Saturday, February 22, 2003

2/22/03 MJ

I would never minimize Kobe scoring 40 once again; however, Michael Jordan is 40 years of age and poured in 43 points last night. No one 40 ever has scored close to his age. Not only is it one for the record books, but it reminds one and all once again of why MJ is considered the greatest of all time. You are watching a master at work and still honing his skills.

Target's management said its 2002 sales were hurt by $1 billion in price reductions in its efforts to compete with WalMart and to a lesser extent Kohl's. Target's credit card business contributed 15% to its pre-tax operating profit, and explains why Target's numbers were not that bad.

Starbucks to launch its own credit card.

Agilent to cut 4000 more jobs. They have been such an unsuccessful HP spin-off.

National Semiconductor to lay off 500 workers.

Do you ever get tired of all these politicians and weapons inspectors issuing ultimatums? Since they are all drawing salaries, isn't it time the talking stopped and something got accomplished? Something tells me little awaits these folks in the private sector.

Friday, February 21, 2003

2/21/03 Quotations For A Friday

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's manufacturing index for the region fell to 2.3% in February from 11.2% in January.

The index of leading economic indicators fell 0.1% in January.

Eric Hoffer: "You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you."

Dorothy Bernard: "Courage is fear that has said its prayers."

Eric Hoffer: "It is when power is wedded to chronic fear that it becomes formidable."

Frederic Bastiat: "Everyone wants to live at the expense of the state. They forget that the state lives at the expense of everyone."

Charles A. Beard: "One of the best ways to get yourself a reputation as a dangerous citizen these days is to go about repeating the very phrases which our founding fathers used in the great struggle for independence."

Chester Bowles: "Government is too big and too important to be left to the politicians."

Buddha: "Work out your own salvation. Do not depend on others.

Sir Winston Churchill: "When you have to kill a man, it costs nothing to be polite."

Claudius: "No one is free who is not master of himself."

W. Edwards Deming: "It is not enough to do your best: you must know what to do, and THEN do your best."

Ronald Reagan: "Government is like a baby. An alimentary canal with a big appetite at one end and no sense of responsibility at the other."

George Washington: "If we are wise, let us prepare for the worst."

Thursday, February 20, 2003

2/20/03 Our Government Is A Debt Junkie

Hi everyone! Welcome to the government being busted. They don't have a pot to pee in- pardon my being crude. Of course, our esteemed Snow, the new guy on the block, urges the debt limit be raised. I urge him to go back to CSX. There should be a debt cap, a spending cap, and a program to reduce the deficit. We're in big TROUBLE. The December trade deficit rose 16% to a record $44.2 billion; weekly jobless claims rose 21,000 to 402,000; and producer prices rose at their fastest rate in a decade thanks to higher energy and auto costs. This all means less jobs, less ability to save and less likelihood to spend, and more daily reliance on foreign capital to fund our growing account and budget deficit. We want to go to war with all this hanging over the heads of Main Street?

The Adinistration is really good at dictating to Americans and to the rest of the world. Now let'sl look at Turkey. During the last Gulf war their economy got creamed to the tune of $30 billion. So they are asking for a similar amount from the U.S in case war breaks out again in this region. Is that too much to ask? Obviously the Administration wants to give this country $6 billion less in a take it or leave it attitude. Strategically, the U.S. needs Turkey as a base of operations. Someone needs to re-think this untenable position.

I felt badly for the angst created by the orange alert. Then I thought again. Look at the children in Israel. They go to school with their gas masks, and practice wearing them should a terror alert take place. So duct tape and plastic sheeting doesn't sound so bad after all. We must remember flashlights, batteries, water, food supplies, and sleeping bags.

With the backdrop of all the above, do you really believe the market could possibly have a sustained rally? Do you really believe business will improve? The real question is how bad are things going to get? I have been asking that question for three years. Very few individuals ever provide a response. The few who do are the ones who haven't lost money in this bear market.

Wednesday, February 19, 2003

2/19/03 Thirteen Million Americans

Roughly 13 million Americans want to work and haven't a job. Factory use approximates 75%. With oil at $37 per barrel, and many consumers paying at least $2 per gallon for gas, we are reminded that each $1 a barrel increase in the price of oil equates to a $3 billion tax on the U.S. economy. The latter topped out long before war worries and 9/11.

Unemployment insurance tax filings indicate California has lost well over 200,000 jobs(outside the farm sector) in the past year.

Micron Technology is cutting 10% of its workforce. Waste Management announced job cuts. It appears garbage collection is not a safe work haven. Even the Detroit Institute of Arts will be announcing layoffs. That museum is the state's cultural gem.

On Tuesday, because of the snowstorm, all on-essential government employees were told to stay home. The rumor had it that only about a dozen people went to work and felt essential.

Chicago's Mayor Daley: "people who lose love ones want answers and deserve answers." I wonder if Saddam Hussein shares those sentiments.

About 50% of N. Korea's foreign aid comes from China.

Germany's second biggest bank, HVB group, omits the 2002 dividend after a fourth quarter loss. It is the first time the bank has not paid a dividend in over 50 years. These are not ordinary times.

The U.S. current trade deficit is about 50% larger than its defense budget.

Serious flooding could threaten the DC area in a day or so. Man the life boats.

Maybe Joe Millionnaire could do a guest spot on Al Jazeera. That would be a repayment for the bin Laden tapes.

Another 20,000 troops were ordered to the Persian Gulf region. If this keeps up, the birth rate will go down in the U.S.

Chicago's schools will be teaching war and peace.

The Texas ports of Beaumont, Freeport, Galveston, and Houston have all been beneficiaries from trade with Cuba, and those benefits will continue to increase.

After yesterday's stock split, Microsoft became the first public company with 10 billion shares outstanding, and is tops in market cap with $267 bilion, which is down from its peak of over $600 billion.

Kobie nets 52 in double OT win over the Rockets. His play may get the Lakers into the playoffs.

Yesterday I mentioned about KGB, the great Tervuren. I heard from his owner. Anne is getting a 2 year old female from England. KGB comes from Ireland. She will be breeding her to KGB, and the first litter should be available in a little over a year. I was promised the largest male puppy. It's been too many years since our Duke passed away, and our family has been without a special dog ever since then. Patience can have its virtues. You must never give up on your hopes and dreams.

Tuesday, February 18, 2003

2/18/03 John Ruskin: "There Is No Wealth But Life"

Vaira Vike-Freibarga, Latvian President, "it is much easier to tolerate a dictator when he is dictating over somebody else's life and not your own."

UBS AG, the biggest Swiss bank, reported the first quarterly loss in four years, and sees no recovery in the months ahead.

Reuters to cut 3000 jobs and reports its first ever loss. They will acquire Multex via a tender offer.

Israel's economy contracted in 2002.

The blizzard of 2003 shut DC down. Next it will be the debt ceiling on Feb. 20. The latter will have more staying power. It won't melt away. Rather it's a cancerous growth.

The Central Bank of Venezuela's current lending rate is 37%. President Hugo Chavez wants the interest rate cap to be 30%, and he recently instituted price controls on 220 different types of goods. Shortages will result. Producers threaten to close plants, and Chavez threatens in return as he is "drawing up plans to seize the plants." Chavez is a former paratrooper. He would do well to return to that occupation.

The Sosan, a North Korean ship, arrived from Germany at the seaport of Nampo. It carried several tons of sodium cyanide. That's not table salt.

Since the beginning of August, the Baghdad Stock Index has risen 47%. That sure beats the Dow.

It's a sad day. McDonald's will drop Big N' Tasty from the $1 menu. It was too good to be true!

Lionel Trains were introduced in 1900, and were just named by the Toy Industry Association as one of the most memorable and creative toys of the past century. I second that.

It is estimated that Cuba will purchase $3 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products by 2005. The U.S. allows Americans to sell their goods to Cuba on a cash-only basis. Payments must be made to a foreign bank and then the cash is forwarded to a U.S. institution.

Intel is Arizona's fifth largest private employer with 9500 employees at its two Chandler locations. Today Intel will announce making a major investment in its Chandler semiconductor operations with the latest chipmaking technology.

Germany's Merck KGaA forecast a flat 2003.

The ZEW Institute warned that the German economy would remain weak.

Arson is suspected on the S. Korean subway that killed 134.

N. Korea threatens to withdraw from the 1953 Armistice Agreement that ended the Korean war. This country is a sorry excuse even for communism.

Feeling safe is one of the primal necessities for all human beings.

The other day I shared an afternoon with KGB, the most wonderful Tervuren I have ever seen. What a treat. Had he been an entrant in the latest Westminister Kennel Club contest at Madison Square Garden, he would have trounced Mick, the winner.

Monday, February 17, 2003

2/17/03 As The Threat Of War Recedes

Gold dropped to $346 per ounce after trading earlier this month at $388. The lessons to be learned are to sell into strength whenever possible, and to remember what Bernard Baruch said- you can't get hurt taking a profit.

The dollar rallied to a month high vs the Swiss franc and rebounded against the Euro.

The Bank of Japan maintained a dim view of the Japanese economy.

The Bundesbank said the German economy probably contracted in the fourth quarter.

The Administration is between a rock and a hard place on going to war with Iraq. That's what happens when you back yourself into a corner due to poor decision making. As we have learned in investing, it's important to have a sound exit strategy.

You can't lose face by saving lives.

As his motorcade drove 2 1/2 hours from Camp David thru yesterday's blizzard to the White House, maybe the President reflected on the tomb of the unknown soldier.

We are in the midst of the longest bear market since the second world war.

If Saddam is truly a villain, and he has shown himself to be just that, then some mercenary will kill him- sooner rather than later.

Allan Houston hit nothing but net for 53 big ones.

Tiger Woods is in a class by himself.

Orange will recede to yellow and finally to the color of clear plastic sheeting.

In three days the government is out of spending room. Yeah baby!!!!

30 year mortgages have dropped to 5.86%. Today does anyone stay in a home for 30 days?

Unfortunately, Google purchased Pyra, the young company that created blogger.com which is the service that does publish my daily blog. I hope Google doesn't screw it up.

Let's party! The party plan business generates sales of $7.5 billion per year. There are 12.2 million people involved in the selling side of party plans. So host a party, become a sales consultant, have some fun, be your own boss, and maybe you'll be another Mary Kay.

China's state banks have bad debts of $600 billion while deposits in the banking system total only $800 billion. This serves as a good reason to put cash under the mattress in China.

Sonny Strickland is a Henry County developer in the state of Georgia: "I once had people who sought out land next to a cemetary and asked me to build them a house. They told me they wanted quiet neighbors and figured this would be a way to get that."

George and Abe wish you a great President's Day.

Sunday, February 16, 2003

2/16/03 Personal Preparedness For Orange Alert

1. Only listen to alerts after the person warning about terrorism passes a lie detector test.

2. When participating in an anti-war march, wear neutral colors. Blend into the crowd and leave the purple hair to others.

3. Stock up on anti-virus software and do not participate in illegal downloading.

4. Do not buy duct tape. Buy candles.

5. Do not buy a gas mask. Buy an air freshener.

6. Get rid of all lead paint in the bedroom.

7. Stock up on Astroglide and Trojans.

8. Just in case the terror exceeds 30 days, stock up on personal hygiene items.

9. Stock up on protein and limit carb intake.

10.Do not eat untested genetically modified foods.

11.While under stress, do not day trade.

12.While battling your fears, do not refinance your mortgage.

13.Do not exercise your stock options.

14.Do not participate in any polls on whether to attack Iraq.

15. While under stress, do not speed date.

16.Do not offer asylum to Saddam.

17.Do not abduct a survivor.

18.Stock up on red, white, and blue band-aids.

19.Do not panic. Keep your head about you.

20.Please forgive the Administration. They did not mean to scare you.