Saturday, October 16, 2004

10/16/04 A Parliament Of Whores

Yesterday it was Alan Greenspan's turn to calm the markets. He is not terribly concerned about the price of crude oil at $54.93 because a few decades ago the impact on our economy was much greater. Today the rising price has only cut about 0.75% from our GDP growth. He did not discuss the psychological changes that have occurred in the equity markets and the resulting losses running into more than 0.75% of our GDP growth. He didn't mention the thermostats that will be turned down this winter with record high home heating oil prices. Like almost every government employee, he didn't really tell the full story. Then again, back in May, he stated he wasn't concerned about the short term- only the long term. Why should he worry in the short term? His job is secure in the short term. His two-job household is not concerned with making ends meet. His is not a paycheck-to-paycheck home.

P.J. O'Rourke: "Every government is a parliament of whores. The trouble is, in a democracy, the whores are us."

In the year ended June 2004, according to the Labor Dept, the Washington DC area added 82,000 jobs, including 31,000 local govt contracting jobs, more than any other metropolitan area. So much for small govt under a Republican administartion.

Benjamin Franklin: "They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."

The Bush administration's annual review of foreign exchange policy has been delayed.

Yesterday was the first day of the holy month of Ramadan.

The U.S. Economic Cycle Research Institute stated their weekly leading index fell 1% last week, the slowest growth in 81 weeks. The index has fallen for nine straight weeks, and the ECRI economists remarked the data shows the economy is not reacclerating out of the soft patch. In fact, the opposite is the case.

The October University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 87.5 from 94.2 in September.

Capacity utilization in September was unchanged at 77.2%, and U.S. industrial production rose 0.1% in the same period, weaker than expectations.

Many have asked why, if I think the economic news is so bad, how is it possible that consumer spending picked up in September. It's easy to explain: (1) GM, Ford, and Chrysler gave enormous incentives to move cars off dealer lots. Only Chrysler made money from vehicles in the month; and (2) the food and beverage and building materials areas were bolstered by the hurricanes. That's correct. People stocked up before and after the storms. As Wal-Mart stated, hurricanes are a net plus for their business. The same is true for Home Depot and Lowe's.

The Empire State manufacturing index fell to 17.4 in October from 27.3 in September. The new orders index fell to 21.2 in October from 26.2 in the prior month, shipments to to 19.1 from 32.1, the unfilled orders index to MINUS 2.7 from 11.7, the employment index to 17.7 from 20.3, and the workweek index to 4.9 from 17.3. Prices paid rose to a record 59.2 from 52, but prices received fell to 15.0 from 16.3. This report reflects trouble with a capital T.

Sprint to cut 700 jobs.

Standard & Poor's yesterday lowered GM's credit ratings to just above junk level. What happens when profitability dries up at GMAC?

Yesterday the U.S. Conference of Mayors issued their sixth annual metro economies report demonstrating that the nation's 318 metro areas acccount for 85.4% of the nation's GDP and 88.6% of the labor income. In 2003, a total of 109 million workers were employed in metro areas, amounting to 84% of total national employment. Of the world's 100 largest economies, 47 are U.S. metro areas. Tom Cochran, executive director of the U.S. COnference of Mayors, stated "contrary to popular belief, it's not the economy of the 50 states that drives this nation. It's the 318 metro economies- made up of cities- that are the strength of this nation." He reported that the nation still had lost over 1 million jobs since its peak employment level in March 2001.

Alan Greenspan: "Our fiscal prospects are, in my judgment, a significant obstacle to long-term stability, because the budget deficit is not readily subject to correction by market forces that stabilize other imbalances."

During the 12 months ended in September, retail jobs rose by only 94,000.

The Education Dept. estimates that elementary and secondary student population grew by only 160,000 in 2004. This slowing growth will hold down the need for hiring teachers. As such, over the past year, the education sector added but 135,000 jobs.

Frank Luntz, a pollster and president of the Luntz Research Companies: "Asserting that the economy is strong and Iraq a success is simply not credible to the majority of Americans- or to the stubborn 5% who remain uncommitted...It is George W. Bush who should be worried."

Friday, October 15, 2004

10/15/04 Hitting The Ceiling

A year ago the Congress raised the debt ceiling by about $1 trillion to $7.384 trillion. At the start of Bush's term in office, the ceiling was $6 trillion, and had been stable for several years under Clinton. A year ago I mentioned that, the way Bush spends money coupled with the rising trade deficit, the Treasury would be back asking the Congress to raise the debt limit prior to the end of 2004. The Treasury ate through that $1 trillion and face a debt refunding on November 3, the day after the election. This will be the third time in four years that the Congress has been asked to raise the debt ceiling, a first, and is a true reflection of Bush's fiscal irresponsibility. His spending and that of the Republican controlled Congress is a WMD. You don't have to search in caves for the WMD. It's all around you. We're choking on pork. With conservatives like this, Saddam Hussein almost looks like a saint. Bush is destroying the economic well being of this nation.

Milton Berle: "You can lead a man to Congress, but you can't make him think."

Humphrey Bogart: "They'll nail anyone who ever scratched his ass during the National Anthem."

Hitting oil jumped 5 cents a gallon to $1.55 and crude oil closed at a new high of $54.62 a barrel. Heating oil supplies fell by 2.5 million barrels last week, and are 8% below last year's levels, stated the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Some believe China's oil imports will jump 20% next year. I question that. On the whole, China's demand for imports eased last month, an indication that country's growth is slowing.

In a Guardian of London Poll, three times as many of their readers support Kerry for president than they do Bush. The Guardian invited their readers to contact voters in Clark County, Ohio, which is 30 miles west of Columbus, about the importance of the Nov. 2 election. For the best four letters, the paper offered a three-day trip to Clark County. The paper paid $25 for a list of all registered voters in Clark County. The Guardian has received thousands of requests for names and addresses so that letters could be written to the registered voters in Clark County.

In August, the U.S. trade deficit increased to a near monthly record of $54 billion. It was the third straight month that the trade defcit exceeded $50 billion. It was the third time ever that the $50 billion level had been topped. It should be noted that this was taking place in August while our exports rose to the second highest level on record. The trade deficit keeps rising even though our dollar has fallen 13% on a trade-weighted basis over the past two years.

Our budget deficit rose to a record $413 billion. Without the assistance of record low interest rates, the deficit would have been even higher.

Lenny Bruce: "The only anonymous donor is the guy who knocks up your daughter."

For the latest week, initial jobless claims rose 15,000 to 352,000. This should not have come as a surprise.

In the third quarter, GM lost money on their vehicle manufacturing operations in the U.S., Europe, and North America. It was the first loss on North American car manufacturing in six years.Their financing arm produced enough earnings to put their disappointing results in the black. What good is it to keep producing vehicles at unrealistically high levels only to sell them at a loss? The stockholders suffer and our GDP becomes overstated. To produce at a loss does not reflect a healthy GDP.

It's hard to understand. Despite the fact that the stock market is down for the past three months, optimism remains high on Wall Street. Company forecasts are reduced on a daily basis, and yet optimism remains high. For example, Lam Research stated that bookings for the fourth quarter will be down 5% to 15% and that demand has tapered off from earlier expectations.The consumer has gone into a shell, and optimism remains high in some corners for the holiday season. With high gas and heating oil prices pressuring consumer cash flow, I figure much of the holiday spending will be for gift cards. In addition, much of the window shopping activity will be driven to the internet rather than to the malls.

Robert Heinlein: "The supreme irony of life is that hardly anyone gets out of it alive."

Even though GM will cut 12,000 jobs in Europe over the next two years, this measure will not be sufficient to produce a profit in their operations there. Since 1999, GM has lost money in Europe.

Thursday, October 14, 2004

10/14/04 The Truth

Elvis Presley: "Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't goin' away."

The title of the 8/6/2001 Presidential Daily Briefing by Condi Rice: "Bin Laden determined to attack inside the U.S."

Heating oil hit a record $1.50 a gallon and November crude settled at $53.64 a barrel.

Novellus stated that its orders in September "weakened significantly."

The BLS revised productivity in the second quarter to 1.5% in the business sector and to 2.5% in the nonfarm sector. Real hourly compensation for manufacturing declined 1.5%, the largest quarterly decline since the second quarter of 2000, and unit labor costs dropped 3.5%.

The Conference Board reported that chief executives' confidence declined again, to 63 at the end of the third quarter from 70 in the prior quarter. Both current conditions and expectations softened.

According to the latest Zogby poll, Bush has lost the support of the largest segments of the Arab American populations- Roman Catholics and those born in the U.S.

The API reported that September oil output was at its lowest monthly level in 50 years.

Copper prices fell the most in 16 years in London amid speculation that growth is cooling in China and the U.S. Profit taking certainly did play a role too. In addition, there is the believe that next year's copper production will be sufficent to meet demand.

There have not been any hurricanes in October and hopefully that will continue to be the case. Therefore, in October, no one can blame the lack of hiring on hurricanes. Look around you. How many companies do you see or hear that are hiring? I'm not talking temporary work or seasonal work for the holidays. Go to any state. The layoffs and the plant closings are dwarfing the serious hiring. Analysts missed the point of the Intel report. This company doesn't have a stupid CFO. In a month's time, his projection for their quarterly tax rate wasn't even close. Intel's business in September in the U.S. weakened significantly. That was also true of Novellus. How many other key tech companies had the same experience? Technology is the growth engine in our economy. That engine is sputtering. I Pods can only carry a myriad of songs- not the economy.

Wednesday, October 13, 2004

10/13/04 Is Bush's Time Up?

John Edwards: "I guarantee you, George Bush is going to do everything he can to put lipstick on this pig. But no matter how much lipstick you put on it, it's still a pig."

The Crawford, TX Iconoclast: "Kerry Will Restore American Dignity." The Iconoclast majority owner was a fervent supporter of Ronald Reagan.

Germany's Defense Minister stated his country might deploy troops in Iraq if conditions there change.

Gasoline prices rose to $2.03 a gallon, the highest ever for October and the highest price in four months.

Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley: "Higher energy costs may reduce consumer spending on other goods and services by $30 to $40 billion in coming months."

Ethan Harris, chief economist at Lehman Bros: "Consumer spending is going to lag unless you get rapid job growth, and it doesn't look like that's going to happen."

Intel's effective tax rate for the third quarter was 21.4% versus the July expectation of 31% and below the September expectation of 29.5%. In other words, their mix of business changed drastically in a very short time. Higher profits were generated in lower tax jurisdictions, simply put, outside the U.S. In sum, Intel reduced its tax provision for the quarter by $195 million, increasing earnings by 3 cents per share. Gross margins fell to 55.7% from an expected level of 58%, primarily the result of inventory reserve adjustments. The company used cash of $2.5 billion to repurchase 106.3 million shares of stock. Flash memory units were flat. Many analysts believe the report represented good news. I continue to believe long term holders will be rewarded. The short-term is clouded.

In the Iraq war, 1,075 of our U.S. soldiers have been killed and 7,750 wounded. For what?

According to the USDA, farmers will harvest 11.6 billion bushels of corn, 15% more than in 2003, and 3.1 billion bushels of soybeans, up 27% from the prior year. Both would be records.

Late in 1931 and again in Roosevelt's inauguration in 1933, the Fed sensed (incorrectly) that the economy was picking up steam and raised interest rates. After each rate hike the economy fell further. In the 1930s, foreigners did not own vast amounts of our Treasury bonds, stocks, and real estate.

The Bank of International Settlements: "Given the current low level of inflation and the uncertainty of forecasts, the episodes of declining prices... cannot be ruled out...most advanced industrial economies might be one deep recession away from experiencing deflation."

According to congressional estimates, Joseph Abate, Lehman Bros economist, stated the cost of the full Bush economic package would exceed 2.2 trillion dollars over the next decade while Kerry's plan would likely increase debt by 1.1 trillion dollars over the same period. Both results are unsatisfactory; however, Bush played the fear card when he stated the Kerry plan would lead to increased taxes. Bush's package creates twice the debt and is the greater danger to our economic well being and will lead to lower living standards. He has nothing left in his arsenal but the fear card. It's a transparent nothing.

Billy Graham: "When wealth is lost, nothing is lost; when health is lost, something is lost. When charcter is lost, all is lost."

Norway is the world's third largest oil exporter. Yesterday they were facing a rig strike.

Tuesday, October 12, 2004

10/12/04 Families Left Behind
A recent non-partisan study funded by Annie E. Casey, Ford and Rockefeller foundations paints a portrait of working low-income families. The study concluded that one out of every four working families earns such a low wage that they struggle to survive financially, and that "one emergency- a broken down car, rent increase, or serious illness- can disrupt the families’ precarious equilibrium and plunge them into financial chaos. We are talking about 9.2 million families including 20 million children. Their breadwinners work an average of 1.2 jobs, and 72% were born in the U.S.
Retiree health care benefits are being cut as costs escalate. More and more companies raise premiums and reduce coverage for former workers, despite in many cases, a company guaranteed medical benefits for life.
The IEA stated that demand for oil is rising faster than had recently been forecast, and this provided the fuel for crude to rise above $54 a barrel. The average cost of unleaded gas on a national basis in the U.S. is now $2 a gallon. The rising price of gasoline at the pump places a further squeeze on the pocketbooks of middle and lower-middle class working families. Retailers have already begun to feel the impact. Estimates for fourth quarter GDP will be reduced.
An eruption could occur at any time at Mt. St. Helens and without much warning. Temperatures are rising in the crater and magma is pushing out and up.
The dollar is at a one-month low against the yen.
Ten-year Treasury bond yields are back down to 4.09% and only about 11 basis points from the most recent low point. Gold also continues on a firm footing.
Brandon Roberts, co-author of Working Hard, Falling Short remarked "what we haven’t come to grips with is how large this number is" of working low-income families.

Sunday, October 10, 2004

10/10/04 Eliminating The Guessing

Normally, it is quite difficult to get a handle on the monthly nonfarm payroll numbers; however, that was not the case this past Friday. Greg Mankiw, head of the President's Council of Economic Advisors, alluded to the yearly revisions two days before they were released. In addition, the Challenger, Gray, & Christmas monthly announced hiring and layoffs were completely one-sided. John Challeneger stated, that based on the numbers, he believed the Friday report would be disappointing because there were hardly any hires. Lastly, the daily plant closings and layoffs have been escalating in recent weeks. In the end, it simply required piecing the information together and reaching a conclusion. Those caught flatfooted did not do their homework.
It is appropriate that we study the latest AP-Ipros Consumer Confidence survey that slipped 6 points in September to its lowest levels since mid-summer amid worries about high energy prices, uncertainty about the labor market, and anxiety about making major purchases like a new car or a home. The number of people who feel confident about job security and themselves and for people they know dropped from 48% to 40% in September, and the number who were more confident of their ability to invest in the future dropped from 51% to 42%.
Consumers cutback on their borrowing in August by the largest amount since the end of 1990.
Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center, talking about home heating oil prices stated "the bottom line is that because they are spending more to stay warm, they will have less discretionary income."
For the fourth time in five years the House Ethics Committee rebuked the Republican Majority Leader, Tom DeLay of Texas.
Thousands of full-time Albertson employees in the Dall-FW area are being reduced to part-time hours.
Congressman Steny Hoyer: "In 2004, the Republican Congress failed to enact a budget- the first time in 30 years that this has happened when the same party controls the House, Senate, and White House. Today you might call this Republican Congress the do less than nothing Congress."
According to SurePayroll, in California the average small business saw employment for the year 2004 up 5.7% but average salaries are down 5.9%.