Saturday, June 11, 2005

The Budget Deficit, Import/Export Price Indices, GM, And Risk

6/11/05 The Budget Deficit, Import/Export Price Indices, GM, And Risk

The U.S. federal budget deficit dropped to $35.3 billion in May, the lowest May deficit in four years, the Treasury Department said Friday. The deficit was $62.5 billion a year ago May. The Congressional Budget Office had estimated the deficit would be $36 billion. Total receipts in May were up 32.2% to $152.7 billion compared with $115.5 billion the previous May. Outlays were up 5.6% to $188 billion. This May had one more business day than last year. So far in the fiscal year, receipts are up 15.4% to $1.37 trillion from $1.19 trillion last year. Outlays are up 7.2% year-to-date at $1.64 trillion. The deficit so far this year is $272.2 billion vs. $346 billion last year.

The U.S. Import Price Index decreased 1.3 percent in May, the Bureau of
Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The decline
followed four consecutive increases, as decreases in both petroleum prices
and non-petroleum prices contributed to the May drop. Prices for U.S. exports
also declined in May, decreasing 0.1 percent for the month.

A downturn in petroleum prices, which fell 6.5 percent in May,
contributed to the turnaround in overall import prices. Prices for import
petroleum had risen 28.2 percent over the previous four months, which led a
4.9 percent increase in import prices over that period. In addition,
non-petroleum import prices declined for the first time since October,
decreasing 0.3 percent in May. The drop was only the second monthly decline
for the index over the past year and was the largest decrease since August
2003. However, both non-petroleum prices and overall import prices remained
up over the past 12 months, rising 2.5 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively.

The turnaround in non-petroleum prices was largely attributable to a 1.5
percent decrease in the price index for non-petroleum industrial supplies and
materials. The decline in that index was the largest since April 2003 and
was driven by lower prices for natural gas, building materials, and metals.
Notwithstanding the May decrease, non-petroleum industrial supplies and
materials prices increased 7.8 percent over the past 12 months. Automotive
vehicles prices also declined in May, edging down 0.1 percent. The decrease
was the first monthly dip for the index since September 2003 as prices for
automotive vehicles rose 1.3 percent over the past year.

Export prices decreased 0.1 percent in May, as falling nonagricultural
prices more than offset an increase in the price index for agricultural
exports. The 2.0 percent May increase in agricultural prices was the third
consecutive monthly advance, but the index was down 8.2 percent over the past
year. Nonagricultural prices decreased 0.4 percent in May, the first
monthly drop for the index since June 2004, and the largest decline since
November 2001. Despite the May decreases, for the year ended last month,
nonagricultural prices increased 3.9 percent and overall export prices rose
2.7 percent.

Gary Shilling: “If my forecast of 1%-to-2% deflation is valid and Treasury bonds rally to 3% yields, they will continue to be superior. Over two years the Treasury due February 2031 will return 35%, including interest payments. The zero maturing in August 2029 will gain 48%. Meanwhile, I don't think you should expect much from the stock market in the next several years. I look for a good deflation of excess supply, but the transition to it may look like the bad deflation of deficient demand as excess debt and other imbalances are worked off.”

Yesterday, GM rose in price by almost 9%. The spark was a meeting between plant-level union officials who met Thursday in Detroit with UAW VP Richard Shoemaker. The subject matter was a willingness to discuss healthcare costs with GM. The union will not reopen the current contract, which does not expire until September 2007. Union officials stated they “will work closely as we can with them.” But, “we will fight against any unilateral changes by GM. If they work on things, we will talk, but if they take unilateral actions, there will be serious consequences.” It is obvious to me that Wall Street misunderstood the nature of the words “a willingness to discuss healthcare costs.” GM stock has risen almost 10 points in about 2 months. I had recommended a hedge--- buying GM, Ford, and Harley Davidson and shorting Daimler Chrysler. It’s time to bank the profits. We did better, and in a shorter time, than I ever envisioned.

"Gas prices have been drifting lower for almost two months. But in the past couple of weeks, the price of crude oil has risen to the $54 range, sending wholesale gasoline prices higher. Those factors indicate that local retail prices could bottom out soon," says Carol Thorp, a spokeswoman for the Automobile Club of Southern California, the state's largest AAA affiliate. "If crude stays at its current level, we may see the end of our lower price trend in the next week or two."

Global demand will reach 86.4 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter, the IEA said in monthly report yesterday, up 200,000 barrels a day from its prediction one month ago. Thus, OPEC will need to pump 29.6 million barrels a day in the final quarter, 300,000 a day more than expected last month, the IEA said.

Gold traded above the 350 euro per ounce level for the first time ever, trading as high as 352 euros per ounce, up two percent for the week, and up 6% over the last three weeks.

Kash at Angry Bear: “If 1-year interest rates rise by just 1.5%, millions of recent home buyers will find their mortgage payments unaffordable. Yet there are plenty of reasonable scenarios that raise 1-year interest rates by that modest amount in the next year or two... which means that we shouldn't find it surprising if millions of recent home buyers soon find themselves unable to afford to live in their own houses.”

It was reported by Interfax that Russia’s oil exports to China will increase by 50% in 2006.

Year-to-date broad money supply, M3, expanded at a 3.6% rate; however, M3 minus Money Funds expanded at a 5.3% rate. First quarter non-financial debt increased at a 10% seasonally-adjusted rate with federal government borrowings rising by 13.8%, and state and local government borrowings rising by 16.2%. If you believe our government is run by fiscal conservatives, then you’re a schmuck. Of course, others participate in this debt frenzy. If you combine bank credit of $7 trillion and total mortgage debt of close to $11 trillion, then you might get a picture of an economy floating on a sea of borrowings without enough life rafts on board. The Fed would dispute this latter statement. The Fed will tell you everything is fine because household net worth is approaching $49 trillion. How liquid is that net worth? Are you willing to test it? I say no one is willing to take that chance. They know better.

The euro traded at a 9-month low versus the dollar.

Superior Industries, an auto parts manufacturer, stated that its second quarter profit would be weaker than expected due to declining orders.

Due to the approaching tropical storm named Arlene, Chevron pulled 900 workers out of the Gulf.

Since our March 2003 invasion of Iraq, at least 1,689 members of our U.S. military have been killed.

Today is the Belmont Stakes, my favorite horse race. At 1 ½ miles, it is a grind and reflects conditioning, grit, and a jockey’s patience. In this 11 horse field, I see only three contenders--- Afleet Alex, Giacomo, and Reverberate, his sire, Thunder Gulch, won this race in 1995 and his sire’s offspring, Point Given, won the Belmont in 2000. I continue to believe Afleet Alex is the real deal, and he will win this race and the Eclipse Award as the top 3-year old for 2005.

Wal-Mart’s June five-week reporting period extends from Saturday, May 28th, through Friday, July 1st. Comparative sales for the U.S. are estimated to be within the company’s guidance of 2 to 4 percent. For the latest week, “general merchandise comparative sales were stronger than food. Sales strengths included seasonal apparel merchandise and air movement (air conditioners and fans) as weather was more seasonal this week. The Northeast was the strongest region and average ticket drove the comp sales.”

Will Rogers: “We are the first nation in the history of the world to go to the poorhouse in an automobile.”

Friday, June 10, 2005

Needed Rest

6/10/05 Needed Rest

Yesterday, I slept through the Chairman’s testimony to Congress. I needed the rest and greatly appreciated his saying absolutely nothing. Had it been different, members of Congress would not have understood his lingo.

Albert Einstein: “Sometimes one pays most for the things one gets for nothing.”

Only 17 percent of California households could afford to buy a median-priced home in April compared to 20 percent a year ago, the California Association of Realtors announced Thursday. In California, to buy a median-priced home in April listed at $509,230, an annual income of $120,290 was needed based on an interest rate of 5.92 percent and assuming a 20 percent down-payment. That's up from the $102,350 needed in April 2004, when the median price of a home was $452,680 and the prevailing interest rate was 5.42 percent.

Interstate Bakeries will close its San Francisco bakeries and cut 650 jobs.

China’s May trade surplus of about $9 billion came close to doubling from the prior month. Exports rose 30% from May 2004.

The AP-Ipsos poll is hot off the presses. Thirty-five percent of those polled believe the country is headed in the right direction; 43% approve of the job Bush is doing; 41% support Bush’s handling of the war; 45% support his foreign policy; 37% support Bush’s handling of Social Security and 43% his handling of the economy; and only 30% of those polled approve of the job being done by Congress. All of the aforementioned are new lows in approval ratings. Actually, I’m surprised they are not lower. Give it time.

According to the second quarter “CFO Outlook Survey,” the CFO Optimism Index of the U.S. economy is now 68.66, down 7% from 73.55 a year ago. It is the lowest optimism about the U.S. economy and their own companies’ financial prospects in the past 12 months. CFOs are predicting only a 5% increase in capital spending over the next 12 months, less than half their prediction of 13% three months ago. Technology spending is expected to increase 4%, the lowest forecast since June 2003. CFOs from 186 companies participated in this quarter’s survey.

Central bank governor Allan Bollard stated yesterday that New Zealand’s economic growth will slow to 2.9% in 2005 from 4.8% in 2004.

The Bank of Thailand raised the 14-day repurchase rate to 2.5%, the highest rate since December 2001. It was the fifth since last August when rates were at a record low of 1.25%.

Yesterday, Unocal stated its Thailand subsidiary started up the second oil processing platform in the Gulf of Thailand. Unocal’s Thailand president stated “we are on track to achieve our target of ramping up gross crude oil production to 40,000 barrels per day by the third quarter this year, from the current level of 24,00 barrels per day gross.” So far in 2005, Unocal Thailand’s gross daily production has averaged approximately 1.280 billion cubic feet of natural gas, 42,000 barrels of condensate, and 24,000 barrels of crude oil.

After yesterday’s rally, crude is currently changing hands at $54.40 a barrel.

A recent study by recruiting firm Russell Reynolds Associates revealed turnover among CFOs of Fortune 500 companies increased by 23% from 2003 to 2004 and controller turnover increased by 25% during this same 12 months, while resignations increased by an astounding 400%.

Every day, and all day, we read about rising home prices and the bubble in various parts of the country. Almost ignored is the Dow Jones Utility Average. It stands at 371, a pretty fancy rise from the 160 level reached only three years ago. I see few bargains in this sector. On the other hand, Buffett may disagree.

Jeanette Winterson: “What you risk reveals what you value.”

Thursday, June 09, 2005

The Same Concerns

6/9/05 The Same Concerns

If you think Ayn Rand’s star pupil will provide a different picture of the world today, then disappointment will arrive at your door. The same concerns will be provided- - -
protectionist backlash against free trade; our low savings rate; speculation in the housing market spurred by non-conservative lending practices; our twin tower deficits; and rising inflation. The list will get longer. The result will be the same solutions--- keep increasing short-term interest rates at a measured pace and ensure the money supply doesn’t increase beyond the rate of GDP growth.

Edgar R. Fiedler: "The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers.”

Despite U.S. oil inventories falling by 3 million barrels, the most since January and only the third increase in the last 17 weeks, closed at about $52.50 per barrel after rising to $54.50. Traders are worried about possible excess supply problems. With China consuming more than 7 million barrels per day combined with our 20 million barrels per day, and that does not include Japan and India, a greater worry should be supply not the excess of supply. This morning crude stands at $52.79 a barrel. It should be noted that over the past four weeks demand for diesel is up 6.6%, while gasoline demand has risen 2.4%.

Petroleum has also had an impact on overall U.S. wholesale inventories. Through the 12 months ended April 2005, sales by U.S. wholesalers have increased 8.1%, while inventories rose 11.8%. During this time period, petroleum inventories climbed almost 71%. That’s what takes place after hefty price gains.

Furniture Brands stated the company would close 4 plants and that would result in a loss of 1,244 jobs. Packerland Packing will close a plant in Gering, Nebraska and 205 employees will be cut from the payroll. Richelieu Foods’ pizza plant in Ohio will stop making toppings and 115 jobs will be lost.

Yesterday, Chevron and Unocal executed agreements with the FTC. This resolved all outstanding FTC issues associated with Chevron’s proposed acquisition of Unocal. The proposed acquisition remains subject to approval by Unocal shareholders and the fulfillment of other customary conditions. If CNOOC is to enter the fray, this is the time to do so.

The Wall Street Journal said the Congressional Budget Office will testify before a House committee today that the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. could face a $71 billion gap between its assets and promised benefit payments by plans taken over by the agency.

Evan Esar: "An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.”

Information security topped this year's list of concerns in the seventh annual Technology Issues for Financial Executives survey. For the first time, "information security" emerged as the number one concern related to technology among financial executives surveyed, replacing "prioritizing technology investments," which dropped to number two. Only one in five chief financial officers (CFOs) are "highly satisfied" with their
security programs.

"Countrywide Financial achieved solid operational performance for the month of May,"
said Stanford L. Kurland, President and Chief Operating Officer. "Mortgage
loan fundings were a robust $39 billion, up from last month and May 2004, with
much of the growth coming from home purchase fundings. Aided by a 26 basis
point decline in fixed-rate mortgage rates during the month of May and a
seasonal increase in purchase application activity, Countrywide's average
daily mortgage loan application volume rose 8 percent. As a result, the
mortgage loan pipeline surpassed the $70 billion mark -- a level not seen
since 2003's record year. May highlights also include the continued growth of
the Bank, where assets reached $62 billion at month-end."

Steve Davidson: "Forecasting future events is often like searching for a black cat in an unlit room, that may not even be there.”

The Same Concerns

6/9/05 The Same Concerns

If you think Ayn Rand’s star pupil will provide a different picture of the world today, then disappointment will arrive at your door. The same concerns will be provided- - -
protectionist backlash against free trade; our low savings rate; speculation in the housing market spurred by non-conservative lending practices; our twin tower deficits; and rising inflation. The list will get longer. The result will be the same solutions--- keep increasing short-term interest rates at a measured pace and ensure the money supply doesn’t increase beyond the rate of GDP growth.

Edgar R. Fiedler: "The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers.”

Despite U.S. oil inventories falling by 3 million barrels, the most since January and only the third increase in the last 17 weeks, closed at about $52.50 per barrel after rising to $54.50. Traders are worried about possible excess supply problems. With China consuming more than 7 million barrels per day combined with our 20 million barrels per day, and that does not include Japan and India, a greater worry should be supply not the excess of supply. This morning crude stands at $52.79 a barrel. It should be noted that over the past four weeks demand for diesel is up 6.6%, while gasoline demand has risen 2.4%.

Petroleum has also had an impact on overall U.S. wholesale inventories. Through the 12 months ended April 2005, sales by U.S. wholesalers have increased 8.1%, while inventories rose 11.8%. During this time period, petroleum inventories climbed almost 71%. That’s what takes place after hefty price gains.

Furniture Brands stated the company would close 4 plants and that would result in a loss of 1,244 jobs. Packerland Packing will close a plant in Gering, Nebraska and 205 employees will be cut from the payroll. Richelieu Foods’ pizza plant in Ohio will stop making toppings and 115 jobs will be lost.

Yesterday, Chevron and Unocal executed agreements with the FTC. This resolved all outstanding FTC issues associated with Chevron’s proposed acquisition of Unocal. The proposed acquisition remains subject to approval by Unocal shareholders and the fulfillment of other customary conditions. If CNOOC is to enter the fray, this is the time to do so.

The Wall Street Journal said the Congressional Budget Office will testify before a House committee today that the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. could face a $71 billion gap between its assets and promised benefit payments by plans taken over by the agency.

Evan Esar: "An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.”

Information security topped this year's list of concerns in the seventh annual Technology Issues for Financial Executives survey. For the first time, "information security" emerged as the number one concern related to technology among financial executives surveyed, replacing "prioritizing technology investments," which dropped to number two. Only one in five chief financial officers (CFOs) are "highly satisfied" with their
security programs.

"Countrywide Financial achieved solid operational performance for the month of May,"
said Stanford L. Kurland, President and Chief Operating Officer. "Mortgage
loan fundings were a robust $39 billion, up from last month and May 2004, with
much of the growth coming from home purchase fundings. Aided by a 26 basis
point decline in fixed-rate mortgage rates during the month of May and a
seasonal increase in purchase application activity, Countrywide's average
daily mortgage loan application volume rose 8 percent. As a result, the
mortgage loan pipeline surpassed the $70 billion mark -- a level not seen
since 2003's record year. May highlights also include the continued growth of
the Bank, where assets reached $62 billion at month-end."

Stteve Davidson: "Forecasting future events is often like searching for a black cat in an unlit room, that may not even be there.”

Wednesday, June 08, 2005

Zero-Zero-FREE

6/8/05 Zero-Zero-FREE

Monaco Coach Corporation today announced it has joined with E*TRADE Consumer Finance Corporation (ETCF) to offer buyers no down payment, no payments for six months financing and free fuel when financing new Monaco Coach Corporation products.
Effective immediately, ETCF will offer 'no money down and no payments for
six months' financing, on approved credit, to customers who buy any new 2005
Monaco, Holiday Rambler, Beaver, Safari or McKenzie motorhome, travel trailer
or fifth wheel through an authorized dealership. Monaco Coach will also
provide a free fuel card on any of the above-described purchases, with the
value of the card determined by the value of the amount financed by ETCF. The
promotion's slogan is "Zero-Zero-FREE -- It's time to buy a new RV." The
promotion runs through July 31, 2005. In the United States life is one big free trip. When does the payment come due?

Yesterday, was a ball buster for job cuts. Despite eliminating 22,000 U.S. hourly jobs over the previous four years, GN announced cutting an additional 25,000 U.S. hourly jobs, or about one in five, between now and the end of 2008. More than 1,100 Boeing Wichita, Kansas workers out of a total of about 9,300 received notice that they will no longer have a job when Onex completes its purchase of the plant’s commercial operations June 16. Thomasville Furniture is closing a 373,000 sq. ft. plant in North Carolina and several smaller support plants and will have the largest layoff in the company’s history with 588 workers losing their jobs. Furniture Brands is closing 2 Broyhill plants in Lenoir, North Carolina and will announce the number of jobs eliminated. Cell Therapeutics is laying off 92 workers in Seattle. Conagra is cutting several hundred salaried jobs.

Kmart’s sales have fallen in at least 12 of the previous quarters. Sears’ sales have declined for 14 of the previous 16 quarters. Same-store sales for Kmart/Sears are declining. Management stated that more job cuts are on the way. The stock has risen 150% over the past year. It will be interesting to see whether the new Kmart/Sears is around in 2015.

Jack Guynn, Atlanta Fed bank president: “In some markets… the activity in residential real estate looks pretty speculative to me, and that makes me very uncomfortable. There’s a very good chance that some lenders, some buyers, and some builders will get burned.”

Over the past 20 years, PepsiCo, has invested $500 million in China. The company hopes to record its first profit in China in 2005.

The Federal Reserve reported yesterday that U.S. consumer credit rose in April at an annual rate of 0.7%, or $1.3 billion. Economists had expected an increase of $7.4 billion. Credit card debt decreased 0.6% in April, the second straight month of decline. However, the increase in consumer debt in March was revised upward to 3.9% from 3.1%.

Delta and Northwest have been lobbying for legislation that would give airlines up to 25 years to repair pension underfunding. Yesterday, both airlines warned Congress they could go bankrupt and terminate their pension plans soon if lawmakers did not allow them to stretch contributions. My response is that Congress should permit the stretching of pension contributions with one proviso--- no officer or director receives any form of remuneration, including expense accounts, during the stretching period.

According to the California Building Industry Association, in California, home equity has grown by $1 trillion since 2000. According to the National Association of Realtors, the median sales price of an existing single-family home in the San Francisco Bay Area was $689,000 through the first three months of 2005, a gain of 45% from $475,900 at the end of 2001. What part have interest-only loans played in this increase?

Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies stated “banks’ home equity loan portfolios may be vulnerable to a rise in interest rates and a decline in home values…You start a chain where you lend because values are going up, which provokes more demand for properties, which raises property values, and at some point it busts.”

The DOE stated the price of crude will average about $53 a barrel in the third quarter.

The PBGC stated that, U.S. companies with underfunded pensions, had an aggregate shortfall of $354 billion at the end of 2004.

Centex stock hit a new all-time high.

WWW.BenefitsCheckUp.org is a must-see Web site for low-income seniors nationwide. By filling out a 15- 20 minute questionnaire, you are provided information on 1,300 different federal, state, and some local health care benefit programs. There usually can be significant savings on prescription drugs.

Rob Peebles: “Michael Panzer, adept chart maker and author of The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle, has quantified just how talkative the Fed is these days, and maybe they figure if they just keep talking no one will notice the economy is slipping away from them like an ice cream cone in the hands of a toddler.”

China has 31 provinces and different laws in each one. Can you imagine doing business there? How many thousands of palms must be greased prior to making a profit? You take China and I’ll take India.

Mortgage applications at U.S. mortgage banks increased by 6.5% last week as interest rates dropped, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday. Applications to refinance existing mortgages increased 10.3%, while applications for purchases increased 3.6%. Refinancings accounted for 42.9% of all applications, the highest percentage since March.

Hiroshi Okuda, Toyota’s chairman: "General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. are symbols of U.S. industry, and if they were to crumble it could fan nationalistic sentiment. I always have a fear that that in turn could manifest itself in policy decisions."

Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. said it would buy 18.93 million General Motors shares at the $31 tender price. This would raise its stake in GM to 40.93 million shares, or 7.2% of the total stock outstanding, from 22 million shares, or 3.89%.

Dr. W. Edwards Deming: “It is not necessary to change. Survival is not mandatory. Learning is not compulsory…neither is survival.”

Tuesday, June 07, 2005

Mulling Over

6/7/05 Mulling Over

It’s a damn mystery to Greenspan. He can’t figure why long-term Treasury yields have gone down while short-term rates have risen. Yet, he doesn't expect a change in long-term rates soon. If anyone listens to his predictions, one can only be called a putz. If on the one hand there is an unsolved mystery, how then can he be clairvoyant on the other hand? The conundrum is this--- why doesn’t he mull it over and, at the same time, remain silent?

There is one person who talks smart and that’s John P. Hussman. He described the markets this way: “that story continues to have the following elements: an overvalued stock market, overbought technicals with evidence of persistent distribution, and overbought (and in my view also overvalued) bond market, and an overbought dollar, but at the same time, not enough evidence of risk aversion, inflation, or recession risk to conclude that the markets couldn’t hold up for a while longer. In short, with valuations firmly unfavorable on every front, negative developments are less a question of “if” as “when.” But “when” need not be now. While we clearly allow for further short-term strength in both stocks and bonds, the probable return/risk tradeoff still appears unfavorable. We remain defensive, but also patient, and open to new information that might change our evaluation of the risks.”

CNOOC stated today that it was “continuing to examine its options with respect to Unocal. These options include a possible offer by the company for Unocal, but no decision has been made in this respect. No assurances can be made that the company will ultimately make an offer for Unocal.” Why was this statement issued? It said nothing new. CNOOC held its board meeting on May 23 and May 24. They hired an investment banker and a consultant for the outside directors. That brought the total to three investment bankers and one consultant. If they hire some more advisors, the cost might equal the $500 million break-up fee for Chevron, which the latter receives if their bid for Unocal is negated by a third-party bid, such as, by CNOOC. The $500 million fee is a lot of money; however, when taken in the context of a possible $18 to $19 billion deal, then it becomes the cost of doing business. The fact is CNOOC has proven reserves of 2.2 billion of oil equivalents. Unocal has 1.754 billion. Taken together, those reserves would make CNOOC the largest oil and gas company in China as well as a formidable long-term player in the industry. If CNOOC decides to make a bid, financing will not be a problem. As for disrupting trade with the U.S., again I should mention that Henry Kissinger is on CNOOC’s advisory board. Internationally, Kissinger is not considered chopped liver. So why did CNOOC issue that statement? Is it a conundrum? I don’t think so. I believe it is a signal to Chevron that, if they want to takeover Unocal, then CNOOC cannot walk away empty handed. It could also be an advertisement to entice any potential partner to come forward and speak up. As I’ve said, the last has not been written on this deal.



The semiconductor equipment industry lost steam in April, according to numbers released Friday by VLSI Research Inc. of Santa Clara. The widely watched book-to-bill ratio was 0.82 on bookings of $3.7 billion and billings of $4.5 billion. A ratio of less than 1.0 indicates a slowdown in orders. The industry had posted a seasonally strong March, but April bookings fell 11 percent from March and 35 percent below the April 2004 level. April billings were off 23 percent from March and flat against the year-ago numbers. VLSI said electronics end-demand is strong and chip inventories have fallen to extremely low levels. The three-month rolling average of the B:B ratio for chips has hovered above 1.00 since January. The firm forecast a 0.91 B:B ratio in May.

Sales at major U.S. retail chain stores rose 0.4% last week after declining the previous three weeks, the International Council of Shopping Centers reported Tuesday. Sales were up 3.3% year-over-year, up from 3.1% the week before. For all of June, same-store sales are expected to rise 3% to 4%, said ICSC Chief Economist Mike Niemira.

Cell Genesys stated today it will eliminate 95 jobs and reduce the company’s work force to 285 employees by year’s end. Cell Genesys also plans to sell its San Diego manufacturing facility and reduce operations at its Memphis manufacturing and distribution facility.

Monday, June 06, 2005

Will And Game

6/6/05 Will And Game

In order to reach the top of your profession, one must possess the will as well as the game. That’s what sets Rafael Nadal apart from Alan Greenspan. Nadal has the will to partner with his game. Greenspan has the will but not the game. If Greenspan looked in the mirror, he would realize the conundrum is staring him in the face. In a global setting, Greenspan’s game is no match for the derivative players. Today’s game has left him in the dust. On the other hand, Nadal’s game has set the new standard for clay court tennis. When faced with adversity, his indomitable will exploits the opponent’s weaknesses. By comparison, Greenspan must resort to the printing press. This losing strategy sucks the blood out of the dollar and serves up another round of inflation.

Hyundai opened its first U.S. plant two weeks ago in Montgomery, Ala. Toyota, meanwhile, is building another plant, this one in San Antonio, to increase production of its pick- ups.

In the first five months of this year, GM's U.S. market share fell to 25.4 percent from 27 percent a year ago, while Ford's dropped to 17.9 percent from 18.8 percent. Meanwhile, Asian brands' share of the U.S. market grew to 36.5 percent from 34.3 percent, according to Autodata Corp. DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler Group is the only domestic carmaker that has had a share increase this year -- to 14 percent from 13.3 percent.

Both GM and Ford said last week that they plan to build fewer vehicles in the coming months than they did a year ago

According to the Energy Department, refineries in the U.S. operated at 96.2% of capacity in the week ended May 27. Today crude oil climbed to a six-week high of $55.55 a barrel. The record high of $58.28 was reached on April 4.

Copper is trading at $3,308 a ton. The record high of $3,328 was set on April 12.

The Confederation of Indian Industry estimated that India’s economy is likely to grow by 7.2% in the current fiscal year.

Washington Mutual agreed to buy Providian Financial for $6.45 billion in cash and stock.

According to Khalid Malik, UN Resident Coordinator and UN Development Program Resident Representative in China, stated China’s GDP is expected to quadruple by the year 2020, while its energy consumption is expected to double. He noted that China’s energy issues are characterized by a heavy reliance on coal, insufficient energy supply, and low overall level of energy efficiency. Malik stated “China’s energy consumption per unit of output value in 2000 was 2.4 times than that of the world’s average, and that the level of end-use energy efficiency in China is currently 10% lower than that of industrialized countries.”

Sunday, June 05, 2005

Ignorance Or Misspeaking?

6/5/05 Ignorance Or Misspeaking?

President Bush’s 6/4/05 Radio Address: “America's economy is on the right track.
Over the past two years, we've added more than 3.5 million new jobs. More
Americans are working today than ever before. Home ownership is at an all
time high. Small businesses are flourishing. Factory output is growing. And
families are taking home more of what they earn.” In fact, so far in 2005, 48,000 factory jobs have been lost. In fact, wages have risen by 2.6% in 2005, and that’s lower than the inflation rate. In fact, we are an economy largely based on the service-sector. In May, just 64,000 service-sector jobs were created, down from 232,000 in April. In fact, since Bush entered office in January 2001, the meager number of net jobs created over this 4 ½ year period has been only lower once in our history- - during the Depression, and this has been accompanied by debt expanding to over 300% of this nation’s GDP. There is no question that home ownership is at an all-time high, but so is mortgage debt and home equity lines of credit. One should ask whether tighter lending standards for residential construction will be instituted by the Fed. I believe they will, and those new standards could change the face of the housing boom.

Teddy Roosevelt: "We can afford to differ on the currency, the tariff, and foreign policy; but we cannot afford to differ on the question of honesty if we expect our republic permanently to endure ..." "Honesty is not so much a credit as an absolute prerequisite to efficient service to the public. Unless a man is honest, we have no right to keep him in public life; it matters not how brilliant his capacity." "The weakling and the coward cannot be saved by honesty alone; but without honesty, the brave and able man is merely a civic wild beast who should be hunted down by every lover of righteousness." "No man who is corrupt, no man who condones corruption in others, can possibly do his duty by the community...." "'Liar' is just as ugly a word as 'thief,' because it implies the presence of just as ugly a sin in one case as in the other. If a man lies under oath or procures the lie of another under oath, if he perjures himself or suborns perjury, he is guilty under the statute law." "Under the higher law, under the great law of morality and righteousness, he is precisely as guilty if, instead of lying in a court, he lies in a newspaper or on the stump; and in all probability, the evil effects of his conduct are infinitely more widespread and more pernicious."

HP has a global workforce of 151,000 employees. In a cost cutting move, one can expect 5% to 10% to be cut from the payrolls.

SomaliNet reports that in the early morning hours of June 1, 2005, "the first snowfall on this part of the world has claimed one life and caused extensive damage to properties. Puntland, northeastern part of Somalia has never recorded snowfall before last night when snow storms with high winds destroyed homes in Rako town. The storm left a blanket of snow on the ground, something residents had never seen in their lives before.”

Beginning July 4th, Delta will fly from Seattle to JFK for as little as $99 each way, and do not include taxes and fees. The offer is good through June 11 with no minimum stay required but travel must be completed by August 26.

According to the Air Transport Association, U.S. airlines expect to carry 200 million passengers on domestic flights from now through Labor Day, up 4.1% from last summer.

Alexander Tyler: "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves money from the public treasure. From that moment on the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most money from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's great civilizations has been two hundred years. These nations have progressed through the following sequence: from bondage to spiritual faith, from spiritual faith to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependency, from dependency back to bondage."