Saturday, February 01, 2003

2/1/03 Is January Really Over?

For the month of January The Dow dropped 3.5%, the S&P 2.7%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Unfortunately, for the most part, it is fair to state as January goes so goes the rest of the year. Yale Hirsch's statistics show that since 1950 the month of January has been the accurate barometer for the remainder of the yesr 92% of the time! There have been only four misses, and I don't believe for one minute that 2003 will be the fifth. I recommend that you plan accordingly, and make the trend your friend and place the percentages in your corner.

The other day I commented on the GDP fourth quarter numbers. I would like to elaborate. Government spending in this quarter rose sharply. Had that not been the case, the GDP number would have been a negative one. I feel very strongly that the government cannot spend our way out of a recession(yes, we are in a recession) and, if they are not prudent, can spend our way into something much more serious.

Friday, January 31, 2003

1/31/03 The Fed

The December minutes of the Fed meeting revealed that partial justification for holding rates steady at that time was the market's late year rally. Using that thinking, then rates should have been lowered on Wednesday. The rally was wiped out by recent losses.

Ray Owens, vice president and senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank in Richmond, Va said "people reading the economic tea leaves should be encouraged by strong consumer confidence." He must be on ecstasy tea leaves.

Dow Chemical cuts 4000 jobs.

Boeing's profits seen dropping in 2003.

Nikkei at a 20 year low.

eMarketer says the auto industry will account for 27% of all B2B e-commerce transactions by 2004.

According to a study prepared by Dell'Oro Group, global sales of routers will decline for the third consecutive year in 2003, and are forecast to fall 2%.

Thursday, January 30, 2003

1/30/03 Sphere Sovereignty

The above words mean decisions should be made whenever and wherever possible at the level closest to those affected by the decision. Unelected and unaccountable government employees ahould not be decision makers for healthcare reform. Consumers must be empowered to have expanded not limited choice. The Federal Employees Health Benefits Program (FEHBP) covers Congress, the White House staff, the federal judiciary, the U.S. postal service, and 9 million federal workers, retirees, and their dependents. It has been mostly successful and quite costly. The taxpayers have been paying for FEHBP. Healthcare must available for all, cost effective, and with on-going choice. Naturally, that's quite a task. So is making available an anti-aids drug cocktail for less than $1 per patient per day. India's Cipla accomplishes that feat, and it's something with which I am quite knowledgeable.

The GDP grew at a 0.7% rate in last year's 4th quarter. Consumer spending increased at a 1% rate for that period- the weakest since the 1st quarter of 1993. There was a 7.3% drop in spending on durable goods, such as, autos, and that was the biggest drop in about 12 years. However, government spending rose at a 4.6% annual rate, and this reflects an increased size and scope of governemnt. Bush campaigned on the theme "my opponent trust goverment, I trust you." With the growing loss of personal freedoms and the lack of fiscal responsibility, I don't believe that campaign slogan could be made today.

Jobless claims pick up again.

Disney's Eisner got a $5 million bonus in 2002. Meanwhile, the Disney stockholders lost their shirts.

Goodyear may trim their workforce.

The 2 month oil strike in Venezuela has forced at least 25,000 companies to go out of business.

Last year Florida's exports to its key Latin American trading partners fell by 25% or almost $4 billion.

Bank One to cut 700 jobs in Chicago.

GM has a 165 day supply of the Saturn LS at its plant in Wilmington, Del. That's double the norm. Chrysler's PT Cruiser has 125 days of inventory. The Ford Focus, Thunderbird, and Mustang have high inventory numbers. The Crown Victoria and the Chevy Astro are seriously overstocked. The list goes on and on. You can expect plant downtimes and lower prices for many vehicles as well as greater incentives. Auto profits will be lower.

Publilius Syrus: "Never promise more than you can perform."

Wednesday, January 29, 2003

1/29/03 Only 5%

General MacArthur: "Expect only 5% of an intelligence report to be accurate. The trick of a good commander is to isolate the 5%."

That 5% maybe missing in the Bush healthcare plan. It requires senior citizens to enroll in HMOs. The problem- HMOs aren't available in many rural states, such as, Iowa. Medicare currently does not cover any outpatient prescription drug costs for its 41 million enrollees. Right now 4 in 10 seniors have no drug coverage. The number of HMOs willing to insure seniors has dropped from 346 to 153, and continues to drop.

The primary coalition necessary for going to war is to have the backing of the American people. That support comes before a unified front comprised of various nations.

More than 40 states have budget shortfalls totalling $70 billion. "States are facing a perfect storm with deteriorating tax bases, an explosion of health care costs, coupled with a virtual collapse of capital gains tax revenues and corporate profit taxes," said Raymond Scheppach, executive director of the National Governors Association.

This is the first January in 30 years that there hasn't been an IPO.

Durable goods in December rose 0.2%. Economists had predicted an increase of 0.9%.

The FTSE is at a 7 1/2 year low.

The Fed will not change rates today.

The German economics minister lowered his forecast for growth in 2003 to 1%.

AT&T wireless to cut capital spending by 40%.

Nikkei at an 11 week low.

Consumer confidence fell two points to 79, a very weak showing.

Earthlink to cut 25% of its workers.

Apple cuts Power Mac prices.

White House Budget Director Mitchell Daniels said the deficits for 2003 and 2004 would excced $300 billion. In July a deficit of $109 billion and $48 billion in 2004 had been projected. Daniels said the White House will no longer provide 10 year budget projections. Why? Daniels said "these numbers are meaningless. There never was a $5.6 trillion surplus; not even close." In other words, what comes out of the White House budget office is a figment of their own imagination. Imagine this!!!!!!

Tuesday, January 28, 2003

1/28/03 "Trust Is A Crucial Commodity"

These words were spoken by Colin Powell on Sunday before an international gathering of leaders in Davos, Switzerland. He might have included sound judgment and street smarts. No one seriously doubts that the U.S will release intelligence data on Iraqi weapons concealment and will show the direct link of Iraq to al Qaeda. Whether it's revealed today or next week is irrelevant. What isn't irrelevant is tonight's State of the Union address. There will be soaring rhetoric reminiscent of Churchill, Lincoln, Truman, and the Scriptures. Memorable words don't deliver results. Departments like Homeland Security can be initiated but the lack of infrastructure undermines success. In other words, there might have been four dress rehearsals for this speech and great preparation but there is a big gap between the lip and the cup, as it were. What does axis of evil mean? Every time I hear it spoken I cringe. Why? Little progress has happened but lots of talk. Hopefully there will be tangible improvements coming our way.

Merrill Lynch's chief strategist said technology shares should remain "significantly underweighted" due to evidence that capital spending expectations may be too optimistic.

The Dow closed below 8000 for the first time since Oct. 14.

Freddie Mac earnings below expectations.

Surveys show 4 out of 5 Europeans think the quality of healthcare stagnated or declined over the past decade.

Cross border pharmacies are the rage. There are at least 80 Canadian companies in the business. Simply put, Canada regulates drug prices. What the market will bear dictates prices in the U.S.

Pfizer Chairman and CEO McKinnell: "with a differing set of incentives the system can produce better outcomes at significantly lower costs." I don't see anyone stopping the drug companies from doing that- with the possible exception of greed.

2002 home sales rose 5% to a record 5.56 million homes.

Fujitsu cuts forecast.

Monday, January 27, 2003

1/27/03 "There's A Sausage Machine On Capitol Hill"

Before I get into the meat of this morning's blog, I want to make a sincere apology. It appears that my daily musings are making many of my readers depressed. That certainly is not my intention. In fact, I have always believed knowing the facts is uplifting and a great way to start the day- a little like the breakfast of champions. Now I could change the recipe, and dilute the truth, but then you wouldn't respect my independent thinking. So let's start fresh today. I will not say one word about unemployment, consumer sentiment, or economic malaise.

White House chief of staff Andrew Card: "There's a sausage machine on Capitol Hill. We gave the sausage machine all the right ingredients, they have to churn, and I'm confident that when they turn that sausage out, it'll be the right kind of sausage for America." Will it be vegetarian sausage or organic? I, for one, am always interested in creative recipes. Maybe Andrew Card could be a guest on the Food Network.

Martha Stewart: "I'm real lucky, because I am able to sort of compartmentalize. I can be concerned on one hand, and be productive on the other hand...I can still sleep." Maybe her nickname should be multi-task.

The drought sweeping the West is the worst in more than a century. Some scientists say it rivals the meanest dry spells of the past 1400 years! In some places for the past year and a half there hasn't been enough rain even to measure.

70% of those polled believe a war with Iraq will hurt the U.S. economy. Maybe a creative stimulus plan is not to go to war.

It is estimated that each year states are losing at least $12 billion in taxes on e-commerce and catalog purchases on the internet.

European stocks are at their lowest level in about 6 years. The FTSE is below 3500.

Gold is at $372 and 30% higher than a year ago.

The Euro is at $1.09 vs the dollar.

Crude oil is trading at $33.50 per barrel.

Microsoft's Gates says he does not expect a big pick-up in tech spending over the next 2 or 3 years.

Blix to say Iraq failed to fully comply with the UN resolution. What a revelation!

The Packard Foundation provided $616 million in grants in 2000. This year the expectation is for $200 million.

Ellison says Oracle's stock is undervalued. If so, why isn't he out there buying the shares in the marketplace? Maybe he should talk less, and spend more time trying to build revenue.

Sunday, January 26, 2003

1/26/03 What The State Of The Union Speech Won't Say

I'm referring to what Americans have permitted or currently are permitting to go on in our lives. I suggest we assume the responsibility for wrongdoing and do something about creating change.

1983 was a very bad year. At that time Congress increased the employment tax and increased the retirement age in the future. We voted for these people, and we pay every day for it. Do you realize that the employment taxes we pay provide our eligibility for health, disability, retirement, and survivor benefits and that these benefits were tax-free until 1983? I strongly suggest we make enough noise to bring them into tax-free territory once again. Why should so many retirees who saved for retirement pay income taxes on the benefits that come from their employment taxes? This is real double taxation. This hits you where it hurts-below the belt. I bet this won't be in the state of the union speech.

Bush is proposing a 2% Federal pay raise. You are talking about millions of workers(I use that term gingerly) who, in all likelihood, couldn't compete in the private sector. We must never forget the government is the employer of last resort. I have a strong feeling that Bush will not be telling the millions of jobless Americans about his plan to raise Federal pay.

Medicare is actuarilly bankrupt. When discussing the potential overhaul for the healthcare system, I bet no mention will be made of Medicare's finances.

Rising malpractice insurance rates are causing physicians to leave clinical practice and/or to stop performing high-risk procedures. Meanwhile, payments to physicians from private insurers and federal programs are declining. Do you think these problems will be outlined Tuesday evening?

General Amir Al Saadi, a top Iraqi advisor, says he believes war is inevitable. Bush says he is running out of patience. The American public state that the fear of war is the main problem facing the U.S. today. Given all the rhetoric and listening to American's fears, what are the chances that a non-warlike discussion will take place Tuesday evening? It is up to our leaders to listen to the constituents, and bring whatever pressure is necessary to avoid Americans losing their lives in battle. We must ask ourselves. Is Saddam capable of being another Hittler? The latter had no peer in the evil department. He was the evil axis. With $6 billion in hidden assets, Saddam has the resources to retire. The world should show provide the one-way ticket to palookaville, but without the loss of life.

The current cold spell means that many Americans will see a doubling of their home heating bills. With the current state of the economy, few can afford the increases they face. What short-term program will be created to offset this problem? This won't be discussed on Tuesday.

The internet is global. For many, it is the most cost and time effective way to communicate. The companies providing the infrastructure for the internet have a responsibility to eliminate security flaws. They are receiving fees for their service, and consequently, users should get a reliable service. Once again, there was a security flaw in Microsoft's database management program, SQL Server. This flaw enabled a computer worm or virus to block traffic on the global internet this weekend, and even jammed ATMs. It's not a matter that Microsoft has $40 billion in the bank and has the resources to fix their repeated security flaws. The fact is the company responds to problems not before the problems exist. When will corporate managements learn to stand behind their products? This isn't about corporate governance? This is about doing what's right. Naturally, this won't be in the president's speech either.

Vendors have real trouble making ends meet. Large corporations often take advantage of the small guy. Take for example KMart. Their Project Slow It Down delayed payments to vendors in late 2001 in order to avoid a liquidity crisis. That's unethical, immoral, and pure bullshit. Kmart does not deserve to have the public shop in their stores. It's not just KMart. How long does it take for vendors to be paid by our government? What's being done about it? Do you think the president will discuss this Tuesday evening?

I have only mentioned a few omissions which will not be heard in the state of the union address. The problems run deep. I'm not a cheerleader. We can only solve problems if they are addressed.
1/26/03 What The State Of The Union Speech Won't Say

I'm referring to what Americans have permitted or currently are permitting to go on in our lives. I suggest we assume the responsibility for wrongdoing and do something about creating change.

1983 was a very bad year. At that time Congress increased the employment tax and increased the retirement age in the future. We voted for these people, and we pay every day for it. Do you realize that the employment taxes we pay provide our eligibility for health, disability, retirement, and survivor benefits and that these benefits were tax-free until 1983? I strongly suggest we make enough noise to bring them into tax-free territory once again. Why should so many retirees who saved for retirement pay income taxes on the benefits that come from their employment taxes? This is real double taxation. This hits you where it hurts-below the belt. I bet this won't be in the state of the union speech.

Bush is proposing a 2% Federal pay raise. You are talking about millions of workers(I use that term gingerly) who, in all likelihood, couldn't compete in the private sector. We must never forget the government is the employer of last resort. I have a strong feeling that Bush will not be telling the millions of jobless Americans about his plan to raise Federal pay.

Medicare is actuarilly bankrupt. When discussing the potential overhaul for the healthcare system, I bet no mention will be made of Medicare's finances.

Rising malpractice insurance rates are causing physicians to leave clinical practice and/or to stop performing high-risk procedures. Meanwhile, payments to physicians from private insurers and federal programs are declining. Do you think these problems will be outlined Tuesday evening?

General Amir Al Saadi, a top Iraqi advisor, says he believes war is inevitable. Bush says he is running out of patience. The American public state that the fear of war is the main problem facing the U.S. today. Given all the rhetoric and listening to American's fears, what are the chances that a non-warlike discussion will take place Tuesday evening? It is up to our leaders to listen to the constituents, and bring whatever pressure is necessary to avoid Americans losing their lives in battle. We must ask ourselves. Is Saddam capable of being another Hittler? The latter had no peer in the evil department. He was the evil axis. With $6 billion in hidden assets, Saddam has the resources to retire. The world should show provide the one-way ticket to palookaville, but without the loss of life.

The current cold spell means that many Americans will see a doubling of their home heating bills. With the current state of the economy, few can afford the increases they face. What short-term program will be created to offset this problem? This won't be discussed on Tuesday.

The internet is global. For many, it is the most cost and time effective way to communicate. The companies providing the infrastructure for the internet have a responsibility to eliminate security flaws. They are receiving fees for their service, and consequently, users should get a reliable service. Once again, there was a security flaw in Microsoft's database management program, SQL Server. This flaw enabled a computer worm or virus to block traffic on the global internet this weekend, and even jammed ATMs. It's not a matter that Microsoft has $40 billion in the bank and has the resources to fix their repeated security flaws. The fact is the company responds to problems not before the problems exist. When will corporate managements learn to stand behind their products? This isn't about corporate governance? This is about doing what's right. Naturally, this won't be in the president's speech either.

Vendors have real trouble making ends meet. Large corporations often take advantage of the small guy. Take for example KMart. Their Project Slow It Down delayed payments to vendors in late 2001 in order to avoid a liquidity crisis. That's unethical, immoral, and pure bullshit. Kmart does not deserve to have the public shop in their stores. It's not just KMart. How long does it take for vendors to be paid by our government? What's being done about it? Do you think the president will discuss this Tuesday evening?

I have only mentioned a few omissions which will not be heard in the state of the union address. The problems run deep. I'm not a cheerleader. We can only solve problems if they are addressed.