10/1/05 The Fourth Quarter
Many Wall Street pundits are wishing for a repeat of last year’s year-end rally, and many expect such a happening. Maybe that will be the case. I prefer to focus on more sure things. When you walk into stores, you will notice the holiday merchandise is beginning to fill the shelves. You also know that $3 a gallon gas is crimping your spending ability. Therefore, two things will happen. More time will be spent shopping online. Secondly, the purchase of gift cards will increase. For example, you can buy a gift card for an entire mall. What companies will benefit the most? Amazon, Wal-Mart.com, and Target.com.
PGE sent out a notice to its customers in San Francisco that heating bills could be 80% higher than last winter. Don’t sound so shocked. The price of natural gas in the third quarter rose by 80%. It means more shopping for blankets, sweaters, sweat pants and sweat shirts, and flannel sheets, flannel nightgowns, and flannel pajamas. Wal-Mart’s prices are the lowest on these items.
If folks conserve and drive less after work, then more time will be spent at home- - not just watching TV, but also listening to music and reading. Amazon will benefit the most.
As we get into the end of the fourth quarter, people will think about their April 2006 tax bill. I have been writing about the alternative minimum tax for years. As a reminder, 2 million Americans were hit by the AMT in 2002, 4 million in 2004, and 20 million will be impacted in 2006. This tax is a cancer. The combination of $3 gas, 80% higher natural gas for heating, the AMT, little or no wage growth after inflation, and higher interest rates- - - these five nails will puncture the air out of consumer spending. You can bank on it. These five nails are a lot more certain than a year-end rally. Hope springs eternal, or saying it more eloquently, if the queen had cajones she’d be king.
In the third quarter that just ended, the focal points were clearly Katrina and Rita. After that, it was the 80% increase in the price of natural gas, gasoline rising 44%, and crude up 13%. By comparison, the Dow rose 2.9%, the S&P 3.1%, and the Nasdaq 4.5%. Gold held its own as it rose 6.4%. Unfortunately, for those who think treasury bonds are a safe investment, that sector declined 0.9% in the third quarter.
"One could argue strongly that a key element driving inflation is indeed energy," says Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which produces a leading inflation indicator that includes energy prices. "I don't know what you accomplish by removing energy from the discussion -- it's 'core' to the discussion."
August personal incomes declined 0.1%, while consumer spending dropped 0.5%, the biggest decline in 4 years. Meanwhile, the personal savings rate was -0.7% in August. You can’t save what you don’t have. Looking at it from another perspective, adjusted for inflation, consumer spending dropped 1% in August. The last time that happened was in September 2001. Not surprisingly, due to the hurricanes, the University of Michigan sentiment index plunged to 76.9 in September from 89.1 in August.
The bulls had something on their plate. The Chicago PMI for September rebounded nicely to 60.5% from 49.2% in August. Unfortunately, the cheering was short-lived with the prices paid sector climbing to 76.3% from 62.9% in August. Inflation is alive and well. Of course, you already knew that from the price of gold near an 18-year high.
The Big Picture: "Investors should be aware that Risk levels are on the rise."
Omnicare will reduce its workforce by 730 employees.
Albertsons continues to close under-performing stores and announced it will close the doors of at least three Colorado grocery stores on November 1, cutting 200 jobs. According to The Shelby Report, Albertsons has 52 stores in Colorado and ranks fourth in market share in that state behind King Soopers, Safeway, and Wal-Mart Supercenters.
According to timesonline.co.uk, Kazakhstan’s proven reserves stand at 26 million barrels of oil and 1.8 trillion meters of gas. The Kazakh government aims to raise oil production to 3 million barrels per day by 2015, making it one of the world’s top ten producers.
Reynaldo Rios, an elementary school teacher in Lajas, Puerto Rico, with permission, installed a sign on Francisco Negron's property that reads "Extraterrestial Route." "I can't say exactly when they will come, but I know it will happen," Rios said. "I want to keep believing in my dreams."
Albert Einstein: ""How I wish that somewhere there existed an island for those who are wise and of good will."
Saturday, October 01, 2005
Friday, September 30, 2005
Resiliency, Complacency, Window Dressing, Or Street Magic?
9/30/05 Resiliency, Complacency, Window Dressing, Or Street Magic?
Itay Slonim: “In 2003 and 2004, world central banks (mainly in Asia) printed roughly $1.2 trillion, which has increased the global money base by over 60%[1]. In 2005, the annual rate of printing is roughly $500 billion. This is the greatest quantity of money printed in history (other than in wartime).”
The total notional value outstanding of credit derivatives rose to $12.4 trillion in June, up 48% from January and up 128% from a year earlier, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. However, many of these trades have not been confirmed because of a processing backlog. Our GDP is less than the notional value of derivatives outstanding, and yet, many of the derivative trades have not been confirmed due to back office overload. The potential fallout from this backlog could clearly dim complacency.
The S&P has been up for six straight days. Today is the last day of the quarter and the last day of September. It is quite probable that the Dow will end on the plus side for September, and that has not been the case in recent years.
Heading into its final day, the Dow industrials have climbed 2.7 percent, the Nasdaq is up 4.1 percent and the S&P is up 3.1 percent during the third quarter.
Is the Fed raising interest rates in an effort to fight inflation or rather to attract foreign capital to cover our twin tower deficits as well as bolstering the dollar? Would the money supply be increasing faster than the stated inflation rate if the Fed’s primary concern were fighting inflation? Does the price of gold at $475+ an ounce indicate the Fed is trying to monetize the country’s $8 trillion debt?
The Conference Board’s help-wanted index in August fell to 35 from 39 in July. One year ago it was 37. Only 20% of the labor markets had rising want-ad volume compared with 47% one year ago. Online job ads rose 4% from June 2005.
Jesse Ventura: “When the government lies to the American people, they start a war. When the American people lie to the government, they go to jail.”
Recently, our country has experienced Katrina, Rita, rising interest rates, a flattening yield curve, a huge decline in consumer confidence, a 9.9% decline in new home sales, record natural gas prices, $3 gas at the pump, consumer pocketbooks getting pinched from rising costs, a rising death toll in Iraq, the lowest support for the Iraq war, the lowest support for Bush, and yet, the stock and bond markets are resilient and investors appear quite complacent. Yesterday and today’s results will be masked by end of the quarter window dressing.
"We were able to make progress, particularly with product coverage and quota levels, but we did not reach an agreement with the Chinese, "lead U.S. textile negotiator David Spooner said in a statement announcing that the talks ended Wednesday night.
"We will be meeting with the Chinese again next month and will be consulting with them soon on the location and exact date of the next round of negotiations," Spooner said.
According to insiders, the differences mainly focus on the duration of the pact, the base figure for determining exports and the growth rate.
The United States wants to calculate annual growth based on the 2004 figure but China would not accept the proposal because textile trade that year was skewed under a regime of international quotas, said Zhou Shjian, an expert on WTO issues.
Here’s a little street magic for you. It’s not David Blaine but still pretty good. The government reported that GDP rose 3.3% in this year’s second quarter. Are you sure that is a real number? If the government measures GDP by actual output rather than price increases, how accurate is the 3.3%? If the Fed is fighting inflation, then why not measure GDP with price increases too? It’s just a shell game.
NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado stated that the Arctic ice which floats at the North Pole melted to its smallest size - ever! - in records going back for at least a century. In fact, this summer ships could travel through both the North East and North West passages. Unlike the bond and stock markets, Mother Nature reflects reality and does not get complacent. There is no street magic at the North Pole.
OAO Lukoil, Russia's biggest oil company, offered to pay $2 billion to buy Nelson Resources Ltd. to expand in Kazakhstan. The price is a 15% discount from yesterday’s closing price for Nelson, and Dmitry Lukashov from Aton Capital brokerage stated the price is “37% below our fair value, and the reasons for this discount are not clear. We will recommend to those of our clients, who are shareholders in Nelson, to vote against this deal.” Nelson stated its net proven and probable reserves are around 270 million barrels.
The Deal.com reported that the interest in Albertson’s is moving toward the due diligence process, and that three bidding groups have been formed: KKR, Apollo, and Texas Pacific; Thomas H. Lee, Bain, and Yucaipa; and Cerebus and Kimco Realty. They stated the KKR and Lee groups have lined up financing while Cerberus would need to find outside financing. I don’t believe Cerberus would have difficulty in doing so.
Congress dealt a deadly blow to the protections provided by the Endangered Species Act by passing Congressman Pombo's bill weakening this important conservation law.
This bill:
* replaces the current mandatory critical habitat system with a system of
purported recovery plans that are discretionary and fail to protect
habitat essential for recovery;
* allows federal agencies to avoid consultation, resulting in agencies
with little to no experience in wildlife issues deciding if projects
will harm wildlife;
* exempts all pesticide decisions from ESA compliance, taking away the
ability under the ESA to stop pesticide use. even when necessary to
prevent extinction;
* requires the federal government to use taxpayer dollars to pay
developers for complying with the law, setting no limits on these
payments.
Mom, I'll light a birthday candle for you.
Itay Slonim: “In 2003 and 2004, world central banks (mainly in Asia) printed roughly $1.2 trillion, which has increased the global money base by over 60%[1]. In 2005, the annual rate of printing is roughly $500 billion. This is the greatest quantity of money printed in history (other than in wartime).”
The total notional value outstanding of credit derivatives rose to $12.4 trillion in June, up 48% from January and up 128% from a year earlier, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. However, many of these trades have not been confirmed because of a processing backlog. Our GDP is less than the notional value of derivatives outstanding, and yet, many of the derivative trades have not been confirmed due to back office overload. The potential fallout from this backlog could clearly dim complacency.
The S&P has been up for six straight days. Today is the last day of the quarter and the last day of September. It is quite probable that the Dow will end on the plus side for September, and that has not been the case in recent years.
Heading into its final day, the Dow industrials have climbed 2.7 percent, the Nasdaq is up 4.1 percent and the S&P is up 3.1 percent during the third quarter.
Is the Fed raising interest rates in an effort to fight inflation or rather to attract foreign capital to cover our twin tower deficits as well as bolstering the dollar? Would the money supply be increasing faster than the stated inflation rate if the Fed’s primary concern were fighting inflation? Does the price of gold at $475+ an ounce indicate the Fed is trying to monetize the country’s $8 trillion debt?
The Conference Board’s help-wanted index in August fell to 35 from 39 in July. One year ago it was 37. Only 20% of the labor markets had rising want-ad volume compared with 47% one year ago. Online job ads rose 4% from June 2005.
Jesse Ventura: “When the government lies to the American people, they start a war. When the American people lie to the government, they go to jail.”
Recently, our country has experienced Katrina, Rita, rising interest rates, a flattening yield curve, a huge decline in consumer confidence, a 9.9% decline in new home sales, record natural gas prices, $3 gas at the pump, consumer pocketbooks getting pinched from rising costs, a rising death toll in Iraq, the lowest support for the Iraq war, the lowest support for Bush, and yet, the stock and bond markets are resilient and investors appear quite complacent. Yesterday and today’s results will be masked by end of the quarter window dressing.
"We were able to make progress, particularly with product coverage and quota levels, but we did not reach an agreement with the Chinese, "lead U.S. textile negotiator David Spooner said in a statement announcing that the talks ended Wednesday night.
"We will be meeting with the Chinese again next month and will be consulting with them soon on the location and exact date of the next round of negotiations," Spooner said.
According to insiders, the differences mainly focus on the duration of the pact, the base figure for determining exports and the growth rate.
The United States wants to calculate annual growth based on the 2004 figure but China would not accept the proposal because textile trade that year was skewed under a regime of international quotas, said Zhou Shjian, an expert on WTO issues.
Here’s a little street magic for you. It’s not David Blaine but still pretty good. The government reported that GDP rose 3.3% in this year’s second quarter. Are you sure that is a real number? If the government measures GDP by actual output rather than price increases, how accurate is the 3.3%? If the Fed is fighting inflation, then why not measure GDP with price increases too? It’s just a shell game.
NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado stated that the Arctic ice which floats at the North Pole melted to its smallest size - ever! - in records going back for at least a century. In fact, this summer ships could travel through both the North East and North West passages. Unlike the bond and stock markets, Mother Nature reflects reality and does not get complacent. There is no street magic at the North Pole.
OAO Lukoil, Russia's biggest oil company, offered to pay $2 billion to buy Nelson Resources Ltd. to expand in Kazakhstan. The price is a 15% discount from yesterday’s closing price for Nelson, and Dmitry Lukashov from Aton Capital brokerage stated the price is “37% below our fair value, and the reasons for this discount are not clear. We will recommend to those of our clients, who are shareholders in Nelson, to vote against this deal.” Nelson stated its net proven and probable reserves are around 270 million barrels.
The Deal.com reported that the interest in Albertson’s is moving toward the due diligence process, and that three bidding groups have been formed: KKR, Apollo, and Texas Pacific; Thomas H. Lee, Bain, and Yucaipa; and Cerebus and Kimco Realty. They stated the KKR and Lee groups have lined up financing while Cerberus would need to find outside financing. I don’t believe Cerberus would have difficulty in doing so.
Congress dealt a deadly blow to the protections provided by the Endangered Species Act by passing Congressman Pombo's bill weakening this important conservation law.
This bill:
* replaces the current mandatory critical habitat system with a system of
purported recovery plans that are discretionary and fail to protect
habitat essential for recovery;
* allows federal agencies to avoid consultation, resulting in agencies
with little to no experience in wildlife issues deciding if projects
will harm wildlife;
* exempts all pesticide decisions from ESA compliance, taking away the
ability under the ESA to stop pesticide use. even when necessary to
prevent extinction;
* requires the federal government to use taxpayer dollars to pay
developers for complying with the law, setting no limits on these
payments.
Mom, I'll light a birthday candle for you.
Thursday, September 29, 2005
Street Magic
9/29/05 Street Magic
Before I get to this morning’s chief topic, I’d like to cover a few points.
The International Energy Agency says China relies on overseas producers for just about one-third of supplies but accounts for about 7% of world oil demand. In contrast, India, despite importing 70% of its oil needs, consumes a little more than 2 million barrels (3% of world oil demand) a day - compared to China's 6.75 million barrels a day. According to the China National Center for Biotechnology Development, China’s reserves of biomass fuel are estimated to equal 7 times the projected crude oil output capacity of Daqing, China’s major oil field. The director of the Center stated China now has a practical technique for converting aged grains, sorghum, sugarcane, and sweet potato into diesel oil. With oil above $45 per barrel, he stated it was economically feasible to mass-produce biomass fuels without government subsidies
Renewable sources account for 25 percent of Sweden's energy use and 45 percent in Norway. The United States lagged behind, with only 4.2 percent of its energy consumption coming from renewable sources.
In Mumbai, the BSE Sensex closed above 8600 for the first time Buying in ONGC helped to lift the index. The interest in ONGC was attributed to a Bloomberg article stating that ONGC may counter China’s plan to buy PetroKazakhstan. It should be noted that the energy combine of ONGC and Mittal becomes effective in October.
Sanyo stated it would cut 10,000 workers and DaimlerChrysler 8,500 Mercedes employees. Independence Air will cut 600 jobs.
Now to street magic. My favorite magician is David Blaine. He is an extraordinary talent. Having watched him for years, I have yet to figure out how he accomplishes any of his tricks. He makes it look both easy and yet impossible to achieve. Why do I bring up David Blaine and his street magic? In my view, there is street magic being performed every day in the equity markets on Wall Street and the debt markets around the globe. At the center stage is the thought that Americans want to believe. They do not want to be doubters and have their lives interrupted by the likes of Abramoff, DeLay, Rove, and others. Everyone wants to have a nice day and a nice life. So where’s the magic?
The magic is in the false sense of well being. The table is set by government employees proclaiming that everything is okay and not to worry. All bumps in the road are temporary. The ABA reported yesterday that the percentage of credit card accounts 30 or more days past due climbed to an all-time high of 4.81% in the April-June period. I predict it will be higher in the July-Sept. quarter. Jim Chessen, the ABA’s chief economist, stated “the last two quarters have not been pretty. The rise in gas prices is really stretching budgets to the breaking point for some people. Gas prices are taking huge chunks out of wallets, leaving some individuals with little left to meet their financial obligations.”
The problem is that ONLY 69% of Americans own their homes. That 69% can have an equity line of credit using their homes as collateral. If the rise in their income falls below inflation, they simply take money from the equity line of credit to pay for gas, heating bills, and other expenses. There are no worries because the value of the home keeps rising. Of course, the debt levels against the home keep rising too. This ATM crowd should not worry though. Greenspan stated most homeowners are in good shape financially. We know that he pays your bills and you can always borrow more money at increasing rates of interest.
Speaking of increasing rates of interest, there is street magic. We have an $8 trillion national debt (excluding Medicare and Medicaid and other goodies), and that debt is climbing to where in a few years it will equal our GDP. It might exceed our GNP sooner, but we did away with GNP--- magically. Can you imagine twin tower debts amounting to $1.2 trillion this year and 10-year Treasury bond yields not rising? That is not a conundrum. It is street magic.
Isn’t it interesting that the sale of existing homes remains near record levels but sales of new homes are starting to fall off a cliff? What’s wrong with new homes? There are too many of them. This is similar to having too many GM and Ford vehicles. They left the door at a rapid rate with employee discount sales. Maybe home builders will need to provide prospective buyers with the employee discount. The housing market is beginning to run out of steam. The MBA stated its index of total mortgage applications for home purchase and refinancing loans fell 6.6% in the week ended Sept. 23. The volume of refinancing and purchase loans declined – the first time both sectors fell simultaneously in a month, according to MBA figures. I feel confident that Fed members can blame it on Katrina and Rita. Those storms would not explain the drop in demand for ARMs and refinancings. Americans are not saving through their earnings from work. Expenses are rising. Bills need to be paid. Mouths need to be fed. You can’t eat perceptions.
Street magic can carry you just so far.
Do you think gold would have rallied $200 an ounce over the last few years without inflation fears burning brightly and the purchasing power of the dollar declining? How can inflation be muted if the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has risen over 45% this year? How can it be muted and under control when natural gas prices reached record high levels and gas at the pump approaches $3 a gallon? There won’t be any street magic to help you pay winter heating bills. I suggest you go to Wal-Mart and buy some blankets and sweaters. Was that Cramer recommending the purchase of Wal-Mart last evening?
Tom Robbins: “Disbelief in magic can force a poor soul into believing in government and business."
Before I get to this morning’s chief topic, I’d like to cover a few points.
The International Energy Agency says China relies on overseas producers for just about one-third of supplies but accounts for about 7% of world oil demand. In contrast, India, despite importing 70% of its oil needs, consumes a little more than 2 million barrels (3% of world oil demand) a day - compared to China's 6.75 million barrels a day. According to the China National Center for Biotechnology Development, China’s reserves of biomass fuel are estimated to equal 7 times the projected crude oil output capacity of Daqing, China’s major oil field. The director of the Center stated China now has a practical technique for converting aged grains, sorghum, sugarcane, and sweet potato into diesel oil. With oil above $45 per barrel, he stated it was economically feasible to mass-produce biomass fuels without government subsidies
Renewable sources account for 25 percent of Sweden's energy use and 45 percent in Norway. The United States lagged behind, with only 4.2 percent of its energy consumption coming from renewable sources.
In Mumbai, the BSE Sensex closed above 8600 for the first time Buying in ONGC helped to lift the index. The interest in ONGC was attributed to a Bloomberg article stating that ONGC may counter China’s plan to buy PetroKazakhstan. It should be noted that the energy combine of ONGC and Mittal becomes effective in October.
Sanyo stated it would cut 10,000 workers and DaimlerChrysler 8,500 Mercedes employees. Independence Air will cut 600 jobs.
Now to street magic. My favorite magician is David Blaine. He is an extraordinary talent. Having watched him for years, I have yet to figure out how he accomplishes any of his tricks. He makes it look both easy and yet impossible to achieve. Why do I bring up David Blaine and his street magic? In my view, there is street magic being performed every day in the equity markets on Wall Street and the debt markets around the globe. At the center stage is the thought that Americans want to believe. They do not want to be doubters and have their lives interrupted by the likes of Abramoff, DeLay, Rove, and others. Everyone wants to have a nice day and a nice life. So where’s the magic?
The magic is in the false sense of well being. The table is set by government employees proclaiming that everything is okay and not to worry. All bumps in the road are temporary. The ABA reported yesterday that the percentage of credit card accounts 30 or more days past due climbed to an all-time high of 4.81% in the April-June period. I predict it will be higher in the July-Sept. quarter. Jim Chessen, the ABA’s chief economist, stated “the last two quarters have not been pretty. The rise in gas prices is really stretching budgets to the breaking point for some people. Gas prices are taking huge chunks out of wallets, leaving some individuals with little left to meet their financial obligations.”
The problem is that ONLY 69% of Americans own their homes. That 69% can have an equity line of credit using their homes as collateral. If the rise in their income falls below inflation, they simply take money from the equity line of credit to pay for gas, heating bills, and other expenses. There are no worries because the value of the home keeps rising. Of course, the debt levels against the home keep rising too. This ATM crowd should not worry though. Greenspan stated most homeowners are in good shape financially. We know that he pays your bills and you can always borrow more money at increasing rates of interest.
Speaking of increasing rates of interest, there is street magic. We have an $8 trillion national debt (excluding Medicare and Medicaid and other goodies), and that debt is climbing to where in a few years it will equal our GDP. It might exceed our GNP sooner, but we did away with GNP--- magically. Can you imagine twin tower debts amounting to $1.2 trillion this year and 10-year Treasury bond yields not rising? That is not a conundrum. It is street magic.
Isn’t it interesting that the sale of existing homes remains near record levels but sales of new homes are starting to fall off a cliff? What’s wrong with new homes? There are too many of them. This is similar to having too many GM and Ford vehicles. They left the door at a rapid rate with employee discount sales. Maybe home builders will need to provide prospective buyers with the employee discount. The housing market is beginning to run out of steam. The MBA stated its index of total mortgage applications for home purchase and refinancing loans fell 6.6% in the week ended Sept. 23. The volume of refinancing and purchase loans declined – the first time both sectors fell simultaneously in a month, according to MBA figures. I feel confident that Fed members can blame it on Katrina and Rita. Those storms would not explain the drop in demand for ARMs and refinancings. Americans are not saving through their earnings from work. Expenses are rising. Bills need to be paid. Mouths need to be fed. You can’t eat perceptions.
Street magic can carry you just so far.
Do you think gold would have rallied $200 an ounce over the last few years without inflation fears burning brightly and the purchasing power of the dollar declining? How can inflation be muted if the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has risen over 45% this year? How can it be muted and under control when natural gas prices reached record high levels and gas at the pump approaches $3 a gallon? There won’t be any street magic to help you pay winter heating bills. I suggest you go to Wal-Mart and buy some blankets and sweaters. Was that Cramer recommending the purchase of Wal-Mart last evening?
Tom Robbins: “Disbelief in magic can force a poor soul into believing in government and business."
Wednesday, September 28, 2005
Exuberance
9/28/05 Exuberance
Greenspan: "History cautions that extended periods of low concern about credit risk have invariably been followed by reversal, with an attendant fall in the prices of risky assets. Because it is difficult to suppress growing market exuberance when the economic environment is perceived as more stable, a highly flexible system needs to be in place to rebalance an economy in which psychology and asset prices could change rapidly."
Montecito Property Company made sales history this past weekend September 24-25, 2005 when the fastest growing property development company in America sold almost 90 percent of its
homes at the grand opening of LaVista at Laguna Niguel. The community of 280 units is the first California condo conversion in a series, planned by the Jacksonville, Florida-based developer.
More than 1,000 potential homeowners converged at the new home community
when the doors opened Saturday morning. "With the median price of a home in Orange County topping out in July,2005 at $706,820 as reported this past week in the Los Angeles Times, Montecito's enclave of luxury condo conversions is a great value for the money," says President Edward "Chip" Conk of Montecito Property Company, LLC. Added Conk, "We were not at all surprised by the overwhelming response and interest in LaVista at Laguna Niguel because of its spectacular location only
three miles from the Pacific Ocean.
Delphi Corp. acknowledged today that it continues to be in discussions with its major unions and General Motors Corp. concerning a comprehensive restructuring designed to address Delphi's existing U.S. legacy liabilities and the resulting high-cost structure of its U.S. operations going forward.
Robert S. "Steve" Miller, Delphi's chairman and CEO, said, "While I'm pleased that we continue to be in discussions on a consensual restructuring, as everyone is aware we have been working on this for quite some time and our board is committed to achieving a successful restructuring of Delphi, one way
or another."
Bush urges Americans to drive less and to van pool. I guess that’s the Administration’s energy policy.
Ann Sexton: "Put your ear down close to your soul and listen hard."
Iran threatened to resume uranium conversion, block inspections of its nuclear sites, and cut trade with countries who backed an IAEA resolution that calls for its referral to the UN Security Council, the Associated Press news agency reported.
Norman Cousins: "Wisdom consists of the anticipation of the consequeces."
China has invited India to take part in its offshore and deep water exploration blocks. During their discussion at the 18th World Petroleum Congress, the two countries also agreed to move together for bidding in third countries. The Indian delegation to the World Petroleum Congress, led by secretary petroleum SC Tripathi, held a series of discussions with Chinese representatives on cooperation in the exploration and production side. The Chinese side has invited India to forge a strategic partnership and wants petroleum sector to be a part of it. The head of the Chinese delegation, Wang Tao, a former minister and now senior vice-president of World Petroleum Congress, said his country attached importance to cooperation with India since both the countries have made tremendous impact with their increasing demand. The China National Petroleum Company in its presentation to the Indian delegation stressed on holding dialogues in advance and not at the last moment when a bid is to be submitted. It said though some competition would continue to happen, there should be an attempt for partnership so that competition could be reduced. The other Chinese companies represented included Sinopec, Sinochem and China National Offshore Oil Company.
Light, sweet crude for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 14 cents to $64.93 a barrel. Heating oil was down nearly 2 cents at $2.0510 a gallon, while gasoline was trading at $2.1615 a gallon, down half a cent.
Nouriel Roubini:” And yes oil will go above $100 per barrel in the next three years. Why? Because of the basic laws of demand and supply. Global demand for oil is growing at about 2.1% per year or about 2 mmb/d (million barrels a day) per year. So, new net supply has to increase by as much just to maintain prices at current high levels. But since existing production fields get depleted at the rate of over 4 mmb/d per year, new production from new oil fields has to be at least 6 mmb/d per year just to ensure that the additional net demand is satisfied.”
There are Fed members worrying about inflation and providing indications for future rate hikes. This sentiment is counterbalanced by the economic fallout from Katrina and Rita and the rapid deterioration in consumer confidence. So far this year, the 10-year Treasury bonds have ranged from a yield of 3.90% to 4.45%. Presently, the yield is 4.31%. Once again, Greenspan stated that investors should not be lulled into a false sense of security just because interest rates have remained low for such a long stretch of time. On the other hand, he noted it is “difficult to suppress growing market exuberance when the economic environment is perceived as more stable.” How stable is the environment when August new home sales decline 9.9% and the supply of homes reaches a record high at 4.7 months? How stable is the consumer-dependent economy when the U.S. September Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has its biggest decline in 15 years to 86.6 from August’s 105.5? Possibly more telling was the sharp decline in the expectations index to 71.7 from 93.3. Especially troubling was the finding that 25% of respondents expect fewer jobs in coming months, down sharply from 17.3% one month earlier.
Sidonie-Gabrielle Colette: "Look for a long time at what pleases you, and for a longer time at what pains you."
Yesterday, on the NYSE, there were 86 new highs and 108 new lows.
In a recent CNN survey, 63% were in favor of a strategy to leave Iraq. One year ago it was 38%.
Google Inc. is expected to announce plans today to build a 1million-square-foot campus at NASA Ames Research Center in Mountain View, California.
The U.K. economy expanded at the slowest annual pace in more than 12 years in the second quarter, reinforcing expectations Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown will have to scale back plans to increase spending. Europe's second-largest economy grew 1.5 percent from a year earlier instead of the 1.8 percent estimated on Aug. 26, the Office for National Statistics said in London today.
At least 5,000 workers with the Mercedes Car Group faced the prospect Wednesday that their jobs could be cut as the flagship brand of DaimlerChrysler AG struggles to cut costs.
Those affected by Hurricane Rita have until November 30 to file for Disaster Unemployment Assistance, the Louisiana Department of Labor announced today.
Greenspan: "History cautions that extended periods of low concern about credit risk have invariably been followed by reversal, with an attendant fall in the prices of risky assets. Because it is difficult to suppress growing market exuberance when the economic environment is perceived as more stable, a highly flexible system needs to be in place to rebalance an economy in which psychology and asset prices could change rapidly."
Montecito Property Company made sales history this past weekend September 24-25, 2005 when the fastest growing property development company in America sold almost 90 percent of its
homes at the grand opening of LaVista at Laguna Niguel. The community of 280 units is the first California condo conversion in a series, planned by the Jacksonville, Florida-based developer.
More than 1,000 potential homeowners converged at the new home community
when the doors opened Saturday morning. "With the median price of a home in Orange County topping out in July,2005 at $706,820 as reported this past week in the Los Angeles Times, Montecito's enclave of luxury condo conversions is a great value for the money," says President Edward "Chip" Conk of Montecito Property Company, LLC. Added Conk, "We were not at all surprised by the overwhelming response and interest in LaVista at Laguna Niguel because of its spectacular location only
three miles from the Pacific Ocean.
Delphi Corp. acknowledged today that it continues to be in discussions with its major unions and General Motors Corp. concerning a comprehensive restructuring designed to address Delphi's existing U.S. legacy liabilities and the resulting high-cost structure of its U.S. operations going forward.
Robert S. "Steve" Miller, Delphi's chairman and CEO, said, "While I'm pleased that we continue to be in discussions on a consensual restructuring, as everyone is aware we have been working on this for quite some time and our board is committed to achieving a successful restructuring of Delphi, one way
or another."
Bush urges Americans to drive less and to van pool. I guess that’s the Administration’s energy policy.
Ann Sexton: "Put your ear down close to your soul and listen hard."
Iran threatened to resume uranium conversion, block inspections of its nuclear sites, and cut trade with countries who backed an IAEA resolution that calls for its referral to the UN Security Council, the Associated Press news agency reported.
Norman Cousins: "Wisdom consists of the anticipation of the consequeces."
China has invited India to take part in its offshore and deep water exploration blocks. During their discussion at the 18th World Petroleum Congress, the two countries also agreed to move together for bidding in third countries. The Indian delegation to the World Petroleum Congress, led by secretary petroleum SC Tripathi, held a series of discussions with Chinese representatives on cooperation in the exploration and production side. The Chinese side has invited India to forge a strategic partnership and wants petroleum sector to be a part of it. The head of the Chinese delegation, Wang Tao, a former minister and now senior vice-president of World Petroleum Congress, said his country attached importance to cooperation with India since both the countries have made tremendous impact with their increasing demand. The China National Petroleum Company in its presentation to the Indian delegation stressed on holding dialogues in advance and not at the last moment when a bid is to be submitted. It said though some competition would continue to happen, there should be an attempt for partnership so that competition could be reduced. The other Chinese companies represented included Sinopec, Sinochem and China National Offshore Oil Company.
Light, sweet crude for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 14 cents to $64.93 a barrel. Heating oil was down nearly 2 cents at $2.0510 a gallon, while gasoline was trading at $2.1615 a gallon, down half a cent.
Nouriel Roubini:” And yes oil will go above $100 per barrel in the next three years. Why? Because of the basic laws of demand and supply. Global demand for oil is growing at about 2.1% per year or about 2 mmb/d (million barrels a day) per year. So, new net supply has to increase by as much just to maintain prices at current high levels. But since existing production fields get depleted at the rate of over 4 mmb/d per year, new production from new oil fields has to be at least 6 mmb/d per year just to ensure that the additional net demand is satisfied.”
There are Fed members worrying about inflation and providing indications for future rate hikes. This sentiment is counterbalanced by the economic fallout from Katrina and Rita and the rapid deterioration in consumer confidence. So far this year, the 10-year Treasury bonds have ranged from a yield of 3.90% to 4.45%. Presently, the yield is 4.31%. Once again, Greenspan stated that investors should not be lulled into a false sense of security just because interest rates have remained low for such a long stretch of time. On the other hand, he noted it is “difficult to suppress growing market exuberance when the economic environment is perceived as more stable.” How stable is the environment when August new home sales decline 9.9% and the supply of homes reaches a record high at 4.7 months? How stable is the consumer-dependent economy when the U.S. September Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has its biggest decline in 15 years to 86.6 from August’s 105.5? Possibly more telling was the sharp decline in the expectations index to 71.7 from 93.3. Especially troubling was the finding that 25% of respondents expect fewer jobs in coming months, down sharply from 17.3% one month earlier.
Sidonie-Gabrielle Colette: "Look for a long time at what pleases you, and for a longer time at what pains you."
Yesterday, on the NYSE, there were 86 new highs and 108 new lows.
In a recent CNN survey, 63% were in favor of a strategy to leave Iraq. One year ago it was 38%.
Google Inc. is expected to announce plans today to build a 1million-square-foot campus at NASA Ames Research Center in Mountain View, California.
The U.K. economy expanded at the slowest annual pace in more than 12 years in the second quarter, reinforcing expectations Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown will have to scale back plans to increase spending. Europe's second-largest economy grew 1.5 percent from a year earlier instead of the 1.8 percent estimated on Aug. 26, the Office for National Statistics said in London today.
At least 5,000 workers with the Mercedes Car Group faced the prospect Wednesday that their jobs could be cut as the flagship brand of DaimlerChrysler AG struggles to cut costs.
Those affected by Hurricane Rita have until November 30 to file for Disaster Unemployment Assistance, the Louisiana Department of Labor announced today.
Tuesday, September 27, 2005
Surprise
9/27/05 Surprise
Finally, at last, Greenspan stated consumers have become enormously dependent on borrowing against their homes to fuel their spending, and that a rise in mortgage rates could trigger a spending pullback. However, he observed that homeowners are not overly in debt. "The vast majority of homeowners have a sizable equity cushion with which to absorb a potential decline in house prices," he said. Meanwhile, existing-home sales climbed 2% in August, and the median price of a home increased close to 16% over the past 12 months.
Congress already has given the president about $350 billion for combat and reconstruction in Iraq and Afghanistan and fighting terrorism worldwide since the Sept. 11 attacks, according to the Congressional Research Service. That total includes $82 billion that lawmakers approved in May. Now, the Senate would give President Bush $50 billion more for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as part of a $440 billion defense-spending measure a panel approved yesterday. In my view, any Senator and/or member of Congress who votes to approve this added spending should not be re-elected.
At least 40 percent of current state employees in 20 states will be eligible for retirement by 2015, according to a 37-state survey released earlier this year by the Government Performance Project. Washington, Maine, Tennessee, Michigan and Pennsylvania will have the most employees reaching retirement age in the next 10 years, according to the study by GPP, which like Stateline.org is funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts.
In addition to an aging workforce, CanagaRetna of CSG said other factors are creating unfunded liabilities in state pension programs. For example, states such as Illinois, New Jersey and North Carolina decreased payments into their retirement systems to help balance their books during the fiscal crisis and are now scrambling to catch up, he said. Experts say states, counties and cities are short $292.4 billion in money promised through their public employee retirement systems.
Fed’s Moskow: "We feel it's necessary to reduce accommodation.”
The 10-year Treasury bond yield has risen to 4.29%, and the 118 point basis point yield spread with the 10-year German bond is the widest in 5 years.
Palatin Technologies, Inc. announced that it will present at the UBS Global Life Sciences Conference at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, September 27, 2005 at the Grand Hyatt New York in New York City.
Yesterday, PTN had this year’s best day of trading. The vast majority of the heavy volume, 737,500 shares, traded on the upside, and the stock closed at $2.28, the highest closing price in 6 months. This morning, Palatin issued an important announcement that today the company is in receipt of $10 million from King Pharmaceuticals, Inc. pursuant to their strategic alliance to jointly develop PT-141 for the treatment of male and female sexual dysfunction. King will receive 4,499,336 shares of common stock plus warrants to purchase 719,894 shares of common stock at an exercise price of $2.22. Stephen Wills, Palatin’s CFO, commented: "We are very pleased with our relationship with King and the progress of the PT-141 program. With ongoing Phase 2 trials in both male and female sexual dysfunction patients, the commercial development program is in full swing and we look forward to the successful and continued advancement of the program towards Phase 3 pivotal trials."
Lowe’s, one of the great ones, estimates its 2006 EPS will increase by 17-20% and 16-20% in 2007.
Lennar lifted its estimate for 2005 t $8.05 per share.
The dollar advanced to its best level versus the euro since July.
Some refineries, such as Valero’s Pt. Arthur refinery, may be down for weeks. As such, gasoline rose to $2.04 and crude to $65.50 per barrel.
The Big Picture: “Ignoring energy - the inflationary data in the CPI - is less than pointless; It shifts the focus away from exactly where it should be: On the part of CPI that has been rapidly increasing in price.”
Dreamworks terminated talks to be acquired by NBC Universal.
According to the Financial Times, Wellpoint is near a deal to acquire WellChoice for about $6.5 billion in cash and stock.
Had Frist not voted to support stem cell research would he have had a problem over his sale of HCA stock?
Had Cindy Sheehan not camped out in Crawford, TX and held news conferences against the Iraq war would she had been arrested yesterday in DC for not having a permit to demonstrate?
Bush and his Administration will come to be known as the gang that couldn’t shoot straight. Unfortunately,
he is taking a nation down with him. By the way, are the Democrats still a political party? When did they ever offer a viable plan on any important national subject? Criticism is not an action plan.
Gary Lammert, The Economic Fractalist: “By this fractal reckoning the first decay base low will be reached in 5-6 more days and the entire three phase fractal decay cycle will be reached in 77 more trading days. Considering the enormity of imbalances, entitlements, and outstanding debt, this devolution could
potentially represent the 147 year nonlinear fall into the abyss. The collapsing financial picture will tax the American banking system with its inadequate fractional cash reserves in its ability to redeem deposits of concerned savers. This is not investment advice. It is a rather specific prospectively identified potential pattern that can be tested. Again as the daily fractal valuations evolve, further prognostic refinements may be indicated. However, the odds that the preceding identified daily Wilshire's fractals since March 2003, characterized by easily identifiable valuation lows, are occurring by chance and randomness alone -
resulting in exquisitely perfect quantum fractal patterns must, from a statistical point of view, approach zero. Based on this significant statistical improbability, the macro economy may very well operate via
its own predictable scientific fractal law. Time will tell.”
The U.S. Minerals Management Services reported that, in the Gulf of Mexico, shut-in oil production is 1,527,630 BOPD. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 100% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.
A newly-discovered virus has killed dogs in at least seven states, and veterinarians, kennel operators and pet owners are concerned because researchers say there is no vaccine and dogs do not have immunity to the new flu.
The Financial Times notes that Fitch Ratings pointed out that, in addition to the growth impact, higher oil prices could push the US current account deficit higher, thus accentuating global imbalances. It calculates, for example, that a higher oil import bill could see the US current account deficit reach $1,000bn in 2006, over seven per cent of GDP – and warns this could “amplify concerns about its sustainability and the risk of increased volatility in global currencies and other asset markets.”
The European Union posted a 3.2 billion euro ($3.86 billion) overall trade deficit in July, nearly double the total of the previous month, according to first estimates from the EU statistics agency Eurostat released Tuesday.The total deficit for the 25 nations of the EU increased from a deficit of 1.8 billion euros ($2.17 billion) in June, and compared with a 1 billion euro surplus in July 2004.
Helen Keller: "We could never learn to be brave and patient, if there were only joy in the world."
Finally, at last, Greenspan stated consumers have become enormously dependent on borrowing against their homes to fuel their spending, and that a rise in mortgage rates could trigger a spending pullback. However, he observed that homeowners are not overly in debt. "The vast majority of homeowners have a sizable equity cushion with which to absorb a potential decline in house prices," he said. Meanwhile, existing-home sales climbed 2% in August, and the median price of a home increased close to 16% over the past 12 months.
Congress already has given the president about $350 billion for combat and reconstruction in Iraq and Afghanistan and fighting terrorism worldwide since the Sept. 11 attacks, according to the Congressional Research Service. That total includes $82 billion that lawmakers approved in May. Now, the Senate would give President Bush $50 billion more for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as part of a $440 billion defense-spending measure a panel approved yesterday. In my view, any Senator and/or member of Congress who votes to approve this added spending should not be re-elected.
At least 40 percent of current state employees in 20 states will be eligible for retirement by 2015, according to a 37-state survey released earlier this year by the Government Performance Project. Washington, Maine, Tennessee, Michigan and Pennsylvania will have the most employees reaching retirement age in the next 10 years, according to the study by GPP, which like Stateline.org is funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts.
In addition to an aging workforce, CanagaRetna of CSG said other factors are creating unfunded liabilities in state pension programs. For example, states such as Illinois, New Jersey and North Carolina decreased payments into their retirement systems to help balance their books during the fiscal crisis and are now scrambling to catch up, he said. Experts say states, counties and cities are short $292.4 billion in money promised through their public employee retirement systems.
Fed’s Moskow: "We feel it's necessary to reduce accommodation.”
The 10-year Treasury bond yield has risen to 4.29%, and the 118 point basis point yield spread with the 10-year German bond is the widest in 5 years.
Palatin Technologies, Inc. announced that it will present at the UBS Global Life Sciences Conference at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, September 27, 2005 at the Grand Hyatt New York in New York City.
Yesterday, PTN had this year’s best day of trading. The vast majority of the heavy volume, 737,500 shares, traded on the upside, and the stock closed at $2.28, the highest closing price in 6 months. This morning, Palatin issued an important announcement that today the company is in receipt of $10 million from King Pharmaceuticals, Inc. pursuant to their strategic alliance to jointly develop PT-141 for the treatment of male and female sexual dysfunction. King will receive 4,499,336 shares of common stock plus warrants to purchase 719,894 shares of common stock at an exercise price of $2.22. Stephen Wills, Palatin’s CFO, commented: "We are very pleased with our relationship with King and the progress of the PT-141 program. With ongoing Phase 2 trials in both male and female sexual dysfunction patients, the commercial development program is in full swing and we look forward to the successful and continued advancement of the program towards Phase 3 pivotal trials."
Lowe’s, one of the great ones, estimates its 2006 EPS will increase by 17-20% and 16-20% in 2007.
Lennar lifted its estimate for 2005 t $8.05 per share.
The dollar advanced to its best level versus the euro since July.
Some refineries, such as Valero’s Pt. Arthur refinery, may be down for weeks. As such, gasoline rose to $2.04 and crude to $65.50 per barrel.
The Big Picture: “Ignoring energy - the inflationary data in the CPI - is less than pointless; It shifts the focus away from exactly where it should be: On the part of CPI that has been rapidly increasing in price.”
Dreamworks terminated talks to be acquired by NBC Universal.
According to the Financial Times, Wellpoint is near a deal to acquire WellChoice for about $6.5 billion in cash and stock.
Had Frist not voted to support stem cell research would he have had a problem over his sale of HCA stock?
Had Cindy Sheehan not camped out in Crawford, TX and held news conferences against the Iraq war would she had been arrested yesterday in DC for not having a permit to demonstrate?
Bush and his Administration will come to be known as the gang that couldn’t shoot straight. Unfortunately,
he is taking a nation down with him. By the way, are the Democrats still a political party? When did they ever offer a viable plan on any important national subject? Criticism is not an action plan.
Gary Lammert, The Economic Fractalist: “By this fractal reckoning the first decay base low will be reached in 5-6 more days and the entire three phase fractal decay cycle will be reached in 77 more trading days. Considering the enormity of imbalances, entitlements, and outstanding debt, this devolution could
potentially represent the 147 year nonlinear fall into the abyss. The collapsing financial picture will tax the American banking system with its inadequate fractional cash reserves in its ability to redeem deposits of concerned savers. This is not investment advice. It is a rather specific prospectively identified potential pattern that can be tested. Again as the daily fractal valuations evolve, further prognostic refinements may be indicated. However, the odds that the preceding identified daily Wilshire's fractals since March 2003, characterized by easily identifiable valuation lows, are occurring by chance and randomness alone -
resulting in exquisitely perfect quantum fractal patterns must, from a statistical point of view, approach zero. Based on this significant statistical improbability, the macro economy may very well operate via
its own predictable scientific fractal law. Time will tell.”
The U.S. Minerals Management Services reported that, in the Gulf of Mexico, shut-in oil production is 1,527,630 BOPD. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 100% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.
A newly-discovered virus has killed dogs in at least seven states, and veterinarians, kennel operators and pet owners are concerned because researchers say there is no vaccine and dogs do not have immunity to the new flu.
The Financial Times notes that Fitch Ratings pointed out that, in addition to the growth impact, higher oil prices could push the US current account deficit higher, thus accentuating global imbalances. It calculates, for example, that a higher oil import bill could see the US current account deficit reach $1,000bn in 2006, over seven per cent of GDP – and warns this could “amplify concerns about its sustainability and the risk of increased volatility in global currencies and other asset markets.”
The European Union posted a 3.2 billion euro ($3.86 billion) overall trade deficit in July, nearly double the total of the previous month, according to first estimates from the EU statistics agency Eurostat released Tuesday.The total deficit for the 25 nations of the EU increased from a deficit of 1.8 billion euros ($2.17 billion) in June, and compared with a 1 billion euro surplus in July 2004.
Helen Keller: "We could never learn to be brave and patient, if there were only joy in the world."
Monday, September 26, 2005
Good News
9/26/05 Good News
Boeing and the Machinists Union have reached agreement on a new contract, and the 3+ week strike will come end. Terms of the contract offer include:
-- A pension multiplier of $70 per month for each year of service,
-- Maintaining existing health care plans under the same cost provisions
of the IAM's previous contract with Boeing,
-- A ratification bonus equaling 8 percent of each employee's total pay
during the past 12 months, which will average about $5,200 per
individual, and
-- Two lump sum bonuses, of $3,000 each, which will be paid at the end of
2006 and 2007.
The new three-year agreement at DaimlerChrysler has been overwhelmingly ratified by CAW members at meetings across Ontario, Canada. In addition to modest improvements in wages, pensions, and other benefits, the agreement ensures the continued operation of all existing facilities and shifts and commits the company to a major new investment in its Windsor assembly plant. The contract also provides for changes in the delivery of health benefits that will save tens of millions of dollars annually. Without harming the quality of the benefits which CAW members receive.
Only 3 refineries were hurt by Rita, and major damage was averted. Crude has declined to $63.20 per barrel.
The Nikkei hit a new 4-year high.
India’s GDP grew 7.1% in this year’s second quarter.
China’s GDP is expected to grow at a 9.2% rate this year.
According to the WSJ Online and Business Week Online, the buyout interest for Albertson’s is heating up.
China continues to aim for full yuan convertibility.
According to the Lundberg survey, in the past two weeks the retail price of gasoline declined 20 cents a gallon nationwide.
The United States has called for expansion of the Group of Seven, a club of world's wealthiest nations, to include India.
During Katrina and Rita, the nation has witnessed the toll on human capital and, to a much less important extent, political capital. Through all the devastation, life will continue. Life will change for many, but life will still go on. Hopefully, our citizens can now have a more keen focus on the daily quality of life and the pursuit of mutual caring and the respect for the rights and freedoms of the individual. The hurricanes have proven that government cannot deliver well being to your doorstep. Only the individual has the power to accomplish such a feat.
Boeing and the Machinists Union have reached agreement on a new contract, and the 3+ week strike will come end. Terms of the contract offer include:
-- A pension multiplier of $70 per month for each year of service,
-- Maintaining existing health care plans under the same cost provisions
of the IAM's previous contract with Boeing,
-- A ratification bonus equaling 8 percent of each employee's total pay
during the past 12 months, which will average about $5,200 per
individual, and
-- Two lump sum bonuses, of $3,000 each, which will be paid at the end of
2006 and 2007.
The new three-year agreement at DaimlerChrysler has been overwhelmingly ratified by CAW members at meetings across Ontario, Canada. In addition to modest improvements in wages, pensions, and other benefits, the agreement ensures the continued operation of all existing facilities and shifts and commits the company to a major new investment in its Windsor assembly plant. The contract also provides for changes in the delivery of health benefits that will save tens of millions of dollars annually. Without harming the quality of the benefits which CAW members receive.
Only 3 refineries were hurt by Rita, and major damage was averted. Crude has declined to $63.20 per barrel.
The Nikkei hit a new 4-year high.
India’s GDP grew 7.1% in this year’s second quarter.
China’s GDP is expected to grow at a 9.2% rate this year.
According to the WSJ Online and Business Week Online, the buyout interest for Albertson’s is heating up.
China continues to aim for full yuan convertibility.
According to the Lundberg survey, in the past two weeks the retail price of gasoline declined 20 cents a gallon nationwide.
The United States has called for expansion of the Group of Seven, a club of world's wealthiest nations, to include India.
During Katrina and Rita, the nation has witnessed the toll on human capital and, to a much less important extent, political capital. Through all the devastation, life will continue. Life will change for many, but life will still go on. Hopefully, our citizens can now have a more keen focus on the daily quality of life and the pursuit of mutual caring and the respect for the rights and freedoms of the individual. The hurricanes have proven that government cannot deliver well being to your doorstep. Only the individual has the power to accomplish such a feat.
Sunday, September 25, 2005
Lost Control
9/25/05 Lost Control
According to Reuters, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told France's Finance Minister Thierry Breton the United States has "lost control" of its budget deficit, the French minister said on Saturday.
"'We have lost control,' that was his expression," Breton told reporters after a bilateral meeting with Greenspan.
"The United States has lost control of their budget at a time when racking up deficits has been authorized without any control (from Congress)," Breton said.
"We were both disappointed that the management of debt is not a political priority today," he added.
People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan: "Along with time, we are going to allow our exchange rate to depend more and more on stabilizing market relationships.
That also means that the role of the reference basket of currencies will gradually be reduced. We are not in a hurry to move forward, but we have this direction,"
Porsche AG, the maker of the Boxster sports car, said it plans to buy 20 percent of Volkswagen AG to prevent a takeover of that company.
Overall, Rita did minimal damage to the oil refineries along the Gulf coast, crude declined close to $1 per barrel. However, Valero Energy Corp. said it will take two weeks to a month to repair and restart its 255,000-barrel-per-day Port Arthur refinery, which sustained "significant damage to two cooling towers and a flare stack." It’s important to remember that the hurricane season does not end until November.
The procedure involving endovascular repair of arterial aneurysms behind Cheney’s right and left knees lasted 6 hours. The procedure was performed by Dr. Anthony
Venbrux, Director of Interventional Radiology, Dr. Jonathan Reiner, Director of the Cardiac Catheterization Laboratory, and Dr. Joseph Giordano, Chairman of Surgery. Joining the team were Dr. Barry Katzen, Director of the Baptist Heart and Vascular Institute at Baptist Hospital in Miami and Dr. PeterGloviczki, Chair of Vascular Surgery at Mayo Clinic. Cheney will remain in the hospital for 48 hours. The procedure went well, but at the same time, it was a big deal, and going forward, significant risk exists.
Jim Williams of Williams Inference Center: "The medication for Parkinson's, the desire to gamble and the craving for excess food have one common denominator, dopamine.
Dopamine is a pleasure-inducing brain chemical, a neurotransmitter that controls action. Dopamine is associated with addiction of all types…Dopamine has been associated with the novelty of drinking, gambling and other addictions, but it is also connected with curiosity, adventure, entrepreneurship and accomplishments.”
China has developed its own typing reagent of hematopoietic stem cell, which could be used to cure leukemia, according to sources with the Chinese Academy of Military Medical Sciences. The home-made HLA-DRB1 typing reagent is cheaper than imported reagent of its kind and is easier and quicker in use, said Wang Shengqi, head of the key laboratory of biological genetic chips under the academy, who has led the team of this research for five years.
The new typing reagent can be used to test all the 13 discovered genetic types of HLA-DRB1, covering all the 18 known serological types, according to Wang.
Yesterday, there was gibberish from Lukoil that they would try to make trouble at the 11th hour on the acquisition of PetroKazakhstan. It’s always vital to take note of what actions are taken rather than words spoken. The most important task for Lukoil's new representative office in China, which was officially registered in Beijing on Thursday, is to develop and deepen business in the Asia-Pacific region and in China in particular, Lukoil Vice-President Valery Golovushkin told Russian journalists. The representative office's main activities will be preparing information and developing projects that will enhance cooperation between Lukoil and its Chinese partners in such areas as oil exploration and production, the development of infrastructure in the oil industry, oil refining and the sales market, Golovushkin said. Lukoil is prepared to establish such cooperation with China based on understandings and conditions the two sides set together, he said. At the current stage, Lukoil will work on expanding trade activities in China and in the region as a whole, Golovushkin said. Lukoil plans to deliver about 1 million tonnes of oil to China in 2005 mainly by sea, the vice-president said. Golovushkin did not rule out the possibility that Lukoil may participate in filling the Kazakh-Chinese oil pipeline with oil from Western Siberia.
Swiss Bank UBS’ global shipping analyser said freight fees would tumble 15pc in 2006 and a further 5pc in 2007, ending the profits bonzana for shipping companies. It said oil tanker rates would remain strong.
"Not only is demand softening, but the supply order-book is shortening," said the bank, predicting that container capacity would rise by 14.5pc next year. It said the "staggering growth" led by Chinese exports since December 2001 was now clearly over. "Total sea export growth to the US and northern Europe is now slowing across all industry, with the exception of clothing," it said. Exports of Chinese furniture, toys and shoes have reached "saturation level", while there are signs that China is "moving up the value chain" to more sophisticated products that required less ship space. Freight rates for shipping manufactured goods have shot up 46pc since 2002 on the main Atlantic and Pacific routes but may now have peaked.
The Baltic Exchange Dry Index, which measures the cost of shipping coal, grain, iron ore and other goods worldwide, soared over 500pc from the beginning of the decade to late 2004, but has since given up half the gains.
The Gulf IT (GITEX) opened at the World Trade Center in Dubai. A design center was established in Dubai to attract the world’s multi-national high technology firms to establish cost-effective R&D and manufacturing operations. Today, it was announced that LSI Logic Corporation is establishing a semiconductor design and engineering development center focused on the design of high performance consumer electronics solutions. The LSI Logic development center will be located at Dubai’s DSO Microelectronics Innovation Center.
Logan.P. Smith: “It is through the cracks in our brains that ecstasy creeps in.”
According to Reuters, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told France's Finance Minister Thierry Breton the United States has "lost control" of its budget deficit, the French minister said on Saturday.
"'We have lost control,' that was his expression," Breton told reporters after a bilateral meeting with Greenspan.
"The United States has lost control of their budget at a time when racking up deficits has been authorized without any control (from Congress)," Breton said.
"We were both disappointed that the management of debt is not a political priority today," he added.
People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan: "Along with time, we are going to allow our exchange rate to depend more and more on stabilizing market relationships.
That also means that the role of the reference basket of currencies will gradually be reduced. We are not in a hurry to move forward, but we have this direction,"
Porsche AG, the maker of the Boxster sports car, said it plans to buy 20 percent of Volkswagen AG to prevent a takeover of that company.
Overall, Rita did minimal damage to the oil refineries along the Gulf coast, crude declined close to $1 per barrel. However, Valero Energy Corp. said it will take two weeks to a month to repair and restart its 255,000-barrel-per-day Port Arthur refinery, which sustained "significant damage to two cooling towers and a flare stack." It’s important to remember that the hurricane season does not end until November.
The procedure involving endovascular repair of arterial aneurysms behind Cheney’s right and left knees lasted 6 hours. The procedure was performed by Dr. Anthony
Venbrux, Director of Interventional Radiology, Dr. Jonathan Reiner, Director of the Cardiac Catheterization Laboratory, and Dr. Joseph Giordano, Chairman of Surgery. Joining the team were Dr. Barry Katzen, Director of the Baptist Heart and Vascular Institute at Baptist Hospital in Miami and Dr. PeterGloviczki, Chair of Vascular Surgery at Mayo Clinic. Cheney will remain in the hospital for 48 hours. The procedure went well, but at the same time, it was a big deal, and going forward, significant risk exists.
Jim Williams of Williams Inference Center: "The medication for Parkinson's, the desire to gamble and the craving for excess food have one common denominator, dopamine.
Dopamine is a pleasure-inducing brain chemical, a neurotransmitter that controls action. Dopamine is associated with addiction of all types…Dopamine has been associated with the novelty of drinking, gambling and other addictions, but it is also connected with curiosity, adventure, entrepreneurship and accomplishments.”
China has developed its own typing reagent of hematopoietic stem cell, which could be used to cure leukemia, according to sources with the Chinese Academy of Military Medical Sciences. The home-made HLA-DRB1 typing reagent is cheaper than imported reagent of its kind and is easier and quicker in use, said Wang Shengqi, head of the key laboratory of biological genetic chips under the academy, who has led the team of this research for five years.
The new typing reagent can be used to test all the 13 discovered genetic types of HLA-DRB1, covering all the 18 known serological types, according to Wang.
Yesterday, there was gibberish from Lukoil that they would try to make trouble at the 11th hour on the acquisition of PetroKazakhstan. It’s always vital to take note of what actions are taken rather than words spoken. The most important task for Lukoil's new representative office in China, which was officially registered in Beijing on Thursday, is to develop and deepen business in the Asia-Pacific region and in China in particular, Lukoil Vice-President Valery Golovushkin told Russian journalists. The representative office's main activities will be preparing information and developing projects that will enhance cooperation between Lukoil and its Chinese partners in such areas as oil exploration and production, the development of infrastructure in the oil industry, oil refining and the sales market, Golovushkin said. Lukoil is prepared to establish such cooperation with China based on understandings and conditions the two sides set together, he said. At the current stage, Lukoil will work on expanding trade activities in China and in the region as a whole, Golovushkin said. Lukoil plans to deliver about 1 million tonnes of oil to China in 2005 mainly by sea, the vice-president said. Golovushkin did not rule out the possibility that Lukoil may participate in filling the Kazakh-Chinese oil pipeline with oil from Western Siberia.
Swiss Bank UBS’ global shipping analyser said freight fees would tumble 15pc in 2006 and a further 5pc in 2007, ending the profits bonzana for shipping companies. It said oil tanker rates would remain strong.
"Not only is demand softening, but the supply order-book is shortening," said the bank, predicting that container capacity would rise by 14.5pc next year. It said the "staggering growth" led by Chinese exports since December 2001 was now clearly over. "Total sea export growth to the US and northern Europe is now slowing across all industry, with the exception of clothing," it said. Exports of Chinese furniture, toys and shoes have reached "saturation level", while there are signs that China is "moving up the value chain" to more sophisticated products that required less ship space. Freight rates for shipping manufactured goods have shot up 46pc since 2002 on the main Atlantic and Pacific routes but may now have peaked.
The Baltic Exchange Dry Index, which measures the cost of shipping coal, grain, iron ore and other goods worldwide, soared over 500pc from the beginning of the decade to late 2004, but has since given up half the gains.
The Gulf IT (GITEX) opened at the World Trade Center in Dubai. A design center was established in Dubai to attract the world’s multi-national high technology firms to establish cost-effective R&D and manufacturing operations. Today, it was announced that LSI Logic Corporation is establishing a semiconductor design and engineering development center focused on the design of high performance consumer electronics solutions. The LSI Logic development center will be located at Dubai’s DSO Microelectronics Innovation Center.
Logan.P. Smith: “It is through the cracks in our brains that ecstasy creeps in.”
Saturday, September 24, 2005
Pre The Next Storm
9/24/05 Pre The Next Storm
“Investing some of China’s massive foreign reserves into U.S. Treasurys is ‘not worthwhile,’ a senior party official said… ‘I think it’s better that China should invest its huge forex reserves in overseas energy resources stocks as reserves,’ said Zheng Xinli, deputy minister of China’s Central Policy Research Office.”
Doug Noland: “The confluence of booming mortgage Credit, ballooning Wall Street balance sheets, surging “repo” finance and unprecedented ABS issuance is seductively problematic. “Financial conditions” are patently and conspicuously much too easy. The “confluence” works magically in loose monetary conditions, creating only more liquidity and the loosest environment imaginable. This “confluence,” however, will function especially poorly when financial conditions eventually tighten, a development increasingly necessary to rein in heightened global inflationary pressures and precarious asset Bubbles.”
According to iSuppli, the 2GB iPod Nano retails in the US for $199. Of that, iSuppli states, less that half - $90.18 - goes on components. Add in $8 per unit labor costs, and Apple's base margin is a whopping $100.82. In addition, one can probably add a little more for software development.
Keith Olbermann: “No one is suggesting that mayors or governors in the afflicted areas, nor the federal government, should be able to stop hurricanes. Lord knows, no one is suggesting that we should ever prioritize levee improvement for a below-sea-level city, ahead of $454 million worth of trophy bridges for the politicians of Alaska.”
Palm Inc. is expected to end years of rivalry with Microsoft Corp. on Monday and announce that a version of its popular Treo handheld unit will run on Microsoft’s operating system.
Hurricane Rita has weakened to a Category 2 storm as it has moved farther inland, the National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to about 100 miles per hour and further weakening is expected during the day.
Wal-Mart: “In the Hurricane Rita location stores, we saw an increase in items such as canned foods, water, candles, batteries, and lighting (flashlights and lanterns). In Hurricane Katrina areas, we are seeing increased sales in items such as basic apparel, hardware, and cleaning supplies. Average ticket drove the comp sales and the strongest regions were the South and Southeast. We anticipate increased fuel supply issues with Hurricane Rita versus Hurricane Katrina due to the number refineries that could be impacted.”
Irish Blessings: "May God give you...For every storm a rainbow, for every tear a smile, for every care a promise and a blessing in each trial. For every problem life sends, a faithful friend to share, for every sigh a sweet song and an answer for each prayer."
“Investing some of China’s massive foreign reserves into U.S. Treasurys is ‘not worthwhile,’ a senior party official said… ‘I think it’s better that China should invest its huge forex reserves in overseas energy resources stocks as reserves,’ said Zheng Xinli, deputy minister of China’s Central Policy Research Office.”
Doug Noland: “The confluence of booming mortgage Credit, ballooning Wall Street balance sheets, surging “repo” finance and unprecedented ABS issuance is seductively problematic. “Financial conditions” are patently and conspicuously much too easy. The “confluence” works magically in loose monetary conditions, creating only more liquidity and the loosest environment imaginable. This “confluence,” however, will function especially poorly when financial conditions eventually tighten, a development increasingly necessary to rein in heightened global inflationary pressures and precarious asset Bubbles.”
According to iSuppli, the 2GB iPod Nano retails in the US for $199. Of that, iSuppli states, less that half - $90.18 - goes on components. Add in $8 per unit labor costs, and Apple's base margin is a whopping $100.82. In addition, one can probably add a little more for software development.
Keith Olbermann: “No one is suggesting that mayors or governors in the afflicted areas, nor the federal government, should be able to stop hurricanes. Lord knows, no one is suggesting that we should ever prioritize levee improvement for a below-sea-level city, ahead of $454 million worth of trophy bridges for the politicians of Alaska.”
Palm Inc. is expected to end years of rivalry with Microsoft Corp. on Monday and announce that a version of its popular Treo handheld unit will run on Microsoft’s operating system.
Hurricane Rita has weakened to a Category 2 storm as it has moved farther inland, the National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to about 100 miles per hour and further weakening is expected during the day.
Wal-Mart: “In the Hurricane Rita location stores, we saw an increase in items such as canned foods, water, candles, batteries, and lighting (flashlights and lanterns). In Hurricane Katrina areas, we are seeing increased sales in items such as basic apparel, hardware, and cleaning supplies. Average ticket drove the comp sales and the strongest regions were the South and Southeast. We anticipate increased fuel supply issues with Hurricane Rita versus Hurricane Katrina due to the number refineries that could be impacted.”
Irish Blessings: "May God give you...For every storm a rainbow, for every tear a smile, for every care a promise and a blessing in each trial. For every problem life sends, a faithful friend to share, for every sigh a sweet song and an answer for each prayer."
Friday, September 23, 2005
A Changing World
9/23/05 A Changing World
The People's Bank of China said in a statement that it has widened the trading band against non-US dollar currencies to 3% on either side of a central parity rate from 1.5%, AFX reported. The changes are effective immediately.
It said the yuan-dollar trading band for retail transactions has been widened to 1%, around the central parity rate, also with immediate effect. The previous trading band was 0.2% on either side of parity.
The central bank said the retail yuan-dollar trading band for cash transactions has been widened to 4% from 1%, according to AFX.
Sears’ medical costs for retirees last year equated to 17% of the company’s operating income. Sears will stop subsidizing health care coverage for new employees and cut some retiree health benefits.
Ford will announce another round of cost cutting and reorganization on October 20.
Delta will cut up to 9,000 jobs by the end of 2007 and continue to reduce management’s salaries.
Analyst Charlie Di Bona of Sanford Bernstein stated that, if Oracle had included the corresponding year-ago applications sales of PeopleSoft and Retek, another Oracle acquisition, its application license sales would have actually fallen. To make matters worse, new sales of Oracle’s database software rose 1%. This information was announced after the close. However, during the day, Ellison gave a rosy long-tern outlook on Oracle doubling its business- - naturally it won’t happen organically. Just a piece of advice from the cheap seats. Before making more acquisitions, it might be wise to grow database and application revenues.
"The same things that harm the heart, such as smoking, high cholesterol,
obesity, high blood pressure, stress and genetic factors, harm the blood
vessels throughout your body," says Peter Henke, M.D., a vascular surgeon and
medical director of the Noninvasive Diagnostic Vascular Laboratory at the U-M
Cardiovascular Center. "Vice President Cheney is like millions of Americans who have lived with all of these risk factors for many years, and like many Americans, especially
men, his blood vessels are showing signs of wear and tear. Fortunately, he
was diagnosed and is being treated before something more serious happens,"
Henke adds.
Cheney's operation this weekend is for a condition called a popliteal aneurysm
(POP-li-teel ANN-yur-ism), which is a bulging, weakened spot in the main
artery that travels up the back of the leg. They're often diagnosed when a
physical exam reveals a bulge in the leg or a patient complains of leg pain
and tiredness. Cheney's spokespeople have said he has one of these aneurysms
behind each knee; the operation this weekend will fix one of them.
Popliteal aneurysms can encourage the formation of blood clots that can
block blood flow to the legs and can lead to amputation of a limb. Once a
person begins having symptoms from their popliteal aneurysm, they have a 1 in
5 chance of losing a leg, and a 1 in 20 chance of dying, unless the problem is
treated.
But even more seriously, the presence of popliteal aneurysms can mean that
a person has a high risk of having other aneurysms elsewhere in their body,
says Henke, an Associate Professor of Vascular Surgery who specializes in
diagnosing and repairing aneurysms and other blood vessel problems in the
legs, neck and trunk. And those kinds of aneurysms carry even higher risks of death and
disability. The biggest threat, Henke explains, are aneurysms in the aorta,
the giant artery that brings blood out of the heart and branches off to feed
the body. Like popliteal aneurysms, aortic aneurysms are much more common among
people who have smoked, and who have had high cholesterol and high blood
pressure for years. Men, and people with a family history of aneurysms, have
a much higher risk. Risk also rises with a person's age. With every beat of the heart, the high pressure of blood rushing through the aorta presses on the blood vessel's muscular walls. "Hardened" artery walls, made stiff by cholesterol deposits and the effects of smoking and high blood pressure, can become weak in spots. At any of those spots, the force of the blood can cause an aneurysm to bulge out, and to grow over time. Or, it
can cause the layers of the aorta wall to come apart, a condition called
aortic dissection that killed actor John Ritter.
President Bush: "To leave Iraq now would be to repeat the costly mistakes of
the past that led to the attacks of September the 11th, 2001. The terrorists
saw our response to the hostage crisis in Iran, the bombings in the Marine
barracks in Lebanon, the first World Trade Center attack, the killing of
American soldiers in Somalia, the destruction of two U.S. embassies in Africa,
and the attack on the USS Cole. The terrorists concluded that we lacked the
courage and character to defend ourselves, and so they attacked us." The fact that advanced warnings were provided- - that fact was not included in yesterday’s speech.
According to AFX News Limited, China National Petroleum Corp's board (CNPC) held an emergency meeting yesterday and has decided not to raise its original bid of 4.18 bln usd for PetroKazakhstan Inc, a CNPC official said.
'CNPC held an emergency meeting yesterday to discuss PetroKazakhstan,' the official said. He said CNPC's bid for the New York and Toronto-listed oil and gas company has been facing several difficulties including potential new bids and complications with joint-venture partners. He said an Abu Dhabi investment fund had expressed interest in acquiring PetroKazakhstan. He also said CNPC's bid was facing difficulties with PetroKazakhstan's joint venture with Russian oil company Lukoil. 'If CNPC wants to buy PetroKazakhstan, it must consider the joint venture which is very profitable,' he said.
ONGC has submitted a 1.2 bln usd bid for the A-1 21 block in Nigeria through ONGC-Mittal Energy, the joint venture with steel tycoon LN Mittal, the Economic Times reported citing oil industry sources. ONGC has bid for deepwater oil blocks along with Nigeria-based Equator Exploration, it said.
The report also said the company is seeking shareholder approval to raise its borrowing limit to about 620 bln rupees. Now compare this $1.2 billion bid with the current CNPC $4.1 billion accepted offer for PKZ and the latter’s stated reserves as well as the close proximity to pipeline transportation.
Peter Schiff: "Do not be fooled by the President's pledge not to raising taxes. Inflation acts like a hidden tax, allowing government to transfer purchasing power from the public to itself. The government finances spending though inflation by issuing bonds that are subsequently purchased by the Federal Reserve, thereby creating new dollars that reduce the purchasing power of existing dollars. The result is that consumer prices rise to reflect the dollar's diminished value. Therefore, if the public does not pay higher income taxes to pay to rebuild the Gulf, it will certainly pay higher inflation taxes instead, as the real values of their incomes and savings will be diminished."
At this point, I don’t believe anyone can predict the damage from Hurricane Rita. This storm is both powerful and large—stretching from Galveston to Cameron. However, the impact will be felt for up to 200 miles away. Communities will need to contend with wind gusts of up to 140 miles per hour, rainfall possibly exceeding 18 inches, and waves as high as 25 feet.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Gerald Mohler: "It is not often that we as meteorologists throw out terms like catastrophic or life-threatening. However, when dealing with a storm the magnitude of Rita, these terms are certainly appropriate. Rita will still be moving over warm water into Friday. This should allow it to still be a Category 4 storm when it makes landfall late Friday night or early Saturday. If you live within a few miles of the coast, this is NOT a storm that you want to stay and try to ride out."
The People's Bank of China said in a statement that it has widened the trading band against non-US dollar currencies to 3% on either side of a central parity rate from 1.5%, AFX reported. The changes are effective immediately.
It said the yuan-dollar trading band for retail transactions has been widened to 1%, around the central parity rate, also with immediate effect. The previous trading band was 0.2% on either side of parity.
The central bank said the retail yuan-dollar trading band for cash transactions has been widened to 4% from 1%, according to AFX.
Sears’ medical costs for retirees last year equated to 17% of the company’s operating income. Sears will stop subsidizing health care coverage for new employees and cut some retiree health benefits.
Ford will announce another round of cost cutting and reorganization on October 20.
Delta will cut up to 9,000 jobs by the end of 2007 and continue to reduce management’s salaries.
Analyst Charlie Di Bona of Sanford Bernstein stated that, if Oracle had included the corresponding year-ago applications sales of PeopleSoft and Retek, another Oracle acquisition, its application license sales would have actually fallen. To make matters worse, new sales of Oracle’s database software rose 1%. This information was announced after the close. However, during the day, Ellison gave a rosy long-tern outlook on Oracle doubling its business- - naturally it won’t happen organically. Just a piece of advice from the cheap seats. Before making more acquisitions, it might be wise to grow database and application revenues.
"The same things that harm the heart, such as smoking, high cholesterol,
obesity, high blood pressure, stress and genetic factors, harm the blood
vessels throughout your body," says Peter Henke, M.D., a vascular surgeon and
medical director of the Noninvasive Diagnostic Vascular Laboratory at the U-M
Cardiovascular Center. "Vice President Cheney is like millions of Americans who have lived with all of these risk factors for many years, and like many Americans, especially
men, his blood vessels are showing signs of wear and tear. Fortunately, he
was diagnosed and is being treated before something more serious happens,"
Henke adds.
Cheney's operation this weekend is for a condition called a popliteal aneurysm
(POP-li-teel ANN-yur-ism), which is a bulging, weakened spot in the main
artery that travels up the back of the leg. They're often diagnosed when a
physical exam reveals a bulge in the leg or a patient complains of leg pain
and tiredness. Cheney's spokespeople have said he has one of these aneurysms
behind each knee; the operation this weekend will fix one of them.
Popliteal aneurysms can encourage the formation of blood clots that can
block blood flow to the legs and can lead to amputation of a limb. Once a
person begins having symptoms from their popliteal aneurysm, they have a 1 in
5 chance of losing a leg, and a 1 in 20 chance of dying, unless the problem is
treated.
But even more seriously, the presence of popliteal aneurysms can mean that
a person has a high risk of having other aneurysms elsewhere in their body,
says Henke, an Associate Professor of Vascular Surgery who specializes in
diagnosing and repairing aneurysms and other blood vessel problems in the
legs, neck and trunk. And those kinds of aneurysms carry even higher risks of death and
disability. The biggest threat, Henke explains, are aneurysms in the aorta,
the giant artery that brings blood out of the heart and branches off to feed
the body. Like popliteal aneurysms, aortic aneurysms are much more common among
people who have smoked, and who have had high cholesterol and high blood
pressure for years. Men, and people with a family history of aneurysms, have
a much higher risk. Risk also rises with a person's age. With every beat of the heart, the high pressure of blood rushing through the aorta presses on the blood vessel's muscular walls. "Hardened" artery walls, made stiff by cholesterol deposits and the effects of smoking and high blood pressure, can become weak in spots. At any of those spots, the force of the blood can cause an aneurysm to bulge out, and to grow over time. Or, it
can cause the layers of the aorta wall to come apart, a condition called
aortic dissection that killed actor John Ritter.
President Bush: "To leave Iraq now would be to repeat the costly mistakes of
the past that led to the attacks of September the 11th, 2001. The terrorists
saw our response to the hostage crisis in Iran, the bombings in the Marine
barracks in Lebanon, the first World Trade Center attack, the killing of
American soldiers in Somalia, the destruction of two U.S. embassies in Africa,
and the attack on the USS Cole. The terrorists concluded that we lacked the
courage and character to defend ourselves, and so they attacked us." The fact that advanced warnings were provided- - that fact was not included in yesterday’s speech.
According to AFX News Limited, China National Petroleum Corp's board (CNPC) held an emergency meeting yesterday and has decided not to raise its original bid of 4.18 bln usd for PetroKazakhstan Inc, a CNPC official said.
'CNPC held an emergency meeting yesterday to discuss PetroKazakhstan,' the official said. He said CNPC's bid for the New York and Toronto-listed oil and gas company has been facing several difficulties including potential new bids and complications with joint-venture partners. He said an Abu Dhabi investment fund had expressed interest in acquiring PetroKazakhstan. He also said CNPC's bid was facing difficulties with PetroKazakhstan's joint venture with Russian oil company Lukoil. 'If CNPC wants to buy PetroKazakhstan, it must consider the joint venture which is very profitable,' he said.
ONGC has submitted a 1.2 bln usd bid for the A-1 21 block in Nigeria through ONGC-Mittal Energy, the joint venture with steel tycoon LN Mittal, the Economic Times reported citing oil industry sources. ONGC has bid for deepwater oil blocks along with Nigeria-based Equator Exploration, it said.
The report also said the company is seeking shareholder approval to raise its borrowing limit to about 620 bln rupees. Now compare this $1.2 billion bid with the current CNPC $4.1 billion accepted offer for PKZ and the latter’s stated reserves as well as the close proximity to pipeline transportation.
Peter Schiff: "Do not be fooled by the President's pledge not to raising taxes. Inflation acts like a hidden tax, allowing government to transfer purchasing power from the public to itself. The government finances spending though inflation by issuing bonds that are subsequently purchased by the Federal Reserve, thereby creating new dollars that reduce the purchasing power of existing dollars. The result is that consumer prices rise to reflect the dollar's diminished value. Therefore, if the public does not pay higher income taxes to pay to rebuild the Gulf, it will certainly pay higher inflation taxes instead, as the real values of their incomes and savings will be diminished."
At this point, I don’t believe anyone can predict the damage from Hurricane Rita. This storm is both powerful and large—stretching from Galveston to Cameron. However, the impact will be felt for up to 200 miles away. Communities will need to contend with wind gusts of up to 140 miles per hour, rainfall possibly exceeding 18 inches, and waves as high as 25 feet.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Gerald Mohler: "It is not often that we as meteorologists throw out terms like catastrophic or life-threatening. However, when dealing with a storm the magnitude of Rita, these terms are certainly appropriate. Rita will still be moving over warm water into Friday. This should allow it to still be a Category 4 storm when it makes landfall late Friday night or early Saturday. If you live within a few miles of the coast, this is NOT a storm that you want to stay and try to ride out."
Thursday, September 22, 2005
Rita And Katrina
9/22/05 Rita And Katrina
Business Roundtable's new CEO Economic Outlook Survey, taken in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, suggests that CEOs expect their businesses and the U.S. economy to absorb a significant, but not overwhelming, hit in the aftermath of the epic August disaster. Business Roundtable is an association of chief executive officers of leading corporations with a combined workforce of more than 10 million employees and $4 trillion in annual revenues.
Key indicators -- capital expenditures, sales and employment plans for the
next six months trended downward in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. The survey showed a 14 percentage-point decline in anticipated capital expenditure
increases from the third quarter Economic Outlook Survey, which was taken
prior to Hurricane Katrina and released September 7.
Sales expectations declined slightly from the pre-Katrina survey as well,
with those anticipating higher sales over the next six months dropping by 9
percentage points.
Employment expectations were impacted the least with only a 2 percentage-
point drop in the number of those planning on hiring. The responses reflected
50 percent maintaining current employment, with some increases in sectors that
will be increasing activity to help in recovery, such as energy, equipment
manufacturing and construction.
"While the economy, as reflected in our survey results, clearly took a
hit, it does not appear to be uniformly negative," said Hank McKinnell,
Chairman of Business Roundtable and Chairman and CEO of Pfizer Inc. "Decreased capital spending is a cause for concern because these investments have been a significant driver of long term economic growth. It is a number we will be watching in the next survey."
I would like to re-print and re-emphasize the importance of information from one week ago: ATYRAU. September 14. KAZINFORM /Andrey Sokolov/ - Kazakhstan Prime Minister Daniyal Akhmetov, visiting Atyrau oblast, answered a number of questions of journalists. Concerning the sale of PetroKazakhstan shares, he stated, we are the country with open market economy. Kazakhstan does not interfere into the process of selling. They are realized at Toronto stock market. One who pays more will own PetroKazakhstan company. We will demonstrate the economic world we hold to sound economy and have no political interests. We want the companies, functioning in Kazakhstan, to be comfortable, Daniyal Akhmetov pointed out.
Please do not get caught up in a lot of noise. It can only create unnecessary thought and increased stress.
According to today’s India Business, "NEW DELHI: Oil and Natural Gas Corporation is rebidding for acquiring Petro kazakhstan, a Canadian exploration and refining firm with business in Kazakhstan, even as the country's most valuable company on Wednesday promised to start pumping gas from deep sea field from April and ramp up oil output 13% by 2009-10. A committee of secretaries has cleared ONGC's plans to rebid for Petrokazakhstan, which was lost last month to China National Petroleum Corporation narrowly when it was denied a chance to clarify certain conditions for raising the offer."
According to the California Association of Realtors, the projected median price of $523,150 set this year will increase 10 percent to $575,500 in 2006. Sales for 2006 are projected to reach 630,610 units, falling 2 percent compared with 2005. Home sales for California in 2005 are expected to reach a record 643,480 units, surpassing the prior sales record of 624,740 set last year, according to economists for the association.
A late August survey by the International Council of Shopping Centers found 58% of consumers cut back on discretionary spending because of high gas prices. One out of five middle-income customers said they had reduced spending.
Mish stated that The Guardian is also reporting 34% of Britons are running out of money five days before payday.
What I am about to say may sound trite. If it does, then don’t bother reading any further. I write for me and not for you. Katrina and Rita should illustrate the importance of making the most of every day, and not taking anyone or any thing for granted. After Katrina, I wrote that the hurricane season is not over. After Rita, the hurricane season will not be over. Maybe 1.3 million or more people will flee and evacuate pre-Rita hitting the Louisiana-Texas coast. People can hide inland but the infrastructure and the services cannot. You can shut down refineries and rigs. You can shut off power. You can shut down 175 mile per hour winds. I cannot even imagine winds like that. Last year I experienced winds of 120 miles per hour in Florida. The power was unimaginable. The surf was something I had never witnessed up close. Maybe a miracle will spare this coastline and the cities from parts of Louisiana to Galveston. Don’t bet on miracles. Despite the words from Bush and Greenspan, the economic foundation of our country rests on debt. Hurricanes do not wipe out country and household debt. Hurricanes wipe out homes and businesses, the core of the equity in the U.S. I wish everyone well.
From The Economic Times (India): "The Committee of Secretaries has already given the nod to ONGC Videsh, to go ahead with a counter bid(PKZ). Industry sources said that OME has to also keep in mind that CNPC would get a chance to match the revised bid or better it. This development comes close on the heels of the recent controversy regarding the Nigerian blocks. OVL, which submitted the highest bid was denied operatorship or majority control of the blocks as Kogas was allowed to use its premption right. The preemption right over these blocks, which was given to Kogas just two days before the bids were submitted, was not known to the other players. Meanwhile, OVL is now getting ready for pumping out the first commercial gas from the Sakhalin fields in Russia from October."
"Ladies and gentlemen, the majority equity in your company(ONGC) is owned by the people of India, and the first citizen has articulated the desire of the people for sustained growth of your company into a global, integrated, multi-fuel energy business tasked to secure energy independence for India," Mr Raha said after quoting from President Abdul Kalam’s address to ONGC where he stressed on ONGC’s role in the "broader business of energy".
The IMF raised its forecast for Japan to 2 per cent from the 0.8 percent it expected in April. The lender increased its forecast for the rest of Asia to 7.3 per cent from 7, raising its projection for China to 9 per cent from 8.5 and for India to 7.1 per cent from 6.7. It cut its forecasts for economies such as South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia and Thailand.
The IMF reported that "after averaging some 40 per cent of GDP during the 1990s, China's gross domestic savings rate has increased sharply to close to 50 per cent of GDP over the past five years."
Northwest Airlines to lay off 1,400 attendants. Sony plans 10,000 job cuts.
Business Roundtable's new CEO Economic Outlook Survey, taken in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, suggests that CEOs expect their businesses and the U.S. economy to absorb a significant, but not overwhelming, hit in the aftermath of the epic August disaster. Business Roundtable is an association of chief executive officers of leading corporations with a combined workforce of more than 10 million employees and $4 trillion in annual revenues.
Key indicators -- capital expenditures, sales and employment plans for the
next six months trended downward in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. The survey showed a 14 percentage-point decline in anticipated capital expenditure
increases from the third quarter Economic Outlook Survey, which was taken
prior to Hurricane Katrina and released September 7.
Sales expectations declined slightly from the pre-Katrina survey as well,
with those anticipating higher sales over the next six months dropping by 9
percentage points.
Employment expectations were impacted the least with only a 2 percentage-
point drop in the number of those planning on hiring. The responses reflected
50 percent maintaining current employment, with some increases in sectors that
will be increasing activity to help in recovery, such as energy, equipment
manufacturing and construction.
"While the economy, as reflected in our survey results, clearly took a
hit, it does not appear to be uniformly negative," said Hank McKinnell,
Chairman of Business Roundtable and Chairman and CEO of Pfizer Inc. "Decreased capital spending is a cause for concern because these investments have been a significant driver of long term economic growth. It is a number we will be watching in the next survey."
I would like to re-print and re-emphasize the importance of information from one week ago: ATYRAU. September 14. KAZINFORM /Andrey Sokolov/ - Kazakhstan Prime Minister Daniyal Akhmetov, visiting Atyrau oblast, answered a number of questions of journalists. Concerning the sale of PetroKazakhstan shares, he stated, we are the country with open market economy. Kazakhstan does not interfere into the process of selling. They are realized at Toronto stock market. One who pays more will own PetroKazakhstan company. We will demonstrate the economic world we hold to sound economy and have no political interests. We want the companies, functioning in Kazakhstan, to be comfortable, Daniyal Akhmetov pointed out.
Please do not get caught up in a lot of noise. It can only create unnecessary thought and increased stress.
According to today’s India Business, "NEW DELHI: Oil and Natural Gas Corporation is rebidding for acquiring Petro kazakhstan, a Canadian exploration and refining firm with business in Kazakhstan, even as the country's most valuable company on Wednesday promised to start pumping gas from deep sea field from April and ramp up oil output 13% by 2009-10. A committee of secretaries has cleared ONGC's plans to rebid for Petrokazakhstan, which was lost last month to China National Petroleum Corporation narrowly when it was denied a chance to clarify certain conditions for raising the offer."
According to the California Association of Realtors, the projected median price of $523,150 set this year will increase 10 percent to $575,500 in 2006. Sales for 2006 are projected to reach 630,610 units, falling 2 percent compared with 2005. Home sales for California in 2005 are expected to reach a record 643,480 units, surpassing the prior sales record of 624,740 set last year, according to economists for the association.
A late August survey by the International Council of Shopping Centers found 58% of consumers cut back on discretionary spending because of high gas prices. One out of five middle-income customers said they had reduced spending.
Mish stated that The Guardian is also reporting 34% of Britons are running out of money five days before payday.
What I am about to say may sound trite. If it does, then don’t bother reading any further. I write for me and not for you. Katrina and Rita should illustrate the importance of making the most of every day, and not taking anyone or any thing for granted. After Katrina, I wrote that the hurricane season is not over. After Rita, the hurricane season will not be over. Maybe 1.3 million or more people will flee and evacuate pre-Rita hitting the Louisiana-Texas coast. People can hide inland but the infrastructure and the services cannot. You can shut down refineries and rigs. You can shut off power. You can shut down 175 mile per hour winds. I cannot even imagine winds like that. Last year I experienced winds of 120 miles per hour in Florida. The power was unimaginable. The surf was something I had never witnessed up close. Maybe a miracle will spare this coastline and the cities from parts of Louisiana to Galveston. Don’t bet on miracles. Despite the words from Bush and Greenspan, the economic foundation of our country rests on debt. Hurricanes do not wipe out country and household debt. Hurricanes wipe out homes and businesses, the core of the equity in the U.S. I wish everyone well.
From The Economic Times (India): "The Committee of Secretaries has already given the nod to ONGC Videsh, to go ahead with a counter bid(PKZ). Industry sources said that OME has to also keep in mind that CNPC would get a chance to match the revised bid or better it. This development comes close on the heels of the recent controversy regarding the Nigerian blocks. OVL, which submitted the highest bid was denied operatorship or majority control of the blocks as Kogas was allowed to use its premption right. The preemption right over these blocks, which was given to Kogas just two days before the bids were submitted, was not known to the other players. Meanwhile, OVL is now getting ready for pumping out the first commercial gas from the Sakhalin fields in Russia from October."
"Ladies and gentlemen, the majority equity in your company(ONGC) is owned by the people of India, and the first citizen has articulated the desire of the people for sustained growth of your company into a global, integrated, multi-fuel energy business tasked to secure energy independence for India," Mr Raha said after quoting from President Abdul Kalam’s address to ONGC where he stressed on ONGC’s role in the "broader business of energy".
The IMF raised its forecast for Japan to 2 per cent from the 0.8 percent it expected in April. The lender increased its forecast for the rest of Asia to 7.3 per cent from 7, raising its projection for China to 9 per cent from 8.5 and for India to 7.1 per cent from 6.7. It cut its forecasts for economies such as South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia and Thailand.
The IMF reported that "after averaging some 40 per cent of GDP during the 1990s, China's gross domestic savings rate has increased sharply to close to 50 per cent of GDP over the past five years."
Northwest Airlines to lay off 1,400 attendants. Sony plans 10,000 job cuts.
Wednesday, September 21, 2005
PKZ Bulletin
9/21/05 PKZ Bulletin
There is a Dow Jones release indicating the PetroKazakhstan gov't is trying to prevent the sale of PKZ. The key sentence is: "However, this amendment doesn't regulate deals involving listed companies, Nekhoroshev said. " Obviously, PKZ is a listed company.
There is a Dow Jones release indicating the PetroKazakhstan gov't is trying to prevent the sale of PKZ. The key sentence is: "However, this amendment doesn't regulate deals involving listed companies, Nekhoroshev said. " Obviously, PKZ is a listed company.
Going Forward
9/21/05 Going Forward
The damage caused by Hurricane Katrina, coupled with higher gas prices, is expected to contribute to an increasingly difficult outlook for certain retailers as the holiday season approaches, according to Deloitte Research's Leading Index of Consumer Spending. Amidst weakening home prices, a rising tax burden and slow job growth, rising inflation and Katrina could trigger heightened challenges for consumer spending through the end of 2005.
"Retailers face hurdles in the coming months," says Carl Steidtmann, chief
economist of Deloitte Research and author of the monthly index. "A natural
disaster of this magnitude will almost certainly have a negative impact on
consumer spending in the short run, and will likely hurt some retail segments
during the upcoming holiday season."
"However, we can anticipate an upturn in consumer spending in communities
to which storm victims are migrating, such as Houston and Baton Rouge,"
continued Steidtmann. "As rebuilding efforts begin, we should see a boost in
sales of home-related goods and building materials, as well as basic clothing
and kitchen goods."
"With the current level of uncertainty surrounding the consumer's ability
to spend, retailers need to continue to be vigilant about their inventory
levels, costs, and effective promotional strategies," said Pat Conroy, vice
chairman and national managing principal of Deloitte's Consumer Business
practice. "They must also increase their focus on converting consumers they
have attracted into their stores into buyers. Finding better ways to
positively impact these conversion rates will be a critical element to
retailers' success this upcoming season."
Federated Department Stores may lay off up to 6,200 employees. The N.Y. Times will cut 500 jobs. Philly papers cut 100 jobs.
India imports 70% of its oil. As such, bidding for PetroKazakhstan should not come as a surprise.
With all the concerns about Rita and the Fed raising rates, it was easy for this news on Palatin to get lost. Stan Hull is joining their Board of Directors. He has 27 years of experience with Glaxo and their predecessor company, and is currently Senior Vice President for Glaxo’s U.S. Pharmaceuticals-RTP Business Division. His expertise is in sales and marketing and strategic planning. It is quite a feat to get someone of his caliber on the board of a $100 million market cap company. You might ask what potential Hull sees that the market is missing.
Lennar Corporation, one of the nation's largest homebuilders, announced
today that earnings per share for the quarter ended August 31, 2005 will
exceed $2.00 per diluted share when the Company announces earnings in its
regularly scheduled earnings release next week. Additionally, deliveries will
exceed 10,900 homes vs. the previously announced goal of 10,800 homes,
homebuilding gross margin will exceed 26.0% (more than 300 basis points higher than last year) and net new orders will grow more than 20% compared to the prior year. Greater detail will be provided in next week's regularly
scheduled earnings conference call.
It is good to remember that Texas accounts for 25% of our nation’s total oil output. Rita has been upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane, and crude has topped $67 a barrel once again.
Petroleum ONGC Videsh Ltd, the overseas arm of state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC), has acquired a 30 per cent stake in seven oil and gas blocks in Cuba, which hold more than 4 billion barrels of oil reserves.
Mittal Steel Co., the world's biggest steel maker, received final approval from the Commerce Ministry to buy 36.67 percent of China's Hunan Valin Steel Tube & Wire Co. for 2.56 billion yuan ($316 million).
According to the OECD, the most affluent one-fifth of China's population earn 50% of total income, with the bottom one-fifth taking home only 4.7%. Last year the average rural income was 2,936 yuan ($362), less than one-third of the urban income of 9,422 yuan.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of total mortgage applications for home purchase and refinancing loans rose 1.5 percent to 772.2 in the week ended September 16. The index fell 1.4 percent in the previous week. The MBA's purchase index fell 2.6 percent to 500.3, reversing the previous week's 2.9 percent gain. The refinancing index rose 7.0 percent to 2,353.7, more than offsetting the previous week's 6.7 percent loss.
According to Businessweek.com, S&P sees the S&P Food Retail index outperforming the S&P 500; that margins will stabilize; that consolidation is likely; that Albertson's recent announcement on exploring alternatives focuses attention on underlying real estate values; and S&P's top picks are Albertson's, Kroger, and Safeway.
Rita is the 17th named hurricane of 2005. There has been only one year that the Atlantic had 21 hurricanes and that was seventy-two years ago in 1933. The National Hurricane Center emphasizes that the 2005 hurricane season is not expected to be over until November.
Qualcomm increased financial guidance for the 4th quarter and its fiscal year ending 9/30/05.
Mark Twain: "A thing long expected takes the form of the unexpected when at last it comes."
The damage caused by Hurricane Katrina, coupled with higher gas prices, is expected to contribute to an increasingly difficult outlook for certain retailers as the holiday season approaches, according to Deloitte Research's Leading Index of Consumer Spending. Amidst weakening home prices, a rising tax burden and slow job growth, rising inflation and Katrina could trigger heightened challenges for consumer spending through the end of 2005.
"Retailers face hurdles in the coming months," says Carl Steidtmann, chief
economist of Deloitte Research and author of the monthly index. "A natural
disaster of this magnitude will almost certainly have a negative impact on
consumer spending in the short run, and will likely hurt some retail segments
during the upcoming holiday season."
"However, we can anticipate an upturn in consumer spending in communities
to which storm victims are migrating, such as Houston and Baton Rouge,"
continued Steidtmann. "As rebuilding efforts begin, we should see a boost in
sales of home-related goods and building materials, as well as basic clothing
and kitchen goods."
"With the current level of uncertainty surrounding the consumer's ability
to spend, retailers need to continue to be vigilant about their inventory
levels, costs, and effective promotional strategies," said Pat Conroy, vice
chairman and national managing principal of Deloitte's Consumer Business
practice. "They must also increase their focus on converting consumers they
have attracted into their stores into buyers. Finding better ways to
positively impact these conversion rates will be a critical element to
retailers' success this upcoming season."
Federated Department Stores may lay off up to 6,200 employees. The N.Y. Times will cut 500 jobs. Philly papers cut 100 jobs.
India imports 70% of its oil. As such, bidding for PetroKazakhstan should not come as a surprise.
With all the concerns about Rita and the Fed raising rates, it was easy for this news on Palatin to get lost. Stan Hull is joining their Board of Directors. He has 27 years of experience with Glaxo and their predecessor company, and is currently Senior Vice President for Glaxo’s U.S. Pharmaceuticals-RTP Business Division. His expertise is in sales and marketing and strategic planning. It is quite a feat to get someone of his caliber on the board of a $100 million market cap company. You might ask what potential Hull sees that the market is missing.
Lennar Corporation, one of the nation's largest homebuilders, announced
today that earnings per share for the quarter ended August 31, 2005 will
exceed $2.00 per diluted share when the Company announces earnings in its
regularly scheduled earnings release next week. Additionally, deliveries will
exceed 10,900 homes vs. the previously announced goal of 10,800 homes,
homebuilding gross margin will exceed 26.0% (more than 300 basis points higher than last year) and net new orders will grow more than 20% compared to the prior year. Greater detail will be provided in next week's regularly
scheduled earnings conference call.
It is good to remember that Texas accounts for 25% of our nation’s total oil output. Rita has been upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane, and crude has topped $67 a barrel once again.
Petroleum ONGC Videsh Ltd, the overseas arm of state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC), has acquired a 30 per cent stake in seven oil and gas blocks in Cuba, which hold more than 4 billion barrels of oil reserves.
Mittal Steel Co., the world's biggest steel maker, received final approval from the Commerce Ministry to buy 36.67 percent of China's Hunan Valin Steel Tube & Wire Co. for 2.56 billion yuan ($316 million).
According to the OECD, the most affluent one-fifth of China's population earn 50% of total income, with the bottom one-fifth taking home only 4.7%. Last year the average rural income was 2,936 yuan ($362), less than one-third of the urban income of 9,422 yuan.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of total mortgage applications for home purchase and refinancing loans rose 1.5 percent to 772.2 in the week ended September 16. The index fell 1.4 percent in the previous week. The MBA's purchase index fell 2.6 percent to 500.3, reversing the previous week's 2.9 percent gain. The refinancing index rose 7.0 percent to 2,353.7, more than offsetting the previous week's 6.7 percent loss.
According to Businessweek.com, S&P sees the S&P Food Retail index outperforming the S&P 500; that margins will stabilize; that consolidation is likely; that Albertson's recent announcement on exploring alternatives focuses attention on underlying real estate values; and S&P's top picks are Albertson's, Kroger, and Safeway.
Rita is the 17th named hurricane of 2005. There has been only one year that the Atlantic had 21 hurricanes and that was seventy-two years ago in 1933. The National Hurricane Center emphasizes that the 2005 hurricane season is not expected to be over until November.
Qualcomm increased financial guidance for the 4th quarter and its fiscal year ending 9/30/05.
Mark Twain: "A thing long expected takes the form of the unexpected when at last it comes."
Tuesday, September 20, 2005
The Counterbid
9/20/05 The CounterbidIndia's ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) has decided to counter China National Petroleum Company's (CNPC's) 4.18 bln usd bid to acquire PetroKazakhstan, India's Financial Express newspaper reported in its online edition.The counter-offer will be made by ONGC Mittal Energy Ltd (OME), the joint venture floated by OVL and LN Mittal-promoted Mittal Investment Sarl, it said.ONGC Videsh has formally informed the Indian government of its decision, the paper said, adding that its proposal to make a 'superior counter offer' was discussed by senior Indian government officials earlier this month.'Consultations did take place on this issue and the committee had finally left it to the ONGC/OVL board to take a commercial call,' a senior government official was quoted as saying when asked to comment on the outcome of the meeting.OVL is the international arm of Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC).Senior ONGC and OVL officials confirmed that a counter-offer is being prepared in consultation with their technical advisor GCA, legal advisor Ashurst and commercial advisor UBS, the paper said.It said OME will be required to pay a 'break fee' of 125 mln usd to PetroKazakhstan if its counterbid is accepted. PetroKazakhstan will in turn pay the money to CNPC.A bid price was not specified; however, it could be measurably better than $55. This sleeper could turn out to be the best risk arbitrage deal of 2005.Rita has certainly rattled the markets. Natural gas traded up to its highest level ever. Heating oil rallied back to over $2 a gallon, and unleaded gas knocked on the $2 a gallon area. Crude rallied over $4 to exceed $67 a barrel. All these escalating energy prices fueled inflation worries, and gold soared $7 an ounce to $470+, its highest price in 18 years.Peter DeLorenzo of Autoextremist.com: "SUV sales aren’t just slowing –they’re crashing to a halt."The NAHB-Wells Fargo housing index fell to 65 in September from 67 in August, the 3rd decline in a row and the lowest reading since July 2003.Delta stated "layoffs will not be small."Bombay’s Sensex crossed 8,400 on the upside.EnCana Corporation's wholly-owned partnership EnCana Midstream & Marketing hassigned an agreement with Methanex Corporation under which Methanexwill provide terminalling services to EnCana at Methanex's terminal facilitiesin Kitimat, British Columbia. EnCana plans to import up to 25,000 barrels perday of offshore diluent to help transport its growing oilsands production innortheast Alberta to markets in the U.S."Diluent is a necessary component for the pipeline transportation ofheavy oil, but Canadian supply is tight due to increased production fromAlberta's vast oilsands. However, cost-effective diluent is readily availableon the world market and this can help us manage transportation costs as weadvance our oilsands growth and integration strategy," said Bill Oliver,EnCana's President of Midstream & Marketing."With access to the ideally-located Kitimat terminal, we expect to beable to import diluent at a competitive cost and move it to where it's mostneeded - in northeast Alberta - then blend it with our growing oilsandsproduction for transport to key U.S. markets," Oliver said.In addition to the projected 25,000 barrels per day of additional supplyto be transported from Kitimat, EnCana is close to completing a newdebutanizer installation at its Empress, Alberta natural gas liquidsextraction plant. Planned to come on stream in October, the debutanizer isexpected to generate about 5,000 barrels per day of diluent. The combined30,000 barrels per day of added diluent expected from these two EnCanainitiatives represents an increase of more than 15 percent to the currentWestern Canadian diluent supply.The Kitimat terminal has an existing dock and tanks at an ice-free port,plus a railway car loading facility for ease of transport to an Albertapipeline connection that feeds EnCana's oilsands operations. EnCana expects tostart importing diluent through Kitimat early in 2006. Under the agreementwith Methanex, EnCana has an option to buy the Kitimat terminal within thefive-year term of the agreement.In conjunction with U.S. oil refiner Valero Energy Corporation, EnCana isconducting a feasibility study into the construction of heavy oil processingfacilities at Valero's existing refinery in Lima, Ohio. The study, which isexpected to be completed over the coming months, will examine the engineeringand economics of EnCana supplying an estimated 200,000 barrels of blendedheavy oil per day to the Lima refinery. The establishment of an offshoresupply of diluent is a key component in EnCana's market integration strategywhich is aimed at maintaining industry-leading low operating costs as thecompany expands in-situ oilsands production to an estimated 200,000 barrelsper day over the next several years.I continue to believe that EnCana offers excellent long-term potential. In my view, the stock should continue to be accumulated during periods of price weakness.John Menzer, President and Chief Executive Officer of Wal-Mart International announced today the purchase of a 33-1/3 percent interest in Central American RetailHolding Company (CARHCO). CARHCO is Central America's largest retailer, with 363 supermarkets and other stores in the following five countries: Guatemala (120), El Salvador(57), Honduras (32), Nicaragua (30) and Costa Rica (124). CARHCO hasapproximately 23,000 associates. Its sales during 2004 were approximately$2.0 billion.Wal-Mart acquired its interest in CARHCO from the Dutch retailer RoyalAhold NV. The purchase price was not disclosed. CARHCO was formed as a jointventure in 2001 with three equal partners: Ahold and two Central Americangroups: the Paiz family, the major shareholders of La Fragua, withheadquarters in Guatemala, and Corporacion de Supermercados Unidos (CSU), withheadquarters in Costa Rica."We are delighted to have this opportunity to invest in the future ofCentral America," said Menzer, adding that the alliance had been underdiscussion for several years. "We are joining a strong partnership that isdelivering outstanding service to customers throughout the region. We believeour investment will add strength to the partnership by helping to keep priceslow for consumers and will offer new opportunities to suppliers in the regionfor additional business development." As part of the agreement, Wal-Mart willacquire additional interests over time in CARHCO, including interests towardachieving majority ownership in the company.The new partnership demonstrates confidence in the region's economicpotential, Menzer said, adding that significant investments are planned in theyears ahead to open new stores and serve customers better with improvedservices, high quality and innovative products and lower prices.In addition, specialized training programs are planned for CARHCOassociates and for suppliers to assist in career and business development. Aconsolidated network of Central American supermarkets will have vast potentialfor product commercialization and regional economic development.The investment in CARHCO is Wal-Mart's first in Central America, althoughthe region is a major source of apparel for the company. Wal-Mart directlyimports more than $350 million in goods from Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador,Nicaragua and Costa Rica. In addition, Wal-Mart purchases goods from manysuppliers with farms and factories in Central America.I have frequently stated that the major future potential for Wal-Mart is its international business. In my view, a long-term holder of WMT shares will be handsomely rewarded.The present price weakness offers an opportunity of uncommon value. That may be a minority view; however, I don’t see anyone creating terrific returns by swimming with the majority.Norsk Hydro’s purchase of Spinnaker works out to paying $41 per barrel for stated reserves. Now that’s putting your money where your mouth is. Compare that with the purchase price per barrel for PKZ’s reserves. I know Kazakhstan is not the Gulf, but maybe it’s underrated as a source of oil and gas reserves.As evening approaches, Rita is currently forecast to become a hurricane rather than a tropical storm. That brings me to a question. Is the panacea to sell protection against the risk of systemic crises and bad outcomes? I’ve been hedging for 40 years. Hedging exposure is a tall order, and especially for supposed sophisticated bankers and hedge funds—many of them just beginning to shave. It might be wise to watch your ass- - -especially during hurricane season.
The Counterbid
9/20/05 The Counterbid
India's ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) has decided to counter China National Petroleum Company's (CNPC's) 4.18 bln usd bid to acquire PetroKazakhstan, India's Financial Express newspaper reported in its online edition.
The counter-offer will be made by ONGC Mittal Energy Ltd (OME), the joint venture floated by OVL and LN Mittal-promoted Mittal Investment Sarl, it said.
ONGC Videsh has formally informed the Indian government of its decision, the paper said, adding that its proposal to make a 'superior counter offer' was discussed by senior Indian government officials earlier this month.
'Consultations did take place on this issue and the committee had finally left it to the ONGC/OVL board to take a commercial call,' a senior government official was quoted as saying when asked to comment on the outcome of the meeting.
OVL is the international arm of Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC).
Senior ONGC and OVL officials confirmed that a counter-offer is being prepared in consultation with their technical advisor GCA, legal advisor Ashurst and commercial advisor UBS, the paper said.
It said OME will be required to pay a 'break fee' of 125 mln usd to PetroKazakhstan if its counterbid is accepted. PetroKazakhstan will in turn pay the money to CNPC.
A bid price was not specified; however, it could be measurably better than $55. This sleeper could turn out to be the best risk arbitrage deal of 2005.
Rita has certainly rattled the markets. Natural gas traded up to its highest level ever. Heating oil rallied back to over $2 a gallon, and unleaded gas knocked on the $2 a gallon area. Crude rallied over $4 to exceed $67 a barrel. All these escalating energy prices fueled inflation worries, and gold soared $7 an ounce to $470+, its highest price in 18 years.
Peter DeLorenzo of Autoextremist.com: "SUV sales aren’t just slowing –they’re crashing to a halt."
The NAHB-Wells Fargo housing index fell to 65 in September from 67 in August, the 3rd decline in a row and the lowest reading since July 2003.
Delta stated "layoffs will not be small."
Bombay’s Sensex crossed 8,400 on the upside.
EnCana Corporation's wholly-owned partnership EnCana Midstream & Marketing has
signed an agreement with Methanex Corporation under which Methanex
will provide terminalling services to EnCana at Methanex's terminal facilities
in Kitimat, British Columbia. EnCana plans to import up to 25,000 barrels per
day of offshore diluent to help transport its growing oilsands production in
northeast Alberta to markets in the U.S.
"Diluent is a necessary component for the pipeline transportation of
heavy oil, but Canadian supply is tight due to increased production from
Alberta's vast oilsands. However, cost-effective diluent is readily available
on the world market and this can help us manage transportation costs as we
advance our oilsands growth and integration strategy," said Bill Oliver,
EnCana's President of Midstream & Marketing.
"With access to the ideally-located Kitimat terminal, we expect to be
able to import diluent at a competitive cost and move it to where it's most
needed - in northeast Alberta - then blend it with our growing oilsands
production for transport to key U.S. markets," Oliver said.
In addition to the projected 25,000 barrels per day of additional supply
to be transported from Kitimat, EnCana is close to completing a new
debutanizer installation at its Empress, Alberta natural gas liquids
extraction plant. Planned to come on stream in October, the debutanizer is
expected to generate about 5,000 barrels per day of diluent. The combined
30,000 barrels per day of added diluent expected from these two EnCana
initiatives represents an increase of more than 15 percent to the current
Western Canadian diluent supply.
The Kitimat terminal has an existing dock and tanks at an ice-free port,
plus a railway car loading facility for ease of transport to an Alberta
pipeline connection that feeds EnCana's oilsands operations. EnCana expects to
start importing diluent through Kitimat early in 2006. Under the agreement
with Methanex, EnCana has an option to buy the Kitimat terminal within the
five-year term of the agreement.
In conjunction with U.S. oil refiner Valero Energy Corporation, EnCana is
conducting a feasibility study into the construction of heavy oil processing
facilities at Valero's existing refinery in Lima, Ohio. The study, which is
expected to be completed over the coming months, will examine the engineering
and economics of EnCana supplying an estimated 200,000 barrels of blended
heavy oil per day to the Lima refinery. The establishment of an offshore
supply of diluent is a key component in EnCana's market integration strategy
which is aimed at maintaining industry-leading low operating costs as the
company expands in-situ oilsands production to an estimated 200,000 barrels
per day over the next several years.
I continue to believe that EnCana offers excellent long-term potential. In my view, the stock should continue to be accumulated during periods of price weakness.
John Menzer, President and Chief Executive Officer of Wal-Mart International announced today the purchase of a 33-1/3 percent interest in Central American Retail
Holding Company (CARHCO). CARHCO is Central America's largest retailer, with 363 supermarkets and other stores in the following five countries: Guatemala (120), El Salvador(57), Honduras (32), Nicaragua (30) and Costa Rica (124). CARHCO has
approximately 23,000 associates. Its sales during 2004 were approximately
$2.0 billion.
Wal-Mart acquired its interest in CARHCO from the Dutch retailer Royal
Ahold NV. The purchase price was not disclosed. CARHCO was formed as a joint
venture in 2001 with three equal partners: Ahold and two Central American
groups: the Paiz family, the major shareholders of La Fragua, with
headquarters in Guatemala, and Corporacion de Supermercados Unidos (CSU), with
headquarters in Costa Rica.
"We are delighted to have this opportunity to invest in the future of
Central America," said Menzer, adding that the alliance had been under
discussion for several years. "We are joining a strong partnership that is
delivering outstanding service to customers throughout the region. We believe
our investment will add strength to the partnership by helping to keep prices
low for consumers and will offer new opportunities to suppliers in the region
for additional business development." As part of the agreement, Wal-Mart will
acquire additional interests over time in CARHCO, including interests toward
achieving majority ownership in the company.
The new partnership demonstrates confidence in the region's economic
potential, Menzer said, adding that significant investments are planned in the
years ahead to open new stores and serve customers better with improved
services, high quality and innovative products and lower prices.
In addition, specialized training programs are planned for CARHCO
associates and for suppliers to assist in career and business development. A
consolidated network of Central American supermarkets will have vast potential
for product commercialization and regional economic development.
The investment in CARHCO is Wal-Mart's first in Central America, although
the region is a major source of apparel for the company. Wal-Mart directly
imports more than $350 million in goods from Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador,
Nicaragua and Costa Rica. In addition, Wal-Mart purchases goods from many
suppliers with farms and factories in Central America.
I have frequently stated that the major future potential for Wal-Mart is its international business. In my view, a long-term holder of WMT shares will be handsomely rewarded.
The present price weakness offers an opportunity of uncommon value. That may be a minority view; however, I don’t see anyone creating terrific returns by swimming with the majority.
Norsk Hydro’s purchase of Spinnaker works out to paying $41 per barrel for stated reserves. Now that’s putting your money where your mouth is. Compare that with the purchase price per barrel for PKZ’s reserves. I know Kazakhstan is not the Gulf, but maybe it’s underrated as a source of oil and gas reserves.
As evening approaches, Rita is currently forecast to become a hurricane rather than a tropical storm. That brings me to a question. Is the panacea to sell protection against the risk of systemic crises and bad outcomes? I’ve been hedging for 40 years. Hedging exposure is a tall order, and especially for supposed sophisticated bankers and hedge funds—many of them just beginning to shave. It might be wise to watch your ass- - -especially during hurricane season.
India's ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) has decided to counter China National Petroleum Company's (CNPC's) 4.18 bln usd bid to acquire PetroKazakhstan, India's Financial Express newspaper reported in its online edition.
The counter-offer will be made by ONGC Mittal Energy Ltd (OME), the joint venture floated by OVL and LN Mittal-promoted Mittal Investment Sarl, it said.
ONGC Videsh has formally informed the Indian government of its decision, the paper said, adding that its proposal to make a 'superior counter offer' was discussed by senior Indian government officials earlier this month.
'Consultations did take place on this issue and the committee had finally left it to the ONGC/OVL board to take a commercial call,' a senior government official was quoted as saying when asked to comment on the outcome of the meeting.
OVL is the international arm of Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC).
Senior ONGC and OVL officials confirmed that a counter-offer is being prepared in consultation with their technical advisor GCA, legal advisor Ashurst and commercial advisor UBS, the paper said.
It said OME will be required to pay a 'break fee' of 125 mln usd to PetroKazakhstan if its counterbid is accepted. PetroKazakhstan will in turn pay the money to CNPC.
A bid price was not specified; however, it could be measurably better than $55. This sleeper could turn out to be the best risk arbitrage deal of 2005.
Rita has certainly rattled the markets. Natural gas traded up to its highest level ever. Heating oil rallied back to over $2 a gallon, and unleaded gas knocked on the $2 a gallon area. Crude rallied over $4 to exceed $67 a barrel. All these escalating energy prices fueled inflation worries, and gold soared $7 an ounce to $470+, its highest price in 18 years.
Peter DeLorenzo of Autoextremist.com: "SUV sales aren’t just slowing –they’re crashing to a halt."
The NAHB-Wells Fargo housing index fell to 65 in September from 67 in August, the 3rd decline in a row and the lowest reading since July 2003.
Delta stated "layoffs will not be small."
Bombay’s Sensex crossed 8,400 on the upside.
EnCana Corporation's wholly-owned partnership EnCana Midstream & Marketing has
signed an agreement with Methanex Corporation under which Methanex
will provide terminalling services to EnCana at Methanex's terminal facilities
in Kitimat, British Columbia. EnCana plans to import up to 25,000 barrels per
day of offshore diluent to help transport its growing oilsands production in
northeast Alberta to markets in the U.S.
"Diluent is a necessary component for the pipeline transportation of
heavy oil, but Canadian supply is tight due to increased production from
Alberta's vast oilsands. However, cost-effective diluent is readily available
on the world market and this can help us manage transportation costs as we
advance our oilsands growth and integration strategy," said Bill Oliver,
EnCana's President of Midstream & Marketing.
"With access to the ideally-located Kitimat terminal, we expect to be
able to import diluent at a competitive cost and move it to where it's most
needed - in northeast Alberta - then blend it with our growing oilsands
production for transport to key U.S. markets," Oliver said.
In addition to the projected 25,000 barrels per day of additional supply
to be transported from Kitimat, EnCana is close to completing a new
debutanizer installation at its Empress, Alberta natural gas liquids
extraction plant. Planned to come on stream in October, the debutanizer is
expected to generate about 5,000 barrels per day of diluent. The combined
30,000 barrels per day of added diluent expected from these two EnCana
initiatives represents an increase of more than 15 percent to the current
Western Canadian diluent supply.
The Kitimat terminal has an existing dock and tanks at an ice-free port,
plus a railway car loading facility for ease of transport to an Alberta
pipeline connection that feeds EnCana's oilsands operations. EnCana expects to
start importing diluent through Kitimat early in 2006. Under the agreement
with Methanex, EnCana has an option to buy the Kitimat terminal within the
five-year term of the agreement.
In conjunction with U.S. oil refiner Valero Energy Corporation, EnCana is
conducting a feasibility study into the construction of heavy oil processing
facilities at Valero's existing refinery in Lima, Ohio. The study, which is
expected to be completed over the coming months, will examine the engineering
and economics of EnCana supplying an estimated 200,000 barrels of blended
heavy oil per day to the Lima refinery. The establishment of an offshore
supply of diluent is a key component in EnCana's market integration strategy
which is aimed at maintaining industry-leading low operating costs as the
company expands in-situ oilsands production to an estimated 200,000 barrels
per day over the next several years.
I continue to believe that EnCana offers excellent long-term potential. In my view, the stock should continue to be accumulated during periods of price weakness.
John Menzer, President and Chief Executive Officer of Wal-Mart International announced today the purchase of a 33-1/3 percent interest in Central American Retail
Holding Company (CARHCO). CARHCO is Central America's largest retailer, with 363 supermarkets and other stores in the following five countries: Guatemala (120), El Salvador(57), Honduras (32), Nicaragua (30) and Costa Rica (124). CARHCO has
approximately 23,000 associates. Its sales during 2004 were approximately
$2.0 billion.
Wal-Mart acquired its interest in CARHCO from the Dutch retailer Royal
Ahold NV. The purchase price was not disclosed. CARHCO was formed as a joint
venture in 2001 with three equal partners: Ahold and two Central American
groups: the Paiz family, the major shareholders of La Fragua, with
headquarters in Guatemala, and Corporacion de Supermercados Unidos (CSU), with
headquarters in Costa Rica.
"We are delighted to have this opportunity to invest in the future of
Central America," said Menzer, adding that the alliance had been under
discussion for several years. "We are joining a strong partnership that is
delivering outstanding service to customers throughout the region. We believe
our investment will add strength to the partnership by helping to keep prices
low for consumers and will offer new opportunities to suppliers in the region
for additional business development." As part of the agreement, Wal-Mart will
acquire additional interests over time in CARHCO, including interests toward
achieving majority ownership in the company.
The new partnership demonstrates confidence in the region's economic
potential, Menzer said, adding that significant investments are planned in the
years ahead to open new stores and serve customers better with improved
services, high quality and innovative products and lower prices.
In addition, specialized training programs are planned for CARHCO
associates and for suppliers to assist in career and business development. A
consolidated network of Central American supermarkets will have vast potential
for product commercialization and regional economic development.
The investment in CARHCO is Wal-Mart's first in Central America, although
the region is a major source of apparel for the company. Wal-Mart directly
imports more than $350 million in goods from Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador,
Nicaragua and Costa Rica. In addition, Wal-Mart purchases goods from many
suppliers with farms and factories in Central America.
I have frequently stated that the major future potential for Wal-Mart is its international business. In my view, a long-term holder of WMT shares will be handsomely rewarded.
The present price weakness offers an opportunity of uncommon value. That may be a minority view; however, I don’t see anyone creating terrific returns by swimming with the majority.
Norsk Hydro’s purchase of Spinnaker works out to paying $41 per barrel for stated reserves. Now that’s putting your money where your mouth is. Compare that with the purchase price per barrel for PKZ’s reserves. I know Kazakhstan is not the Gulf, but maybe it’s underrated as a source of oil and gas reserves.
As evening approaches, Rita is currently forecast to become a hurricane rather than a tropical storm. That brings me to a question. Is the panacea to sell protection against the risk of systemic crises and bad outcomes? I’ve been hedging for 40 years. Hedging exposure is a tall order, and especially for supposed sophisticated bankers and hedge funds—many of them just beginning to shave. It might be wise to watch your ass- - -especially during hurricane season.
Monday, September 19, 2005
Questions
9/19/05 Questions
Will the Fed raise rates this week?
If the Fed does raise rates, what impact might there be on the slope of the yield curve?
Will Katrina help to move rates higher than originally forecast?
When will the U.S. and China finalize an agreement on textiles?
How do companies place orders for Chinese textiles when they don’t know whether the order can be filled?
Have you been following tropical storm Rita? Those living in the Florida Keys have been asked to evacuate.
Will Rita become a hurricane and damage the refineries in the Gulf along the southern Texas coastline?
Lloyd Alexander: "We learn more by looking for the answer to a question and not finding it than we do from learning the answer itself."
Have you ever heard of Google’s G drive? It’s not a drive honing in on the G spot. Rather, it is a drive that will facilitate the storage of information on Google servers.
Did you know that Google is looking at having its own WiFi service that would provide its own nationwide ISP?
Is Google TV in the works?
Isn’t it a long way for Norsk Hydro to be buying Spinnaker Exploration (with operations in the Gulf) and then pay $65.50 in cash per share? Does the purchase price provide any indication of future price spikes in natural gas?
How many more jobs will Siemens eliminate in Germany after the announcement to cut 2,400 positions at their computer services unit?
Who won the election in Germany?
With the current federal government spending spree, how long will it be before the Congress is asked to vote on authorizing the raising of the ceiling on the national debt level?
Have you considered going long gold and shorting crude oil as a hedge?
What percentage of the Gulf coast evacuees will move permanently to other areas?
Friedrich Nietzche: "What if a demon were to creep after you one night, in your loneliest loneliness, and say, 'This life which you live must be lived by you once again and innumerable times more; and every pain and joy and thought and sigh must come again to you, all in the same sequence. The eternal hourglass will again and again be turned and you with it, dust of the dust!' Would you throw yourself down and gnash your teeth and curse that demon? Or would you answer, 'Never have I heard anything more divine'?"
Why has the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes nearly doubled around the globe in the last 35 years?
Starbucks brought music to its 40 million weekly customers. Will books be the next offering on the list?
Rainer Maria Rilke: "Have patience with everything that remains unsolved in your heart. Try to love the questions themselves, like locked rooms and like books written in a foreign language. Do not now look for the answers. They cannot now be given to you because you could not live them. It is a question of experiencing everything. At present you need to live the question. Perhaps you will gradually, without even noticing it, find yourself experiencing the answer, some distant day."
Will the Fed raise rates this week?
If the Fed does raise rates, what impact might there be on the slope of the yield curve?
Will Katrina help to move rates higher than originally forecast?
When will the U.S. and China finalize an agreement on textiles?
How do companies place orders for Chinese textiles when they don’t know whether the order can be filled?
Have you been following tropical storm Rita? Those living in the Florida Keys have been asked to evacuate.
Will Rita become a hurricane and damage the refineries in the Gulf along the southern Texas coastline?
Lloyd Alexander: "We learn more by looking for the answer to a question and not finding it than we do from learning the answer itself."
Have you ever heard of Google’s G drive? It’s not a drive honing in on the G spot. Rather, it is a drive that will facilitate the storage of information on Google servers.
Did you know that Google is looking at having its own WiFi service that would provide its own nationwide ISP?
Is Google TV in the works?
Isn’t it a long way for Norsk Hydro to be buying Spinnaker Exploration (with operations in the Gulf) and then pay $65.50 in cash per share? Does the purchase price provide any indication of future price spikes in natural gas?
How many more jobs will Siemens eliminate in Germany after the announcement to cut 2,400 positions at their computer services unit?
Who won the election in Germany?
With the current federal government spending spree, how long will it be before the Congress is asked to vote on authorizing the raising of the ceiling on the national debt level?
Have you considered going long gold and shorting crude oil as a hedge?
What percentage of the Gulf coast evacuees will move permanently to other areas?
Friedrich Nietzche: "What if a demon were to creep after you one night, in your loneliest loneliness, and say, 'This life which you live must be lived by you once again and innumerable times more; and every pain and joy and thought and sigh must come again to you, all in the same sequence. The eternal hourglass will again and again be turned and you with it, dust of the dust!' Would you throw yourself down and gnash your teeth and curse that demon? Or would you answer, 'Never have I heard anything more divine'?"
Why has the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes nearly doubled around the globe in the last 35 years?
Starbucks brought music to its 40 million weekly customers. Will books be the next offering on the list?
Rainer Maria Rilke: "Have patience with everything that remains unsolved in your heart. Try to love the questions themselves, like locked rooms and like books written in a foreign language. Do not now look for the answers. They cannot now be given to you because you could not live them. It is a question of experiencing everything. At present you need to live the question. Perhaps you will gradually, without even noticing it, find yourself experiencing the answer, some distant day."
Sunday, September 18, 2005
Stark Comparison
9/18/05 Stark Comparison
According to Tang Xu, head of the central bank’s research bureau in China, the country’s foreign exchange reserves rose by at least $29 billion in July, and thus its end-July reserves exceeded $740 billion. He stated the change in August should be normal, and therefore, heading into September, China’s foreign exchange reserves in all likelihood exceeded $765 billion. By comparison, the U.S. current account deficit amounted to $394 billion in the first six months of 2005, and is expected to approach $820 billion for the entire year. There are those who state there is no reason to be concerned, and cite capital flows into the U.S. in the month of July amounting to $87.4 billion. The problem is the average monthly capital inflow for the past 12 months is less than $87.4 billion, and there is no cushion. It’s a bit like the present savings rate in the U.S. It too has dwindled to nothing.
Robert McHugh: "There is also a Fibonacci price relationship between the stock market crashes of 1929, 1987, and now September 2005."
As of September 16, a total of 1,898 U.S. soldiers had died in Iraq since our invasion of March 2003. With Katrina getting all the news, I wanted to make certain our memory was able to walk and chew gum at the same time.
"Beware the leader who bangs the drums of war in order to whip the citizenry into a patriotic fervor, for patriotism is indeed a double-edged sword. It both emboldens the blood, just as it narrows the mind. And when the drums of war have reached a fever pitch and the blood boils with hate and the mind has closed, the leader will have no need in seizing the rights of the citizenry. Rather, the citizenry, infused with fear and blinded with patriotism, will offer up all of their rights unto the leader, and gladly so. How do I know? For this is what I have done! And I am Caesar."
There is increased speculation that Tesco might be interested in Albertson’s. Timing is everything. Reuter's in London just reported that Tesco has sent an in-house team to the U.S. to consider a bid for Albertson's.
As an aside, Albertson's operates 120 stand-alone supermarkets, 331 stand-alone drug stores and 320 combination supermarkets and drugstores throughout California. I would not be surprised if Raley’s of Northern California and/or Stater Bros. of Southern California would have an interest in these Albertson’s California operations.
Thomas Jefferson: "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them, will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
Siemen’s will cut 1,290 jobs.
There is a widening gap between rural inland China and the booming coastal cities in that country.
Kazakhstan Prime Minister Daniyal Akhmetov, visiting Atyrau oblast, answered a number of questions. Concerning the sale of PetroKazakhstan shares, he stated, we are the country with open market economy. Kazakhstan does not interfere into the process of selling. They are realized at Toronto stock market. One who pays more will own PetroKazakhstan company. We will demonstrate the economic world we hold to sound economy and have no political interests. We want the companies, functioning in Kazakhstan, to be comfortable, Daniyal Akhmetov pointed out.
Over the past year, the U.S. national debt has been increasing at an average of $1.66 billion per day, and now totals $7.966 trillion.
For those unfamiliar with Tesco, the company currently operates in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Japan, Malaysia, Poland, Republic of Ireland, Slovakia, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkeyand the UK. At the end of their last financial year they had a total of 2,334 stores, with 49.1 million square feet of sales area. Tesco had 1,780 stores in the UK, with 24.2 million square feet of sales area and 554 stores in their international operations with 24.9 million square feet of sales area. In sum, the company has no operations in the U.S. and is large enough to acquire the whole of Albertson's. The Sunday Times reveals that Tesco has assembled a land bank of more than 185 development sites across the UK which could create 4.5m sq ft of new supermarket space. Tesco’s land bank is bigger than that of Asda, Sainsbury and Morrison combined.
Frank Zappa: "It would be easier to pay off the national debt overnight than to neutralize the long-range effects of our national stupidity." In both cases, it sounds like daunting heavy lifting.
Garrison Keillor: "One day Donald Trump will discover that he is owned by Lutheran Brotherhood and must re-negotiate his debt load with a committee of silent Norwegians who don't understand why anyone would pay more than $120.00 for a suit."
According to Tang Xu, head of the central bank’s research bureau in China, the country’s foreign exchange reserves rose by at least $29 billion in July, and thus its end-July reserves exceeded $740 billion. He stated the change in August should be normal, and therefore, heading into September, China’s foreign exchange reserves in all likelihood exceeded $765 billion. By comparison, the U.S. current account deficit amounted to $394 billion in the first six months of 2005, and is expected to approach $820 billion for the entire year. There are those who state there is no reason to be concerned, and cite capital flows into the U.S. in the month of July amounting to $87.4 billion. The problem is the average monthly capital inflow for the past 12 months is less than $87.4 billion, and there is no cushion. It’s a bit like the present savings rate in the U.S. It too has dwindled to nothing.
Robert McHugh: "There is also a Fibonacci price relationship between the stock market crashes of 1929, 1987, and now September 2005."
As of September 16, a total of 1,898 U.S. soldiers had died in Iraq since our invasion of March 2003. With Katrina getting all the news, I wanted to make certain our memory was able to walk and chew gum at the same time.
"Beware the leader who bangs the drums of war in order to whip the citizenry into a patriotic fervor, for patriotism is indeed a double-edged sword. It both emboldens the blood, just as it narrows the mind. And when the drums of war have reached a fever pitch and the blood boils with hate and the mind has closed, the leader will have no need in seizing the rights of the citizenry. Rather, the citizenry, infused with fear and blinded with patriotism, will offer up all of their rights unto the leader, and gladly so. How do I know? For this is what I have done! And I am Caesar."
There is increased speculation that Tesco might be interested in Albertson’s. Timing is everything. Reuter's in London just reported that Tesco has sent an in-house team to the U.S. to consider a bid for Albertson's.
As an aside, Albertson's operates 120 stand-alone supermarkets, 331 stand-alone drug stores and 320 combination supermarkets and drugstores throughout California. I would not be surprised if Raley’s of Northern California and/or Stater Bros. of Southern California would have an interest in these Albertson’s California operations.
Thomas Jefferson: "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them, will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
Siemen’s will cut 1,290 jobs.
There is a widening gap between rural inland China and the booming coastal cities in that country.
Kazakhstan Prime Minister Daniyal Akhmetov, visiting Atyrau oblast, answered a number of questions. Concerning the sale of PetroKazakhstan shares, he stated, we are the country with open market economy. Kazakhstan does not interfere into the process of selling. They are realized at Toronto stock market. One who pays more will own PetroKazakhstan company. We will demonstrate the economic world we hold to sound economy and have no political interests. We want the companies, functioning in Kazakhstan, to be comfortable, Daniyal Akhmetov pointed out.
Over the past year, the U.S. national debt has been increasing at an average of $1.66 billion per day, and now totals $7.966 trillion.
For those unfamiliar with Tesco, the company currently operates in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Japan, Malaysia, Poland, Republic of Ireland, Slovakia, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkeyand the UK. At the end of their last financial year they had a total of 2,334 stores, with 49.1 million square feet of sales area. Tesco had 1,780 stores in the UK, with 24.2 million square feet of sales area and 554 stores in their international operations with 24.9 million square feet of sales area. In sum, the company has no operations in the U.S. and is large enough to acquire the whole of Albertson's. The Sunday Times reveals that Tesco has assembled a land bank of more than 185 development sites across the UK which could create 4.5m sq ft of new supermarket space. Tesco’s land bank is bigger than that of Asda, Sainsbury and Morrison combined.
Frank Zappa: "It would be easier to pay off the national debt overnight than to neutralize the long-range effects of our national stupidity." In both cases, it sounds like daunting heavy lifting.
Garrison Keillor: "One day Donald Trump will discover that he is owned by Lutheran Brotherhood and must re-negotiate his debt load with a committee of silent Norwegians who don't understand why anyone would pay more than $120.00 for a suit."
Saturday, September 17, 2005
Surveys
9/17/05 Surveys
A new Wall Street Journal Online/Harris Interactive Personal Finance Poll finds that nearly one in five(19%) U.S. adults who purchased a home within the last three years for their primary residence say they spent above their suggested price range, while two-thirds (67%) stayed within their price range and 12% were below their price range. When obtaining a mortgage for their new home, recent homebuyers who used a mortgage broker, direct lender or another source were nearly three times more likely to obtain a fixed-rate mortgage (72%) than an adjustable-rate mortgage (26%), and fully a third (34%) opted for a creative or option mortgage.
The third quarter "CFO Outlook Survey" of 315 CFOs revealed that 46% stated their companies are absorbing most or all of the additional energy costs, while 7% are passing along most of the increased cost to their customers. Interestingly, the predominantly service companies that make up 29% of the survey stated they are not directly affected by the high oil prices. The survey indicated that hardest hit by the rising oil prices are the manufacturing companies where 60% stated they are absorbing the cost and another 28% are absorbing half and raising prices to cover the other half. Burton Rothberg, assistant professor of accounting at Baruch College, observed "as a result, we can expect corporate earnings or capital spending to be affected, at least until prices to customers are increased. Consumers, who are already bearing the brunt of high oil prices at the gas pump and bracing for higher home heating costs, will have more bad news down the road if and when companies decide to pass along more of the costs."
Google, the most-used Internet search engine, may consider making a bid for America Online to keep the company from switching to Microsoft Corp.'s search technology, a Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst said Friday. Google, which receives 12 percent of its sales from advertising and other fees generated by America Online, may make a bid to preserve that income, Merrill's Lauren Rich Fine wrote in a note to clients Friday. Losing AOL as a client would cut Google's earnings per share by 5 percent to 10 percent, she said.
Less than half of the Hurricane Katrina evacuees living in shelters in the Houston area want to go home again, according to a poll by the Washington Post and the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation. Forty-three percent said they want to move back home when they can. About the same number of evacuees -- 44 percent -- said they want to relocate, and most of them wanted to stay in Houston, said the poll published Friday.
The fifth round of tariff talks between the U.S. and China are scheduled in DC for 9/26 and 9/27. Meanwhile, Deputy Secretary of State Zoellick will give a major policy address on trade with China on Wednesday, Sept. 21.
Bill Bonner: "A more perfect 'nothing' is gold. It is a sort of anti-asset. It pays no interest. It issues no press releases. It offers no guidance on quarterly earnings; it has no earnings. It does no mergers, no acquisitions and it never restructures. It hires no celebrity CEOs. It offers no discounts. It makes no excuses. But it is the thing that goes up when other assets, including dollars, go down. Gold is as close to 'nothing' as you can get. Buy it."
I would like to come back to a discussion I initiated in 1998. Between then and 2001, you probably got tired of me writing about naked puts. Naturally, I couldn’t give a crap whether you got tired or not. Companies like Microsoft took billions into their income statement by selling naked puts. As the stock rose, the company booked the put premium as income. If the stock declined, then the company would be put those shares and use the shares for their stock option program. As long as the market didn’t get creamed, everything was just dandy. As we know, in 2000 the Nasdaq got decimated. This brings me to today. A very dangerous problem is developing. The markets have been range-bound for quite some time. This pancake-like look has been a picnic for those naked put sellers, and this time it is not being effectuated by the Microsofts of the world. It’s the hedge funds. Should an unforeseen jolt take place to the markets, the pancake would crumble. Who would stand ready to purchase what had been put? When it was Microsoft, there was no worry. They had over $20 billion in cash at all times. You had better hope that the "IHOP Market" continues. As an innocent bystander, you could get creamed.
Doug Noland: "Yet, fundamentally, it is the perception of relative safety and liquidity - with respect to the new financial instruments, financing arrangements and evolving markets - that is most culpable for the proclivity of securitization issuance to go to gross excess. This dynamic is, today, in extraordinary force throughout Wall Street "structured finance." As I have noted many times previously, The Moneyness of Credit – the capacity for creating Credit instruments with the perceived attributes of safety, stores of nominal value, and near-absolute liquidity – is an invaluable analytical tool, as we grasp for clearer understanding of the current peculiar inflationary boom. The "Moneyness" dynamic is especially precarious with regard to Wall Street finance. The greater the inflation of issuance, the seemingly more stable the underlying (inflated) collateral values, the more abundant general marketplace liquidity, and the more ingrained the market’s perception of the safety, soundness and liquidity of "structured finance." Yet, fundamentally, it is the perception of relative safety and liquidity - with respect to the new financial instruments, financing arrangements and evolving markets - that is most culpable for the proclivity of securitization issuance to go to gross excess. This dynamic is, today, in extraordinary force throughout Wall Street "structured finance."
Confucius: "The superior man, when resting in safety, does not forget that danger may come. When in a state of security he does not forget the possibility of ruin. When all is orderly, he does not forget that disorder may come. Thus his person is not endangered, and his States and all their clans are preserved."
The University of Michigan September Consumer Sentiment Survey plunged 14% from August to a 13-year low, while consumers’ inflation expectations rose to a 4-year high. It was not surprising that, with those fears of rising inflation, that gold would rise to a 17-year high of $463.30 an ounce. As thoughts of inflation imbued the grey matter of the Fed members, the yield on the 10-year treasury bonds rose to 4.27% and the spread with the 2-year widened to 30 basis points.
On the week, crude declined a dollar a barrel to $63.
At $43.87, shares of Wal-Mart hit a 3-year low, and they are approaching a 5-year low. Between 1999 and the present, the stock has traded in a range of $40 to $70, while the sales and earnings have been rising. Of the stocks in the Dow, can you give me a better long-term risk/reward?
China already accounts for 6% of world exports and its potential to supply the globe with low-cost manufactured goods has caused tensions in the global trading system, exemplified by the recent "bra wars" row. The OECD said China's share was on course to rise to 10% by 2010, by which time it would overtake the US. Despite 25 years of gross domestic product (GDP) growth at an annual rate of more than 9%, China is not expected to slow in the near future. The thinktank predicted that the world's most populous nation would overtake Britain, France and Italy to become the fourth largest economy within five years.
Lenny Bruce: " Take away the right to say "f**k" and you take away the right to say "f**k the government!"
A new Wall Street Journal Online/Harris Interactive Personal Finance Poll finds that nearly one in five(19%) U.S. adults who purchased a home within the last three years for their primary residence say they spent above their suggested price range, while two-thirds (67%) stayed within their price range and 12% were below their price range. When obtaining a mortgage for their new home, recent homebuyers who used a mortgage broker, direct lender or another source were nearly three times more likely to obtain a fixed-rate mortgage (72%) than an adjustable-rate mortgage (26%), and fully a third (34%) opted for a creative or option mortgage.
The third quarter "CFO Outlook Survey" of 315 CFOs revealed that 46% stated their companies are absorbing most or all of the additional energy costs, while 7% are passing along most of the increased cost to their customers. Interestingly, the predominantly service companies that make up 29% of the survey stated they are not directly affected by the high oil prices. The survey indicated that hardest hit by the rising oil prices are the manufacturing companies where 60% stated they are absorbing the cost and another 28% are absorbing half and raising prices to cover the other half. Burton Rothberg, assistant professor of accounting at Baruch College, observed "as a result, we can expect corporate earnings or capital spending to be affected, at least until prices to customers are increased. Consumers, who are already bearing the brunt of high oil prices at the gas pump and bracing for higher home heating costs, will have more bad news down the road if and when companies decide to pass along more of the costs."
Google, the most-used Internet search engine, may consider making a bid for America Online to keep the company from switching to Microsoft Corp.'s search technology, a Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst said Friday. Google, which receives 12 percent of its sales from advertising and other fees generated by America Online, may make a bid to preserve that income, Merrill's Lauren Rich Fine wrote in a note to clients Friday. Losing AOL as a client would cut Google's earnings per share by 5 percent to 10 percent, she said.
Less than half of the Hurricane Katrina evacuees living in shelters in the Houston area want to go home again, according to a poll by the Washington Post and the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation. Forty-three percent said they want to move back home when they can. About the same number of evacuees -- 44 percent -- said they want to relocate, and most of them wanted to stay in Houston, said the poll published Friday.
The fifth round of tariff talks between the U.S. and China are scheduled in DC for 9/26 and 9/27. Meanwhile, Deputy Secretary of State Zoellick will give a major policy address on trade with China on Wednesday, Sept. 21.
Bill Bonner: "A more perfect 'nothing' is gold. It is a sort of anti-asset. It pays no interest. It issues no press releases. It offers no guidance on quarterly earnings; it has no earnings. It does no mergers, no acquisitions and it never restructures. It hires no celebrity CEOs. It offers no discounts. It makes no excuses. But it is the thing that goes up when other assets, including dollars, go down. Gold is as close to 'nothing' as you can get. Buy it."
I would like to come back to a discussion I initiated in 1998. Between then and 2001, you probably got tired of me writing about naked puts. Naturally, I couldn’t give a crap whether you got tired or not. Companies like Microsoft took billions into their income statement by selling naked puts. As the stock rose, the company booked the put premium as income. If the stock declined, then the company would be put those shares and use the shares for their stock option program. As long as the market didn’t get creamed, everything was just dandy. As we know, in 2000 the Nasdaq got decimated. This brings me to today. A very dangerous problem is developing. The markets have been range-bound for quite some time. This pancake-like look has been a picnic for those naked put sellers, and this time it is not being effectuated by the Microsofts of the world. It’s the hedge funds. Should an unforeseen jolt take place to the markets, the pancake would crumble. Who would stand ready to purchase what had been put? When it was Microsoft, there was no worry. They had over $20 billion in cash at all times. You had better hope that the "IHOP Market" continues. As an innocent bystander, you could get creamed.
Doug Noland: "Yet, fundamentally, it is the perception of relative safety and liquidity - with respect to the new financial instruments, financing arrangements and evolving markets - that is most culpable for the proclivity of securitization issuance to go to gross excess. This dynamic is, today, in extraordinary force throughout Wall Street "structured finance." As I have noted many times previously, The Moneyness of Credit – the capacity for creating Credit instruments with the perceived attributes of safety, stores of nominal value, and near-absolute liquidity – is an invaluable analytical tool, as we grasp for clearer understanding of the current peculiar inflationary boom. The "Moneyness" dynamic is especially precarious with regard to Wall Street finance. The greater the inflation of issuance, the seemingly more stable the underlying (inflated) collateral values, the more abundant general marketplace liquidity, and the more ingrained the market’s perception of the safety, soundness and liquidity of "structured finance." Yet, fundamentally, it is the perception of relative safety and liquidity - with respect to the new financial instruments, financing arrangements and evolving markets - that is most culpable for the proclivity of securitization issuance to go to gross excess. This dynamic is, today, in extraordinary force throughout Wall Street "structured finance."
Confucius: "The superior man, when resting in safety, does not forget that danger may come. When in a state of security he does not forget the possibility of ruin. When all is orderly, he does not forget that disorder may come. Thus his person is not endangered, and his States and all their clans are preserved."
The University of Michigan September Consumer Sentiment Survey plunged 14% from August to a 13-year low, while consumers’ inflation expectations rose to a 4-year high. It was not surprising that, with those fears of rising inflation, that gold would rise to a 17-year high of $463.30 an ounce. As thoughts of inflation imbued the grey matter of the Fed members, the yield on the 10-year treasury bonds rose to 4.27% and the spread with the 2-year widened to 30 basis points.
On the week, crude declined a dollar a barrel to $63.
At $43.87, shares of Wal-Mart hit a 3-year low, and they are approaching a 5-year low. Between 1999 and the present, the stock has traded in a range of $40 to $70, while the sales and earnings have been rising. Of the stocks in the Dow, can you give me a better long-term risk/reward?
China already accounts for 6% of world exports and its potential to supply the globe with low-cost manufactured goods has caused tensions in the global trading system, exemplified by the recent "bra wars" row. The OECD said China's share was on course to rise to 10% by 2010, by which time it would overtake the US. Despite 25 years of gross domestic product (GDP) growth at an annual rate of more than 9%, China is not expected to slow in the near future. The thinktank predicted that the world's most populous nation would overtake Britain, France and Italy to become the fourth largest economy within five years.
Lenny Bruce: " Take away the right to say "f**k" and you take away the right to say "f**k the government!"
Thursday, September 15, 2005
The Outlook
9/16/05 The Outlook
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia yesterday issued the following:
"The pace of activity in the region's manufacturing sector slowed in
September, according to firms polled for this month's survey. Indicators for
general activity and new orders fell substantially from their readings in
August and suggest little to no growth this month. Shipments increased but at
a slower pace, manufacturing employment and work hours were virtually steady, and firms again reported an increase in industrial prices. The region's
manufacturing executives were significantly less optimistic about future
activity than in August."
George Carlin: "Fighting for peace is like screwing for virginity"
With home affordability historically high, an oversupply of housing units and lack of rental demand have combined to weaken the REITs market on a fundamental level, says Standard & Poor's in a special report to be published on Monday, September 19. However, rising interest rates and/or a decline in housing prices could dramatically improve the REIT outlook as new households and even some existing homeowners gravitate toward rental housing. The report is the cover story in CreditWeek, the
investment research leader's weekly magazine on credit risk.
Andrew Liveris, Chief Executive Officer of The Dow Chemical Company, warned today that the persistently high price of oil and natural gas, exacerbated in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, poses a severe threat to the long-term health of the chemical industry in the United States. "For two and a half years or more our industry has done all that it can to mitigate the impact of escalating feedstock and energy costs, which have been particularly severe in relation to US natural gas," said Liveris.
"We've been sharply focused on reducing operating expenses, improving
energy efficiency, increasing productivity and generally controlling those
things we are able to control in an effort to address this unprecedented
challenge."But right now, with oil and natural gas prices at astronomically high levels and showing no signs of receding, the US chemical industry faces the very real risk of being unable to invest in its own future in this country."
Rep. Ron Paul: "Many reasons have been given for why we fight and our youth must die in Iraq. The reasons now given for why we must continue this war bear no resemblance to the reasons given to gain the support of the American people and the United States Congress prior to our invasion in March of 2003. Before the war, we were told we faced an imminent threat to our national security from Saddam Hussein. This rationale, now proven grossly mistaken, has been changed. Now we’re told we must honor the fallen by "completing the mission."
9/16 BusinessWeek: "Microsoft has lost several key executives in recent months, many to upstart rivals. Google has picked off 100 former Microsofties alone. Why? Because employees say the software giant has slowed as it's moved into middle age. The challenges: morale, bureaucracy and impediments to innovation. If Microsoft can't fix the problem, it could find itself in the same situation as IBM did when Microsoft was the hot upstart on the scene two decades ago."
Ken Simonson, chief economist of the Associated General Contractors of America: "There are 700,000 construction businesses in the U.S., which employ 7.2 million. The value of construction, measuring payroll and materials, is $1.1 trillion, or 8.5% of annual gross domestic product."
The agency that insures pensions for millions of workers may have a shortfall of almost $87 billion during the next 10 years, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said. The deficit at the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. (PBGC) raises "the specter of a sharply reduced pension for some insured workers or the need to provide taxpayers' dollars to the PBGC," the budget office said in a report yesterday. When was the last time a government agency correctly forecast a deficit?
Wilbur L. Ross Jr. Ross has bought a majority of the $750 million in bank debt of Collins & Aikman, a bankrupt maker of carpets, consoles and other interior parts. That debt could be converted to stock and a significant ownership of the company when it emerges from bankruptcy protection.
Ross said Thursday that he is interested in buying Delphi Corp., the nation's largest auto supplier, if it were put up for sale or files for bankruptcy, which it has said repeatedly that it might do.
Real average weekly earnings fell by 0.5 percent from July to August after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. A 0.1 percent increase in average hourly earnings was more than offset by a 0.6 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Average weekly hours were unchanged. If you believe the consumer will continue his/her spending ways way into the future, forget it. When the equity line of credit on the home runs out, the spending spiggot will be turned off.
Swiss scientists have developed a vaccine that blocks the pleasure factor in smoking leaving the smoker with no kick, reports news portal Annanova.The anti-nicotine injection, CYT002 - NicQb, patented by Swiss pharmaceutical firm Cytos, works by building antibodies in the blood that stop nicotine from getting to the brain, it said. The vaccine has so far proved to be successful as it has already passed one preliminary test. Forty percent of the participating smokers quit within nine months since being injected with the drug. University of Lausanne professor Jacques Cornuz, who helped develop the anti-nicotine injection, said: "The results have exceeded our expectations." Before the injection the participants had all smoked between 10 and 40 cigarettes a day. The vaccine is expected to be in the market by 2010. There are about 1.3 billion smokers worldwide.
The FTSEurofirst 300 index of leading European shares rose 0.6 percent to 1,214.35 points, its highest intra-day level since May 2002, and the DJ Stoxx basic resources index rose 1.9 percent to a new all-time high of 355.9. At $459 an ounce, gold closed at a 17-year high and Goldcorp at $20+ closed at a new all-time high.
Northwest Airlines will cut 400 pilots.
Jon Stewart: "This is inarguably a failure of leadership from the top of the federal government. Remember when Bill Clinton went out with Monica Lewinsky. That was inarguably a failure of judgment at the top. Democrats had to come out and risk losing credibility if they did not condemn Bill Clinton for his behavior. I believe Republicans are in the same position right now. And I will say this: Hurricane Katrina is George Bush's Monica Lewinsky. The only difference is that tens of thousands of people weren't stranded in Monica Lewinsky's vagina."
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia yesterday issued the following:
"The pace of activity in the region's manufacturing sector slowed in
September, according to firms polled for this month's survey. Indicators for
general activity and new orders fell substantially from their readings in
August and suggest little to no growth this month. Shipments increased but at
a slower pace, manufacturing employment and work hours were virtually steady, and firms again reported an increase in industrial prices. The region's
manufacturing executives were significantly less optimistic about future
activity than in August."
George Carlin: "Fighting for peace is like screwing for virginity"
With home affordability historically high, an oversupply of housing units and lack of rental demand have combined to weaken the REITs market on a fundamental level, says Standard & Poor's in a special report to be published on Monday, September 19. However, rising interest rates and/or a decline in housing prices could dramatically improve the REIT outlook as new households and even some existing homeowners gravitate toward rental housing. The report is the cover story in CreditWeek, the
investment research leader's weekly magazine on credit risk.
Andrew Liveris, Chief Executive Officer of The Dow Chemical Company, warned today that the persistently high price of oil and natural gas, exacerbated in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, poses a severe threat to the long-term health of the chemical industry in the United States. "For two and a half years or more our industry has done all that it can to mitigate the impact of escalating feedstock and energy costs, which have been particularly severe in relation to US natural gas," said Liveris.
"We've been sharply focused on reducing operating expenses, improving
energy efficiency, increasing productivity and generally controlling those
things we are able to control in an effort to address this unprecedented
challenge."But right now, with oil and natural gas prices at astronomically high levels and showing no signs of receding, the US chemical industry faces the very real risk of being unable to invest in its own future in this country."
Rep. Ron Paul: "Many reasons have been given for why we fight and our youth must die in Iraq. The reasons now given for why we must continue this war bear no resemblance to the reasons given to gain the support of the American people and the United States Congress prior to our invasion in March of 2003. Before the war, we were told we faced an imminent threat to our national security from Saddam Hussein. This rationale, now proven grossly mistaken, has been changed. Now we’re told we must honor the fallen by "completing the mission."
9/16 BusinessWeek: "Microsoft has lost several key executives in recent months, many to upstart rivals. Google has picked off 100 former Microsofties alone. Why? Because employees say the software giant has slowed as it's moved into middle age. The challenges: morale, bureaucracy and impediments to innovation. If Microsoft can't fix the problem, it could find itself in the same situation as IBM did when Microsoft was the hot upstart on the scene two decades ago."
Ken Simonson, chief economist of the Associated General Contractors of America: "There are 700,000 construction businesses in the U.S., which employ 7.2 million. The value of construction, measuring payroll and materials, is $1.1 trillion, or 8.5% of annual gross domestic product."
The agency that insures pensions for millions of workers may have a shortfall of almost $87 billion during the next 10 years, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said. The deficit at the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. (PBGC) raises "the specter of a sharply reduced pension for some insured workers or the need to provide taxpayers' dollars to the PBGC," the budget office said in a report yesterday. When was the last time a government agency correctly forecast a deficit?
Wilbur L. Ross Jr. Ross has bought a majority of the $750 million in bank debt of Collins & Aikman, a bankrupt maker of carpets, consoles and other interior parts. That debt could be converted to stock and a significant ownership of the company when it emerges from bankruptcy protection.
Ross said Thursday that he is interested in buying Delphi Corp., the nation's largest auto supplier, if it were put up for sale or files for bankruptcy, which it has said repeatedly that it might do.
Real average weekly earnings fell by 0.5 percent from July to August after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. A 0.1 percent increase in average hourly earnings was more than offset by a 0.6 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Average weekly hours were unchanged. If you believe the consumer will continue his/her spending ways way into the future, forget it. When the equity line of credit on the home runs out, the spending spiggot will be turned off.
Swiss scientists have developed a vaccine that blocks the pleasure factor in smoking leaving the smoker with no kick, reports news portal Annanova.The anti-nicotine injection, CYT002 - NicQb, patented by Swiss pharmaceutical firm Cytos, works by building antibodies in the blood that stop nicotine from getting to the brain, it said. The vaccine has so far proved to be successful as it has already passed one preliminary test. Forty percent of the participating smokers quit within nine months since being injected with the drug. University of Lausanne professor Jacques Cornuz, who helped develop the anti-nicotine injection, said: "The results have exceeded our expectations." Before the injection the participants had all smoked between 10 and 40 cigarettes a day. The vaccine is expected to be in the market by 2010. There are about 1.3 billion smokers worldwide.
The FTSEurofirst 300 index of leading European shares rose 0.6 percent to 1,214.35 points, its highest intra-day level since May 2002, and the DJ Stoxx basic resources index rose 1.9 percent to a new all-time high of 355.9. At $459 an ounce, gold closed at a 17-year high and Goldcorp at $20+ closed at a new all-time high.
Northwest Airlines will cut 400 pilots.
Jon Stewart: "This is inarguably a failure of leadership from the top of the federal government. Remember when Bill Clinton went out with Monica Lewinsky. That was inarguably a failure of judgment at the top. Democrats had to come out and risk losing credibility if they did not condemn Bill Clinton for his behavior. I believe Republicans are in the same position right now. And I will say this: Hurricane Katrina is George Bush's Monica Lewinsky. The only difference is that tens of thousands of people weren't stranded in Monica Lewinsky's vagina."
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