Saturday, November 30, 2002

11/30/02 Benefit This

With lengthier life expectancy the IRA madatory minimum withdrawal rule should be extended from the present 70 1/2 to at least 75, and tax payments on that income should not begin until at least 75 too.

More employees are extending their working lives past 65 simply to pay for health coverage because fewer and fewer companies provide retiree health benefits. When combined with social security benefits, the additional income can place the individual in a catch 22 of a higher tax bracket.

Friday, November 29, 2002

11/29/02 Eight Weeks

After today's close the Dow will have risen for 8 consecutive weeks. This is the first time the Dow has done this in the past three years. A good deal of money could have been made during this period which started on Oct. 9. I wrote at that time the market was moving into the most favorable timeframe of the year- late October thru January. I envisioned a bounce but not of this proportions. I have not changed my opinion- the smart move is to sell into this rally and reduce your exposure in companies with serious difficulties. There are few bargains in this market. You might do better shopping at WalMart special sales.

Thursday, November 28, 2002

11/28/02 Happy Thanksgiving

Our diminished appetite for risk has impacted the economy this year but our appetite for turkey continues to grow. I have concluded that a turkey economy is consumer friendly. May everyone enjoy this wonderful day of thanksgiving.

Wednesday, November 27, 2002

11/27/02 Final Demand

The Fed said yesterday that final demand remains vulnerable to weak hiring and a war with Iraq.

Now for the good news. Over the years the market has risen 75% of the time the day before Thanksgiving. So we should look forward to a positive tone today. It would be great if every day of the year were like today.

Forecasters at the NABE cut their estimates for 4th quarter GDP growth to 1.4% from 2.7%. We should be thankful. It could have been negative growth. I'm already in the holiday spirit!

Even I was amazed to read that in 1999 out of 6000 analyst stock recommendations only 8 were labeled to sell. It just goes to prove that in the case of Wall Street analysts even a busted clock is not right twice a day. They are one big train wreck.

Tuesday, November 26, 2002

11/26/02 The Unemployed

The percentage of the unemployed without work for 27 weeks or more rose to 20.3% in October, and in October the average length of unemployment was 17 1/2 weeks. Those unemployed for 6 months or more amounted to 1.66 million Americans.

For the six months ended September 30 Americans filed for over 800,000 bankruptcies, a record number.

Business confidence in Germany fell to a 10 month low.

Last week U.S. chain store sales were on or below plan.

Monday, November 25, 2002

11/25/02 WalMart Cannot Forecast Sales For December

With only a few days left in November I believe it is rather significant that WalMart seems unwilling and/or uncomfortable to forecast same store sales for December. It appears that their November same store sales will grow at 3% or less.

According to the latest Census Bureau figures, 1.4 million Americans lost their health insurance last year. This trend is indeed serious and impacts lower and middle class family members. Healthcare coverage or the lack of it could become a major issue in the next presidential election.

Sunday, November 24, 2002

11/24/02 Homeland Non-Security

On Friday our do nothing Congress adjourned for the year. They failed to extend beyond December 28 unemployment benefits for approximately 900,000 jobless workers. An additional 95,000 unemployed will exhaust their unemployment benefits each week thereafter. This is clearly a "soft spot" in our economy.

Taxable realized capital gains amounted to $600 billion in 2000, $350 billion in 2001, and are estimated at $250 billion this year. No wonder there are deficits at the federal and state levels.

Stock option income was $250 billion in 2000, and this year the amount will be minimal at best.