Saturday, June 05, 2004

6/5/06 Do You Feel Lucky Today?

You are in the chips. Congratulations. If you are a production or non-supervisory worker, your average hourly wages rose by 5 cents in May, and that’s after the 4 cent increase in April. That’s the good news. Unfortunately, your hours worked per week remained unchanged at 33.8 hours per week. That leaves plenty of time to place a bet on Smarty Jones. It could be worse. The number of unemployed persons remained unchanged in May at 8.2 million. That does not include the 80,000 dropped from the unemployment tally each week due to the loss of benefits. The unemployment rate has essentially remained the same since December 2003. The proportion of the population age 16 and over with jobs—remained at 62.2%. The civilian labor force participation rate was 65.9% for the fourth consecutive month. Also not counted as unemployed were another 1.5 million marginally attached to the labor force, about the same number as one year ago. There were 476,000 discouraged workers in May, also about the same number as a year earlier. The number of persons who had been jobless for 27 weeks or longer held at 1.8 million.

There are always bright spots. In May, construction employment grew by 37,000 and over the past 14 months the construction industry has added about 250,000 jobs. Essentially in the durable goods sector, 32,000 jobs were added in May, and most were in construction-related manufacturing industries, such as, fabricated metal products and wood products. Employment in temporary help was once again the real star in May, and in the last 13 months about 299,000 temp jobs have been added. Health care and social assistance added 36,000 jobs in May, and over the past year a total of 274,000 jobs. We can’t forget that old standby food services. That sector added 33,000 jobs in May, roughly the monthly increase for 2004. Lastly, the retail industry, and that includes building material and garden supply, food and beverage, and clothing stores, has added 142,000 jobs over the past year. These are the same sectors I have highlighted for the past year. Nothing has changed. I do want to include one thought. The unemployment rate for adult women is only 4.8%. It is more cost effective for businesses to hire women rather than men. For the same job, women, on average, only earn 75% or less than do the men. It is one more reason why the average hourly earnings per week has hardly increased over the past year, and when viewed in the light of rising inflation, the salaries and wages have declined.

Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at the Northern Trust Co. in Chicago: “I don’t see anything not to like in this report.” He is talking about the employment report I just discussed. It’s not enough to state that 248,000 non-farm payroll jobs were added in May. One must also focus on the quality of those jobs. They continue to be lower paying and, for the most part, without benefits or with minor benefits. Do you know a great many people who can make ends meet on $528.63 per week before taxes? That’s what’s wrong with the employment picture. Too many Americans cannot earn a living leading to some quality of life. How much income can one expect from employment in service industries? This sector added 176,000 jobs in May and 294,000 in April. The leading area within the entire sector was temporary employment. That’s truly why the weekly hours worked remain at such a low level. I am certain of one thing. The weekly wages of $528.63 will not lead to a sustained recovery. It will not lead to the re-election of Bush. It will not lead to higher interest rates. Consumer spending will no longer carry the day.

I was happy to see that, in May, there was a net decrease of 27,000 government jobs. I also noticed that on Friday it was announced that more than 400 government jobs will be eliminated by Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack in an effort to reduce the state’s budget gap.

Boeing continues to eliminate workers. In the state of Washington they shed 250 workers in April. IBM will cut 63 jobs at their Rational Software subsidiary in Redmond, Washington. Maytag will cut 20% of its salaried workforce or about 1,100 jobs.

The rate of growth in China’s car sales in the month of May dropped by more than 50% from the prior month. It is still a healthy 15% or so, but it won’t help carry the day for GM. With incentives rising to $5,000, GM needs a blowout performance from its China operations. They delivered in the first four months of 2004; however, with the curbing of car loans by the Chinese government, it would appear that results for the remainder of 2005 will reflect a significant slowdown.

The price for Brent crude fell 1.9% this week. U.S. crude futures closed below $39 per barrel, and 8% below the record intraday high set on Tuesday.

The race is 1 ½ miles. There are only nine horses entered in the Belmont Stakes. Based on past results, maybe four horses should be racing. When you have Secretariat and Mr. Prospector running through your veins, it might be realistic to see only one horse running. Bring two pairs of binoculars. You’ll see Smarty Jones in one and the other eight horses in the other binoculars. It will be a split screen race. The question is how lucky do you feel today? Can you pick the number of lengths Smarty will win by today? Will it be 13?
That’s my guess. Smarty can retire undefeated --- like Seattle Slew and Rocky Marciano.

Karen Taylor, co-owner with her husband of Seattle Slew: “When you looked him in the eye he would look into your soul.”

Friday, June 04, 2004

6/4/03 Wholesale Gasoline Prices Plummet

Over the last two days wholesale gasoline prices fell by nearly 12 cents a gallon. It’s a start. OPEC boosted output quotas by 2 million barrels, and Mark Baxter, director of the Maguire Energy Institute at the SMU Cox School of Business, stated this increase in output could take 35 cents a gallon off the price of gasoline. Also contributing to the price decline was the 1.3 million barrels rise in U.S. gasoline reserves. U.S. oil stockpiles rose by 2.8 million barrels in the week ended May 28. Crude is trading under $39 a barrel. The price will decline further the old-fashioned way—supply will outstrip demand.

Rather noteworthy is the Rocket at 8-0 and now with 318 career wins.

U.S. employers announced plans in May to cut 73,368 jobs, a 6.9% increase over the same month a year earlier, according to Challenger, Gray, & Christmas. All the buzz is about new job creation. Low-paying, non-benefit, non-permanent jobs are hardly the American dream. Then again, it beats food stamps and the unemployment lines. The insured unemployment rate rose to 2.4% in the week ended May 22 from 2.3%. Thirty states and territories during that week reported an increase in new claims, while 23 had a decrease. This is hardly the stuff that signals strong job creation. It signals the jobless rate moving higher.

Seagate is cutting 7% of its workforce or 2,900 workers.

The story at Intel is the turnaround of flash memory for cell phones. After a big loss in 2003, it is nearing profitability and will turn into the green in 2005.

The ISM’s non-manufacturing index for new orders fell to 61.3 from 65.6 in April. It suggests a slowing services sector in the months to come.

Continental Air’s CEO Bethune: “As to the financial condition of the industry—it is perilous, and the skies are only growing darker.” That is not true for Southwest Air or a few others.

There is a rumor that George Tenet will star in a new reality TV show called “The Fall Guy.”

Thursday, June 03, 2004

6/3/04 National Hunger Awareness Day

Bill Shore, executive director of Share Our Strength: “There are two kinds of poverty in America: There are those who don’t have and those who don’t know. The majority of Americans are fortunate not to be in the category of those who don’t have. Too many have been willing to remain in the category of those who don’t know.”

Food stamps are used by more than 10 million households. There are more than 65,000 soup kitchens that feed almost 20 million Americans.

MIT’s Leonard Guarante: “ When there’s plenty of food, we reproduce and die. When there’s famine, we don’t reproduce, but we age more slowly to ensure survival.”

For the first time in 122 years, on June 8, Venus will cross the path of the Sun. By calculating how long it takes Venus to cross the Sun, one can figure the distance from the Earth to the Sun. The transit begins on June 6.

Yemen is known for khat, coffee, and Mohammed bin Laden. Osama is the 17th son of Mohammed. Maybe, with over 50 children in the family, Osama was lacking in quality time with his father.

King Fahd of Saudi Arabia after 9/11: “bin Laden children are all over America. Take measures to protect the innocents.” Three days after 9/11 a private charter plane flew these children out of the United States. The FBI supervised this effort. It’s pay back time. The Saudi oil will flow to the max.

Qantas will re-launch direct flights from Sydney to Shanghai and Bombay. Quantas executive general manager John Borghetti stated “we believe it is the future for us—India and China. Official figures show 176,000 visitors from China arrived in Australia in 2003, and the number is expected to grow to 960,000 by 2013. The number of Indians traveling overseas is expected to rise from 4.7 million last year to 50 million in 2020.

General Motors is raising the cash rebates on most of its 2003 and 2004 model year vehicles to $5,000 from the present $4,500. I’m so happy that GM is telling the world how great demand is for their vehicles.

According to AutoVIBES, nearly 50% of car buyers state gas prices are affecting their purchase decisions. The survey indicated that, after the recent gasoline price increases, a good number of shoppers “are now taking a second look at vehicles they wouldn’t normally consider.”

The Western Washington (that includes Seattle and its environs) chapter of the National Association of Purchasing Managers stated its index fell in May for the second monthly decline in a row. The index fell to 58 from April’s 60.5. March’s level was 68.3. Current production and new orders are down significantly over the past two months, and inventories are forecast to drop over the next 90 days.

The Boeing Employees’ Credit Union is laying off 70 workers in the Puget Sound region. The credit union has 360,000 members and there will be 800 staff members after the job cuts.


Wednesday, June 02, 2004

6/2/04 The Spigot Will Drown The Speculators

Make no mistake. The thugs will not win this battle. The specs will get hosed. The spigot will open wide. The Qatari minister, Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah,stated it best when he remarked "everybody should produce what they want over the next few months." For the near future, at least, OPEC holds the key to the spigot. To fight their will is stupid. They have a need to bring down oil prices. These guys want the world's economic engine to keep churning away. Sky high oil prices are bad for business and bad for the buyers of their oil. Whether they produce 26 million barrels of oil a day or a slightly different number, the daily spigot will lean on the price of oil. Security will increase around the key areas of the spigot. That has begun. Forget the headlines. Pay attention to the decisions out of OPEC on Thursday. Yesterday's spike in oil will prove, in my view, the high point for a considerable period of time. If the consumers of oil and gas do their part and cutback on usage, then the price has an opportunity to truly decline by $10 per barrel.

Will Mel Karmazin go to Disney? If I were a Disney board member, I'd want to talk to him about the top job.

Tuesday, June 01, 2004

6/1/04 The Bench

Ketan Sampeth, President, Intel India: "India's emerging consumer market is a key to Intel's high growth plans. India holds the third place in Intel's revenue chart for fastest growing consumer market in the world."

Karl Malone: "You've got to have a struggle to get to where you want to go."

There comes a time when it is necessary to turn to your bench to win the game. Last night the Lakers could not rely on Shaq and Kobe to pull out a win. They turned to Kareem Rush, a second year player who has received few playing minutes. By hitting six threes from downtown, he produced the win and carried his team into the finals. The world economy has been depending on the American consumer to create winning economic results for many years. Age is beginning to have an impact on spending habits, and record gas prices and muted wage and salary gains for the past three years have contributed to the consumer approaching the spending limit wall. The bench will need to come to the rescue. U.S. business spending will not make up the slack. The most likely contributors are those in the Asean economy. However, until they get more playing time, countries like China and India cannot be expected to win the games night after night. Their economies need seasoning.

Mitsubishi Motors posted a 56% decline in new veh
OK, well, i have stuff to do before i leave at 9:30 to go pick up the snack.
BYEBYE
6/1/04 The Bench

Ketan Sampeth, President, Intel India: "India's emerging consumer market is a key to Intel's high growth plans. India holds the third place in Intel's revenue chart for fastest growing consumer market in the world."

Karl Malone: "You've got to have a struggle to get to where you want to go."

There comes a time when it is necessary to turn to your bench to win the game. Last night the Lakers could not rely on Shaq and Kobe to pull out a win. They turned to Kareem Rush, a second year player who has received few playing minutes. By hitting six threes from downtown, he produced the win and carried his team into the finals. The world economy has been depending on the American consumer to create winning economic results for many years. Age is beginning to have an impact on spending habits, and record gas prices and muted wage and salary gains for the past three years have contributed to the consumer approaching the spending limit wall. The bench will need to come to the rescue. U.S. business spending will not make up the slack. The most likely contributors are those in the Asean economy. However, until they get more playing time, countries like China and India cannot be expected to win the games night after night. Their economies need seasoning.

Mitsubishi Motors posted a 56% decline in new vehicle sales last month.

If Mel Karmazin does leave Viacom, it would be a blow to the leadership of the company.

Monday, May 31, 2004

5/31/04 The Day After

Yesterday, over 800 pairs of combat boots, each symbolizing a U.S. soldier killed in Iraq, lined Upper Senate Park in front of the Capitol Building in Washington, DC.

Prior to yesterday, there had been attacks in Yanbu and Basra. On Sunday, al-Qaeda attacked Khobar in Saudi Arabia and killed 22 civilians. Khobar hasn't any production, export, or oil refining facilities, and yet, crude oil futures jumped sharply in Asian trading. Al-Qaeda is trying to send a message to the Saudis prior to Thursday's OPEC meeting. These attacks can only prove detrimental to al-Qaeda.

Tornadoes and storms once again hit many parts of the U.S. Nebraska, Oklahoma, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Illinois, Missouri, and Kansas were all impacted yesterday. The weather is beginning to play a more hazardous role in the lives of many Americans.

McDonald's has 56 outlets in India and "will add at least 15 new restaurants in the current year." It's first store opened in New Delhi in 1996. The menu is quite different with McCurry Pan and McAloo Tikki potato patties in strong demand.

Sunday, May 30, 2004

5/30/04 An Arm, A Leg, And Your First Born

There was a TV ad showing a gas station with three gas tanks. The unleaded tank with gas at $2.40 per gallon had a picture of an arm on it. The mid-fuel tank at $2.50 per gallon had a picture of a leg. Finally, the super unleaded tank at $2.60 per gallon had a picture of one's first born.

At the moment, hybrid cars are but a tiny dot on the auto scene. Toyota originally planned to make 36,000 Prius vehicles for the 2004 year. However, demand has been so strong that last month it started manufacturing an additional 11,000 cars at its Motomachi plant in Toyota City in Japan, which makes all Prius vehicles. Forty percent of the production goes to the U.S. where there is a four to six month waiting list to buy the car. The hybrid Civic is also in strong demand. There are new hybrids on the way: the Ford Escape, the Lexus RX 400 H, the Honda Accord, and the Toyota Highlander. One can see that American car manufacturers are almost absent from the list of fall arrivals. Their non-hybrid vehicles continue to mount in inventory. The declining profitability of their SUVs will hurt their bottom line performance. In time, the growing demand for hybrids will lessen gasoline usage. It may not happen today, but it will happen. Eventually, OPEC will feel it just as Kodak has felt the impact of digital photography. OPEC's greatest enemy is Toyota, and when it comes to brains, OPEC is no match.

According to the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, more than 25 million veterans are alive today. Of the 16 million service members during WWII, only about 4.4 million are living. These brave Americans understood the call of duty, and protected our freedoms with the strongest of wills accompanied by dignified honor.