Saturday, March 15, 2003

3/15/03 Mosquito Hill

Senator John McCain: "Being chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee is like being a mosquito in a nudist colony." His mission is to make corporations more accountable. Now, if only he were able to make the Congress, governmental agencies, and lawmakers more accountable.

Manufacturers are absorbing increased energy costs and are not able to pass them on to customers. This creates lower profit margins and ultimately lower than expected earnings per share, and the latter result in lower stock prices.

February's business equipment production dropped 2.4% on a year-over-year basis.

PC shipments will increase less than forecast this year. Governments are spending less on PCs and related equipment because tax revenue is falling, and businesses are concerned about revenue prospects.

Knute Rockne: "Most men, when they think they are thinking, are merely rearranging their prejudices."

Charles Schwab and Ameritrade cut their earnings and revenue projections- again.

From December to February Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) laid off 5% of its workforce.

Halliburton, the company headed by VP Cheney from 1995 until 2000, is one of five companies asked to bid on possible reconstruction work in Iraq. Halliburton from 1999 to 2000 gave political contributions of $709,320, and 95% went to Republicans.

Germany's Commerzbank plans to eliminate 2800 more jobs.

Pope John XXIII: "It often happens that I wake at night and begin to think about a serious problem and decide I must tell the pope about it. Then I wake up completely and remember that I am the pope!"

The University of Michigan's preliminary March index of consumer sentiment dropped to 75 from about 80 in February, and this was the lowest level in 11 years. The current conditions index plunged to 87 from 95 in February, and the expectations index fell too.

The number of jobs lost in NYC the past two years amounts to 223,000, and the city jobless rate is 8.6%, the highest level in five years. The rate will go higher as municipal workers are about to be given pink slips because of the budget crisis.

"This week we see an increasingly fragile economy that is at a tipping point," Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) director Aniran Banerji said. "Depending on the course of oil prices and geopolitical events, we could be tipped into a new recession." Other ECRI global indicators show that the economies of Europe and Asia are similarly vulnerable.

We have witnessed the 49ers discard Joe Montana and recently the Cowboys let Emmitt Smith go. Now there is Junior Seau, a 12 time Pro Bowler who has spent his entire career with the Chargers. The latter gave Seau permission to talk to other clubs for a trade. Seau, like Montana and Smith, no longer fit into the club's plans. When the star team player is shown no loyalty and treated with little respect, why should a fan support the team?

Friday, March 14, 2003

3/14/03 A Sharp Relief Rally

They're nice to see. The FTSE is up about 9% in a day and a half. Even the Nikkei rallied. We were greeted with nice gains in almost all areas of our market yesterday, and at the outset, we can expect the upward bias to continue. Many such rallies have taken place over the past three years, and more will occur in the future. Just keep the trend your friend, and you'll stay out of harm's way. The trend is decidedly down.

On September 13 President Bush told the UN "we can expect quick resolution to the issue" (of Iraqi disarmament) and set a deadline of "days and weeks, not months and years." I am certain the President meant what he said; however, when a strategy does not work, alternative routes should be explored and hopefully followed. That is true with investing. When wrong, limit your losses. The first loss is the best loss.

Ford will cut second quarter production by 17% and GM by 10%. I mentioned in December this would happen, and you can look for further production cuts thru the year.

Ted Williams: "All managers are losers. They are the most expendable pieces of furniture on the face of the Earth."

U.S. retail sales in February had their largest drop since February 2001. Sales fell by 1.6%.

In a 10Q filing HP said they overstated cash flow from operations for the first quarter by $144 million. I am certain that it was not intentional. Mistakes like that seem to be happening with greater frequency. It must be the water in the Silicon Valley.

GM's annual pension expense is $2.8 billion. Some countries don't spend that kind of dough.

Approximately 20% of the workforce is being laid off at Thomas Weisel Partners. I'm surprised the number isn't larger.

Satchel Paige: "Work like you don't need the money. Love like you've never been hurt. Dance like nobody's watching."

A poll of 90 equity strategists expect market gains of 9% in the U.S. this year. I wonder how their prognosis was from 2000 thru 2002. I wonder whether they are putting their money where their mouth is. That's if they have any money left from prior poor market calls.

EBay rose to a 52 week high yesterday and Adobe exceeded profit forecasts. On the other hand, profit estimates were cut for Baxter Labs, ADP, ConAgra, Bebe, Tyco, and International Paper.

The number of individuals who are jobless and have been filing continuing claims is 3.5 million.

J.M Smucker will lay off 335.

Tomorrow 10,000 California teachers will receive layoff notices.

Ty Cobb: "To get along with me, don't increase my tension." How many Americans feel that way right now?

Thursday, March 13, 2003

3/13/03 A Multilateral Outlet By Consensus

Vincente Fox of Mexico is not your every day politician. He worked for Coca Cola and understands the art of negotiating. As it pertains to the potential Iraqi conflict, he "continues to work to find a multilateral outlet by consensus." Fox and others will, in my view, be successful in having nations come together in providing guideposts to 29 clusters of issues Iraq must address. A possible war deadline will be extended for about 30 days, and these guideposts will be satisfied along the way. Then, Iraq will fade from the headlines, and the economy will get center stage.

Sophocles: "You win the victory when you yield to friends."

The Securities Industry Association said foreign investors bought $507 billion in U.S. stocks and bonds in 2002, and more than 90% of the purchases was in bonds.

Crude oil futures closed at a 12 year high.

Philips Electronics will cut 1600 jobs in the U.S. and Europe.

Milton Friedman: "The government always has a public defender. It has a straight access to the media and to the public airwaves."

The projected liabilities of the three main Illinois pension funds for public workers exceed their assets by 1 1/2 times the state's operating budget for a single year.

Black Box's stock plunged to a 4 year low as the company warned weak tech spending would create a 4th quarter substantially below forecasts.

Magellan Health filed for chapter 11.

Charles De Gaulle: "Since a politician never believes what he says, he is surprised when others believe him."

This is Cover The Uninsured Week.

Intel's CEO said the business outlook remains unclear. I'm so glad he cleared that up for us.

Bertrand Russell: " Patriotism is the willingness to kill and be killed for trivial reasons."

Germany's DAX fell to its lowest level in 7 years.

Over the past 12 months American Airlines stock has lost 95% of its value.

Ann Taylor lowered its first quarter profit forecast as did Maytag.

The major defense stocks- General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and Raytheon- are all trading at year lows.

Altira Group, which owns the Marlboro brand of cigarettes, has a 7.1% dividend yield.

Confucious: "To put the world right in order, we must first put the nation in order; to put the nation in order, we must first put the family in order; to put the family in order, we must first cultivate our personal life; we must first set our hearts right."

The trade deficit in January was $41.1 billion, the second highest on record.

The mortgage refinance index soared more than 35% to a record weekly high.

McDonald's same store sales for February fell 4.7%.

If children are our future, then we have some serious thinking to do. Across this nation there are a large number of teacher layoffs. States and municipalities have critical cash flow problems, and the education of our children will suffer in the present and even more so in years to come. This is a problem which must be addressed and corrected. Education must be a priority. The speeches from politicians will not return teachers to the classroom or prevent future teacher layoffs.

Wednesday, March 12, 2003

3/12/03 Retrench Or Regret

Yesterday the GOP House budget plan was released. It indicates that the federal government will have a balanced budget in 7 years. This is both pathetic and a sign of the times. The present budget forecast for this year has been changed 4 times over the past 8 months. We are in DIRE trouble. As I have mentioned so often, the trade deficit plus the budget deficit will amount to about $660 billion for 2002. We must not forget about Medicare and Medicaid and their combined cost of about 1.25 trillion dollars. Our country has run out of spending power. Had it not been for lower interests, such as, 10 year treasury notes hitting a 45 year low yield of 3.55%, there is no telling how much sooner this crisis would have been upon us. If we keep alienating foreign nations, then our dollar will not be viewed as a safe haven, and we will have difficulty attracting $1.6 billion daily into the country to fund our deficits. It is unwise to depend on others for financial resources, and to depend on a daily basis, undermines our freedoms. Our debts have the potential to be more damaging than terrorism. A real Patriot Act would limit the debt ceiling, limit spending, cut government waste, reduce Congressional staffing, and eliminate hundreds of departments. We can face the music now, or regret it for the rest of our lives.

Fannie Mae, for the first time, will raise funds in foreign currencies-euros, Swiss francs, sterling, and yen. The notes will have maturities of between five and 183 days.

According to a study by Decision Analyst, Inc., confidence in the stock market and mutual funds has fallen by about 50% in the past year. It should be noted that more than double the percentage of males to females expect the value of stocks and mutual funds to increase.

January wholesale inventories fell 0.2% and the inventory/sales ratio returned to November's record low of 1.21. Until new orders become more robust, inventories will be held to a minimum.

Morgan Stanley strategist Barton Biggs believes we are in the process of making an important bottom in the stock markets around the world. Everyone is entitled to his opinion. Barton is a bright guy. I disagree with his opinion.

U.S Steel expects a first quarter loss.

A Gartner Europe survey suggests European IT spending will not grow in 2003. The real question should be- will it decline?

Broadway producers and musicians reached a deal to end the strike.

France has billions of dollars of oil contracts with Iraq. Years ago France sold nuclear material to Iraq.

The FTSE hit a 7 1/2 year low.

French fries and french toast should be off the menu anyway. I, for one, don't need the calories.

In the Gulf War we had 33 countries contributing funds and troops. Look at our bank balance. We don't have the jack to pull off this war alone, and we cannot put our soldiers in harm's way by themselves. That is why I have stated for the past six months that there would not be a war.

Tuesday, March 11, 2003

3/11/03 An Exit Strategy

Whether it's in the area of investing, diplomacy, or even relationships, one would be best off by having an exit strategy prior to getting in over one's head. There is absolutely no rationality in the risk of drowning in deep water when one's swimming skills are limited. In the stock market investors often get stubborn and insist the market is wrong. The market takes no prisoners. When you go against the trend, you must re-group and exit gracefully. Your first loss is your best loss. Minimize the loss whenever possible. We can't be right all the time, but being wrong can be costly, and that's true in life.

Milton Friedman: "Only government can take perfectly good paper, cover it with perfectly good ink, and make the combination worthless."

The UN Head, Kofi Annan, said that military action against Iraq without UN support would violate the organization's charter.

The quarterly earnings for HJ Heinz was lower.

Nokia warned on its sales outlook.

Volkswagen's first quarter earnings will fall significantly.

The Nikkei closed below 8000 for the first time in 20 years.

Consumer pessimism worsened a good deal as it relates to the economy, and the index dropped to 48.8, and is the first time ever it has been below 50. This is highly important. I hope everyone is paying attention. The poll was taken on Sunday.

Japan Airlines cuts its forecast by 67%.

Robert Higgs, a senior fellow in political economy at the Independent Institute: "It seems to me that when we enacted the USA Patriot Act, the U.S. came closer to being a police state. If Patriot II is enacted, we have kissed the Constitution goodbye."

al-Qaeda is seeking Middle East recruits for terrorist attacks on oil fields in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait should the U.S. invade Iraq.

Monday, March 10, 2003

3/10/03 Pension Fund Losses and Stock Valuations

In their latest annual report GE disclosed that its pension plan lost $5.25 billion in 2002, and this loss was equal to 29% of the company's pre-tax earnings. This is a major loss, and is not surprising given last year's drop in GE's stock price. What is surprising is the call that many well-known money managers have recently made on stock valuations. Many consider stocks to be fairly priced given the current price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500. What they have missed is the huge losses in pension funds for the S&P 500 companies. When one accounts for these losses, the price/earnings ratio no longer looks favorable. In fact, it makes stocks look overpriced. I am not including into the equation my view that earnings projections are materially too high. Once again, I urge you to forget about chasing any mini rallies. It's fool's gold, and staying on the sidelines will prove more fruitful. I know I have been saying this for three years but at least you retained your capital while others suffered huge losses- like the GE pension fund.

Heating oil prices are up 58% this year.

Japan's February bank lending fell for the 63rd consecutive month. That's quite a streak.

The Nikkei fell below the 8000 mark, and this average has not closed below that level since March 1983.

Warren Buffett: "Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."

Gasoline is $1.50 per gallon in Atlanta and $2.10 in San Francisco. In the past two weeks pump prices are up 14 cents a gallon in California.

Today, 25% of doctors are women. By 2010 the percentage is expected to increase to 33%.

Same store sales for Best Buy were down 0.2% and for Circuit City down 6%.

The late U.S. Air Force Colonel John Boyd said that war is fought at three levels- moral, mental, and physical. He said the moral level is the most powerful and the physical level the least powerful.

Last year India's GDP grew at a 4.4% annual rate.

There are 32.5 million foreign-born citizens in the U.S. or 11 1/2% of the population.

The growers elected a new board of directors at Ocean Spray.

Has anyone seen Saif al-Adel? With a $25 million reward it might prove more lucrative than winning lotto. He is supposedly the number three in al-Qaeda. How many number threes are there? It reminds me of a quiz show.

Sunday, March 09, 2003

3/9/03 Jesse Livermore

About 70 years ago Jesse was known as the greatest trader Wall Street had ever known. He had his own system, and he followed it like a religion. He could do no wrong. Then slowly Jesse got to reading his own headlines. It got to the point where he believed he could do anything he set out to do. The problem was he forgot his basic trading tenets, the ones where he could do no wrong. Jesse lost all his money, and finally his life was taken via suicide.

Jesse Livermore: "There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side."

Jesse Livermore: "A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong-not taking the loss- that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul." In the end, Jesse was done in by not taking the loss.

Berkshire Hathaway had a banner year in 2002, and earned $4.3 billion on revenues of $42 billion. Winners like Warren Buffett do it the old fashion way- they stick to their knitting and work hard.

Heizo Takenada, Japan's Economics and Financial Services Minister, said today that the BOJ should ease monetary policy even more. Right now short term interest rates are at zero per cent. He suggested the BOJ buy stocks and possibly real estate. Then he got a dose of reality and said "basically, stock price remedies- measures to boost stock prices- are simply impossible." That's right. The market is bigger than any single entity or group of entities, and that includes governments.

The CIA holds two of Shaikh Mohammed's sons in their attempt to get their father to talk. Terrorism is a dirty business.

Health care staffing is a different reality from the job market on main street. It is common to offer a $5000 signing bonus in order to hire an experienced register nurse. Quarterly raises come with the hiring package.