Saturday, June 12, 2004

6/12/04 Being Inefficient

Ronald Reagan on how cumbersome the bureaucracy can be with its many rules: "Don't mind them being inefficent. If they were efficient, we wouldn't have any liberty."

Jack Guynn, President of the Atlanta Fed, stated that long-term inflation expectations remain well contained; however, " a great deal depends upon how much of the recent spate of price increases turns out to be transitory. Recent developments on the price front warrant significant attention."

Over the past six years, Chevron Texaco's proven oil and gas reserves have risen more than 15% or more than 1 billion barrels while its annual output during this same period has falllen by about 14%. The company expects production to begin rising in 2006.

For the first time since 1974, talks have broken down between Maytag and its 2,225 union workers. The sticking points revolve around the company's desire to have workers pick up more health care costs and the proposal to freeze retirement benefits and not credit union members with future years of service to Maytag. There is an expectation for a long strike.

6/12/04 Being Inefficient

Ronald Reagan on how cumbersome the bureaucracy can be with its many rules: "Don't mind them being inefficent. If they were efficient, we wouldn't have any liberty."

Jack Guynn, President of the Atlanta Fed, stated that long-term inflation expectations remain well contained; however, " a great deal depends upon how much of the recent spate of price increases turns out to be transitory. Recent developments on the price front warrant significant attention."

Over the past six years, Chevron Texaco's proven oil and gas reserves have risen more than 15% or more than 1 billion barrels while its annual output during this same period has falllen by about 14%. The company expects production to begin rising in 2006.

For the first time since 1974, talks have broken down between Maytag and its 2,225 union workers. The sticking points revolve around the company's desire to have workers pick up more health care costs and the proposal to freeze retirement benefits and not credit union members with future years of service to Maytag. There is an expectation for a long strike.

6/12/04 Being Inefficient

Ronald Reagan on how cumbersome the bureaucracy can be with its many rules: "Don't mind them being inefficent. If they were efficient, we wouldn't have any liberty."

Jack Guynn, President of the Atlanta Fed, stated that long-term inflation expectations remain well contained; however, " a great deal depends upon how much of the recent spate of price increases turns out to be transitory. Recent developments on the price front warrant significant attention."

Over the past six years, Chevron Texaco's proven oil and gas reserves have risen more than 15% or more than 1 billion barrels while its annual output during this same period has falllen by about 14%. The company expects production to begin rising in 2006.

For the first time since 1974, talks have broken down between Maytag and its 2,225 union workers. The sticking points revolve around the company's desire to have workers pick up more health care costs and the proposal to freeze retirement benefits and not credit union members with future years of service to Maytag. There is an expectation for a long strike.

Friday, June 11, 2004

6/11/04 For All Seasons

Ronald Wilson Reagan may not have been all things to all people; however, he was a man for all seasons.

In this year's first quarter, our federal debt grew by 11.6%, household debt by 10.9%, and the debt of state and local governments by 9.6%. Hopefully, these growth rates are not sustainable.

The nation's debt accumulation has outpaced nominal GDP for the 14th time in the past 15 quarters.

This nation's mortgage debt has grown to almost $7 trillion and the household consumer debt has risen to just over $2 trillion. I guess debt can grow to the sky. It's a little like being short a stock. There is no limit on how high a stock can rise. Too bad our indebtedness is not replaced by equity ownership.

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Jack Guynn: Rising interest rates at a "measured" pace is "more of a plan than a pledge." Plans are certainly subject to change.
6/11/04 For All Seasons

Ronald Wilson Reagan was not all things to all people; however, he was a man for all seasons.

In this year's first quarter, federal debt grew by 11.6%, household debt by 10.9%, and the debt of state and local governments by 9.6%. Hopefully, these rates of growth are not sustainable.

In this year's first quarter, the nation's debt accumulation outpaced nominal GDP for the 14th time in the past 15 months. I hope our citizens do not believe this is an achievement.

Mortgage debt has risen to almost $7 trillion. Household consumer debt increased to just over $2 trillion. Greenspan says we have nothing to worry about when it comes to these debt levels. I am worried about his judgment.

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Jack Guynn: Raising interest rates at a "measured" pace is "more of a plan than a pledge." Plans are made to change with the wind.

Thursday, June 10, 2004

6/10/04 Behind The 8 Ball

Prices of goods imported into the U.S. rose by 1.6% in May. Export prices, on the other hand, rose o.3% in May. One doesn't need to be a genius to realize our currency won't be worth diddly should this relationship continue.

Initial unemployment claims in the most recent week rose 12,000 to 352,000, a 7 week high. Some temps must have lost their low-paying contracts.

Morgan Stanley and ABN Amro Holding predict that the Fed will lift interest rates 4 times this year to 2%. Several others share this view. In the meantime, the Bank of England lifted its benchmark lending rate by a quarter point to 4.5% citing rising house prices and other inflation concerns. It sounds like they could be describing the U.S.

Robert Arnott, manager of the $2.3 billion Pimco All Asset Fund: "18 months ago there was a lot of low-hanging fruit. Today there isn't. Almost everything is moderately to significantly expensive." Be patient, Robert. Value is waiting around the corner.

The International Energy Agency revised its oil demand forcast for 2004 by 360,000 barrels per day to the highest rate since 1980.

According to a new LA Times poll, with Nader in the race, Kerry leads Bush by 48% to 42%.

Wednesday, June 09, 2004

6/9/04 Home Equity Loans

According to Lending Tree, Inc., by the end of 2004, a projected 23.5% of homeowners will have secured a home equity loan, double the number who did so in 2003. Only 6.7% had home equity loans in 2002. With wages and salaries running behind the rate of inflation for the past three years, the home equity loans have kept the consumer in the spending game. As interest rates have risen about 100 basis points, the refinancing of homes has declined to about one-third of all mortgages. The engine fueling consumers is about to run out of gas. When it does, the fallout will not present a pretty picture.

GM expects to start its car financing business in China by September or October. Car financing is another description for sales incentives. It reminds me of the barker at the circus shouting "come right this way to the greatest show on earth."

July crude fell to the contract's lowest level since May 3, and settled at $37.15 per barrel. Soon the goniffs at the gas stations will lower their prices.

John Carlson, columnist for the Des Moines Register on Ronald Reagan: "He was like a confused poker player who kept asking if a flush beat two pair and left the table with all the cash. The other players never figured out he invented the game."

Patti Davis: "There is nothing stronger than love between two people, two souls."

Tata Consultancy Services has a new clinical drug management system that could reduce a drug's time to market and lower the trial's costs.

Sen. Diane Feinstein: "There appears to be an effort to redefine torture and narrow the prohibition against it."

Tuesday, June 08, 2004

6/8/04 Whatever It Takes

Greenspan: The FOMC "is prepared to do what is required" to fight inflation. If necessary, interest rate hikes will not be measured.

Shell Oil is cutting 600 to 800 IT jobs in the U.S. in a cost cutting move. Currently, Shell has 9,000 software developers. The company plans to send more of its work to India and Malaysia.

India is seeking to develop "value partnerships" in discovery drug research with U.S. firms. The new Indian government is committed to protect intellectual property rights.

India's forex reserves have climbed to $120 billion. Gold assets remain at $4.19 billion.

Home Depot plansd to create a business development operation in China. They will find little competition in that country.

Is Bush being to crack under the many pressures he is feeling and confronting?

Monday, June 07, 2004

6/7/04 Inflation

It is hard to measure inflation. In the end, it is a personal matter. It depends on each individual's spending habits. Some drive more miles. Some do a good deal of home improvement projects and can get impacted by rising lumber and possibly even metal prices. Shipping costs can cause some hurt to the bottom line. You may be effected by rising airline prices due to fuel adjustments. For some inflation is alive and well. The CRB Index recently hit a 23 year high. For others, it may come down to the cost of eggs and milk. The fact is though that no one escapes the hand of inflation when it is rising. You don't need the Fed to remind you. Your bank balance feels it. If inflation should gain traction, you had better hunker down. The results will not be pleasant. Fighting inflation and high interst rates took its toll some two decades ago. They were trying times for all Americans, and that included Ronadl Reagan. Let's hope those times are not revisited.

The Congress is working on a $447 billion defense budget. You can do the math. We have 285 million Americans. That size budget, is, in my view, indefensible. It is irrational and irresponsible. I guarantee they cannot reconcile the accounting for all those expenditures. Hopefully, all Amnericans will not swallow and accept this budget in the name of the war on terror. Our greatest enemy is the great divide in our country. It costs nothing to fix it but the will to do so.

Sunday, June 06, 2004

6/6/04 Thanks For The Memories

Only three times have I felt good about voting for a presidential candidate, and of those, twice were for Ronald Reagan. He was a great leader, a fantastic communicator to nations around the globe, and provided optimism and a feel good red, white, and blue spirit to Americans. Our country has not come close to electing an individual who could carry his genuine smile.

It is the 60th anniversary of D- Day. Our veterans did make the world a safer place. They made a difference that is still felt today.

Smarty Jones has great courage and grit. His owners, handlers, and jockey have displayed great class throughout the running of the triple crown events. I thought this 15.3 hands thoroughbred was a lock on the Belmont Stakes. He just came up a bit short in the end. The loss was disappointing but not Smarty Jones. He gave it everything he had.

As I was watching the events of yesterday and thinking about the ending to WWII, I could not help but turn my attention once again to the battle raging within our nation. We can’t defeat time. No warhead can do it. Praying cannot stop a clock. Americans are aging. Millions are squeezed for co-payments and deductibles. Millions are squeezed due to no health insurance. At present, this is a losing battle. According to Hewitt Associates, in 1998, employees nationwide paid out-of-pocket medical expenses of $385 per year. This year, it’s averaging $1,030. In addition, in 1998, health insurance premiums cost $630. This year employees are paying an average of $1,565. In 1998, employers covered 75% of the health expenses. This year that’s down to 68%. In essence, you have the underinsured and the uninsured. The average hourly paycheck cannot carry the burden of rising healthcare costs.