Saturday, March 01, 2003

3/1/03 The Threat Assessment - Must Reading For Saturday

The Department of Transportation is proposing to establish a Privacy Act of Records which will classify all commercial airline passengers as suspects of terrorism and a threat to national security. No court order will be required to check your bank balance and credit card activity prior to you boarding a plane. This is being done under the heading of risk assessment and is called the threat assessment process. Delta Airlines has agreed to be the first airline to implement this process. I will never fly Delta again, and urge all Americans to do the same.

Pastor Martin Niemoller, Dachau, 1944: "In Germany they first came for the Communists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Communist. Then they came for the Jews, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Jew. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a trade unionist. Then they came for the Catholics, and I didn't speak up because I was a Protestant. Then they came for me- and by that time no one was left to speak up."

Abraham Lincoln: "Those who deny freedom to others, deserve it not for themselves; and, under a just God, can not long retain it."

Thomas Jefferson in a 1787 letter to James Madison: "A little rebellion, now and then, is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical."

Ezra Taft Benson: "Man is superior to government and should remain master over it, not the other way around."

Thomas Jefferson: " That government is best which governs the least, because its people discipline themselves....the course of history shows that as government grows, liberty decreases."

Abraham Lincoln: "We all declare for libery; but in using the same word we do not mean all the same thing. With some the word libery may mean for each man to do as he pleases with himself, and the product of his labor; while with others, the same word may mean for some men to do as they please with other men, and the product of other men's labor. Here are two, not only different, but incompatible things, called by the same name-liberty. And it follows that each of the things is, by the respective parties, called by two different and incompatible names-liberty and tyranny.

For the first time in a recent poll less than 50% of registered voters would support Bush for re-election.

Crude oil inventories in the U.S. are much lower than they were during the Gulf War.

Oil price increases pushed inflation to 2.3% in February in the E.U. The ECB seeks to keep inflation below 2%.

Canada's economy grew at an annualized 1.6% rate in the fourth quarter. The consumer price index report showed overall inflation at 4 1/2% in January, the highest level in more than 11 years.

Switzerland's second largest bank, Credit Suisse, will cut 1,250 jobs. Clariant, a chemical company, will cut 1700 jobs. The national airline, Swiss, will cut 700 jobs. Switzerland's GDP grew by 0.1% in 2002, the lowest in 9 years.

Fitch Ratings expects bankruptcies to increase by approximately 8% in 2003 to 1.65 million.

The magazine Red Herring is closing.

The number of homes in foreclosure leaped by 23% in San Francisco in 2002. Nationwide home loans in foreclosure were at a record high last year. This will become a major story in 2003.

About 1 in 5 jobs in California's Santa Clara County have been lost since the height of the boom only 26 months ago.

Now for some lighter stuff. For some reason I keep getting tons of requests asking for the names of my horses. They are Melenka, Dewey, Napersianka, and Kapryscious. Dewey is a thoroughbred and the others are arabians.

Lastly, many have written that I seem to be a person they could like very much but that, for some reason, they feel uncomfortable. Let me say that I write this blog and say what I say because either it's the truth or an opinion I hold which I believe has a foundation in the truth. I am not asking you to breathe the same air I breathe. My love ones share that with me.
3/1/03 The Threat Assessment - Must Reading For Saturday

The Department of Transportation is proposing to establish a Privacy Act of Records which will classify all commercial airline passengers as suspects of terrorism and a threat to national security. No court order will be required to check your bank balance and credit card activity prior to you boarding a plane. This is being done under the heading of risk assessment and is called the threat assessment process. Delta Airlines has agreed to be the first airline to implement this process. I will never fly Delta again, and urge all Americans to do the same.

Pastor Martin Niemoller, Dachau, 1944: "In Germany they first came for the Communists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Communist. Then they came for the Jews, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Jew. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a trade unionist. Then they came for the Catholics, and I didn't speak up because I was a Protestant. Then they came for me- and by that time no one was left to speak up."

Abraham Lincoln: "Those who deny freedom to others, deserve it not for themselves; and, under a just God, can not long retain it."

Thomas Jefferson in a 1787 letter to James Madison: "A little rebellion, now and then, is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical."

Ezra Taft Benson: "Man is superior to government and should remain master over it, not the other way around."

Thomas Jefferson: " That government is best which governs the least, because its people discipline themselves....the course of history shows that as government grows, liberty decreases."

Abraham Lincoln: "We all declare for libery; but in using the same word we do not mean all the same thing. With some the word libery may mean for each man to do as he pleases with himself, and the product of his labor; while with others, the same word may mean for some men to do as they please with other men, and the product of other men's labor. Here are two, not only different, but incompatible things, called by the same name-liberty. And it follows that each of the things is, by the respective parties, called by two different and incompatible names-liberty and tyranny.

For the first time in a recent poll less than 50% of registered voters would support Bush for re-election.

Crude oil inventories in the U.S. are much lower than they were during the Gulf War.

Oil price increases pushed inflation to 2.3% in February in the E.U. The ECB seeks to keep inflation below 2%.

Canada's economy grew at an annualized 1.6% rate in the fourth quarter. The consumer price index report showed overall inflation at 4 1/2% in January, the highest level in more than 11 years.

Switzerland's second largest bank, Credit Suisse, will cut 1.250 jobs. Clariant, a chemical company, will cut 1700 jobs. The national airline, Swiss, will cut 700 jobs. Switzerland's GDP grew by 0.1% in 2002, the lowest in 9 years.

Fitch Ratings expects bankruptcies to increase by approximately 8% in 2003 to 1.65 million.

The magazine Red Herring is closing.

The number of homes in foreclosure leaped by 23% in San Francisco in 2002. Nationwide home loans in foreclosure were at a record high last year. This will become a major story in 2003.

About 1 in 5 jobs in California's Santa Clara County have been lost since the height of the boom only 26 months ago.

Now for some lighter stuff. For some reason I keep getting tons of requests asking for the names of my horses. They are Melenka, Dewey, Napersianka, and Kapryscious. Dewey is a thoroughbred and the others are arabians.

Lastly, many have written that I seem to be a person they could like very much but that, for some reason, they feel uncomfortable. Let me say that I write this blog and say what I say because either it's the truth or an opinion I hold which I believe has a foundation in the truth. I am not asking you to breathe the same air I breathe. My love ones share that with me.
3/1/03 The Threat Assessment - Must Reading For Saturday

The Department of Transportation is proposing to establish a Privacy Act of Records which will classify all commercial airline passengers as suspects of terrorism and a threat to national security. No court order will be required to check your bank balance and credit card activity prior to you boarding a plane. This is being done under the heading of risk assessment and is called the threat assessment process. Delta Airlines has agreed to be the first airline to implement this process. I will never fly Delta again, and urge all Americans to do the same.

Pastor Martin Niemoller, Dachau, 1944: "In Germany they first came for the Communists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Communist. Then they came for the Jews, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Jew. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a trade unionist. Then they came for the Catholics, and I didn't speak up because I was a Protestant. Then they came for me- and by that time no one was left to speak up."

Abraham Lincoln: "Those who deny freedom to others, deserve it not for themselves; and, under a just God, can not long retain it."

Thomas Jefferson in a 1787 letter to James Madison: "A little rebellion, now and then, is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical."

Ezra Taft Benson: "Man is superior to government and should remain master over it, not the other way around."

Thomas Jefferson: " That government is best which governs the least, because its people discipline themselves....the course of history shows that as government grows, liberty decreases."

Abraham Lincoln: "We all declare for libery; but in using the same word we do not mean all the same thing. With some the word libery may mean for each man to do as he pleases with himself, and the product of his labor; while with others, the same word may mean for some men to do as they please with other men, and the product of other men's labor. Here are two, not only different, but incompatible things, called by the same name-liberty. And it follows that each of the things is, by the respective parties, called by two different and incompatible names-liberty and tyranny.

For the first time in a recent poll less than 50% of registered voters would support Bush for re-election.

Crude oil inventories in the U.S. are much lower than they were during the Gulf War.

Oil price increases pushed inflation to 2.3% in February in the E.U. The ECB seeks to keep inflation below 2%.

Canada's economy grew at an annualized 1.6% rate in the fourth quarter. The consumer price index report showed overall inflation at 4 1/2% in January, the highest level in more than 11 years.

Switzerland's second largest bank, Credit Suisse, will cut 1.250 jobs. Clariant, a chemical company, will cut 1700 jobs. The national airline, Swiss, will cut 700 jobs. Switzerland's GDP grew by 0.1% in 2002, the lowest in 9 years.

Fitch Ratings expects bankruptcies to increase by approximately 8% in 2003 to 1.65 million.

The magazine Red Herring is closing.

The number of homes in foreclosure leaped by 23% in San Francisco in 2002. Nationwide home loans in foreclosure were at a record high last year. This will become a major story in 2003.

About 1 in 5 jobs in California's Santa Clara County have been lost since the height of the boom only 26 months ago.

Now for some lighter stuff. For some reason I keep getting tons of requests asking for the names of my horses. They are Melenka, Dewey, Napersianka, and Kapryscious. Dewey is a thoroughbred and the others are arabians.

Lastly, many have written that I seem to be a person they could like very much but that, for some reason, they feel uncomfortable. Let me say that I write this blog and say what I say because either it's the truth or an opinion I hold which I believe has a foundation in the truth. I am not asking you to breathe the same air I breathe. My love ones share that with me.

Friday, February 28, 2003

2/28/03 The Duct Tape Terror Alert Reduced To Masking Tape

Jobless claims rose 11,000 to 417,000 last week, and this was the highest level of the year. Economists had been predicting a decline. We know how accurate their forecasting is. There are approximately 3.4 million people who continue to collect state jobless benefits. 30% of consumers state jobs are "hard to get".

Anne Frank: "How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world."

Microsoft signed a deal to give the Chinese government controlled access to its source code. Microsoft has pledged to invest $750 in China over three years.

Sega is involved in merger talks with Sammy Corp. of Japan. It's reported Microsoft and Electronic Arts may be interested in buying all or part of Sega. If I were Microsoft, I'd think twice about a purchase. Microsoft has made awful investments which have cost the company billions. Recently, Sega reduced its profit forecast by 90%.

Iraq could begin dismantling al-Samoud 2 missiles by Saturday. I have been a lone voice since last Fall stating that there wouldn't be a war in Iraq.

Normally January produces a large money inflow into mutual funds. This year $466 million was pulled out of stock funds, and is the first January outflow since 1990. In January 2002 almost $20 billion came into stock funds.

Unemployment in Japan climbed to a postwar high.

U.S. oil prices surge to almost $40. Look out for more price increases at the pump. Opec said there isn't much room for extra production to meet demands. Like I would believe them!

The current shortage of natural gas will not be a short-run problem.

How can we buy Mexico's vote on the Iraq resolution? What will it take? 80% of the Mexican people are against the war. It's called border blackmail.

Patrick Ewing's number 33 will be retired tonight in the Garden.

Members of Iraq's northernmost Republican Guard division (the Democratic guard was defeated in the last election which didn't take place) have moved south to Tikrit. They've bought along their suntan protection and bathing suits. The rumor is there can't be a war in Iraq until Osama bin Laden is located. Thus, a war is unlikely prior to 2050.

GM has slashed engineering costs by 48% in 6 years.

The INS has denied access to the press for months while Haitian detainees are being held. These are people who made the crossing from Haiti to Key Biscayne, and include many women and children. Maybe the INS would like to be prevented from outside air for 4 months. With a little voodoo, maybe the INS will disappear.

More than 1 out of every 5 families making $75,000 a year or more has at least one member without health insurance.

The Kyoto Protocol is a 1997 treaty which calls for businesses to reduce emissions to pre-1990 levels. The Bush Administration repudiated the treaty at the national level. However, the states are moving forward on the treaty. The libertarian Heartland Institute suggests the costs for consumers and businesses would range from $1.5 billion in Vermont to $82 billion in California.

Jed Bush's twin-engine Beechcraft King Air was hit by lightning but landed safely despite a hole in the wing. No one was injured.

Oprah became the first black woman on the Forbes list of billionaires. Good for her.

The next reality show will be called Adopt-A-Tyrant.

Palm to layoff 200 workers or 19% of their workforce.

Dallas dumps Emmitt Smith. It reminds me of SF and Joe Montana.

Anyone want to buy the Atlanta Braves? I didn't think so.


Thursday, February 27, 2003

2/27/03 The Real War And We're Getting Crushed

In the early part of 1990 I gave a talk on the coming demise of the white American male in the workplace. My audience thought I came from another planet. I did. It was and is still called the planet reality. To be successful day in and day out requires thinking and planning ahead- not just for tomorrow but years ahead. One must position themselves prior to the flood gates being opened. Over the last several years I have provided insights into the coming housing boom, and buying housing stocks when no one wanted them. The same is true with oil drilling, natural gas, gold, and, in reverse, the overpriced stock market. It was 13 years ago that I warned of the coming outsourcing boom, and to pay particular attention to India and China. Today we have a $125 billion annual trade deficit with China. India has 520,000 IT engineers and starting salaries are $5000-10,000. India's IT spending is growing at a 23% annual rate, and China's could grow by 18% in 2003. The U.S. has lost the manufacturing war, and now we are losing the knowledge war. If you wait for the Silicon Valley to return, you will be waiting for the Robert E. Lee. We are getting crushed, and it will get worse.

Results from the recent Pew Research Center poll find 43% now approve of the president's economic policy (I didn't know we had one. Glenn Hubbard just resigned) and 48% disapprove. His overall job approval dropped to 54%. The trend is clearly downward. At this rate Hillary Clinton will be your next president.

Two days ago I mentioned the consumer confidence level plunging 15 points to 64 in Frebruary. Analysts had been predicting a reading of 77. I guess they are a bit out of touch.

Divine Inc. filed for chapter 11 after burning thru about $1 billion in less than 4 years. Naturally they never earned a dime.

Spiegel warns they are running out of cash. They also own Eddie Bauer.

Crude oil prices rose to a 13 year high as inventories dropped to a 28 year low. Distillate inventories are at their lowest level in 3 years.

Canada is the largest buyer of U.S. goods and services, and Canada is the leading provider of oil and natural gas for the U.S. Recognition for Canada needs to improve big time.

Japan's Nikkei falls to a 20 year low.

The yen is trading at a 6 month high of 117 vs the dollar.

Our treaty with the Mexican government provides $345 billion in social security payments for Mexicans who have reportedly worked legally in the U.S. Maybe someone should do a bit of homework on all the back interest and principal the Mexican government owes going back to 1850. Additionally, the Mexican oil company, Pemex, was formed from confiscated U.S. oil company assets back in 1936. Before we pay Mexico a penny, they should cough up the billions they owe to Americans and U.S. companies.

The pilots say American Airlines will make a bankruptcy filing by May. Time will tell.

Boeing stock sank to an 8 year low. Why did the drop take so long to occur?

After criticizing Larry Lindsey for his remarks that a war with Iraq could cost $100 billion, the Administration acknowledged that amount would be about right. That means it will be higher.

Fred Rogers died of cancer at the age of 74. For more than 30 years he was a "neighborhood" delight.

Wednesday, February 26, 2003

2/26/03 The Waffle House

We agree to send thousands and thousands of tons of provisions to N. Korea while there are bread lines in the U.S. I think it should be mandatory for every individual in Congress and all White House inhabitants and staff members to stand on a bread line here before food leaves this country for foreign lands. In my view, all Americans live and breathe together as one. We are only as strong as the weakest soul.

Energy Secretary Abraham: the government's emergency oil stocks "should not be used to address price fluctuations." How about shortages resulting from the Venezuelan strike? Abraham is a perfect cabinet member. He talks stupid.

General Eric Shinseki, Army chief of staff, on discussing the amount of U.S. troops necessary to occupy Iraq during reconstruction: "what's been mobilized to this point- something on the order of several hundred thousand soldiers- is probably the figure that would be required." I say an international consortium of nations should provide reconstruction money and Hans Blix can be stationed in Iraq to supervise reconstruction. He's a formidable building inspector.

I was kind when I said waffle house. Bush has made a big deal of his savings and retirement proposals, and, in particular, eliminating the tax on dividends. Now he is backing away from the proposals- just like everything else. It would be nice if just once I'd see a government official walk the talk. Waffle this!!!!!

Now for the good news.

HP had disapppointing first quarter sales and expects lackluster results for the second quarter.

Britain's insurance company, Aviva, had a profit drop due to poor returns on its global life insurance business, and said 2003 would be more of the same.

Swiss Re, the world's second biggest reinsurer, announced a loss and cut its dividend for the first time since 1906(SF earthquake).

Germany's economy is stagnating. Spain's growth slows due to an export slump. UK's economic growth is the slowest in 11 years.

Roche suffers a record fourth quarter loss of $30 billion.

Abbey halves its dividend as losses mount.

Terra writes down the value of Lycos. Finally.

Argentina's economy dropped 10% in the past year and consumer prices jumped 40%. Jimmy Carter must be their economic advisor.

About 10,000 of NYC's 80,000 teachers are uncertified. 6600 are expected to get certified for the coming new school year. The remainder will be terminated.

Talking about termination, Saddam Hussein said he'd rather die than leave Iraq. When he dies, doesn't he leave Iraq?

After all the posturing, the U.S will provide Turkey with the $30 billion to cover potential losses from a possible Iraq war. This could have been agreed upon in 5 minutes weeks ago.

800 people are registered for the TED at the Monterey California Center. It starts today and runs for four days. Hopefully some innovative technology will be introduced at the conference.

Have you considered this fact? The U.S. makes up 6% of the world's population and we try to control/police/influence the remaining 94%. With that type of ratio- 6 to 94- is it surprising that we are unsuccessful in this endeavor?

Yesterday, during the final 30 minutes of trading, the market rallied and erased many statistical losses. The reason for the rally- there was a rumor on floor of peace in Iraq. Prior to yesterday the "smart money" was buying stocks based on war. Now the "smart money" is buying stocks on peace rumors. I wish someone would make up their mind. It sounds like another waffle house.

Tuesday, February 25, 2003

2/25/03 We're Running Short On Time

"Show me an oil shock and I'll show you a recession, " says Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley, and he goes on to say "it's hard to believe that the current oil shock will be the one exception." We have a double whammy with almost all-time high gas prices at the pump and natural gas futures which rose 38% Monday! Natural gas prices have doubled since November. Heating oil is at a 23 year high, and natural gas supplies are at their lowest level in 6 years.

The forecasting firm of Economy.com doesn't expect California's Santa Clara County to return to the 2001 job mark until 2011. I give them credit. I don't know what will happen tomorrow.

We must congratulate our new U.S. Treasury Secretary Mr. Snow. On Friday he said in Paris that the "threat of war is having a negative effect on the economy." The American public seems to agree since February consumer sentiment fell 15 points to a decade low.

February same-store sales for Federated Dep't Stores will decline 7 1/2 to 8 1/2% and JC Penney's 2 to 3%. WalMart's will rise 2%. KMart will reduce jobs at their headquarters by 500 to 1000.

Is it true that Martin Sheen will play Saddam Hussein and George Bush Sr. will play his son when the two debate on Saturday Night Live?

The latest Mike Tyson fight lasted 49 seconds. That's longer than it would take for the U.S. to defeat Iraq. In the first Gulf War only 9% of our bombs hit their targets. With the new smart bombs it is estimated that 90% will hit the targets. The only drawback is the knowledge factor in what is being hit. In war what counts is being right. In baseball you can get one hit in three times at bat and still win the batting championship.

Frequently, people inquire as to who I might be. Contrary to rumor, I do not impersonate the Lone Ranger. My horse's name is not Silver, and my best friend is not Tonto but rather Pasquale. You'll be able to recognize me. I'm the one who puts his pants on one leg at a time, and when not wearing pants, likes to sit around the house in a large bath towel. When seen jogging, it is often combined with shadow boxing. If that still doesn't help, I especially enjoy going to the beach at Capitola or the beaches at Pt. Reyes, and perhaps you'll recognize me by the company I keep. The person next to me will be the good-looking one.

Monday, February 24, 2003

2/24/03 Focus On What Is Not What Might Be

Over the past two weeks more and more analysts have been predicting a war rally- not in the streets but on Wall Street. The idea is to buy stocks prior to the start of the war and then to sell when the war begins. Such buying has already begun in earnest. It's not for me to criticize someone else's investing behavior. In this case, however, this is not investing. It is monumental speculation on what might be rather than the facts at hand. In addition, very few people ever were consistently successful with a mode of operation which plans to be in and out of the market within a few weeks time. That requires being right on the stocks purchased and right that they'll move in your favor within a short period of time.

The above mentioned scenario has an embryonic behaviorial pattern similar to option investing, and 80% of those purchasing put and call options lose money. Those odds are not a welcome sight to my eyes. It is more rational to stick with what works, and that is to make the trend your friend and to place the risk/reward strongly in your favor at all times. This can be accomplished thru diligence and on-going concentration and dedication.

So, when you hear what the so-called smart money is doing, have those words go in one ear and out the other, and then you will be on the road to being smart!

Sunday, February 23, 2003

2/23/03 Miracles For A Sunday

Believe in Your Heart

Believe in your heart that
something wonderful is about to happen.
Love your life.

Believe in your own power,
and in your own potential,
and your own innate goodness.

Wake every morning with the
awe of just being alive.

Discover each day the magnificent,
awesome beauty in the world.

Explore and embrace life
in yourself and in everyone
you see each day.

Reach within to find your own specialness.

Amaze yourself and rouse those around you to
the potential of each new day.

Don't be afraid to admit your less than perfect;
this is the essence
of our humanity.

Let those who love you help you.

Trust enough to be able to take.

Look with hope to the horizon of today
for today is all we truly have.

Live this day well.

Let a little sun out as well as in.
Create your own rainbows.

Be open to all your possibilities,
all possibilities and miracles.

Always believe in miracles