10/2/04 It’s Hard Work
Lane Kirkland: "If hard work were such a wonderful thing, surely the rich would have kept it all to themselves."
Yesterday was the first day of the quarter and there must have been tremendous incentives to stimulate the buying on Wall Street. I know GM was not giving away new cars for free. I know it wasn’t because oil closed for the first time above $50 a barrel, or the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds had risen 20 basis points in a few days, or because Ichiro broke George Sisler’s record that has stood for 84 years, or that Mt. St. Helens erupted, or that commodities had a record week, or that gold closed above $420, or that natural gas for delivery next month is approaching $7 a thousand cubic feet, or that heating oil last year was 74 cents a gallon a year ago and is now almost $1.40, or that the inflation index is up 2.1% from a year earlier, or that the dollar fell to its lowest level against the euro since mid-July. It wasn’t because a G7 official opined there is "a recognition that oil reserves were scarcer than was thought a few years ago." It wasn’t because a U.S. government official stated almost 29% of daily output in the Gulf of Mexico remained shut down after Ivan, or that U.S. heating-oil inventories are 10% below normal after last month’s storms, or that, in the next three months, record daily demand is anticipated for heating, transportation, and factory fuels, or that the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for September was much weaker at 94.2 than the consensus level of 96. It wasn’t because the latest ISM Prices Index indicated a significant upward pressure on prices, or that ISM’s New Orders Index declined 3.1 percentage points from 61.2 in August to 58.1 in September, or that ISM’s Supplier Deliveries Index registered 59.6 or 3.6 percentage points lower than August’s 63.2 percent, or that ISM’s Customers’ Index registered a monthly decline of 4 percentage points to 41.5, the 40th consecutive month the index has been below 50 percent, or that ISM’s New Export Orders Index declined 2.4 percentage points to 51.8 percent. Overall, there is a recent slowing in new orders and customers are maintaining smaller inventory levels. The customers are worrying more about demand than inflation. If it were the reverse, they would be stocking up on goods prior to price increases.
Billy Crystal: "Well the way things are going, aside from wheat and auto parts, America’s biggest export is now Oscar."
GM’s incentives rose 6.1% from August to September to $5,168 and increased 5.6% at Ford to $5,179 and decreased by $1 per vehicle to $4,861 at Chrysler. Toyota’s incentives are $3,506. The star performers were trucks due to large cash rebates. For the first nine months of 2004, even with growing rebates, GM’s share of the market still was a tenth of a percentage point less that it had in 2003. During the same period, Ford’s market share declined to 19.7% from 20.9%. It’s hard work.
Flip Wilson: "If you think nobody cares if you’re alive, try missing a couple of car payments."
Davy Crockett: "Remember that a government big enough to give you everything you want is also big enough to take away everything you have."
Burner Systems International is closing its Mansfield, Ohio plant and cutting 300 jobs. Wallace Computer Services is closing its San Luis Obispo labeling and printing plant and laying off 100 people. WestPointStevens will close its Long View, NC bedding plant and lay off 300 workers. Lawson Software will layoff 100 workers.
Recently, Boeing’s share price hit a new yearly high. Meanwhile, their third quarter plane deliveries only amounted to 67 (of which 49 are the 737) and that makes 218 for the first nine months of the year. They are right on schedule to have another lackluster year for making commercial jets. It’s hard work.
So why did the Dow rise 112 points, the Nasdaq 45, and the S&P 17 points yesterday? I don’t know. It’s hard work.
Governor Chou: "China’s forex regime could change on certain conditions but we need to do more preparation. It is impossible to do it now." It’s hard work.
Charlie McCarthy: "Hard work never killed anybody, but why take the chance?"
Author Kevin Phillips on Karl Rove: "He is the first strategist to elect a schmuck as president of the United States- to orchestrate the triumph of a relatively mediocre thinker who lost the popular vote and now has the chance to become a historical figure thanks to Osama bin Laden."
Friday, October 01, 2004
10/1/04 Will It Be A Red October?
Yesterday, a volcano warning was issued for Mt. St. Helens. Experts on the scene stated there is a 70% chance of at least a small eruption. At tradesports.com 63% have their money on Bush for president. I wonder what the chances are of that bet erupting?
According to the Pentagon, 42 U.S. service members were killed in Iraq in June, 54 in July, 66 in August, and at least 76 in September. Since the invasion, at least 1,052 have been killed and approximately 7,500 wounded. Ted Carpenter of the Cato Institute opined "I think we’re losing slowly but steadily. I think we’re sinking deeper into the quick sand."
Dick Cheney: "We will, in fact, be greeted as liberators."
Craig Kilborn: "This was nice, President Bush wished the Iraqis God’s grace on their road to democracy. And then Vice President Cheney told them to go F-themselves."
Nortel to cut 3,250 jobs. Pepsico to close 4 Frito Lay plants- Council Bluffs, IA, Allen Park, MI, Beaverton, OR, and Visalia, CA- and eliminate 780 positions. Two Chelsea Industries located in Kentucky will close by the end of October and 109 employees will lose their jobs. Capital One will close an Irving, TX call center and cut 220 workers. The Chicago Transit Authority’s proposed doomsday budget would cut 1,000 union workers.
Gen. Douglas MacArthur: "There is no security on this earth; there is only opportunity."
Merck traded at an 8-year low. The company’s Vioxx drug was approved for sale in 1999 and currently there are 2.5 million users. With sales exceeding $2 billion a year, it accounts for 20% of Merck’s profits. Yesterday the company pulled the drug off the market. It was a heavy blow to the company’s reputation, to the bottom line, and to its stockholders. Merck has had a terrific history. Hopefully, its future will be equally bright. Frequently, opportunity exists in unsettled times.
In the latest reading, consumer spending was flat and the pace of savings picked up. As the population ages, that trend, I believe, will be the norm.
The Labor Department stated that last week’s rise in the unemployment numbers was due to the hurricanes in Florida. I guess the recent rise in plant closings had nothing to do with it.
Last night Bush stated he is a decisive leader and that he made the tough decision to invade Iraq "because the enemy attacked us." Kerry reminded Bush that bin Laden not Iraq attacked us. Laura Bush must have been relieved to hear her husband state "I knew that."
Yesterday, a volcano warning was issued for Mt. St. Helens. Experts on the scene stated there is a 70% chance of at least a small eruption. At tradesports.com 63% have their money on Bush for president. I wonder what the chances are of that bet erupting?
According to the Pentagon, 42 U.S. service members were killed in Iraq in June, 54 in July, 66 in August, and at least 76 in September. Since the invasion, at least 1,052 have been killed and approximately 7,500 wounded. Ted Carpenter of the Cato Institute opined "I think we’re losing slowly but steadily. I think we’re sinking deeper into the quick sand."
Dick Cheney: "We will, in fact, be greeted as liberators."
Craig Kilborn: "This was nice, President Bush wished the Iraqis God’s grace on their road to democracy. And then Vice President Cheney told them to go F-themselves."
Nortel to cut 3,250 jobs. Pepsico to close 4 Frito Lay plants- Council Bluffs, IA, Allen Park, MI, Beaverton, OR, and Visalia, CA- and eliminate 780 positions. Two Chelsea Industries located in Kentucky will close by the end of October and 109 employees will lose their jobs. Capital One will close an Irving, TX call center and cut 220 workers. The Chicago Transit Authority’s proposed doomsday budget would cut 1,000 union workers.
Gen. Douglas MacArthur: "There is no security on this earth; there is only opportunity."
Merck traded at an 8-year low. The company’s Vioxx drug was approved for sale in 1999 and currently there are 2.5 million users. With sales exceeding $2 billion a year, it accounts for 20% of Merck’s profits. Yesterday the company pulled the drug off the market. It was a heavy blow to the company’s reputation, to the bottom line, and to its stockholders. Merck has had a terrific history. Hopefully, its future will be equally bright. Frequently, opportunity exists in unsettled times.
In the latest reading, consumer spending was flat and the pace of savings picked up. As the population ages, that trend, I believe, will be the norm.
The Labor Department stated that last week’s rise in the unemployment numbers was due to the hurricanes in Florida. I guess the recent rise in plant closings had nothing to do with it.
Last night Bush stated he is a decisive leader and that he made the tough decision to invade Iraq "because the enemy attacked us." Kerry reminded Bush that bin Laden not Iraq attacked us. Laura Bush must have been relieved to hear her husband state "I knew that."
Wednesday, September 29, 2004
9/30/04 Mom Would Have Been 88 Today
This didn't take any guts. Pimco's Gross suggested selling positions in the 10-year Treasury bonds. Holders have big profits and you can't get hurt taking a profit. After all, the U.S. Treasury auctioned off $24 billion in 2-year notes at a yield of 2.60% or about a 1.44 differential with the 10-year paper. Maybe one should ask why there is a bubble in the 10-year. We have record deficits and require large daily funding from foreign sources. Our dollar is weak and the Administration has promoted a weak dollar to spur exports. The purchasing power of our citizens has suffered. Bubbles can last for a long time. Look at home prices. Consider the bubble in dot com stocks. Look at a chart on the Nasdaq. Our 10-year Treasury bonds are a resting place for petrodollars and for dollars coming back from China and Japan for their exports into the U.S. It's not to be nice. It's to keep the game going. The game is the recycling of dollars. We end up with less and less and foreigners lend us the dollars they received through their exports into the U.S. Soon we will be living in a country where the debt holders control us. That's what almost 4 years of Bush has brought us. That is a fear factor. That's real, and it's a code red. You can go to the bank on that- but make it one in Switzerland.
Mark Twain: "In the long run there is more terror in threats than in execution, for when you get use to terror, your emotions get dulled." I hope the voters understand this.
Plato: "Only the dead have seen the end of the war."
Bush & Company have a clear agenda. It's simple. The Iraq war is part of the war on terror. Never mind the WMD that didn't exist and the lies that were told to get the official backing to the Iraq war. That's all over now- except for the dead and the wounded and the families who are left with the tragedies. Their war continues and continues and continues. Mourning does not end.
Second quarter GDP was revised upward to 3.3%. It takes 89 days to revise the prior quarter. It must be difficult assembling information on exports, imports, and inventories. Maybe we should hire some more government workers. Just a bad joke.
Paul Wilkinson: "Fighting terrorism is like being a goalkeeper. You can make a hundred brilliant saves but the only shot that people remember is the one that gets past you."
Belo Corp. to cut 250 jobs. Many of the positions eliminated will be at the Dallas Morning News.
The joke of the week: Chief executive officers of GM, Ford, and Chrysler asked Treasury Secretary John Snow to urge Japan not to resume yen sales that they say unfairly make Japanese cars less expensive in the U.S. Maybe the consumer prefers the Japanese cars, such as, those made by Toyota.
The dome at Mt. St. Helens was raised to the second highest danger alert level. The local officials didn't even ask Homeland Security for permission. My faith in the human race has taken a leap forward.
Jay Leno: "The reason there are two senators for each state is so that one can be the designated driver.
This didn't take any guts. Pimco's Gross suggested selling positions in the 10-year Treasury bonds. Holders have big profits and you can't get hurt taking a profit. After all, the U.S. Treasury auctioned off $24 billion in 2-year notes at a yield of 2.60% or about a 1.44 differential with the 10-year paper. Maybe one should ask why there is a bubble in the 10-year. We have record deficits and require large daily funding from foreign sources. Our dollar is weak and the Administration has promoted a weak dollar to spur exports. The purchasing power of our citizens has suffered. Bubbles can last for a long time. Look at home prices. Consider the bubble in dot com stocks. Look at a chart on the Nasdaq. Our 10-year Treasury bonds are a resting place for petrodollars and for dollars coming back from China and Japan for their exports into the U.S. It's not to be nice. It's to keep the game going. The game is the recycling of dollars. We end up with less and less and foreigners lend us the dollars they received through their exports into the U.S. Soon we will be living in a country where the debt holders control us. That's what almost 4 years of Bush has brought us. That is a fear factor. That's real, and it's a code red. You can go to the bank on that- but make it one in Switzerland.
Mark Twain: "In the long run there is more terror in threats than in execution, for when you get use to terror, your emotions get dulled." I hope the voters understand this.
Plato: "Only the dead have seen the end of the war."
Bush & Company have a clear agenda. It's simple. The Iraq war is part of the war on terror. Never mind the WMD that didn't exist and the lies that were told to get the official backing to the Iraq war. That's all over now- except for the dead and the wounded and the families who are left with the tragedies. Their war continues and continues and continues. Mourning does not end.
Second quarter GDP was revised upward to 3.3%. It takes 89 days to revise the prior quarter. It must be difficult assembling information on exports, imports, and inventories. Maybe we should hire some more government workers. Just a bad joke.
Paul Wilkinson: "Fighting terrorism is like being a goalkeeper. You can make a hundred brilliant saves but the only shot that people remember is the one that gets past you."
Belo Corp. to cut 250 jobs. Many of the positions eliminated will be at the Dallas Morning News.
The joke of the week: Chief executive officers of GM, Ford, and Chrysler asked Treasury Secretary John Snow to urge Japan not to resume yen sales that they say unfairly make Japanese cars less expensive in the U.S. Maybe the consumer prefers the Japanese cars, such as, those made by Toyota.
The dome at Mt. St. Helens was raised to the second highest danger alert level. The local officials didn't even ask Homeland Security for permission. My faith in the human race has taken a leap forward.
Jay Leno: "The reason there are two senators for each state is so that one can be the designated driver.
9/29/04 Fear Factor
Lloyd Douglas: "If a man harbors any sort of fear, it makes him landlord to a ghost."
Bush is ahead in almost every poll. He is running on the fear factor. His is the administration of raising the homeland security alert. Maybe the fear represents more than that like fear of losing a job; fear of not getting a job; fear of losing benefits; fear of not afffording health insurance; fear of losing one's pension; fear of not having sufficient federal funds for medicare; fear that foreign countries won't give us the necessary $2 billion per day to make up the daily budget gap; fear of losing your constitutional liberties; fear that the killing and the wounded lists in Iraq will continue to mount for years to come; and fear that these two presidential candidates are the best America has to offer. The choice sucks.
Helen Keller: "Avoiding danger is no safer in the long run than outright exposure. The fearful are caught as often as the bold."
September U.S. consumer confidence fell to 96.8 from the prior month's 98.7. Attitudes about the current economic situation fell to 95.5 from 100.7 The number of consumers who believed jobs are plentiful declined in September to 16.8% from 18.4% while those who found jobs hard to get increased to 28.3% from 26%.
Teddy Roosevelt: "the only limit to our realization of tomorrow will be our doubts about reality."
Pliant Corp. is closing its Burrillville, R.I. plastics plant and eliminating 60 jobs. VF Corp. is closing two sewing plants in El Paso and laying off 1,035 workers. La Crosse Footwear is closing its Claremont, NH plant and laying off 70 employees. J&J is closing its Royston, GA plant and laying off 300 workers. Russ Berrie is cutting 75 jobs. Computer Associates is cutting 800 jobs. No wonder consumer confidence is waning. Delta Airlines is cutting executive and employee pay by 10%.
Lenny Bruce: " If Jesus had been killed 20 years ago, Catholic school children would be wearing little electric chairs around their necks instead of crosses."
Lloyd Douglas: "If a man harbors any sort of fear, it makes him landlord to a ghost."
Bush is ahead in almost every poll. He is running on the fear factor. His is the administration of raising the homeland security alert. Maybe the fear represents more than that like fear of losing a job; fear of not getting a job; fear of losing benefits; fear of not afffording health insurance; fear of losing one's pension; fear of not having sufficient federal funds for medicare; fear that foreign countries won't give us the necessary $2 billion per day to make up the daily budget gap; fear of losing your constitutional liberties; fear that the killing and the wounded lists in Iraq will continue to mount for years to come; and fear that these two presidential candidates are the best America has to offer. The choice sucks.
Helen Keller: "Avoiding danger is no safer in the long run than outright exposure. The fearful are caught as often as the bold."
September U.S. consumer confidence fell to 96.8 from the prior month's 98.7. Attitudes about the current economic situation fell to 95.5 from 100.7 The number of consumers who believed jobs are plentiful declined in September to 16.8% from 18.4% while those who found jobs hard to get increased to 28.3% from 26%.
Teddy Roosevelt: "the only limit to our realization of tomorrow will be our doubts about reality."
Pliant Corp. is closing its Burrillville, R.I. plastics plant and eliminating 60 jobs. VF Corp. is closing two sewing plants in El Paso and laying off 1,035 workers. La Crosse Footwear is closing its Claremont, NH plant and laying off 70 employees. J&J is closing its Royston, GA plant and laying off 300 workers. Russ Berrie is cutting 75 jobs. Computer Associates is cutting 800 jobs. No wonder consumer confidence is waning. Delta Airlines is cutting executive and employee pay by 10%.
Lenny Bruce: " If Jesus had been killed 20 years ago, Catholic school children would be wearing little electric chairs around their necks instead of crosses."
Monday, September 27, 2004
9/28/04 Home Prices Are Falling--Finally! As 10-year Treasury bonds traded below 4% and the Dow inched downward to the 10,000 level, the U.S. August median price for a new home declined from July's $214,400 to $208,900, a drop of almost 11.7% in just one month. Of course, a single month does not make a trend; however,there was more information released. New home sales are down 0.4% year-over-year and the number of new homes for sale increased to 404,000, the highest number in 25 years. This is taking place during a month of declining mortgage rates. What would happen if there had been an increase? The headlines read a good bit differently- that frequently takes place with July new home sales revised downward by 52,000 units to 1.082 million; however, August results jumped9.4% to 1.184 million. Without the change in July, theincrease for last month would have been 50,000 unitsor a rise of 4.4%. I think we should re-visit thissubject in another month and see whether the resultsare similar to August's numbers. The CEO of Volkswagen, Europe's largest carmaker, predicted a flat Western European market in 2005. Harry Truman: "Never kick a fresh turd on a hot day." There have already been over 600 earnings warnings for the third quarter. Companies frequently blame the weather, higher energy prices, and higher unit labor costs. Managements might consider an additional reason- the topline growth is puny in most cases. Should Bush win the election, many money managers are looking for a Bush market bounce. Since Bush arrived at the White House in January 2001, the indices haven't exactly been kind to investors. Maybe the aforementioned money managers have grown accustomed to below-par results. A three-day auto clearance sale begins today. Despite heavy discounting, I still do not expect much of a pick-up for GM or Ford. On Friday, Commerce One said it woud lay off 56 employees. The company is left with $300,000 in cash. The Atlanta Braves won their 13th Division Title in a row. AT&T cut 140 call center jobs in Fairhaven, Mass. Thecompany is closing its customer service center in Charleston, W.Va., eliminating nearly 300 jobs. In addition, they are closing call centers in Hawaii and Puerto Rico. Knight Ridder's Nancy Youssef wrote that, since April, U.S. air strikes in Iraq have killed twice as many Iraqis (including many civilian bystanders) than those at the hands of nationalist guerrillas. Crude closed at a record $49.64 a barrel, and in evening hours traded at $50. Steve Allen: "The hair is real; it's the head that's fake."
U.S. retail gas prices at the pump rose 5 cents last week to $1.96 per gallon on average.
Walter Williams, professor emeritus at the University of Washington's Daniel J. Evans School of Public Affairs: "Bush's dismal policy failures in tax cuts and Iraq are being sold as achievements- and apparently being bought by large numbers of the public."
U.S. retail gas prices at the pump rose 5 cents last week to $1.96 per gallon on average.
Walter Williams, professor emeritus at the University of Washington's Daniel J. Evans School of Public Affairs: "Bush's dismal policy failures in tax cuts and Iraq are being sold as achievements- and apparently being bought by large numbers of the public."
9/27/04 Malfunctioning Traffic Signals
Beware at intersections. Jeanne has left malfunctioning traffic signals in its wake. Over a million residents remain without power.
On Saturday and Sunday there were more than 10 quakes below the dome on Mt. St. Helens ranging from 2.0 to 2.8, the most in a 24-hour period since the eruption in October 1986. Seismologists suggest there could be a small explosion soon.
How will Fannie Mae's accounting troubles impact the housing market and the economy? Will it be simply a small explosion? Maybe we should ask a seismologist rather than the Wall Street experts.
Colin Powell: "We have seen an increase in anti-Americanism in the Muslim world...we are fighting an intense insurgency. Yes, it's getting worse." That sounds a bit different from the message Bush has been delivering to the American people. Why am I not surprised?
Crude is trading at $49.37 a barrel.
If you visit Florida, bring bug repellent. Jeanne has left such wet conditions that mosquitos are loving every minute of it.
For the first time in 27 years, the San Francisco 49ers did not score any points yesterday. For the first time since 1969, the Miami Dolphins began the season with a 0-3 record.
At the Electric Drive Transportation conference last week, experts stated fuel cell cars are 15 years off.
Donald T. Terry, a senior InterAmerican Development Bank official, stated that about $38 billion was sent to Latin American and Caribbean countries in 2003- mostly from the U.S. He expects the total to reach $45 billion in 2004. Interestingly, Latin America and the Caribbean received $29 billion in foreign aid and foreign investment combined in 2003. The IDB said the average wire transfer is $235, and that overall, 10% of Latin American and Caribbean residents receive remittances each year.
Elaine Worzala, professor of real estate at the University of San Diego: "A lot of people are already spending 50% of their income on their mortgage payment. If the interest rates go up, they're all of a sudden very cash poor, putting themselves in a position where they have to default on their loan and lose their house." As Dan Ruiz, a mortgage broker remarked, "what's the incentive of staying if you have no equity?"
Beware at intersections. Jeanne has left malfunctioning traffic signals in its wake. Over a million residents remain without power.
On Saturday and Sunday there were more than 10 quakes below the dome on Mt. St. Helens ranging from 2.0 to 2.8, the most in a 24-hour period since the eruption in October 1986. Seismologists suggest there could be a small explosion soon.
How will Fannie Mae's accounting troubles impact the housing market and the economy? Will it be simply a small explosion? Maybe we should ask a seismologist rather than the Wall Street experts.
Colin Powell: "We have seen an increase in anti-Americanism in the Muslim world...we are fighting an intense insurgency. Yes, it's getting worse." That sounds a bit different from the message Bush has been delivering to the American people. Why am I not surprised?
Crude is trading at $49.37 a barrel.
If you visit Florida, bring bug repellent. Jeanne has left such wet conditions that mosquitos are loving every minute of it.
For the first time in 27 years, the San Francisco 49ers did not score any points yesterday. For the first time since 1969, the Miami Dolphins began the season with a 0-3 record.
At the Electric Drive Transportation conference last week, experts stated fuel cell cars are 15 years off.
Donald T. Terry, a senior InterAmerican Development Bank official, stated that about $38 billion was sent to Latin American and Caribbean countries in 2003- mostly from the U.S. He expects the total to reach $45 billion in 2004. Interestingly, Latin America and the Caribbean received $29 billion in foreign aid and foreign investment combined in 2003. The IDB said the average wire transfer is $235, and that overall, 10% of Latin American and Caribbean residents receive remittances each year.
Elaine Worzala, professor of real estate at the University of San Diego: "A lot of people are already spending 50% of their income on their mortgage payment. If the interest rates go up, they're all of a sudden very cash poor, putting themselves in a position where they have to default on their loan and lose their house." As Dan Ruiz, a mortgage broker remarked, "what's the incentive of staying if you have no equity?"
Sunday, September 26, 2004
9/26/04 Records Are Made To Be Broken
Analysts will provide the average rate for investment returns and/or interest rates over time and provide a caveat comprised of a standard deviation. It looks great on paper until the ways of nature are placed into the mix. The last time four large storms occurred within six weeks was in Texas in 1886; however, with Jeanne, as Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami observed, it was the "first time ever that we know of that two hurricanes landed so close (2 miles) in place and time." As the adage goes, and without standard deviation, there's no avoiding death or taxes except maybe taxes for the likes of GE and dozens like it.
Sandra Carey: "Never mistake knowledge for wisdom. One helps you make a living, the other helps you make a life."
To survive a hurricane, communities provide get ready checklists that include all the items you should have handy. Unfortunately, the list does not provide a solution to the following: thousands are still without phone service from hurricane Frances; Florida Power & Light warned that customers seriously damaged by Jeanne may have to wait up to three weeks or more to get power. The company faced Jeanne with far fewer outside repair crews than were available at the start of Frances; the hurricanes have impacted the ability to obtain homeowners' insurance since most insurers do not write policies when a hurricane threatens; and real estate closings have been impacted by property re-inspections for repairs.
Prior to the storm arriving late last night, emergency measures were instituted: there were mandatory evacuations of at least two million people; curfews were put into place; bridges were closed; airports were shut down; malls closed around noon but Home Depot and Lowe's remained open to provide necessary supplies; people moved themselves away from coastlines, and all hotel rooms west of I 95 in Broward county, for example, were booked. This morning most residents in Palm Beach County are without power but in Broward county only about 80,000. It was only until 48 hours ago that most residents truly took the potential brunt of Jeanne seriously. How could 4 storms take place in such a short time? After all, standard deviation indicates this should not happen. Records are made to be broken.
Albert Einstein: "Look deep, deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better."
Analysts will provide the average rate for investment returns and/or interest rates over time and provide a caveat comprised of a standard deviation. It looks great on paper until the ways of nature are placed into the mix. The last time four large storms occurred within six weeks was in Texas in 1886; however, with Jeanne, as Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami observed, it was the "first time ever that we know of that two hurricanes landed so close (2 miles) in place and time." As the adage goes, and without standard deviation, there's no avoiding death or taxes except maybe taxes for the likes of GE and dozens like it.
Sandra Carey: "Never mistake knowledge for wisdom. One helps you make a living, the other helps you make a life."
To survive a hurricane, communities provide get ready checklists that include all the items you should have handy. Unfortunately, the list does not provide a solution to the following: thousands are still without phone service from hurricane Frances; Florida Power & Light warned that customers seriously damaged by Jeanne may have to wait up to three weeks or more to get power. The company faced Jeanne with far fewer outside repair crews than were available at the start of Frances; the hurricanes have impacted the ability to obtain homeowners' insurance since most insurers do not write policies when a hurricane threatens; and real estate closings have been impacted by property re-inspections for repairs.
Prior to the storm arriving late last night, emergency measures were instituted: there were mandatory evacuations of at least two million people; curfews were put into place; bridges were closed; airports were shut down; malls closed around noon but Home Depot and Lowe's remained open to provide necessary supplies; people moved themselves away from coastlines, and all hotel rooms west of I 95 in Broward county, for example, were booked. This morning most residents in Palm Beach County are without power but in Broward county only about 80,000. It was only until 48 hours ago that most residents truly took the potential brunt of Jeanne seriously. How could 4 storms take place in such a short time? After all, standard deviation indicates this should not happen. Records are made to be broken.
Albert Einstein: "Look deep, deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better."
Friday, September 24, 2004
9/25/04 No End In Sight
The Economic Cycle Research Institute's director of research, Anirvan Banerji, stated "the ECRI and its growth rate have been essentially flat for a couple of months, after falling sharply starting in the spring. That suggests that the economic slowdown we are now seeing is real and there is no end in sight."
According to the weekly index compiled by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, the ECRI index fell 0.3% last week, the eighth consecutive weekly decline.
Economy.com's Sophia Koropeckys: "Rising oil prices and geo-political concerns as well as high pension and healthcare costs seem to be constraining hiring. Business confidence remains fragile despite strong profitability and cash flow."
Jared Bernstein: "Whenever you see a spike in self-employment in this kind of economy, you know that it is involuntary entrepreneurship."
Lyndon B. Johnson: "Did you ever think that making a speech on economics is a lot like pissing down your leg? It seems hot to you, but it never does to anyone else."
According to the Northwest Federation of Community Organizations, more than a quarter of the job openings in Washington state pay less than $20,942 a year, the minimum income needed by a single adult to cover rent, health insurance, food, and transportation. In addition, 77% of job openings statewide paid less than a single parent with two children would need to earn at least $43,608 to make ends meet in Washington.
Agere will announce "material" job cuts next week. Miramax to cut workforce by another 13% or 55 employees.
The yield curve experienced a significant flattening this week. The spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds narrowed to 145 basis points. Some might suggest that indicates very modest levels of inflation. Some might suggest it indicates slower growth. Others believe it reflects an economy on firmer footing, and therefore, the Fed will continue to raise short-term rates and that places pressure on the 2-year bonds. Let me state that, for the last eight trading days, this spread has narrowed. At the end of 2003, the spread was 242 basis points. After subtracting core consumer prices that rose 1.7% over the past 12 months, the 10-year bond would yield 2.33%. Over the last 10 years, the real yield has averaged about 3.25%. It would be, in my view, a serious mistake for the Fed to tighten again. Consumer spending, job creation, and real salaries and wages are disappointing. With crude closing at a new record high of $48.88 per barrel, the economy doesn't need more headwinds.
U.S. August existing home sales fell 2.7% to 6.54 million, the second consecutive month of declining sales. Average U.S. home prices have risen 24% since 2001 or much faster than wages, and this has created eroding affordability.
The headlines for August durable goods showed that orders dropped 0.5% but increased 2.3% when orders for planes were excluded. Some large shifts took place between July and August. In July Boeing booked orders for 75 planes. In August the bookings dropped to 20. Orders for core capital goods excluding defense and civilian aircraft fell 0.5% in August after gaining 0.6% in July. Core capital goods are a good indicator of demand for investment goods. On the other hand, shipments for the month rose 1.4%, and business was particularly strong for communications equipment. Interestingly, shipments for machinery fell 1.1%. A big swing were orders for autos that climbed 5.7%. The month before they declined 4.5%. Orders for defense capital goods increased 4.5% while shipments increased 1.5%. Additionally, unfilled orders for August increased 0.3%, while inventories rose 0.6%. As economist Robert Brusca stated, "the report is pretty firm but it does not point to much job growth ahead." Morgan Stanley lowered their forecast for September job creation to 100,000. Some brokerage firms raised their estimate for 3rd quarter GDP growth and some lowered their projections.
Since the invasion of Iraq, 1,040 U.S. service members have been killed and close to 7,500 have been wounded.
Philip Stevens of the Financial Times: "By any objective measure America stands on the brink of strategic failure in Iraq, but the U.S. president is fighting an election. So, at every turn, loud determination defies grim reality... the rising death toll of innocent civilians, the pitiless barbarism of the hostage-takers led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and the impotence of an American military increasingly confined to its fortified bases bear daily witness to the gathering catastrophe in Iraq."
Ronald Reagan: "History teaches that war begins when governments believe the price of aggresssion is cheap."
The Economic Cycle Research Institute's director of research, Anirvan Banerji, stated "the ECRI and its growth rate have been essentially flat for a couple of months, after falling sharply starting in the spring. That suggests that the economic slowdown we are now seeing is real and there is no end in sight."
According to the weekly index compiled by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, the ECRI index fell 0.3% last week, the eighth consecutive weekly decline.
Economy.com's Sophia Koropeckys: "Rising oil prices and geo-political concerns as well as high pension and healthcare costs seem to be constraining hiring. Business confidence remains fragile despite strong profitability and cash flow."
Jared Bernstein: "Whenever you see a spike in self-employment in this kind of economy, you know that it is involuntary entrepreneurship."
Lyndon B. Johnson: "Did you ever think that making a speech on economics is a lot like pissing down your leg? It seems hot to you, but it never does to anyone else."
According to the Northwest Federation of Community Organizations, more than a quarter of the job openings in Washington state pay less than $20,942 a year, the minimum income needed by a single adult to cover rent, health insurance, food, and transportation. In addition, 77% of job openings statewide paid less than a single parent with two children would need to earn at least $43,608 to make ends meet in Washington.
Agere will announce "material" job cuts next week. Miramax to cut workforce by another 13% or 55 employees.
The yield curve experienced a significant flattening this week. The spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds narrowed to 145 basis points. Some might suggest that indicates very modest levels of inflation. Some might suggest it indicates slower growth. Others believe it reflects an economy on firmer footing, and therefore, the Fed will continue to raise short-term rates and that places pressure on the 2-year bonds. Let me state that, for the last eight trading days, this spread has narrowed. At the end of 2003, the spread was 242 basis points. After subtracting core consumer prices that rose 1.7% over the past 12 months, the 10-year bond would yield 2.33%. Over the last 10 years, the real yield has averaged about 3.25%. It would be, in my view, a serious mistake for the Fed to tighten again. Consumer spending, job creation, and real salaries and wages are disappointing. With crude closing at a new record high of $48.88 per barrel, the economy doesn't need more headwinds.
U.S. August existing home sales fell 2.7% to 6.54 million, the second consecutive month of declining sales. Average U.S. home prices have risen 24% since 2001 or much faster than wages, and this has created eroding affordability.
The headlines for August durable goods showed that orders dropped 0.5% but increased 2.3% when orders for planes were excluded. Some large shifts took place between July and August. In July Boeing booked orders for 75 planes. In August the bookings dropped to 20. Orders for core capital goods excluding defense and civilian aircraft fell 0.5% in August after gaining 0.6% in July. Core capital goods are a good indicator of demand for investment goods. On the other hand, shipments for the month rose 1.4%, and business was particularly strong for communications equipment. Interestingly, shipments for machinery fell 1.1%. A big swing were orders for autos that climbed 5.7%. The month before they declined 4.5%. Orders for defense capital goods increased 4.5% while shipments increased 1.5%. Additionally, unfilled orders for August increased 0.3%, while inventories rose 0.6%. As economist Robert Brusca stated, "the report is pretty firm but it does not point to much job growth ahead." Morgan Stanley lowered their forecast for September job creation to 100,000. Some brokerage firms raised their estimate for 3rd quarter GDP growth and some lowered their projections.
Since the invasion of Iraq, 1,040 U.S. service members have been killed and close to 7,500 have been wounded.
Philip Stevens of the Financial Times: "By any objective measure America stands on the brink of strategic failure in Iraq, but the U.S. president is fighting an election. So, at every turn, loud determination defies grim reality... the rising death toll of innocent civilians, the pitiless barbarism of the hostage-takers led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and the impotence of an American military increasingly confined to its fortified bases bear daily witness to the gathering catastrophe in Iraq."
Ronald Reagan: "History teaches that war begins when governments believe the price of aggresssion is cheap."
9/24/04 A Closer Look At The LEI
Positive contributions to the Leading Economic Indicators Index in August were: manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials; real money supply; and average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted). The negative factors were: the interest rate spread; building permits; index of consumer expectations; manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods; vendor performance; and stock prices. During the six months through August, the leading index increased 0.7%, hardly a sign of much economic strength.
Ken Goldstein, chief economist for the Conference Board: “The leading indicators continue to suffer. There is concern about weak consumption and the pace of wage and salary increases. Consumers worry about their wages and salaries, which could limit spending. Businesses worry about their ability to raise prices and cover rising costs.” This message sounds quite different from that provided by the Fed.
P.J. O’Rourke: “The Democrats are the party that says government will make you smarter, taller, richer, and remove the crabgrass on your lawn. The Republicans are the party that says government doesn’t work and then they get elected and prove it.”
According to the IRS, total corporate income tax receipts declined to $128.8 billion in 2003, down 13.4% from 2001’s $148.7 billion. During the interim two years, pre-tax corporate income rose sharply as did the federal government deficit.
Joseph Binkman, Stanford law professor and an expert on business taxes, stated “given our current huge deficit, we’re replacing taxes with debt. When the debt comes due, today’s tax cuts are a tax on our children.”
P.J. O’Rourke: When government does, occasionally, work, it works in an elitist fashion. That is, government is most easily manipulated by people who have money and power already. That is why government benefits usually go to people who don’t need benefits from government. Government may make some environmental improvements, but these will be improvements for rich bird-watchers. And no one in government will remember that when poor people go bird watching they do it at Kentucky Fried Chicken.’
GM stated they are way behind on their plan to break-even in Europe as pricing there has been more challenging than anticipated and structural costs are too high. GM expects to spend $5.1 billion on healthcare this year, and that is equal to its budget for capital expenditures.
December gold closed at $412.60.
Last week 600,000 barrels of oil were added to the Strategic Oil Reserve. That did not get any publicity. I wonder why. That same 600,000 barrels would have curtailed the loan request from refiners. That loan request, and complying with it, got plenty of publicity. I wonder why. In sum, our giving federal government will lend oil to a few refiners and the amount will equate to that purchased last week.
The Cingular Wireless purchase of AT&T Wireless will close shortly. The latter has 31,000 employees. With the acquisition, there will be many departmental duplications, such as, HR, sales, and marketing. Thousands of employees will lose their jobs. TRW Automotive ceased production yesterday at its Pitt, NC plant near Greenville. They laid off 105 people. Since 2003, more than 2,000 manufacturing jobs have been eliminated in Pitt and several surrounding counties.
Positive contributions to the Leading Economic Indicators Index in August were: manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials; real money supply; and average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted). The negative factors were: the interest rate spread; building permits; index of consumer expectations; manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods; vendor performance; and stock prices. During the six months through August, the leading index increased 0.7%, hardly a sign of much economic strength.
Ken Goldstein, chief economist for the Conference Board: “The leading indicators continue to suffer. There is concern about weak consumption and the pace of wage and salary increases. Consumers worry about their wages and salaries, which could limit spending. Businesses worry about their ability to raise prices and cover rising costs.” This message sounds quite different from that provided by the Fed.
P.J. O’Rourke: “The Democrats are the party that says government will make you smarter, taller, richer, and remove the crabgrass on your lawn. The Republicans are the party that says government doesn’t work and then they get elected and prove it.”
According to the IRS, total corporate income tax receipts declined to $128.8 billion in 2003, down 13.4% from 2001’s $148.7 billion. During the interim two years, pre-tax corporate income rose sharply as did the federal government deficit.
Joseph Binkman, Stanford law professor and an expert on business taxes, stated “given our current huge deficit, we’re replacing taxes with debt. When the debt comes due, today’s tax cuts are a tax on our children.”
P.J. O’Rourke: When government does, occasionally, work, it works in an elitist fashion. That is, government is most easily manipulated by people who have money and power already. That is why government benefits usually go to people who don’t need benefits from government. Government may make some environmental improvements, but these will be improvements for rich bird-watchers. And no one in government will remember that when poor people go bird watching they do it at Kentucky Fried Chicken.’
GM stated they are way behind on their plan to break-even in Europe as pricing there has been more challenging than anticipated and structural costs are too high. GM expects to spend $5.1 billion on healthcare this year, and that is equal to its budget for capital expenditures.
December gold closed at $412.60.
Last week 600,000 barrels of oil were added to the Strategic Oil Reserve. That did not get any publicity. I wonder why. That same 600,000 barrels would have curtailed the loan request from refiners. That loan request, and complying with it, got plenty of publicity. I wonder why. In sum, our giving federal government will lend oil to a few refiners and the amount will equate to that purchased last week.
The Cingular Wireless purchase of AT&T Wireless will close shortly. The latter has 31,000 employees. With the acquisition, there will be many departmental duplications, such as, HR, sales, and marketing. Thousands of employees will lose their jobs. TRW Automotive ceased production yesterday at its Pitt, NC plant near Greenville. They laid off 105 people. Since 2003, more than 2,000 manufacturing jobs have been eliminated in Pitt and several surrounding counties.
Thursday, September 23, 2004
9/23/04 What Matters?
It depends on who is doing the talking. There are some who truly believe that unemployment has no bearing on stock prices. Some believe these record oil prices do not influence and/or impact consumer spending. Ther are money managers who follow the belief that one should be fully invested at all times because the market has risen 9% a year over time. When it comes to the economy, many economists believe it is output or production that is the final arbiter of business cycles. Interestingly, all of these examples reside in macro economics, and the latter matters to me in my investment decisions.
Pimco's Paul McCulley: Re the November election, "a Democratic win would be unambiguously bullish for bonds versus stocks because there would be deficit hawks (calling for) increasing taxes forthe affluent."
The ABC News/Money magazine consumer comfort index dropped to -9 in the week ended Sept. 19, down from -7 in the previous week.
Lucent is planning additional cuts in retiree health-care benefits.
Yesterday, October heating oil traded at an all-time high of $1.34 a gallon. With crude inventories falling 9.1 million barrels and gasoline inventories declining by 3.3 million barrels, it was not surprising to see crude oil jump to $48.35 a gallon. This is about $1 below the clsoing all-time high for crude oil.
The death toll and the list of wounded U.S. service members continue to escalate in Iraq. The number of daily attacks is on the rise. Does this matter to voters? Does it matter that the war on terror and the war of choice in Iraq are not one and the same? Does it matter we invaded Iraq over the supposed existence of WMD and then changed the reason to rid the world of Saddam Hussein? Doe sit matter that the costs for Medicare were deliberately under-estimated to Congress?
Do you want to lsiten to the message being delivered by the U.S. Treasury market or by the Federal Reserve? How is it possible that the Fed is all-knowing that the "natural rate" for short-term interest rates should be about 2.5% while 10-year Treasury bonds traded yesterday at 3.97%? How can the economy be gaining traction while the yield curve dramatically flattens? We are approaching a differential of 150 basis points between 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds.
It might be wise to keep an eye on the UK housing market. I is cooling down. Ther are signs that the housing market is slowing in the U.S. It is not to be found in new housing starts; however,the drop in housing permits will translate into declining construction. There is another sign. When placing a property on the market, one needs to hire a building construction inspector, one who can describe what structural deficiencies might exist and need to be fixed. Over the past couple of years there has been a wait to hire such an individual. Now, in most cases, there isn't a wait. That matters. It's a sure sign of slowing. Home construction has been the most consistent growth engine for our economy during the Bush term in office. It may play a much more diminished role over the next four years. That spells trouble, on the one hand, for employment in the construction trades and for cash flow emanating from rising home prices and home equity lines of credit. On the other hand, it may also mean lower inflation with less demand for lumber and other building materials.
Today we will be reading about the weekly first-time initial jobless claims and the monthly leading economic indicators for August. I anticipate both will reflect a slowing economy, an economy with a rapidly flattening yield curve. Rapidily it is, and this matters. That is very bad news for common stocks, and is one reason why rallies in the Dow, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq are short-lived.
Nintendo DS will debut in North American stores on November 21. It will sell for $149.99.
About 90% of Japan's imported beef presently arrive from Australia.
According to Mic Dinsmore, chief executive of the Port of Seattle, the U.S. has 361 river ports and seaports, and every day 21,000 containers enter our country but at present only 4 to 6% of these containers' contents are verified.
Due to technical problems, the following is a continuation from the above sections written about 8 hours ago.
The WSJ stated "the economy is an electoral curveball...Bush may benefit from recent bright signs, but job and income issues could help Kerry." Consider these bright signs: initial jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 18 rose by 14,000 to 350,000, higher than the prior 4-week moving average; the August Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.3%, the third consecutive monthly decline. I would anticipate another decline in September; with rising incentives needed to move bloated inventories, GM's profit per vehicle sold in the U.S. in 2004 could drop to $150 from the $180 recorded in 2003, the same year Toyota earned $1,700 on each vehicle they sold in the U.S.; and over the past 12 months, consumer prices rose 2.7% while average hourly wages for production workers were up 2.3%
There is speculation that Agere Systems will cut 205 of their employees and Commerce One will file for bankruptcy protection.
Thank goodness for Homeland Security. We're safe from Cat Stevens!
It depends on who is doing the talking. There are some who truly believe that unemployment has no bearing on stock prices. Some believe these record oil prices do not influence and/or impact consumer spending. Ther are money managers who follow the belief that one should be fully invested at all times because the market has risen 9% a year over time. When it comes to the economy, many economists believe it is output or production that is the final arbiter of business cycles. Interestingly, all of these examples reside in macro economics, and the latter matters to me in my investment decisions.
Pimco's Paul McCulley: Re the November election, "a Democratic win would be unambiguously bullish for bonds versus stocks because there would be deficit hawks (calling for) increasing taxes forthe affluent."
The ABC News/Money magazine consumer comfort index dropped to -9 in the week ended Sept. 19, down from -7 in the previous week.
Lucent is planning additional cuts in retiree health-care benefits.
Yesterday, October heating oil traded at an all-time high of $1.34 a gallon. With crude inventories falling 9.1 million barrels and gasoline inventories declining by 3.3 million barrels, it was not surprising to see crude oil jump to $48.35 a gallon. This is about $1 below the clsoing all-time high for crude oil.
The death toll and the list of wounded U.S. service members continue to escalate in Iraq. The number of daily attacks is on the rise. Does this matter to voters? Does it matter that the war on terror and the war of choice in Iraq are not one and the same? Does it matter we invaded Iraq over the supposed existence of WMD and then changed the reason to rid the world of Saddam Hussein? Doe sit matter that the costs for Medicare were deliberately under-estimated to Congress?
Do you want to lsiten to the message being delivered by the U.S. Treasury market or by the Federal Reserve? How is it possible that the Fed is all-knowing that the "natural rate" for short-term interest rates should be about 2.5% while 10-year Treasury bonds traded yesterday at 3.97%? How can the economy be gaining traction while the yield curve dramatically flattens? We are approaching a differential of 150 basis points between 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds.
It might be wise to keep an eye on the UK housing market. I is cooling down. Ther are signs that the housing market is slowing in the U.S. It is not to be found in new housing starts; however,the drop in housing permits will translate into declining construction. There is another sign. When placing a property on the market, one needs to hire a building construction inspector, one who can describe what structural deficiencies might exist and need to be fixed. Over the past couple of years there has been a wait to hire such an individual. Now, in most cases, there isn't a wait. That matters. It's a sure sign of slowing. Home construction has been the most consistent growth engine for our economy during the Bush term in office. It may play a much more diminished role over the next four years. That spells trouble, on the one hand, for employment in the construction trades and for cash flow emanating from rising home prices and home equity lines of credit. On the other hand, it may also mean lower inflation with less demand for lumber and other building materials.
Today we will be reading about the weekly first-time initial jobless claims and the monthly leading economic indicators for August. I anticipate both will reflect a slowing economy, an economy with a rapidly flattening yield curve. Rapidily it is, and this matters. That is very bad news for common stocks, and is one reason why rallies in the Dow, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq are short-lived.
Nintendo DS will debut in North American stores on November 21. It will sell for $149.99.
About 90% of Japan's imported beef presently arrive from Australia.
According to Mic Dinsmore, chief executive of the Port of Seattle, the U.S. has 361 river ports and seaports, and every day 21,000 containers enter our country but at present only 4 to 6% of these containers' contents are verified.
Due to technical problems, the following is a continuation from the above sections written about 8 hours ago.
The WSJ stated "the economy is an electoral curveball...Bush may benefit from recent bright signs, but job and income issues could help Kerry." Consider these bright signs: initial jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 18 rose by 14,000 to 350,000, higher than the prior 4-week moving average; the August Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.3%, the third consecutive monthly decline. I would anticipate another decline in September; with rising incentives needed to move bloated inventories, GM's profit per vehicle sold in the U.S. in 2004 could drop to $150 from the $180 recorded in 2003, the same year Toyota earned $1,700 on each vehicle they sold in the U.S.; and over the past 12 months, consumer prices rose 2.7% while average hourly wages for production workers were up 2.3%
There is speculation that Agere Systems will cut 205 of their employees and Commerce One will file for bankruptcy protection.
Thank goodness for Homeland Security. We're safe from Cat Stevens!
Wednesday, September 22, 2004
9/22/04 2004: The Year Of The Disconnect
Yesterday was an important day in the bond market. All eyes were on the Fed as their members voted unanimously to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1 ¾ percent, and the discount rate by 25 basis points to 2 ¾ percent. Prior to the meeting, 10-year Treasury bonds were trading at 4.08%. By the close of trading, the yield had dropped to 4.04%, and that was just above the day’s low at 4.03%. Significantly, the yield curve flattened to the narrowest point since September 2001. The spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 157 basis points. In sum, despite the Fed stating output regained some traction and that the labor market improved modestly, the long Treasury market ignored the Fed’s description of the economic conditions in our country. There is a disconnect between 10-year Treasury yields and the Fed raising short-term rates. Moreover, the flattening of the yield curve describes a viewpoint that the economy is slowing dramatically. Some traders mentioned that the rally in 10-year Treasury bonds reflected a fear of convexity where mortgage players buy 10-year Treasury bonds to enhance their income and duration shortfalls due to rising prepayment risks. Convexity measures the way duration and price change when interest rates change. That may have played a part in the buying of 10-year Treasury bonds yesterday, but let’s keep it real. The yield on the 10-year has recently dropped from 4.88% to 4.04%. Something a lot big than convexity fears is going on to generate such a decline. It’s called the economy grinding to a halt. It’s called the tapped out consumer. It’s called borrowing about $2 billion per day from foreign sources pushing our country into possible financial ruin.
Yesterday, crude oil closed at $47.10 per barrel, October heating oil at $1.30 per gallon, and October natural gas at $5.60 per BTU.
RF Micro Devices warned that their sales forecast would fall short of expectations due to an inventory glut in Asian electronics. They had lower than anticipated sales to certain Mobile phone customers. Meanwhile, Samsung, the world’s second largest chipmaker, stated that memory chip prices will fall sharply.
Interstate Bakeries filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy. GM will cut 3,000 jobs in Europe. Continental Tire North America has decided to close its Mayfield, KY tire plant that employs 827 people. Continental stated the plant is its most expensive factory to operate in North America. Plexus is cutting 160 jobs.
While U.S. housing starts rose 0.6% in August to a 2 million annual rate, building permits fell 5.5% to 1.952 million units.
Ralph Waldo Emerson: "It is said that the world is in a state of bankruptcy, that the world owes the world more than the world can pay."
Norway is a large oil producer. Norwegian bonds are backed by large oil reserves.
P.J. O’Rourke: "You’re into derivatives whether you like it or not. Your adjustable rate mortgage is a derivative. You got a deal on a loan that was cheaper at any time than a fixed-rate mortgage. In return you’re taking a risk. Your risk is that the amount of interest you’ll pay in the future will be decided from a formula involving the prime rate, T-bills, and the chairman of Chase Manhattan’s boxer shorts waistband size. In this case, the underlying commodity is banker fat."
The British ambassador to Rome stated Bush is "al-Qaeda’s best recruiting sergeant…If anyone is ready to celebrate the eventual re-election of Bush, it’s al-Qaeda."
GM is planning a clearance sale next week on 2004 models, offering zero-percent financing for 72 months to help unload a backlog of inventory. GM spent an average of $4,379 per vehicle on incentives, the most of any major automaker, and still inventories rose in August. Bob Schnorbus, chief economist for J.D. Power and Associates, stated "for whatever reason, consumers right now just aren’t in a buying mood."
A recent study by Research and Markets indicated that the worldwide analgesic market was worth $38 billion last year and is expected to nearly double to $75 billion by the year 2010.
Jim Cramer provided the joke of the day. He stated "the simple truth about this economy is that while nothing’s ever perfect, we’ve got a bit of a barn-burner on our hands." Funny stuff.
Yesterday was an important day in the bond market. All eyes were on the Fed as their members voted unanimously to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1 ¾ percent, and the discount rate by 25 basis points to 2 ¾ percent. Prior to the meeting, 10-year Treasury bonds were trading at 4.08%. By the close of trading, the yield had dropped to 4.04%, and that was just above the day’s low at 4.03%. Significantly, the yield curve flattened to the narrowest point since September 2001. The spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 157 basis points. In sum, despite the Fed stating output regained some traction and that the labor market improved modestly, the long Treasury market ignored the Fed’s description of the economic conditions in our country. There is a disconnect between 10-year Treasury yields and the Fed raising short-term rates. Moreover, the flattening of the yield curve describes a viewpoint that the economy is slowing dramatically. Some traders mentioned that the rally in 10-year Treasury bonds reflected a fear of convexity where mortgage players buy 10-year Treasury bonds to enhance their income and duration shortfalls due to rising prepayment risks. Convexity measures the way duration and price change when interest rates change. That may have played a part in the buying of 10-year Treasury bonds yesterday, but let’s keep it real. The yield on the 10-year has recently dropped from 4.88% to 4.04%. Something a lot big than convexity fears is going on to generate such a decline. It’s called the economy grinding to a halt. It’s called the tapped out consumer. It’s called borrowing about $2 billion per day from foreign sources pushing our country into possible financial ruin.
Yesterday, crude oil closed at $47.10 per barrel, October heating oil at $1.30 per gallon, and October natural gas at $5.60 per BTU.
RF Micro Devices warned that their sales forecast would fall short of expectations due to an inventory glut in Asian electronics. They had lower than anticipated sales to certain Mobile phone customers. Meanwhile, Samsung, the world’s second largest chipmaker, stated that memory chip prices will fall sharply.
Interstate Bakeries filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy. GM will cut 3,000 jobs in Europe. Continental Tire North America has decided to close its Mayfield, KY tire plant that employs 827 people. Continental stated the plant is its most expensive factory to operate in North America. Plexus is cutting 160 jobs.
While U.S. housing starts rose 0.6% in August to a 2 million annual rate, building permits fell 5.5% to 1.952 million units.
Ralph Waldo Emerson: "It is said that the world is in a state of bankruptcy, that the world owes the world more than the world can pay."
Norway is a large oil producer. Norwegian bonds are backed by large oil reserves.
P.J. O’Rourke: "You’re into derivatives whether you like it or not. Your adjustable rate mortgage is a derivative. You got a deal on a loan that was cheaper at any time than a fixed-rate mortgage. In return you’re taking a risk. Your risk is that the amount of interest you’ll pay in the future will be decided from a formula involving the prime rate, T-bills, and the chairman of Chase Manhattan’s boxer shorts waistband size. In this case, the underlying commodity is banker fat."
The British ambassador to Rome stated Bush is "al-Qaeda’s best recruiting sergeant…If anyone is ready to celebrate the eventual re-election of Bush, it’s al-Qaeda."
GM is planning a clearance sale next week on 2004 models, offering zero-percent financing for 72 months to help unload a backlog of inventory. GM spent an average of $4,379 per vehicle on incentives, the most of any major automaker, and still inventories rose in August. Bob Schnorbus, chief economist for J.D. Power and Associates, stated "for whatever reason, consumers right now just aren’t in a buying mood."
A recent study by Research and Markets indicated that the worldwide analgesic market was worth $38 billion last year and is expected to nearly double to $75 billion by the year 2010.
Jim Cramer provided the joke of the day. He stated "the simple truth about this economy is that while nothing’s ever perfect, we’ve got a bit of a barn-burner on our hands." Funny stuff.
Tuesday, September 21, 2004
9/21/04 Consumer Fatigue Is Gaining Traction
Pennsylvania Labor & Industry Secretary Stephen M. Schmerin stated "the jump in Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate from 5.3% in July to 5.6% in August indicates the state’s economy, like the rest of the nation’s, remains volatile for workers and businesses. The manufacturing sector aloe lost another 1,200 jobs in August, on top of 1,300 jobs lost in July…Regretfully, other companies, such as Wyeth Pharmaceuticals in Chester County, have already announced job cuts for later this year. Pennsylvania manufacturing jobs are now down 152,000 from March 2001, putting our manufacturing job count at a record low of 693,400. Overall, the Pennsylvania economy generated only 6,400 jobs last month, an increase of 0.1% that mirrored the national sluggish job growth rate."
Employment in low-wage industries, such as call centers and restaurants, is growing faster than in high-wage industries, such as manufacturing and commercial construction, according to an Oregon Employment Department analysis yet to be officially released. Low-wage industries also shrunk less than high-wage industries during the state’s recession from November 2000 to June 2003. Services supporting businesses, largely call centers, rank as the fastest-growing sector of Oregon’s economy, expanding by 66% since January 2001- three times faster than any other industry. In August, Oregon’s unemployment rate spiked six-tenths of a percentage point to 7.4%. For months, median household income has declined faster in Oregon than in the rest of the country, according to federal statistics.
Paul Samuelson: "Risk of inflation is not acute right now."
Yesterday, two U.S. soldiers were killed in a firefight with insurgents in Kabul. According to the Defense Department, 137 U.S. military personnel have died in Operation Enduring Freedom, launched after 9/11.
Douglas Henry, CEO of Henry Molded Products: "The fact that you have no margins brings to a screeching halt the reinvestment in growth and investment capability."
Eastman Kodak will close its only manufacturing and wholesale processing lab in Australia and cut 600 workers. Peoples Energy will cut 110 jobs. Dex Media will eliminate 160 jobs or 6% of its workforce. Overhead Storage to lay off 140 workers, or one-third of its employees.
Kathleen Bostjancic, economist: The consumer is really starting to show some fatigue here. Our big picture analysis is that the economic soft patch is turning out to be more than just a patch and that the economy is more vulnerable than the Fed had perceived."
Greenspan: "Despite the rise in oil prices through mid-August, inflation and inflation expectations have eased in recent months."
The core PCE price index rose 1.5% for the 12 months ending in July.
Superior Industries, a maker of aluminum auto parts, warned its third-quarter earnings would fall short of expectations because weak sales of cars and light trucks over the summer led to production cuts from major customers.
Bosch and Volkswagen stated that wage cuts may crimp consumer spending.
Georgia reported 1,649 foreclosures in August. Georgia’s total number of foreclosures is the second largest in the nation with 5,542 foreclosed residential properties. Texas, with a reported 8,364, has the most.
As of July 31, 2004, Cisco’s order backlog was $1.9 billion compared with $2 billion one year earlier.
KB Home raised its forecast for 2004 to $11 per share and to $14 per share for 2005.
For the first time in almost ten years, Colgate-Palmoive issued a formal profit warning, and stated that earnings would fall short of forecasts due to higher marketing and promotion expenses. Reuben Mark, chairman and chief executive, stated the company has "sharply increased marketing spending to build market share and aggressively improve our brand franchises here and abroad." Even so, gross profit margins for the full year 2004 would be "even with or slightly better than the record 55% set in 2003," noted Mark. The stock declined about 11% on this news. Over the years, I have often stated that, if given a choice for a chief executive to run a company, mine would be Reuben Mark.
Same-store sales at U.S. retail chains declined 1.1% in the week ended September 18 compared to the prior week, and the latter was not exactly a barn burner.
Pennsylvania Labor & Industry Secretary Stephen M. Schmerin stated "the jump in Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate from 5.3% in July to 5.6% in August indicates the state’s economy, like the rest of the nation’s, remains volatile for workers and businesses. The manufacturing sector aloe lost another 1,200 jobs in August, on top of 1,300 jobs lost in July…Regretfully, other companies, such as Wyeth Pharmaceuticals in Chester County, have already announced job cuts for later this year. Pennsylvania manufacturing jobs are now down 152,000 from March 2001, putting our manufacturing job count at a record low of 693,400. Overall, the Pennsylvania economy generated only 6,400 jobs last month, an increase of 0.1% that mirrored the national sluggish job growth rate."
Employment in low-wage industries, such as call centers and restaurants, is growing faster than in high-wage industries, such as manufacturing and commercial construction, according to an Oregon Employment Department analysis yet to be officially released. Low-wage industries also shrunk less than high-wage industries during the state’s recession from November 2000 to June 2003. Services supporting businesses, largely call centers, rank as the fastest-growing sector of Oregon’s economy, expanding by 66% since January 2001- three times faster than any other industry. In August, Oregon’s unemployment rate spiked six-tenths of a percentage point to 7.4%. For months, median household income has declined faster in Oregon than in the rest of the country, according to federal statistics.
Paul Samuelson: "Risk of inflation is not acute right now."
Yesterday, two U.S. soldiers were killed in a firefight with insurgents in Kabul. According to the Defense Department, 137 U.S. military personnel have died in Operation Enduring Freedom, launched after 9/11.
Douglas Henry, CEO of Henry Molded Products: "The fact that you have no margins brings to a screeching halt the reinvestment in growth and investment capability."
Eastman Kodak will close its only manufacturing and wholesale processing lab in Australia and cut 600 workers. Peoples Energy will cut 110 jobs. Dex Media will eliminate 160 jobs or 6% of its workforce. Overhead Storage to lay off 140 workers, or one-third of its employees.
Kathleen Bostjancic, economist: The consumer is really starting to show some fatigue here. Our big picture analysis is that the economic soft patch is turning out to be more than just a patch and that the economy is more vulnerable than the Fed had perceived."
Greenspan: "Despite the rise in oil prices through mid-August, inflation and inflation expectations have eased in recent months."
The core PCE price index rose 1.5% for the 12 months ending in July.
Superior Industries, a maker of aluminum auto parts, warned its third-quarter earnings would fall short of expectations because weak sales of cars and light trucks over the summer led to production cuts from major customers.
Bosch and Volkswagen stated that wage cuts may crimp consumer spending.
Georgia reported 1,649 foreclosures in August. Georgia’s total number of foreclosures is the second largest in the nation with 5,542 foreclosed residential properties. Texas, with a reported 8,364, has the most.
As of July 31, 2004, Cisco’s order backlog was $1.9 billion compared with $2 billion one year earlier.
KB Home raised its forecast for 2004 to $11 per share and to $14 per share for 2005.
For the first time in almost ten years, Colgate-Palmoive issued a formal profit warning, and stated that earnings would fall short of forecasts due to higher marketing and promotion expenses. Reuben Mark, chairman and chief executive, stated the company has "sharply increased marketing spending to build market share and aggressively improve our brand franchises here and abroad." Even so, gross profit margins for the full year 2004 would be "even with or slightly better than the record 55% set in 2003," noted Mark. The stock declined about 11% on this news. Over the years, I have often stated that, if given a choice for a chief executive to run a company, mine would be Reuben Mark.
Same-store sales at U.S. retail chains declined 1.1% in the week ended September 18 compared to the prior week, and the latter was not exactly a barn burner.
Monday, September 20, 2004
9/20/04 Crosses To Bear
Bellevue, Washington is a suburb on the Eastside of Seattle. It has many parks, and the community is one of the most affluent in the United States. Bill Gates, for example, lives in the Medina area of Bellevue. Yesterday, the Veterans for Peace planted 1,028 crosses on the lawn at the main city of Bellevue park. Each cross displayed the name, the age, the rank, and hometown of the U.S. soldier killed in Iraq during the past one and a half years, the period marking the war of choice. If a park in every town in the U.S. showcased these crosses, then the outcry about the Iraq war would be deafening. That’s the least we can do for these soldiers, and for their families left behind.
Sen. Chuck Hagel is a Vietnam War veteran and co-chairman of Bush’s re-election committee in Nebraska. He stated "the fact is we’re in trouble. We need more help from our allies. We need the Iraqi people to come around in a more supportive way. The fact is a crisp, sharp analysis of our policies is required. We didn’t do that in Vietnam, and we saw 11 years of casualties mount to the point where we finally lost."
Sen. Richard Lugar, also a Republican, mentioned that Congress had appropriated one year ago $18.4 for reconstruction, and that no more than $1 billion had been spent. He opined "this is the incompetence in the administration."
Yukos will halt deliveries to China’s biggest oil company. China is the world’s fastest growing energy market. On this news, crude rose this morning to $46.35 per barrel.
Ford will reduce production of six vehicles to trim inventories. We should be hearing from GM shortly.
Samsung stated the company sees a slowdown in the chip market. I wonder whether the Nasdaq will ignore this piece of information. There appears to be a growing complacency surrounding bad news. Everything is one big yawn. We’ll see who is left standing. It’s never smart to move up to the next weight class unless you have the skills to do it. Few do.
There is quite a battle developing on how much Medicare will cost. Bush promised his proposed benefits would cost no more than $400 billion over 10 years. The sentence was hardly finished when information was released contradicting the figure by at least $176 billion. Since it’s not Bush’s personal funds, he probably was a bit frivolous with projections. A CFO would have been fired on the spot. The fact is the costs of Medicare will jump significantly in 2006 and after 2006. As Robert Hayes, president of the Medicare Rights Center noted, "we’re in deep trouble." He is quite correct. Consumers are facing a debacle, and that is not an exaggeration. The aging of the population will create additional healthcare demands and costs that could easily decimate the cash flow of our seasoned citizens.
Bellevue, Washington is a suburb on the Eastside of Seattle. It has many parks, and the community is one of the most affluent in the United States. Bill Gates, for example, lives in the Medina area of Bellevue. Yesterday, the Veterans for Peace planted 1,028 crosses on the lawn at the main city of Bellevue park. Each cross displayed the name, the age, the rank, and hometown of the U.S. soldier killed in Iraq during the past one and a half years, the period marking the war of choice. If a park in every town in the U.S. showcased these crosses, then the outcry about the Iraq war would be deafening. That’s the least we can do for these soldiers, and for their families left behind.
Sen. Chuck Hagel is a Vietnam War veteran and co-chairman of Bush’s re-election committee in Nebraska. He stated "the fact is we’re in trouble. We need more help from our allies. We need the Iraqi people to come around in a more supportive way. The fact is a crisp, sharp analysis of our policies is required. We didn’t do that in Vietnam, and we saw 11 years of casualties mount to the point where we finally lost."
Sen. Richard Lugar, also a Republican, mentioned that Congress had appropriated one year ago $18.4 for reconstruction, and that no more than $1 billion had been spent. He opined "this is the incompetence in the administration."
Yukos will halt deliveries to China’s biggest oil company. China is the world’s fastest growing energy market. On this news, crude rose this morning to $46.35 per barrel.
Ford will reduce production of six vehicles to trim inventories. We should be hearing from GM shortly.
Samsung stated the company sees a slowdown in the chip market. I wonder whether the Nasdaq will ignore this piece of information. There appears to be a growing complacency surrounding bad news. Everything is one big yawn. We’ll see who is left standing. It’s never smart to move up to the next weight class unless you have the skills to do it. Few do.
There is quite a battle developing on how much Medicare will cost. Bush promised his proposed benefits would cost no more than $400 billion over 10 years. The sentence was hardly finished when information was released contradicting the figure by at least $176 billion. Since it’s not Bush’s personal funds, he probably was a bit frivolous with projections. A CFO would have been fired on the spot. The fact is the costs of Medicare will jump significantly in 2006 and after 2006. As Robert Hayes, president of the Medicare Rights Center noted, "we’re in deep trouble." He is quite correct. Consumers are facing a debacle, and that is not an exaggeration. The aging of the population will create additional healthcare demands and costs that could easily decimate the cash flow of our seasoned citizens.
Saturday, September 18, 2004
9/18/04 The Soft Patch Continues
A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic activity fell 0.2% last week, the fourth decline in a row and the sixth week without any growth. Lakshman Achuthan, director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, stated the ECRI weekly leading index is signaling "lackluster" growth through 2004 and into 2005. He opined that growth will not be strong enough to create many jobs.
Companies are trying new cost-cutting measures. Bon Macy’s, which is cutting Bon from its name, is also cutting weekly hours for many workers, and many of them have been with the company for over 10 years. Hours are being reduced to 25 hours or less per week. This reduction will cause a goodly percentage to look for a second job. Macy’s saves money on the reduced hours and they also save on reduced benefits. These workers are still employed but no longer full-time employees. Then there is Delta Airlines that cut 7,000 from its medical plan. I will no longer shop at Macy’s and will discontinue flying on Delta.
The Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Int’l trade group reported that August bookings were 5% below the revised July 2004 level and that billings were 1% below the revised July 2004 level. The research director for SEMI stated that "a number of recent company announcements suggest these levels may continue to soften in the coming months." That softening can only hinder the Nasdaq’s ability to move higher from present levels.
Over the last several months many readers have inquired as to where I get my information on plant closures and layoffs. I subscribe to a daily service and am provided emails throughout the day. They include company announcements and, whenever possible, local newspaper articles from the community that has been impacted.
As of September 15, 2,743 South Floridians have applied for disaster unemployment help due to lost work related to the hurricanes. That number is expected to rise. First Indiana Bank is cutting 30 jobs in a cost-control measure. Nexans Magnet Wire is closing its magnet-wire plant in La Grange, Ky. And 123 workers will lose their jobs.
According to the Cremation Association of North America, today roughly 25% of all deaths in the U.S. are followed by cremation, and the Association estimates that percentage will rise to 40% by 2010. It could prove the death knell for casket makers. Hillenbrand Industries of Batesville, Ind. is one of this nation’s largest casket makers. The company is laying off 100 workers in the U.S. and 130 in Europe, and lowered their 2004 earnings outlook. Hillenbrand stated casket sales fell because of the lower death rate and increased cremations. They also mentioned increased material costs, such as, steel and hardwood.
Mark Twain: "Don’t tell my mother I’m in politics. She thinks I play the piano in a whorehouse."
William Gibson, science fiction writer: "The future’s already here. It just isn’t evenly distributed."
The most recent Harris poll shows Bush’s ratings slipped to the lowest level of his Presidency. It indicates a reading of 45% positive and 54% negative. Cheney’s are 40% positive and 54% negative.
U.S. light crude oil gained $1.77 to $45.65 a barrel. I wonder whether the same analysts who proclaimed that unemployment and layoffs don’t impact the market also believe that high oil prices don’t matter either. Wal-Mart would take issue with the views of those analysts. The company is on the front lines with the consumer each and every day.
Barry Bonds hit home run number 700. Ichiro hit his 199th single of this season, breaking Lloyd Waner's 1927 mark of 198. Ichiron has 235 hits, 22 shy of George Sisler's 1920 mark of 257.
A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic activity fell 0.2% last week, the fourth decline in a row and the sixth week without any growth. Lakshman Achuthan, director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, stated the ECRI weekly leading index is signaling "lackluster" growth through 2004 and into 2005. He opined that growth will not be strong enough to create many jobs.
Companies are trying new cost-cutting measures. Bon Macy’s, which is cutting Bon from its name, is also cutting weekly hours for many workers, and many of them have been with the company for over 10 years. Hours are being reduced to 25 hours or less per week. This reduction will cause a goodly percentage to look for a second job. Macy’s saves money on the reduced hours and they also save on reduced benefits. These workers are still employed but no longer full-time employees. Then there is Delta Airlines that cut 7,000 from its medical plan. I will no longer shop at Macy’s and will discontinue flying on Delta.
The Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Int’l trade group reported that August bookings were 5% below the revised July 2004 level and that billings were 1% below the revised July 2004 level. The research director for SEMI stated that "a number of recent company announcements suggest these levels may continue to soften in the coming months." That softening can only hinder the Nasdaq’s ability to move higher from present levels.
Over the last several months many readers have inquired as to where I get my information on plant closures and layoffs. I subscribe to a daily service and am provided emails throughout the day. They include company announcements and, whenever possible, local newspaper articles from the community that has been impacted.
As of September 15, 2,743 South Floridians have applied for disaster unemployment help due to lost work related to the hurricanes. That number is expected to rise. First Indiana Bank is cutting 30 jobs in a cost-control measure. Nexans Magnet Wire is closing its magnet-wire plant in La Grange, Ky. And 123 workers will lose their jobs.
According to the Cremation Association of North America, today roughly 25% of all deaths in the U.S. are followed by cremation, and the Association estimates that percentage will rise to 40% by 2010. It could prove the death knell for casket makers. Hillenbrand Industries of Batesville, Ind. is one of this nation’s largest casket makers. The company is laying off 100 workers in the U.S. and 130 in Europe, and lowered their 2004 earnings outlook. Hillenbrand stated casket sales fell because of the lower death rate and increased cremations. They also mentioned increased material costs, such as, steel and hardwood.
Mark Twain: "Don’t tell my mother I’m in politics. She thinks I play the piano in a whorehouse."
William Gibson, science fiction writer: "The future’s already here. It just isn’t evenly distributed."
The most recent Harris poll shows Bush’s ratings slipped to the lowest level of his Presidency. It indicates a reading of 45% positive and 54% negative. Cheney’s are 40% positive and 54% negative.
U.S. light crude oil gained $1.77 to $45.65 a barrel. I wonder whether the same analysts who proclaimed that unemployment and layoffs don’t impact the market also believe that high oil prices don’t matter either. Wal-Mart would take issue with the views of those analysts. The company is on the front lines with the consumer each and every day.
Barry Bonds hit home run number 700. Ichiro hit his 199th single of this season, breaking Lloyd Waner's 1927 mark of 198. Ichiron has 235 hits, 22 shy of George Sisler's 1920 mark of 257.
9/18/04 The Soft Patch Continues
A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic activity fell 0.2% last week, the fourth decline in a row and the sixth week without any growth. Lakshman Achuthan, director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, stated the ECRI weekly leading index is signaling "lackluster" growth through 2004 and into 2005. He opined that growth will not be strong enough to create many jobs.
Companies are trying new cost-cutting measures. Bon Macy’s, which is cutting Bon from its name, is also cutting weekly hours for many workers, and many of them have been with the company for over 10 years. Hours are being reduced to 25 hours or less per week. This reduction will cause a goodly percentage to look fo����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic activity fell 0.2% last week, the fourth decline in a row and the sixth week without any growth. Lakshman Achuthan, director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, stated the ECRI weekly leading index is signaling "lackluster" growth through 2004 and into 2005. He opined that growth will not be strong enough to create many jobs.
Companies are trying new cost-cutting measures. Bon Macy’s, which is cutting Bon from its name, is also cutting weekly hours for many workers, and many of them have been with the company for over 10 years. Hours are being reduced to 25 hours or less per week. This reduction will cause a goodly percentage to look fo����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
9/18/04 The Soft Patch Continues
A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic activity fell 0.2% last week, the fourth decline in a row and the sixth week without any growth. Lakshman Achuthan, director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, stated the ECRI weekly leading index is signaling "lackluster" growth through 2004 and into 2005. He opined that growth will not be strong enough to create many jobs.
Companies are trying new cost-cutting measures. Bon Macy’s, which is cutting Bon from its name, is also cutting weekly hours for many workers, and many of them have been with the company for over 10 years. Hours are being reduced to 25 hours or less per week. This reduction will cause a goodly percentage to look for a second job. Macy’s saves money on the reduced hours and they also save on reduced benefits. These workers are still employed but no longer full-time employees. Then there is Delta Airlines that cut 7,000 from its medical plan. I will no longer shop at Macy’s and will discontinue flying on Delta.
The Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Int’l trade group reported that August bookings were 5% below the revised July 2004 level and that billings were 1% below the revised July 2004 level. The research director for SEMI stated that "a number of recent company announcements suggest these levels may continue to soften in the coming months." That softening can only hinder the Nasdaq’s ability to move higher from present levels.
Over the last several months many readers have inquired as to where I get my information on plant closures and layoffs. I subscribe to a daily service and am provided emails throughout the day. They include company announcements and, whenever possible, local newspaper articles from the community that has been impacted.
As of September 15, 2,743 South Floridians have applied for disaster unemployment help due to lost work related to the hurricanes. That number is expected to rise. First Indiana Bank is cutting 30 jobs in a cost-control measure. Nexans Magnet Wire is closing its magnet-wire plant in La Grange, Ky. And 123 workers will lose their jobs.
According to the Cremation Association of North America, today roughly 25% of all deaths in the U.S. are followed by cremation, and the Association estimates that percentage will rise to 40% by 2010. It could prove the death knell for casket makers. Hillenbrand Industries of Batesville, Ind. is one of this nation’s largest casket makers. The company is laying off 100 workers in the U.S. and 130 in Europe, and lowered their 2004 earnings outlook. Hillenbrand stated casket sales fell because of the lower death rate and increased cremations. They also mentioned increased material costs, such as, steel and hardwood.
Mark Twain: "Don’t tell my mother I’m in politics. She thinks I play the piano in a whorehouse."
William Gibson, science fiction writer: "The future’s already here. It just isn’t evenly distributed."
The most recent Harris poll shows Bush’s ratings slipped to the lowest level of his Presidency. It indicates a reading of 45% positive and 54% negative. Cheney’s are 40% positive and 54% negative.
U.S. light crude oil gained $1.77 to $45.65 a barrel. I wonder whether the same analysts who proclaimed that unemployment and layoffs don’t impact the market also believe that high oil prices don’t matter either. Wal-Mart would take issue with the views of those analysts. The company is on the front lines with the consumer each and every day.
A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic activity fell 0.2% last week, the fourth decline in a row and the sixth week without any growth. Lakshman Achuthan, director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, stated the ECRI weekly leading index is signaling "lackluster" growth through 2004 and into 2005. He opined that growth will not be strong enough to create many jobs.
Companies are trying new cost-cutting measures. Bon Macy’s, which is cutting Bon from its name, is also cutting weekly hours for many workers, and many of them have been with the company for over 10 years. Hours are being reduced to 25 hours or less per week. This reduction will cause a goodly percentage to look for a second job. Macy’s saves money on the reduced hours and they also save on reduced benefits. These workers are still employed but no longer full-time employees. Then there is Delta Airlines that cut 7,000 from its medical plan. I will no longer shop at Macy’s and will discontinue flying on Delta.
The Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Int’l trade group reported that August bookings were 5% below the revised July 2004 level and that billings were 1% below the revised July 2004 level. The research director for SEMI stated that "a number of recent company announcements suggest these levels may continue to soften in the coming months." That softening can only hinder the Nasdaq’s ability to move higher from present levels.
Over the last several months many readers have inquired as to where I get my information on plant closures and layoffs. I subscribe to a daily service and am provided emails throughout the day. They include company announcements and, whenever possible, local newspaper articles from the community that has been impacted.
As of September 15, 2,743 South Floridians have applied for disaster unemployment help due to lost work related to the hurricanes. That number is expected to rise. First Indiana Bank is cutting 30 jobs in a cost-control measure. Nexans Magnet Wire is closing its magnet-wire plant in La Grange, Ky. And 123 workers will lose their jobs.
According to the Cremation Association of North America, today roughly 25% of all deaths in the U.S. are followed by cremation, and the Association estimates that percentage will rise to 40% by 2010. It could prove the death knell for casket makers. Hillenbrand Industries of Batesville, Ind. is one of this nation’s largest casket makers. The company is laying off 100 workers in the U.S. and 130 in Europe, and lowered their 2004 earnings outlook. Hillenbrand stated casket sales fell because of the lower death rate and increased cremations. They also mentioned increased material costs, such as, steel and hardwood.
Mark Twain: "Don’t tell my mother I’m in politics. She thinks I play the piano in a whorehouse."
William Gibson, science fiction writer: "The future’s already here. It just isn’t evenly distributed."
The most recent Harris poll shows Bush’s ratings slipped to the lowest level of his Presidency. It indicates a reading of 45% positive and 54% negative. Cheney’s are 40% positive and 54% negative.
U.S. light crude oil gained $1.77 to $45.65 a barrel. I wonder whether the same analysts who proclaimed that unemployment and layoffs don’t impact the market also believe that high oil prices don’t matter either. Wal-Mart would take issue with the views of those analysts. The company is on the front lines with the consumer each and every day.
9/18/04 The Soft Patch Continues
A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic activity fell 0.2% last week, the fourth decline in a row and the sixth week without any growth. Lakshman Achuthan, director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, stated the ECRI weekly leading index is signaling "lackluster" growth through 2004 and into 2005. He opined that growth will not be strong enough to create many jobs.
Companies are trying new cost-cutting measures. Bon Macy’s, which is cutting Bon from its name, is also cutting weekly hours for many workers, and many of them have been with the company for over 10 years. Hours are being reduced to 25 hours or less per week. This reduction will cause a goodly percentage to look for a second job. Macy’s saves money on the reduced hours and they also save on reduced benefits. These workers are still employed but no longer full-time employees. Then there is Delta Airlines that cut 7,000 from its medical plan. I will no longer shop at Macy’s and will discontinue flying on Delta.
The Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Int’l trade group reported that August bookings were 5% below the revised July 2004 level and that billings were 1% below the revised July 2004 level. The research director for SEMI stated that "a number of recent company announcements suggest these levels may continue to soften in the coming months." That softening can only hinder the Nasdaq’s ability to move higher from present levels.
Over the last several months many readers have inquired as to where I get my information on plant closures and layoffs. I subscribe to a daily service and am provided emails throughout the day. They include company announcements and, whenever possible, local newspaper articles from the community that has been impacted.
As of September 15, 2,743 South Floridians have applied for disaster unemployment help due to lost work related to the hurricanes. That number is expected to rise. First Indiana Bank is cutting 30 jobs in a cost-control measure. Nexans Magnet Wire is closing its magnet-wire plant in La Grange, Ky. And 123 workers will lose their jobs.
According to the Cremation Association of North America, today roughly 25% of all deaths in the U.S. are followed by cremation, and the Association estimates that percentage will rise to 40% by 2010. It could prove the death knell for casket makers. Hillenbrand Industries of Batesville, Ind. is one of this nation’s largest casket makers. The company is laying off 100 workers in the U.S. and 130 in Europe, and lowered their 2004 earnings outlook. Hillenbrand stated casket sales fell because of the lower death rate and increased cremations. They also mentioned increased material costs, such as, steel and hardwood.
Mark Twain: "Don’t tell my mother I’m in politics. She thinks I play the piano in a whorehouse."
William Gibson, science fiction writer: "The future’s already here. It just isn’t evenly distributed."
The most recent Harris poll shows Bush’s ratings slipped to the lowest level of his Presidency. It indicates a reading of 45% positive and 54% negative. Cheney’s are 40% positive and 54% negative.
U.S. light crude oil gained $1.77 to $45.65 a barrel. I wonder whether the same analysts who proclaimed that unemployment and layoffs don’t impact the market also believe that high oil prices don’t matter either. Wal-Mart would take issue with the views of those analysts. The company is on the front lines with the consumer each and every day.
A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic activity fell 0.2% last week, the fourth decline in a row and the sixth week without any growth. Lakshman Achuthan, director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, stated the ECRI weekly leading index is signaling "lackluster" growth through 2004 and into 2005. He opined that growth will not be strong enough to create many jobs.
Companies are trying new cost-cutting measures. Bon Macy’s, which is cutting Bon from its name, is also cutting weekly hours for many workers, and many of them have been with the company for over 10 years. Hours are being reduced to 25 hours or less per week. This reduction will cause a goodly percentage to look for a second job. Macy’s saves money on the reduced hours and they also save on reduced benefits. These workers are still employed but no longer full-time employees. Then there is Delta Airlines that cut 7,000 from its medical plan. I will no longer shop at Macy’s and will discontinue flying on Delta.
The Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Int’l trade group reported that August bookings were 5% below the revised July 2004 level and that billings were 1% below the revised July 2004 level. The research director for SEMI stated that "a number of recent company announcements suggest these levels may continue to soften in the coming months." That softening can only hinder the Nasdaq’s ability to move higher from present levels.
Over the last several months many readers have inquired as to where I get my information on plant closures and layoffs. I subscribe to a daily service and am provided emails throughout the day. They include company announcements and, whenever possible, local newspaper articles from the community that has been impacted.
As of September 15, 2,743 South Floridians have applied for disaster unemployment help due to lost work related to the hurricanes. That number is expected to rise. First Indiana Bank is cutting 30 jobs in a cost-control measure. Nexans Magnet Wire is closing its magnet-wire plant in La Grange, Ky. And 123 workers will lose their jobs.
According to the Cremation Association of North America, today roughly 25% of all deaths in the U.S. are followed by cremation, and the Association estimates that percentage will rise to 40% by 2010. It could prove the death knell for casket makers. Hillenbrand Industries of Batesville, Ind. is one of this nation’s largest casket makers. The company is laying off 100 workers in the U.S. and 130 in Europe, and lowered their 2004 earnings outlook. Hillenbrand stated casket sales fell because of the lower death rate and increased cremations. They also mentioned increased material costs, such as, steel and hardwood.
Mark Twain: "Don’t tell my mother I’m in politics. She thinks I play the piano in a whorehouse."
William Gibson, science fiction writer: "The future’s already here. It just isn’t evenly distributed."
The most recent Harris poll shows Bush’s ratings slipped to the lowest level of his Presidency. It indicates a reading of 45% positive and 54% negative. Cheney’s are 40% positive and 54% negative.
U.S. light crude oil gained $1.77 to $45.65 a barrel. I wonder whether the same analysts who proclaimed that unemployment and layoffs don’t impact the market also believe that high oil prices don’t matter either. Wal-Mart would take issue with the views of those analysts. The company is on the front lines with the consumer each and every day.
9/18/04 The Soft Patch Continues
A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic activity fell 0.2% last week, the fourth decline in a row and the sixth week without any growth. Lakshman Achuthan, director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, stated the ECRI weekly leading index is signaling "lackluster" growth through 2004 and into 2005. He opined that growth will not be strong enough to create many jobs.
Companies are trying new cost-cutting measures. Bon Macy’s, which is cutting Bon from its name, is also cutting weekly hours for many workers, and many of them have been with the company for over 10 years. Hours are being reduced to 25 hours or less per week. This reduction will cause a goodly percentage to look for a second job. Macy’s saves money on the reduced hours and they also save on reduced benefits. These workers are still employed but no longer full-time employees. Then there is Delta Airlines that cut 7,000 from its medical plan. I will no longer shop at Macy’s and will discontinue flying on Delta.
The Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Int’l trade group reported that August bookings were 5% below the revised July 2004 level and that billings were 1% below the revised July 2004 level. The research director for SEMI stated that "a number of recent company announcements suggest these levels may continue to soften in the coming months." That softening can only hinder the Nasdaq’s ability to move higher from present levels.
Over the last several months many readers have inquired as to where I get my information on plant closures and layoffs. I subscribe to a daily service and am provided emails throughout the day. They include company announcements and, whenever possible, local newspaper articles from the community that has been impacted.
As of September 15, 2,743 South Floridians have applied for disaster unemployment help due to lost work related to the hurricanes. That number is expected to rise. First Indiana Bank is cutting 30 jobs in a cost-control measure. Nexans Magnet Wire is closing its magnet-wire plant in La Grange, Ky. And 123 workers will lose their jobs.
According to the Cremation Association of North America, today roughly 25% of all deaths in the U.S. are followed by cremation, and the Association estimates that percentage will rise to 40% by 2010. It could prove the death knell for casket makers. Hillenbrand Industries of Batesville, Ind. is one of this nation’s largest casket makers. The company is laying off 100 workers in the U.S. and 130 in Europe, and lowered their 2004 earnings outlook. Hillenbrand stated casket sales fell because of the lower death rate and increased cremations. They also mentioned increased material costs, such as, steel and hardwood.
Mark Twain: "Don’t tell my mother I’m in politics. She thinks I play the piano in a whorehouse."
William Gibson, science fiction writer: "The future’s already here. It just isn’t evenly distributed."
The most recent Harris poll shows Bush’s ratings slipped to the lowest level of his Presidency. It indicates a reading of 45% positive and 54% negative. Cheney’s are 40% positive and 54% negative.
U.S. light crude oil gained $1.77 to $45.65 a barrel. I wonder whether the same analysts who proclaimed that unemployment and layoffs don’t impact the market also believe that high oil prices don’t matter either. Wal-Mart would take issue with the views of those analysts. The company is on the front lines with the consumer each and every day.
A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic activity fell 0.2% last week, the fourth decline in a row and the sixth week without any growth. Lakshman Achuthan, director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, stated the ECRI weekly leading index is signaling "lackluster" growth through 2004 and into 2005. He opined that growth will not be strong enough to create many jobs.
Companies are trying new cost-cutting measures. Bon Macy’s, which is cutting Bon from its name, is also cutting weekly hours for many workers, and many of them have been with the company for over 10 years. Hours are being reduced to 25 hours or less per week. This reduction will cause a goodly percentage to look for a second job. Macy’s saves money on the reduced hours and they also save on reduced benefits. These workers are still employed but no longer full-time employees. Then there is Delta Airlines that cut 7,000 from its medical plan. I will no longer shop at Macy’s and will discontinue flying on Delta.
The Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Int’l trade group reported that August bookings were 5% below the revised July 2004 level and that billings were 1% below the revised July 2004 level. The research director for SEMI stated that "a number of recent company announcements suggest these levels may continue to soften in the coming months." That softening can only hinder the Nasdaq’s ability to move higher from present levels.
Over the last several months many readers have inquired as to where I get my information on plant closures and layoffs. I subscribe to a daily service and am provided emails throughout the day. They include company announcements and, whenever possible, local newspaper articles from the community that has been impacted.
As of September 15, 2,743 South Floridians have applied for disaster unemployment help due to lost work related to the hurricanes. That number is expected to rise. First Indiana Bank is cutting 30 jobs in a cost-control measure. Nexans Magnet Wire is closing its magnet-wire plant in La Grange, Ky. And 123 workers will lose their jobs.
According to the Cremation Association of North America, today roughly 25% of all deaths in the U.S. are followed by cremation, and the Association estimates that percentage will rise to 40% by 2010. It could prove the death knell for casket makers. Hillenbrand Industries of Batesville, Ind. is one of this nation’s largest casket makers. The company is laying off 100 workers in the U.S. and 130 in Europe, and lowered their 2004 earnings outlook. Hillenbrand stated casket sales fell because of the lower death rate and increased cremations. They also mentioned increased material costs, such as, steel and hardwood.
Mark Twain: "Don’t tell my mother I’m in politics. She thinks I play the piano in a whorehouse."
William Gibson, science fiction writer: "The future’s already here. It just isn’t evenly distributed."
The most recent Harris poll shows Bush’s ratings slipped to the lowest level of his Presidency. It indicates a reading of 45% positive and 54% negative. Cheney’s are 40% positive and 54% negative.
U.S. light crude oil gained $1.77 to $45.65 a barrel. I wonder whether the same analysts who proclaimed that unemployment and layoffs don’t impact the market also believe that high oil prices don’t matter either. Wal-Mart would take issue with the views of those analysts. The company is on the front lines with the consumer each and every day.
Friday, September 17, 2004
9/17/04 Bad News Bears
The news can and will get worse. A total of 1,020 U.S. service members have been killed in Iraq. The report by Charles Duelfer, chief U.S. weapons inspector, will show that, after a year and a half in Iraq, no WMD have been found. U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan stated the U.S. invasion of Iraq was illegal because it violated the U.N. charter. The U.S. is part of the 15-member Security Council and Annan said that Council should have approved the invasion. After the election, more troops will be sent to Iraq. This is Bush’s Vietnam.
The news on the business front will get worse. An example is the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index that fell in September to 13.4 from 28.5 in August. The future general activity index fell to 44.9 from 52.7. Meanwhile, our country’s debt continues to grow. U.S. second quarter non-financial debt grew at a 7.7% annual rate, close to triple the rate of growth of our GDP. U.S. second quarter debt grew at a 9.5% annual rate. The Federal debt increased at a 10.7% rate, down slightly from the 12% rate in the first quarter. There is no legitimate excuse for the Federal debt to rise at this rate. At the same time, according to the BLS, adjusted for the 0.1% increase in the CPI, real average weekly earnings increased by 0.2% from July to August. Average weekly hours were unchanged. The core CPI (excl. food and energy) is up 1.8% from one year ago, below the average of 2.3% over the past 10 years. The Fed, however, wants to raise interest rates again. If they raise the Fed Funds to 1.75 percent that will roughly equate to the core CPI rate of increase for the past 12 months. With GDP growth slowing, there is no reason to raise rates any more than that. If you doubt that growth is slowing, just look at the yield on 10 year treasury notes at 4.07%, the same level seen in February 2004.
If business were buoyant, there would not be as many plant closures and mass layoffs. United Airlines has about 62,000 employees, down from more than 100,000 three years ago. The CEO mentioned that additional significant job cuts can be expected, and there is speculation of changes in their Denver hub. The Maytag Galesburg, Ill. Plant closed its doors this week, and 900 jobs were lost- to Mexico. Maytag stated they would also layoff up to 170 workers at its washer and dryer plant in Newton, Iowa this month. The layoffs are due to lower demand for certain products at the Newton plant.
Jobless claims rose 16,000 in the week ending Sept. 16.
Nortel, North America’s largest maker of telecom equipment, stated that it expects to report lower third quarter revenues compared to the second quarter.
In June, international investors purchased a net $40.6 billion in U.S. gov’t debt. In July, that figure declined to $22.4 billion.
According to the CFSB Tremont hedge fund index, the average return for August was 0.1%, and a large percentage show losses year to date.
Households with over $100,000 in yearly income represent 22% of aggregate income in the U.S. compared with 18% only 10 years ago.
David O’Reilly, Chmn. & CEO of ChevronTexaco: "I think there is the potential for an underlying shift in value of the oil price. It is possible we are at the same place as we were in the late 1970s, although I don’t want to say that in absolute terms. There is a lack of spare capacity out there."
Fed Governor Edward Gramlich stated it is "virtually inevitable" that oil price shocks will result in some combination of higher inflation and higher unemployment for a time. However, he went on to say, that "our worst possible outcome is for monetary policy makers to let inflation come loose from its moorings." In actuality, it is the Fed that started the inflation ball rolling, such as, in housing, by printing money at double digit rates and keeping Fed Funds at artificially low levels. The "natural rate" for the Fed is a level where their screws do come loose from their moorings.
According to John S. Herold and Harrison Lovegrove & Co., last year oil companies spent about $30 billion on stock buybacks and $30 billion looking for new oil and gas fields.
In a new Harris poll, Kerry leads Bush 48% to 47%. The new Pew poll shows the candidates even. The Tradesports presidential contract has Bush at 67 and Kerry at 32. It’s a little like the "bond pros" who are short the 10 year treasury notes. They are having trouble reading the tea leaves and their positions are in the red.
Abebooks.com is the world’s largest online marketplace for books with over 60 million new, used, rare, and out-of-print books. Their textbook sales for the month of August were up 394% from the same time last year. The company attributes the strong sales to, among several contributing factors including, "financially strapped students are increasingly wary of expensive new editions and are turning to online booksellers for a wider selection and competitive pricing on new and used textbooks."
According to Bankrate.com’s weekly national survey of large lenders, the 15-year fixed rate mortgage fell this week to 5.16% from 5.23%.
The news can and will get worse. A total of 1,020 U.S. service members have been killed in Iraq. The report by Charles Duelfer, chief U.S. weapons inspector, will show that, after a year and a half in Iraq, no WMD have been found. U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan stated the U.S. invasion of Iraq was illegal because it violated the U.N. charter. The U.S. is part of the 15-member Security Council and Annan said that Council should have approved the invasion. After the election, more troops will be sent to Iraq. This is Bush’s Vietnam.
The news on the business front will get worse. An example is the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index that fell in September to 13.4 from 28.5 in August. The future general activity index fell to 44.9 from 52.7. Meanwhile, our country’s debt continues to grow. U.S. second quarter non-financial debt grew at a 7.7% annual rate, close to triple the rate of growth of our GDP. U.S. second quarter debt grew at a 9.5% annual rate. The Federal debt increased at a 10.7% rate, down slightly from the 12% rate in the first quarter. There is no legitimate excuse for the Federal debt to rise at this rate. At the same time, according to the BLS, adjusted for the 0.1% increase in the CPI, real average weekly earnings increased by 0.2% from July to August. Average weekly hours were unchanged. The core CPI (excl. food and energy) is up 1.8% from one year ago, below the average of 2.3% over the past 10 years. The Fed, however, wants to raise interest rates again. If they raise the Fed Funds to 1.75 percent that will roughly equate to the core CPI rate of increase for the past 12 months. With GDP growth slowing, there is no reason to raise rates any more than that. If you doubt that growth is slowing, just look at the yield on 10 year treasury notes at 4.07%, the same level seen in February 2004.
If business were buoyant, there would not be as many plant closures and mass layoffs. United Airlines has about 62,000 employees, down from more than 100,000 three years ago. The CEO mentioned that additional significant job cuts can be expected, and there is speculation of changes in their Denver hub. The Maytag Galesburg, Ill. Plant closed its doors this week, and 900 jobs were lost- to Mexico. Maytag stated they would also layoff up to 170 workers at its washer and dryer plant in Newton, Iowa this month. The layoffs are due to lower demand for certain products at the Newton plant.
Jobless claims rose 16,000 in the week ending Sept. 16.
Nortel, North America’s largest maker of telecom equipment, stated that it expects to report lower third quarter revenues compared to the second quarter.
In June, international investors purchased a net $40.6 billion in U.S. gov’t debt. In July, that figure declined to $22.4 billion.
According to the CFSB Tremont hedge fund index, the average return for August was 0.1%, and a large percentage show losses year to date.
Households with over $100,000 in yearly income represent 22% of aggregate income in the U.S. compared with 18% only 10 years ago.
David O’Reilly, Chmn. & CEO of ChevronTexaco: "I think there is the potential for an underlying shift in value of the oil price. It is possible we are at the same place as we were in the late 1970s, although I don’t want to say that in absolute terms. There is a lack of spare capacity out there."
Fed Governor Edward Gramlich stated it is "virtually inevitable" that oil price shocks will result in some combination of higher inflation and higher unemployment for a time. However, he went on to say, that "our worst possible outcome is for monetary policy makers to let inflation come loose from its moorings." In actuality, it is the Fed that started the inflation ball rolling, such as, in housing, by printing money at double digit rates and keeping Fed Funds at artificially low levels. The "natural rate" for the Fed is a level where their screws do come loose from their moorings.
According to John S. Herold and Harrison Lovegrove & Co., last year oil companies spent about $30 billion on stock buybacks and $30 billion looking for new oil and gas fields.
In a new Harris poll, Kerry leads Bush 48% to 47%. The new Pew poll shows the candidates even. The Tradesports presidential contract has Bush at 67 and Kerry at 32. It’s a little like the "bond pros" who are short the 10 year treasury notes. They are having trouble reading the tea leaves and their positions are in the red.
Abebooks.com is the world’s largest online marketplace for books with over 60 million new, used, rare, and out-of-print books. Their textbook sales for the month of August were up 394% from the same time last year. The company attributes the strong sales to, among several contributing factors including, "financially strapped students are increasingly wary of expensive new editions and are turning to online booksellers for a wider selection and competitive pricing on new and used textbooks."
According to Bankrate.com’s weekly national survey of large lenders, the 15-year fixed rate mortgage fell this week to 5.16% from 5.23%.
Thursday, September 16, 2004
9/16/04 Storms
According to the latest Duke University CFO Outlook Survey, chief financial officers of U.S. corporations are markedly less optimistic about the domestic economy than they were three months ago, and they are concerned about consumer spending, health-care costs, and domestic terrorism. CFOs predict only 2.8% real GDP growth over the next 12 months. This forecast is considerably lower than the Fed’s expectations. When was the last time the Fed was right?
Regarding the Administration’s Medicare program, which went into law based on cost estimates that were $135 billion lower than those documented by Rick Foster, the chief Medicare actuary at the HHS, once the drug benefit begins in 2006, seniors will pay an additional premium that goes up every year.
According to the BLS, employer costs for employee compensation averaged $24.96 prt hour worked in June 2004. Wages and salaries averaged $17.70 and benefits amounted to $7.26. Costs for legally required benefits, including Social Security, Medicare, unemployment insurance, and workers’ compensation, averaged $2.03 per hour, representing the largest non-wage employer cost.
Kerr-McGee Chemical, a wholly-owned affiliate of Kerr-McGee Corp., is the world’s third-largest producer and marketer of titanium dioxide pigment, an inorganic whitener and opacifier for paints, plastics, paper, inks, and hundreds of consumer products. The company plans to shut down its titanium pigment sulfate production at its Savannah facility by the end of September and will cut 140 jobs.
According to a report by Genomic Society Consulting, an emerging services sector in India is poised to capture a new wave of offshore contracts from the U.S. pharmaceutical, biotech, and life sciences technology industries. They report "known worldwide for sophisticated IT services, and lately for a biotechnology boom that is moving from copycat drugs into R&D, India is well-positioned to merge the talent of these two industries into a service sector that meets the needs of the global drug discovery industry. Our research reveals that salaries for skilled professionals and PhDs in this sector are as much as 90% lower in India than the U.S., so cost savings can be significant."
Shanghai’s National Bureau of Statistics slashed its forecast for China’s full-year automobile production to 2.39 million units from 2.82 million and trimmed the annual growth rate to 18% from 40%. With output in July and August nearly flat, more than 30% of capacity stood idle as vehicle makers were forced to cut prices to try and get through stalled inventories, stated the NBS. China’s vehicle market is currently the world’s fourth largest. Xu Yunkai, an auto analyst with Guotai Junan Securities, stated "auto consumers are becoming more rational and are waiting for price cuts as they also focus more on brands and the service offered by the auto companies." The NBS also said carmakers were likely to try and consolidate their position in the market by steeper price reductions while reducing production. The market in China has been doing the heavy lifting for GM. The company won’t come close to making their numbers for 2005.
U.S. business inventories grew 0.9% in July while sales only increased 0.6%. Auto inventories, already bloated, increased 1.8%. Wall Street took the inventory rise as being bullish. Maybe that’s because they’ve not run a business. When inventory production outpaces sales for two consecutive months, that spells potential problems. Has Wall Street ever heard of just-in-time inventories? If not, Wal-Mart can explain it. Bloated inventories will create price reductions and production cutbacks. That’s the story in China’s auto market.
Sluggish sales in North America and Europe will cause Coca Cola to miss second half estimates by a wide margin.
The state of Washington lost 6,800 jobs in August and the unemployment rate rose to 6.2% from July’s 6%. In February 2004, the rate was also 6.2%. That’s six months without an improvement.
August factory capacity utilization was unchanged at 77.3%. There is plenty of slack in this economy.
H. Ross Perot: "If you see a snake, just kill it. Don’t appoint a committee on a snake."
H. Ross Perot: "If we did nit have such a thing as an airline industry today, we would probably create something the size of NASA to make one."
The API stated that crude inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels in the week ended Spt. 10 while the Energy Dept reported a 7.1 million barrel drop. Every day gas prices remain at high levels is another day of pressure on consumer cash flow.
After Associated Ban-Corp completes the acquisition of First Federal Capital, about 425 positions will be cut.
A Goldman Sachs survey indicated softening corporate spending on technology.
According to the Generic Pharmaceutical Assoc., generics represent 51% of the total prescriptions dispensed in the U.S., but represents less than 8% of all dollars spent on prescription drugs.
It may not be readily apparent, but we are facing a recession right in the face. The consumer has started the ball rolling. Exports into the U.S. are feeling the pinch.
William McChesney Martin: "The Fed’s mission is to take away the punch bowl just when the party gets going." That statement was made several decades ago. Today the punch bowl is on empty and the Fed’s grasp of the economy has long since been rinsed down the drain.
The National Intelligence Council (that's funny) provided a pessimistic assessment about the future security and stability of Iraq.
According to the latest Duke University CFO Outlook Survey, chief financial officers of U.S. corporations are markedly less optimistic about the domestic economy than they were three months ago, and they are concerned about consumer spending, health-care costs, and domestic terrorism. CFOs predict only 2.8% real GDP growth over the next 12 months. This forecast is considerably lower than the Fed’s expectations. When was the last time the Fed was right?
Regarding the Administration’s Medicare program, which went into law based on cost estimates that were $135 billion lower than those documented by Rick Foster, the chief Medicare actuary at the HHS, once the drug benefit begins in 2006, seniors will pay an additional premium that goes up every year.
According to the BLS, employer costs for employee compensation averaged $24.96 prt hour worked in June 2004. Wages and salaries averaged $17.70 and benefits amounted to $7.26. Costs for legally required benefits, including Social Security, Medicare, unemployment insurance, and workers’ compensation, averaged $2.03 per hour, representing the largest non-wage employer cost.
Kerr-McGee Chemical, a wholly-owned affiliate of Kerr-McGee Corp., is the world’s third-largest producer and marketer of titanium dioxide pigment, an inorganic whitener and opacifier for paints, plastics, paper, inks, and hundreds of consumer products. The company plans to shut down its titanium pigment sulfate production at its Savannah facility by the end of September and will cut 140 jobs.
According to a report by Genomic Society Consulting, an emerging services sector in India is poised to capture a new wave of offshore contracts from the U.S. pharmaceutical, biotech, and life sciences technology industries. They report "known worldwide for sophisticated IT services, and lately for a biotechnology boom that is moving from copycat drugs into R&D, India is well-positioned to merge the talent of these two industries into a service sector that meets the needs of the global drug discovery industry. Our research reveals that salaries for skilled professionals and PhDs in this sector are as much as 90% lower in India than the U.S., so cost savings can be significant."
Shanghai’s National Bureau of Statistics slashed its forecast for China’s full-year automobile production to 2.39 million units from 2.82 million and trimmed the annual growth rate to 18% from 40%. With output in July and August nearly flat, more than 30% of capacity stood idle as vehicle makers were forced to cut prices to try and get through stalled inventories, stated the NBS. China’s vehicle market is currently the world’s fourth largest. Xu Yunkai, an auto analyst with Guotai Junan Securities, stated "auto consumers are becoming more rational and are waiting for price cuts as they also focus more on brands and the service offered by the auto companies." The NBS also said carmakers were likely to try and consolidate their position in the market by steeper price reductions while reducing production. The market in China has been doing the heavy lifting for GM. The company won’t come close to making their numbers for 2005.
U.S. business inventories grew 0.9% in July while sales only increased 0.6%. Auto inventories, already bloated, increased 1.8%. Wall Street took the inventory rise as being bullish. Maybe that’s because they’ve not run a business. When inventory production outpaces sales for two consecutive months, that spells potential problems. Has Wall Street ever heard of just-in-time inventories? If not, Wal-Mart can explain it. Bloated inventories will create price reductions and production cutbacks. That’s the story in China’s auto market.
Sluggish sales in North America and Europe will cause Coca Cola to miss second half estimates by a wide margin.
The state of Washington lost 6,800 jobs in August and the unemployment rate rose to 6.2% from July’s 6%. In February 2004, the rate was also 6.2%. That’s six months without an improvement.
August factory capacity utilization was unchanged at 77.3%. There is plenty of slack in this economy.
H. Ross Perot: "If you see a snake, just kill it. Don’t appoint a committee on a snake."
H. Ross Perot: "If we did nit have such a thing as an airline industry today, we would probably create something the size of NASA to make one."
The API stated that crude inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels in the week ended Spt. 10 while the Energy Dept reported a 7.1 million barrel drop. Every day gas prices remain at high levels is another day of pressure on consumer cash flow.
After Associated Ban-Corp completes the acquisition of First Federal Capital, about 425 positions will be cut.
A Goldman Sachs survey indicated softening corporate spending on technology.
According to the Generic Pharmaceutical Assoc., generics represent 51% of the total prescriptions dispensed in the U.S., but represents less than 8% of all dollars spent on prescription drugs.
It may not be readily apparent, but we are facing a recession right in the face. The consumer has started the ball rolling. Exports into the U.S. are feeling the pinch.
William McChesney Martin: "The Fed’s mission is to take away the punch bowl just when the party gets going." That statement was made several decades ago. Today the punch bowl is on empty and the Fed’s grasp of the economy has long since been rinsed down the drain.
The National Intelligence Council (that's funny) provided a pessimistic assessment about the future security and stability of Iraq.
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