3/13/04 Malfunctioning

As is the weekend field trip custom, today’s will cover North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, Utah, and the Bay Area of California. Before we leave, I think we might take a moment to remember our two U.S. soldiers killed early this morning in Tikrit, two soldiers killed on Thursday by a roadside bomb at Habbaniyah, and one soldier killed and two others wounded on Wednesday.

Our first stop is in Atlanta with the management of Delta Air Lines. The company had previously predicted a first quarter loss of $300 to $350 million. Yesterday the loss estimate was boosted to $400 million. Management stated about $47 million of the increase is due to higher fuel-related costs. They also disclosed that its pension plans are underfunded by $5.7 billion, up from $4.9 billion in 2002. It’s a good thing the stock market rallied in 2003. Can you imagine the underfunding had that not taken place? Do you think Delta is the only airline facing higher fuel costs and problems with pension plan funding?

Seasonal layoffs took a toll on January’s employment in North Carolina. A visit with the state’s Employment Security Commission indicated that unemployment rates rose in 89 North Carolina counties in January. It had been hoped that the state could dodge the seasonal pattern bullet.

We’ve been invited to Brookfield, Missouri. This is a north-central Missouri town of about 4,700. Becky Cleveland, Brookfield’s economic development director, is here to greet us. She stated “we had no idea this was coming, and I hate to say that. I don’t think the employees knew this was coming…the decision was probably made at a much higher level.” Scott Ocholik is here too. He is director of finance for DURA Automotive Systems. The news is not good. Scott stated DURA would begin phasing out the work force in a couple of months. The local facility makes brake cables and employs 250 workers. The plant will close. DURA will close other facilities. Scott explained the company has acquired new plants and is operating more efficiently. DURA has 90 plants, 30 of them in North America. DURA is the second-largest employer in Brookfield.

There’s Sarah Wilhelm, a fiscal policy analyst for Utah issues. She stated “there are 200,000 poor people in Utah. That’s officially poor.” There are another 400,000 Utahns who don’t earn enough to pay their living expenses, a combination of bills that include housing, medical insurance and food, according to the Utah Issues annual report—Poverty in Utah 2003. She reported that the problem is threefold: lower average wages, high housing prices, and large family sizes. The report was released yesterday and stated “almost one-fifth of Utahns do not have sufficient net worth to survive for three months without income.” According to the report, white-collar workers earned wages at a rate of 24% less than the national average. On the housing side, growth in Utah’s housing prices increased income levels by threefold in the 1990s. Between 1990 and 2000, those housing price increases of 104% led the entire nation. During that time, Utah’s average household income grew by 24%. The report indicated that 43% cannot afford “fair-market rent” on a two-bedroom apartment.

Christopher Thornberg, an economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, stated “these economies in the Bay Area are inter-linked. That black hole known as the Silicon Valley is dragging the whole area down with it.” The average job total for the East Bay during the December-February period was down 5,800 jobs from the September-November period. The same comparison for the Bay Area revealed a loss of 28,000 jobs. Over the past year, state and local government jobs eroded at a much faster pace than private-sector employment in the Bay Area. Public sector woes could present problems for the private sector. As Sung Won Sohn, chief economist for Wells Fargo Bank observed, “the government is one of the largest users of private consulting services. A number of business service companies depend on work from the government at all levels.”

I don’t want you to think that the U.S. is alone in its unemployment problems. Volkswagen, Thomas Cook, and Degussa plan to cut a combined 3,200 jobs in Germany. In February, Germany’s unemployment rate rose to 10.3%. Since Schroeder became chancellor in October 1998, the number of unemployed workers has risen by 190,000.

Yesterday, the Commerce Department stated inventories rose 0.1% in January, lower than the gains expected. In my opinion, the low level of inventories reflect a loss of confidence, a lack of ability to raise prices, and the desire for inventories to meet demand on a just-in-time basis.

The U.S. trade deficit for 2003 as a whole stands at a record high of $541.1 billion, up from $480.9 billion in 2002. Of course, it’s not a problem because foreigners keep investing in dollar assets. We can smile all the way to the deficit poor house.

Richard S. Foster is not a household name. He was deputy chief actuary for the Social Security Administration for 13 years prior to becoming the chief Medicare actuary I 1995. There is a link on the Knight Ridder website about Foster. In late January, he provided the White House with calculations on the cost of the proposed Medicare legislation. The Congress had been provided numbers estimated at no more than $400 billion. Foster indicated the law would cost $534 billion. He was directed by his boss to “cease responding directly to Congress.” It sounds a bit like ‘we have a problem Houston.’

3/12/04 Trading Down

Don Evans, Secretary of Commerce: “Job trends are very encouraging.”

According to figures released yesterday by the U.S. Department of Labor, Massachusetts lost jobs faster than any other state since employment peaked in 2001. The state suffered a 6.2% decline in jobs between January 2001 and January 2004, the highest rate in the nation and more than three times the national average drop of 1.7% for that period. In the past three years, employment fell by 20% in manufacturing, by 25% in information and telecommunication, and by 15% in the professional and business sector, which includes both high-end and low-end service jobs. Employment in New England declined 3.9% during the three-year period.

The Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing, and Regulation reported that the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 6.3% in January from 5.4% a month earlier as a result of colder weather and customary post-holiday reductions in staffing among some businesses.

The state of Michigan survey of payroll jobs showed a decline of 14,000 positions in January. It marked the fourth month in a row that payroll jobs have declined in Michigan. David Littman, chief economist at Comerica, stated “it underscores Michigan’s inordinate reliance on manufacturing compared with the nation, and how employers are super cautious, and are able to substitute machines for labor to stay competitive, not to mention their outsourcing and off-shoring.” During January, only Oregon’s 7.7% and Alaska’s 7.3% rates were higher than Michigan’s. Littman observed “I don’t look to see any improvement relative to other states for four to six months.” There are 336,000 unemployed people in Michigan. There are presently 720,000 factory jobs in Michigan, 25,000 below that of a year ago.

Revised data for December 2003 show that Pennsylvania had 47,000 fewer jobs than previously reported, according to an analysis of new government figures by the Keystone Research Center. Stephen Herzenberg, an economist and executive director of Keystone, stated “the promises made by the Bush Administration about new jobs look more and more like fantasy.” Since February 2003, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry, the state has lost 31,800 manufacturing jobs. Those jobs paid $42,852 a year. Leisure and hospitality paid $14,133 yearly. Education and health services paid $33,724. In this state there has been serious trading down in pay as manufacturing jobs are eliminated.

The Sheaffer pen factory was founded in Fort Madison, Iowa in 1905. France-based Bic owns Shaeffer, one of the oldest brands of writing instruments made in the U.S. As sales have declined, the plant has cut more than 1,500 jobs over the last 25 years. About 115 workers remain. Nearly all the remaining employees have at least 30 years of seniority. Within the next two years the plant will close. Bic is also considering closing a Connecticut plant that employs about 300 people.

Greenspan: “In all likelihood, employment will begin to increase more quickly before long.” Since the latest monthly numbers indicated no rise in employment, a gain of one person on the payrolls would be a giant leap forward for mankind. Greenspan and Evans bear a strong resemblance to the wazoo bird. I like the latter better, however. The wazoo bird goes about its ever-decreasing circular path without dispensing bullshit.

Union workers at American Axle, a large GM supplier, approved a four-year contract where new hires receive a lower wage than current workers do. You can expect to read about new hires receiving this type of wage package at Delphi and Visteon within the next two or three weeks.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China, stated “we have been able to choke the oversupply of the monetary base and the excessive growth of credit.” It is rumored that Zhou will replace Greenspan as Fed chairman.

Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac chief economist: “For the year as a whole, we expect long-term rates may be even lower annually than they were in 2003.”

Say it isn’t so. Greenspan stated yesterday that tax increases probably will be needed in combination with benefit cuts to close the Social Security funding gap. Maybe we could close 50% of the government agencies before cutting benefits and/or raising taxes.

3/11/04 Economic Insecurity

Yesterday, Bush made his fifteenth visit to Ohio. He came to the City Of Cleveland to talk about small business. He talked about offshoring. What didn’t he mention? He omitted paying the National Congress exile group headed by Ahmad Chalabi about $340,000 a month for intelligence about insurgents and other matters. He failed to mention his proposed budget plan that cut funding for the SBA by $79 million. Ohio has lost 270,000 jobs since January 2001. Of those, 160,100 are manufacturing jobs. As of December 2003, there were 350,729 unemployed Ohioans. Since Bush took office, the state jobless rate jumped from 3.9% to over 6%. In the 2000 election, Bush won Ohio by 3.5 percentage points. The state has 20 electoral votes. No president has been elected without winning Ohio. Today, Bush will name a new manufacturing czar. It’s too little and too late. Why will Bush lose Ohio and the election? Robert Reich said it right on the money. He observed “economic insecurity-insecurity about losing jobs, losing pay and losing benefits- -is widespread.” The latest Zogby poll shows 21% of probable voters are afraid of losing their jobs in the next 12 months. With those earning more than $75,000, it jumps to 25%.

Bush and his cronies want you to believe only a few states are responsible for the loss of jobs. That is pure bullshit. When all the revisions are analyzed, only Alaska has provided more jobs. Let’s look at Georgia. The revisions came in yesterday. Atlanta had been highlighted as a city creating jobs. In 2003, the fifth highest population migration took place into the state of Georgia. The main attraction was job creation. Unfortunately, Metro Atlanta ended 2003 with 84,200 fewer jobs than first thought. Instead of creating 67,900 jobs, they actually lost 16,800 jobs. Georgia started 2003 with 3,903,300 jobs and ended the year with 3,899,800. It was originally thought that Georgia had gained 63,200 jobs in 2003.

It was reported yesterday that the federal government has stuck the states with a $29 billion tab. Of that amount, almost $10 billion was for enforcing the NO Child Left Behind education law and another $10 billion in providing education for disabled students. The National Conference of State Legislatures indicated that states will have to spend 6% of their general fund revenues in 2004 on federally mandated programs and 7% in 2005.

Following its purchase of FleetBoston Financial Corp, the Bank of America might cut as many as 11,000 jobs.

China has imposed a June 1 deadline on data encryption standards. Intel stated “we have been unable to find an appropriate solution that meets Intel’s product quality standards that follows the People’s Republic of China requirements. “ This would preclude Intel from offering Centrino products in China.

First we had JC Penney biting the bullet on Eckerd Drug. Now Target is moving towards disposing of Marshall Field’s and Mervyn’s. Penney has had a difficult time finding a buyer for Eckerd. Target won’t have a picnic in its search for a buyer and/or buyers.

Yesterday, a record U.S. trade deficit of $43.1 billion was reported for January. Part of the deficit can be blamed on rising oil prices. Another contributing factor was the 40% drop in meat and poultry exports since November 1993. Mad cow and avian flu can be the kiss of death, no pun intended. One additional factor was the drop in Boeing aircraft deliveries. The latter is a recurring theme.

In January, car sales fell 6.6%, their weakest performance in 7 years. However, there has been a pickup in recalls. Yesterday, Ford chimed in and recalled 1.3 million vehicles.

U.S. companies are generating greater after-tax earnings overseas. It was reported that, at the end of 2002, earnings kept overseas grew to $639 billion from an estimated $400 billion in 1999.

It was a little over six months ago that I wrote about Skype and its new Internet voice/calling service. Their website indicates 8.5 million users globally and 1.2 million users are added monthly.

Stan Greenberg, Democratic pollster: “When we look back in November, it will be disposable income as much as jobs which will determine the outcome.” As the markets moved yesterday below their December 31, 2003 closing prices, matters came into clearer view. Bush may not get Main Street but Wall Street had better get Main Street in a hurry. Economic insecurity leads to lower levels of consumer spending and less growth in the service sector.

3/10/04 Knowing, Consulting, Synthesizing, And Initiating

Meg Whitman, eBay CEO: “We’re a different company every three months.”

Howard Schultz, Starbucks CEO since 1987, sat on eBay’s board of directors for five years. He considers this tenure “the highlight of my business career.”

One cannot ignore the sheer numbers posted by eBay. Its founder, Pierre Omidyar, is a computer programmer. He test marketed AuctionWeb in 1995. Within two years, the company was renamed eBay and it had 300,000 users and 40 employees. Meg became CEO in 1998. Today, its revenues are closing in on $3 billion and its worldwide customers are approaching 100 million in number. About 20 million items are listed daily on its auction site. This company has a lot in common with Starbucks and Wal-Mart. The heads of the three companies remain down-to-earth. They are constantly accessible to others in their organization. Each has a community of customers. The customers have a say in the business because the CEO listens to their concerns, their issues, their wishes, and synthesizes and initiates changes. As Meg Whitman observed, “You have to have a sense of what issues are hot in the community. A cardinal sin is not knowing what the community’s concerns are. Even worse, initiating something here without consulting the community. The beauty of this business…is that when you ask 10 questions, you get 4,000 answers. So we do a lot of synthesizing. We are also trying to stay focused and continue to solidify our brand.” It sounds simple. It requires dedication and discipline. It’s been proven, however, that only a handful of companies can perform like this day-in-and-day-out. At the end of the day, the customer becomes a repeat customer. As Meg stated, “the experience people have with each other helps define your brand.”

Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) is not a new fad. It’s been around for decades. More than 30 years ago, Ross Perot’s EDS performed data center facilities management. Automated Data Processing has been in the payroll business for decades. Gartner Dataquest estimates that organizations around the world will spend about $128 billion in 2004 for BPO contracts. They figure the amount will double in 2005. In sum, it’s not a new business model. Like the Atkins diet, it took some time to gain followers.

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell 2 points in March to 54.5. In January the index was 60.6 and then dropped 4.1 points in February. Over the past few months the six-month economic outlook dropped 9 points to 53.6. Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, stated “with a nearly jobless recovery and the latest economic numbers tempering last quarter’s optimism, a drop in the index is understandable.”

Debt collection is very labor intensive. Like customer service, it is in the process of being outsourced. The largest debt collector in the U.S. is NCO Group. Presently, overseas facilities account for about 5% of the company’s debt-collection activities, stated Paul Weitzel, the CEO. He estimates that, within five years, at least 25% of NCO’s debt collection will be conducted abroad. The company has 50,000 customers and Weitzel stated “as long as clients want to cut costs and we can’t fill seats in the United States, you’re going to see this trend continuing.”

In the Washington DC metro area Giant Food and Safeway have begun negotiating a four-year contract with their 18,000 union workers. The two chains comprise 48% of the local market. The companies want pay cuts for new workers and fewer vacation days. The two companies pay their employees an average hourly wage of $16, including overtime pay.

Germany’s DIW economic institute cut its forecast for that country’s first quarter growth to 0.1% from 0.4%. They stated “the economy does not appear to be at the start of a noticeable recovery.” The government of Japan revised downward its fourth GDP growth to 6.4% from 7%.

According to the ICSU-UBS weekly chain store index in the U.S., the index fell 0.3% in the week ended March 6. This is the third straight week that sales have declined or remained flat.

Globally, this past year the market for Bluetooth equipped products nearly doubled. Similar growth is anticipated for 2004.

Last week, Footstar Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Following the closing of 165 locations, the company will operate 352 stores. Prior to the closings, the company employed more than 14,000 people in 40 states.

Alan Greenspan: “The concern is not so much about Social Security. The outlook for Medicare, however, is much more difficult to assess.”

On Monday evening a five-year budget was approved by Akron school board members. About 180 jobs could be cut, including 132 teaching positions.

The Alliance@IBM has recently received information about IBM Global Services’ AMS organization’s plans to reduce professional salaries. Supposedly, the objectives of the program are to “classify employees in correct position code/band/job family”, and to “reshape the IGS organization to more of a ‘pyramid’ shape versus the existing ‘diamond’ shape.” Discussions are focusing on a 10% reduction in pay. Other forms of compensation will be affected as a result.

BB & T announced plans to cut 1,000 jobs. Volkswagen will cut 5,000 jobs.

According to the BLS, in December 2003, employer costs for employee compensation averaged $33.91 per hour worked in State and local government. Wages and salaries averaged $23.56 per hour, while benefits averaged $10.35. What benefits accrued to the taxpayers? Rising government employment represents a cancerous growth. Hopefully, outsourcing will hit the government sector, and soon.

3/9/04 The Blue Dog Coalition And The Debt Limit

Richard Rahn, Discovery Institute senior fellow and Cato Institute adjunct scholar: “One reason for the slow employment growth has been the rapid growth in government spending. Some people think government spending creates jobs (the old Keynesian myth) but, in fact, government spending reduces more jobs in the private sector than it can create in the government sector. The reason is private sector jobs tend to be more productive than government jobs, and there is a considerable cost (ie, dead weight loss) when the government extracts monies from the private sector by taxing or borrowing to pay for the government jobs. Therefore, countries with large government sectors, like Germany and France, tend to have much higher unemployment rates than countries with smaller government sectors. Slowing the growth in government spending would speed job growth.”

The Blue Dog Coalition is a group of 36 moderate to conservative Democrats in the 108th Congress. One month ago, Charlie Stenholm of Texas, Blue Dog co-chair for Policy, stated “our nation is being threatened with an economic perfect storm consisting of record deficits largely financed by foreign investors, large and growing trade deficits, and the approaching retirement of the baby boom generation. Unfortunately, the president’s budget fails to prepare our nation to deal with these economic dangers. His budget leaves our nation with large structural deficits that will be on the rise after the 5 years budget window used by OMB, just as the cost of the baby boom retirement hits.”

Rep. Tanner (TN), co-chair of the Blue Dog Budget Task Force: “We cannot write a blank check for the Administration to raise the statutory debt limit and add to the burden on American taxpayers. The President and Congress owe it to future generations to return the government to the days of fiscal responsibility and budget stability.”

Rep. Loretta Sanchez (CA): “Raising our government’s debt limit will only further worsen our existing budgetary problems. If the average American were to continue to raise the limit on a personal credit card to accommodate overspending, we would call it ‘irresponsible.’ How can we justify the same action using the hard-earned tax dollars of those very same Americans?”

In June 2002, the debt limit was raised from $5.950 trillion to $6.4 trillion. In May 2003, the debt limit was increased to $7.3484 trillion. Last week, Brian Roseboro, U.S. Treasury assistant secretary, stated the present debt limit would be reached in June 2004. This is the first time in our nation’s history that a president will have asked the Congress to raise the debt ceiling in three consecutive years. A year ago at this time, Greenspan told the Congress they should consider doing away with the debt limit, and stated it “has never in my judgment been successful in doing what it is supposed to have been doing, namely constrain spending.” Roseboro agreed with this statement and O’Neill called the debt ceiling “an abomination.” Actually, the abomination is the administration’s strident disregard for this generation’s and future generations’ economic well being. Out-of-control government spending must stop. I recommend the debt ceiling not be raised. Bring the government to a halt. Make the Congress immediately cut back on expenditures. They can begin with salary cuts for all members of Congress and all members of the Cabinet and those working in the White House. They can reduce the size of staff members and assistants to those in Congress. The Atkins diet might be popular and it might promote animal fat and pork products as being healthy. That does not include government fat and pork. The latter will soon deliver hardening of the economic arteries for all Americans. I can hear the screams from all over the U.S. I am aware that not raising the debt ceiling risks theoretical default on what are viewed as risk-free U.S. Treasury securities. I hate to scare you, but our government is busted. It’s been the Bank of Japan that has purchased approximately $100 billion of U.S treasury bills and bonds during January and February of this year. They are funding this administration’s spending habit. They are funding our budget deficit. Our nation is in a negative cash flow position. If the U.S.A. were a common stock, no analyst would recommend it as a purchase. It would be deemed a speculative grade security. The Bank of Japan cannot be the economic savior for the U.S. every month. Here’s a warning for all believing otherwise. Japan’s machinery orders fell 12.2% in January, the biggest drop in more than 3 years.

For those who still believe in the tooth fairy, through the end of February, the IRS reported the average tax refund had only risen $94 to $2,230 from the prior year’s $2,136. The $94 should be erased quickly with $2 per gallon gasoline.

Year after year Clintwood, Va. and surrounding Dickenson County have the highest unemployment rate in the state. In 2001, Travelocity signed a six-year lease to operate a call center in Clintwood. About 275 employees were hired at $8 per hour and higher, plus benefits. Travelocity announced plans to leave Clintwood. A corporate spokesperson stated routing calls through India would save $10 million in the first year alone.

In a survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business trade group, only 13% of small businesses stated plans to hire, down from 17% in January. Small companies create most jobs. There are approximately 6 million small employers with about 50% of all workers. Rising health insurance costs have contributed to the damper on hiring.

Financial Times: “The U.S. has had a jobless expansion for more than two years. It will soon start to test the limits of its durability.”

Greenspan: “Overall, the household sector seems to be in good shape.” According to CardWeb.com, the average household credit card debt is $9,200. In 2003, personal bankruptcies rose 5.6% to 1.63 million. The average client seeking help from the National Foundation for Credit Counseling, the nation’s largest organization of nonprofit credit counseling agencies, has more than $15,700 in unsecured consumer debt and $30,000 in gross income.

According to the Nellie Mae National Student Loan Survey, almost 1 in 5 college and professional school graduates states career plans have changed because of student debt. In 1997, the average undergraduate came away with $11,400 in debt. In 2002, average indebtedness had risen 66% to $18,900 according to the survey. During the same time, graduate student debt increased from $21,000 to $31,700. For law and medical students the average debt is $91,700.

National Mortgage News reported yesterday that Des Moines-based Principal Financial Group is interested in selling its residential mortgage unit, Principal is the nation’s 11th-largest lender and, at the end of 2003, serviced $119 billion in loans. Early in 2003, they sold their retail mortgage operations. They have 1,500 employees.

Paula Ausick, SVP/Director of Brand Equities at Foote Cone & Belding, stated that, those who are politically opposed to Wal-Mart, are the second most frequent shoppers at their stores. She observed that “Wal-Mart isn’t considered a discount store to its customers. It’s become the definition of a regular, retail store. What’s more, Wal-Mart has established discount pricing as the retail price level. This has caused shifts in the retail landscape where ‘discount’ now means dollar stores rather than Wal-Mart.”

On 3/16/03 VP Cheney stated “we believe Saddam has, in fact, reconstituted nuclear weapons.” Jafar Dhia Jafar co-authored with Noman Saad Eddin al-Noamimi, a former director-general of Iraq’s nuclear program, a paper on the destruction of all banned weapons in Iraq. Yesterday, he stated “Saddam Hussein issued orders in July 1991 for the destruction of all banned weapons, in addition to the systems to produce them. It was carried out by the Special Republican Guard forces.” The two further stated “we can confirm with absolute certainty that Iraq no longer possessed any weapons of mass destruction after its unilateral destruction of all its components in the summer of 1991, and did not resume any such activity because it no longer had the foundations to resume such activity.”

ING economist Tim Condon stated “Thailand and India may overtake China as the region’s fastest-growing economies in 2004.”

3/8/04 “Strong Economies Create Jobs”

John Challenger of Challenger, Gray & Christmas: “The fact is, we are going to have to get used to slow job creation in this country. While the politicians war over the number of jobs they expect to be created in the economy by the end of the year, the reality is that we will probably not see a true job market boom until the next economic cycle around 2008.”

Peter McTeague of RBS Greenwich Capital Markets was the top-ranked U.S. government debt strategist last year in Institutional Investor magazine’s poll. With job creation falling below the level anticipated by economists for the fourth consecutive month, coupled with the prices of consumer goods and services excluding food and energy only rising at a 0.7% rate in the fourth quarter, McTeague stated “this should drive home to people that the Fed’s not going to raise rates, certainly not at the pace or magnitude people expect.”

Sanjay Verma, head of government bond trading at Morgan Stanley, stated “the Fed is going to be on hold for longer than anyone expected.”

Warren Buffett: “Prevailing exchange rates will not lead to a material let-up in our trade deficit.”

After Brazil and Turkey, Argentina is the IMF’s third largest debtor, and the country accounts for 15.2% of the Fund’s outstanding credit.

Lee Kwang-ho of Hyundai Heavy Industries remarked “we have 180 ships on our order book. That’s enough to keep the yard busy for three years.”

Guo Shuqing, head of China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange: “Our study shows that the impact of the exchange rate on the economy and employment has been over-exaggerated. China’s managed floating exchange rate system conforms to the realities of China and it will continue for a long time to come. Betting on an RMB appreciation is likely to (end up paying in) an enormous price.”

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, since 1999, Michigan has lost 195,000 manufacturing jobs.

Boeing creates 1.7 jobs per employee. Microsoft adds 2 jobs per worker. AT&T Wireless creates 1.5 jobs for each person on the payroll. Wireless workers on average received $73,400 in compensation in 2003. How many of the 5,700 AT&T Wireless employees in the state of Washington will be cut after their acquisition by Cingular? What will be the multiplier effect?

TeleTech Holdings recently told 790 employees in Topeka, Kansas that they’ll lose their jobs because of a contract that came to an end. A few days later they announced its call-center was closing. The company is not doing well. The Topeka call-center and customer service facility opened in 1999. The state of Kansas provided a $2 million training grant. TeleTech employs 28,000 worldwide. Topeka mayor James McClinton stated “in a town of 125,000, when 790 of them lose their jobs, that’s pretty tough.” These jobs in Topeka will end April 2.

According to an Ernst & Young study, Indian telecom operators could see a jump in revenues from $9 billion in 2002 to $25 billion in 2007. This would easily make India the second biggest telecom market in the world, stated Sanjay Mehta, Ernst & Young director. With weak land-line infrastructure, and often a 5 year wait for a land-line, the 1 billion plus population in India is an inviting market for the cell phone industry.

Yesterday, more than 300,000 chickens on Maryland’s Eastern Shore were destroyed in an effort to stem a fresh outbreak of avian flu. The poultry sector represents about a third of Maryland’s $1.4 billion-a-year agriculture industry. Sales of live poultry have been stopped at the state’s only two live-auction operations.

In a recent Herald/St. Petersburg Times Florida survey, a majority of voters believe the United States is “moving in the wrong direction” under Bush. More than half of Florida voters disapprove of his handling of the economy, and only 46% approve of his leadership in Iraq. Kerry holds a 49 to 43 percent lead in the poll. Diane Chisholm, 60, a Naples retiree and registered Republican stated “I know he (Bush) can’t create jobs, but he can create an atmosphere that creates jobs, and that hasn’t happened. He’s given us tons of promises, but he hasn’t delivered.” Fifty seven percent of the independents, as well as the same percentage of women, expressed they would vote for Kerry.

Alan Blinder, a Princeton University economist and a former Fed governor: “From an historical perspective, the lack of job growth is stunning, given what is happening to GDP.” He stated the risk of a consumer spending slowdown is “the biggest hazard to this expansion. Every month we go with labor income stagnating raises the hazard level.”

3/7/04 The Float

The float reflects the temporary cash reserves available for alternative use. As of the close of business on Friday, March 5, the Federal Reserve Bank headed by Alan Greenspan had a temporary float of $15 billion. Berkshire Hathaway, run by Warren Buffett and Charles Munger, had a float of $36 billion. Microsoft Corp., headed by Bill Gates, had a float of $56 billion. What does this all mean? I guess it has different significance depending on one’s frame of reference. For me, the float represents great importance. It signifies the daily lifeblood of an organization.

Bush: “The economy is getting stronger. We’ve overcome a lot.” Not your administration, yet. In this week’s poll conducted by the Chicago Sun-Times sister newspaper, 50% of those polled stated they are not better off today, and 39% believed the nation was in a recession. Kerry leads Bush in the Illinois poll by a margin of 52% to 39%.

Berkshire Hathaway will pay $3.3 billion in federal tax on its 2003 income, about 2.5% of the total paid by all U.S. corporations, wrote Warren Buffett. He stated “if only 540 taxpayers paid the amount Berkshire will pay, no other individual or corporation would have to pay anything to Uncle Sam.”

March 31 is the fiscal year-end for Japanese companies. The Bank of Japan will do all that is necessary to keep a lid on the upward valuation of the yen versus the U.S. dollar. They want to make year-end profits appear as strong as possible. Taking advantage of this concentrated month of March pro-dollar purchasing has produced some very satisfying currency profits over the years. It is highly predictable behavior during times of yen strength.

According to researchers at UC Berkeley’s Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics, 1 in 6 jobs in the Silicon Valley are at risk of being sent abroad. These economists estimate that 1 in 7 San Francisco jobs could be exported. They identified the following characteristics that put a job at risk of being outsourced: no face-to-face customer service requirement; the product created is mainly information; work is done via telephone and Internet; low barriers to setting up new facilities; little social networking required; and large differences in wages between locations. The researchers found 37 job categories ripe for being moved overseas. They include computer workers, insurance claim processors, radiology technicians, paralegals, customer service, and processing tax returns.

Carol Bartz, CEO and chairman of Autodesk: “When you can get great talent at 20% of the costs, it isn’t about waving the American flag. It’s about doing what’s right to have a good company.” Last fall, Autodesk announced it would cut as many as 650 employees. At the same time, the company was hiring at its new Shanghai development center. PeopleSoft recently stated an intention to hire 1,000 additional workers in India. Hewlett-Packard has increased staffing in India to 8,000. Oracle has hired more workers in India, and now employs 4,200 in that location.

Nanotechnology is viewed as one of the next great avenues for future innovation and hiring growth. Ron Hira, public policy professor at the Rochester Institute of Technology stated China is right behind the U.S. in terms of technical papers published on nanotech. He observed that, China’s cost advantages and knowledge, position it well to compete for nanotech jobs.

Zimmer Holdings is closing its Austin, Texas manufacturing plant. About 550 employees will lose their jobs when the hip and knee plant production is transferred to Zimmer’s plants in Indiana, Switzerland, and Puerto Rico. The company chose to close the Austin plant in an effort to streamline manufacturing costs.

Perdue Farms hopes to save money by closing a chicken processing facility in Defuniak Springs, Florida. The company wants to shift production to Georgia where its operations are more efficient. The closure will mean a loss of 392 jobs.

Vought Aircraft Industries is planning to close its Nashville facility, cutting 1,000 workers. The company has been consolidating operations at its Dallas headquarters.

Tampa, Florida-based Sykes Corp. has been opening new call centers overseas. They are closing their Pikeville, Kentucky call center and eliminating 341 jobs.

Northwest Airlines will close its remaining 25 U.S. ticket offices in late March. They are located in 16 cities in 16 states. The company has determined the city ticket offices are no longer cost-effective. Northwest did not state how many employees would lose their jobs.

Corporate cost cutting is here to stay. Closing operations, adding workers overseas, and increased innovation and competition from companies in other countries are all here to stay. Regulatory developments, partnerships, acquisition objectives, and defensive pricing strategies will affect the future competitive landscape and the ability to execute effectively and with excellence.

3/6/04 Gasping And Spinning

In December 2001, Martha Stewart sold 3,928 shares of ImClone. Yesterday A New York City jury found her guilty on four counts. Chappell Hartridge, a 47 year-old juror in the case, stated “maybe it’s a victory for the little guy who loses money in the markets because of these types of transactions, the people who lose money in 401(K) plans.” Chappell, I hope you are not suggesting that ImClone stock is suitable for such an investment plan. I have a problem with a juror reading about this case during the trial. He stated “you see it on the front pages. You see it on the subway.” I am not condoning insider trading; however, unless I missed it, the government did not file criminal charges against Stewart for insider trading. She faces civil insider-trading charges brought by the SEC. After the verdict was announced, there were gasps, and not just in the courthouse. On the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, those who had speculated on a positive verdict got crushed financially. Beware of the “beyond a reasonable doubt” standard. It may have a different meaning for many people.

John Snow: “The administration is not satisfied with today’s job creation numbers.” John, there weren’t any jobs created without the 20,000 state government workers added to payrolls. I have often wondered how one can add a worker when their state has a budget deficit.

Elaine Chao; “As the president has said many times, we’re not going to rest until every American who wants a job can find one.” Chao gloated that the unemployment rate had not risen. She stated “the unemployment rate of 5.6% continues to be below the averages of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.” Chao, the reason might be that the labor participation rate fell below 66% for the first time in 16 years. When Bush came into office, the labor participation rate was 67.1%. Had the rate been the same 67.1% yesterday, the unemployment rate would be 7.3%. Martha Stewart may go to jail for lying about a stock tip. How many Americans have you harmed by your misleading unemployment statements in our country? Chao, you should be held accountable. A total of 392,000 workers left the labor force in February.

Yesterday, when the February employment numbers were released, many gasps were heard. What do you think it’s like for the 484,000 discouraged workers who dropped out of the labor force? That number increased by 52,000 from the prior month. January’s employment estimate was revised downward by 23,000 jobs. The December numbers were reduced from 112,000 to 97,000 and November’s from 16,000 to 8,000. Are you aware that 22.1% of all the unemployed were idle for 6 months or more in 2003? According to the Economic Policy Institute, this is the worst annual rate in 20 years. We should not forget that Congress allowed the federal extension of state unemployment benefits to expire on December 21. Since that time, approximately 800,000 people have lost their benefits. The EPI study shows that college graduates make up a disproportionate share of the long-term unemployed. While college grads contributed 15.3% of the unemployed, they represented 19.1% of the long-term unemployed. The study stated that, in 48 out of the 50 states, jobs in higher-paying industries are shrinking. From the end of 2001 to the end of 2003, the industries losing jobs paid wages of $16.92 on average, while the industries gaining jobs paid an average of $14.65. The average working week has been reduced to 33.8 hours. According to the Labor Department’s Current Population Survey, Hispanics garnered 64% of the new jobs created in 2003. A Pew Hispanic Center study stated new Hispanic immigrants worked on many home building sites. These jobs put downward pressure on their wages. It should be noted that employment in construction dropped by 24,000 in February.

February marked the 43rd consecutive decline in factory employment. Even the service sector was weak with only a net gain of 46,000 workers. Overall, total employment in February declined to 138.3 million. O. If you read that employment increased in February or over the past six months, write down their name, address, and phone number. We’ll hold them accountable along with Chao and other members of the administration. Please do not forget that 1.7 million people were not counted as unemployed. They had not actively searched for the four weeks preceding yesterday’s report. This number is about the same as the one reported a year earlier. Just as a reminder, a year earlier was a few weeks before we invaded Iraq. Business stunk the house out and businesses were not hiring. We need to remember history. Mark Zandi of Economy.com adds history states that the jobs will appear “but history has not been a very reliable guide through this period.”

House Democrat Whip Deny Hoyer: “George W. Bush ought to be pleased that he doesn’t have to face the American people in Donald Trump’s board room today to defend this anemic employment report because the two words he surely would hear are – ‘You’re fired.’”

Congressman Chaka Fattah (D-PA): “Job growth is the definition of a good economy. Congressional leaders are called to repair the breach since the president has proven himself unwilling or unable… a job summit by congressional leaders would provide confidence that the president’s failure to create jobs is not the final word on real help for real people.” Representing Pennsylvania, Fattah has reason for concern. February was the ninth consecutive monthly decline for nonfarm jobs in his state.

Bush is spending the weekend in Texas, his home state. If I were Bush, I’d be plenty concerned. Yesterday, the Texas Workforce Commission revised unemployment data. In Houston, for example, Houston lost 16,2000 jobs last year instead of the 8,700 job loss originally reported. It gets worse. It gets a lot worse. Between December 2002 and December 2003, the commission had reported a net gain of 45,611 jobs. I guess the adding machine was out of whack. In fact, Texas actually lost 38,889 jobs, a swing of 84,500 jobs. How many other states have made similar mistakes? You know Texas has plenty of company. We are talking about government workers who specialize in data revisions. When all the data has been revised, you can bet there will have been net job losses throughout the U.S. over the past six months. Paul Murphy is CEO of Southwest Bank of Texas. He stated “I think Houston is already doing better than most.” Paul, that statement gives me comfort. Houston has racked up 24 consecutive months of year-over-year monthly job losses.

Under Secretary of the Treasury Roseboro stated the nation’s debt limit may be reached by June. It could have been worse. It might have been May. We should be thankful for little things. George W. gets an A+ for spending. He does it up Texas big time. Kathleen Bostjanic, a senior economist at Merrill Lynch, stated “until the job market improves, spending is at risk.” Kathleen, that’s not the case for George W. He is spending your money.

According to the Consumer Credit Index, over four out of ten Americans are making just minimum payments or no payments on their credit card balances.

According to the Yale School of Management’s opinion poll, currently 95% of individuals and close to 92% of financial institutions believe that the U.S. stock market will rise over the next 12 months. Didn’t George W. go to Yale?

Jack Guynn, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta: “But just as a doctor shouldn’t overmedicate the patient, one should always be sensitive to the potential unintended side effects of maintaining an accommodative policy for too long. Put differently, if my forecast for robust economic growth materializes, then, at some point, a fed funds rate of 1 percent will no longer be the best policy…my own view is that job growth will pick up in coming months, and the unemployment rate will continue to drop.” I agree it will continue to drop as more Americans leave the labor force. Guynn stated “there’s evidence that businesses are feeling more pressure to expand payrolls.” Hospitals are not feeling the pressure. Hospitals lost 5,000 jobs in February.

3/5/04 Consuming And Borrowing

It has been proven that peak spending occurs between the ages of 35 and 54. As our population ages, and it is, the level of spending should begin to lessen. That would be good news. Consumer spending as a percentage of GDP currently stands at 70%+. Only the UK is close at 68%. Italy and Spain are at 60% with Japan and France at 55%.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve reported that households expanded their debt by 10.4% in 2003 to $9.5 trillion. Not to be outdone, the Federal government borrowing expanded by 10.9% to $4.1 trillion, the fastest pace in 21 years. You might check to see whether your boxers or panties have been mortgaged. Of course, there is no reason to be concerned. Bush and Kerry are both fiscal conservatives. The nation’s debt now stands close to $23 trillion. The pundits on Wall Street are hanging on the February jobs report. Most don’t even have an awareness of the individual state employment problems. They are willing to rely on government figures to dictate the direction of their investment dollars. Schmucks could never be barred from Wall Street. Broad and Wall would become a ghost town.

Talking about the employment report, let’s say that 140,000 net new jobs were created in February. They weren’t, but let’s say they were. If the nation’s workforce expands by 140,000+ per month, then creating 140,000 jobs does not produce a change in the workforce. In fact, if those discouraged workers smell that hiring has picked up, they could come out of the woodwork and begin to apply for jobs, thus making the unemployment rate shoot up. Therefore, Bush is in a bad spot. If hiring does not improve, he’s in duck soup. If it does pick up, so will the unemployment rate. All the money in his re-election coffers won’t change that problem.

David Kay had an interview with the Guardian and stated it was time for Bush “to come clean with the American people” about WMD. He observed “when you don’t say you got it wrong, it leads to the general belief that you manipulated the intelligence and so you did it for some other purpose.” Kay stated he now believes any weapons Iraq did possess were destroyed by 1998. In addition, Resolution 1441 was the UN resolution used by the U.S. and the UK to justify the war in Iraq. Attorney General Lord Goldsmith’s advice conceded 1441 did not automatically authorize war.

Vincente Fox will visit President Bush’s Crawford ranch this weekend. They will announce Mexicans with visas will be allowed briefly to visit border areas without the checks that are part of a new border security program. Mexicans with routine border crossing cards would use them for visits that last no longer than 72 hours and require travel of no more than 25 miles into the U.S. In return, Mexico has lifted its ban on U.S. deboned meat from cows under 30 months of age into that country. Next to Japan, Mexico is our largest export market for beef. It’s almost as good a deal as getting a second round draft choice for Terrell Owens.

Antioch is one of the fastest growing areas in California’s Contra Costa County. The Antioch school district is sending notices to 13 elementary school vice principals, 13 computer teachers, 9 music teachers, and 14 physical education instructors that they may be laid off prior to the 2004-2005 school year. Without across-the-board pay cuts and other employee concessions, the Antioch school district will become financially insolvent by the end of next school year. They have a $7 million budget deficit. This year, the district’s general fund budget is about $132 million.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao gave his annual state of the nation address today. He took a cue from Bush and intends to cut taxes and also increase subsidies in rural areas. He stated “solving the problems of agriculture, villages and farmers is one of the most crucial parts of our entire work.” In 2003 China’s GDP grew by 9.1% and he intends to reduce this year’s growth rate to 7%. What impact will that have on Intel and GM? China is presently the world’s sixth largest economy. Wen grasps the significance of the wealth gap between rich and poor and observed “rural incomes have grown too slowly; the task of increasing employment and social security is arduous; development in different regions of the country is not balanced; the income gap is too wide among some members of society; and pressure on resources and the environment is mounting.”

For the first time since the start of the Iraq war, New York crude oil rose above $37 a barrel. In the next few days, record gasoline prices will be found at our nation’s gas stations. Venezuela is one of our four biggest crude oil suppliers. With growing unrest in Venezuela, it is hoped their crude shipments to our shores will not be interrupted.

According to Cutting Edge Information, in the past five years the generic drug industry has grown from $21 billion to $40 billion.

On Sunday, SK Williams plans to permanently close its metal finishing and plating plant in Wauwatosa, Wisconsin and eliminate 38 jobs. This may not qualify for a mass layoff, but it will impact this community and the workers losing their jobs.

Revisiting today’s job report, we should not overlook the revision to January’s increase to 112,000. That number was fictitious, and the revision will simply compound the lunacy. It’s another WMD. They haven’t existed for years.

GM announced a few years back that 2004 would be the last model year for Oldsmobiles. They have already stopped making the Intrigue, Aurora, and Bravada SUV. That only leaves the Alero passenger car and the Silhouette minivan.

Justice Brandeis on privacy: “The right to be left alone. The most comprehensive of rights and the right most valued by civilian men.” Without credible evidence, it would be irrational to play the terror card with every American’s right to privacy.

Intel and GM have one thing in common-- an inventory buildup.

3/4/04 Nanotubes

President Bush: “We’ve achieved great things over the past three years…a positive vision for creating jobs and promoting opportunity.”

Federal Reserve Beige Book: “Employment has been growing slowly in most Federal Reserve districts.”

New York City’s January unemployment rate rose to 8.4% from December’s 8.1%. Trump must have fired many workers.

The ISM February employment index slipped to 52.7 from 53.4 in January. The index of new orders for non-manufacturing companies fell to 60.3 in February from 64.9 in January. Order backlogs fell to 53 from 53.5. The inventory index fell to 49 from the prior month’s 49.5. The index of prices paid fell to 57.3 from January’s 59.7. It should be noted that the ISM index surveys U.S. service industries and this sector comprises approximately 85% of our GDP.

Costco will open 18 more stores in this fiscal year, down from a previous target of 25 stores.

Chick-fil-A, the Atlanta-based food chain, has begun the most aggressive expansion in company history. They plan on building more than 70 free-standing restaurants in 2004. Currently, the chain operates more than 1,130 restaurants in 37 states and Washington, DC. The company reported 2003 system-wide sales of more than $1.53 billion, an 11.8% rise over its 2002 figures.

The Georgia Department of Labor reported that, in January, the state experienced a loss of 62,800 jobs. Much of the rise in unemployment was due to cutbacks in the retail trade and other service-related industries. As we go from state to state, it is hard to see how the BLS reported an increase of 117,000 jobs in the U.S. in January. Adding up the numbers, I come out with a net loss of jobs. Then again, I count the actual numbers. I’ve made my rounds for February. I’ve gone from state to state. There are about 60 economists projecting an employment gain of 150,000+ jobs for our nation in February. If they count the jobs added by U.S. companies in China, then maybe the number can be reached. The last time I checked China had not merged with the U.S. Only their currency is pegged to ours.

The Business Roundtable’s March 2004 CEO Economic Outlook Survey shows that, on average, CEOs expect real GDP growth to be 3.7% in 2004. A total of 33% of CEOs are projecting their companies will add jobs this year. Forty five percent anticipate no change and twenty two percent foresee a decrease. In other words, a net ten percent are looking to hire more employees in 2004. That doesn’t bode well for those expecting big gains in employment.

The unemployment rate in the euro nations remained at 8.8% in January, the highest since January 2000.

Houston-based Carbon Nanotechnologies Inc. built its first pilot plant three years ago. The plant could produce one pound of nanotubes a year. Six pilot plants later, they are close to making 20 pounds a day. Later this year they will complete a unit capable of continuous operation, making 100 pounds a day. In late 2005, they hope to begin manufacturing at least 1,000 or more pounds per day. The company’s President and CEO stated “this isn’t going to be a $1 million-a-year business. It’s going to be a giant business.” Yesterday, they announced a patent license with NEC and signed a deal with Sumitomo to market its nanotubes in Japan. A carbon nanotube is 100 times stronger than steel, at a fraction of the weight, and has high heat resistance. Near-term applications would be for fuel cells and flat-panel displays. Longer-term applications include ultra-high-speed computing and high-performance materials. I am looking forward to a nanotube powering my laptop and my cell phone continuously for weeks at a time. Many challenges remain. Many scientists believe major advances in this field are at least five years away. I do not share that view. I would be more than pleased to step up to the plate and risk my capital by investing in Carbon Nanotechnologies Inc. The quality and quantity of nanotubes will change the polymer world. That’s good enough for me.

The Consumers Union auto testing center bought approximately 50 new vehicles for testing last year. They reported most of the vehicles were recalled.

3/3/04 The Winner Is. The Loser Is.

Toyoto is the landslide victor. They had the best-ever U.S. February sales of 146,783 vehicles, an increase of 17.7% over the year ago month. Their executive vice president and COO issued a word of caution, and stated “rising fuel prices may begin to impact the market if they continue their climb.” Their Lexus division also had record results for the month of February, and recorded sales up 34.1%. Meanwhile, inventories of unsold vehicles for GM, Ford, and Chrysler continue to mount. It should be noted that, according to Edmunds.com, the average difference between MSRP and net price for vehicles sold in January 2004 was $624 less than in July 2003. Incentives for GM, Ford, and Chrysler range from $4,200 to $4,400 per vehicle. The difference in management abilities between Toyota and the U.S. big three is wide, and getting larger all the time.

Warner Music Group announced it will lay off 20% of its workforce or 1,000 jobs. Unifi announced facility closures and downsizing, and reductions of salaried workforce at its headquarters in Greensboro, North Carolina. The company faces excess capacity in the U.S. textile market, rising material costs, and continued pressure from imports, stated its President and CEO. They plan on cutting the company workforce from 4,100 to 3,700. Included will be the closing of the Latamahaw, North Carolina location, which produces air-jet textured polyester products. There is some good news on the hiring front. Applied Materials intends to add 500 workers in 2004.

Bunge North America announced it will temporarily idle production at its soybean processing facility in Destrehan, La., in the early part of March. Its President and CEO stated “unfortunately, the smaller than anticipated U.S. soybean crop in 2003 coupled with rapid U.S. soybean exports have significantly decreased our margins at Destrehan.”

A study by Global Insight found that equipment investment expanded by $229 billion throughout the economy, creating 3-5 million jobs, and producing as much as $300 billion additional GDP annually between 1997 and 2002.

Since the discovery of mad cow disease in Washington in late December, 65 countries have shut their borders to our meat export sales. Gary Smith, a meat scientist from Colorado State University, reports that the USDA’s lead veterinarian compared testing every animal slaughtered to testing every man, woman, and child in the United States for prostate cancer. You can’t expect greater intelligence from a government worker. Most are walking around with a severe case of mental castration.

Speaking in New York yesterday, Greenspan tried to calm the currency markets about the dangers of a broad dollar decline. Someone might have mentioned to him that the euro has recently dropped to an 11-week low and that the yen is trading at a four-month low versus the dollar. When the head of the Fed is so far behind the curve, it gives the impression that he is a mental midget or saying it more gently, a loser. He didn’t help his cause by keeping rates at 1% for so long because, he argued, “this is a very special case that we are dealing with…clearly, we have kept the federal funds rate where it is because we have good reasons.” The markets were concerned with his remark that the 1% rates will eventually have to rise. Any idiot could arrive at that conclusion. Their real concern should be with the words “with good reasons.” The Fed is scared stiff. They have tried everything to stimulate the economy so that employment would rise. In 2002, there were 1,466,823 job-cut announcements. In 2003, the number declined 16% to 1,236,426. However, in December 2003, the number of job-cut announcements slightly exceeded those in the prior year period. Even though the number declined to 77,250 in February 2004, the monthly average remains above 100,000 over the last six months. Something is wrong with the economy when workers are left behind month after month. For those in manufacturing, it's four months away from four years. John Challenger pointed out yesterday that “we’ll see an occasional month here and there with strong jobs growth, but consistent job creation is unlikely.” Ford’s senior economist, Jarlath Costello, stated “the sluggish labor market undermined (consumer) sentiment somewhat in February.” It is well to remember that, the percentage of people in the Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence survey who state jobs are “hard to get”, has remained near the highest level in a decade. The average monthly growth of our nation’s labor force is about 140,000. It’s no wonder that it is taking longer to find a job, any job.

3/2/04 There Are Still Troubled Times In Ohio

State officials recently released January’s unemployment rate for Ohio. It was the same 6.2% rate as in December. For three months before that, the jobless rate had dipped below the 6% mark. The Ohio Department of Job & Family Services indicated some Ohioans dropped out of the job market. Individuals who aren’t looking for work aren’t factored into the government’s unemployment calculations. As James Newton, chief economist advisor for the Commerce National Bank in Columbus, pointed out, “the discouraged worker effect can make the jobless rate look better than it is. It makes you feel kind of warm and fuzzy for about half a second, then you notice things aren’t that great.” In Ohio, the unemployment rate increased in December largely because there were more holiday job seekers than available jobs, stated Tom Hayes, director of Job & Family Services I Ohio. Some economists in Ohio suggest that, in 2004, businesses will buy equipment with an eye toward efficiency, allowing them to get more work from the same number of workers. Continuing productivity gains can offset the need to hire more workers.

President Bush: “All the signs in our economy…are very strong. And that’s positive for somebody who might be wondering about whether he or she is going to find a job.” Yesterday, Gateway Computer stated it will reduce its workforce to “mid-5,000” from the present 7,400.

North Carolina’s annual unemployment rate was 6.5%, down from 6.7% in 2002, according to the BLS. Only nine states and the District of Columbia had higher unemployment rates. It has been suggested that North Carolina has many discouraged workers.

U.S. manufacturers have experienced 44 straight months of layoffs. The sector has shed almost 3 million jobs since mid-2000. Job cuts are not confined to manufacturing. Guardian Life Insurance, for example, began outsourcing IT to India in March 2001, and now sees annual savings of $12.5 million. According to E-Business Strategies, in general, a company can save at least 50% in operational expenses by moving call-center functions to countries where wages and turnover are lower. Even start-up and venture-capital backed companies are looking at offshore alternatives. John Challenger believes “the cost savings and efficiency gains achieved through outsourcing will in fact free up resources that can be used for innovation and to expand other areas of business, thus creating new opportunities and jobs in America.”

Bush administration officials have projected that the economy would produce 2.6 million jobs this year. The Philadelphia Fed’s survey indicated that private sector economists have a more modest prediction of about 1.1 million new payroll jobs this year. More to the point, however, might be a breakdown of what those new jobs are like. Are they minimum wage, are they full-time, are they hourly, and what will the average income level be from these new jobs? I study investment in capacity expansion and not just investment in new equipment to boost productivity. With capacity utilization remaining around 76%, there is little need to expand or build new plants. When Wal-Mart opens a new store, they hire more people. They open more stores than any other company in the U.S., and that’s why they are the largest private sector employer by a wide margin. When plants are built in China, employees are hired overseas. I don’t see new plants being constructed in Ohio.

The ISM’s latest new orders index declined to 66.4 from 71.1 in January. The production index fell to 63.9 from 71.1. The prices paid index jumped to 81.5 from the prior month’s 75.5.

In the San Francisco Bay Area unleaded gasoline is $2.26 per gallon at the local stations. Do you think that price will cut into consumer spending in other areas, such as, dining out? After adjusting for inflation, the rise in the nation’s consumer spending was 0.1% in January.

Yesterday, Houston’s Mayor White stated his city’s pension funding shortfall may be closer to $1.5 billion over 18 years and not $1 billion as earlier estimated. The city of Houston may have to issue bonds just to cover the rapidly escalating pension costs.

Government subsidized health insurance for the poor covered 42.4 million people in 2003. Medicaid enrollment rose by 1.6 million people or 3.9% last year, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. States pay 39% of Medicaid costs and the federal government 61%.

The savings rate increased to 1.8% in January from the prior month’s 1.4%. This gain is modest and the present savings rate is modest by historical standards; however, one cannot expect the trend of consumption to turn to savings on a dime. It takes time for a trend change. The same is true for hiring. After 44 months of job losses, it’s unrealistic to assume significant improvement would occur in a matter of a few months.

3/1/04 A Position Of Responsibility

Today, for the first time, the EU imposed sanctions on the U.S. There will be an extra 5% duty on selected U.S. goods. There will be a 1% increase in the duties each month through 2005, or until the U.S. replaces the tax breaks ruled illegal by the WTO in 2002. It’s hard to imagine that differences could not have been settled within the last two years. In addition to the problems surrounding the foreign sales corporation provision, there are possible sanctions looming with respect to U.S. antidumping legislation, particularly the Byrd amendment that permits the retention of antidumping proceeds generated from foreign competitors. The overall trade disputes could be easily settled by removing double taxation on U.S. corporations. Companies pay taxes to foreign governments on earnings made in overseas countries through a foreign subsidiary, and the same corporations pay taxes to the U.S. government on earnings made in this nation. In addition, lowering the tax rate of 35% would alleviate the problem and lessen the need to look for tax loopholes. In the end the electorate is at fault. We have placed a do-nothing Congress in a position of power.

While we have trade sanctions imposed, Wal-Mart goes about its business. Today, they paid $300 million to Ahold and purchased Bompreco, a retail chain in northeastern Brazil with 118 units comprised of hypermarkets, supermarkets, and mini markets. This acquisition will meld nicely with the 13 Wal-Mart supercenters, 10 SAM’S CLUBS, and two Wal-Mart Todo Dias currently in Brazil. It gives Wal-Mart Brazil its first stores in the Northeast market. The company started operations in Brazil in May 1995, and they employ 7,000 in that country.

Later this month the Bush administration will put into effect their new overtime laws. This is the fifth time I have posted on this matter. The definition of professionals exempted is expanded to include not only workers with advanced degrees of postgraduate study, but those with special work experience or training, and all employees who “hold a position of responsibility.” Salaried employees who make $65,000 or more would be automatically exempt from overtime pay. Just as the government’s jobless numbers are vastly understated, so is Labor Secretary Chao’s contention that only 644,000 workers nationwide might lose rights to collect overtime for working more than 40 hours a week. It’s wrong for anyone to be deprived of overtime pay. Do you think the nation’s 2.7 million practical nurses, for example, often work more than 40 hours a week? How about fireman and policeman? The Senate and the House voted last year to bar immediate implementation of the new overtime rules, but that language was stripped from a spending bill when the Bush administration objected. I will say it again. Any American worker who votes for Bush’s re-election is undermining his or her own ability to earn overtime pay. When those impacted by the new rules don’t earn time and a half for over 40 hours of weekly work, let’s see how everyone likes it. Bend over pal. You are about to get screwed.

After 75 years of operation, Rockford, Ill.-based Amerock Corp. is closing its factory doors. All of the 450 workers will be cut from the company’s payroll.

Bharat (Barry) Sahgal, director of research at Brean Murray and recently ranked as the number one oil and gas production analyst, stated “demand for oil barrels in Asia is growing at double-digit percentage rates and will exceed that of the developed OECD countries in the near future. Two countries that will emerge in the next twenty five years as major new consumers are India and China whose economies are growing at 7% and 9% respectively.”

2/29/04 A Leap Year Field Trip

Yesterday was a busy day, and today will be the same. We will visit San Jose, Houston, Chicago, and Kansas, Ohio, and Massachusetts. Since leap year only comes around only once every four years, I thought we should make the most of the time.

We’re heading over to visit with Larry Lisenbee, San Jose’s budget director. The city faces a $85 million deficit. Larry tells us that San Jose taxpayers’ share of retirement costs for police officers and firefighters will increase from $27.8 million annually to $75.6 million over the next three years, largely to compensate for poor performance of public retirement investments. Police and fire unions are demanding the city increase the maximum retirement pay from 85% to 90% of salaries upon retirement, an increase that adds $24 million in costs to San Jose next year. Larry stated “it’s really pretty simple, really. I can’t afford the budget now as it is. If there’s any retirement issues, the questions become what else do we throw overboard to balance it?” Layoffs and cuts to city services are already on the table. Larry goes on to tell us that “retirement costs have become, if you want to look at it this way, the third biggest city department behind police and fire. It is an enormous and growing cost to the city of San Jose.” Police officers and fire fighters eligible to retire after 30 years on the job now collect $77,202 to $125,013 in annual pension payments. With the higher rate the unions seek, officers could retire as early as age 50, with 90% of their pay for the rest of their lives.

Down the road our next visit is with Keitaro Matsuda, a senior economist at the Union Bank of California. He tells us that, from January 2003 to January 2004, Santa Clara County lost more than 25,000 jobs. In the prior 12 months the state’s annual revision of the job data indicated the county lost more than 60,000 jobs. Santa Clara County had 837,700 jobs in January 2004, the fewest since May 1995. Despite losing jobs in the past 12 months, the unemployment rate dropped from a revised 9.1% in January 2003 to 7% a year later, largely the result of workers leaving the labor force. In essence, Keitaro stated “the improvement in the unemployment rate really doesn’t mean anything at all positive.”

I thought it would be productive for us to visit with John Chambers, CEO of Cisco. His company has 18,000 employees in the Silicon Valley, and they make their corporate headquarters in San Jose. The stop is not out of our way. Much has been stated concerning the pickup in hi-tech capital spending and its positive impact on corporate earnings. Analysts have attempted to draw a straight line between increased capital spending, higher revenues, and job creation. Let’s get John’s take on this subject. He stated “I think the jobs will come in waves, based upon the companies returning to profitability and business executives’ comfort level. I think all of us will probably see the majority of job growth over the next decade in smaller to midsize companies in this country. Large companies as well, they’re going to wait until they see their own business do better. And let’s be very, very open. It’s been largely in the last quarter. As business improves I personally think they’ll spend first on productivity and capital and then on hiring. So if you look at it, it’s progressing in the logical sequence. Business is improving, they’re starting to spend on capital although not at the pace we’d like to see, and then after that, hiring should occur. Your danger is this is slower than traditionally has occurred in other economic recoveries, for a combination of reasons.” John tells us Cisco will hire when productivity goals are met. In the downturn, revenue per Cisco employee was $480,000. The goal is for productivity to reach $700,000 per employee. John stated “once we get to 700,000, then we would look to hire.” Cisco is not at that point.

Our next stop is with Houston’s Mayor Bill White. He assumed a major problem. The city pension fund faces a $995 million shortfall because projected payments to employees are $995 million higher than projected assets. The number is a moving target depending on changes in the stock market, employee pay, and other factors. Employees who work 25 years and four months will receive 90% of their annual salary in retirement, plus Social Security payments that will put them well over 100% of their salary. After they die, their spouses will continue to receive the full pension until their deaths. Mayor White stated the city could not afford to keep the current pension system and would be forced to make changes. New employees might get a “defined contribution” such as a 401(K) plan rather than a “defined benefit” like a standard pension, White stated.

Before going to Ohio, we’re stopping in Wichita to meet with John Stewart, CEO of Creekstone Farms, a Kansas meatpacker. He tells us that his company exports 25% of its beef products. His Asian customers have provided John with assurances that they will accept Creekstone’s products if the company tests every carcass. Creekstone has told the USDA it will voluntarily perform 100% testing, and asked to establish a laboratory for BSE testing at its plant. The company has been losing about $80,000 a day since the export ban was placed into effect. John stated Creekstone Farms will soon be forced to layoff between 10 and 15% of its workforce at its Arkansas City slaughter plant, where it employs 750 works. Creekstone Farms is the first U.S. meatpacker to agree to 100% voluntary testing of slaughtered animals. The company kills about 1,000 cattle daily and markets the beef under its Creekstone Farms Premium Black Angus beef brand. Stewart stated “ we understand that our competitors are not particularly happy about this. “The testing will add about $20 to the cost of processing each animal, a cost that will be passed on to customers.

On Tuesday, across the 10 states that hold primaries, 900,000 jobs have been cut since 2001. In three of those states, Ohio, New York, and California, the most jobs have been lost. In Ohio, thousands of manufacturing jobs evaporated. The loss of jobs is the central issue in the Ohio primaries and in the November election. No Republican has ever won a presidential election without carrying Ohio. In the last election Bush won by three percentage points over Al Gore. In listening to the folks on Main Street, we hear a refrain. The people are very cautious. Many have friends who have been unemployed for two years, and they still can’t find a job. They see work going overseas. One former manufacturing manager who lost the job in a corporate restructuring stated “if you look at the core of what he (Bush) has done, he’s totally focused on the companies and not the people.”

Our final stop is in Massachusetts. This state lost 53,000 jobs last year, 10,000 more than previously estimated. The state ended the year with an average jobless rate of 5.8%, up from 5.3% in 2002 and the highest since 1994. Originally it was reported that the state had added a net 1,200 jobs in the first six months of 2003. On Friday, the state Division of Unemployment Assistance reported Massachusetts lost more than 33,000 jobs. In January 2004 the state lost 5,500 jobs, the ninth consecutive month that state employers have cut payrolls. At the same time, the state jobless rate declined to 5.6%. Isn’t that a farce? People leave the labor force and the unemployment rate drops. Alan Clayton-Matthews, an economist and professor of public policy at the University of Massachusetts at Boston, remarked “this recovery has been so disappointing and exceptionally bad in terms of jobs, I’m not willing to say that this represents a job turnaround.” One buyer and purchasing agent who was laid off by a local technology company in November stated “companies are still very cautious about hiring, and anyone who is hiring, is hiring temps. I’ve been through a lot of cycles of ups and downs, but this has been a worse down.”

Over this weekend we have crisscrossed our country. In the coming weeks we shall visit other states and other cities. As they say, there are a million stories in the naked city. We will try to cover some of them. I hope you are getting a clearer picture of life on Main Street. I hope a greater understanding will lead to more successful investing and to enhanced appreciation of some of the problems facing our nation. If the politicians running for elected office avoid “misspeaking” and focus on jobs as the number one priority of the voters, they may stand an improved chance of getting elected. If a candidate paints a picture that does not exist, the voters will recognize that this individual is full of shit.

2/28/04 Our Saturday Field Trip

You will notice that we have an addition to today’s group. I invited Allan Greenspan to join us. After listening to his address yesterday at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, I thought a trip to Main Street would do him some good. His optimism was reflected in this statement. “I would say that we could get a pop in employment almost any time…job creation occurs when you no longer can dip into the system of potential productivity advances to substitute for labor…my own judgment is that at some point that is almost certainly going to happen, indeed it is conceivable it may be happening now.” We will be visiting Connecticut, Mississippi, Michigan, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Hawaii. When our field trip is completed, I am confident that Alan will have a different take on the employment landscape.

Watch your step getting off the plane. There’s Steve Finger. He runs Connecticut-based Sikorsky Aircraft. He does not look very happy. Steve tells us he wrote a letter to workers. The Pentagon’s cancellation of the Comanche helicopter program will affect more than 400 jobs at their Bridgeport plant and about 200 at their Stratford, Conn. facility. In addition, another 100 or so workers will lose their jobs in Florida and Alabama. The Army announced that it was dropping the $39 billion program after spending nearly $7 billion and 21 years in development. The money will be spent instead on additional Black Hawk helicopters. This loss is certainly a big blow to Sikorsky, its employees, and particularly, Bridgeport and Stratford.

We’re on our way to Jackson and Carthage, Mississippi. Tyson Foods operates chicken processing plants in those locations. The Jackson plant was built in 1961, and the Carthage facility in 1995. There’s Bill Lovette, the Tyson Group Vice President of Food Service. He tells us that the Jackson plant processes 850,000 birds weekly and Carthage does 1.45 million weekly. The two plants combined employ 2,700 workers. They plan on combining production at Carthage and reducing employment to 1,800. Bill observed “we are also faced with a compelling need to install newer, more automated processing equipment, and it simply makes more business sense to invest that capital in the more modern facility. In the long run, this decision will help us improve the return on invested capital for the chicken segment of our business.” It will be difficult for those 900 workers to find other jobs. This is a tough hiring environment.

We are on our way for a short visit with Jennifer Granholm, Michigan’s Governor. When she heard Alan would be on our field trip, she made herself available. She told us that, on April 27, the governors of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will join her on a visit to Washington, DC in an effort to seek federal help in reversing the loss of manufacturing jobs. Governor Granholm informs us that manufacturing accounted for 23% of Michigan’s gross state product in 2001. Since January 2001, the state’s manufacturing employment has fallen by 15% or 127,000 jobs. This decline has ravaged Michigan’s economy. She does not mention a pop in employment.

I see Jim Doyle, Wisconsin’s Governor. I appreciate his making himself available this Saturday. We no sooner get off the plane and he mentions that this week has been a bad one for Wisconsin workers. It seems that Dean Foods is closing its Madison plant and cutting 89 workers. Believe it or not, Bayside Senior Housing in Bayside is closing and 64 employees will lose their jobs. Trek Bicycle in Waterloo is dropping 80 workers from its payroll. Briggs and Stratton will cut 44 workers from it facility in Milwaukee. To make matters even worse, Perry-Judd’s in Waterloo will close its plant and 650 workers will be affected. It was a bad week for Wisconsin’s Main Street and its workers.

The pilot informs us that sunny skies are expected in Oregon. Amy Vander Vliet, a regional economist for the Oregon Employment Department, is meeting us at the Portland airport. Amy is a straight shooter, and greets us with “I think we’re still seeing a trend of tentative growth. It’s going to be extremely difficult to find a job.” She informs us that January was not a good month for Oregon. The state lost 3,600 jobs and employment dropped to 1,564,800 and the jobless rate climbed to 7.7%. Since June 2003, only 10,000 jobs have been created. Amy informed us that Paul Allen’s (Microsoft co-founder) Oregon Arena Corp., which operates the Rose Garden Arena, home of the Portland Trail Blazers, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Friday. The company had been scheduled to make a $3.2 million interest payment on Monday. Amy provided an example of the tough hiring environment in Oregon. She mentioned that Leticia Estrada has been looking for a job in the accounting field for six months, and that her search has produced nothing but discouragement. There are meager postings at the Oregon employment office in Portland.

We have a long flight to O’ahu and there is some time to discuss Alan’s remarks made yesterday on the Chinese yuan. He stated “the one thing I’m reasonably sure of, however, is that if the value of the Chinese currency does rise, which I think is a fairly reasonable expectation… it is not going to shut down exports from China to the United States, which will then be replaced by U.S. production.” Guo Shuqing, head of China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange, stated “ the inflation rate is rising and the asset bubble is starting to get worrying.” In January his country’s foreign currency reserves increased by $13 billion to $416 billion. Guo observed “the ways to reduce the balance of payments surplus include increasing imports, expanding capital outflows, reducing capital inflows and enhancing the elasticity of the exchange rate.” In sum, the effort will be to enhance the demand for the U.S. dollar and reduce demand for the yuan. That doesn’t mean the peg will be changed today. The wider band will be effectuated some months from now.

Here we are. Marcus Gillespie, the owner and president of Sunrise Construction, is over there. He builds home frames for Shuler Homes Hawaii and others. Marcus informs us that he has 160 union carpenters but is laying off another 20 workers today. He stated “we’ve already laid off 10, and we’re expecting to probably let go another 30 to 40 guys next Friday.” Ron Taketa, financial secretary and business representative for the Hawaii Carpenters Union, the largest of the Islands’ trade unions, is with Marcus. Ron and Marcus tell us about the 22-day-old concrete strike that began on Feb. 6. The issues focus on sick leave and employee contributions to healthcare plans. By the end of next week there won’t be any concrete. Bruce Coppa, president of Pacific Resource Partnership, joins us. He stated “this strike is having a lot of repercussions across the community. At the end of this week, you’re going to start to see some real telltale signs. Morale is an issue, and people’s mortgages and car payments are in jeopardy.” As the strike drags on, the number of layoffs will only increase.

It’s been a busy day. I know that today’s field trip is of no interest to investors on Wall Street. It’s business as usual there. The Investment Company Institute reported yesterday that stock mutual funds received $43.7 billion in new cash last month, and this pushed total fund industry assets to a record $7.5 trillion. The previous record was $7.47 trillion in August 2000. In addition, hybrid funds that own stocks and bonds took in $5.5 billion in January. It must be wonderful to shut out the noise from the millions of unemployed, under employed, and discouraged workers on Main Street. For individuals like Alan Greenspan it has been out of sight and out of mind. Maybe today’s field trip expanded Alan’s vision.

Peter Thiel: “Everyone is asking when the Fed will have to start raising rates. But the real question is: When does the Fed throw in the towel and cut rates all the way to zero? They have one more point to go.”

2/27/04 Employee Healthcare Benefits

United Food and Commercial Workers International: “If the supermarket giants—profitable, growing Fortune 50 mega-corporations—can launch an attack on health care benefits, then every employer is sure to follow….in one year, over 2 million lost health insurance. That’s over 6,000 workers a day…no worker should ever again be forced to choose between a paycheck and health care benefits. No worker should ever be forced into the streets for five months to protect health care for their families.” The 70,000 UFCW members will vote on the proposed agreement with Ralph’s, Vons, Albertson’s, Kroger, and Safeway tomorrow and Sunday. The strike is estimated to have cost the companies $1 billion in lost sales. About 900 stores were affected. The major beneficiaries have been Costco, Whole Foods, and Wal-Mart. Before anyone gets too excited about the ratification of this agreement, another problem is looming in the coming months, and it’s much bigger. There are upcoming negotiations from Sacramento to Washington, DC with respect to United Food and Commercial Worker union contracts affecting 250,000 employees. These contracts expire in coming months. Similar issues are at stake—proposed deep cuts to healthcare benefits and a proposed two-tier wage system that would pay new hires less. Ron Lind, spokesman for the coalition of eight unions, stated “we are willing to engage in health care cost containment. But it is one thing to make changes with a scalpel. It’s another to use a chainsaw.” The fireworks have not ended.

The Conference Board’s Help-wanted Advertising Index rose one percentage point in January to 38; however, the Index stood at 41 one year ago. The job market is tight. Yesterday, the new $200 million Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood, Florida began a three-day job fair. The Seminoles are hoping to find 1,800 employees in time for a late-April opening. Some applicants waited in line for five hours. The lines snaked around the parking lot. About 2,500 people showed up early in the morning for these jobs. One applicant stated “I would work right now just for the benefits. Health insurance is out of control.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics was created 120 years ago. Its first commissioner, Carroll Wright, stated “the incumbent has soon realized the sacredness of his office and he has learned to tell a statistical lie is the most harmful thing a man can do.” We sure could use Wright’s appreciation for right and wrong today. We have an Administration grounded in statistical “revisions.” I said that so nicely. It’s still early.

Yesterday Morningstar Foods announced that it will cease operations at its plant in Madison, Wisconsin. The closure will affect approximately 100 employees.

According to a new study by Bain & Co. and released yesterday, nearly 40% of companies in California are planning to move jobs out of state. All of the senior executives interviewed see the business climate in California unfavorably. These companies employ nearly 500,000 workers in California. Dick Kovacevich, chairman and CEO of Wells Fargo, stated “business as usual is not working in California. The state must…improve the competitiveness and keep high-value jobs in the state. If nothing changes, things are likely to get worse.” I guess we can expect a lot of homes to go up for sale. The tight housing market should change dramatically as businesses move jobs out of California.

GE and Honda formed an alliance to enter the microjet market. Building jet engines for small, low-cost jet aircraft makes a good deal of sense. With lower operating costs and more flexibility in landing at smaller airports, there should be a growing demand for such aircraft.

The Sept. 11 Commission is scheduled to finish work on May 27, but its members are seeking at least a two-month extension. They have cited repeated delays because of disputes with the Bush administration over access to witnesses and documents. House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill, remains opposed to providing the extension and does not intend to bring any legislation to the floor. Maybe House members should consider growing a set of cojones and standing up to the Speaker. Hastert will end up looking like another Aristede because a compromise shall be reached and a new July 26 deadline set.

In the week ended Feb. 21, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time rose 6,000 to 350,000. The four-week average rose 2,750 to 354,750, the fourth consecutive increase and the highest level since December of last year. Bob Mellman, J.P. Morgan economist, stated “I think hiring is slow, but all signs are that hiring is coming.” Howard Stern could probably have an appropriate comment on “coming.” Maybe Mellman should have stood on that five-hour line in Florida hoping to get a job at the new casino. The applicants came, the line moved slowly, and the pace of hiring didn’t set the world on fire. As an alternative, Mellman could stand on the picket lines the next time the UFCW workers go on strike. Better yet, Mellman can join the BLS and revise the employment numbers. One better, J.P. Morgan could consider replacing him with someone who reports on the facts. As a reminder, this is a no bullshit zone.

Lastly, we can look forward to today’s revisions on the fourth quarter GDP growth. It will be lowered. The trade gap was worse than expected, construction was worse than expected, inventories were worse than expected, etc. etc. But, economists will be excited about the prospects for growth in 2004. It won’t be slow. It will come quickly. Where is Carroll Wright?

2/26/04 Mass Layoffs, Rollbacks, Growth Warnings

Starbucks Chairman Howard Schultz: “The current high level of revenue performance is not sustainable.”

Microsoft CFO John Connors: “We won’t have the growth we’ve had in the past years in revenue and profit, but we should be able to deliver a decent year in terms of growth.”

Wal-Mart’s new strategy: “Rollbacks- to save you even more.” Before you enter a Wal-Mart store, you will notice that sign all over the windows. When you enter the store and see the aisles, you will see signs for rollbacks all over the store. An item that sold for $12 might now be $7. Wal-Mart is on a roll. They have their corporate heel on the windpipe of their competitors. We’re entering a new round of competition. Consumers will pay lower prices than ever before at Wal-Mart. Suppliers will receive lower prices for their products; however, as Wal-Mart grows, their volume will grow as a supplier and their profit margins will improve as their factory throughput increases and their efficiency is enhanced. Many of the less efficient will fall by the wayside. That will be true of suppliers and competitors. The rollback strategy will help in placing a lid on the CPI. Soon, Wal-Mart will account for 10% of retail sales in the U.S. (excluding auto parts and supplies).

In January, U.S. sales of previously owned houses fell 5.2% to an annual pace of approximately 6 million homes. However, in California, the median price of an existing home increased 20.7% and sales increased 5.3% compared to the same period a year ago. In January, in California there was only a two months supply of houses for sale.

According to a study by the Keystone Group of Los Angeles, over 261,000 manufacturing jobs and $98 billion in gross sales of California-manufactured products disappeared in the three-year period between 1999 and 2002. Manufacturing jobs in California pay almost 50% more than the average of all jobs in the state. The study indicated that manufacturing jobs have a pronounced “multiplier effect” in that they create jobs in other sectors of the economy, at a rate at least twice that of the trickle-down from the retail industry. I mention this study in light of the January mass layoff numbers released yesterday by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. In January 2004 there were 2,428 mass layoffs by U.S. employers (each action must involve the layoff of at least 50 people from a single establishment). The number of workers involved totaled 239,454 compared with the year ago period of 2,315 mass layoffs affecting 225,430 people. This is but one more indication that hiring improvement, when it does take place, has been limited in scope.

Tomorrow there will be a mass layoff at Maytag’s washer and dryer manufacturing plant in Newton, Iowa. A total of 170 production workers will be affected. Management stated that the layoffs are coincidental to the Samsung agreement announced Tuesday. Maytag and Samsung reached an agreement to build a new line of high-efficiency, front-load laundry products in South Korea under the Maytag and Amana brand names. Maytag maintains tomorrow’s layoffs are not a result of the agreement with Samsung. The company will close its refrigerator factory in Galesburg, Illinois later this year and move some of that production to Mexico. Already about 400 Maytag employees have lost their jobs in cuts over the past year. Maytag’s contract with the UAW expires in June and with the International Association of Machinists Local 1526 in September.

Some time today there should be an agreement reached between the unions covering the 70,000 supermarket workers and their Southern California employers. The strike has been going on for about 5 months.

Richwood Meat Co. of Merced, California is recalling 90,000 pounds of beef distributed to military bases in Asia and retail stores in western states because of fears the meat could be contaminated with a deadly bacteria. A Japanese laboratory found E.coli bacteria on some of the meat. When a foreign country finds your product contaminated, it’s a lousy reflection on the safety inspections in our country. However, this is nothing new. Business is usual under our USDA.

Alan Greenspan: “Progress in creating jobs has been limited.”

Alan Greenspan: “The degree of uncertainty about whether future resources will be adequate to meet our current statutory obligations o the coming generations of retirees is daunting.”

According to Reis Inc. of New York, the apartment vacancy rate of 6.9% is the highest in 15 years.

2/25/04 Consumer Confidence And Jobs

Edward Gramlich: U.S. Federal Reserve Governor talking about the February’s drop in U.S. consumer confidence: “This is a modest drop. There’s always some volatility. It’s a fluctuation and confidence has come back from last year.”

Gramlich is correct in stating that confidence has come back from last year. Last February 25 was less than a month before we invaded Iraq. At that time consumer confidence had plummeted to 64, a drop of almost 15 points from the prior month. It was the lowest reading since October 1993. A year later the index has risen to 87. Although there was a drop of 9 points from the previous month, over the past year considerable improvement in the overall consumer confidence index has taken place.
Can a Fed Governor be half correct? The answer is yes in the case of Gramlich. Both he and Wall Street missed the most important point. In order to have a proper assessment of consumer confidence, today it is necessary to step back in time to one year ago. The answer can be found in confidence concerning jobs. This is very important. Despite the improvement in the overall index from 64 to 87 over the past 12 months, the percentage who saw jobs as hard to get had actually increased from roughly 31 percent to 32 percent, a ten year high. The proportion who saw jobs as plentiful remained the same at just over 11 percent. There was a pickup in those who thought more jobs would become available. It rose from the meager base of about 13 percent to 18 percent. Interestingly, 18 percent also expect fewer jobs to become available today. Only 16 percent of those surveyed anticipate an increase in their incomes. In other words, Gramlich missed the crux of yesterday’s report. That should come as no surprise. He is a government worker.

Lynn Franco, Director of the Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center: “Consumers remain disheartened with current economic conditions, and at the core of their disenchantment is the labor market. While the current expansion has generated jobs over the past several months, the pace of creation remains too tepid to generate a sustainable turnaround in consumers’ confidence. And with consumers anticipating economic conditions to remain about the same in the months ahead, their short-term outlook turned less optimistic.”

With the report on mass layoffs due today, there is little reason to expect consumers will feel more buoyant in their level of confidence. It is important to be keenly aware of the crosscurrents in the consumer landscape. Wal-Mart and Target may be more optimistic and refund checks and lower tax payments will provide boosts to the pockets of consumers. At the same time, appliance makers are finding it more difficult, for example, to sell their products. It’s a mixed bag.

In 2002, the West Nile virus infected 4,156 people in the U.S. and 284 subsequently died. In 2003, 9,000 contracted the virus and 230 died. Only Alaska, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington State reported no human cases last year. More than 1,000 blood donors have tested positive for the virus in the United States.

Yesterday the EU decided to ban imports of chicks and eggs from the U.S. for one month after the discovery of bird flu in Texas. Hundreds of U.S. exporters will face $200 million in EU tariffs unless the U.S ends an export-tax credit by Monday.

This morning the Tata group, comprising 91 companies and India’s second-biggest business conglomerate, announced that Jeffrey Sage, a global automotive solutions executive with IBM in Detroit, will join Tata Motors, India’s biggest vehicle maker.

On Sunday, the British newspaper, The Sunday Express, reported that Osama bin Laden had been found and was surrounded by U.S. special forces. The Washington Times reported on Monday that a top-secret U.S. commando team, Task Force 121, the one that had helped capture Hussein, was heading for Afghanistan. Yesterday CNN reported that Pakistan reportedly moved between 8,000 and 10,000 soldiers into the area, and that Pakistan forces had arrested 20 people so far in this operation. All we do know is that the hunt for bin Laden continues. The rest is speculation.