the average borrower keeps a mortgage five to seven years. Tom Smith, senior product manager at Fannie Mae, stated “the biggest appeal is the increase in purchasing power the consumer has by being qualified at only the interest payments on the loan.” Doug Duncan, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association, stated “they don’t intend to build up equity in that property but to free up cash to solve other issues they may have financially. Then they move in three or four years anyway.” There is one additional advantage. With lower payments than if the homeowner were actually paying off the mortgage loan, the individual can still take the tax deductions for that interest. Everyone comes out a winner. Of course, interest rates need to stay low and home prices need to rise in value. It’s been a picnic for the last several years. If that formula for success should change, as with derivatives discussed yesterday, there could be a heap of trouble. American ingenuity is always at work. We can extend this winning formula to interest-only home-equity loans. It doesn’t get much better than that. Of course, with no equity, there cannot be true ownership. Am I the only one bothered by that concept?
There are 161,000 people in New York City’s securities industry. The New York State comptroller’s office stated that those in the industry received an average bonus of $66,800 in 2003. I hope investors believe they got their money’s worth in service and advice. Rising equity prices can mask inefficiencies, and that I am stating gently.
The British Medical Journal study reported that a major downsizing (cutting the workforce by more than 18%) helped to create an increase of 18% in the sickness rate of employees following the downsizing. It’s a lose-lose situation. Either you lose your job through downsizing or you stand an increased risk of sickness. It’s better to work in NY in the securities industry and receive a bonus of $66,800. There’s less chance to be downsized and less risk to get sick. Without a conscience and without a sense of wrongdoing, each day has blue skies. Just as interest-only mortgages and interest-only home equity loans are the rage, so is program trading, a mechanism that comprises over 50% of each day’s trading volume. The inherent worth and cash flow of a business take a weak second place to trading indices and scalping 1/64s of a point. Is this the mark of investing and building capital for over 50% of Americans who are owners of stocks? I don’t believe so. Those are folks left behind. This new game was not meant for them.
EBay has reported that about 430,000 individuals and small businesses make their livings off this portal, nearly three times the number in late 2002. Today the company will begin offering small business credit lines up to $50,000 and financing options for industrial and high-tech equipment that costs more than $2,000 in addition to shipping and tracking services.
The tax preparation business is changing. In 2002, only about 1,000 U.S. taxpayers had their income tax returns prepared by accountants in India. This number rose to 20,000 in 2003; however, this year the number is anticipated to jump to between 150,000 and 200,000 returns. The average accountant in India makes one tenth of the salary made by those in the U.S. India graduates about 50,000 accountants per year. They can comfortably handle 5 million U.S. returns or more.
Sunday, February 22, 2004
2/22/04 Double Taxation And Worse
Charles Munger, Warren Buffett’s partner: “We tried to sell Gen Re’s derivatives operation and couldn’t, so we started liquidating it. We had to take big markdowns. I would confidently predict that most of the derivative books of (this country’s) major banks cannot be liquidated for anything like what they’re carried on the books at. When the denouement will happen and how severe it will be, I don’t know. But I fear the consequences could be fearsome. I think there are major problems, worse than in the energy field, and look at the destruction there.” Let’s suppose Munger is partially correct. There are estimated to be $41 trillion of derivatives floating through the atmosphere of the financial world. The value of all the stocks owned in the public domain are but a small fraction of that number. The value of the U.S. debt is $7 trillion. Our GDP is approximately $10 trillion. Derivatives overwhelm all of the aforementioned. Munger is one of the smartest guys managing money. If you doubt that statement, look at the yearly returns for Wesco Financial, the company he runs. Berkshire Hathaway owns 80% of Wesco Financial. Derivatives never sleep. No matter what happens around the globe, derivatives are alive and well. They go tick tick tick 24 hours a day.
Bill Ford, Ford Motor’s CEO: “If U.S. manufacturers have the health care burden, and if you don’t elsewhere, it starts to look more attractive to put your dollars elsewhere. That’s a real drag on the economy in terms of job creation.”
Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc.: “There is a huge reluctance on the part of business to hire unless they absolutely, absolutely have to. The cost of hiring someone can also be an expensive proposition, especially in health care.”
Firing is starting to stabilize and diminish; however, it takes some time for net employment to show marked improvement. For example, Bay Area and East Bay tech employment in December 2003 was only slightly below the total for December 2002. The Bay Area’s nearly 303,000 jobs at the end of 2003 were down 6% from the year before level. In the East Bay it was down 3.1% over the 12 months. Nevertheless, the 303,000 figure was 34% below the employment height of 462,000 jobs reached in December 2000, and it is the lowest level in nearly eight years. In talking with CEOs and hiring professionals, the bottom line is that it’s easier to get a contract job than a full-time job. Bay Area employers increasingly rely on contract workers as a way of cutting benefit costs, particularly health benefits. The main engine to getting hired is the ability to add revenue or cut costs. Secondarily is the need to fill a technical void, such as, computer security systems or web service skills.
Douglas Conant, Campbell Soup CEO: “Our customers are really slugging it out for retail space, and as long as Wal-Mart and some of the other customers are putting pressure on our customer base, it’s going to be a challenging environment for all manufacturers.” Wal-Mart’s Supercenters can buy and sell goods cheaper than their competitors. Their dedication to buying “right” is saving billions of dollars for American consumers. When you see the price of diapers or peanut butter or some other item lower at Wal-Mart, you can thank them with your repeat business. They are making ends meet a bit easier for our nation’s citizens. At the same time, they are squeezing the profit margins at many American companies. Those companies are forced to become more efficient, a lost art for many overpaid CEOs.
We have a growing WMD in our society. Bush may be searching for bin Laden but he has not set his sights on the American worker who receives social security. Supposedly, Bush has cut the taxes for Americans. For some he has. On the other hand, older workers have been screwed badly. Let’s look at this forgotten landscape. It’s bad enough to grow old. Our society is aging. Those on fixed incomes have been screwed by Alan Greenspan and the Fed. Greenspan is 76 and he has a job that pays a good income. He is not dependent on interest earned on money market accounts or on various types of government bonds. If he earns one-half percent or one percent or two percent on his savings, so what. There’s plenty of a difference for millions of older people, such as, those born around 1937. They can no longer afford to retire. The fixed income returns are too meager. If you get social security, your ability to bring in additional money from a job are limited. There is a ceiling. Let’s say that limit is $12,000. That means you can only earn $250 per week. Taxes will be taken out of that $250.Those taxes include allowances for social security taxes you will never live to see and get back. But if you earn more than $250 per week, for example, then you are taxed on a certain amount of the social security income presently received by you, an amount the government arbitrarily views as too much to receive should you still be working. This is your money. You have earned it. You have paid taxes on it. Who gives the government the right to limit your earning capacity? So when you see Bush proudly proclaim how he has helped American families and lowered their taxes, remember those still working and receiving social security. There are millions of Americans who are doubled taxed and screwed.
Charles Munger, Warren Buffett’s partner: “We tried to sell Gen Re’s derivatives operation and couldn’t, so we started liquidating it. We had to take big markdowns. I would confidently predict that most of the derivative books of (this country’s) major banks cannot be liquidated for anything like what they’re carried on the books at. When the denouement will happen and how severe it will be, I don’t know. But I fear the consequences could be fearsome. I think there are major problems, worse than in the energy field, and look at the destruction there.” Let’s suppose Munger is partially correct. There are estimated to be $41 trillion of derivatives floating through the atmosphere of the financial world. The value of all the stocks owned in the public domain are but a small fraction of that number. The value of the U.S. debt is $7 trillion. Our GDP is approximately $10 trillion. Derivatives overwhelm all of the aforementioned. Munger is one of the smartest guys managing money. If you doubt that statement, look at the yearly returns for Wesco Financial, the company he runs. Berkshire Hathaway owns 80% of Wesco Financial. Derivatives never sleep. No matter what happens around the globe, derivatives are alive and well. They go tick tick tick 24 hours a day.
Bill Ford, Ford Motor’s CEO: “If U.S. manufacturers have the health care burden, and if you don’t elsewhere, it starts to look more attractive to put your dollars elsewhere. That’s a real drag on the economy in terms of job creation.”
Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc.: “There is a huge reluctance on the part of business to hire unless they absolutely, absolutely have to. The cost of hiring someone can also be an expensive proposition, especially in health care.”
Firing is starting to stabilize and diminish; however, it takes some time for net employment to show marked improvement. For example, Bay Area and East Bay tech employment in December 2003 was only slightly below the total for December 2002. The Bay Area’s nearly 303,000 jobs at the end of 2003 were down 6% from the year before level. In the East Bay it was down 3.1% over the 12 months. Nevertheless, the 303,000 figure was 34% below the employment height of 462,000 jobs reached in December 2000, and it is the lowest level in nearly eight years. In talking with CEOs and hiring professionals, the bottom line is that it’s easier to get a contract job than a full-time job. Bay Area employers increasingly rely on contract workers as a way of cutting benefit costs, particularly health benefits. The main engine to getting hired is the ability to add revenue or cut costs. Secondarily is the need to fill a technical void, such as, computer security systems or web service skills.
Douglas Conant, Campbell Soup CEO: “Our customers are really slugging it out for retail space, and as long as Wal-Mart and some of the other customers are putting pressure on our customer base, it’s going to be a challenging environment for all manufacturers.” Wal-Mart’s Supercenters can buy and sell goods cheaper than their competitors. Their dedication to buying “right” is saving billions of dollars for American consumers. When you see the price of diapers or peanut butter or some other item lower at Wal-Mart, you can thank them with your repeat business. They are making ends meet a bit easier for our nation’s citizens. At the same time, they are squeezing the profit margins at many American companies. Those companies are forced to become more efficient, a lost art for many overpaid CEOs.
We have a growing WMD in our society. Bush may be searching for bin Laden but he has not set his sights on the American worker who receives social security. Supposedly, Bush has cut the taxes for Americans. For some he has. On the other hand, older workers have been screwed badly. Let’s look at this forgotten landscape. It’s bad enough to grow old. Our society is aging. Those on fixed incomes have been screwed by Alan Greenspan and the Fed. Greenspan is 76 and he has a job that pays a good income. He is not dependent on interest earned on money market accounts or on various types of government bonds. If he earns one-half percent or one percent or two percent on his savings, so what. There’s plenty of a difference for millions of older people, such as, those born around 1937. They can no longer afford to retire. The fixed income returns are too meager. If you get social security, your ability to bring in additional money from a job are limited. There is a ceiling. Let’s say that limit is $12,000. That means you can only earn $250 per week. Taxes will be taken out of that $250.Those taxes include allowances for social security taxes you will never live to see and get back. But if you earn more than $250 per week, for example, then you are taxed on a certain amount of the social security income presently received by you, an amount the government arbitrarily views as too much to receive should you still be working. This is your money. You have earned it. You have paid taxes on it. Who gives the government the right to limit your earning capacity? So when you see Bush proudly proclaim how he has helped American families and lowered their taxes, remember those still working and receiving social security. There are millions of Americans who are doubled taxed and screwed.
Saturday, February 21, 2004
2/21/04 It’s Only A Matter Of Time
On the surface, the big story yesterday was the surging dollar. It had it’s biggest single day rise against the yen in about a year and a half. In addition, it moved sharply higher against the euro and approximately a dozen other major currencies. The Japanese government stated they may continue to sell the yen, and this comes as no surprise since they sold a record 7.15 trillion yen in January, a monthly record. Japan now holds over $550 billion of U.S. Treasury securities. We also heard from Klaus Liebscher, an ECB council member, who stated it’s “always possible” the bank will sell the euro to stem its two-year advance against the dollar. Contributing to this currency unrest was the Japanese Prime Minister raising that nation’s terrorism alert to the highest level. In addition, there are large short positions in the dollar, and many traders rushed in to cover their shorts as the dollar moved higher. Bear markets don’t trade down in a straight line. There can be sharp rallies within bear markets, and the dollar has been in a downturn for close to two years. With rising trade and budget deficits and interest rates much lower than the rest of the world’s economies, this trend will not change with a short-term rally. However, there is change in the currency wind. He Fan of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing stated “we are seeing a gradual shift in the world economy to this area. Some economists predict that in 2050 China will be the No. 1, the largest economy in the world as a result of both economic growth and an increase in the value of RMB.” (RMB stands for the Chinese currency, the renminbi, which is counted in yuan, and the yuan is now fixed at a value of about 12 U.S. cents or 8.28 to the dollar.) It should be noted that, in 1987, the official rate was 3.7 yuan to the dollar, but the black market rate was 10 yuan to the dollar. It is estimated that Chinese households have $100 billion in savings in U.S. dollars. As the confidence in the stability and viability of the Chinese economy increases, a gradual shift is taking place. Every day more Chinese citizens are converting their dollars into yuan. Chinese officials are well aware of this shift. There may be another reason for this sudden change of heart. Many believe it is only a matter of time until the yuan increases in value due to a change in the exchange rate. As the yuan takes on a greater life of its own as initially a regional currency, a modest revaluation is likely. It may not be tomorrow. But tomorrow more dollars will be converted into yuan, and the day after, and the day after that.
The country watched the indictment of Enron’s Skilling. Some wondered about Ken Lay’s future. Kenny Boy and his wife, Linda, are long-time friends of Bush and Cheney. This is an election year. An indictment of Lay would be most embarrassing for the president and vice president. I am not a lawyer; however, I have been reading 8-K reports filed with the SEC for several decades. Since 1985, Lay ran Enron. In 1987 in an 8-K filing the Enron Oil trading operation lost $85 million. The trading didn’t begin with Skilling and his cronies. Jan Avery worked in the Enron tax department in 1987. She stated “the pattern began very early, much earlier than anyone has reported. It started in the gray area of what was acceptable accounting principles and, in my opinion, later turned into a clean case of fraud.” She asked “where are the books for Enron Oil? How am I suppose to justify a $142 million loss for state tax purposes?” She refused to sign off on that figure. In the 1987 8-K filing that $142 million became $85 million. Avery stated “that was the clear beginning for me, when I realized that they were trying to hide all the losses. There was a huge discrepancy.” Under the law, once a party agrees to an illicit agreement, willful blindness will not save co-conspirators from being responsible for other conspirators’ acts. Looking the other way will not cut the mustard. It has been reported that Lay sold $100 million of Enron stock to pay debts. Did he know about the discrepancy in the 1987 8-K or any future discrepancies? Willful blindness may help in an election year, but it’s only a matter of time until that help disappears.
Boeing ran into a small hurdle yesterday. Let me have Boeing’s CEO tell you all about it. In a message to employees, Harry Stonecipher provided the following update on the U.S. Air Force 767 Tanker program: “Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld has implemented a pause in discussions between the U.S. Air Force and Boeing on the Air Force tanker program while a series of reviews is undertaken… consequently, starting on February 23, Boeing will slow the development efforts on the Air Force 767 tanker… through the end of 2003 Boeing had spent $270 million of company money on the Air Force 767 tanker program and has been spending approximately one million per day since then…we do not believe that continuing development work at the current level of effort is prudent for either the Air Force or Boeing. The slowdown will result in the releasing of approximately 100 contract employees in Wichita and could result in layoffs of up to 50 employees in Puget Sound as well as redeployment of approximately 600 Boeing employees across both sites.”
Phone company Alltel announced a company-wide restructuring. A total of 600 jobs will be eliminated. Company-wide, Alltel’s workers are split 60% to 40% between wireline and wireless divisions.
The global hedge fund industry had record inflows exceeding $60 billion in 2003. Overall, last year’s returns were estimated at 15.44%. Total hedge fund assets are said to approximate $750 billion.
The Texas Animal Health Commission has indicated that an isolated case of avian influenza has been identified on a non-commercial farm outside of Gonzales, Texas. Preliminary indications are that the virus is a low-pathogenic strain, significantly less serious than the high-pathogenic strain recently found in Asia. There is no connection between this isolated case and that found in recent weeks in the Northeastern U.S. or the virus found in Asia.
On the surface, the big story yesterday was the surging dollar. It had it’s biggest single day rise against the yen in about a year and a half. In addition, it moved sharply higher against the euro and approximately a dozen other major currencies. The Japanese government stated they may continue to sell the yen, and this comes as no surprise since they sold a record 7.15 trillion yen in January, a monthly record. Japan now holds over $550 billion of U.S. Treasury securities. We also heard from Klaus Liebscher, an ECB council member, who stated it’s “always possible” the bank will sell the euro to stem its two-year advance against the dollar. Contributing to this currency unrest was the Japanese Prime Minister raising that nation’s terrorism alert to the highest level. In addition, there are large short positions in the dollar, and many traders rushed in to cover their shorts as the dollar moved higher. Bear markets don’t trade down in a straight line. There can be sharp rallies within bear markets, and the dollar has been in a downturn for close to two years. With rising trade and budget deficits and interest rates much lower than the rest of the world’s economies, this trend will not change with a short-term rally. However, there is change in the currency wind. He Fan of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing stated “we are seeing a gradual shift in the world economy to this area. Some economists predict that in 2050 China will be the No. 1, the largest economy in the world as a result of both economic growth and an increase in the value of RMB.” (RMB stands for the Chinese currency, the renminbi, which is counted in yuan, and the yuan is now fixed at a value of about 12 U.S. cents or 8.28 to the dollar.) It should be noted that, in 1987, the official rate was 3.7 yuan to the dollar, but the black market rate was 10 yuan to the dollar. It is estimated that Chinese households have $100 billion in savings in U.S. dollars. As the confidence in the stability and viability of the Chinese economy increases, a gradual shift is taking place. Every day more Chinese citizens are converting their dollars into yuan. Chinese officials are well aware of this shift. There may be another reason for this sudden change of heart. Many believe it is only a matter of time until the yuan increases in value due to a change in the exchange rate. As the yuan takes on a greater life of its own as initially a regional currency, a modest revaluation is likely. It may not be tomorrow. But tomorrow more dollars will be converted into yuan, and the day after, and the day after that.
The country watched the indictment of Enron’s Skilling. Some wondered about Ken Lay’s future. Kenny Boy and his wife, Linda, are long-time friends of Bush and Cheney. This is an election year. An indictment of Lay would be most embarrassing for the president and vice president. I am not a lawyer; however, I have been reading 8-K reports filed with the SEC for several decades. Since 1985, Lay ran Enron. In 1987 in an 8-K filing the Enron Oil trading operation lost $85 million. The trading didn’t begin with Skilling and his cronies. Jan Avery worked in the Enron tax department in 1987. She stated “the pattern began very early, much earlier than anyone has reported. It started in the gray area of what was acceptable accounting principles and, in my opinion, later turned into a clean case of fraud.” She asked “where are the books for Enron Oil? How am I suppose to justify a $142 million loss for state tax purposes?” She refused to sign off on that figure. In the 1987 8-K filing that $142 million became $85 million. Avery stated “that was the clear beginning for me, when I realized that they were trying to hide all the losses. There was a huge discrepancy.” Under the law, once a party agrees to an illicit agreement, willful blindness will not save co-conspirators from being responsible for other conspirators’ acts. Looking the other way will not cut the mustard. It has been reported that Lay sold $100 million of Enron stock to pay debts. Did he know about the discrepancy in the 1987 8-K or any future discrepancies? Willful blindness may help in an election year, but it’s only a matter of time until that help disappears.
Boeing ran into a small hurdle yesterday. Let me have Boeing’s CEO tell you all about it. In a message to employees, Harry Stonecipher provided the following update on the U.S. Air Force 767 Tanker program: “Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld has implemented a pause in discussions between the U.S. Air Force and Boeing on the Air Force tanker program while a series of reviews is undertaken… consequently, starting on February 23, Boeing will slow the development efforts on the Air Force 767 tanker… through the end of 2003 Boeing had spent $270 million of company money on the Air Force 767 tanker program and has been spending approximately one million per day since then…we do not believe that continuing development work at the current level of effort is prudent for either the Air Force or Boeing. The slowdown will result in the releasing of approximately 100 contract employees in Wichita and could result in layoffs of up to 50 employees in Puget Sound as well as redeployment of approximately 600 Boeing employees across both sites.”
Phone company Alltel announced a company-wide restructuring. A total of 600 jobs will be eliminated. Company-wide, Alltel’s workers are split 60% to 40% between wireline and wireless divisions.
The global hedge fund industry had record inflows exceeding $60 billion in 2003. Overall, last year’s returns were estimated at 15.44%. Total hedge fund assets are said to approximate $750 billion.
The Texas Animal Health Commission has indicated that an isolated case of avian influenza has been identified on a non-commercial farm outside of Gonzales, Texas. Preliminary indications are that the virus is a low-pathogenic strain, significantly less serious than the high-pathogenic strain recently found in Asia. There is no connection between this isolated case and that found in recent weeks in the Northeastern U.S. or the virus found in Asia.
Friday, February 20, 2004
2/20/04 A Field Trip
Is everyone on the plane? We have six stops to make. We’ll be in Maryland, Virginia, Florida, Arkansas, Pennsylvania and California. Paul Pinkney invited us to the 3.1 million square foot GM plant on Broening Highway where the company makes the GMC Safari and Chevrolet Astro. There’s Paul. He’s the burly 6 foot 2 inch guy in his 60s. Paul has been at this Maryland plant for 39 years. His starting pay was $2.54 per hour. Today he makes $26 per hour. When he first started at the plant, more than 7,000 workers were employed. The number has shrunk to 1,100. In 1965, when Paul joined GM, one out of every four adults in the U.S. worked in manufacturing. Now, it’s about one in ten. In their new contract with the United Auto Workers, GM has targeted this southeast Baltimore plant for possible closure next year. Paul observed that “these younger people, they’re going to have to move or get other trades or something because, at the rate things are going, they can bring in two pieces of equipment and eliminate 10 jobs.” Paul stated “I am General Motors. General Motors is what made me. Some people went in that plant, worked the same job ‘til they retired. No more of that.”
We need to hurry over to Virginia. It’s just a short trip. They have a $1 billion hole in the two-year, $59 billion state budget. Last night the state Senate took a voice vote on a plan that will have Virginians pay $2 billion a year in new taxes on sales, salaries, smokes, and motor fuel. The plan was tentatively approved. There’s Sen. H. Russell Potts Jr. He is a Republican from Winchester, and a true Virginian. He remarked “I hate taxes, but I love Virginia more.” Potts informed us that, adding a penny to the sales tax, now 4.5 cents on the dollar; pushing gasoline and diesel fuel taxes to 20.5 cents per gallon; and boosting the income tax for high-dollar Virginians, the Senate plan closes several loopholes in the corporate tax law and raises the cigarette tax from 2.5 cents a pack to 35 cents over two years. Sen. Charles Colgan is the senior member of the chamber. He observed “the next election shouldn’t mean a thing. What happens over the next generation is what matters.”
Our next stop is in the Orlando area but we will not be seeing Mickey Mouse. Unfortunately, there won’t be smiles at the Department of Children & Families (DCF). Their operations include the Family Safety Program Office, which oversees contracts with agencies that run group homes. In addition, they find adoptive parents and counsel members for abusive families. This Florida child-protection agency is beginning a major restructuring. They will eliminate 400 positions statewide and require 10% of its local work force to reapply for their jobs. The agency hopes to eliminate redundancies and standardize DCF management across regions.
The next stop will be a short visit with the CEO of Wal-Mart in Bentonville, Arkansas. I thought it might be interesting to inquire about their success. Lee Scott, their CEO, remarked “we are not raising prices and have no intention of doing so.” In fact, he claims Wal-Mart made $12 billion of rollbacks or price cuts last year. That’s more than the yearly revenue of many companies on the New York Stock Exchange. Target, their main competitor, stated rival Wal-Mart “are very, very competitive as they always have been and we have seen no change in their pricing strategy in the fourth quarter, and so far in the first quarter.”
On our way back to California we’ll be making a short stop in Philadelphia. Before the mad cow incident, we had planned for a Philly steak lunch. Now it will be a turkey sandwich. Rather be safe than sorry. It will be interesting to see why the folks over at the Philadelphia Reserve Bank of Philadelphia believe manufacturers remain optimistic. I did read where there is a slight improvement in the expectation of firms in the area about future plant employment. At the same time, expectations for capital spending did decline slightly. It would appear that the Philly Fed has opened an optical business. They are wearing rose-colored glasses. Upon further analysis, the diffusion index of current general activity has experienced a sharp decline of 7 points this month. The new orders index fell about 9 points. The shipments index fell almost 14 points. Not surprisingly, the current employment index fell. We need to leave. Otherwise, our group could get depressed. There’s plenty of time for that in sunny California.
Now that I have you captive on the long plane ride I thought I would go over the information provided in your welcome aboard packet. Twenty nine states are projecting budget shortfalls totaling up to $41 billion for fiscal 2005, which starts this July 1 for all but four states, according to this month’s report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Congress doled out $20 billion to help states patch gaps in fiscal 2003 and 2004. The “fiscal relief” package will run out this June 30. Many states used temporary or one-time fixes, such as depleting state rainy day reserves or drawing on tobacco settlement money, to balance the books in 2003 and 2004. The gaps will reappear in 2005. Most state budgets rely heavily on income taxes and earnings from employment. The national economic recovery did not create jobs over the past 12 months. In fact, there were net job losses and this means less revenue for the states. According to a December report from the National Governors Association, last year states collected almost $24 billion less in personal income, corporate income and sales tax revenue than they had originally budgeted. Scott Pattison, executive director of the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) stated “if projections aren’t being met, that’s a definite sign that states are in real trouble and that there might be some structural problems.”
Here we are in Sacramento. Elizabeth Hill has been a nonpartisan analyst who has advised lawmakers on the budget for 18 years. The other day she stated the state of California is facing a $17 billion budget, which is $3 billion more than Governor Arnold projected in his January budget proposal. The problem has grown, Hill stated, in part because of weaker than expected wages, which will lead to less in personal income tax receipts. Hill observed that, even if the $15 billion deficit bond measure passes, the state’s budget gap the following year will be $7 billion. In addition, the state maintains a deficit of at least $5 billion through 2008-2009 because of a consistent imbalance between revenues and expenditures. Hill remarked “the economy will not solve this problem for us. Even with the type of revenue growth that we are estimating, which is moderate economic growth and no recession, we cannot grow our way out of this problem.” She went on to relate that a report released last week showed that sales tax revenue dropped sharply in January, the second month in a row that tax receipts dropped. Hill criticized several of Arnold’s proposals, and suggested the Legislature look at alternative plans. They would be well served to do so.
Before our day ends, I have two pieces of good news. Mortgage rates have tumbled to seven-month lows. Anyone in need of a refinancing fix might consider it at this time. Secondly, that smiling person in the front will be handing out a box of Krispy Kreme donuts for you to take home. We wouldn’t want you to leave without a smile on your face. The company estimates that system wide sales will increase approximately 25% in their new fiscal year, and I wanted to do my part to help them achieve that goal.
Is everyone on the plane? We have six stops to make. We’ll be in Maryland, Virginia, Florida, Arkansas, Pennsylvania and California. Paul Pinkney invited us to the 3.1 million square foot GM plant on Broening Highway where the company makes the GMC Safari and Chevrolet Astro. There’s Paul. He’s the burly 6 foot 2 inch guy in his 60s. Paul has been at this Maryland plant for 39 years. His starting pay was $2.54 per hour. Today he makes $26 per hour. When he first started at the plant, more than 7,000 workers were employed. The number has shrunk to 1,100. In 1965, when Paul joined GM, one out of every four adults in the U.S. worked in manufacturing. Now, it’s about one in ten. In their new contract with the United Auto Workers, GM has targeted this southeast Baltimore plant for possible closure next year. Paul observed that “these younger people, they’re going to have to move or get other trades or something because, at the rate things are going, they can bring in two pieces of equipment and eliminate 10 jobs.” Paul stated “I am General Motors. General Motors is what made me. Some people went in that plant, worked the same job ‘til they retired. No more of that.”
We need to hurry over to Virginia. It’s just a short trip. They have a $1 billion hole in the two-year, $59 billion state budget. Last night the state Senate took a voice vote on a plan that will have Virginians pay $2 billion a year in new taxes on sales, salaries, smokes, and motor fuel. The plan was tentatively approved. There’s Sen. H. Russell Potts Jr. He is a Republican from Winchester, and a true Virginian. He remarked “I hate taxes, but I love Virginia more.” Potts informed us that, adding a penny to the sales tax, now 4.5 cents on the dollar; pushing gasoline and diesel fuel taxes to 20.5 cents per gallon; and boosting the income tax for high-dollar Virginians, the Senate plan closes several loopholes in the corporate tax law and raises the cigarette tax from 2.5 cents a pack to 35 cents over two years. Sen. Charles Colgan is the senior member of the chamber. He observed “the next election shouldn’t mean a thing. What happens over the next generation is what matters.”
Our next stop is in the Orlando area but we will not be seeing Mickey Mouse. Unfortunately, there won’t be smiles at the Department of Children & Families (DCF). Their operations include the Family Safety Program Office, which oversees contracts with agencies that run group homes. In addition, they find adoptive parents and counsel members for abusive families. This Florida child-protection agency is beginning a major restructuring. They will eliminate 400 positions statewide and require 10% of its local work force to reapply for their jobs. The agency hopes to eliminate redundancies and standardize DCF management across regions.
The next stop will be a short visit with the CEO of Wal-Mart in Bentonville, Arkansas. I thought it might be interesting to inquire about their success. Lee Scott, their CEO, remarked “we are not raising prices and have no intention of doing so.” In fact, he claims Wal-Mart made $12 billion of rollbacks or price cuts last year. That’s more than the yearly revenue of many companies on the New York Stock Exchange. Target, their main competitor, stated rival Wal-Mart “are very, very competitive as they always have been and we have seen no change in their pricing strategy in the fourth quarter, and so far in the first quarter.”
On our way back to California we’ll be making a short stop in Philadelphia. Before the mad cow incident, we had planned for a Philly steak lunch. Now it will be a turkey sandwich. Rather be safe than sorry. It will be interesting to see why the folks over at the Philadelphia Reserve Bank of Philadelphia believe manufacturers remain optimistic. I did read where there is a slight improvement in the expectation of firms in the area about future plant employment. At the same time, expectations for capital spending did decline slightly. It would appear that the Philly Fed has opened an optical business. They are wearing rose-colored glasses. Upon further analysis, the diffusion index of current general activity has experienced a sharp decline of 7 points this month. The new orders index fell about 9 points. The shipments index fell almost 14 points. Not surprisingly, the current employment index fell. We need to leave. Otherwise, our group could get depressed. There’s plenty of time for that in sunny California.
Now that I have you captive on the long plane ride I thought I would go over the information provided in your welcome aboard packet. Twenty nine states are projecting budget shortfalls totaling up to $41 billion for fiscal 2005, which starts this July 1 for all but four states, according to this month’s report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Congress doled out $20 billion to help states patch gaps in fiscal 2003 and 2004. The “fiscal relief” package will run out this June 30. Many states used temporary or one-time fixes, such as depleting state rainy day reserves or drawing on tobacco settlement money, to balance the books in 2003 and 2004. The gaps will reappear in 2005. Most state budgets rely heavily on income taxes and earnings from employment. The national economic recovery did not create jobs over the past 12 months. In fact, there were net job losses and this means less revenue for the states. According to a December report from the National Governors Association, last year states collected almost $24 billion less in personal income, corporate income and sales tax revenue than they had originally budgeted. Scott Pattison, executive director of the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) stated “if projections aren’t being met, that’s a definite sign that states are in real trouble and that there might be some structural problems.”
Here we are in Sacramento. Elizabeth Hill has been a nonpartisan analyst who has advised lawmakers on the budget for 18 years. The other day she stated the state of California is facing a $17 billion budget, which is $3 billion more than Governor Arnold projected in his January budget proposal. The problem has grown, Hill stated, in part because of weaker than expected wages, which will lead to less in personal income tax receipts. Hill observed that, even if the $15 billion deficit bond measure passes, the state’s budget gap the following year will be $7 billion. In addition, the state maintains a deficit of at least $5 billion through 2008-2009 because of a consistent imbalance between revenues and expenditures. Hill remarked “the economy will not solve this problem for us. Even with the type of revenue growth that we are estimating, which is moderate economic growth and no recession, we cannot grow our way out of this problem.” She went on to relate that a report released last week showed that sales tax revenue dropped sharply in January, the second month in a row that tax receipts dropped. Hill criticized several of Arnold’s proposals, and suggested the Legislature look at alternative plans. They would be well served to do so.
Before our day ends, I have two pieces of good news. Mortgage rates have tumbled to seven-month lows. Anyone in need of a refinancing fix might consider it at this time. Secondly, that smiling person in the front will be handing out a box of Krispy Kreme donuts for you to take home. We wouldn’t want you to leave without a smile on your face. The company estimates that system wide sales will increase approximately 25% in their new fiscal year, and I wanted to do my part to help them achieve that goal.
Thursday, February 19, 2004
2/19/04 Making Change Your Friend
A new survey by the Business Council revealed that 54% of its members stated their own companies had shifted employment from our shores to abroad over the past twelve months. Bank of America announced yesterday that it will set up an Indian subsidiary in Hyderabad for back-office operations with 1000 employees. You can expect other major financial institutions to make similar announcements.
The weather in January was 6.5 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than average. In fact, it got so cold that U.S. single-family housing starts fell 8% in January. Starts of townhouses, apartments, and other multifamily homes fell 7.8%. This decline will impact the final numbers for January’s economic growth. Residential construction accounts for 5% of the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S., and this does not include furniture, appliances, and other items for the home market.
The cold weather was a blessing for Wal-Mart. The company sold a lot of winter clothing. Overall, Wal-mart reported record earnings and sales for the quarter ended January 31, 2004. Total U.S. comparable sales for the quarter increased 4.8% and for the 12- month period they rose 4.1%. The largest percentage gainer was Sam’s Club. However, the star performer is the International Division. It’s comp sales for the year rose 17.3% and its yearly operating profit rose 18.6% to $2.370 billion. Income from continuing operations after minority interest and taxes for the whole year for the company was $8.9 billion. Wal-Mart now operates 1,355 locations in foreign countries in contrast to 3,551 locations in the United States. In ten years, I would not be surprised to see about the same number of locations inside and outside the United States. Wal-Mart continues to benefit from its television network providing product information. According to Nielsen ratings, 99 million consumers turn to Wal-Mart Television Network for product information each month.
According to the AARP, a fifth of Americans aged 50 and older cut back on vacations last year. Thirteen percent of retirees stated they were considering returning to work. Twenty one percent of working respondents stated they decided in the past year to retire later than previously planned.
A report released by Demos, a nonprofit public policy group, stated that senior households, most are on fixed incomes, owe an average of $4,041 on their credit cards. The report revealed that credit card debt of Americans aged 65 or older has jumped 89% in the past ten years.
For the first time, the U.S. government’s national debt amounted to more than $7 trillion. The government debt ceiling stands at $7.384. Prior to the November election, the Treasury will need to go back to the Congress for approval to raise the debt ceiling. This could become an issue in the upcoming election. Two years ago the debt reached $6 trillion. A trillion here and a trillion there, and before you know it, this becomes mounting and piling debt.
The U.S. government is not accepting any more H1-B applications. This year’s quota of 65,000 has been filled.
George Bush: “I’m not a statistician. I’m not a predictor.” Actually, he predicts all the time. There is good news though. Even a busted clock is right twice a day.
Voltage Security Inc. of Palo Alto has created an Instant Messaging –encryption product that’s designed to protect message exchanges from intercepting hackers.
The number of unemployed still on the benefit rolls after claiming an initial week of aid rose by 106,000 to 3.19 million in the Feb. 7 week, the latest for which figures are available.
A new survey by the Business Council revealed that 54% of its members stated their own companies had shifted employment from our shores to abroad over the past twelve months. Bank of America announced yesterday that it will set up an Indian subsidiary in Hyderabad for back-office operations with 1000 employees. You can expect other major financial institutions to make similar announcements.
The weather in January was 6.5 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than average. In fact, it got so cold that U.S. single-family housing starts fell 8% in January. Starts of townhouses, apartments, and other multifamily homes fell 7.8%. This decline will impact the final numbers for January’s economic growth. Residential construction accounts for 5% of the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S., and this does not include furniture, appliances, and other items for the home market.
The cold weather was a blessing for Wal-Mart. The company sold a lot of winter clothing. Overall, Wal-mart reported record earnings and sales for the quarter ended January 31, 2004. Total U.S. comparable sales for the quarter increased 4.8% and for the 12- month period they rose 4.1%. The largest percentage gainer was Sam’s Club. However, the star performer is the International Division. It’s comp sales for the year rose 17.3% and its yearly operating profit rose 18.6% to $2.370 billion. Income from continuing operations after minority interest and taxes for the whole year for the company was $8.9 billion. Wal-Mart now operates 1,355 locations in foreign countries in contrast to 3,551 locations in the United States. In ten years, I would not be surprised to see about the same number of locations inside and outside the United States. Wal-Mart continues to benefit from its television network providing product information. According to Nielsen ratings, 99 million consumers turn to Wal-Mart Television Network for product information each month.
According to the AARP, a fifth of Americans aged 50 and older cut back on vacations last year. Thirteen percent of retirees stated they were considering returning to work. Twenty one percent of working respondents stated they decided in the past year to retire later than previously planned.
A report released by Demos, a nonprofit public policy group, stated that senior households, most are on fixed incomes, owe an average of $4,041 on their credit cards. The report revealed that credit card debt of Americans aged 65 or older has jumped 89% in the past ten years.
For the first time, the U.S. government’s national debt amounted to more than $7 trillion. The government debt ceiling stands at $7.384. Prior to the November election, the Treasury will need to go back to the Congress for approval to raise the debt ceiling. This could become an issue in the upcoming election. Two years ago the debt reached $6 trillion. A trillion here and a trillion there, and before you know it, this becomes mounting and piling debt.
The U.S. government is not accepting any more H1-B applications. This year’s quota of 65,000 has been filled.
George Bush: “I’m not a statistician. I’m not a predictor.” Actually, he predicts all the time. There is good news though. Even a busted clock is right twice a day.
Voltage Security Inc. of Palo Alto has created an Instant Messaging –encryption product that’s designed to protect message exchanges from intercepting hackers.
The number of unemployed still on the benefit rolls after claiming an initial week of aid rose by 106,000 to 3.19 million in the Feb. 7 week, the latest for which figures are available.
Wednesday, February 18, 2004
2/18/04 Reverse Auctions
According to a recent survey by the state of Massachusetts Division of Health Care Finance and Policy, companies with fewer than 50 employees paid more for family coverage. The average premium was $818 per worker per month for a family plan, up 13.6% from 2002 and 37% higher than paid in 2000. For family coverage it was $857 per month, up 17.4% from 2002 and 42% since 2000.
The second annual investor survey on inflation sponsored by the Hartford Financial Services Group indicated that 72% of investors are concerned their investments will not keep pace with inflation, an increase of 14% from the prior year’s survey. The concern increases with age. Of those respondents age 65 and older, 86% believed that inflation would be higher during the next five years.
The British pound rose to $1.90, a 12-year high versus the dollar. The euro rose to an all-time high of $1.29 versus the dollar. While our currency has been declining in value, the Treasury has been experiencing strong net inflows into the U.S. Over the whole year, the inflows have averaged $59 billion per month, up sharply from $48 billion averaged monthly in 2002. With rising deficits, the U.S will need to import even greater monthly inflows this year.
Cingular is paying about $41 billion for AT&T Wireless. That’s a lot of money for advanced digital networks that allow high data transfer speeds as well as significant amount of spectrum that carry cell phone signals. By combining operations, Cingular states they can achieve savings in distribution, billing, marketing, and advertising. AT&T Wireless employs 31,000 people. To achieve significant cost savings it is safe to believe large layoffs can be expected after the merger becomes finalized.
Yesterday the Federal Reserve reported that factory output gained in January, and the main reason was cold weather. Utility output climbed 5.2% while natural gas production increased by 7%. Unfortunately, for some, it doesn’t get very cold in Houston in January. Yesterday Reliant Resources, a company that wholesales and retails electricity, put out a 2004 forecast that was lower than some on Wall Street expected. They initiated a cost-cutting program, and since the start of the year, about 150 jobs have been eliminated. They have 5,300 employees, and management stated total job cuts will end up being a significantly higher number than 150. For this year, Reliant stated it expected to make less money in its wholesale business because of additional plant capacity having come on line in its market last year, and with more expected to begin operating this year. It’s just another example of too much capacity and too little demand.
Fortunately for the Houston community they can fall back on the growth of Wal-Mart, this nation’s largest employer in the private sector. A new two million square-foot distribution center is being built in Baytown in order to expedite shipments from the Port of Houston and rail lines. The company can offload containers from ships and truck them to the distribution center for storage before shipment by truck or rail to other Wal-Mart stores. The facility should be operating by summer 2005. The center is expected to bring between 300 and 400 jobs to the area.
PPD, Inc. of Wilmington, NC announced the opening of a new office in Mumbai, India. This new drug development site will provide patient recruitment and clinical monitoring for Phase II-IV studies in key therapeutic areas. The company’s CEO stated it “allows us to assist clients in offering cost-effective clinical research opportunities to treatment-naïve patients for a number of therapies, including oncology and metabolic disease, such as diabetes.” According to a report in CenterWatch, patients can sometimes be recruited in India three to four times faster than in the West, including heightened acceleration for oncology studies due to the unmet needs in the therapeutic area.
The maker of AstroTurf has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization in Georgia. The parent company, American Sports Products Group, has as some of its largest creditors GE Capital and Blackstone.
Reverse auctions work like eBay only backward. Bidders push the price down rather than up. Reverse auctions enable competitors to see what the going price is and respond accordingly. Auctions are set for a given time, and normally bidders get two minutes to act each time a new low bid is made. Since 2001, Minnesota’s Department of Administration has started using reverse auctions to pit companies against each other to reduce the money the state pays each year for goods and services. Kent Allin, the state’s materials management director, stated that, in 14 of the 20 completed auctions, the online bid undercut the lowest sealed price. Minesota was the fist state to buy software and conduct auctions rather than contract the job out. The range of purchases Minnesota puts up for electronic bidding is wider than those of most states. Bills have been introduced to permit cities within Minnesota to hold reverse auctions. Allin observed “the Internet has revolutionized the way state government can buy and sell goods and services.” GE’s CIO claims the company saves hundreds of millions dollars per year utilizing reverse auctions. FreeMarkets claims it can save its customers at least 20% on purchases using reverse auctions. There are some who claim buyer and supplier relationships will deteriorate with these auctions beating up suppliers on price, and that the buyer’s savings is the seller’s loss of revenue. My belief is the process needs to be good for both the buyer and the seller. Both need to make money or this procurement mechanism will have a limited future. If handled properly, total costs can be reduced along with a reduction in the purchasing cycle.
According to a recent survey by the state of Massachusetts Division of Health Care Finance and Policy, companies with fewer than 50 employees paid more for family coverage. The average premium was $818 per worker per month for a family plan, up 13.6% from 2002 and 37% higher than paid in 2000. For family coverage it was $857 per month, up 17.4% from 2002 and 42% since 2000.
The second annual investor survey on inflation sponsored by the Hartford Financial Services Group indicated that 72% of investors are concerned their investments will not keep pace with inflation, an increase of 14% from the prior year’s survey. The concern increases with age. Of those respondents age 65 and older, 86% believed that inflation would be higher during the next five years.
The British pound rose to $1.90, a 12-year high versus the dollar. The euro rose to an all-time high of $1.29 versus the dollar. While our currency has been declining in value, the Treasury has been experiencing strong net inflows into the U.S. Over the whole year, the inflows have averaged $59 billion per month, up sharply from $48 billion averaged monthly in 2002. With rising deficits, the U.S will need to import even greater monthly inflows this year.
Cingular is paying about $41 billion for AT&T Wireless. That’s a lot of money for advanced digital networks that allow high data transfer speeds as well as significant amount of spectrum that carry cell phone signals. By combining operations, Cingular states they can achieve savings in distribution, billing, marketing, and advertising. AT&T Wireless employs 31,000 people. To achieve significant cost savings it is safe to believe large layoffs can be expected after the merger becomes finalized.
Yesterday the Federal Reserve reported that factory output gained in January, and the main reason was cold weather. Utility output climbed 5.2% while natural gas production increased by 7%. Unfortunately, for some, it doesn’t get very cold in Houston in January. Yesterday Reliant Resources, a company that wholesales and retails electricity, put out a 2004 forecast that was lower than some on Wall Street expected. They initiated a cost-cutting program, and since the start of the year, about 150 jobs have been eliminated. They have 5,300 employees, and management stated total job cuts will end up being a significantly higher number than 150. For this year, Reliant stated it expected to make less money in its wholesale business because of additional plant capacity having come on line in its market last year, and with more expected to begin operating this year. It’s just another example of too much capacity and too little demand.
Fortunately for the Houston community they can fall back on the growth of Wal-Mart, this nation’s largest employer in the private sector. A new two million square-foot distribution center is being built in Baytown in order to expedite shipments from the Port of Houston and rail lines. The company can offload containers from ships and truck them to the distribution center for storage before shipment by truck or rail to other Wal-Mart stores. The facility should be operating by summer 2005. The center is expected to bring between 300 and 400 jobs to the area.
PPD, Inc. of Wilmington, NC announced the opening of a new office in Mumbai, India. This new drug development site will provide patient recruitment and clinical monitoring for Phase II-IV studies in key therapeutic areas. The company’s CEO stated it “allows us to assist clients in offering cost-effective clinical research opportunities to treatment-naïve patients for a number of therapies, including oncology and metabolic disease, such as diabetes.” According to a report in CenterWatch, patients can sometimes be recruited in India three to four times faster than in the West, including heightened acceleration for oncology studies due to the unmet needs in the therapeutic area.
The maker of AstroTurf has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization in Georgia. The parent company, American Sports Products Group, has as some of its largest creditors GE Capital and Blackstone.
Reverse auctions work like eBay only backward. Bidders push the price down rather than up. Reverse auctions enable competitors to see what the going price is and respond accordingly. Auctions are set for a given time, and normally bidders get two minutes to act each time a new low bid is made. Since 2001, Minnesota’s Department of Administration has started using reverse auctions to pit companies against each other to reduce the money the state pays each year for goods and services. Kent Allin, the state’s materials management director, stated that, in 14 of the 20 completed auctions, the online bid undercut the lowest sealed price. Minesota was the fist state to buy software and conduct auctions rather than contract the job out. The range of purchases Minnesota puts up for electronic bidding is wider than those of most states. Bills have been introduced to permit cities within Minnesota to hold reverse auctions. Allin observed “the Internet has revolutionized the way state government can buy and sell goods and services.” GE’s CIO claims the company saves hundreds of millions dollars per year utilizing reverse auctions. FreeMarkets claims it can save its customers at least 20% on purchases using reverse auctions. There are some who claim buyer and supplier relationships will deteriorate with these auctions beating up suppliers on price, and that the buyer’s savings is the seller’s loss of revenue. My belief is the process needs to be good for both the buyer and the seller. Both need to make money or this procurement mechanism will have a limited future. If handled properly, total costs can be reduced along with a reduction in the purchasing cycle.
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