Thursday, May 15, 2008

Gov't Numbers

5/15/08 Gov't Numbers

For 2008, Illinois Tool Works predicted earnings from continuing operations to come in the range of $3.35 to $3.49 a share with revenue growth of 8% to 12%.

The OPEC oil cartel, in its monthly report, estimated world oil demand this year to average 86.95 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, up 1.2% from last year and a slight downward revision from its previous estimate of 86.97 million barrels a day.

CBS Corp.said Thursday it inked a deal to buy CNet Networks Inc. for $11.50 a share in cash. The deal values the operator of CNET, ZDNet, GameSpot.com, TV.com, mp3.com, CNET news.com and other Web sites at about $1.8 billion.

The average U.S. gasoline price rose about 2 cents to $3.78 a gallon in the last day, according to the Daily Fuel Gauge Report from the Automobile Association of America.

UBS sees light sweet crude this year at $115 a barrel, up 32% from its earlier forecast, oil in 2009 at $120 a barrel, up 54% from its previous view and oil in 2010 at $116.50 a barrel, up 53% from its previous view. UBS on Thursday upgraded oil major Chevron to buy from neutral.

Retailer J.C. Penney Co Inc reported a 50 percent drop in quarterly profit on Thursday as its middle-income shoppers pulled back on spending amid the U.S. economic downturn.

John Edwards, former candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination and champion of organised labour, sought to rally his party and bring the primary race to a close by providing Barack Obama with his highest-profile endorsement in months.

The number of newly laid off workers applying for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week, indicating the weak economy was still weighing on the job market.The Labor Department reported Thursday that applications for jobless benefits rose by 6,000 last week to 371,000. The number of people who remained on the jobless benefit rolls after drawing an initial week of aid increased 28,000 to 3.06 million in the week ended May 3, the latest period for which figures were available.

Blackstone Group LP, manager of the world's largest private-equity fund, said it had a loss of $66.5 million in the first quarter as leveraged buyouts evaporated and the value of companies it owns declined. Blackstone Group LP President Tony James said banks are mistaken if they think credit markets have begun a sustained recovery. ``It's not clear to me if it's a permanent upswing as I think many of the banks are saying or the eye of the hurricane,'' James told reporters on a conference call today.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, leased about 80 percent of the world's deepest-drilling offshore rigs to explore prospects including the Western Hemisphere's biggest discovery in decades.

The New York Fed's "Empire State" general business conditions index fell to minus 3.23 in May from positive 0.63 in April. The prices paid measure of inflation rose to 69.57 -- the highest since the start of the data series in July 2001. In April it was 57.29.

The Philly Fed diffusion index rose to negative 15.6 in May from negative 24.9 in April.

June crude closed at a one-week low of $124.12 an ounce Thursday, down 10 cents for the session, after dropping to a low of $120.90. June gold climbed $13.50, or 1.6%, to close at $880 an ounce Thursday in New York.

After stabilizing at 20 the past three months, the NAHB/Wells Fargo home builders' sentiment index fell back in May to 19, only one point above the record low of 18 set in December. Builders' assessment of current sales have never been gloomier in the 23-year history of the survey, with the sales index falling to 17 in May from the previous record low of 18 in April. The sales climate is so bad that the builders say that only a federal subsidy for home buyers will turn the market around.

On the heels of a strong vote for passage in the House, senators on Thursday approved a $289 billion, five-year farm bill that is under a presidential veto threat. Senators voted 81-to-15, easily attaining the two-thirds majority needed to override a veto. On Wednesday, House lawmakers voted 318-to-106 to pass the bill, also securing the two-thirds majority needed for an override.

Natural-gas prices led the losses in the energy sector, with the June futures contract trading 37 cents, or 3.2%, lower at $11.23 per million British thermal units, its lowest level in over a week. Natural-gas inventories rose by 93 billion cubic feet for the week ended May 9, the Energy Department said Thursday. Analysts at Strategic Energy & Economic Research expected the data to show an increase of 85 billion. Total stocks now stand at 1.529 trillion cubic feet, down 286 billion cubic feet from the year-ago level but 3 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, the government data said.

Icahn said in a statement that during the last 10 days he has acquired 59 million shares of Yahoo stock and has applied for federal clearance to by $2.5 billion worth of the company's shares. Icahn said the current Yahoo board "acted irrationally and lost the faith of shareholders" when it turned down Microsoft Corp.'s $33 a share offer for the company. Paulson & Co., the New York hedge-fund manager run by John Paulson, bought a 3.6 percent stake in Yahoo! Inc. and will support investor Carl Icahn's effort to push the company back into takeover talks with Microsoft Corp.
Paulson owned 50 million shares of the Sunnyvale, California-based Internet company as of March 31, according to a filing today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


Foreign owners sold $48.2 billion in U.S. financial assets in March compared with net purchases of $48.9 billion in February, the Treasury Department reported Thursday. The U.S. must import about $60 billion in capital every month to finance the balance of payments deficit.

Industrial output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities dropped 0.7% in April in a broad-based decline led by falling production of motor vehicles, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday. Output of factories fell 0.8%, the biggest decline since September 2005. Industrial production has risen 0.2% in the past year, and is down 1.2% since January.

The DJ Health Care Providers Index is down 21% in the past 6 months and down 15% in the past 3 months.

Obama's overall delegate total is 1,895, compared to 1,718 for his rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton. It takes 2,026 to clinch the nomination at the party convention in Denver this summer.

Nordstrom Inc. and Kohl's Corp. on Thursday both reported lower first-quarter earnings and warned that the tough retail climate in the U.S. will likely cause even more damage to their bottom lines in the coming months. Nordstrom warned that it expects 2008 earnings of $2.65 to $2.80 a share, down from a prior targeted range of $2.75 to $2.90 a share. Kohl's said it expects to earn 70 cents to 74 cents a share in the second quarter and $2.95 to $3.15 a share for the full year, below estimates of $3.20.

Republican John McCain declared for the first time Thursday he believes the Iraq war can be won by 2013, although he rejected suggestions that his talk of a timetable put him on the same side as Democrats clamoring for full-scale troop withdrawals.

Gov't Numbers

5/15/08 Gov't Numbers

For 2008, Illinois Tool Works predicted earnings from continuing operations to come in the range of $3.35 to $3.49 a share with revenue growth of 8% to 12%.

The OPEC oil cartel, in its monthly report, estimated world oil demand this year to average 86.95 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, up 1.2% from last year and a slight downward revision from its previous estimate of 86.97 million barrels a day.

CBS Corp.said Thursday it inked a deal to buy CNet Networks Inc. for $11.50 a share in cash. The deal values the operator of CNET, ZDNet, GameSpot.com, TV.com, mp3.com, CNET news.com and other Web sites at about $1.8 billion.

The average U.S. gasoline price rose about 2 cents to $3.78 a gallon in the last day, according to the Daily Fuel Gauge Report from the Automobile Association of America.

UBS sees light sweet crude this year at $115 a barrel, up 32% from its earlier forecast, oil in 2009 at $120 a barrel, up 54% from its previous view and oil in 2010 at $116.50 a barrel, up 53% from its previous view. UBS on Thursday upgraded oil major Chevron to buy from neutral.

Retailer J.C. Penney Co Inc reported a 50 percent drop in quarterly profit on Thursday as its middle-income shoppers pulled back on spending amid the U.S. economic downturn.

John Edwards, former candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination and champion of organised labour, sought to rally his party and bring the primary race to a close by providing Barack Obama with his highest-profile endorsement in months.

The number of newly laid off workers applying for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week, indicating the weak economy was still weighing on the job market.The Labor Department reported Thursday that applications for jobless benefits rose by 6,000 last week to 371,000. The number of people who remained on the jobless benefit rolls after drawing an initial week of aid increased 28,000 to 3.06 million in the week ended May 3, the latest period for which figures were available.

Blackstone Group LP, manager of the world's largest private-equity fund, said it had a loss of $66.5 million in the first quarter as leveraged buyouts evaporated and the value of companies it owns declined. Blackstone Group LP President Tony James said banks are mistaken if they think credit markets have begun a sustained recovery. ``It's not clear to me if it's a permanent upswing as I think many of the banks are saying or the eye of the hurricane,'' James told reporters on a conference call today.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, leased about 80 percent of the world's deepest-drilling offshore rigs to explore prospects including the Western Hemisphere's biggest discovery in decades.

The New York Fed's "Empire State" general business conditions index fell to minus 3.23 in May from positive 0.63 in April. The prices paid measure of inflation rose to 69.57 -- the highest since the start of the data series in July 2001. In April it was 57.29.

The Philly Fed diffusion index rose to negative 15.6 in May from negative 24.9 in April.

June crude closed at a one-week low of $124.12 an ounce Thursday, down 10 cents for the session, after dropping to a low of $120.90. June gold climbed $13.50, or 1.6%, to close at $880 an ounce Thursday in New York.

After stabilizing at 20 the past three months, the NAHB/Wells Fargo home builders' sentiment index fell back in May to 19, only one point above the record low of 18 set in December. Builders' assessment of current sales have never been gloomier in the 23-year history of the survey, with the sales index falling to 17 in May from the previous record low of 18 in April. The sales climate is so bad that the builders say that only a federal subsidy for home buyers will turn the market around.

On the heels of a strong vote for passage in the House, senators on Thursday approved a $289 billion, five-year farm bill that is under a presidential veto threat. Senators voted 81-to-15, easily attaining the two-thirds majority needed to override a veto. On Wednesday, House lawmakers voted 318-to-106 to pass the bill, also securing the two-thirds majority needed for an override.

Natural-gas prices led the losses in the energy sector, with the June futures contract trading 37 cents, or 3.2%, lower at $11.23 per million British thermal units, its lowest level in over a week. Natural-gas inventories rose by 93 billion cubic feet for the week ended May 9, the Energy Department said Thursday. Analysts at Strategic Energy & Economic Research expected the data to show an increase of 85 billion. Total stocks now stand at 1.529 trillion cubic feet, down 286 billion cubic feet from the year-ago level but 3 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, the government data said.

Icahn said in a statement that during the last 10 days he has acquired 59 million shares of Yahoo stock and has applied for federal clearance to by $2.5 billion worth of the company's shares. Icahn said the current Yahoo board "acted irrationally and lost the faith of shareholders" when it turned down Microsoft Corp.'s $33 a share offer for the company. Paulson & Co., the New York hedge-fund manager run by John Paulson, bought a 3.6 percent stake in Yahoo! Inc. and will support investor Carl Icahn's effort to push the company back into takeover talks with Microsoft Corp.
Paulson owned 50 million shares of the Sunnyvale, California-based Internet company as of March 31, according to a filing today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


Foreign owners sold $48.2 billion in U.S. financial assets in March compared with net purchases of $48.9 billion in February, the Treasury Department reported Thursday. The U.S. must import about $60 billion in capital every month to finance the balance of payments deficit.

Industrial output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities dropped 0.7% in April in a broad-based decline led by falling production of motor vehicles, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday. Output of factories fell 0.8%, the biggest decline since September 2005. Industrial production has risen 0.2% in the past year, and is down 1.2% since January.

The DJ Health Care Providers Index is down 21% in the past 6 months and down 15% in the past 3 months.

Obama's overall delegate total is 1,895, compared to 1,718 for his rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton. It takes 2,026 to clinch the nomination at the party convention in Denver this summer.

Nordstrom Inc. and Kohl's Corp. on Thursday both reported lower first-quarter earnings and warned that the tough retail climate in the U.S. will likely cause even more damage to their bottom lines in the coming months. Nordstrom warned that it expects 2008 earnings of $2.65 to $2.80 a share, down from a prior targeted range of $2.75 to $2.90 a share. Kohl's said it expects to earn 70 cents to 74 cents a share in the second quarter and $2.95 to $3.15 a share for the full year, below estimates of $3.20.

Republican John McCain declared for the first time Thursday he believes the Iraq war can be won by 2013, although he rejected suggestions that his talk of a timetable put him on the same side as Democrats clamoring for full-scale troop withdrawals.

Gov't Numbers

5/15/08 Gov't Numbers

For 2008, Illinois Tool Works predicted earnings from continuing operations to come in the range of $3.35 to $3.49 a share with revenue growth of 8% to 12%.

The OPEC oil cartel, in its monthly report, estimated world oil demand this year to average 86.95 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, up 1.2% from last year and a slight downward revision from its previous estimate of 86.97 million barrels a day.

CBS Corp.said Thursday it inked a deal to buy CNet Networks Inc. for $11.50 a share in cash. The deal values the operator of CNET, ZDNet, GameSpot.com, TV.com, mp3.com, CNET news.com and other Web sites at about $1.8 billion.

The average U.S. gasoline price rose about 2 cents to $3.78 a gallon in the last day, according to the Daily Fuel Gauge Report from the Automobile Association of America.

UBS sees light sweet crude this year at $115 a barrel, up 32% from its earlier forecast, oil in 2009 at $120 a barrel, up 54% from its previous view and oil in 2010 at $116.50 a barrel, up 53% from its previous view. UBS on Thursday upgraded oil major Chevron to buy from neutral.

Retailer J.C. Penney Co Inc reported a 50 percent drop in quarterly profit on Thursday as its middle-income shoppers pulled back on spending amid the U.S. economic downturn.

John Edwards, former candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination and champion of organised labour, sought to rally his party and bring the primary race to a close by providing Barack Obama with his highest-profile endorsement in months.

The number of newly laid off workers applying for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week, indicating the weak economy was still weighing on the job market.The Labor Department reported Thursday that applications for jobless benefits rose by 6,000 last week to 371,000. The number of people who remained on the jobless benefit rolls after drawing an initial week of aid increased 28,000 to 3.06 million in the week ended May 3, the latest period for which figures were available.

Blackstone Group LP, manager of the world's largest private-equity fund, said it had a loss of $66.5 million in the first quarter as leveraged buyouts evaporated and the value of companies it owns declined. Blackstone Group LP President Tony James said banks are mistaken if they think credit markets have begun a sustained recovery. ``It's not clear to me if it's a permanent upswing as I think many of the banks are saying or the eye of the hurricane,'' James told reporters on a conference call today.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, leased about 80 percent of the world's deepest-drilling offshore rigs to explore prospects including the Western Hemisphere's biggest discovery in decades.

The New York Fed's "Empire State" general business conditions index fell to minus 3.23 in May from positive 0.63 in April. The prices paid measure of inflation rose to 69.57 -- the highest since the start of the data series in July 2001. In April it was 57.29.

The Philly Fed diffusion index rose to negative 15.6 in May from negative 24.9 in April.

June crude closed at a one-week low of $124.12 an ounce Thursday, down 10 cents for the session, after dropping to a low of $120.90. June gold climbed $13.50, or 1.6%, to close at $880 an ounce Thursday in New York.

After stabilizing at 20 the past three months, the NAHB/Wells Fargo home builders' sentiment index fell back in May to 19, only one point above the record low of 18 set in December. Builders' assessment of current sales have never been gloomier in the 23-year history of the survey, with the sales index falling to 17 in May from the previous record low of 18 in April. The sales climate is so bad that the builders say that only a federal subsidy for home buyers will turn the market around.

On the heels of a strong vote for passage in the House, senators on Thursday approved a $289 billion, five-year farm bill that is under a presidential veto threat. Senators voted 81-to-15, easily attaining the two-thirds majority needed to override a veto. On Wednesday, House lawmakers voted 318-to-106 to pass the bill, also securing the two-thirds majority needed for an override.

Natural-gas prices led the losses in the energy sector, with the June futures contract trading 37 cents, or 3.2%, lower at $11.23 per million British thermal units, its lowest level in over a week. Natural-gas inventories rose by 93 billion cubic feet for the week ended May 9, the Energy Department said Thursday. Analysts at Strategic Energy & Economic Research expected the data to show an increase of 85 billion. Total stocks now stand at 1.529 trillion cubic feet, down 286 billion cubic feet from the year-ago level but 3 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, the government data said.

Icahn said in a statement that during the last 10 days he has acquired 59 million shares of Yahoo stock and has applied for federal clearance to by $2.5 billion worth of the company's shares. Icahn said the current Yahoo board "acted irrationally and lost the faith of shareholders" when it turned down Microsoft Corp.'s $33 a share offer for the company. Paulson & Co., the New York hedge-fund manager run by John Paulson, bought a 3.6 percent stake in Yahoo! Inc. and will support investor Carl Icahn's effort to push the company back into takeover talks with Microsoft Corp.
Paulson owned 50 million shares of the Sunnyvale, California-based Internet company as of March 31, according to a filing today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


Foreign owners sold $48.2 billion in U.S. financial assets in March compared with net purchases of $48.9 billion in February, the Treasury Department reported Thursday. The U.S. must import about $60 billion in capital every month to finance the balance of payments deficit.

Industrial output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities dropped 0.7% in April in a broad-based decline led by falling production of motor vehicles, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday. Output of factories fell 0.8%, the biggest decline since September 2005. Industrial production has risen 0.2% in the past year, and is down 1.2% since January.

The DJ Health Care Providers Index is down 21% in the past 6 months and down 15% in the past 3 months.

Obama's overall delegate total is 1,895, compared to 1,718 for his rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton. It takes 2,026 to clinch the nomination at the party convention in Denver this summer.

Nordstrom Inc. and Kohl's Corp. on Thursday both reported lower first-quarter earnings and warned that the tough retail climate in the U.S. will likely cause even more damage to their bottom lines in the coming months. Nordstrom warned that it expects 2008 earnings of $2.65 to $2.80 a share, down from a prior targeted range of $2.75 to $2.90 a share. Kohl's said it expects to earn 70 cents to 74 cents a share in the second quarter and $2.95 to $3.15 a share for the full year, below estimates of $3.20.

Republican John McCain declared for the first time Thursday he believes the Iraq war can be won by 2013, although he rejected suggestions that his talk of a timetable put him on the same side as Democrats clamoring for full-scale troop withdrawals.

Gov't Numbers

5/15/08 Gov't Numbers

For 2008, Illinois Tool Works predicted earnings from continuing operations to come in the range of $3.35 to $3.49 a share with revenue growth of 8% to 12%.

The OPEC oil cartel, in its monthly report, estimated world oil demand this year to average 86.95 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, up 1.2% from last year and a slight downward revision from its previous estimate of 86.97 million barrels a day.

CBS Corp.said Thursday it inked a deal to buy CNet Networks Inc. for $11.50 a share in cash. The deal values the operator of CNET, ZDNet, GameSpot.com, TV.com, mp3.com, CNET news.com and other Web sites at about $1.8 billion.

The average U.S. gasoline price rose about 2 cents to $3.78 a gallon in the last day, according to the Daily Fuel Gauge Report from the Automobile Association of America.

UBS sees light sweet crude this year at $115 a barrel, up 32% from its earlier forecast, oil in 2009 at $120 a barrel, up 54% from its previous view and oil in 2010 at $116.50 a barrel, up 53% from its previous view. UBS on Thursday upgraded oil major Chevron to buy from neutral.

Retailer J.C. Penney Co Inc reported a 50 percent drop in quarterly profit on Thursday as its middle-income shoppers pulled back on spending amid the U.S. economic downturn.

John Edwards, former candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination and champion of organised labour, sought to rally his party and bring the primary race to a close by providing Barack Obama with his highest-profile endorsement in months.

The number of newly laid off workers applying for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week, indicating the weak economy was still weighing on the job market.The Labor Department reported Thursday that applications for jobless benefits rose by 6,000 last week to 371,000. The number of people who remained on the jobless benefit rolls after drawing an initial week of aid increased 28,000 to 3.06 million in the week ended May 3, the latest period for which figures were available.

Blackstone Group LP, manager of the world's largest private-equity fund, said it had a loss of $66.5 million in the first quarter as leveraged buyouts evaporated and the value of companies it owns declined. Blackstone Group LP President Tony James said banks are mistaken if they think credit markets have begun a sustained recovery. ``It's not clear to me if it's a permanent upswing as I think many of the banks are saying or the eye of the hurricane,'' James told reporters on a conference call today.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, leased about 80 percent of the world's deepest-drilling offshore rigs to explore prospects including the Western Hemisphere's biggest discovery in decades.

The New York Fed's "Empire State" general business conditions index fell to minus 3.23 in May from positive 0.63 in April. The prices paid measure of inflation rose to 69.57 -- the highest since the start of the data series in July 2001. In April it was 57.29.

The Philly Fed diffusion index rose to negative 15.6 in May from negative 24.9 in April.

June crude closed at a one-week low of $124.12 an ounce Thursday, down 10 cents for the session, after dropping to a low of $120.90. June gold climbed $13.50, or 1.6%, to close at $880 an ounce Thursday in New York.

After stabilizing at 20 the past three months, the NAHB/Wells Fargo home builders' sentiment index fell back in May to 19, only one point above the record low of 18 set in December. Builders' assessment of current sales have never been gloomier in the 23-year history of the survey, with the sales index falling to 17 in May from the previous record low of 18 in April. The sales climate is so bad that the builders say that only a federal subsidy for home buyers will turn the market around.

On the heels of a strong vote for passage in the House, senators on Thursday approved a $289 billion, five-year farm bill that is under a presidential veto threat. Senators voted 81-to-15, easily attaining the two-thirds majority needed to override a veto. On Wednesday, House lawmakers voted 318-to-106 to pass the bill, also securing the two-thirds majority needed for an override.

Natural-gas prices led the losses in the energy sector, with the June futures contract trading 37 cents, or 3.2%, lower at $11.23 per million British thermal units, its lowest level in over a week. Natural-gas inventories rose by 93 billion cubic feet for the week ended May 9, the Energy Department said Thursday. Analysts at Strategic Energy & Economic Research expected the data to show an increase of 85 billion. Total stocks now stand at 1.529 trillion cubic feet, down 286 billion cubic feet from the year-ago level but 3 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, the government data said.

Icahn said in a statement that during the last 10 days he has acquired 59 million shares of Yahoo stock and has applied for federal clearance to by $2.5 billion worth of the company's shares. Icahn said the current Yahoo board "acted irrationally and lost the faith of shareholders" when it turned down Microsoft Corp.'s $33 a share offer for the company. Paulson & Co., the New York hedge-fund manager run by John Paulson, bought a 3.6 percent stake in Yahoo! Inc. and will support investor Carl Icahn's effort to push the company back into takeover talks with Microsoft Corp.
Paulson owned 50 million shares of the Sunnyvale, California-based Internet company as of March 31, according to a filing today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


Foreign owners sold $48.2 billion in U.S. financial assets in March compared with net purchases of $48.9 billion in February, the Treasury Department reported Thursday. The U.S. must import about $60 billion in capital every month to finance the balance of payments deficit.

Industrial output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities dropped 0.7% in April in a broad-based decline led by falling production of motor vehicles, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday. Output of factories fell 0.8%, the biggest decline since September 2005. Industrial production has risen 0.2% in the past year, and is down 1.2% since January.

The DJ Health Care Providers Index is down 21% in the past 6 months and down 15% in the past 3 months.

Obama's overall delegate total is 1,895, compared to 1,718 for his rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton. It takes 2,026 to clinch the nomination at the party convention in Denver this summer.

Nordstrom Inc. and Kohl's Corp. on Thursday both reported lower first-quarter earnings and warned that the tough retail climate in the U.S. will likely cause even more damage to their bottom lines in the coming months. Nordstrom warned that it expects 2008 earnings of $2.65 to $2.80 a share, down from a prior targeted range of $2.75 to $2.90 a share. Kohl's said it expects to earn 70 cents to 74 cents a share in the second quarter and $2.95 to $3.15 a share for the full year, below estimates of $3.20.

Republican John McCain declared for the first time Thursday he believes the Iraq war can be won by 2013, although he rejected suggestions that his talk of a timetable put him on the same side as Democrats clamoring for full-scale troop withdrawals.

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

UNG

5/14/08 UNG

Six months ago just about every day I suggested one find a place in one's portfolio for natural gas. My choice was UNG, the U.S. Natural Gas Fund. At the time the price was in the doldrums at $35 a share. With natural gas continuing to surge in price and up about 50% in six months, it may be prudent to think about taking some profits in UNG at $55+. That's a healthy turkey sandwich.

Bernard Baruch: "Nobody ever lost money taking a profit."

The 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is now yielding 2.55%. I have mentioned shorting this note week in and week out. I have stated it is my largest position. It has had a sharp move from 1.5%. At the same time, I continue to believe that U.S. Treasuries are massively overvalued.

Freddie Mac lost 66 cents a share, or $151 million, in the first quarter, compared to a loss of 46 cents a share, or $133 million, a year ago.

Industrial output across the 15-nation euro zone fell 0.2% in March, for a 2% annual gain, Eurostat reported Wednesday.

General Motors Corp will need to raise over $9 billion in financing over the next two years to refinance existing debt and to offset projected cash losses in its auto operations in North America, Lehman Brothers analyst Brian Johnson said on Wednesday.

Clear Channel Communications Inc.signed an amended definitive agreement under which it will be acquired by an investor group for $36 a share, or a total deal value of $17.9 billion. In a statement late on Tuesday, the company said it settled litigation filed in New York and Texas with Bain Capital Partners, Thomas H. Lee Partners and a group of banks. Clear Channel's board has approved the terms and urges holders to vote for the deal. In November 2006, CCU agreed to a $39.20-a-share buyout by Thomas H. Lee Partners and Bain.

U.S. home foreclosure filings in April edged up from March and were a whopping 65 percent higher than a year earlier, real estate data firm RealtyTrac said on Wednesday. Home foreclosure filings in April totaled 243,353, up 4 percent from March, RealtyTrac, an online market of foreclosure properties, said in its U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. The figure is a total of default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions.

Deere & Co reported higher quarterly earnings on Wednesday as soaring crop prices boosted global demand for its agricultural equipment, but the company's forecast for the rest of the year was below Wall Street expectations and the stock fell 6 percent. Deere Co.raised its full-year forecast for raw material costs on Wednesday to the range of $400 million to $500 million. With just $110 million spent year to date, Chief Financial Officer Michael Mack noted that soaring commodity expenses will really hit in the second half of the year. "Raw material costs, especially for vital commodities like steel, are racing ahead; well beyond what we had anticipated and we set prices for model year 2008," he said.

Bill Gross , who runs the world's biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., called Treasuries ``totally overvalued'' as consumer prices rise, according to a report in AsianInvestor magazine. Pimco has moved away from Treasuries and into high-quality credit-market securities, especially those issued by financial institutions, over the past four weeks, Hong Kong-based AsianInvestor reported.

Bond fund leader Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian on Wednesday said the Federal Reserve does not have the tools to deal with the U.S. housing crisis and rapidly rising consumer prices, leaving it to lawmakers to avert a severe recession. The co-head of the world's largest bond fund company said U.S. policy makers "do not have good policy tools to deal with the destabilizing combination of asset price deflation, and goods inflation."

Bank of America Corp., the nation's biggest consumer bank, said losses on home-equity loans will be even worse than predicted three weeks ago, adding to evidence that more consumers are falling behind on debts.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third- largest U.S. bank, may eliminate 4,000 of its own staff as it brings on employees from the purchase of Bear Stearns Cos. and financial markets continue to deteriorate, a person familiar with the matter said.

For the first time, it appears that more than half of all insured Americans are taking prescription medicines regularly for chronic health problems, a study shows.The most widely used drugs are those to lower high blood pressure and cholesterol -- problems often linked to heart disease, obesity and diabetes.The numbers were gathered last year by Medco Health Solutions Inc., which manages prescription benefits for about one in five Americans.

Fund managers believe that inflation is set to rise over the next 12 months, according to Merrill Lynch's monthly survey of managers for May.
According to the report, a net 25% of managers believe that global core inflation will be higher in a year's time, up from 7% who held this position in April and 17% in March.This opinion was borne out in data this week from the U.K., where the rate of growth in consumer prices jumped to 3% in April.

Obama announced his pickup Wednesday of two superdelegates: Rep. Peter Visclosky of Indiana and Democrats Abroad chair Christine Schon Marques. Also endorsing Obama were three former Securities and Exchange Commission chairmen — William Donaldson, David Ruder, and Arthur Levitt Jr., who was appointed by former President Clinton. The campaign released a joint statement by the former SEC chiefs, well as former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, that praised Obama's "positive leadership and judgment" on economic issues. "We are aware of the reasoned approach Mr. Obama has taken in analyzing the current financial crisis and the need for balanced regulatory reform," the statement said. "We believe that such a constructive approach can be extended broadly in the economic area as well as elsewhere."

Futures traders have increased their bets that the Federal Reserve will start raising rates in late November after a period of holding rates at the current 2% level. The November fed funds futures contract Wednesday mid-morning priced in about a 56% chance that the central bank will raise its key interest rate by a quarter-point when it meets in late October, to 2.25%, up from 48% odds at the Tuesday settlement and only 16% Monday.

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King signaled he is about done cutting interest rates. King said today he expects inflation to breach the government's 3 percent limit for ``several quarters'' and the central bank's forecasts show further rate cuts may make matters worse. Reducing the Bank of England's benchmark rate to 4.5 percent from the current 5 percent would risk unacceptably high inflation, the central bank's forecasts show.

Real average weekly earnings fell by 0.5 percent in April
according to the BLS.

Henry Ford:"An idealist is one who helps the other fellow
to make a profit."

Gold for June delivery fell $3.10 to close at $866.50
an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It touched
an intraday low of $864. The contract has now suffered a
drop of $19.30, or 2.2%, since the end of last week.

June crude falls $1.58 to close at $124.22/brl in NY.
June natural gas ends at $11.60/mln BTUs, up 18 cents.

UnitedHealth Group traded at a new 52-week low.

HP

5/13/08 HP

Hewlett-Packard Co. has agreed to buy Electronic Data Systems Corp. for about $12.6 billion in cash to build a technology-services company that could challenge IBM. The companies said Tuesday their boards had unanimously approved the deal, in which EDS shareholders would get $25 per share. That is a premium of almost 25 percent over what EDS had been trading on Friday. Word of the talks emerged Monday.

Single-family home prices dropped 7.7% in the first quarter in the largest year-over-year decline since the National Association of Realtors began reporting prices in 1982. The median sales price fell to $196,300, down 4.8% compared with the last three months of 2007.

The Commerce Department says retail sales fell in April as Americans cut back due to soaring gasoline prices and a slumping economy. However, aside from sales of automobiles, retail sales performed better than economists expected.Investors heard some reassuring words from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who says financial market turmoil has begun to wane. However, he says the credit crisis is "still far from over."

The economic downturn is hitting roughly one in 10 middle-aged and older Americans especially hard, compelling them to borrow money for everyday living expenses and to seek help from family, friends or charities, according to a survey released Tuesday by the AARP.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. on Tuesday said first-quarter profits rose 6.9 percent, but the world's largest retailer offered a guarded outlook as consumers wrestle with higher energy and food costs.

Prices that U.S. residents paid for imported goods rose 1.8% in April, the Labor Department reported Tuesday, as prices for petroleum and other products gained. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a gain of 1.8%. The price for imported petroleum rose 4.4%. The price for non-petroleum products rose 1.1% for the second consecutive month - matching the largest one-month gain for the index since these prices were first published monthly in December 1988. The price for non-fuel imports rose 1.0% -- matching the prior month's gain - the largest one-month increase since the index was first published in December 2001.

Consumption will rise by 1.03 million barrels per day (bpd), 230,000 bpd less than the previous forecast, the IEA said. The agency has more than halved its estimate from 2.2 million bpd in July 2007 and may cut it further.

June crude climbed as high as $126.98 a barrel in electronic trading to mark a fresh intraday record. Gains in energy futures were led by a 2.1% rise in June heating oil, which was last at $3.63 a gallon. June crude closed at $125.80 a barrel in New York Tuesday, up $1.57, or 1.3%.

With downward revisions to February's inventory growth, the report indicates stronger final sales and weaker inventory growth in the first quarter than first estimated in the report on gross domestic product.

Palatin has undertaken a strategic restructuring with the following elements and objectives:

-- Following a detailed evaluation, including review of regulatory and
commercial information and data on its new melanocortin compounds under
development for sexual dysfunction, Palatin has discontinued
development of bremelanotide for the treatment of male and female
sexual dysfunction;

-- Developing bremelanotide as a therapeutic drug for treatment of
hemorrhagic shock and related indications (shock induced by blood loss,
such as secondary to surgery or trauma);

-- Initiating a Phase 2A study this quarter with PL-3994, Palatin's
natriuretic peptide receptor A agonist compound, in patients with
controlled hypertension;

-- Initiating a Phase 2A study of PL-3994 during the next fiscal year for
treatment of acute congestive heart failure;

-- Advancing new Palatin compound PL-6983, which in animal models causes
significantly lower increases in blood pressure than seen with
bremelanotide, into Phase 1 clinical studies for treatment of male and
female sexual dysfunction;

-- Continuing its melanocortin receptor-based collaboration with
AstraZeneca AB on developing compounds for treating obesity; and

-- Effecting an immediate reduction in force of 30% of the Company's
employees.

June gold closed at $869.60 an ounce in New York Tuesday, down $15.30, or 1.7%, for the session.

Carl Icahn is considering launching a proxy fight at
Yahoo Inc , CNBC reported on Tuesday.

Whole Foods Market Inc on
Tuesday posted lower quarterly net profit, missing analysts'
estimates by a penny, as it booked charges related to its $565
million acquisition of rival Wild Oats Markets in August.
Despite a 28 percent rise in sales during the quarter, the natural and organic foods seller left its fiscal 2008 sales outlook unchanged, and shares fell nearly 8 percent in after-hours trade.

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Housing

5/12/08 Housing

Scott Burns: "Every three months the Federal Reserve estimates the value of our collective tangible assets, financial assets and liabilities to arrive at our net worth. It's the whole enchilada — all our cars, our houses, our durable "stuff," bank deposits, stocks, bonds and mutual funds. Everything. Then it subtracts all our mortgages, consumer credit and other debt to arrive at our net worth.At the end of 2007, for instance, our collective net worth was $57.7 trillion, an unusual drop from $58.3 trillion at the end of the previous quarter. Divide $57.7 trillion by the $120-a-barrel price of oil, and you get 481 billion barrels of oil as the value of America, a fraction of our national value in 1998, 1995 or even 1990."

Brett Steenbarger: "Friday's market showed 797 new 20-day highs and 747 fresh 20-day lows--more mixed performance. I cannot imagine the market sustaining a significant bull move on such a selective basis."

John Hussman: "With the U.S. stock market still relatively overbought in an unfavorable Market Climate, there is continued risk of substantial and possibly abrupt weakness. As I've noted frequently, I rarely have much of an opinion on near-term direction except when conditions are either overbought in an unfavorable Climate or oversold in a favorable one. We observed some initial weakness late last week, but we remain braced for more significant trouble. At the same time, we have to recognize that the rebound through early last week brought market internals not far from the point that would begin to feed purely speculative “trend chasing.” So while we're defensive here, you can think of us as having something of a “stop” at which we would cover part of our short-call option hedges (leaving the defensive puts in place) – effectively trading some risk of time decay in return for a modest exposure to rising prices in the event that investors become resolutely speculative. Again, here and now, we remain firmly hedged based on prevailing conditions, and my opinion (which we don't trade on) is that we should allow for fresh short-term trouble as well."

Hewlett-Packard Co. confirmed after Monday's closing bell that the company is in "advanced discussions" with Electronic Data Systems regarding a "possible business combination" between the two companies. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier in the day that the companies were discussion a merger deal worth between $12 billion and $13 billion.

June crude closed at $124.23 a barrel, down $1.73, or 1.4%, for the session. June gold closed at $884.90 an ounce in New York Monday, down 90 cents for the session.

Through the first seven months of this budget year, the federal deficit totals $152.2 billion, nearly double the $80.8 billion deficit during the same period in 2007.

Consumer spending excluding autos grew only 0.1 percent last month on a seasonally adjusted basis, less than the 0.6 percent increase in March, said SpendingPulse, the retail data service of MasterCard Advisors, which is a unit of MasterCard Worldwide.
"In general, consumers are spending less. Without gasoline, they are spending a lot less," said Kamalesh Rao, director of economic research at MasterCard Advisors.
Retail sales excluding cars and gasoline fell 0.7 percent in April versus March.

Gas prices, meanwhile, rose above an average $3.67 a gallon at the pump, following oil's recent path higher.

Mike Burk: "There are no indications that the current decline has played out and seasonally next week has been modestly negative. I expect the major indices to be lower on Friday May 16 than they were on Friday May 9.

Barack Obama's wave of superdelegate endorsements puts him within reach of the Democratic presidential nomination by the end of the primary season on June 3 — even if he loses half of the remaining six contests. The Illinois senator has picked up 26 superdelegates in the past week. At that pace, he will reach the number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination — 2,025 — in the next three weeks, when delegates from the remaining primaries are included.
Obama has 1,871.5 delegates, including endorsements from party and elected officials known as superdelegates. Clinton has 1,697, according to the latest tally by The Associated Press. That leaves Obama just 153.5 delegates short of the number needed to win the nomination at the party's national convention this August in Denver.
There are 217 delegates at stake in the six remaining primaries, in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota. Even if Clinton wins most of those delegates, Obama could reach the magic number by the time South Dakota and Montana vote on June 3.

From last November through this April, American women aged 20 and up gained nearly 300,000 jobs, according to the household survey of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). At the same time, American men lost nearly 700,000 jobs.

Toll Brithers said Tuesday second-quarter home-building revenues fell 30% to $817.9 million. "The just-completed spring selling season was quite weak," Chairman and CEO Robert Toll said in a statement. Toll Brothers said it's looking to use its $2.5 billion of available capital to make acquisitions that fit its criteria of "high-end communities at bargain prices," but said it hasn't seen any yet.

Monday, May 12, 2008

Pension Funds

5/11/08 Pension Funds

U.S. first class mail rises to 42 cents on Monday.

According to the Washington Post, the funds that pay pension and health benefits to police officers, teachers and millions of other public employees across the country are facing a shortfall that could soon run into trillions of dollars. But the accounting techniques used by state and local governments to balance their pension books disguise the extent of the crisis facing these retirees and the taxpayers who may ultimately be called on to pay the freight, according to a growing number of leading financial analysts.

Brazilian President Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva wants to get his country into OPEC. With a booming biofuel business alongside new oil reserves, Brazil is poised to become a global energy leader.

China has established a homegrown company to make passenger jumbo jets, state media reported Sunday -- a step forward in the country's quest to become less dependent on Boeing and Airbus.

The number of people holding part-time jobs for economic reasons swelled to 5.2 million in April, up sharply from 4.4 million a year earlier.

"Productivity gains were due primarily to declines in hours worked," the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics explained. Those hours fell at a 1.8 percent pace, the biggest drop in five years.

Vodafone Group Plc may offer 20 billion pounds ($39 billion) to take over MTN Group Ltd., Africa's largest mobile-phone company, the Sunday Times reported, without saying where it got the information.

Zman: "The press gripes about the rising price of oil on an hourly basis. But high oil and commensurately high gasoline prices may turn out to be the least of the consumer's problems this Summer. Note the rally in Eastern, high BTU coal prices year to date. That's 50% of electricity generation going ballistic. Natural gas is another 20% of U.S. generation, up 50% YTD. Even spot uranium prices has spiraled higher (look for the impact to be felt in 2010 when many longer term contracts roll off). Speculators get the blame for the rally in crude and certainly they have played their part but there are fundamental pressures in each these fuels that are now only exacerbated by the possibility of a now perceived bottoming in the U.S. economy and subsequent recovery."

MBIA says fair value of derivatives down $3.54 billion.

The Chinese central bank raised banks' reserve requirement by a half-point to 16.5% Monday to curb excess liquidity and control soaring inflation.

JA Solar reiterated its forecast for 2008 revenue in the range of $1.03 billion to $1.14 billion and for gross margin to remain above 20%.

An earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8 struck China's Sichuan province Monday.

China's consumer price index accelerated to 8.5% in April from the year-ago month, Chinese state media reported on Monday.

Sunday, May 11, 2008

Inflation

5/10/08 Inflation

According to Bloomberg, India's inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in almost 3 1/2 years, underscoring the threat from rising food prices that prompted the government to extend a ban on futures trading this week. Wholesale prices rose 7.61 percent in the week ended April 26 from a year earlier, after gaining 7.57 percent in the previous week, the government said today.

China's producer price index, a key indicator of inflation, rose 8.1 percent in April over the same month a year earlier, the government reported Friday, as a top economic official sought new controls to cool rising prices.

Crude oil and corn prices surged to record highs on Friday.

Barack Obama for the first time on Friday overtook Hillary Clinton’s supportamong the unelected “super-delegates” who will ultimately settle the Democratic nomination amid signs that people around Mrs Clinton were pushing for her to become Mr Obama’s running mate. Nine super-delegates on Friday endorsed Mr Obama, including one, Donald Payne, an African-American congressman from New Jersey, who switched his support from Mrs Clinton saying that Mr Obama “can bring about the change the country needs”.

Clyde M. See Jr., a former Democratic speaker of the West Virginia House of Delegates and two-time gubernatorial candidate: "There's a lot of bigotry in the country, not just West Virginia." It should be noted that West Virginia is 97% white. When it's all said and done, West Virginia has only 28 pledged delegates.
"The best way for Obama to make inroads with white voters in blue-collar, leaning-red states is to push economic issues to the front and continue to depict the war as a money pit," said Thomas F. Schaller, an associate professor of political science at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County.

Brian Pretti: "Treasury auctions of the last month or so have experienced a paucity of foreign buyers show up to bid. Let's put it this way, if this trend of lackluster response to Treasury auctions on the part of the foreign community were to continue near term for whatever reason, we could indeed be looking at a serious issue for Treasury yields (meaning they have fallen too far to the downside to attract foreign interest). We'll just have to see what happens."

China needs to save less to boost consumption and narrow the trade surplus, said People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan.

ANB Financial N.A. of Bentonville, Ark., was closed by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation was named receiver, the FDIC said late Friday. This marks the third bank failure of the year.

Iraq's government on Saturday agreed a truce with the movement of Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to end weeks of fighting in an eastern Baghdad slum between Shi'ite militia and security.

Peter Schiff: "Soon, as credit card delinquencies rise and losses on pools of securitized credit card debt mount, those supplying the credit will finally get wise to the fact they will never get their money back. As a result the market for such debt will dry up even more quickly than did the market for subprime mortgages. Cards will therefore be much harder to come by and will have much lower limits then they do today. Limited to only the cash in their wallets, Americans will finally be forced to dramatically curtail their spending, and the recession will finally gather serious momentum."

A senior Democrat strategist, familiar with discussions at the highest levels of the Obama camp, has revealed that Mr Obama is now confident of the support of around 120 of the remaining 260 undeclared superdelegates. His aides believe he will only need between 70 and 80 to be sure of the nomination if he wins the Oregon, Montana and South Dakota primaries as expected after this month.
The strategist said Mr Obama has "no intention" of making Mrs Clinton his running mate, but that he is prepared to offer an olive branch to her supporters by seating delegates from Michigan and Florida, won by Mrs Clinton but excluded because they broke party rules.