Saturday, September 13, 2008

United Socialist State Republic of America

9/13/08 United Socialist State Republic of America

Miss Bush : Gov. Sarah Palin linked the war in Iraq with the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, telling an Iraq-bound brigade of soldiers that included her son that they would "defend the innocent from the enemies who planned and carried out and rejoiced in the death of thousands of Americans." The idea that the Iraqi government under Saddam Hussein helped al-Qaeda plan the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, a view once promoted by Bush administration officials, has since been rejected even by the president himself.
Lipstick on a pig is still a pig. McCain/Palin will bring 4 more Bush years. You can go to the United Socialist State Republic of America on that.

Moody's Investor Service downgraded Washington Mutual Inc.'s credit rating to below investment grade late Thursday, citing WaMu's reduced financial flexibility, deteriorating asset quality and expected franchise erosion.

China's industrial production expanded at a slower-than-expected 12.8% in August from a year earlier, its weakest pace in six years, reflecting factory shutdowns for the Olympics and cooling overseas demand for consumer goods. The decline followed a 14.7% rise in July.

Japan's economy shrank 0.7% during the April-June period over the previous quarter -- more than previously estimated -- on a decline in exports and domestic demand, data released by the Cabinet Office showed Friday. The drop translates into a 3% decline in gross domestic product on an annualized basis.

The Federal Reserve and Treasury Department are working to arrange a sale of Lehman Brothers through a consortium of private investors, the Washington Post reported on its Web site late Thursday.

According to AMG Data Services, including ETF activity, Equity funds report net cash Inlows totaling $410 million in August (Outflows -$6.512 Bil xETF activity) as Domestic funds report net inflows of $7.823 billion (-$467 Mil xETFs) and Non-domestic funds report net outflows of -$7.413 billion (-$6.046 Bil xETFs);

Excluding ETF activity, International funds report net outflows totaling -$5.010 billion, as net outlows are reported in all Developed and Emerging regions.

Robert McHugh: "One out of every 7 stocks on the NYSE hit a new 52 week low Thursday. NYSE volume was flat at 125 percent of its 10 day average. Upside volume led at 65 percent, but with declining issues leading at 55 percent, with upside points at 89 percent. S&P 500 Demand Power rose 5 points to 399, while Supply Pressure fell 3 points to 425, telling us short covering was responsible for about 40 percent of the demand. It is amazing how often we have seen dramatic intraday reversals lately. Major news events will do that, driving short-term traders nuts, however the news will not affect the primary or intermediate term trend.

The Daily and Weekly Full Stochastics for the Industrials are all on sell signals at this time, and we continue to believe a major sell-off is in our future this autumn.

We actually got a new "sell" signal in the S&P 500 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator Thursday, diverging bearishly against prices. This poor breadth performance is alarming.

There was a small change in the McClellan Oscillator Thursday, worsening by 7.35 points, suggesting a large price move is coming either Friday or Monday. The 30 Minute and 15 Minute Full Stochastics suggest that move could be down."

Hurricane Ike's pending assault of the Texas Gulf Coast spurred a slew of major oil refineries to shut down Thursday, stoking concerns that the lost output will further strain U.S. fuel supplies and send pump prices higher.

The closures included Exxon Mobil Corp.'s Baytown refinery and BP's Texas City plant, two of the nation's largest fuel-making facilities.

Nouriel Roubini: "The US has performed the greatest nationalization in the history of humanity. By nationalizing Fannie and Freddie the US has increased its public assets by almost $6 trillion and has increased its public debt/liabilities by another $6 trillion. The US has also turned itself into the largest government-owned hedge fund in the world: by injecting a likely $200 billion of capital into Fannie and Freddie and taking on almost $6 trillion of liabilities of such GSEs the US has also undertaken the biggest and most levered LBO (“leveraged buy-out”) in human history that has a debt to equity ratio of 30 ($6,000 billion of debt against $200 billion of equity).

So now Comrades Bush, Paulson and Bernanke (as originally nicknamed by Willem Buiter) have now turned the USA into the USSRA (the United Socialist State Republic of America). Socialism is indeed alive and well in America; but this is socialism for the rich, the well connected and Wall Street. A socialism where profits are privatized and losses are socialized with the US tax-payer being charged the bill of $300 billion."

Sales at U.S. retailers dropped in August as Americans retrenched in the face of mounting job losses and record foreclosures.

The 0.3 percent fall followed a 0.5 percent drop in July, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Excluding automobiles, purchases were down 0.7 percent, the most this year. The Labor Department separately said prices paid to producers fell for the first time this year as energy costs declined.

Consumer spending is faltering as wages haven't kept pace with inflation and the effect of the government's tax rebates fades. Americans are also confronting declining property values and stock prices, indicating even the recent retreat in fuel costs may not be enough to boost sales.

That's what the Bush years have created for Americans on Main Street. Your standard of living is declining and will continue to decline unless change is brought to Washington.

Change does not mean turning your back on sex education in schools. It does not mean voting for torture through waterboarding.

In early Friday trading, Lehman Brothers, which lost three-quarters of its value in the past four days, slumped another 14 percent in trading before the open of exchanges as the securities firm sought buyers. Merrill Lynch & Co. slid 6.8 percent, while American International Group Inc. tumbled 14 percent. Macy's Inc. lost 3.6 percent and led retailers lower after the Commerce Department said chain-store sales fell 0.3 percent in August as increasing job losses and home foreclosures weighed on consumers.

This year's corn production is forecast at 12.1 billion bushels, down 2% from last month's forecast and 8% below 2007, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Friday. Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, yields are expected to average 152.3 bushels per acre, down 2.7 bushels from August but 1.2 bushels above last year. If realized, yield will be the second highest on record, behind 2004, while production will be the second largest, behind last year. Soybean production is forecast at 2.93 billion bushels, down 1% from the August forecast but up 13% from last year. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production on record. Based on Sept. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 40 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from last month and down 1.2 bushels from 2007.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. on Friday said it expects third-quarter net income to fall slightly below the year-ago figure of 62 cents a share. Wall Street analysts expected earnings of 72 cents a share for the restaurant firm, according to a survey by FactSet. Chipotle said the impact of the weakened economy has been greater than expected, leading to comparable restaurant sales in the low single digits for the third quarter.

Chipotle has been a standout performer. There is no place to hide.

U.S. producer prices fell a steeper than expected 0.9% in August, the Labor Department reported Friday, helped by lower energy costs. The decline follows on the heels of a sharp 1.2% gain in July. Excluding food and energy, "core" producer prices rose 0.2% last month. Producer prices are up 9.6% over the past 12 months.

The Oil Drum: " Within the current NHC storm path lies about 5-6 million bpd of US petroleum refining capacity. (Perspective: 5 MMBBL is about 30% of US capacity (about 15 MMBBL), and a bit less than 6% of global capacity (~85 MMBBL). Also, the MMS reported Wednesday that staff has been evacuated from 452 production platforms (63.0%) and 81 rigs (66.9%) – (95.9% of the oil production and 73.1% of the natural gas production has been shut-in as a precautionary measure for Hurricane Ike.)"

U.S. consumer sentiment rose to its highest level this year in September as gasoline prices fell, according to media reports on the University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment index released Friday. The index rose to 73.1 in September from 63.0 in August.

McCain's campaign organization is limited to $84.1 million in public financing. Obama isn't subject to spending restrictions after becoming the first major-party nominee to refuse public funding.

In June and July, Obama spent $5 million on staff; McCain spent $2.8 million, Federal Election Commission reports show. Last week, Obama opened 35 new offices in Pennsylvania, the campaign announced. Obama is also competing in states such as Virginia and North Carolina that in recent elections haven't been hospitable to Democratic presidential nominees. There are 27 offices in Virginia, for example, according to his Web site.

That means McCain and the RNC during the two-month sprint to Nov. 4 will be spending part of their budget matching expenditures Obama has already made. This week, McCain and the RNC began adding campaign staff, with an eye toward doubling the size of the party's ground operation in 14 states.

Hurricane Ike made landfall in southeast Texas around 2:10 a.m. local time Saturday near Galveston, packing winds of 110 miles per hour, just shy of Category 3 strength, shuttering essential oil facilities and threatening to devastate towns along the Gulf of Mexico. The storm was forecast to move northwest at 13 miles per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Arlington Institute

9/12/08 Arlington Institute

Arlington Institute: "Here at the Arlington Institute, we have worked with real precognizant dreamers who have had experience with intelligence services and we have subsequently learned about the hundreds of case studies of individuals who had explicit dreams about the 9/11 affair (people jumping out of burning high rise buildings, etc.), beginning some six months before the event. We have been intrigued with the notion that the human collective unconscious somehow anticipates large impending perturbations. Our WHETHEReport project, for which we are looking for funding, is in fact based upon this dynamic. In telling people about this project I have received strong confirmations of the efficacy of the underlying logic from many individuals around the world.

Well, in the last two days I have received four independent, explicit indications from far removed friends suggesting that something very substantial and disruptive is going to happen to the U.S. within the next 60 days or so. If these warnings manifest themselves in an event of the significance of something like 9/11 then people all over the world should begin to experience dreams and other intuitions suggesting that something extraordinary is about to happen."

Consumer spending without autos rose 0.4 percent last month on a seasonally adjusted basis, less than the 1 percent increase in July, said SpendingPulse, the retail data service of MasterCard Advisors, an arm of MasterCard Worldwide .

"People are focusing on the essentials which are going up and up," said Kamalesh Rao, director of economic research at MasterCard Advisors.

This attention to household staples had caused shoppers to pare back on items such as clothes and consumer electronics, which typically enjoy sales bumps in late summer as students return to school.

A Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst on Thursday cut her profit estimates on Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on expectations for lower equities trading revenue.

Lauren Smith reduced her third-quarter earnings estimate to $1.40 per share from $2.17 per share, and her full-year estimate to $13.57 per share from $14.35 per share

Barry Ritholtz: "The US dollar just hit a one year high. If the ECB begins cutting, or if the dollar continues to rally, we could see the export sector significantly impacted."

Robert McHugh: "We are expecting a crash-like decline in stocks sometime over the next four to six weeks, starting at any time. Maybe now, maybe in a week, maybe two. Things are unraveling fast. Declines are five waves, and rallies are three (corrective), volume is up on declines, and shrinks on rallies, and we continue to get lower highs. What we are expecting pretty soon is lower lows. This coming decline could shock mainstream analysts. We see that the rally from July 15th's lows has formed a rounded top, that the sweet spot of a finishing decline is close at hand. We show that on the top of page 8 in Wednesday's report to subscribers. The HUI could get whacked from this coming decline, as it will be very deflationary, wiping out trillions more in wealth, however this coming equity decline should alert the Master Planners that a massive stimulus and hyperinflation policy should start yesterday, and that stimulus should be the catalyst for a turnaround in precious metals, commodities, and the HUI. If they fail to kickstart the credit creation function, we are headed into an economic black hole not unlike the 1930s."

Russia's foreign exchange reserves fell by $8.9 billion to stand at $573.6 billion during the week ending Sept. 5, the Russian central bank reported on Thursday. Since Aug. 1, when they stood at $597.3 billion, Russia's reserves have declined by nearly $24 billion. Investors have pulled money out of Russia in recent weeks on concerns over escalating geopolitical tensions with the West following the military conflict between Georgia and Russia, falling commodity prices and concerns about state interference in the economy. Russian equities have been battered by an ongoing sell-off, with the RTS stock index falling about 43% year-to-date.

King Pharmaceuticals Inc.said Thursday that it plans to start a cash tender offer to buy shares of Alpharma Inc. for $37 apiece. In late August, King said Alpharma, a fellow specialty-drug maker, rejected its takeover bid for $33 a share.

An index for U.S. import prices fell 3.7% in August -- the first decrease since December and the largest one-month decline since the index was first published monthly in December 1988, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a 1.7% decline. Petroleum prices fell 12.8% -- the largest monthly decrease since April 2003. Overall, import prices were up 16% over the past 12 months. Natural gas prices fell 16.4% -- the largest monthly decrease since October 2006. Excluding all fuels, import prices rose 0.2% in August. Meanwhile, the import price index for foods, feeds and beverages rose 0.7% in August, and are up 15.9% over the past 12 months - the largest annual increase since the index was first published in September 1977.

The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in July, boosted by the largest volume of imported oil in four years, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The seasonally adjusted trade deficit - exports minus imports - grew by 5.7% to $62.2 billion, the most in 16 months. The nominal deficit was larger than the $58.6 billion expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The gap in June was revised higher to $58.8 billion. In July, imports rose 3.9% to a record $230.3 billion, while exports grew 3.3% to a record $168.1 billion. After adjusting for inflation, the real trade deficit rose by 2.7% from a seven-year low in June.

Anatoly Chubais, former head of RAO UES of Russia, is predicting an energy crisis in Russia at the beginning of 2010 if the rate of gas production in the country stagnates.
There have been two cold winters in Russia out of the last seven, Chubais notes, and another one can be expected in 2010. Fuel oil reserves will be insufficient by that time, which could lead to a shortage of 7 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. Electricity and heat can be generated, Chubais reasons, but technical limitations, such as the capacity of electricity generating stations and transportation complexities for fuel oil, hinder it.
Chubais suggests that the energy crisis of 2010 may be “substantial” and require evacuations from a number of cities. “But even those risks can be avoided if electricity reform and the liberalization of the natural gas market are approached sensibly,” he said. Chubais perceives a gas shortage in Russia even as gas export programs are being developed. He referred to gas export as a “sacred cow” that nonetheless had to be dealt with.

The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange traded fund, reported that it sold more than 10 tons of bullion this past Tuesday. That corresponds to 1.7 percent of its total holdings. SPDR now holds "only" 631.2 tons of gold, down from 641.93 tons on Sept. 8. The trust has sold 68.7 tons of gold since its holdings hit a record 705.9 tons two months ago. The current level is still up from the 627 tons reported for December 2007 -- when gold was trading in the $860 range.

The Oil Drum: "Hurricane Ike's current track predicts landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston Saturday morning; but the storm isn't strengthening much yet and the track has been moving northwards--so, because of the wobbles in the track, models are still uncertain. Within the current NHC storm path lies about 5 million bpd of US petroleum refining capacity. (Perspective: 5 MMBBL is about 30% of US capacity (about 15 MMBBL), and a bit less than 6% of global capacity (~85 MMBBL). Also, the MMS reported Wednesday that staff has been evacuated from 452 production platforms (63.0%) and 81 rigs (66.9%) – (95.9% of the oil production and 73.1% of the natural gas production has been shut-in as a precautionary measure for Hurricane Ike.)"

The Labor Department reported that applications for jobless benefits dropped to a seasonally adjusted 445,000, down by 6,000 from the prior week and above analysts' expectations of 440,000.

The four-week moving average, which smooths out week-to-week fluctuations, rose slightly to 440,000.

The number of people continuing to draw jobless benefits increased to a five-year high of 3.53 million, above analysts' expectations.

Sunoco rallied 5 points during the first 4 1/2 hours of trading. Crack spreads have been widening for the refining group. A few months ago I suggested the purchase of Sunoco, Valero, and Frontier, and in addition, a special mention of Marathon Oil at the $40 level.

The U.S. Office of Thrift Supervision said it is monitoring the condition of WaMu, Reuters reported Thursday.

Gloria Steinem: "This isn't the first time a
boss has picked an unqualified woman just because she agrees with him and
opposes everything most other women want and need. Feminism has never been
about getting a job for one woman. It's about making life more fair for
women everywhere. It's not about a piece of the existing pie; there are too
many of us for that. It's about baking a new pie.
Sarah Palin, who was touted all summer by Rush Limbaugh, is no way to
attract most women, including die-hard Clinton supporters. Palin shares
nothing but a chromosome with Clinton . Her down-home, divisive and
deceptive speech did nothing to cosmeticize a Republican convention that has
more than twice as many male delegates as female, a presidential candidate
who is owned and operated by the right wing and a platform that opposes
pretty much everything Clinton's candidacy stood for -- and that Barack
Obama's still does. To vote in protest for McCain/Palin would be like
saying, "Somebody stole my shoes, so I'll amputate my legs."...So let's be clear: The culprit is John McCain. He may have chosen Palin out
of change-envy, or a belief that women can't tell the difference between
form and content, but the main motive was to please right-wing ideologues;
the same ones who nixed anyone who is now or ever has been a supporter of
reproductive freedom. If that were not the case, McCain could have chosen a
woman who knows what a vice president does and who has thought about Iraq ;
someone like Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison or Sen. Olympia Snowe of Maine.
McCain could have taken a baby step away from right-wing patriarchs who
determine his actions, right down to opposing the Violence Against Women
Palin's value to those patriarchs is clear: She opposes just about every
issue that women support by a majority or plurality. She believes that
creationism should be taught in public schools but disbelieves global
warming; she opposes gun control but supports government control of women's
wombs; she opposes stem cell research but approves "abstinence-only"
programs, which increase unwanted births, sexually transmitted diseases and
abortions; she tried to use taxpayers' millions for a state program to shoot
wolves from the air but didn't spend enough money to fix a state school
system with the lowest high-school graduation rate in the nation; she runs
with a candidate who opposes the Fair Pay Act but supports $500 million in
subsidies for a natural gas pipeline across Alaska; she supports drilling in
the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve, though even McCain has opted for the
lesser evil of offshore drilling. She is Phyllis Schlafly, only younger."

Natural-gas inventories rose by 58 billion cubic feet for the week ended Sept. 5, the U.S. Energy Department said Thursday. Total stocks now stand at 2.905 trillion cubic feet, down 146 billion cubic feet from the year-ago level but 82 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, the government data said.

October crude fell $1.71 to close at $100.87 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold for December delivery fell $17, or 2.2%, to close at $745.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the first time the metal closed below $750 since last October.

Foreclosure filings in August increased 27 percent compared to the same month a year ago, a significantly slower pace than in previous months, according to data released Thursday.

Nationwide, 303,800 homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice in August, up 12 percent from July, RealtyTrac Inc. said. That means one in every 416 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing last month.

Thursday, September 11, 2008


9/11/08 OPEC

OPEC cut daily production by 520,000 barrels a day to 28.8 million.
Russia, which attends OPEC conferences as an observer, sent a very senior official, the influential deputy prime minister Igor Sechin.

Analysts linked his attendance to tension between Russia and the West over Moscow's conflict with Georgia.

Russia's energy ministry said Russia wanted to hold regular dialogue with OPEC and had invited representatives to Moscow for a meeting in October.

In the past, Russia has agreed to trim production in line with OPEC output cuts to support prices.

Khelil's estimation of how much output will be removed from the market derived from amounts OPEC members were really producing, rather than agreed limits.

OPEC's new production ceiling is 28.8 million bpd, compared with its earlier target of 29.67 million bpd, ministers said.

France's Total SA, one of the world's biggest oil companies, said Wednesday it expects oil prices to remain high and plans to raise its production.

"We consider that the price of energy, the price of oil will remain strong, high," Total Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie said in an Internet presentation to investors.

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc has told one of its units to stop insuring bank deposits above the amount guaranteed by the U.S. federal government, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The subsidiary, Kansas Bankers Surety Co, is notifying about 1,500 banks in more than 30 states that it will no longer offer a program called "bank deposit guaranty bonds."

Robert McHugh: " The Hindenburg Omen from June still has life, is valid for four months, which would allow for more decline into mid-October. A sharp rally of 1 percent or so Wednesday could generate another observation. Bonds are up over 120 again. The VIX rose sharply. Fear seems everywhere."

"You can wrap an old fish in a piece of paper called change, and it's still going to stink after eight years..."

James Turk: "The Treasury reports the US Gold Reserves monthly at this link: These reserves include "gold held by U.S. Mint facilities", which the report labels as "working stock" and describes it as "the portion of the U.S. government-owned Gold Bullion Reserve that the U.S. Mint uses as the raw material for minting congressionally authorized coins." The August 29, 2008 report says the quantity of working stock is 2,783,218.656 ounces. Yet we are told by the Mint that none of that can be minted into gold eagles? Would Fat Tony say we are a "sucker" to believe that the Mint cannot produce gold eagles to meet demand?

Here's something even more bizarre. One would assume that the size of the Mint's working stock varies from month to month, just like inventory varies from month to month in any business as a result of changes in production and the ebbs and flows in sales. And indeed, the Mint's inventory did vary monthly, up until March 2006. But according to the Treasury's reports, the Mint's working stock has remained exactly 2,783,218.656 ounces since April 2006. How is it possible that the Mint's working stock has remained unchanged for 28 months? Have you ever seen any business anywhere in the world for which its working stock was unchanged for a day, let alone 28 months?...It's really very simple. Fiat currency is a scheme perpetrated by central banks. To make their scheme work, they intervene in the gold market to manipulate the gold price. By doing so they try to make their fiat currency look better.

Thus, it's not gold that is the barbarous relic. The barbarous relic is central banking."

Brazil's economy grew by 6.1% year-on-year in the second quarter, exceeding market expectations of a GDP growth rate of 5.5%, the Brazilian statistics institute IBGE reported Wednesday.

Japan's wholesale inflation remained near a 27-year high in August, the government said Wednesday, as the soaring costs of energy and raw materials continued to pressure businesses.

The index for domestic corporate goods prices rose 7.2 percent from a year ago, the Bank of Japan said.

The U.S. Department of Defense said Wednesday it has canceled a $35 billion contract competition among aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Northrop Grumman to build its next-generation airborne tankers. In a release, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said an award could not be fairly handed out by a January deadline, and he will therefore leave it for the next administration to evaluate the criteria and appropriate budget.

Crude supplies fell by 5.9 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 5, according to the Energy Department Wednesday. Motor gasoline supplies dropped for a seventh week in a row, by 6.5 million barrels. Distillate stocks were down 1.2 million barrels. Refinery utilization was at 78.3% compared with 88.7% of capacity a week earlier.

The American Petroleum Institute reported Wednesday a drop of 21.6 million barrels in crude supplies for the week ended Sept. 5. But that's after an upward revision to the previous week's stocks. The Energy Department had reported a decline of 5.9 million barrels for the latest week. Motor gasoline supplies were down 3 million barrels, the API said. The government had reported that supplies fell by 6.5 million barrels. Distillate supplies were up 3.5 million barrels, the API said. They were down 1.2 million for the week, according to the Energy Department.

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is accusing John McCain's campaign of "lies and phony outrage and Swift-boat politics" in claiming he had made a sexist comment against vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.

Vishay Intertechnology said it has increased its all-cash offer to buy International Rectifier Corp. to $23 a share. The maker of discrete semiconductor products also said it is taking its proposal directly to IRF shareholders.

Republican Rep. Ron Paul, the libertarian-leaning Texas lawmaker who attracted a devoted following in the GOP primaries, said Wednesday he rejected an appeal to endorse John McCain's presidential bid.
"The idea was that he would do less harm than the other candidate," Paul said.

Palin has sought $197 million worth of earmarks for 2009, down about 25 percent from the $256 million she sought in the 2008 budget year. As mayor of tiny Wasilla, Alaska, she hired a lobbyist to seek federal money for special projects. Wasilla obtained 14 earmarks, totaling $27 million, between 2000-2003, according to Taxpayers for Common Sense.

New Zealand's central bank cut its official cash rate by half a percentage point to 7.5% Thursday, a deeper cut than many analysts and investors had expected. "The New Zealand economy is experiencing a marked slowdown, led primarily by the household sector. The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated further in the wake of continued financial market turmoil," Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said in a statement. The New Zealand dollar was down 2.2% against its U.S. counterpart, buying 65.33 cents.

October crude closed at $102.58 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Wednesday, marking a fresh five-month low, down 68 cents for the session. Gold for December delivery fell $29.50, or 3.7%, to $762.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest closing level since Oct. 24, 2007.

The Bank of England will proceed with plans to provide liquidity insurance to financial institutions, but cannot provide banks with long-term funding, Bank of England Gov. Mervyn King told a parliamentary committee Thursday. A special liquidity program put in place this spring will close on schedule on Oct. 21, King said.

British consumers' median expectations for the rate of inflation over the next year rose to 4.4% in August, according to the Bank of England quarterly inflation survey released Thursday.

Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim and has family have built a 6.4% stake in The New York Times Co., according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing late Wednesday.

Brazil's central bank, in a widely expected move, raised its benchmark interest rate Wednesday evening by 75-basis points, to 13.75%.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

No Place To Hide

9/10/08 No Place To Hide

International Herald Tribune: "Brazil and Argentina are ready to stop using U.S. dollars to trade goods between them. Brazil's president tells the Buenos Aires-based Clarin newspaper that exports and imports between the two nations will be bought and sold in local currency — reals and pesos." You can be assured many other countries will follow.
The dollar is worth? That's up to those on the receiving end.

The oil market is balanced, said Ali Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s powerful oil minister, making it less likely the Opec oil cartel will formally decide to cut its output at a meeting later on Tuesday.

Mr Naimi said as he arrived in Vienna in the early hours of Tuesday: “The market is fairly well balanced and we have worked very hard since June’s meeting to bring prices to where they are now.” He added: “Whatever the customers want, we will satisfy.”

Rep. Ron Paul: "The government's thirst for power will not be easily, or cheaply, quenched. Fiat currency is one tool governments have to extract wealth quietly from the working class. It is time for the people to wake up to this ruse and look to the Constitution to restore sound currency."

Robert McHugh: "Don't be fooled by Monday's dramatic stock rally. Read Monday's Market Newsletter to subscribers for the reasons why we say this. We study the internals, the indicators, and the patterns that warn this rally is not to be trusted."

Christian Science Monitor: "One interesting finding in the USA Today poll was the polarizing effect of Palin. According to the survey, 29 percent said her presence on the ticket makes them more likely to vote for McCain, while 21 percent said she made a McCain vote less likely. That kind of reaction mirrors what we are hearing from our communities. The potential net effect: For the remaining 57 days of the campaign, we could be down to the true independent and undecided voters. In terms of Patchwork Nation’s electoral breakdown by community, that may mean that the election really will be about the three county types that were pretty close in 2004 – the wealthy suburban “Monied ’Burbs,” the growing and diversifying “Boom Towns,” and the smaller-town “Service Worker Centers.”

China's passenger-car sales fell in August for the first time in more than three years as the Beijing Olympics and a slumping stock market prompted drivers to delay purchases.

The federal government will run a near-record deficit of $407 billion for the budget year ending Sept. 30, according to the latest Capitol Hill estimates.

The new Congressional Budget Office figures released Tuesday say the flood of red ink will spill over into next year, when the deficit would reach a record $438 billion — and could go even higher as the government takes over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

McDonald's Corp on Tuesday said global sales at restaurants open at least 13 months rose 8.5 percent in August, beating some analysts' expectations, as an Olympics advertising blitz bolstered results.

An index of sales contracts on previously owned U.S. homes fell 3.2% in July from the prior month, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. The index, which is considered a leading indicator of existing home sales, was down 6.8% from the prior year. Pending home sales in July were mixed regionally, with a decline of 10.6% in the West, and 7.5% in the Northeast. In the South, there was no growth. And in the Midwest, there was a gain of 2.8%. The June pending home sales index was revised to a gain of 5.8% from a prior estimate of a 5.3% increase.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker says the U.S. financial system is "broken."

At a banking conference in Calgary, he went on to predict that "Growth in the economy in this decade will be the slowest of any decade since the Great Depression, right in the middle of all this financial innovation.''

"It is the most complicated financial crisis I have ever experienced, and I have experienced a few," said Volcker.

In early Tuesday trading, Lehman shares were down 30% to a new 52-week low at $10+.

Reynolds American Inc. and its subsidiary R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co. said Tuesday they were cutting about 10 percent of their American work force as the company restructures its portfolio.

The nation's second-largest tobacco company said it plans to lay off about 570 workers in Winston-Salem, N.C, where the two companies are based, or about 16 percent of the work force there.

Lehman Bros. shares fell 45% to $7.79 on news that a Korean bank backed away from talks to buy a stake in the New York bank. As Wall Street wondered how the investment bank was going to raise new capital, short-sellers drove the stock lower.

The Dow Jones industrials dropped 280 points, or 2.4%, to 11,231. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 43 points, or 3.4%, to 1,225, and the Nasdaq Composite Index was off 60 points, or 2.6%, to 2,210.

With today's sell-off, the Dow gave up 97% of its gain on Monday and had its 25th loss of 200 or more points this year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw their Monday gains disappear.

At $39.77, Marathon Oil made a new 52-week low. The last time it traded at this level was 2 years ago.

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services late Tuesday said it lowered the outlook on Washington Mutual Inc.and Washington Mutual Bank to negative from stable.

Humana Inc. expects to lose about 308,000 members because its Medicare plan pricing was above premium benchmark rates in 34 regions, the health insurer said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing late Tuesday. The company expects to lose the members on Jan. 1.

October crude dropped $3.08, or 2.9%, to close at $103.26 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Interest-rate futures show traders started betting the Federal Reserve will lower its target interest rate from 2% at the end of this year, a sharp reversal from forecasts for rate increases less than a week ago. The December futures contract on Tuesday showed a 25% chance the central bank will reduce rates to 1.75% at its meeting that month.

Lehman Brothers on Wednesday said it plans to spin off to shareholders $25 billion to $30 billion of its commercial real estate portfolio into a separate, public company. "The concentration of positions in commercial real estate-related assets has become a significant concern for investors and creditors," Lehman said. The Wall Street firm also said it intends to sell a majority stake, estimated at roughly 55%, in a subset of its investment-management business. Lehman Bros. lost $3.9 billion, or $5.62 a share in its third quarter after taking a gross mark to market loss of $7.8 billion. The company also said it cut its quarterly dividend to 5 cents a share.

The International Energy Agency has lowered global oil demand forecasts for 2008 and 2009. For 2008, it sees demand of 86.8 million barrels of oil a day, which is up 0.8% from 2007 levels but 100,000 barrels lower than last month's forecasts. For 2009, it sees oil demand rising to 87.6 million barrels, which is 140,000 barrels lower than last month's estimate.

China's wholesale inflation accelerated at a faster pace than the consumer inflation in August, as raw material costs rose more than an increase in the prices of finished products. The country's PPI for August soared 10.1% over the same month a year-ago, rising faster than the 10% increase recorded in July, according to reports. But a reading of consumer prices grew at a slower-than-expected 4.9% during the month.

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Big Government Gets Bigger

9/9/08 Big Government Gets Bigger

John Hussman: "A record 9.16% of U.S. mortgages were in delinquency (6.41%) or foreclosure (2.75%) as of June 30. This figure will likely be even worse in the third quarter report. The bright side, for what it's worth, is that I expect that we are currently in the heaviest period of this deterioration, and while that means a continued high foreclosure rate and mounting losses for financials over the next quarter or two, it also means that the the rate of change in this deterioration is presently near its peak. In short, we'll continue to see additional mortgage-related losses well into 2009 and even 2010, but I don't expect the rate of new foreclosures to continue accelerating beyond a few more months."

According to Reuters, Europe is interested in finding ways to move forward with projects like the Nabucco pipeline project, the official said of a U.S.- and EU-backed project that would take Azeri gas to Europe through Georgia and Turkey. But concern about instability in the Caucasus has been scaring off investors.

Europe also wants to ensure that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which ships 850,000 barrels per day of high quality Azeri crude from the Caspian to the Mediterranean, remains open and functioning, the U.S. official said.

Wheat plunged to a three-month low on speculation that record global production will outpace demand, boosting grain inventories.

Growers worldwide will collect 670.8 million metric tons in the year ending May 31, up 9.9 percent from the prior year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said last month. Global stockpiles will increase 18 percent to 136.2 million tons, the USDA said. Wheat prices have tumbled 44 percent from a record $13.495 a bushel on Feb. 27.

``The world is awash in wheat,'' said Gavin Maguire, a director of research for EHedger LLC in Chicago. ``Prices will fall to keep supplies moving.''

Obama's campaign is conducting a massive voter-registration drive. Steve Hildebrand, his deputy campaign manager, says three states -- Florida, Michigan and North Carolina --- have more than 400,000 new voters; Georgia and Pennsylvania have more than 300,000. Most of the new voters favor Obama, he says.

Internet advertising has resulted in ``thousands and thousands of click-throughs onto sites where they can register to vote,'' he says, and ``it's something we'll continue through the general election.''

St. George Bank Ltd., Australia's fifth-largest bank, agreed to a revised 17.3 billion Australian dollar ($14.4 billion) takeover proposal by larger rival Westpac Banking Corp. on Monday, in what would be the biggest banking acquisition in Australian history.

JetBlue Airways Corp. is auctioning off more than 300 roundtrip flights and six vacation packages this week on eBay, with opening bids set between 5 and 10 cents.

The flights are to more than 20 destinations, including four "mystery" JetBlue Getaways Vacation packages to undisclosed locations.

The three-, five- and seven-day auctions include one- and two-person roundtrip, weekend flights in September from cities including Boston, Chicago, New York, Orlando, Salt Lake City, Fort Lauderdale and Southern California.

Gehl Co. said Monday that it will be acquired by Manitou BF S.A., its largest shareholder, for $30 a share. The West Bend, Wis., maker of agricultural and construction compact equipment said the deal has an enterprise value of about $450 million. Shares of Gehl closed Friday at $13.66. In premarket trading Monday, shares were up about 112%.

Nouriel Roubini: "Details on the US government bailout of the two GSEs – as well as the bailout of the other GSEs, the Federal Home Loan Banks that recently wasted hundreds of billions by lending to troubled mortgage lending institutions - are still partial but the overall picture is not pretty. This bailout plan has mostly lousy features that exacerbate the moral hazard of this government intervention and the overall fiscal costs of such intervention."

Alan Farago: "Nationalization of private financial institutions is happening right now, under the supervision of the Bush administration and the shield of US taxpayers, while the party values continue to tout the "free market". Free market, to whom?

Today, the Republican spin machine is struggling to pin the socialization-- nationalization, if you will-- of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on someone else...

Today, the Republican spin machine is struggling to pin the socialization-- nationalization, if you will-- of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on someone else. How dare the Republicans accuse "liberals" for being angry about the fire sale of US assets to Asia, the Middle East, and even Russia? Filled up your car at Lukoil recently? The fact is that lefties and liberals have been no where in view, except as community organizers and neighborhood activists.

We didn't hear John McCain, last night in St. Paul, nor will Florida top donors hear Sarah Palin in Miami next week utter a solitary word of the fiscal irresponsibility that pushed the US economy into the biggest crisis since the Great Depression while making many of them a fortune in the process."

Rob Hanna: "It's Monday morning and the futures are up over 3.0% due to the FNM/FRE bailout news. Since 1998 there have been 16 times when the S&P 500 has gapped up 2.0% or more. Eight of those times it closed higher than the open, and eight it closed lower.
Of the 16 instances 10 saw an intraday drop of 1% or more from the opening price and 6 did not.
12 of the 16 broke below the lows of the 1st half hour of trading at some point during the day. Shorting that break and holding until the end of the day would have resulted in 6 winning trades and 6 losing trades.
5 of them broke the lows of the 1st half hour after 10:30am. Of those, 4 went on to close even lower on the day. The lone instance that rebounded closed almost 3% higher, though.
So far I've yet to indentify a sizable edge for trading a gap this large on an intraday basis."

One might ask what part does short covering play when the Dow gaps up 340 points at the opening of trading?

Italy's Eni SpA has agreed to buy Canada's First Calgary Petroleums Ltd in a cash deal worth C$923 million ($865 million), the latest in a series of acquisitions aimed at boosting its oil and gas reserves.

The U.S. labor market will probably continue to weaken "well into 2009," according to the employment trend index released by the Conference Board on Monday. The index, which looks at eight forward-looking indicators of employment, dropped to 110.8 in August, down 0.5% from July and down 8% from a year ago. "The employment trends index continues to rapidly deteriorate, suggesting there is little likelihood of a turnaround in the job market anytime soon," said Gad Levanon, senior economist at research organization. "In fact, the pace of decline points toward job losses and rising unemployment extending well into 2009."

South Korea's Financial Services Commission Chairman Jun Kwang-woo said Tuesday that talks between state-run Korea Development Bank and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.have ended, Dow Jones Newswires reported. He declined to say what conclusions, if any, had been reached, the report said.

British industrial production fell more than expected in July, while manufacturing output declined largely in line with forecasts. The Office for National Statistics said industrial production dropped 0.4% on the month for an annual decline of 1.9%.

Fewer U.S. employers intend to add staff in the fourth quarter, as they "carefully adjust" their workforces to meet demand, according to a survey by Manpower Inc. The Milwaukee employment-services firm surveyed 14,000 employers in the U.S. Of the total, 22% expect to increase their workforces over third-quarter levels, 13% will reduce them, 59% will hold staff steady, and 6% aren't sure, Manpower said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Averagegained 289 points, or 2.6%, to end at 11,510, with 29 of its 30 components advancing. The S&P 500 index gained 25 points, or 2%, to end at 1,267, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 13 points, or 0.6%, to 2,269.

Monday, September 08, 2008

The Rescue

9/8/08 The Rescue

Daniel Webster: “The contest, for all ages, has been to rescue Liberty from the grasp of executive power”

The NY Times reported advisers poring over the books of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac concluded that Freddie’s accounting methods had overstated its cushion, officials said.

Brett Steenbarger: "Money continues to flow out of the stock market...Even when the Dow has bounced from intermediate-term lows, positive money flows have only been sustained for a short period of time--and have represented excellent selling opportunities."

Because of the demand for ethanol, the U.S. expanded corn production by 23 percent in 2007, the World Bank found. At the same time, it reduced soybean fields by 16 percent. The cost of shipping soy from the Midwest to ports in the Pacific Northwest and onward to Asia has increased from $32 a metric ton two years ago to $80, according to Mark Klein, a spokesman for Minnesota-based Cargill Inc., one of four companies that import soybeans to Indonesia.

Barack Obama: “I know the governor of Alaska has been, you know, saying she is change,” Obama said at a town hall here. “But when you (have) been taking all these earmarks when it is convenient and then suddenly you are the champion anti-earmark person. That is not change, come on. I mean, words mean something. You can’t just make stuff up.”

Continued OPEC production at current levels would lead to over-supply of its crude in the
first half of 2009, causing a fall in prices, Iran's OPEC governor was quoted as saying on Sunday. Mohammad Ali Khatibi, speaking two days before OPEC ministers are due to meet in Vienna, said demand for the cartel's oil was forecast at about 31 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first six months of next year.

"OPEC's oil production currently ... is between 32.6 and 32.8 million bpd," Khatibi was quoted as saying by the official IRNA news agency.

BHP Billiton is seeking approval to build a US$3.5 billion water desalinization plant to service its Escondida copper mine in northern Chile, one of the world's top sources of the metal, a company spokesman said Saturday.
BHP, the world's largest mining company, filed a request to build the plant and two 110-mile (180-kilometer) pipelines that would carry water from the Pacific Ocean to the mine in Chile's Atacama Desert, said Santiago-based BHP.

Does this sound familiar?
“I want you to just let a wave of intolerance wash over you. I want you to let a wave of hatred wash over you. Yes, hate is good ... if a Christian voted for Clinton, he sinned against God. It's that simple. Our goal is a Christian nation. We have a biblical duty, we are called by God to conquer this country... former leader of Operation Rescue” Randall Terry (American Founder of the Christian pro-life organization, Operation Rescue)

Herb Allison, a former vice chairman of Merrill Lynch, was selected to head Fannie Mae, and David Moffett, a former vice chairman of US Bancorp, was picked to head Freddie Mac.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says the actions were being taken because "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are so large and so interwoven in our financial system that a failure of either of them would cause great turmoil in our financial markets here at home and around the globe."

"A failure would affect the ability of Americans to get home loans, auto loans and other consumer credit and business finance," Paulson said.

Altria reached terms on a deal to buy smokeless tobacco maker UST for $11.7 billion, including the assumption of $1.3 billion in assumed debt. Altria will pay shareholders of the maker of Copenhagen and Skoal $69.50 per share in cash, which is a 29% premium to its three-month average stock price. UST had surged 25% on Friday on speculation of such a deal.

Commodity futures rose on Monday in reaction to the U.S. government's plan to seize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the struggling mortgage giants. Oil futures rose $1.81 to $108.04 a barrel, gold futures rose $14 to $811.60 an ounce and platinum futures rose $32.20 to $1,400 an ounce.

ConocoPhillips has agreed to pay up to $8 billion for a half share in the coal seam gas assets of Origin Energy Ltd. and an associated liquefied natural gas project in Queensland, Australia.

Sunday, September 07, 2008

Government Takeover

9/7/08 Government Takeover

According to the Associated Press, the government is expected to take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as soon as this weekend in a monumental move designed to protect the mortgage market from the failure of the two companies, which together hold or guarantee half of the nation's mortgage debt, a person briefed on the matter said Friday night.

Some of the details of the intervention, which could cost taxpayers billions, were not yet available, but are expected to include the departure of Fannie Mae CEO Daniel Mudd and Freddie Mac CEO Richard Syron, according to the source, who asked not to be named because the plan was yet to be announced.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and James Lockhart, the companies' chief regulator, met Friday afternoon with the top executives from the mortgage companies and informed them of the government's plan to put the troubled companies into a conservatorship.

Regulators on Friday shut down Silver State Bank, saying the Nevada bank failed because of losses on soured loans, mainly in commercial real estate and land development.

It was the 11th failure this year of a federally insured bank.

Nevada regulators closed Silver State and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was appointed receiver of the bank, based in Henderson, Nev. It had $2 billion in assets and $1.7 billion in deposits as of June 30.

Andrew K. McCain, a son of Republican presidential nominee John McCain, sat on the boards of Silver State Bank and of its parent, Silver State Bancorp, starting in February but resigned in July citing "personal reasons," corporate filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission show. Andrew McCain also was a member of the bank's audit committee, responsible for oversight of the company's accounting.

A light earthquake centered near Alamo shook the Bay Area Friday evening. Reported at 9 p.m., it was a magnitude 4.0, said the U.S. Geological Survey.

General Electric said on Friday that US securities regulators might take civil action against the conglomerate following an investigation into its accounting methods on derivatives.

The US Securities & Exchange Commission issued a "Wells notice" to GE on Thursday alerting the company that investigators may recommend the agency file charges.

Peter Schiff: "Without raising an eyebrow on Wall Street or in the press, the GDP deflator, used in the report to downwardly adjust GDP to account for inflation, was shown at just 1.2% annualized.... the lowest deflator in ten years. In other words, to arrive at a 3.3% growth rate, the government assumed that inflation is running at a ten-year low! In contrast, the latest reading on consumer prices (CPI) in the second quarter shows year-on-year inflation running at a 5.6% rate, a seventeen-year high! In fact, for the second quarter, the same time period measured by the GDP deflator, prices actually rose at an even faster pace of 8.0% annualized. How can it be that inflation is simultaneously running at a seventeen-year high and a ten-year low? Welcome to the Alice in Wonderland world of government statistics....Investors relying on this data and reacting to the global economic slowdown by buying dollars and other U.S. based assets while selling gold, commodities, and foreign assets, are jumping out of the frying pan right into the fire. My guess is that it will not be much longer before they feel the heat."

"John McCain was a cheerleader for us to go into Iraq," Obama told a crowd in Lancaster, Pa., on Thursday. "He was wrong and I was right."

The FT reported friday’s sharp increase in the monthly unemployment to 6.1 per cent – the biggest jump for five years – jolted attention back to the economy and sparked criticism of how little the issue was discussed by Republicans at their gathering in St Paul, Minnesota. “These [Republicans] spent three days [in St Paul] and you wouldn’t know what people are going through in the neighbourhoods because they didn’t talk about it,” Mr Obama told voters in Pennsylvania.

The word “economy” was mentioned fewer than half the times in keynote Republican speeches this week than at the Democratic convention in Denver.

While Mr Obama focused much of his acceptance speech nine days ago on the economic anxieties of middle-class Americans, Mr McCain’s address on Thursday dwelled mostly on his military record and a call for Americans to put their “country first”.

Representative Charles B. Rangel paid no interest for more than a decade on a mortgage extended to him by a company connected to a donor to his campaigns.

Paul Krugman: "The experience of the years since 2000 — the memory of what happened to working Americans when faux-populist Republicans controlled the government — is still fairly fresh in voters’ minds. Furthermore, while Democrats’ supposed contempt for ordinary people is mainly a figment of Republican imagination, the G.O.P. really is the Gramm Old Party — it really does believe that the economy is just fine, and the fact that most Americans disagree just shows that we’re a nation of whiners.

But the Democrats can’t afford to be complacent. Resentment, no matter how contrived, is a powerful force, and it’s one that Republicans are very, very good at exploiting."

Barack Obama's campaign plans to employ high-profile female supporters in an effort to blunt GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin's potential to persuade women to vote Republican. Hillary Clinton, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius all were scheduled to campaign for Obama in the coming weeks.

Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan's largest brokerage group, is considering buying a stake in U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers, a Japanese newspaper reported Saturday.

The Oil Drum: "Hurricane Ike, a dangerous Category 3 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale and projected to grow again into a potentially devastating Category 4, appeared increasingly likely to hit Cuba and then target the oil fields of the Gulf.

While long-range storm tracks are subject to huge errors, Ike could potentially follow Hurricane Gustav, plowing through an area that produces a quarter of domestic U.S. oil, and slam ashore near New Orleans, which was swamped and traumatized by Hurricane Katrina three year ago."

Nearly one in five U.S. households gets their TV online, double the number in 2006, a new survey shows. It would be interesting to see what percentage of these households vote in November and what percentage voted for Obama and what percentage for McCain.

According to the Washington Post, half of all those polled view Palin favorably and 37 percent hold negative opinions. Men are somewhat more apt to view her favorably, but that is mainly because women are far more likely to be Democrats. In the new poll, it is underlying political attitudes that appear to dominate, just as they do in ratings of Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.), the Democratic vice presidential nominee. Eighty-five percent of Republicans view Palin favorably, and nearly nine in 10 approve of her selection as Sen. John McCain's running mate. Among Democrats, 24 percent view her favorably and 57 percent disapprove of her selection.

Nationwide, there are about 42 million registered Democrats and about 31 million Republicans, according to statistics compiled by The Associated Press.

The Democrats have posted big gains in many competitive states, including Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Florida. They have also been targeting historically Republican southern states.

Since 2006, the Democrats have added 167,000 voters in North Carolina, while the Republicans have added 36,000. The Democrats' biggest voter registration goal is in Georgia, where the Obama campaign hopes to register 500,000 voters before the election, said Dean, who has spent the past month traveling the country on a voter registration bus tour.

"The Obama folks are serious about Georgia," Dean said. Georgia has added 337,000 voters since 2006, but the state does not identify them by party affiliation.
In Pennsylvania, the Democrats have added 375,000 voters since 2006 while the Republicans have lost 117,000.

Mike Burk: "The market is oversold and likely to rally over the next few days. That rally should be followed by a retest of the July lows by the SPX and Dow Jones Industrial Average. The retest should mark the final low for the rest of the year.
I expect the major indices to be higher on Friday September 12 than they were on Friday September 5."