Saturday, March 08, 2003

3/8/03 Don't Complain About The Recession-It Might Worsen

Two year treasury notes yield 1.36%, the lowest level since being regularly issued 30 years ago. The Fed's overnight funds rate of 1.25% will be reduced at the next Fed meeting on March 18. If rates went to zero per cent, it would be too little too late. The Fed is out of the picture. They blew their shot long ago. The economy is spinning out of control, and the downward spiral is picking up speed.

The aggregate hours worked dropped 1% in February. In other words, workers are being paid for less hours but being asked to produce more in those less hours. Morale and fairness be damned.

John Snow: "the cost of war is a one-time sort of thing." Death, John, has an on-going price tag.

Ebay shuts down Half.com.

Microsoft releases their test IM version.

Last October, by a vote of 77-23, the Senate voted to authorize the president to take military action against Iraq. Many, including Tom Harkin of Iowa, said they voted in favor because the language required the administration to seek diplomatic solutions to the stand off with Iraq. Those solutions have been sought; however, the vote to invade Iraq would be very different today.

Hooters Air had their inaugural flight from Atlanta to Myrtle Beach. Will snug t-shirts and orange hotpants sell friendly seats? The chicken wings will not be served.

Will Rogers: "the nation is prosperous on the whole, but how much prosperity is there in a hole?

Intel lost market share due to price hikes in flash memory. In a weak economy pricing power is a figment of one's imagination. Intel's imagination must be running wild. That's more than I can say for their stock price.

The FTSE closed at a 5 week low.

Warren Buffett: "Unfortunately, the hangover from the market bubble may prove to be proportional to the binge."

Crude oil prices rose to a 12 year high. The price of oil has risen 21% this year.

Currently, Iraq is pumping 2.5 billion barrels a day or 3% of the world's oil supply. Opec as a whole pumps a third of the world's oil.

Mahatma Ghandi: "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."

Mahatma Ghandi: "Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever."

The NYC musicians' strike closed Broadway musicals for the first time since 1975.

Jeff Immelt, Ge Chairman: "we have identified six new platforms that we believe can be big, each having $1 billion of operating profit within the next few years- healthcare information technology, security and sensors, Hispanic broadcasting, water technology and services, and U.S. consumer finance.

AynRand: "force and mind are opposites, morality ends where the gun begins."

Paul Volcker: "If you don't have bad loans, you are not in business." Japan and China have learned that.

Friday, March 07, 2003

3/7/03 God Doesn't Play Dice

That quotation belongs to Albert Einstein. He also said "not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts."

Payrolls plunged by 308,000, and this was the sharpest drop since 9/11. Believe it or not payrolls had been expected to rise by 10,000. Just the other day I mentioned you could expect a downbeat employment report. Jobs, or the lack of, are going from bad to awful. You can expect it to get worse.

The Nikkei ended at a fresh 20 year low.

The dollar hit a new 4 year low vs the Euro and the Swiss franc.

The airline industry is expected to lose $6.5 billion in 2003.

Niccolo Machiavelli: "If an injury has to be done to a man it should be so severe that his vengeance need not be feared." I'm with you on this one, Niccolo.

Ulysses S. Grant: "I never advocated war except as a means of peace." Ditto.

The insured unemployment rate jumped to 2.8% from 2.6% in the latest week. This is meaningful.

February same store sales for Barnes and Noble were down 4.4% and for B. Dalton Bookseller down 12.3%. Are people reading less?

February same store sales for Federated were down 6.8%; for Ann Taylor's down 8.6%; and for Sears down 9.4%

Sears is trading at a 10 year low. When you pick bad management, you end up with disastrous results. This compares with WalMart, and the latter just increased its dividend for the 29th consecutive year. The great ones just keep performing. They walk the talk.

Thirty year mortgages hit a record low of 5.67%

Household debt rose 10.7% in the final quarter of 2002- the biggest jump in 13 years.

Mortgage debt rose 13.7%, and it was the biggest jump in 15 years.

Germany's unemployment rate rose to 11.3%. You thought we have it bad.

Iraq owes $2 billion to the USDA for loans that have gone unpaid since 1990 plus $1 billion in interest. These were guaranteed loans to buy U.S. food. In June 1990, just 2 months prior to the invasion of Kuwait, the first Bush Administration was against imposing sanctions on Iraq, and those sanctions would have blocked sales of U.S. food to Iraq.

In Georgia wholesale natural gas prices increased 61% in the last month. This may mean an increase of $60 per month in gas bills. Given the current economic conditions, $60 is not chicken feed.

Thursday, March 06, 2003

3/6/03 Part II: We Bleed Together

Operation Military Pride attempts to boost the morale of our troops thru cards, letters, and care packages. It's vital to support our troops- whether you are for or against the possible war with Iraq. Our troops bleed American blood. When one American bleeds, all Americans bleed. WE BLEED TOGETHER.

Pamela Bates launched her Hugs To Kuwait web site on January 4, and this was two days prior to her Army husband leaving for the middle east. In two short months she has arranged the adoption of about 10,000 troops. That's walking the talk!!!! Pamela Bates is some kind of winner.
3/6/03 China

The jobless rate in China is at a 23 year high.

China expects a record budget deficit of $39 billion.

Eight million people each year enter the workforce in China. In order to create enough jobs the economy must grow at a 7% rate, and that is a tall order.

As in Japan, China faces a major problem with bad bank loans.

China backs France, Germany, and Russia and vows to block a UN resolution which would authorize war on Iraq.

U.S. distillate supplies drop to their lowest level for this time of year in 40 years. Crude inventories are 16% below year ago levels.

Japan's central bank raised the amount of excess cash in the financial market to up to $187 billion to try to help the stagnant economy.

Steelcase warns of more layoffs.

Last year Americans spent $14 billion on vitamins, minerals, and herbal products.

GM is considering the sale of all or part of its commercial mortgage business.

Schering Plough cut its 2003 earning s estimate to 75 to 85 cents from $1.

Jobs in the services sector fell in February. This sector accounts for 80% of the economy.

Unless Washington fiddles with the numbers, there will be a downbeat U.S. employment report out on Friday.

With growing uncertainities, hiring will be delayed this year, and layoffs shall continue.

The Reuters Eurozone Business Activity Index dropped to 48.9 in February, and this represented the first decline in 5 months and was weaker than expected.

Job cuts are coming to Toys "R" Us.

Coca Cola traded at a 7 year low. There were new lows for Kraft, Kellogg, and Adolph Coors.

PETsMART had disappointing results and a weak forecast.

WalMart's February sam store sales only grew at a 2.6% rate.

The ECB cut interest rates to 2.5%.

Swiss Life will report a loss of $1.28 billion.

The war warning has been reduced to "a few days" as the war cabinet is convened. It smells like war in the air, but to me it doesn't feel like war. I must go with my feelings. This war is preventable. The same was not true with the Gulf War. We must remember that, if emotions rule, our decision making will be compromised. When it comes to a possible war with Iraq or our war on terrorism, American lives must be protected. To defeat Iraq in a frightening flash requires no other country's assistance. To keep the peace requires the assistance of an army of countries. We need to win on both fronts.

Wednesday, March 05, 2003

3/5/03 Snowed On

From the outset I have stated that Snow was an awful choice for Treasury Secretary. Yesterday the dollar fell to $1.10 vs the Euro. It was the first time it had reached this level in 4 years. Snow said "I don't see anything troubling" about the weak dollar. He "was not particularly concerned" about the weak dollar. Maybe he should consider taking his head out of the sand. The U.S. needs to attract into this country $1.6 billion per day just to fund our shortfall. A weak dollar will lead to the selling of U.S. assets and not to their purchase. One of the reasons for foreigners selling our stocks is the weak dollar. The latter is a reflection of our economy's health. Obviously, that health continues to deteriorate.

Costco reported second quarter earnings down 5% after taking a 3 cent charge on workers' compensation loss reserves. However, their February same-store sales were up 6%. That's very robust in this economy.

Britain's insurer, Friends Provident, warned it would cut future dividends.

The ECB will reduce interest rates tomorrow.

Glaxo lost an important patent case over its Paxil antidepressant, and generics will result next year.

The U.S. blocked Nestle's purchase of Dreyer's Ice Cream.

France Telecom reported the largest ever French loss.

It has been reported that the U.S. will unleash 3000 precision-guided bombs and missiles in the first 48 hours of the war with Iraq.

Zero percent financing and cash rebates are no longer attracting customers for auto purchases. Some months back I said this would happen. The consumer is tapped out.

There is a big snow storm around Chicago. Spring is not quite here. Only Lent has arrived.

Kemper Insurance has been in the insurance business for 91 years. Not so today. They just sold their last remaining insurance entity to a Swiss group.

Nearly one in three people younger than 65 went without health insurance at some point during 2001-2002. I am certain that figure is higher today. This is totally unacceptable, and the healthcare epidemic continues to explode.

88% of the Mexican public oppose a U.S.-led attack on Iraq. On July 6 Mexico has Congressional elections. Mexico is one of the 10 non-permanent members of the U.N. Security Council. How will Mexico vote on next week's resolution?

On July 20 our government ran out of funds. They had reached their debt limitation. I read about Iraq, N Korea, catching al Qaeda operatives but nothing about our money situation. It's been 2 weeks. If Iraq is running out of time, how about our fiscal crisis? It is out of time. I don't need a resolution to know action is required. Our money problems are a huge time bomb, and the explosion will make 3000 precision-guided bombs and missiles look like a fourth of July sparkler.

Tuesday, March 04, 2003

3/4/03 U.S. Consumer Spending

The above mentioned fell in January, and this was the first drop since September of last year. More significantly, there was a 5.7% drop in spending on durable goods. This was the largest drop in 13 years!

Manufacturers are feeling the pinch of higher energy prices; however, they are unable to pass the higher costs along to the customer. As such, profit margins are dwindling, and, as they do, earnings estimates will be reduced.

GM auto sales fell 19%.

The ISM index fell to 50.5 in February.

Kuwait is accepting the 60,000 troops which were intended for Turkey.

Iraq has 120 surface to air missiles and 16 have been destroyed to this point. Yesterday Iraq moved some surface to air missiles in the direction of Kuwait City. Their range is 85 miles, and the U.S could take them out in several seconds.

Today the President gives a talk to the AMA and he will state that his program will not force seniors into managed care. He couldn't even if he so desired.

President Bush Sr spent the majority of his time focusing on foreign policy and the Gulf War. The American people felt he was not in touch with their needs, and thus, he lost the re-election. His son is making the same mistake. He must balance terrorism with the concerns surrounding the economy. The latter is on a precipice which is sitting on very shaky territory.

How do you balance a budget deficit? Oregon says it's easy. You raise $300 million in debt and then take $112 million from an education fund. You thought only CE0s played with the books. Not so.

Monday, March 03, 2003

3/3/03 The Real World

As you probably know, I am not looking to compete with CNBC, CNN, or any other financial news venue. I write this blog for myself, and hopefully my readers will share in the knowledge I have acquired and also attempt to impart. The opinions are solely mine and are extracted without dilution from my guts. The facts are checked by me, and also generated in pure form. As such, you get unadulterated me on a daily basis. Some can't handle that. For this I make no apologies. I see no point in wasting good energy on those with weak knees. Now for the meat and potatoes.

The increased gas prices at the pump are taking its toll. At 7-Eleven people are buying smaller cups of coffee than they did in January, and more individual sodas are being purchased in place of 12-packs. Consumers are buying less premium gasoline. John Keyes, the CEO of 7-Eleven, says "we see the change immediately. A 20-to 30 cent-a-gallon shift at the pump can take as much as $50 from the working person each month." With the increased gas and heating heating costs this winter, families are spending 5% of their budgets on energy rather than 4% at the start of the year. That's the real world. If the President put his hand in his pocket and paid for gas at the pump and for heating bills, he might have a better appreciation and understanding of daily reality.

Joseph's People is a support group for the unemployed at St. Joseph's Roman Catholic Church in Downington, Pa. John Ralston is an Exton, Pa lawyer and told the group "debt collectors are growing more outrageous in their collection efforts. We're seeing this as an epidemic. They will tell you they'll put you in jail. Well, there hasn't been a debtors' prison since 1850. You can't go to jail for being in debt." Many gathered in St. Joseph's parish hall had been out of work for more than a year. That's the real world.

Michigan's budget shortfall takes its toll. Vacated police and fire jobs are frozen, a senior center is closed, a post office may close, lights at government offices are turned off more often, and all in all, up to $2 billion in cuts are necessary to balance the state budget. Few programs will be spared. Nearly 20% of the services provided cannot be afforded. The Taylor, Michigan mayor said "we are on the brink of a fiscal crisis, and not enough people know it. It's right on the horizon." You've got that right, mayor, and the horizon is right on your ass.

There are 170,000 people employed in the 22 agencies comprising Homeland Security. WalMart employs 1.4 billion people and runs like a well-oiled machine. Like I've always stated, the government is the employer of last resort and wins the gold medal in mismanagement.

Because of poor growth prospects on the European horizon, there is pressure on the ECB to cut interest rates. Unfortunately, I don't believe such a reduction will jumpstart demand. It certainly hasn't done a thing in the U.S.

Vivendi will re-organize. They will keep Universal Music, the jewel. That unit is "throwing off cash and contributing more than one billion euros in annual earnings."

Iraq, in a week's time, will provide a new report on VX nerve gas and anthrax stocks. There is one person who is unaware that a war is not happening, and he is George Bush.

Hugh Osmond is offering to buy Six Continents Plc for 7 billion pounds. Six Continents owns the InterContinental and Holiday Inn and Crowne Plaza hotels. Osmond said "I'm sure it will be a long fight." Hilton is also a possible buyer. Marriott should kick the tires.

Close Brothers is not optimistic for the remainder of 2003.

P&G may buy Wella after trying to purchase Nivea.

U.S Airways will end its pension plan. When will U.S. Airways end operations?

There comes a report that terrorists linked to al Qaeda have targeted U.S. military facilities in Pearl Harbor, and that includes nuclear-powered subs and ships. It has been difficult to confirm this report.

On March 15 United Airlines may make a Section 1113 filing, which asks the bankruptcy court to consider voiding the airline's labor agreements. Management and labor remain miles apart on any agreement, and soon no one will need to worry about redeeming frequent flyer miles at United.

Sen. Hillary Clinton "fully supports" President Bush's Iraq policy.

Qatar, a Persian Gulf monarchy with 800,000 people, was chosen for central command joint operations. The shift to Qatar came after Saudi Arabia's population was against having the U.S forces on its soil. Qatar cannot depend on a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia, and now has the U.S to defend this small country which has some of the world's largest natural gas reserves with an oil-rich economy.

Two U.N. health agencies recommend in a report compiled by a panel of 30 international experts that people should get no more than 10% of their calories from sugar. Thank goodness I'm no longer in the sugar business. That was 15 years ago. Wow time flies.

Turkey's stock market plunged after its parliament refused to allow 60,000 U.S troops to be depliyed in Turkey ahead of a possible war with Iraq. The proposal to host U.S troops fell short by three votes, and three vacant parliamentary seats will be filled in elections held on March 9. A second vote would most likely be held after March 9.

I have said this often, and will repeat it again. These are dangerous investing times. Uncertainty is at the forefront. Unless there is a great opportunity with a magnificent risk/reward, please remain on the sidelines.

Sunday, March 02, 2003

3/2/03 The Right To Voice Dissent

The median price in California statewide for a detached, existing, single-family home in December rose 20% to $338,110 from a year ago. By contrast, the national median price of an existing single-family home in December was $164,000.

In the San Francisco Bay area one-fifth of its office space is vacant. Rent in Silicon Valley for high-tech commercial real estate fell 30% in 2002.

There is no question that sale prices for single-family homes are out of proportion with rents. Low interest rates will not prevent the real estate bubble from bursting. You can count on that.

For February the Dow fell 2.02%, the S&P 500 1.7%, and the Nasdaq was up 1.26%.

Consumer sentiment is at a 9 year low. That sentiment will negatively impact consumer spending. You can count on that too.

Arafat: "the Israeli government is the first inciter for the war against Iraq...Israel considers the war against Iraq as its war against the whole Arab world...Israel wants to use the war against Iraq to escalate its military actions against the Palestinian people." Arafat is entitled to his opinion. In my view, Arafat's head would make for a good hood ornament on a tank.

Ocean Spray rejected an $800 million hostile bid from Northland.

On March 2, 1877 Rutherford B. Hayes was declared the winner of the 1876 presidential election over the democrat Samuel Tilden even though Tilden had won the popular vote. Does anyone remember what Hayes accomplished during his presidency?

In Washington, DC Black Hawk helicopters whir over the District, missile launchers surround the city, and police patrol with assault rifles and carry portable chemical detectors. I have a feeling this is a long range program.

Oil production in Venezuela now tops 2 million barrels a day. Normal is 3.1 million. It is estimated that Venezuela's income from oil will fall 50% from last year's $11.5 billion. The loss of 16,000 experienced oil workers will hamper Venezuela for years.

State Farm Insurance is making progress. In 2001 they lost $5 billion. In 2002 they lost $2.8 billion. This was despite raising rates on auto policies by 10% and 19% for homeowners' insurance. Look for more increases this year. I would not want to use this company's services.

Toni Smith is a senior forward at Manhattanville College, a short ride from my old office in Purchase, N.Y. Toni Smith is protesting against the war in Iraq and the widening gap between rich and poor in the U.S. Her protest consists of turning her back from the U.S. flag while the national anthem is played prior to the start of a game. The right to protest is one of the things guaranteed by our Constitution and our Bill of Rights.

On average March tends to be a down month for the stock market. Last March, howver, the Dow gained 300 points. Of course, the rise was short-lived.

Heavy rains, nightclub fires, a poor economy, and fear of terrorist attacks figure to make this a lousy Mardi Gras season in New Orleans.

Bretton Barber, a 16 year old high school student in Dearborn Heights, Michigan, was sent home for wearing a t-shirt that labels President Bush an "international terrorist".

Public schools in 9 states and with 9.6 million students have until March 10 to stop reciting the Pledge of Allegiance due to a ruling by a U.S. Appeals Court-unless overturned by a higher court.