3/19/05 Sentiment
We are approaching a change in the seasons. We are approaching the second anniversary of our invasion of Iraq. We are approaching a lull between the peak heating oil period and the peak driving season. There are only 9 trading days left in the first quarter, and then we arrive in April. The period between April and October are often disappointing for stock returns. Not surprisingly, sentiment frequently turns more negative. Interestingly, February marked the third consecutive month for declining consumer confidence. Despite rising net worth resulting from escalating real estate values, record gas prices at the pump have hastened consumer worries and a loss of confidence. As a contrarian, this may prove a good time to take some money off the table in your energy stocks. The price of crude is up about 30% this year, and the head of the IMF stated we will face high oil prices for the next two years. I would not want to follow in the mental footsteps of the IMF.
Following the money trail has been an adventure in 2005. Surprisingly, year-to-date, M3 has only expanded at a 2% rate. On the other hand, bank credit has expanded at a 19.4% rate and real estate loans by 19% year-to-date. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index continues to expand off the chart as it's up 24.1% year-to-date. This type of increase is unsustainable, and is one more reason to take some money off the commodity table.
In a new Harris Poll, a 58% to 35% majority disapproves of the president's position on Social Security.
India's government proposed on Friday to change the country's patent laws to make it illegal to copy patented drugs. The existing patent law has allowed drug makers to copy patented drugs as long as they use a different process. India is the fourth largest producer of medicines by volume in the world.
Yesterday, Palatin Technologies and King Pharmaceuticals announced positive results from a clinical study evaluating the effect of co-administration of intranasal PY-141 and Viagra in patients with erectile dysfunction. On average, erectile activity duration was increased by a factor of 5.3, which is statistically significant. The mechanism of action of PT-141 may offer important benefits over currently available products for the treatment of erectile dysfunction because it appears to act on the pathway that controls sexual function without acting directly on the vascular system.
Saturday, March 19, 2005
Friday, March 18, 2005
Say It Isn't So
3/18/05 Say It Isn't So
Last month's U.S. import prices rose 6.1% year-over-year with oil import prices up 0.8%. Meanwhile, our export prices were flat. That doesn't make for good news on company margins.
Yesterday, gas prices at the pump reached a new all-time high with a national average of $2.055 a gallon.
Last year, China's imports of crude grew by 34.8% over the year ago period. They get 50% of their crude supplies from the Middle East, while the U.S. gets but 10%.
Due to a deceleration of wireless sales, RadioShack warned that 1st quarter earnings would be 30-34 cents and not 39-41. In addition, they stated full year results would trail previous estimates.
Oracle raised their offer for Retek to $11.25, and topped SAP's $11 bid. Multiple offers and bidding wars remind me of the real estate market in the Bay Area and Malibu.
According to SEMI, the February 2005 Book-To-Bill Report Ratio was 0.78 or $78 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month. The senior director of SEMI remarked that "current three-month average bookings are at a level observed in late 2003. Given the 300-mm investment and ramp underway worldwide, the expectation remains for a much more moderated equipment cycle in 2005 compared to the 2001/2002 time frame."
Aftertax corporate profits as a percentage of GDP equated to 7.92% in 2004. The last time this percentage was exceeded was in 1929. With rising inflation, one can expect this percentage to drop closer to the norm, which is between 4% and 6.5%. As corporate profit margins decline, so should P/E ratios, and therefore, stock prices. Just be patient. They don't ring a bell.
China's central bank raised the interest rate on mortgages and encouraged down payments equal to 30% of the purchase price, instead of 20%. China's real estate prices rose close to 11% in the fourth quarter of last year.
The Senate voted to eliminate all Medicaid cuts from the proposed 2006 fiscal budget.
Health care costs amount to $1,400 per vehicle at GM and at least $1,000 per vehicle at Ford.
In a new study by the UCLA Anderson Forecast team, it was revealed that half of the private-sector jobs created in California in the last two years are connected in some way to real estate. Meanwhile, property values in the last four years have swelled $1.7 trillion, the equivalent of about 35% of the total personal income in the state since 2001. California had better pray the real estate bubble does not burst. Incredibly, there are 423,000 licensed real estate agents and brokers in the state now, up 25% from 2003. The number represents 2% of all working-age Californians.
The Philly Fed Index fell to a 20-month low of 11.4 in March from 23.9 in February. Economists were expecting 19.9.
The Dallas Morning News reported that $640 billion has been cashed out from homes. That's one active ATM.
During the six-month span through February, the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators decreased 0.1%.
Total public debt in the U.S. in 1984 was just short of $1.7 trillion. Currently, it is $7.7 trillion. If this 20-year growth rate were for a high-tech company, the P/E ratio would probably be off the charts.
Section 13301 of the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990 (The Fritz Hollings Amendment) prohibits commingly Social Security funds with general revenue funds.
Last month's U.S. import prices rose 6.1% year-over-year with oil import prices up 0.8%. Meanwhile, our export prices were flat. That doesn't make for good news on company margins.
Yesterday, gas prices at the pump reached a new all-time high with a national average of $2.055 a gallon.
Last year, China's imports of crude grew by 34.8% over the year ago period. They get 50% of their crude supplies from the Middle East, while the U.S. gets but 10%.
Due to a deceleration of wireless sales, RadioShack warned that 1st quarter earnings would be 30-34 cents and not 39-41. In addition, they stated full year results would trail previous estimates.
Oracle raised their offer for Retek to $11.25, and topped SAP's $11 bid. Multiple offers and bidding wars remind me of the real estate market in the Bay Area and Malibu.
According to SEMI, the February 2005 Book-To-Bill Report Ratio was 0.78 or $78 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month. The senior director of SEMI remarked that "current three-month average bookings are at a level observed in late 2003. Given the 300-mm investment and ramp underway worldwide, the expectation remains for a much more moderated equipment cycle in 2005 compared to the 2001/2002 time frame."
Aftertax corporate profits as a percentage of GDP equated to 7.92% in 2004. The last time this percentage was exceeded was in 1929. With rising inflation, one can expect this percentage to drop closer to the norm, which is between 4% and 6.5%. As corporate profit margins decline, so should P/E ratios, and therefore, stock prices. Just be patient. They don't ring a bell.
China's central bank raised the interest rate on mortgages and encouraged down payments equal to 30% of the purchase price, instead of 20%. China's real estate prices rose close to 11% in the fourth quarter of last year.
The Senate voted to eliminate all Medicaid cuts from the proposed 2006 fiscal budget.
Health care costs amount to $1,400 per vehicle at GM and at least $1,000 per vehicle at Ford.
In a new study by the UCLA Anderson Forecast team, it was revealed that half of the private-sector jobs created in California in the last two years are connected in some way to real estate. Meanwhile, property values in the last four years have swelled $1.7 trillion, the equivalent of about 35% of the total personal income in the state since 2001. California had better pray the real estate bubble does not burst. Incredibly, there are 423,000 licensed real estate agents and brokers in the state now, up 25% from 2003. The number represents 2% of all working-age Californians.
The Philly Fed Index fell to a 20-month low of 11.4 in March from 23.9 in February. Economists were expecting 19.9.
The Dallas Morning News reported that $640 billion has been cashed out from homes. That's one active ATM.
During the six-month span through February, the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators decreased 0.1%.
Total public debt in the U.S. in 1984 was just short of $1.7 trillion. Currently, it is $7.7 trillion. If this 20-year growth rate were for a high-tech company, the P/E ratio would probably be off the charts.
Section 13301 of the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990 (The Fritz Hollings Amendment) prohibits commingly Social Security funds with general revenue funds.
3/18/05 Say It Isn't So
Last month's U.S. import prices rose 6.1% year-over-year with oil import prices up 0.8%. Meanwhile, our export prices were flat. That doesn't make for good news on company margins.
Yesterday, gas prices at the pump reached a new all-time high with a national average of $2.055 a gallon.
Last year, China's imports of crude grew by 34.8% over the year ago period. They get 50% of their crude supplies from the Middle East, while the U.S. gets but 10%.
Due to a deceleration of wireless sales, RadioShack warned that 1st quarter earnings would be 30-34 cents and not 39-41. In addition, they stated full year results would trail previous estimates.
Oracle raised their offer for Retek to $11.25, and topped SAP's $11 bid. Multiple offers and bidding wars remind me of the real estate market in the Bay Area and Malibu.
According to SEMI, the February 2005 Book-To-Bill Report Ratio was 0.78 or $78 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month. The senior director of SEMI remarked that "current three-month average bookings are at a level observed in late 2003. Given the 300-mm investment and ramp underway worldwide, the expectation remains for a much more moderated equipment cycle in 2005 compared to the 2001/2002 time frame."
Aftertax corporate profits as a percentage of GDP equated to 7.92% in 2004. The last time this percentage was exceeded was in 1929. With rising inflation, one can expect this percentage to drop closer to the norm, which is between 4% and 6.5%. As corporate profit margins decline, so should P/E ratios, and therefore, stock prices. Just be patient. They don't ring a bell.
China's central bank raised the interest rate on mortgages and encouraged down payments equal to 30% of the purchase price, instead of 20%. China's real estate prices rose close to 11% in the fourth quarter of last year.
The Senate voted to eliminate all Medicaid cuts from the proposed 2006 fiscal budget.
Health care costs amount to $1,400 per vehicle at GM and at least $1,000 per vehicle at Ford.
In a new study by the UCLA Anderson Forecast team, it was revealed that half of the private-sector jobs created in California in the last two years are connected in some way to real estate. Meanwhile, property values in the last four years have swelled $1.7 trillion, the equivalent of about 35% of the total personal income in the state since 2001. California had better pray the real estate bubble does not burst. Incredibly, there are 423,000 licensed real estate agents and brokers in the state now, up 25% from 2003. The number represents 2% of all working-age Californians.
The Philly Fed Index fell to a 20-month low of 11.4 in March from 23.9 in February. Economists were expecting 19.9.
The Dallas Morning News reported that $640 billion has been cashed out from homes. That's one active ATM.
During the six-month span through February, the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators decreased 0.1%.
Total public debt in the U.S. in 1984 was just short of $1.7 trillion. Currently, it is $7.7 trillion. If this 20-year growth rate were for a high-tech company, the P/E ratio would probably be off the charts.
Section 13301 of the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990 (The Fritz Hollings Amendment) prohibits commingly Social Security funds with general revenue funds.
Last month's U.S. import prices rose 6.1% year-over-year with oil import prices up 0.8%. Meanwhile, our export prices were flat. That doesn't make for good news on company margins.
Yesterday, gas prices at the pump reached a new all-time high with a national average of $2.055 a gallon.
Last year, China's imports of crude grew by 34.8% over the year ago period. They get 50% of their crude supplies from the Middle East, while the U.S. gets but 10%.
Due to a deceleration of wireless sales, RadioShack warned that 1st quarter earnings would be 30-34 cents and not 39-41. In addition, they stated full year results would trail previous estimates.
Oracle raised their offer for Retek to $11.25, and topped SAP's $11 bid. Multiple offers and bidding wars remind me of the real estate market in the Bay Area and Malibu.
According to SEMI, the February 2005 Book-To-Bill Report Ratio was 0.78 or $78 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month. The senior director of SEMI remarked that "current three-month average bookings are at a level observed in late 2003. Given the 300-mm investment and ramp underway worldwide, the expectation remains for a much more moderated equipment cycle in 2005 compared to the 2001/2002 time frame."
Aftertax corporate profits as a percentage of GDP equated to 7.92% in 2004. The last time this percentage was exceeded was in 1929. With rising inflation, one can expect this percentage to drop closer to the norm, which is between 4% and 6.5%. As corporate profit margins decline, so should P/E ratios, and therefore, stock prices. Just be patient. They don't ring a bell.
China's central bank raised the interest rate on mortgages and encouraged down payments equal to 30% of the purchase price, instead of 20%. China's real estate prices rose close to 11% in the fourth quarter of last year.
The Senate voted to eliminate all Medicaid cuts from the proposed 2006 fiscal budget.
Health care costs amount to $1,400 per vehicle at GM and at least $1,000 per vehicle at Ford.
In a new study by the UCLA Anderson Forecast team, it was revealed that half of the private-sector jobs created in California in the last two years are connected in some way to real estate. Meanwhile, property values in the last four years have swelled $1.7 trillion, the equivalent of about 35% of the total personal income in the state since 2001. California had better pray the real estate bubble does not burst. Incredibly, there are 423,000 licensed real estate agents and brokers in the state now, up 25% from 2003. The number represents 2% of all working-age Californians.
The Philly Fed Index fell to a 20-month low of 11.4 in March from 23.9 in February. Economists were expecting 19.9.
The Dallas Morning News reported that $640 billion has been cashed out from homes. That's one active ATM.
During the six-month span through February, the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators decreased 0.1%.
Total public debt in the U.S. in 1984 was just short of $1.7 trillion. Currently, it is $7.7 trillion. If this 20-year growth rate were for a high-tech company, the P/E ratio would probably be off the charts.
Section 13301 of the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990 (The Fritz Hollings Amendment) prohibits commingly Social Security funds with general revenue funds.
Say It Isn't So
3/18/05 Say It Isn't So
Last month's U.S. import prices rose 6.1% year-over-year with oil import prices up 0.8%. Meanwhile, our export prices were flat. That doesn't make for good news on company margins.
Yesterday, gas prices at the pump reached a new all-time high with a national average of $2.055 a gallon.
Last year, China's imports of crude grew by 34.8% over the year ago period. They get 50% of their crude supplies from the Middle East, while the U.S. gets but 10%.
Due to a deceleration of wireless sales, RadioShack warned that 1st quarter earnings would be 30-34 cents and not 39-41. In addition, they stated full year results would trail previous estimates.
Oracle raised their offer for Retek to $11.25, and topped SAP's $11 bid. Multiple offers and bidding wars remind me of the real estate market in the Bay Area and Malibu.
According to SEMI, the February 2005 Book-To-Bill Report Ratio was 0.78 or $78 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month. The senior director of SEMI remarked that "current three-month average bookings are at a level observed in late 2003. Given the 300-mm investment and ramp underway worldwide, the expectation remains for a much more moderated equipment cycle in 2005 compared to the 2001/2002 time frame."
Aftertax corporate profits as a percentage of GDP equated to 7.92% in 2004. The last time this percentage was exceeded was in 1929. With rising inflation, one can expect this percentage to drop closer to the norm, which is between 4% and 6.5%. As corporate profit margins decline, so should P/E ratios, and therefore, stock prices. Just be patient. They don't ring a bell.
China's central bank raised the interest rate on mortgages and encouraged down payments equal to 30% of the purchase price, instead of 20%. China's real estate prices rose close to 11% in the fourth quarter of last year.
The Senate voted to eliminate all Medicaid cuts from the proposed 2006 fiscal budget.
Health care costs amount to $1,400 per vehicle at GM and at least $1,000 per vehicle at Ford.
In a new study by the UCLA Anderson Forecast team, it was revealed that half of the private-sector jobs created in California in the last two years are connected in some way to real estate. Meanwhile, property values in the last four years have swelled $1.7 trillion, the equivalent of about 35% of the total personal income in the state since 2001. California had better pray the real estate bubble does not burst. Incredibly, there are 423,000 licensed real estate agents and brokers in the state now, up 25% from 2003. The number represents 2% of all working-age Californians.
The Philly Fed Index fell to a 20-month low of 11.4 in March from 23.9 in February. Economists were expecting 19.9.
The Dallas Morning News reported that $640 billion has been cashed out from homes. That's one active ATM.
During the six-month span through February, the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators decreased 0.1%.
Total public debt in the U.S. in 1984 was just short of $1.7 trillion. Currently, it is $7.7 trillion. If this 20-year growth rate were for a high-tech company, the P/E ratio would probably be off the charts.
Section 13301 of the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990 (The Fritz Hollings Amendment) prohibits commingly Social Security funds with general revenue funds.
Last month's U.S. import prices rose 6.1% year-over-year with oil import prices up 0.8%. Meanwhile, our export prices were flat. That doesn't make for good news on company margins.
Yesterday, gas prices at the pump reached a new all-time high with a national average of $2.055 a gallon.
Last year, China's imports of crude grew by 34.8% over the year ago period. They get 50% of their crude supplies from the Middle East, while the U.S. gets but 10%.
Due to a deceleration of wireless sales, RadioShack warned that 1st quarter earnings would be 30-34 cents and not 39-41. In addition, they stated full year results would trail previous estimates.
Oracle raised their offer for Retek to $11.25, and topped SAP's $11 bid. Multiple offers and bidding wars remind me of the real estate market in the Bay Area and Malibu.
According to SEMI, the February 2005 Book-To-Bill Report Ratio was 0.78 or $78 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month. The senior director of SEMI remarked that "current three-month average bookings are at a level observed in late 2003. Given the 300-mm investment and ramp underway worldwide, the expectation remains for a much more moderated equipment cycle in 2005 compared to the 2001/2002 time frame."
Aftertax corporate profits as a percentage of GDP equated to 7.92% in 2004. The last time this percentage was exceeded was in 1929. With rising inflation, one can expect this percentage to drop closer to the norm, which is between 4% and 6.5%. As corporate profit margins decline, so should P/E ratios, and therefore, stock prices. Just be patient. They don't ring a bell.
China's central bank raised the interest rate on mortgages and encouraged down payments equal to 30% of the purchase price, instead of 20%. China's real estate prices rose close to 11% in the fourth quarter of last year.
The Senate voted to eliminate all Medicaid cuts from the proposed 2006 fiscal budget.
Health care costs amount to $1,400 per vehicle at GM and at least $1,000 per vehicle at Ford.
In a new study by the UCLA Anderson Forecast team, it was revealed that half of the private-sector jobs created in California in the last two years are connected in some way to real estate. Meanwhile, property values in the last four years have swelled $1.7 trillion, the equivalent of about 35% of the total personal income in the state since 2001. California had better pray the real estate bubble does not burst. Incredibly, there are 423,000 licensed real estate agents and brokers in the state now, up 25% from 2003. The number represents 2% of all working-age Californians.
The Philly Fed Index fell to a 20-month low of 11.4 in March from 23.9 in February. Economists were expecting 19.9.
The Dallas Morning News reported that $640 billion has been cashed out from homes. That's one active ATM.
During the six-month span through February, the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators decreased 0.1%.
Total public debt in the U.S. in 1984 was just short of $1.7 trillion. Currently, it is $7.7 trillion. If this 20-year growth rate were for a high-tech company, the P/E ratio would probably be off the charts.
Section 13301 of the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990 (The Fritz Hollings Amendment) prohibits commingly Social Security funds with general revenue funds.
Thursday, March 17, 2005
3/17/05 More Yesterdays Today And Tomorrow
As a former boxer, I don't believe in hitting anyone when down. I go to a neutral corner; however, it's difficult to stand and watch the miserable analysis job Wall Street has put forth on GM. How could the Street have been surprised by GM's revised outlook? Are these high-priced idiots brain dead? High costs, lower sales, lower production, higher inventory are not new. GM's auto operations will produce at least $2 billion of red cash flow in 2005 and that is before factoring in onetime expenses, such as what it is spending to restructure its money-losing European business or to close the Lansing plant that used to make Malibus and the last Oldsmobiles. Look at Europe. New car sales in Europe had their worst February in a decade. GM's market share in the U.S. is down to 24%. Health care costs amounted to over $5 billion for 1.1 million people in 2004. They're killing GM--- along with outdated models and management. Toyota is killing them just like Dell has been killing the other PC makers. Sales in China have been offsetting much of the weakness in the U.S. for GM. Unfortunately, car sales ahve been slowing in China for the past three quarters. It's no surprise that GM stock hit a 10-year low yesterday. GM's revised forecast for 2005 was too optimistic. GM will be in the read in 2005. There will be more yesterdays for today and tomorrow for GM. There will be more production cutbacks, more model cuts, and more layoffs. They might think about eliminating the dividend and closing down Saturn. They might consider splitting up the company. GM, as it stands today, will not stand tomorrow. Toyota will see to that.
Crude topped $57 a barrel for the first time. When will gas become $3 a gallon at the pump?
Serono identified 80 genes involved in Multiple Sclerosis using Affymetrix 100K SNP Arrays.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped to 6% this week.
The median price for a Bay Area home was $549,000, a new record. That was up 2.8% from January, and up 20.1% from $457,000 for February 2004.
Neiman Marcus will explore alternatives, and one of them will not be lowering prices.
According to a recent survey sponsored by Wells Fargo, more than 50% of small business owners still do not provide health care for their employees. Of those, 22% also do not have personal health insurance. With the number of U.S. small businesses estimated at more than 20 million, this means that approximately 3 million business owners are not covered for major medical emergencies. It should be noted that 23% of small business owners have curtailed hiring and 27% have cutback on non-capital investments due to rising health care costs. GM is not alone with health care cost problems.
Yesterday was a poor day for employment. Bell South will cut 214 jobs. Springs Mills will close 2 South Carolina textile plants and cut 700 jobs. Eastman Kodak will close a Rochester paper mill and transfer work to Germany with 100 jobs being lost. Celestica will close a Salem, NH plant and 420 employees will lose their jobs. Cincinnati Fiberglass will cut 247 jobs. Last but not least, Washington Governor Gregoire's proposed budget would cut 1,000 mid-management jobs.
Qwest's new stock and cash bid for MCI approximates $26 a share. KKR and others are looking to buy Toys R Us for about $5.7 billion.
Spring will arrive in a matter of days. With heating oil at $1.59 a gallon, Spring can't come too soon.
For all of you at McSorley's in NYC, I wish you a happy St. Patrick's. Enjoy the green beer.
As a former boxer, I don't believe in hitting anyone when down. I go to a neutral corner; however, it's difficult to stand and watch the miserable analysis job Wall Street has put forth on GM. How could the Street have been surprised by GM's revised outlook? Are these high-priced idiots brain dead? High costs, lower sales, lower production, higher inventory are not new. GM's auto operations will produce at least $2 billion of red cash flow in 2005 and that is before factoring in onetime expenses, such as what it is spending to restructure its money-losing European business or to close the Lansing plant that used to make Malibus and the last Oldsmobiles. Look at Europe. New car sales in Europe had their worst February in a decade. GM's market share in the U.S. is down to 24%. Health care costs amounted to over $5 billion for 1.1 million people in 2004. They're killing GM--- along with outdated models and management. Toyota is killing them just like Dell has been killing the other PC makers. Sales in China have been offsetting much of the weakness in the U.S. for GM. Unfortunately, car sales ahve been slowing in China for the past three quarters. It's no surprise that GM stock hit a 10-year low yesterday. GM's revised forecast for 2005 was too optimistic. GM will be in the read in 2005. There will be more yesterdays for today and tomorrow for GM. There will be more production cutbacks, more model cuts, and more layoffs. They might think about eliminating the dividend and closing down Saturn. They might consider splitting up the company. GM, as it stands today, will not stand tomorrow. Toyota will see to that.
Crude topped $57 a barrel for the first time. When will gas become $3 a gallon at the pump?
Serono identified 80 genes involved in Multiple Sclerosis using Affymetrix 100K SNP Arrays.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped to 6% this week.
The median price for a Bay Area home was $549,000, a new record. That was up 2.8% from January, and up 20.1% from $457,000 for February 2004.
Neiman Marcus will explore alternatives, and one of them will not be lowering prices.
According to a recent survey sponsored by Wells Fargo, more than 50% of small business owners still do not provide health care for their employees. Of those, 22% also do not have personal health insurance. With the number of U.S. small businesses estimated at more than 20 million, this means that approximately 3 million business owners are not covered for major medical emergencies. It should be noted that 23% of small business owners have curtailed hiring and 27% have cutback on non-capital investments due to rising health care costs. GM is not alone with health care cost problems.
Yesterday was a poor day for employment. Bell South will cut 214 jobs. Springs Mills will close 2 South Carolina textile plants and cut 700 jobs. Eastman Kodak will close a Rochester paper mill and transfer work to Germany with 100 jobs being lost. Celestica will close a Salem, NH plant and 420 employees will lose their jobs. Cincinnati Fiberglass will cut 247 jobs. Last but not least, Washington Governor Gregoire's proposed budget would cut 1,000 mid-management jobs.
Qwest's new stock and cash bid for MCI approximates $26 a share. KKR and others are looking to buy Toys R Us for about $5.7 billion.
Spring will arrive in a matter of days. With heating oil at $1.59 a gallon, Spring can't come too soon.
For all of you at McSorley's in NYC, I wish you a happy St. Patrick's. Enjoy the green beer.
More Yesterdays Today And Tomorrow
3/17/05 More Yesterdays Today And Tomorrow
As a former boxer, I don't believe in hitting anyone when down. I go to a neutral corner; however, it's difficult to stand and watch the miserable analysis job Wall Street has put forth on GM. How could the Street have been surprised by GM's revised outlook? Are these high-priced idiots brain dead? High costs, lower sales, lower production, higher inventory are not new. GM's auto operations will produce at least $2 billion of red cash flow in 2005 and that is before factoring in onetime expenses, such as what it is spending to restructure its money-losing European business or to close the Lansing plant that used to make Malibus and the last Oldsmobiles. Look at Europe. New car sales in Europe had their worst February in a decade. GM's market share in the U.S. is down to 24%. Health care costs amounted to over $5 billion for 1.1 million people in 2004. They're killing GM--- along with outdated models and management. Toyota is killing them just like Dell has been killing the other PC makers. Sales in China have been offsetting much of the weakness in the U.S. for GM. Unfortunately, car sales ahve been slowing in China for the past three quarters. It's no surprise that GM stock hit a 10-year low yesterday. GM's revised forecast for 2005 was too optimistic. GM will be in the read in 2005. There will be more yesterdays for today and tomorrow for GM. There will be more production cutbacks, more model cuts, and more layoffs. They might think about eliminating the dividend and closing down Saturn. They might consider splitting up the company. GM, as it stands today, will not stand tomorrow. Toyota will see to that.
Crude topped $57 a barrel for the first time. When will gas become $3 a gallon at the pump?
Serono identified 80 genes involved in Multiple Sclerosis using Affymetrix 100K SNP Arrays.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped to 6% this week.
The median price for a Bay Area home was $549,000, a new record. That was up 2.8% from January, and up 20.1% from $457,000 for February 2004.
Neiman Marcus will explore alternatives, and one of them will not be lowering prices.
According to a recent survey sponsored by Wells Fargo, more than 50% of small business owners still do not provide health care for their employees. Of those, 22% also do not have personal health insurance. With the number of U.S. small businesses estimated at more than 20 million, this means that approximately 3 million business owners are not covered for major medical emergencies. It should be noted that 23% of small business owners have curtailed hiring and 27% have cutback on non-capital investments due to rising health care costs. GM is not alone with health care cost problems.
Yesterday was a poor day for employment. Bell South will cut 214 jobs. Springs Mills will close 2 South Carolina textile plants and cut 700 jobs. Eastman Kodak will close a Rochester paper mill and transfer work to Germany with 100 jobs being lost. Celestica will close a Salem, NH plant and 420 employees will lose their jobs. Cincinnati Fiberglass will cut 247 jobs. Last but not least, Washington Governor Gregoire's proposed budget would cut 1,000 mid-management jobs.
Qwest's new stock and cash bid for MCI approximates $26 a share. KKR and others are looking to buy Toys R Us for about $5.7 billion.
Spring will arrive in a matter of days. With heating oil at $1.59 a gallon, Spring can't come too soon.
For all of you at McSorley's in NYC, I wish you a happy St. Patrick's. Enjoy the green beer.
As a former boxer, I don't believe in hitting anyone when down. I go to a neutral corner; however, it's difficult to stand and watch the miserable analysis job Wall Street has put forth on GM. How could the Street have been surprised by GM's revised outlook? Are these high-priced idiots brain dead? High costs, lower sales, lower production, higher inventory are not new. GM's auto operations will produce at least $2 billion of red cash flow in 2005 and that is before factoring in onetime expenses, such as what it is spending to restructure its money-losing European business or to close the Lansing plant that used to make Malibus and the last Oldsmobiles. Look at Europe. New car sales in Europe had their worst February in a decade. GM's market share in the U.S. is down to 24%. Health care costs amounted to over $5 billion for 1.1 million people in 2004. They're killing GM--- along with outdated models and management. Toyota is killing them just like Dell has been killing the other PC makers. Sales in China have been offsetting much of the weakness in the U.S. for GM. Unfortunately, car sales ahve been slowing in China for the past three quarters. It's no surprise that GM stock hit a 10-year low yesterday. GM's revised forecast for 2005 was too optimistic. GM will be in the read in 2005. There will be more yesterdays for today and tomorrow for GM. There will be more production cutbacks, more model cuts, and more layoffs. They might think about eliminating the dividend and closing down Saturn. They might consider splitting up the company. GM, as it stands today, will not stand tomorrow. Toyota will see to that.
Crude topped $57 a barrel for the first time. When will gas become $3 a gallon at the pump?
Serono identified 80 genes involved in Multiple Sclerosis using Affymetrix 100K SNP Arrays.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped to 6% this week.
The median price for a Bay Area home was $549,000, a new record. That was up 2.8% from January, and up 20.1% from $457,000 for February 2004.
Neiman Marcus will explore alternatives, and one of them will not be lowering prices.
According to a recent survey sponsored by Wells Fargo, more than 50% of small business owners still do not provide health care for their employees. Of those, 22% also do not have personal health insurance. With the number of U.S. small businesses estimated at more than 20 million, this means that approximately 3 million business owners are not covered for major medical emergencies. It should be noted that 23% of small business owners have curtailed hiring and 27% have cutback on non-capital investments due to rising health care costs. GM is not alone with health care cost problems.
Yesterday was a poor day for employment. Bell South will cut 214 jobs. Springs Mills will close 2 South Carolina textile plants and cut 700 jobs. Eastman Kodak will close a Rochester paper mill and transfer work to Germany with 100 jobs being lost. Celestica will close a Salem, NH plant and 420 employees will lose their jobs. Cincinnati Fiberglass will cut 247 jobs. Last but not least, Washington Governor Gregoire's proposed budget would cut 1,000 mid-management jobs.
Qwest's new stock and cash bid for MCI approximates $26 a share. KKR and others are looking to buy Toys R Us for about $5.7 billion.
Spring will arrive in a matter of days. With heating oil at $1.59 a gallon, Spring can't come too soon.
For all of you at McSorley's in NYC, I wish you a happy St. Patrick's. Enjoy the green beer.
3/17/05 More Yesterdays Today And Tomorrow
As a former boxer, I don't believe in hitting anyone when down. I go to a neutral corner; however, it's difficult to stand and watch the miserable analysis job Wall Street has put forth on GM. How could the Street have been surprised by GM's revised outlook? Are these high-priced idiots brain dead? High costs, lower sales, lower production, higher inventory are not new. GM's auto operations will produce at least $2 billion of red cash flow in 2005 and that is before factoring in onetime expenses, such as what it is spending to restructure its money-losing European business or to close the Lansing plant that used to make Malibus and the last Oldsmobiles. Look at Europe. New car sales in Europe had their worst February in a decade. GM's market share in the U.S. is down to 24%. Health care costs amounted to over $5 billion for 1.1 million people in 2004. They're killing GM--- along with outdated models and management. Toyota is killing them just like Dell has been killing the other PC makers. Sales in China have been offsetting much of the weakness in the U.S. for GM. Unfortunately, car sales ahve been slowing in China for the past three quarters. It's no surprise that GM stock hit a 10-year low yesterday. GM's revised forecast for 2005 was too optimistic. GM will be in the read in 2005. There will be more yesterdays for today and tomorrow for GM. There will be more production cutbacks, more model cuts, and more layoffs. They might think about eliminating the dividend and closing down Saturn. They might consider splitting up the company. GM, as it stands today, will not stand tomorrow. Toyota will see to that.
Crude topped $57 a barrel for the first time. When will gas become $3 a gallon at the pump?
Serono identified 80 genes involved in Multiple Sclerosis using Affymetrix 100K SNP Arrays.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped to 6% this week.
The median price for a Bay Area home was $549,000, a new record. That was up 2.8% from January, and up 20.1% from $457,000 for February 2004.
Neiman Marcus will explore alternatives, and one of them will not be lowering prices.
According to a recent survey sponsored by Wells Fargo, more than 50% of small business owners still do not provide health care for their employees. Of those, 22% also do not have personal health insurance. With the number of U.S. small businesses estimated at more than 20 million, this means that approximately 3 million business owners are not covered for major medical emergencies. It should be noted that 23% of small business owners have curtailed hiring and 27% have cutback on non-capital investments due to rising health care costs. GM is not alone with health care cost problems.
Yesterday was a poor day for employment. Bell South will cut 214 jobs. Springs Mills will close 2 South Carolina textile plants and cut 700 jobs. Eastman Kodak will close a Rochester paper mill and transfer work to Germany with 100 jobs being lost. Celestica will close a Salem, NH plant and 420 employees will lose their jobs. Cincinnati Fiberglass will cut 247 jobs. Last but not least, Washington Governor Gregoire's proposed budget would cut 1,000 mid-management jobs.
Qwest's new stock and cash bid for MCI approximates $26 a share. KKR and others are looking to buy Toys R Us for about $5.7 billion.
Spring will arrive in a matter of days. With heating oil at $1.59 a gallon, Spring can't come too soon.
For all of you at McSorley's in NYC, I wish you a happy St. Patrick's. Enjoy the green beer.
As a former boxer, I don't believe in hitting anyone when down. I go to a neutral corner; however, it's difficult to stand and watch the miserable analysis job Wall Street has put forth on GM. How could the Street have been surprised by GM's revised outlook? Are these high-priced idiots brain dead? High costs, lower sales, lower production, higher inventory are not new. GM's auto operations will produce at least $2 billion of red cash flow in 2005 and that is before factoring in onetime expenses, such as what it is spending to restructure its money-losing European business or to close the Lansing plant that used to make Malibus and the last Oldsmobiles. Look at Europe. New car sales in Europe had their worst February in a decade. GM's market share in the U.S. is down to 24%. Health care costs amounted to over $5 billion for 1.1 million people in 2004. They're killing GM--- along with outdated models and management. Toyota is killing them just like Dell has been killing the other PC makers. Sales in China have been offsetting much of the weakness in the U.S. for GM. Unfortunately, car sales ahve been slowing in China for the past three quarters. It's no surprise that GM stock hit a 10-year low yesterday. GM's revised forecast for 2005 was too optimistic. GM will be in the read in 2005. There will be more yesterdays for today and tomorrow for GM. There will be more production cutbacks, more model cuts, and more layoffs. They might think about eliminating the dividend and closing down Saturn. They might consider splitting up the company. GM, as it stands today, will not stand tomorrow. Toyota will see to that.
Crude topped $57 a barrel for the first time. When will gas become $3 a gallon at the pump?
Serono identified 80 genes involved in Multiple Sclerosis using Affymetrix 100K SNP Arrays.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped to 6% this week.
The median price for a Bay Area home was $549,000, a new record. That was up 2.8% from January, and up 20.1% from $457,000 for February 2004.
Neiman Marcus will explore alternatives, and one of them will not be lowering prices.
According to a recent survey sponsored by Wells Fargo, more than 50% of small business owners still do not provide health care for their employees. Of those, 22% also do not have personal health insurance. With the number of U.S. small businesses estimated at more than 20 million, this means that approximately 3 million business owners are not covered for major medical emergencies. It should be noted that 23% of small business owners have curtailed hiring and 27% have cutback on non-capital investments due to rising health care costs. GM is not alone with health care cost problems.
Yesterday was a poor day for employment. Bell South will cut 214 jobs. Springs Mills will close 2 South Carolina textile plants and cut 700 jobs. Eastman Kodak will close a Rochester paper mill and transfer work to Germany with 100 jobs being lost. Celestica will close a Salem, NH plant and 420 employees will lose their jobs. Cincinnati Fiberglass will cut 247 jobs. Last but not least, Washington Governor Gregoire's proposed budget would cut 1,000 mid-management jobs.
Qwest's new stock and cash bid for MCI approximates $26 a share. KKR and others are looking to buy Toys R Us for about $5.7 billion.
Spring will arrive in a matter of days. With heating oil at $1.59 a gallon, Spring can't come too soon.
For all of you at McSorley's in NYC, I wish you a happy St. Patrick's. Enjoy the green beer.
More Yestsrdays Today And Tomorrow
3/17/05 More Yesterdays Today And Tomorrow
As a former boxer, I don't believe in hitting anyone when down. I go to a neutral corner; however, it's difficult to stand and watch the miserable analysis job Wall Street has put forth on GM. How could the Street have been surprised by GM's revised outlook? Are these high-priced idiots brain dead? High costs, lower sales, lower production, higher inventory are not new. GM's auto operations will produce at least $2 billion of red cash flow in 2005 and that is before factoring in onetime expenses, such as what it is spending to restructure its money-losing European business or to close the Lansing plant that used to make Malibus and the last Oldsmobiles. Look at Europe. New car sales in Europe had their worst February in a decade. GM's market share in the U.S. is down to 24%. Health care costs amounted to over $5 billion for 1.1 million people in 2004. They're killing GM--- along with outdated models and management. Toyota is killing them just like Dell has been killing the other PC makers. Sales in China have been offsetting much of the weakness in the U.S. for GM. Unfortunately, car sales ahve been slowing in China for the past three quarters. It's no surprise that GM stock hit a 10-year low yesterday. GM's revised forecast for 2005 was too optimistic. GM will be in the read in 2005. There will be more yesterdays for today and tomorrow for GM. There will be more production cutbacks, more model cuts, and more layoffs. They might think about eliminating the dividend and closing down Saturn. They might consider splitting up the company. GM, as it stands today, will not stand tomorrow. Toyota will see to that.
Crude topped $57 a barrel for the first time. When will gas become $3 a gallon at the pump?
Serono identified 80 genes involved in Multiple Sclerosis using Affymetrix 100K SNP Arrays.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped to 6% this week.
The median price for a Bay Area home was $549,000, a new record. That was up 2.8% from January, and up 20.1% from $457,000 for February 2004.
Neiman Marcus will explore alternatives, and one of them will not be lowering prices.
According to a recent survey sponsored by Wells Fargo, more than 50% of small business owners still do not provide health care for their employees. Of those, 22% also do not have personal health insurance. With the number of U.S. small businesses estimated at more than 20 million, this means that approximately 3 million business owners are not covered for major medical emergencies. It should be noted that 23% of small business owners have curtailed hiring and 27% have cutback on non-capital investments due to rising health care costs. GM is not alone with health care cost problems.
Yesterday was a poor day for employment. Bell South will cut 214 jobs. Springs Mills will close 2 South Carolina textile plants and cut 700 jobs. Eastman Kodak will close a Rochester paper mill and transfer work to Germany with 100 jobs being lost. Celestica will close a Salem, NH plant and 420 employees will lose their jobs. Cincinnati Fiberglass will cut 247 jobs. Last but not least, Washington Governor Gregoire's proposed budget would cut 1,000 mid-management jobs.
Qwest's new stock and cash bid for MCI approximates $26 a share. KKR and others are looking to buy Toys R Us for about $5.7 billion.
Spring will arrive in a matter of days. With heating oil at $1.59 a gallon, Spring can't come too soon.
For all of you at McSorley's in NYC, I wish you a happy St. Patrick's. Enjoy the green beer.
As a former boxer, I don't believe in hitting anyone when down. I go to a neutral corner; however, it's difficult to stand and watch the miserable analysis job Wall Street has put forth on GM. How could the Street have been surprised by GM's revised outlook? Are these high-priced idiots brain dead? High costs, lower sales, lower production, higher inventory are not new. GM's auto operations will produce at least $2 billion of red cash flow in 2005 and that is before factoring in onetime expenses, such as what it is spending to restructure its money-losing European business or to close the Lansing plant that used to make Malibus and the last Oldsmobiles. Look at Europe. New car sales in Europe had their worst February in a decade. GM's market share in the U.S. is down to 24%. Health care costs amounted to over $5 billion for 1.1 million people in 2004. They're killing GM--- along with outdated models and management. Toyota is killing them just like Dell has been killing the other PC makers. Sales in China have been offsetting much of the weakness in the U.S. for GM. Unfortunately, car sales ahve been slowing in China for the past three quarters. It's no surprise that GM stock hit a 10-year low yesterday. GM's revised forecast for 2005 was too optimistic. GM will be in the read in 2005. There will be more yesterdays for today and tomorrow for GM. There will be more production cutbacks, more model cuts, and more layoffs. They might think about eliminating the dividend and closing down Saturn. They might consider splitting up the company. GM, as it stands today, will not stand tomorrow. Toyota will see to that.
Crude topped $57 a barrel for the first time. When will gas become $3 a gallon at the pump?
Serono identified 80 genes involved in Multiple Sclerosis using Affymetrix 100K SNP Arrays.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped to 6% this week.
The median price for a Bay Area home was $549,000, a new record. That was up 2.8% from January, and up 20.1% from $457,000 for February 2004.
Neiman Marcus will explore alternatives, and one of them will not be lowering prices.
According to a recent survey sponsored by Wells Fargo, more than 50% of small business owners still do not provide health care for their employees. Of those, 22% also do not have personal health insurance. With the number of U.S. small businesses estimated at more than 20 million, this means that approximately 3 million business owners are not covered for major medical emergencies. It should be noted that 23% of small business owners have curtailed hiring and 27% have cutback on non-capital investments due to rising health care costs. GM is not alone with health care cost problems.
Yesterday was a poor day for employment. Bell South will cut 214 jobs. Springs Mills will close 2 South Carolina textile plants and cut 700 jobs. Eastman Kodak will close a Rochester paper mill and transfer work to Germany with 100 jobs being lost. Celestica will close a Salem, NH plant and 420 employees will lose their jobs. Cincinnati Fiberglass will cut 247 jobs. Last but not least, Washington Governor Gregoire's proposed budget would cut 1,000 mid-management jobs.
Qwest's new stock and cash bid for MCI approximates $26 a share. KKR and others are looking to buy Toys R Us for about $5.7 billion.
Spring will arrive in a matter of days. With heating oil at $1.59 a gallon, Spring can't come too soon.
For all of you at McSorley's in NYC, I wish you a happy St. Patrick's. Enjoy the green beer.
More Yestsrdays Today And Tomorrow
3/17/05 More Yesterdays Today And Tomorrow
As a former boxer, I don't believe in hitting anyone when down. I go to a neutral corner; however, it's difficult to stand and watch the miserable analysis job Wall Street has put forth on GM. How could the Street have been surprised by GM's revised outlook? Are these high-priced idiots brain dead? High costs, lower sales, lower production, higher inventory are not new. GM's auto operations will produce at least $2 billion of red cash flow in 2005 and that is before factoring in onetime expenses, such as what it is spending to restructure its money-losing European business or to close the Lansing plant that used to make Malibus and the last Oldsmobiles. Look at Europe. New car sales in Europe had their worst February in a decade. GM's market share in the U.S. is down to 24%. Health care costs amounted to over $5 billion for 1.1 million people in 2004. They're killing GM--- along with outdated models and management. Toyota is killing them just like Dell has been killing the other PC makers. Sales in China have been offsetting much of the weakness in the U.S. for GM. Unfortunately, car sales ahve been slowing in China for the past three quarters. It's no surprise that GM stock hit a 10-year low yesterday. GM's revised forecast for 2005 was too optimistic. GM will be in the read in 2005. There will be more yesterdays for today and tomorrow for GM. There will be more production cutbacks, more model cuts, and more layoffs. They might think about eliminating the dividend and closing down Saturn. They might consider splitting up the company. GM, as it stands today, will not stand tomorrow. Toyota will see to that.
Crude topped $57 a barrel for the first time. When will gas become $3 a gallon at the pump?
Serono identified 80 genes involved in Multiple Sclerosis using Affymetrix 100K SNP Arrays.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped to 6% this week.
The median price for a Bay Area home was $549,000, a new record. That was up 2.8% from January, and up 20.1% from $457,000 for February 2004.
Neiman Marcus will explore alternatives, and one of them will not be lowering prices.
According to a recent survey sponsored by Wells Fargo, more than 50% of small business owners still do not provide health care for their employees. Of those, 22% also do not have personal health insurance. With the number of U.S. small businesses estimated at more than 20 million, this means that approximately 3 million business owners are not covered for major medical emergencies. It should be noted that 23% of small business owners have curtailed hiring and 27% have cutback on non-capital investments due to rising health care costs. GM is not alone with health care cost problems.
Yesterday was a poor day for employment. Bell South will cut 214 jobs. Springs Mills will close 2 South Carolina textile plants and cut 700 jobs. Eastman Kodak will close a Rochester paper mill and transfer work to Germany with 100 jobs being lost. Celestica will close a Salem, NH plant and 420 employees will lose their jobs. Cincinnati Fiberglass will cut 247 jobs. Last but not least, Washington Governor Gregoire's proposed budget would cut 1,000 mid-management jobs.
Qwest's new stock and cash bid for MCI approximates $26 a share. KKR and others are looking to buy Toys R Us for about $5.7 billion.
Spring will arrive in a matter of days. With heating oil at $1.59 a gallon, Spring can't come too soon.
For all of you at McSorley's in NYC, I wish you a happy St. Patrick's. Enjoy the green beer.
As a former boxer, I don't believe in hitting anyone when down. I go to a neutral corner; however, it's difficult to stand and watch the miserable analysis job Wall Street has put forth on GM. How could the Street have been surprised by GM's revised outlook? Are these high-priced idiots brain dead? High costs, lower sales, lower production, higher inventory are not new. GM's auto operations will produce at least $2 billion of red cash flow in 2005 and that is before factoring in onetime expenses, such as what it is spending to restructure its money-losing European business or to close the Lansing plant that used to make Malibus and the last Oldsmobiles. Look at Europe. New car sales in Europe had their worst February in a decade. GM's market share in the U.S. is down to 24%. Health care costs amounted to over $5 billion for 1.1 million people in 2004. They're killing GM--- along with outdated models and management. Toyota is killing them just like Dell has been killing the other PC makers. Sales in China have been offsetting much of the weakness in the U.S. for GM. Unfortunately, car sales ahve been slowing in China for the past three quarters. It's no surprise that GM stock hit a 10-year low yesterday. GM's revised forecast for 2005 was too optimistic. GM will be in the read in 2005. There will be more yesterdays for today and tomorrow for GM. There will be more production cutbacks, more model cuts, and more layoffs. They might think about eliminating the dividend and closing down Saturn. They might consider splitting up the company. GM, as it stands today, will not stand tomorrow. Toyota will see to that.
Crude topped $57 a barrel for the first time. When will gas become $3 a gallon at the pump?
Serono identified 80 genes involved in Multiple Sclerosis using Affymetrix 100K SNP Arrays.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped to 6% this week.
The median price for a Bay Area home was $549,000, a new record. That was up 2.8% from January, and up 20.1% from $457,000 for February 2004.
Neiman Marcus will explore alternatives, and one of them will not be lowering prices.
According to a recent survey sponsored by Wells Fargo, more than 50% of small business owners still do not provide health care for their employees. Of those, 22% also do not have personal health insurance. With the number of U.S. small businesses estimated at more than 20 million, this means that approximately 3 million business owners are not covered for major medical emergencies. It should be noted that 23% of small business owners have curtailed hiring and 27% have cutback on non-capital investments due to rising health care costs. GM is not alone with health care cost problems.
Yesterday was a poor day for employment. Bell South will cut 214 jobs. Springs Mills will close 2 South Carolina textile plants and cut 700 jobs. Eastman Kodak will close a Rochester paper mill and transfer work to Germany with 100 jobs being lost. Celestica will close a Salem, NH plant and 420 employees will lose their jobs. Cincinnati Fiberglass will cut 247 jobs. Last but not least, Washington Governor Gregoire's proposed budget would cut 1,000 mid-management jobs.
Qwest's new stock and cash bid for MCI approximates $26 a share. KKR and others are looking to buy Toys R Us for about $5.7 billion.
Spring will arrive in a matter of days. With heating oil at $1.59 a gallon, Spring can't come too soon.
For all of you at McSorley's in NYC, I wish you a happy St. Patrick's. Enjoy the green beer.
More Yestsrdays Today And Tomorrow
3/17/05 More Yesterdays Today And Tomorrow
As a former boxer, I don't believe in hitting anyone when down. I go to a neutral corner; however, it's difficult to stand and watch the miserable analysis job Wall Street has put forth on GM. How could the Street have been surprised by GM's revised outlook? Are these high-priced idiots brain dead? High costs, lower sales, lower production, higher inventory are not new. GM's auto operations will produce at least $2 billion of red cash flow in 2005 and that is before factoring in onetime expenses, such as what it is spending to restructure its money-losing European business or to close the Lansing plant that used to make Malibus and the last Oldsmobiles. Look at Europe. New car sales in Europe had their worst February in a decade. GM's market share in the U.S. is down to 24%. Health care costs amounted to over $5 billion for 1.1 million people in 2004. They're killing GM--- along with outdated models and management. Toyota is killing them just like Dell has been killing the other PC makers. Sales in China have been offsetting much of the weakness in the U.S. for GM. Unfortunately, car sales ahve been slowing in China for the past three quarters. It's no surprise that GM stock hit a 10-year low yesterday. GM's revised forecast for 2005 was too optimistic. GM will be in the read in 2005. There will be more yesterdays for today and tomorrow for GM. There will be more production cutbacks, more model cuts, and more layoffs. They might think about eliminating the dividend and closing down Saturn. They might consider splitting up the company. GM, as it stands today, will not stand tomorrow. Toyota will see to that.
Crude topped $57 a barrel for the first time. When will gas become $3 a gallon at the pump?
Serono identified 80 genes involved in Multiple Sclerosis using Affymetrix 100K SNP Arrays.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped to 6% this week.
The median price for a Bay Area home was $549,000, a new record. That was up 2.8% from January, and up 20.1% from $457,000 for February 2004.
Neiman Marcus will explore alternatives, and one of them will not be lowering prices.
According to a recent survey sponsored by Wells Fargo, more than 50% of small business owners still do not provide health care for their employees. Of those, 22% also do not have personal health insurance. With the number of U.S. small businesses estimated at more than 20 million, this means that approximately 3 million business owners are not covered for major medical emergencies. It should be noted that 23% of small business owners have curtailed hiring and 27% have cutback on non-capital investments due to rising health care costs. GM is not alone with health care cost problems.
Yesterday was a poor day for employment. Bell South will cut 214 jobs. Springs Mills will close 2 South Carolina textile plants and cut 700 jobs. Eastman Kodak will close a Rochester paper mill and transfer work to Germany with 100 jobs being lost. Celestica will close a Salem, NH plant and 420 employees will lose their jobs. Cincinnati Fiberglass will cut 247 jobs. Last but not least, Washington Governor Gregoire's proposed budget would cut 1,000 mid-management jobs.
Qwest's new stock and cash bid for MCI approximates $26 a share. KKR and others are looking to buy Toys R Us for about $5.7 billion.
Spring will arrive in a matter of days. With heating oil at $1.59 a gallon, Spring can't come too soon.
For all of you at McSorley's in NYC, I wish you a happy St. Patrick's. Enjoy the green beer.
As a former boxer, I don't believe in hitting anyone when down. I go to a neutral corner; however, it's difficult to stand and watch the miserable analysis job Wall Street has put forth on GM. How could the Street have been surprised by GM's revised outlook? Are these high-priced idiots brain dead? High costs, lower sales, lower production, higher inventory are not new. GM's auto operations will produce at least $2 billion of red cash flow in 2005 and that is before factoring in onetime expenses, such as what it is spending to restructure its money-losing European business or to close the Lansing plant that used to make Malibus and the last Oldsmobiles. Look at Europe. New car sales in Europe had their worst February in a decade. GM's market share in the U.S. is down to 24%. Health care costs amounted to over $5 billion for 1.1 million people in 2004. They're killing GM--- along with outdated models and management. Toyota is killing them just like Dell has been killing the other PC makers. Sales in China have been offsetting much of the weakness in the U.S. for GM. Unfortunately, car sales ahve been slowing in China for the past three quarters. It's no surprise that GM stock hit a 10-year low yesterday. GM's revised forecast for 2005 was too optimistic. GM will be in the read in 2005. There will be more yesterdays for today and tomorrow for GM. There will be more production cutbacks, more model cuts, and more layoffs. They might think about eliminating the dividend and closing down Saturn. They might consider splitting up the company. GM, as it stands today, will not stand tomorrow. Toyota will see to that.
Crude topped $57 a barrel for the first time. When will gas become $3 a gallon at the pump?
Serono identified 80 genes involved in Multiple Sclerosis using Affymetrix 100K SNP Arrays.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped to 6% this week.
The median price for a Bay Area home was $549,000, a new record. That was up 2.8% from January, and up 20.1% from $457,000 for February 2004.
Neiman Marcus will explore alternatives, and one of them will not be lowering prices.
According to a recent survey sponsored by Wells Fargo, more than 50% of small business owners still do not provide health care for their employees. Of those, 22% also do not have personal health insurance. With the number of U.S. small businesses estimated at more than 20 million, this means that approximately 3 million business owners are not covered for major medical emergencies. It should be noted that 23% of small business owners have curtailed hiring and 27% have cutback on non-capital investments due to rising health care costs. GM is not alone with health care cost problems.
Yesterday was a poor day for employment. Bell South will cut 214 jobs. Springs Mills will close 2 South Carolina textile plants and cut 700 jobs. Eastman Kodak will close a Rochester paper mill and transfer work to Germany with 100 jobs being lost. Celestica will close a Salem, NH plant and 420 employees will lose their jobs. Cincinnati Fiberglass will cut 247 jobs. Last but not least, Washington Governor Gregoire's proposed budget would cut 1,000 mid-management jobs.
Qwest's new stock and cash bid for MCI approximates $26 a share. KKR and others are looking to buy Toys R Us for about $5.7 billion.
Spring will arrive in a matter of days. With heating oil at $1.59 a gallon, Spring can't come too soon.
For all of you at McSorley's in NYC, I wish you a happy St. Patrick's. Enjoy the green beer.
Tuesday, March 15, 2005
Treasury International Capital System
3/16/05 Treasury International Capital System
Analysts were quite correct in forecasting that foreign central banks increased their U.S. asset holdings only fractionally in January (the actual amount was $7.6 billion); however, that was but a part of the story. Caribbean-based hedge funds were responsible for 75% of January’s $91.5 billion increase in foreign buying of U.S. assets, the highest monthly figure since May 2003 and a sharp rise from December’s $60.7 billion.
The total Asian population is 3.6 billion people or 56% of the world’s population. They consume 20 million barrels of oil daily. By comparison, our population is 294 million and we consume more oil each day than the entire Asian population.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index reflected a new orders index that fell to 7.9 in March from 17.3 in February, while shipments fell to 21.3 from 33.3. The workweek slipped to 8.4 from 9.3. Meanwhile, the prices paid index rose to 53.2 from 48.8.
AK Steel has advised its flat-rolled carbon steel customers that a $230 per ton surcharge will be added to invoices for products shipped in April 2005, an increase of $16 from March’s surcharge of $214 per ton.
Chuck Prince, Citigroup CEO: “The possibility of a liquidity bubble around the world concerns me. A very cautionary thing is that it feels like the world is changing and traditional indices may not give a complete picture.”
Wilbur Ross: “Risk is becoming almost an ignored term in the quest for yield.”
James Crosby, CEO of HBOS, Britain’s 4th largest bank by market cap: “The difference is computers are making credit decisions, and this is the first credit cycle where that has been the case.”
Ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yields rose to 4.54%, the highest since July 2004. April crude closes at $55.05 a barrel, April heating oil at $1.55 a gallon, and April natural gas at 7.179 per BTU.
Analysts were quite correct in forecasting that foreign central banks increased their U.S. asset holdings only fractionally in January (the actual amount was $7.6 billion); however, that was but a part of the story. Caribbean-based hedge funds were responsible for 75% of January’s $91.5 billion increase in foreign buying of U.S. assets, the highest monthly figure since May 2003 and a sharp rise from December’s $60.7 billion.
The total Asian population is 3.6 billion people or 56% of the world’s population. They consume 20 million barrels of oil daily. By comparison, our population is 294 million and we consume more oil each day than the entire Asian population.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index reflected a new orders index that fell to 7.9 in March from 17.3 in February, while shipments fell to 21.3 from 33.3. The workweek slipped to 8.4 from 9.3. Meanwhile, the prices paid index rose to 53.2 from 48.8.
AK Steel has advised its flat-rolled carbon steel customers that a $230 per ton surcharge will be added to invoices for products shipped in April 2005, an increase of $16 from March’s surcharge of $214 per ton.
Chuck Prince, Citigroup CEO: “The possibility of a liquidity bubble around the world concerns me. A very cautionary thing is that it feels like the world is changing and traditional indices may not give a complete picture.”
Wilbur Ross: “Risk is becoming almost an ignored term in the quest for yield.”
James Crosby, CEO of HBOS, Britain’s 4th largest bank by market cap: “The difference is computers are making credit decisions, and this is the first credit cycle where that has been the case.”
Ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yields rose to 4.54%, the highest since July 2004. April crude closes at $55.05 a barrel, April heating oil at $1.55 a gallon, and April natural gas at 7.179 per BTU.
Treasury International Capital System
3/16/05 Treasury International Capital System
Analysts were quite correct in forecasting that foreign central banks increased their U.S. asset holdings only fractionally in January (the actual amount was $7.6 billion); however, that was but a part of the story. Caribbean-based hedge funds were responsible for 75% of January’s $91.5 billion increase in foreign buying of U.S. assets, the highest monthly figure since May 2003 and a sharp rise from December’s $60.7 billion.
The total Asian population is 3.6 billion people or 56% of the world’s population. They consume 20 million barrels of oil daily. By comparison, our population is 294 million and we consume more oil each day than the entire Asian population.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index reflected a new orders index that fell to 7.9 in March from 17.3 in February, while shipments fell to 21.3 from 33.3. The workweek slipped to 8.4 from 9.3. Meanwhile, the prices paid index rose to 53.2 from 48.8.
AK Steel has advised its flat-rolled carbon steel customers that a $230 per ton surcharge will be added to invoices for products shipped in April 2005, an increase of $16 from March’s surcharge of $214 per ton.
Chuck Prince, Citigroup CEO: “The possibility of a liquidity bubble around the world concerns me. A very cautionary thing is that it feels like the world is changing and traditional indices may not give a complete picture.”
Wilbur Ross: “Risk is becoming almost an ignored term in the quest for yield.”
James Crosby, CEO of HBOS, Britain’s 4th largest bank by market cap: “The difference is computers are making credit decisions, and this is the first credit cycle where that has been the case.”
Ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yields rose to 4.54%, the highest since July 2004. April crude closes at $55.05 a barrel, April heating oil at $1.55 a gallon, and April natural gas at 7.179 per BTU.
Analysts were quite correct in forecasting that foreign central banks increased their U.S. asset holdings only fractionally in January (the actual amount was $7.6 billion); however, that was but a part of the story. Caribbean-based hedge funds were responsible for 75% of January’s $91.5 billion increase in foreign buying of U.S. assets, the highest monthly figure since May 2003 and a sharp rise from December’s $60.7 billion.
The total Asian population is 3.6 billion people or 56% of the world’s population. They consume 20 million barrels of oil daily. By comparison, our population is 294 million and we consume more oil each day than the entire Asian population.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index reflected a new orders index that fell to 7.9 in March from 17.3 in February, while shipments fell to 21.3 from 33.3. The workweek slipped to 8.4 from 9.3. Meanwhile, the prices paid index rose to 53.2 from 48.8.
AK Steel has advised its flat-rolled carbon steel customers that a $230 per ton surcharge will be added to invoices for products shipped in April 2005, an increase of $16 from March’s surcharge of $214 per ton.
Chuck Prince, Citigroup CEO: “The possibility of a liquidity bubble around the world concerns me. A very cautionary thing is that it feels like the world is changing and traditional indices may not give a complete picture.”
Wilbur Ross: “Risk is becoming almost an ignored term in the quest for yield.”
James Crosby, CEO of HBOS, Britain’s 4th largest bank by market cap: “The difference is computers are making credit decisions, and this is the first credit cycle where that has been the case.”
Ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yields rose to 4.54%, the highest since July 2004. April crude closes at $55.05 a barrel, April heating oil at $1.55 a gallon, and April natural gas at 7.179 per BTU.
Treasury International Capital System
3/16/05 Treasury International Capital System
Analysts were quite correct in forecasting that foreign central banks increased their U.S. asset holdings only fractionally in January (the actual amount was $7.6 billion); however, that was but a part of the story. Caribbean-based hedge funds were responsible for 75% of January’s $91.5 billion increase in foreign buying of U.S. assets, the highest monthly figure since May 2003 and a sharp rise from December’s $60.7 billion.
The total Asian population is 3.6 billion people or 56% of the world’s population. They consume 20 million barrels of oil daily. By comparison, our population is 294 million and we consume more oil each day than the entire Asian population.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index reflected a new orders index that fell to 7.9 in March from 17.3 in February, while shipments fell to 21.3 from 33.3. The workweek slipped to 8.4 from 9.3. Meanwhile, the prices paid index rose to 53.2 from 48.8.
AK Steel has advised its flat-rolled carbon steel customers that a $230 per ton surcharge will be added to invoices for products shipped in April 2005, an increase of $16 from March’s surcharge of $214 per ton.
Chuck Prince, Citigroup CEO: “The possibility of a liquidity bubble around the world concerns me. A very cautionary thing is that it feels like the world is changing and traditional indices may not give a complete picture.”
Wilbur Ross: “Risk is becoming almost an ignored term in the quest for yield.”
James Crosby, CEO of HBOS, Britain’s 4th largest bank by market cap: “The difference is computers are making credit decisions, and this is the first credit cycle where that has been the case.”
Ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yields rose to 4.54%, the highest since July 2004. April crude closes at $55.05 a barrel, April heating oil at $1.55 a gallon, and April natural gas at 7.179 per BTU.
Analysts were quite correct in forecasting that foreign central banks increased their U.S. asset holdings only fractionally in January (the actual amount was $7.6 billion); however, that was but a part of the story. Caribbean-based hedge funds were responsible for 75% of January’s $91.5 billion increase in foreign buying of U.S. assets, the highest monthly figure since May 2003 and a sharp rise from December’s $60.7 billion.
The total Asian population is 3.6 billion people or 56% of the world’s population. They consume 20 million barrels of oil daily. By comparison, our population is 294 million and we consume more oil each day than the entire Asian population.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index reflected a new orders index that fell to 7.9 in March from 17.3 in February, while shipments fell to 21.3 from 33.3. The workweek slipped to 8.4 from 9.3. Meanwhile, the prices paid index rose to 53.2 from 48.8.
AK Steel has advised its flat-rolled carbon steel customers that a $230 per ton surcharge will be added to invoices for products shipped in April 2005, an increase of $16 from March’s surcharge of $214 per ton.
Chuck Prince, Citigroup CEO: “The possibility of a liquidity bubble around the world concerns me. A very cautionary thing is that it feels like the world is changing and traditional indices may not give a complete picture.”
Wilbur Ross: “Risk is becoming almost an ignored term in the quest for yield.”
James Crosby, CEO of HBOS, Britain’s 4th largest bank by market cap: “The difference is computers are making credit decisions, and this is the first credit cycle where that has been the case.”
Ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yields rose to 4.54%, the highest since July 2004. April crude closes at $55.05 a barrel, April heating oil at $1.55 a gallon, and April natural gas at 7.179 per BTU.
'Tis The AMT Season
3/15/05 ‘Tis The AMT Season
Every year at this time I update the AMT scorecard. According to the Treasury Department, the AMT will impact 3.8 million taxpayers; however, next year the figure will jump to 20.5 million. The department forecasts that, unless Congress enacts tax legislation, by 2015, 45% of all taxpayers will be hit by the AMT. By 2013, the cancerous AMT will more revenue than the regular income tax.
Nouriel Roubini: “Capital losses will be massive when the Chinese currency, as it will eventually, is appreciated. Such losses would be today about $100 billion (or 7% of China's GDP) if the appreciation were to be 20% and would be equal to $300 b (or 20% of GDP) if the currency appreciates by 30% in 2007 (assuming a likely accumulation of reserves of $200 b per year - as in 2004 - this year and in 2006-2007). So, if China needs to have a capital loss of 20% of GDP to get 9% growth for the next three year, the cost-benefit analysis of keep on pegging is not in favor of pegging.
2. Capital losses will be massive when the Chinese currency, as it will eventually, is appreciated. Such losses would be today about $100 billion (or 7% of China's GDP) if the appreciation were to be 20% and would be equal to $300 b (or 20% of GDP) if the currency appreciates by 30% in 2007 (assuming a likely accumulation of reserves of $200 b per year - as in 2004 - this year and in 2006-2007). So, if China needs to have a capital loss of 20% of GDP to get 9% growth for the next three year, the cost-benefit analysis of keep on pegging is not in favor of pegging. The fiscal carry cost of sterilizing reserve intervention are high and increasing: China earns about 2% on its dollar reserves and pays a higher interest rate on the liabilities issued to sterilized such reserves. Between these costs and the eventual capital losses when the currency moves, China should worry about the solvency of its central bank and about the losses inflicted on the net worth of the public sector (including the value of the reserves transferred to two state owned banks in order to recap them).”
JBGLOBAL LLC asserts that China’s peg to the dollar is causing bond yields to remain near 40-year lows which in turn causes mortgage rates to remain artificially reduced. This unatural reduction in rates is fueling the U.S. housing bubble. James Berman, President of JBGLOBAL, stated “China must buy our bonds to peg its currency, in order to possess enough dollar-denominated assets to serve as a backdrop to the Yuan. This gun to their head shanghais them into buying Treasury bonds without regard to our deficits or low yields---the type of thing a normal investor would care about. The artificial buying of our bonds without regard to price causes our yields to be lower than they would be in a truly rational market.”
Genetech and Roche stated Monday that interim analysis of a late-stage clinical study of its tumor-fighting drug Avastin in combination with two other anti-cancer agents increased the survival rate of patients. Avastin is a new class of so-called anti-angiogenesis drugs that works to kill tumors by choking off their blood supply. The trial, sponsored by the National Cancer Institute, involved 878 patients.
Crude oil is trading over $55 a barrel and is approaching the high of $55.67.
Kraft raised the price on its Maxwell coffee products by 12%, matching the recent action taken by P&G.
Kraft’s Tombstone Pizza plant in Wisconsin will lay off 70 employees by the end of this month. The plant will change from operating 24 hours, six days a week to just five days a week.
China’s Premier Wen Jiabao: “Frankly speaking, many of the people who have been strongly urging the revaluation of the renminbi haven’t given much thought to the problems that would arise from there.” Wen stated that China is aiming for economic growth of 8% and inflation of 4% this year.
According to Freddie Mac, cash-out refinancings might drop 30% this year and home equity loan growth might be the next to feel the effects of rising interest rates and slower increases in home prices. The net result would be slower economic growth coupled with weaker consumer spending.
The interest in quantum computing is on the rise. Timothy Spiller, head of HP’s quantum information processing group in Bristol, England, remarked “there may be things we can do with quantum processors that we don’t even know yet.”
Jetsgo, Canada's second-biggest low-cost airline with the motto Pay A Little, Fly A Lot, collapsed on Friday, underlining the risks facing discount carriers and their passengers in an era of fierce competition and high fuel costs.
Every year at this time I update the AMT scorecard. According to the Treasury Department, the AMT will impact 3.8 million taxpayers; however, next year the figure will jump to 20.5 million. The department forecasts that, unless Congress enacts tax legislation, by 2015, 45% of all taxpayers will be hit by the AMT. By 2013, the cancerous AMT will more revenue than the regular income tax.
Nouriel Roubini: “Capital losses will be massive when the Chinese currency, as it will eventually, is appreciated. Such losses would be today about $100 billion (or 7% of China's GDP) if the appreciation were to be 20% and would be equal to $300 b (or 20% of GDP) if the currency appreciates by 30% in 2007 (assuming a likely accumulation of reserves of $200 b per year - as in 2004 - this year and in 2006-2007). So, if China needs to have a capital loss of 20% of GDP to get 9% growth for the next three year, the cost-benefit analysis of keep on pegging is not in favor of pegging.
2. Capital losses will be massive when the Chinese currency, as it will eventually, is appreciated. Such losses would be today about $100 billion (or 7% of China's GDP) if the appreciation were to be 20% and would be equal to $300 b (or 20% of GDP) if the currency appreciates by 30% in 2007 (assuming a likely accumulation of reserves of $200 b per year - as in 2004 - this year and in 2006-2007). So, if China needs to have a capital loss of 20% of GDP to get 9% growth for the next three year, the cost-benefit analysis of keep on pegging is not in favor of pegging. The fiscal carry cost of sterilizing reserve intervention are high and increasing: China earns about 2% on its dollar reserves and pays a higher interest rate on the liabilities issued to sterilized such reserves. Between these costs and the eventual capital losses when the currency moves, China should worry about the solvency of its central bank and about the losses inflicted on the net worth of the public sector (including the value of the reserves transferred to two state owned banks in order to recap them).”
JBGLOBAL LLC asserts that China’s peg to the dollar is causing bond yields to remain near 40-year lows which in turn causes mortgage rates to remain artificially reduced. This unatural reduction in rates is fueling the U.S. housing bubble. James Berman, President of JBGLOBAL, stated “China must buy our bonds to peg its currency, in order to possess enough dollar-denominated assets to serve as a backdrop to the Yuan. This gun to their head shanghais them into buying Treasury bonds without regard to our deficits or low yields---the type of thing a normal investor would care about. The artificial buying of our bonds without regard to price causes our yields to be lower than they would be in a truly rational market.”
Genetech and Roche stated Monday that interim analysis of a late-stage clinical study of its tumor-fighting drug Avastin in combination with two other anti-cancer agents increased the survival rate of patients. Avastin is a new class of so-called anti-angiogenesis drugs that works to kill tumors by choking off their blood supply. The trial, sponsored by the National Cancer Institute, involved 878 patients.
Crude oil is trading over $55 a barrel and is approaching the high of $55.67.
Kraft raised the price on its Maxwell coffee products by 12%, matching the recent action taken by P&G.
Kraft’s Tombstone Pizza plant in Wisconsin will lay off 70 employees by the end of this month. The plant will change from operating 24 hours, six days a week to just five days a week.
China’s Premier Wen Jiabao: “Frankly speaking, many of the people who have been strongly urging the revaluation of the renminbi haven’t given much thought to the problems that would arise from there.” Wen stated that China is aiming for economic growth of 8% and inflation of 4% this year.
According to Freddie Mac, cash-out refinancings might drop 30% this year and home equity loan growth might be the next to feel the effects of rising interest rates and slower increases in home prices. The net result would be slower economic growth coupled with weaker consumer spending.
The interest in quantum computing is on the rise. Timothy Spiller, head of HP’s quantum information processing group in Bristol, England, remarked “there may be things we can do with quantum processors that we don’t even know yet.”
Jetsgo, Canada's second-biggest low-cost airline with the motto Pay A Little, Fly A Lot, collapsed on Friday, underlining the risks facing discount carriers and their passengers in an era of fierce competition and high fuel costs.
'Tis The AMT Season
3/15/05 ‘Tis The AMT Season
Every year at this time I update the AMT scorecard. According to the Treasury Department, the AMT will impact 3.8 million taxpayers; however, next year the figure will jump to 20.5 million. The department forecasts that, unless Congress enacts tax legislation, by 2015, 45% of all taxpayers will be hit by the AMT. By 2013, the cancerous AMT will more revenue than the regular income tax.
Nouriel Roubini: “Capital losses will be massive when the Chinese currency, as it will eventually, is appreciated. Such losses would be today about $100 billion (or 7% of China's GDP) if the appreciation were to be 20% and would be equal to $300 b (or 20% of GDP) if the currency appreciates by 30% in 2007 (assuming a likely accumulation of reserves of $200 b per year - as in 2004 - this year and in 2006-2007). So, if China needs to have a capital loss of 20% of GDP to get 9% growth for the next three year, the cost-benefit analysis of keep on pegging is not in favor of pegging.
2. Capital losses will be massive when the Chinese currency, as it will eventually, is appreciated. Such losses would be today about $100 billion (or 7% of China's GDP) if the appreciation were to be 20% and would be equal to $300 b (or 20% of GDP) if the currency appreciates by 30% in 2007 (assuming a likely accumulation of reserves of $200 b per year - as in 2004 - this year and in 2006-2007). So, if China needs to have a capital loss of 20% of GDP to get 9% growth for the next three year, the cost-benefit analysis of keep on pegging is not in favor of pegging. The fiscal carry cost of sterilizing reserve intervention are high and increasing: China earns about 2% on its dollar reserves and pays a higher interest rate on the liabilities issued to sterilized such reserves. Between these costs and the eventual capital losses when the currency moves, China should worry about the solvency of its central bank and about the losses inflicted on the net worth of the public sector (including the value of the reserves transferred to two state owned banks in order to recap them).”
JBGLOBAL LLC asserts that China’s peg to the dollar is causing bond yields to remain near 40-year lows which in turn causes mortgage rates to remain artificially reduced. This unatural reduction in rates is fueling the U.S. housing bubble. James Berman, President of JBGLOBAL, stated “China must buy our bonds to peg its currency, in order to possess enough dollar-denominated assets to serve as a backdrop to the Yuan. This gun to their head shanghais them into buying Treasury bonds without regard to our deficits or low yields---the type of thing a normal investor would care about. The artificial buying of our bonds without regard to price causes our yields to be lower than they would be in a truly rational market.”
Genetech and Roche stated Monday that interim analysis of a late-stage clinical study of its tumor-fighting drug Avastin in combination with two other anti-cancer agents increased the survival rate of patients. Avastin is a new class of so-called anti-angiogenesis drugs that works to kill tumors by choking off their blood supply. The trial, sponsored by the National Cancer Institute, involved 878 patients.
Crude oil is trading over $55 a barrel and is approaching the high of $55.67.
Kraft raised the price on its Maxwell coffee products by 12%, matching the recent action taken by P&G.
Kraft’s Tombstone Pizza plant in Wisconsin will lay off 70 employees by the end of this month. The plant will change from operating 24 hours, six days a week to just five days a week.
China’s Premier Wen Jiabao: “Frankly speaking, many of the people who have been strongly urging the revaluation of the renminbi haven’t given much thought to the problems that would arise from there.” Wen stated that China is aiming for economic growth of 8% and inflation of 4% this year.
According to Freddie Mac, cash-out refinancings might drop 30% this year and home equity loan growth might be the next to feel the effects of rising interest rates and slower increases in home prices. The net result would be slower economic growth coupled with weaker consumer spending.
The interest in quantum computing is on the rise. Timothy Spiller, head of HP’s quantum information processing group in Bristol, England, remarked “there may be things we can do with quantum processors that we don’t even know yet.”
Jetsgo, Canada's second-biggest low-cost airline with the motto Pay A Little, Fly A Lot, collapsed on Friday, underlining the risks facing discount carriers and their passengers in an era of fierce competition and high fuel costs.
Every year at this time I update the AMT scorecard. According to the Treasury Department, the AMT will impact 3.8 million taxpayers; however, next year the figure will jump to 20.5 million. The department forecasts that, unless Congress enacts tax legislation, by 2015, 45% of all taxpayers will be hit by the AMT. By 2013, the cancerous AMT will more revenue than the regular income tax.
Nouriel Roubini: “Capital losses will be massive when the Chinese currency, as it will eventually, is appreciated. Such losses would be today about $100 billion (or 7% of China's GDP) if the appreciation were to be 20% and would be equal to $300 b (or 20% of GDP) if the currency appreciates by 30% in 2007 (assuming a likely accumulation of reserves of $200 b per year - as in 2004 - this year and in 2006-2007). So, if China needs to have a capital loss of 20% of GDP to get 9% growth for the next three year, the cost-benefit analysis of keep on pegging is not in favor of pegging.
2. Capital losses will be massive when the Chinese currency, as it will eventually, is appreciated. Such losses would be today about $100 billion (or 7% of China's GDP) if the appreciation were to be 20% and would be equal to $300 b (or 20% of GDP) if the currency appreciates by 30% in 2007 (assuming a likely accumulation of reserves of $200 b per year - as in 2004 - this year and in 2006-2007). So, if China needs to have a capital loss of 20% of GDP to get 9% growth for the next three year, the cost-benefit analysis of keep on pegging is not in favor of pegging. The fiscal carry cost of sterilizing reserve intervention are high and increasing: China earns about 2% on its dollar reserves and pays a higher interest rate on the liabilities issued to sterilized such reserves. Between these costs and the eventual capital losses when the currency moves, China should worry about the solvency of its central bank and about the losses inflicted on the net worth of the public sector (including the value of the reserves transferred to two state owned banks in order to recap them).”
JBGLOBAL LLC asserts that China’s peg to the dollar is causing bond yields to remain near 40-year lows which in turn causes mortgage rates to remain artificially reduced. This unatural reduction in rates is fueling the U.S. housing bubble. James Berman, President of JBGLOBAL, stated “China must buy our bonds to peg its currency, in order to possess enough dollar-denominated assets to serve as a backdrop to the Yuan. This gun to their head shanghais them into buying Treasury bonds without regard to our deficits or low yields---the type of thing a normal investor would care about. The artificial buying of our bonds without regard to price causes our yields to be lower than they would be in a truly rational market.”
Genetech and Roche stated Monday that interim analysis of a late-stage clinical study of its tumor-fighting drug Avastin in combination with two other anti-cancer agents increased the survival rate of patients. Avastin is a new class of so-called anti-angiogenesis drugs that works to kill tumors by choking off their blood supply. The trial, sponsored by the National Cancer Institute, involved 878 patients.
Crude oil is trading over $55 a barrel and is approaching the high of $55.67.
Kraft raised the price on its Maxwell coffee products by 12%, matching the recent action taken by P&G.
Kraft’s Tombstone Pizza plant in Wisconsin will lay off 70 employees by the end of this month. The plant will change from operating 24 hours, six days a week to just five days a week.
China’s Premier Wen Jiabao: “Frankly speaking, many of the people who have been strongly urging the revaluation of the renminbi haven’t given much thought to the problems that would arise from there.” Wen stated that China is aiming for economic growth of 8% and inflation of 4% this year.
According to Freddie Mac, cash-out refinancings might drop 30% this year and home equity loan growth might be the next to feel the effects of rising interest rates and slower increases in home prices. The net result would be slower economic growth coupled with weaker consumer spending.
The interest in quantum computing is on the rise. Timothy Spiller, head of HP’s quantum information processing group in Bristol, England, remarked “there may be things we can do with quantum processors that we don’t even know yet.”
Jetsgo, Canada's second-biggest low-cost airline with the motto Pay A Little, Fly A Lot, collapsed on Friday, underlining the risks facing discount carriers and their passengers in an era of fierce competition and high fuel costs.
'Tis The AMT Season
3/15/05 ‘Tis The AMT Season
Every year at this time I update the AMT scorecard. According to the Treasury Department, the AMT will impact 3.8 million taxpayers; however, next year the figure will jump to 20.5 million. The department forecasts that, unless Congress enacts tax legislation, by 2015, 45% of all taxpayers will be hit by the AMT. By 2013, the cancerous AMT will more revenue than the regular income tax.
Nouriel Roubini: “Capital losses will be massive when the Chinese currency, as it will eventually, is appreciated. Such losses would be today about $100 billion (or 7% of China's GDP) if the appreciation were to be 20% and would be equal to $300 b (or 20% of GDP) if the currency appreciates by 30% in 2007 (assuming a likely accumulation of reserves of $200 b per year - as in 2004 - this year and in 2006-2007). So, if China needs to have a capital loss of 20% of GDP to get 9% growth for the next three year, the cost-benefit analysis of keep on pegging is not in favor of pegging.
2. Capital losses will be massive when the Chinese currency, as it will eventually, is appreciated. Such losses would be today about $100 billion (or 7% of China's GDP) if the appreciation were to be 20% and would be equal to $300 b (or 20% of GDP) if the currency appreciates by 30% in 2007 (assuming a likely accumulation of reserves of $200 b per year - as in 2004 - this year and in 2006-2007). So, if China needs to have a capital loss of 20% of GDP to get 9% growth for the next three year, the cost-benefit analysis of keep on pegging is not in favor of pegging. The fiscal carry cost of sterilizing reserve intervention are high and increasing: China earns about 2% on its dollar reserves and pays a higher interest rate on the liabilities issued to sterilized such reserves. Between these costs and the eventual capital losses when the currency moves, China should worry about the solvency of its central bank and about the losses inflicted on the net worth of the public sector (including the value of the reserves transferred to two state owned banks in order to recap them).”
JBGLOBAL LLC asserts that China’s peg to the dollar is causing bond yields to remain near 40-year lows which in turn causes mortgage rates to remain artificially reduced. This unatural reduction in rates is fueling the U.S. housing bubble. James Berman, President of JBGLOBAL, stated “China must buy our bonds to peg its currency, in order to possess enough dollar-denominated assets to serve as a backdrop to the Yuan. This gun to their head shanghais them into buying Treasury bonds without regard to our deficits or low yields---the type of thing a normal investor would care about. The artificial buying of our bonds without regard to price causes our yields to be lower than they would be in a truly rational market.”
Genetech and Roche stated Monday that interim analysis of a late-stage clinical study of its tumor-fighting drug Avastin in combination with two other anti-cancer agents increased the survival rate of patients. Avastin is a new class of so-called anti-angiogenesis drugs that works to kill tumors by choking off their blood supply. The trial, sponsored by the National Cancer Institute, involved 878 patients.
Crude oil is trading over $55 a barrel and is approaching the high of $55.67.
Kraft raised the price on its Maxwell coffee products by 12%, matching the recent action taken by P&G.
Kraft’s Tombstone Pizza plant in Wisconsin will lay off 70 employees by the end of this month. The plant will change from operating 24 hours, six days a week to just five days a week.
China’s Premier Wen Jiabao: “Frankly speaking, many of the people who have been strongly urging the revaluation of the renminbi haven’t given much thought to the problems that would arise from there.” Wen stated that China is aiming for economic growth of 8% and inflation of 4% this year.
According to Freddie Mac, cash-out refinancings might drop 30% this year and home equity loan growth might be the next to feel the effects of rising interest rates and slower increases in home prices. The net result would be slower economic growth coupled with weaker consumer spending.
The interest in quantum computing is on the rise. Timothy Spiller, head of HP’s quantum information processing group in Bristol, England, remarked “there may be things we can do with quantum processors that we don’t even know yet.”
Jetsgo, Canada's second-biggest low-cost airline with the motto Pay A Little, Fly A Lot, collapsed on Friday, underlining the risks facing discount carriers and their passengers in an era of fierce competition and high fuel costs.
Every year at this time I update the AMT scorecard. According to the Treasury Department, the AMT will impact 3.8 million taxpayers; however, next year the figure will jump to 20.5 million. The department forecasts that, unless Congress enacts tax legislation, by 2015, 45% of all taxpayers will be hit by the AMT. By 2013, the cancerous AMT will more revenue than the regular income tax.
Nouriel Roubini: “Capital losses will be massive when the Chinese currency, as it will eventually, is appreciated. Such losses would be today about $100 billion (or 7% of China's GDP) if the appreciation were to be 20% and would be equal to $300 b (or 20% of GDP) if the currency appreciates by 30% in 2007 (assuming a likely accumulation of reserves of $200 b per year - as in 2004 - this year and in 2006-2007). So, if China needs to have a capital loss of 20% of GDP to get 9% growth for the next three year, the cost-benefit analysis of keep on pegging is not in favor of pegging.
2. Capital losses will be massive when the Chinese currency, as it will eventually, is appreciated. Such losses would be today about $100 billion (or 7% of China's GDP) if the appreciation were to be 20% and would be equal to $300 b (or 20% of GDP) if the currency appreciates by 30% in 2007 (assuming a likely accumulation of reserves of $200 b per year - as in 2004 - this year and in 2006-2007). So, if China needs to have a capital loss of 20% of GDP to get 9% growth for the next three year, the cost-benefit analysis of keep on pegging is not in favor of pegging. The fiscal carry cost of sterilizing reserve intervention are high and increasing: China earns about 2% on its dollar reserves and pays a higher interest rate on the liabilities issued to sterilized such reserves. Between these costs and the eventual capital losses when the currency moves, China should worry about the solvency of its central bank and about the losses inflicted on the net worth of the public sector (including the value of the reserves transferred to two state owned banks in order to recap them).”
JBGLOBAL LLC asserts that China’s peg to the dollar is causing bond yields to remain near 40-year lows which in turn causes mortgage rates to remain artificially reduced. This unatural reduction in rates is fueling the U.S. housing bubble. James Berman, President of JBGLOBAL, stated “China must buy our bonds to peg its currency, in order to possess enough dollar-denominated assets to serve as a backdrop to the Yuan. This gun to their head shanghais them into buying Treasury bonds without regard to our deficits or low yields---the type of thing a normal investor would care about. The artificial buying of our bonds without regard to price causes our yields to be lower than they would be in a truly rational market.”
Genetech and Roche stated Monday that interim analysis of a late-stage clinical study of its tumor-fighting drug Avastin in combination with two other anti-cancer agents increased the survival rate of patients. Avastin is a new class of so-called anti-angiogenesis drugs that works to kill tumors by choking off their blood supply. The trial, sponsored by the National Cancer Institute, involved 878 patients.
Crude oil is trading over $55 a barrel and is approaching the high of $55.67.
Kraft raised the price on its Maxwell coffee products by 12%, matching the recent action taken by P&G.
Kraft’s Tombstone Pizza plant in Wisconsin will lay off 70 employees by the end of this month. The plant will change from operating 24 hours, six days a week to just five days a week.
China’s Premier Wen Jiabao: “Frankly speaking, many of the people who have been strongly urging the revaluation of the renminbi haven’t given much thought to the problems that would arise from there.” Wen stated that China is aiming for economic growth of 8% and inflation of 4% this year.
According to Freddie Mac, cash-out refinancings might drop 30% this year and home equity loan growth might be the next to feel the effects of rising interest rates and slower increases in home prices. The net result would be slower economic growth coupled with weaker consumer spending.
The interest in quantum computing is on the rise. Timothy Spiller, head of HP’s quantum information processing group in Bristol, England, remarked “there may be things we can do with quantum processors that we don’t even know yet.”
Jetsgo, Canada's second-biggest low-cost airline with the motto Pay A Little, Fly A Lot, collapsed on Friday, underlining the risks facing discount carriers and their passengers in an era of fierce competition and high fuel costs.
'Tis The AMT Season
3/15/05 Tis The AMT Season
Every year at this time I update the AMT scorecard. According to the Treasury Department, the AMT will impact 3.8 million taxpayers; however, next year the figure will jump to 20.5 million. The department forecasts that, unless Congress enacts tax legislation, by 2015, 45% of all taxpayers will be hit by the AMT. By 2013, the cancerous AMT will more revenue than the regular income tax.
Nouriel Roubini: “Capital losses will be massive when the Chinese currency, as it will eventually, is appreciated. Such losses would be today about $100 billion (or 7% of China's GDP) if the appreciation were to be 20% and would be equal to $300 b (or 20% of GDP) if the currency appreciates by 30% in 2007 (assuming a likely accumulation of reserves of $200 b per year - as in 2004 - this year and in 2006-2007). So, if China needs to have a capital loss of 20% of GDP to get 9% growth for the next three year, the cost-benefit analysis of keep on pegging is not in favor of pegging.
2. Capital losses will be massive when the Chinese currency, as it will eventually, is appreciated. Such losses would be today about $100 billion (or 7% of China's GDP) if the appreciation were to be 20% and would be equal to $300 b (or 20% of GDP) if the currency appreciates by 30% in 2007 (assuming a likely accumulation of reserves of $200 b per year - as in 2004 - this year and in 2006-2007). So, if China needs to have a capital loss of 20% of GDP to get 9% growth for the next three year, the cost-benefit analysis of keep on pegging is not in favor of pegging. The fiscal carry cost of sterilizing reserve intervention are high and increasing: China earns about 2% on its dollar reserves and pays a higher interest rate on the liabilities issued to sterilized such reserves. Between these costs and the eventual capital losses when the currency moves, China should worry about the solvency of its central bank and about the losses inflicted on the net worth of the public sector (including the value of the reserves transferred to two state owned banks in order to recap them).”
JBGLOBAL LLC asserts that China’s peg to the dollar is causing bond yields to remain near 40-year lows which in turn causes mortgage rates to remain artificially reduced. This unatural reduction in rates is fueling the U.S. housing bubble. James Berman, President of JBGLOBAL, stated “China must buy our bonds to peg its currency, in order to possess enough dollar-denominated assets to serve as a backdrop to the Yuan. This gun to their head shanghais them into buying Treasury bonds without regard to our deficits or low yields---the type of thing a normal investor would care about. The artificial buying of our bonds without regard to price causes our yields to be lower than they would be in a truly rational market.”
Genetech and Roche stated Monday that interim analysis of a late-stage clinical study of its tumor-fighting drug Avastin in combination with two other anti-cancer agents increased the survival rate of patients. Avastin is a new class of so-called anti-angiogenesis drugs that works to kill tumors by choking off their blood supply. The trial, sponsored by the National Cancer Institute, involved 878 patients.
Crude oil is trading over $55 a barrel and is approaching the high of $55.67.
Kraft raised the price on its Maxwell coffee products by 12%, matching the recent action taken by P&G.
Kraft’s Tombstone Pizza plant in Wisconsin will lay off 70 employees by the end of this month. The plant will change from operating 24 hours, six days a week to just five days a week.
China’s Premier Wen Jiabao: “Frankly speaking, many of the people who have been strongly urging the revaluation of the renminbi haven’t given much thought to the problems that would arise from there.” Wen stated that China is aiming for economic growth of 8% and inflation of 4% this year.
According to Freddie Mac, cash-out refinancings might drop 30% this year and home equity loan growth might be the next to feel the effects of rising interest rates and slower increases in home prices. The net result would be slower economic growth coupled with weaker consumer spending.
The interest in quantum computing is on the rise. Timothy Spiller, head of HP’s quantum information processing group in Bristol, England, remarked “there may be things we can do with quantum processors that we don’t even know yet.”
Jetsgo, Canada's second-biggest low-cost airline with the motto Pay A Little, Fly A Lot, collapsed on Friday, underlining the risks facing discount carriers and their passengers in an era of fierce competition and high fuel costs.
Every year at this time I update the AMT scorecard. According to the Treasury Department, the AMT will impact 3.8 million taxpayers; however, next year the figure will jump to 20.5 million. The department forecasts that, unless Congress enacts tax legislation, by 2015, 45% of all taxpayers will be hit by the AMT. By 2013, the cancerous AMT will more revenue than the regular income tax.
Nouriel Roubini: “Capital losses will be massive when the Chinese currency, as it will eventually, is appreciated. Such losses would be today about $100 billion (or 7% of China's GDP) if the appreciation were to be 20% and would be equal to $300 b (or 20% of GDP) if the currency appreciates by 30% in 2007 (assuming a likely accumulation of reserves of $200 b per year - as in 2004 - this year and in 2006-2007). So, if China needs to have a capital loss of 20% of GDP to get 9% growth for the next three year, the cost-benefit analysis of keep on pegging is not in favor of pegging.
2. Capital losses will be massive when the Chinese currency, as it will eventually, is appreciated. Such losses would be today about $100 billion (or 7% of China's GDP) if the appreciation were to be 20% and would be equal to $300 b (or 20% of GDP) if the currency appreciates by 30% in 2007 (assuming a likely accumulation of reserves of $200 b per year - as in 2004 - this year and in 2006-2007). So, if China needs to have a capital loss of 20% of GDP to get 9% growth for the next three year, the cost-benefit analysis of keep on pegging is not in favor of pegging. The fiscal carry cost of sterilizing reserve intervention are high and increasing: China earns about 2% on its dollar reserves and pays a higher interest rate on the liabilities issued to sterilized such reserves. Between these costs and the eventual capital losses when the currency moves, China should worry about the solvency of its central bank and about the losses inflicted on the net worth of the public sector (including the value of the reserves transferred to two state owned banks in order to recap them).”
JBGLOBAL LLC asserts that China’s peg to the dollar is causing bond yields to remain near 40-year lows which in turn causes mortgage rates to remain artificially reduced. This unatural reduction in rates is fueling the U.S. housing bubble. James Berman, President of JBGLOBAL, stated “China must buy our bonds to peg its currency, in order to possess enough dollar-denominated assets to serve as a backdrop to the Yuan. This gun to their head shanghais them into buying Treasury bonds without regard to our deficits or low yields---the type of thing a normal investor would care about. The artificial buying of our bonds without regard to price causes our yields to be lower than they would be in a truly rational market.”
Genetech and Roche stated Monday that interim analysis of a late-stage clinical study of its tumor-fighting drug Avastin in combination with two other anti-cancer agents increased the survival rate of patients. Avastin is a new class of so-called anti-angiogenesis drugs that works to kill tumors by choking off their blood supply. The trial, sponsored by the National Cancer Institute, involved 878 patients.
Crude oil is trading over $55 a barrel and is approaching the high of $55.67.
Kraft raised the price on its Maxwell coffee products by 12%, matching the recent action taken by P&G.
Kraft’s Tombstone Pizza plant in Wisconsin will lay off 70 employees by the end of this month. The plant will change from operating 24 hours, six days a week to just five days a week.
China’s Premier Wen Jiabao: “Frankly speaking, many of the people who have been strongly urging the revaluation of the renminbi haven’t given much thought to the problems that would arise from there.” Wen stated that China is aiming for economic growth of 8% and inflation of 4% this year.
According to Freddie Mac, cash-out refinancings might drop 30% this year and home equity loan growth might be the next to feel the effects of rising interest rates and slower increases in home prices. The net result would be slower economic growth coupled with weaker consumer spending.
The interest in quantum computing is on the rise. Timothy Spiller, head of HP’s quantum information processing group in Bristol, England, remarked “there may be things we can do with quantum processors that we don’t even know yet.”
Jetsgo, Canada's second-biggest low-cost airline with the motto Pay A Little, Fly A Lot, collapsed on Friday, underlining the risks facing discount carriers and their passengers in an era of fierce competition and high fuel costs.
Monday, March 14, 2005
Consumption and Deficits
3/14/05 Consumption and Deficits
Robert J. Samuelson, Newsweek Contributing Editor: “For 15 years the American economy has been the engine of the world economy through ever-increasing trade and current account deficits. Other countries’ economies benefit from sending their goods to eager American buyers, and the U.S. in turn sends massive amounts of dollars abroad to pay for those goods. But there are more dollars than foreigners want to hold. The world economy can’t get along without our massive trade deficits--- and perhaps can't get along with them, either. Americans' consumption binge is propping up global trade and employment, but it is also threatening a financial upheaval that could hurt global trader and employment. America’s huge and expanding trade deficits have served as a narcotic for the rest of the world. As with all narcotics, resulting highs have been artificial and, to some extent, delusional to both the dealer and the addicts. The question now is whether everyone can go straight , before the addiction becomes self-destructive.”
UK’s raw material costs rose 10.7% in February, the biggest increase since April 1995, and higher than January’s 9.7% rise, according to the National Statistics Office in London. The increase was mainly fueled by rising crude and food prices. It sounds similar to the events occurring in the U.S. We can look forward to an accelerating CPI and higher output prices. The end result is higher inflation and rising bond yields. This creates a disappointing recipe for equity returns.
Alex Wallenwein: “The total U.S. money supply (M3) circulating domestically is about $9.5 trillion. Of those, only $697 billion are in physical cash currency.”
According to a published report, Italian oil company Eni SpA maybe interested in bidding for Unocal.
Philip Morris offered $5.1 billion to buy PT HM Sampoerna, a large Indonesian clove-cigarette maker.
IBM is buying Ascential, a maker of data integration software, for $1.1 billion.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D: “When investors confuse speculative gains with ‘investment returns’ (as they seem to be doing at present) they leave themselves vulnerable to major losses when valuations normalize.”
Over the last two fiscal years, Microsoft has expended about $12 billion on R&D. The greatest percentage of the budget has been focused on security issues, and secondarily, on voice recognition. Presently, there is a heightened effort on making strategic acquisitions. One would hope that approximately $500 million a month, or almost 42% of free monthly cash flow, would result in a better monetary return without having to turn to acquisitions as has been the case with IBM for the past five years or so.
Researchandmarkets.com reported on a survey of 50+ Americans market for medical tests and exams. The results were the mean number of hospital visits in the past year by the participants in the sample was 5.48 with a median of 4 visits with visits highest by those over 75 but otherwise age level did not make a pronounced impact. Doctors’ visits were highest among the lowest income group, and those on the political left seem to go to the doctor more than those on the political right.
Robert J. Samuelson, Newsweek Contributing Editor: “For 15 years the American economy has been the engine of the world economy through ever-increasing trade and current account deficits. Other countries’ economies benefit from sending their goods to eager American buyers, and the U.S. in turn sends massive amounts of dollars abroad to pay for those goods. But there are more dollars than foreigners want to hold. The world economy can’t get along without our massive trade deficits--- and perhaps can't get along with them, either. Americans' consumption binge is propping up global trade and employment, but it is also threatening a financial upheaval that could hurt global trader and employment. America’s huge and expanding trade deficits have served as a narcotic for the rest of the world. As with all narcotics, resulting highs have been artificial and, to some extent, delusional to both the dealer and the addicts. The question now is whether everyone can go straight , before the addiction becomes self-destructive.”
UK’s raw material costs rose 10.7% in February, the biggest increase since April 1995, and higher than January’s 9.7% rise, according to the National Statistics Office in London. The increase was mainly fueled by rising crude and food prices. It sounds similar to the events occurring in the U.S. We can look forward to an accelerating CPI and higher output prices. The end result is higher inflation and rising bond yields. This creates a disappointing recipe for equity returns.
Alex Wallenwein: “The total U.S. money supply (M3) circulating domestically is about $9.5 trillion. Of those, only $697 billion are in physical cash currency.”
According to a published report, Italian oil company Eni SpA maybe interested in bidding for Unocal.
Philip Morris offered $5.1 billion to buy PT HM Sampoerna, a large Indonesian clove-cigarette maker.
IBM is buying Ascential, a maker of data integration software, for $1.1 billion.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D: “When investors confuse speculative gains with ‘investment returns’ (as they seem to be doing at present) they leave themselves vulnerable to major losses when valuations normalize.”
Over the last two fiscal years, Microsoft has expended about $12 billion on R&D. The greatest percentage of the budget has been focused on security issues, and secondarily, on voice recognition. Presently, there is a heightened effort on making strategic acquisitions. One would hope that approximately $500 million a month, or almost 42% of free monthly cash flow, would result in a better monetary return without having to turn to acquisitions as has been the case with IBM for the past five years or so.
Researchandmarkets.com reported on a survey of 50+ Americans market for medical tests and exams. The results were the mean number of hospital visits in the past year by the participants in the sample was 5.48 with a median of 4 visits with visits highest by those over 75 but otherwise age level did not make a pronounced impact. Doctors’ visits were highest among the lowest income group, and those on the political left seem to go to the doctor more than those on the political right.
Sunday, March 13, 2005
Large Layoff Notices
3/13/05 Large Layoff Notices
This past week the headlines centered on the price of oil, rising interest rates, rising commodity prices, the falling dollar, and the near-record trade deficit. There was no mention of devastating layoff notices. How is that possible? Not to worry, I’m here to bring the news.
Kin Hubbard: “You won’t skid if you stay in a rut.”
Recently, Boeing announced the sale of commercial aircraft operations in Wichita and Oklahoma to Onex. Workers were asked to sign waivers allowing release of their personnel information in order to be considered for new employment with Onex. In the meantime, 60-day notices went to 5,200 hourly and 2,900 salaried production workers in Wichita as well as an additional 1,200 workers at the Tulsa and McAlester, Okla. Plants. Onex did not commit to any specific hiring plans. Some of these 9,300 workers will be re-hired but a good number will face the unemployment lines.
Maya Lin: “To fly, we have to have reistance.”
The Murray lawnmower plant in Lawrenceburg, Tenn. will close and this will impact 1,200 hourly workers and 200 salaried workers. Production from Lawrenceburg is being transferred to Briggs and Stratton facilities. Murray filed for bankruptcy protection in November and sold most of its assets to Briggs and Stratton.
In January, U.S. Airways announced it would close its reservations center in Green Tree, PA. The airline promised that all of its 850 dislocated workers would be offered transfers to North Carolina. Now it appears that the promise will not be kept, and those jobs will be outsourced to other nations.
The U.S. eliminated apparel quotas on January 1, 2005. According to the Census Bureau, in the month of January, imports of men’s trousers rose 75% versus a year ago, and imports of women’s sleepwear and dresses rose 30% from January 2004. U.S. imports of women’s lingerie more than doubled and imports of men’s shirts nearly doubled. It will not take long for these cheaper imports to impact hundreds of thousands of U.S. apparel jobs, and many companies will be forced out of business. It has happened in several industries over the last five years. The executive director of the American Manufacturing Trade Action Coalition, Auggie Tantillo, stated “this surge of imports from China is just the tip of the iceberg. If history is any indication, Chinese imports will continue to soar until they gain a virtual monopoly of the U.S. market.”
Thomas J. Watson: “If you stand up and be counted, from time to time you may get yourself knocked down. But remember this: A man flattened by an opponent can get up again. A man flattened by conformity stays down for good.”
Despite many increases over the past year, the Fed Funds rate continues to trail the recent rate of inflation. The dollar did experience a short reprieve, but it now continues on its downward path. At the same time, the growth in global central bank holdings of U.S. Treasury and agency securities is decelerating. All the while, with a $700 billion trade deficit and a $400 billion budget gap and a puny 1% savings rate on the immediate horizon, one can expect the future news on hiring and economic growth to be disappointing. As always, there will be opportunities; however, they become scarcer and the more frequent risks will most often outweigh the rewards.
This past week the headlines centered on the price of oil, rising interest rates, rising commodity prices, the falling dollar, and the near-record trade deficit. There was no mention of devastating layoff notices. How is that possible? Not to worry, I’m here to bring the news.
Kin Hubbard: “You won’t skid if you stay in a rut.”
Recently, Boeing announced the sale of commercial aircraft operations in Wichita and Oklahoma to Onex. Workers were asked to sign waivers allowing release of their personnel information in order to be considered for new employment with Onex. In the meantime, 60-day notices went to 5,200 hourly and 2,900 salaried production workers in Wichita as well as an additional 1,200 workers at the Tulsa and McAlester, Okla. Plants. Onex did not commit to any specific hiring plans. Some of these 9,300 workers will be re-hired but a good number will face the unemployment lines.
Maya Lin: “To fly, we have to have reistance.”
The Murray lawnmower plant in Lawrenceburg, Tenn. will close and this will impact 1,200 hourly workers and 200 salaried workers. Production from Lawrenceburg is being transferred to Briggs and Stratton facilities. Murray filed for bankruptcy protection in November and sold most of its assets to Briggs and Stratton.
In January, U.S. Airways announced it would close its reservations center in Green Tree, PA. The airline promised that all of its 850 dislocated workers would be offered transfers to North Carolina. Now it appears that the promise will not be kept, and those jobs will be outsourced to other nations.
The U.S. eliminated apparel quotas on January 1, 2005. According to the Census Bureau, in the month of January, imports of men’s trousers rose 75% versus a year ago, and imports of women’s sleepwear and dresses rose 30% from January 2004. U.S. imports of women’s lingerie more than doubled and imports of men’s shirts nearly doubled. It will not take long for these cheaper imports to impact hundreds of thousands of U.S. apparel jobs, and many companies will be forced out of business. It has happened in several industries over the last five years. The executive director of the American Manufacturing Trade Action Coalition, Auggie Tantillo, stated “this surge of imports from China is just the tip of the iceberg. If history is any indication, Chinese imports will continue to soar until they gain a virtual monopoly of the U.S. market.”
Thomas J. Watson: “If you stand up and be counted, from time to time you may get yourself knocked down. But remember this: A man flattened by an opponent can get up again. A man flattened by conformity stays down for good.”
Despite many increases over the past year, the Fed Funds rate continues to trail the recent rate of inflation. The dollar did experience a short reprieve, but it now continues on its downward path. At the same time, the growth in global central bank holdings of U.S. Treasury and agency securities is decelerating. All the while, with a $700 billion trade deficit and a $400 billion budget gap and a puny 1% savings rate on the immediate horizon, one can expect the future news on hiring and economic growth to be disappointing. As always, there will be opportunities; however, they become scarcer and the more frequent risks will most often outweigh the rewards.
Large Layoof Notices
3/13/05 Large Layoff Notices
This past week the headlines centered on the price of oil, rising interest rates, rising commodity prices, the falling dollar, and the near-record trade deficit. There was no mention of devastating layoff notices. How is that possible? Not to worry, I’m here to bring the news.
Kin Hubbard: “You won’t skid if you stay in a rut.”
Recently, Boeing announced the sale of commercial aircraft operations in Wichita and Oklahoma to Onex. Workers were asked to sign waivers allowing release of their personnel information in order to be considered for new employment with Onex. In the meantime, 60-day notices went to 5,200 hourly and 2,900 salaried production workers in Wichita as well as an additional 1,200 workers at the Tulsa and McAlester, Okla. Plants. Onex did not commit to any specific hiring plans. Some of these 9,300 workers will be re-hired but a good number will face the unemployment lines.
Maya Lin: “To fly, we have to have reistance.”
The Murray lawnmower plant in Lawrenceburg, Tenn. will close and this will impact 1,200 hourly workers and 200 salaried workers. Production from Lawrenceburg is being transferred to Briggs and Stratton facilities. Murray filed for bankruptcy protection in November and sold most of its assets to Briggs and Stratton.
In January, U.S. Airways announced it would close its reservations center in Green Tree, PA. The airline promised that all of its 850 dislocated workers would be offered transfers to North Carolina. Now it appears that the promise will not be kept, and those jobs will be outsourced to other nations.
The U.S. eliminated apparel quotas on January 1, 2005. According to the Census Bureau, in the month of January, imports of men’s trousers rose 75% versus a year ago, and imports of women’s sleepwear and dresses rose 30% from January 2004. U.S. imports of women’s lingerie more than doubled and imports of men’s shirts nearly doubled. It will not take long for these cheaper imports to impact hundreds of thousands of U.S. apparel jobs, and many companies will be forced out of business. It has happened in several industries over the last five years. The executive director of the American Manufacturing Trade Action Coalition, Auggie Tantillo, stated “this surge of imports from China is just the tip of the iceberg. If history is any indication, Chinese imports will continue to soar until they gain a virtual monopoly of the U.S. market.”
Thomas J. Watson: “If you stand up and be counted, from time to time you may get yourself knocked down. But remember this: A man flattened by an opponent can get up again. A man flattened by conformity stays down for good.”
Despite many increases over the past year, the Fed Funds rate continues to trail the recent rate of inflation. The dollar did experience a short reprieve, but it now continues on its downward path. At the same time, the growth in global central bank holdings of U.S. Treasury and agency securities is decelerating. All the while, with a $700 billion trade deficit and a $400 billion budget gap and a puny 1% savings rate on the immediate horizon, one can expect the future news on hiring and economic growth to be disappointing. As always, there will be opportunities; however, they become scarcer and the more frequent risks will most often outweigh the rewards.
This past week the headlines centered on the price of oil, rising interest rates, rising commodity prices, the falling dollar, and the near-record trade deficit. There was no mention of devastating layoff notices. How is that possible? Not to worry, I’m here to bring the news.
Kin Hubbard: “You won’t skid if you stay in a rut.”
Recently, Boeing announced the sale of commercial aircraft operations in Wichita and Oklahoma to Onex. Workers were asked to sign waivers allowing release of their personnel information in order to be considered for new employment with Onex. In the meantime, 60-day notices went to 5,200 hourly and 2,900 salaried production workers in Wichita as well as an additional 1,200 workers at the Tulsa and McAlester, Okla. Plants. Onex did not commit to any specific hiring plans. Some of these 9,300 workers will be re-hired but a good number will face the unemployment lines.
Maya Lin: “To fly, we have to have reistance.”
The Murray lawnmower plant in Lawrenceburg, Tenn. will close and this will impact 1,200 hourly workers and 200 salaried workers. Production from Lawrenceburg is being transferred to Briggs and Stratton facilities. Murray filed for bankruptcy protection in November and sold most of its assets to Briggs and Stratton.
In January, U.S. Airways announced it would close its reservations center in Green Tree, PA. The airline promised that all of its 850 dislocated workers would be offered transfers to North Carolina. Now it appears that the promise will not be kept, and those jobs will be outsourced to other nations.
The U.S. eliminated apparel quotas on January 1, 2005. According to the Census Bureau, in the month of January, imports of men’s trousers rose 75% versus a year ago, and imports of women’s sleepwear and dresses rose 30% from January 2004. U.S. imports of women’s lingerie more than doubled and imports of men’s shirts nearly doubled. It will not take long for these cheaper imports to impact hundreds of thousands of U.S. apparel jobs, and many companies will be forced out of business. It has happened in several industries over the last five years. The executive director of the American Manufacturing Trade Action Coalition, Auggie Tantillo, stated “this surge of imports from China is just the tip of the iceberg. If history is any indication, Chinese imports will continue to soar until they gain a virtual monopoly of the U.S. market.”
Thomas J. Watson: “If you stand up and be counted, from time to time you may get yourself knocked down. But remember this: A man flattened by an opponent can get up again. A man flattened by conformity stays down for good.”
Despite many increases over the past year, the Fed Funds rate continues to trail the recent rate of inflation. The dollar did experience a short reprieve, but it now continues on its downward path. At the same time, the growth in global central bank holdings of U.S. Treasury and agency securities is decelerating. All the while, with a $700 billion trade deficit and a $400 billion budget gap and a puny 1% savings rate on the immediate horizon, one can expect the future news on hiring and economic growth to be disappointing. As always, there will be opportunities; however, they become scarcer and the more frequent risks will most often outweigh the rewards.
Large Layoff Notices
3/13/05 Large Layoff Notices
This past week the headlines centered on the price of oil, rising interest rates, rising commodity prices, the falling dollar, and the near-record trade deficit. There was no mention of devastating layoff notices. How is that possible? Not to worry, I’m here to bring the news.
Kin Hubbard: “You won’t skid if you stay in a rut.”
Recently, Boeing announced the sale of commercial aircraft operations in Wichita and Oklahoma to Onex. Workers were asked to sign waivers allowing release of their personnel information in order to be considered for new employment with Onex. In the meantime, 60-day notices went to 5,200 hourly and 2,900 salaried production workers in Wichita as well as an additional 1,200 workers at the Tulsa and McAlester, Okla. Plants. Onex did not commit to any specific hiring plans. Some of these 9,300 workers will be re-hired but a good number will face the unemployment lines.
Maya Lin: “To fly, we have to have reistance.”
The Murray lawnmower plant in Lawrenceburg, Tenn. will close and this will impact 1,200 hourly workers and 200 salaried workers. Production from Lawrenceburg is being transferred to Briggs and Stratton facilities. Murray filed for bankruptcy protection in November and sold most of its assets to Briggs and Stratton.
In January, U.S. Airways announced it would close its reservations center in Green Tree, PA. The airline promised that all of its 850 dislocated workers would be offered transfers to North Carolina. Now it appears that the promise will not be kept, and those jobs will be outsourced to other nations.
The U.S. eliminated apparel quotas on January 1, 2005. According to the Census Bureau, in the month of January, imports of men’s trousers rose 75% versus a year ago, and imports of women’s sleepwear and dresses rose 30% from January 2004. U.S. imports of women’s lingerie more than doubled and imports of men’s shirts nearly doubled. It will not take long for these cheaper imports to impact hundreds of thousands of U.S. apparel jobs, and many companies will be forced out of business. It has happened in several industries over the last five years. The executive director of the American Manufacturing Trade Action Coalition, Auggie Tantillo, stated “this surge of imports from China is just the tip of the iceberg. If history is any indication, Chinese imports will continue to soar until they gain a virtual monopoly of the U.S. market.”
Thomas J. Watson: “If you stand up and be counted, from time to time you may get yourself knocked down. But remember this: A man flattened by an opponent can get up again. A man flattened by conformity stays down for good.”
Despite many increases over the past year, the Fed Funds rate continues to trail the recent rate of inflation. The dollar did experience a short reprieve, but it now continues on its downward path. At the same time, the growth in global central bank holdings of U.S. Treasury and agency securities is decelerating. All the while, with a $700 billion trade deficit and a $400 billion budget gap and a puny 1% savings rate on the immediate horizon, one can expect the future news on hiring and economic growth to be disappointing. As always, there will be opportunities; however, they become scarcer and the more frequent risks will most often outweigh the rewards.
This past week the headlines centered on the price of oil, rising interest rates, rising commodity prices, the falling dollar, and the near-record trade deficit. There was no mention of devastating layoff notices. How is that possible? Not to worry, I’m here to bring the news.
Kin Hubbard: “You won’t skid if you stay in a rut.”
Recently, Boeing announced the sale of commercial aircraft operations in Wichita and Oklahoma to Onex. Workers were asked to sign waivers allowing release of their personnel information in order to be considered for new employment with Onex. In the meantime, 60-day notices went to 5,200 hourly and 2,900 salaried production workers in Wichita as well as an additional 1,200 workers at the Tulsa and McAlester, Okla. Plants. Onex did not commit to any specific hiring plans. Some of these 9,300 workers will be re-hired but a good number will face the unemployment lines.
Maya Lin: “To fly, we have to have reistance.”
The Murray lawnmower plant in Lawrenceburg, Tenn. will close and this will impact 1,200 hourly workers and 200 salaried workers. Production from Lawrenceburg is being transferred to Briggs and Stratton facilities. Murray filed for bankruptcy protection in November and sold most of its assets to Briggs and Stratton.
In January, U.S. Airways announced it would close its reservations center in Green Tree, PA. The airline promised that all of its 850 dislocated workers would be offered transfers to North Carolina. Now it appears that the promise will not be kept, and those jobs will be outsourced to other nations.
The U.S. eliminated apparel quotas on January 1, 2005. According to the Census Bureau, in the month of January, imports of men’s trousers rose 75% versus a year ago, and imports of women’s sleepwear and dresses rose 30% from January 2004. U.S. imports of women’s lingerie more than doubled and imports of men’s shirts nearly doubled. It will not take long for these cheaper imports to impact hundreds of thousands of U.S. apparel jobs, and many companies will be forced out of business. It has happened in several industries over the last five years. The executive director of the American Manufacturing Trade Action Coalition, Auggie Tantillo, stated “this surge of imports from China is just the tip of the iceberg. If history is any indication, Chinese imports will continue to soar until they gain a virtual monopoly of the U.S. market.”
Thomas J. Watson: “If you stand up and be counted, from time to time you may get yourself knocked down. But remember this: A man flattened by an opponent can get up again. A man flattened by conformity stays down for good.”
Despite many increases over the past year, the Fed Funds rate continues to trail the recent rate of inflation. The dollar did experience a short reprieve, but it now continues on its downward path. At the same time, the growth in global central bank holdings of U.S. Treasury and agency securities is decelerating. All the while, with a $700 billion trade deficit and a $400 billion budget gap and a puny 1% savings rate on the immediate horizon, one can expect the future news on hiring and economic growth to be disappointing. As always, there will be opportunities; however, they become scarcer and the more frequent risks will most often outweigh the rewards.
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